Factors associated with declining under-five mortality rates from 2000 to 2013: an ecological analysis of 46 African countries

Population attributable fractions for modifiable risk factors of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality in 48 low- and middle-income countries

Background

Identifying the modifiable risk factors for childhood mortality using population-attributable fractions (PAFs) estimates can inform public health planning and resource allocation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We estimated PAFs for key population-level modifiable risk factors of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality in LMICs.

Methods

We used the most recent Demographic and Health Survey data sets (2010-22) from 48 LMICs, encompassing 35 sub-Saharan African countries and 13 countries from South and Southeast Asia (n = 506 989). We used generalised linear latent mixed models to compute odds ratios (ORs), and we calculated the PAFs adjusted for commonality using ORs and prevalence estimates for key modifiable risk factors.

Results

The highest PAFs of neonatal mortality were attributed to delayed initiation of breastfeeding (>1 hour of birth) (PAF = 23.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 23.1, 24.8), uncleaned cooking fuel (PAF = 6.2; 95% CI = 6.4, 7.8), infrequent antenatal care (ANC) visits (PAF = 4.3; 95% CI = 3.3, 5.9), maternal lack of formal education (PAF = 3.9; 95% CI = 2.7, 5.3), and mother's lacking two doses of tetanus injections (PAF = 3.0; 95% CI = 1.9, 3.9). These five modifiable risk factors contributed to 41.4% (95% CI = 35.6, 47.0) of neonatal deaths in the 48 LMICs. Similarly, a combination of these five risk factors contributed to 40.5% of infant deaths. Further, delayed initiation of breastfeeding (PAF = 15.8; 95% CI = 15.2, 16.2), unclean cooking fuel (PAF = 9.6; 95% CI = 8.4, 10.7), mothers lacking formal education (PAF = 7.9; 95% CI = 7.0, 8.9), infrequent ANC visits (PAF = 4.0; 95% CI = 3.3, 4.7), and poor toilet facilities (PAF = 3.4; 95% CI = 2.6, 4.3) were attributed to 40.8% (95% CI = 36.4, 45.2) of under-five deaths.

Conclusions

Given the current global economic climate, policymakers should prioritise these modifiable risk factors. Key recommendations include ensuring that women enter pregnancy in optimal health, prioritising the presence of skilled newborn attendants for timely and proper breastfeeding initiation, and enhancing home-based care during the postnatal period and beyond.

The influence of parental occupational status on under-five mortality in Ethiopia

Few studies have examined the mediators of the association between parental occupational status and under-five mortality risk in Ethiopia. We examine the association between parental occupational status and under-five mortality risk in Ethiopia and the role of two mediating variables, antenatal care visits and delivery by a health professional, in this relationship. Using birth data from the nationally representative 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey, the study finds that parental occupation, antenatal care visits, and delivery by a health professional are associated with under-five mortality risk. The study also finds that after controlling for mediating variables, parents engaged in professional, agricultural, and manual labor still have lower odds of under-five mortality risk than children of non-working parents. Future research should focus on the pathway from parental employment to child mortality risk, not through access to antenatal care and delivery by health professionals.

Mother's education and infant survival in Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

Few studies in Ethiopia have explored the impact of the mothers' education on infant survival. Therefore, this study aimed to identify and analyze the proximate factors in the relationship between maternal education and infant survival in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study used the nationally representative 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey dataset. It analyzed a sample of 3831 newborn children using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The findings revealed that infants born to educated mothers had lower odds of infant mortality than those born to mothers without formal education. Specifically, infants whose mothers had completed secondary school and had a better antenatal care attendance rate had 49.9% lower odds of infant mortality than those born to mothers with no formal education and a poor antenatal care attendance rate. Furthermore, infants whose mothers had at least some postsecondary education and who used delivery by health-care professionals, clean drinking water, and improved toilet facilities had 65.3%, 56.3%, and 68.6% lower odds of infant mortality, respectively, than those born to mothers with no formal education and who did not use those facilities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study concluded that the mothers' educational disparity is intimately tied to infant mortality, and that access to formal education, mainly for women, increases infant survival in Ethiopia. Future research should focus on mothers without formal education who do not have access to antenatal care visits for safe pregnancy, delivery by health-care professionals, clean drinking water, and improved toilet facilities in Ethiopia and elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Exploring spatiotemporal trends and impacts of health resources and services on under-5 mortality in West African countries, 2010-2019: a spatial data analysis

Background

West African countries experienced the highest under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), the lowest life expectancy, and the poorest economic development. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal trend of U5MR and spatial spillover effects of health resources and services to provide a basis for establishing health policies and international cooperative mechanisms in West Africa.

Methods

We retrieved data from the World Health Organization's Global Health Observatory, the United Nations Human Development Report, and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis and Moran's I method were used to examine the temporal trend and spatial dependence of U5MR, respectively. Spatial regression analysis was used to examine the spatial spillover effects.

Results

The long-term downward trends in U5MR were divided into multiple segments by two or three change points in 2013, 2014, or 2015, and the annual percentage change after 2015 was higher than before 2015. Global Moran's I was positive, significantly indicating positive spatial autocorrelation, which increased from 0.2850 (p = 0.0210) to 0.3597 (p = 0.0080). Based on spatial regression analysis, human development index (HDI), physicians density, nurses and midwives density, health center density, percentage of infants lacking immunization for diphtheria and measles, and coverage rate of at least one antenatal visit had negative spatial spillover effects on U5MR. HDI had the strongest negative correlation (β = -0.0187 to -0.1054, p < 0.0001). Current health expenditure (CHE) per capita had positive spatial spillover effects on U5MR.

Conclusion

This study revealed the spatiotemporal trend of U5MR in West African countries and spatial spillover effects of health resources and services. Promoting economic development, increasing health human resources, health expenditure, vaccination rate, antenatal care coverage, and the proportion of health professionals attending births not only reduced the local U5MR but also exerted spatial spillover effects on adjacent countries. The West African Health Organization may consider regional spillover mechanisms to develop regional health policy and intervention cooperation mechanisms, which will contribute to achieving the sustainable development goal on U5MR, Africa Agenda 2063, and universal health coverage.

Geographic disparities in the time to under-five mortality in Ghana

Globally, there has been tremendous advancement in medicine and child healthcare with increased life expectancy. That notwithstanding, the risk of under-five mortality ─ children dying before their fifth birthday remains relatively high in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa such as Ghana. In Ghana, under-five mortality remains a major public health problem that requires significant policy interventions. Using data from the 2017 Maternal Health Survey (n = 4785), we examined the geographic disparities in the time to under-five mortality in Ghana. The Kaplan Meier estimator showed significant (Log-rank: p< 0.001) rural-urban differences in the time to under-five mortality in Ghana. A disaggregated cox proportional hazards analysis showed that despite wide consensus that children in urban areas have a high survival rate, children in urban areas in northern regions of Ghana, especially the Upper West (HR = 4.40, p < 0.05) and Upper East (HR = 5.37, p < 0.01) Regions were significantly at increased risk of dying before the age of five compared to children in urban areas in the Greater Accra Region. A rural-urban comparison showed that children born in rural areas in all the other regions of Ghana were at a higher risk of dying before the age of five when compared to their counterparts in the rural areas of Greater Accra Region. Other factors such as sex of child, mothers' age and use of the internet, number of household members, ethnicity and household wealth were significantly associated with the timing of under-five mortality in Ghana. Healthcare policies and programs such as immunizations and affordable child healthcare services should be prioritized especially in rural areas of regions with a high risk of child mortality. Also, there is a need to improve healthcare delivery in urban areas, particularly in northern Ghana, where deplorable healthcare service infrastructure and delivery coupled with high poverty rates put children at risk of dying before their fifth birthday.

What is the impact of national public expenditure and its allocation on neonatal and child mortality? A machine learning analysis

BACKGROUND

Understanding the impact of national public expenditure and its allocation on child mortality may help governments move towards target 3.2 proposed in the 2030 Agenda. The objective of this study was to estimate the impacts of governmental expenditures, total, on health, and on other sectors, on neonatal mortality and mortality of children aged between 28 days and five years.

METHODS

This study has an ecological design with a population of 147 countries, with data between 2012 and 2019. Two steps were used: first, the Generalized Propensity Score of public spending was calculated; afterward, the Generalized Propensity Score was used to estimate the expenditures' association with mortality rates. The primary outcomes were neonatal mortality rates (NeoRt) and mortality rates in children between 28 days and 5 years (NeoU5Rt).

RESULTS

The 1% variation in Int$ Purchasing Power Parity (Int$ PPP) per capita in total public expenditures, expenditure in health, and in other sectors were associated with a variation of -0.635 (95% CI -1.176, -0.095), -2.17 (95% CI -3.051, -1.289) -0.632 (95% CI -1.169, -0.095) in NeoRt, respectively The same variation in public expenditures in sectors other than health, was associates with a variation of -1.772 (95% CI -6.219, -1.459) on NeoU5Rt. The results regarding the impact of total and health public spending on NeoU5Rt were not consistent.

CONCLUSION

Public investments impact mortality in children under 5 years of age. Likely, the allocation of expenditures between the health sector and the other social sectors will have different impacts on mortality between the NeoRt and the NeoU5Rt.

Improved Yet Unsafe: At the Light of NFHS-V

Following UNICEF’s analysis of National Family Health Survey-III Data (NFHS-III), it was opined that households with access to better sanitation and better access to improved water sources have much better infant survival rates than the others. Sahu et al. (2015, The Indian journal of medical research, 141(5), 709), Arun et al. (2017, International Conference on Cognitive Computing and Information Processing (pp. 81–92), Springer) and Tripathy and Mishra (2017, Journal of Tropical Pediatrics, 63(6), 431–439) supported these findings. However, Banerjee (2020a , Journal of Health Management, 22(1), 57–66), analysing NFHS-IV data, has vehemently criticised such findings and showed using regression with robust standard errors that improved access to better water sources leads to higher infant mortality. In another article published in the same year, Banerjee (2020b , Journal of Health Management, 22(3), 466–471) explained this paradox. Now with NFHS-V data coming out, time is apt to test the robustness of Banerjee’s findings (2002a). However, owing to the incomplete NFHS-V data published so far, unlike Banerjee (2002a) that has used data of 29 states, the present analysis is based on only 17 states. The findings support that the findings of Banerjee (2002a) were robust.

Socio-economic and proximate determinants of under-five mortality in Guinea

BACKGROUND

The death of children under-five years is one of the critical issues in public health and improving child survival continues to be a matter of urgent concern. In this paper, we assessed the proximate and socio-economics determinants of child mortality in Guinea.

METHODS

Using the 2018 Guinea Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS), we extracted demographic and mortality data of 4,400 children under-five years. Both descriptive and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Under-five mortality was 111 deaths per 1,000 live births in Guinea. The likelihood of death was higher among children born to mothers who belong to other religions compared to Christians (aOR = 2.86, 95% CI: 1.10-7.41), smaller than average children compared to larger than average children (aOR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.28-3.04) and those whose mothers had no postnatal check-up visits after delivery (aOR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.13-2.63). Conversely, the odds of death in children with 2-3 birth rank & >2 years of birth interval compared to ≥4 birth rank and ≤2 years of birth interval were low (aOR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.34-0.83).

CONCLUSION

We found that household/individual-level socioeconomic and proximate factors predict under-five mortality in Guinea. With just about a decade left to the 2030 deadline of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), concerted efforts across all key stakeholders, including government and development partners, need to be geared towards implementing interventions that target these predictors.

Patterns, Outcomes and Predictors of Pediatric Medical Admissions at Gadarif Hospital in Eastern Sudan

BACKGROUND

The reduction of childhood mortality is a reliable indicator of a national health system's progress and improvement. Sudan's population is still suffering from communicable diseases, with a considerably higher mortality rate among children. Efforts are therefore needed to reduce mortality and achieve the Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals. This study was conducted to determine the morbidity, mortality and outcomes of children admitted to Gadarif Hospital in eastern Sudan.

METHOD

A retrospective study was conducted by reviewing the medical files of pediatric patients who were admitted to Gadarif Hospital between March 1, 2019 and March 31, 2020.

RESULT

A total of 740 medical files were reviewed. Most, 453 (61.2%) of the admissions were males. The median (interquartile range) age was 3.0 (8.0) years and 433 (58.8%) of the admissions were under 5 years of age. The median (interquartile range) of the length of hospital stay was 9.0 (12.0) days. Visceral leishmaniasis, malnutrition, severe malaria, sickle cell disease, acute watery diarrhea, severe anemia (regardless of its cause), septicemia and acute respiratory infection were the most common causes of admission. The mortality rate was 5.7%, and it was significantly higher in females than males [24/287 (8.4%) vs. 18/453 (4.0%), P = 0.01] and in children under 5 years [36/433 (8.3%) vs. 6/307 (2.0%), P < 0.001]. Malnutrition, visceral leishmaniasis, septicemia and meningitis/encephalitis were the main diseases causing death in the study population. The case fatality rate was not significantly different in malnutrition than in visceral leishmaniasis [9/93 (9.7%) vs. 7/178 (3.9%), P = 0.05].

CONCLUSION

The main causes of morbidity and mortality for children admitted to Gadarif Pediatric Hospital were communicable diseases. The mortality rate was 5.7%. Females and children under 5 years were the most vulnerable groups for fatality.

Use of probiotics to reduce infections and death and prevent colonization with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria among newborn infants in Tanzania (ProRIDE Trial): study protocol for a randomized controlled clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) has emerged as an urgent global health threat and is by the World Health Organization ranked as priority 1 among pathogens in need of new treatment. Studies have shown high mortality in Tanzanian children with ESBL-E infections. Gut colonization of ESBL-E, which is a potential risk factor of ESBL-E infections, is reported to be very high among children in Tanzania. Probiotics may potentially reduce gut colonization of multidrug-resistant bacteria. However, there is limited data on whether probiotics may reduce ESBL-E carriage in infants. The ProRIDE Trial aims to evaluate whether the use of probiotics can reduce morbidity and mortality among infants in Haydom, Tanzania, and whether this effect is associated with a reduction in ESBL-E colonization and/or infections.

METHODS/DESIGN

This large randomized double-blinded placebo-controlled trial aims to recruit 2000 newborn infants at Haydom Lutheran Hospital and the surrounding area in the period of November 2020 to November 2021. Participants will be enrolled from days 0 to 3 after birth and randomized to receive probiotics or placebo for 4 weeks. Participants will be followed-up for 6 months, during which three visits will be made to collect clinical and demographic information, as well as rectal swabs and fecal samples which will be subjected to laboratory analysis. The primary composite outcome is the prevalence of death and/or hospitalization at 6 months of age.

DISCUSSION

As the use of probiotics may give a more favorable gut composition, and thereby improve health and reduce morbidity and mortality, the results may have implications for future therapy guidelines in Africa and internationally.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04172012. Registered on November 21, 2019.

Factors associated with diarrhoea and acute respiratory infection in children under-5 years old in Ghana: an analysis of a national cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoea and acute respiratory infection (ARI) are major causes of morbidity and mortality in children under-5 years old in Ghana. The aim of the study was to assess factors associated with diarrhoea and ARI in children under-5 years old.

METHODS

We analysed nationally representative data from the 2017-2018 Ghana Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) on 8879 children under-5 years old. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the factors associated with diarrhoea and ARI. We applied sample weights, stratification and clustering to account for the sampling design of the MICS.

RESULTS

The prevalence of diarrhoea was 17.0% (95% CI: 15.70, 18.24%). Children aged 6-11 months [Adjusted prevalence odds ratio (aPOR): 2.06, 95% CI: 1.45, 2.92], and 12-23 months (aPOR: 2.37, 95% CI: 1.67, 3.35), had higher prevalence of diarrhoea compared to children aged 0-5 months. Children whose mothers had a college or higher education (aPOR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.78), and a secondary education (aPOR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.86), had 59% and 34% lower odds of diarrhoea respectively, compared to children whose mothers had no formal education. Children from the richest households (aPOR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.86), had 42% lower odds of diarrhoea compared to children from the poorest households. Children resident in rural areas had 22% lower odds of diarrhoea compared to their peers in urban areas (aPOR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.63, 0.98). The prevalence of ARI was 33.3% (95% CI: 31.72, 34.82%). Children aged 6-11 months (aPOR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.93), and 12-23 months (aPOR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.82), had higher prevalence of ARI compared to children aged 0-5 months.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that the prevalence of diarrhoea and ARI among children aged 6-11 and 12-23 months was higher compared to children aged 0-5 months. Children under-5 years old whose mothers had a secondary or higher education had a lower prevalence of diarrhoea compared to children whose mothers had no formal education.

Intimate partner violence, contextual factors and under-5 mortality: a multilevel analysis of cross-sectional surveys from 20 Sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

Under-5 mortality remains a public health concern in low-income and middle-income countries. Africa contributes about one-fifth of the burden of global under-5 mortality; intimate partner violence (IPV) and polygyny, which are highly prevalent on the continent, have been linked to under-5 mortality at the individual level. This study examined the relationship between IPV and polygyny as contextual factors and the experience of under-5 mortality among women in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

METHODS

We used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of 20 African countries with available data between 2010 and 2018 as of April 2020. We defined the experience of under-5 mortality as a woman's loss of at least one child before their fifth birthday. The DHS primary sampling unit was used to define contextual factors. The study involved a multilevel logistic regression analysis of 227 121 women of childbearing age (15-49).

RESULTS

A quarter (24.5%) of women have lost at least one child under 5 years old, more than two-thirds (40.1%) have experienced at least one form of IPV, and about two-thirds of women were in polygynous union. Our multilevel logistic regression showed that parity, polygynous union and experience of IPV were strongly associated with women's experience of under-5 mortality. The results showed that 39.9% and 19.2% of variances in odds of a woman losing a child before their fifth birthday are attributable to community-level and country-level factors, respectively. Contextual prevalence of IPV, polygynous union and gender equity attenuate the strength of associations observed at the individual level. The interaction between contextual prevalence of polygyny and IPV exacerbates the risk of under-5 mortality. Women in SSA countries with higher Human Development Index were less likely to experience under-5 mortality.

CONCLUSION

This study established that beyond individual-level effects, contextual prevalence of IPV and polygyny and their interactions shape women's experience of under-5 mortality in Africa. In designing policies and interventions to address under-5 mortality, contextual factors, especially those linked to culturally laden social norms and practices, must be considered to ensure effectiveness and sustainable impact.

Measuring child survival for the Millennium Development Goals in Africa: what have we learned and what more is needed to evaluate the Sustainable Development Goals?

Reducing child mortality is a key global health challenge. We examined reasons for greater or lesser success in meeting under-five mortality rate reductions, i.e. Millennium Development Goal #4, between 1990 and 2015 in Sub-Saharan Africa where child mortality remains high. We first examined factors associated with child mortality from all World Health Organization African Region nations during the Millennium Development Goal period. This analysis was followed by case studies of the facilitators and barriers to Millennium Development Goal #4 in four countries – Kenya, Liberia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Quantitative indicators, policy documents, and qualitative interviews and focus groups were collected from each country to examine factors within and across countries related to child mortality. We found familiar themes that highlighted the need for both specific services (e.g. primary care access, emergency obstetric and neonatal care) and general management (e.g. strong health governance and leadership, increasing community health workers, quality of care). We also identified methodological opportunities and challenges to assessing progress in child health, which can provide insights to similar efforts during the Sustainable Development Goal period. Specifically, it is important for countries to adapt general international goals and measurements to their national context, considering baseline mortality rates and health information systems, to develop country-specific goals. It will also be critical to develop more rigorous measurement tools and indicators to accurately characterize maternal, neonatal, and child health systems, particularly in the area of governance and leadership. Valuable lessons can be learned from Millennium Development Goal successes and failures, as well as how they are evaluated. As countries seek to lower child mortality further during the Sustainable Development Goal period, it will be necessary to prioritize and support countries in quantitative and qualitative data collection to assess and contextualize progress, identifying areas needing improvement.

Frequentist and Bayesian Regression Approaches for Determining Risk Factors of Child Mortality in Ghana

Background

Child mortality is a global health problem. The United Nations' 2018 report on levels and trends on child mortality indicated that under-five mortality is one of the major public health problems in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. To further mitigate this problem, it is important to identify the drivers of under-five mortality in order to achieve the United Nations SDG Goal 3 target 2.

Methods

In this study, we investigated the effects of some selected risk factors on child mortality using data from the 2014 Ghana Demographic Health Survey. We modelled the relationship between child mortality and the risk factors using a logistic regression model under the frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. We used the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm to simulate parameter estimates from the posterior distributions, and statistical analyses were carried out using STATA version 14.1.

Results

Results from the frequentist framework are in line with those from the Bayesian framework. The results showed an increased risk of death among children who were delivered through caesarean and reduced relative odds of death among children whose sizes are average or large at birth and whose mothers have formal education.

Conclusions

There is a need for improved health facilities for better health-care for mothers and children. Education should, among other things, emphasise on the need for mothers to go for regular check-ups during antinatal and postnatal periods for improved mother and child health.

Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality (U5M) rates are among the health indicators of utmost importance globally. It is the goal 3 target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals that is expected to be reduced to at least 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. Despite a considerable reduction in U5M observed globally, several countries especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) like Ghana are struggling to meet this target. Evidence-based targeting and utilization of the available limited public health resources are critical for effective design of intervention strategies that will enhance under-five child survival. We aimed to estimate and map U5M risk, with the ultimate goal of identifying communities at high risk where interventions and further research can be targeted.

METHODS

The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Geostatistical analyses were conducted on 5884 children residing in 423 geographical clusters. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). We employed a geostatistical generalised linear mixed model to investigate both measured and unmeasured child specific and spatial risk factors for child survival. We then visualise child mortality by mapping the predictive probability of survival.

RESULTS

Of the total sampled under 5 children, 289 (4.91%) experienced the outcome of interest. Children born as multiple births were at increased risk of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (aOR: 8.2532, 95% CI: [5.2608-12.9477]) compared to singletons. Maternal age increased risk of mortality (aOR: 1.0325, 95% CI: [1.0128-1.0527]). Child's age (aOR: 0.2277, 95% CI: [0.1870-0.2771]) and number of children under 5 within each household (aOR: 0.3166, 95% CI: [0.2614-0.3835]) were shown to have a protective effect. Additionally, mothers with secondary education level (aOR: 0.6258, 95% CI: [0.4298-0.9114]) decreased the risk of U5M. The predicted U5M risk in 2014 was at 5.98%. Substantial residual spatial variations were observed in U5M.

CONCLUSION

The analysis found that multiple births is highly associated with increased U5M in Ghana. The high-resolution maps show areas and communities where interventions and further research for U5M can be prioritised to have health impact.

Demystifying the Aquatic Paradox: The Infant Mortality in India

It is evident that better access to improved water sources will lead to the lessening of infant mortality rate (IMR). However, for India, such inference is ambiguous. There is a strong group of academicians such as Sahu et al. (2015) , Arun et al. (2017) and Tripathy and Mishra (2017) and organizations such as UNICEF that firmly believe that if access to the improved water sources can be improved, then there would be tremendous social welfare and much betterment to the IMR.

On the other hand, Banerjee et al. (2020) have refuted such claims and opined that access to improved water sources increases the IMR. The empirical validation of their claim has been flawless, but they are somewhat silent on why such a direct relationship between IMR and improved water source exists. They have made a comment based on assumptions that it might be complacency that develops with access to improved water sources that refrain the people to consider any type of water treatment before passing it to infants for drinking. Such a comment might be valid, but neither is it built upon a sound literature review nor does it stand on strong empirics. At this juncture, the present article tests the claim of Banerjee et al. (2020) based on pure empirics.

Measuring socioeconomic and health financing inequality in maternal mortality in Colombia: a mixed methods approach

Background

Understanding health financing reforms and means is key to evaluate how maternal health has improved. Problems related to health financing policies are contributing to inadequate quality of care and inequitable use of healthcare by pregnant women, resulting in poor maternal health outcomes. The purpose of the study was to measure socioeconomic and health financing related inequality in maternal mortality in Colombia as well as identifying potential epicenters of this inequality.

Methods

The data used was obtained from National Information of Social Protection (Sispro), the Department of Planning and National Statistics Department. Maternal mortality ratios were calculated by health insurance scheme and disaggregated by health spending per capita quintiles to allow for closer examination of inequality. The Slope Index of Inequality and Concentration Index were estimated to express absolute and relative inequality. We conducted interviews with key informants involved in the implementation of health financing and maternal health policies.

Results

The main finding shows inequality in maternal mortality across regions and in particular in the subsidized health insurance. The contributory health insurance scheme is closing gaps over time, but inequality in the subsidized scheme is significantly widening, which impacts the severity of overall measurements of inequality. 20% of territories with the lowest health spending per capita have reached 35% of maternal mortality, and it such rates are worsening. This means that there is a marginal exclusion in which most of maternal deaths still occur in the regions with lowest resources.

Conclusions

Beyond the key issues in health financing, issues of quality of care must be addressed. The country must define its own approach to financing for maternal health coverage given its unique situation and starting point. Potential policy implications that emerged are: i) afro-Colombian, indigenous, poorer and migrant women must be put at the center of the maternal health care services; ii) better skills, Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn and Child Health RMNCH training and health worker retention strategies and training in rural, insular and remote geographical areas; ii) a better understanding of provider payment mechanisms and the incentives that influence provider behaviors; and iv) inequality prompt calls for a targeted approach, whereby care is directed toward the most disadvantaged regions.

Improved yet Unsafe: An Aquatic Perspective of Indian Infant Mortality

Infant mortality rate (IMR) is an important development indicator and a vital component of millennium development goals (MDGs) set by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). According to UNDP, so far India has only fared moderately in reducing IMR (Goal 4 of MDGs). India (32) ranks 144th among 196 countries regarding IMR as per the 2017 data availed from World Development Indicators. Its adjacent countries such as Bhutan (25.6), Bangladesh (26.9) and Nepal (27.8) have fared much better regarding infant survival. Numbers within the parentheses indicate the IMR of the respective country. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has identified that IMR among families with better access to improved drinking water sources and toilet is much lower than those bereft of the same. This inference has been drawn from National Family Health Survey 3 data (NFHS III). The present study investigates into the aforementioned relation analysing NFHS IV data. The result depicts that contrary to UNICEF’s findings, IMR increases with better accessibility to improved water sources. Further to this, the article shows that an additional aqua-related practice together with improved drinking water sources might lead to the betterment of IMR for India.

Trend in overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age in Uganda: 1995-2016

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are experiencing rising burdens of overweight/obesity and associated non-communicable diseases. As in other developing regions, this epidemiological transition in African countries is believed to be resulting from changes in dietary, sociodemographic structure and lifestyle factors. To date, not much is known about the prevalence and sociodemographic patterns of overweight/obesity in Uganda, especially among women of reproductive age. Therefore, this study aimed to address this research gap by using nationally representative data on women of this age group in Uganda.

METHODS

This study involved analysis of cross-sectional data on 19,395 women aged between 15 and 49 years from Uganda Demographic and Health Survey for the years 1995-2016. Overweight/obesity was measured using body mass index as per World Health Organization guidelines, and logistic regression methods were used to identify the sociodemographic predictors.

RESULTS

There has a been significant rise in the prevalence of overweight (9.77% in 1995 vs. 16.21% in 2016) and obesity (1.99% in 1995 vs. 6.21% in 2016) since the first survey in 1995, with the most noticeable increase occurring in the central region that accounted for a combined prevalence of 17.22% in 1995 compared with 37. 21% in 2016. Multivariate analysis showed an increased likelihood of having overweight/obesity among women who live in the urban areas, have primary and above primary education, from non-poor households and users of radio and TV.

CONCLUSION

During the last two decades, there has been a slow but steady rise in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age in Uganda. The present findings highlight the need for an enhanced attention on growing overweight/obesity within the broader goal improving maternal and child health in the country.

Understanding the determinants of infant and under-five mortality rates: a multivariate decomposition analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys in Ghana, 2003, 2008 and 2014

INTRODUCTION

Despite the decline in infant and under-five mortality rates since the last decade, Ghana did not meet the millennium development goal (MDG) 4 target. To implement effective interventions that could fast-track progress towards achieving the sustainable development goal 3 in 2030, factors contributing to the decline in child mortality throughout the MDG period and which factor(s) has/have been consistent in affecting child survival in the last decade need to be understood.

METHODS

This study used Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 2003, 2008 and 2014 and data from World Bank Development Indicators (2000-2018). We employed modified Poisson with robust SE and multivariate decomposition approach to assess risk factors of child mortality using DHS data from 2003, 2008 and 2014. Penalised regression was used assess the effect of 25 country-level contextual factors on child survival.

RESULTS

The risk of infant mortality is approximately five times higher among mothers who had multiple births compared with mothers who had single birth over the last decade (adjusted relative risk 4.6, 95% CI 3.2 to 6.6, p<0.001). An increase in the annual percentage of female labour force participation (FLFP) is associated with the reduction of approximately 10 and 18 infant and under-five annual deaths per 1000 live births, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that multiple births and shorter birth spacing are associated with increased risk of infant and under-five deaths over the last decade. Increased in FLFP, and the proportion of children sleeping under bed-net are associated with reduced risk of both infants and under-five deaths.

Lenses and levels: the why, what and how of measuring health system drivers of women's, children's and adolescents' health with a governance focus

Health systems are critical for health outcomes as they underpin intervention coverage and quality, promote users’ rights and intervene on the social determinants of health. Governance is essential for health system endeavours as it mobilises and coordinates a multiplicity of actors and interests to realise common goals. The inherently social, political and contextualised nature of governance, and health systems more broadly, has implications for measurement, including how the health of women, children and adolescents health is viewed and assessed, and for whom. Three common lenses, each with their own views of power dynamics in policy and programme implementation, include a service delivery lens aimed at scaling effective interventions, a societal lens oriented to empowering people with rights to effect change and a systems lens concerned with creating enabling environments for adaptive learning. We illustrate the implications of each lens for the why, what and how of measuring health system drivers across micro, meso and macro health systems levels, through three examples (digital health, maternal and perinatal death surveillance and review, and multisectoral action for adolescent health). Appreciating these underpinnings of measuring health systems and governance drivers of the health of women, children and adolescents is essential for a holistic learning and action agenda that engages a wider range of stakeholders, which includes, but also goes beyond, indicator-based measurement. Without a broadening of approaches to measurement and the types of research partnerships involved, continued investments in the health of women, children and adolescents will fall short.

Predictive model and determinants of under-five child mortality: evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Globally, millions of children aged below 5 years die every year and some of these deaths could have been prevented. Though a global problem, under-five mortality is also a major public health problem in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. Identification of drivers of mortality among children aged below 5 years is an important problem that needs to be addressed because it could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at achieving the United Nations SDG Goal 3 target 2. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model and to identify determinants of under-five mortality.

METHOD

The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Analyses were conducted on 5884 children. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). Single level binary logistic and multilevel logistic regression models were employed to investigate determinants of under-five mortality. The fit of the model was checked using Variance Inflation Factor and Likelihood Ratio tests. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to assess the predictive ability of the models. A p-value< 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

RESULTS

The study observed 289 (4.91%) deaths among children aged below 5 years. The study produced a good predictive model and identified increase in number of total children ever born, number of births in last 5 years, and mothers who did not intend to use contraceptive as critical risk factors that increase the odds of under-five mortality. Also, children who were born multiple and residing in certain geographical regions of Ghana is associated with increased odds of under-five mortality. Maternal education and being a female child decreased the odds of under-five mortality. No significant unobserved household-level variations in under-five mortality were found. The spatial map revealed regional differences in crude under-five mortality rate in the country.

CONCLUSION

This study identified critical risk factors for under-five mortality and strongly highlights the need for family planning, improvement in maternal education and addressing regional disparities in child health which could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at improving child survival.

Factors influencing rapid progress in child health in post-conflict Liberia: a mixed methods country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013

OBJECTIVES

Only 12 countries in the WHO's African region met Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across the African region, a four-country mixed methods study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Liberia was selected for an in-depth case study due to its success in reducing under-five mortality by 73% and thus successfully meeting MDG 4. Liberia's success was particularly notable given the civil war that ended in 2003. We examined some factors contributing to their reductions in under-five mortality.

DESIGN

A case study mixed methods approach drawing on data from quantitative indicators, national documents and qualitative interviews was used to describe factors that enabled Liberia to rebuild their maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) programmes and reduce under-five mortality following the country's civil war.

SETTING

The interviews were conducted in Monrovia (Montserrado County) and the areas in and around Gbarnga, Liberia (Bong County, North Central region).

PARTICIPANTS

Key informant interviews were conducted with Ministry of Health officials, donor organisations, community-based organisations involved in MNCH and healthcare workers. Focus group discussions were conducted with women who have experience accessing MNCH services.

RESULTS

Three prominent factors contributed to the reduction in under-five mortality: national prioritisation of MNCH after the civil war; implementation of integrated packages of services that expanded access to key interventions and promoted intersectoral collaborations; and use of outreach campaigns, community health workers and trained traditional midwives to expand access to care and improve referrals.

CONCLUSIONS

Although Liberia experiences continued challenges related to limited resources, Liberia's effective strategies and rapid progress may provide insights for reducing under-five mortality in other post-conflict settings.

Improving access to child health services at the community level in Zambia: a country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013

Reductions in under-five mortality in Africa have not been sufficient to meet the Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Nevertheless, 12 African countries have met MDG#4. We undertook a four country study to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015, seeking to better understand variability in success across countries. The current analysis presents indicator, national document, and qualitative data from key informants and community women describing the factors that have enabled Zambia to successfully reduce under-five mortality over the last 15 years and achieve MDG#4. Results identified a Zambian national commitment to ongoing reform of national health strategic plans and efforts to ensure universal access to effective maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) interventions, creating an environment that has promoted child health. Zambia has also focused on bringing health services as close to the family as possible through specific community health strategies. This includes actively involving community health workers to provide health education, basic MNCH services, and linking women to health facilities, while supplementing community and health facility work with twice-yearly Child Health Weeks. External partners have contributed greatly to Zambia’s MNCH services, and their relationships with the government are generally positive. As government funding increases to sustain MNCH services, national health strategies/plans are being used to specify how partners can fill gaps in resources. Zambia’s continuing MNCH challenges include basic transportation, access-to-care, workforce shortages, and financing limitations. We highlight policies, programs, and implementation that facilitated reductions in under-five mortality in Zambia. These findings may inform how other countries in the African Region can increase progress in child survival in the post-MDG period.

The introduction of new policies and strategies to reduce inequities and improve child health in Kenya: A country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013

As of 2015, only 12 countries in the World Health Organization’s AFRO region had met Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across the African region, a four-country study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Kenya was one of the countries selected for an in-depth case study due to its insufficient progress in reducing under-five mortality, with only a 28% reduction between 1990 and 2013. This paper presents indicators, national documents, and qualitative data describing the factors that have both facilitated and hindered Kenya’s efforts in reducing child mortality. Key barriers identified in the data were widespread socioeconomic and geographic inequities in access and utilization of maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) care. To reduce these inequities, Kenya implemented three major policies/strategies during the study period: removal of user fees, the Kenya Essential Package for Health, and the Community Health Strategy. This paper uses qualitative data and a policy review to explore the early impacts of these efforts. The removal of user fees has been unevenly implemented as patients still face hidden expenses. The Kenya Essential Package for Health has enabled construction and/or expansion of healthcare facilities in many areas, but facilities struggle to provide Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC), neonatal care, and many essential medicines and commodities. The Community Health Strategy appears to have had the most impact, improving referrals from the community and provision of immunizations, malaria prevention, and Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV. However, the Community Health Strategy is limited by resources and thus also unevenly implemented in many areas. Although insufficient progress was made pre-2015, with additional resources and further scale-up of new policies and strategies Kenya can make further progress in child survival.

Impact of a critical health workforce shortage on child health in Zimbabwe: a country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013

Despite notable progress reducing global under-five mortality rates, insufficient progress in most sub-Saharan African nations has prevented the achievement of Millennium Development Goal four (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Country-level assessments of factors underlying why some African countries have not been able to achieve MDG#4 have not been published. Zimbabwe was included in a four-country study examining barriers and facilitators of under-five survival between 2000 and 2013 due to its comparatively slow progress towards MDG#4. A review of national health policy and strategy documents and analysis of qualitative data identified Zimbabwe's critical shortage of health workers and diminished opportunities for professional training and education as an overarching challenge. Moreover, this insufficient health workforce severely limited the availability, quality, and utilization of life-saving health services for pregnant women and children during the study period. The impact of these challenges was most evident in Zimbabwe's persistently high neonatal mortality rate, and was likely compounded by policy gaps failing to authorize midwives to deliver life-saving interventions and to ensure health staff make home post-natal care visits soon after birth. Similarly, the lack of a national policy authorizing lower-level cadres of health workers to provide community-based treatment of pneumonia contributed to low coverage of this effective intervention and high child mortality. Zimbabwe has recently begun to address these challenges through comprehensive policies and strategies targeting improved recruitment and retention of experienced senior providers and by shifting responsibility of basic maternal, neonatal and child health services to lower-level cadres and community health workers that require less training, are geographically broadly distributed, and are more cost-effective, however the impact of these interventions could not be assessed within the scope and timeframe of the current study.

The global burden of child burn injuries in light of country level economic development and income inequality

Child burn mortality differs widely between regions and is closely related to material deprivation, but reports on their global distribution are few. Investigating their country level distribution in light of economic level and income inequality will help assess the potential for macro-level improvements. We extracted data for child burn mortality from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013 and combined data into 1–14 years to calculate rates at country, region and income levels. We also compiled potential lives saved. Then we examined the relationship between country level gross domestic product per capita from the World Bank and income inequality (Gini Index) from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database and child burn mortality using Spearman coefficient correlations. Worldwide, the burden of child burn deaths is 2.5 per 100,000 across 103 countries with the largest burden in Sub-Saharan Africa (4.5 per 100,000). Thirty-four thousand lives could be saved yearly if all countries in the world had the same rates as the best performing group of high-income countries; the majority in low-income countries. There was a negative graded association between economic level and child burns for all countries aggregated and at regional level, but no consistent pattern existed for income inequality at regional level. The burden of child burn mortality varies by region and income level with prevention efforts needed most urgently in middle-income countries and Sub-Saharan Africa. Investment in safe living conditions and access to medical care are paramount to achieving further reductions in the global burden of preventable child burn deaths.

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Burden of child burn deaths is 2.5/100,000, largest burden in Sub-Saharan-Africa.

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34,000 lives could be saved yearly from burns if all countries had similar rates.

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Globally child burns decrease as economic wealth increases.

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Prevention efforts needed urgently in middle-income countries, Sub-Saharan-Africa.

Explaining changes in child health inequality in the run up to the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): The case of Zambia

Background

Child health interventions were drastically scaled up in the period leading up to 2015 as countries aimed at meeting the 2015 target of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDGs were defined in terms of achieving improvements in average health. Significant improvements in average child health are documented, but evidence also points to rising inequality. It is important to investigate factors that drive the increasing disparities in order to inform the post-2015 development agenda of reducing inequality, as captured in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We investigated changes in socioeconomic inequality in stunting and fever in Zambia in 2007 and 2014. Unlike the huge literature that seeks to quantify the contribution of different determinants on the observed inequality at any given time, we quantify determinants of changes in inequality.

Methods

Data from the 2007 and 2014 waves of the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) were utilized. Our sample consisted of children aged 0–5 years (n = 5,616 in 2007 and n = 12,714 in 2014). We employed multilevel models to assess the determinants of stunting and fever, which are two important child health indicators. The concentration index (CI) was used to measure the magnitude of inequality. Changes in inequality of stunting and fever were investigated using Oaxaca-type decomposition of the CI. In this approach, the change in the CI for stunting/fever is decomposed into changes in CI for each determinant and changes in the effect—measured as an elasticity—of each determinant on stunting/fever.

Results

While average rates of stunting reduced in 2014 socioeconomic inequality in stunting increased significantly. Inequality in fever incidence also increased significantly, but average rates of fever did not reduce.

The increase in the inequality (CI) of determinants accounted for the largest part (42.5%) of the increase in inequality of stunting, while the increase in the effect of determinants explained 35% of the increase. The determinants with the greatest total contribution (change in CI plus change in effect) to the increase in inequality of stunting were mother’s height and weight, wealth, birth order, facility delivery, duration of breastfeeding, and maternal education.

For fever, almost all (86%) the increase in inequality was accounted for by the increase in the effect of determinants of fever, while the distribution of determinants mattered less. The determinants with the greatest total contribution to the increase in inequality of fever were wealth, maternal education, birth order and breastfeeding duration.

In the multilevel model, we found that the likelihood of a child being stunted or experiencing fever depends on the community in which they live.

Conclusions

To curb the increase in inequality of stunting and fever, policy may focus on improving levels of, and reducing inequality in, access to facility deliveries, maternal nutrition (which may be related to maternal weight and height), complementary feeding (for breastfed children), wealth, maternal education, and child care (related to birth order effects). Improving overall levels of these determinants contribute to the persistence of inequality if these determinants are unequally concentrated on the well off to begin with.

11 years of tracking aid to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health: estimates and analysis for 2003-13 from the Countdown to 2015

BACKGROUND

Tracking aid flows helps to hold donors accountable and to compare the allocation of resources in relation to health need. With the use of data reported by donors in 2015, we provided estimates of official development assistance and grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (collectively termed ODA+) to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health for 2013 and complete trends in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health support for the period 2003-13.

METHODS

We coded and analysed financial disbursements to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health to all recipient countries from all donors reporting to the creditor reporting system database for the year 2013. We also revisited disbursement records for the years 2003-08 and coded disbursements relating to reproductive and sexual health activities resulting in the Countdown dataset for 2003-13. We matched this dataset to the 2015 creditor reporting system dataset and coded any unmatched creditor reporting system records. We analysed trends in ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health for the period 2003-13, trends in donor contributions, disbursements to recipient countries, and targeting to need.

FINDINGS

Total ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health reached nearly US$14 billion in 2013, of which 48% supported child health ($6·8 billion), 34% supported reproductive and sexual health ($4·7 billion), and 18% maternal and newborn health ($2·5 billion). ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health increased by 225% in real terms over the period 2003-13. Child health received the most substantial increase in funding since 2003 (286%), followed by reproductive and sexual health (194%), and maternal and newborn health (164%). In 2013, bilateral donors disbursed 59% of all ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health, followed by global health initiatives (23%), and multilateral agencies (13%). Targeting of ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health to countries with the greatest health need seems to have improved over time.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health funding over the period 2003-13 is encouraging. Further increases in funding will be needed to accelerate maternal mortality reduction while keeping a high level of investment in sexual and reproductive health and in child health.

FUNDING

Subgrant OPP1058954 from the US Fund for UNICEF under their Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival Grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Demographic and mortality analysis of hospitalized children at a referral hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Global childhood mortality rates remain high. Millennium Development Goal 4 focused efforts on reducing rates by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In Ethiopia, child mortality rates dropped 71 % from 1990 to 2015, however it is estimated that 184,000 Ethiopian children die each year. There is limited information about pediatric hospital admissions in Ethiopia. Our aims were to examine the temporal relationship of mortality to admission, describe the demographics, and identify cause mortality of children admitted to the Zewditu Memorial Hospital (ZMH).

METHODS

A four-year retrospective review of pediatric admissions was conducted at the pediatric emergency room and pediatric hospital ward at ZMH in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Admission entries from 2011-2014 of children age 29 days-14 years were reviewed. Age, gender, admission date, disease classification, discharge status and date were obtained. Patient gender was compared using Chi-square analysis. A descriptive analysis was used for age and cause mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 6866 patient entries were reviewed. The proportion of admissions younger than age 5 was 0.747 (95 % CI 0.736-0.757). Overall mortality was 0.042 (95 % CI, 0.037-0.047). The proportion of recorded deaths occurring within 2 days of admission was 0.437 (95 % CI 0.380-0.494). The proportion of male admissions was significantly higher than female admissions in all age groups (male 0.575, p < 0.0001, 95 % CI 0.562-0.586). The main causes of mortality were pneumonia (0.253, 95 % CI, 0.203-0.303), severe acute malnutrition (0.222, 95 % CI 0.174-0.27), HIV/AIDS-related complications (0.056, 95 % CI 0.029-0.083), spina bifida (0.049, 95 % CI 0.024-0.074), and hydrocephalus (0.045, 95 % CI 0.021-0.069).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed a lower mortality rate than previously reported in Ethiopia. Despite this, 44 % of pediatric hospital mortality occurred early during hospitalization, higher than reported at other Ethiopian hospitals. This adds further evidence that systematic efforts should be dedicated to improve pediatric emergency care. Admissions included 58 % male patients, similar to other reports in Ethiopia implying that this may be a nation-wide phenomenon. The observed disparity may be due to societal factors regarding care-seeking behaviors or male predilection for respiratory illness warranting further investigation. Cause mortality patterns were similar to reports in analogous settings.