Post-stroke case fatality within an incident population in rural Tanzania

Estimating the Lifetime Cost of Managing Hypertension in Ghana: A Modelling Study

Introduction

Over the last decade, hypertension (HPT) is among the leading causes of death and morbidity in Ghana. In recent past, most health policy research in Ghana and Africa focussed on communicable diseases. In recent times, Ghana and other developing nations have shifted their attention to non-communicable diseases because most of these countries are going through an epidemiologic transition where there is a surge in the prevalence of HPT. This paper was therefore set out to estimate the cost of treating HPT in Ghana from the patients' and health system's perspectives.

Method

We used a cost of illness framework to simulate the cost of HPT management in Ghana taking into account 4 of the common target organ complications with the most mortality implication. A decision analytic model (DAM) was developed in Microsoft® Excel to simulate the progression of HPT patients and the Markov model was employed in simulating the lifetime cost of illness.

Results

The results show that by 10 years from diagnosis, the probability of death from any of the 4 complications (ie, stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease) is roughly 41.03%. By 20 years (or 243 months) from diagnosis, the probability of death is estimated to be 69.61%. However, by the 30th anniversary, the probability of death among the cohort is 82.3%. Also, the lifetime discounted cost of treating HPT is about GHS 869 106 which could range between GHS 570 239 and GHS 1.202 million if wide uncertainty is taken into account. This is equivalent to USD 119 056 (range: USD 78 115-164 723).

Conclusion

By highlighting the lifetime cost of treating HPT in Ghana, policies can be formulated regarding the cost of treating HPT by the non-communicable disease unit and National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) of the Ministry of Health.

Patient-level and system-level determinants of stroke fatality across 16 large hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Every minute, six indigenous Africans develop new strokes. Patient-level and system-level contributors to early stroke fatality in this region are yet to be delineated. We aimed to identify and quantify the contributions of patient-level and system-level determinants of inpatient stroke fatality across 16 hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria.

METHODS

The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicentre study involving 16 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults (aged ≥18 years) with clinical and radiological evidence of an acute stroke. Data on stroke services and resources available at each study site were collected and analysed as system-level factors. A host of demographic and clinical variables of cases were analysed as patient-level factors. A mixed effect log-binomial model including both patient-level and system-level covariates was fitted. Results are presented as adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) with respective 95% CIs.

FINDINGS

Overall, 814 (21·8%) of the 3739 patients admitted with stroke died as inpatients: 476 (18·1%) of 2635 with ischaemic stroke and 338 (30·6%) of 1104 with intracerebral haemorrhage. The variability in the odds of stroke fatality that could be attributed to the system-level factors across study sites assessed using model intracluster correlation coefficient was substantial at 7·3% (above a 5% threshold). Stroke units were available at only five of 16 centres. The aRRs of six patient-level factors associated with stroke fatality were: low vegetable consumption, 1·19 (95% CI 1·07-1·33); systolic blood pressure, 1·02 (1·01-1·04) for each 10 mm Hg rise; stroke lesion volume more than 30 cm3, 1·48 (1·22-1·79); National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, 1·20 (1·13-1·26) for each 5-unit rise; elevated intracranial pressure, 1·75 (1·31-2·33); and aspiration pneumonia, 1·79 (1·16-2·77).

INTERPRETATION

Studies are needed to assess the efficacy of interventions targeting patient-level factors such as aspiration pneumonia in reducing acute stroke fatality in this region. Policy directives to improve stroke unit access are warranted.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Twi, Yoruba and Hausa translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Polypill Programs to Prevent Stroke and Cut Costs in Low Income Countries: Moving From Clinical Efficacy to Pragmatic Implementation

Current projections are that the already overwhelming burden of strokes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) will continue to rise over the coming decades as the prevalence of traditional vascular risk factors burgeon in these countries. Cardiovascular polypills containing combinations of antihypertensive(s), a statin, with or without aspirin or folic acid in the form of a single pill, represent a viable strategy for both primary and secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases in LMICs. Large multicenter trials in LMIC and high-income country (HIC) settings have now clearly demonstrated the beneficial effects of the cardiovascular polypill versus placebo (or usual care) in reducing primary stroke risk by 50%. For survivors of a recent myocardial infarction residing in HICs, the polypill reduced risk of major cardiovascular events by 25% due to improved treatment adherence. Data on the clinical efficacy of the polypill for secondary stroke prevention are scanty both in HICs and LMICs. Cost-effectiveness analyses data from LMICs suggest cost savings with the polypill for primary and secondary prevention of stroke and atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases. However, major contextual barriers in LMICs need to be surmounted through mixed methods research and hybrid clinical trials to assess its real-world effectiveness, before the adoption of the polypill for primary and secondary atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease prevention in routine clinical practice.

Stroke in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the incidence and case-fatality rates

BACKGROUND

The burden of stroke (a leading cause of disability and mortality) in Africa appears to be increasing, but a systematic review of the best available data to support or refute this observation is lacking.

AIM

To determine the incidence and 1-month case-fatality rates from high-quality studies of stroke epidemiology among Africans.

SUMMARY OF REVIEW

We searched and retrieved eligible articles on stroke epidemiology among indigenous Africans in bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and Cochrane library) using predefined search terms from the earliest records through January 2022. Methodological assessment of eligible studies was conducted using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Pooling of incidence and case-fatality rates was performed via generalized linear models (Poisson-Normal random-effects model). Of the 922 articles retrieved, 14 studies were eligible for inclusion. The total number of stroke cases was 2568, with a population denominator (total sample size included in population-based registries or those who agreed to participate in door-to-door community studies) of 3,384,102. The pooled crude incidence rate of stroke per 100,000 persons in Africa was 106.49 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 58.59-193.55), I² = 99.6%. The point estimate of the crude incidence rate was higher among males, 111.33 (95% CI = 56.31-220.12), I² = 99.2%, than females, 91.14 (95% CI = 47.09-176.37), I² = 98.9%. One-month case-fatality rate was 24.45 (95% CI = 16.84-35.50), I² = 96.8%, with lower estimates among males, 22.68 (95% CI = 18.62-27.63), I² = 12.9%, than females, 27.57 (95% CI = 21.47-35.40), I² = 51.6%.

CONCLUSION

The burden of stroke in Africa remains very high. However, little is known about the dynamics of stroke epidemiology among Africans due to the dearth of high-quality evidence. Further continent-wide rigorous epidemiological studies and surveillance programs using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to Surveillance (WHO STEPS) framework are needed.

Differential associations between pre-diabetes, diabetes and stroke occurrence among West Africans

BACKGROUND

There are limited data from Africa on the burden and associations between pre-diabetes (pre-DM), diabetes mellitus (DM) and stroke occurrence in a region experiencing a profound rise in stroke burden.

PURPOSE

To characterize the associations between stroke and dysglycemic status among West Africans.

METHODS

The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicenter, case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults aged ≥18 years with clinical and radiological evidence of an acute stroke. Controls were age-and-gender matched stroke-free adults. Detailed evaluations for vascular factors were performed. Pre-diabetes was defined as HBA1c of 5.7%-6.4% or Fasting blood glucose (FBG) 5.6-7.0 mmol/L and DM as HBA1c >6.5% or FBG>7.0 mmol/L. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% Confidence Interval.

RESULTS

Among 2,935 stroke cases the mean age was 60.0 ± 14.2 years with 55.2% being males. By glycemic status, 931 (31.7%) were euglycemic, 633 (21.6%) had Pre-diabetes and 1371 (46.7%) had DM. Of the age- and sex-matched stroke-free controls 69.2% were euglycemic, 13.3% had pre-DM and 17.5% had DM. Pre-DM [aOR (95% CI): 3.68(2.61-5.21)] and DM [4.29 (3.19-5.74)] were independently associated with stroke. The aOR of Pre-DM for ischemic stroke 3.06 (2.01-4.64)] was lower than 4.82 (3.37-6.89) for DM. However, the aOR of Pre-DM for hemorrhagic stroke 6.81 (95% CI: 3.29 - 14.08)] was higher than 3.36 (1.94-5.86) for DM. Furthermore, the aOR of pre-DM for ischemic stroke subtypes were 9.64 (1.30-71.57) for cardio-embolic stroke, 3.64 (1.80-7.34) for small-vessel occlusive disease and 4.63 (0.80-26.65) for large-vessel disease.

CONCLUSION

Pre-DM is strongly and independently associated with stroke in Africans. Improving glycemic control through screening, healthy lifestyle and pharmacotherapy at a population level may be strategic in reducing the rising burden of stroke in Africa.

Utilizing Implementation Science to Bridge Cerebrovascular Health Disparities: a Local to Global Perspective

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Stroke is a prime example of a medical disorder whose incidence, prevalence, and outcomes are strongly characterized by health disparities across the globe. This scoping literature review seeks to depict how implementation science could be utilized to advance health equity in the prevention, acute treatment, and post-acute management of stroke in the underserved regions of high-income countries as well as in all low-income countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

A major reason for the persisting and widening cerebrovascular disease disparities is that evidence-based stroke prevention and treatment interventions have been differentially translated (if at all) to various populations and settings. The field of implementation science is endowed with frameworks, theories, methodological approaches, and outcome measures, including equity indices, which could be harnessed to facilitate the translation of evidence-based interventions into clinical practice for underserved and vulnerable communities. Encouragingly, there are several novel frameworks, which eminently merge implementation science constructs with health equity determinants, thereby opening up key opportunities to bridge burgeoning worldwide gaps in cerebrovascular health equity.

Osuntokun Award Lecture 2021: Challenges of Measuring the Burden of Stroke in Africa

BACKGROUND

Over recent years non-communicable diseases have dramatically increased in low- and middle-income countries, including those of sub-Saharan Africa. With continuing high levels of infectious disease, these countries now face the double burden of disease. Stroke has emerged as a major cause of hospital admission, disability, and mortality for which the major modifiable risk factor is hypertension, which is often not diagnosed and, even if diagnosed, not treated and, even if treated, not controlled.

METHODS

In this award lecture paper I outline my personal experience of measuring the burden of, and risk factors for, stroke in sub-Saharan Africa, along with the challenges faced. I will specifically describe the measurement of mortality and case fatality, prevalence and incidence as well as commenting on aetiology and risk factors and reflect on future initiatives and directions.

RESULTS

Over the past 5 decades there has been a dramatic increase in numbers of stroke patients admitted to hospital throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with high in hospital mortality rates, also reflected in high case fatality rates in those cohorts followed up following discharge from hospital. Community-based surveys assessing mortality from stroke using verbal autopsy have demonstrated very high age-adjusted rates. Age adjusted prevalence rates assessed by door-to-door surveys have generally shown lower prevalence than high income countries. The Tanzanian stroke incidence study, which incorporated verbal autopsy for those patients dying before reaching hospital, demonstrated some of the highest age-adjusted stroke incidence rates in the world. There were high rates of stroke in younger ages and high rates of intracranial haemorrhage though not as high as previously shown in hospital-based studies. Hypertension is the main modifiable risk factor but other risk factors such as HIV are important while, certainly in rural populations, raised cholesterol remains rare as does carotid artery stenosis and history of transient ischemic attack. Other vascular disease such as ischemic heart disease and peripheral vascular disease is also less common.

CONCLUSIONS

There is already a large burden relating to stroke in sub-Saharan Africa and this will only escalate further as the population ages. Hypertension is the biggest risk factor for mortality worldwide and in sub-Saharan Africa prevalence rates are very high with the majority of people suffering with stroke not being diagnosed with their hypertension prior to their stroke. The most important challenge is to improve primary prevention for which improving diagnosis and control rates for hypertension is the number one priority. For those who do have stroke there is a need to increase the number of suitably staffed stroke units as these have been shown to have a very large impact on improving both mortality and morbidity in high income countries. There are still many unanswered questions and a need for more research throughout sub-Saharan Africa on risk factors, and treatment, for stroke.

Key determinants of long-term post-stroke mortality in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Stroke affects a predominantly young to middle-aged population in Africa and is associated with poor outcomes. There are limited data on patient-level determinants of long-term stroke survival on the continent.

PURPOSE

To assess factors associated with long-term, all-cause mortality among stroke survivors in a Ghanaian medical system.

METHODS

We analyzed the dataset of clinical trial involving hypertensive stroke survivors (n = 60) who enrolled in a 9-month study primarily assessing the effect of an m-health intervention on blood pressure control. This was a single tertiary center study conducted in a Ghanaian medical center. Participants or relatives were contacted by a phone call to assess vital status 4.5 years after stroke onset. Demographic, psycho-social and vascular risk factors data were collected during the study. Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to assess the factors associated with death.

RESULTS

Among the study participants, long term information was obtainable on 58 of 60 (97%). After a median follow-up of 52 months [IQR: 48 to 53 months], 16 participants had died, resulting in a mortality rate of 27.6% (95% CI of 16.6% - 40.9%). Upon adjustment for confounders, the two factors independently associated with long-term mortality were resistant hypertension (Hazard Ratio 3.99; 95% CI: 1.29-12.37] and depression (Hazard Ratio 1.18; 95% CI: 1.05-1.31; per unit rise on the Hamilton Depression Scale).

CONCLUSION

In this convenience sample of recent stroke patients in Ghana, over a quarter had died within 5 years of index stroke onset. Resistant hypertension and depression may be modifiable therapeutic targets to improve outcomes in these patients.

Stroke Epidemiology, Care, and Outcomes in Kenya: A Scoping Review

Background: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa with increasing incidence. In Kenya, it is a neglected condition with a paucity of evidence despite its need for urgent care and hefty economic burden. Therefore, we reviewed studies on stroke epidemiology, care, and outcomes in Kenya to highlight existing evidence and gaps on stroke in Kenya.

Methods: We reviewed all published studies on epidemiology, care, and outcomes of stroke in Kenya between 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2020 from PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCOhost, Scopus, and African journal online. We excluded case reports, reviews, and commentaries. We used the Newcastle-Ottawa scale adapted for cross-sectional studies to assess the quality of included studies.

Results: Twelve articles were reviewed after excluding 111 duplicates and 94 articles that did not meet the inclusion criteria. Five studies were of low quality, two of medium quality, and five of high quality. All studies were hospital-based and conducted between 2003 and 2017. Of the included studies, six were prospective and five were single-center. Stroke patients in the studies were predominantly female, in their seventh decade with systemic hypertension. The mortality rate ranged from 5 to 27% in-hospital and 23.4 to 26.7% in 1 month.

Conclusions: Our study highlights that stroke is a significant problem in Kenya, but current evidence is of low quality and limited in guiding policy development and improving stroke care. There is thus a need for increased investment in hospital- and community-based stroke care and research.

Frequency of recurrent stroke in Burkina Faso: an observational hospital based study of 6 months

Introduction

studies on stroke recurrence are rare in sub-Sahara Africa. The aim to this study is to determine the prevalence and risk factors for recurrent stroke in two University Teaching Hospital in Burkina Faso.

Methods

this prospective cross-sectional study was carried on 266 stroke patients admitted in two hospitals in the city of Ouagadougou from September 1, 2017 to February 28, 2018. Patients with stroke recurrence (ischemic or hemorrhagic) were included.

Results

of 266 acute stroke patients included, 44 (16.4%) had recurrent stroke. The mean age of patients was 66.5 ± 11.49 years with male predominance. Hypertension was the most vascular risk factors (81.8%). Previous stroke was ischemic in 61.4%, hemorrhagic in 22.7% and unknown in 15.9% of cases. Poor compliance (< 60%) was determined in patients taking antiagregant (43.6%) and statins (50%). At admission, the most neurological disorders was motor deficit (100%), aphasia (84.1%), and deglutition disorders (15.9%). CT scan showed ischemic in 82% and hemorrhagic stroke in 18% of cases. With the analysis of second stroke, recurrent stroke after intracerebral hemorrhage was hemorrhagic in 77.8% and ischemic in 22.2%. Recurrent stroke after ischemic stroke was ischemic in 100%.

Conclusion

stroke recurrence is common in our context. Hypertension was the most common vascular risk factor in recurrent stroke. Poor compliance was determined in patients taking antiagregant agents and statins in previous stroke.

Frequency and factors associated with post-stroke seizures in a large multicenter study in West Africa

BACKGROUND

Post-stroke seizures (PSS) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality across the globe. There is a paucity of data on PSS in Africa.

PURPOSE

To assess the frequency and factors associated with PSS by stroke types across 15 hospitals in Nigeria and Ghana.

METHODS

We analyzed data on all stroke cases recruited into the Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN). We included adults aged ≥18 years with radiologically confirmed ischemic stroke (IS) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). PSS were defined as acute symptomatic seizures occurring at stroke onset and/or during acute hospitalization up until discharge. We used logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% Confidence Interval.

RESULTS

Among 3344 stroke patients, 499 (14.9%) had PSS (95% CI: 13.7-16.2%). The mean duration of admission in days for those with PSS vs no PSS was 17.4 ± 28.6 vs 15.9 ± 24.7, p = 0.72. There were 294(14.1%) PSS among 2091 ischemic strokes and 159(17.7%) among 897 with ICH, p = 0.01. The factors associated with PSS occurrence were age < 50 years, aOR of 1.59 (1.08-2.33), National Institute of Health Stroke Score (NIHSS), 1.29 (1.16-1.42) for each 5 units rise and white cell count 1.07 (1.01-1.13) for each 10^3 mm3 rise. Factors associated with PSS in ischemic were NIHSS score, aOR of 1.17 (1.04-1.31) and infarct volume of 10-30 cm3 aOR of 2.17(1.37-3.45). Among ICH, associated factors were alcohol use 5.91 (2.11-16.55) and lobar bleeds 2.22 (1.03-4.82).

CONCLUSION

The burden of PSS among this sample of west Africans is substantial and may contribute to poor outcomes of stroke in this region. Further longitudinal studies are required to understand the impact on morbidity and mortality arising from PSS in Africa.

Phone-Based Intervention under Nurse Guidance after Stroke (PINGS II) Study: Protocol for a Phase III Randomized Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVES

The Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region now has the highest estimated effect size of hypertension for stroke causation worldwide. An urgent priority for countries in SSA is to develop and test self-management interventions to control hypertension among those at highest risk of adverse outcomes. Thus the overall objective of the Phone-based Intervention under Nurse Guidance after Stroke II study (PINGS-2) is to deploy a hybrid study design to assess the efficacy of a theoretical-model-based, mHealth technology-centered, nurse-led, multi-level integrated approach to improve longer term blood pressure (BP) control among stroke survivors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A phase III randomized controlled trial involving 500 recent stroke survivors to be enrolled across 10 Ghanaian hospitals. Using a computer-generated sequence, patients will be randomly assigned 1:1 into the intervention or usual care arms. The intervention comprises of (i) home BP monitoring at least once weekly with nurse navigation for high domiciliary BP readings; (2) medication reminders using mobile phone alerts and (3) education on hypertension and stroke delivered once weekly via audio messages in preferred local dialects. The intervention will last for 12 months. The control group will receive usual care as determined by local guidelines. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients with systolic BP <140 mm Hg at 12 months. Secondary outcomes will include medication adherence, self-management of hypertension, major adverse cardiovascular events, health related quality of life and implementation outcomes.

CONCLUSION

An effective PINGS intervention can potentially be scaled up and disseminated across healthcare systems in low-and-middle income countries challenged with resource constraints to reduce poor outcomes among stroke survivors.

Prevalence and Predictors of Multivitamin Supplement Use After Stroke in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Multivitamins are commonly used supplements in high income countries, but their net benefit-risk, remains inconclusive. Little is known about the prevalence and predictors of multivitamin supplementation among individual with chronic illnesses in sub-Saharan Africa, especially stroke.

PURPOSE

To assess the frequency and factors associated with of use of multivitamin supplement among stroke survivors in Ghana.

METHODS

We analyzed prospectively collected data on consecutively encountered stroke survivors seen at an out-patient clinic in Ghana between January 2018 and March 2020. We collected baseline demographic and clinical details, and use of multivitamins among other secondary prevention medications prescribed. We assessed factors associated with multivitamin supplementation using a multivariable logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among 1,101 stroke survivors, 324 (29.4%) were on multivitamin supplements. Factors independently associated with multivitamin use were being divorced (OR 2.88; 95% CI: 1.52-5.47), time since diagnosis of index per each month increase (OR 0.99; 95% CI: 0.99-1.00), and number of prescribed classes of antihypertensive medications (OR 0.81; 95% CI: 0.72-0.92).

CONCLUSION

Nearly a third of stroke survivors in this Ghanaian sample were on multivitamin supplementation, with select socio-clinical factors being linked to this practice. Future studies should examine how/if this practice is interfering with optimal stroke outcomes.

Stroke in Africa: profile, progress, prospects and priorities

Stroke is a leading cause of disability, dementia and death worldwide. Approximately 70% of deaths from stroke and 87% of stroke-related disability occur in low-income and middle-income countries. At the turn of the century, the most common diseases in Africa were communicable diseases, whereas non-communicable diseases, including stroke, were considered rare, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. However, evidence indicates that, today, Africa could have up to 2-3-fold greater rates of stroke incidence and higher stroke prevalence than western Europe and the USA. In Africa, data published within the past decade show that stroke has an annual incidence rate of up to 316 per 100,000, a prevalence of up to 1,460 per 100,000 and a 3-year fatality rate greater than 80%. Moreover, many Africans have a stroke within the fourth to sixth decades of life, with serious implications for the individual, their family and society. This age profile is particularly important as strokes in younger people tend to result in a greater loss of self-worth and socioeconomic productivity than in older individuals. Emerging insights from research into stroke epidemiology, genetics, prevention, care and outcomes offer great prospects for tackling the growing burden of stroke on the continent. In this article, we review the unique profile of stroke in Africa and summarize current knowledge on stroke epidemiology, genetics, prevention, acute care, rehabilitation, outcomes, cost of care and awareness. We also discuss knowledge gaps, emerging priorities and future directions of stroke medicine for the more than 1 billion people who live in Africa.

Antecedent febrile illness and occurrence of stroke in West Africa: The SIREN study

BACKGROUND

Acute infections have been posited as potential precipitants or triggers of the occurrence of stroke among adults with traditional vascular risk factors. We evaluated associations between stroke occurrence and reported febrile illness within 4 weeks (potential antecedent infections) among West Africans.

METHODS

The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicenter, case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults aged ≥18 years with radiologically confirmed strokes. Controls were stroke-free adults matched with cased by age, gender and ethnicity. Detailed evaluations for vascular, lifestyle and psychosocial factors were performed. Participants were asked for evidence of any febrile illness within the past 4 weeks. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% Confidence Interval.

RESULTS

Among 3588 stroke cases recruited in Ghana and Nigeria between August 2014 and July 2018, 363 cases (10.1%) reported having a febrile illness within the 4 weeks prior to stroke occurrence. Having an antecedent infection was associated with stroke occurrence with an unadjusted OR of 1.19 (1.00-1.51) but aOR of 0.83 (0.59-1.17) upon adjusting for traditional vascular risk factors. Stress, aOR of 4.69 (2.59-8.50) and consumption of green vegetables 2.27 (1.35-2.85) were associated with antecedent febrile illness.

CONCLUSION

1 in 10 stroke cases reported antecedent history of febrile illness prior to occurrence of stroke but no independent association was observed in this study. Infectious exposures may be important triggers of cardiovascular events requiring further exploratory studies to better understand the role of this emerging risk factor.

Prevalence and predictors of post-stroke epilepsy among Ghanaian stroke survivors

BACKGROUND

Post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) is associated with poorer quality of life, higher mortality, and greater health expenditures. We are unaware of any published reports on the frequency of and factors associated with PSE in Africa.

PURPOSE

To assess the frequency and factors associated with PSE among Ghanaian stroke survivors.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study of consecutive stroke survivors seen at an out-patient Neurology clinic enrolled into a stroke registry at a tertiary medical center in Ghana between January 2018 and March 2020. We collected baseline demographic and clinical details including diagnosis of post-stroke epilepsy, anti-epileptic medications, presence, treatment and control of vascular risk factors. Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed to identify factors associated with PSE.

RESULTS

Of 1101 stroke patients encountered, 126 had PSE (frequency of 11.4%; 95% CI of 9.6-13.5%). Mean (± SD) age among PSE vs. non-PSE patients was 57.7 (± 15.2) vs. 58.7 (± 13.9) years. Factors independently associated with PSE were being male (aOR 1.94; 95% CI: 1.32-2.86), cortical ischemic strokes (1.79; 1.12-2.87), blood pressure > 130/80 mmHg (OR 2.26; 1.06-4.79), use of antihypertensive treatment (OR 0.43; 0.23-0.79). There was an inverted J-shaped curve association between number of classes of antihypertensive drugs prescribed and occurrence of PSE, with the lowest inflection point at 3 classes (OR 0.34; 0.17-0.68).

CONCLUSION

In this convenience sample of ambulatory Ghanaian stroke survivors, one in ten had PSE. Further investigations to confirm and clarify the associations between the identified demographic and clinical characteristics are warranted.

Frequency and factors linked to refractory hypertension among stroke survivors in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Refractory hypertension (RfH) is a rare, severe phenotype of resistant hypertension, linked to higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Little is known about the association of RfH with stroke type and subtype.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence and predictors of RfH among stroke survivors in Ghana.

METHODS

We interrogated the dataset of a prospectively collected registry of hypertensive patients seen between July 2015 and June 2019, at five hospitals in Ghana. We compared stroke survivors to stroke-free controls. Clinic-based blood pressure was measured using a standardized protocol and antihypertensive medications were assessed via review of medical records and inspection of pills. Refractory hypertension was defined as office BP ≥140/90 mmHg on ≥5 classes of antihypertensive medications. Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed to assess factors associated with RfH.

RESULTS

Of 3927 hypertensive patients (1169 stroke survivors, 2758 controls), 86 had RfH for an overall prevalence of 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7%). Among patients with RfH, 5.8% (4.5-7.3%) were stroke survivors vs. 0.7% (0.4-1.0%) were stroke-free (p < .0001). Adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) for factors associated with RfH were being male (1.81, 1.15-2.85), age < 60 years (2.64, 1.59-4.40), chronic kidney disease (2.09, 1.21-3.60), and known stroke (7.53, 4.35-13.04). RfH was associated with intracerebral hemorrhage, (11.43, 5.65-23.14), ischemic stroke (9.76, 5.47-17.42), lacunar stroke (13.58, 6.45-28.61), and non-lacunar ischemic stroke (3.67, 1.04-13.02).

CONCLUSION

Presence of RfH is significantly accentuated among stroke survivors. Intensified efforts are warranted to identify and aggressively address barriers to control in these patients to avert subsequent vascular events.

Prevalence and predictors of statin utilization among patient populations at high vascular risk in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Inadequate implementation of evidence-based preventive measures for individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) will only worsen the current epidemic of CVDs in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed rates and predictors of statin utilization among two high CVD risk patient populations, people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and those with stroke, encountered across five hospitals in Ghana.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study among 1427 patients with T2DM and 159 stroke survivors encountered at 5 hospitals (1 primary-level, 2 secondary level and 2 tertiary level) in Ghana between July 2015 and June 2018. We collected baseline demographic and clinical details including statin prescription from medical records. Factors associated with statin prescription among T2DM for primary prevention and stroke survivors for secondary prevention were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among patients with T2DM without CVDs, 240 (16.8%) were on statins for primary prevention. Factors associated with statin use among diabetics expressed as aOR (95% CI) were being treated at a tertiary level hospital 5.86 (3.22-10.68), hypertension comorbidity 1.80 (1.25-2.60), and lower income 0.43 (0.26-0.70). Among 159 stroke survivors, 22 (14.0%) were on statins with the following associated factors: lower income 0.16 (0.03-0.77), secondary level vs. tertiary level education 0.21 (0.05-0.97) and having T2DM 4.69 (1.63-13.49).

CONCLUSION

Approximately 1 in 6 individuals with T2DM without CVD and 1 in 7 stroke survivors are prescribed statins in Ghana. Efforts to bridge this practice gap and improve access to life saving preventative medications for CVD risk reduction in low-and-middle income countries are urgently warranted.

Long-Term Mortality of Stroke Survivors in Parakou: 5-Year Follow-Up

BACKGROUND

The burden of stroke is high in Africa, but few data are available on the long-term outcome of strokes in this area.

AIM

We aimed to study the long-term outcome of stroke survivors in Parakou from 2012 to 2018.

METHODS OF STUDY

It was a cohort study and included 247 stroke patients admitted to the University Hospital of Parakou from January 1, 2012 to April 30, 2018. Each patient was followed up for at least 1 year. The modified RANKIN scale was used to evaluate patients. Verbal autopsy was used to ascertain the cause of death. The survival probability was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of mortality were estimated using the Cox proportional model and the hazard ratio (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals were determined. The data were analyzed using Stata Software.

RESULTS

The mean age was 58.1 ± 13.4 years with a sex ratio of 1.12. Among stroke survivors, the mortality was 10.1% at 3 months, 11.7% at 6 months, 15.4% at 1 year, 21.5% at 3 years, and 23.5% at 5 years. The probability of survival after a stroke was 66.5% at 5 years. Factors associated with mortality were age with adjusted HR 1.4 (1.2-1.7) for each 10 years, male sex with aHR 2.3 (1.2-4.6), history of hypertension with aHR 2.0 (1.0-4.1) and the severity of the initial neurological impairment National Institute of Health Stroke Scale with aHR 1.1 (1.0-1.2) for each 1 point. The main causes of death were recurrent stroke, infectious diseases, and cardiac disease. The proportion of patients with functional disability was 53.8% at 1 year. The quality of life was generally impaired in terms of physical health, personal environment, and finances.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term prognosis of stroke patients in Parakou is poor. It requires urgent action to reduce this burden.

Unraveling the risk factors for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage among West Africans

OBJECTIVE

To characterize risk factors for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) occurrence and severity among West Africans.

METHODS

The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) study is a multicenter case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Patients were adults ≥18 years old with CT-confirmed sICH with age-, sex-, and ethnicity-matched stroke-free community controls. Standard instruments were used to assess vascular, lifestyle, and psychosocial factors. Factors associated with sICH and its severity were assessed using conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and population-attributable risks (PARs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for factors.

RESULTS

Of 2,944 adjudicated stroke cases, 854 were intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Mean age of patients with ICH was 54.7 ± 13.9 years, with a male preponderance (63.1%), and 77.3% were nonlobar. Etiologic subtypes of sICH included hypertension (80.9%), structural vascular anomalies (4.0%), cerebral amyloid angiopathy (0.7%), systemic illnesses (0.5%), medication-related (0.4%), and undetermined (13.7%). Eight factors independently associated with sICH occurrence by decreasing order of PAR with their adjusted OR (95% CI) were hypertension, 66.63 (20.78-213.72); dyslipidemia, 2.95 (1.84-4.74); meat consumption, 1.55 (1.01-2.38); family history of CVD, 2.22 (1.41-3.50); nonconsumption of green vegetables, 3.61 (2.07-6.31); diabetes mellitus, 2.11 (1.29-3.46); stress, 1.68 (1.03-2.77); and current tobacco use, 14.27 (2.09-97.47). Factors associated with severe sICH using an NIH Stroke Scale score >15 with adjusted OR (95% CI) were nonconsumption of leafy green vegetables, 2.03 (1.43-2.88); systolic blood pressure for each mm Hg rise, 1.01 (1.00-1.01); presence of midline shift, 1.54 (1.11-2.13); lobar ICH, 1.72 (1.16-2.55); and supratentorial bleeds, 2.17 (1.06-4.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level control of the dominant factors will substantially mitigate the burden of sICH in West Africa.

Opportunities for intervention: stroke treatments, disability and mortality in urban Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

Given the high post-stroke mortality and disability and paucity of data on the quality of stroke care in Sub-Saharan Africa, we sought to characterize the implementation of stroke-focused treatments and 90-day outcomes of neuroimaging-confirmed stroke patients at the largest referral hospital in Tanzania.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH) in Dar es Salaam, July 2016-March 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults with new-onset stroke (<14 days), confirmed by head CT, admitted to MNH.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Modified Rankin scale (mRS) and vital status.

RESULTS

Of 149 subjects (mean age 57; 48% female; median NIH stroke scale (NIHSS) 19; 46% ischemic stroke; 54% hemorrhagic), implementation of treatments included: dysphagia screening (80%), deep venous thrombosis prophylaxis (0%), aspirin (83%), antihypertensives (89%) and statins (95%). There was limited ability to detect atrial fibrillation and carotid artery disease and no acute thrombolysis or thrombectomy. Of ischemic subjects, 19% died and 56% had severe disability (mRS 4-5) at discharge; 49% died by 90 days. Of hemorrhagic subjects, 33% died and 49% had severe disability at discharge; 50% died by 90 days. In a multivariable model, higher NIHSS score but not dysphagia, unconsciousness, or patient age was predictive of death by 90 days.

CONCLUSIONS

The 90-day mortality of stroke presenting at MNH is 50%, much higher than in higher income settings. Although severe stroke presentations are a major factor, efforts to improve the quality of care and prevent complications of stroke are urgently needed. Acute stroke interventions with low number needed to treat represent challenging long-term goals.

The dynamics of Poststroke depression among Ghanaians

OBJECTIVE

The very few published data on post-stroke depression (PSD) among indigenous Africans have covered its prevalence and predictors. We sought to evaluate the dynamics of PSD in a cohort of Ghanaian stroke survivors followed for 9 months after an acute stroke.

METHODS

Stroke survivors in this prospective cohort were adults aged >18 years with CT scan confirmed stroke, recruited into a randomized controlled trial to assess the feasibility of an mHealth technology-enabled, nurse guided intervention for blood pressure control. PSD was assessed a secondary outcome measure using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) at enrollment, months 3, 6, and 9. Those with a score of >7 points on HDRS were categorized as depressed. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of PSF.

RESULTS

Mean age of study participants was 55.1 ± 12.7 years with 65% being males. Ischemic strokes comprised 76.6% of study population. Prevalence of PSD at baseline was 78.6%, 43.6% at month 3, 41.1% at month 6 and 18.2% at month 9 (p < .0001). Factors significantly associated with PSD at baseline were higher NIH Stoke Scale score (adjusted OR 1.51, 95% CI: 1.03-2.23) and pain (adjusted OR 7.18, 95% CI: 1.52-33.89). NIHSS score (adjusted OR, 1.99, 95% CI: 1.12-3.52) as associated with PSD at month 9.

CONCLUSION

80% Ghanaian stroke survivors have early PSD declining to 20% at month 9. Stroke severity is the persistent factor associated with PSD at baseline and follow-up, and good be a target for screening and promptly treating PSD.

Prevalence, Trajectory, and Predictors of Poststroke Fatigue among Ghanaians

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Poststroke fatigue (PSF) is rife among stroke survivors and it exerts a detrimental toll on recovery from functional deficits. The burden of PSF is unknown in sub-Saharan Africa. We have assessed the prevalence, trajectory, and predictors of PSF among 60 recent Ghanaian stroke patients.

METHODS

Study participants in this prospective cohort (recruited between January 2017 and June 2017) were stroke survivors, aged greater than 18 years, with CT scan confirmed stroke of less than 1-month onset. PSF was assessed using the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) at enrollment, months 3, 6, and 9. Those with a score of greater than or equal to 4 points on FSS were categorized as "fatigued." A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of PSF at enrollment and at month 9.

RESULTS

Sixty-five percent (65%) of our sample were males with a mean age of 55.1 ± 12.7 years. In addition to all participants having hypertension, 85% had dyslipidemia and 25% had diabetes mellitus. Ischemic strokes comprised 76.6% of the study population. The prevalence of PSF was 58.9% at baseline and declined to 23.6% at month 9, P = .0002. Diabetes mellitus was significantly associated with PSF at baseline with an adjusted odds ratio of 15.12 (95% CI: 1.70-134.30), P = .01. However, at month 9, age greater than or equal to 65 years, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 7.02 (95% CI: 1.16-42.52); female sex, aOR of 8.52 (1.23-59.16), and depression, aOR of 8.86 (1.19-65.88) were independently associated with PSF.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 6 out of 10 Ghanaian stroke survivors experience PSF within the first month of stroke onset. PSF persists in approximately 1 out of 4 stroke survivors at 10 months after the index stroke. Further studies to elucidate the underlying mechanisms for PSF are required and adequately powered interventional multicenter trials are eagerly awaited to provide solid evidence base for the clinical management of PSF.

Recurrent Stroke in a Ghanaian Patient With Polycythemia

BACKGROUND

Polycythemia is a rare but important preventable cause of stroke with potential for recurrence when not identified and appropriately managed.

CASE PRESENTATION

This is a case of a 55-year-old Ghanaian who presented to our tertiary facility after a 2-month delay with a history of sudden onset of right-sided hemiparesis and expressive aphasia. He had suffered a previous stroke with left hemiparesis 2 years previously where hypertension and polycythemia were identified and treatment initiated. However, patient defaulted treatment for 18 months prior to the onset of recurrent stroke. A cranial CT scan revealed chronic right and subacute left middle cerebral artery territorial infarcts. Presenting hematocrit was 71%. Treatments initiated included high dose hydroxyurea, venesections, and dual antiplatelet therapy of Aspirin and Clopidogrel. He has since been discharged and remains stable under follow-up with moderate functional deficits- Modified Rankin score of 3/6 and the hematocrit of 54% at 3 months postdischarge.

CONCLUSIONS

Default of therapy for polycythemia is associated with a profound risk of recurrent strokes requiring patient education and support to prevent the devastating consequence of this modifiable but rare cause of stroke. This case report highlights the challenges of instituting secondary prevention for stroke in resource-limited settings.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate predicts incident stroke among Ghanaians with diabetes and hypertension

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa is currently experiencing a high burden of both chronic kidney disease (CKD) and stroke as a result of a rapid rise in shared common vascular risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes mellitus. However, no previous study has prospectively explored independent associations between CKD and incident stroke occurrence among indigenous Africans. This study sought to fill this knowledge gap.

Methods

A prospective cohort study involving Ghanaians adults with hypertension or type II diabetes mellitus from 5 public hospitals. Patients were followed every 2 months in clinic for 18 months and assessed clinically for first ever stroke by physicians. Serum creatinine derived estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were determined at baseline for 2631 (81.7%) out of 3296 participants. We assessed associations between eGFR and incident stroke using a multivariate Cox Proportional Hazards regression model.

Results

Stroke incidence rates (95% CI) increased with decreasing eGFR categories of 89, 60–88, 30–59 and <29 ml/min corresponding to incidence rates of 7.58 (3.58–13.51), 14.45 (9.07–21.92), 29.43 (15.95–50.04) and 66.23 (16.85–180.20)/1000 person-years respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) for stroke occurrence according to eGFR were 1.42 (0.63–3.21) for eGFR of 60-89 ml/min, 1.88 (1.17–3.02) for 30-59 ml/min and 1.52 (0.93–2.43) for <30 ml/min compared with eGFR of >89 ml/min. Adjusted HR for stroke occurrence among patients with hypertension with eGFR<60 ml/min was 3.69 (1.49–9.13), p = .0047 and among those with diabetes was 1.50 (0.56–3.98), p = .42.

Conclusion

CKD is dose-dependently associated with occurrence of incident strokes among Ghanaians with hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Further studies are warranted to explore interventions that could attenuate the risk of stroke attributable to renal disease among patients with hypertension in SSA.

•

We assessed association between incident stroke and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

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2631 participants stroke-free Ghanaian adults with hypertension or diabetes were followed for 14 months.

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There were 45 incident strokes.

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Incident stroke risk independently increased with declining eGFR.

Risk factors for stroke occurrence in a low HIV endemic West African country: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

HIV infection is an emerging vascular risk factor associated with stroke occurrence. The weight of evidence from sub-Saharan Africa in support of this has accrued from countries with high HIV prevalence. Our objective was to assess the contribution of HIV sero-positivity to the occurrence and outcomes of stroke in a West African country with low HIV prevalence.

METHODS

A case-control study design conducted at a tertiary medical center in Ghana involved in the Stroke Investigative Research & Educational Networks (SIREN) epidemiological study. Stroke cases were adults (aged ≥18 years) with CT or MRI confirmed stroke and stroke-free controls were age-matched and recruited from communities in the catchment areas of cases. Standard instruments were used to assess vascular and lifestyle factors and serological screening for HIV antibodies was conducted for all study participants. Stroke patients were followed for in-patient mortality outcomes. Associations between HIV, demographic and vascular risk factors and stroke occurrence and outcomes were assessed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

We enrolled 540 stroke cases and 540 control subjects with a mean (± SD) age of 60.8 ± 15.5 years (cases) and 60.0 ± 15.5 (controls). Among stroke cases, the frequency of HIV was 12/540 (2.2%, 95% CI: 1.3% - 3.6%) versus 15/540 (2.8%, 95% CI: 1.7% - 4.6%) among stroke-free controls, p = .70. However, the median (IQR) age of Persons Living with HIV (PLWH) with stroke was significantly lower at 46.5 (40-65.3) years versus 61.0 (50-74) years, p = .03 among HIV- stroke patients. Stroke among PLWHA was predominantly hemorrhagic in 7 out of 12 cases and ischemic in 5 of 12 with notable clustering of established factors such as hypertension, (100%), dyslipidemia, 83.3%, central obesity, 50.0%, diabetes mellitus, 33.3%, cardiac diseases, 8.3% in this group. None of the PLWH with stroke were receiving antiretroviral therapy.

CONCLUSION

We found no associations between HIV infection and stroke occurrence among Ghanaians. However a clustering of cardio-metabolic factors in the context of HIV may promote stroke occurrence in younger individuals.

Incident stroke among Ghanaians with hypertension and diabetes: A multicenter, prospective cohort study

Background

The burden of stroke among hypertensive and diabetic population in sub-Saharan Africa remains high. We sought to identify the risk factors associated with stroke occurrence in these high-risk population groups.

Methods

A prospective cohort study involving adults with hypertension and or type II diabetes mellitus at 5 public hospitals in Ghana who were stroke-free at enrollment. Patients were followed every 2 months at clinic for 18 months and assessed clinically for first ever stroke by physicians. We calculated crude incidence rates for stroke and assessed the factors associated with stroke occurrence using a multivariate Cox Proportional Hazards regression models.

Results

Of 3220 eligible participants with 3805 person-years of follow-up, there were 54 clinically confirmed new strokes. Incidence rate of stroke was 14.19 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI: 10.77–18.38], with rates among diabetics with hypertension being 16.64 [10.58–25.00], hypertension of 13.77 [9.33–19.64] and diabetes was 9.81 [3.59–21.74]. Two factors independently associated with stroke occurrence were previous cigarette smoking with adjusted HR (95% CI) of 2.59 (1.18–5.67) and physical inactivity, 1.81 (1.06–3.10). In secondary analysis, stage II hypertension compared with optimal BP was associated with aHR of 3.04 (1.00–9.27), p = .05 for stroke occurrence.

Conclusion

Incident stroke among Ghanaians with hypertension and diabetes is quite high. Stricter control of blood pressure and engaging in regular physical activities are strongly recommended to reduce the risk of strokes.

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The first prospective cohort study to assess factors associated with incident strokes among Ghanaians

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3220 participants stroke free adults with hypertension or diabetes were followed for an average of 14 months

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There were 54 strokes with incidence rate of 14.19 events per 1000 person-years

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Patients with both diabetes with hypertension had highest stroke rates

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Previous cigarette smoking and physical inactivity were independently associated with incident strokes

Dominant modifiable risk factors for stroke in Ghana and Nigeria (SIREN): a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest incidence, prevalence, and fatality from stroke globally. Yet, only little information about context-specific risk factors for prioritising interventions to reduce the stroke burden in sub-Saharan Africa is available. We aimed to identify and characterise the effect of the top modifiable risk factors for stroke in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) study is a multicentre, case-control study done at 15 sites in Nigeria and Ghana. Cases were adults (aged ≥18 years) with stroke confirmed by CT or MRI. Controls were age-matched and gender-matched stroke-free adults (aged ≥18 years) recruited from the communities in catchment areas of cases. Comprehensive assessment for vascular, lifestyle, and psychosocial factors was done using standard instruments. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and population-attributable risks (PARs) with 95% CIs.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 28, 2014, and June 15, 2017, we enrolled 2118 case-control pairs (1192 [56%] men) with mean ages of 59·0 years (SD 13·8) for cases and 57·8 years (13·7) for controls. 1430 (68%) had ischaemic stoke, 682 (32%) had haemorrhagic stroke, and six (<1%) had discrete ischaemic and haemorrhagic lesions. 98·2% (95% CI 97·2-99·0) of adjusted PAR of stroke was associated with 11 potentially modifiable risk factors with ORs and PARs in descending order of PAR of 19·36 (95% CI 12·11-30·93) and 90·8% (95% CI 87·9-93·7) for hypertension, 1·85 (1·44-2·38) and 35·8% (25·3-46·2) for dyslipidaemia, 1·59 (1·19-2·13) and 31·1% (13·3-48·9) for regular meat consumption, 1·48 (1·13-1·94) and 26·5% (12·9-40·2) for elevated waist-to-hip ratio, 2·58 (1·98-3·37) and 22·1% (17·8-26·4) for diabetes, 2·43 (1·81-3·26) and 18·2% (14·1-22·3) for low green leafy vegetable consumption, 1·89 (1·40-2·54) and 11·6% (6·6-16·7) for stress, 2·14 (1·34-3·43) and 5·3% (3·3-7·3) for added salt at the table, 1·65 (1·09-2·49) and 4·3% (0·6-7·9) for cardiac disease, 2·13 (1·12-4·05) and 2·4% (0·7-4·1) for physical inactivity, and 4·42 (1·75-11·16) and 2·3% (1·5-3·1) for current cigarette smoking. Ten of these factors were associated with ischaemic stroke and six with haemorrhagic stroke occurrence.

INTERPRETATION

Implementation of interventions targeting these leading risk factors at the population level should substantially curtail the burden of stroke among Africans.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

The epidemiology of stroke in Africa: A systematic review of existing methods and new approaches

Accurate epidemiological surveillance of the burden of stroke is direly needed to facilitate the development and evaluation of effective interventions in Africa. The authors therefore conducted a systematic review of the methodology of stroke epidemiological studies conducted in Africa from 1970 to 2017 using gold standard criteria obtained from landmark epidemiological publications. Of 1330 articles extracted, only 50 articles were eligible for review grouped under incidence, prevalence, case-fatality, health-related quality of life, and disability-adjusted life-years studies. Because of various challenges, no study fulfilled the criteria for an excellent stroke incidence study. The relatively few stroke epidemiology studies in Africa have significant methodological flaws. Innovative approaches leveraging available information and communication technology infrastructure are recommended to facilitate rigorous epidemiological studies for accurate stroke surveillance in Africa.

Advancing stroke genomic research in the age of Trans-Omics big data science: Emerging priorities and opportunities

BACKGROUND

We systematically reviewed the genetic variants associated with stroke in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and examined the emerging priorities and opportunities for rapidly advancing stroke research in the era of Trans-Omics science.

METHODS

Using the PRISMA guideline, we searched PubMed and NHGRI- EBI GWAS catalog for stroke studies from 2007 till May 2017.

RESULTS

We included 31 studies. The major challenge is that the few validated variants could not account for the full genetic risk of stroke and have not been translated for clinical use. None of the studies included continental Africans. Genomic study of stroke among Africans presents a unique opportunity for the discovery, validation, functional annotation, Trans-Omics study and translation of genomic determinants of stroke with implications for global populations. This is because all humans originated from Africa, a continent with a unique genomic architecture and a distinctive epidemiology of stroke; as well as substantially higher heritability and resolution of fine mapping of stroke genes.

CONCLUSION

Understanding the genomic determinants of stroke and the corresponding molecular mechanisms will revolutionize the development of a new set of precise biomarkers for stroke prediction, diagnosis and prognostic estimates as well as personalized interventions for reducing the global burden of stroke.

Potential role of tele-rehabilitation to address barriers to implementation of physical therapy among West African stroke survivors: A cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

The greatest burden from stroke-related disability is borne by Low-and-Middle Income countries (LMICs) where access to rehabilitation after stroke is severely challenged. Tele-rehabilitation could be a viable avenue to address unmet rehabilitation needs in LMICs.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the burden of post-stroke physical deficits, rates of utilization of physiotherapy services, and perceptions of tele-rehabilitation among recent Ghanaian stroke survivors.

METHODS

Using a consecutive sampling strategy, 100 stroke survivors attending an outpatient Neurology clinic in a Ghanaian tertiary medical center were enrolled into this cross-sectional study. After collecting basic demographic data, clinical history on stroke type, severity and level of disability, we administered the validated 20-item Functional Independence Measure questionnaire to evaluate functional status of study participants and an 8-item questionnaire to assess participants' attitudes towards telemedicine administered rehabilitation intervention.

RESULTS

Mean±SD age of study participants was 57.2±13.3years of which 51.0% were males with a mean duration of stroke of 1.3±2.2years. 53% had Modified Rankin scores of ≥3, 57% were fully independent and only 27% reported utilizing any physiotherapy services. Barriers to access to physiotherapy included financial constraints due to cost of physiotherapy services and transportation as well as premature discharge from physiotherapy to avoid overburdening of available physiotherapy services. These factors led to the limited provision of rehabilitative therapy. Participants held positive views of the potential for tele-rehabilitation interventions (80-93%). However, while 85% owned mobile phones, only 35% had smart phones.

CONCLUSION

Despite, a high burden of residual disability, only about 1 out of 4 stroke patients in this Ghanaian cohort was exposed to post-stroke physiotherapy services, largely due to relatively high costs and limited health system resources. These Ghanaian stroke patients viewed the potential role of Tele-rehabilitation as positive, but this promising intervention needs to be formally tested for feasibility, efficacy and cost-effectiveness.

One-year disability, death and recurrence after first-ever stroke in a Black Afro-Caribbean population

Background Few data on stroke outcomes and no data on stroke recurrence are available in Black mono-racial population with high socio-economic status. Aims We investigated outcomes and stroke recurrence at one year in the Black Afro-Caribbean population of Martinique and examined potential predictors of poor prognosis and recurrence. Methods Patients from ERMANCIA II (Etude Réalisée en MArtinique et Centrée sur l'Incidence des Accidents vasculaires cérébraux), a Black population-based and prospective observational study, were followed up at 28-days, three months and one year post stroke. Stroke characteristics, survival, disability (modified Rankin Scale > 2), and stroke recurrence were assessed. A survival-based approach was used for time-to-event analysis, and multivariable regression analysis assessed the predictors of death, disability and stroke recurrence. Results Of 544 first-ever stroke patients, cumulative risks of death increased from 17.6% (95% confidence interval, 14.5-20.4) at 28 days to 22.8% (18.6-25.0) at three months and to 31.3% (27.4-34.6) at one year. Disability rates in survivors decreased from 43.7% (39.5-47.2) at 28 days to 35% (30.9-38.4) at three months and to 28.8% (24.9-32.1) at one year. Cumulative risks of recurrent stroke were estimated to 2.1% (0.9-2.9) at 28 days, 4.5% (2.7-6.1) at three months and 9.3% (6.1-11.6) at one year. Age (odds ratio (OR), 1.08 (1.05-1.10)), admission NIHSS (OR, 1.22 (1.17-1.29)), metabolic syndrome (OR, 2.07 (1.22-3.52)) and recurrence (OR, 5.06 (1.87-13.7)) were independent predictors of death or disability at one year. Conclusion Stroke Outcomes in Black Afro-Caribbean population with a high socio-economic status appear globally similar to outcomes reported in Caucasian population. After a first-ever stroke, the implementation of early programs of recurrence prevention seems crucial to reduce the risk of poor prognosis at one year.

Early Mortality and Associated Factors among Patients with Stroke Admitted to a Large Teaching Hospital in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a major cause of death worldwide and 85.5% of stroke deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries due to stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate correlates and predictors of 30-day mortality in stroke patients in urban Tanzania.

METHODS

A prospective 30-day follow-up study was conducted at the Muhimbili National Hospital, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We recruited all patients with stroke seen at the Emergency Medicine Department and medical wards. Patients underwent medical history and physical examination including full neurological examination. For those who met the criteria for the diagnosis of stroke according to the World Health Organization, further data were collected, including cholesterol, creatinine, fasting blood glucose, full blood picture, human immunodeficiency virus serology, and electrocardiogram. Patients were followed up at 30 days from the date of stroke onset. The date and the cause of death of those participants who died within 30 days of stroke onset were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 224 patients were recruited into the study, with follow-up data available on 186 (83.0%). At 30 days post stroke, 124 patients (66.7%) were still alive. Mortality was significantly higher among stroke patients who were over 65 years of age. Of the 62 who died, 54% died of aspiration pneumonia and 21% of septicemia. Patients with infection were 4.4 times more likely to die than thosewithout (P = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Poststroke mortality rates were high. Many deaths were potentially preventable.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Screening and Treatment in Adults with Hypertension in Rural Nigeria in the Context of a Health Insurance Program

Background

High blood pressure is a leading risk factor for death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of hypertension care provided within the Kwara State Health Insurance (KSHI) program in rural Nigeria.

Methods

A Markov model was developed to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and subsequent antihypertensive treatment for the population at-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within the KSHI program. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the KSHI scenario compared to no access to hypertension care. We used setting-specific and empirically-collected data to inform the model. We defined two strategies to assess eligibility for antihypertensive treatment based on 1) presence of hypertension grade 1 and 10-year CVD risk of >20%, or grade 2 hypertension irrespective of 10-year CVD risk (hypertension and risk based strategy) and 2) presence of hypertension in combination with a CVD risk of >20% (risk based strategy). We generated 95% confidence intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the reference scenario.

Results

Screening and treatment for hypertension was potentially cost-effective but the results were sensitive to changes in underlying assumptions with a wide range of uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the first and second strategy respectively ranged from US$ 1,406 to US$ 7,815 and US$ 732 to US$ 2,959 per DALY averted, depending on the assumptions on risk reduction after treatment and compared to no access to antihypertensive treatment.

Conclusions

Hypertension care within a subsidized private health insurance program may be cost-effective in rural Nigeria and public-private partnerships such as the KSHI program may provide opportunities to finance CVD prevention care in SSA.

Recent patterns and predictors of neurological mortality among hospitalized patients in Central Ghana

BACKGROUND

Although neurological disorders are projected to escalate globally in the coming decades, there is a paucity of enumerated data on the burden, spectrum and determinants of outcomes of adult neurological admissions in resource-limited settings, especially within sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the diversity, demography, and determinants of mortality among adult patients presenting with neurological disorders over a 6-year period in a tertiary medical referral institution in the Central belt of Ghana.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of data on neurological admissions and in-patient outcomes between 2008 and 2013 was undertaken. Data collected for analyses included age, gender, neurological diagnosis, documented comorbidities, duration of admission and vital status at discharge. Predictors of in-patient mortality were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox Proportional Hazards regression models.

RESULTS

The 6494 admissions with neurological disorders represented 15.0% of all adult medical admissions over the study period. Male-to-female ratio of admissions was 1.6:1.0 with a mean±SD age of 52.9±20 years. The commonest neurological disorders were Cerebrovascular, Infectious, Seizures/epilepsy, Alcohol-use and Spinal cord disorders representing 54.0%, 26.7%, 10.3%, 4.0% and 2.3% of admissions respectively. Despite the low national HIV prevalence of 2.0%, the frequency of HIV infection among patients with infectious disorders of the nervous system was 40.9%. Overall crude mortality rate for neurologic admissions was 30.6% being 39.1% and 33.9% for Infectious affectations of the nervous system and stroke respectively and 7.4% for seizure disorders. Probability of death was higher for females than males aHR (95% CI) of 1.53 (1.40-1.68) and increasing age aHR (95% CI) of 1.11 (1.06-1.17) for each 20-year increase in age.

CONCLUSION

Almost one in three patients admitted with neurological disease to a tertiary care center in Ghana died in the hospital, and the majority of these deaths were due to non-communicable conditions. Enhanced multi-dimensional public health disease prevention strategies and neurological inpatient care processes are warranted.

The burden of stroke in Africa: a glance at the present and a glimpse into the future

Objective

Information on the current burden of stroke in Africa is limited. The aim of this review was to comprehensively examine the current and projected burden of stroke in Africa.

Methods

We systematically reviewed the available literature (PubMed and AJOL) from January 1960 and June 2014 on stroke in Africa. Percentage change in age-adjusted stroke incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for African countries between 1990 and 2010 were calculated from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) model-derived figures.

Results

Community-based studies revealed an age-standardised annual stroke incidence rate of up to 316 per 100 000 population, and age-standardised prevalence rates of up to 981 per 100 000. Model-based estimates showed significant mean increases in age-standardised stroke incidence. The peculiar factors responsible for the substantial disparities in incidence velocity, ischaemic stroke proportion, mean age and case fatality compared to high-income countries remain unknown.

Conclusions

While the available study data and evidence are limited, the burden of stroke in Africa appears to be increasing.

Case-fatality and disability in the Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project cohort

Objectives

The burden of stroke on healthcare services in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is increasing. However, long‐term outcomes from stroke in SSA are not well described. We aimed to investigate case‐fatality and health outcomes for stroke survivors at 7‐ to 10‐year follow‐up.

Materials and methods

The Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project (TSIP) recruited incidence stroke cases between 2003 and 2006. We followed up cases in 2013, recording date of death in those who had died.

Results

Of 130 stroke cases included in this study, case‐fatality and date of death data were available for 124 at 7–10 years post‐stroke. Of these, 102 (82.3%) had died by 7 years post‐stroke. Functional disability, as measured by the Barthel index immediately post‐stroke, was a significant predictor of case‐fatality at seven‐year follow‐up with those with severe disability having an almost four‐fold increase in the odds of death compared with those with no, mild or moderate disability.

Conclusions

Case‐fatality rates are higher than reported in high‐income countries, with post‐stroke disability a significant predictor of death. Sustainable interventions to reduce post‐stroke disability in this setting should be investigated.

Rates and predictors of three-year mortality in older people in rural Tanzania

BACKGROUND

There are few data on mortality rates in the general elderly living in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to detail three-year mortality rates in a population of rural community-dwelling older adults in northern Tanzania.

METHODS

We performed a community-based study of 2232 people aged 70 years and over living in Hai district, Tanzania. At baseline, participants underwent clinical assessment for disability, neurological disorders, hypertension, atrial fibrillation and memory problems. At three-year follow-up mortality data were collected. Mortality rates were compared to UK estimates.

RESULTS

At follow-up, data were available for 1873 subjects (83.9%). Of those, 208 (11.1%, 95% CI 9.7-12.5) had died. The age-standardised mortality rate was 10.2% (95% CI 8.8-11.6). Age-standardised mortality rates were lower than estimated for the UK (13.9%). In Cox regression analysis, greater age, higher levels of functional disability, use of a walking aid, subjective report of memory problems, being severely underweight and being normotensive were significant predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Those who survive to old age in Tanzania appear to have relatively low mortality rates. Physical and cognitive disabilities were strongly associated with mortality risk in this elderly community-dwelling population. The association between blood pressure and mortality merits further study.

Early mortality and functional outcome after acute stroke in Uganda: prospective study with 30 day follow-up

Identification of early outcomes post stroke and their predictors is important in stroke management strategies. We prospectively analysed 30-day outcomes (mortality and functional ability) after stroke and their predictors among patients admitted within 7 days post event to a national referral hospital in Uganda. This was a prospective study of acute stroke patients consecutively enrolled between February and July 2014. Social demographics, clinical, laboratory, imaging characteristics, outcomes (all through 30 days), time of death were assessed using standardised questionnaires. Multiple regression was used to analyse the independent influence of factors on outcomes. Of 127 patients, 88 (69.3 %) had ischemic stroke and 39 (30.7 %) had hemorrhagic stroke. Eight (6.3 %) died within 7 days, 34 (26.8 %) died within 30 days, with 2/3 of deaths occurring in hospital. Two were lost to follow up. Of 91 survivors, 49 (53.9 %) had satisfactory outcome, 42 (46.1 %) had poor functional outcome. At multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality at 30 days were unconsciousness (GCS <9), severe stroke at admission and elevated fasting blood sugar. None of the patients with functional independence (Barthel index ≥60) at admission died within 30 days. Inverse independent predictors of satisfactory outcome at 30 days were older age, history of hypertension and severe stroke at admission. Acute stroke patients in Uganda still have high rates of early mortality and poor functional outcomes. Independent predictors of mortality and poor functional outcome were severe stroke at admission, unconsciousness, high fasting blood sugar, old age and history of hypertension.

Trends in stroke admission and mortality rates from 1983 to 2013 in central Ghana

BACKGROUND

Accumulating data based on model-derived estimates suggest rising rates of stroke in sub-Saharan Africa over the next several decades. Stroke is a leading cause of death, disability, and dementia worldwide. Directly enumerated hospital-based data on the longitudinal trajectory of stroke admissions and deaths in sub-Saharan Africa could help hospital administrators, public health officials, and government policy-makers with planning and utilization of scarce resources.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate 30-year trends in stroke admission and mortality rates in central Ghana.

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective analysis of data on stroke admissions and mortality at a tertiary referral hospital in central Ghana between 1983 and 2013. Rates of stroke admissions and mortality were expressed as stroke admissions or deaths divided by total number of hospital admissions or deaths respectively. Yearly crude case fatality from stroke was calculated and predictors of stroke mortality were determined using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

RESULTS

Over the period, there were 12,233 stroke admissions with equal gender distribution. The rate of stroke admissions increased progressively from 5.32/1000 admissions in 1983 to 13.85/1000 admissions in 2010 corresponding to a 260% rise over the period. Stroke mortality rates also increased from 3.40/1000 deaths to 6.66/1000 deaths over the 30-year period. The average 28-day mortality over the period was 41.1%. Predictors of in-patient mortality were increasing age-aHR of 1.31 (1.16-1.47) for age>80years compared with <40years and admissions in 2000's compared with 1980's; aHR of 1.32 (1.26-1.39). Of the 1132 stroke patients with neuroimaging data: 569 (50.3%) had intracerebral hemorrhage, 382 (33.7%) had ischemic stroke and 181 (16.0) had sub-arachnoid hemorrhage. Patients with ischemic stroke were significantly older than those with ICH and SAH respectively.

CONCLUSION

Rates of stroke admission and mortality have increased steadily over the past three decades in central Ghana. More intensive risk modification and optimization of acute stroke care are urgently needed to stem these worrisome trends.

Levels of functional disability in elderly people in Tanzania with dementia, stroke and Parkinson's disease

BACKGROUND

Disability is associated with increasing age and poverty, yet there are few reliable data regarding disability amongst the elderly in low-income countries. The aim of this study was to compare disability levels for three of the most common neurological, non-communicable diseases: dementia, stroke and Parkinson's disease (PD).

METHODS

We performed a community-based study of people aged 70 years and over in 12 randomly selected villages in the rural Hai district of Tanzania. Participants underwent disability assessment using the Barthel Index, and clinical assessment for dementia, stroke and PD.

RESULTS

In a representative cohort of 2232 people aged 70 years and over, there were 54 cases of stroke, 12 cases of PD and estimated (by extrapolation from a sub-sample of 1198 people) to be 112 cases of dementia. People with stroke were the most disabled, with 62.9% having moderate or severe disability. Levels of moderate or severe disability were 41.2% in people with dementia and 50.0% in people with PD. However, the higher prevalence of dementia meant that, at a population level, it was associated with similar levels of disability as stroke, with 18.5% of 249 people identified as having moderate or severe disability having dementia, compared to 13.7% for stroke and 2.4% for PD.

CONCLUSIONS

Levels of disability from these conditions is high and is likely to increase with demographic ageing. Innovative, community-based strategies to reduce disability levels should be investigated.

Mortality rates in community-dwelling Tanzanians with dementia and mild cognitive impairment: a 4-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

we have previously conducted a community-based prevalence study of dementia in older adults living in the rural Hai district of Tanzania. The aim of this study was to record mortality rates at 4 years post-diagnosis, of those with dementia, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and no cognitive impairment.

METHODS

during Phase I of the prevalence study, 1,198 people aged 70 years and over were screened, and a stratified sample of 296 was assessed for the presence of dementia or MCI in Phase II. Seventy-eight people had dementia and 46 had MCI. Four years after diagnosis, we attempted to follow-up all those seen in Phase II and record all deaths.

RESULTS

of the 296, follow-up data were available for 287 (97.0%), including 77 with dementia and 45 with MCI. Of the 172 with no cognitive impairment, 165 (95.9%) were followed up and a sample of 89 people selected as representative of the background population. Forty-eight people with dementia (62.3%), 19 with MCI (42.2%) and 11 with no cognitive impairment (12.4%) had died at 4-year follow-up. After adjusting for the effects of age, gender and education, the hazard ratio was 6.33 (95% CI 3.19-12.58) for dementia and 3.57 (95% CI 1.64-7.79) for MCI relative to people with no cognitive impairment. Mortality rates were highest in those with vascular dementia.

CONCLUSION

dementia and MCI were associated with excess mortality relative to those with no cognitive impairment.

Disease burden of stroke in rural South Africa: an estimate of incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years

Background

In the context of an epidemiologic transition in South Africa, in which cardiovascular disease is increasing, little is known about the stroke burden, particularly morbidity in rural populations. Risk factors for stroke are high, with hypertension prevalence of more than 50%. Accurate, up-to-date information on disease burden is essential in planning health services for stroke management. This study estimates the burden of stroke in rural South Africa using the epidemiological parameters of incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life year (DALY) metric, a time-based measure that incorporates both mortality and morbidity.

Methods

Data from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system was utilised to calculate stroke mortality for the period 2007–2011. Dismod, an incidence-prevalence-mortality model, was used to estimate incidence and duration of disability in Agincourt sub-district and ‘mostly rural’ municipalities of South Africa. Using these values, burden of disease in years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and DALYs was calculated for Agincourt sub-district.

Results

Over 5 years, there were an estimated 842 incident cases of stroke in Agincourt sub-district, a crude stroke incidence rate of 244 per 100,000 person years. We estimate that 1,070 DALYs are lost due to stroke yearly. Of this, YLDs contributed 8.7% (3.5 – 10.5%) in sensitivity analysis). Crude stroke mortality was 114 per 100,000 person-years in 2007–11 in Agincourt sub-district. Burden of stroke in entire rural South Africa, a population of some 13,000,000 people, was high, with an estimated 33, 500 strokes occurring in 2011.

Conclusions

This study provides the first estimates of stroke burden in terms of incidence, and disability in rural South Africa. High YLL and DALYs lost amongst the rural populations demand urgent measures for preventing and mitigating impacts of stroke. Longitudinal surveillance sites provide a platform through which a changing stroke burden can be monitored in rural South Africa.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12883-015-0311-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Determinants of early case-fatality among stroke patients in Maputo, Mozambique and impact of in-hospital complications

The burden of stroke is increasing in developing countries that struggle to manage it efficiently. We identified determinants of early case-fatality among stroke patients in Maputo, Mozambique, to assess the impact of in-hospital complications. Patients admitted to any hospital in Maputo with a new stroke event were prospectively registered (n = 651) according to the World Health Organization's STEPwise approach, in 2005-2006. We assessed the determinants of in-hospital and 28-day fatality, independently of age, gender and education, and computed population attributable fractions. In-hospital mortality was higher among patients with Glasgow score at admission ≤ 6 (more than fivefold) or needing cardiopulmonary resuscitation during hospitalization (approximately 2.5-fold). Pneumonia and deep vein thrombosis/other cardiovascular complications during hospitalization were responsible for 19.6% (95% confidence interval, 5.3 to 31.7) of ischaemic stroke and 15.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.8 to 24.9) of haemorrhagic stroke deaths until the 28th day. Ischaemic stroke patients with systolic blood pressure 160-200 mmHg had lower in-hospital mortality (relative risk = 0.32, 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 0.78), and, for those with haemorrhagic events (haemorrhagic stroke), 28-day mortality was higher when systolic blood pressure was over 200 mmHg (hazard ratio = 3.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 11.51), compared with systolic blood pressure 121-140 mmHg. Regarding diastolic blood pressure, the risk was lowest at 121-150 mmHg for ischaemic stroke and at 61-90 mmHg for haemorrhagic stroke. Early case-fatality was mostly influenced by stroke severity and in-hospital complications. The allocation of resources to the latter may have a large impact on the reduction of the burden of stroke in this setting.