Prognostic Value and Relative Cutoffs of Triglycerides Predicting Cardiovascular Outcome in a Large Regional-Based Italian Database

BACKGROUND

Despite longstanding epidemiologic data on the association between increased serum triglycerides and cardiovascular events, the exact level at which risk begins to rise is unclear. The Working Group on Uric Acid and Cardiovascular Risk of the Italian Society of Hypertension has conceived a protocol aimed at searching for the prognostic cutoff value of triglycerides in predicting cardiovascular events in a large regional-based Italian cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among 14 189 subjects aged 18 to 95 years followed-up for 11.2 (5.3-13.2) years, the prognostic cutoff value of triglycerides, able to discriminate combined cardiovascular events, was identified by means of receiver operating characteristic curve. The conventional (150 mg/dL) and the prognostic cutoff values of triglycerides were used as independent predictors in separate multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum uric acid, arterial hypertension, diabetes, chronic renal disease, smoking habit, and use of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs. During 139 375 person-years of follow-up, 1601 participants experienced cardiovascular events. Receiver operating characteristic curve showed that 89 mg/dL (95% CI, 75.8-103.3, sensitivity 76.6, specificity 34.1, P<0.0001) was the prognostic cutoff value for cardiovascular events. Both cutoff values of triglycerides, the conventional and the newly identified, were accepted as multivariate predictors in separate Cox analyses, the hazard ratios being 1.211 (95% CI, 1.063-1.378, P=0.004) and 1.150 (95% CI, 1.021-1.295, P=0.02), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower (89 mg/dL) than conventional (150 mg/dL) prognostic cutoff value of triglycerides for cardiovascular events does exist and is associated with increased cardiovascular risk in an Italian cohort.

Prognostic cardiovascular cut-off values of dietary caffeine in a cohort of unselected men and women from general population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Among an unselected cohort of men and women from general population (n = 1.668), the prognostic effects of being over the cut-off of all-source dietary caffeine intake were studied.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prognostic cut-off values for coronary events, incident heart failure (HF), cerebrovascular events (CBV) and arrhythmic events (ARR) were found by means of the receiver-operating-characteristic curves method. Those for HF (>230 mg/day), for CBV (>280 mg/day) and for ARR (>280 mg/day) were confirmed in multivariate Cox analysis adjusted for age, body mass index, circulating thyroid hormone, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking, dietary intake of ethanol, basal heart rate, low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, forced expiratory volume in 1 s and β-blocking therapy. Being over these cut-off values was associated to a reduced hazard ratio during the follow-up in the whole cohort (HR 0.678, 95%CI 0.567-0.908, p = 0.009 for HF; 0.651, 95%CI 0.428-0.994, p = 0.018 for CBV; 0.395, 95%CI 0.395-0.933, p = 0.022 for ARR) and in men (0.652, 0.442-0.961, p = 0.029; 0.432, 0.201-0.927, p = 0.03; 0.553, 0.302-1.000, p = 0.05, respectively) but not in women. The caffeine-induced risk decrease observed in the whole cohort is therefore entirely attributable to men. In the case of HF, heart rate entered the risk equation in a positive manner without rejecting caffeine. The -163C>A polymorphism of the CYP1A2 gene, codifying for ability to metabolize caffeine, introduced in sensitivity analysis, did not alter the prognostic models.

CONCLUSION

Men introducing >230 mg/day caffeine show a reduced risk of HF, and those introducing >280 mg/day a reduced risk of CBV and ARR independent of genetic pattern.

Derivation of an Outcome-Driven Threshold for Aortic Pulse Wave Velocity: An Individual-Participant Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) predicts cardiovascular events (CVEs) and total mortality (TM), but previous studies proposing actionable PWV thresholds have limited generalizability. This individual-participant meta-analysis is aimed at defining, testing calibration, and validating an outcome-driven threshold for PWV, using 2 populations studies, respectively, for derivation IDCARS (International Database of Central Arterial Properties for Risk Stratification) and replication MONICA (Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease Health Survey - Copenhagen).

METHODS

A risk-carrying PWV threshold for CVE and TM was defined by multivariable Cox regression, using stepwise increasing PWV thresholds and by determining the threshold yielding a 5-year risk equivalent with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg. The predictive performance of the PWV threshold was assessed by computing the integrated discrimination improvement and the net reclassification improvement.

RESULTS

In well-calibrated models in IDCARS, the risk-carrying PWV thresholds converged at 9 m/s (10 m/s considering the anatomic pulse wave travel distance). With full adjustments applied, the threshold predicted CVE (hazard ratio [CI]: 1.68 [1.15-2.45]) and TM (1.61 [1.01-2.55]) in IDCARS and in MONICA (1.40 [1.09-1.79] and 1.55 [1.23-1.95]). In IDCARS and MONICA, the predictive accuracy of the threshold for both end points was ≈0.75. Integrated discrimination improvement was significant for TM in IDCARS and for both TM and CVE in MONICA, whereas net reclassification improvement was not for any outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

PWV integrates multiple risk factors into a single variable and might replace a large panel of traditional risk factors. Exceeding the outcome-driven PWV threshold should motivate clinicians to stringent management of risk factors, in particular hypertension, which over a person's lifetime causes stiffening of the elastic arteries as waypoint to CVE and death.

The Results of the URRAH (Uric Acid Right for Heart Health) Project: A Focus on Hyperuricemia in Relation to Cardiovascular and Kidney Disease and its Role in Metabolic Dysregulation

The relationship between Serum Uric Acid (UA) and Cardiovascular (CV) diseases has already been extensively evaluated, and it was found to be an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality but also acute coronary syndrome, stroke and heart failure. Similarly, also many papers have been published on the association between UA and kidney function, while less is known on the role of UA in metabolic derangement and, particularly, in metabolic syndrome. Despite the substantial number of publications on the topic, there are still some elements of doubt: (1) the better cut-off to be used to refine CV risk (also called CV cut-off); (2) the needing for a correction of UA values for kidney function; and (3) the better definition of its role in metabolic syndrome: is UA simply a marker, a bystander or a key pathological element of metabolic dysregulation?. The Uric acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) project was designed by the Working Group on uric acid and CV risk of the Italian Society of Hypertension to answer the first question. After the first papers that individuates specific cut-off for different CV disease, subsequent articles have been published responding to the other relevant questions. This review will summarise most of the results obtained so far from the URRAH research project.

Serum uric acid and left ventricular mass index independently predict cardiovascular mortality: The uric acid right for heart health (URRAH) project

A relationship between serum uric acid (SUA) and cardiovascular (CV) events has been documented in the Uric Acid Right for Heart Health (URRAH) study.

AIM

of this study was to investigate the association between SUA and left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and whether SUA and LVMI or their combination may predict the incidence of CV death.

METHODS

Subjects with echocardiographic measurement of LVMI included in the URRAH study (n=10733) were part of this analysis. LV hypertrophy (LVH) was defined as LVMI > 95 g/m2 in women and 115 g/m2 in men.

RESULTS

A significant association between SUA and LVMI was observed in multiple regression analysis in men: beta 0,095, F 5.47, P< 0.001 and women: beta 0,069, F 4.36, P<0.001. During follow-up 319 CV deaths occurred. Kaplan-Meier curves showed a significantly poorer survival rate in subjects with higher SUA (> 5.6 mg/dl in men and 5.1 mg/dl in women) and LVH (log-rank chi-square 298.105; P<0.0001). At multivariate Cox regression analysis in women LVH alone and the combination of higher SUA and LVH but not hyperuricemia alone, were associated with a higher risk of CV death, while in men hyperuricemia without LVH, LVH without hyperuricemia and their combination were all associated with a higher incidence of CV death.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that SUA is independently associated with LVMI and suggest that the combination of hyperuricemia with LVH is an independent and powerful predictor for CV death both in men and women.

Blood pressure and cardiovascular risk in relation to birth weight and urinary sodium: an individual-participant meta-analysis of European family-based population studies

BACKGROUND

Although the relation of salt intake with blood pressure (BP) is linear, it is U-shaped for mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This individual-participant meta-analysis explored whether the relation of hypertension, death or CVD with 24-h urinary sodium excretion (UVNA) or sodium-to-potassium (UNAK) ratio was modified by birth weight.

METHODS

Families were randomly enrolled in the Flemish Study on Genes, Environment and Health Outcomes (1985-2004) and the European Project on Genes in Hypertension (1999-2001). Categories of birth weight, UVNA and UNAK (≤2500, >2500-4000, >4000 g; <2.3, 2.3-4.6 and >4.6 g; and <1, 1-2, >2, respectively) were coded using deviation-from-mean coding and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival functions and linear and Cox regression.

RESULTS

The study population was subdivided into the Outcome ( n  = 1945), Hypertension ( n  = 1460) and Blood Pressure cohorts ( n  = 1039) to analyze the incidence of mortality and cardiovascular endpoints, hypertension and BP changes as function of UVNA changes. The prevalence of low/medium/high birth weight in the Outcome cohort was 5.8/84.5/9.7%. Over 16.7 years (median), rates were 4.9, 8 and 27.1% for mortality, CVD and hypertension, respectively, but were not associated with birth weight. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were not significant for any endpoint in any of the birth weight, UVNA and UNAK strata. Adult body weight tracked with birth weight ( P  < 0.0001). The partial r in the low-birth-weight group associating changes from baseline to follow-up in UVNA and SBP was 0.68 ( P  = 0.023) but not significant in other birth weight groups.

CONCLUSION

This study did not substantiate its prior hypothesis but showed tracking of adult with birth weight and suggest that low birth weight increases salt sensitivity.

Serum Uric Acid Predicts All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality Independently of Hypertriglyceridemia in Cardiometabolic Patients without Established CV Disease: A Sub-Analysis of the URic acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) Study

High serum uric acid (SUA) and triglyceride (TG) levels might promote high-cardiovascular risk phenotypes across the cardiometabolic spectrum. However, SUA predictive power in the presence of normal and high TG levels has never been investigated. We included 8124 patients from the URic acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) study cohort who were followed for over 20 years and had no established cardiovascular disease or uncontrolled metabolic disease. All-cause mortality (ACM) and cardiovascular mortality (CVM) were explored by the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox multivariable regression, adopting recently defined SUA cut-offs for ACM (≥4.7 mg/dL) and CVM (≥5.6 mg/dL). Exploratory analysis across cardiometabolic subgroups and a sensitivity analysis using SUA/serum creatinine were performed as validation. SUA predicted ACM (HR 1.25 [1.12-1.40], p < 0.001) and CVM (1.31 [1.11-1.74], p < 0.001) in the whole study population, and according to TG strata: ACM in normotriglyceridemia (HR 1.26 [1.12-1.43], p < 0.001) and hypertriglyceridemia (1.31 [1.02-1.68], p = 0.033), and CVM in normotriglyceridemia (HR 1.46 [1.23-1.73], p < 0.001) and hypertriglyceridemia (HR 1.31 [0.99-1.64], p = 0.060). Exploratory and sensitivity analyses confirmed our findings, suggesting a substantial role of SUA in normotriglyceridemia and hypertriglyceridemia. In conclusion, we report that SUA can predict ACM and CVM in cardiometabolic patients without established cardiovascular disease, independent of TG levels.

Hyperuricemia increases the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with very high HdL-cholesterol level

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Whether the association between very high HDL-cholesterol levels and cardiovascular mortality (CVM) is modulated by some facilitating factors is unclear. Aim of the study was to investigate whether the risk of CVM associated with very high HDL-cholesterol is increased in subjects with hyperuricemia.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Multivariable Cox analyses were made in 18,072 participants from the multicentre URRAH study stratified by sex and HDL-cholesterol category. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years there were 1307 cases of CVM. In multivariable Cox models a J-shaped association was found in the whole population, with the highest risk being present in the high HDL-cholesterol group [>80 mg/dL, adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.28; 95%CI, 1.02-1.61; p = 0.031)]. However, a sex-specific analysis revealed that this association was present only in women (HR, 1.34; 95%CI, 1.02-1.77; p = 0.034) but not in men. The risk of CVM related to high HDL-cholesterol was much greater in the women with high uric acid (>0.30 mmol/L, HR 1.61; 95%CI, 1.08-2.39) than in those with low uric acid (HR, 1.17; 95%CI, 0.80-1.72, p for interaction = 0.016). In women older than 70 years with hyperuricemia the risk related to high HDL-cholesterol was 1.83 (95%CI, 1.19-2.80, p < 0.005). Inclusion of BMI in the models weakened the strength of the associations.

CONCLUSION

Our data indicate that very high HDL-cholesterol levels in women are associated with CVM in a J-shaped fashion. The risk of CVM is increased by concomitant hyperuricemia suggesting that a proinflammatory/oxidative state can enhance the detrimental cardiovascular effects associated with high HDL-cholesterol.

Serum uric acid / serum creatinine ratio as a predictor of cardiovascular events. Detection of prognostic cardiovascular cut-off values

OBJECTIVE

In the frame of the Uric Acid Right for Heart Health (URRAH) study, a nationwide multicenter study involving adult participants recruited on a regional community basis from all the territory of Italy under the patronage of the Working Group on Uric Acid and Cardiovascular Risk of the Italian Society of Hypertension, we searched for the cut-off values of the ratio between serum uric acid (SUA) and serum creatinine (sCr) able to predict cardiovascular (CV) events.

METHODS

Among 20 724 participants followed-up for 126 ± 64 months, after detecting cut-off by the receiver operating characteristic curves, we calculated by Cox models adjusted for confounders having CV events as dependent variable the hazard ratio (HR) of SUA/sCr > cut-off. We also verified if the role of cut-off varied with increasing SUA/sCr.

RESULTS

A plausible prognostic cut-off of SUA/sCr was found and was the same in the whole database, in men and in women (>5.35). The HR of SUA/sCr > cut-off was 1.159 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.092-1.131, P < 0.03) in all, 1.161 (95% CI 1.021-1.335, P < 0.02) in men, and 1.444 (95% CI 1.012-1.113, P < 0.03) in women. In increasing quintiles of SUA/sCr the cut-offs were >3.08, >4.87, >5.35, >6.22 and >7.58, respectively. The HRs significantly increased from the 3rd to the 5th quintile (1.21, 95% CI 1.032-1.467, P = 0.018; 1.294, 95% CI 1.101-1.521, P = 0.002; and 1.642, 95% CI 1.405-1.919, P < 0.0001; respectively), that is, over 5.35, whereas the 2nd quintile was not significantly different from the 1st (reference).

CONCLUSION

Having SUA/sCr >5.35 is an independent CV risk indicator both in men and women. The cut-off is dynamic and significantly increases with increasing SUA/sCr.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND

End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

METHODS

Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank.

RESULTS

There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD.

CONCLUSIONS

In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Predictive power of 24-h ambulatory pulse pressure and its components for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in 11 848 participants recruited from 13 populations

BACKGROUND

The role of pulse pressure (PP) 'widening' at older and younger age as a cardiovascular risk factor is still controversial. Mean PP, as determined from repeated blood pressure (BP) readings, can be expressed as a sum of two components: 'elastic PP' (elPP) and 'stiffening PP' (stPP) associated, respectively, with stiffness at the diastole and its relative change during the systole. We investigated the association of 24-h ambulatory PP, elPP, and stPP ('PP variables') with mortality and composite cardiovascular events in different age classes.

METHOD

Longitudinal population-based cohort study of adults with baseline observations that included 24-h ambulatory BP. Age classes were age 40 or less, 40-50, 50-60, 60-70, and over 70 years. Co-primary endpoints were total mortality and composite cardiovascular events. The relative risk expressed by hazard ratio per 1SD increase for each of the PP variables was calculated from multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The 11 848 participants from 13 cohorts (age 53 ± 16 years, 50% men) were followed for up for 13.7 ± 6.7 years. A total of 2946 participants died (18.1 per 1000 person-years) and 2093 experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event (12.9 per 1000 person-years). Mean PP, elPP, and stPP were, respectively, 49.7, 43.5, and 6.2 mmHg, and elPP and stPP were uncorrelated ( r  = -0.07). At age 50-60 years, all PP variables displayed association with risk for almost all outcomes. From age over 60 years to age over 70 years, hazard ratios of of PP and elPP were similar and decreased gradually but differently for pulse rate lower than or higher than 70 bpm, whereas stPP lacked predictive power in most cases. For age 40 years or less, elPP showed protective power for coronary events, whereas stPP and PP predicted stroke events. Adjusted and unadjusted hazard ratio variations were similar over the entire age range.

CONCLUSION

This study provides a new basis for associating PP components with outcome and arterial properties in different age groups and at different pulse rates for both old and young age. The similarity between adjusted and unadjusted hazard ratios supports the clinical usefulness of PP components but further studies are needed to assess the prognostic significance of the PP components, especially at the young age.

Prognostic cut-off values of caffeine and cardiovascular events in a cohort of unselected men and women from general population

Background

Several studies focused on the effect of caffeine on the cardiovascular (CV) system and on CV outcome, with fairly contrasting results. Dietary caffeine is usually taken into consideration as a continuous variable, but researcher would prefer to use cut-off values more useful in clinical setting.

Purpose

The present study is aimed at defining in epidemiological setting and in population-based context the cut-off values of caffeine, if any, having a CV prognostic values, to confirm them in men and women of general population, and to establish whether caffeine of food origin contained in multiple sources used in everyday life.

Methods

The study cohort was represented by 1,668 unselected men and women aged 59.6±17.1 years living in an area in North-East Italy and sharing homogeneous lifestyle, randomly taken from general population. Multivariate dichotomic Cox regression models having fatal and morbid CV event as dependent variables, adjusted for age, sex, basal heart rate, body mass index, LDLC, individualized FEV1, β-blocking therapy, ethanol intake, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking, smoking, blood pressure were preliminarily used to search for an association between caffeine as a continuous variable and incident CV event. Prognostic cut-off values, identified by means of receiver operating curves (ROC) and able to discriminate between subjects doomed to develop the CV event, were then used as independent predictors to divide people into those &lt;cut-off&gt;cut-off in further multivariate Cox models adjusted for the confounders listed above.

Results

Daily intake of caffeine over a specific cut-off determined via the ROC curve analysis are associated to lower incidence of CV events in a 20-year follow-up period. This cut-off corresponds, for each events, to an interval between two groups of quintiles of caffeine intake. The cerebrovascular events and those due to heart failure and arrhythmias were reduced also in multivariate models adjusted for confounders. On the contrary, intake of caffeine over the cut-off was only apparently associated to lower incidence of coronary disease, but this unadjusted crude association was wales and not confirmed after adjustment.

Conclusions

In men but not in women, higher voluntary daily consumption of caffeine from any source reduces significantly and to a considerable extent, in a long follow-up, the incidence of cerebrovascular events, heart failure and arrhythmias. To have preventive effects on events the consumption of caffeine must be higher than a cut-off that corresponds to 280, 230 and 280 mg/day respectively, cut-off values always falling between the third and fourth quintile of caffeine consumption. No prognostic cut-off can be identified in women and in any sex in the case of coronary events. Specific studies will be mandatory to understand the reason of this sex-specific difference.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Serum uric acid levels threshold for mortality in diabetic individuals: The URic acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) project

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The URRAH (URic acid Right for heArt Health) Study has identified cut-off values of serum uric acid (SUA) predictive of total mortality at 4.7 mg/dl, and cardiovascular (CV) mortality at 5.6 mg/dl. Our aim was to validate these SUA thresholds in people with diabetes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The URRAH subpopulation of people with diabetes was studied. All-cause and CV deaths were evaluated at the end of follow-up. A total of 2570 diabetic subjects were studied. During a median follow-up of 107 months, 744 deaths occurred. In the multivariate Cox regression analyses adjusted for several confounders, subjects with SUA ≥5.6 mg/dl had higher risk of total (HR: 1.23, 95%CI: 1.04-1.47) and CV mortality (HR:1.31, 95%CI:1.03-1.66), than those with SUA <5.6 mg/dl. Increased all-cause mortality risk was shown in participants with SUA ≥4.7 mg/dl vs SUA below 4.7 mg/dl, but not statistically significant after adjustment for all confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

SUA thresholds previously proposed by the URRAH study group are predictive of total and CV mortality also in people with diabetes. The threshold of 5.6 mg/dl can predict both total and CV mortality, and so is candidate to be a clinical cut-off for the definition of hyperuricemia in patients with diabetes.

The association of uric acid with mortality modifies at old age: data from the uric acid right for heart health (URRAH) study

OBJECTIVES

In older individuals, the role of serum uric acid (SUA) as risk factor for mortality is debated. This study investigated the association of SUA with all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in older adults participating in the large multicentre observational uric acid right for heart health (URRAH) study.

METHODS

Eight thousand URRAH participants aged 65+ were included in the analysis. The predictive role of SUA was assessed using Cox regression models stratified according to the cut-off age of 75. SUA was tested as continuous and categorical variable (age-specific quartiles). The prognostic threshold of SUA for mortality was analysed using receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Among participants aged 65-74, multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusted for CV risk factors and comorbidities identified an independent association of SUA with both all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.169, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.107-1.235) and CV mortality (HR 1.146, 95% CI 1.064-1.235). The cut-off value of 4.8 mg/dl discriminated mortality status. In participants aged 75+, we observed a J-shaped relationship of SUA with all-cause and CV mortality, with risk increasing at extreme SUA levels.

CONCLUSIONS

These results confirmed the predictive role of SUA for all-cause and CV mortality in older adults, while revealing considerable age-related differences. Mortality risk increased at higher SUA levels in participants aged 65-74, with a prognostic threshold of 4.8 mg/dl. The relationship between SUA and mortality was J-shaped in oldest participants. Large interventional studies are needed to clarify the benefits and possible risks of urate-lowering treatments in older adults.

Risk Stratification by Cross-Classification of Central and Brachial Systolic Blood Pressure

BACKGROUND

Whether cardiovascular risk is more tightly associated with central (cSBP) than brachial (bSBP) systolic pressure remains debated, because of their close correlation and uncertain thresholds to differentiate cSBP into normotension versus hypertension.

METHODS

In a person-level meta-analysis of the International Database of Central Arterial Properties for Risk Stratification (n=5576; 54.1% women; mean age 54.2 years), outcome-driven thresholds for cSBP were determined and whether the cross-classification of cSBP and bSBP improved risk stratification was explored. cSBP was tonometrically estimated from the radial pulse wave using SphygmoCor software.

RESULTS

Over 4.1 years (median), 255 composite cardiovascular end points occurred. In multivariable bootstrapped analyses, cSBP thresholds (in mm Hg) of 110.5 (95% CI, 109.1-111.8), 120.2 (119.4-121.0), 130.0 (129.6-130.3), and 149.5 (148.4-150.5) generated 5-year cardiovascular risks equivalent to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association bSBP thresholds of 120, 130, 140, and 160. Applying 120/130 mm Hg as cSBP/bSBP thresholds delineated concordant central and brachial normotension (43.1%) and hypertension (48.2%) versus isolated brachial hypertension (5.0%) and isolated central hypertension (3.7%). With concordant normotension as reference, the multivariable hazard ratios for the cardiovascular end point were 1.30 (95% CI, 0.58-2.94) for isolated brachial hypertension, 2.28 (1.21-4.30) for isolated central hypertension, and 2.02 (1.41-2.91) for concordant hypertension. The increased cardiovascular risk associated with isolated central and concordant hypertension was paralleled by cerebrovascular end points with hazard ratios of 3.71 (1.37-10.06) and 2.60 (1.35-5.00), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Irrespective of the brachial blood pressure status, central hypertension increased cardiovascular and cerebrovascular risk indicating the importance of controlling central hypertension.

The International Database of Central Arterial Properties for Risk Stratification: Research Objectives and Baseline Characteristics of Participants

OBJECTIVE

To address to what extent central hemodynamic measurements, improve risk stratification, and determine outcome-based diagnostic thresholds, we constructed the International Database of Central Arterial Properties for Risk Stratification (IDCARS), allowing a participant-level meta-analysis. The purpose of this article was to describe the characteristics of IDCARS participants and to highlight research perspectives.

METHODS

Longitudinal or cross-sectional cohort studies with central blood pressure measured with the SphygmoCor devices and software were included.

RESULTS

The database included 10,930 subjects (54.8% women; median age 46.0 years) from 13 studies in Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America. The prevalence of office hypertension was 4,446 (40.1%), of which 2,713 (61.0%) were treated, and of diabetes mellitus was 629 (5.8%). The peripheral and central systolic/diastolic blood pressure averaged 129.5/78.7 mm Hg and 118.2/79.7 mm Hg, respectively. Mean aortic pulse wave velocity was 7.3 m per seconds. Among 6,871 participants enrolled in 9 longitudinal studies, the median follow-up was 4.2 years (5th-95th percentile interval, 1.3-12.2 years). During 38,957 person-years of follow-up, 339 participants experienced a composite cardiovascular event and 212 died, 67 of cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

IDCARS will provide a unique opportunity to investigate hypotheses on central hemodynamic measurements that could not reliably be studied in individual studies. The results of these analyses might inform guidelines and be of help to clinicians involved in the management of patients with suspected or established hypertension.

Serum Uric Acid and Kidney Disease Measures Independently Predict Cardiovascular and Total Mortality: The Uric Acid Right for Heart Health (URRAH) Project

Background: Serum uric acid predicts the onset and progression of kidney disease, and the occurrence of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Nevertheless, it is unclear which is the appropriate definition of hyperuricemia in presence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Our goal was to study the independent impact of uric acid and CKD on mortality. Methods: We retrospectively investigated 21,963 patients from the URRAH study database. Hyperuricemia was defined on the basis of outcome specific cut-offs separately identified by ROC curves according to eGFR strata. The primary endpoints were cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Results: After a mean follow-up of 9.8 year, there were 1,582 (7.20%) cardiovascular events and 3,130 (14.25%) deaths for all causes. The incidence of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality increased in parallel with reduction of eGFR strata and with progressively higher uric acid quartiles. During 215,618 person-years of follow-up, the incidence rate for cardiovascular mortality, stratified based on eGFR (>90, between 60 and 90 and <60 ml/min) was significantly higher in patients with hyperuricemia and albuminuria (3.8, 22.1 and 19.1, respectively) as compared to those with only one risk factor or none (0.4, 2.8 and 3.1, respectively). Serum uric acid and eGFR significantly interact in determining cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. For each SUA increase of 1 mg/dl the risk for mortality increased by 10% even after adjustment for potential confounding factors included eGFR and the presence of albuminuria. Conclusions: hyperuricemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality additively to eGFR strata and albuminuria, in patients at cardiovascular risk.

Isolated Diastolic Hypertension in the IDACO Study: An Age-Stratified Analysis Using 24-Hour Ambulatory Blood Pressure Measurements

[Figure: see text].

Relative and Absolute Risk to Guide the Management of Pulse Pressure, an Age-Related Cardiovascular Risk Factor

BACKGROUND

Pulse pressure (PP) reflects the age-related stiffening of the central arteries, but no study addressed the management of the PP-related risk over the human lifespan.

METHODS

In 4,663 young (18-49 years) and 7,185 older adults (≥50 years), brachial PP was recorded over 24 hours. Total mortality and all major cardiovascular events (MACEs) combined were coprimary endpoints. Cardiovascular death, coronary events, and stroke were secondary endpoints.

RESULTS

In young adults (median follow-up, 14.1 years; mean PP, 45.1 mm Hg), greater PP was not associated with absolute risk; the endpoint rates were ≤2.01 per 1,000 person-years. The adjusted hazard ratios expressed per 10-mm Hg PP increments were less than unity (P ≤ 0.027) for MACE (0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.96) and cardiovascular death (0.33; 95% CI, 0.11-0.75). In older adults (median follow-up, 13.1 years; mean PP, 52.7 mm Hg), the endpoint rates, expressing absolute risk, ranged from 22.5 to 45.4 per 1,000 person-years and the adjusted hazard ratios, reflecting relative risk, from 1.09 to 1.54 (P < 0.0001). The PP-related relative risks of death, MACE, and stroke decreased >3-fold from age 55 to 75 years, whereas absolute risk rose by a factor 3.

CONCLUSIONS

From 50 years onwards, the PP-related relative risk decreases, whereas absolute risk increases. From a lifecourse perspective, young adulthood provides a window of opportunity to manage risk factors and prevent target organ damage as forerunner of premature death and MACE. In older adults, treatment should address absolute risk, thereby extending life in years and quality.

Association of uric acid with kidney function and albuminuria: the Uric Acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) Project

BACKGROUND

Hyperuricemia is commonly observed in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, a better understanding of the relationship among uric acid (UA) values, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the excess of cardiovascular mortality associated with both chronic kidney disease and hyperuricemia and lead to better risk stratification. Our main goal was to study the relationships between serum uric acid and kidney disease measures (namely estimated GFR [eGFR] and albuminuria) in a large cohort of individuals at cardiovascular risk from the URic acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) Project database.

METHODS

Clinical data of 26,971 individuals were analyzed. Factors associated with the presence of hyperuricemia defined on the basis of previously determined URRAH cutoffs for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were evaluated through multivariate analysis. Chronic kidney disease was defined as eGFR < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m² and/or abnormal urinary albumin excretion diagnosed as: (i) microalbuminuria if urinary albumin concentration was > 30 and ≤ 300 mg/L, or if urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) was > 3.4 mg/mmol and ≤ 34 mg/mmol; (ii) macroalbuminuria if urinary albumin concentration was > 300 mg/L, or if ACR was > 34 mg/mmol.

RESULTS

Mean age was 58 ± 15 years (51% males, 62% with hypertension and 12% with diabetes), mean eGFR was 81 ml/min per 1.73m2²with a prevalence of eGFR < 60 and micro- or macroalbuminuria of 16, 15 and 4%, respectively. Serum uric acid showed a trend towards higher values along with decreasing renal function. Both the prevalence of gout and the frequency of allopurinol use increased significantly with the reduction of eGFR and the increase in albuminuria. Hyperuricemia was independently related to male gender, eGFR strata, and signs of insulin resistance such as body mass index (BMI) and triglycerides.

CONCLUSIONS

The lower the eGFR the higher the prevalence of hyperuricemia and gout. In subjects with eGFR < 60 ml/min the occurrence of hyperuricemia is about 10 times higher than in those with eGFR > 90 ml/min. The percentage of individuals treated with allopurinol was below 2% when GFR was above 60 ml/min, it increased to 20% in the presence of CKD 3b and rose further to 35% in individuals with macroalbuminuria.

The importance of including uric acid in the definition of metabolic syndrome when assessing the mortality risk

Introduction

Serum uric acid (SUA) has been depicted as a contributory causal factor in metabolic syndrome (MS), which in turn, portends unfavourable prognosis.

Aim

We assessed the prognostic role of SUA in patients with and without MS.

Methods

We used data from the multicentre Uric Acid Right for Heart Health study and considered cardiovascular mortality (CVM) as death due to fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, sudden cardiac death, or heart failure.

Results

A total of 9589 subjects (median age 58.5 years, 45% males) were included in the analysis, and 5100 (53%) patients had a final diagnosis of MS. After a median follow-up of 142 months, we observed 558 events. Using a previously validated cardiovascular SUA cut-off to predict CVM (> 5.1 mg/dL in women and 5.6 mg/dL in men), elevated SUA levels were significantly associated to a worse outcome in patients with and without MS (all p < 0.0001) and provided a significant net reclassification improvement of 7.1% over the diagnosis of MS for CVM (p = 0.004). Cox regression analyses identified an independent association between SUA and CVM (Hazard Ratio: 1.79 [95% CI, 1.15–2.79]; p < 0.0001) after the adjustment for MS, its single components and renal function. Three specific combinations of the MS components were associated with higher CVM when increasing SUA levels were reported, and systemic hypertension was the only individual component ever-present (all p < 0.0001).

Conclusion

Increasing SUA levels are associated with a higher CVM risk irrespective of the presence of MS: a cardiovascular SUA threshold may improve risk stratification.

Graphic abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00392-021-01815-0.

High heart rate amplifies the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with elevated uric acid

AIMS

Whether the association between uric acid (UA) and cardiovascular disease is influenced by some facilitating factors is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the risk of cardiovascular mortality (CVM) associated with elevated UA was modulated by the level of resting heart rate (HR).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Multivariable Cox analyses were made in 19 128 participants from the multicentre Uric acid Right for heArt Health study. During a median follow-up of 11.2 years, there were 1381 cases of CVM. In multivariable Cox models both UA and HR, either considered as continuous or categorical variables were independent predictors of CVM both improving risk discrimination (P ≤ 0.003) and reclassification (P < 0.0001) over a multivariable model. However, the risk of CVM related to high UA (≥5.5 mg/dL, top tertile) was much lower in the subjects with HR

CONCLUSION

This data suggest that the contribution of UA to determining CVM is modulated by the level of HR supporting the hypothesis that activation of the sympathetic nervous system facilitates the action of UA as a cardiovascular risk factor.

Collapse

Key Words

• Cardiovascular
• Heart rate
• Longitudinal study
• Mortality
• Sympathetic activity
• Uric acid

Collapse

MESH Headings Collapse

Grants Collapse

Affiliation(s)

Paolo Palatini Department of Medicine, Studium Patavinum, University of Padova, Via S. Fris 121, 31029 Vittorio Veneto, Italy
Gianfranco Parati S. Luca Hospital, Istituto Auxologico Italiano & University of Milan-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
Agostino Virdis Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Gianpaolo Reboldi Department of Medical and Surgical Science, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
Stefano Masi Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Alessandro Mengozzi Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Edoardo Casiglia Department of Medicine, University of Padua, Padua, Italy
Valerie Tikhonoff Department of Medicine, University of Padua, Padua, Italy
Arrigo F G Cicero Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Andrea Ungar Department of Geriatric and Intensive Care Medicine, Careggi Hospital and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Giulia Rivasi Department of Geriatric and Intensive Care Medicine, Careggi Hospital and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Massimo Salvetti Department of Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
Carlo M Barbagallo Biomedical Department of Internal Medicine and Specialistics, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
Michele Bombelli Department of Cardiovascular, Neural and Metabolic Sciences, Clinica Medica, Monza, Italy Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milano-Bicocca, Monza, Italy
Raffaella Dell'Oro Department of Cardiovascular, Neural and Metabolic Sciences, Clinica Medica, Monza, Italy Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milano-Bicocca, Monza, Italy
Berardino Bruno Department of Life, Health and Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Luciano Lippa Italian Society of General, Medicine (SIMG), Avezzano, L'Aquila, Italy
Lanfranco D'Elia Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, "Federico II" University of Naples Medical School, Naples, Italy
Paolo Verdecchia Hospital S. Maria della Misericordia, Perugia, Italy
Fabio Angeli Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy Department of Medicine and Cardiopulmonary Rehabilitation, Maugeri Care and Research Institutes, IRCCS Tradate, Varese, Italy
Francesca Mallamaci CNR-IFC, Clinical Epidemiology of Renal Diseases and Hypertension, Reggio Cal Unit, Reggio Calabria, Italy
Massimo Cirillo Department of Public Health, "Federico II" University of Naples, Napoli, Italy
Marcello Rattazzi Department of Medicine-DIMED, University of Padova, Medicina, Interna 1°, Ca' Foncello University Hospital, Treviso, Italy
Pietro Cirillo Department of Emergency and Organ Transplantation-Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation Unit, Aldo Moro University of Bari, Bari, Italy
Loreto Gesualdo Department of Emergency and Organ Transplantation-Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation Unit, Aldo Moro University of Bari, Bari, Italy
Alberto Mazza Department of Internal Medicine, Hypertension Unit, General Hospital, Rovigo, Italy
Cristina Giannattasio Cardiology IV, 'A. De Gasperis' Department, Niguarda Ca' Granda Hospital, Milano, Italy Health Science Department, Milano-Bicocca University, Milano, Italy
Alessandro Maloberti Cardiology IV, 'A. De Gasperis' Department, Niguarda Ca' Granda Hospital, Milano, Italy Health Science Department, Milano-Bicocca University, Milano, Italy
Massimo Volpe Hypertension Unit, Division of Cardiology, Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Psychology, University of Rome Sapienza, Sant'Andrea Hospital, Rome, Italy IRCCS Neuromed, Pozzilli (IS), Italy
Giuliano Tocci Hypertension Unit, Division of Cardiology, Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Psychology, University of Rome Sapienza, Sant'Andrea Hospital, Rome, Italy IRCCS Neuromed, Pozzilli (IS), Italy
Georgios Georgiopoulos First Department of Cardiology, 'Hippokration' Hospital, University of Athens, Medical School, Athens, Greece
Guido Iaccarino Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, "Federico II" University of Naples, Napoli, Italy
Pietro Nazzaro Department of Medical Basic Sciences, Neurosciences and Sense Organs, University of Bari Medical School, Bari, Italy
Ferruccio Galletti Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, "Federico II" University of Naples Medical School, Naples, Italy
Claudio Ferri Department of Life, Health and Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Giovambattista Desideri Department of Life, Health and Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Francesca Viazzi Department of Internal Medicine, University of Genoa and Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy
Roberto Pontremoli Department of Internal Medicine, University of Genoa and Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy
Maria Lorenza Muiesan Department of Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
Guido Grassi Department of Cardiovascular, Neural and Metabolic Sciences, Clinica Medica, Monza, Italy Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milano-Bicocca, Monza, Italy
Claudio Borghi Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy

Collapse

Preserved critical ability and free will in deep hypnosis during oral surgery

Free will is a complex construct that includes critical reasoning, sense of ownership, and agency. The whole history of hypnosis has been linked to suggestibility. Little agreement has been reached, however, on exactly what we mean by suggestibility, and its role in hypnosis, despite the abundance of studies, hypotheses, and theories published to date. We report on a highly hypnotizable patient with a previous allergy to lidocaine and paradoxical reactions to pharmacological sedation, who underwent oral surgery with mepivacaine for local anesthesia, and hypnosis for sedation. During the procedure, she felt some pain and the hypnotist recommended bupivacaine to ensure lasting anesthesia. While remaining under deep hypnosis, the patient refused to change anesthetic and decided autonomously to continue with mepivacaine (for which she had previously been tested for allergy). Our case clearly shows a preserved, exemplary reasoning and ability to make autonomous decisions diverging from the hypnotist's advice while under deep hypnosis.

Association of Fatal and Nonfatal Cardiovascular Outcomes With 24-Hour Mean Arterial Pressure

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Major adverse cardiovascular events are closely associated with 24-hour blood pressure (BP). We determined outcome-driven thresholds for 24-hour mean arterial pressure (MAP), a BP index estimated by oscillometric devices. We assessed the association of major adverse cardiovascular events with 24-hour MAP, systolic BP (SBP), and diastolic BP (DBP) in a population-based cohort (n=11 596). Statistics included multivariable Cox regression and the generalized R² statistic to test model fit. Baseline office and 24-hour MAP averaged 97.4 and 90.4 mm Hg. Over 13.6 years (median), 2034 major adverse cardiovascular events occurred. Twenty-four-hour MAP levels of <90 (normotension, n=6183), 90 to <92 (elevated MAP, n=909), 92 to <96 (stage-1 hypertension, n=1544), and ≥96 (stage-2 hypertension, n=2960) mm Hg yielded equivalent 10-year major adverse cardiovascular events risks as office MAP categorized using 2017 American thresholds for office SBP and DBP. Compared with 24-hour MAP normotension, hazard ratios were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.80–1.16), 1.32 (1.15–1.51), and 1.77 (1.59–1.97), for elevated and stage-1 and stage-2 hypertensive MAP. On top of 24-hour MAP, higher 24-hour SBP increased, whereas higher 24-hour DBP attenuated risk (P<0.001). Considering the 24-hour measurements, R² statistics were similar for SBP (1.34) and MAP (1.28), lower for DBP than for MAP (0.47), and reduced to null, if the base model included SBP and DBP; if the ambulatory BP indexes were dichotomized according to the 2017 American guideline and the proposed 92 mm Hg for MAP, the R² values were 0.71, 0.89, 0.32, and 0.10, respectively. In conclusion, the clinical application of 24-hour MAP thresholds in conjunction with SBP and DBP refines risk estimates.

Cardiovascular End Points and Mortality Are Not Closer Associated With Central Than Peripheral Pulsatile Blood Pressure Components

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Pulsatile blood pressure (BP) confers cardiovascular risk. Whether associations of cardiovascular end points are tighter for central systolic BP (cSBP) than peripheral systolic BP (pSBP) or central pulse pressure (cPP) than peripheral pulse pressure (pPP) is uncertain. Among 5608 participants (54.1% women; mean age, 54.2 years) enrolled in nine studies, median follow-up was 4.1 years. cSBP and cPP, estimated tonometrically from the radial waveform, averaged 123.7 and 42.5 mm Hg, and pSBP and pPP 134.1 and 53.9 mm Hg. The primary composite cardiovascular end point occurred in 255 participants (4.5%). Across fourths of the cPP distribution, rates increased exponentially (4.1, 5.0, 7.3, and 22.0 per 1000 person-years) with comparable estimates for cSBP, pSBP, and pPP. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios, expressing the risk per 1-SD increment in BP, were 1.50 (95% CI, 1.33–1.70) for cSBP, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.19–1.54) for cPP, 1.49 (95% CI, 1.33–1.67) for pSBP, and 1.34 (95% CI, 1.19–1.51) for pPP (P<0.001). Further adjustment of cSBP and cPP, respectively, for pSBP and pPP, and vice versa, removed the significance of all hazard ratios. Adding cSBP, cPP, pSBP, pPP to a base model including covariables increased the model fit (P<0.001) with generalized R² increments ranging from 0.37% to 0.74% but adding a second BP to a model including already one did not. Analyses of the secondary end points, including total mortality (204 deaths), coronary end points (109) and strokes (89), and various sensitivity analyses produced consistent results. In conclusion, associations of the primary and secondary end points with SBP and pulse pressure were not stronger if BP was measured centrally compared with peripherally.

Hyperuricemia and Risk of Cardiovascular Outcomes: The Experience of the URRAH (Uric Acid Right for Heart Health) Project

The latest European Guidelines of Arterial Hypertension have officially introduced uric acid evaluation among the cardiovascular risk factors that should be evaluated in order to stratify patient's risk. In fact, it has been extensively evaluated and demonstrated to be an independent predictor not only of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but also of myocardial infraction, stroke and heart failure. Despite the large number of studies on this topic, an important open question that still need to be answered is the identification of a cardiovascular uric acid cut-off value. The actual hyperuricemia cut-off (> 6 mg/dL in women and 7 mg/dL in men) is principally based on the saturation point of uric acid but previous evidence suggests that the negative impact of cardiovascular system could occur also at lower levels. In this context, the Working Group on uric acid and CV risk of the Italian Society of Hypertension has designed the Uric acid Right for heArt Health project. The primary objective of this project is to define the level of uricemia above which the independent risk of CV disease may increase in a significantly manner. In this review we will summarize the first results obtained and describe the further planned analysis.

MECHANISMS OF HYPNOTIC ANALGESIA EXPLAINED BY FUNCTIONAL MAGNETIC RESONANCE (fMRI)

Hypnotic-focused analgesia (HFA) was produced in 20 highly hypnotizable subjects receiving nociceptive stimulations while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The fMRI pattern in brain cortex activation while receiving a painful stimulus was recorded both during nonhypnosis and during HFA. The scanning protocol included the acquisition of a T1-weighted structural scan, 4 functional scans, a T2-weighted axial scan, and a fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) scan. Total imaging time, including localization and structural image acquisitions, was approximately 60 minutes. Without HFA, the subjects reported subjective presence of pain, and the cortex primary sensory areas S1, S2, and S3 were activated. During HFA, the subjects reported complete absence of subjective pain and S1, S2, and S3 were deactivated. The findings suggest that HFA may prevent painful stimuli from reaching the sensory brain cortex, possibly through a gate-control mechanism.

Identification of the Uric Acid Thresholds Predicting an Increased Total and Cardiovascular Mortality Over 20 Years

Serum uric acid (SUA) levels discriminating across the different strata of cardiovascular risk is still unknown. By utilizing a large population-based database, we assessed the threshold of SUA that increases the risk of total mortality and cardiovascular mortality (CVM). The URRAH study (Uric Acid Right for Heart Health) is a multicentre retrospective, observational study, which collected data from several large population-based longitudinal studies in Italy and subjects recruited in the hypertension clinics of the Italian Society of Hypertension. Total mortality was defined as mortality for any cause, CVM as death due to fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, sudden cardiac death, or heart failure. A total of 22 714 subjects were included in the analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analyses identified an independent association between SUA and total mortality (hazard ratio, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.21-1.93]) or CVM (hazard ratio, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.146-2.97]; P<0.001). Cutoff values of SUA able to discriminate total mortality (4.7 mg/dL [95% CI, 4.3-5.1 mg/dL]) and CVM status (5.6 mg/dL [95% CI, 4.99-6.21 mg/dL]) were identified. The information on SUA levels provided a significant net reclassification improvement of 0.26 and of 0.27 over the Heart Score risk chart for total mortality and CVM, respectively (P<0.001). Sex-specific cutoff values for total mortality and CVM were also identified and validated. In conclusion, SUA levels increasing the risk of total mortality and CVM are significantly lower than those used for the definition of hyperuricemia in clinical practice. Our data provide evidence of a cardiovascular SUA threshold that might contribute in clinical practice to improve identification of patients at higher risk of CVM.

Opposing Age-Related Trends in Absolute and Relative Risk of Adverse Health Outcomes Associated With Out-of-Office Blood Pressure

Participant-level meta-analyses assessed the age-specific relevance of office blood pressure to cardiovascular complications, but this information is lacking for out-of-office blood pressure. At baseline, daytime ambulatory (n=12 624) or home (n=5297) blood pressure were measured in 17 921 participants (51.3% women; mean age, 54.2 years) from 17 population cohorts. Subsequently, mortality and cardiovascular events were recorded. Using multivariable Cox regression, floating absolute risk was computed across 4 age bands (≤60, 61-70, 71-80, and >80 years). Over 236 491 person-years, 3855 people died and 2942 cardiovascular events occurred. From levels as low as 110/65 mm Hg, risk log-linearly increased with higher out-of-office systolic/diastolic blood pressure. From the youngest to the oldest age group, rates expressed per 1000 person-years increased (P<0.001) from 4.4 (95% CI, 4.0-4.7) to 86.3 (76.1-96.5) for all-cause mortality and from 4.1 (3.9-4.6) to 59.8 (51.0-68.7) for cardiovascular events, whereas hazard ratios per 20-mm Hg increment in systolic out-of-office blood pressure decreased (P≤0.0033) from 1.42 (1.19-1.69) to 1.09 (1.05-1.12) and from 1.70 (1.51-1.92) to 1.12 (1.07-1.17), respectively. These age-related trends were similar for out-of-office diastolic pressure and were generally consistent in both sexes and across ethnicities. In conclusion, adverse outcomes were directly associated with out-of-office blood pressure in adults. At young age, the absolute risk associated with out-of-office blood pressure was low, but relative risk high, whereas with advancing age relative risk decreased and absolute risk increased. These observations highlight the need of a lifecourse approach for the management of hypertension.

P1566Identification of the cardiovascular threshold limit for serum uric acid. Analysis from a general Italian population

Background

Serum uric acid (SUA) is increasingly recognised as an important predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and total mortality. However, the levels of SUA that discriminate across the different strata of risk for CVD and total mortality remain unknown, complicating the identification of subjects at high or low mortality risk for SUA in clinical practice.

Purpose

In this study we used a large Italian population comprising >3ehz748.0326 subjects to assess the threshold of SUA that increases the risk of total and CVD mortality.

Methods

The URic Acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) study is a regional-basis multicentre cohort study which collected data from prospective studies and databases from different hypertension centres, including subjects with at least one measure of SUA and a follow-up of about 20 years. Total mortality was defined as mortality for any causes, cardiovascular mortality as death due to fatal myocardial infraction, stroke or heart failure. Multivariate dichotomic logistic and Cox regression models were used to confirm the relationship between SUA and mortality status both from cardiovascular and any causes, while ROC curves were used to identify the threshold of SUA that better discriminated people at higher or lower mortality risk.

Results

A total of 22.275 subjects had SUA and mortality information. Logistic regression identified a direct and strong association between SUA and an increased risk of total (OR 1.176, 95% CI 1.127–1.227) and CVD (OR 1.147, 95% CI 1.093–1.203) mortality, independently of other CVD risk factors (age, BMI, LDL cholesterol, diagnosis of diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, alcohol consumption and smoking). Cox models confirmed the presence of an independent association between SUA and any causes (HR 1.123, 95% CI 1.090–1.567) and CVD (HR 1.124, 95% CI 1.081–1.169) mortality. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off value od SUA [(4.79 mg/dL (95% CI 4.7–5.4 mg/dl)] able to discriminate total mortality status, and a different one [(5.60 mg/dL (95% CI 5.09–5.89 mg/dl)] able to identify CVD mortality status. Multivariate Cox analysis adjusted for confounders confirmed that subjects with SUA >4.79 mg/dl had a significantly higher total mortality (HR 1.293, 95% CI 1.181–1.416) compared to those with SUA <4.79 mg/dl, independently of covariables. Similarly, subjects with SUA >5.60 mg/dl had a significantly higher CVD mortality (HR 1.428, 95% CI 1.273–1.600) than those with SUA <5.60 mg/dl after adjustment for the same confounders.

Conclusion

Levels of SUA that increase the risk of total and CVD mortality are significantly lower than those commonly used for the definition of hyperuricemia in clinical practice. Our data provide the first large evidence of a level of “cardiovascular” SUA that might be used in clinical practice to identify subjects at greater risk of total and CVD mortality.

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND

To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.

METHODS

In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.

FINDINGS

Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt.

INTERPRETATION

We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide.

FUNDING

World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.

Association of Office and Ambulatory Blood Pressure With Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes

IMPORTANCE

Blood pressure (BP) is a known risk factor for overall mortality and cardiovascular (CV)-specific fatal and nonfatal outcomes. It is uncertain which BP index is most strongly associated with these outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of BP indexes with death and a composite CV event.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Longitudinal population-based cohort study of 11 135 adults from Europe, Asia, and South America with baseline observations collected from May 1988 to May 2010 (last follow-ups, August 2006-October 2016).

EXPOSURES

Blood pressure measured by an observer or an automated office machine; measured for 24 hours, during the day or the night; and the dipping ratio (nighttime divided by daytime readings).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) expressed the risk of death or a CV event associated with BP increments of 20/10 mm Hg. Cardiovascular events included CV mortality combined with nonfatal coronary events, heart failure, and stroke. Improvement in model performance was assessed by the change in the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Among 11 135 participants (median age, 54.7 years, 49.3% women), 2836 participants died (18.5 per 1000 person-years) and 2049 (13.4 per 1000 person-years) experienced a CV event over a median of 13.8 years of follow-up. Both end points were significantly associated with all single systolic BP indexes (P < .001). For nighttime systolic BP level, the HR for total mortality was 1.23 (95% CI, 1.17-1.28) and for CV events, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.30-1.43). For the 24-hour systolic BP level, the HR for total mortality was 1.22 (95% CI, 1.16-1.28) and for CV events, 1.45 (95% CI, 1.37-1.54). With adjustment for any of the other systolic BP indexes, the associations of nighttime and 24-hour systolic BP with the primary outcomes remained statistically significant (HRs ranging from 1.17 [95% CI, 1.10-1.25] to 1.87 [95% CI, 1.62-2.16]). Base models that included single systolic BP indexes yielded an AUC of 0.83 for mortality and 0.84 for the CV outcomes. Adding 24-hour or nighttime systolic BP to base models that included other BP indexes resulted in incremental improvements in the AUC of 0.0013 to 0.0027 for mortality and 0.0031 to 0.0075 for the composite CV outcome. Adding any systolic BP index to models already including nighttime or 24-hour systolic BP did not significantly improve model performance. These findings were consistent for diastolic BP.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this population-based cohort study, higher 24-hour and nighttime blood pressure measurements were significantly associated with greater risks of death and a composite CV outcome, even after adjusting for other office-based or ambulatory blood pressure measurements. Thus, 24-hour and nighttime blood pressure may be considered optimal measurements for estimating CV risk, although statistically, model improvement compared with other blood pressure indexes was small.

Outcome-Driven Thresholds for Ambulatory Blood Pressure Based on the New American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Classification of Hypertension

The new American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline reclassified office blood pressure and proposed thresholds for ambulatory blood pressure (ABP). We derived outcome-driven ABP thresholds corresponding with the new office blood pressure categories. We performed 24-hour ABP monitoring in 11 152 participants (48.9% women; mean age, 53.0 years) representative of 13 populations. We determined ABP thresholds resulting in multivariable-adjusted 10-year risks similar to those associated with elevated office blood pressure (120/80 mm Hg) and stages 1 and 2 of office hypertension (130/80 and 140/90 mm Hg). Over 13.9 years (median), 2728 (rate per 1000 person-years, 17.9) people died, 1033 (6.8) from cardiovascular disease; furthermore, 1988 (13.8), 893 (6.0), and 795 (5.4) cardiovascular and coronary events and strokes occurred. Using a composite cardiovascular end point, systolic/diastolic outcome-driven thresholds indicating elevated 24-hour, daytime, and nighttime ABP were 117.9/75.2, 121.4/79.6, and 105.3/66.2 mm Hg. For stages 1 and 2 ambulatory hypertension, thresholds were 123.3/75.2 and 128.7/80.7 mm Hg for 24-hour ABP, 128.5/79.6 and 135.6/87.1 mm Hg for daytime ABP, and 111.7/66.2 and 118.1/72.5 mm Hg for nighttime ABP. ABP thresholds derived from other end points were similar. After rounding, approximate thresholds for elevated 24-hour, daytime, and nighttime ABP were 120/75, 120/80, and 105/65 mm Hg, and for stages 1 and 2, ambulatory hypertension 125/75 and 130/80 mm Hg, 130/80 and 135/85 mm Hg, and 110/65 and 120/70 mm Hg. Outcome-driven ABP thresholds corresponding to elevated blood pressure and stages 1 and 2 of hypertension are similar to those proposed by the current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline.

Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies

AIMS

There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.

CONCLUSION

Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism

Importance

It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE).

Objective

To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731 728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421 537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018.

Exposures

A panel of several established cardiovascular risk factors.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CHD], 25 131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI).

Results

Of the 731 728 participants from the ERFC, 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421 537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers.

Conclusions and Relevance

Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.

THE NEUROPHENOMENOLOGY OF OUT-OF-BODY EXPERIENCES INDUCED BY HYPNOTIC SUGGESTIONS

Inducing out-of-body experiences in hypnosis (H-OBEs) offers an almost unique opportunity to investigate them under controlled conditions. OBEs were induced as an imaginative task in a resting condition (I-OBE) or in hypnosis (H-OBE) in a group of 15 high hypnotizable subjects. A 32-channel EEG was recorded, and the spectral power and imaginary coherence of each frequency band and each couple of electrodes were calculated. At the end of each session, the Phenomenology of Consciousness Inventory (PCI) was administered to assess the phenomenological aspects of the subjects' experience. Significantly higher scores in the altered state, positive affect altered experience, and attention subdimensions of the PCI were reported in H-OBE than in I-OBE, which were associated with a significant decrease of power in beta and gamma band activity in right parieto-temporal derivations. These results suggest that the H-OBE may offer a useful experimental model of spontaneous OBEs.

Evidence-based proposal for the number of ambulatory readings required for assessing blood pressure level in research settings: an analysis of the IDACO database

BACKGROUND

Guidelines on the required number of ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) readings focus on individual patients. Clinical researchers often face the dilemma of applying recommendations and discarding potentially valuable information or accepting fewer readings.

METHODS

Starting from ABP recordings with ≥30/≥10 awake/asleep readings in 4277 participants enrolled in eight population studies in the International Database on Ambulatory Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes (IDACO), we randomly selected a certain number of readings (from 30 to 1 awake and 10 to 1 asleep readings) at a time over 1000 bootstraps at each step. We evaluated: (i) concordance of the ABP level; (ii) consistency of the cross-classification based on office blood pressure and ABP; and (iii) accuracy in predicting cardiovascular complications. For each criterion, we fitted a regression line joining data points relating outcome to the number of readings covering the ranges of 30-20/10-7 for awake/asleep readings.

RESULTS

Reducing readings widened the SD of the systolic/diastolic differences between full (reference) and selected recordings from 1.7/1.2 (30 readings) to 14.3/10.3 mm Hg (single reading) during wakefulness, and from 1.9/1.4 to 10.3/7.7 mm Hg during sleep; lowered the κ statistic from 0.94 to 0.63, and decreased the hazard ratio associated with 10/5 mm Hg increments in systolic/diastolic ABP from 1.21/1.14 to 1.06/1.04 during wakefulness and from 1.26/1.17 to 1.14/1.08 during sleep. The first data points falling off these regression lines during wakefulness/sleep corresponded to 8/3 and 8/4 readings for criteria (i) and (iii) and to 5 awake readings for criterion (ii).

CONCLUSIONS

24-h ambulatory recordings with ≥8/≥4 awake/asleep readings yielded ABP levels similar to recordings including the guideline-recommended ≥20/≥7 readings. These criteria save valuable data in a research setting, but are not applicable to clinical practice.

Caffeine intake reduces incident atrial fibrillation at a population level

Background

The general belief is that caffeine increases the risk of hyperkinetic arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of chronic caffeine intake on incident atrial fibrillation in general population.

Design and methods

A population cohort of 1475 unselected men and women observed for 12 years and left free to intake food or beverages containing caffeine was studied. Subjects were stratified into tertiles of caffeine intake both in the whole cohort and after genotyping for the –163C > A polymorphism of the CYP1A2 gene, regulating caffeine metabolism.

Results

In the whole cohort, the 12-year incidence of atrial fibrillation was significantly lower in the third (2.2%) than in the first (10.2%) or second (5.7%) tertile of caffeine intake ( P < 0.001). The same trend was observed in all genotypes; the apparently steeper reduction of atrial fibrillation in slow caffeine metabolisers found at univariate analysis was proved wrong by multivariate Cox analysis. Age, chronic pulmonary disease, history of heart failure and of coronary artery disease, and systolic blood pressure − but not the genotype or the caffeine ×  CYP1A2 interaction term − were significant confounders of the association between incident atrial fibrillation and being in the third tertile of caffeine intake (hazard ratio 0.249, 95% confidence intervals 0.161–0.458, P < 0.01).

Conclusions

A higher caffeine intake (>165 mmol/day or > 320 mg/day) is associated with a lower incidence of atrial fibrillation in the 12-year epidemiological prospective setting based on the general population.

Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies

BACKGROUND

Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th-95th percentile 1·04-13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.

FINDINGS

In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10-1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00-1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03-1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15-1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03-1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91-0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-≤200 g per week, >200-≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council.

Exploration into Uric and Cardiovascular Disease: Uric Acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) Project, A Study Protocol for a Retrospective Observational Study

The relevance of cardiovascular role played by levels of serum uric acid is dramatically growing, especially as cardiovascular risk factor potentially able to exert either a direct deleterious impact or a synergic effect with other cardiovascular risk factors. At the present time, it still remains undefined the threshold level of serum uric acid able to contribute to the cardiovascular risk. Indeed, the available epidemiological case studies are not homogeneous, and some preliminary data suggest that the so-called "cardiovascular threshold limit" may substantially differ from that identified as a cut-off able to trigger the acute gout attack. In such scenario, there is the necessity to clarify and quantify this threshold value, to insert it in the stratification of risk algorithm scores and, in turn, to adopt proper prevention and correction strategies. The clarification of the relationship between circulating levels of uric acid and cardio-nephro-metabolic disorders in a broad sample representative of general population is critical to identify the threshold value of serum uric acid better discriminating the increased risk associated with uric acid. The Uric acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) project has been designed to define, as primary objective, the level of uricemia above which the independent risk of cardiovascular disease may increase in a significantly manner in a general Italian population.

Ambulatory blood pressure and long-term risk for atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

Data on the contribution of ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) components to the risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) are limited. We prospectively tested the hypothesis that ABP may represent a potentially modifiable risk factor for the development of AF in a European population study.

METHODS

We recorded daytime blood pressure (BP) in 3956 subjects randomly recruited from the general population in five European countries. Of these participants, 2776 (70.2%) underwent complete 24-hour ABP monitoring. Median follow-up was 14 years. We defined daytime systolic BP load as the percentage BP readings above 135 mm Hg. The incidence of AF was assessed from ECGs obtained at baseline and follow-up and from records held by general practitioners and/or hospitals.

RESULTS

Overall, during 58 810 person-years of follow-up, 143 participants experienced new-onset AF. In adjusted Cox models, each SD increase in baseline 24 hours, daytime and night-time systolic BP was associated with a 27% (P=0.0056), 22% (P=0.023) and 20% (P=0.029) increase in the risk for incident AF, respectively. Conventional systolic BP was borderline associated with the risk of AF (18%; P=0.06). As compared with the average population risk, participants in the lower quartile of daytime systolic BP load (<3%) had a 51% (P=0.0038) lower hazard for incident AF, whereas in the upper quartile (>38%), the risk was 46% higher (P=0.0094).

CONCLUSIONS

Systolic ABP is a significant predictor of incident AF in a population-based cohort. We also observed that participants with a daytime systolic BP load >38% had significantly increased risk of incident AF.