Survival by AIDS defining condition in rural Uganda

Prevalence of HIV-associated esophageal candidiasis in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Esophageal candidiasis (OC) is a common AIDS-defining opportunistic infection. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the occurrence of OC and other opportunistic infections among persons living with HIV (PLHIV). We sought to determine and compare the prevalence of OC in the ART and pre-ART era among PLHIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the African Journals Online databases to select studies in English and French reporting the prevalence of HIV-associated OC in SSA from January 1980 to June 2020. Reviews, single-case reports, and case series reporting < 10 patients were excluded. A random-effect cumulative meta-analysis was performed using STATA 16.0, and trend analysis performed using GraphPad Prism 8.0.

RESULTS

Thirteen eligible studies from 9 SSA countries including a total of 113,272 patients were qualitatively synthesized, and 9 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Overall pooled prevalence of HIV-associated OC was 12% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8 to 15%, I 2 = 98.61%, p <. 001). The prevalence was higher in the pre-ART era compared to the ART era, but not to statistical significance (34.1% vs. 8.7%, p = 0.095). In those diagnosed by endoscopy, the prevalence was higher compared to patients diagnosed by non-endoscopic approaches, but not to statistical significance (35.1% vs. 8.4%, p = .071). The prevalence of OC significantly decreased over the study period (24 to 16%, p < .025).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of OC among PLHIV in the ART era in SSA is decreasing. However, OC remains a common problem. Active endoscopic surveillance of symptomatic patients and further empirical studies into the microbiology, optimal antifungal treatment, and impact of OC on quality of life of PLHIV in SSA are recommended.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among HIV-positive adults in northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Despite the rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy services, 'loss to follow-up' is a significant public health concern globally. Loss to follow-up of individuals from ART has a countless negative impact on the treatment outcomes. There is, however, limited information about the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up in our study area. Thus, this study aimed to determine the incidence rate and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult HIV patients on ART.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using 484 HIV patients between January 30, 2008, and January 26, 2018, at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. All eligible HIV patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in this study. Data were entered into Epi-data Version 4.2 and analyzed using STATATM Version 14.0 software. The Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard estimator was used to estimate the hazard rate of loss to follow-up, and the log-rank test was used to compare the survival curve between different categorical variables. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard regression models were fitted to identify predictors of LTFU.

RESULTS

Among a cohort of 484 HIV patients at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, 84 (17.36%) were loss their ART follow-up. The overall incidence rate of loss to follow-up was 3.7 (95% CI 3.0, 5.0) per 100 adult-years. The total LTFU free time of the participants was 2294.8 person-years. In multivariable Cox-regression analysis, WHO stage IV (AHR 2.8; 95% CI 1.2, 6.2), having no cell phone (AHR 1.9; 95% CI 1.1, 3.4), and rural residence (AHR 0.6; 95% CI 0.37, 0.99) were significant predictors of loss to follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of loss to ART follow-up in this study was low. Having no cell phone and WHO clinical stage IV were causative predictors, and rural residence was the only protective factor of loss to follow-up. Therefore, available intervention modalities should be strengthened to mitigate loss to follow-up by addressing the identified risk factors.

Gastrointestinal Parasitic Infections and Immunological Status of HIV/AIDS Coinfected Individuals in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Parasitic infections of the gastrointestinal tract is one of the highest causes of morbidity and mortality among HIV infected individuals. This is due to the colonization of the intestinal tract by parasites influenced by induced enteropathy caused by HIV infection. CD+4 t-lymphocytes count is a marker of the immune status of HIV infected individuals.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the prevalence of gastrointestinal parasitic infections among HIV coinfected individuals in relation to their immunological status.

METHODS

CD+4 t-lymphocytes count was determined using fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) count system. Parasitological examination of faecal samples was conducted using direct wet mount, modified Z-N and Giemsa stain techniques. All prepared slides were examined under x10 and x40 objectives.

FINDINGS

Out of the 891 HIV seropositive participants on antiretroviral therapy that were studied, 641 (71.9%) had CD+4 counts equals to or greater than 500 cells/mm3. All other seropositive participants had CD+4 counts below 500 cells/mm3. Gastrointestinal parasitic infections were recorded in 187 (20.9%) seropositive participants, with females (n = 108, 12.1%) having more infections than males. Multiple gastrointestinal parasitic infections were recorded in 28 (3.1%) seropositive participants. Out of the 150 seronegative participants, 79 (52.7%) of them had at least one gastrointestinal parasitic infection. Female seronegative participants also accounted for higher infection rate (n = 42, 28.0%) than males (n = 37, 24.7%). Multiple infections were also recorded in 18 (12.0%) seronegative individuals. The overall prevalence rate of infection between both positive and negative individuals was 25.5%. There was statistical significant difference in the infections of Cryptosporidium parvum (p < 0.003), Cyclospora cayetanensis (p < 0.011) and Cystoisospora belli (p < 0.011) between HIV seropositive and HIV seronegative individuals. Also, there was statistical significant difference in the infections of hook worm (p < 0.002) and Trichuris trichiura (p < 0.020) between seronegative and seropositive individuals. Gastrointestinal parasitic infection rate was significantly higher among seropositive participants with CD+4 counts between 200 and 350 cells/mm3 (n = 109, 58.3%).

CONCLUSION

The study shows that HIV infected individuals continue to experience gastrointestinal infections even with antiretroviral treatment, especially those with CD+4 counts below 350 cells/mm3. Health care providers should prioritise routine screening of HIV patients for gastrointestinal parasites and provide prompt treatment. Antiparasitic drugs should also be provided as prophylaxis.

Comparing the impact of increasing condom use or HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among female sex workers

In many settings, interventions targeting female sex workers (FSWs) could significantly reduce the overall transmission of HIV. To understand the role HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) could play in controlling HIV transmission amongst FSWs, it is important to understand how its impact compares with scaling-up condom use-one of the proven HIV prevention strategies for FSWs. It is important to remember that condoms also have other benefits such as reducing the incidence of sexually transmitted infections and preventing pregnancy. A dynamic deterministic model of HIV transmission amongst FSWs, their clients and other male partners (termed 'pimps') was used to compare the protection provided by PrEP for HIV-negative FSWs with FSWs increasing their condom use with clients and/or pimps. For different HIV prevalence scenarios, levels of pimp interaction, and baseline condom use, we estimated the coverage of PrEP that gives the same reduction in endemic FSW HIV prevalence or HIV infections averted as different increases in condom use. To achieve the same impact on FSW HIV prevalence as increasing condom use by 1%, the coverage of PrEP has to increase by >2%. The relative impact of PrEP increases for scenarios where pimps contribute to HIV transmission, but not greatly, and decreases with higher baseline condom use. In terms of HIV infections averted over 10 years, the relative impact of PrEP compared to condoms was reduced, with a >3% increase in PrEP coverage achieving the same impact as a 1% increase in condom use. Condom promotion interventions should remain the mainstay HIV prevention strategy for FSWs, with PrEP only being implemented once condom interventions have been maximised or to fill prevention gaps where condoms cannot be used.

The evolution of respiratory Cryptosporidiosis: evidence for transmission by inhalation

The protozoan parasite Cryptosporidium infects all major vertebrate groups and causes significant diarrhea in humans, with a spectrum of diseases ranging from asymptomatic to life-threatening. Children and immunodeficient individuals are disproportionately affected, especially in developing countries, where cryptosporidiosis contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality in preschool-age children. Despite the enormous disease burden from cryptosporidiosis, no antiprotozoal agent or vaccine exists for effective treatment or prevention. Cryptosporidiosis involving the respiratory tract has been described for avian species and mammals, including immunocompromised humans. Recent evidence indicates that respiratory cryptosporidiosis may occur commonly in immunocompetent children with cryptosporidial diarrhea and unexplained cough. Findings from animal models, human case reports, and a few epidemiological studies suggest that Cryptosporidium may be transmitted via respiratory secretions, in addition to the more recognized fecal-oral route. It is postulated that transmission of Cryptosporidium oocysts may occur by inhalation of aerosolized droplets or by contact with fomites contaminated by coughing. Delineating the role of the respiratory tract in disease transmission may provide necessary evidence to establish further guidelines for prevention of cryptosporidiosis.

The Economic Consequences of AIDS mortality in South Africa

We quantify the impact of adult deaths on household economic wellbeing, using a large longitudinal dataset spanning more than a decade. Verbal autopsies allow us to distinguish AIDS mortality from that due to other causes. The timing of the lower socioeconomic status observed for households with AIDS deaths suggests that the socioeconomic gradient in AIDS mortality is being driven primarily by poor households being at higher risk for AIDS, rather than AIDS impoverishing the households. Following a death, households that experienced an AIDS death are observed being poorer still. However, the additional socioeconomic loss following an AIDS death is very similar to the loss observed from sudden death. Funeral expenses can explain some of the impoverishing effects of death in the household. In contrast, the loss of an employed member cannot. To date, antiretroviral therapy has not changed the socioeconomic status gradient observed in AIDS deaths.

Estimation of the HIV basic reproduction number in rural south west Uganda: 1991-2008

Background

The basic reproduction number, , is one of the many measures of the epidemic potential of an infection in a population. We estimate HIV over 18 years in a rural population in Uganda, examine method-specific differences in estimated , and estimate behavioural changes that would reduce below one.

Methods

Data on HIV natural history and infectiousness were collated from literature. Data on new sexual partner count were available from a rural clinical cohort in Uganda over 1991–2008. was estimated using six methods. Behavioural changes required to reduce below one were calculated.

Results

Reported number of new partners per year was 0 to 16 (women) and 0 to 80 (men). When proportionate sexual mixing was assumed, the different methods yielded comparable estimates. Assuming totally assortative mixing led to increased estimates in the high sexual activity class while all estimates in the low-activity class were below one. Using the “effective” partner change rate introduced by Anderson and colleagues resulted in estimates all above one except in the lowest sexual activity class. could be reduced below one if: (a) medium risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 70% and higher risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 93%, or (b) higher risk individuals reduce the partner acquisition rate by 95%.

Conclusions

The estimated depended strongly on the method used. Ignoring variation in sexual activity leads to an underestimation of . Relying on behaviour change alone to eradicate HIV may require unrealistically large reductions in risk behaviour, even though for a small proportion of the population. To control HIV, complementary prevention strategies such as male circumcision and HIV treatment services need rapid scale up.

Chronology and evolution of the HIV-1 subtype C epidemic in Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

To reconstruct the onset date and evolutionary history of the HIV-1 subtype C epidemic in Ethiopia - one of the earliest recorded subtype C epidemics in the world.

DESIGN

HIV-1 C env sequences with a known sampling year isolated from HIV-1 positive patients from Ethiopia between 1984 and 2003.

METHODS

Evolutionary parameters including origin and demographic growth patterns were estimated using a Bayesian coalescent-based approach under either strict or relaxed molecular clock models.

RESULTS

Bayesian evolutionary analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor date of 1965 with three distinct epidemic growth phases. Regression analysis of root-to-tip distances revealed a highly similar estimate for the origin of the clade. In addition, we reveal that the HIV-1C epidemic in Ethiopia has grown at a faster rate than the epidemic of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.

CONCLUSION

Reconstruction of the epidemic history in Ethiopia revealed that subtype C likely originated from either a single lineage or multiple descendents in the late 1960s or early 1970s where it grew exponentially throughout the mid-1970s and early 1980s, corresponding to a wave of urbanization and migration. In light of these findings, we suggest that subtype C strains were circulating at least a decade before previous estimates and the first recognition of symptomatic patients in Ethiopia. The timing of the Ethiopian epidemic is also in agreement with similar HIV-1 epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa.

Double standards in research ethics, health-care safety, and scientific rigour allowed Africa's HIV/AIDS epidemic disasters

Medical professionals practising double standards in research ethics, health-care safety and scientific rigour have allowed HIV epidemics to develop into national disasters in more than a dozen countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Researchers have followed HIV-positive Africans who did not know they were infected to study HIV-related morbidity, mortality and transmission to unsuspecting spouses and children. Public health managers do not warn Africans about risks to contract HIV from unsafe health care, and no African government has investigated any unexplained and suspected nosocomial HIV infection by tracing and testing people who attended suspected clinics. Researchers have avoided finding and talking about nosocomial HIV infections in countries with generalized epidemics. Rejecting double standards in health-care safety and scientific rigour may be essential to solve and stop Africa's HIV epidemic. Allowing competitive international trade in generic drugs to treat AIDS could mitigate some of the harm done by these double standards.

Early antiretroviral therapy mortality in resource-limited settings: what can we do about it?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Highly active antiretroviral therapy has markedly reduced HIV morbidity and mortality in industrialized countries. Expanded access to the 6.5 million individuals in immediate need of antiretroviral therapy using a public-health-systems approach is now promulgated as an international policy. An approximate 1.6 million individuals have already accessed antiretroviral therapy within programs in resource-poor settings.

RECENT FINDINGS

Early studies from these treatment programs confirm similar virologic and immunologic responses to antiretroviral therapy as were observed earlier in industrialized settings. While medium-term reductions in morbidity and mortality also parallel those reported from Europe and North America, of particular concern is the observation that mortality immediately after starting antiretroviral therapy in resource-poor settings is several-fold higher than that of similar patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in industrialized settings.

SUMMARY

This early mortality is multifactorial and is both a reflection of a very high preantiretroviral therapy mortality and a variety of factors such as comorbid conditions, late presentation, immune restoration disease, together with limited treatment and diagnostic options. Causes of mortality immediately prior to and during early antiretroviral therapy are reviewed and strategies to reduce mortality are identified and discussed.

Acceptability and effectiveness of chickpea sesame-based ready-to-use therapeutic food in malnourished HIV-positive adults

OBJECTIVE

A prospective descriptive study to assess acceptability and effectiveness of a locally made ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) in HIV-infected chronically sick adults (CSA) with mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) <210 mm or pitting edema.

METHODS

Sixty-three wasted AIDS adults were prescribed 500 g representing ~2600 kcal/day of locally made RUTF for three months and routine cotrimoxazole. Weight, height, MUAC, Karnofsky score and morbidity were measured at admission and at monthly intervals. The amount of RUTF intake and acceptability were assessed monthly.

RESULTS

Ninety-five percent (60/63) of the CSA that were invited to join the study agreed to participate. Mean daily intake in these 60 patients was 300 g/person/day (~1590 Kcal and 40 g of protein). Overall, 73.3% (44/60) gained weight, BMI, and MUAC. The median weight, MUAC and BMI gains after three months were 3.0 kg, 25.4 mm, and 1.1 kg/m(2), respectively. The intervention improved the physical activity performance of participants and 78.3% (47/60) regained sufficient strength to walk to the nearest health facility. Mortality at three months was 18.3% (11/60).

CONCLUSION

Locally made RUTF was acceptable to patients and was associated with a rapid weight gain and physical activity performance. The intervention is likely to be more cost effective than nutritional support using usual food-aid commodities.

Very early mortality in patients starting antiretroviral treatment at primary health centres in rural Malawi

OBJECTIVES

To report on the cumulative proportion of deaths occurring within 3 months of starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) and to identify factors associated with such deaths, among adults at primary health centres in a rural district of Malawi.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study: from June 2006 to April 2008, deaths occurring over a 3-month period were determined and risk factors examined.

RESULTS

A total of 2316 adults (706 men and 1610 women; median age 35 years) were included in the analysis and followed up for a total of 1588 person-years (PY); 277 (12%) people died, of whom 206 (74%) people died within 3 months of initiating ART (cumulative incidence: 13.0; 95% confidence interval: 11.3-14.8 per 100 PY of follow-up). Significant risk factors associated with early deaths included male sex, WHO stage 4 disease, oesophageal or persistent oral candidiasis and unexplained presumed or measured weight loss >10%. One in every 3 patients who either died or was lost to follow up had unexplained weight loss >10%, and survival in this group was significantly different from patients without this condition.

CONCLUSIONS

Seven in 10 individuals initiating ART at primary health centres die early. Specific groups of patients are at higher risk of such mortality and should receive priority attention, care and support.

Characteristics of HIV-1-associated Kaposi's sarcoma among women and men in South Africa

Despite the increase of HIV-1-associated Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), little is known about HIV-associated KS in the African setting, particularly among women. A descriptive study of the demographic, clinical, immunological and virological features of AIDS-associated KS from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa was undertaken. Consecutively, recruited patients were clinically staged; CD4/CD8 cell counts, HIV-1 viral loads and clinical parameters were evaluated. Of the 152 patients (77 male and 75 female) 99% were black. Females were significantly younger (P = 0.02) and had poorer disease prognosis (odds ratio [OR] = 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4-5.4, P = 0.003) and were more likely to have extensive cutaneous KS when compared with males (OR = 3.1, 95% CI = 1.4-6.7, P = 0.003). One-third of patients had coexisting HIV-related disease, most commonly tuberculosis, and these were more frequent in females (56.7 vs. 43.3%). In conclusion, HIV-associated KS in South Africans has an equal female-to-male ratio. Females are younger and have more severe disease than males.

Kaposi sarcoma: a continuing conundrum

Kaposi sarcoma (KS) remains a challenge. Its classic or Mediterranean form tends to be benign. In transplant recipients it may be less so. As part of the AIDS pandemic, of which it was an original defining component, it may be life-threatening. It is due to human herpesvirus-8, which is necessary but not sufficient to produce the disease. KS has a low prevalence in the general population of the United States and United Kingdom, with an intermediate rate in Italy and Greece, and a high one in parts of Africa. In Italy, hot spots include its southern regions, the Po River Valley, and Sardinia, possibly related to a high density of blood-sucking insects. An important challenge is to treat KS patients without immunocompromising them. The potential of effective anti-herpes virus therapy and the use of sirolimus in transplantation recipients have added new opportunities for KS prevention.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

At the conclusion of this learning activity, participants should be able to provide the most recent information about Kaposi sarcoma in the context in which it occurs. Its classic or Mediterranean form, its pattern in transplant recipients and others iatrogenically immunosuppressed, and its occurrence as a potentially life-threatening part of the AIDS pandemic will be stressed. Its etiology and transmission will be discussed in detail to facilitate understanding of Kaposi sarcoma and of human herpesvirus-8 infection in the general population of the United States and United Kingdom, in Italy and Greece, and in certain parts of Africa. Its therapy, including the concept of doing it without immunocompromising the patient, will be stressed. New opportunities for Kaposi sarcoma prevention will also be discussed.

Potential impact of antiretroviral chemoprophylaxis on HIV-1 transmission in resource-limited settings

Background

The potential impact of pre-exposure chemoprophylaxis (PrEP) on heterosexual transmission of HIV-1 infection in resource-limited settings is uncertain.

Methodology/Principle Findings

A deterministic mathematical model was used to simulate the effects of antiretroviral PrEP on an HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa under different scenarios (optimistic, neutral and pessimistic) both with and without sexual disinhibition. Sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the effect of uncertainty in input parameters on model output and included calculation of partial rank correlations and standardized rank regressions. In the scenario without sexual disinhibition after PrEP initiation, key parameters influencing infections prevented were effectiveness of PrEP (partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) = 0.94), PrEP discontinuation rate (PRCC = −0.94), level of coverage (PRCC = 0.92), and time to achieve target coverage (PRCC = −0.82). In the scenario with sexual disinhibition, PrEP effectiveness and the extent of sexual disinhibition had the greatest impact on prevention. An optimistic scenario of PrEP with 90% effectiveness and 75% coverage of the general population predicted a 74% decline in cumulative HIV-1 infections after 10 years, and a 28.8% decline with PrEP targeted to the highest risk groups (16% of the population). Even with a 100% increase in at-risk behavior from sexual disinhibition, a beneficial effect (23.4%–62.7% decrease in infections) was seen with 90% effective PrEP across a broad range of coverage (25%–75%). Similar disinhibition led to a rise in infections with lower effectiveness of PrEP (≤50%).

Conclusions/Significance

Mathematical modeling supports the potential public health benefit of PrEP. Approximately 2.7 to 3.2 million new HIV-1 infections could be averted in southern sub-Saharan Africa over 10 years by targeting PrEP (having 90% effectiveness) to those at highest behavioral risk and by preventing sexual disinhibition. This benefit could be lost, however, by sexual disinhibition and by high PrEP discontinuation, especially with lower PrEP effectiveness (≤50%).

Orphans and schooling in Africa: a longitudinal analysis

AIDS deaths could have a major impact on economic development by affecting the human capital accumulation of the next generation. We estimate the impact of parent death on primary school participation using an unusual five-year panel data set of over 20,000 Kenyan children. There is a substantial decrease in school participation following a parent death and a smaller drop before the death (presumably due to pre-death morbidity). Estimated impacts are smaller in specifications without individual fixed effects, suggesting that estimates based on cross-sectional data are biased toward zero. Effects are largest for children whose mothers died and, in a novel finding, for those with low baseline academic performance.

Is HIV-2- induced AIDS different from HIV-1-associated AIDS? Data from a West African clinic

BACKGROUND

Although AIDS is less frequent following HIV-2 than HIV-1 infection, it is unclear whether the clinical picture and clinical course of AIDS are similar in the two infections.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the pattern of AIDS-defining events, CD4 cell count at the time of AIDS diagnosis, survival from time of AIDS, and CD4 cell count near time of death in HIV-1 and HIV-2-infected patients.

METHODS

Adult patients with AIDS who attended the clinics of the MRC in The Gambia were enrolled. AIDS was diagnosed according to the expanded World Health Organization case definition for AIDS surveillance (1994).

RESULTS

Three hundred and forty-one AIDS patients with HIV-1 and 87 with HIV-2 infection were enrolled. The most common AIDS-defining events in both infections were the wasting syndrome and pulmonary tuberculosis. The median CD4 cell count at AIDS was 109 cells/microl in HIV-1 and 176 in HIV-2 (P = 0.01) and remained significantly higher in HIV-2 after adjustment for age and sex (P = 0.03). The median time to death was 6.3 months in HIV-1 and 12.6 months in HIV-2-infected patients (P = 0.03). In a multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex and CD4 cell count, the mortality rates of HIV-1 and HIV-2-infected patients were similar (P = 0.25). The median CD4 cell count near time of death was 62 and 120 cells/microl in HIV-1 and HIV-2-infected patients, respectively (P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-2 patients have a higher CD4 cell count at the time of AIDS, and a longer survival after AIDS. The mortality after an AIDS diagnosis is more influenced by CD4 cell count than HIV type.

Effect of tuberculosis preventive therapy on HIV disease progression and survival in HIV-infected adults

PURPOSE

To determine whether tuberculosis (TB) preventive therapies alter the rate of disease progression to AIDS or death and to identify significant prognostic factors for HIV disease progression to AIDS.

METHOD

In a randomized placebo-controlled trial in Kampala, Uganda, 2,736 purified protein derivative (PPD)-positive and anergic HIV-infected adults were randomly assigned to four and two regimens, respectively. PPD-positive patients were treated with isoniazid (INH) for 6 months (6H; n = 536), INH plus rifampicin for 3 months (3HR; n = 556), INH plus rifampicin plus pyrazinamide for 3 months (3HRZ; n = 462), or placebo for 6 months (n = 464). Anergic participants were treated with 6H (n = 395) or placebo (n = 323).

RESULTS

During follow-up, 404 cases progressed to AIDS and 577 deaths occurred. The cumulative incidence of the AIDS progression was greater in the anergic cohort compared to the PPD-positive cohort (p < .0001). Among PPD-positive patients, the relative risk of the AIDS progression with INH alone was 0.95 (95% CI 0.68-1.32); with 3HR it was 0.83 (95% CI 0.59-1.17); and with 3HRZ it was 0.76 (95% CI 0.52-1.08), controlling for significant baseline predictors. Among anergic patients, the relative risk of the AIDS progression was 0.81 (95% CI 0.56-1.15). Survival was greater in the PPD-positive cohort compared to the anergic cohort (p = .0001).

CONCLUSION

The number of signs or symptoms at baseline and anergic status are associated with increasing morbidity and mortality. Even though the tuberculosis preventive therapies were effective in reducing the incidence of TB for HIV-infected adults, their benefit of delaying HIV disease progression to AIDS was not observed.

Effectiveness and cost effectiveness of early and late prevention of HIV/AIDS progression with antiretrovirals or antibiotics in Southern African adults

As HIV/AIDS drugs are becoming more widely available in Southern Africa, we compared the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of different treatment options, using a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model based on published estimates of disease progression, treatment effectiveness and health care costs. Cost and outcome values were discounted. Quality of life was considered. Acceptability curves summarized uncertainties. Sensitivity analyses tested assumptions. Results showed that triple antiretroviral therapy (ARV) plus antibiotics would prolong life by 6.7 undiscounted years if provided 'late' (CD4 = 200 cells/microl) and by 9.8 years if provided 'early' (CD4 = 350 cells/microl). The incremental undiscounted costs per year of life gained, compared to no preventive therapy, were $17 for isoniazid plus cotrimoxazole started late, $244 for both antibiotics started early, $2454 for ARV plus antibiotics started late and $2784 for ARV plus both antibiotics started early. The discounted incremental costs per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained were, respectively, $29 saving, $254, $4937 and $3057. Late ARV plus both antibiotics was the strategy most likely to be cost effective if society was willing to pay more than $2000 per life year gained. Cost-effectiveness estimates were sensitive to discounting and assumed treatment costs but were less sensitive to assumed treatment effectiveness.

Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV-1 Transmission and AIDS Mortality in Resource-Limited Settings

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on the heterosexual spread of HIV-1 infection and AIDS mortality in resource-limited settings.

METHODS

A mathematic model of HIV-1 disease progression and transmission was used to assess epidemiologic outcomes under different scenarios of antiretroviral therapy, including implementation of World Health Organization guidelines.

RESULTS

Implementing antiretroviral therapy at 5% HIV-1 prevalence and administering it to 100% of AIDS cases are predicted to decrease new HIV-1 infections and cumulative deaths from AIDS after 10 years by 11.2% (inter-quartile range [IQR]: 1.8%-21.4%) and 33.4% (IQR: 26%-42.8%), respectively. Later implementation of therapy at endemic equilibrium (40% prevalence) is predicted to be less effective, decreasing new HIV-1 infections and cumulative deaths from AIDS by 10.5% (IQR: 2.6%-19.3%) and 27.6% (IQR: 20.8%-36.8%), respectively. Therapy is predicted to benefit the infected individual and the uninfected community by decreasing transmission and AIDS deaths. The community benefit is greater than the individual benefit after 25 years of treatment and increases with the proportion of AIDS cases treated.

CONCLUSIONS

Antiretroviral therapy is predicted to have individual and public health benefits that increase with time and the proportion of infected persons treated. The impact of therapy is greater when introduced earlier in an epidemic, but the benefit can be lost by residual infectivity or disease progression on treatment and by sexual disinhibition of the general population.

Corneo-conjunctival carcinoma in Uganda

AIMS

Since 1990, the incidence of conjunctival neoplasia has more than tripled in Uganda. It is known to be associated with exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation and to infection with the human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV). However, little is known about the most effective treatments. In this study, we report surgical outcomes among people with corneo-conjunctival squamous neoplasia in Uganda and investigate the role of HIV infection and other factors in the aetiology of the tumour.

METHODS

Country-wide enrolment of participants; removal and histology of suspect lesions; HIV counselling and testing; home visiting of participants to determine outcomes.

RESULTS

In 67 months between 1995 and 2001, 476 participants were enrolled (262 female, 214 male, median age 32 years). A total of 463 (97%) had eye-conserving removal of the lesion and 13 had other surgery. For 414, the histology was squamous neoplasia (184 invasive carcinoma, 230 intraepithelial). The prevalence of HIV infection in cases was 64%. In all, 96% were followed up for a median period of 32 months (range 0-81) after eye-conserving surgery during which time 13 (3.2%) had a recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgery resulted in a low recurrence rate during the follow-up period and had minimal complications. The prevalence of HIV among cases was higher than expected on the basis of data from the general population, although about a third of cases were HIV-negative and had normal CD4 counts. No new cofactors were identified.

Early mortality among adults accessing a community-based antiretroviral service in South Africa: implications for programme design

OBJECTIVES

To determine rates, risk factors and causes of death among patients accessing a community-based antiretroviral treatment (ART) programme both prior to and following initiation of treatment.

METHODS

All in-programme deaths were ascertained between September 2002 and March 2005 among treatment-naive patients enrolled into a prospective community-based ART cohort in Cape Town, South Africa.

RESULTS

Of 712 patients (median CD4 cell count, 94 cells/microl), 578 (81%) started triple ART a median of 29 days after enrollment. 68 (9.5%) patients died during 563 person-years of observation. The high pretreatment mortality rate of 35.6 deaths/100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI), 23.0-55.1) decreased to 2.5/100 person-years (95% CI, 0.9-6.6) at 1 year among those who received ART. However, within the first 90 days from enrollment, 29 of 44 (66%) deaths occurred among patients awaiting ART; these would not be identified by an on-treatment analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that risk of death (both pre-treatment and on-treatment) was independently associated with baseline CD4 cell count and World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stage; stage 4 disease was the strongest risk factor. Major attributed causes of death were wasting syndrome, tuberculosis, acute bacterial infections, malignancy and immune reconstitution disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Most early in-programme deaths occurred among patients with advanced immunodeficiency but who had not yet started ART. Programme evaluation using on-treatment analyses greatly underestimated early mortality. This mortality would be reduced by minimizing unnecessary in-programme delays in treatment initiation and by starting ART before development of WHO stage 4 disease.

Disease progression among untreated HIV-infected patients in South Ethiopia: implications for patient care

CONTEXT

The natural course of HIV disease progression among resource-poor patient populations has not been clearly defined.

OBJECTIVE

To describe predictors of HIV disease progression as seen at an outpatient clinic in a resource-limited setting in rural Ethiopia.

DESIGN

This prospective cohort study included all adult HIV patients who visited an outpatient clinic at Arba Minch hospital in South Ethiopia between January 30, 2003 and April 1, 2004. Clinical and hematologic measurements were done at baseline and every 12 weeks thereafter until the patient was transferred, put on antiretroviral therapy, was lost to follow-up, or died. Community agents reported patient status every month.

SETTING

A district hospital with basic facilities for HIV testing and patient monitoring.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Death, diagnosis of tuberculosis, and change in disease stage.

RESULTS

We followed 207 patients for a median duration of 19 weeks (range, 0-60 weeks). A total of 132 (64%) of them were in WHO stage III. The overall mortality rate was 46 per 100 person-years of observation (PYO). Mortality increased with advancing disease stage. Diarrhea, oral thrush, and low total lymphocyte count were significant markers of mortality. The incidence of tuberculosis was 9.9 per 100 PYO. Baseline history of easy fatigability and fever were strongly associated with subsequent development of tuberculosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality rate and the incidence of tuberculosis in our cohort are among the highest ever reported in sub-Saharan Africa. We identified oral thrush, diarrhea, and total lymphocyte count as predictors of mortality, and easy fatigability and fever as predictors of tuberculosis. The findings have practical implications for patient care in resource-limited settings.

Disease Progression Among Untreated HIV-Infected Patients in South Ethiopia: Implications for Patient Care

CONTEXT

The natural course of HIV disease progression among resource-poor patient populations has not been clearly defined.

OBJECTIVE

To describe predictors of HIV disease progression as seen at an outpatient clinic in a resource-limited setting in rural Ethiopia.

DESIGN

This prospective cohort study included all adult HIV patients who visited an outpatient clinic at Arba Minch hospital in South Ethiopia between January 30, 2003 and April 1, 2004. Clinical and hematologic measurements were done at baseline and every 12 weeks thereafter until the patient was transferred, put on antiretroviral therapy, was lost to follow-up, or died. Community agents reported patient status every month.

SETTING

A district hospital with basic facilities for HIV testing and patient monitoring.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Death, diagnosis of tuberculosis, and change in disease stage.

RESULTS

We followed 207 patients for a median duration of 19 weeks (range, 0-60 weeks). A total of 132 (64%) of them were in WHO stage III. The overall mortality rate was 46 per 100 person-years of observation (PYO). Mortality increased with advancing disease stage. Diarrhea, oral thrush, and low total lymphocyte count were significant markers of mortality. The incidence of tuberculosis was 9.9 per 100 PYO. Baseline history of easy fatigability and fever were strongly associated with subsequent development of tuberculosis.

CONCLUSION

The mortality rate and the incidence of tuberculosis in our cohort are among the highest ever reported in sub-Saharan Africa. We identified oral thrush, diarrhea, and total lymphocyte count as predictors of mortality, and easy fatigability and fever as predictors of tuberculosis. The findings have practical implications for patient care in resource-limited settings.

Surveillance methods to monitor the impact of HIV therapy programmes in resource-constrained countries

To monitor the collective national impact of initiatives to expand the availability of HIV therapy including antiretroviral treatment (ART) countries need to monitor the proportion of HIV-infected individuals who are receiving HIV therapy, whether morbidity is decreasing, and HIV-infected individuals are experiencing increased survival, and if there is an overall decrease in the number of individuals dying of HIV. However, in many resource-constrained countries these data are limited or unavailable. Morbidity surveillance relies primarily on AIDS case reporting, but severe under-reporting limits the usefulness of these data. A variety of AIDS case definitions are in use and case definitions do not concur with clinical staging definitions. Harmonizing AIDS case definitions with clinical staging, providing resources and training to improve reporting, and using other surveillance systems, such as tuberculosis programme data to monitor morbidity are urgently needed. A cohort analysis of individuals in ART programmes to follow the progress and outcomes of these patients longitudinally is important to monitor quality of care and impact. Because the rapid scale-up of ART programmes may result in HIV drug resistance, surveillance for drug resistant viruses is also required. Very few resource-constrained countries have well-functioning vital registration systems to assess mortality trends and cause-specific mortality. Alternative approaches to measuring mortality trends, such as sample vital registration with verbal autopsy should be considered. Strong commitments from governments, international organizations and other partners are needed to establish and strengthen the HIV morbidity and mortality monitoring surveillance systems.

The natural course of disease following HIV-1 infection in dar es salaam, Tanzania: a study among hotel workers relating clinical events to CD4 T-lymphocyte counts

Current HIV management guidelines are based on natural history studies from the developed world. Data on the similarity of the natural course of HIV-1 infection conflict with studies in the developing world. A cohort of 1887 hotel workers with no access to antiretroviral therapy was followed between 1990 and 1998 in Dar es Salaam through annual clinical evaluations and CD4+ T-lymphocyte (CD4 cell) count determinations. 196 (10.4%) were HIV-1 sero-prevalents; 133 (7.9%) were HIV-1 sero-incidents; and 1558 (82.6%) remained HIV seronegative. Follow-up duration was 13,719 and 82,742 months for HIV-1 seropositives and HIV seronegatives respectively. Clinical events occurred at median CD4 cell counts similar to those previously reported from the developed world, but death occurred at higher counts. Off-duty last 6 months, chronic diarrhoea and a faster CD4 cell count decline were associated with faster disease progression and death. In Tanzania HIV natural history is similar to that from the developed world and similar management guidelines could be employed.

Child survival in relation to mother's HIV infection and survival: evidence from a Ugandan cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the contribution of maternal survival and HIV status to child (under-5 years) mortality in a rural population cohort in South-west Uganda.

METHODS

Approximately 10 000 people residing in 15 neighbouring villages were followed between 1989 and 2000 using annual censuses and serological surveys to collect data on births, deaths, and adult HIV serostatus. Mother-child records were linked, child mortality risks (per 1000 births) and hazard ratios (HRs) for child mortality according to maternal HIV serostatus were computed, allowing for time-varying covariates.

RESULTS

A total of 3727 children were born, of whom 415 died during 14 110 child years of follow-up. Mother's HIV status at birth was ascertained unambiguously for 3004 children, of whom 218 were born to HIV-positive mothers. Infant mortality risk was higher for HIV seropositive than seronegative mothers (225 versus 53) as was child mortality risk (313 versus 114). Child mortality risk was also higher for mothers who died (571) than for surviving mothers (128). After controlling for child's age and sex, independent predictors of mortality in children were: mother's terminal illness or death (HR = 3.8); mother being HIV positive (HR = 3.2); child being a twin (HR = 2.0); teenage motherhood (HR = 1.7) and maternal absence (HR = 1.7).

CONCLUSION

Maternal survival and HIV status are strong predictors of child survival. The higher mortality in HIV-infected women compounds mortality risks for their children, regardless of children's HIV status. Programmes aimed at the welfare of children should take into account the independent effect of mothers' HIV and vital status.

Natural history of human immunodeficiency virus disease in southern India

There are few reports of the natural history of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection from Asia. In a retrospective analysis of 594 patients (72.9% male; baseline CD4 cell count, 216 cells/microL) receiving care at YRG Center for AIDS Research and Education, a tertiary HIV referral center in southern India, the mean duration of survival from serodiagnosis was 92 months. Ninety-three percent of the patients acquired infection through heterosexual contact. The most common acquired immune deficiency syndrome-defining illnesses were pulmonary tuberculosis (49%; median duration of survival, 45 months), Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (6%; median duration of survival, 24 months), cryptococcal meningitis (5%; median duration of survival, 22 months), and central nervous system toxoplasmosis (3%; median duration of survival, 28 months). Persons with a CD4 lymphocyte count of <200 cells/microL were 19 times (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.56-64.77) more likely to die than were those with CD4 cell count of >350 cells/microL. Patients who had > or =1 opportunistic infection were 2.6 times more likely to die (95% CI, 0.95-7.09) than were those who did not have an opportunistic infection. Antiretroviral therapy for patients with low CD4 lymphocyte counts improved the odds of survival (odds ratio, 5.37; 95% CI, 1.82-15.83).

HIV-1 infection in rural Africa: is there a difference in median time to AIDS and survival compared with that in industrialized countries?

OBJECTIVES

To describe the progression times of HIV-1 infection from seroconversion to AIDS and to death, and time from first developing AIDS to death in rural Uganda. Also, to describe the proportion of individuals within the cohort dying with AIDS and the CD4 lymphocyte count before death.

DESIGN

A prospective, longitudinal, population-based cohort.

METHODS

Since 1990, 107 HIV-prevalent cases, 168 incident cases and 235 HIV-seronegative controls have been recruited into a cohort in rural Uganda. Participants are recruited from the general population and they are reviewed routinely every 3 months and at other times when ill.

RESULTS

The median time from seroconversion to death was 9.8 years. Age over 40 years at seroconversion was associated with more rapid progression (P < 0.001, log rank test). For the first 4 years of the study, HIV contributed little to the death rates in the HIV incident cases, but after 5 years, the contribution of HIV became greater and was particularly marked in the oldest age group. Survival rates in the cohort were similar to those in the general population. The median time from seroconversion to AIDS was 9.4 years and from AIDS to death was 9.2 months. Of those infected with HIV-1, 80% died with AIDS and 20% had a CD4 count < 10 x 106 cells/l.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival with HIV-1 infection is similar in Africa to industrialized countries before the use of antiretroviral therapy; when they do die, many of those in Africa are severely immunosuppressed and most have clinical features of AIDS.