Mortality following unemployment during an economic downturn: Swedish register-based cohort study

Impact of COVID-19 Containment Measures on Unemployment: A Multi-country Analysis Using a Difference-in-Differences Framework

BACKGROUND

At the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, countries resorted to containment measures to stem the spread of the disease. In this paper, we have conducted a global study using a sample of 46 countries to evaluate whether these containment measures resulted in unemployment.

METHODS

We use a difference-in-differences (DID) specification with a heterogenous intervention to show the varying intensity effect of containment measures on unemployment, on a sample of 46 countries. We explain variations in unemployment from January-June 2020 using stringency of containment measures, controlling for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation rate, exports, cases of COVID-19 per million, COVID-19-specific fiscal spending, time fixed effects, region fixed effects, and region trends. We conduct further subset analyses by COVID-cases quintiles and gross national income (GNI) per capita quintiles.

RESULTS

The median level of containment stringency in our sample was 43.7. Our model found that increasing stringency to this level would result in unemployment increasing by 1.87 percentage points (or 1.67 pp, after controlling for confounding). For countries with below median COVID-19 cases and below median GNI per capita, this effect is larger.

CONCLUSION

Containment measures have a strong impact on unemployment. This effect is larger in poorer countries and countries with low COVID-19 cases. Given that unemployment has profound effects on mortality and morbidity, this consequence of containment measures may compound the adverse health effects of the pandemic for the most vulnerable groups. It is necessary for governments to consider this in future pandemic management, and to attempt to alleviate the impact of containment measures via effective fiscal spending.

Understanding the effect of retirement on health behaviors in China: Causality, heterogeneity and time-varying effect

Retirement is an important turning point during the course of life, but few studies have examined the effects of retirement on a broad range of health behaviors in China. We use the longitudinal data of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 2004 to 2015 to conduct empirical analysis. Fuzzy discontinuity regression was used to assess the association between retirement and health behaviors in the entire sample and subgroups based on gender and education. A time-varying effect model was used to measure the anticipatory effect, immediate effect and lag effect of retirement. We observed that the transition to retirement was associated with healthier lifestyle habits, such as reduced smoking and alcohol consumption and increased exercise motivation. However, the transition was associated with worse sedentary behavior. No significant statistical association was found between retirement and sleep duration. Men and those with higher education levels are more likely to experience the impact of retirement. The anticipatory effect suggests that as the statutory pension age is predictable, workers adjust their behaviors 4 and 5 years before retirement. The lagged effect indicates that it takes time to develop new habits; thus, retirees change their behaviors 2-3 years after retirement. The paper discusses possible reasons for our findings and proposes several policy implications from the perspectives of the government and society to facilitate the realization of healthy aging.

Experiences of involuntary job loss and health during the economic crisis in Portugal

Background:

The economic recession that started in 2008 left many unemployed across several European countries. Many studies have analyzed the relationship between job loss, health, and well-being in other contexts. This study aimed to explore experiences of involuntary unemployment during the economic recession and their relationship with health, conceptualized as a state of physical, mental, and social well-being among unemployed individuals.

Methods:

Semistructured qualitative interviews were carried out among a convenience sample of participants who became unemployed during the economic recession. The analysis was conducted to identify patterns and themes.

Results:

Participants (n = 22; 8 men and 14 women; 23–51 years) experienced feelings of loss of identity, stress, and a sense of powerlessness due to unemployment, as well as a lack of purpose and structure in their daily lives. Six themes were identified: work as the basis for life structure and personal fulfillment; response to unemployment and the importance of its duration; unemployment leading to isolation and loss of a role in society; impact of a change in financial situation on social life and consumption patterns; the physical and psychological health consequences of unemployment; and searching for ways to cope with unemployment and to feel well.

Conclusions:

Losing a job is an adverse experience that impairs an individual's perception of overall health and well-being. From a public health perspective, the results of this study highlight the need for policymakers’ awareness to help mitigate the potential consequences of involuntary job loss in the short- and long-term.

Interventions to suppress the coronavirus pandemic will increase unemployment and lead to many premature deaths

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Interventions to suppress the coronavirus pandemic have led to economic recession and higher unemployment, which will increase mortality and decrease quality of life. The aim of this article is to estimate the consequences on mortality and life expectancy of increased unemployment rates due to the coronavirus pandemic in Sweden and other countries.

METHODS

Based on recent increases and expected future unemployment rates due to the coronavirus pandemic, results from a systematic review and data from vital statistics in Sweden, the number of premature deaths due to unemployment in Sweden have been estimated.

RESULTS

Based on our assumptions, the calculations show that if the number of unemployed persons in Sweden increases by 100,000, one may expect some 1800 more premature deaths during the following 9 years. If the duration of the recession is limited to 4 years, excess deaths due to unemployment may be around 800. On average, the unemployed will lose 2 years of their remaining life expectancy. In many other countries unemployment rates have or are estimated to rise more than in Sweden, sometimes two- or threefold, suggesting hundreds of thousands of excess deaths due to unemployment.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions to suppress the coronavirus pandemic include the shut-down of economic activities and lead to increased all-cause mortality. These public health effects must be considered in the decision-making process and should be added to overall estimates of the effects of the pandemic on public health.

On the moderation of the relation between overeducation and depressive symptoms through labor market and macro-economic factors

Empirical research has consistently shown that overeducation is positively associated with depressive symptoms. However, little is known about the cross-national variation of this association. This study investigates the issue by examining how macro-economic factors and labor-market policies moderate the link between two objective measures of overeducation (the realized-matches and job-analyst methods) and depressive symptoms. Analysis is based on individual-level data from the European Social Survey, Rounds 3, 6, and 7 (N = 51,054). Results from 20 countries, based on a sample of respondents between the ages of 20 and 65 years, indicate that higher unemployment rates are the primary factor strengthening the relationship between overeducation and depressive symptoms. The realized-matches method reveals one important exception for women. This exception is reported and discussed in light of the literature on gender discrimination. Our results provide no evidence that labor-market policies (unemployment benefits and employment-protection legislation) have any impact on the relationship under study.

Stress Resilience in Late Adolescence and Survival among Cancer Patients: A Swedish Register-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Chronic stress has been suggested to play a role in cancer progression, but few studies have so far examined the potential influence of stress susceptibility. This national register-based cohort study utilizes a unique data source to investigate whether a stress resilience measure is associated with survival in cancer patients.

METHODS

The cohort includes 9,318 Swedish male cancer patients born during 1952 to 1956 who had their stress resilience evaluated at a semistructured interview with a psychologist during mandatory conscription examination in late adolescence.

RESULTS

Over a median of 3 years of follow-up from cancer diagnosis, a total of 2,541 patients died (2,322 from cancer). Overall, low (23%) compared with high (25%) stress resilience was associated with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio estimated by Cox regression 1.45; 95% confidence interval 1.28-1.65), particularly among men with carcinomas of the oropharynx (2.62, 1.24-5.56), upper respiratory tract (4.64, 1.05-20.41), and prostate (2.20, 1.04-4.62), as well as with Hodgkin lymphoma (3.52, 1.40-8.86). An association was evident for both cancer types associated with smoking (1.35, 1.10-1.66) and malignancies without an established smoking etiology (1.32, 1.12-1.56). The association between low stress resilience and mortality could partly be explained by tumor stage, marital status, and psychiatric comorbidity at cancer diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed an association between low stress resilience and mortality among men diagnosed with cancer, particularly oropharyngeal cancer, upper respiratory tract cancers, prostate cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma.

IMPACT

These results suggest that individual variation in stress resilience may influence survival among men with some cancer types.

Employment status and mortality in the context of high and low regional unemployment levels in Belgium (2001-2011): A test of the social norm hypothesis across educational levels

Because of compositional effects (more highly educated unemployed) and differences in the vulnerability towards the health consequences of unemployment (i.e. disappointment paradox hypothesis and/or status inconsistency for highly educated unemployed), it is argued that indicators of educational attainment need to be included when investigating the social norm of unemployment. Data from the 2001 census linked to register data from 2001-2011 are used, selecting all Belgian employed and unemployed between 30 and 59-year-old at time of the census. Poisson multilevel modelling was used to account for clustering of respondents within sub-districts. For individuals with low education levels, the relative difference in mortality rate ratios between the unemployed and employed is smallest in those regions where aggregate unemployment levels are high. For highly educated, this social norm effect was not found. This study suggest that the social norm effect is stronger for workers with low education levels, while highly educated workers suffer from disappointment and status inconsistency.

Acne in late adolescence is not associated with a raised risk of subsequent malignant melanoma among men

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the association of acne in late adolescence with the risk for subsequent malignant melanoma (MM) in men.

METHODS

Swedish register-based cohort study of 242,096 males born between 1952 and 1956, who took part in compulsory assessments for Swedish military conscription in late adolescence between 1969 and 1975, with subsequent diagnoses of MM (n=1,058) up to December 31, 2009. Covariates included measures of childhood circumstances and information from adolescence on presence of acne, physical fitness, cognitive function, body mass index (BMI), and a summary of diagnoses. Cox regression was used for the analysis.

RESULTS

In total 1,058 men were diagnosed with MM. Acne was not associated with subsequent MM, with an adjusted hazard ratio (and 95% confidence interval) of 0.95 (0.61 to 1.49). Men with parents who were agricultural workers, and men who lived in northern Sweden, had lower physical fitness, or lower cognitive function had a lower risk of MM. Overweight and obesity was associated with a raised risk, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.39 (1.14, 1.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Acne in late adolescence is unlikely to represent a raised risk for subsequent MM in men. Overweight or obesity was identified as a raised risk for MM, possibly due to the associated increased skin surface area.

Job displacement and social safety net on depressive symptoms in individuals aged 45 years or above: findings from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the unemployment experience and depressive symptoms among mid-aged (ages 45–59) and elderly (ages 60 or above) persons and to examine further the effects of unemployment insurance, industrial accident compensation insurance (IACI) and national pension on the stated relationship. Data were used from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) between 2006 and 2012. A total of 1,536 individuals employed at the 2006 baseline were followed. The association between employment status change during 2006 to 2008, 2008 to 2010 or 2010 to 2012 and depressive symptoms in years 2008, 2010 or 2012 were analysed using a generalised estimating equation model. Depressive symptoms were measured with the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D 10) scale. The results showed that the ‘employed to unemployed’ group had statistically significant increases in depression scores in the mid-aged (β = 0.4884,p= 0.0038) and elderly (β = 0.8275,p⩽ 0.0001) categories, compared to the ‘employed to employed’ group. Findings were maintained in groups without a social safety net. Contrastingly, the ‘employed to unemployed’ groups with unemployment insurance and IACI did not show statistically significant increases in depression scores. The ‘employed to unemployed’ category of individuals enrolled in the national pension system exhibited a lower increase of depression. Therefore, an enhanced focus on the mental health of unemployed individuals is required, in addition to the provision of a reliable social safety net.

Adolescent body mass index and erythrocyte sedimentation rate in relation to colorectal cancer risk

OBJECTIVE

Adult obesity and inflammation have been associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC); however, less is known about how adolescent body mass index (BMI) and inflammation, as measured by erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), relate to CRC risk. We sought to evaluate these associations in a cohort of 239 658 Swedish men who underwent compulsory military enlistment examinations in late adolescence (ages 16-20 years).

DESIGN

At the time of the conscription assessment (1969-1976), height and weight were measured and ESR was assayed. By linkage to the national cancer registry, these conscripts were followed for CRC through 1 January 2010. Over an average of 35 years of follow-up, 885 cases of CRC occurred, including 501 colon cancers and 384 rectal cancers. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted HRs and corresponding 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Compared with normal weight (BMI 18.5 to <25 kg/m(2)) in late adolescence, upper overweight (BMI 27.5 to <30 kg/m(2)) was associated with a 2.08-fold higher risk of CRC (95% CI 1.40 to 3.07) and obesity (BMI 30+ kg/m(2)) was associated with a 2.38-fold higher risk of CRC (95% CI 1.51 to 3.76) (p-trend: <0.001). Male adolescents with ESR (15+ mm/h) had a 63% higher risk of CRC (HR 1.63; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.45) than those with low ESR (<10 mm/h) (p-trend: 0.006). Associations did not significantly differ by anatomic site.

CONCLUSIONS

Late-adolescent BMI and inflammation, as measured by ESR, may be independently associated with future CRC risk. Further research is needed to better understand how early-life exposures relate to CRC.

A Long-term Study of the Association between the Relative Poverty Rate and Suicide Rate in Japan

The annual number of suicides in Japan totaled around 23,000 in 1997 and abruptly increased to around 31,000 in 1998. This figure has remained high since then. This abrupt increase in the number of suicides was primarily due to an increase in suicides occasioned by economic concerns. The association between various economic factors and suicide must be studied in detail and over the long term in order to ascertain the association between economic concerns and suicide. This study examined the relative poverty rate and the suicide rate in Japan over 30 years and discussed the association between those two rates. The results suggest that the relative poverty rate may be associated with the suicide rate for both sexes. This association is true for men in particular. The organizations and professionals involved in implementing suicide prevention measures should be cognizant of the current findings and consider formulating additional specific measures.

Health inequalities after austerity in Greece

Since the beginning of economic crisis, Greece has been experiencing unprecedented levels of unemployment and profound cuts to public budgets. Health and welfare sectors were subject to severe austerity measures, which have endangered provision of as well as access to services, potentially widening health inequality gap. European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data show that the proportion of individuals on low incomes reporting unmet medical need due to cost doubled from 7 % in 2008 to 13.9 % in 2013, while the relative gap in access to care between the richest and poorest population groups increased almost ten-fold. In addition, austerity cuts have affected other vulnerable groups, such as undocumented migrants and injecting drug users. Steps have been taken in attempt to mitigate the impact of the austerity, however addressing the growing health inequality gap will require persistent effort of the country’s leadership for years to come.

Nonpsychotic Mental Disorders in Teenage Males and Risk of Early Stroke: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Although the incidence of stroke is on the decline worldwide, this is not the case for early stroke. We aimed to determine whether nonpsychotic mental disorder at the age of 18 years is a risk factor for early stroke, and if adolescent cardiovascular fitness and intelligence quotient might attenuate the risk.

METHOD

Population-based Swedish cohort study of conscripts (n=1 163 845) who enlisted during 1968 to 2005. At conscription, 45 064 males were diagnosed with nonpsychotic mental disorder. Risk of stroke during follow-up (5-42 years) was calculated with Cox proportional hazards models. Objective baseline measures of fitness and cognition were included in the models in a second set of analyses.

RESULTS

There were 7770 first-time stroke events. In adjusted models, increased risk for stroke was observed in men diagnosed with depressive/neurotic disorders (hazard ratio [HR], 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.37), personality disorders (HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.29-1.78), and alcohol/substance use disorders (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.41-1.83) at conscription. Corresponding figures for fatal stroke were HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.79; HR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.60 to 3.19; and HR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.63 to 2.96. HRs for stroke were attenuated when fitness level and intelligence quotient were introduced. Associations remained significant for personality disorders and alcohol/substance use in the fully adjusted models. The interaction term was statistically significant for fitness but not for intelligence quotient.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that fitness may modify associations between nonpsychotic disorders and stroke. It remains to be clarified whether interventions designed to improve fitness in mentally ill youth can influence future risk of early stroke.

Education and Mortality in the Rome Longitudinal Study

Background

A large body of evidence supports an inverse association between socioeconomic status and mortality. We analysed data from a large cohort of residents in Rome followed-up between 2001 and 2012 to assess the relationship between individual education and mortality. We distinguished five causes of death and investigated the role of age, gender, and birthplace.

Methods

From the Municipal Register we enrolled residents of Rome on October 21^st 2001 and collected information on educational level attained from the 2001 Census. We selected Italian citizens aged 30–74 years and followed-up their vital status until 2012 (n = 1,283,767), identifying the cause of death from the Regional Mortality Registry. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for overall and cause-specific mortality in relation to education. We used age, gender, and birthplace for adjusted or stratified analyses. We used the inverse probability weighting approach to account for right censoring due to emigration.

Results

We observed an inverse association between education (none vs. post-secondary+ level) and overall mortality (HRs(95%CIs): 2.1(1.98–2.17), males; 1.5(1.46–1.59), females) varying according to demographic characteristics. Cause-specific analysis also indicated an inverse association with education, in particular for respiratory, digestive or circulatory system related-mortality, and the youngest people seemed to be more vulnerable to low education.

Conclusion

Our results confirm the inverse association between education and overall or cause-specific mortality and show differentials particularly marked among young people compared to the elderly. The findings provide further evidence from the Mediterranean area, and may contribute to national and cross-country comparisons in Europe to understand the mechanisms generating socioeconomic differentials especially during the current recession period.

Job-loss and weight gain in British adults: Evidence from two longitudinal studies

Overweight and obesity have been associated with unemployment but less is known about changes in weight associated with changes in employment. We examined weight changes associated with job-loss, retirement and maintaining employment in two samples of working adults in the United Kingdom. This was a prospective study of 7201 adults in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study (aged 39–76 years) and 4539 adults in the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) who were followed up over 43 months and 26 months, respectively. In both samples, changes in measured (EPIC) and self-reported (BHPS) weight were computed for each participant and assessed in relation to three employment transitions: maintaining paid employment, retirement and job-loss. Regression models adjusted for potential confounders. Further analyses evaluated the contribution of diet, physical activity and smoking to weight gain. In EPIC-Norfolk, weight change differed across the three employment transitions for women but not men. The mean (95% CI) annualised change in weight for women who became unemployed over the follow-up period was 0.70 (0.55, 0.85) kg/y while those who maintained employment gained 0.49 (0.43, 0.55) kg/y (P = 0.007). Accounting for changes in smoking, diet and physical activity did not substantially alter the difference in weight gain among groups. In BHPS, job-loss was associated with weight gain of 1.56 (0.89, 2.23) kg/y, while those who maintained employment 0.60 (0.53, 0.68) kg/y (P < 0.001). In both samples, weight changes associated with retirement were similar to those staying in work. In BHPS, job-loss was also associated with significant declines in self-reported well-being and increases in sleep-loss.

Two UK-based samples of working adults reveal strong associations between job-loss and excess weight gain. The mediating behaviours are so far unclear but psychosocial mechanisms and sleep-loss may contribute to the excess weight gain among individuals who become unemployed.

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Job-loss is associated with a more weight gain in working UK adults.

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The association between job-loss and weight may be stronger for women.

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Changes in smoking, diet and physical activity did not explain weight gain.

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Job-loss is associated with loss of sleep due to worry.

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Behavioural and psychosocial impacts of job-loss need further elucidation.

Decreased stress resilience in young men significantly increases the risk of subsequent peptic ulcer disease - a prospective study of 233 093 men in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Psychosocial stress may influence peptic ulcer disease (PUD) risk, but it can be difficult to identify reliably whether stressful exposures pre-dated disease. The association of stress resilience (susceptibility to stress) with subsequent PUD risk has been incompletely investigated.

AIM

To assess if stress resilience in adolescence is associated with subsequent PUD risk.

METHODS

The participants comprised of 233 093 men resident in Sweden, born 1952-1956 and assessed for compulsory military conscription during 1969-1976, with data provided by national Swedish registers. Stress resilience was evaluated through semi-structured interviews by a certified psychologist. Cox regression assessed the association between stress resilience in adolescence and the risk of PUD from 1985 to 2009, between ages 28 and 57 years, with adjustment for parental socioeconomic index, household crowding and number of siblings in childhood, as well as cognitive function and erythrocyte sedimentation rate in adolescence.

RESULTS

In total, 2259 first PUD diagnoses were identified. Lower stress resilience in adolescence is associated with a higher risk of PUD in subsequent adulthood: compared with high resilience, the adjusted hazard ratios (and 95% CI) are 1.84 (1.61-2.10) and 1.23 (1.09-1.38) for low and moderate stress resilience, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Stress may be implicated in the aetiology of PUD and low stress resilience is a marker of risk.

A systematic review on health resilience to economic crises

BACKGROUND

The health effects of recent economic crises differ markedly by population group. The objective of this systematic review is to examine evidence from longitudinal studies on factors influencing resilience for any health outcome or health behaviour among the general population living in countries exposed to financial crises.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies from six electronic databases (EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science) which used quantitative longitudinal study designs and included: (i) exposure to an economic crisis; (ii) changes in health outcomes/behaviours over time; (iii) statistical tests of associations of health risk and/or protective factors with health outcomes/behaviours. The quality of the selected studies was appraised using the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. PRISMA reporting guidelines were followed.

RESULTS

From 14,584 retrieved records, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies were conducted across 10 countries in Asia, Europe and North America over the past two decades. Ten socio-demographic factors that increased or protected against health risk were identified: gender, age, education, marital status, household size, employment/occupation, income/ financial constraints, personal beliefs, health status, area of residence, and social relations. These studies addressed physical health, mortality, suicide and suicide attempts, mental health, and health behaviours. Women's mental health appeared more susceptible to crises than men's. Lower income levels were associated with greater increases in cardiovascular disease, mortality and worse mental health. Employment status was associated with changes in mental health. Associations with age, marital status, and education were less consistent, although higher education was associated with healthier behaviours.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite widespread rhetoric about the importance of resilience, there was a dearth of studies which operationalised resilience factors. Future conceptual and empirical research is needed to develop the epidemiology of resilience.

Stress resilience and physical fitness in adolescence and risk of coronary heart disease in middle age

Objective

Psychosocial stress is a suggested risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). The relationship of stress resilience in adolescence with subsequent CHD risk is underinvestigated, so our objective was to assess this and investigate the possible mediating role of physical fitness.

Methods

In this register-based study, 237 980 men born between 1952 and 1956 were followed from 1987 to 2010 using information from Swedish registers. Stress resilience was measured at a compulsory military conscription examination using a semistructured interview with a psychologist. Some 10 581 diagnoses of CHD were identified. Cox regression estimated the association of stress resilience with CHD, with adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

Low-stress resilience was associated with increased CHD risk. The association remained after adjustment for physical fitness and other potential confounding and mediating factors, with adjusted HRs (and 95% CIs) of 1.17 (1.10 to 1.25), with some evidence of mediation by physical fitness. CHD incidence rates per 1000 person-years (and 95% CIs) for low-stress, medium-stress and high-stress resilience were 2.61 (2.52 to 2.70), 1.97 (1.92 to 2.03) and 1.59 (1.53 to 1.67) respectively. Higher physical fitness was inversely associated with CHD risk; however, this was attenuated by low-stress resilience, shown by interaction testing (p<0.001).

Conclusions

Low-stress resilience in adolescence was associated with increased risk of CHD in middle age and may diminish the benefit of physical fitness. This represents new evidence of the role of stress resilience in determining risk of CHD and its interrelationship with physical fitness.

A systematic review on health resilience to economic crises

BACKGROUND

The health effects of recent economic crises differ markedly by population group. The objective of this systematic review is to examine evidence from longitudinal studies on factors influencing resilience for any health outcome or health behaviour among the general population living in countries exposed to financial crises.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies from six electronic databases (EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science) which used quantitative longitudinal study designs and included: (i) exposure to an economic crisis; (ii) changes in health outcomes/behaviours over time; (iii) statistical tests of associations of health risk and/or protective factors with health outcomes/behaviours. The quality of the selected studies was appraised using the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. PRISMA reporting guidelines were followed.

RESULTS

From 14,584 retrieved records, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies were conducted across 10 countries in Asia, Europe and North America over the past two decades. Ten socio-demographic factors that increased or protected against health risk were identified: gender, age, education, marital status, household size, employment/occupation, income/ financial constraints, personal beliefs, health status, area of residence, and social relations. These studies addressed physical health, mortality, suicide and suicide attempts, mental health, and health behaviours. Women's mental health appeared more susceptible to crises than men's. Lower income levels were associated with greater increases in cardiovascular disease, mortality and worse mental health. Employment status was associated with changes in mental health. Associations with age, marital status, and education were less consistent, although higher education was associated with healthier behaviours.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite widespread rhetoric about the importance of resilience, there was a dearth of studies which operationalised resilience factors. Future conceptual and empirical research is needed to develop the epidemiology of resilience.

Stress resilience in male adolescents and subsequent stroke risk: cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Exposure to psychosocial stress has been identified as a possible stroke risk, but the role of stress resilience which may be relevant to chronic exposure is uncertain. We investigated the association of stress resilience in adolescence with subsequent stroke risk.

METHODS

Register-based cohort study. Some 237 879 males born between 1952 and 1956 were followed from 1987 to 2010 using information from Swedish registers. Cox regression estimated the association of stress resilience with stroke, after adjustment for established stroke risk factors.

RESULTS

Some 3411 diagnoses of first stroke were identified. Lowest stress resilience (21.8%) compared with the highest (23.7%) was associated with increased stroke risk, producing unadjusted HR (with 95% CIs) of 1.54 (1.40 to 1.70). The association attenuated slightly to 1.48 (1.34 to 1.63) after adjustment for markers of socioeconomic circumstances in childhood; and after further adjustment for markers of development and disease in adolescence (blood pressure, cognitive function and pre-existing cardiovascular disease) to 1.30 (1.18 to 1.45). The greatest reduction followed further adjustment for markers of physical fitness (BMI and physical working capacity) in adolescence to 1.16 (1.04 to 1.29). The results were consistent when stroke was subdivided into fatal, ischaemic and haemorrhagic, with higher magnitude associations for fatal rather than non-fatal, and for haemorrhagic rather than ischaemic stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Stress susceptibility and, therefore, psychosocial stress may be implicated in the aetiology of stroke. This association may be explained, in part, by poorer physical fitness. Effective prevention might focus on behaviour/lifestyle and psychosocial stress.

Do employment protection policies reduce the relative disadvantage in the labour market experienced by unhealthy people? A natural experiment created by the Great Recession in Europe

Unhealthy persons are more likely to lose their jobs than those who are healthy but whether this is affected by recession is unclear. We asked how healthy and unhealthy persons fared in labour markets during Europe's 2008-2010 recessions and whether national differences in employment protection helped mitigate any relative disadvantage experienced by those in poor health. Two retrospective cohorts of persons employed at baseline were constructed from the European Statistics of Income and Living Conditions in 26 EU countries. The first comprised individuals followed between 2006 and 2008, n = 46,085 (pre-recession) and the second between 2008 and 2010, n = 85,786 (during recession). We used multi-level (individual- and country-fixed effects) logistic regression models to assess the relationship (overall and disaggregated by gender) between recessions, unemployment, and health status, as well as any modifying effect of OECD employment protection indices measuring the strength of policies against dismissal and redundancy. Those with chronic illnesses and health limitations were disproportionately affected by the recession, respectively with a 1.5- and 2.5-fold greater risk of unemployment than healthy people during 2008-2010. During severe recessions (>7% fall in GDP), employment protections did not mitigate the risk of job loss (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.94-1.21). However, in countries experiencing milder recessions (<7% fall in GDP), each additional unit of employment protection reduced job loss risk (OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.58-0.90). Before the recession, women with severe health limitations especially benefited, with additional reductions of 22% for each unit of employment protection (AORfemale = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62-0.97), such that at high levels the difference in the risk of job loss between healthy and unhealthy women disappeared. Employment protection policies may counteract labour market inequalities between healthy and unhealthy people, but additional programmes are likely needed to protect vulnerable groups during severe recessions.

Economic crisis and suicidal behaviour: the role of unemployment, sex and age in Andalusia, southern Spain

INTRODUCTION

Although suicide rates have increased in some European countries in relation to the current economic crisis and austerity policies, that trend has not been observed in Spain. This study examines the impact of the economic crisis on suicide attempts, the previously neglected endpoint of the suicidal process, and its relation to unemployment, age and sex.

METHODS

The study was carried out in Andalusia, the most populated region of Spain, and which has a high level of unemployment. Information on suicide attempts attended by emergency services was extracted from the Health Emergencies Public Enterprise Information System (SIEPES). Suicide attempts occurring between 2003 and 2012 were included, in order to cover five years prior to the crisis (2003-2007) and five years after its onset (2008-2012). Information was retrieved from 24,380 cases (11,494 men and 12,886 women) on sex, age, address, and type of attention provided. Age-adjusted suicide attempt rates were calculated. Excess numbers of attempts from 2008 to 2012 were estimated for each sex using historical trends of the five previous years, through time regression models using negative binomial regression analysis. To assess the association between unemployment and suicide attempts rates, linear regression models with fixed effects were performed.

RESULTS

A sharp increase in suicide attempt rates in Andalusia was detected after the onset of the crisis, both in men and in women. Adults aged 35 to 54 years were the most affected in both sexes. Suicide attempt rates were associated with unemployment rates in men, accounting for almost half of the cases during the five initial years of the crisis. Women were also affected during the recession period but this association could not be specifically attributed to unemployment.

CONCLUSIONS

This study enhances our understanding of the potential effects of the economic crisis on the rapidly increasing suicide attempt rates in women and men, and the association of unemployment with growing suicidal behaviour in men. Research on the suicide effects of the economic crisis may need to take into account earlier stages of the suicidal process, and that this effect may differ by age and sex.