Interpretation of Population Health Metrics: Environmental Lead Exposure as Exemplary Case

Burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to lead exposure in China: a comprehensive analysis of data from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) caused by lead pollution exposure in China from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019), this research examines the changes in the number of CVD deaths, deaths rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and DALY rates, as well as their age-normalization rates, due to lead pollution exposure in China from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint was used to estimate average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and reflect the time change trend of the burden of CVD caused by lead pollution exposure in China, the world and different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions.

RESULTS

The age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALY rate showed a decreasing trend in China from 1990 to 2019, with an average annual decrease of -1.17% (95% confidence interval (CI): -3.49~-3.14, P<0.05) and -1.90% (95% CI: -2.04~-1.75, P<0.05), respectively. In 2019, age-standardized CVD mortality and DALY rates attributed to lead exposure in China were higher than those in the global, high-SDI, medium-high SDI and moderate SDI regions. In 2019, 5.94% of CVD deaths in China were caused by lead exposure. Compared to 1990, the number of attributable deaths and mortality increased by 0.73% and 0.44%, respectively, and the attributable DALY and DALY rates increased by 30.04% and 8.22%, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the mortality rate and DALY rate of males were higher than those of females, and the mortality rate and DALY rate increased with the increase of age, reaching the highest in the age group of 70 years and above.

CONCLUSION

In 2019, the standardized death rate of CVD and the standardized DALY rate attributed to lead pollution exposure in China were higher than those in the global regions with high SDI, medium-high SDI and medium SDI. The findings highlight demographic disparities in CVD deaths and DALYs attributable to lead exposure, with males and the elderly identified as high-risk groups.

Lead-associated mortality in the US 1999-2020: a time-stratified analysis of a national cohort

OBJECTIVES

We undertook time-stratified analyses of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the US to assess time trends (1999-2020) in the associations of blood lead (BL) with blood pressure, mortality, the BL-associated population attributable fraction (PAF).

METHODS

Vital status of participants, 20-79 years old at enrolment, was ascertained via the National Death Index. Regressions, mediation analyses and PAF were multivariable adjusted and standardized to 2020 US Census data.

RESULTS

In time-stratified analyses, BL decreased from 1.76 μg/dl in 1999-2004 to 0.93 μg/dl in 2017-2020, while the proportion of individuals with BL < 1 μg/dl increased from 19.2% to 63.0%. Total mortality was unrelated to BL (hazard ratio (HR) for a fourfold BL increment: 1.05 [95% confidence interval, CI: 0.93-1.17]). The HR for cardiovascular death was 1.44 (1.01-2.07) in the 1999-2000 cycle, but lost significance thereafter. BL was directly related to cardiovascular mortality, whereas the indirect BL pathway via BP was not significant. Low socioeconomic status (SES) was directly related to BL and cardiovascular mortality, but the indirect SES pathway via BL lost significance in 2007-2010. From 1999-2004 to 2017-2020, cardiovascular PAF decreased ( P  < 0.001) from 7.80% (0.17-14.4%) to 2.50% (0.05-4.68%) and number of lead-attributable cardiovascular deaths from 53 878 (1167-99 253) to 7539 (160-14 108).

CONCLUSION

Due to implementation of strict environmental policies, lead exposure is no longer associated with total mortality, and the mildly increased cardiovascular mortality is not associated with blood lead via blood pressure in the United States.

Assessing tobacco-related ischemic stroke in Pakistan (1990-2019): Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study

INTRODUCTION

This study analyzes the impact of active smoking and secondhand smoke on the ischemic stroke burden of Pakistan, 1990-2019.

METHODS

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of ischemic stroke-related indicators in Pakistan, including the number of deaths, mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), DALY rates, and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Joinpoint analysis was applied to assess sex-specific temporal trends in the burden of active smoking and secondhand smoke in Pakistan and regions of Pakistan. These assessments incorporated the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and we have made comparative analyses of epidemiological differences between active smoking and secondhand smoke exposure.

RESULTS

The burden of ischemic stroke related to tobacco use is presented in terms of the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) per 100000 population. The results (ASMR/ASDR) for Pakistan were 6.04/130.81, in the middle SDI region 7.69/176.54, and low-middle SDI region 5.64/124.22. Pakistan's ASMR is higher than the global average of 5.85, while ASDR is lower than the global average of 140.23. From 1990 to 2019, a downward trend in both ASMR and ASDR was observed, indicating progress in controlling tobacco-related stroke burdens. Individuals aged ≥70 years experienced the highest rates of stroke (ASMR: 66.31; ASDR: 1091.20). Gender disparities were evident: men were more affected by active smoking (ASMR: 3.08; ASDR: 78.47) than women (ASMR: 0.79; ASDR: 20.76), while women faced a higher burden from secondhand smoke (ASMR: 0.66; ASDR: 16.33) compared to men (ASMR: 0.79; ASDR: 9.93). Regional differences within Pakistan show fluctuating death and DALY rates. Notably, an increasing trend in female ASDR due to secondhand smoke in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Region (annual percentage change, APC=0.17 from 2010 to 2019) calls for focused health interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

The study finds ASMR for tobacco-related ischemic stroke in Pakistan exceeds global averages, with significant gender and age disparities in exposure to smoke, highlighting the need for targeted health interventions.

Global burden and influencing factors of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes in adults aged 20-59 years, 1990-2019

Population structure and lifestyles may have contributed to the epidemiological status of Chronic Kidney Disease due to Type 2 Diabetes (CKD-T2D). This study is a secondary data analysis. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, we describe the changes in CKD-T2D burden and its influencing factors in the population aged 20-59 years from 1990 to 2019. Globally, the incidence, death, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rate of CKD-T2D showed an upward trend and increased with age, and the burden in males was higher than that in females. Population growth and aging were important driving factors for the increase of CKD-T2D DALY burden, while high systolic blood pressure and high body-mass index were the primary attributable risk factors. High body-mass index exhibited higher contributions to high Socioeconomic Development Index (SDI) countries, whereas low SDI countries were more impacted by high systolic blood pressure. The population attributable fraction of CKD-T2D DALY caused by high body-mass index was positively correlated with SDI, while high temperature and lead exposure were negatively correlated. Therefore, strengthening disease screening for people aged 20-59 years and formulating early intervention measures based on the level of socioeconomic development may effectively alleviate the burden of CKD-T2D.

Association of low-level lead exposure with all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in US adults with hypertension: evidence from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2010

BACKGROUND

To explore the association of low-level lead exposure with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among hypertensive patients.

METHODS

This cohort study enrolled 6453 adults with hypertension from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2010 and followed mortality information through December 31, 2019. The baseline population were divided into four groups based on quartiles of blood lead levels (Q1: < 1.2 μg/dL, Q2: 1.2-1.6 μg/dL, Q3: 1.7-2.4 μg/dL, Q4: 2.5-4.9 μg/dL). The correlation of blood lead levels to mortality was investigated by Kaplan-Meier survival curves, restricted cubic spline (RCS), proportional hazard regression model, and subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 136 (interquartile range 113, 164) months, a total of 1943 (30.1%) deaths were documented, among which 553 (28.5%) were due to CVD. Blood lead showed a linear dose-response relationship with all-cause and CVD mortality. After adequate adjusting for confounders, the risk of all-cause death rose by 23% for each unit increase in continuous variable blood lead (hazard ratio (HR): 1.23; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.16-1.30). When blood lead was a quartile group variable, participants in the Q 4 group had a 73% higher risk of death than those in the Q 1 group (HR:1.73; 95% CI: 1.43-2.10; P for trend < 0.001). The association for CVD mortality was analogous. The concordant results were achieved in the subgroup analysis.

CONCLUSION

Elevated blood lead levels were strongly associated with an increased all-cause and CVD mortality in adults with hypertension, even at the reference range of blood lead.

Public and occupational health risks related to lead exposure updated according to present-day blood lead levels

Lead is an environmental hazard that should be addressed worldwide. Over time, human lead exposure in the western world has decreased drastically to levels comparable to those among humans living in the preindustrial era, who were mainly exposed to natural sources of lead. To re-evaluate the potential health risks associated with present-day lead exposure, a two-pronged approach was applied. First, recently published population metrics describing the adverse health effects associated with lead exposure at the population level were critically assessed. Next, the key results of the Study for Promotion of Health in Recycling Lead (SPHERL; NCT02243904) were summarized and put in perspective with those of the published population metrics. To our knowledge, SPHERL is the first prospective study that accounted for interindividual variability between people with respect to their vulnerability to the toxic effects of lead exposure by assessing the participants' health status before and after occupational lead exposure. The overall conclusion of this comprehensive review is that mainstream ideas about the public and occupational health risks related to lead exposure urgently need to be updated because a large portion of the available literature became obsolete given the sharp decrease in exposure levels over the past 40 years.

Relative and Absolute Risk to Guide the Management of Pulse Pressure, an Age-Related Cardiovascular Risk Factor

BACKGROUND

Pulse pressure (PP) reflects the age-related stiffening of the central arteries, but no study addressed the management of the PP-related risk over the human lifespan.

METHODS

In 4,663 young (18-49 years) and 7,185 older adults (≥50 years), brachial PP was recorded over 24 hours. Total mortality and all major cardiovascular events (MACEs) combined were coprimary endpoints. Cardiovascular death, coronary events, and stroke were secondary endpoints.

RESULTS

In young adults (median follow-up, 14.1 years; mean PP, 45.1 mm Hg), greater PP was not associated with absolute risk; the endpoint rates were ≤2.01 per 1,000 person-years. The adjusted hazard ratios expressed per 10-mm Hg PP increments were less than unity (P ≤ 0.027) for MACE (0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.96) and cardiovascular death (0.33; 95% CI, 0.11-0.75). In older adults (median follow-up, 13.1 years; mean PP, 52.7 mm Hg), the endpoint rates, expressing absolute risk, ranged from 22.5 to 45.4 per 1,000 person-years and the adjusted hazard ratios, reflecting relative risk, from 1.09 to 1.54 (P < 0.0001). The PP-related relative risks of death, MACE, and stroke decreased >3-fold from age 55 to 75 years, whereas absolute risk rose by a factor 3.

CONCLUSIONS

From 50 years onwards, the PP-related relative risk decreases, whereas absolute risk increases. From a lifecourse perspective, young adulthood provides a window of opportunity to manage risk factors and prevent target organ damage as forerunner of premature death and MACE. In older adults, treatment should address absolute risk, thereby extending life in years and quality.

Two-Year Responses of Heart Rate and Heart Rate Variability to First Occupational Lead Exposure

[Figure: see text].

Two-Year Responses of Office and Ambulatory Blood Pressure to First Occupational Lead Exposure

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Lead exposure causing hypertension is the mechanism commonly assumed to set off premature death and cardiovascular complications. However, at current exposure levels in the developed world, the link between hypertension and lead remains unproven. In the Study for Promotion of Health in Recycling Lead (URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02243904), we recorded the 2-year responses of office blood pressure (average of 5 consecutive readings) and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure to first occupational lead exposure in workers newly employed at lead recycling plants. Blood lead (BL) was measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (detection limit 0.5 µg/dL). Hypertension was defined according to the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline. Statistical methods included multivariable-adjusted mixed models with participants modeled as a random effect and interval-censored Cox regression. Office blood pressure was measured in 267 participants (11.6% women, mean age at enrollment, 28.6 years) and ambulatory blood pressure in 137 at 2 follow-up visits. Geometric means were 4.09 µg/dL for baseline BL and 3.30 for the last-follow-up-to-baseline BL ratio. Fully adjusted changes in systolic/diastolic blood pressure associated with a doubling of the BL ratio were 0.36/0.28 mm Hg (95% CI, −0.55 to 1.27/−0.48 to 1.04 mm Hg) for office blood pressure and −0.18/0.11 mm Hg (−2.09 to 1.74/−1.05 to 1.27 mm Hg) for 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure. The adjusted hazard ratios of moving up across hypertension categories for a doubling in BL were 1.13 (0.93–1.38) and 0.84 (0.57–1.22) for office blood pressure and ambulatory blood pressure, respectively. In conclusion, the 2-year blood pressure responses and incident hypertension were not associated with the BL increase on first occupational exposure.