Assessing potential population impact of statin treatment for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases in the USA: population-based modelling study

A deep learning-based electrocardiogram risk score for long term cardiovascular death and disease

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is the most frequently performed cardiovascular diagnostic test, but it is unclear how much information resting ECGs contain about long term cardiovascular risk. Here we report that a deep convolutional neural network can accurately predict the long-term risk of cardiovascular mortality and disease based on a resting ECG alone. Using a large dataset of resting 12-lead ECGs collected at Stanford University Medical Center, we developed SEER, the Stanford Estimator of Electrocardiogram Risk. SEER predicts 5-year cardiovascular mortality with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 in a held-out test set at Stanford, and with AUCs of 0.78 and 0.83 respectively when independently evaluated at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Columbia University Irving Medical Center. SEER predicts 5-year atherosclerotic disease (ASCVD) with an AUC of 0.67, similar to the Pooled Cohort Equations for ASCVD Risk, while being only modestly correlated. When used in conjunction with the Pooled Cohort Equations, SEER accurately reclassified 16% of patients from low to moderate risk, uncovering a group with an actual average 9.9% 10-year ASCVD risk who would not have otherwise been indicated for statin therapy. SEER can also predict several other cardiovascular conditions such as heart failure and atrial fibrillation. Using only lead I of the ECG it predicts 5-year cardiovascular mortality with an AUC of 0.80. SEER, used alongside the Pooled Cohort Equations and other risk tools, can substantially improve cardiovascular risk stratification and aid in medical decision making.

Statin Use Ameliorates Survival in Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma-Data from a Population-Based Cohort Study Applying Propensity Score Matching

The anti-cancer properties of statins have attracted much attention recently, but little is known about the prognostic role of statins in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). In a retrospective approach, we analyzed a population-based cohort of 602 OSCC patients with primary curative tumor resection to negative margins and concomitant neck dissection between 2005-2017. Long-term medication with statins was correlated with overall survival (OAS) as well as recurrence-free survival (RFS) using uni- and multivariable Cox regression. Additionally, propensity score matching was applied to adjust for confounders. Statin use was present in 96 patients (15.9%) at a median age of 65.7 years. Statin treatment correlated with ameliorated survival in multivariable Cox regression in the complete cohort (OAS: HR 0.664; 95% CI 0.467-0.945, p = 0.023; RFS: HR 0.662; 95% CI 0.476-0.920, p = 0.014) as well as matched-pair cohort of OSCC patients (OAS: HR 0.691; 95% CI 0.479-0.997, p = 0.048; RFS: HR 0.694; 95% CI 0.493-0.976, p = 0.036) when compared to patients not taking statins at time of diagnosis. These findings were even more pronounced by sub-group analysis in the matched-pair cohort (age < 70 years). These data indicate that statin use might ameliorate the oncological outcome in primarily resected OSCC patients, but prospective clinical trials are highly recommended.

Pregnancy-related factors may signal additional protection or risk of future cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) guidelines recommend using the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) to assess 10-year CVD risk based on traditional risk factors. Pregnancy-related factors have been associated with future CVD. We examined the contribution of two pregnancy-related factors, (1) history of a low birthweight (LBW) infant and (2) breastfeeding to CVD risk accounting for traditional risk factors as assessed by the PCE.

METHODS

A nationally representative sample of women, ages 40-79, with a history of pregnancy, but no prior CVD, was identified using NHANES 1999-2006. Outcomes included (1) CVD death and (2) CVD death plus CVD surrogates. We used Cox proportional hazards models to adjust for PCE risk score.

RESULTS

Among 3,758 women, 479 had a LBW infant and 1,926 reported breastfeeding. Mean follow-up time was 12.1 years. Survival models showed a consistent reduction in CVD outcomes among women with a history of breastfeeding. In cause-specific survival models, breastfeeding was associated with a 24% reduction in risk of CVD deaths (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.45─1.27, p = 0.30) and a 33% reduction in risk of CVD deaths + surrogate CVD, though not statistically significant. (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.52─1.14, p = 0.19). Survival models yielded inconclusive results for LBW with wide confidence intervals (CVD death: HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.47─2.05; p = 0.96 and CVD death + surrogate CVD: HR 1.29; 95% CI 0.74─2.25; p = 0.38).

CONCLUSION

Pregnancy-related factors may provide important, relevant information about CVD risk beyond traditional risk factors. While further research with more robust datasets is needed, it may be helpful for clinicians to counsel women about the potential impact of pregnancy-related factors, particularly the positive impact of breastfeeding, on cardiovascular health.

Use of statins after liver transplantation is associated with improved survival: results of a nationwide study

BACKGROUND

There is limited information on the effects of statins on the outcomes of liver transplantation (LT), regarding either their use by LT recipients or donors.

AIM

To analyse the association between statin exposure and recipient and graft survival.

METHODS

We included adult LT recipients with deceased donors in a nationwide prospective database study. Using a multistate modelling approach, we examined the effect of statins on the transition hazard between LT, biliary and vascular complications and death, allowing for recurring events. The observation time was 3 years.

RESULTS

We included 998 (696 male, 70%, mean age 54.46 ± 11.14 years) LT recipients. 14% of donors and 19% of recipients were exposed to statins during the study period. During follow-up, 141 patients died; there were 40 re-LT and 363 complications, with 66 patients having two or more complications. Treatment with statins in the recipient was modelled as a concurrent covariate and associated with lower mortality after LT (HR = 0.35; 95% CI 0.12-0.98; p = 0.047), as well as a significant reduction of re-LT (p = 0.004). However, it was not associated with lower incidence of complications (HR = 1.25; 95% CI = 0.85-1.83; p = 0.266). Moreover, in patients developing complications, statin use was significantly associated with decreased mortality (HR = 0.10; 95% CI = 0.01-0.81; p = 0.030), and reduced recurrence of complications (HR = 0.43; 95% CI = 0.20-0.93; p = 0.032).

CONCLUSIONS

Statin use by LT recipients may confer a survival advantage. Statin administration should be encouraged in LT recipients when clinically indicated.

miR-223 Exerts Translational Control of Proatherogenic Genes in Macrophages

A significant burden of atherosclerotic disease is driven by inflammation. Recently, microRNAs (miRNAs) have emerged as important factors driving and protecting from atherosclerosis. miR-223 regulates cholesterol metabolism and inflammation via targeting both cholesterol biosynthesis pathway and NF_kB signaling pathways; however, its role in atherosclerosis has not been investigated. We hypothesize that miR-223 globally regulates core inflammatory pathways in macrophages in response to inflammatory and atherogenic stimuli thus limiting the progression of atherosclerosis.

Lycopene Reduces Cholesterol Absorption and Prevents Atherosclerosis in ApoE-/- Mice by Downregulating HNF-1α and NPC1L1 Expression

Our previous study showed that lycopene reduced the absorption of cholesterol in Caco-2 cells through inhibiting Niemann-Pick C1-Like 1 (NPC1L1) expression. Herein, we aimed to explore whether lycopene supplementation can decrease cholesterol absorption in the intestine and prevent atherosclerosis progression in high-fat diet (HFD)-fed apolipoprotein E knockout (ApoE^-/-) mice. Male ApoE^-/- mice were fed a high-fat diet with or without lycopene for 19 weeks. Supplementation of lycopene markedly lowered serum total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. Additionally, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels were increased after lycopene administration. Lycopene also downregulated the expression of NPC1L1 and hepatocyte nuclear factor-1α (HNF-1α) in the small intestine. Furthermore, the Oil Red O staining of the aorta and aortic sinus showed that lycopene supplementation remarkably reduced atherosclerotic lesions. These results indicated that lycopene inhibited intestinal cholesterol absorption and protected against HFD-induced atherosclerosis through inhibiting HNF-1α and NPC1L1 expression. Lycopene exhibits a potential antiatherosclerotic effect through suppressing intestinal cholesterol absorption.

Progress and Research Priorities in Imaging Genomics for Heart and Lung Disease: Summary of an NHLBI Workshop

Imaging genomics is a rapidly evolving field that combines state-of-the-art bioimaging with genomic information to resolve phenotypic heterogeneity associated with genomic variation, improve risk prediction, discover prevention approaches, and enable precision diagnosis and treatment. Contemporary bioimaging methods provide exceptional resolution generating discrete and quantitative high-dimensional phenotypes for genomics investigation. Despite substantial progress in combining high-dimensional bioimaging and genomic data, methods for imaging genomics are evolving. Recognizing the potential impact of imaging genomics on the study of heart and lung disease, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened a workshop to review cutting-edge approaches and methodologies in imaging genomics studies, and to establish research priorities for future investigation. This report summarizes the presentations and discussions at the workshop. In particular, we highlight the need for increased availability of imaging genomics data in diverse populations, dedicated focus on less common conditions, and centralization of efforts around specific disease areas.

Integrated Polygenic Tool Substantially Enhances Coronary Artery Disease Prediction

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background:

There is considerable interest in whether genetic data can be used to improve standard cardiovascular disease risk calculators, as the latter are routinely used in clinical practice to manage preventative treatment.

Methods:

Using the UK Biobank resource, we developed our own polygenic risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD). We used an additional 60 000 UK Biobank individuals to develop an integrated risk tool (IRT) that combined our polygenic risk score with established risk tools (either the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology pooled cohort equations [PCE] or UK QRISK3), and we tested our IRT in an additional, independent set of 186 451 UK Biobank individuals.

Results:

The novel CAD polygenic risk score shows superior predictive power for CAD events, compared with other published polygenic risk scores, and is largely uncorrelated with PCE and QRISK3. When combined with PCE into an IRT, it has superior predictive accuracy. Overall, 10.4% of incident CAD cases were misclassified as low risk by PCE and correctly classified as high risk by the IRT, compared with 4.4% misclassified by the IRT and correctly classified by PCE. The overall net reclassification improvement for the IRT was 5.9% (95% CI, 4.7–7.0). When individuals were stratified into age-by-sex subgroups, the improvement was larger for all subgroups (range, 8.3%–15.4%), with the best performance in 40- to 54-year-old men (15.4% [95% CI, 11.6–19.3]). Comparable results were found using a different risk tool (QRISK3) and also a broader definition of cardiovascular disease. Use of the IRT is estimated to avoid up to 12 000 deaths in the United States over a 5-year period.

Conclusions:

An IRT that includes polygenic risk outperforms current risk stratification tools and offers greater opportunity for early interventions. Given the plummeting costs of genetic tests, future iterations of CAD risk tools would be enhanced with the addition of a person’s polygenic risk.

Statin eligibility based on the ACC/AHA guidelines among Middle Eastern patients with diabetes mellitus presenting with acute myocardial infarction

Background

Statin eligibility based on the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines among patients with diabetes admitted with first time acute myocardial infarction has not been evaluated in the Middle East.

Purpose

To assess statin eligibility for diabetic patients admitted with first time myocardial infarction in Jordan according to ACC/AHA guidelines.

Methods

Consecutive patients admitted with a first acute myocardial infarction who were not taking statins, and had their serum lipoproteins measured upon hospital admission were enrolled in the study. Statin eligibility among patients with diabetes admitted with first time myocardial infarction was determined based on the ACC/AHA guidelines.

Results

Of 774 patients enrolled, 292 (37.30%) had diabetes. Compared with non-diabetic patients, those with diabetes were females, older, more hypertension, more hypercholesterolemia, more triglycerides, more diastolic blood pressure, less smokers and less low density lipoprotein. Among patients with diabetes, 242 diabetic patients (82.9%) were statin eligible, including 20 (6.90%) for having high serum levels of low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) >190 mg/dL, and 222 (76%) for being aged 40–75 years with LDL-C 70–189 mg/dL. No patient had a calculated atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk score ≥7.5%. On the other hand, 393 non-diabetic patients (81.3%) were statin eligible, including 41 (8.50%) for having high serum levels of low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) >190 mg/dL, and 351 (72.80%) for being aged 40–75 years with LDL-C 70–189 mg/dL.

Conclusions

Based on the ACC/AHA guidelines, the majority of patients with diabetes admitted with first acute myocardial infarction would have been eligible for statin treatment if they have LDL-c >190 mg/dl or aged 40–75 years old and they have their LDL 70–189 mg/gl. More efforts should be taken for patients who are female, older than 50 years, hypertensive, elevated diastolic blood pressure have hypercholesterolemia, and elevated triglycerides because of their significant association with diabetes.

•

83% of patients with diabetes mellitus presenting with MI, were statin eligible.

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393 non-diabetic patients (81.3%) were statin eligible in the current sample.

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No diabetic or non-diabetic patients has a 10 year ASCVR score between 5 and 7.4

•

Statin was eligible in the same proportion among diabetic and diabetic patients.

Strategies for enhancing the initiation of cholesterol lowering medication among patients at high cardiovascular disease risk: a qualitative descriptive exploration of patient and general practitioners' perspectives on a facilitated relay intervention in Alberta, Canada

OBJECTIVE

The objective of our study was to explore the perspectives of patients and general practitioners (GPs) regarding interventions to increase initiation of cholesterol lowering medication (or statins), including a proposed laboratory-based facilitated relay intervention.

DESIGN

Qualitative descriptive study using interviews and focus groups for data collection, and thematic analysis for data analysis.

SETTING

Primary care providers and patients in Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

17 GPs with primarily community-based, non-academic practices with at least 1 year of practice experience participated in semistructured interviews. 14 patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease participated in focus groups.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Exploration of strategies that might be used to enhance the prescription of, and adherence to statin therapy for patients with statin-indicated conditions.

RESULTS

GPs proposed a variety of interventions to improve statin prescription, including electronic record audit solutions, GP directed education, and patient-oriented campaigns. Patients expressed that they may benefit from being provided access to their laboratory test results, as well as targeted education. Both parties provided positive feedback on the proposed laboratory-based facilitated relay intervention, while pointing out areas for improvement. Notably, GPs were concerned that the patient-directed component of the intervention might jeopardise therapeutic relationships, and patients were concerned about accidental disclosure of personal health information. Important considerations for the design of facilitated relay messaging should include brevity, simplicity and the provision of contact information for inquiries.

CONCLUSIONS

GPs and patients described several suggestions for increasing statin initiation and welcomed the proposal of a laboratory-based facilitated relay strategy. These findings support further testing of this intervention which may enhance GPs' ability to successfully engage patients in cardiovascular risk reduction through statin therapy.

Dipeptide Frequency of Word Frequency and Graph Convolutional Networks for DTA Prediction

Deep learning is an effective method to capture drug-target binding affinity, but low accuracy is still an obstacle to be overcome. Thus, we propose a novel predictor for drug-target binding affinity based on dipeptide frequency of word frequency encoding and a hybrid graph convolutional network. Word frequency characteristics of natural language are used to improve the frequency characteristics of peptides to express target proteins. For each drug molecules, the five different features of drug atoms and the atomic bond relationships are expressed as graphs. The obtained protein features and graph structure are used as the input of convolution neural network and the input of graph convolution neural network, respectively. A prediction model is established to predict the drug affinity by calculating the hidden relationship. In the KIBA data set test experiment, the consistency coefficient of the model is 0.901, which is 0.01 higher than the existing model, and the MSE (mean square error) of the model is 0.126, which is 5% lower than the existing model. In Davis data set test experiment, the consistency coefficient of the model is 0.895, which is 0.006 higher than the existing model, and the MSE of the model is 0.220, which is 4% lower than the existing model. These results show that our proposed method can not only predict the affinity better than those existing models, but also outperform unitary deep learning approaches.

Trends in low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol blood values between 2012 and 2017 suggest sluggish adoption of the recent 2013 treatment guidelines

BACKGROUND

Over a 14-year period, age-adjusted high total cholesterol (≥240 mg/dL) in the United States declined from 18.3% in 1999 to 2000 to 11.0% in 2013 to 2014, coinciding with the 2001 National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel (ATP)-III guidelines that endorsed low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol blood value goals. Statin treatment recommendations were revised by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) in November 2013 to a "risk-based prescription" approach that did not utilize blood cholesterol values. This increased dosage and expanded the statin-eligible population by an estimated 12.8 million US adults. These changes should further lower total and LDL cholesterol concentrations nationally.

METHODS

We examined data from 507 752 patients nationally aged ≥16 years whose fasting bloods were sent to Boston Heart Diagnostics for direct LDL-cholesterol measurements. Between 2012 and 2017, age-adjusted concentrations were examined by analysis of covariance and LDL-cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Contrary to expectations, age-adjusted mean LDL-cholesterol concentrations (±SE, mg/dL) increased significantly (P < 10^-16 ) in men (2012:113.8 ± 0.3; 2013:115.3 ± 0.2; 2014:114.7 ± 0.2; 2015:116.0 ± 0.2; 2016:117.6 ± 0.2; and 2017:117.1 ± 0.2 mg/dL) and women (2012:119.5 ± 0.3; 2013:120.7 ± 0.2; 2014:119.8 ± 0.02; 2015:120.8 ± 0.2; 2016:122.7 ± 0.1; and 2017:123.8 ± 0.2 mg/dL). The percentage with LDL-cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL also increased significantly (P < 10^-9 ) in men and women. Similar results were obtained for ages 40 to 75 years olds (corresponding to ACC/AHA guidelines).

CONCLUSION

These results provide additional evidence that declining blood LDL-cholesterol levels observed following the ATP-III recommendations, did not further decline (actually increased) following the 2013 ACC/AHA recommendations.

Supplementation with curcumin inhibits intestinal cholesterol absorption and prevents atherosclerosis in high-fat diet-fed apolipoprotein E knockout mice

Atherosclerosis is a major cause of cardiovascular disease caused by high cholesterol. Reduced intestinal cholesterol absorption has been shown to exert strong cholesterol-lowering and antiatherogenic effects. Previously, we reported that curcumin reduced cholesterol absorption in high-fat diet-fed hamster by downregulating the intestinal expression of Niemann-Pick C1-like 1. Here, we tested the hypothesis that supplementation with curcumin can also reduce intestinal cholesterol absorption in high-fat diet-fed apolipoprotein E knockout (ApoE^-/-) mice and prevent atherosclerosis development. ApoE^-/- mice were fed a high-fat diet supplemented with or without curcumin (0.1% w/w) for 16 weeks. Aortic sinus sections revealed that curcumin supplementation reduced the extent of atherosclerotic lesions by 45%. Curcumin treatment also reduced cholesterol accumulation in the aortas by 56% and lowered plasma total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Moreover, the antiatherogenic and cholesterol-lowering effects of curcumin coincided with a significant decrease in intestinal cholesterol absorption. It was reduced by nearly 51%, and the decreased cholesterol absorption was modulated by inhibiting the intestinal expression of Niemann-Pick C1-like 1, predominantly in the duodenal and jejunal segments of the small intestine. These findings support the hypothesis that curcumin supplementation reduces intestinal cholesterol absorption and prevents atherosclerosis in high-fat diet-fed ApoE^-/- mice. Curcumin affords a potent antiatherogenic action by inhibiting intestinal cholesterol absorption in the mouse.

Development of heart failure in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: A Danish population-based study

BACKGROUND

To investigate the incidence of heart failure (HF) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in different time spans following incident rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and, furthermore, to investigate the impact of IHD on the development of HF and the impact of different treatment era of RA.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This matched cohort study used nationwide, prospectively collected data. From the total Danish population of approximately 5.7 million inhabitants, we identified 51 859 patients (between 1995 and July 2016) with incident RA and a sex- and age-matched cohort from the general population (256 653 persons).

RESULTS

The hazard ratio (HR) for HF among RA patients compared with persons from comparison cohort was 2.28 within the first year of index date, 1.39 within the 1-5 years of index date and 1.38 within the 5-10 years of index date. No difference was identified regarding different treatment era of RA. For IHD, the subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) was 1.93 within the first year of index date, 1.26 within the 1-5 years of index date and 1.31 within the 5-10 years of index date. Coronary revascularization was also more common within the first year after diagnosis of RA. An increased risk of percutaneous coronary intervention and coronary artery bypass grafting within 10 years following the RA diagnosis was observed. HR for new onset of HF in RA without IHD was 1.23, while the HR for new onset of HF in patients with RA and IHD was 2.06.

CONCLUSIONS

Rheumatoid arthritis patients had higher rates of HF and IHD throughout the entire observation period compared to the comparison cohort. RA was associated with a larger risk of developing HF.

Using big data to improve cardiovascular care and outcomes in China: a protocol for the CHinese Electronic health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) Study

INTRODUCTION

Data based on electronic health records (EHRs) are rich with individual-level longitudinal measurement information and are becoming an increasingly common data source for clinical risk prediction worldwide. However, few EHR-based cohort studies are available in China. Harnessing EHRs for research requires a full understanding of data linkages, management, and data quality in large data sets, which presents unique analytical opportunities and challenges. The purpose of this study is to provide a framework to establish a uniquely integrated EHR database in China for scientific research.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The CHinese Electronic health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) Study will extract individual participant data within the regional health information system of an eastern coastal area of China to establish a longitudinal population-based ambispective cohort study for cardiovascular care and outcomes research. A total of 1 053 565 Chinese adults aged over 18 years were registered in the health information system in 2009, and there were 23 394 deaths from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2015. The study will include information from multiple epidemiological surveys; EHRs for chronic disease management; and health administrative, clinical, laboratory, drug and electronic medical record (EMR) databases. Follow-up of fatal and non-fatal clinical events is achieved through records linkage to the regional system of disease surveillance, chronic disease management and EMRs (based on diagnostic codes from the International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision). The CHERRY Study will provide a unique platform and serve as a valuable big data resource for cardiovascular risk prediction and population management, for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular events in China.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The CHERRY Study was approved by the Peking University Institutional Review Board (IRB00001052-16011) in April 2016. Results of the study will be disseminated through published journal articles, conferences and seminar presentations, and on the study website (http://www.cherry-study.org).