Aging of the population may not lead to an increase in the numbers of acute coronary events: a community surveillance study and modelled forecast of the future

Editor's Choice - Epidemiology, Diagnostics, and Outcomes of Acute Occlusive Arterial Mesenteric Ischaemia: A Population Based Study

OBJECTIVE

The exact incidence and outcomes of acute occlusive arterial mesenteric ischaemia (AMI) are unclear as most studies include only patients diagnosed correctly while alive. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence, mortality, and diagnostics of AMI by also including patients diagnosed post-mortem.

METHODS

This retrospective study comprised patients diagnosed with AMI either alive or post-mortem between 2006 and 2015 within a healthcare district serving 1.6 million inhabitants. Key exclusion criteria were venous or non-obstructive ischaemia.

RESULTS

A total of 470 patients were included in the study of which 137 (29%) were diagnosed post-mortem. The most common misdiagnoses on those not diagnosed alive were unspecified infection (n = 19, 17%), gastrointestinal bleeding (n = 13, 11%), and ileus (n = 13, 11%). Of those diagnosed alive (n = 333), 187 (56%) underwent active surgical or endovascular treatment. During the 2006 - 2015 period, the overall incidence of AMI was 3.05 (95% CI 2.78 - 3.34)/100 000 person years and 26.66 (95% CI 24.07 - 29.45) for those aged 70 years or more. The mean autopsy rate during the study period was 29% for the overall population (32% during 2006 - 2010 and 25% during 2011 - 2015) and 18% for those aged 70 years or more. Overall, the 90-day mortality was 83% in all patients. The ninety day mortality decreased, being 87% during the first period (2006 - 2010) and 79% during the second period (2011 - 2015) (p = .029), while at the same time the proportion of patients diagnosed alive rose from 71% to 80% (p = .030) and the number of endovascular revascularisations rose from 1% to 5% (p = .022).

CONCLUSION

A significant proportion of patients with AMI are not diagnosed alive, which is reflected in the mortality rates. Post-mortem examinations and autopsy rate data continue to be key factors in epidemiological studies on AMI.

Forecast of myocardial infarction incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035 using a microsimulation model with endogenous disease outcomes

Background

Models that forecast non-communicable disease rates are poorly designed to predict future changes in trend because they are based on exogenous measures of disease rates. We introduce microPRIME, which forecasts myocardial infarction (MI) incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035. microPRIME can forecast changes in trend as all MI rates emerge from competing trends in risk factors and treatment.

Materials and methods

microPRIME is a microsimulation of MI events within a sample of 114,000 agents representative of England. We simulate 37 annual time points from 1998 to 2035, where agents can have an MI event, die from an MI, or die from an unrelated cause. The probability of each event is a function of age, sex, BMI, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, diabetes and previous MI. This function does not change over time. Instead population-level changes in MI rates are due to competing trends in risk factors and treatment. Uncertainty estimates are based on 450 model runs that use parameters calibrated against external measures of MI rates between 1999 and 2011.

Findings

Forecasted MI incidence rates fall for men and women of different age groups before plateauing in the mid 2020s. Age-standardised event rates show a similar pattern, with a non-significant upturn by 2035, larger for men than women. Prevalence in men decreases for the oldest age groups, with peaks of prevalence rates in 2019 for 85 and older at 25.8% (23.3–28.3). For women, prevalence rates are more stable. Prevalence in over 85s is estimated as 14.5% (12.6–16.5) in 2019, and then plateaus thereafter.

Conclusion

We may see an increase in event rates from MI in England for men before 2035 but increases for women are unlikely. Prevalence rates may fall in older men, and are likely to remain stable in women over the next decade and a half.

Score2: A New Updated Algorithm to Predict Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Europe

The recently published guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases presented in August 2021 at the virtual European Society of Cardiology congress recommend the use of the SCORE2 risk index instead of the classic SCORE risk index to calculate the cardiovascular risk (specifically, ten-year fatal and nonfatal risk) in a healthy population under the age of 70 years, with a level of evidence IB. This new risk index was developed with the collaboration of about 200 investigators, including 45 cohorts in 13 countries with 700,000 participants, and covers the known risk factors for heart and circulatory diseases such as age, sex, lipid levels, blood pressure, and smoking. In addition, it divides the countries into four groups of risk and uses a competing risk model, adjusting the risk for the probability of having another event, which enables better estimation of the risk of fatal and nonfatal events in a younger population (40-69 years).

SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

AIMS

The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.

CONCLUSION

SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Morbidity and Mortality in American Indians Over 25 Years: The Strong Heart Study

Background American Indians experience high rates of cardiovascular disease. We evaluated whether cardiovascular disease incidence, mortality, and prevalence changed over 25 years among American Indians aged 30 to 85. Methods and Results The SHS (Strong Heart Study) and SHFS (Strong Heart Family Study) are prospective studies of cardiovascular disease in American Indians. Participants enrolled in 1989 to 1990 or 2000 to 2003 with birth years from 1915 to 1984 were followed for cardiovascular disease events through 2013. We used Poisson regression to analyze data for 5627 individuals aged 30 to 85 years during follow-up. Outcomes reflect change in age-specific cardiovascular disease incidence, mortality, and prevalence, stratified by sex. To illustrate generational change, 5-year relative risk compared most recent birth years for ages 45, 55, 65, and 75 to same-aged counterparts born 1 generation (23-25 years) earlier. At all ages, cardiovascular disease incidence was lower for people with more recent birth years. Cardiovascular disease mortality declined consistently among men, while prevalence declined among women. Generational comparisons were similar for women aged 45 to 75 (relative risk, 0.39-0.46), but among men magnitudes strengthened from age 45 to 75 (relative risk, 0.91-0.39). For cardiovascular disease mortality, risk was lower in the most recent versus the earliest birth years for women (relative risk, 0.56-0.83) and men (relative risk, 0.40-0.54), but results for women were inconclusive. Conclusions Cardiovascular disease incidence declined over a generation in an American Indian cohort. Mortality declined more for men, while prevalence declined more for women. These trends might reflect more improvement in case survival among men compared with women.

Case fatality of acute coronary events is improving even among elderly patients; the FINAMI study 1995-2012

AIM

To examine trends in incidence and 28-day case fatality of myocardial infarction (MI) in persons aged 75-99 years in four areas of Finland.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Finnish Acute Myocardial Infarction (FINAMI) register is a population-based MI register study, which during 1995-2012 recorded 30561 suspected acute coronary syndromes in persons aged ≥75 years. Of them, 16229 fulfilled the American Heart Association criteria for a definite, probable or possible MI or coronary death. This age-group contributed 56.8% of all MIs of which 62.7% occurred in women. The incidence of MI decreased by -3.3%/year (95% CI -4.2; -2.4) in women aged 75-84 years, and by -1.2%/year (-1.9; -0.5) in women aged 85-99 years, but among men in these age-groups, only a non-significant reduction occurred. The 28-day case fatality of MI was high. In the age-group 75-84 years, it decreased non-significantly by -1.6%/year in men, and significantly by -2.4%/year (-3.9; -0.8) in women. In the age-group 85-99 years, the decrease was more remarkable: -5.1%/year (-7.8; -2.3) and -3.9%/year (-5.5; -2.2), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In Finland, more than half of MIs occur in the age-group 75-99 years, and most of them in women. The incidence of MI decreased significantly in elderly women but non-significantly in elderly men. The 28-day case fatality decreased especially in the age-group 85-99 years. Key Messages In Finland, more than one half of all myocardial infarctions (MIs) occur in the age-group of 75 years or older. Furthermore, 62.7% of MIs among elderly patients occur among women, although 58.0% of the elderly population are women. The incidence of MI decreased significantly in elderly women but not in elderly men. The 28-day case fatality in elderly patients was high but decreased significantly during the study period 1995-2012. This study provides population-based data on treatment strategies and trends in incidence, event rate, mortality and case fatality of MI in elderly individuals. Elderly patients with acute coronary syndromes still present a remarkable burden to the healthcare system in Finland as well as in many other developed countries. Especially considering the modern trend of reducing hospital resources and shifting patient care to outpatient clinics, the epidemiology of MI in elderly patients remains an important issue for the future planning of the healthcare system.

40-Year CHD Mortality Trends and the Role of Risk Factors in Mortality Decline: The North Karelia Project Experience

In the 1960s and early 1970s, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Finland was the highest in the world, and within Finland, mortality was particularly high in the eastern part of the country. The North Karelia Project, the first large community-based cardiovascular diseases prevention program was established in 1972 to reduce the extremely high CHD mortality through behavioral change and reduction of the main cardiovascular disease risk factors among the whole population of North Karelia, the easternmost province of Finland. During the 40-year period from 1972 to 2012, smoking prevalence, serum total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure declined markedly, except a small increase in serum cholesterol levels between 2007 and 2012. From the early 1970s to 2012, CHD mortality decreased by 82% (from 643 to 118 per 100,000) among working-age (35 to 64 years) men. Among working-age women, the decline was 84% (from 114 to 17 per 100,000). During the first 10 years, changes in these 3 target risk factors explained nearly all of the observed mortality reduction. Since the mid-1980s, the observed reduction in mortality has been larger than the predicted reduction. In the early 1970s, premature CHD mortality (35 to 74 years) was about 37% higher among Eastern Finnish men and 23% higher among Eastern Finnish women, compared with men and women in Southwestern Finland. During the last 40 years, premature CHD mortality declined markedly in both areas, but the decline was larger in Eastern Finland and the mortality gap between the two areas nearly disappeared.

Acute mesenteric ischemia (part I) - Incidence, etiologies, and how to improve early diagnosis

Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is generally thought to be a rare disease, but in fact, it is more common cause of acute abdomen than appendicitis or ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm in patients over 75 years of age. In occlusive AMI, surgical treatment without revascularization is associated with as high as 80% overall mortality. It has been shown that early diagnosis with contrast-enhanced computed tomography and revascularization can reduce the overall mortality in AMI by up to 50%. However, only a minority of patients with AMI are being treated actively with revascularization in the United States, and the situation is very likely similar in Europe as well. What can we do to improve diagnostic performance, so that more patients get proper treatment? The diagnosis is a collaborative effort of emergency department surgeons, gastrointestinal and vascular surgeons, and radiologists. The etiological categorization of AMI should be practical and guide the therapy. Furthermore, the limitations of the diagnostic examinations need to be understood with special emphasis on computed tomography findings on patients with slowly progressing "acute-on-chronic" mesenteric ischemia.

Decreased mortality risk due to first acute coronary syndrome in women with postmenopausal hormone therapy use

OBJECTIVES

The role of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) in the incidence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has been studied extensively, but less is known of the impact of HT on the mortality risk due to an ACS.

STUDY DESIGN AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We extracted from a population-based ACS register, FINAMI, 7258 postmenopausal women with the first ACS. These data were combined with HT use data from the National Drug Reimbursement Register; 625 patients (9%) had used various HT regimens. The death risks due to ACS before admission to hospital, 2-28, or 29-365days after the incident ACS were compared between HT users and non-users with logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

In all follow-up time points, the ACS death risks in HT ever-users were smaller compared to non-users. Of women with HT ever use, 42% died within one year as compared with 52% of non-users (OR 0.62, p<0.001). Most deaths (84%) occurred within 28days after the ACS, and in this group 36% of women with ever use of HT (OR 0.73, p=0.002) and 30% of women with ≥5year HT use (OR 0.54, p<0.001) died as compared to 43% of the non-users. Age ≤60 or >60 years at the HT initiation was accompanied with similar reductions in ACS mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Postmenopausal HT use is accompanied with reduced mortality risk after primary ACS.

Primary prevention and risk factor reduction in coronary heart disease mortality among working aged men and women in eastern Finland over 40 years: population based observational study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate how much changes in the main risk factors of cardiovascular disease (smoking prevalence, serum cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure) can explain the reduction in coronary heart disease mortality observed among working aged men and women in eastern Finland.

DESIGN

Population based observational study.

SETTING

Eastern Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

34,525 men and women aged 30-59 years who participated in the national FINRISK studies between 1972 and 2012.

INTERVENTIONS

Change in main cardiovascular risk factors through population based primary prevention.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predicted and observed age standardised mortality due to coronary heart disease. Predicted change was estimated with a logistic regression model using risk factor data collected in nine consecutive, population based, risk factor surveys conducted every five years since 1972. Data on observed mortality were obtained from the National Causes of Death Register.

RESULTS

During the 40 year study period, levels of the three major cardiovascular risk factors decreased except for a small increase in serum cholesterol levels between 2007 and 2012. From years 1969-1972 to 2012, coronary heart disease mortality decreased by 82% (from 643 to 118 deaths per 100,000 people) and 84% (114 to 17) among men and women aged 35-64 years, respectively. During the first 10 years of the study, changes in these three target risk factors contributed to nearly all of the observed mortality reduction. Since the mid-1980s, the observed reduction in mortality has been larger than predicted. In the last 10 years of the study, about two thirds (69% in men and 66% in women) of the reduction could be explained by changes in the three main risk factors, and the remaining third by other factors.

CONCLUSION

Reductions in disease burden and mortality due to coronary heart disease can be achieved through the use of population based primary prevention programmes. Secondary prevention among high risk individuals and treatment of acute events of coronary heart disease could confer additional benefit.

Gender-specific and age-specific differences in unstable angina pectoris admissions: a population-based registry study in Finland

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate gender-specific and age-specific differences in the occurrence of unstable angina pectoris (UAP) caused admissions.

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective registry study in Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

All consecutive patients aged ≥30 years hospitalised with a primary diagnosis of UAP in 22 hospitals with a coronary catheterisation laboratory during 5/2000-10/2009.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Gender-specific and age-specific differences and trends in occurrence of UAP admissions.

RESULTS

The study period included 27 282 admissions caused primarily by UAP. Of these, 61.9% occurred to men and 38.1% to women with age-adjusted relative risk (RR) of 1.85 (CI 1.61 to 2.14) for the male gender (p<0.0001). The standardised incidence rate of UAP during the whole study was 92.8 (CI 91.8 to 93.9)/100,000 person-years. The incidence rate increased gradually from 1.3 in the population aged 30-34 years to 268.0/100,000 in the population aged 75-84 years. Men had a 2.4-fold risk for UAP admission compared with women in the general population (incidence rate ratio 2.39; CI 2.24 to 2.56; p<0.0001). Gender difference was present in all age groups. UAP caused 22.4% of acute coronary syndrome admissions and 4.7% of all cardiovascular admissions. UAP was more likely to be the cause of cardiovascular admission in male patients (RR=1.25; CI 1.21 to 1.30, p<0.0001 compared with female patients), but there was no gender difference in acute coronary syndrome admissions. The incidence rate of UAP hospitalisations in the general population declined by an estimated 8% per study-year (p<0.0001). Declining incidence was evident regardless of gender and age.

CONCLUSIONS

Men have a 2.4-fold overall RR for UAP admission compared to women in the general population. Admissions due to UAP have a declining incidence trend across the adult Finnish population.

Acute Mesenteric Ischemia Is a More Common Cause than Expected of Acute Abdomen in the Elderly

BACKGROUND

The incidence of acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) increases exponentially with age. The significance of AMI as a differential diagnosis in elderly patients with acute abdomen may be underestimated.

METHODS

Consecutive patients hospitalized for AMI between 2009 and 2013 were retrospectively identified in a well-defined population. Acute appendicitis, ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, acute pancreatitis, and acute cholecystitis were used as reference diagnoses, and the age-specific incidence rates were calculated. In addition, long-term mortality risk was assessed for AMI survivors.

RESULTS

The in-hospital incidence rates of AMI, acute obstructive mesenteric ischemia, and non-obstructive mesenteric ischemia were 7.3, 4.5, and 2.0/100,000/year, respectively. AMI was more common than ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, and the age-specific incidence of AMI was higher than the incidence of acute appendicitis in patients over age 75 years with acute abdomen. During the follow-up, the age-adjusted risk of death was 1.8 times higher in AMI survivors than in survivors of acute cholecystitis.

CONCLUSION

AMI may be a more common cause of acute abdomen in elderly patients than is generally thought, emphasizing the importance of performing urgent computed tomography with contrast enhancement preferably in arterial and venous phases in these patients.

Twenty-five-year trends in myocardial infarction attack and mortality rates, and case-fatality, in six European populations

OBJECTIVE

Due to the burden of coronary heart disease (CHD), the monitoring of CHD trends is required. This study sought to examine the acute myocardial infarction (AMI) trends in attack and mortality rates, and in 28-day case-fatality, in six European populations during 1985-2010.

METHODS

Data consisted of 78 128 AMI events included in eight population-based registries from Finland (several populations), Italy (Brianza and Varese), Germany (Augsburg), France (Haute-Garonne), Spain (Girona) and Estonia (Tallinn). AMI event rates and case-fatality trends were analysed using the annual percentage change (APC) obtained by negative binomial and joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

AMI attack and mortality rates decreased in most populations. Finland experienced the steepest decline in attack rates (APC=-4.4% (95% CI -5.1 to -2.9) in men; -4.0% (-5.1 to -2.8), in women). Total-hospital and inhospital case-fatality decreased in all populations except in Tallinn. The steepest decline in total case-fatality occurred in Spain (-3.8% (-5.3 to -2.4) in men; -5.1% (-6.9 to -3.3) in women). Prehospital case-fatality trends differed significantly by population and sex. The trends for all included populations showed a significant decline in AMI event rates and case-fatality, in both sexes and all age groups. However, in women aged 65-74 years, a significant increase in total case-fatality occurred in 2005-2010 (4.7% (0.7 to 8.8)).

CONCLUSIONS

AMI event rates and inhospital case-fatality declined in 1985-2010 in almost all populations analysed. Prehospital case-fatality declined only in certain population groups, showing differences by sex. These results highlight the need of specific strategies in AMI prevention for certain groups and populations.

Clinical and lifestyle-related risk factors for incident multimorbidity: 10-year follow-up of Finnish population-based cohorts 1982-2012

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is a huge burden to individuals and societies and more attention should be paid on its risk factors and prevention possibilities. The aim of this study was to investigate which clinical and lifestyle characteristics predict the development of multimorbidity both among initially disease-free people and among people who have diabetes or CVD.

METHODS

Data comprised 25-64 year old, randomly selected men and women (n=32,972) who participated in one of the five national FINRISK surveys between 1982 and 2002 in Finland. The surveys included anthropometric measurements, blood samples and structured questionnaire. Data on incident diagnoses of the five most common chronic diseases during 10 years were received from the national registers on mortality, hospitalizations, and reimbursement rights.

RESULTS

Predisposing factors for multimorbidity among disease-free population were smoking, physical inactivity, and BMI. Among men also systolic blood pressure and low education predicted multimorbidity. Among men with DM at baseline, high blood pressure, physical inactivity, and smoking increased the likelihood of incident multimorbidity. Among women, significant predictors of multimorbidity were high BMI and smoking. Among men and women with CVD, the only baseline factor that was significantly associated with the development of multimorbidity in the multivariate prediction model was low fruit and vegetable consumption.

CONCLUSION

Several modifiable clinical and lifestyle risk factors were found to predict incident multimorbidity. Better recognition and management of these risk factors could potentially have a large impact on the development of multimorbidity, and consequently, premature mortality and costs of care among the aging populations.

Projected age- and sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045

BACKGROUND

For decades, the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have declined. More recently, we have seen a halting in these declines, especially at younger ages. It is difficult to predict how these changing trends will impact CVD prevalence. We aimed to predict future prevalence of CVDs in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045 based on current incidence and mortality probabilities, population growth and ageing.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Multi-state life table models were developed using 2005-2009 age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality probabilities from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Prevalence of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke was projected until 2045. Life expectancy and lifetime risk were estimated. We estimate that compared to 2005-2009, we will see 37,235 (CVD), 23,129 (CHD) and 9806 (stroke) more incident cases in 2040-2044. The prevalence of total CVD is predicted to increase from 8.4% in men and 5.1% in women in 2005 to 12.7% and 7.9% respectively in 2045. This seems to be mainly due to population growth and ageing, with some effect of changing incidence and mortality. In Western Australia this represents an additional 106,949 adults living with CVD, of which 65,951 with CHD and 10,928 with stroke, in 2045 compared to 2005.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming no major changes in prevention and treatment of CVD, the prevalence will likely increase, with consequent increases in health care need and cost. These findings need to be confirmed by studies in which prevalence is consistently and empirically measured and monitored over time.

Likelihood and predictors of ST-elevation in patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction

Importance

Emergency treatment options in myocardial infarction are guided by presence or absence of ST-elevations in electrocardiography. Occurrence and factors associated with ST-presentation in different population groups are however inadequately known.

Objective

To determine likelihood and patient features associated with ST-elevations in myocardial infarction.

Design

Nationwide registry study including 22 hospitals with angiolaboratory during an eight year period in Finland.

Setting

Hospitalized care.

Participants

68,162 consecutive patients aged ≥30 with myocardial infarction.

Measures

Likelihood and patient features associated with presence of ST-elevations.

Results

Myocardial infarction presented with ST-elevation in 37.5% (CI 37.0–37.9%) and without in 62.5% (CI 61.9–63.1%) of patients, p<0.0001. Majority of patients aged 30–59 years with myocardial infarction had ST-elevation, but among octogenarians ST-elevations were present in only 24.7%. Presence of ST-elevations decreased with age by estimated 15.6% (CI 15.0–16.2%) per 10 year increase (p<0.0001). Men aged 40–79 years had significantly higher rate for ST-elevation myocardial infarction compared to women. Sex-based difference in presentation of myocardial infarction declined with increasing age. Overall, men had a 13% (CI 11–15%, p<0.0001) higher relative risk for ST-elevations compared to women when adjusted for age and co-morbidities. Diabetes, atrial fibrillation, peripheral or cerebral artery disease, chronic pulmonary disease, malignancy, and renal insufficiency were associated with absence of ST-elevations in myocardial infarction in multivariate analysis.

Conclusions and Relevance

Myocardial infarction presents with ST-elevations more commonly in men. Presence of ST-elevations decreases with increasing age. Diabetes, atrial fibrillation, peripheral or cerebral artery disease, chronic pulmonary disease, malignancy, and renal insufficiency are associated with absence of ST-elevations in myocardial infarction. These findings may help to predict likelihood of ST-elevations in a patient with myocardial infarction.

Association of age and gender with risk for non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Age and gender associated risks for non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) at the population level are largely uncharacterized.

DESIGN

Nationwide, population (26,724,165 person-years) based eight-year registry-study in Finland.

METHODS

Gender- and age-associated frequency and incidence of NSTEMI were studied using a nationwide, population based registry of hospital admissions in patients aged ≥30 years during 2001-2008. Patients with NSTEMI as primary (88%), secondary (10%) or tertiary (2%) discharge diagnosis were included. Data was collected nationwide from all 22 hospitals with a coronary angiolaboratory.

RESULTS

The study period included 48,584 NSTEMI admissions of which 55.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 54.6-56.0%) were of men and 44.7% (CI 44.1-45.3%) were of women, with age-adjusted relative risk of 1.86 (CI 1.60-2.16, p < 0.0001) for male gender. Female patients were significantly older than males (77.8 SD 10.2 vs. 70.2 SD 11.9 years, p < 0.0001). Standardized incidence rate of NSTEMI was 20.6 (CI 20.4-20.8)/10,000 person-years overall, 28.7 (CI 28.3-29.0)/10,000 in men and 15.0 (CI 14.7-15.2)/10,000 in women. Men had a 2.36-fold (CI 2.23-2.49; p < 0.0001) age-adjusted relative risk for NSTEMI compared with women, with highest risk difference in population under 40 years of age (relative risk 4.48; CI 3.10-6.48, p < 0.0001). Incidence increased with age by an estimated gender-adjusted increase rate of 61% (CI 59-62%; p < 0.0001) per five-year increase in age.

CONCLUSIONS

Men have a 2.4-fold overall risk for NSTEMI compared with women, with highest relative risk in young adults. Incidence rate of non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction increases by an estimated 61% per five-year increase in age.