Spatial-temporal model of haemorrhagic disease in white-tailed deer in south-east USA, 1983 to 2000

Evaluating the Interaction of Emerging Diseases on White-Tailed Deer Populations Using an Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Disease co-occurrence in wildlife populations is common yet understudied. In the case of disease-caused mortality, the mortality attributed to one disease has the potential to buffer populations against subsequent alternative disease outbreaks by reducing populations and thus contacts needed to sustain disease transmission. However, substantial disease-driven population declines may also prevent populations from recovering, leading to localized extinctions. Hemorrhagic disease (HD), a vector-transmitted, viral disease in white-tailed deer (WTD), similar to chronic wasting disease (CWD), a prion disease, has increased in frequency and distribution in the United States. However, unlike CWD, which progresses slowly, HD can cause mortality only days after infection. Hemorrhagic disease outbreaks can result in substantial localized mortality events in WTD near vector habitats such as wetlands and may reduce local deer densities and consequent CWD transmission. The objective of our study was to evaluate the potential for HD outbreaks to buffer CWD risk where the diseases co-occur. Using an agent-based modeling approach, we found that frequent, intense HD outbreaks have the potential to mitigate CWD risk, especially if those outbreaks occur shortly after CWD introduction. However, HD outbreaks that do not result in substantial WTD mortality are unlikely to impact CWD or WTD population dynamics. Severe HD outbreaks may reduce CWD cases and could present an opportunity for managers to boost CWD control initiatives in a post-HD outbreak year.

Culicoides-borne Orbivirus epidemiology in a changing climate

Orbiviruses are of significant importance to the health of wildlife and domestic animals worldwide; the major orbiviruses transmitted by multiple biting midge (Culicoides) species include bluetongue virus, epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus, and African horse sickness virus. The viruses, insect vectors, and hosts are anticipated to be impacted by global climate change, altering established Orbivirus epidemiology. Changes in global climate have the potential to alter the vector competence and extrinsic incubation period of certain biting midge species, affect local and long-distance dispersal dynamics, lead to range expansion in the geographic distribution of vector species, and increase transmission period duration (earlier spring onset and later fall transmission). If transmission intensity is associated with weather anomalies such as droughts and wind speeds, there may be changes in the number of outbreaks and periods between outbreaks for some regions. Warmer temperatures and changing climates may impact the viral genome by facilitating reassortment and through the emergence of novel viral mutations. As the climate changes, Orbivirus epidemiology will be inextricably altered as has been seen with recent outbreaks of bluetongue, epizootic hemorrhagic disease, and African horse sickness outside of endemic areas, and requires interdisciplinary teams and approaches to assess and mitigate future outbreak threats.

The Effects of Light Wavelength and Trapping Habitat on Surveillance of Culicoides Biting Midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Alabama

In the southeastern United States, biting midges transmit agents of hemorrhagic diseases that are enzootic among white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann), Artiodactyla: Cervidae). Culicoides sonorensis Wirth and Jones (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), the only confirmed vector of epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) and bluetongue virus (BTV) in the United States, is rarely collected in the Southeast, implying that other Culicoides Latreille species act as vectors. Despite multiple surveillance studies, the influence of trapping habitat and light wavelength on Culicoides sampling has yet to be investigated in Alabama. This study sampled Culicoides species at a deer research facility using CO2-baited CDC light traps with three distinct wavelengths. Traps were rotated within three habitats to examine impacts of habitat type and light wavelength on Culicoides abundance and parity status. For most species, midges were more abundant in a pine forest compared to a hardwood-forest riparian zone or a lightly wooded area adjacent to a seasonal pond. The pine forest generally had negative effects on parity status, suggesting that most females in this habitat were foraging for their first bloodmeal. Ultraviolet (UV) black-light (350 nm-360 nm) attracted more midges than incandescent light or UV LED light (385 nm-395 nm), but wavelength had less of an effect on parity than habitat. This study indicates that light wavelength and habitat significantly influence Culicoides sampling outcomes, and that when collecting parous females is desired (e.g., EHDV/BTV surveillance), targeting areas around oviposition sites may be a better strategy than trapping where midges are most abundant.

SPATIAL VARIATION OF WHITE-TAILED DEER (ODOCOILEUS VIRGINIANUS) POPULATION IMPACTS AND RECOVERY FROM EPIZOOTIC HEMORRHAGIC DISEASE

Epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) is the most significant source of viral disease-related mortality in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the US. Deer mortality from EHD has increased in the state of Michigan, US, since 2006, with the largest outbreak occurring in 2012. The 2012 outbreak provided an opportunity to evaluate how this disease affected EHD-related mortality in deer populations at a spatial scale typical of that expected for the greatest disease risk. Our objectives were to quantify the population impacts and spatial extent of EHD associated with areas of disease risk for deer populations and to determine how populations recovered over time following localized EHD impacts. We estimated the annual local abundance of deer for 5 yr immediately following a recent EHD outbreak. Because proximity to wetlands may affect EHD occurrence, we surveyed deer at varying distances (about 1 km and 5 km) from a riparian corridor to determine spatial variation in population impacts. Further, we assessed differences in deer abundance for sites affected and unaffected by EHD. Abundance estimates were lower along transects near the riparian corridor only in the affected area, reflecting EHD mortality associated with wetlands. The only change in abundance over time was a significant increase in the riparian strata in the EHD-affected site.

Tracking Community Timing: Pattern and Determinants of Seasonality in Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Northern Florida

Community dynamics are embedded in hierarchical spatial–temporal scales that connect environmental drivers with species assembly processes. Culicoides species are hematophagous arthropod vectors of orbiviruses that impact wild and domestic ruminants. A better sense of Culicoides dynamics over time is important because sympatric species can lengthen the seasonality of virus transmission. We tested a putative departure from the four seasons calendar in the phenology of Culicoides and the vector subassemblage in the Florida panhandle. Two years of weekly abundance data, temporal scales, persistence and environmental thresholds were analyzed using a tripartite Culicoides β-diversity based modeling approach. Culicoides phenology followed a two-season regime and was explained by stream flow and temperature, but not rainfall. Species richness fit a nested pattern where the species recruitment was maximized during spring months. Midges were active year-round, and two suspected vectors species, Culicoides venustus and Culicoides stellifer, were able to sustain and connect the seasonal modules. Persistence suggests that Orbivirus maintenance does not rely on overwintering and that viruses are maintained year-round, with the seasonal dynamics resembling subtropical Culicoides communities with temporal-overlapping between multivoltine species. Viewing Culicoides-borne orbiviruses as a time-sensitive community-based issue, our results help to recommend when management operations should be delivered.

The role of drought as a determinant of hemorrhagic disease in the eastern United States

Bluetongue virus and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (HD) virus are globally distributed, vector-borne viruses that infect and cause disease in domestic and wild ruminant species. The forces driving increases in resulting HD may be linked to weather conditions and increasing severity has been noted in northerly latitudes. We evaluated the role of drought severity in both space and time on changes in HD reports across the eastern United States for a recent 15 year period. The objectives of this study were to: (a) develop a spatiotemporal model to evaluate if drought severity explains changing patterns of HD presence; and (b) determine whether this potential risk factor varies in importance over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Historic data (2000-2014) from an annual HD presence-absence survey conducted by the Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study and from the United States Drought Monitor were used for this analysis. For every county in 23 states and for each of 15 years, data were based on reported drought status for August, wetland cover, the physiographic region, and the status of HD in the previous year. We used a generalized linear mixed model to explain HD presence and evaluated spatiotemporal predictors across the region. We found that drought severity was a significant predictor of HD presence and the significance of this relationship was dependent on latitude. In more northerly latitudes, where immunological naivety is most likely, we demonstrated the increasing strength of drought severity as a determinant of reported HD and established the importance of variation in drought severity as a risk factor over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Our research provides spatially explicit evidence for the link between climate forces and emerging disease patterns across latitude for a globally distributed disease.

Transmission and Epidemiology of Bluetongue and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease in North America: Current Perspectives, Research Gaps, and Future Directions

Bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) are arthropod-transmitted viruses in the genus Orbivirus of the family Reoviridae. These viruses infect a variety of domestic and wild ruminant hosts, although the susceptibility to clinical disease associated with BTV or EHDV infection varies greatly among host species, as well as between individuals of the same species. Since their initial detection in North America during the 1950s, these viruses have circulated in endemic and epidemic patterns, with occasional incursions to more northern latitudes. In recent years, changes in the pattern of BTV and EHDV infection and disease have forced the scientific community to revisit some fundamental areas related to the epidemiology of these diseases, specifically in relation to virus-vector-host interactions and environmental factors that have potentially enabled the observed changes. The aim of this review is to identify research and surveillance gaps that obscure our understanding of BT and EHD in North America.

When more transmission equals less disease: reconciling the disconnect between disease hotspots and parasite transmission

The assumed straightforward connection between transmission intensity and disease occurrence impacts surveillance and control efforts along with statistical methodology, including parameter inference and niche modeling. Many infectious disease systems have the potential for this connection to be more complicated-although demonstrating this in any given disease system has remained elusive. Hemorrhagic disease (HD) is one of the most important diseases of white-tailed deer and is caused by viruses in the Orbivirus genus. Like many infectious diseases, the probability or severity of disease increases with age (after loss of maternal antibodies) and the probability of disease is lower upon re-infection compared to first infection (based on cross-immunity between virus strains). These broad criteria generate a prediction that disease occurrence is maximized at intermediate levels of transmission intensity. Using published US field data, we first fit a statistical model to predict disease occurrence as a function of seroprevalence (a proxy for transmission intensity), demonstrating that states with intermediate seroprevalence have the highest level of case reporting. We subsequently introduce an independently parameterized mechanistic model supporting the theory that high case reporting should come from areas with intermediate levels of transmission. This is the first rigorous demonstration of this phenomenon and illustrates that variation in transmission rate (e.g. along an ecologically-controlled transmission gradient) can create cryptic refuges for infectious diseases.