Lost to follow up rate in the first year of ART in adults initiated in a universal test and treat programme: a retrospective cohort study in Ekurhuleni District, South Africa

Rate and predictors of loss to follow-up in HIV care in a low-resource setting: analyzing critical risk periods

BACKGROUND

Patient loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) in HIV care is a major challenge, especially in low-resource settings. Although the literature has focused on the total rate at which patients disengage from care, it has not sufficiently examined the specific risk periods during which patients are most likely to disengage from care. By addressing this gap, researchers and healthcare providers can develop more targeted interventions to improve patient engagement in HIV care.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study on newly enrolled adult HIV patients at seven randomly selected high-volume health facilities in Ethiopia from May 2022 to April 2024. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 26, with a focus on the incidence rate of LTFU during the critical risk periods. Cumulative hazard analysis was used to compare event distributions, whereas a Poisson regression model was used to identify factors predicting LTFU, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

The analysis included 737 individuals newly enrolled in HIV care; 165 participants (22.4%, 95% CI: 19.5-25.2) were LTFU by the end of two years, of which 50.1% occurred within the first 6 months, 29.7% within 7-12 months, and 19.4% from 13 to 24 months on ART. The overall incidence rate of LTFU was 18.3 per 1,000 PMO (95% CI: 15.9-20.6), with rates of 167.7 in the first 6 months, 55.4 in 7-12 months, and 18.1 in 13-24 months. Incomplete addresses lacking a phone number or location information (IRR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.14, 2.27) and poor adherence (IRR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.28, 2.48) were factors predicting the incidence rate of LTFU.

CONCLUSION

LTFU peaked in the first 6 months, accounting for approximately half of total losses, remained elevated from months 7-12, and stabilized after the first year of HIV care and treatment. Address information and adherence were predictors of LTFU. To effectively minimize LTFU, efforts should focus on intensive support during the first six months of care, followed by sustained efforts and monitoring in the next six months. Our findings highlight a critical period for targeted interventions to reduce LTFU in HIV care.

Cost Analysis of Short Messaging Service and Peer Navigator Interventions for Linking and Retaining Adults Recently Diagnosed With HIV in Care in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Large proportions of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa are not linked to or retained in HIV care. There is a critical need for cost-effective interventions to improve engagement and retention in care and inform optimal allocation of resources.

METHODS

We estimated costs associated with a short message service (SMS) plus peer navigation (SMS+PN) intervention; an SMS-only intervention; and standard of care (SOC), within the I-Care cluster-randomized trial to improve HIV care engagement for recently diagnosed PLHIV. We employed a uniform cost data-collection protocol to quantify resources used and associated costs for each intervention.

RESULTS

Compared with SOC, the SMS+PN intervention cost $1284 ($828-$2859) more per additional patient linked to care within 30 days and $1904 ($1158-$5343) more per additional patient retained in care at 12 months, while improving linkage by 24% (95% CI: 11 to 36) and retention by 16% (95% CI: 6 to 26). By contrast, the SMS-only intervention cost $198 ($93-dominated) more per additional patient linked to care and $697 ($171-dominated) more per additional patient retained in care but was not significantly associated with improvements in linkage (12%; 95% CI: -1 to 25) or retention (3%; 95% CI: -7 to 14) compared with SOC. The efficiency of the SMS+PN intervention could be improved by 46%, to $690 more per additional patient linked and $1023 more per additional patient retained in care, if implemented within the Department of Health using more efficient distribution of staff resources.

DISCUSSION

Findings suggest that scale-up of the SMS+PN intervention could benefit patients, improving care and health outcomes while being cost-effective.

Factors influencing rapid antiretroviral therapy initiation in Jiulongpo, Chongqing, China: a retrospective cohort from 2018 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is pivotal in extending the lives of people living with HIV (PLWH) and minimizing transmission. Rapid ART initiation, defined as commencing ART within seven days of HIV diagnosis, is recommended for all PLWH.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. This study included PLWH diagnosed between January 2018 and December 2021 and treated by December 2022. Factors influencing rapid ART initiation were examined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

The study analyzed 1310 cases. The majority were male (77.4%), over 50 years old (46.7%), and contracted HIV through heterosexual transmission (70.0%). Rapid ART initiation was observed in 36.6% (n = 479) of cases, with a cumulative treatment rate of 72.9% within 30 days post-diagnosis. Heterosexual contact was associated with longer intervals from diagnosis to treatment initiation compared to homosexual contact (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.813, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.668-0.988). Individuals older than 50 years (Adjusted HR = 1.852, 95%CI: 1.149-2.985) were more likely to initiate ART rapidly. Conversely, treatment at the Second Public Hospital (Adjusted HR = 0.483, 95% CI: 0.330-0.708) and a CD4 cell counts above 500 (Adjusted HR = 0.553, 95% CI: 0.332-0.921) were associated with a lower likelihood of initiating treatment within seven days.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher CD4 cell counts and receiving care in local public hospitals may deter rapid ART initiation. Providing CD4 counts results at diagnosis and offering testing and treatment in the same facility could enhance the rate of rapid ART initiation.

Long-term HIV care outcomes under universal HIV treatment guidelines: A retrospective cohort study in 25 countries

BACKGROUND

While national adoption of universal HIV treatment guidelines has led to improved, timely uptake of antiretroviral therapy (ART), longer-term care outcomes are understudied. There is little data from real-world service delivery settings on patient attrition, viral load (VL) monitoring, and viral suppression (VS) at 24 and 36 months after HIV treatment initiation.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

For this retrospective cohort analysis, we used observational data from 25 countries in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium's Asia-Pacific, Central Africa, East Africa, Central/South America, and North America regions for patients who were ART naïve and aged ≥15 years at care enrollment between 24 months before and 12 months after national adoption of universal treatment guidelines, occurring 2012 to 2018. We estimated crude cumulative incidence of loss-to-clinic (CI-LTC) at 12, 24, and 36 months after enrollment among patients enrolling in care before and after guideline adoption using competing risks regression. Guideline change-associated hazard ratios of LTC at each time point after enrollment were estimated via cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks of retention, VL monitoring, and VS at 12, 24, and 36 months after ART initiation. There were 66,963 patients enrolling in HIV care at 109 clinics with ≥12 months of follow-up time after enrollment (46,484 [69.4%] enrolling before guideline adoption and 20,479 [30.6%] enrolling afterwards). More than half (54.9%) were females, and median age was 34 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 27 to 43). Mean follow-up time was 51 months (standard deviation: 17 months; range: 12, 110 months). Among patients enrolling before guideline adoption, crude CI-LTC was 23.8% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 23.4, 24.2) at 12 months, 31.0% (95% CI [30.6, 31.5]) at 24 months, and 37.2% (95% [CI 36.8, 37.7]) at 36 months after enrollment. Adjusting for sex, age group, enrollment CD4, clinic location and type, and country income level, enrolling in care and initiating ART after guideline adoption was associated with increased hazard of LTC at 12 months (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.25 [95% CI 1.08, 1.44]; p = 0.003); 24 months (aHR 1.38 [95% CI 1.19, 1.59]; p < .001); and 36 months (aHR 1.34 [95% CI 1.18, 1.53], p < .001) compared with enrollment before guideline adoption, with no before-after differences among patients with no record of ART initiation by end of follow-up. Among patients retained after ART initiation, VL monitoring was low, with marginal improvements associated with guideline adoption only at 12 months after ART initiation. Among those with VL monitoring, VS was high at each time point among patients enrolling before guideline adoption (86.0% to 88.8%) and afterwards (86.2% to 90.3%), with no substantive difference associated with guideline adoption. Study limitations include lags in and potential underascertainment of care outcomes in real-world service delivery data and potential lack of generalizability beyond IeDEA sites and regions included in this analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, adoption of universal HIV treatment guidelines was associated with lower retention after ART initiation out to 36 months of follow-up, with little change in VL monitoring or VS among retained patients. Monitoring long-term HIV care outcomes remains critical to identify and address causes of attrition and gaps in HIV care quality.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among Ethiopian children on antiretroviral therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Loss of follow-up (LTFU) from ART regular follow-up is one of the key acknowledged causes for the development of ART-resistant virus strains currently. It becomes a major weakness for the successful implementation of HIV care and treatment programs mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa but also globally. About 20-40% of children on ART loss their regular ART follow-up annually. Because of the inconsistency of the prior publications' findings, policymakers, programmers, and healthcare providers find it difficult to intervene. Hence, this study was conducted to provide a pooled incidence and identify the predictors of LTFU among children on ART in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Articles were searched from PubMed/ MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, Google Scholar, and Science Direct, as well as organizational records and websites. This review included both retrospective and prospective follow-up studies published in English. The data were extracted using Microsoft Excel and exported into Stata™ Version 17.0 for further processing and analysis. The presence of heterogeneity was assessed using forest plots with the I2 test. To identify the source of heterogeneity subgroup analysis, meta-regression, publication bias, and sensitivity analysis were computed. The pooled incidence of LTFU was estimated using a random effects meta-analysis model with the DerSimonian-laired method. To identify the predictors, a 95% confidence interval with relative risk was used to declare the presence or absence of an association.

RESULTS

In this systematic review and Meta-analysis, nine studies with a total of 3336 children were included. The pooled incidence of LTFU from ART was 5.83 (95% CI: 3.94, 7.72) per 100 children-years of observation with I2: 83% & p-value < 0.001. Those children who were from rural were had a 1.65 (95% CI: 1.06, 2.52) times higher chance of getting LTFU when compared with their counterparts. Children who had poor ART adherence had a 2.03 (95% CI: 1.23, 3.34) times higher chance of experiencing LTFU of ART than children having good ART adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Ethiopian children on ART, one out of 167 had the risk of experiencing LTFU. Being rural dwellers and having poor ART adherence were the identified predictors of LTFU. Close follow-up and phone message text should be used to have good ART adherence among rural dwellers to meet the predetermined goal of ART.

Stakeholder Priorities for ART Initiation and Early Retention Interventions in Malawi: A Qualitative Study Comparing International and National Perspectives

Background

New or returning ART clients are often ineligible for differentiated service delivery (DSD) models, though they are at increased risk of treatment interruption and may benefit greatly from flexible care models. Stakeholder support may limit progress on development and scale-up of interventions for this population. We qualitatively explored stakeholder perceptions of and decision-making criteria regarding DSD models for new or returning ART clients in Malawi.

Methods

We conducted in-depth interviews with internationally based stakeholders (from foundations, multilateral organizations, and NGOs) and Malawi-based stakeholders (from the Malawi Ministry of Health and PEPFAR implementing partners). The interviews included two think-aloud scenarios in which participants rated and described their perceptions of 1) the relative importance of five criteria (cost, effectiveness, acceptability, feasibility, and equity) in determining which interventions to implement for new or returning ART clients and 2) their relative interest in seven potential interventions (monetary incentives, nonmonetary incentives, community-based care, ongoing peer/mentor support and counseling, eHealth, facility-based interventions, and multimonth dispensing) for the same population. The interviews were completed in English via video conference and were audio-recorded. Transcriptions were coded using ATLAS.ti version 9. We examined the data using thematic content analysis and explored differences between international and national stakeholders.

Results

We interviewed twenty-two stakeholders between October 2021 and March 2022. Thirteen were based internationally, and nine were based in Malawi. Both groups prioritized client acceptability but diverged on other criteria: international stakeholders prioritized effectiveness, and Malawi-based stakeholders prioritized cost, feasibility, and sustainability. Both stakeholder groups were most interested in facility-based DSD models, such as multimonth dispensing and extended facility hours. Nearly all the stakeholders described person-centered care as a critical focus for any DSD model implemented.

Conclusions

National and international stakeholders support DSD models for new or returning ART clients. Client acceptability and long-term sustainability should be prioritized to address the concerns of nationally based stakeholders. Future studies should explore the reasons for differences in national and international stakeholders' priorities and how to ensure that local perspectives are incorporated into funding and programmatic decisions.

Loss to Follow-up and Death Among Individuals With Newly Diagnosed Human Immunodeficiency Virus Receiving Dolutegravir-Based First-Line Antiretroviral Treatment in Eastern Ethiopia: Implications for 95% United Nations Targets

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) and death are unfavorable outcomes of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment. This study aimed to identify the predictors of LTFU and death among individuals with newly diagnosed HIV receiving dolutegravir (DTG)-based first-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) in eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

A multisite prospective cohort study was carried out between October 2020 and July 2022. New case patients who started ART were enrolled consecutively and then followed up for the next 6 months. A structured questionnaire and checklists were used to collect data. HIV viral load was determined using the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 assay. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify baseline factors associated with the outcomes.

Results

A total of 235 people with newly diagnosed HIV were enrolled; 16.6% (95% confidence interval, 12.3%-21.9%) were lost to follow-up, and 5.9% (3.5%-9.8%) died within 6 months of follow-up. Baseline World Health Organization clinical stage I (adjusted odds ratio, 3.93 [95% confidence interval, 1.34-11.57]), low viral load (3.67 [1.09-12.36]), and body weight (1.04 [1.01-1.07]) were predictors of LTFU, whereas nonfunctional status (10.02 [1.9-51.3]) was the only factor associated with death.

Conclusions

LTFU and death rates among patients with DTG were relatively high, accounting for roughly a quarter of the attrition of people with newly diagnosed HIV from ART care and services. Thus, targeted interventions are required to reduce LTFU and death among individuals with HIV on ART. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate the long-term effects of DTG-based regimens on LTFU and its impact on HIV mortality rates, and qualitative research, specifically tracing LTFU, is recommended.

HIV test-and-treat policy improves clinical outcomes in Zambian adults from Southern Province: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

Background

Globally, most countries have implemented a test-and-treat policy to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with HIV infection. However, the impact of this strategy has not been critically appraised in many settings, including Zambia. We evaluated the retention and clinical outcomes of adults enrolled in antiretroviral therapy (ART) and assessed the impact of the test-and-treat policy.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 6,640 individuals who initiated ART between January 1, 2014 and July 31, 2016 [before test-and-treat cohort (BTT), n = 2,991] and between August 1, 2016 and October 1, 2020 [after test-and-treat cohort (ATT), n = 3,649] in 12 districts of the Southern province. To assess factors associated with retention, we used logistic regression (xtlogit model).

Results

The median age [interquartile range (IQR)] was 34.8 years (28.0, 42.1), and 60.2% (n = 3,995) were women. The overall retention was 83.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 82.6, 84.4], and it was significantly higher among the ATT cohort, 90.6 vs. 74.8%, p < 0.001. The reasons for attrition were higher in the BTT compared to the ATT cohorts: stopped treatment (0.3 vs. 0.1%), transferred out (9.3 vs. 3.2%), lost to follow-up (13.5 vs. 5.9%), and death (1.4 vs. 0.2%). Retention in care was significantly associated with the ATT cohort, increasing age and baseline body mass index (BMI), rural residence, and WHO stage 2, while non-retention was associated with never being married, divorced, and being in WHO stage 3.

Conclusion

The retention rate and attrition factors improved in the ATT compared to the BTT cohorts. Drivers of retention were test-and-treat policy, older age, high BMI, rural residence, marital status, and WHO stage 1. Therefore, there is need for interventions targeting young people, urban residents, non-married people, and those in the symptomatic WHO stages and with low BMI. Our findings highlight improved ART retention after the implementation of the test-and-treat policy.

Twelve months antiretroviral therapy retention among clients newly enrolled to care and treatment services in Geita Regin, Tanzania: does universal test and treat matter?

Introduction

sustaining high rates of retention is critical for management of HIV clients, newly initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). In low resource settings including Tanzania, retention among clients on ART was challenging due to inaccessible infrastructure, gender-based violence, inadequate skilled staff and socio-economic disparities. Low retention leads to increased morbidity and mortality. Tanzania adopted universal test and treat (UTT) strategy in mid of 2016 as recommended by Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAID) that set goals for HIV epidemic control globally. Studies demonstrated controversial findings on whether UTT strategy improves retention, until now there is limited information on the effect of UTT on retaining HIV patients in our settings.

Methods

a retrospective cohort study was conducted between July 2014 to June 2015 and July 2017 to June 2018 to determine 12 months ART retention among clients newly initiated ART prior and during universal test and treat (UTT) strategy in Geita Region, Tanzania. A total of 13,649 newly clients-initiated ART were extracted from the National AIDS control care and treatment database (CTC2 database). Among these clients 4,624 initiated ART prior the UTT strategy and clients 9,025 start ART after the rollout of UTT strategy. Chi-square test was deployed to determine the significant difference of proportion within categories for each UTT group. Kaplan-Meier curve and long rank test were used to determine significant differences of retention rate prior and during UTT program. Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between exposure variables and ART retention with 95% confidence intervals and p-value of p<0.05.

Results

the overall mean age at ART initiation was 38 years (SD=11.6) with observed significant mean difference between two cohorts (prior UTT, mean=41, SD=11.7 Vs during UTT, mean=37, SD=11.3). The cumulative retention was 83.1% among newly initiated ART clients in both cohorts with significant difference observed between two cohorts (69.7% for prior UTT and 89.9% during UTT, p-value<0.001). The overall person year of follow up was 127,209.3 with an incidence rate of ART retention of 86 per 1000 person-year. It was significantly higher among clients enrolled during UTT strategy than clients enrolled prior UTT strategy (95.1 per 1000 PY Vs 69.6 per 1000 PY, p-value<0.001). The log rank test and Kaplan-Meier survival curve demonstrated clients enrolled in the UTT program had greater probability of retention than clients enrolled prior UTT treatment program (log rank X2 test = 599.2, p value < 0.001). Newly HIV clients who initiated ART after the rollout of UTT strategy had 27% higher likelihood to be retained in care and treatment as compared to clients who were enrolled prior UTT strategy, (HR=1.27; 95% CI [1.21 -1.33], p value < 0.001). Sex, District councils, World health Organisation (WHO) stage and client's visit type were significant factors associated with retention among clients newly initiated to care for both arms.

Conclusion

this results, showed that probability of ART retention increased after the rollout of UTT strategy. There is a need to promote universal test and treat strategy in line with other intervention to control HIV epidemic in Geita, Tanzania.

Universal test and treat in Cameroon: a comparative retrospective analysis of mortality and loss to follow-up before and after a strategic change in approach to HIV care

Introduction

an increasing number of persons living with HIV (PLHIV) are accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) since the adoption of the universal test and treat (UTT) policy by Cameroon in 2016. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of the UTT approach to keep this growing number of PLHIV on a lifelong treatment.

Methods

a retrospective cohort analysis was conducted at the Nkongsamba Regional Hospital between 2002 and 2020, using routine data to compare the cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality between PLHIV initiated on ART under UTT guidelines and those initiated under the standard deferred approach. Chi-squared test was used to compare the risk of attrition between the guideline periods while multiple logistic regression modelling was used to adjust for confounders.

Results

of 1627 PLHIV included for analysis, 756 (46.47%) were enrolled during the era of UTT with 545 (33.54%) initiated on ART on the same day of HIV diagnosis. The transition to the UTT era was associated with an overall reduction in the risk of LTFU by 73% (aOR = 0.27, 95%CI: 0.17 - 0.45). There was modest evidence that the odds of mortality had increased under the UTT policy by about 3-fold (aOR = 2.86, 95%CI: 0.91-8.94). Same-day initiation had no overall effect on LTFU or mortality. LTFU was lower among the same-day initiators in the first 24 months but increased thereafter above the rate among late initiators.

Conclusion

overall ART programme implementation under the UTT has led to a significant decline in LTFU though mortality appeared to have increased. Ongoing efforts to keep patients on long-term treatment should be sustained while other innovative schemes are sought.

The impact of same-day antiretroviral therapy initiation on retention in care and clinical outcomes at four eThekwini clinics, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Same-day initiation (SDI) of antiretroviral therapy (ART) increases ART uptake, however retention in care after ART initiation remains a challenge. Public health behaviours, such as retention in HIV care and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) pose major challenges to reducing new Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) transmission and improving health outcomes among HIV patients.

METHODS

We evaluated 6-month retention in care, and clinical outcomes of an ART cohort comprising of SDI and delayed ART initiators. We conducted a 6 months' observational prospective cohort study of 403 patients who had been initiated on ART. A structured questionnaire was used to abstract data from patient record review which comprised the medical charts, laboratory databases, and Three Interlinked Electronic Registers.Net (TIER.Net). Treatment adherence was ascertained by patient visit constancy for the clinic scheduled visit dates. Retention in care was determined by status at 6 months after ART initiation.

RESULTS

Among the 403 participants enrolled in the study and followed up, 286 (70.97%) and 267 (66.25%) complied with scheduled clinics visits at 3 months and 6 months, respectively. One hundred and thirteen (28.04%) had been loss to follow-up. 17/403 (4.22%) had died and had been out of care after 6 months. 6 (1.49%) had been transferred to other health facilities and 113 (28.04%) had been loss to follow-up. Among those that had been lost to follow-up, 30 (33.63%) deferred SDI while 75 (66.37%) initiated ART under SDI. One hundred and eighty-nine (70.79%) participants who had remained in care were SDI patients while 78 (29.21%) were SDI deferred patients. In the bivariate analysis; gender (OR: 1.672; 95% CI: 1.002-2.791), number of sexual partners (OR: 2.092; 95% CI: 1.07-4.061), age (OR: 0.941; 95% CI: 0.734-2.791), ART start date (OR: 0.078; 95% CI: 0.042-0.141), partner HIV status (OR: 0.621; 95% CI: 0.387-0.995) and the number of hospitalizations after HIV diagnosis (OR: 0.173; 95% CI: 0.092-0.326). were significantly associated with viral load detection. Furthermore, SDI patients who defaulted treatment were 2.4 (95% CI: 1.165-4.928) times more likely to have increased viral load than those who had been returned in care.

CONCLUSION

Viral suppression under SDI proved higher but with poor retention in care. However, the results also emphasise a vital need, to not only streamline processes to increase immediate ART uptake further, but also to ensure retention in care.

Historical visit attendance as predictor of treatment interruption in South African HIV patients: Extension of a validated machine learning model

Retention of antiretroviral (ART) patients is a priority for achieving HIV epidemic control in South Africa. While machine-learning methods are being increasingly utilised to identify high risk populations for suboptimal HIV service utilisation, they are limited in terms of explaining relationships between predictors. To further understand these relationships, we implemented machine learning methods optimised for predictive power and traditional statistical methods. We used routinely collected electronic medical record (EMR) data to evaluate longitudinal predictors of lost-to-follow up (LTFU) and temporal interruptions in treatment (IIT) in the first two years of treatment for ART patients in the Gauteng and North West provinces of South Africa. Of the 191,162 ART patients and 1,833,248 visits analysed, 49% experienced at least one IIT and 85% of those returned for a subsequent clinical visit. Patients iteratively transition in and out of treatment indicating that ART retention in South Africa is likely underestimated. Historical visit attendance is shown to be predictive of IIT using machine learning, log binomial regression and survival analyses. Using a previously developed categorical boosting (CatBoost) algorithm, we demonstrate that historical visit attendance alone is able to predict almost half of next missed visits. With the addition of baseline demographic and clinical features, this model is able to predict up to 60% of next missed ART visits with a sensitivity of 61.9% (95% CI: 61.5-62.3%), specificity of 66.5% (95% CI: 66.4-66.7%), and positive predictive value of 19.7% (95% CI: 19.5-19.9%). While the full usage of this model is relevant for settings where infrastructure exists to extract EMR data and run computations in real-time, historical visits attendance alone can be used to identify those at risk of disengaging from HIV care in the absence of other behavioural or observable risk factors.

Strategies to improve antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and early engagement among men in sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review of interventions in the era of universal treatment

OBJECTIVES

Men in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have lower rates of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and higher rates of early default than women. Little is known about effective interventions to improve men's outcomes. We conducted a scoping review of interventions aimed to increase ART initiation and/or early retention among men in SSA since universal treatment policies were implemented.

METHODS

Three databases, HIV conference databases and grey literature were searched for studies published between January 2016 to May 2021 that reported on initiation and/or early retention among men. Eligibility criteria included: participants in SSA, data collected after universal treatment policies were implemented (2016-2021), quantitative data on ART initiation and/or early retention for males, general male population (not exclusively focused on key populations), intervention study (report outcomes for at least one non-standard service delivery strategy), and written in English.

RESULTS

Of the 4351 sources retrieved, 15 (reporting on 16 interventions) met inclusion criteria. Of the 16 interventions, only two (2/16, 13%) exclusively focused on men. Five (5/16, 31%) were randomised control trials (RCT), one (1/16, 6%) was a retrospective cohort study, and 10 (10/16, 63%) did not have comparison groups. Thirteen (13/16, 81%) interventions measured ART initiation and six (6/16, 37%) measured early retention. Outcome definitions and time frames varied greatly, with seven (7/16, 44%) not specifying time frames at all. Five types of interventions were represented: optimising ART services at health facilities, community-based ART services, outreach support (such as reminders and facility escort), counselling and/or peer support, and conditional incentives. Across all intervention types, ART initiation rates ranged from 27% to 97% and early retention from 47% to 95%.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite years of data of men's suboptimal ART outcomes, there is little high-quality evidence on interventions to increase men's ART initiation or early retention in SSA. Additional randomised or quasi-experimental studies are urgently needed.

Self-Management of Diabetes and Associated Factors among Patients Seeking Chronic Care in Tshwane, South Africa: A Facility-Based Study

The burden of diabetes continues to increase in South Africa and a significant number of diabetes patients present at public primary healthcare facilities with uncontrolled glucose. We conducted a facility-based cross-sectional study to determine the diabetes self-management practices and associated factors among out-patients in Tshwane, South Africa. An adapted validated questionnaire was used to collect data on sociodemography, diabetes knowledge, and summaries of diabetes self-management activities measured in the previous seven days, and over the last eight weeks. Data were analysed using STATA 17. A final sample of 402 diabetes out-patients was obtained (mean age: 43 ± 12 years) and over half of them were living in poor households. The mean total diabetes self-management of score was 41.5 ± 8.2, with a range of 21 to 71. Almost two thirds of patients had average self-management of diabetes, and 55% had average diabetes knowledge. Twenty-two percent of patients had uncontrolled glucose, hypertension (24%) was the common comorbidity, and diabetic neuropathy (22%) was the most common complication. Sex [male: AOR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.34-0.90], race [Coloured: AOR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.69-4.77 and White: AOR = 3.84, 95% CI: 1.46-10.1], marital status [divorced: AOR = 3.41, 95% CI: 1.13-10.29], social support [average: AOR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.05-6.00 and good: AOR = 4.49, 95% CI: 1.61-7.57], body mass index [obesity: AOR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.10-0.95], diabetes knowledge [average: AOR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.33-0.10 and good: AOR = 1.86, 95% CI: 0.71-4.91], and uncontrolled glucose [AOR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.47-5.98] were factors independently predictive of diabetes self-management. This study emphasizes that the self-management of diabetes was mostly on average among patients and was associated with the aforementioned factors. Innovative approaches are perhaps needed to make diabetes education more effective. Face-to-face sessions delivered generally during clinic visits should be better tailored to the individual circumstances of diabetes patients. Considerations should be given to the options of leveraging information technology to ensure the continuity of diabetes education beyond clinic visits. Additional effort is also needed to meet the self-care needs of all patients.

Validation and Improvement of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Interruptions in Antiretroviral Treatment in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Machine learning algorithms are increasingly being used to inform HIV prevention and detection strategies. We validated and extended a previously developed machine learning model for patient retention on antiretroviral therapy in a new geographic catchment area in South Africa.

METHODS

We compared the ability of an adaptive boosting algorithm to predict interruption in treatment (IIT) in 2 South African cohorts from the Free State and Mpumalanga and Gauteng and North West (GA/NW) provinces. We developed a novel set of predictive features for the GA/NW cohort using a categorical boosting model. We evaluated the ability of the model to predict IIT over all visits and across different periods within a patient's treatment trajectory.

RESULTS

When predicting IIT, the GA/NW and Free State and Mpumalanga models demonstrated a sensitivity of 60% and 61%, respectively, able to correctly predict nearly two-thirds of all missed visits with a positive predictive value of 18% and 19%. Using predictive features generated from the GA/NW cohort, the categorical boosting model correctly predicted 22,119 of a total of 35,985 missed next visits, yielding a sensitivity of 62%, specificity of 67%, and positive predictive value of 20%. Model performance was highest when tested on visits within the first 6 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning algorithms may be useful in informing tools to increase antiretroviral therapy patient retention and efficiency of HIV care interventions. This is particularly relevant in developing countries where health data systems are being strengthened to collect data on a scale that is large enough to apply novel analytical methods.

Undernutrition increased the risk of loss to follow-up among adults living with HIV on ART in Northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

This study aims to examine the effect of undernutrition on loss to follow-up (LTFU) in adults living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia. We conducted an institution-based retrospective cohort study using medical records of 844 adults living with HIV receiving ART between June 2014 and June 2020 at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital (Northwest Ethiopia). The effect of undernutrition on LTFU was examined using a proportional hazards regression model after adjusting potential confounders. The significance level was set at p < 0.05. At the end of the study period, 109 (12.9%) participants were considered LTFU, with an overall LTFU incidence of 5.3 per 100 person-years (95% CI 4.4, 6.4). The incidence of LTFU was higher in undernourished participants (8.2 per 100 person-years) compared to well-nourished participants (4.3 per 100 person-years). After adjusting for potential confounders, the adjusted risk of LTFU among undernourished participants was two times higher than in their well-nourished counterparts (AHR [adjusted hazard ratio]: 2.1, 95% CI 1.4, 3.2). This study found that undernutrition significantly increased the risk of LTFU among adults living with HIV on ART.

A cervical cancer biorepository for pharmacogenomics research in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Research infrastructures such as biorepositories are essential to facilitate genomics and its growing applications in health research and translational medicine in Africa. Using a cervical cancer cohort, this study describes the establishment of a biorepository consisting of biospecimens and matched phenotype data for use in genomic association analysis and pharmacogenomics research.

METHOD

Women aged > 18 years with a recent histologically confirmed cervical cancer diagnosis were recruited. A workflow pipeline was developed to collect, store, and analyse biospecimens comprising donor recruitment and informed consent, followed by data and biospecimen collection, nucleic acid extraction, storage of genomic DNA, genetic characterization, data integration, data analysis and data interpretation. The biospecimen and data storage infrastructure included shared -20 °C to -80 °C freezers, lockable cupboards, secured access-controlled laptop, password protected online data storage on OneDrive software. The biospecimen or data storage, transfer and sharing were compliant with the local and international biospecimen and data protection laws and policies, to ensure donor privacy, trust, and benefits for the wider community.

RESULTS

This initial establishment of the biorepository recruited 410 women with cervical cancer. The mean (± SD) age of the donors was 52 (± 12) years, comprising stage I (15%), stage II (44%), stage III (47%) and stage IV (6%) disease. The biorepository includes whole blood and corresponding genomic DNA from 311 (75.9%) donors, and tumour biospecimens and corresponding tumour DNA from 258 (62.9%) donors. Datasets included information on sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle, family history, clinical information, and HPV genotype. Treatment response was followed up for 12 months, namely, treatment-induced toxicities, survival vs. mortality, and disease status, that is disease-free survival, progression or relapse, 12 months after therapy commencement.

CONCLUSION

The current work highlights a framework for developing a cancer genomics cohort-based biorepository on a limited budget. Such a resource plays a central role in advancing genomics research towards the implementation of personalised management of cancer.

Experiences in receiving financial incentives to access HIV care in Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

Financial incentivisation has been used to improve all steps of the HIV cascade with varying results. Most studies conducted on the matter are of a quantitative nature, not giving enough space for in-depth understanding as to why financial incentives work or do not work.

Objectives

To describe experiences with, and opinions on, the use of financial incentives to promote linkage to and retention in care from the perspective of people living with HIV.

Method

We performed a qualitative cross-sectional study. In-depth interviews were conducted with adult men and women with HIV accessing health services or research study visits. After codebook development, NVivo 12 software was used to code and analyse the data.

Results

Through the provision of financial incentives, participants were able to cover basic needs. However, some deemed financial incentives as a form of income rather than a nudge to spark interest in changing their health behaviour. Participants communicated that a need for some type of incentive exists and recommended food vouchers as the best possible solution.

Conclusion

Financial incentivisation can facilitate engagement in the HIV care continuum through providing support to people living with HIV.

What this study adds

This study complements the body of research that explores the feasibility of using incentives and which of them may be most beneficial in encouraging patients with HIV to enter into and sustain HIV care.

Loss to follow-up in "test and treat era" and its predictors among HIV-positive adults receiving ART in Northwest Ethiopia: Institution-based cohort study

Background

People living with HIV/AIDS are enrolled in lifelong Anti-Retroviral Treatment (ART) irrespective of their clinical staging as well as CD4 cell count. Although this "Universal Test and Treat" strategy of ART was found to have numerous benefits, loss from follow-up and poor retention remained a long-term challenge for the achievement of ART program targets. Hence, this study is aimed at addressing the much-needed effect of the test and treat strategy on the incidence of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in Ethiopia.

Method and materials

An institution-based follow-up study was conducted on 513 adults (age ≥15) who enrolled in ART at a public health institution in Bahir Dar City, Northwest Ethiopia. Data were extracted from the charts of selected patients and exported to Stata 14.2 software for analysis. Basic socio-demographic, epidemiological, and clinical characteristics were described. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the loss to follow-up free (survival) probability of HIV-positive adults at 6, 12, 24, and 48 months of ART therapy. We fitted a multivariable Cox model to determine the statistically significant predictors of LTFU.

Result

The incidence density of LTFU was 9.7 per 100 person-years of observation (95% CI: 7.9-11.9 per 100 PYO). Overall, LTFU is higher in the rapid ART initiation (24% in rapid initiated vs. 11.3% in lately initiated, AHR 2.08, P = 0.004), in males (23% males vs. 14.7% females, AHR1.96, P = 0.004), in singles (34% single vs. 11% married, with AHR1.83, P = 0.044), in non-disclosed HIV-status (33% non-disclosed 11% disclosed, AHR 2.00 p = 0.001). Patients with poor/fair ART adherence were also identified as another risk group of LTFU (37% in poor vs. 10.5% in good adherence group, AHR 4.35, P = 0.001).

Conclusion

The incidence of LTFU in this universal test and treat era was high, and the highest figure was observed in the first 6 months. Immediate initiation of ART in a universal test and treat strategy shall be implemented cautiously to improve patient retention and due attention shall be given to those high-risk patients.

Delayed ART initiation in "Test and Treat era" and its associated factors among adults receiving antiretroviral therapy at public health institutions in Northwest Ethiopia: A multicenter cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has shown promising effects on the reduction of new HIV infection as well as HIV-related morbidity and mortality. In order to boost the effect of ART on ending HIV epidemics by 2030, the World Health Organization (WHO) indeed introduced a universal test and treat strategy in 2015 that recommends rapid (within seven days) initiation of ART for all HIV-positive patients. However, in low-income countries, a substantial number of HIV-positive patients were not enrolled in time, and information on delayed ART initiation status in Ethiopia is limited.

METHOD

A multicenter cross-sectional study was conducted on 400 HIV-positive adults receiving ART at public health institutions in Bahir Dar city, Northwest Ethiopia. A structured checklist was used to extract data from the patient's medical record. Data was entered into Epi-data version 4.6 and exported to SPSS version 26 for further analysis. Both simple and multivariable binary logistic regressions were executed, and variables with a p-value < 0.05 in the final model were considered significant predictors of delayed ART initiation.

RESULTS

The magnitude of delayed ART initiation was 39% (95% CI: 34%-44%). Being male [Adjusted odds ratio(AOR) = 1.99, 95%CI:1.3-3.2], having opportunistic infections (OIs) [AOR = 2.50, 95%CI:1.4-4.6], having other chronic diseases [AOR = 3.70,95%CI:1.7-8.3], substance abuse [AOR = 3.79, 95%CI: 1.9-7.4], having ambulatory functional status [AOR = 5.38, 95%CI: 1.4-9.6] and didn't have other HIV-positive family member [AOR = 1.85, 95%CI: 1.2-2.9] increases the odds of delayed ART initiation.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The burden of delayed ART initiation is found to be high. The presence of OIs and other chronic problems, substance abuse, ambulatory functional status, being male, and not having other HIV-positive family members were identified as significant predictors of delayed ART initiation. Special emphasis needs to be considered for those individuals with the identified risk factors.

Retention in care and predictors of attrition among HIV-infected patients who started antiretroviral therapy in Kinshasa, DRC, before and after the implementation of the 'treat-all' strategy

The retention of patients in care is a key pillar of the continuum of HIV care. It has been suggested that the implementation of a "treat-all" strategy may favor attrition (death or lost to follow-up, as opposed to retention), specifically in the subgroup of asymptomatic people living with HIV (PLWH) with high CD4 counts. Attrition in HIV care could mitigate the success of universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. We performed a retrospective study of PLWH at least 15 years old initiating ART in 85 HIV care centers in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), between 2010 and 2019, with the objective of measuring attrition and to define factors associated with it. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics recorded at ART initiation included sex, age, weight, height, WHO HIV stage, pregnancy, baseline CD4 cell count, start date of ART, and baseline and last ART regimen. Attrition was defined as death or loss to follow-up (LTFU). LTFU was defined as "not presenting to an HIV care center for at least 180 days after the date of a last missed visit, without a notification of death or transfer". Kaplan-Meier curves were used to present attrition data, and mixed effects Cox regression models determined factors associated with attrition. The results compared were before and after the implementation of the "treat-all" strategy. A total of 15,762 PLWH were included in the study. Overall, retention in HIV care was 83% at twelve months and 77% after two years of follow-up. The risk of attrition increased with advanced HIV disease and the size of the HIV care center. Time to ART initiation greater than seven days after diagnosis and Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis was associated with a reduced risk of attrition. The implementation of the "treat-all" strategy modified the clinical characteristics of PLWH toward higher CD4 cell counts and a greater proportion of patients at WHO stages I and II at treatment initiation. Initiation of ART after the implementation of the 'treat all" strategy was associated with higher attrition (p<0.0001) and higher LTFU (p<0.0001). Attrition has remained high in recent years. The implementation of the "treat-all" strategy was associated with higher attrition and LTFU in our study. Interventions to improve early and ongoing commitment to care are needed, with specific attention to high-risk groups to improve ART coverage and limit HIV transmission.

Rates of viral suppression in a cohort of people with stable HIV from two community models of ART delivery versus facility-based HIV care in Lusaka, Zambia: a cluster-randomised, non-inferiority trial nested in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

BACKGROUND

Non-facility-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery for people with stable HIV might increase sustainable ART coverage in low-income and middle-income countries. Within the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial, two interventions, home-based delivery (HBD) and adherence clubs (AC), which included groups of 15-30 participants who met at a communal venue, were compared with standard of care (SoC). In this trial we looked at the effectiveness and feasibility of these alternative models of care. Specifically, this trial aimed to assess whether these models of care had similar virological suppression to that of SoC 12 months after enrolment.

METHODS

This was a three-arm, cluster-randomised, non-inferiority trial, done in two urban communities in Lusaka, Zambia included in the HPTN 071 trial. The two communities were split into zones, which were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to the three treatment strategies: 35 zones to the SoC group, 35 zones to the HBD group, and 34 zones to the AC group. ART and adherence support were delivered once every 3 months at home for the HBD group, in groups of 15-30 people in the AC group, or in the clinic for the SoC group. Adults with HIV who were receiving first-line ART for at least 6 months, virally suppressed using national HIV guidelines in the last 12 months, had no other health conditions requiring the clinicians attention, live in the study catchment area, and provided written informed consent, were eligible for inclusion. The primary endpoint was viral suppression at 12 months (with a 6 month final measurement window [ie, 9-15 months]), defined as less than 1000 HIV RNA copies per mL, with a non-inferiority margin of 5%.

FINDINGS

Between May 5 and Dec 19, 2017, 9900 individuals were screened for inclusion, of whom 2489 (25·1%) participants were enrolled into the trial: 781 (31%) in the SoC group, 852 (34%) in the HBD group, and 856 (34%) in the AC group. A higher proportion of participants had viral load measurements in the primary outcome window in the HBD (581 [61%]of 852 participants) and AC (485 [57%] of 856 participants) groups than in the SoC (390 [50%] of 781 patients) group (p=0·0021). Of the 1096 missing observations, 152 (13·8%) were attributable to either deaths (25 [16%] participants), relocations (37 [24%] participants), or lost to follow-up (90 [59%]); 690 (63·0%) participants had viral load results outside the window period; and 254 (23·2%) did not have a viral load result. The prevalence of viral suppression was estimated to be 98·3% (95% CI 96·6 to 99·7) in the SoC group, 98·7% (97·5 to 99·6) in the HBD group, and 99·2% (98·4 to 99·8) in the AC group. This gave an estimated risk difference of 0·3% (95% CI -1·5 to 2·4) for the HBD group compared with the SoC group and 0·9% (-0·8 to 2·8) for the AC group compared with the SoC group. There was strong evidence (p<0·0001) that both community ART models were non-inferior to the SoC group (p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Community models of ART delivery were as effective as facility-based care in terms of viral suppression.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, The International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institute of Mental Health, and President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Retention in care and viral suppression after same-day ART initiation: One-year outcomes of the SLATE I and II individually randomized clinical trials in South Africa

Introduction

Same‐day initiation (SDI) of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV consistently increases ART uptake, but concerns remain about higher attrition from care after initiation. We analysed 12‐month retention in the SLATE SDI trials.

Methods

SLATE I (Simplified Algorithms for Treatment Eligibility I, enrolment 06 March–28 July 2017) and SLATE II (enrolment 14 March–18 September 2018) were individually randomized trials at public outpatient clinics in Johannesburg that enrolled patients not yet on ART and administered the SLATE I or II algorithm. This included a symptom self‐report, medical history, brief physical examination and readiness questionnaire to assess the eligibility for SDI. The studies compared the offer of SDI using the SLATE algorithms to standard of care initiation procedures. ART uptake and early retention were previously reported. Using routine clinic records, we conducted a pooled analysis of retention in care and HIV viral suppression 14 months after study enrolment, a time point equivalent to 12 months potential on ART, with an additional month allowed on either end to initiate ART and to return for the 12‐month visit.

Results and discussion

We enrolled 1193 study participants (standard arms, n = 599, 50%; intervention arms, n = 594, 50%) and analysed by originally assigned groups. By 14 months after enrolment, 50% of intervention arm patients and 46% of standard arm patients remained in care at the initiating site (crude risk difference 4% (95% confidence interval −1%‐10%); crude relative risk 1.10 (0.97–1.23), with similar viral suppression between arms. Observed attrition from care at site by 14 months was high in both study arms, but we found no evidence that the offer of SDI led to greater overall attrition or lower rates of viral suppression 1 year after starting ART and may have generated small improvements. SDI may have shifted some attrition from before to after dispensing of the first dose of medication.

Conclusions

An offer of SDI of ART, following a carefully designed protocol to identify patients who are eligible and ready to start treatment, is not inherently associated with an overall increase in patient attrition from care and leads to similar rates of viral suppression.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02891135, registered 01 September 2016. First participant enrolled 06 March 2017 in South Africa. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03315013, registered 19 October 2017. First participant enrolled 14 March 2018.