State-specific, racial and ethnic heterogeneity in trends of firearm-related fatality rates in the USA from 2000 to 2010

Firearm injury hospitalizations and handgun purchaser licensing laws: longitudinal evaluation of state-level purchaser licensure requirements on firearm violence, 2000-2016

BACKGROUND

Handgun purchaser licensing (HPL) laws mandate individuals to obtain a license from law enforcement before buying a firearm. Research indicates these laws effectively reduce various forms of fatal firearm violence, including homicides, suicides, and mass shootings. Our study sought to assess the impact of HPL laws on non-fatal firearm violence.

METHODS

Utilizing the augmented synthetic control method (ASCM), we estimated the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) resulting from a full repeal of an HPL law in Missouri (2007), a partial repeal in Michigan (2012), and an adoption on HPL law in Maryland (2013) on firearm injury hospitalizations. We utilized RAND's healthcare cost and utilization project-based dataset from 2000 to 2016 for our outcome variable. We conducted in-time placebo testing and leave-one-out donor pool testing as sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Maryland's adoption was associated with a statistically significant 32.3% reduction in firearm-related injury hospitalization (FIH) rates (ATT = - 0.497, standard error (SE) = 0.123); Missouri's repeal was associated with a statistically significant 35.7% increase in FIH rates (ASCM = 0.456, SE = 0.155); and Michigan's partial repeal showed no statistically significant associations with FIH rates (ATT = - 0.074, SE = 0.129). Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of the estimated HPL effects.

DISCUSSION

HPL laws appear to be protective against hospitalizations for nonfatal firearm injuries. These findings align with prior research indicating that HPL laws are effective in reducing fatal firearm violence. States without such licensing systems ought to consider these robust policies as a means to address firearm violence.

Nearly 20 Years Since the Federal Ban: Can State-Level Assault Weapon Prohibitions Fill the Void? Comparative Analysis of Case Fatality and Assault Weapon Recovery in States With and Without an Assault Weapon Ban

INTRODUCTION

Few states established assault weapon bans (AWBs) after the federal AWB expired. The effectiveness of state AWBs as well as neighboring state legislation, in reducing the local prevalence of assault weapons (AWs) or in reducing overall shooting lethality is unknown.

METHODS

We queried the Gun Violence Archive (2014-2021) to identify US firearm injuries and fatalities. Shooting case fatality rates were compared among states with and without AWBs, as reported in the State Firearm Laws Database. Data on recovered firearms was obtained from the ATF Firearms Trace Database and used to estimate weapon prevalence. Recovered firearms were classified as AWs based on caliber (7.62 mm, 5.56 mm, 0.223 cal). We performed spatially weighted linear regression models, with fixed effects for state and year to assess the association between geographically clustered state legislation and firearm outcomes.

RESULTS

From 2014 to 2021, the US shooting victim case fatality rate was 8.06% and did not differ among states with and without AWBs. The proportion of AWs to total firearms was 5.0% in states without an AWB and 6.0% in states with an AWB (mean difference [95% CI] = -0.8% [-1.6% to -0.2%], P = 0.03). Most recovered firearms in AWB states originated from non-AWB states. On adjusted models, there was no association between state-level AWB and firearm case fatality; however, adjacency to states with an AWB was associated with lower case fatality (P < 0.001). Clustered AWB states with shared borders had lower AW prevalence and fatality rates than the rest of the US.

CONCLUSIONS

Isolated state AWBs are not inversely associated with shooting case fatality rates nor the prevalence of AWs, but AWBs among multiple neighboring states may be associated with both outcomes.

The Cost of Gunshot Wounds to the Head: An Unevenly Distributed Burden

BACKGROUND

Despite the significant clinical consequences and socioeconomic costs of gunshot wounds to the head (GSWH), studies examining prehospital risk factors, geospatial patterns, and economic cost are lacking.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed for patients with GSWH (single or multiple injuries) presenting to the level one Ryder Trauma Center (hospital patients) as well as the Miami-Dade County Medical Examiner (ME) Department, from October 2013 to October 2015. In addition, ME data were queried from the previous decade (2008-2017) to analyze longitudinal trends.

RESULTS

A total of 402 consecutive patients met the inclusion criteria: 297 (74%) presented to the ME and 105 (26%) presented to the hospital. GSWH in our cohort had a case fatality rate of 89%, predominantly affecting males, whites, and individuals who committed suicide, with a mean age of 41.9 ± 20.6 years. Hospital patients were more likely to be black males from low socioeconomic status (SES) regions involved in assault. Older white males were overrepresented in patients attempting and completing suicide and thus comprised a higher percentage of ME cases. Geospatial analysis of hospital patient injury zip codes shows that GSWH are significantly clustered in low-income urban centers with greater poverty rates. In Miami-Dade County, the economic burden of GSWH, as measured by total health care costs and lifetime productivity losses, was estimated to be $11,867,415 and $246,179,498, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In the first analysis of GSWH with the inclusion of both hospital and ME data in a representative urban setting, our findings show prehospital risk factors and the unequal distribution of the significant economic costs of GSWH.

Impact of Changes to Concealed-Carry Weapons Laws on Fatal and Nonfatal Violent Crime, 1980-2019

The United States faces rapidly rising rates of violent crime committed with firearms. In this study, we sought to estimate the impact of changes to laws that regulate the concealed carrying of weapons (concealed-carry weapons (CCW) laws) on violent crimes committed with a firearm. We used augmented synthetic control models and random-effects meta-analyses to estimate state-specific effects and the average effect of adopting shall-issue CCW permitting laws on rates of 6 violent crimes: homicide with a gun, homicide by other means, aggravated assault with a gun, aggravated assault with a knife, robbery with a gun, and robbery with a knife. The average effects were stratified according to the presence or absence of several shall-issue permit provisions. Adoption of a shall-issue CCW law was associated with a 9.5% increase in rates of assault with a firearm during the first 10 years after law adoption and was associated with an 8.8% increase in rates of homicide by other means. When shall-issue laws allowed violent misdemeanants to acquire CCW permits, the laws were associated with higher rates of gun assaults. It is likely that adoption of shall-issue CCW laws has increased rates of nonfatal violent crime committed with firearms. Harmful effects of shall-issue laws are most clear when provisions intended to reduce risks associated with civilian gun-carrying are absent.

Gunshot casualties in Israel: A decade of violence

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to identify and characterize casualties hospitalized with assault (non-terror) related gunshot wounds (GSW) in Israel as a basis for determining the incidence, trends and at-risk population groups.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study is based on data from the Israel National Trauma Registry. The data includes GSW casualties hospitalized between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2020. Attempted suicide, unintentional injury, legal intervention, children (ages 0-9) and terror (Israeli-Arab conflict) related GSW were excluded. The remaining population was classified with an ICD-9-CM diagnosis code of 965.0-965.4.

RESULTS

The study population included 2,763 GSW admissions. A noticeable increase in GSW casualties was reported, from 206 hospitalization in 2011 to 456 in 2020. The proportion of Arab casualties increased from 73.3% of all GSW casualties in 2011 to 90.8% in 2020, far more than their proportion in the population (∼20%). The majority of the GSW casualties were males (95.8%) and between the ages of 20 and 29 (42.2%). Among severe/critical casualties, 19% of Arabs and 9.9% of Jews arrived by private car. Severe thoracic and abdominal injuries were the prominent injuries among fatal casualties (47.6 and 40.8, respectively). While the all-severity mortality rate was 5.6% (n = 147), 24.4% (n = 135) of severe/critical (ISS16+) casualties died, with no significant differences between Jews and Arabs. Forty percent of deaths occurred in the emergency department.

CONCLUSIONS

This study establishes that during the past decade in Israel, not only has there been a continuous increase in hospitalizations due to GSW, but also Arabs are at great risk of such related hospitalizations. Preventive strategies targeting at-risk groups are crucial for minimizing morbidity and mortality related to GSW in Israel.

Gunshot wounds sustained during legal intervention versus those inflicted by civilians: A comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

Existing data demonstrate that injuries sustained during legal intervention (LI) differ from those incurred during civilian interpersonal violence (CIV), but gunshot wounds (GSWs) have not yet been specifically examined. This study was undertaken to provide an in-depth analysis of patients shot during LI versus CIV.

METHODS

Patients injured by GSW and captured by the National Trauma Data Bank (2007-2017) were included. Exclusions were transfer from outside hospital or self-inflicted, accidental, or undetermined injury intent GSWs. Study groups were defined by injury circumstances: GSWs sustained during LI versus CIV. Univariable analysis compared demographics, clinical/injury data, and outcomes.

RESULTS

In total, 248,726 patients met inclusion/exclusion criteria: 98% (n = 243,150) CIV versus 2% (n = 5,576) LI. Race varied significantly between study groups (p < 0.001). White patients were the most commonly injured race after LI (n = 2,176, 39%). Black patients were the most commonly injured race after CIV (n = 139,067, 57%). Psychiatric disease (9% vs. 2%, p < 0.001) was more common among LI GSWs. The LI patients were more frequently tachycardic (18% vs. 13%, p < 0.001), hypotensive (26% vs. 14%, p < 0.001), and comatose (34% vs. 15%, p < 0.001). The LI patients had higher Injury Severity Scores (13 vs. 9, p < 0.001), required emergent surgical intervention (39% vs. 28%, p < 0.001) and intensive care unit admission (47% vs. 32%, p < 0.001) more often, and had longer hospital stay (4 vs. 3 days, p < 0.001). Mortality was higher after LI (27% vs. 14%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Significant racial and injury severity differences exist between patients shot during LI and CIV. White patients were the most commonly injured race after LI, while Black patients were the most commonly injured race during CIV. In addition, Black patients were overrepresented in both groups when compared with their proportion in the US population. LI patients were more significantly injured, as quantified by clinical, injury, and outcomes variables including increased mortality. Further study of patients shot during LI is needed to better understand this increased burden of injury.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and epidemiological, level IV.

Pediatric firearm-associated fractures: Analysis of management and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Firearm-associated injuries (FAIs) are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in children living in the United States. Most victims of such injuries survive, but may experience compromised function related to musculoskeletal injuries. Although complex firearm-associated fractures (FAFs) often require specialized orthopaedic, vascular, and plastic surgical intervention, there is minimal research describing their management and outcomes. The purpose of this study is to describe the epidemiology and presentation of pediatric FAFs, as well as evaluate the management and outcomes of these injuries.

AIM

To describe the epidemiology and presentation of pediatric FAFs, as well as evaluate the management and outcomes of these injuries.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was performed at a major, pediatric level 1 trauma center. The study included patients aged 18 or younger who presented with FAIs between 2008-2018. Additional data was collected on patients with FAFs including demographic and clinical data such as age, sex, race, payor type, fracture location, injury severity score (ISS), and radiographic and clinical outcomes. The management of FAFs was analyzed as well as need for readmission and reoperation. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the results and univariate analyses were performed to assess differences between groups.

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2018, there were a total of 61 patients who presented with FAIs. In this cohort, 21 patients (34%) sustained FAFs (25 fractures) with a mean age of 11 (Range: 10 mo to 18 years old) at the time of presentation. Approximately 52% (n = 11) of patients with FAFs were male, 76% (n = 8 and n = 8, respectively) identified as black or other, and 71% (n = 15) had government insurance. FAFs were most commonly noted in the upper extremity (n = 7) and lower extremity (n = 6). In patients with FAFs, the mean ISS at presentation was 11.38 (Range: 2-38), and 24% of patients (n = 5) were classified as having a major trauma. There were no significant differences in age, sex, race, and payor type in FAF patients that presented with and without major trauma (P > 0.05). When comparing FAF and non-FAF patients, there was a statistically significant difference in ISS (11.38 vs 14.45, P = 0.02). In total, 33% (n = 7) of patients with FAFs required orthopaedic surgical management, which was most commonly comprised of debridement (n = 6/7, 86%), and 14% (n = 1/7) of these patients required coordinated care with plastic and/or vascular surgery. There were no significant differences in age and payor type in patients with FAFs treated with and without orthopaedic surgery. Of the patients with FAFs, 52% (n = 11) had a minimum 90-d follow-up, and 48% (n = 10) had a minimum 2-year follow-up. Two patients were readmitted within 90-d, while one patient required a reoperation within 2-years.

CONCLUSION

Over 25% of FAIs in pediatric patients result in FAFs. FAFs often present to pediatric trauma centers and the majority of these injuries occur in non-Caucasian males with government insurance. Most FAFs do not need orthopaedic surgical management; 14% of these injuries require subspecialty care by orthopaedic surgery, vascular surgery, or plastic surgery. Patients with FAFs also have lower ISS compared to patients who sustained FAIs without fracture. Thus, these patients should be treated at pediatric trauma centers with specialty care and additional research is needed to focus prevention efforts, understand reasons for poor follow-up, and evaluate outcomes after injury.

"The cops didn't make it any better": Perspectives on police and guns among survivors of gun violence

BACKGROUND

Survivors of gun violence in the United States (US) are twenty times more likely to be re-injured with a firearm and three times more likely to be arrested under a violence or a weapons-related charge. The mechanisms for these outcomes are multifactorial and remain largely understudied. We aimed to examine perspectives on both the police and guns among survivors of guns violence.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of qualitative data from a study that examined the post-hospitalization recovery experience of survivors of firearm violence. Using a conceptual framework derived from sociology literature and a coding team made up of researchers, community members and former police officers, we used directed content analysis to construct themes.

RESULTS

The data set included interviews with 20 survivors of gun violence that were all Black males, aged 20-51 years. The recurring themes around the police included: (1) Legal cynicism: "I don't like police, none of them"; (2) Interactions with the police in a medical setting: "The cops didn't make it any better" and (3) Ambivalence around police presence within the community: "That's their job to protect me, too." Themes related to guns in the community encompassed: (1) The availability of guns: "Getting a gun is about as easy as buying a pair of sneakers"; (2) Symbolic meaning: "Guns give them courage"; (3) Social meaning: "I just let them know: I have a gun, too." and (4) Strategic meaning: "It's just for protection."

CONCLUSIONS

Survivors of gun violence describe distrust for the police and an ecology of guns that confers symbolic, social and strategic meaning to owning a gun. Interventions to decrease gun violence should address the cultural value of a gun as well as focus on improving police relations with the community.

Association of Firearm Access, Use, and Victimization During Adolescence With Firearm Perpetration During Adulthood in a 16-Year Longitudinal Study of Youth Involved in the Juvenile Justice System

IMPORTANCE

Preventing firearm violence requires understanding its antecedents. Yet no comprehensive longitudinal study has examined how involvement with firearms during adolescence-use, access, and victimization (defined as threatened with a weapon or gunshot injury)-is associated with the perpetration of firearm violence in adulthood.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between firearm involvement during adolescence and subsequent firearm perpetration and ownership in adulthood among youth involved in the juvenile justice system.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study analyzed interview responses of 1829 randomly selected participants as part of the Northwestern Juvenile Project, a longitudinal study of health needs and outcomes of youth sampled from a temporary juvenile detention center in a large US city. Youth aged 10 to 18 years were interviewed in detention from November 1995 through June 1998. Participants were reinterviewed up to 13 times over 16 years through February 2015, for a total of 17 776 interviews. The sample was stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and legal status (juvenile or adult court). Data were analyzed from April 2017, when data preparation began, through November 2020.

EXPOSURES

Firearm involvement during adolescence: use (ie, threaten, shoot), access (ownership, ease of access, firearm in household, membership in gang that carries firearms), and victimization (gunshot injury, threatened with a weapon).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Firearm involvement during adulthood: perpetration of firearm violence (ie, threatening with or using a firearm) and firearm ownership.

RESULTS

Among the 1829 participants, 1388 had a 16-year follow-up interview: 860 males, 528 females; 809 were African American, 203 were non-Hispanic White; 374 were Hispanic; and 2 were other race/ethnicity; median (interquartile range) age of 32 (30-32) years. Eighty-five percent of males and 63.2% of females were involved with firearms as adolescents. Compared with females, males had significantly higher odds of every type of involvement except having a firearm in the home. In adulthood, 41.3% of males and 10.5% of females perpetrated firearm violence. Adolescents who had been threatened with a weapon or injured by firearms had 3.1 (95% CI, 2.0-4.9) and 2.4 (95% CI, 1.2-4.9) times the odds of perpetrating violence during adulthood. Similar associations were found for firearm ownership.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Involvement with firearms during adolescence-including victimization-is a significant risk factor for firearm perpetration and ownership during adulthood.

Universal background checks for handgun purchases can reduce homicide rates of African Americans

BACKGROUND

Federal law requires background checks for firearms purchased from licensed dealers, but states can extend requirements to private sales of handguns and purchases at gun shows (universal background checks for handguns [UBC-HG]). Although firearm homicide disproportionately affects African Americans, little is known about how UBG-HG impacts African Americans. We hypothesized that implementation of UBC-HG would reduce rates of firearm homicide of African Americans.

METHODS

We collected Centers for Disease Control firearm homicide counts for African American and white populations in the 50 states, 1999 to 2017. Laws were drawn from the State Firearm Laws Database. The exposure and outcome of interest were UBC-HG adoption and firearm homicide. We included non-Hispanic African American and non-Hispanic white populations. We used Poisson regression to perform a differences-in-differences analysis. A categorical variable for state accounted for time-stable state characteristics. We controlled for year to account for trends over time unrelated to policy. We controlled for state-specific, time-variable factors, including median household income, population younger than 25 years or 65 years or older, alcohol consumption, and count of firearm laws (UBC-HG excluded). Standard errors were adjusted for clustering at the state level.

RESULTS

The firearm homicide rate among whites was 1.8 per 100,000 (interquartile range, 1.2-2.7) ranging from 1.4 in 2011 to 1.8 in 2016. The firearm homicide rate was 15.6 per 100,000 (interquartile range, 11.6-21.0) among African Americans, ranging from 14.0 in 2009 to 19.6 in 2017. While no significant difference in firearm homicides among whites (incidence rate ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-1.20) was appreciated, the passage of UBC-HG was associated with an 19% decrease in African Americans firearm homicides (incidence rate ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.94; p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

Implementing UBC-HG was associated with decreased firearm homicides among African Americans-the population most at risk. Expanding UBC-HG may be an effective approach to reducing racial disparities in firearm homicides.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological, level III.

Survivors of gun violence and the experience of recovery

BACKGROUND

Survivors of gun violence may develop significant mental health sequelae and are at higher risk for reinjury through repeat violence. Despite this, survivors of gun violence often return to the community where they were injured with suboptimal support for their mental health, emotional recovery, and well-being. The goal of this study was to characterize the posthospitalization recovery experience of survivors of gun violence.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative research study with a community-based participatory research approach. In partnership with a community-based organization, we conducted in-depth one-on-one interviews and used snowball sampling to recruit survivors of gun violence. We applied the constant comparison method of qualitative analysis to catalogue interview transcript data by assigning conceptual codes and organizing them into a consensus list of themes. We presented the themes back to the participants and community members for confirmation.

RESULTS

We conducted 20 interviews with survivors of gun violence; all were black men, aged 20 years to 51 years. Five recurring themes emerged: (1) Isolation, physical and social restriction due to fear of surroundings; (2) Protection, feeling unsafe leading to the desire to carry a gun; (3) Aggression, willingness to use a firearm in an altercation; (4) Normalization, lack of reaction driven by the ubiquity of gun violence in the community; and (5) Distrust of health care providers, a barrier to mental health treatment.

CONCLUSION

Survivors of gun violence describe a disrupted sense of safety following their injury. As a result, they experience isolation, an increased need to carry a firearm, a normalization of gun violence, and barriers to mental health treatment. These maladaptive reactions suggest a mechanism for the violent recidivism seen among survivors of gun violence and offer potential targets to help this undertreated, high-risk population.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Care management/Therapeutic V.

'Sharing things with people that I don't even know': help-seeking for psychological symptoms in injured Black men in Philadelphia

Objectives: Psychological distress is common in survivors of traumatic injury, yet across United States' trauma systems, it is rare that standard injury care integrates psychological evaluation and professional mental healthcare. The purpose of this study was to explore help-seeking for psychological symptoms in injured Black men living in Philadelphia. Design: A subset of a cohort of 551 injured Black men admitted to a Trauma Center in Philadelphia participated in qualitative interviews that explored their perceptions of psychological symptoms after injury and the factors that guided their decision to seek professional mental health help. Data from 32 participants were analyzed for narrative and thematic content. Results: Three overarching themes emerged: (1) facilitators of help-seeking, (2) barriers to help-seeking, and (3) factors underlying the decision not to consider professional help. Five participants felt that their injury-related psychological distress was severe enough to merit professional help despite any perceived barriers. Seventeen participants identified systemic and interpersonal obstacles to professional help that prevented them from seeking this kind of care. These included: financial constraints, limited access to mental healthcare services, and fear of the judgments of mental healthcare professionals. Ten participants would not consider professional help; these men perceived a lack of need and sufficiency in their existing social support networks. Conclusions: Research is needed to inform or identify interventions that diminish the impact of barriers to care, and identify from whom, where, and how professional mental health help might be more effectively offered to injured Black men in recovery environments like Philadelphia.

Firearm-Related Deaths in Multnomah County, Oregon, 2010-2016: Linking Medical Examiner Data to State Vital Records Data

OBJECTIVES

Violence due to firearms is a substantial public health problem. Death data from medical examiner and vital records were linked to evaluate the use of medical examiner data to augment routine surveillance and determine any differences in sex, age, manner of death, or race and ethnicity between the 2 data systems.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Medical examiner data were searched for keywords of interest, and vital records data were obtained and linked for deaths occurring in Multnomah County, Oregon, from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2016. Both data sets were compared for the number and proportion of firearm-related deaths by sex, age, manner of death, and race/ethnicity. Sensitivity and positive predictive values were calculated for variables that had discordant results.

RESULTS

A total of 568 firearm-related deaths were identified in the medical examiner data. After matching with manual review, the 2 data systems had 100% case agreement. A reverse match showed that most cases not found in medical examiner data were due to transfer of case jurisdiction. The 2 systems matched nearly perfectly in sex, age, and manner of death but differed in characterization of race and ethnicity. Sensitivity was 62% for Hispanic ethnicity but 93% for white and black race.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Using medical examiner data was a useful way to augment routine surveillance of firearm-related deaths in our jurisdiction in close to real time. However, caution is needed when analyzing data by subgroups because of discordant classifications of race between the data systems.

Firearm ownership and acquisition in California: findings from the 2018 California Safety and Well-being Survey

Objective

To describe the prevalence of and factors associated with firearm ownership; the types, subtypes and quantity of firearms owned; and when, where and why firearms were acquired in California.

Methods

A cross-sectional analysis of a state-representative, probability-based, internet survey of California adults was conducted in September–October 2018 (n=2558; completion rate 49%). Household firearm ownership was ascertained for all respondents; personal firearm ownership was ascertained only among respondents who reported living in a home with firearms; and information on the types and quantity of firearms owned and details about recently acquired firearms came from firearm owners only.

Findings

Roughly one in four (25%, 95% CI 22% to 28%) California adults live in a home with a firearm, including 4.2 million adults—14% (95% CI 13% to 16%) of the adult population—who personally own a firearm. These owners collectively own an estimated 19.9 million firearms (8.9 million handguns). Approximately half (48%, 95% CI 34% to 61%) of the firearm stock in California is owned by the 10% (95% CI 6% to 14%) of owners who own 10 or more firearms, though more than half (54%, 95% CI 47% to 62%) of owners in the state own only one or two firearms. Most (69%, 95% CI 63% to 75%) owners purchased their last firearm from a firearm retailer, usually a handgun purchased primarily for protection against people.

Conclusion

This study provides the most detailed and up-to-date information available on firearm ownership and acquisition in California. Results can inform firearm violence prevention efforts and public health, safety and policy development in California and nationally.

Changes in patterns of mortality rates and years of life lost due to firearms in the United States, 1999 to 2016: A joinpoint analysis

BACKGROUND

Firearm-related death rates and years of potential life lost (YPLL) vary widely between population subgroups and states. However, changes or inflections in temporal trends within subgroups and states are not fully documented. We assessed temporal patterns and inflections in the rates of firearm deaths and %YPLL due to firearms for overall and by sex, age, race/ethnicity, intent, and states in the United States between 1999 and 2016.

METHODS

We extracted age-adjusted firearm mortality and YPLL rates per 100,000, and %YPLL from 1999 to 2016 by using the WONDER (Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) database. We used Joinpoint Regression to assess temporal trends, the inflection points, and annual percentage change (APC) from 1999 to 2016.

RESULTS

National firearm mortality rates were 10.3 and 11.8 per 100,000 in 1999 and 2016, with two distinct segments; a plateau until 2014 followed by an increase of APC = 7.2% (95% CI 3.1, 11.4). YPLL rates were from 304.7 and 338.2 in 1999 and 2016 with a steady APC increase in %YPLL of 0.65% (95% CI 0.43, 0.87) from 1999 to an inflection point in 2014, followed by a larger APC in %YPLL of 5.1% (95% CI 0.1, 10.4). The upward trend in firearm mortality and YPLL rates starting in 2014 was observed in subgroups of male, non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanic whites and for firearm assaults. The inflection points for firearm mortality and YPLL rates also varied across states.

CONCLUSIONS

Within the United States, firearm mortality rates and YPLL remained constant between 1999 and 2014 and has been increasing subsequently. There was, however, an increase in firearm mortality rates in several subgroups and individual states earlier than 2014.

Risk of 90-day readmission in patients after firearm injury hospitalization: a nationally representative retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

National conversation has justifiably been concerned with firearm-related deaths and much less attention has been paid to the consequences of surviving a firearm injury. We assessed the risk of hospital readmission, length of stay (LOS) during hospitalization, and costs within 90-days after surviving an index firearm injury and compared these data with pedestrians and occupants involved in motor vehicle crash (MVC).

METHODS

Nationwide Readmission Database, a nationally representative readmission database from 2013 and 2014 was used to create a retrospective cohort study. The primary outcome was time-to-first all-cause readmission within 90-days after discharge from the index hospitalization. Secondary outcomes were LOS and hospitalization costs at index events and at 90-days.

RESULTS

There were 3,334 (10.5%), 3,818 (10.6%) and 24,672 (9.4%) firearm injury, pedestrian, and occupant MVC readmissions within 90-days. The risk of 90-day readmission among firearm was 20% (HR=1.20, 95%CI=1.09-1.32) and 34% (HR=1.34, 95%CI=1.26-1.44) greater than patients admitted after pedestrian and occupant MVC. The primary causes of firearm readmission were surgical complications, intestinal disorders and open wounds. The mean total costs were lower among patients after firearm injury versus occupant MVC hospitalizations ($9,357 versus $11,032, p=0.028) but mean total LOS was greater (4.48 versus 4.38 days, p=0.003). Medicaid-insured patients had longer LOS at a total lower cost during index hospitalization after firearm injury as compared to MVC occupant injury. Increased LOS and lower costs of 90-day readmissions among firearm patients versus occupant MVC were irrespective of insurance.

CONCLUSIONS

The patients surviving a firearm injury have a substantial risk of subsequent hospitalizations, higher than pedestrian or occupant MVC injuries. Medicaid is disproportionately burdened by the costs of treatment of firearm injury.

Risk of 90-day readmission in patients after firearm injury hospitalization: a nationally representative retrospective cohort study

Background:

National conversation has justifiably been concerned with firearm-related deaths and much less attention has been paid to the consequences of surviving a firearm injury. We assessed the risk of hospital readmission, length of stay (LOS) during hospitalization, and costs within 90-days after surviving an index firearm injury and compared these data with pedestrians and occupants involved in motor vehicle crash (MVC).

Methods:

Nationwide Readmission Database, a nationally representative readmission database from 2013 and 2014 was used to create a retrospective cohort study. The primary outcome was time-to-first all-cause readmission within 90-days after discharge from the index hospitalization. Secondary outcomes were LOS and hospitalization costs at index events and at 90-days.

Results:

There were 3,334 (10.5%), 3,818 (10.6%) and 24,672 (9.4%) firearm injury, pedestrian, and occupant MVC readmissions within 90-days. The risk of 90-day readmission among firearm was 20% (HR=1.20, 95%CI=1.09-1.32) and 34% (HR=1.34, 95%CI=1.26-1.44) greater than patients admitted after pedestrian and occupant MVC. The primary causes of firearm readmission were surgical complications, intestinal disorders and open wounds. The mean total costs were lower among patients after firearm injury versus occupant MVC hospitalizations ($9,357 versus $11,032, p=0.028) but mean total LOS was greater (4.48 versus 4.38 days, p=0.003). Medicaid-insured patients had longer LOS at a total lower cost during index hospitalization after firearm injury as compared to MVC occupant injury. Increased LOS and lower costs of 90-day readmissions among firearm patients versus occupant MVC were irrespective of insurance.

Conclusions:

The patients surviving a firearm injury have a substantial risk of subsequent hospitalizations, higher than pedestrian or occupant MVC injuries. Medicaid is disproportionately burdened by the costs of treatment of firearm injury.

Banning open carry of unloaded handguns decreases firearm-related fatalities and hospital utilization

Background

Since 1967, in California it has been illegal to openly carry a loaded firearm in public except when engaged in hunting or law enforcement. However, beginning January 1, 2012, public open carry of unloaded handguns also became illegal. Fatal and non-fatal (NF) firearm injuries were examined before and after adoption of the 2012 ban to quantify the effect of the new law on public health.

Methods

State-level data were obtained directly from California and nine other US state inpatient and emergency department (ED) discharge databases, and the Centers for Disease Control Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System. Case numbers of firearm fatalities, NF hospitalizations, NF ED visits, and state-level population estimates were extracted. Each incident was classified as unintentional, self-inflicted, or assault. Crude incidence rates were calculated. The strength of gun laws was quantified using the Brady grade. There were no changes to open carry in these nine states during the study. Using a difference-in-difference technique, the rate trends 3 years preban and postban were compared.

Results

The 2012 open carry ban resulted in a significantly lower incident rate of both firearm-related fatalities and NF hospitalizations (p<0.001). The effect of the law remained significant when controlling for baseline state gun laws (p<0.001). Firearm incident rate drops in California were significant for male homicide (p=0.023), hospitalization for NF assault (p=0.021 male; p=0.025 female), and ED NF assault visits (p=0.04). No significant decreases were observed by sex for suicides or unintentional injury. Changing the law saved an estimated 337 lives (3.6% fewer deaths) and 1285 NF visits in California during the postban period.

Discussion

Open carry ban decreases fatalities and healthcare utilization even in a state with baseline strict gun laws. The most significant impact is from decreasing firearm-related fatal and NF assaults.

Level of evidence

III, epidemiology.

The epidemiology of firearm injuries managed in US emergency departments

Background

Firearm-related injuries cause significant morbidity and mortality in the United States (US), consuming resources and fueling political and public health discourse. Most analyses of firearm injuries are based on fatality statistics. Here, we describe the epidemiology of firearm injuries presenting to US emergency departments (EDs).

Methods

We performed a retrospective study of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Program Nationwide Emergency Department Survey (NEDS) from 2009 to 2012. NEDS is the largest all-payer ED survey in the US containing approximately 30 million annual records. Results include survey-adjusted counts, proportions, means, and rates, and confidence intervals of age-stratified ED discharges for firearm injuries.

Results

There were 71,111 (se = 613) ED discharges for firearm injuries in 2009; the absolute number increased 3.9% (se = 1.2) to 75,559 (se = 610) in 2012. 18-to-44-year-olds accounted for the largest proportion of total injuries with 52,187 (se = 527) in 2009 and 56,644 (se = 528) in 2012—a 7.2% (se = 1.6) relative rate increase and an absolute increase of 3.3/100,000 (se = 0.7). Firearm injuries among children < 5-years-old increase 16%, and 19% among children 5-to-9-years-old. 136,112 (se = 761)—or 48.2%—of those injured were treated and discharged home without admission; 106,927 (se = 755) were admitted. Firearm deaths represented one-third of all trauma mortality. Three-quarters of those injured resided in neighborhoods with median incomes below $49,250.

Conclusions

Firearm injuries increased from 2009 to 2012, driven by adults aged 18-to-44-years-old, and disproportionately impacting lower socioeconomic communities. Injuries also increased among young children. Firearm injuries remain a continued public health challenge, and a significant source of ED morbidity and mortality.

Firearm-associated Fractures in Children and Adolescents: Trends in the United States 2003-2012

BACKGROUND

Firearm-associated injuries are the second leading cause of death in children in the United States. Fractures are common comorbid injuries in young patients with firearm-associated injuries. The purpose of this study was to define the burden of firearm-associated fractures (FAFs) in children and adolescents in the United States.

METHODS

We analyzed the 2003-2012 Kids' Inpatient Database. Patients were grouped into 4 age groups: 0 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14, and 15 to 20 years old. Sample observations with both an external cause of injury code indicating gunshot injury and a diagnosis code indicating orthopaedic fracture (extremity, pelvis, or spine) were identified as cases of FAF. Sex, age, race, cause of injury, and fracture-related operating room procedures were catalogued. Population-level incidence was calculated for each year studied.

RESULTS

From 2003 to 2012, the incidence of FAF in patients 20 years and below of age increased from 73 to 96 cases per 100,000 admissions (P=0.009). The 0 to 4 age group saw the largest increase in injury frequency (141%, P=0.08). There was a 4-fold increase in the rate of unintentional injury in this subgroup. The most common age group affected by FAFs was 15 to 20 year olds. Minorities and male individuals were disproportionately affected. Assault and unintentional causes were the most common reasons for injury.

CONCLUSIONS

The frequency of FAF in patients 20 years and below of age increased over the study period, with almost 1 case per 1000 admissions in 2012. The finding that certain subpopulations are disproportionately affected reflects the complex sociologic factors influencing gun violence in the United States.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III-retrospective cohort study.

State Firearm Laws and Interstate Firearm Deaths From Homicide and Suicide in the United States: A Cross-sectional Analysis of Data by County

IMPORTANCE

Firearm laws in one state may be associated with increased firearm death rates from homicide and suicide in neighboring states.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether counties located closer to states with lenient firearm policies have higher firearm death rates.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study of firearm death rates by county for January 2010 to December 2014 examined data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for firearm suicide and homicide decedents for 3108 counties in the 48 contiguous states of the United States.

EXPOSURES

Each county was assigned 2 scores, a state policy score (range, 0-12) based on the strength of its state firearm laws, and an interstate policy score (range, -1.33 to 8.31) based on the sum of population-weighted and distance-decayed policy scores for all other states. Counties were divided into those with low, medium, and high home state and interstate policy scores.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

County-level rates of firearm, nonfirearm, and total homicide and suicide. With multilevel Bayesian spatial Poisson models, we generated incidence rate ratios (IRR) comparing incidence rates between each group of counties and the reference group, counties with high home state and high interstate policy scores.

RESULTS

Stronger firearm laws in a state were associated with lower firearm suicide rates and lower overall suicide rates regardless of the strength of the other states' laws. Counties with low state scores had the highest rates of firearm suicide. Rates were similar across levels of interstate policy score (low: IRR, 1.34; 95% credible interval [CI], 1.11-1.65; medium: IRR, 1.36, (95% CI, 1.15-1.65; and high: IRR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20-1.73). Counties with low state and low or medium interstate policy scores had the highest rates of firearm homicide. Counties with low home state and interstate scores had higher firearm homicide rates (IRR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.02-1.88) and overall homicide rates (IRR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03-1.67). Counties in states with low firearm policy scores had lower rates of firearm homicide only if the interstate firearm policy score was high.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Strong state firearm policies were associated with lower suicide rates regardless of other states' laws. Strong policies were associated with lower homicide rates, and strong interstate policies were also associated with lower homicide rates, where home state policies were permissive. Strengthening state firearm policies may prevent firearm suicide and homicide, with benefits that may extend beyond state lines.

Epidemiology of paediatric trauma presenting to US emergency departments: 2006-2012

BACKGROUND

Traumatic injury is the leading cause of paediatric morbidity and mortality in the USA. We present updated national data on emergency department (ED) discharges for traumatic injury for a recent 7-year period.

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample Survey, the largest and most comprehensive database in the USA, for 2006-2012. Among children and adolescents, we tracked changes in injury mechanism and severity, cost of care, injury intent and the role of trauma centres.

RESULTS

There was an 8.3% (95% CI 7.7 to 8.9) decrease in the annual number of ED visits for traumatic injury in children and adolescents over the study period, from 8 557 904 (SE=5861) in 2006 to 7 846 912 (SE=5191) in 2012. The case-fatality rate was 0.04% for all injuries and 3.2% for severely injured children. Children and adolescents with high-mortality injury mechanisms were more than three times more likely to be treated at a level 1 trauma centre (OR=3.5, 95% CI 3.3 to 3.7), but were more no more likely to die (OR=0.96, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.00). Traumatic brain injury diagnoses increased 22.2% (95% CI 20.6 to 23.9) during the study period. Intentional assault accounted for 3% (SE=0.1) of all child and adolescent ED injury discharges and 7.2% (SE=0.3) of discharges among 15-19 year-olds. There was an 11.3% (95% CI 10.0 to 12.6) decline in motor vehicle injuries from 2009 to 2012. The total cost of care was $23 billion (SE=0.01), a 78% increase from 2006 to 2012.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis presents a recent portrait of paediatric trauma across the USA. These analyses indicate the important role and value of trauma centre care for injured children and adolescents, and that the most common causes and mechanisms of injury are preventable.

The Epidemiology of Emergency Department Trauma Discharges in the United States

OBJECTIVE

Injury-related morbidity and mortality is an important emergency medicine and public health challenge in the United States. Here we describe the epidemiology of traumatic injury presenting to U.S. emergency departments (EDs), define changes in types and causes of injury among the elderly and the young, characterize the role of trauma centers and teaching hospitals in providing emergency trauma care, and estimate the overall economic burden of treating such injuries.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary retrospective, repeated cross-sectional study of the Nationwide Emergency Department Data Sample (NEDS), the largest all-payer ED survey database in the United States. Main outcomes and measures were survey-adjusted counts, proportions, means, and rates with associated standard errors (SEs) and 95% confidence intervals. We plotted annual age-stratified ED discharge rates for traumatic injury and present tables of proportions of common injuries and external causes. We modeled the association of Level I or II trauma center care with injury fatality using a multivariable survey-adjusted logistic regression analysis that controlled for age, sex, injury severity, comorbid diagnoses, and teaching hospital status.

RESULTS

There were 181,194,431 (SE = 4,234) traumatic injury discharges from U.S. EDs between 2006 and 2012. There was a mean year-to-year decrease of 143 (95% CI = -184.3 to -68.5) visits per 100,000 U.S. population during the study period. The all-age, all-cause case-fatality rate for traumatic injuries across U.S. EDs during the study period was 0.17% (SE = 0.001%). The case-fatality rate for the most severely injured averaged 4.8% (SE = 0.001%), and severely injured patients were nearly four times as likely to be seen in Level I or II trauma centers (relative risk = 3.9 [95% CI = 3.7 to 4.1]). The unadjusted risk ratio, based on group counts, for the association of Level I or II trauma centers with mortality was risk ratio = 4.9 (95% CI = 4.5 to 5.3); however, after sex, age, injury severity, and comorbidities were accounted for, Level I or II trauma centers were not associated with an increased risk of fatality (odds ratio = 0.96 [95% CI = 0.79 to 1.18]). There were notable changes at the extremes of age in types and causes of ED discharges for traumatic injury between 2009 and 2012. Age-stratified rates of diagnoses of traumatic brain injury increased 29.5% (SE = 2.6%) for adults older than 85 and increased 44.9% (SE = 1.3%) for children younger than 18. Firearm-related injuries increased 31.7% (SE = 0.2%) in children 5 years and younger. The total inflation-adjusted cost of ED injury care in the United States between 2006 and 2012 was $99.75 billion (SE = $0.03 billion).

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency departments are a sensitive barometer of the continuing impact of traumatic injury as an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Level I or II trauma centers remain a bulwark against the tide of severe trauma in the United States, but the types and causes of traumatic injury in the United States are changing in consequential ways, particularly at the extremes of age, with traumatic brain injuries and firearm-related trauma presenting increased challenges.

Firearm Deaths in America: Can We Learn From 462,000 Lives Lost?

OBJECTIVE

We sought to determine whether state firearm legislation correlated with firearm-related fatality rates (FFR) during a 15-year period.

BACKGROUND

The politicized and controversial topic of firearm legislation has been grossly understudied when the relative impact of American firearm violence is considered. Scientific evidence regarding gun legislation effectiveness remains scant.

METHODS

Demographic and intent data (1999-2013) were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System database and compared by state firearm legislation rankings with respect to FFR. State scorecards were obtained from firearm-restrictive (Brady Campaign/Law Center against Gun Violence [BC/LC]) and less-restrictive (National Rifle Association) groups. FFR were compared between restrictive and least-restrictive states during 3 periods (1999-2003, 2004-2008, 2009-2013).

RESULTS

During 1999 to 2013, 462,043 Americans were killed by firearms. Overall FFR did not change during the 3 periods (10.89 ± 3.99/100,000; 10.71 ± 3.93/100,000; 11.14 ± 3.91/100,000; P = 0.87). Within each period, least-restrictive states had greater unintentional, pediatric, and adult suicide, White and overall FFR than restrictive states (all P < 0.05). Conversely, no correlation was seen, during any of the 3 time periods, with either homicide or Black FFR-population subsets accounting for 41.7% of firearm deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Restrictive firearm legislation is associated with decreased pediatric, unintentional, suicide, and overall FFR, but homicide and Black FFR appear unaffected. Future funding and research should be directed at both identifying the most effective aspects of firearm legislation and creating legislation that equally protects every segment of the American population.

The enduring impact of historical and structural racism on urban violence in Philadelphia

Public health approaches to crime and injury prevention are increasingly focused on the physical places and environments where violence is concentrated. In this study, our aim is to explore the association between historic place-based racial discrimination captured in the 1937 Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) map of Philadelphia and present-day violent crime and firearm injuries. The creators of the 1937 HOLC map zoned Philadelphia based in a hierarchical system wherein first-grade and green color zones were used to indicate areas desirable for government-backed mortgage lending and economic development, a second-grade or blue zone for areas that were already developed and stable, a third-grade or yellow zone for areas with evidence of decline and influx of a "low grade population," and fourth-grade or red zone for areas with dilapidated or informal housing and an "undesirable population" of predominately Black residents. We conducted an empirical spatial analysis of the concentration of firearm assaults and violent crimes in 2013 through 2014 relative to zoning in the 1937 HOLC map. After adjusting for socio-demographic factors at the time the map was created from the 1940 Census, firearm injury rates are highest in historically red-zoned areas of Philadelphia. The relationship between HOLC map zones and general violent crime is not supported after adjusting for historical Census data. This analysis extends historic perspective to the relationship between emplaced structural racism and violence, and situates the socio-ecological context in which people live at the forefront of this association.

The Hidden Epidemic of Firearm Injury: Increasing Firearm Injury Rates During 2001-2013

Investigating firearm injury trends over the past decade, we examined temporal trends overall and according to race/ethnicity and intent in fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries (FFIs and NFIs) in United States during 2001-2013. Counts of FFIs and estimated counts of NFIs were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System. Poisson regression was used to analyze overall and subgroup temporal trends and to estimate annual change per 100,000 persons (change). Total firearm injuries (n = 1,328,109) increased annually by 0.36 (Ptrend < 0.0001). FFIs remained constant (change = 0.02; Ptrend = 0.22) while NFIs increased (change = 0.35; Ptrend < 0.0001). Homicide FFIs declined (change = -0.05; Ptrend < 0.0001) while homicide NFIs increased (change = 0.43; Ptrend < 0.0001). Suicide FFIs increased (change = 0.07; Ptrend < 0.0001) while unintentional FFIs and NFIs declined (changes = -0.01 and -0.09, respectively; Ptrend < 0.0001 and 0.005). Among whites, FFIs (change = 0.15; Ptrend < 0.0001) and NFIs (change = 0.13; Ptrend < 0.0001) increased; among blacks, FFIs declined (change = -0.20; Ptrend < 0.0001). Among Hispanics, FFIs declined (change = -0.28; Ptrend < 0.0001) while NFIs increased (change = 0.55; Ptrend = 0.014). The endemic firearm-related injury rates during the first decade of the 21st century mask a shift from firearm deaths towards a rapid rise in nonfatal injuries.

Gun violence in Americans' social network during their lifetime

INTRODUCTION

The overall burden of gun violence death and injury in the US is now well understood. However, no study has shown the extent to which gun violence is associated with the individual lives of Americans.

METHODS

We used fatal and non-fatal gun injury rates in 2013 from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) and generally accepted estimates about the size of an American's social network to determine the likelihood that any given person will know someone in their personal social network who is a victim of gun violence during their lifetime. We derived estimates in the overall population and among racial/ethnic groups and by gun-injury intent.

RESULTS

The likelihood of knowing a gun violence victim within any given personal network over a lifetime is 99.85% (99.8% to 99.9%). The likelihood among non-Hispanic white, black, Hispanic and other race Americans were 97.1%, 99.9%, 99.5% and 88.9% respectively.

CONCLUSION

Nearly all Americans of all racial/ethnic groups are likely to know a victim of gun violence in their social network during their lifetime.

Recurrent violent injury: magnitude, risk factors, and opportunities for intervention from a statewide analysis

INTRODUCTION

Although preventing recurrent violent injury is an important component of a public health approach to interpersonal violence and a common focus of violence intervention programs, the true incidence of recurrent violent injury is unknown. Prior studies have reported recurrence rates from 0.8% to 44%, and risk factors for recurrence are not well established.

METHODS

We used a statewide, all-payer database to perform a retrospective cohort study of emergency department visits for injury due to interpersonal violence in Florida, following up patients injured in 2010 for recurrence through 2012. We assessed risk factors for recurrence with multivariable logistic regression and estimated time to recurrence with the Kaplan-Meier method. We tabulated hospital charges and costs for index and recurrent visits.

RESULTS

Of 53 908 patients presenting for violent injury in 2010, 11.1% had a recurrent violent injury during the study period. Trauma centers treated 31.8%, including 55.9% of severe injuries. Among recurrers, 58.9% went to a different hospital for their second injury. Low income, homelessness, Medicaid or uninsurance, and black race were associated with increased odds of recurrence. Patients with visits for mental and behavioral health and unintentional injury also had increased odds of recurrence. Index injuries accounted for $105 million in costs, and recurrent injuries accounted for another $25.3 million.

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrent violent injury is a common and costly phenomenon, and effective violence prevention programs are needed. Prevention must include the nontrauma centers where many patients seek care.

Gun ownership and social gun culture

We assessed gun ownership rates in 2013 across the USA and the association between exposure to a social gun culture and gun ownership. We used data from a nationally representative sample of 4000 US adults, from 50 states and District of Columbia, aged >18 years to assess gun ownership and social gun culture performed in October 2013. State-level firearm policy information was obtained from the Brady Law Center and Injury Prevention and Control Center. One-third of Americans reported owning a gun, ranging from 5.2% in Delaware to 61.7% in Alaska. Gun ownership was 2.25-times greater among those reporting social gun culture (PR=2.25, 95% CI 2.02 to 2.52) than those who did not. In conclusion, we found strong association between social gun culture and gun ownership. Gun cultures may need to be considered for public health strategies that aim to change gun ownership in the USA.

A Geospatial Analysis of Severe Firearm Injuries Compared to Other Injury Mechanisms: Event Characteristics, Location, Timing, and Outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Relatively little is known about the context and location of firearm injury events. Using a prospective cohort of trauma patients, we describe and compare severe firearm injury events to other violent and nonviolent injury mechanisms regarding incident location, proximity to home, time of day, spatial clustering, and outcomes.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of injured children and adults with hypotension or Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤ 8, injured by one of four primary injury mechanisms (firearm, stabbing, assault, and motor vehicle collision [MVC]) who were transported by emergency medical services to a Level I or II trauma center in 10 regions of the United States and Canada from January 1, 2010, through June 30, 2011. We used descriptive statistics and geospatial analyses to compare the injury groups, distance from home, outcomes, and spatial clustering.

RESULTS

There were 2,079 persons available for analysis, including 506 (24.3%) firearm injuries, 297 (14.3%) stabbings, 339 (16.3%) assaults, and 950 (45.7%) MVCs. Firearm injuries resulted in the highest proportion of serious injuries (66.3%), early critical resources (75.3%), and in-hospital mortality (53.5%). Injury events occurring within 1 mile of a patient's home included 53.9% of stabbings, 49.2% of firearm events, 41.3% of assaults, and 20.0% of MVCs; the non-MVC events frequently occurred at home. While there was geospatial clustering, 94.4% of firearm events occurred outside of geographic clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe firearm events tend to occur within a patient's own neighborhood, often at home, and generally outside of geospatial clusters. Public health efforts should focus on the home in all types of neighborhoods to reduce firearm violence.

Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study

BACKGROUND

In an effort to reduce firearm mortality rates in the USA, US states have enacted a range of firearm laws to either strengthen or deregulate the existing main federal gun control law, the Brady Law. We set out to determine the independent association of different firearm laws with overall firearm mortality, homicide firearm mortality, and suicide firearm mortality across all US states. We also projected the potential reduction of firearm mortality if the three most strongly associated firearm laws were enacted at the federal level.

METHODS

We constructed a cross-sectional, state-level dataset from Nov 1, 2014, to May 15, 2015, using counts of firearm-related deaths in each US state for the years 2008-10 (stratified by intent [homicide and suicide]) from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, data about 25 firearm state laws implemented in 2009, and state-specific characteristics such as firearm ownership for 2013, firearm export rates, and non-firearm homicide rates for 2009, and unemployment rates for 2010. Our primary outcome measure was overall firearm-related mortality per 100,000 people in the USA in 2010. We used Poisson regression with robust variances to derive incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs.

FINDINGS

31,672 firearm-related deaths occurred in 2010 in the USA (10·1 per 100,000 people; mean state-specific count 631·5 [SD 629·1]). Of 25 firearm laws, nine were associated with reduced firearm mortality, nine were associated with increased firearm mortality, and seven had an inconclusive association. After adjustment for relevant covariates, the three state laws most strongly associated with reduced overall firearm mortality were universal background checks for firearm purchase (multivariable IRR 0·39 [95% CI 0·23-0·67]; p=0·001), ammunition background checks (0·18 [0·09-0·36]; p<0·0001), and identification requirement for firearms (0·16 [0·09-0·29]; p<0·0001). Projected federal-level implementation of universal background checks for firearm purchase could reduce national firearm mortality from 10·35 to 4·46 deaths per 100,000 people, background checks for ammunition purchase could reduce it to 1·99 per 100,000, and firearm identification to 1·81 per 100,000.

INTERPRETATION

Very few of the existing state-specific firearm laws are associated with reduced firearm mortality, and this evidence underscores the importance of focusing on relevant and effective firearms legislation. Implementation of universal background checks for the purchase of firearms or ammunition, and firearm identification nationally could substantially reduce firearm mortality in the USA.

FUNDING

None.

Gun ownership and social gun culture

We assessed gun ownership rates in 2013 across the USA and the association between exposure to a social gun culture and gun ownership. We used data from a nationally representative sample of 4000 US adults, from 50 states and District of Columbia, aged >18 years to assess gun ownership and social gun culture performed in October 2013. State-level firearm policy information was obtained from the Brady Law Center and Injury Prevention and Control Center. One-third of Americans reported owning a gun, ranging from 5.2% in Delaware to 61.7% in Alaska. Gun ownership was 2.25-times greater among those reporting social gun culture (PR=2.25, 95% CI 2.02 to 2.52) than those who did not. In conclusion, we found strong association between social gun culture and gun ownership. Gun cultures may need to be considered for public health strategies that aim to change gun ownership in the USA.