Newly Developed Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological Classification: First Predictive Validity Evaluation

The CHD severity classification system: development of a tool to assist with disease stratification for CHD research

BACKGROUND

Complexity stratification for CHD is an integral part of clinical research due to its heterogenous clinical presentation and outcomes. To support our ongoing research efforts into CHD requiring disease severity stratifications, a simplified CHD severity classification system was developed and verified, with potential utility for clinical researchers without specialist CHD knowledge or access to clinical/medical records.

METHOD

A two-tiered analysis approach was undertaken. First-tier analysis included the audit of a comprehensive system based on: i) timing of intervention, ii) cardiac morphology, and iii) cardiovascular physiology using real patient data (n = 30), across 10 common CHD lesions. Second-tier analysis allowed for a simplified version of the classification system using morphology as a stand-alone predictor. Twelve clinicians of varying specialities involved in CHD care ranked 10 common lesions from least to most severe based on typical presentation and clinical course.

RESULTS

First-tier analysis identified that cardiac morphology was the principal driver of complexity. Second-tier analysis largely confirmed the ranking and classification of the lesions into the broad CHD severity groups, although some variation was noted, specifically among non-cardiac specialists. This simplified version of the classicisation system, with morphology as a stand-alone predictor of severity, allowed for effective stratification for the purposes of analysis.

CONCLUSION

The findings presented here support this comprehensive and simple CHD severity classification system with broad utility in CHD research, particularly among clinicians and researchers with limited knowledge of CHD. The model may be applied to produce locally relevant research tools.

Prognostic value of cardiopulmonary exercise test in children with congenital heart defects

BACKGROUND

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) has an important prognostic value in adults with different congenital heart defects (CHDs) and is a useful tool for risk stratification and clinical decision-making. In this retrospective study, we studied the prognostic value of CPET in paediatric patients with CHD.

METHODS

411 CPET performed by paediatric patients with different CHDs were evaluated in this retrospective study. Medical records were reviewed to determine the presence of cardiac events. Participants were classified using the 2018 AHA/ACC guideline for the management of adults with CHD that combines anatomical complexity and current physiological stage.

RESULTS

411 patients with a median age at test of 12 years, 51 patients with simple CHD, 170 patients with moderate complexity CHD and 190 with high complexity CHD underwent CPET. Overall, CPET parameters were lower than the reference values (%predicted VO2peak=75% and %predicted oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES)=79%), showing worst exercise capacity in the most complex types of CHD (Group III: %predicted VO2peak=72% and %predicted OUES=75%). Seventy-one patients presented with cardiac events at a median time from CPET to first event of 28 months. Patients with cardiac events had lower exercise performance as compared with patients without cardiac events as determined by the submaximal variables (%predicted OUES: HR=2.6 (1.5-4.4), p<0.001 and VE/VCO2: HR=2.2 (1.4-3.5), p=0.001).

CONCLUSION

Reduced exercise capacity at young age is related to a higher probability of future cardiovascular events in paediatric patients with CHD. Submaximal exercise variables can be used instead when maximal exercise cannot be achieved.

Recommendations for cardiovascular magnetic resonance and computed tomography in congenital heart disease: a consensus paper from the CMR/CCT Working Group of the Italian Society of Pediatric Cardiology and the Italian College of Cardiac Radiology endorsed by the Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology (Part II)

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and computed tomography (CCT) are advanced imaging modalities that recently revolutionized the conventional diagnostic approach to congenital heart diseases (CHD), supporting echocardiography and often replacing cardiac catheterization. This is the second of two complementary documents, endorsed by experts from the Working Group of the Italian Society of Pediatric Cardiology and the Italian College of Cardiac Radiology of the Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology, aimed at giving updated indications on the appropriate use of CMR and CCT in different clinical CHD settings, in both pediatrics and adults. In this article, support is also given to radiologists, pediatricians, cardiologists, and cardiac surgeons for indications and appropriateness criteria for CMR and CCT in the most referred CHD, following the proposed new criteria presented and discussed in the first document. This second document also examines the impact of devices and prostheses for CMR and CCT in CHD and additionally presents some indications for CMR and CCT exams when sedation or narcosis is needed.

Temporal Changes in Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Adults With Congenital Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to assess differences in the clinical characteristics (defined by congenital heart disease [CHD] anatomic and physiologic classification scheme) of adults with CHD across different eras, and how these differences influence outcomes (heart failure hospitalization and all-cause mortality).

METHOD

Patients were divided into depending on year of baseline encounter: cohort #1 (1991-2000, n = 1,984 [27%]), cohort #2 (2001-2010, n = 2,448 [34%]), and cohort #3 (2011-2020, n = 2,847 [39%]). Patients were classified into 3 anatomic groups (simple, moderate, and complex CHD) and 4 physiologic stages (stage A-D).

RESULTS

There was a temporal increase in the proportion of patients in physiologic stage C (17% vs 21% vs 24%, P < .001), and stage D (7% vs 8% vs 10%, P = .09), with a corresponding decrease in physiologic stage A (39% vs 35% vs 28%, P < .001). No temporal change in anatomic groups. There was a temporal decrease in the incidence of all-cause mortality (12.7 vs 10.6 vs 9.5 per 1,000 patient-years, P < .001). However, there was a temporal increase in the incidence of heart failure hospitalization (6.8 vs 8.4 vs 11.2 per 1,000 patient-years, P < .001). CHD physiologic stage (but not anatomic groups) was associated with heart failure hospitalization and all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a need for better strategies to identify and treat heart failure, and to modify the risk factors associated with heart failure and all-cause mortality.

Predictors of arrhythmia during pregnancy in adults with congenital heart disease

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction of arrhythmia during pregnancy in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) patients is currently lacking, and the impact of preconception catheter ablation on future antepartum arrhythmia has not been studied.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center, retrospective cohort study of pregnancies in ACHD patients. Clinically significant arrhythmia events during pregnancy were described, predictors of arrhythmia were analyzed, and a risk score devised. The impact of preconception catheter ablation on antepartum arrhythmia was assessed.

RESULTS

The study included 172 pregnancies in 137 patients. Arrhythmia events occurred in 25 (15%) of pregnancies, with 64% of events occurring in the second trimester and sustained supraventricular tachycardia being the most common rhythm. Univariate predictors of arrhythmia were history of tachyarrhythmia (OR 20.33, 95% CI 6.95-59.47, p < 0.001, Fontan circulation (OR 11.90, 95% CI 2.60-53.70, p < 0.001), baseline physiologic class C/D (OR 3.72, 95% CI 1.54-9.01, p = 0.002) and history of multiple valve interventions (OR 3.10, 95% CI 1.20-8.20, p = 0.017). Three risk factors (excluding multiple valve interventions) were used to formulate a risk score, with a cutoff of ≥2 points predicting antepartum arrhythmia with sensitivity and specificity of 84%. While recurrence of the index arrhythmia was not observed following successful catheter ablation, preconception ablation did not impact odds of antepartum arrhythmia.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a novel risk stratification scheme for predicting antepartum arrhythmia in ACHD patients. The role of contemporary preconception catheter ablation in risk reduction needs further refinement with multicenter investigation.

Short-term Prognostic Value of Heart Failure Diagnosis in a Contemporary Cohort of Patients With Adult Congenital Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is the primary cause of premature death in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). This study aimed to describe the impact of a HF diagnosis on short-term prognosis and to investigate the added prognostic value of an HF diagnosis to the ACHD Anatomic and Physiologic classification (ACHD-AP).

METHODS

This study included 3995 patients followed in a tertiary care centre (last follow-up after January 1, 2010). Survival curves were plotted, and predictors of the primary end point (death, heart transplantation, or ventricular assist device [VAD]) were identified with the use of Cox proportional hazard models and compared with the use of Harrell's C-statistic.

RESULTS

Mean age at baseline was 35.7 ± 13.3 years. The prevalence of ACHD-HF was 6.4%. During a median follow-up of 3.1 years (IQR 2.1-3.6 years), 27.3% of ACHD-HF patients reached the primary end point, compared with 1.4% of ACHD patients without HF. Event-free survivals were 78.3%, 61.9%, and 57.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years in ACHD-HF patients, compared with 99.3%, 98.3%, and 98.0% in ACHD patients without HF (P < 0.001). An HF diagnosis (HR 6.9, 95% CI 4.3-11.2) and the physiologic classification (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9-3.7) were independently associated with the primary end point. The addition of HF to the ACHD-AP classification yielded a Harrell's C-index of 0.8631, providing a significant improvement over the ACHD-AP classification alone (P = 0.0003).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of mortality, transplantation, or VAD is increased in ACHD-HF patients. An HF diagnosis appears to be a valuable prognostic marker in addition to the ACHD-AP classification.

Neuropsychological features in children and adults with congenital heart disease: an exploratory data analysis

We aimed to recognize clinically meaningful patterns among patients with congenital heart disease to support clinical decision-making and better classification in practice. This research was a secondary analysis of data from the Congenital Heart Disease Genetic Network Study conducted from December 2010 to November 2014 in the United States. The analytic dataset included 6002 patients ≥1 year of age with non-syndromic congenital heart disease. For each patient, features included demographic, clinical, maternal and paternal characteristics. We clustered patients to identify subgroups that shared similarities in their clinical features. The performance of the clustering algorithm was evaluated with a random forest. Next, we used the apriori algorithm to generate clinical rules from patients' characteristics. The clustering algorithm identified two discernible groups of patients. The two classes of patients were different in maternal diabetes and in neuropsychological indicators [Accuracy (95% CI) = 97.1% (96.2, 97.8), area under the ROC curve = 96.8%]. Our rule extraction suggested the presence of clinical pictures with high lift values among patients with maternal diabetes or with seizure, depression, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety, developmental delay, learning disability and speech problem. Beyond the age of 1 year, maternal diabetes and neuropsychological characteristics identify two clusters of patients with congenital heart disease. These characteristics have the potential of being incorporated into the current systems for the classification of congenital heart disease.

Significantly increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease amongst adults with predominantly mild congenital heart disease

Adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) face increased risk of various comorbid diseases. Previous work on lung dysfunction in this population has mainly focused on restrictive lung disease, in patients with severe CHD phenotypes. We examined the association of mild CHD with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the UK Biobank (UKB). Electronic health records (EHR) were used to identify 3385 CHD cases and 479,765 healthy controls in UKB, before performing a case-control analysis over a 20-year study period for a total of > 9.5 M person-years of follow-up. Our analysis showed that UKB participants with CHD are at substantially greater risk of developing COPD than healthy controls (8.7% vs 3.1% prevalence, unadjusted OR 2.98, 95% CI 2.63, 3.36, P = 1.40e-53). Slightly increased rates of smoking were observed amongst CHD cases, however the association with COPD was shown to be robust to adjustment for smoking and other factors known to modulate COPD risk within a multivariable-adjusted Cox regression framework (fully adjusted HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.97, 2.48, P = 5.5e-41). Care for adults with CHD should aim to mitigate their increased risk of COPD, possibly via increased smoking cessation support.

Insights into Cardiovascular Defects and Cardiac Epigenome in the Context of COVID-19

Although few in number, studies on epigenome of the heart of COVID-19 patients show that epigenetic signatures such as DNA methylation are significantly altered, leading to changes in expression of several genes. It contributes to pathogenic cardiac phenotypes of COVID-19, e.g., low heart rate, myocardial edema, and myofibrillar disarray. DNA methylation studies reveal changes which likely contribute to cardiac disease through unknown mechanisms. The incidence of severe COVID-19 disease, including hospitalization, requiring respiratory support, morbidity, and mortality, is disproportionately higher in individuals with co-morbidities. This poses unprecedented strains on the global healthcare system. While their underlying conditions make patients more susceptible to severe COVID-19 disease, strained healthcare systems, lack of adequate support, or sedentary lifestyles from ongoing lockdowns have proved detrimental to their underlying health conditions, thus pushing them to severe risk of congenital heart disease (CHD) itself. Prophylactic vaccines against COVID-19 have ushered new hope for CHD. A common connection between COVID-19 and CHD is SARS-CoV-2’s host receptor ACE2, because ACE2 regulates and protects organs, including the heart, in various ways. ACE2 is a common therapeutic target against cardiovascular disease and COVID-19 which damages organs. Hence, this review explores the above regarding CHDs, cardiovascular damage, and cardiac epigenetics, in COVID-19 patients.

The Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological Classification: Associations with Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Atrial Arrhythmias

The implications of the adult congenital heart disease anatomic and physiological classification (AP-ACHD) for risk assessment have not been adequately studied. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from an ongoing national, multicentre registry of patients with ACHD and atrial arrhythmias (AA) receiving apixaban (PROTECT-AR study, NCT03854149). At enrollment, patients were stratified according to Anatomic class (AnatC, range I to III) and physiological stage (PhyS, range B to D). A follow-up was conducted between May 2019 and September 2021. The primary outcome was a composite of death from any cause, any major thromboembolic event, major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding, or hospitalization. Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling was used to evaluate the risks for the outcome among AP-ACHD classes. Over a median 20-month follow-up period, 47 of 157 (29.9%) ACHD patients with AA experienced the composite outcome. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the outcome in PhyS C and PhyS D were 1.79 (95% CI 0.69 to 4.67) and 8.15 (95% CI 1.52 to 43.59), respectively, as compared with PhyS B. The corresponding aHRs in AnatC II and AnatC III were 1.12 (95% CI 0.37 to 3.41) and 1.06 (95% CI 0.24 to 4.63), respectively, as compared with AnatC I. In conclusion, the PhyS component of the AP-ACHD classification was an independent predictor of net adverse clinical events among ACHD patients with AA.

Tuning and external validation of an adult congenital heart disease risk prediction model

Aims

Adequate risk prediction can optimize the clinical management in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). We aimed to update and subsequently validate a previously developed ACHD risk prediction model.

Methods and results

A prediction model was developed in a prospective cohort study including 602 moderately or severely complex ACHD patients, enrolled as outpatients at a tertiary centre in the Netherlands (2011–2013). Multivariable Cox regression was used to develop a model for predicting the 1-year risks of death, heart failure (HF), or arrhythmia (primary endpoint). The Boston ACHD Biobank study, a prospectively enrolled cohort (n = 749) of outpatients who visited a referral centre in Boston (2012–2017), was used for external validation. The primary endpoint occurred in 153 (26%) and 191 (28%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts over median follow-up of 5.6 and 2.3 years, respectively. The final model included 5 out of 14 pre-specified predictors with the following hazard ratios; New York Heart Association class ≥II: 1.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28–2.90], cardiac medication 2.52 (95% CI 1.72–3.69), ≥1 reintervention after initial repair: 1.56 (95% CI 1.09–2.22), body mass index: 1.04 (95% CI 1.01–1.07), log₂ N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (pmol/L): 1.48 (95% CI 1.32–1.65). At external validation, the model showed good discrimination (C-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.74–0.83) and excellent calibration (calibration-in-the-large = −0.002; calibration slope = 0.99).

Conclusion

These data support the validity and applicability of a parsimonious ACHD risk model based on five readily available clinical variables to accurately predict the 1-year risk of death, HF, or arrhythmia. This risk tool may help guide appropriate care for moderately or severely complex ACHD.

Associations Between Clinical Outcomes and a Recently Proposed Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological Classification System

Background

American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology consensus guidelines introduce an adult congenital heart disease anatomic and physiological (AP) classification system. We assessed the association between AP classification and clinical outcomes.

Methods and Results

Data were collected for 1000 outpatients with ACHD prospectively enrolled between 2012 and 2019. AP classification was assigned based on consensus definitions. Primary outcomes were (1) all‐cause mortality and (2) a composite of all‐cause mortality or nonelective cardiovascular hospitalization. Cox regression models were developed for AP classification, each component variable, and additional clinical models. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C statistic. Over a median follow‐up of 2.5 years (1.4–3.9 years), the composite outcome occurred in 185 participants, including 49 deaths. Moderately or severely complex anatomic class (class II/III) and severe physiological stage (stage D) had increased risk of the composite outcome (AP class IID and IIID hazard ratio, 4.46 and 3.73, respectively, versus IIC). AP classification discriminated moderately between patients who did and did not suffer the composite outcome (C statistic, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.67–0.71]), similar to New York Heart Association functional class and NT‐proBNP (N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide); it was more strongly associated with mortality (C statistic, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.78–0.84]), as were NT‐proBNP and functional class. A model with AP class and NT‐proBNP provided the strongest discrimination for the composite outcome (C statistic, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.71–0.75]) and mortality (C statistic, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.82–0.88]).

Conclusions

The addition of physiological stage modestly improves the discriminative ability of a purely anatomic classification, but simpler approaches offer equivalent prognostic information. The AP system may be improved by addition of key variables, such as circulating biomarkers, and by avoiding categorization of continuous variables.

National and regional registries for congenital heart diseases: Strengths, weaknesses and opportunities

BACKGROUND

We aim to establish a new and informative bi-national Registry for Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) patients in Australia and New Zealand, to document the burden of disease and clinical outcomes for patients with CHDs across the lifespan. When planning for the implementation of this Registry, we sought to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of existing national and large regional CHD databases.

METHODS

We characterised 15 large multi-institutional databases of pediatric and/or adult patients with CHD, documenting the richness of their datasets, the ease of linkage to other databases, the coverage of the target cohort and the strategies utilised for quality control.

RESULTS

The best databases contained demographic, clinical, physical, laboratory and patient-reported data, and were linked at least to the national/regional death registry. They also employed automatic data verification and regular manual audits. Coverage ranged from around 25% of all eligible CHD cases for larger databases to near 100% for some smaller registries of patients with specific CHD lesions, such as the Australia and New Zealand Fontan Registry.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing national and regional CHD databases have strengths and weaknesses; few combine complete coverage with high quality and regularly audited data, across the broad range of CHDs.

Influenza Vaccination in Patients With Congenital Heart Disease in the Pre-COVID-19 Era: Coverage Rate, Patient Characteristics, and Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination is the most commonly recommended immune prevention strategy. However, data on influenza vaccination in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) are scarce. In this study, our goals were to: (1) measure vaccination coverage rates (VCRs) for influenza in a large cohort of children, adolescents, and adults with CHD; (2) identity patient characteristics as predictors for vaccination; and (3) investigate the effect of influenza vaccination on hospitalization.

METHODS

A nationwide cohort study in Belgium included 16,778 patients, representing 134,782 vaccination years, from the Belgian Congenital Heart Disease Database Combining Administrative and Clinical Data (BELCODAC). Data over 9 vaccination years (2006-2015) were used, and patients were stratified into 5 age cohorts: 6 months to 4 years; 5-17 years; 18-49 years; 50-64 years; and 65 years and older.

RESULTS

In the respective age cohorts, the VCR was estimated to be 6.6%, 8.0%, 23.9%, 46.6%, and 72.8%. There was a steep increase in VCRs as of the age of 40 years. Multivariable logistic regression showed that higher anatomical complexity of CHD, older age, presence of genetic syndromes, and previous cardiac interventions were associated with significantly higher VCRs. Among adults, men had lower and pregnant women had higher VCRs. The association between influenza vaccination and all-cause hospitalization was not significant in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

The influenza VCR in people with CHD is low, especially in children and adolescents. Older patients, particularly those with complex CHD, are well covered. Our findings should inform vaccination promotion strategies in populations with CHD.

Surgical management of Ebstein anomaly: impact of the adult congenital heart disease anatomical and physiological classifications

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to evaluate the impact of the adult congenital heart disease anatomical and physiological (ACHD AP) classification system on the surgical management of Ebstein anomaly (EA) in adult patients.

METHODS

From February 2000 through August 2017, data of patients aged at least 16 years, who underwent primary EA surgery, were retrospectively evaluated. The cohort was divided in 2 groups according to their ACHD AP classification: the moderate EA group (IIB, IIC) and the severe EA group (IID). Survival, freedom from reoperation and freedom from occurrence of major adverse advents were estimated.

RESULTS

There were 33 patients (21 women, 12 men). Eighteen belonged to the moderate group, 15 to the severe group. There were 12 female patients (80%) in the severe group. Patients in the moderate group were younger than those in the severe group (P = 0.02): 32 ± 12 vs 44 ± 15 years old. Thirty tricuspid valve repairs and 3 replacements were performed. Repair was mainly performed in the moderate group (P = 0.02). Overall survival was 90.1 ± 5.4% at 9 months after the operation and did not change in the later follow-up period. It was 100% for patients in the moderate group and 80.0 ± 10.3% in the severe group (P = 0.07), and 75.0 ± 12.5% for female patients of in the severe group compared to 100% for the remaining patients (P = 0.025). Survival free from major adverse events, including reoperation, at 10 years was 60.0 ± 12.6% in the moderate and 38.1% ± 12.9% in the severe group (P = 0.03). No patient in the moderate group evolved to be in the severe group at late follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Adult EA patients should undergo surgery earlier when they are still in the moderate ACHD AP classification.

Interobserver agreement of the anatomic and physiological classification system for adult congenital heart disease

The Anatomic and Physiological (AP) classification system proposed in the 2018 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) guidelines assigns 2 dimensions to each patient: anatomic class (AnatC) and physiological stage (PhyS). This approach has not been tested in practice; we assessed interrater reliability and identified sources of disagreement.

METHODS

Consensus definitions for AP categories were developed with input from 4 experts. Research assistants (RAs) assigned AnatC/PhyS for patients in the Boston ACHD Biobank, a prospectively enrolled cohort of ambulatory ACHD patients ≥18 years old seen between 2012 and 2019. Two (of 4) expert reviewers then independently assigned AnatC/PhyS for 41 patients. Interrater reliability was assessed with linearly weighted kappa (κ_ω) for agreement between (1) experts and (2) an RA and an expert. Experts examined disagreements and identified sources of variability and areas requiring clarification.

RESULTS

Interexpert agreement for AnatC was excellent, with agreement on 38/41 (92.7%) cases and κ_ω 0.88 [0.75, 1.01]. Agreement for PhyS was less robust, with consensus on 24/41 cases (59.5%), κ_ω 0.57 [0.39, 0.75]. Expert-RA agreement was lower for AnatC (κ_ω 0.77 [0.60, 0.95]), whereas PhyS was similar to interexpert agreement (κ_ω 0.53 [0.34, 0.72]). There was ambiguity in the definitions of (1) arrhythmia status, (2) cyanotic CHD, and (3) valve disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Although AnatC can be assessed reliably, that is not true for the PhyS part of the AP classification proposed in the 2018 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines. Reliability of PhyS would be strengthened by more precise definitions readily interpretable in clinical practice.

Newly Developed Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological Classification: First Predictive Validity Evaluation

Background

Risk stratification for adults with congenital heart disease is usually based on the anatomic complexity of the patients’ defect. The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guidelines for the management of adults with congenital heart disease proposed a new classification scheme, combining anatomic complexity and current physiological stage of the patient. We aimed to investigate the capacity of the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification to predict 15‐year mortality.

Methods and Results

Data on 5 classification systems were collected for 629 patients at the outpatient clinic for a previous study. After 15 years, data on mortality were obtained through medical record review. For this assessment, we additionally collected information on physiological state to determine the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification. Harrell's concordance statistics index, obtained through a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression, was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63−0.78) for the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification. Harrell's concordance statistics index of the congenital heart disease anatomic component only was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.60−0.74). The highest Harrell's concordance statistics index was obtained for the anatomic complexity in combination with the Congenital Heart Disease Functional Index (0.79; 95% CI, 0.73–0.84).

Conclusions

This first investigation of the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification system provides empirical support for adding the physiological component to the anatomic complexity in the prediction of 15‐year cardiac mortality.