Comprehensive epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer risk prediction model incorporating genetic and epidemiological risk factors

Validation of the BOADICEA model for epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer risk prediction in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

The clinical validity of the multifactorial BOADICEA model for epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) risk prediction has not been assessed in a large sample size or over a longer term.

METHODS

We evaluated the model discrimination and calibration in the UK Biobank cohort comprising 199,429 women (733 incident EOCs) of European ancestry without previous cancer history. We predicted 10-year EOC risk incorporating data on questionnaire-based risk factors (QRFs), family history, a 36-SNP polygenic risk score and pathogenic variants (PV) in six EOC susceptibility genes (BRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51D, BRIP1 and PALB2).

RESULTS

Discriminative ability was maximised under the multifactorial model that included all risk factors (AUC = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.66-0.70). This model was well calibrated in deciles of predicted risk with calibration slope=0.99 (95% CI: 0.98-1.01). Discriminative ability was similar in women younger or older than 60 years. The AUC was higher when analyses were restricted to PV carriers (0.76, 95% CI: 0.69-0.82). Using relative risk (RR) thresholds, the full model classified 97.7%, 1.7%, 0.4% and 0.2% women in the RR < 2.0, 2.0 ≤ RR < 2.9, 2.9 ≤ RR < 6.0 and RR ≥ 6.0 categories, respectively, identifying 9.1 of incident EOC among those with RR ≥ 2.0.

DISCUSSION

BOADICEA, implemented in CanRisk ( www.canrisk.org ), provides valid 10-year EOC risks and can facilitate clinical decision-making in EOC risk management.

A review of disease risk prediction methods and applications in the omics era

Risk prediction and disease prevention are the innovative care challenges of the 21st century. Apart from freeing the individual from the pain of disease, it will lead to low medical costs for society. Until very recently, risk assessments have ushered in a new era with the emergence of omics technologies, including genomics, transcriptomics, epigenomics, proteomics, and so on, which potentially advance the ability of biomarkers to aid prediction models. While risk prediction has achieved great success, there are still some challenges and limitations. We reviewed the general process of omics-based disease risk model construction and the applications in four typical diseases. Meanwhile, we highlighted the problems in current studies and explored the potential opportunities and challenges for future clinical practice.

BOADICEA model: updates to the BRCA2 breast cancer risks for ages 60 years and older

Breast cancer risks in older BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers are understudied. Recent studies show a marked decline in the relative risk at older ages. We used data from two large studies to update the breast cancer risks in the BOADICEA model for BRCA2 carriers 60 years and older.

Estimating sojourn time and sensitivity of screening for ovarian cancer using a Bayesian framework

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer is among the leading causes of gynecologic cancer-related death. Past ovarian cancer screening trials using combination of cancer antigen 125 testing and transvaginal ultrasound failed to yield statistically significant mortality reduction. Estimates of ovarian cancer sojourn time-that is, the period from when the cancer is first screen detectable until clinical detection-may inform future screening programs.

METHODS

We modeled ovarian cancer progression as a continuous time Markov chain and estimated screening modality-specific sojourn time and sensitivity using a Bayesian approach. Model inputs were derived from the screening arms (multimodal and ultrasound) of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian cancer screening trials. We assessed the quality of our estimates by using the posterior predictive P value. We derived histology-specific sojourn times by adjusting the overall sojourn time based on the corresponding histology-specific survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.

RESULTS

The overall ovarian cancer sojourn time was 2.1 years (posterior predictive P value = .469) in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies, with 65.7% screening sensitivity. The sojourn time was 2.0 years (posterior predictive P value = .532) in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening's multimodal screening arm and 2.4 years (posterior predictive P value = .640) in the ultrasound screening arm, with sensitivities of 93.2% and 64.5%, respectively. Stage-specific screening sensitivities in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies were 39.1% and 82.9% for early-stage and advanced-stage disease, respectively. The histology-specific sojourn times ranged from 0.8 to 1.8 years for type II ovarian cancer and 2.9 to 6.6 years for type I ovarian cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual screening is not effective for all ovarian cancer subtypes. Screening sensitivity for early-stage ovarian cancers is not sufficient for substantial mortality reduction.

Interplay of polygenic liability with birth-related, somatic, and psychosocial factors in anorexia nervosa risk: a nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Although several types of risk factors for anorexia nervosa (AN) have been identified, including birth-related factors, somatic, and psychosocial risk factors, their interplay with genetic susceptibility remains unclear. Genetic and epidemiological interplay in AN risk were examined using data from Danish nationwide registers. AN polygenic risk score (PRS) and risk factor associations, confounding from AN PRS and/or parental psychiatric history on the association between the risk factors and AN risk, and interactions between AN PRS and each level of target risk factor on AN risk were estimated.

METHODS

Participants were individuals born in Denmark between 1981 and 2008 including nationwide-representative data from the iPSYCH2015, and Danish AN cases from the Anorexia Nervosa Genetics Initiative and Eating Disorder Genetics Initiative cohorts. A total of 7003 individuals with AN and 45 229 individuals without a registered AN diagnosis were included. We included 22 AN risk factors from Danish registers.

RESULTS

Risk factors showing association with PRS for AN included urbanicity, parental ages, genitourinary tract infection, and parental socioeconomic factors. Risk factors showed the expected association to AN risk, and this association was only slightly attenuated when adjusted for parental history of psychiatric disorders or/and for the AN PRS. The interaction analyses revealed a differential effect of AN PRS according to the level of the following risk factors: sex, maternal age, genitourinary tract infection, C-section, parental socioeconomic factors and psychiatric history.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide evidence for interactions between AN PRS and certain risk-factors, illustrating potential diverse risk pathways to AN diagnosis.

The Associations and Causal Relationships of Ovarian Cancer - Construction of a Prediction Model

Purpose

To explore the risk and protective factors for developing ovarian cancer and construct a risk prediction model.

Methods

Information related to patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer on the electronic medical record data platform of three tertiary hospitals in Guangdong Province from May 2018 to September 2023 was collected as the case group. Patients with non-ovarian cancer who attended the clinic during the same period were included in the control group. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent variables and explore the factors associated with the development of ovarian cancer. An ovarian cancer risk prediction model was constructed using a decision tree C4.5 algorithm. The ROC and calibration curves were plotted, and the model was validated.

Results

Logistic regression analysis identified independent risk and protective factors for ovarian cancer. The sample size was divided into training and test sets in a ratio of 7:3 for model construction and validation. The AUC of the training and test sets of the decision tree model were 0.961 (95% CI:0.944-0.978) and 0.902 (95% CI:0.840-0.964), respectively, and the optimal cut-off values and their coordinates were 0.532 (0.091, 0.957), and 0.474 (0.159, 0.842) respectively. The accuracies of the training and test sets were 93.3% and 84.2%, respectively, and their sensitivities were 95.7% and 84.2%, respectively.

Conclusion

The constructed ovarian cancer risk prediction model has good predictive ability, which is conducive to improving the efficiency of early warning of ovarian cancer in high-risk groups.

Screening and prevention of ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer remains the most lethal gynaecological malignancy with 314 000 cases and 207 000 deaths annually worldwide. Ovarian cancer cases and deaths are predicted to increase in Australia by 42% and 55% respectively by 2040. Earlier detection and significant downstaging of ovarian cancer have been demonstrated with multimodal screening in the largest randomised controlled trial of ovarian cancer screening in women at average population risk. However, none of the randomised trials have demonstrated a mortality benefit. Therefore, ovarian cancer screening is not currently recommended in women at average population risk. More frequent surveillance for ovarian cancer every three to four months in women at high risk has shown good performance characteristics and significant downstaging, but there is no available information on a survival benefit. Population testing offers an emerging novel strategy to identify women at high risk who can benefit from ovarian cancer prevention. Novel multicancer early detection biomarker, longitudinal multiple marker strategies, and new biomarkers are being investigated and evaluated for ovarian cancer screening. Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) decreases ovarian cancer incidence and mortality and is recommended for women at over a 4-5% lifetime risk of ovarian cancer. Pre-menopausal women without contraindications to hormone replacement therapy (HRT) undergoing RRSO should be offered HRT until 51 years of age to minimise the detrimental consequences of premature menopause. Currently risk-reducing early salpingectomy and delayed oophorectomy (RRESDO) should only be offered to women at increased risk of ovarian cancer within the context of a research trial. Pre-menopausal early salpingectomy is associated with fewer menopausal symptoms and better sexual function than bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy. A Sectioning and Extensively Examining the Fimbria (SEE-FIM) protocol should be used for histopathological assessment in women at high risk of ovarian cancer who are undergoing surgical prevention. Opportunistic salpingectomy may be offered at routine gynaecological surgery to all women who have completed their family. Long term prospective opportunistic salpingectomy studies are needed to determine the effect size of ovarian cancer risk reduction and the impact on menopause.

Large-scale genome-wide association study of 398,238 women unveils seven novel loci associated with high-grade serous epithelial ovarian cancer risk

Background

Nineteen genomic regions have been associated with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC). We used data from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC), Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/BRCA2 (CIMBA), UK Biobank (UKBB), and FinnGen to identify novel HGSOC susceptibility loci and develop polygenic scores (PGS).

Methods

We analyzed >22 million variants for 398,238 women. Associations were assessed separately by consortium and meta-analysed. OCAC and CIMBA data were used to develop PGS which were trained on FinnGen data and validated in UKBB and BioBank Japan.

Results

Eight novel variants were associated with HGSOC risk. An interesting discovery biologically was finding that TP53 3'-UTR SNP rs78378222 was associated with HGSOC (per T allele relative risk (RR)=1.44, 95%CI:1.28-1.62, P=1.76×10-9). The optimal PGS included 64,518 variants and was associated with an odds ratio of 1.46 (95%CI:1.37-1.54) per standard deviation in the UKBB validation (AUROC curve=0.61, 95%CI:0.59-0.62).

Conclusions

This study represents the largest GWAS for HGSOC to date. The results highlight that improvements in imputation reference panels and increased sample sizes can identify HGSOC associated variants that previously went undetected, resulting in improved PGS. The use of updated PGS in cancer risk prediction algorithms will then improve personalized risk prediction for HGSOC.

Recent advances in polygenic scores: translation, equitability, methods and FAIR tools

Polygenic scores (PGS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying individuals' genetic predisposition to disease, and many potentially clinically useful applications have been proposed. Here, we review the latest potential benefits of PGS in the clinic and challenges to implementation. PGS could augment risk stratification through combined use with traditional risk factors (demographics, disease-specific risk factors, family history, etc.), to support diagnostic pathways, to predict groups with therapeutic benefits, and to increase the efficiency of clinical trials. However, there exist challenges to maximizing the clinical utility of PGS, including FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) use and standardized sharing of the genomic data needed to develop and recalculate PGS, the equitable performance of PGS across populations and ancestries, the generation of robust and reproducible PGS calculations, and the responsible communication and interpretation of results. We outline how these challenges may be overcome analytically and with more diverse data as well as highlight sustained community efforts to achieve equitable, impactful, and responsible use of PGS in healthcare.

The local environment and germline genetic variation predict cancer risk in the UK Biobank prospective cohort

BACKGROUND

There is a growing body of evidence on the effect of the local environment exposure on cancer susceptibility. Nonetheless, several of the associations remain controversial. Moreover, our understanding of the possible interaction between the local environment and the genetic variability is still very limited.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to clarify the role of the local environment and its possible interplay with genetics on common cancers development.

METHODS

Using the UK Biobank (UKBB) prospective cohort, we selected 12 local environment exposures: nitrogen oxides, nitrogen dioxides, particulate matter (10 and 2.5 μm), noise pollution, urban traffic, living distance from the coast, percentage of greenspace, natural environment, water, and domestic garden within 1000 m from the residential coordinates of each participant. All these exposures were tested for association with 17 different types of cancer for a total of 53,270 cases and 302,645 controls. Additionally, a polygenic score (PGS) was computed for each cancer, to test possible gene-environment interactions. Finally, mediation analyses were carried out.

RESULTS

Thirty-six statistically significant associations considering multiple testing (p < 2.19 × 10-4) were observed. Among the novel associations we observed that individuals living farther from the coast had a higher risk of developing prostate cancer (OR = 1.13, CI95% = 1.06-1.20, P = 1.98 × 10-4). This association was partially mediated by physical activity (indirect effect (IE) = -8.48 × 10-7) and the time spent outdoor (IE = 9.07 × 10-6). All PGSs showed statistically significant associations. Finally, genome-environment interaction analysis showed that local environment and genetic variability affect cancer risk independently.

DISCUSSION

Living close to the coast and air pollution were associated with a decreased risk of prostate cancer and skin melanoma, respectively. These findings from the UKBB support the role of the local environment on cancer development, which is independent from genetics and may be mediated by several lifestyle factors.

Principles and methods for transferring polygenic risk scores across global populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) summarize the genetic predisposition of a complex human trait or disease and may become a valuable tool for advancing precision medicine. However, PRSs that are developed in populations of predominantly European genetic ancestries can increase health disparities due to poor predictive performance in individuals of diverse and complex genetic ancestries. We describe genetic and modifiable risk factors that limit the transferability of PRSs across populations and review the strengths and weaknesses of existing PRS construction methods for diverse ancestries. Developing PRSs that benefit global populations in research and clinical settings provides an opportunity for innovation and is essential for health equity.

Ovarian Cancer: From Precursor Lesion Identification to Population-Based Prevention Programs

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is a heterogeneous group of malignancies, including high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC). HGSC is often diagnosed at advanced stages and is linked to TP53 variants. While BRCA variants elevate risk, most HGSC cases occur in individuals without known genetic variants, necessitating prevention strategies for people without known high-risk genetic variants. Effective prevention programs are also needed due to the lack of traditional screening options. An emerging primary prevention strategy is opportunistic salpingectomy, which involves removing fallopian tubes during another planned pelvic surgery. Opportunistic salpingectomy offers a safe and cost-effective preventative option that is gaining global adoption. With the publication of the first cohort study of patients who underwent salpingectomy, specifically for cancer prevention, attention has turned to broadening opportunities for salpingectomy in addition to more targeted approaches. Prevention opportunities are promising with increasing adoption of salpingectomy and the increased understanding of the etiology of the distinct histotypes of ovarian cancer. Yet, further research on targeted risk-reducing salpingectomy with thoughtful consideration of equity is necessary to reduce death and suffering from ovarian cancer.

A framework for assessing interactions for risk stratification models: the example of ovarian cancer

Generally, risk stratification models for cancer use effect estimates from risk/protective factor analyses that have not assessed potential interactions between these exposures. We have developed a 4-criterion framework for assessing interactions that includes statistical, qualitative, biological, and practical approaches. We present the application of this framework in an ovarian cancer setting because this is an important step in developing more accurate risk stratification models. Using data from 9 case-control studies in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of interactions among 15 unequivocal risk and protective factors for ovarian cancer (including 14 non-genetic factors and a 36-variant polygenic score) with age and menopausal status. Pairwise interactions between the risk/protective factors were also assessed. We found that menopausal status modifies the association among endometriosis, first-degree family history of ovarian cancer, breastfeeding, and depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate use and disease risk, highlighting the importance of understanding multiplicative interactions when developing risk prediction models.

Quality of life after risk-reducing surgery for breast and ovarian cancer prevention: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the impact of risk-reducing surgery for breast cancer and ovarian cancer prevention on quality of life. We considered risk-reducing mastectomy, risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy, and risk-reducing early salpingectomy and delayed oophorectomy.

DATA SOURCES

We followed a prospective protocol (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews: CRD42022319782) and searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane Library from inception to February 2023.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We followed a PICOS (population, intervention, comparison, outcome, and study design) framework. The population included women at increased risk of breast cancer or ovarian cancer. We focused on studies reporting quality of life outcomes (health-related quality of life, sexual function, menopause symptoms, body image, cancer-related distress or worry, anxiety, or depression) after risk-reducing surgery, including risk-reducing mastectomy for breast cancer and risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy or risk-reducing early salpingectomy and delayed oophorectomy for ovarian cancer.

METHODS

We used the Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies (MINORS) for study appraisal. Qualitative synthesis and fixed-effects meta-analysis were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 34 studies were included (risk-reducing mastectomy: 16 studies; risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy: 19 studies; risk-reducing early salpingectomy and delayed oophorectomy: 2 studies). Health-related quality of life was unchanged or improved in 13 of 15 studies after risk-reducing mastectomy (N=986) and 10 of 16 studies after risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (N=1617), despite short-term deficits (N=96 after risk-reducing mastectomy and N=459 after risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy). Sexual function (using the Sexual Activity Questionnaire) was affected in 13 of 16 studies (N=1400) after risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy in terms of decreased sexual pleasure (-1.21 [-1.53 to -0.89]; N=3070) and increased sexual discomfort (1.12 [0.93-1.31]; N=1400). Hormone replacement therapy after premenopausal risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy was associated with an increase (1.16 [0.17-2.15]; N=291) in sexual pleasure and a decrease (-1.20 [-1.75 to -0.65]; N=157) in sexual discomfort. Sexual function was affected in 4 of 13 studies (N=147) after risk-reducing mastectomy, but stable in 9 of 13 studies (N=799). Body image was unaffected in 7 of 13 studies (N=605) after risk-reducing mastectomy, whereas 6 of 13 studies (N=391) reported worsening. Increased menopause symptoms were reported in 12 of 13 studies (N=1759) after risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy with a reduction (-1.96 [-2.81 to -1.10]; N=1745) in the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Endocrine Symptoms. Cancer-related distress was unchanged or decreased in 5 of 5 studies after risk-reducing mastectomy (N=365) and 8 of 10 studies after risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (N=1223). Risk-reducing early salpingectomy and delayed oophorectomy (2 studies, N=413) led to better sexual function and menopause-specific quality of life.

CONCLUSION

Risk-reducing surgery may be associated with quality of life outcomes. Risk-reducing mastectomy and risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy reduce cancer-related distress, and do not affect health-related quality of life. Women and clinicians should be aware of body image problems after risk-reducing mastectomy, and of sexual dysfunction and menopause symptoms after risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy. Risk-reducing early salpingectomy and delayed oophorectomy may be a promising alternative to mitigate quality of life-related risks of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy.

Polygenic scores in cancer

Since the publication of the first genome-wide association study for cancer in 2007, thousands of common alleles that are associated with the risk of cancer have been identified. The relative risk associated with individual variants is small and of limited clinical significance. However, the combined effect of multiple risk variants as captured by polygenic scores (PGSs) may be much greater and therefore provide risk discrimination that is clinically useful. We review the considerable research efforts over the past 15 years for developing statistical methods for PGSs and their application in large-scale genome-wide association studies to develop PGSs for various cancers. We review the predictive performance of these PGSs and the multiple challenges currently limiting the clinical application of PGSs. Despite this, PGSs are beginning to be incorporated into clinical multifactorial risk prediction models to stratify risk in both clinical trials and clinical implementation studies.

Functional and Clinical Characterization of Variants of Uncertain Significance Identifies a Hotspot for Inactivating Missense Variants in RAD51C

Pathogenic protein-truncating variants of RAD51C, which plays an integral role in promoting DNA damage repair, increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancer. A large number of RAD51C missense variants of uncertain significance (VUS) have been identified, but the effects of the majority of these variants on RAD51C function and cancer predisposition have not been established. Here, analysis of 173 missense variants by a homology-directed repair (HDR) assay in reconstituted RAD51C-/- cells identified 30 nonfunctional (deleterious) variants, including 18 in a hotspot within the ATP-binding region. The deleterious variants conferred sensitivity to cisplatin and olaparib and disrupted formation of RAD51C/XRCC3 and RAD51B/RAD51C/RAD51D/XRCC2 complexes. Computational analysis indicated the deleterious variant effects were consistent with structural effects on ATP-binding to RAD51C. A subset of the variants displayed similar effects on RAD51C activity in reconstituted human RAD51C-depleted cancer cells. Case-control association studies of deleterious variants in women with breast and ovarian cancer and noncancer controls showed associations with moderate breast cancer risk [OR, 3.92; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.18-7.59] and high ovarian cancer risk (OR, 14.8; 95% CI, 7.71-30.36), similar to protein-truncating variants. This functional data supports the clinical classification of inactivating RAD51C missense variants as pathogenic or likely pathogenic, which may improve the clinical management of variant carriers.

SIGNIFICANCE

Functional analysis of the impact of a large number of missense variants on RAD51C function provides insight into RAD51C activity and information for classification of the cancer relevance of RAD51C variants.

Validation of the BOADICEA model for predicting the likelihood of carrying pathogenic variants in eight breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes

BOADICEA is a comprehensive risk prediction model for breast and/or ovarian cancer (BC/OC) and for carrying pathogenic variants (PVs) in cancer susceptibility genes. In addition to BRCA1 and BRCA2, BOADICEA version 6 includes PALB2, CHEK2, ATM, BARD1, RAD51C and RAD51D. To validate its predictions for these genes, we conducted a retrospective study including 2033 individuals counselled at clinical genetics departments in Denmark. All counselees underwent comprehensive genetic testing by next generation sequencing on suspicion of hereditary susceptibility to BC/OC. Likelihoods of PVs were predicted from information about diagnosis, family history and tumour pathology. Calibration was examined using the observed-to-expected ratio (O/E) and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). The O/E was 1.11 (95% CI 0.97-1.26) for all genes combined. At sub-categories of predicted likelihood, the model performed well with limited misestimation at the extremes of predicted likelihood. Discrimination was acceptable with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.66-0.74), although discrimination was better for BRCA1 and BRCA2 than for the other genes in the model. This suggests that BOADICEA remains a valid decision-making aid for determining which individuals to offer comprehensive genetic testing for hereditary susceptibility to BC/OC despite suboptimal calibration for individual genes in this population.

Mortality impact, risks, and benefits of general population screening for ovarian cancer: the UKCTOCS randomised controlled trial

Background

Ovarian and tubal cancers are lethal gynaecological cancers, with over 50% of the patients diagnosed at advanced stage.

Trial design

Randomised controlled trial involving 27 primary care trusts adjacent to 13 trial centres based at NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Methods

Postmenopausal average-risk women, aged 50-74, with intact ovaries and no previous ovarian or current non-ovarian cancer.

Interventions

One of two annual screening strategies: (1) multimodal screening (MMS) using a longitudinal CA125 algorithm with repeat CA125 testing and transvaginal scan (TVS) as second line test (2) ultrasound screening (USS) using TVS alone with repeat scan to confirm any abnormality. The control (C) group had no screening. Follow-up was through linkage to national registries, postal follow-up questionnaires and direct communication with trial centres and participants.

Objective

To assess comprehensively risks and benefits of ovarian cancer screening in the general population.

Outcome

Primary outcome was death due to ovarian or tubal cancer as assigned by an independent outcomes review committee. Secondary outcomes included incidence and stage at diagnosis of ovarian and tubal cancer, compliance, performance characteristics, harms and cost-effectiveness of the two screening strategies and a bioresource for future research.

Randomisation

The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants using computer-generated random numbers to MMS, USS and C groups in a 1:1:2 ratio.

Blinding

Investigators and participants were unblinded and outcomes review committee was masked to randomisation group.

Analyses

Primary analyses were by intention to screen, comparing separately MMS and USS with C using the Versatile test.

Results

1,243,282 women were invited and 205,090 attended for recruitment between April 2001 and September 2005.

Randomised

202,638 women: 50,640 MMS, 50,639 USS and 101,359 C group.

Numbers analysed for primary outcome

202,562 (>99.9%): 50,625 (>99.9%) MMS, 50,623 (>99.9%) USS, and 101,314 (>99.9%) C group.

Outcome

Women in MMS and USS groups underwent 345,570 and 327,775 annual screens between randomisation and 31 December 2011. At median follow-up of 16.3 (IQR 15.1-17.3) years, 2055 women developed ovarian or tubal cancer: 522 (1.0% of 50,625) MMS, 517 (1.0% of 50,623) USS, and 1016 (1.0% of 101314) in C group. Compared to the C group, in the MMS group, the incidence of Stage I/II disease was 39.2% (95% CI 16.1 to 66.9) higher and stage III/IV 10.2% (95% CI -21.3 to 2.4) lower. There was no difference in stage in the USS group. 1206 women died of the disease: 296 (0.6%) MMS, 291 (0.6%) USS, and 619 (0.6%) C group. There was no significant reduction in ovarian and tubal cancer deaths in either MMS (p = 0.580) or USS (p = 0.360) groups compared to the C group. Overall compliance with annual screening episode was 80.8% (345,570/420,047) in the MMS and 78.0% (327,775/420,047) in the USS group. For ovarian and tubal cancers diagnosed within one year of the last test in a screening episode, in the MMS group, the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values were 83.8% (95% CI 78.7 to 88.1), 99.8% (95% CI 99.8 to 99.9), and 28.8% (95% CI 25.5 to 32.2) and in the USS group, 72.2% (95% CI 65.9 to 78.0), 99.5% (95% CI 99.5 to 99.5), and 9.1% (95% CI 7.8 to 10.5) respectively. The final within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was not undertaken as there was no mortality reduction. A bioresource (UKCTOCS Longitudinal Women's Cohort) of longitudinal outcome data and over 0.5 million serum samples including serial annual samples in women in the MMS group was established and to date has been used in many new studies, mainly focused on early detection of cancer.

Harms

Both screening tests (venepuncture and TVS) were associated with minor complications with low (8.6/100,000 screens MMS; 18.6/100,000 screens USS) complication rates. Screening itself did not cause anxiety unless more intense repeat testing was required following abnormal screens. In the MMS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 2.3 (489 false positives; 212 cancers) women in the MMS group had unnecessary false-positive (benign adnexal pathology or normal adnexa) surgery. Overall, 14 (489/345,572 annual screens) underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens. In the USS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 10 (1630 false positives; 164 cancers) underwent unnecessary false-positive surgery. Overall, 50 (1630/327,775 annual screens) women underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens.

Conclusions

Population screening for ovarian and tubal cancer for average-risk women using these strategies should not be undertaken. Decreased incidence of Stage III/IV cancers during multimodal screening did not translate to mortality reduction. Researchers should be cautious about using early stage as a surrogate outcome in screening trials. Meanwhile the bioresource provides a unique opportunity to evaluate early cancer detection tests.

Funding

Long-term follow-up UKCTOCS (2015-2020) - National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR HTA grant 16/46/01), Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal. UKCTOCS (2001-2014) - Medical Research Council (MRC) (G9901012/G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. Researchers at UCL were supported by the NIHR UCL Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre and by MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL core funding (MR_UU_12023).

A combined clinical and genetic model for predicting risk of ovarian cancer

OBJECTIVE

Women with a family history of ovarian cancer or a pathogenic or likely pathogenic gene variant are at high risk of the disease, but very few women have these risk factors. We assessed whether a combined polygenic and clinical risk score could predict risk of ovarian cancer in population-based women who would otherwise be considered as being at average risk.

METHODS

We used the UK Biobank to conduct a prospective cohort study assessing the performance of 10-year ovarian cancer risks based on a polygenic risk score, a clinical risk score and a combined risk score. We used Cox regression to assess association, Harrell's C-index to assess discrimination and Poisson regression to assess calibration.

RESULTS

The combined risk model performed best and problems with calibration were overcome by recalibrating the model, which then had a hazard ratio per quintile of risk of 1.338 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.152-1.553], a Harrell's C-index of 0.663 (95% CI, 0.629-0.698) and overall calibration of 1.000 (95% CI, 0.874-1.145). In the refined model with estimates based on the entire dataset, women in the top quintile of 10-year risk were at 1.387 (95% CI, 1.086-1.688) times increased risk, while women in the top quintile of full-lifetime risk were at 1.527 (95% CI, 1.187-1.866) times increased risk compared with the population.

CONCLUSION

Identification of women who are at high risk of ovarian cancer can allow healthcare providers and patients to engage in joint decision-making discussions around the risks and benefits of screening options or risk-reducing surgery.

Quality of Life after Risk-Reducing Hysterectomy for Endometrial Cancer Prevention: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Risk-reducing hysterectomy (RRH) is the gold-standard prevention for endometrial cancer (EC). Knowledge of the impact on quality-of-life (QoL) is crucial for decision-making. This systematic review aims to summarise the evidence.

METHODS

We searched major databases until July 2022 (CRD42022347631). Given the paucity of data on RRH, we also included hysterectomy as treatment for benign disease. We used validated quality-assessment tools, and performed qualitative synthesis of QoL outcomes.

RESULTS

Four studies (64 patients) reported on RRH, 25 studies (1268 patients) on hysterectomy as treatment for uterine bleeding. There was moderate risk-of-bias in many studies. Following RRH, three qualitative studies found substantially lowered cancer-worry, with no decision-regret. Oophorectomy (for ovarian cancer prevention) severely impaired menopause-specific QoL and sexual-function, particularly without hormone-replacement. Quantitative studies supported these results, finding low distress and generally high satisfaction. Hysterectomy as treatment of bleeding improved QoL, resulted in high satisfaction, and no change or improvements in sexual and urinary function, although small numbers reported worsening.

CONCLUSIONS

There is very limited evidence on QoL after RRH. Whilst there are benefits, most adverse consequences arise from oophorectomy. Benign hysterectomy allows for some limited comparison; however, more research is needed for outcomes in the population of women at increased EC-risk.

UK consensus recommendations for clinical management of cancer risk for women with germline pathogenic variants in cancer predisposition genes: RAD51C, RAD51D, BRIP1 and PALB2

Germline pathogenic variants (GPVs) in the cancer predisposition genes BRCA1, BRCA2, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, BRIP1, PALB2, RAD51D and RAD51C are identified in approximately 15% of patients with ovarian cancer (OC). While there are clear guidelines around clinical management of cancer risk in patients with GPV in BRCA1, BRCA2, MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6, there are few guidelines on how to manage the more moderate OC risk in patients with GPV in BRIP1, PALB2, RAD51D and RAD51C, with clinical questions about appropriateness and timing of risk-reducing gynaecological surgery. Furthermore, while recognition of RAD51C and RAD51D as OC predisposition genes has been established for several years, an association with breast cancer (BC) has only more recently been described and clinical management of this risk has been unclear. With expansion of genetic testing of these genes to all patients with non-mucinous OC, new data on BC risk and improved estimates of OC risk, the UK Cancer Genetics Group and CanGene-CanVar project convened a 2-day meeting to reach a national consensus on clinical management of BRIP1, PALB2, RAD51D and RAD51C carriers in clinical practice. In this paper, we present a summary of the processes used to reach and agree on a consensus, as well as the key recommendations from the meeting.

Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Service in Sparsely Populated Western Pomerania

The German Consortium Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (GC-HBOC) consists of 23 academic centers striving to provide high-quality regional care for affected individuals and healthy at-risk family members. According to the standard operating procedures defined by the GC-HBOC, a Familial Breast and Ovarian Cancer Center was implemented at the University Medicine Greifswald over a four-year period from 2018 to 2021, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Genetic analyses were performed in a total of 658 individuals, including 41 males, which paved the way to local annual risk-adapted breast cancer surveillance for 91 women and prophylactic surgery for 34 women in 2021. Our experience in the North Eastern part of Germany demonstrates that it is possible to establish a high-risk breast and ovarian cancer service even in a sparsely populated region. Major facilitators are the interdisciplinary collaboration of dedicated local experts, the support of the GC-HBOC, fruitful clinical and scientific cooperations and the use of technical improvements. As a blueprint, our project report may help to further expand the network of specialized and knowledge-generating care for HBOC families.

Early diagnosis of symptomatic ovarian cancer in primary care in the UK: opportunities and challenges

Background:

Ovarian cancer is the sixth most common cause of cancer-related death in the UK amongst women. Ovarian cancer presents particular challenges for general practitioners (GPs) to diagnose due to its rarity and presentation with non-specific symptoms.

Methods:

A narrative overview of the literature was conducted by searching PubMed and Researchgate for relevant articles, using keywords such as “ovarian cancer,” “primary care” and “diagnosis.”

Results and Discussion:

Studies have shown that in the UK, GPs have a lower readiness to refer and investigate potential cancer symptoms compared with their international counterparts; and this has been correlated with reduced survival. Early diagnosis can be facilitated through a people-focussed and system-based approach which involves both educating GPs and using risk algorithms, rapid diagnostic centres/multi-disciplinary centres and being data-driven through the identification of best practice from national audits. Further research is required into the best evidence-based early investigations for ovarian cancer and more effective biomarkers.

Prevalence of Cancer Predisposition Germline Variants in Male Breast Cancer Patients: Results of the German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer

Male breast cancer (mBC) is associated with a high prevalence of pathogenic variants (PVs) in the BRCA2 gene; however, data regarding other BC predisposition genes are limited. In this retrospective multicenter study, we investigated the prevalence of PVs in BRCA1/2 and 23 non-BRCA1/2 genes using a sample of 614 patients with mBC, recruited through the centers of the German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer. A high proportion of patients with mBC carried PVs in BRCA2 (23.0%, 142/614) and BRCA1 (4.6%, 28/614). The prevalence of BRCA1/2 PVs was 11.0% in patients with mBC without a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer. Patients with BRCA1/2 PVs did not show an earlier disease onset than those without. The predominant clinical presentation of tumor phenotypes was estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, progesterone receptor (PR)-positive, and HER2-negative (77.7%); further, 10.2% of the tumors were triple-positive, and 1.2% were triple-negative. No association was found between ER/PR/HER2 status and BRCA1/2 PV occurrence. Comparing the prevalence of protein-truncating variants (PTVs) between patients with mBC and control data (ExAC, n = 27,173) revealed significant associations of PTVs in both BRCA1 and BRCA2 with mBC (BRCA1: OR = 17.04, 95% CI = 10.54−26.82, p < 10−5; BRCA2: OR = 77.71, 95% CI = 58.71−102.33, p < 10−5). A case-control investigation of 23 non-BRCA1/2 genes in 340 BRCA1/2-negative patients and ExAC controls revealed significant associations of PTVs in CHEK2, PALB2, and ATM with mBC (CHEK2: OR = 3.78, 95% CI = 1.59−7.71, p = 0.002; PALB2: OR = 14.77, 95% CI = 5.02−36.02, p < 10−5; ATM: OR = 3.36, 95% CI = 0.89−8.96, p = 0.04). Overall, our findings support the benefit of multi-gene panel testing in patients with mBC irrespective of their family history, age at disease onset, and tumor phenotype.

Gynecologic Cancer Risk and Genetics: Informing an Ideal Model of Gynecologic Cancer Prevention

Individuals with proven hereditary cancer syndrome (HCS) such as BRCA1 and BRCA2 have elevated rates of ovarian, breast, and other cancers. If these high-risk people can be identified before a cancer is diagnosed, risk-reducing interventions are highly effective and can be lifesaving. Despite this evidence, the vast majority of Canadians with HCS are unaware of their risk. In response to this unmet opportunity for prevention, the British Columbia Gynecologic Cancer Initiative convened a research summit “Gynecologic Cancer Prevention: Thinking Big, Thinking Differently” in Vancouver, Canada on 26 November 2021. The aim of the conference was to explore how hereditary cancer prevention via population-based genetic testing could decrease morbidity and mortality from gynecologic cancer. The summit invited local, national, and international experts to (1) discuss how genetic testing could be more broadly implemented in a Canadian system, (2) identify key research priorities in this topic and (3) outline the core essential elements required for such a program to be successful. This report summarizes the findings from this research summit, describes the current state of hereditary genetic programs in Canada, and outlines incremental steps that can be taken to improve prevention for high-risk Canadians now while developing an organized population-based hereditary cancer strategy.

Personalised Risk Prediction in Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer: A Protocol for a Multi-Centre Randomised Controlled Trial

Women who test positive for an inherited pathogenic/likely pathogenic gene variant in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM are at an increased risk of developing certain types of cancer-specifically breast (all) and epithelial ovarian cancer (only BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2). Women receive broad cancer risk figures that are not personalised (e.g., 44-63% lifetime risk of breast cancer for those with PALB2). Broad, non-personalised risk estimates may be problematic for women when they are considering how to manage their risk. Multifactorial-risk-prediction tools have the potential to deliver personalised risk estimates. These may be useful in the patient's decision-making process and impact uptake of risk-management options. This randomised control trial (registration number to follow), based in genetic centres in the UK and US, will randomise participants on a 1:1 basis to either receive conventional cancer risk estimates, as per routine clinical practice, or to receive a personalised risk estimate. This personalised risk estimate will be calculated using the CanRisk risk prediction tool, which combines the patient's genetic result, family history and polygenic risk score (PRS), along with hormonal and lifestyle factors. Women's decision-making around risk management will be monitored using questionnaires, completed at baseline (pre-appointment) and follow-up (one, three and twelve months after receiving their risk assessment). The primary outcome for this study is the type and timing of risk management options (surveillance, chemoprevention, surgery) taken up over the course of the study (i.e., 12 months). The type of risk-management options planned to be taken up in the future (i.e., beyond the end of the study) and the potential impact of personalised risk estimates on women's psychosocial health will be collected as secondary-outcome measures. This study will also assess the acceptability, feasibility and cost-effectiveness of using personalised risk estimates in clinical care.

Unselected Population Genetic Testing for Personalised Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction: A Qualitative Study Using Semi-Structured Interviews

Unselected population-based personalised ovarian cancer (OC) risk assessments combining genetic, epidemiological and hormonal data have not previously been undertaken. We aimed to understand the attitudes, experiences and impact on the emotional well-being of women from the general population who underwent unselected population genetic testing (PGT) for personalised OC risk prediction and who received low-risk (<5% lifetime risk) results. This qualitative study was set within recruitment to a pilot PGT study using an OC risk tool and telephone helpline. OC-unaffected women ≥ 18 years and with no prior OC gene testing were ascertained through primary care in London. In-depth, semi-structured and 1:1 interviews were conducted until informational saturation was reached following nine interviews. Six interconnected themes emerged: health beliefs; decision making; factors influencing acceptability; effect on well-being; results communication; satisfaction. Satisfaction with testing was high and none expressed regret. All felt the telephone helpline was helpful and should remain optional. Delivery of low-risk results reduced anxiety. However, care must be taken to emphasise that low risk does not equal no risk. The main facilitators were ease of testing, learning about children’s risk and a desire to prevent disease. Barriers included change in family dynamics, insurance, stigmatisation and personality traits associated with stress/worry. PGT for personalised OC risk prediction in women in the general population had high acceptability/satisfaction and reduced anxiety in low-risk individuals. Facilitators/barriers observed were similar to those reported with genetic testing from high-risk cancer clinics and unselected PGT in the Jewish population.

The future of early cancer detection

A proactive approach to detecting cancer at an early stage can make treatments more effective, with fewer side effects and improved long-term survival. However, as detection methods become increasingly sensitive, it can be difficult to distinguish inconsequential changes from lesions that will lead to life-threatening cancer. Progress relies on a detailed understanding of individualized risk, clear delineation of cancer development stages, a range of testing methods with optimal performance characteristics, and robust evaluation of the implications for individuals and society. In the future, advances in sensors, contrast agents, molecular methods, and artificial intelligence will help detect cancer-specific signals in real time. To reduce the burden of cancer on society, risk-based detection and prevention needs to be cost effective and widely accessible.