Multimorbidity in Latin America and the Caribbean: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Mind shift I: Fructus Aurantii - Rhizoma Chuanxiong synergistically anchors stress-induced depression-like behaviours and gastrointestinal dysmotility cluster by regulating psycho-immune-neuroendocrine network

BACKGROUND

Researchers have not studied the integrity, orderly correlation, and dynamic openness of complex organisms and explored the laws of systems from a global perspective. In the context of reductionism, antidepressant development formerly focused on advanced technology and molecular details, clear targets and mechanisms, but the clinical results were often unsatisfactory.

PURPOSE

MDD represents an aggregate of different and highly diverse disease subtypes. The co-occurrence of stress-induced nonrandom multimorbidity is widespread, whereas only a fraction of the potential clusters are well known, such as the MDD-FGID cluster. Mapping these clusters, and determining which are nonrandom, is vital for discovering new mechanisms, developing treatments, and reconfiguring services to better meet patient needs.

STUDY DESIGN

Acute stress 15-minute forced swimming (AFS) or CUMS protocols can induce the nonrandom MDD-FGID cluster. Multiple biological processes of rats with depression-like behaviours and gastrointestinal dysmobility will be captured under conditions of stress, and the Fructus Aurantii-Rhizoma Chuanxiong (ZQCX) decoction will be utilized to dock the MDD-FGID cluster.

METHODS/RESULTS

Here, Rhizoma Chuanxiong, one of the seven components of Chaihu-shugan-San, elicited the best antidepressant effect on CUMS rats, followed by Fructus Aurantii. ZQCX reversed AFS-induced depression-like behaviours and gastrointestinal dysmobility by regulating the glutamatergic system, AMPAR/BDNF/mTOR/synapsin I pathway, ghrelin signalling and gastrointestinal nitric oxide synthase. Based on the bioethnopharmacological analysis strategy, the determined meranzin hydrate (MH) and senkyunolide I (SI) by UPLC-PDA, simultaneously absorbed by the jejunum and hippocampus of rats, have been considered major absorbed bioactive compounds acting on behalf of ZQCX. Cotreatment with MH and SI at an equivalent dose in ZQCX synergistically replicated over 50.33 % efficacy of the parent formula in terms of antidepressant and prokinetic actions by modulating neuroinflammation and ghrelin signalling.

CONCLUSION

Brain-centric mind shifts require the integration of multiple central and peripheral systems and the elucidation of the underlying neurobiological mechanisms that ultimately contribute to novel therapeutic options. Ghrelin signalling and the immune system may partially underlie multimorbidity vulnerability, and ZQCX anchors stress-induced MDD-FGID clusters by docking them. Combining the results of micro details with the laws of the macro world may be more effective in finding treatments for MDD.

Influence of comorbidity of chronic diseases on basic activities of daily living among older adults in China: a propensity score-matched study

Rationale

With the accelerating process of population aging, the comorbidity of chronic disease (CCD) has become a major public health problem that threatens the health of older adults.

Objective

This study aimed to assess whether CCD is associated with basic activities of daily living (BADL) and explore the factors influencing BADL in older adults.

Method

A cross-sectional community health survey with stratified random sampling among older residents (≥60 years old) was conducted in 2022. A questionnaire was used to collect information on BADL, chronic diseases, and other relevant aspects. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to match the older adults with and without CCD. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to explore the factors influencing BADL. PSM was used to match participants with single-chronic disease (SCD) and CCD.

Results

Among the 47,720 participants, those with CCD showed a higher prevalence of BADL disability (13.07%) than those with no CCD (6.33%) and SCD (7.39%). After adjusting for potential confounders with PSM, 6,513 pairs of cases with and without CCD were matched. The univariate analysis found that the older adults with CCD had a significantly higher prevalence of BADL disability (13.07%, 851 of 6,513) than those without CCD (9.83%, 640 of 6,513, P < 0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that CCD was a risk factor for BADL in older adults [OR = 1.496, 95% CI: 1.393-1.750, P < 0.001]. In addition, age, educational level, alcohol intake, social interaction, annual physical examination, retirement benefits, depression, weekly amount of exercise, and years of exercise were related to BADL disability (P < 0.05). PSM matching was performed on participants with CCD and SCD and showed that the older adults with CCD had a significantly higher prevalence of BADL disability (13.07%, 851 of 6,513) than those with SCD (11.39%, 742 of 6,513, P < 0.05).

Conclusion

The older adults with CCD are at a higher risk of BADL disability than their counterparts with no CCD or SCD. Therefore, we advocate paying attention to and taking measures to improve the health and quality of life of these individuals.

Risk factors of multimorbidity among older adults in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Multimorbidity among older adults is a growing concern in India. Multimorbidity is defined as the coexistence of two or more chronic health conditions in an individual. Primary studies have been conducted on risk factors of multimorbidity in India, but no systematic review has been conducted on this topic. This systematic review aimed to synthesize the existing evidence on risk factors of multimorbidity among older adults in India.

Methods

The JBI and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines were followed. Several databases were searched for published and unpublished studies until August 03, 2022. The screening of titles and abstracts and full texts, data extraction, and quality assessment were conducted by two independent reviewers. Any disagreements were resolved through discussion or by involving a third reviewer. Data synthesis was conducted using narrative synthesis and random effects meta-analysis, where appropriate.

Results

Out of 8781 records identified from the literature search, 16 and 15 studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis, respectively. All included studies were cross-sectional, and 10 met a critical appraisal score of more than 70%. Broadly, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health conditions-related factors were explored in these studies. The pooled odds of multimorbidity were higher in people aged ≥70 years compared to 60-69 years (odds ratio (OR) 1.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-1.91), females compared to males (1.38; 1.09-1.75), single, divorced, separated, and widowed compared to married (1.29; 1.11-1.49), economically dependent compared to economically independent (1.54; 1.21-1.97), and smokers compared to non-smokers (1.33; 1.16-1.52) and were lower in working compared to not working (0.51; 0.36-0.72).

Conclusion

This systematic review and meta-analysis provided a comprehensive picture of the problem by synthesizing the existing evidence on risk factors of multimorbidity among older adults in India. These synthesized sociodemographic and lifestyle factors should be taken into consideration when developing health interventions for addressing multimorbidity among older adults in India.

Environmental inequalities and multimorbidity: Insights from the Southwest China Multi-Ethnic Cohort Study

Multimorbidity is an increasingly significant public health challenge worldwide. Although the association between environmental factors and the morbidity and mortality of individual chronic diseases is well-established, the relationship between environmental inequalities and multimorbidity, as well as the patterns of multimorbidity across different areas and ethnic groups, remains unclear. We first focus on analyzing the differences in environmental exposures and patterns of multimorbidity across diverse areas and ethnic groups. The results show that individuals of Han ethnicity residing in Chongqing and Sichuan are exposure to higher levels of air pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, and NO2. Conversely, Tibetans in Tibet and Yi people in Yunnan face elevated concentrations of O3. Furthermore, the Dong, Miao, Buyi ethnicities in Guizhou and Bai in Yunnan have greater access to green spaces. The key multimorbidity patterns observed in Southwest China are related to metabolic abnormalities combined with digestive system diseases. However, significant differences in multimorbidity patterns exist among different regions and ethnic groups. Further utilizing the logistic regression model, the analysis demonstrates that increased exposure to environmental pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, O3) is significantly associated with higher odds ratios of multimorbidity. Conversely, a greater presence of green spaces (NDVI 250, NDVI 500, NDVI 1000) significantly reduces the risk of multimorbidity. This large-scale epidemiological study provides some evidence of a significant association between environmental inequalities and multimorbidity. By addressing these environmental inequalities and promoting healthy environments for all, we can work towards reducing the prevalence of multimorbidity and improving overall population health.

Epidemiology and impact of chronic disease multimorbidity in India: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives

This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of multimorbidity, its risk factors including socioeconomic factors, and the consequences of multimorbidity on health systems and broader society in India.

Methods

A systematic review of both published and grey literature from five databases (Medline, Embase, EBSCO, Scopus, and ProQuest) was conducted including original studies documenting prevalence or patient outcomes associated with multimorbidity among adults in India. We excluded studies that did not explicitly mention multimorbidity. Three independent reviewers did primary screening based on titles and abstracts followed by full-text review for potential eligibility. The risk of bias was independently assessed by two reviewers following the Appraisal Tool for Cross-Sectional Studies. We presented both qualitative and quantitative (through meta-analysis) summaries of the evidence. The protocol for this study was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021257281).

Results

The review identified 5442 articles out of which 35 articles were finally included in this study. Twenty-three studies were based on the primary data while 12 used secondary data. Eleven studies were conducted in hospital/primary care setting while 24 were community-based. The pooled prevalence of multimorbidity based on (n=19) studies included for meta-analysis was 20% (95% CI: 19% to 20%). The most frequent outcomes were increased healthcare utilization, reduced health-related quality of life, physical and mental functioning.

Conclusion

We identified a wide variance in the magnitude of multimorbidity across age groups and regions with most of the studies from eastern India. Nation-wide studies, studies on vulnerable populations and interventions are warranted.

Economic evaluation of a multimorbidity patient centered care model implemented in the Chilean public health system

Multimorbidity and patient-centered care approaches are growing challenges for health systems and patients. The cost of multimorbidity patients and the transition to a new care strategy is still sightly explored. In Chile, more than 70% of the adult population suffer from multimorbidity, opening an opportunity to implement a Multimorbidity patient-centered care model. The objective of this study was to perform an economic evaluation of the model from the public health system perspective.The methodology used a cost-consequence evaluation comparing seven exposed with seven unexposed primary care centers, and their reference hospitals. It followed three steps. First, we performed a Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing with routinely collected data routinely collected. Second, we run a comparative analysis through a propensity score matching and an estimation of the attributable costs to health services utilization at primary, secondary and tertiary care and health outcomes. Third, we estimated implementation and transaction costs.Results showed savings in aggregate costs of the total population (-0.12 (0.03) p < 0.01) during the period under evaluation. Costs in primary care showed a significant increase, whereas tertiary care showed significant savings. Health outcomes were associated with higher survival in patients under the new care model (HR 0.70 (0.05) p < 0.01). Implementation and transaction costs increased as the number of pilot intervention centers increased, and they represented 0,07% of the total annual budget of the Servicio de Salud Metropolitano Sur Oriente. After three years of piloting, the implementation and transaction cost for the total period was USD 1,838,767 and 393,775, respectively.The study's findings confirm the purpose of the new model to place primary health care at the center of care for people with non-communicable chronic diseases. Thus, it is necessary to consider implementation and transaction costs to introduce a broad health system multimorbidity approach. The health system should assume some of them permanently to guarantee sustainability and facilitate scale-up.

Prevalence and factors associated with multimorbidity in adults in Brazil, according to sex: a population-based cross-sectional survey

Introduction

Multimorbidity, defined as the coexistence of two or more chronic diseases in the same individual, represents a significant health challenge. However, there is limited evidence on its prevalence and associated factors in developing countries, such as Brazil, especially stratified by sex. Thus, this study aims to estimate the prevalence and analyze the factors associated with multimorbidity in Brazilian adults according to sex.

Methods

Cross-sectional population-based household survey carried out with Brazilian adults aged 18 years or older. The sampling strategy consisted of a three-stage conglomerate plan. The three stages were performed through simple random sampling. Data were collected through individual interviews. Multimorbidity was classified based on a list of 14 self-reported chronic diseases/conditions. Poisson regression analysis was performed to estimate the magnitude of the association between sociodemographic and lifestyle factors with the prevalence of multimorbidity stratified by sex.

Results

A total of 88,531 individuals were included. In absolute terms, the prevalence of multimorbidity was 29.4%. The frequency in men and women was 22.7 and 35.4%, respectively. Overall, multimorbidity was more prevalent among women, the older people, residents of the South and Southeast regions, urban area residents, former smokers, current smokers, physically inactive, overweight, and obese adults. Individuals with complete high school/incomplete higher education had a lower prevalence of multimorbidity than those with higher educational level. The associations between education and multimorbidity differed between sexes. In men, multimorbidity was inversely associated with the strata of complete middle school/incomplete high school and complete high school/incomplete higher education, while in women, the association between these variables was not observed. Physical inactivity was positively associated with a higher prevalence of multimorbidity only in men. An inverse association was verified between the recommended fruit and vegetable consumption and multimorbidity for the total sample and both sexes.

Conclusion

One in four adults had multimorbidity. Prevalence increased with increasing age, among women, and was associated with some lifestyles. Multimorbidity was significantly associated with educational level and physical inactivity only in men. The results suggest the need to adopt integrated strategies to reduce the magnitude of multimorbidity, specific by gender, including actions for health promotion, disease prevention, health surveillance and comprehensive health care in Brazil.

Multimorbidity and adverse longitudinal outcomes among patients attending chronic outpatient medical care in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Multimorbidity is becoming more prevalent in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the evidence base on the burden and its longitudinal outcomes are limited. This study aimed to determine the longitudinal outcomes of patients with multimorbidity among a sample of individuals attending chronic outpatient non communicable diseases (NCDs) care in Bahir Dar, northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A facility-based longitudinal study was conducted among 1,123 participants aged 40+ attending care for single NCD (n = 491) or multimorbidity (n = 633). Data were collected both at baseline and after 1 year through standardized interviews and record reviews. Data were analyzed using Stata V.16. Descriptive statistics and longitudinal panel data analyzes were run to describe independent variables and identify factors predicting outcomes. Statistical significance was considered at p-value <0.05.

Results

The magnitude of multimorbidity has increased from 54.8% at baseline to 56.8% at 1 year. Four percent (n = 44) of patients were diagnosed with one or more NCDs and those having multimorbidity at baseline were more likely than those without multimorbidity to develop new NCDs. In addition, 106 (9.4%) and 22 (2%) individuals, respectively were hospitalized and died during the follow up period. In this study, about one-third of the participants had higher quality of life (QoL), and those having higher high activation status were more likely to be in the higher versus the combined moderate and lower QoL [AOR1 = 2.35, 95%CI: (1.93, 2.87)] and in the combined higher and moderate versus lower level of QoL [AOR2 = 1.53, 95%CI: (1.25, 1.88)].

Conclusion

Developing new NCDs is a frequent occurrence and the prevalence of multimorbidity is high. Living with multimorbidity was associated with poor progress, hospitalization and mortality. Patients having a higher activation level were more likely than those with low activation to have better QoL. If health systems are to meet the needs of the people with chronic conditions and multimorbidity, it is essential to understand diseases trajectories and of impact of multimorbidity on QoL, and determinants and individual capacities, and to increase their activation levels for better health improve outcomes through education and activation.

Development of a Predictive Model of Cardiovascular Risk in a Male Population from the Peruvian Amazon

BACKGROUND

The coexistence of malnutrition due to over- and under-nutrition in the Peruvian Amazon increases chronic diseases and cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of a male population where anthropometric, clinical, and demographic variables were obtained to create a binary logistic regression predictive model of cardiovascular risk.

RESULTS

We compared two methods with good predictive results, finally choosing Model 4 (r² = 0.57, sensitivity 73.68%, specificity 95.35%, Youden index 0.69, and validity index 94.21), with non-invasive variables such as blood pressure (p < 0.001), hip circumference (p < 0.001), and FINDRISC test result (p < 0.05); Conclusions: We developed a cheap, fast, and non-invasive tool to determine cardiovascular risk in the population of this endemic area.

Experience of living with multimorbidity and health workers perspectives on the organization of health services for people living with multiple chronic conditions in Bahir Dar, northwest Ethiopia: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity-the simultaneous occurrence of two or more chronic Non-Communicable Diseases) in an individual is increasing globally and challenging health systems. Although individuals living with multimorbidity face a range of adverse consequences and difficulty in getting optimal health care, the evidence base in understanding the burden and capacity of the health system in managing multimorbidity is sparse in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aimed at understanding the lived experiences of patients with multimorbidity and perspective of service providers on multimorbidity and its care provision, and perceived capacity of the health system for managing multimorbidity in Bahir Dar City, northwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A facility-based phenomenological study design was conducted in three public and three private health facilities rendering chronic outpatient Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) care in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia. Nineteen patient participants with two or more chronic NCDs and nine health care providers (six medical doctors and three nurses) were purposively selected and interviewed using semi-structured in-depth interview guides. Data were collected by trained researchers. Interviews were audio-recorded using digital recorders, stored and transferred to computers, transcribed verbatim by the data collectors, translated into English and then imported into NVivo V.12 software for data analysis. We employed a six-step inductive thematic framework analysis approach to construct meaning and interpret experiences and perceptions of individual patients and service providers. Codes were identified and categorized into sub-themes, organizing themes and main themes iteratively to identify similarities and differences across themes, and to interpret them accordingly.

RESULTS

A total of 19 patient participants (5 Females) and nine health workers (2 females) responded to the interviews. Participants' age ranged from 39 to 79 years for patients and 30 to 50 years for health professionals. About half (n = 9) of the participants had three or more chronic conditions. The key themes produced were feeling dependency, social rejection, psychological distress, poor medication adherence and poor quality of care. Living with multimorbidity poses a huge burden on the physical, psychological, social and sexual health of patients. In addition, patients with multimorbidity are facing financial hardship to access optimal multimorbidity care. On the other hand, the health system is not appropriately prepared to provide integrated, person-centered and coordinated care for people living with multiple chronic conditions.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Living with multimorbidity poses huge impact on physical, psychological, social and sexual health of patients. Patients seeking multimorbidity care are facing challenges to access care attributable to either financial constraints or the lack of integrated, respectful and compassionate health care. It is recommended that the health system must understand and respond to the complex care needs of the patients with multimorbidity.

Global and regional prevalence of multimorbidity in the adult population in community settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Knowing the prevalence of multimorbidity among adults across continents is a crucial piece of information for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, which calls for reducing premature death due to non-communicable diseases. A high prevalence of multimorbidity indicates high mortality and increased healthcare utilization. We aimed to understand the prevalence of multimorbidity across WHO geographic regions among adults.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of surveys designed to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity among adults in community settings. We searched PubMed, ScienceDirect, Embase and Google Scholar databases for studies published between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2021. The random-effects model estimated the pooled proportion of multimorbidity in adults. Heterogeneity was quantified using I² statistics. We performed subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses based on continents, age, gender, multimorbidity definition, study periods and sample size. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020150945).

FINDINGS

We analyzed data from 126 peer-reviewed studies that included nearly 15.4 million people (32.1% were male) with a weighted mean age of 56.94 years (standard deviation of 10.84 years) from 54 countries around the world. The overall global prevalence of multimorbidity was 37.2% (95% CI = 34.9-39.4%). South America (45.7%, 95% CI = 39.0-52.5) had the highest prevalence of multimorbidity, followed by North America (43.1%, 95% CI = 32.3-53.8%), Europe (39.2%, 95% CI = 33.2-45.2%), and Asia (35%, 95% CI = 31.4-38.5%). The subgroup study highlights that multimorbidity is more prevalent in females (39.4%, 95% CI = 36.4-42.4%) than males (32.8%, 95% CI = 30.0-35.6%). More than half of the adult population worldwide above 60 years of age had multimorbid conditions (51.0%, 95% CI = 44.1-58.0%). Multimorbidity has become increasingly prevalent in the last two decades, while the prevalence appears to have stayed stable in the recent decade among adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

The multimorbidity patterns by geographic regions, time, age, and gender suggest noticeable demographic and regional differences in the burden of multimorbidity. According to insights about prevalence among adults, priority is required for effective and integrative interventions for older adults from South America, Europe, and North America. A high prevalence of multimorbidity among adults from South America suggests immediate interventions are needed to reduce the burden of morbidity. Furthermore, the high prevalence trend in the last two decades indicates that the global burden of multimorbidity continues at the same pace. The low prevalence in Africa suggests that there may be many undiagnosed chronic illness patients in Africa.

FUNDING

None.

Multimorbidity and Sleep Patterns among Adults in a Peruvian Semi-Urban Area

Objective  To assess if the duration and quality of sleep vary due to the presence of multimorbidity. Materials and Methods  We performed a secondary analysis using data from a population-based study involving adult subjects aged between 30 and 69 years residing in a semi-urban area of Tumbes, Peru. The duration (normal, short or prolonged) and quality (good or poor) of sleep were our outcome variables, whereas the exposure was multimorbidity (two or more chronic conditions). Crude and adjusted Poisson regression models were built to assess the association of interest, and prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were reported. Results  We analyzed data from 1,607 subjects with a mean age of 48.2 (standard deviation [SD]: ± 10.6) years, 809 (50.3%) of whom were women. Multimorbidity was present in 634 (39.5%; 95%CI: 37.1-41.9%) subjects, and 193 (12.1%; 95%CI: 10.5-13.7%) were short sleepers, 131 (8.2%; 95%CI: 6.9-9.6%) were long sleepers, and 312 (19.5%; 95%CI: 17.5-21.5%) had poor sleep quality. In the multivariable model, multimorbidity was associated with prolonged sleep duration (PR = 1.45; 95%CI: 1.03-2.04) and poor sleep quality (PR = 2.04; 95%CI: 1.65-2.52). Conclusions  Multimorbidity was associated with prolonged, but not short, sleep duration, as well as with poor sleep quality. Our results suggest the need of assessing sleep patterns among adults with multimorbidity.

Stroke in Latin America: Systematic review of incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality in 1997-2021

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a major global cause of death and disability. Most strokes occur in populations of low-middle-income country (LMIC); therefore, the subsequent disease burden is greater than in populations of high-income countries. Few epidemiological data exist for stroke in Latin America, composed primarily of LMIC.

AIMS

To determine epidemiological measures of incidence, prevalence, and 1-month case-fatality for stroke in Latin America/Caribbean (LAC) during 1997-2021.

SUMMARY OF REVIEW

A structured search was conducted to identify relevant references from MEDLINE, WOS, and LILACS databases for prospective observational and cross-sectional studies in LAC populations from January 1997 to December 2021. A total of 9242 records were screened and 12 selected for analysis, seven incidence studies and five prevalence studies. Case-fatality was reported in six articles. Sub-group analysis by age, sex, and income countries was performed. A narrative synthesis of the findings was performed. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effect model to obtain pooled estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Studies quality was assessed according to the risk of bias criteria described in the Joanna Briggs Institute's guide. The overall crude annual incidence rate of first-ever stroke in LAC was 119.0 (95% CI = 95.9-142.1)/100,000 people (with high heterogeneity between studies (I² = 98.1%)). The overall crude prevalence was 3060 (95% CI: 95.9-142.1)/100,000 people (with high heterogeneity between studies (I² = 98.8%)). The overall case-fatality at 1 month after the first stroke was 21.1% (95% CI = 18.6-23.7) (I² = 49.40%).

CONCLUSION

This review contributes to our understanding regarding the burden caused by stroke in LAC. More studies with comparable designs are needed to generate reliable data and should include both standardized criteria, such as the World Health Organization clinical criteria and updated standard methods of case assurance, data collection, and reporting.

Effects of potential risk factors on the development of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and mortality among the elders in China

Objectives

To examine the impact of demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors on the development of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and mortality in Chinese elders.

Methods

Data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) 2002–2018 was used in the study. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more cardiometabolic disorders, such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), heart disease, or stroke. Cox regression model and multi-state Markov model were developed to evaluate the association of the study factors with the progression of cardiometabolic conditions and mortality. The outcomes included three states (first cardiometabolic disease, cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and all-cause mortality) and five possible transitions among the three states.

Results

Of the 13,933 eligible individuals, 7,917 (56.8%) were female, and 9,540 (68.50%) were over 80 years old. 2,766 (19.9%) participants had their first cardiometabolic disease, 975 (7.0%) participants suffered from cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and 9,365 (67.2%) participants died. The progression to cardiometabolic multimorbidity was positively associated with being female (HR = 1.42; 95%CI, 1.10 − 1.85), living in the city (HR = 1.41; 95%CI, 1.04 − 1.93), overweight (HR = 1.43; 95%CI, 1.08 − 1.90), and obesity (HR = 1.75; 95% CI, 1.03 − 2.98). A higher risk for the first cardiometabolic disease was associated with being female (HR = 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15 − 1.39), higher socioeconomic status (SES, HR = 1.17; 95%CI, 1.07 − 1.28), lack of regular physical activity (HR = 1.13; 95%CI, 1.04 − 1.23), smoking (HR = 1.20; 95%CI, 1.08 − 1.33), ≤ 5 h sleep time (HR = 1.15; 95%CI, 1.02 − 1.30), overweight (HR = 1.48; 95% CI, 1.32 − 1.66), and obesity (HR = 1.34; 95%CI, 1.06 − 1.69). It also should be noted that not in marriage, lower SES and unhealthy behavioral patterns were risk factors for mortality.

Conclusion

This study emphasized the importance of lifestyle and SES in tackling the development of cardiometabolic conditions among Chinese elders and provided a reference for policy-makers to develop a tailored stage-specific intervention strategy.

Multimorbidity

Multimorbidity (two or more coexisting conditions in an individual) is a growing global challenge with substantial effects on individuals, carers and society. Multimorbidity occurs a decade earlier in socioeconomically deprived communities and is associated with premature death, poorer function and quality of life and increased health-care utilization. Mechanisms underlying the development of multimorbidity are complex, interrelated and multilevel, but are related to ageing and underlying biological mechanisms and broader determinants of health such as socioeconomic deprivation. Little is known about prevention of multimorbidity, but focusing on psychosocial and behavioural factors, particularly population level interventions and structural changes, is likely to be beneficial. Most clinical practice guidelines and health-care training and delivery focus on single diseases, leading to care that is sometimes inadequate and potentially harmful. Multimorbidity requires person-centred care, prioritizing what matters most to the individual and the individual's carers, ensuring care that is effectively coordinated and minimally disruptive, and aligns with the patient's values. Interventions are likely to be complex and multifaceted. Although an increasing number of studies have examined multimorbidity interventions, there is still limited evidence to support any approach. Greater investment in multimorbidity research and training along with reconfiguration of health care supporting the management of multimorbidity is urgently needed.

Racial inequalities in multimorbidity: baseline of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

BACKGROUND

Evidence of multimorbidity has come mainly from high-income regions, while disparities among racial groups have been less explored. This study examined racial differences in multimorbidity in the multiracial cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto), ELSA-Brasil.

METHODS

The study examined baseline (2008-2010) data for 14 099 ELSA-Brasil participants who self-reported being white, mixed-race, or black. A list of 16 morbidities was used to evaluate multimorbidity, operationalised by simple count into ≥ 2, ≥ 3, ≥ 4, ≥ 5 and ≥ 6 morbidities, in addition to evaluating the number of coexisting conditions. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated from logistic models and a quantile model was used to examine racial differences graphically in the distribution quantiles for the number of morbidities.

RESULTS

Overall prevalence of multimorbidity (≥ 2 morbidities) was 70% and, after controlling for age and sex, was greater among mixed-race and black participants - by 6% (PR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.03-1.08) and 9% (PR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.06-1.12), respectively - than among white participants. As the cutoff value for defining multimorbidity was raised, so the strength of the association increased, especially among blacks: if set at ≥ 6 morbidities, the prevalence was 27% greater for those of mixed-race (PR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.07-1.50) and 47% greater for blacks (PR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.22-1.76) than for whites. The disparities were smaller in the lower morbidity distribution quantiles and larger in the upper quantiles, indicating a heavier burden of disease, particularly on blacks.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity was common among adults and older adults in a Brazilian cohort, but important racial inequalities were found. Raising the cutoff point for defining multimorbidity revealed stronger associations between race/skin colour and multimorbidity, indicating a higher prevalence of multimorbidity among mixed-race and black individuals than among whites and that the former groups coexisted more often with more complex health situations (with more coexisting morbidities). Interventions to prevent and manage the condition of multimorbidity that consider the social determinants of health and historically discriminated populations in low- and middle-income regions are necessary.

Multimorbidity matters in low and middle-income countries

Multimorbidity is a complex challenge affecting individuals, families, caregivers, and health systems worldwide. The burden of multimorbidity is remarkable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) given the many existing challenges in these settings. Investigating multimorbidity in LMICs poses many challenges including the different conditions studied, and the restriction of data sources to relatively few countries, limiting comparability and representativeness. This has led to a paucity of evidence on multimorbidity prevalence and trends, disease clusters, and health outcomes, particularly longitudinal outcomes. In this paper, based on our experience of investigating multimorbidity in LMICs contexts, we discuss how the structure of the health system does not favor addressing multimorbidity, and how this is amplified by social and economic disparities and, more recently, by the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that generating epidemiologic data around multimorbidity with similar methods and definition is essential to improve comparability, guide clinical decision-making and inform policies, research priorities, and local responses. We call for action on policy to refinance and prioritize primary care and integrated care as the center of multimorbidity.