Partial substitution of red meat or processed meat with plant-based foods and the risk of colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVES

Shifting from animal-based to plant-based diets could reduce colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. Currently, the impacts of these dietary shifts on CRC risk are ill-defined. Therefore, we examined partial substitutions of red or processed meat with whole grains, vegetables, fruits or a combination of these in relation to CRC risk in Finnish adults.

METHODS

We pooled five Finnish cohorts, resulting in 43 788 participants aged ≥ 25 years (79% men). Diet was assessed by validated food frequency questionnaires at study enrolment. We modelled partial substitutions of red (100 g/week) or processed meat (50 g/week) with corresponding amounts of plant-based foods. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR) for CRC were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models and pooled together using random-effects models. Adjustments included age, sex, energy intake and other relevant confounders.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up of 28.8 years, 1124 CRCs were diagnosed. We observed small risk reductions when red meat was substituted with vegetables (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 - 0.99), fruits (0.97, 0.94 - 0.99), or whole grains, vegetables and fruits combined (0.97, 0.95 - 0.99). For processed meat, these substitutions yielded 1% risk reductions. Substituting red or processed meat with whole grains was associated with a decreased CRC risk only in participants with < median whole grain intake (0.92, 0.86 - 0.98; 0.96, 0.93 - 0.99, respectively; pinteraction=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Even small, easily implemented substitutions of red or processed meat with whole grains, vegetables or fruits could lower CRC risk in a population with high meat consumption. These findings broaden our insight into dietary modifications that could foster CRC primary prevention.

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Different carbohydrate exposures and weight gain-results from a pooled analysis of three population-based studies

BACKGROUND

The role of carbohydrate quantity and quality in weight gain remains unsolved, and research on carbohydrate subcategories is scarce. We examined total carbohydrates, dietary fiber, total sugar, and sucrose intake in relation to the risk of weight gain in Finnish adults.

METHODS

Our data comprised 8327 adults aged 25-70 years in three population-based prospective cohorts. Diet was assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire and nutrient intakes were calculated utilizing the Finnish Food Composition Database. Anthropometric measurements were collected according to standard protocols. Two-staged pooling was applied to derive relative risks across cohorts for weight gain of at least 5% by exposure variable intake quintiles in a 7-year follow-up. Linear trends were examined based on a Wald test.

RESULTS

No association was observed between intakes of total carbohydrate, dietary fiber, total sugar or sucrose and the risk of weight gain of at least 5%. Yet, total sugar intake had a borderline protective association with the risk of weight gain in participants with obesity (RR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-1.00 for highest vs. lowest quintile) and sucrose intake in participants with ≥10% decrease in carbohydrate intake during the follow-up (RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.61-1.00) after adjustments for sex, age, baseline weight, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy intake. Further adjustment for fruit consumption strengthened the associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings do not support an association between carbohydrate intake and weight gain. However, the results suggested that concurrent changes in carbohydrate intake might be an important determinant of weight change and should be further examined in future studies.

Partial substitution of red or processed meat with plant-based foods and the risk of type 2 diabetes

High consumption of red and processed meat has been associated with increased type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. These kinds of diets are also environmentally unsustainable. We examined a modeled association between a partial substitution of red meat or processed meat with plant-based foods (legumes, vegetables, fruit, cereals, or a combination of these) and T2D risk among Finnish adults. We used pooled data from five Finnish cohorts (n = 41,662, 22% women, aged ≥ 25 years, 10.9 years median follow-up with 1750 incident T2D cases). Diet was assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire. In the substitution models, 100 g/week of red meat or 50 g/week of processed meat were substituted with similar amounts of plant-based substitutes. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards multivariable model and pooled using a two-staged random-effects model. We observed small, but statistically significant, reductions in T2D risk in men when red or processed meat were partially substituted with fruits (red meat: HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, P = 0.049, processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.005), cereals (red meat: 0.97, 0.95-0.99, P = 0.005, processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.004) or combination of plant-based foods (only processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.004) but not with legumes or vegetables. The findings of women were similar but not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that even small, easily implemented, shifts towards more sustainable diets may reduce T2D risk particularly in men.

Association of adiposity with morbidity in Finnish adults: A register-based follow-up study

AIMS

The aims of this study were to update risk estimates of obesity related co-morbidities and to provide evidence of the importance of obesity prevention to decision makers.

METHODS

The study included 25- to 74-year-old participants (N=22,977) of the National FINRISK Studies in 1997, 2002 and 2007. Body mass index was calculated from measured weight and height at baseline. Data on morbidity were ascertained via linkage to the National Hospital Discharge Register, the Cancer Register and the records of the Social Insurance Institution of Finland until the end of year 2018. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate associations between weight status and the risk of the end-point diseases during follow-up, with adjustment for age and smoking.

RESULTS

At baseline, 31% of participants had at least one of the investigated diseases. Overweight, obesity and severe obesity were associated with type 2 diabetes, gout, gallbladder diseases and knee and hip osteoarthritis during the follow-up in both men and women. The risk of coronary heart disease was increased in men who were overweight, obese and severely obese and in women who were obese and severely obese. Risk of asthma was increased only among women who were obese and severely obese. No associations were found between obesity and breast, prostate or colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The study showed a strong relationship between excess body weight and the prevalence and incidence of several diseases. Obesity prevention is essential to reduce disease burden in the future.

24-h urinary sodium excretion and the risk of adverse outcomes

AIMS

The objective was to evaluate whether sodium intake, assessed with the gold standard 24-h urinary collections, was related to long-term incidence of death, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM).

METHODS

A cohort of 4630 individuals aged 25-64 years collected 24-h urine samples in 1979-2002 and were followed up to 14 years for the incidence of any CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF) and DM event, and death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between the baseline salt intake and incident events and adjusted for baseline age, body mass index, serum cholesterol, prevalent DM, and stratified by sex and cohort baseline year.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, we observed 423 deaths, 424 CVD events (288 CHD events, 142 strokes, 139 HF events) and 161 DM events. Compared with the highest quartile of salt intake, persons in the lowest quartile had a lower incidence of CVD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.95, p = .02), CHD (HR 0.63 [95% CI 0.42-0.94], p = .02) and DM (HR 0.52 [95% CI 0.31-0.87], p = .01). The results were non-significant for mortality, HF, and stroke.

CONCLUSION

High sodium intake is associated with an increased incidence of CVD and DM.

P6222Changes in main CVD risk factors in Finland 1992–2017

Background

Systematic monitoring of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors started in eastern Finland already in the 1970s as part of the North Karelia Project. Later on risk factor monitoring was extended to other parts of the country.

Purpose

In this study we report the trends of main CVD risk factors in Finland from 1992 to 2017.

Methods

Study population consists of a population-based random sample of 31 402 men and women aged 25–64 years who participated in the FINRISK Studies from 1992 to 2012, and in the FinHealth Study in 2017. Data collection was done every five years. Participation rate decreased from 76% in 1992 to 56% in 2017. Study protocol included self-reported questionnaire data on smoking and other health behavior, measurements of height, weight and blood pressure, and venous blood sample for laboratory analysis. Blood pressure was measured two times, and the average of the measurements was calculated, total serum cholesterol was analyzed using enzymatic method, and LDL cholesterol was calculated using Friedewald formula.

Results

Smoking prevalence, mean blood pressure and total and LDL cholesterol levels declined markedly during the 25 year follow up but BMI, waist circumference and prevalence of obesity increased (table).

CVD risk factor change from 1992 to 2017 Risk factor Men 1992 Men 2017 p value Women 1992 Women 2017 p value Smoking (%) 36.7 20.6 <0.001 25.9 16.5 <0.001 SBP (mmHg) 136.6 131.2 <0.001 130.3 124.5 <0.001 DBP (mmHg) 82.7 81.6 <0.001 78.6 77.8 <0.001 Chol (mmol/L) 5.66 5.17 <0.001 5.42 5.18 <0.001 LDL chol (mmol/L) 3.54 3.16 <0.001 3.26 3.03 <0.001 BMI (kg/m2) 26.2 27.2 <0.001 25.1 26.4 <0.001 WC (cm) 92.8 96.1 <0.001 79.2 86.2 <0.001 Obesity (%) 15.7 23.2 <0.001 14.8 22.7 <0.001

Conclusions

The levels of main traditional CVD risk factors have markedly decreased among the Finnish population during the last 25 years but in the same time, obesity has become a major public health challenge.

Smoking and cancer, cardiovascular and total mortality among older adults: The Finrisk Study

Little information is available about the deleterious effect of smoking in older adults The objective of this study was to assess the relationship of smoking habits with cancer, CVD and all-cause mortality in late middle-age (45–64 years) and older (65–74) people. This cohort study of 6516 men and 6514 women studied the relationship of smoking habits with cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and older Finnish men and women during 1997–2013. The study cohort was followed up until the end of 2013 (median follow-up time was 11.8 years). Mortality data were obtained from the National Causes of Death Register and data on incident stroke events from the National Hospital Discharge Register. Adjusted Hazard ratios (HR) for total mortality were 2.61 (95% Confidence interval 2.15–3.18) among 45–64 years-old men and 2.59 (2.03–3.29) in 65–74 years-old men. The corresponding HRs for women 45–64 years-of-age were 3.21 (2.47–4.19) and 3.12 (2.09–4.68) for those 65–74 years-old, respectively. Adjusted HRs for CVD mortality in the 45–64 years-old and 65–74 years-old groups were 2.67 (1.92–2.67) and 1.95 (1.33–2.86) in men, and 4.28 (2.29–7.99) and 2.67 (1.28–5.58) in women, respectively. Among men, the risk difference between never and current smokers was 108/100.000 in the age-group 45–64 years, and 324/100.000 in the age group 65–74 years. Among women the differences were 52/100.000 and 196/100.000, respectively. In conclusion, absolute risk difference between never and current smokers are larger among the older age group. Smoking cessation counseling should routinely target also older adults in primary health-care.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis of fish and EPA+DHA consumption in 17 US and European cohorts

BACKGROUND

Regular fish and omega-3 consumption may have several health benefits and are recommended by major dietary guidelines. Yet, their intakes remain remarkably variable both within and across populations, which could partly owe to genetic influences.

OBJECTIVE

To identify common genetic variants that influence fish and dietary eicosapentaenoic acid plus docosahexaenoic acid (EPA+DHA) consumption.

DESIGN

We conducted genome-wide association (GWA) meta-analysis of fish (n = 86,467) and EPA+DHA (n = 62,265) consumption in 17 cohorts of European descent from the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) Consortium Nutrition Working Group. Results from cohort-specific GWA analyses (additive model) for fish and EPA+DHA consumption were adjusted for age, sex, energy intake, and population stratification, and meta-analyzed separately using fixed-effect meta-analysis with inverse variance weights (METAL software). Additionally, heritability was estimated in 2 cohorts.

RESULTS

Heritability estimates for fish and EPA+DHA consumption ranged from 0.13-0.24 and 0.12-0.22, respectively. A significant GWA for fish intake was observed for rs9502823 on chromosome 6: each copy of the minor allele (FreqA = 0.015) was associated with 0.029 servings/day (~1 serving/month) lower fish consumption (P = 1.96x10-8). No significant association was observed for EPA+DHA, although rs7206790 in the obesity-associated FTO gene was among top hits (P = 8.18x10-7). Post-hoc calculations demonstrated 95% statistical power to detect a genetic variant associated with effect size of 0.05% for fish and 0.08% for EPA+DHA.

CONCLUSIONS

These novel findings suggest that non-genetic personal and environmental factors are principal determinants of the remarkable variation in fish consumption, representing modifiable targets for increasing intakes among all individuals. Genes underlying the signal at rs72838923 and mechanisms for the association warrant further investigation.

Genome-wide physical activity interactions in adiposity - A meta-analysis of 200,452 adults

Physical activity (PA) may modify the genetic effects that give rise to increased risk of obesity. To identify adiposity loci whose effects are modified by PA, we performed genome-wide interaction meta-analyses of BMI and BMI-adjusted waist circumference and waist-hip ratio from up to 200,452 adults of European (n = 180,423) or other ancestry (n = 20,029). We standardized PA by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable where, on average, 23% of participants were categorized as inactive and 77% as physically active. While we replicate the interaction with PA for the strongest known obesity-risk locus in the FTO gene, of which the effect is attenuated by ~30% in physically active individuals compared to inactive individuals, we do not identify additional loci that are sensitive to PA. In additional genome-wide meta-analyses adjusting for PA and interaction with PA, we identify 11 novel adiposity loci, suggesting that accounting for PA or other environmental factors that contribute to variation in adiposity may facilitate gene discovery.

Naturally occurring and added sugar in relation to macronutrient intake and food consumption: results from a population-based study in adults

Associations between sugar intake and the remaining diet are poorly described in modern food environments. We aimed at exploring associations of high naturally occurring and added sugar intakes with sociodemographic characteristics, intake of macronutrients, fibre and selected food groups. Our data comprised 4842 Finnish adults aged 25-74 years, who participated in the population-based DIetary, Lifestyle and Genetic determinants of Obesity and Metabolic syndrome (DILGOM) study. Diet was assessed by a validated 131-item FFQ. The food item disaggregation approach was used to estimate sucrose and fructose intakes from natural sources (naturally occurring sugar) and all other sources (added sugar). Sex-specific trends in macronutrient, fibre and food group intakes across sugar type quartiles were determined with general linear modelling adjusting for age, energy intake, leisure-time physical activity, smoking, education and BMI. Overall, results were similar across sexes. Young age was found to be a determinant of higher added sugar and lower naturally occurring sugar intakes (P < 0·0001). High added sugar intake was associated with low fibre intake (P < 0·0001) accompanied with lower fruit (P < 0·0001 women; P = 0·022 men) and vegetable consumption (P < 0·0001) and higher wheat consumption (P = 0·0003 women; P < 0·0001 men). Opposite results were found for naturally occurring sugar. Butter consumption increased by 28-32 % (P < 0·0001) when shifting from the lowest to the highest added sugar intake quartile, while a decrease of 26-38 % (P < 0·0001) was found for naturally occurring sugar. Therefore, the associations of sugar types with dietary carbohydrate and fat quality seem opposing. Proper adjustments with dietary variables are needed when studying independent relationships between sugar and health.

Leisure-Time Physical Activity Reduces Total and Cardiovascular Mortality and Cardiovascular Disease Incidence in Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) is independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and with incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke in older adults.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study (median follow-up 11.8 years).

SETTING

Community, five Finnish provinces.

PARTICIPANTS

Men and women aged 65 to 74 who participated in a baseline risk factor survey between 1997 and 2007 in Finland (N = 2,456).

MEASUREMENTS

The study protocol included a self-administered questionnaire, health examination at the study site, and blood sample for laboratory analysis. LTPA was classified into three levels: low, moderate, high. Mortality data were obtained from the National Causes of Death Register and data on incident CVD (coronary heart disease, stroke) events from the National Hospital Discharge Register.

RESULTS

Multifactorial-adjusted (age, area, study year, sex, smoking, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, education, marital status) risks of total mortality (moderate: hazard ratio (HR) = 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.50-0.74; high: HR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.34-0.63, P for trend <.001), CVD mortality (moderate: HR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.33-0.64; high: HR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.20-0.59, P for trend <.001), and an incident CVD event (moderate HR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.54-0.88; high: HR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.38-0.79, P for trend <.001) were lower for those with moderate or high LTPA levels than for those with low LTPA levels. Further adjustment for self-reported inability to perform LTPA did not change the associations remarkably.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline LTPA reduces the risk of total and CVD mortality and incident CVD events in older adults independently of the major known CVD risk factors. The protective effect of LTPA is dose dependent.

Primary prevention and risk factor reduction in coronary heart disease mortality among working aged men and women in eastern Finland over 40 years: population based observational study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate how much changes in the main risk factors of cardiovascular disease (smoking prevalence, serum cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure) can explain the reduction in coronary heart disease mortality observed among working aged men and women in eastern Finland.

DESIGN

Population based observational study.

SETTING

Eastern Finland.

PARTICIPANTS

34,525 men and women aged 30-59 years who participated in the national FINRISK studies between 1972 and 2012.

INTERVENTIONS

Change in main cardiovascular risk factors through population based primary prevention.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predicted and observed age standardised mortality due to coronary heart disease. Predicted change was estimated with a logistic regression model using risk factor data collected in nine consecutive, population based, risk factor surveys conducted every five years since 1972. Data on observed mortality were obtained from the National Causes of Death Register.

RESULTS

During the 40 year study period, levels of the three major cardiovascular risk factors decreased except for a small increase in serum cholesterol levels between 2007 and 2012. From years 1969-1972 to 2012, coronary heart disease mortality decreased by 82% (from 643 to 118 deaths per 100,000 people) and 84% (114 to 17) among men and women aged 35-64 years, respectively. During the first 10 years of the study, changes in these three target risk factors contributed to nearly all of the observed mortality reduction. Since the mid-1980s, the observed reduction in mortality has been larger than predicted. In the last 10 years of the study, about two thirds (69% in men and 66% in women) of the reduction could be explained by changes in the three main risk factors, and the remaining third by other factors.

CONCLUSION

Reductions in disease burden and mortality due to coronary heart disease can be achieved through the use of population based primary prevention programmes. Secondary prevention among high risk individuals and treatment of acute events of coronary heart disease could confer additional benefit.

Gene × dietary pattern interactions in obesity: analysis of up to 68 317 adults of European ancestry

Obesity is highly heritable. Genetic variants showing robust associations with obesity traits have been identified through genome-wide association studies. We investigated whether a composite score representing healthy diet modifies associations of these variants with obesity traits. Totally, 32 body mass index (BMI)- and 14 waist-hip ratio (WHR)-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped, and genetic risk scores (GRS) were calculated in 18 cohorts of European ancestry (n = 68 317). Diet score was calculated based on self-reported intakes of whole grains, fish, fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds (favorable) and red/processed meats, sweets, sugar-sweetened beverages and fried potatoes (unfavorable). Multivariable adjusted, linear regression within each cohort followed by inverse variance-weighted, fixed-effects meta-analysis was used to characterize: (a) associations of each GRS with BMI and BMI-adjusted WHR and (b) diet score modification of genetic associations with BMI and BMI-adjusted WHR. Nominally significant interactions (P = 0.006-0.04) were observed between the diet score and WHR-GRS (but not BMI-GRS), two WHR loci (GRB14 rs10195252; LYPLAL1 rs4846567) and two BMI loci (LRRN6C rs10968576; MTIF3 rs4771122), for the respective BMI-adjusted WHR or BMI outcomes. Although the magnitudes of these select interactions were small, our data indicated that associations between genetic predisposition and obesity traits were stronger with a healthier diet. Our findings generate interesting hypotheses; however, experimental and functional studies are needed to determine their clinical relevance.

Clinical and lifestyle-related risk factors for incident multimorbidity: 10-year follow-up of Finnish population-based cohorts 1982-2012

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is a huge burden to individuals and societies and more attention should be paid on its risk factors and prevention possibilities. The aim of this study was to investigate which clinical and lifestyle characteristics predict the development of multimorbidity both among initially disease-free people and among people who have diabetes or CVD.

METHODS

Data comprised 25-64 year old, randomly selected men and women (n=32,972) who participated in one of the five national FINRISK surveys between 1982 and 2002 in Finland. The surveys included anthropometric measurements, blood samples and structured questionnaire. Data on incident diagnoses of the five most common chronic diseases during 10 years were received from the national registers on mortality, hospitalizations, and reimbursement rights.

RESULTS

Predisposing factors for multimorbidity among disease-free population were smoking, physical inactivity, and BMI. Among men also systolic blood pressure and low education predicted multimorbidity. Among men with DM at baseline, high blood pressure, physical inactivity, and smoking increased the likelihood of incident multimorbidity. Among women, significant predictors of multimorbidity were high BMI and smoking. Among men and women with CVD, the only baseline factor that was significantly associated with the development of multimorbidity in the multivariate prediction model was low fruit and vegetable consumption.

CONCLUSION

Several modifiable clinical and lifestyle risk factors were found to predict incident multimorbidity. Better recognition and management of these risk factors could potentially have a large impact on the development of multimorbidity, and consequently, premature mortality and costs of care among the aging populations.

Educational differences in estimated and measured physical fitness

BACKGROUND

Available information about the association between education and physical fitness (PF) is scarce. The purpose of this study was to examine educational differences in PF in the working age population using different methods to assess PF.

METHODS

The Health 2000 Survey was carried out for adults aged ≥ 30 years (n = 8028) in Finland. For this study, 30-54-year-old men and women with data on PF and physical activity (PA) were selected (n = 3724). PF was assessed by self-estimated overall physical fitness and running ability, a physician's estimation of a participant's working capacity, the trunk extensors' endurance and hand grip strength tests. The highest educational qualification taken by the participant was used as a measure of education. The analyses were adjusted for age, PA, BMI, smoking and chronic diseases.

RESULTS

PF was best in the high-educated men and women. The educational differences were minor in self-estimated overall PF. Adjusting for the covariates, the differences in self-estimated running ability and working capacity decreased. The educational differences in the trunk extensors' endurance test were independent of covariates. PA and other health behaviours contributed most to the differences.

CONCLUSION

People with high education had better PF irrespective of the method used to assess PF. A large amount of the educational differences could be explained by PA and other health behaviours. More research is needed to understand the determinants of educational differences in PF.

The validity of heart failure diagnoses obtained from administrative registers

BACKGROUND

Population-based administrative registers could be used for identifying heart failure (HF) cases. However, the validity of the classification obtained from administrative registers is not known.

DESIGN

The validity of HF diagnoses obtained by record linkage of administrative databases in Finland was assessed against classification by three independent physicians.

METHODS

Data from the nationwide registers in Finland - the Hospital Discharge Register, Causes of Death Register, Drug Reimbursement Register, and pharmacy prescription data - were linked with the FINRISK 1997 survey data. Cases with hospitalizations before the survey date with HF as one of the discharge diagnoses, cases with special reimbursement for HF drugs before the survey date and cases with the use of furosemide before the survey date were classified as HF in the registers. All these cases, cases with baseline brain natriuretic peptide > 100 pg/ml, and cases with use of digoxin were independently assessed by two physicians as HF/no HF. Discrepant cases were solved by a third physician. This classification was considered as the gold standard, against which the registers were assessed.

RESULTS

The specificity of the registers was 99.7% (95% CI 99.5-99.8%), positive predictive value 85.9% (95% CI 79.7-90.5%), negative predictive value 97.9% (95% CI 97.6-98.2%), and sensitivity 48.5% (95% CI 42.9-54.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Classification obtained from administrative registers has high specificity and can be used in follow-up studies with HF as an end point. Sensitivity is modest and administrative data should be used with caution for surveillance.

Changes in body mass index and measures of abdominal obesity in Finnish adults between 1992 and 2007, the National FINRISK Study

What is already known about this subject •  Recent obesity trends across the world in adults are mixed, varying from showing signs of levelling off to a continuously increasing prevalence. •  Secular trends in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference may vary by sex and age. •  Relying exclusively on BMI data may lead to underestimate the obesity epidemic. What this study adds •  Adverse trends in obesity indicators have continued in Finland in the 2000s. •  In older men, BMI remained quite stable and in older women BMI has decreased since 1997. •  Steep upward trends in abdominal obesity (waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio, WHtR) have taken place in both men and women and in all age groups, especially during the past 10 years. •  The impact of BMI adjustment on trends in abdominal obesity varied by age such that increases in BMI-adjusted waist circumference and WHtR were more prominent in older age groups.

SUMMARY

Signs that obesity trends will level off at the turn of the 21st century have been reported. In these studies, however, the definition of obesity has been based only on body mass index (BMI). We investigated obesity trends among Finnish adults over recent years by using BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio as indicators for obesity. Data were derived from the national FINRISK surveys, which are cross-sectional population surveys conducted at 5-year intervals between 1992 and 2007. Altogether, 20 551 randomly selected men and women aged 25-64 years participated in health examinations, where weight, height, and waist and hip circumferences were measured by trained nurses. Mean BMI increased in younger men and women (aged 25-44 years) between 1992 and 2007, whereas in older men, BMI remained quite stable and in older women BMI has decreased since 1997. Nevertheless, mean waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio increased in both men and women over the 15-year period. The upward trends took place in all age groups, especially during the past 10 years. Adverse trends in obesity indicators have continued in Finland in the 2000s. In particular, concerns are related to steep upward trends in abdominal obesity.

Socioeconomic indicators and the risk of acute coronary heart disease events: comparison of population-based data from the United States and Finland

PURPOSE

We wished to determine whether a gradient of association of low socioeconomic status with incidence of coronary heart disease was present in two population-based cohorts, one from United States and the other from Finland.

METHODS

Using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort and the Finnish FINRISK cohort, we estimated, with Cox proportional hazard regression models, incidence of sudden cardiac death (SCD), non-sudden cardiac death (NSCD), and non-fatal myocardial infarction (NFMI) for strata of income and education (follow-up: 1987-2001). In both cohorts, incidence rates of the three outcomes increased across all socioeconomic status exposure categories.

RESULTS

Low education was associated with increased hazard of NFMI in both cohorts and with increased risk of SCD among ARIC women. Low income was significantly associated with increased hazard of all three outcomes among ARIC women and with increased hazard of cardiac death among ARIC men. In FINRISK, low income was significantly associated with increased risk of SCD only. Risk of SCD in the low income categories was similar for both cohorts. Smoking, alcohol consumption, and race (ARIC only) did not appreciably alter effect estimates in either cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Indices of low SES show similar associations with increased risk of cardiac events in Finland and in United States.

Myocardial infarction events and cardiovascular risk factor levels in Finnish- and Swedish-speaking populations of Finland

BACKGROUND. The Swedish-speaking minority of Finland is unique, because it has a higher socioeconomic status (SES) and longer life expectancy than the Finnish-speaking majority. We hypothesized that this minority may have a lower attack rate of coronary events and analysed whether this could be explained by their higher SES. METHODS. The population-based myocardial infarction (MI) registers recorded 4,845 MI events in Turku during 1988-1998. Individual-level indicators of SES were obtained from Statistics Finland. The population-based FINRISK surveys recorded cardiovascular risk factors and native languages of 10,432 people in 1987, 1997, and 2002. RESULTS. The age-standardized attack rate of MI was lower among the 35-64-year-old Swedish-speaking men than among Finnish-speaking men (rate ratio 0.66; 95% confidence interval 0.47-0.85) and the difference remained significant after adjustment for SES. The Swedish-speaking inhabitants had higher age-, sex-, and SES-adjusted high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lower triglycerides, body mass index, and diastolic blood pressure. Conclusion. The Swedish-speaking inhabitants of Turku had lower MI morbidity and coronary mortality than the Finnish-speaking inhabitants. After controlling for SES, these differences remained significant among men, suggesting that other factors, such as differences in the risk factor profiles may also play a role.

The effect of chromosome 9p21 variants on cardiovascular disease may be modified by dietary intake: evidence from a case/control and a prospective study

BACKGROUND

One of the most robust genetic associations for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the Chromosome 9p21 region. However, the interaction of this locus with environmental factors has not been extensively explored. We investigated the association of 9p21 with myocardial infarction (MI) in individuals of different ethnicities, and tested for an interaction with environmental factors.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We genotyped four 9p21 SNPs in 8,114 individuals from the global INTERHEART study. All four variants were associated with MI, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.18 to 1.20 (1.85×10(-8)≤p≤5.21×10(-7)). A significant interaction (p = 4.0×10(-4)) was observed between rs2383206 and a factor-analysis-derived "prudent" diet pattern score, for which a major component was raw vegetables. An effect of 9p21 on MI was observed in the group with a low prudent diet score (OR = 1.32, p = 6.82×10(-7)), but the effect was diminished in a step-wise fashion in the medium (OR = 1.17, p = 4.9×10(-3)) and high prudent diet scoring groups (OR = 1.02, p = 0.68) (p = 0.014 for difference). We also analyzed data from 19,129 individuals (including 1,014 incident cases of CVD) from the prospective FINRISK study, which used a closely related dietary variable. In this analysis, the 9p21 risk allele demonstrated a larger effect on CVD risk in the groups with diets low or average for fresh vegetables, fruits, and berries (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.22, p = 3.0×10(-4), and HR = 1.35, p = 4.1×10(-3), respectively) compared to the group with high consumption of these foods (HR = 0.96, p = 0.73) (p = 0.0011 for difference). The combination of the least prudent diet and two copies of the risk allele was associated with a 2-fold increase in risk for MI (OR = 1.98, p = 2.11×10(-9)) in the INTERHEART study and a 1.66-fold increase in risk for CVD in the FINRISK study (HR = 1.66, p = 0.0026).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of MI and CVD conferred by Chromosome 9p21 SNPs appears to be modified by a prudent diet high in raw vegetables and fruits. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The early repolarization pattern in the general population: clinical correlates and heritability

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to describe the clinical correlates and heritability of the early repolarization pattern (ERP) in 2 large, population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND

There is growing recognition that ERP is associated with adverse outcomes.

METHODS

Participants of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) (N = 3,995) and the Health 2000 Survey (H2K) (N = 5,489) were included. ERP was defined as a J-point elevation ≥0.1 mV in ≥2 leads in either the inferior (II, III, aVF) or lateral (I, aVL, V(4-6)) territory or both. We tested the association between clinical characteristics and ERP, and estimated sibling recurrence risk.

RESULTS

ERP was present in 243 of 3,955 (6.1%) of FHS and 180 of 5,489 (3.3%) of H2K subjects. Male sex, younger age, lower systolic blood pressure, higher Sokolow-Lyon index, and lower Cornell voltage were independently associated with the presence of ERP. In the FHS sample, siblings of individuals with ERP had an ERP prevalence of 11.6% (recurrence risk ratio of 1.89). Siblings of individuals with ERP had an increased unadjusted odds of ERP (odds ratio: 2.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.01 to 4.85, p = 0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

ERP has strong association with clinical factors and has evidence for a heritable basis in the general population. Further assessment of the genetic determinants of ERP is warranted.

Body fat measured by a near-infrared interactance device as a predictor of cardiovascular events: the FINRISK'92 cohort

We evaluated how body fat percentage, measured by a portable near-infrared interactance (NIR) device predicts cardiovascular (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), and ischemic stroke events in a prospective population-based survey. The study population consisted of 2,842 men and 3,196 women, who participated in the FINRISK'92 survey. Obesity was assessed with BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and body fat percentage measured with an NIR. Mean length of follow-up was 9 years and 3 months. In Cox proportional hazards regression analyses for men, BMI, waist circumference, and WHR as well as body fat percentage were predictors of a CVD event when adjusted for age and for major risk factors. Hazard ratio (HR) per 1 s.d. was 1.27 (95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.48) for body fat percentage, 1.30 (1.16-1.46) for BMI, and 1.31 (1.16-1.50) for waist circumference. Among women, the body fat lost its predictive power in a fully adjusted model. Body fat percentage, BMI, waist circumference, and WHR were predictors of a CHD event both among men and women, whereas body fat percentage did not predict ischemic stroke among either gender. We observed that body fat percentage measured by an NIR device was a significant predictor of CVD and CHD events among men and women, but in our population-based survey, it did not provide any additional predictive power over and above the simpler measures, such as BMI or WHR.

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154 012 participants in 31 cohorts.† Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Changes in traditional risk factors no longer explain time trends in cardiovascular mortality and its socioeconomic differences

AIM

To investigate to what extent the changes in traditional risk factors (total cholesterol, smoking, hypertension) explain the changes in socioeconomic (defined by occupational class and household income) differences in cardiovascular mortality in Finland during the past 20 years.

DESIGN

Study population comprised 14,642 men and women aged 35-64 years who were selected from population-based FINRISK surveys in 1987, 1992, 1997 or 2002 in three areas of Finland. The 1982 and 1987 FINRISK cohorts were used to determine a model for the probability of cardiovascular death based on risk factor values at the baseline for each socioeconomic group. These predicted changes in cardiovascular mortality were then contrasted with observed mortality rates in different socioeconomic groups to determine the contribution of the changes in risk factors to changes in actual mortality.

RESULTS

We found that among men during 1987-97, when risk factor levels were improving in all socioeconomic groups, the model explained 29-44% of the observed mortality decline. The risk factors explained a larger part of the decline among lower socioeconomic groups. During the period 1997-2002 the risk factor levels stopped improving in all socioeconomic groups but observed mortality rates kept declining. The predicted mortality rates were 16-34% of the observed rates during the period 1987-2002.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in traditional risk factors no longer provide a good explanation of the changes in cardiovascular mortality and its socioeconomic differences. However, risk factors did explain the cardiovascular mortality decline among lower socioeconomic groups.

The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases

Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.

Fifteen-year changes in body mass index and waist circumference in Finnish adults

BACKGROUND

Obesity is an increasing health problem. Data on long-term obesity trends are most often based on the measurement of body mass index (BMI). Abdominal obesity, assessed by waist circumference may, however, be more closely related to health risks than overall obesity. The aim of this study was to investigate 15-year changes in general and abdominal obesity among adults in Finland, and furthermore, to assess whether obesity trends differ between educational groups.

DESIGN

Four cross-sectional population surveys conducted at 5-year intervals between 1987 and 2002.

METHODS

Altogether, 9025 men and 9950 women aged 25-64 years participated in these surveys. The weight, height, and waist circumferences of the participants were measured using a standardized protocol.

RESULTS

Mean waist circumference increased by 2.7 cm in men and 4.3 cm in women in 15 years. Whereas the distribution of BMI values did not change much, a remarkable shift towards higher waist circumference values was observed in 15 years. In both sexes, mean and high values of waist circumference increased in all educational groups. However, the values remained highest among the subjects with the lowest education.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that adverse changes in body shape have taken place from the late 1980s to the early 2000s. Given that one in five Finnish adults is defined as obese based on BMI, there is an even larger group of individuals at risk of obesity-related metabolic disorders because of abdominal obesity, particularly among low-educated individuals.

Modifiable risk factors have an impact on socio-economic differences in coronary heart disease events

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association of socio-economic status, defined by occupational class, income and education, with coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality, and further to analyse to which extent modifiable risk factors may explain socio-economic differences in CHD risk.

DESIGN

A population-based prospective cohort study including 9,061 men and 10,211 women aged 35-64 at baseline who participated in a cardiovascular risk factor survey in 1982, 1987, 1992 or 1997 in Finland. The subjects were followed for CHD events up till the end of 2001. Cox's proportional hazards model was used in the analysis.

RESULTS

Male manual workers had a double risk of CHD death compared with upper-level employees (HR=2.00, 95% CI 1.35-2.97). This excess risk was reduced by 31% when adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and most of this reduction was due to smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Modifiable risk factors explained about a third of the excess CHD mortality between manual workers and upper-level employees in men. Among women the differences between socio-economic groups were not statistically significant.

Non-participation and mortality in different socioeconomic groups: the FINRISK population surveys in 1972-92

BACKGROUND

Declining response rates pose a serious threat to the validity of estimates derived from epidemiological studies. If respondents and non-respondents differ systematically from each other, there can be a bias in the results of the study. A population-based cohort study was conducted to investigate disparities in socioeconomic structure between respondents and non-respondents and the contribution of these disparities to socioeconomic differences in total and cardiovascular mortality.

DESIGN

Data comprised 32,354 male and female participants and 4890 non-participants aged 35-74 years who belonged to the sample in one of the five FINRISK surveys in 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987 or 1992 in Finland. They were followed up for 9 years and 6 months.

RESULTS

It was found that the lower socioeconomic groups were over-represented among non-respondents both in men and women. When comparing the relative risk of death using the highest socioeconomic group of the participants as the reference group, it was found that although the socioeconomic gradient was similar for participants and non-participants-that is, lower groups had a higher risk of death-the risk was at a higher level among non-respondents.

CONCLUSIONS

Basing analysis on participants does not distort the relative risk of death associated with socioeconomic position. However, it does underestimate the absolute risk.

Plasma fibrinogen level and the risk of major cardiovascular diseases and nonvascular mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data.

DATA SOURCES

Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators.

STUDY SELECTION

All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded.

DATA EXTRACTION

Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.