Temperature at birth, coronary heart disease, and insulin resistance: cross sectional analyses of the British women's heart and health study

Random Forest and Feature Importance Measures for Discriminating the Most Influential Environmental Factors in Predicting Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases

BACKGROUND

Several studies suggest that environmental and climatic factors are linked to the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases; however, it is still unclear which are the most influential ones. This study sheds light on the potentiality of a data-driven statistical approach by providing a case study analysis.

METHODS

Daily admissions to the emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are jointly analyzed with daily environmental and climatic parameter values (temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, carbon monoxide, ozone, particulate matter, and nitrogen dioxide). The Random Forest (RF) model and feature importance measure (FMI) techniques (permutation feature importance (PFI), Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature importance, and the derivative-based importance measure (κALE)) are applied for discriminating the role of each environmental and climatic parameter. Data are pre-processed to remove trend and seasonal behavior using the Seasonal Trend Decomposition (STL) method and preliminary analyzed to avoid redundancy of information.

RESULTS

The RF performance is encouraging, being able to predict cardiovascular and respiratory disease admissions with a mean absolute relative error of 0.04 and 0.05 cases per day, respectively. Feature importance measures discriminate parameter behaviors providing importance rankings. Indeed, only three parameters (temperature, atmospheric pressure, and carbon monoxide) were responsible for most of the total prediction accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Data-driven and statistical tools, like the feature importance measure, are promising for discriminating the role of environmental and climatic factors in predicting the risk related to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Our results reveal the potential of employing these tools in public health policy applications for the development of early warning systems that address health risks associated with climate change, and improving disease prevention strategies.

Impacts of heat exposure in utero on long-term health and social outcomes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Climate change, particularly global warming, is amongst the greatest threats to human health. While short-term effects of heat exposure in pregnancy, such as preterm birth, are well documented, long-term effects have received less attention. This review aims to systematically assess evidence on the long-term impacts on the foetus of heat exposure in utero.

METHODS

A search was conducted in August 2019 and updated in April 2023 in MEDLINE(PubMed). We included studies on the relationship of environmental heat exposure during pregnancy and any long-term outcomes. Risk of bias was assessed using tools developed by the Joanna-Briggs Institute, and the evidence was appraised using the GRADE approach. Synthesis without Meta-Analysis (SWiM) guidelines were used.

RESULTS

Eighteen thousand six hundred twenty one records were screened, with 29 studies included across six outcome groups. Studies were mostly conducted in high-income countries (n = 16/25), in cooler climates. All studies were observational, with 17 cohort, 5 case-control and 8 cross-sectional studies. The timeline of the data is from 1913 to 2019, and individuals ranged in age from neonates to adults, and the elderly. Increasing heat exposure during pregnancy was associated with decreased earnings and lower educational attainment (n = 4/6), as well as worsened cardiovascular (n = 3/6), respiratory (n = 3/3), psychiatric (n = 7/12) and anthropometric (n = 2/2) outcomes, possibly culminating in increased overall mortality (n = 2/3). The effect on female infants was greater than on males in 8 of 9 studies differentiating by sex. The quality of evidence was low in respiratory and longevity outcome groups to very low in all others.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing heat exposure was associated with a multitude of detrimental outcomes across diverse body systems. The biological pathways involved are yet to be elucidated, but could include epigenetic and developmental perturbations, through interactions with the placenta and inflammation. This highlights the need for further research into the long-term effects of heat exposure, biological pathways, and possible adaptation strategies in studies, particularly in neglected regions. Heat exposure in-utero has the potential to compound existing health and social inequalities. Poor study design of the included studies constrains the conclusions of this review, with heterogenous exposure measures and outcomes rendering comparisons across contexts/studies difficult.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD 42019140136.

Analyzing the Interactions between Environmental Parameters and Cardiovascular Diseases Using Random Forest and SHAP Algorithms

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) remain the predominant global cause of mortality, with both low and high temperatures increasing CVD-related mortalities. Climate change impacts human health directly through temperature fluctuations and indirectly via factors like disease vectors. Elevated and reduced temperatures have been linked to increases in CVD-related hospitalizations and mortality, with various studies worldwide confirming the significant health implications of temperature variations and air pollution on cardiovascular outcomes.

Methods

A database of daily Emergency Room admissions at the Giovanni XIII Polyclinic in Bari (Southern Italy) was developed, spanning from 2013 to 2019, including weather and air quality data. A Random Forest (RF) supervised machine learning model was used to simulate the trend of hospital admissions for CVD. The Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) decomposition model separated the trend component, while cross-validation techniques were employed to prevent overfitting. Model performance was assessed using specific metrics and error analysis. Additionally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, a feature importance technique within the eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) framework, was used to identify the feature importance.

Results

An R 2 of 0.97 and a Mean Absolute Error of 0.36 admissions were achieved by the model. Atmospheric pressure, minimum temperature, and carbon monoxide were found to collectively contribute about 74% to the model's predictive power, with atmospheric pressure being the dominant factor at 37%.

Conclusions

This research underscores the significant influence of weather-climate variables on cardiovascular diseases. The identified key climate factors provide a practical framework for policymakers and healthcare professionals to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on CVD and devise preventive strategies.

Characterizing light-dark cycles in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit: a retrospective observational study

Objectives: To characterize bedside 24-h patterns in light exposure in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) and to explore the environmental and individual patient characteristics that influence these patterns in this clinical setting. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included 79 very preterm infants who stayed in an incubator with a built-in light sensor. Bedside light exposure was measured continuously (one value per minute). Based on these data, various metrics (including relative amplitude, intradaily variability, and interdaily stability) were calculated to characterize the 24-h patterns of light exposure. Next, we determined the association between these metrics and various environmental and individual patient characteristics. Results: A 24-h light-dark cycle was apparent in the NICU with significant differences in light exposure between the three nurse shifts (p < 0.001), with the highest values in the morning and the lowest values at night. Light exposure was generally low, with illuminances rarely surpassing 75 lux, and highly variable between patients and across days within a single patient. Furthermore, the season of birth and phototherapy had a significant effect on 24-h light-dark cycles, whereas no effect of bed location and illness severity were observed. Conclusion: Even without an official lighting regime set, a 24-h light-dark cycle was observed in the NICU. Various rhythmicity metrics can be used to characterize 24-h light-dark cycles in a clinical setting and to study the relationship between light patterns and health outcomes.

Season of Birth and Cardiovascular Mortality in Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background: The fetal origins hypothesis have associated early life exposures with the development of adverse health outcomes in adulthood. Season of birth has been shown to be associated with overall and cardiovascular mortality. Methods: We performed a retrospective database study to explore the association between season of birth and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation. Results: A total of 8962 patients with AF were identified in the database with 1253 deaths recorded. AF patients born in spring and summer had a higher mortality rate when compared to those born in autumn and winter (hazard ratio (HR) 1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.26, p = 0.03). This effect was consistent in the male subgroup (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.03–1.51, p = 0.02 for males born in spring; HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.03–1.51, p = 0.03 for males born in summer when compared to winter as the reference) but not in females (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.79–1.31, p = 0.88 for females born in spring; HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.87–1.42, p = 0.39 for females born in summer when compared to winter as the reference). Results persisted after adjustment for baseline characteristics and clinical risk profile. A similar pattern was observed with cardiovascular mortality. Conclusion: Birth in spring or summer is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality in male AF patients, but not in females. This could be related to the underlying differences in rates of major adverse clinical events between genders. Further studies should aim at clarifying the mechanisms behind this association, which may help us understand the higher level of risk in female patients with AF.

Season-of-birth phenomenon in health and longevity: epidemiologic evidence and mechanistic considerations

In many human populations, especially those living in regions with pronounced climatic differences between seasons, the most sensitive (prenatal and neonatal) developmental stages occur in contrasting conditions depending on the season of conception. The difference in prenatal and postnatal environments may be a factor significantly affecting human development and risk for later life chronic diseases. Factors potentially contributing to this kind of developmental programming include nutrition, outdoor temperature, infectious exposures, duration of sunlight, vitamin D synthesis, etc. Month of birth is commonly used as a proxy for exposures which vary seasonally around the perinatal period. Season-of-birth patterns have been identified for many chronic health outcomes. In this review, the research evidence for the seasonality of birth in adult-life disorders is provided and potential mechanisms underlying the phenomenon of early life seasonal programming of chronic disease and longevity are discussed.

Birth month, birth season, and overall and cardiovascular disease mortality in US women: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the associations between birth month, birth season, and overall and cardiovascular disease mortality, and to examine the role of familial and socioeconomic factors in these associations.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Nurses' Health Study, established in 1976, an ongoing prospective cohort study in the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Female registered nurses who reported information on date of birth at study enrolment (n=116 911, 1976-2014, followed for 38 years).

EXPOSURE

Birth month and astronomical birth season (based on solstices and equinoxes as boundaries of the season categories).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Age and various multivariable adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between birth months (using November as the reference), astronomical birth season (using autumn as the reference), and overall and cardiovascular disease specific mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Among study participants, 43 248 overall deaths were documented during 4 136 364 person years of follow-up since enrolment, including 8360 cardiovascular disease related deaths. In fully adjusted multivariable analyses, no significant association was observed between birth month, birth season, and overall mortality. Compared with women born in November, increased cardiovascular disease mortality was observed among those born from March to July (hazard ratio for March, 1.09, 95% confidence interval 0.98 to 1.21; April, 1.12, 1.00 to 1.24; May, 1.08, 0.98 to 1.20; June, 1.07, 0.96 to 1.19; and July 1.08, 0.98 to 1.20). Those born in April had the highest cardiovascular disease mortality, and those born in December had the lowest (December, 0.95, 0.85 to 1.06). The relative difference between the lowest and highest risk month was 17.89%. Women born in spring (1.10, 1.04 to 1.17) and summer (1.09, 1.03 to 1.16) had a higher cardiovascular disease mortality than women born in the autumn. Adjustment for familial and socioeconomic factors did not change these results. The relative difference between the lowest and highest risk season was 10.00%.

CONCLUSION

Participants born in the spring and summer (especially those born in March-July) had a slight but significant increase in cardiovascular disease specific mortality. However, no seasonal birth month effect was observed among women for overall mortality. Familial and socioeconomic factors did not appear to alter these associations. Further studies are required to confirm these findings and reveal mechanisms of these seasonal birth month effects in cardiovascular disease mortality.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Southern China using the Empirical Mode Decomposition method

Until now, few studies have analyzed the effects of temperature on cardiovascular disease (CVD) death at different time points. In this study, we chose 9 different cities in the subtropical and tropical areas of China and analyzed the correlation between temperature at different time points and CVD mortality. We completed this study in two steps. First, we analyzed different time trend decomposition data related to CVD mortality in different populations within the 9 selected cities using empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Second, we created a regression fitting analysis of CVD mortality and temperatures at different time periods. The results showed that the CVD mortality of subtropical and tropical areas in southern Chinese cities represented spatial heterogeneity. The CVD mortality rates in Beihai, Hefei and Nanning showed rising trends, whereas the CVD mortality rates in Haikou, Guilin and Changde appeared to be decreasing. At the daily, seasonal and year time scales, low temperatures were negatively correlated with CVD mortality. Other than at the daily time scale, high temperatures did not significantly influence CVD mortality. This article will help to develop appropriate measures to reduce temperature-related mortality risk in different populations within the subtropical and tropical regions of China.

Early-Life Nutritional Programming of Type 2 Diabetes: Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Evidence

Consistent evidence from both experimental and human studies suggest that inadequate nutrition in early life can contribute to risk of developing metabolic disorders including type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adult life. In human populations, most findings supporting a causative relationship between early-life malnutrition and subsequent risk of T2D were obtained from quasi-experimental studies (‘natural experiments’). Prenatal and/or early postnatal exposures to famine were demonstrated to be associated with higher risk of T2D in many cohorts around the world. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of epigenetic regulation of gene expression as a possible major contributor to the link between the early-life famine exposure and T2D in adulthood. Findings from these studies suggest that prenatal exposure to the famine may result in induction of persistent epigenetic changes that have adaptive significance in postnatal development but can predispose to metabolic disorders including T2D at the late stages of life. In this review, quasi-experimental data on the developmental programming of T2D are summarized and recent research findings on changes in DNA methylation that mediate these effects are discussed.

Seasonal BMI differences between restrictive and purging anorexia nervosa subtypes

OBJECTIVE

Seasonal differences in anorexia nervosa is an area of research which has received scarce attention in the literature. The aim of this study was to explore patterns of seasonal variation in body weight in anorexia nervosa patients admitted to an eating disorders unit from January 2007 to December 2011.

METHOD

Anorexia nervosa restrictive (ANR) and binge eating/purging (ANBP) subtypes were compared with respect to BMI on admission during the Warm and Cold Semester, and in terms of lenght of hospital stay.

RESULTS

The main result was that BMI differences between ANBP and ANR patients were due to bodyweight differences during the colder months of the year (p < 0.01) whereas no difference in bodyweight on admission was observed between both subtypes during the Warm Semester months. Furthermore, ANR patients' bodyweight was lower when admitted during the Cold compared to the Warm Semester (p < 0.05). Length of stay was significantly associated with reduced BMI in ANR patients (p < 0.01), but not so for ANBP patients.

DISCUSSION

To our knowledge, this is the first study in the literature providing data on seasonal variations in the BMI on admission of anorexia nervosa patients, and in the length of hospitalization.

Early-life nutritional programming of longevity

Available data from both experimental and epidemiological studies suggest that inadequate diet in early life can permanently change the structure and function of specific organs or homoeostatic pathways, thereby ‘programming’ the individual’s health status and longevity. Sufficient evidence has accumulated showing significant impact of epigenetic regulation mechanisms in nutritional programming phenomenon. The essential role of early-life diet in the development of aging-related chronic diseases is well established and described in many scientific publications. However, the programming effects on lifespan have not been extensively reviewed systematically. The aim of the review is to provide a summary of research findings and theoretical explanations that indicate that longevity can be influenced by early nutrition.

The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Ambient temperature during gestation and cold-related adult mortality in a Swedish cohort, 1915-2002

For all climatic regions, mortality due to cold exceeds mortality due to heat. A separate line of research indicates that season of birth predicts lifespan after age 50. This and other literature implies the hypothesis that ambient temperature during gestation may influence cold-related adult mortality. We use data on over 13,500 Swedes from the Uppsala Birth Cohort Study to test whether cold-related mortality in adulthood varies positively with unusually benign ambient temperature during gestation. We linked daily thermometer temperatures in Uppsala, Sweden (1915-2002) to subjects beginning at their estimated date of conception and ending at death or the end of follow-up. We specified a Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates to analyze the two leading causes of cold-related death in adulthood: ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. Over 540,450 person-years, 1313 IHD and 406 stroke deaths occurred. For a one standard deviation increase in our measure of warm temperatures during gestation, we observe an increased hazard ratio of 1.16 for cold-related IHD death (95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.29). We, however, observe no relation for cold-related stroke mortality. Additional analyses show that birthweight percentile and/or gestational age do not mediate discovered findings. The IHD results indicate that ambient temperature during gestation--independent of birth month--modifies the relation between cold and adult mortality. We encourage longitudinal studies of the adult sequelae of ambient temperature during gestation among populations not sufficiently sheltered from heat or cold waves.

Is air temperature at birth associated with body mass index in 9-10 year-old children?

Several studies suggest that temperature (season) at birth affects body weight and obesity years later. This study related air temperature at birth to body mass index in Liverpool primary school children (n = 11,084). No association was found between body mass index categories and month or season of birth and only weak correlations with month of birth and air temperature at birth. These correlations disappeared when controlled for precise age and an index of deprivation but girls in the third quintile for deprivation had a higher body mass index if born in colder weather.

Season of birth and exceptional longevity: comparative study of american centenarians, their siblings, and spouses

This study explores the effects of month of birth (a proxy for early-life environmental influences) on the chances of survival to age 100. Months of birth for 1,574 validated centenarians born in the United States in 1880-1895 were compared to the same information obtained for centenarians' 10,885 shorter-lived siblings and 1,083 spouses. Comparison was conducted using a within-family analysis by the method of conditional logistic regression, which allows researchers to control for unobserved shared childhood or adulthood environment and common genetic background. It was found that months of birth have significant long-lasting effect on survival to age 100: siblings born in September-November have higher odds to become centenarians compared to siblings born in March. A similar month-of-birth pattern was found for centenarian spouses. These results support the idea of early-life programming of human aging and longevity.

Influence of photoperiod on hormones, behavior, and immune function

Photoperiodism is the ability of plants and animals to measure environmental day length to ascertain time of year. Central to the evolution of photoperiodism in animals is the adaptive distribution of energetically challenging activities across the year to optimize reproductive fitness while balancing the energetic tradeoffs necessary for seasonally-appropriate survival strategies. The ability to accurately predict future events requires endogenous mechanisms to permit physiological anticipation of annual conditions. Day length provides a virtually noise free environmental signal to monitor and accurately predict time of the year. In mammals, melatonin provides the hormonal signal transducing day length. Duration of pineal melatonin is inversely related to day length and its secretion drives enduring changes in many physiological systems, including the HPA, HPG, and brain-gut axes, the autonomic nervous system, and the immune system. Thus, melatonin is the fulcrum mediating redistribution of energetic investment among physiological processes to maximize fitness and survival.

Month of birth, a risk factor for violent behaviour in suicidal patients admitted in emergency?

Although there are numerous publications on the existing link between month of birth and suicide, only two studies focus on suicide attempts and auto-aggressive behavior. Research data suggest that month of birth is related to a variation of 5-HIAA in the cerebrospinal fluid, which correlates with violent behavior (VB). Therefore, the aim of this study is to search, for the first time, for a possible link between month of birth and the occurrence of VB in emergency, for patients admitted for a suicide attempt with medication. This is a 10 months prospective study among all the patients of the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, admitted in emergency for a suicide attempt with medication. During a 10 months study period we included 493 patients, of which 77 (15.62%) presented VB. Higher incidence of VB was found in subjects where born at the end of winter and the beginning of spring, with a maximum for April and a minimum for December. In spite of a relatively small number of subjects, it seems promising to study the occurrence of VB as a function of month of birth in patients admitted in emergency for a suicide attempt.

[The effects of season at time of birth on asthma and pneumonia in childhood and adulthood in a birth cohort in southern Brazil]

This study evaluated the effects of seasonal weather at time of birth and ambient temperature during the first six months of life on hospitalizations due to asthma and pneumonia in preschool children and on diagnosis of asthma in adulthood among individuals from the 1982 birth cohort in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The cohort included 5,914 live births, of which 77% were followed up until adulthood (23-24 yr). The risk of hospitalization due to pneumonia and asthma among children born from April to June (autumn) was 1.31 (95%CI: 0.99-1.73) to 2.4 (95%CI: 1.11-4.99) times higher than that of children born from January to March (summer). For temperature in the first six months of life, risk of hospitalization was 1.64 (95%CI: 1.26-2.13) to 3.16 (95%CI: 1.63-6.12) times higher for children born in the coldest as compared to the hottest temperature tertile. The effects of seasonality decreased with age, and the association with asthma in adulthood was weak. Hospitalizations in poor children were more frequent, but the effects of seasonality on pneumonia were more evident among the wealthiest.

Developmental origins of obesity: a sympathoadrenal perspective

Environmental exposures at crucial points in development permanently alter sympathoadrenal function in mammals. Both the sympathetic innervation of peripheral tissues and the responsiveness of sympathetic nerves and adrenal medulla to standard stimuli are susceptible to modification by exposures in early life. Several conditions studied in the laboratory, including environmental temperature, litter size and maternal nutrition, in addition to affecting sympathoadrenal function also produce larger, fatter offspring, raising the possibility that developmental programming of the sympathetic nervous system (SNS) may contribute to acquisition of an obese phenotype. The specific changes noted in all three circumstances include evidence of an increase in sympathetic innervation in pancreas and retroperitoneal fat. By contrast, SNS development is impaired in experimental models of intrauterine growth retardation. Although the physiological implications of increased sympathetic innervation in pancreas and retroperitoneal fat are not fully understood, these changes seen in animals reared at cool temperatures, in small litters or by mothers fed refined carbohydrate diets likely reflect an early enhancement of the offspring's capacity to take up and store glucose. If so, the tendency of these animals to gain weight and accumulate fat may represent an adaptive response to 'over-nutrition' in early life.

Effect of month of birth on the risk of suicide

BACKGROUND

Month of birth as a suicide risk factor has not been adequately explored. The findings of published studies are contradictory and inconclusive.

AIMS

To examine the association between suicide and month of birth using suicide data for a 22-year period in England and Wales. The sample size of 26 915 suicides greatly exceeds all previous studies.

METHOD

We analysed all suicides (ICD-9 codes E950-959) and deaths from undetermined injury (E980-989) reported between 1979 and 2001 in England and Wales for persons born between 1955 and 1966, using Poisson and negative binomial generalised linear models with seasonal components.

RESULTS

Birth rates of people who later kill themselves show disproportionate excess for April, May and June compared with the other months. Overall, we found an increase of 17% in the risk of suicide for people born in the peak month (spring-early summer) compared with those born in the trough month (autumn-early winter); this risk increase was larger for women (29.6%) than for men (13.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

The'month of birth'factor in suicide can be interpreted in terms of the foetal origins hypothesis. Our findings might have implications for our understanding of the multifaceted aetiology of suicide and may eventually offer new strategies for research and prevention.

Adult blood pressure and climate conditions in infancy: a test of the hypothesis that dehydration in infancy is associated with higher adult blood pressure

The authors hypothesized that individuals born in the early 20th century who experienced the hottest and driest summers during infancy would be more likely to have suffered severe infant diarrhea and dehydration, and consequently have had higher blood pressure in adulthood, than those who experienced cooler and wetter summers. In this context, these climate data act as an instrumental variable for the association of early-life dehydration with later blood pressure. For 3,964 randomly selected British women born between 1919 and 1940 and whose blood pressure was measured at age 60-79 years, a one standard deviation (1.3 degrees C) higher mean summer temperature in the first year of life was associated with a 1.12-mmHg (95% confidence interval: 0.33, 1.91) higher adult systolic blood pressure, and a one standard deviation higher mean summer rainfall (33.9 mm) was associated with lower systolic blood pressure (-1.65 mmHg, 95% confidence interval: -2.44, -0.85). Equivalent results for diastolic blood pressure were 0.11 (95% confidence interval: -0.65, 0.86) and -0.32 (95% confidence interval: -0.71, 0.05). The climate variables were not associated with potential confounding factors such as socioeconomic position or lifestyle risk factors. These findings provide some evidence in favor of the hypothesis that dehydration in infancy is associated with higher adult blood pressure.

The association of ambient outdoor temperature throughout pregnancy and offspring birthweight: findings from theAberdeen Children of the 1950scohort

BACKGROUND

We assessed the effect of mean ambient outdoor temperature during gestation on birthweight.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of mean ambient outdoor temperature during gestation on birth weight.

DESIGN

Birth cohort study with record linkage to climate databases.

SETTING

Aberdeen, Scotland.

SAMPLE

A total of 12,150 individuals born in Aberdeen, Scotland between 1950 and 1956.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Perinatal data from a cohort of 12,150 individuals born in Aberdeen, Scotland between 1950 and 1956 were linked to daily outdoor temperature data. Birthweight was seasonally patterned, with lowest birthweights among those born in the winter months (December-February) and highest birthweights among those born in the autumn months (September-November); P= 0.01 for joint sine-cosine functions. Mean ambient outdoor temperature during the first trimester of pregnancy was inversely associated with birthweight and mean ambient outdoor temperature during the third trimester of pregnancy was positively associated with birthweight. In fully adjusted (for sex, maternal age, birth year, birth order and social class) models a 1 degrees C increase in mean ambient outdoor temperature in the mid 10-day period of the first trimester was associated with a 5.4-g (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.9, 7.9 g) decrease in birthweight, whereas a 1 degrees C increase in the mid 10-day period of the third trimester was associated with a 1.3-g (95% CI 0.50, 2.1 g) increase in birthweight. Ambient outdoor temperature in the first trimester of pregnancy explained the seasonal patterning of birthweight.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Birthweight.

RESULTS

Birthweight was seasonally patterned, with lowest birthweights among those born in the winter months (December-February) and highest birthweights among those born in the autumn months (September-November); P= 0.01 for joint sine-cosine functions. Mean ambient outdoor temperature during the first trimester of pregnancy was inversely associated with birthweight and mean ambient outdoor temperature during the third trimester of pregnancy was positively associated with birthweight. In fully adjusted (for sex, maternal age, birth year, birth order and social class) models a 1 degrees C increase in mean ambient outdoor temperature in the mid 10-day period of the first trimester was associated with a 5.4 g (95% confidence interval 2.9, 7.9 g) decrease in birthweight, whereas a 1 degrees C increase in the mid 10-day period of the third trimester was associated with a 1.3 g (95% confidence interval 0.50, 2.1 g) increase in birthweight. Ambient outdoor temperature in the first trimester of pregnancy explained the seasonal patterning of birthweight.

CONCLUSION

Higher ambient outdoor temperature in the first trimester of pregnancy and/or lower ambient outdoor temperature in the third trimester are associated with reduced offspring birthweight. With the increasing occurrence of temperature extremes, in particular, heat waves, these findings, if replicated in other studies, have important public health implications.

Effect of a high or low ambient perinatal temperature on adult obesity in Osborne-Mendel and S5B/Pl rats

Perinatal environment is an important determinant of health status of adults. We tested the hypothesis that perinatal ambient temperature alters sympathetic activity and affects body composition in adult life and that this effect differs between S5B/Pl (S5B) and Osborne-Mendel (OM) strains of rat that were resistant (S5B) or susceptible (OM) to dietary obesity. From 1 wk before birth, rat litters were raised at either 18 or 30 degrees C until 2 mo of age while consuming a chow diet. Rats were then housed at normal housing temperature (22 degrees C) and provided either high-fat or low-fat diet. OM rats initially reared at 18 degrees C gained more weight on both diets than those reared at 30 degrees C. Perinatal temperature had no effect on body weight gain of the S5B rats on either diet. At 12 wk of age, OM and S5B rats reared at 18 degrees C had higher intakes of the high-fat diet than those reared at 30 degrees C but lower beta3-adrenergic receptor (beta3-AR) and uncoupling protein-1 (UCP1) mRNA levels in brown adipose tissue (BAT). The increase in metabolic rate in response to the beta3-agonist CL-316243, was greater in both OM and S5B rats reared at 18 degrees C than in those reared at 30 degrees C. Perinatal temperature differentially affects body weight in OM and S5B rats while having similar effects on food intake, response to a beta3-agonist, and BAT beta3-AR and UCP-1. The data suggest that OM rats are more susceptible to epigenetic programming than S5B rats.

Living with the past: evolution, development, and patterns of disease

Epidemiological observations have led to the hypothesis that the risk of developing some chronic noncommunicable diseases in adulthood is influenced not only by genetic and adult life-style factors but also by environmental factors acting in early life. Research in evolutionary biology, developmental biology, and animal and human physiology provides support for this idea and suggests that environmental processes influencing the propensity to disease in adulthood operate during the periconceptual, fetal, and infant phases of life. This "developmental origins of health and disease" concept may have important biological, medical, and socioeconomic implications.