Stroke Mortality in Kenya's Public Tertiary Hospitals: A Prospective Facility-Based Study

In-hospital mortality and its associated factors among hospitalized stroke patients at public hospitals of Eastern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Stroke is rapidly developing clinical signs of focal/ global disturbance of cerebral function, with symptoms lasting more than 24 h and leading to death. Data showed that stroke deaths in Ethiopia reached nearly seven percent of total deaths. Despite this report, there is a paucity of investigations about the problem.

OBJECTIVE

To determine in-hospital mortality and its associated factors among hospitalized stroke patients in Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized University Hospital and Jugal General Hospital, eastern Ethiopia from September 2016-August 2022 G.C.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted among hospitalized stroke patients. A sample size of 395 medical records was selected from a total of 564 stroke patients by a simple random sampling technique. The data was analyzed by SPSS version 26 using bivariable and multivariable cox-regression models. A p-value of 0.05 and less at a 95% confidence interval was used to establish a statistically significant association.

RESULTS

Of the total, 109 (27.6%) died in the hospital while 57.2% and 15.2% of them were discharged with improvement and against medical advice, respectively. Age greater than 65 (AHR = 4.71, 95% CI = 1.11-19.96), creatinine level > 1.2 mg/dl (AHR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.0-2.39), and co-morbidity with atrial fibrillation (AHR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.0-2.21) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

In-hospital mortality was found in more than a quarter of stroke patients. Mortality was more likely increased among the patients with age > 65, serum creatinine level > 1.2 mg/dl, and atrial fibrillation. Hence, these high-risk patients need to be monitored.

Cost-effectiveness of group medical visits and microfinance interventions versus usual care to manage hypertension in Kenya: a secondary modelling analysis of data from the Bridging Income Generation with Group Integrated Care (BIGPIC) trial

BACKGROUND

The Bridging Income Generation with Group Integrated Care (BIGPIC) trial in rural Kenya showed that integrating usual care with group medical visits or microfinance interventions reduced systolic blood pressure and cardiovascular risk in participants. We aimed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of three BIGPIC interventions for a modelled cohort and by sex, as well as the cost of implementing these interventions.

METHODS

For this analysis, we used data collected during the BIGPIC trial, a four-group, cluster-randomised trial conducted in the western Kenyan catchment area of the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare. BIGPIC enrolled participants from 24 rural health facilities in rural western Kenya aged 35 years or older with either increased blood pressure or diabetes. Participants were assigned to receive either usual care, group medical visits, microfinance, or a combination of group medical visits and microfinance (GMV-MF). Our model estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of the three BIGPIC interventions via seven health states (ie, a hypertensive state, five chronic cardiovascular-disease states, and a death state) by simulating transitions between health states for a hypothetical cohort of individuals with hypertension on the basis of QRISK3 scores. In every cycle, participants accrued costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with their health state. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for the entire modelled cohort and by sex by dividing the incremental cost by the incremental effectiveness of the next most expensive intervention. The main outcome of this analysis was ICERs for each intervention evaluated. This analysis is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02501746).

FINDINGS

Between Feb 6, 2017, and Dec 29, 2019, 2890 people were recruited to the BIGPIC trial. 2020 (69·9%) of 2890 participants were female and 870 (30·1%) were male. At baseline, mean QRISK3 score was 11·5 (95% CI 11·1-11·9) for the trial population, 11·9 (11·5-12·2) for male participants, and 11·3 (11·0-11·6) for female participants. For the population of Kenya, group medical visits were estimated to cost US$7 more per individual than usual care and result in 0·005 more DALYs averted (ICER $1455 per DALY averted). Microfinance was estimated to cost $19 more than group medical visits but was only estimated to avert 0·001 more DALYs. Relative to group medical visits, GMV-MF was estimated to cost $29 more and avert 0·009 more DALYs ($3235 per DALY averted). Relative to usual care, GMV-MF was estimated to cost $37 more and avert 0·014 more DALYs ($2601 per DALY averted). In the first year of the intervention, usual care was estimated to be the least expensive intervention to implement ($87 per participant; $10 238 per health-facility catchment area [HFCA]), then group medical visits ($99 per participant; $12 268 per HFCA), then microfinance ($120 per participant; $14 172 per HFCA), with GMV-MF estimated to be the most expensive intervention to implement ($139 per participant; $16 913 per HFCA).

INTERPRETATION

Group medical visits and GMV-MF were estimated to be cost-effective strategies to improve blood-pressure control in rural Kenya. However, which intervention to pursue depends on resource availability. Policy makers should consider these factors, in addition to sex differences in programme effectiveness, when selecting optimal implementation strategies.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

A systematic review of the epidemiology and the public health implications of stroke in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

With approximately 11 million strokes occurring annually worldwide, and over 6.5 million deaths annually, stroke has made its place as one of the major killers in the world. Although developing countries make up more than 4/5 of the global stroke burden, well-grounded information on stroke epidemiology remains lacking there.

AIMS

This systematic review study aimed to provide a synthesis of studies on the incidence and prevalence of stroke among adults in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), subsequently deduce the associated risk factors and public health implications (mortality rates and economic costs) of the disease on the population of this region.

METHODS

A systematic review of studies carried out in the region and published on PUBMED. Eligibility criteria were established using the PEO (Population/Patient, Exposure, Outcome) format. Research articles investigating either (or all) of the following: ischemic or haemorrhagic stroke, incidence, prevalence, and risk factors of stroke in adults (≥ 18 years old), in at least one region of SSA were included. Exclusion criteria comprised studies involving populations younger than 18 years old, research conducted outside the designated research region, and articles inaccessible in full text. The PRISMA guidelines were used for the search strategy.

RESULTS

Fifty-two studies were included review. Among them, over 11 studies investigated the prevalence of the disease. Some older studies within the continent (Nigeria, 2011) showed a prevalence of 1.3 per 100 while more recent studies (Zambia, 2021) showed a prevalence of 4.3 per 1000. The highest prevalence noted in this region was in Madagascar (2017) with 48.17 per 100, while the lowest was recorded in (Zimbabwe, 2017) with 0.61 per 100. The study in Tanzania showed a crude incidence of 94·5 per 100 000 (76·0-115·0) while the study in Ghana in 2018 showed an incidence of 14.19 events per 1000 person-years [10.77-18.38]. The identified risk factors included hypertension, diabetes, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, poor diets (more salt, less vegetables), dyslipidaemia, HIV/AIDS co-infection, heart disease (cardiomyopathies, cardiac arrhythmias), obesity, previous stroke and/or family history of stroke. Over 21 studies investigated the mortality rates due to stroke in SSA, with most of the studies being in West Africa. These studies revealed mortality rates as high as 43.3% in Ghana, and as low as 10.9% in Cameroon. Few studies reported on the economic costs of stroke in the region; two in Benin, two in Nigeria and one in Tanzania.

CONCLUSION

The increasing incidence/prevalence, lifestyle factors and interactions with other diseases, including major communicable diseases, stroke is becoming a pressing public health problem for SSA. Reducing the incidence of stroke in Africa will surely lower mortality, morbidity, disability, and the neurological as well as cognitive aftereffects of stroke, as is clear from the experience of higher-income nations. We recommend a collective intervention involving the governments of nations, international organizations, civil society, and the private sector for greater impact and sustainable outcomes reducing the epidemiology and implications of stroke in SSA.

30-day in-hospital stroke case fatality and significant risk factors in sub-Saharan-Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Existing studies investigating 30-day in-hospital stroke case fatality rates in sub-Saharan Africa have produced varying results, underscoring the significance of obtaining precise and reliable estimations for this indicator. Consequently, this study aimed to conduct a systematic review and update of the current scientific evidence regarding 30-day in-hospital stroke case fatality and associated risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Medline/PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), APA PsycNet (encompassing PsycINFO and PsychArticle), Google Scholar, and Africa Journal Online (AJOL) were systematically searched to identify potentially relevant articles. Two independent assessors extracted the data from the eligible studies using a pre-tested and standardized excel spreadsheet. Outcomes were 30-day in-hospital stroke case fatality and associated risk factors. Data was pooled using random effects model. Ninety-three (93) studies involving 42,057 participants were included. The overall stroke case fatality rate was 27% [25%-29%]. Subgroup analysis revealed 24% [21%-28%], 25% [21%-28%], 29% [25%-32%] and 31% [20%-43%] stroke case fatality rates in East Africa, Southern Africa, West Africa, and Central Africa respectively. Stroke severity, stroke type, untyped stroke, and post-stroke complications were identified as risk factors. The most prevalent risk factors were low (<8) Glasgow Coma Scale score, high (≥10) National Institute Health Stroke Scale score, aspiration pneumonia, hemorrhagic stroke, brain edema/intra-cranial pressure, hyperglycemia, untyped stroke (stroke diagnosis not confirmed by neuroimaging), recurrent stroke and fever. The findings indicate that one in every four in-hospital people with stroke in sub-Saharan Africa dies within 30 days of admission. Importantly, the identified risk factors are mostly modifiable and preventable, highlighting the need for context-driven health policies, clinical guidelines, and treatments targeting these factors.

Clinical characteristics and short-term outcomes of adult stroke patients admitted to Jimma Medical Center, Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

Introduction

sub-Saharan African countries are facing a rapid increase in stroke incidence and mortality. However, there is a paucity of clinical studies on the burden of stroke and its short-term outcomes. Hence, this study is aimed at evaluating risk factors, clinical characteristics, management, and 28-day clinical outcomes among stroke patients.

Methods

a prospective observational study was conducted at Jimma Medical Center, Ethiopia from July 2020 to January 31^st, 2021. All adult patients diagnosed with stroke were enrolled consecutively and followed for 28 days starting from admission. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 23 and Multivariable cox regression was used to identify factors associated with 28-day all-cause mortality.

Results

among 153 patients enrolled in this study, 127 (83%) had brain CT-scan and hemorrhagic stroke accounts for 66 (52%). About half 81 (53%) of the participants were male and the mean age was 57 years. Regarding in-hospital management, antihypertensive, statins, and aspirin was given to 80 (52%), 72 (47%), and 68 (44%) patients respectively. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 26 (17%) and the all-cause 28-day mortality rate was 39 (25.5%). Rural residence [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 2.93, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.46-5.81], aspiration pneumonia (aHR= 6.57, 95% CI=3.16-13.66) and increased intracranial pressure (aHR= 3.27, 95% CI=1.56-6.86) were associated with 28-day mortality.

Conclusion

the patients admitted to the hospital with stroke diagnosis had high short-term mortality. Strategies focused on increasing timely arrival and evidence-based management of stroke and its complications could improve stroke patient outcomes.

Estimation and predictors of direct hospitalisation expenses and in-hospital mortality for patients who had a stroke in a low-middle income country: evidence from a nationwide cross-sectional study in Iranian hospitals

OBJECTIVE

Stroke is the second most prevalent cardiovascular disease in Iran. This study investigates the estimation and predictors of hospitalisation expenses and in-hospital mortality for patients who had a stroke in Iranian hospitals.

SETTING

Patients who had a stroke in Iran between 2019 and 2020 were identified through the data collected from the Iran Health Insurance Organization and the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. This study is the first to conduct a pervasive, nationwide investigation.

DESIGN

This is a cross-sectional, prevalence-based study. Generalised linear models and a multiple logistic regression model were used to determine the predictors of hospitalisation expenses and in-hospital mortality for patients who had a stroke.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 19 150 patients suffering from stroke were studied.

RESULTS

Mean hospitalisation expenses per patient who had a stroke in Iran amounted to US$590.91±974.44 (mean±SD). Mean daily hospitalisation expenses per patient who had a stroke were US$55.18±37.89. The in-hospital mortality for patients who had a stroke was 18.80%. Younger people (aged ≤49 years) had significantly higher expenses than older patients. The OR of in-hospital mortality in haemorrhagic stroke was significantly higher by 1.539 times (95% CI, 1.401 to 1.691) compared with ischaemic and unspecified strokes. Compared with patients covered by the rural fund, patients covered by Iranian health insurance had significantly higher costs by 1.14 times (95% CI, 1.186 to 1.097) and 1.319 times (95% CI, 1.099 to 1.582) higher mortality. There were also significant geographical variations in patients who had a stroke's expenses and mortality rates.

CONCLUSION

Applying cost-effective stroke prevention strategies among the younger population (≤49 years old) is strongly recommended. Migration to universal health insurance can effectively reduce the inequality gap among all insured patients.

Global stroke statistics 2022

BACKGROUND

Contemporary data on stroke epidemiology and the availability of national stroke clinical registries are important for providing evidence to improve practice and support policy decisions.

AIMS

To update the most current incidence, case-fatality, and mortality rates on stroke and identify national stroke clinical registries worldwide.

METHODS

We searched multiple databases (based on our existing search strategy) to identify new original papers, published between 1 November 2018 and 15 December 2021, that met ideal criteria for data on stroke incidence and case-fatality, and added these to the studies reported in our last review. To identify national stroke clinical registries, we updated our last search, using PubMed, from 6 February 2015 until 6 January 2022. We also screened reference lists of review papers, citation history of papers, and the gray literature. Mortality codes for International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 and ICD-10 were extracted from the World Health Organization (WHO) for each country providing these data. Population denominators were obtained from the United Nations (UN) or WHO (when data were unavailable in the UN database). Crude and adjusted stroke mortality rates were calculated using country-specific population denominators, and the most recent years of mortality data available for each country.

RESULTS

Since our last report in 2020, there were two countries (Chile and France) with new incidence studies meeting criteria for ideal population-based studies. New data on case-fatality were found for Chile and Kenya. The most current mortality data were available for the year 2014 (1 country), 2015 (2 countries), 2016 (11 countries), 2017 (10 countries), 2018 (19 countries), 2019 (36 countries), and 2020 (29 countries). Four countries (Libya, Solomon Islands, United Arab Emirates, and Lebanon) reported mortality data for the first time. Since our last report on registries in 2017, we identified seven more national stroke clinical registries, predominantly in high-income countries. These newly identified registries yielded limited information.

CONCLUSIONS

Up-to-date data on stroke incidence, case-fatality, and mortality continue to provide evidence of disparities and the scale of burden in low- and middle-income countries. Although more national stroke clinical registries were identified, information from these newly identified registries was limited. Highlighting data scarcity or even where a country is ranked might help facilitate more research or greater policy attention in this field.

Case fatality rate and its determinants among admitted stroke patients in public referral hospitals, Northwest, Ethiopia: A prospective cohort study

According to the global burden of disease 5.5 million deaths were attributable to stroke. The stroke mortality rate is estimated to be seven times higher in low-income countries compared to high-income countries. The main aim of the study was to assess the 28 days case fatality rate and its determinants among admitted stroke patients in public referral hospitals, in Northwest Ethiopia. A hospital-based prospective cohort study was conducted from December 2020 to June 2021. The study population was 554 stroke patients. Based on Akakian Information Criteria, the Gompertz model was fitted to predict the hazard of death. The study included admitted stroke patients who were treated in the general medical ward and neurology ward. The mean age of the participants was 61 ± 12.85 years and 53.25% of the patients were female. The 28-days case fatality rate of stroke was 27.08%. The results from Gompertz parametric baseline hazard distribution revealed that female sex adjusted hazard rate (AHR = 0.27, 95% CI:0.18–0.42), absence of a family history of chronic disease (AHR = 0.50, 95%CI:0.29–0.87), good GCS score (AHR = 0.21, 95% CI:0.09–0.50) and the absence of complication during hospital admission (AHR = 0.16, 95% CI:0.08–0.29) were factors which decrease hazard of 28 days case fatality rate. While, hemorrhagic stroke sub-type (AHR = 1.38, 95% CI:1.04–3.19), time from symptom onset to hospital arrival (AHR = 1.49, 95% CI:1.57–2 .71), time from confirmation of the diagnosis to initiation of treatment (AHR = 1.03, 95% CI:1.01–1.04), a respiratory rate greater than 20 (AHR = 7.21, 95% CI:3.48–14.9), and increase in NIHSS score (AHR = 1.16, 95% CI:1.10–1.23) were factors increasing hazard of 28 days case fatality rate of stroke. At 28-days follow-up, more than one-fourth of the patients have died. The establishment of separate stroke centers and a network of local and regional stroke centers with expertise in early stroke evaluation and management may address challenges.

Incidence and characteristics of stroke in Zanzibar–a hospital-based prospective study in a low-income island population

Background

Stroke in adults is a critical clinical condition and a leading cause of death and disability globally. Epidemiological data on stroke in sub-Saharan Africa are limited. This study describes incidence rates, stroke types and antecedent factors among patients hospitalized with stroke in Zanzibar.

Methods

This was a prospective, observational study of stroke patients at hospitals in Unguja, Zanzibar. Socioeconomic and demographic data were recorded alongside relevant past medical history, medicine use and risk factors. The modified National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (mNIHSS) was used to assess admission stroke severity and, when possible, stroke was confirmed by neuroimaging.

Results

A total of 869 stroke admissions were observed from 1st October 2019 through 30th September 2020. Age-standardized to the World Health Organization global population, the yearly incidence was 286.8 per 100,000 adult population (95%CI: 272.4–301.9). Among these patients, 720 (82.9%) gave consent to participate in the study. Median age of participants was 62 years (53–70), 377 (52.2%) were women, and 463 (64.3%) had a first-ever stroke. Known stroke risk factors included hypertension in 503 (72.3%) patients, of whom 279 (55.5%) reported regularly using antihypertensive medication, of whom 161 (57.7%) had used this medication within the last week before stroke onset. A total of 460 (63.9%) participants had neuroimaging performed; among these there was evidence of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in 140 (30.4%). Median stroke severity score using mNIHSS was 19 (10–27).

Conclusion

Zanzibar has high incidence of hospitalization for stroke, indicating a very high population incidence of stroke. The proportion of strokes due to ICH is substantially higher than in high-income countries. Most stroke patients had been in contact with health care providers prior to stroke onset and been diagnosed with hypertension. However, few were using antihypertensive medication at the time of stroke onset.

www.ClinicalTrial.gov registration NCT04095806.

Predictors of in-hospital and 90-day post-discharge stroke mortality in Lusaka, Zambia

BACKGROUND

Factors associated with stroke mortality are understudied in sub-Saharan Africa but have implications for designing interventions that improve stroke outcomes. We investigated predictors of in-hospital and 90-day post-discharge stroke mortality in Lusaka, Zambia.

METHODS

Data from consecutive adults admitted with stroke at University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia between October 2018 and March 2019 were retrospectively reviewed for clinical in-hospital outcomes. Vital status at 90-days post-discharge was determined through phone calls. Factors associated with stroke mortality were included in multivariable logistic regression models utilizing multiple imputation analysis to determine independent predictors of in-hospital and 90-days post-discharge mortality.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality was 24%, and 90-day post-discharge mortality was 22% among those who survived hospitalization. Hemorrhagic and unknown strokes, ICU care, seizures, and aspiration pneumonia were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. Among these, hemorrhagic stroke (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.27-6.53, p = 0.01) and seizures (OR 29.5, 95% CI 2.14-406, p = 0.01) remained independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in multivariable analyses. Ninety-day post-discharge mortality was significantly associated with older age, previous stroke, atrial fibrillation, and aspiration pneumonia, but only older age (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.007) and aspiration pneumonia (OR 3.93, 95% CI 1.30-11.88, p = 0.02) remained independently associated with 90-day mortality in multivariable analyses.

CONCLUSION

This Zambian stroke cohort had high in-hospital and 90-day post-discharge mortality that were associated with several in-hospital complications. Our data indicate the need for improvement in both acute stroke care and post-stroke systems of care to improve stroke outcomes in Zambia.

Magnitude and Predictors of In-Hospital Stroke Mortality in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Stroke is the second leading cause of mortality worldwide, accounting for approximately 5.5 million deaths each year. Due to demographic and health changes, the epidemiology of stroke is shifting from industrialized to low- and middle-income nations. Ethiopia is a developing country with a population that reflects this shift. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis are aimed at evaluating the extent of in-hospital mortality of both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in Ethiopia and determining relevant factors associated with the mortality.

Methods

Observational studies published as of July 15, 2020, that reported the magnitude, predictors, and causes of in-hospital mortality of stroke were systematically and comprehensively retrieved using the PRISMA 2020 criteria from databases such as PubMed/MEDLINE, Science Direct, and Google Scholar. The review papers were chosen based on the study methodology (facility-based observational), the study area (Ethiopia), the study population (adult patients with stroke), the outcome (in-hospital mortality), and the fact that they were published in English.

Result

A total of 3709 patients with stroke were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis, which included 19 publications. In-hospital mortality was 14.03 percent on average in the studies, with reports ranging from 6.04 percent to 37.37 percent. Patients with hemorrhagic type stroke, admission Glasgow Coma Scale less than or equal to 12, impaired mental status, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale stroke level greater than 13, prolonged hospital stay, any incontinence, pneumonia, and/or swallowing trouble had an increased risk of death after stroke.

Conclusion

The magnitude of in-hospital mortality of patients with stroke in Ethiopia is high. The assessment of the level of consciousness is vital for clinical management and as an indicator of prognosis. Patients with unfavorable prognostic signs, such as entry Glasgow Coma Scale, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale stroke level > 13, hemorrhagic stroke, pneumonia, incontinence, and dysphagia, should be given priority.

Stroke Epidemiology, Care, and Outcomes in Kenya: A Scoping Review

Background: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa with increasing incidence. In Kenya, it is a neglected condition with a paucity of evidence despite its need for urgent care and hefty economic burden. Therefore, we reviewed studies on stroke epidemiology, care, and outcomes in Kenya to highlight existing evidence and gaps on stroke in Kenya.

Methods: We reviewed all published studies on epidemiology, care, and outcomes of stroke in Kenya between 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2020 from PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCOhost, Scopus, and African journal online. We excluded case reports, reviews, and commentaries. We used the Newcastle-Ottawa scale adapted for cross-sectional studies to assess the quality of included studies.

Results: Twelve articles were reviewed after excluding 111 duplicates and 94 articles that did not meet the inclusion criteria. Five studies were of low quality, two of medium quality, and five of high quality. All studies were hospital-based and conducted between 2003 and 2017. Of the included studies, six were prospective and five were single-center. Stroke patients in the studies were predominantly female, in their seventh decade with systemic hypertension. The mortality rate ranged from 5 to 27% in-hospital and 23.4 to 26.7% in 1 month.

Conclusions: Our study highlights that stroke is a significant problem in Kenya, but current evidence is of low quality and limited in guiding policy development and improving stroke care. There is thus a need for increased investment in hospital- and community-based stroke care and research.

The burden of stroke and modifiable risk factors in Ethiopia: A systemic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The burden and contribution of modifiable risk factors of stroke in Ethiopia are unclear. Knowledge about this burden and modifying risk factors is pivotal for establishing stroke prevention strategies. In recent decades, the issue of lifestyle and behavioral modification is a key to improve the quality of life. The modifiable risk factors are an importance as intervention strategies aimed at reducing these factors can subsequently reduce the risk of stroke. So far, many primary studies were conducted to estimate the burden of stroke and modifiable risk factors in Ethiopia. However, the lack of a nationwide study that determines the overall pooled estimation of burden and modifiable risk factors of stroke is a research gap.

METHODS

To conduct this systemic review and meta-analysis, we are following the PRISMA checklist. Three authors searched and extracted the data from the CINAHL (EBSCO), MEDLINE (via Ovid), PubMed, EMcare, African Journals Online (AJOL), and Google scholar. The quality of the primary study was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) by two independent reviewers. The primary studies with low and moderate risk of bias were included in the final analysis. The authors presented the pooled estimated burden of stroke and its modifiable risk factors. The registered protocol number in PROSPERO was CRD42020221906.

RESULTS

In this study, the pooled burden of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke were 46.42% (95%CI: 41.82-51.53; I2 = 91.6%) and 51.40% (95%CI: 46.97-55.82; I2 = 85.5%) respectively. The overall magnitude of modifiable risk factor of hypertension, alcohol consumption and dyslipidemia among stroke patients were 49% (95%CI: 43.59, 54.41), 24.96% (95CI%:15.01, 34.90), and 20.99% (95%CI: 11.10, 30.88), respectively. The least proportion of stroke recovery was in the Oromia region (67.38 (95%CI: 41.60-93.17; I2 = 98.1%). Farther more, the proportion of stroke recovery was decreased after 2017 (70.50 (56.80-84.20).

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, more than 90% of stroke patients had one or more modifiable risk factors. All identified modifiable stroke risk factors are major public health issues in Ethiopia. Therefore, strategy is designed for stroke prevention to decrease stroke burden through targeted modification of a single risk factor, or a cluster of multiple risk factors, used on a population, community, or individual level.

In-hospital mortality and its predictors among stroke patients in sub-Saharan Africa: A systemic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To assess the in-hospital mortality from acute stroke and its predictors in sub-Saharan Africa.

Method

The literature search was conducted in the databases of PubMed/Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and Google Scholar. The retrieved studies were screened by titles and abstracts, and then full texts were assessed for eligibility. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute's critical appraisal checklist. The publication bias was assessed using the funnel plot asymmetry and the Egger tests. Data were analyzed using Stata software version 15.0 in a random-effect model.

Result

A total of 27 studies with a total sample size of 6331 were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The pooled estimated prevalence of in-hospital mortality due to stroke was 22% (95% confidence interval = 0.17-0.27). Stroke mortality in Western Africa (37%, 95% confidence interval = 0.24-0.50) was higher than in Eastern Africa (15%, 95% confidence interval = 0.12-0.19) and Southern Africa (18%, 95% confidence interval = 0.06-0.19). In three studies, mortality was higher in hemorrhagic stroke (25%) than ischemic stroke (14%). Risk factors associated with higher mortality were admission Glasgow Coma Scale, stroke severity, age, sex, presence of hypertension, and declined renal function.

Conclusion

The in-patient mortality of stroke in sub-Saharan Africa was high. Therefore, there is an urgent need for further stroke epidemiology studies in stroke subtypes and the performance of patient-level meta-analysis to understand the risk factors associated with mortality and herald appropriate intervention to curb the high mortality rate in the region.

Risk factors for 30-day in-hospital mortality for in-patient with stroke in sub-Saharan Africa: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

While individual studies have reported on in-hospital stroke mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the estimates are highly variable and inconclusive, buttressing the need for precise and reliable estimations. To overcome these inconsistencies, a well-structured systematic review and meta-analytical models are necessary. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no published systematic review and meta-analysis on risk factors for 30-day mortality for in-hospital patients with stroke in SSA.

METHOD AND ANALYSIS

We will include all retrospective and prospective facility-based observational studies reporting on the incidence and/or risk factors for in-hospital stroke mortality in SSA. Electronic databases such as PubMed, Google scholar and Africa Journal Online (AJOL) will be searched for potentially relevant studies on in-hospital stroke mortality and risk factors in SSA. The search will be limited to studies conducted from January 1990 to December 2020. Two independent authors will screen titles and abstract to find studies that meet the prespecified eligibility criteria for inclusion in the review. The incidence of 30-day in hospital stroke mortality will be pooled. Meta-regression will be used to assess the factors associated with in-hospital stroke mortality in SSA. If possible, subgroup analysis will be performed based on subregion, publication year and study design, and quality score to determine possible source of heterogeneity. If possible, a sensitivity analysis will be performed to determine the robustness of the estimates obtained from the meta-analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required as this is a secondary research and will use reported data in scientific literature. A full manuscript will be submitted to a reputable peer-review journal for publication.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021227367.

The Survival Status and Predictors of Mortality Among Stroke Patients at North West Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Stroke is one of the commonest non-communicable disease types that has a great public health impact both in developed and developing countries. However, in Ethiopia, the long-term survival status of stroke patients is not very understood. This study aimed at assessing survival status and predictors of mortality among stroke patients at Felege Hiwot comprehensive specialized hospital from September 1, 2014, to August 31, 2019, Bahirdar, North West Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institutional-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using 368 registered stroke patients between September 1, 2014, and August 31, 2019. We used Kaplan-Meier together with a Log-rank test to compare the survival rate of the study participants using categorical variables and to compare covariate and both bi-variable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis model was conducted to identify predictors of mortality among stroke patients. The association between outcome and independent variables was expressed using an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with a 95% confidence interval and statistical significances were declared at P-value of <0.05.

RESULTS

Fifty-six (15.2%) of the 368 stroke patients included in the study died, and 312 (84.8%) were correctly censored. The overall survival rate was 72.2% at 51 months of follow-up with a median survival time of 0.26 months. Age greater than 65 (AHR 6.31, 95% CI 1.75-22.74), body temperature >7.1 degree centigrade (AHR = 7.14, 95% CI: 2.76-18.5), potassium level below <2 mmol/l (AHR = 2, 95% CI: 1.9-23.53) and creatinine level >1.2 mg/dl (AHR = 7.85, 95% CI: 2.7-22.6) were predictive predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In the follow-up of 51 months, significant mortality occurred. Important predictive predictors of survival status were identified. Interventions should be focused on health education and awareness creation of the community for the early management of stroke.

Clinical Characteristics, Treatment Outcomes, and its Predictors Among Hospitalized Stroke Patients in Ambo University Referral Hospital, West Ethiopia: A Retrospective Hospital-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Stroke is becoming a leading cause of death and adult disability in the developing world.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to assess the clinical characteristics, treatment outcomes, and its predictors among stroke patients admitted to Ambo University Referral Hospital (AURH), West Ethiopia.

METHODS

All 111 stroke patients hospitalized from April 2016 to May 2019 were included using a hospital-based retrospective study. Socio-demographic profile, past medication history, clinical presentation, drugs prescribed for comorbid condition and stroke treatment, and outcomes data were collected using data abstraction formats and results were summarized using both descriptive and inferential statistics.

KEY FINDINGS

According to WHO clinical criteria, 89 (80.2%) were diagnosed with ischemic stroke, and 20 (18.0%) were diagnosed with hemorrhagic stroke. The majority of the patients 94 (84.7%) had at least one antecedent risk factor in which hypertension accounted for 44.1%. More than half, 69 (62.2%), of hospitalized stroke patients had good treatment outcomes while 42 (37.8%) had a poor outcome. The overall case-fatality rate was 18 (16.2%), 12 (13.5%) from ischemic stroke, and 6 (30.0%) from hemorrhagic stroke. Acetyl salicylic acid (ASA) with atorvastatin/simvastatin, 67 (73.5%) in ischemic stroke and 12 (60.0%) in hemorrhagic stroke, was the most frequent medications prescribed for stroke during admission while it was frequently prescribed for 48 (53.6%) of ischemic stroke and 10 (50.0%) of the hemorrhagic stroke on discharge. Overall, ceftriaxone + metronidazole 32 (28.8%) was frequently prescribed concomitant medications during admission. The major predictors identified for poor stroke outcomes were substance abuse (AOR=2.839, P=0.024) and have had not received any medication for stroke treatment during admission (AOR=12.503, P≤0.001).

CONCLUSION

A significant number of the admitted stroke patients had poor treatment outcome in which the case-fatality rate was relatively high. Substance abuse and having not received medication for stroke were the significant predictors for poor treatment outcome. Hence, a well-established stroke unit setup at AURH is required for accurate diagnosis and management of stroke to overcome stroke-related mortality and/or poor treatment outcome.

Pattern and frequency of neurological and neurosurgical care of adult inpatients and outpatients at a tertiary referral hospital in Kenya

OBJECTIVE

To describe the patterns and burden of neurological and neurosurgical disorders at a national tertiary level referral hospital in western Kenya.

METHODS

We conducted a three-month period prevalence study. We recruited consecutive adult patients seeking neurological-neurosurgical care in both inpatient and outpatient settings at Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital.

RESULTS

833 participants were included. The age range was between 19 year and 99 years (mean age = 45.3 years). The most common diagnoses among neurology inpatients were meningitis (12%), ischemic stroke (11.0%) and epilepsy/seizure (6.7%). Among neurology outpatients, epilepsy (35.1%) and ischemic stroke (18.8%) were the most common diagnoses. The most common neurosurgery inpatient diagnosis was hemorrhagic stroke (16.3%) and among outpatients, the most common diagnoses were traumatic brain injury (17.4%) and hemorrhagic stroke (16.3%). Overall, 471 (56.5%) patients underwent HIV testing, of which, 89 (18.9%) were HIV positive and 382 (81.1%) were HIV negative. Thirty-one inpatient deaths (male 58%), attributable to neurological and neurosurgical disorders, occurred during the study period. Meningitis was the most common cause of death.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that meningitis, stroke, epilepsy, and traumatic brain injury were the most common diagnosis. More resources and efforts should be directed towards prevention, diagnosis and management of these conditions in the region.

Factors affecting in-hospital cost and mortality of patients with stroke: Evidence from a case study in a tertiary hospital in China

OBJECTIVE

The study aims to investigate the factors causing the difference of stroke patients' in-hospital cost and study these factors on health outcome in terms of mortality.

METHODS

Eight hundred and sixty-two in-patients with stroke in a tertiary hospital in China from 2017 to 2019 were included in the database. Descriptive statistics indexes were used to describe patients' in-hospital cost and mortality. Based on Elixhauser coding algorithms, multiple linear regression and logistic regressions (LRs) were used to evaluate the impact of factors identified from univariate analysis on in-hospital cost and mortality, respectively. In addition to LRs, a comparison study was then carried out with random forest, gradient boosting decision tree and artificial neural network.

RESULTS

Factors affecting both cost and mortality are age, discharged day-of-week, length of stay, stroke subtype, other neurological disorders, renal failure, fluid and electrolyte disorders and total number of comorbidities.

CONCLUSION

With the increase of age, the mortality rate of in-patients (except for the juvenile) with stroke increases and the cost of hospitalization decreases. Intracerebral haemorrhage is the most devastating stroke for its highest mortality in short length of stay. Medical services should focus on these specific comorbidities.

Survival of Stroke Patients According to Hypertension Status in Northern Ethiopia: Seven Years Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Globally, stroke appears as a major cause of preventable deaths and disabilities. In Ethiopia, the intra-hospital mortality of stroke is significant; however, epidemiologic data are scarce whether there is a difference in the overall survival time between hypertensive and non-hypertensive adult stroke patients admitted in specialized hospitals. This study was intended to determine the survival of stroke patients according to their hypertension status admitted in Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northern Ethiopia from March 1, 2012, to February 28, 2019.

Methods and Findings

A hospital-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among all cohorts of confirmed first-ever stroke patients admitted in Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northern Ethiopia. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was applied to estimate the survival probability of hypertensive and non-hypertensive first-ever stroke patients. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine the adjusted hazard ratio of death for each main baseline predictor variable with 95% CI, and P-value <0.05 was used to declare statistical significance. The assumptions of the Cox proportional hazards regression model assessed by the global test, Schoenfeld residuals. There were 503 (323 were hypertensive, 180 Non-hypertensive) confirmed first, ever adult stroke patients, the overall median age of the patients was 65 years, IQR (53–75) years. Seventy-five (14.9%) of them were dead, with a median survival time of 48 days and 428 (85.1%) of them were censored. At any particular point in time, the hazard of death among hypertensive patients was two times higher than non-hypertensive patients, but this was not found to be a statistically significant (adjusted HR=2.13: 95% CI 0.66–6.81). Glasgow Coma Scale 3–8 at admission (adjusted HR=10.12; 95% CI 2.58–40.68), presence of stroke complications (adjusted HR=7.23; 95% CI 1.86–28.26) and borderline high total cholesterol level (adjusted HR=3.57; 95% CI 1.15–11.1) were the only independent predictors of intra-hospital patient mortality.

Conclusion

The overall survival time difference between hypertensive and non-hypertensive first-ever adult stroke patients was not statistically significant. Early identification and treatment of stroke complications, co-morbidities along strict follow-up of comatose patients may improve the intra-hospital survival of stroke patients, and we also recommend community-based studies using a large sample size.

Magnitude of risk factors and in-hospital mortality of stroke in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The morbidity and mortality of stroke is disproportionately high in developing countries owing to the poor health care system and poor neurologic interventions. Though a number of studies were conducted to estimate the in-hospital mortality rate of stroke in Ethiopia, the lack of a nationwide study that determines the overall magnitude of risk factors and in-hospital mortality rate of stroke is an important research gap. Meta-analysis is key to improve the accuracy of estimates through the use of more data sets. Thus, this study was aimed to determine the overall magnitude of risk factors and in-hospital mortality rate of stroke in Ethiopia.

Methods

This study was conducted following the PRISMA checklist. We searched from Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, CINAHL, and Cochrane Library databases for studies. Each of the original studies was assessed using a tool for the risk of bias adapted for cross-sectional studies. Data were pooled and a random effect meta-analysis model was fitted to provide the overall magnitude of risk factors and in-hospital mortality rate of stroke. Also, the subgroup analyses were performed to examine how the in-hospital mortality rate varies across different groups of studies.

Results

In this study, the overall magnitude of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and atrial fibrillation among stroke patients were 47% (95%CI: 40–54), 8% (95CI%:6–12), and 10% (95%CI: 5–19), respectively. The overall in-hospital mortality of stroke in Ethiopia was 18% (95%:14–22). The highest magnitude of in-hospital mortality of stroke was observed in SNNPR and the lowest was noted in Tigray region. In addition, the magnitude of the in-hospital mortality rate of stroke was 15.1% (95%CI: 11.3–19.4), and 19.6%(95%CI: 14.1–25.7), among studies published before and after 2016, respectively.

Conclusions

Our pooled result showed that nearly one-fifth of stroke patients have died during hospitalization. The most common risk factor of stroke among the included studies was hypertension followed by atrial fibrillation and diabetes mellitus. There is a need for a better understanding of the factors associated with high blood pressure, especially in countries with a high risk of stroke.

Long-Term Mortality of Stroke Survivors in Parakou: 5-Year Follow-Up

BACKGROUND

The burden of stroke is high in Africa, but few data are available on the long-term outcome of strokes in this area.

AIM

We aimed to study the long-term outcome of stroke survivors in Parakou from 2012 to 2018.

METHODS OF STUDY

It was a cohort study and included 247 stroke patients admitted to the University Hospital of Parakou from January 1, 2012 to April 30, 2018. Each patient was followed up for at least 1 year. The modified RANKIN scale was used to evaluate patients. Verbal autopsy was used to ascertain the cause of death. The survival probability was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of mortality were estimated using the Cox proportional model and the hazard ratio (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals were determined. The data were analyzed using Stata Software.

RESULTS

The mean age was 58.1 ± 13.4 years with a sex ratio of 1.12. Among stroke survivors, the mortality was 10.1% at 3 months, 11.7% at 6 months, 15.4% at 1 year, 21.5% at 3 years, and 23.5% at 5 years. The probability of survival after a stroke was 66.5% at 5 years. Factors associated with mortality were age with adjusted HR 1.4 (1.2-1.7) for each 10 years, male sex with aHR 2.3 (1.2-4.6), history of hypertension with aHR 2.0 (1.0-4.1) and the severity of the initial neurological impairment National Institute of Health Stroke Scale with aHR 1.1 (1.0-1.2) for each 1 point. The main causes of death were recurrent stroke, infectious diseases, and cardiac disease. The proportion of patients with functional disability was 53.8% at 1 year. The quality of life was generally impaired in terms of physical health, personal environment, and finances.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term prognosis of stroke patients in Parakou is poor. It requires urgent action to reduce this burden.

Prevention of cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

As longevity has increased for people living with HIV (PLWH) in the United States and Europe, there has been a concomitant increase in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and morbidity in this population. Whereas the availability of HIV antiretroviral therapy has resulted in dramatic increases in life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where over two thirds of PLWH reside, if and how these trends impact the epidemiology of CVD is less clear. In this review, we describe the current state of the science on how both HIV and its treatment impact CVD risk factors and outcomes among PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa, including regional factors (unique to SSA) likely to differentiate these relationships from the global North. We then outline how current regional guidelines address CVD prevention among PLWH and which clinical and structural interventions are best poised to confront the co-epidemics of HIV and CVD in the region. We conclude with a discussion of key research gaps that need to be addressed to optimally develop an actionable public health response.