Evaluating the Feasibility of a Novel Firearm Injury Prevention Program for Pre-adolescent Children Through Health Care and Community-Based Partnerships: The Future Healers Program Pilot Study

BACKGROUND

Firearm violence is an American public health crisis that negatively impacts children and disproportionately affects Black youth. Few firearm injury prevention programs have been described in pre-adolescent children. The Future Healers Program is a novel collaboration constructed via partnership between the medical school, trauma center, academic surgery department, and local non-profit community organization. Our study sought to evaluate if (1) partnering with community organizations facilitated recruitment of children with prior exposure to firearm violence and (2) the health care community was a potential trusted partner appropriate for program delivery.

METHODS

Children aged 4-13 were recruited to join the program via news outlets and social media and in partnership with a local non-profit organization. Of the children and parents participating in the program, 48% (44/92) and 59% (38/64), respectively, completed an IRB-approved survey study. Pearson's chi-square, percentages, and 95% confidence intervals evaluated differences between children and caregivers on sociodemographic characteristics, firearm exposure (FE), firearm violence exposure (FVE), and perception of health care. Participant's residence was geocoded in relationship to incidents of firearm injury (2008-2021) in the same region.

RESULTS

Caregivers (95%) and children (84%) reported substantial exposure to firearm violence and resided in areas with frequent firearm injury incidents. Notably, 82% of caregivers and 66% of children reported having a family member injured by gunfire. A high percentage of caregivers (79%) and children (91%) self-reported trust in the health care system.

CONCLUSION

Partnerships between community organizations and health care systems can develop prevention programs that effectively recruit and engage pre-adolescent children impacted by firearm violence.

Protect and Provide: Perceptions of Manhood and Masculinities Among Disabled Violently Injured Black Men in a Hospital-Based Violence Intervention Program

Exploring the post-injury lives of those who have survived gunshot wounds is essential to understanding the entire scope of firearm violence. The lives of Black male firearm violence survivors are transformed in various ways due to their injuries both visible and invisible. This study explored how Black men who suffer from disabilities via a firearm negotiated their masculine identities. Semi-structured, qualitative interviews were conducted with 10 violently injured Black men participating in a hospital-based violence intervention program. Survivors expressed their thoughts on how their injuries impacted their manhood and masculinities. Three themes emerged: (1) perceptions of manhood, (2) loss of independence and burden on others, and (3) and mobility. These themes highlighted and described how their lives were impacted post-injury and characterized their psychological and physical experience of recovery. The research findings suggest the need for more qualitative studies to further explore the relationship between firearm injury, Black masculinity, and perceptions of manhood. While Black men are understudied in health research and invisible in disability research, they continue to be hyper-invisible when discussing violently acquired disabilities.

Firearms Are Now the Leading Cause of Traumatic Brain Injury-Related Mortality in Children

Recent studies have demonstrated a significant change in the epidemiology of injury fatalities in children, most notably a marked increase in firearm-related deaths. Few studies have specifically addressed pediatric TBI-related mortality trends. Studying these trends is important for both clinical preparedness and public health interventions. The purpose of this study therefore is to examine recent trends in mechanisms, intents, and rates of pediatric TBI fatalities. Data regarding fatalities from TBI for children <18 years of age from 2011 to 2021 were extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics' web-based injury statistics query and reporting system. We found that firearms became the leading cause of TBI fatalities in children by 2021, most frequently attributable to self-harm. Taken together, the findings from this study underscore the importance in monitoring the changing epidemiology of pediatric TBI fatalities.

Evaluating the impact of a street outreach intervention on participant involvement in gun violence

The past several years have witnessed increased calls for community violence interventions (CVIs) that address firearm violence while centering local expertise and avoiding the criminal legal system. Currently, little evidence exists on CVI effectiveness at the individual level. This study presents an evaluation of the impact of a street outreach-based CVI [Chicago CRED (Create Real Economic Destiny)] on participant involvement in violence. We used a quasiexperimental design with a treatment sample of 324 men recruited by outreach staff from 2016 to 2021 and a balanced comparison sample of 2,500 men from a network of individuals arrested in CRED's service areas. We conducted a Bayesian survival analysis to evaluate CRED's effect on individual violence-related outcomes on three levels of treatment: All enrolled participants, a subsample that made it through the initial phase, and those who completed programming. The intervention had a strong favorable effect on the probability of arrest for a violent crime for those completing the program: After 24 mo, CRED alumni experienced an 11.3 percentage point increase in survival rates of arrest for a violent crime relative to their comparisons (or, stated differently, a 73.4% reduction in violent crime arrests). The other two treatment levels experienced nontrivial declines in arrests but did not reach statistical significance. No statistically significant reduction in victimization risk was detected for any of the treatment levels. Results demonstrate that completion of violence intervention programming reduces the likelihood of criminal legal involvement for participants, despite the numerous systemic and environmental factors that impede personal success.

Defining the Full Spectrum of Pediatric Firearm Injury and Death in the United States: It is Even Worse Than We Think

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the full spectrum of pediatric firearm injury in the United States by describing fatal and nonfatal injury data epidemiology, vulnerable populations, and temporal trends.

BACKGROUND

Firearm injury is the leading cause of death in children and adolescents in the United States. Nonfatal injury is critical to fully define the problem, yet accurate data at the national level are lacking.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study combining national firearm injury data from the Centers for Disease Control (fatal) and the National Trauma Data Bank (nonfatal) between 2008 and 2019 for ages 0 to 17 years. Data were analyzed using descriptive and χ 2 comparisons and linear regression.

RESULTS

Approximately 5000 children and adolescents are injured or killed by firearms each year. Nonfatal injuries are twice as common as fatal injuries. Assault accounts for the majority of injuries and deaths (67%), unintentional 15%, and self-harm 14%. Black youth suffer disproportionally higher injuries overall (crude rate: 49.43/million vs White, non-Hispanic: 15.76/million), but self-harm is highest in White youth. Children <12 years are most affected by nonfatal unintentional injuries, 12 to 14 years by suicide, and 15 to 17 years by assault. Nonfatal unintentional and assault injuries, homicides, and suicides have all increased significantly ( P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This study adds critical and contemporary data regarding the full spectrum and recent trends of pediatric firearm injury in the United States and identifies vulnerable populations to inform injury prevention intervention and policy. Reliable national surveillance for nonfatal pediatric firearm injury is vital to accurately define and tackle this growing public health crisis.

Impact of Changes to Concealed-Carry Weapons Laws on Fatal and Nonfatal Violent Crime, 1980-2019

The United States faces rapidly rising rates of violent crime committed with firearms. In this study, we sought to estimate the impact of changes to laws that regulate the concealed carrying of weapons (concealed-carry weapons (CCW) laws) on violent crimes committed with a firearm. We used augmented synthetic control models and random-effects meta-analyses to estimate state-specific effects and the average effect of adopting shall-issue CCW permitting laws on rates of 6 violent crimes: homicide with a gun, homicide by other means, aggravated assault with a gun, aggravated assault with a knife, robbery with a gun, and robbery with a knife. The average effects were stratified according to the presence or absence of several shall-issue permit provisions. Adoption of a shall-issue CCW law was associated with a 9.5% increase in rates of assault with a firearm during the first 10 years after law adoption and was associated with an 8.8% increase in rates of homicide by other means. When shall-issue laws allowed violent misdemeanants to acquire CCW permits, the laws were associated with higher rates of gun assaults. It is likely that adoption of shall-issue CCW laws has increased rates of nonfatal violent crime committed with firearms. Harmful effects of shall-issue laws are most clear when provisions intended to reduce risks associated with civilian gun-carrying are absent.

Crime and Building Rehabilitation or Demolition: A Dose-Response Analysis

Thousands of buildings in Cleveland, Ohio were demolished or rehabilitated since the Great Recession in the 2000s. Recent evidence suggests removing vacant and decaying buildings reduces violent and firearm-involved crime. This study examines the dose-response relationship between demolitions, rehabilitations, and crime. We use Bayesian spatiotemporal models to estimate the association of interest for five types of crime outcomes: violent crimes, violent crimes involving a firearm, drug crimes, and crimes often associated with building vacancy. We estimate associations in quarterly time periods from 2012 through 2017 in 569 hexagons approximately the size of a neighborhood (2000 feet, approximately 610 m, in diameter), stratified by vacancy level. Across vacancy levels, the majority of our models do not identify statistically significant associations between demolition and rehabilitation dose and crime incidence. However, in some cases, we identify positive associations between demolition and crime. These associations generally appeared at higher levels of demolition (2 or 3 or more demolitions) in areas characterized by medium to high levels of vacancy. We also find that the presence of a property rehabilitation is associated with an increase in drug crimes in areas with medium levels of vacancy.

A Comparative Analysis of Knife and Firearm Homicides in the United States

In the United States of America firearms are the most common weapons used to commit homicide. This has led the public, academics, media, and policy makers to largely neglect other means of homicide. The second most common weapon used in the commission of a homicide in the USA are knives. On average more than 1,500 people are murdered with a knife each year in the USA. Little attention in the USA is focused on knife violence. However, the same is not true across the globe. After reviewing an international selection of literature, the current study aims to analyze both the victims and offenders of knife homicide in the USA by comparing them to the offenders and victims of firearm homicide. This was accomplished by analyzing data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports from 2014 to 2016. Comparisons between firearm and knife homicides included victim and offender demographics, as well as the relationship between the victim and offender. Bivariate and multivariate analysis are used to show that the victims and offenders of knife homicides are a significantly different group from the victims and offenders of firearm homicide. In the USA victims and offenders of knife violence are more likely to be female, less likely to be minorities, and are significantly older than firearm victims and offenders. The victim and offender in the case of a knife homicide are also significantly more likely to be closely related to one another. Unlike many other countries, in the USA the problem of knife violence appears much more similar to domestic violence than the typical street crime involving firearms. Because of this, knife homicides should not be approached with the same theoretical framework as firearm homicide. Additionally, the policies needed to effectively counter this problem will be different from those intended to deter firearm homicide.

Global burden and trends of firearm violence in 204 countries/territories from 1990 to 2019

Background

Gaps remained in the updated information of the firearm violence (FV) burden from a global landscape. Understanding the global burden of FV could contribute to decision-making.

Methods

Data on the FV burden, including physical violence by firearm (PVF), self-harm by firearm (SHF), and unintentional firearm injuries (UFI), were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The temporal trends of age-standardized rate (ASR) were estimated using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).

Results

In 2019, PVF, SHF, and UFI reported 710.64 × 10³, 335.25 × 10³, and 2,133.88 × 10³, respectively, incident cases worldwide. Their ASR (/100,000 people-years) were 9.31, 4.05, and 28.07. During 1990-2019, the overall incident ASRs of PVF presented an increasing trend (EAPC = 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48 to 0.75). Notably, pronounced increasing trends were observed in Tropical Latin America, and North Africa and Middle East. However, incident trends of SHF and UFI declined globally, with the respective EAPCs being -0.68 (95% CI: -0.83 to -0.54) and -0.98 (95% CI: -1.19 to -0.77). In 2019, the ASR of death due to PVF, SHF, and UFI were 2.23, 0.65, and 0.26, and that of DALYs were 127.56, 28.10, and 17.64, respectively. Decreasing trends in the ASRs of FV were observed in most regions and countries worldwide over the past three decades, particularly that of PVF in Estonia.

Conclusion

The FV burden was heterogeneous across regions and countries, which was deeply subjected to socioeconomic factors. The findings highlighted that specific prevention strategies and interventions were required, particularly in the high prevalent settings.

Firearm violence against children in the United States: Trends in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the patterns of firearm violence against children before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the patterns of specific types of firearm violence against children over time (2016-2020).

METHODS

Retrospective firearm violence data were obtained from the Gun Violence Archive. The rate of firearm violence was weighted per 100,000 children. A scatterplot was created to depict the rate of total annual child-involved shooting incidents over time; with a linear trendline fit to 2016 to 2019 data to show projected versus actual 2020 firearm violence. All 50 states were categorized into either "strong gun law" (n = 25) or "weak gun law" (n = 25) cohorts. Multivariate linear regressions were performed for number of child-involved shootings over time.

RESULTS

There were a total of 1,076 child-involved shootings in 2020, 811 in 2019, and 803 in 2018. The median total child-involved shooting incidents per month per 100,000 children increased from 2018 to 2020 (0.095 vs. 0.124, p = 0.003) and from 2019 to 2020 (0.097 vs. 0.124, p = 0.010). Child killed by adult incidents also increased in 2020 compared with 2018 (p = 0.024) and 2019 (p = 0.049). The scatterplot demonstrates that total child-involved shootings in addition to both fatal and nonfatal firearm violence incidents exceeded the projected number of incidents extrapolated from 2016 to 2019 data. Multivariate linear regression demonstrated that, compared with weak gun law states, strong gun law states were associated with decreased monthly total child-involved shooting incidents between 2018 and 2020 (p < 0.001), as well as between 2019 and 2020 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Child-involved shooting incidents increased significantly in 2020 surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that gun law strength was associated with a decreased rate of monthly child-involved firearm violence, public health and legislative efforts should be made to protect this vulnerable population from exposure to firearms.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological, level III.

The mitigating effect of low firearm background check requirements on firearm homicides in border states

BACKGROUND

Firearm-related violence is a significant public health issue in the US. Research has found an increase in guns used in crimes sourced from low gun law states into high gun law states. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of distance from states without universal background checks (UBC), background checks at shows (BCS), or permit to purchase (PTP) laws on firearm homicide rates in states with them.

METHODS

States were identified based on their enactment of laws that are designed to prevent the private sale of firearms to criminals. Demographic data for each county were obtained for the years 2014 through 2017. The border distance from a county in a state with the evaluated gun laws to the nearest border state without the gun laws was obtained using Google Maps. Multiple regression analyses were performed to test the relationship between border distance and firearm homicide rates.

RESULTS

The regression model evaluating all formats found the border distance was negatively associated with firearm homicides (p=.009). The parameter estimate indicated as border distance increased, the firearm homicide rate decreased. When counties with UBC or PTP on all guns were evaluated separately from all formats model, the statistical significance was lost (p=.62). In counties where all handgun sales either require a background check or a PTP is required, the distance was also not statistically significant (p=.11).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that there may be a mitigating effect on the reduction of firearm homicides in states that require background checks or PTP on private sales when there is a state in close proximity that did not have these laws. Limited counties at certain distances may have contributed to the insignificant findings in other models.

Annual Research Review: Youth firearm violence disparities in the United States and implications for prevention

OBJECTIVE

Research has identified the United States (U.S.) as a global outlier in its firearm ownership rates, with a correspondingly higher risk of youth firearm violence compared to other countries. The relative extent of disparities in youth firearm violence within the U.S. has been less clear. Little is known about factors in the social ecology driving these disparities and whether current firearm violence prevention approaches sufficiently address them.

METHOD

Applying a health disparities framework, we synthesized epidemiological, sociological, and prevention science literatures, emphasizing structural inequalities in youth sociocultural positionality in life course developmental context. We also highlighted findings from national injury data and other studies regarding the magnitude and impacts of youth firearm violence disparities.

RESULTS

The burden of firearm violence varied markedly at intersections of gender, race, place, developmental stage, and homicidal or suicidal intent. Firearm homicide among Black boys and young men (ages 15-24) was at outlier levels - many times greater than the rates of any other demographic group, developmental stage, or violence intent, particularly in urban settings. Recent research has operationalized structural racism and implicated historically racialized spaces as a root cause of this disparity. In contrast, elevated firearm suicide rates were found among Native and White boys and young men in rural settings; firearm-related cultural attitudes and gender socialization were points of consideration to explain these disparities. We highlighted research-based youth firearm violence preventive interventions, and emphasized gaps in efforts focused on structural and sociocultural factors.

CONCLUSIONS

More explicit attention to reducing firearm homicide among Black boys and young men and firearm suicide among Native and rural White boys and young men is urgently needed and has potential to substantially lower overall rates of firearm violence in the U.S.

Addressing Key Gaps in Existing Longitudinal Research and Establishing a Pathway Forward for Firearm Violence Prevention Research

The main purpose of this article and this special section is to encourage greater attention to the key gaps that exist in our understanding of the epidemiology of adolescent firearm violence and to provide a pathway forward for future longitudinal research that will inform prevention efforts. This increased attention is especially salient given: (a) firearms are the leading cause of death for adolescents and emerging adults in the United States, with the majority of these deaths due to interpersonal violence; (b) significant health and social disparities with regards to the populations that are most affected by interpersonal firearm violence have been documented; and, (c) limitations in federal research funding during the past 30 years have created a deficit of knowledge about key risk and protective factors necessary to inform evidence-based prevention efforts. We discuss the implications of the articles in this special edition for existing and novel prevention programs. We also identify key considerations for future epidemiological research, including the need for a greater focus on collecting longitudinal data among nationally representative samples enriched with subgroups of at-risk youth, the need to examine the role of protective factors and mediating variables within existing and novel theoretical models of firearm risk behaviors, the need to examine key factors across all levels of the socio-ecological model, and the need to incorporate novel and innovative research designs, methods and analyses.

Changes in traumatic mechanisms of injury in Southern California related to COVID-19: Penetrating trauma as a second pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a statewide stay-at-home (SAH) order in California beginning March 19, 2020, forcing large-scale behavioral changes and taking an emotional and economic toll. The effects of SAH orders on the trauma population remain unknown. We hypothesized an increase in rates of penetrating trauma, gunshot wounds, suicide attempts, and domestic violence in the Southern California trauma population after the SAH order.

METHODS

A multicenter retrospective analysis of all trauma patients presenting to 11 American College of Surgeons levels I and II trauma centers spanning seven counties in California was performed. Demographic data, injury characteristics, clinical data, and outcomes were collected. Patients were divided into three groups based on injury date: before SAH from January 1, 2020, to March 18, 2020 (PRE), after SAH from March 19, 2020, to June 30, 2020 (POST), and a historical control from March 19, 2019, to June 30, 2019 (CONTROL). POST was compared with both PRE and CONTROL in two separate analyses.

RESULTS

Across all periods, 20,448 trauma patients were identified (CONTROL, 7,707; PRE, 6,022; POST, 6,719). POST had a significantly increased rate of penetrating trauma (13.0% vs. 10.3%, p < 0.001 and 13.0% vs. 9.9%, p < 0.001) and gunshot wounds (4.5% vs. 2.4%, p = 0.002 and 4.5% vs. 3.7%, p = 0.025) compared with PRE and CONTROL, respectively. POST had a suicide attempt rate of 1.9% and a domestic violence rate of 0.7%, which were similar to PRE (p = 0.478, p = 0.514) and CONTROL (p = 0.160, p = 0.618).

CONCLUSION

This multicenter Southern California study demonstrated an increased rate of penetrating trauma and gunshot wounds after the COVID-19 SAH orders but no difference in attempted suicide or domestic violence rates. These findings may provide useful information regarding resource utilization and a target for societal intervention during the current or future pandemic(s).

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological, level IV.

New York State and the Nation: Trends in Firearm Purchases and Firearm Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

The impacts of social stressors on violence during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are unknown. We hypothesized that firearm purchases and violence would increase surrounding the pandemic. This study determined the impact of COVID-19 and shelter-in-place (SIP) orders on firearm purchases and incidents in the United States (US) and New York State (NYS).

METHODS

Scatterplots reflected trends in firearm purchases, incidents, and deaths over a 16-month period (January 2019 to April 2020). Bivariate comparisons of SIP and non-SIP jurisdictions before and after SIP (February 2020 vs. April 2020) and April 2020 vs. April 2019 were performed with the Mann-Whitney U test.

RESULTS

The incidence of COVID-19 in the US increased between February and April 2020 from 24 to 1 067 660 and in NYS from 0 to 304 372. When comparing February to March to April in the US, firearm purchases increased 33.6% then decreased 22.0%, whereas firearm incidents increased 12.2% then again increased by 3.6% and firearm deaths increased 23.8% then decreased in April by 3.8%. In NYS, comparing February to March to April 2020, firearm purchases increased 87.6% then decreased 54.8%, firearm incidents increased 110.1% then decreased 30.8%, and firearm deaths increased 57.1% then again increased by 6.1%. In both SIP and non-SIP jurisdictions, April 2020 firearm purchases, incidents, deaths, and injuries were similar to April 2019 and February 2020 (all P = NS).

DISCUSSION

Coronavirus disease 2019-related stressors may have triggered an increase in firearm purchases nationally and within NYS in March 2020. Firearm incidents also increased in NYS. SIP orders had no effect on firearm purchases and firearm violence.

Mediation of Firearm Violence and Preterm Birth by Pregnancy Complications and Health Behaviors: Addressing Structural and Postexposure Confounding

Firearm violence may indirectly affect health among pregnant women living in neighborhoods where it is endemic. We used birth, death, emergency department, and hospitalization data from California from 2007-2011 to estimate the association between living in a neighborhood with high firearm violence and preterm delivery, and assessed whether there was mediation by diagnoses of pregnancy complications and health behaviors during pregnancy. We used an ensemble machine learning algorithm to predict the propensity for neighborhoods to be classified as having a high level of firearm violence. Risk differences for the total effect and stochastic direct and indirect effects were estimated using targeted maximum likelihood. Residence in high-violence neighborhoods was associated with higher prevalence of preterm birth (risk difference (RD) = 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13, 0.80), infections (RD = 1.34, 95% CI: -0.17, 2.86), asthma (RD = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.03, 1.48), and substance use (RD = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.00, 1.47). The largest indirect effects for the association between violence and preterm birth were observed for infection (stochastic indirect effect = 0.04, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.08) and substance use (stochastic indirect effect = 0.04, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.06). Firearm violence was associated with risk of preterm delivery, and this association was partially mediated by infection and substance use.

The Ethics and Politics of Gun Violence Research

Gun violence is an epidemic that affects hundreds of thousands of Americans each year. Despite gun violence being disproportionately more lethal than other leading causes of trauma, there is a dearth of research being carried out on its root causes and prevention strategies. For the past 20 years, lobbying and politics have interfered with the forward progress of gun violence research. Physicians have a history of producing actionable public-health change and have an ethical obligation to fight for the research that will benefit their patients.

Psychiatric Disorders and Gun Carrying among Adolescents in the United States

OBJECTIVES

To estimate associations between psychiatric disorders and gun carrying among adolescents and to estimate the total number of adolescents in the US who have psychiatric disorders and report carrying guns.

STUDY DESIGN

We used cross-sectional data from the National Comorbidity Survey - Adolescent Supplement, a nationally representative sample of adolescents age 13-18 years (N = 10 123; response rate = 75.6%). Psychiatric disorders were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Gun carrying in the 30 days prior to the interview was assessed by self-report. We used multivariable Poisson regression to test for associations.

RESULTS

The analytic sample included 10 112 adolescents, 2.4% of whom reported carrying a gun in the prior 30 days. The prevalence of gun carrying was greater among adolescents with conduct disorder (adjusted prevalence ratio [APR] = 1.88, 95% CI 1.38, 2.57), drug use disorders (APR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.05, 3.45), and specific phobias (APR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.07, 2.22) compared with adolescents without these disorders. We estimated that 1.1% (95% CI 0.77, 1.48) of adolescents with a disorder associated with self- or other-directed violence also carry guns. Nationally, that is approximately 272 000 adolescents with both risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Specific psychiatric disorders are associated with an increased risk of gun carrying among adolescents, but the vast majority of adolescents with psychiatric disorders did not report gun carrying. Targeted efforts to assess access to and use of firearms in mental healthcare and other clinical settings are important, as are efforts to identify population approaches to prevention.

Firearm Violence and Effects on Concealed Gun Carrying: Large Debate and Small Effects

Research has yet to identify a predictive relationship between crime and the issuance of aggregated concealed gun permits. The present study examines if a macro-level relationship exists between both concealed carry firearm applications and permits and violent crime committed with a firearm. Florida county-level data for concealed carry applications and violent crime are combined with police employment, socioeconomic, political, and firearm subculture variables across two temporal periods using both county and year fixed effects models. Unstandardized negative binomial regressions are employed with multiple alternative model specifications and diagnostic tests. Findings indicate a positive association between crime, especially those committed with a firearm, and concealed carry applications and permits. The effect size of firearm violent crime on concealed carry applications and permits is minimal. There is a demonstrable link between firearm violence and concealed carry applications and permits issued, net all covariates. Findings should be tempered by the minimal effect sizes.

The Association Between Urban Tree Cover and Gun Assault: A Case-Control and Case-Crossover Study

Green space and vegetation may play a protective role against urban violence. We investigated whether being near urban tree cover during outdoor activities was related to being assaulted with a gun. We conducted geographic information systems-assisted interviews with boys and men aged 10-24 years in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, including 135 patients who had been shot with a firearm and 274 community controls, during 2008-2011. Each subject reported a step-by-step mapped account of where and with whom they traveled over a full day from waking until being assaulted or going to bed. Geocoded path points were overlaid on mapped layers representing tree locations and place-specific characteristics. Conditional logistic regressions were used to compare case subjects versus controls (case-control) and case subjects at the time of injury versus times earlier that day (case-crossover). When comparing cases at the time of assault to controls matched at the same time of day, being under tree cover was inversely associated with gunshot assault (odds ratio (OR) = 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.55, 0.88), especially in low-income areas (OR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.87). Case-crossover models confirmed this inverse association overall (OR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.89) and in low-income areas (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.88). Urban greening and tree cover may hold promise as proactive strategies to decrease urban violence.

Falling through the cracks: the decline of mental health care and firearm violence

BACKGROUND

This paper argues that the decline in the availability of long-term, intensive mental health services, particularly through state mental health hospital systems, has had negative impacts on firearm-related deaths and possibly on the incidence of mass shooting events.

AIMS

Establish the effect of reduced availability of long-term, intensive mental health treatment on firearm-related violence in the United States.

METHOD

Ordinary least squares regressions on cross-sectional data of US states.

RESULTS

Mass shooting perpetrators had significantly higher rates of mental illness than the general population. In addition, using simple regressions, this paper's results demonstrate that increasing the number of state psychiatric hospital beds is associated with lower rates of homicide.

CONCLUSIONS

The shrinking number of intensive, long-term mental health facilities in US states has had many negative consequences, including higher rates of firearm homicide.

Effects of the repeal of Missouri's handgun purchaser licensing law on homicides

In the USA, homicide is a leading cause of death for young males and a major cause of racial disparities in life expectancy for men. There are intense debate and little rigorous research on the effects of firearm sales regulation on homicides. This study estimates the impact of Missouri's 2007 repeal of its permit-to-purchase (PTP) handgun law on states' homicide rates and controls for changes in poverty, unemployment, crime, incarceration, policing levels, and other policies that could potentially affect homicides. Using death certificate data available through 2010, the repeal of Missouri's PTP law was associated with an increase in annual firearm homicides rates of 1.09 per 100,000 (+23%) but was unrelated to changes in non-firearm homicide rates. Using Uniform Crime Reporting data from police through 2012, the law's repeal was associated with increased annual murders rates of 0.93 per 100,000 (+16%). These estimated effects translate to increases of between 55 and 63 homicides per year in Missouri.

Effects of Baltimore's Safe Streets Program on gun violence: a replication of Chicago's CeaseFire Program

Chicago's CeaseFire program is an evidence-based public health approach to preventing gun violence. Baltimore is one of many US cities attempting to replicate the program. We compared changes in the number of homicide and nonfatal shooting incidents per month in four intervention neighborhoods with changes in high-crime comparison areas (police posts) without the intervention, while controlling for several measures of police activity and baseline levels of homicide and nonfatal shootings. In South Baltimore there were large program-related reductions in homicide and nonfatal shooting incidents. Among three East Baltimore program sites, the program was associated with a reduction of homicides in one area, a reduction in nonfatal shootings in another area, and a simultaneous increase in homicides and decrease in nonfatal shootings in another area. In some instances, program effects extended to neighborhoods bordering the intervention areas. Program-related reductions in homicides appear to be linked with conflict mediations conducted by program outreach workers.