How reliable are tests for trachoma?--a latent class approach

Ocular Signs and Testing Most Compatible with Sarcoidosis-Associated Uveitis: A Latent Class Analysis

Purpose

This study aims to explore the potential subgroups of sarcoidosis-associated uveitis (SAU) within a multicenter cohort of uveitis participants.

Design

Cross-sectional study.

Participants

A cohort of 826 uveitis patients from a uveitis registry from 19 clinical centers in 12 countries between January 2011 and April 2015.

Methods

We employed a latent class analysis (LCA) incorporating recommended tests and clinical signs from the revised International Workshop on Ocular Sarcoidosis (IWOS) to identify potential SAU subgroups within the multicenter uveitis cohort. Additionally, we assessed the performance of the individual tests and clinical signs in classifying the potential subclasses.

Main Outcome Measures

Latent subtypes of SAU.

Results

Among 826 participants included in this analysis, the 2-class LCA model provided a best fit, with the lowest Bayesian information criteria of 7218.7 and an entropy of 0.715. One class, consisting of 548 participants, represented the non-SAU, whereas the second class, comprised of 278 participants, was most representative of SAU. Snowballs/string of pearls vitreous opacities had the best test performance for classification, followed by bilaterality and bilateral hilar lymphadenopathy (BHL). The combination of 4 tests with the highest classification importance, including snowballs/string of pearls vitreous opacities, periphlebitis and/or macroaneurysm, bilaterality, and BHL, demonstrated a sensitivity of 84.8% and a specificity of 95.4% in classifying the SAU subtypes. In the exploratory analysis of the 3-class LCA model, which had comparable fit indices as the 2-class model, we identified a candidate non-SAU subtype, candidate SAU subtype with pulmonary involvement, and a candidate SAU with less pulmonary involvement.

Conclusions

Latent class modeling, incorporating tests and clinical signs from the revised IWOS criteria, effectively identified a subset of participants with clinical features indicative of SAU. Though the sensitivity of individual ocular signs or tests was not perfect, using a combination of tests provided a satisfactory performance in classifying the SAU subclasses identified by the 2-class LCA model. Notably, the classes identified by the 3-class LCA model, including a non-SAU subtype, an SAU subtype with pulmonary involvement, and an SAU subtype with less pulmonary involvement, may have potential implication for clinical practice, and hence should be validated in further research.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Validation of a New Duplex Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction for Chlamydia trachomatis DNA Detection in Ocular Swab Samples

Trachoma is the world-leading infectious cause of preventable blindness and is caused by the bacteria Chlamydia trachomatis. In developing countries, diagnosis is usually based on clinical evaluation. Serological-based tests are cheaper than molecular-based ones, but the latter are more sensitive and specific. The present study developed a new duplex qPCR which concomitantly detects the C. trachomatis cryptic plasmid and the human 18S rRNA gene, with an LOD95% for C. trachomatis DNA of 13.04 genome equivalents per reaction. The new qPCR was tested using 50 samples from an endemic area and 12 from a non-endemic area that were previously characterized using direct immunofluorescence assay (DFA) and clinical evaluation. Among the 50 endemic samples, 3 were found to be positive by clinical evaluation (6%), 18 were found to be positive by DFA (36%), and 48 were found to be positive by qPCR (96%). Next, the new duplex qPCR was validated using 50 samples previously characterized by qPCR. Validation was carried out on a benchtop instrument (ABI7500) or on a portable point-of-care instrument (Q3-Plus), showing 95% specificity and 100% sensitivity. The ubiquitous presence of C. trachomatis DNA in samples from the endemic region confirms that constant monitoring is of paramount importance for the effective measurement of the elimination of trachoma. The newly developed duplex qPCR presented in this study, along with its validation in a portable qPCR system, constitutes important tools toward achieving this goal.

Identification of Subtypes of Dry Eye Disease, Including a Candidate Corneal Neuropathic Pain Subtype Through the Use of a Latent Class Analysis

PURPOSE

In the absence of a gold-standard diagnostic test for different subtypes of dry eye disease (DED), we aimed to identify latent subtypes of DED within a well-characterized cohort.

DESIGN

This is a cross-sectional study of participants enrolled in the Sjögren International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA).

METHODS

A latent class analysis was applied to different dry eye-related signs/tests and symptoms of ocular pain (particularly those that aligned with corneal neuropathic pain) giving relative specificities and sensitivities of each diagnostic test or symptom in the SICCA population.

RESULTS

Four subtypes of DED were identified with putative designations including normal, asymptomatic dry eye, symptomatic dry eye, and corneal neuropathic pain.

CONCLUSIONS

More specific classification criteria are needed for DED. Latent class analysis applied to the signs and symptoms captured in the SICCA cohort may allow for the development and refinement of classification criteria for specific subtypes of dry eye.

Trachoma risk factors in Oromia Region, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Trachoma, the leading infectious cause of blindness, is caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct). Despite enormous disease control efforts and encouraging progress, trachoma remains a significant public health problem in 44 countries. Ethiopia has the greatest burden of trachoma worldwide, however, robust data exploring transmission risk factors and the association between socio-economic status is lacking from some regions. This is the first study to investigate these factors in this South-Eastern region of Oromia, Ethiopia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 1211 individuals were enrolled from 247 households in Shashemene Rural district in Oromia Region between 11th April and 25th June 2018, of whom 628 (51.9%) were female and 526 (43.4%) were children aged 1-9 years. Three standardised ophthalmic nurses examined each participant for the presence of active trachoma using the WHO simplified trachoma grading system. Conjunctival swab samples were collected from the upper tarsal conjunctiva of the left eye of each participant. Ct was detected using quantitative PCR. Risk factor data were collected through structured interviews and direct observations. Clinical signs of trachomatous inflammation-follicular among children aged 1-9 (TF1-9) were observed in at least one eye of 106/526 (20.2%) and trachomatous inflammation-intense among children aged 1-9 (TI1-9) were observed in at least one eye of 10/526 (1.9%). We detected Ct by PCR in 23 individuals, of whom 18 (78.3%) were in children aged 1-9 years. Among the 106 children aged 1-9 years with TF, 12 (11.3%) were Ct PCR positive and among 20 children aged 1-9 years with TI, 4 (20.0%) were Ct PCR positive. In a multivariable model, adjusting for household clustering, active trachoma was associated with younger age, the poorest households (aOR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.21-5.51), presence of flies on the face (aOR = 2.87, 95% CI 1.69-6.46), and ocular discharge (aOR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.03-3.24). Pre-school children face washing more than once a day had lower odds of having active trachoma (aOR = 0.59, 95% CI 0.19-0.84). The same was true for washing children's clothing at least once per week (aOR = 0.27, 95% CI 0.33-1.02).

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

Younger age, personal hygiene in this age group (presence of ocular and nasal discharges, infrequent washing of faces and clothing) and fly-eye contacts are potential risk factors for trachoma in this setting, suggesting that hygiene interventions and environmental improvements are required to suppress transmission to ensure sustained reduction in disease burden Further studies are needed to evaluate these interventions for trachoma control and elimination. Trachoma remains a disease associated with lower socio-economic status, emphasising the need for continued implementation of control measures in addition to poverty reduction interventions in this region.

Insights from mathematical modelling and quantitative analysis on the proposed 2030 goals for trachoma

Trachoma is a neglected tropical disease and the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. The current World Health Organization goal for trachoma is elimination as a public health problem, defined as reaching a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular below 5% in children (1-9 years) and a prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis in adults below 0.2%. Current targets to achieve elimination were set to 2020 but are being extended to 2030. Mathematical and statistical models suggest that 2030 is a realistic timeline for elimination as a public health problem in most trachoma endemic areas. Although the goal can be achieved, it is important to develop appropriate monitoring tools for surveillance after having achieved the elimination target to check for the possibility of resurgence. For this purpose, a standardized serological approach or the use of multiple diagnostics in complement would likely be required.

Insights from mathematical modelling and quantitative analysis on the proposed 2030 goals for trachoma

Trachoma is a neglected tropical disease and the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. The current World Health Organization goal for trachoma is elimination as a public health problem, defined as reaching a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular below 5% in children (1-9 years) and a prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis in adults below 0.2%. Current targets to achieve elimination were set to 2020 but are being extended to 2030. Mathematical and statistical models suggest that 2030 is a realistic timeline for elimination as a public health problem in most trachoma endemic areas. Although the goal can be achieved, it is important to develop appropriate monitoring tools for surveillance after having achieved the elimination target to check for the possibility of resurgence. For this purpose, a standardized serological approach or the use of multiple diagnostics in complement would likely be required.

Trachoma Prevalence After Discontinuation of Mass Azithromycin Distribution

Background

As the World Health Organization seeks to eliminate trachoma by 2020, countries are beginning to control the transmission of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) and discontinue mass drug administration (MDA) with oral azithromycin. We evaluated the effect of MDA discontinuation on TF_1–9 prevalence at the district level.

Methods

We extracted from the available data districts with an impact survey at the end of their program cycle that initiated discontinuation of MDA (TF_1–9 prevalence <5%), followed by a surveillance survey conducted to determine whether TF_1–9 prevalence remained below the 5% threshold, warranting discontinuation of MDA. Two independent analyses were performed, 1 regression based and 1 simulation based, that assessed the change in TF_1–9 from the impact survey to the surveillance survey.

Results

Of the 220 districts included, TF_1–9 prevalence increased to >5% from impact to surveillance survey in 9% of districts. Regression analysis indicated that impact survey TF_1–9 prevalence was a significant predictor of surveillance survey TF_1–9 prevalence. The proportion of simulations with >5% TF_1–9 prevalence in the surveillance survey was 2%, assuming the survey was conducted 4 years after MDA.

Conclusion

An increase in TF_1–9 prevalence may represent disease resurgence but could also be due to measurement error. Improved diagnostic tests are crucial to elimination of TF_1–9 as a public health problem.

Comparison of Smartphone Photography, Single-Lens Reflex Photography, and Field-Grading for Trachoma

Conjunctival examination for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) guides public health decisions for trachoma. Smartphone cameras may allow remote conjunctival grading, but previous studies have found low sensitivity. A random sample of 412 children aged 1-9 years received an in-person conjunctival examination and then had conjunctival photographs taken with 1) a single-lens reflex (SLR) camera and 2) a smartphone coupled to a 3D-printed magnifying attachment. Three masked graders assessed the conjunctival photographs for TF. Latent class analysis was used to determine the sensitivity and specificity of each grading method for TF. Single-lens reflex photo-grading was 95.0% sensitive and 93.6% specific, and smartphone photo-grading was 84.1% sensitive and 97.6% specific. The sensitivity of the smartphone-CellScope device was considerably higher than that of a previous study using the native smartphone camera, without attachment. Magnification of smartphone images with a simple attachment improved the grading sensitivity while maintaining high specificity in a region with hyperendemic trachoma.

Ocular Clinical Signs and Diagnostic Tests Most Compatible With Keratoconjunctivitis Sicca: A Latent Class Approach

PURPOSE

To evaluate the ocular signs and tests for keratoconjunctivitis sicca (KCS) in the absence of a gold standard.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of participants from the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) registry. Participants had oral/ocular/rheumatologic examinations, blood/saliva samples collected, and salivary gland biopsy. Latent class analysis (LCA) identified clusters of patients based on 3 to 4 predictor variables relating to signs or tests of KCS. The resulting model-based "gold standard" classification formed the basis for estimated sensitivity and specificity associated with these predictors.

RESULTS

A total of 3514 participants were enrolled into SICCA, with 52.9% classified as SS. LCA revealed a best-fit model with 2 groups. For the gold standard-positive group, an abnormal tear breakup time, ocular staining score (OSS), and Schirmer I had a sensitivity of 99.5%, 91.0%, and 47.4%, respectively. For the gold standard-negative group, an abnormal tear breakup time, OSS, and Schirmer I had a specificity of 32.0%, 84.0%, and 88.5%, respectively. OSS components (fluorescein and lissamine staining), exhibited a sensitivity of 82.6% and 90.5%, respectively, in the gold standard-positive group, whereas these signs in the gold standard-negative group had a specificity of 88.8% and 73.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

OSS and its components (fluorescein and lissamine staining) differentiated 2 groups from each other better than other KCS parameters and had relatively high sensitivity and specificity.

Diagnostic test evaluation methodology: A systematic review of methods employed to evaluate diagnostic tests in the absence of gold standard - An update

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review methods developed and employed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of medical test when there is a missing or no gold standard.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS

Articles that proposed or applied any methods to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of medical test(s) in the absence of gold standard were reviewed. The protocol for this review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018089349).

RESULTS

Identified methods were classified into four main groups: methods employed when there is a missing gold standard; correction methods (which make adjustment for an imperfect reference standard with known diagnostic accuracy measures); methods employed to evaluate a medical test using multiple imperfect reference standards; and other methods, like agreement studies, and a mixed group of alternative study designs. Fifty-one statistical methods were identified from the review that were developed to evaluate medical test(s) when the true disease status of some participants is unverified with the gold standard. Seven correction methods were identified and four methods were identified to evaluate medical test(s) using multiple imperfect reference standards. Flow-diagrams were developed to guide the selection of appropriate methods.

CONCLUSION

Various methods have been proposed to evaluate medical test(s) in the absence of a gold standard for some or all participants in a diagnostic accuracy study. These methods depend on the availability of the gold standard, its' application to the participants in the study and the availability of alternative reference standard(s). The clinical application of some of these methods, especially methods developed when there is missing gold standard is however limited. This may be due to the complexity of these methods and/or a disconnection between the fields of expertise of those who develop (e.g. mathematicians) and those who employ the methods (e.g. clinical researchers). This review aims to help close this gap with our classification and guidance tools.

Antibiotics for trachoma

BACKGROUND

Trachoma is the world's leading infectious cause of blindness. In 1996, WHO launched the Alliance for the Global Elimination of Trachoma by the year 2020, based on the 'SAFE' strategy (surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement).

OBJECTIVES

To assess the evidence supporting the antibiotic arm of the SAFE strategy by assessing the effects of antibiotics on both active trachoma (primary objective), Chlamydia trachomatis infection of the conjunctiva, antibiotic resistance, and adverse effects (secondary objectives).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched relevant electronic databases and trials registers. The date of the last search was 4 January 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that satisfied either of two criteria: (a) trials in which topical or oral administration of an antibiotic was compared to placebo or no treatment in people or communities with trachoma, (b) trials in which a topical antibiotic was compared with an oral antibiotic in people or communities with trachoma. We also included studies addressing different dosing strategies in the population.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methods expected by Cochrane. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 14 studies where individuals with trachoma were randomised and 12 cluster-randomised studies. Any antibiotic versus control (individuals)Nine studies (1961 participants) randomised individuals with trachoma to antibiotic or control (no treatment or placebo). All of these studies enrolled children and young people with active trachoma. The antibiotics used in these studies included topical (oxy)tetracycline (5 studies), doxycycline (2 studies), and sulfonamides (4 studies). Four studies had more than two study arms. In general these studies were poorly reported, and it was difficult to judge risk of bias.These studies provided low-certainty evidence that people with active trachoma treated with antibiotics experienced a reduction in active trachoma at three months (risk ratio (RR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 0.89; 1961 people; 9 RCTs; I² = 73%) and 12 months (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.00; 1035 people; 4 RCTs; I² = 90%). Low-certainty evidence was available for ocular infection at three months (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.04; 297 people; 4 RCTs; I² = 0%) and 12 months (RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.78; 129 people; 1 RCT). None of these studies assessed antimicrobial resistance. In those studies that reported harms, no serious adverse effects were reported (low-certainty evidence).Oral versus topical antibiotics (individuals)Eight studies (1583 participants) compared oral and topical antibiotics. Only one study included people older than 21 years of age. Oral antibiotics included azithromycin (5 studies), sulfonamides (2 studies), and doxycycline (1 study). Topical antibiotics included (oxy)tetracycline (6 studies), azithromycin (1 study), and sulfonamide (1 study). These studies were poorly reported, and it was difficult to judge risk of bias.There was low-certainty evidence of little or no difference in effect between oral and topical antibiotics on active trachoma at three months (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.16; 953 people; 6 RCTs; I² = 63%) and 12 months (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.15; 886 people; 5 RCTs; I² = 56%). There was very low-certainty evidence for ocular infection at three or 12 months. Antimicrobial resistance was not assessed. In those studies that reported adverse effects, no serious adverse effects were reported; one study reported abdominal pain with azithromycin; one study reported a couple of cases of nausea with azithromycin; and one study reported three cases of reaction to sulfonamides (low-certainty evidence).Oral azithromycin versus control (communities)Four cluster-randomised studies compared antibiotic with no or delayed treatment. Data were available on active trachoma at 12 months from two studies but could not be pooled because of reporting differences. One study at low risk of bias found a reduced prevalence of active trachoma 12 months after a single dose of azithromycin in communities with a high prevalence of infection (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.65; 1247 people). The other, lower quality, study in low-prevalence communities reported similar median prevalences of infection at 12 months: 9.3% in communities treated with azithromycin and 8.2% in untreated communities. We judged this moderate-certainty evidence for a reduction in active trachoma with treatment, downgrading one level for inconsistency between the two studies. Two studies reported ocular infection at 12 months and data could be pooled. There was a reduction in ocular infection (RR 0.36, 0.31 to 0.43; 2139 people) 12 months after mass treatment with a single dose compared with no treatment (moderate-certainty evidence). There was high-certainty evidence of an increased risk of resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli to azithromycin, tetracycline, and clindamycin in communities treated with azithromycin, with approximately 5-fold risk ratios at 12 months. The evidence did not support increased resistance to penicillin or trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. None of the studies measured resistance to C trachomatis. No serious adverse events were reported. The main adverse effect noted for azithromycin (˜10%) was abdominal pain, vomiting, and nausea.Oral azithromycin versus topical tetracycline (communities)Three cluster-randomised studies compared oral azithromycin with topical tetracycline. The evidence was inconsistent for active trachoma and ocular infection at three and 12 months (low-certainty evidence) and was not pooled due to considerable heterogeneity. Antimicrobial resistance and adverse effects were not reported.Different dosing strategiesSix studies compared different strategies for dosing. There were: mass treatment at different dosing intervals; applying cessation or stopping rules to mass treatment; strategies to increase mass treatment coverage. There was no strong evidence to support any variation in the recommended annual mass treatment.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic treatment may reduce the risk of active trachoma and ocular infection in people infected with C trachomatis, compared to no treatment/placebo, but the size of the treatment effect in individuals is uncertain. Mass antibiotic treatment with single dose oral azithromycin reduces the prevalence of active trachoma and ocular infection in communities. There is no strong evidence to support any variation in the recommended periodicity of annual mass treatment. There is evidence of an increased risk of antibiotic resistance at 12 months in communities treated with antibiotics.

Community-level Association between Clinical Trachoma and Ocular Chlamydia Infection after MASS Azithromycin Distribution in a Mesoendemic Region of Niger

Purpose: The clinical sign trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) is used to monitor indication for and response to mass azithromycin distribution in trachoma-endemic communities. Here, we assess the relationship between TF, trachomatous inflammation - intense (TI), and infection with ocular Chlamydia trachomatis over time during annual mass azithromycin distribution. Methods: We used data from a cluster-randomized trial of mass azithromycin distribution for trachoma control in a mesoendemic region of Niger. This study includes 24 communities that received 3 years of annual mass azithromycin distribution. TF, TI, and ocular chlamydia infection were monitored among children aged 0-5 years. We assessed the correlation between the prevalence of ocular chlamydia infection and 1) TF and 2) TI prevalence over time. Results: At baseline, ocular chlamydia prevalence was 21.2% (95% CI 14.3-28.1%), TF prevalence was 27.7% (95% CI 21.2-34.2%), and TI prevalence was 8.3% (95% CI 5.2-11.5%). The prevalence of all three measures decreased significantly over time (P < 0.001). At baseline, ocular chlamydia infection prevalence was strongly correlated with both TF (rho = 0.78, P < 0.0001) and TI (rho = 0.76, P < 0.0001). The correlation between ocular chlamydia infection and both TF and TI was weak at months 12 and 24. At 36 months, when TF prevalence had dropped below 10%, ocular chlamydia infection and TF were moderately correlated (rho = 0.70, P= 0.0002). Conclusions: Both TF and TI are good indicators of infection prevalence prior to mass azithromycin distribution. However, this relationship may be affected by repeated rounds of mass azithromycin distribution.

Sensitivity and specificity of computer vision classification of eyelid photographs for programmatic trachoma assessment

Background/aims

Trachoma programs base treatment decisions on the community prevalence of the clinical signs of trachoma, assessed by direct examination of the conjunctiva. Automated assessment could be more standardized and more cost-effective. We tested the hypothesis that an automated algorithm could classify eyelid photographs better than chance.

Methods

A total of 1,656 field-collected conjunctival images were obtained from clinical trial participants in Niger and Ethiopia. Images were scored for trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) and trachomatous inflammation—intense (TI) according to the simplified World Health Organization grading system by expert raters. We developed an automated procedure for image enhancement followed by application of a convolutional neural net classifier for TF and separately for TI. One hundred images were selected for testing TF and TI, and these images were not used for training.

Results

The agreement score for TF and TI tasks for the automated algorithm relative to expert graders was κ = 0.44 (95% CI: 0.26 to 0.62, P < 0.001) and κ = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.55 to 0.84, P < 0.001), respectively.

Discussion

For assessing the clinical signs of trachoma, a convolutional neural net performed well above chance when tested against expert consensus. Further improvements in specificity may render this method suitable for field use.

Optimising sampling regimes and data collection to inform surveillance for trachoma control

It is estimated that 190 million individuals are at risk of blindness from trachoma, and that control by mass drug administration (MDA) is reducing this risk in many populations. Programs are monitored using prevalence of follicular trachoma disease (TF) in children. However, as programs progress to low prevalence there are challenges interpreting this indirect measure of infection. PCR and sero-surveillance are being considered as complementary tools to monitor low-level transmission, but there are questions on how they can be most effectively used. We use a previously-published, mathematical model to explore the dynamic relationship between TF and PCR throughout a control program and a sero-catalytic model to evaluate the utility of two cross-sectional sero-surveys for estimating sero-conversion rates. The simulations show that whilst PCR is more sensitive than TF at detecting infection, the probability of detecting at least one positive individual declines during an MDA program more quickly for PCR than for TF (for the same sample size). Towards the end of a program there is a moderate chance of a random sample showing both low PCR prevalence and higher TF prevalence, which may contribute to the lack of correlation observed in epidemiological studies. We also show that conducting two cross-sectional sero-surveys 10 years apart can provide more precise and accurate estimation of epidemiological parameters than a single survey, supporting previous findings that whilst serology holds great promise, multiple cross-sections from the same community are needed to generate the most valuable information about transmission. These results highlight that the quantitative dynamics of infection and disease should be included alongside the many logistical and practical factors to be considered in designing a monitoring and evaluation strategy at the operational research level, in order to help subsequently inform data collection for individual country programs. Whilst our simulations provide some insight, they also highlight that some level of longitudinal, individual-level data on reinfection and disease may be needed to monitor elimination progress.

Prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis-Specific Antibodies before and after Mass Drug Administration for Trachoma in Community-Wide Surveys of Four Communities in Nepal

The target end date for the global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem is 2020. As countries begin the process for submitting their dossier for the validation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem, strategies for post-validation surveillance must be considered. Seroprevalence of antibodies against antigens from the causative bacteria Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) in young children has been shown to reflect trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) rates in both endemic and previously endemic settings. However, none of these studies has directly compared age seroprevalence in the same communities before and after mass drug administration (MDA) for trachoma. Here we report a marked shift in age seroprevalence curves in four villages in Kapilvastu District, Nepal, before and after MDA. Clinical examinations were performed and blood was taken before (N = 659) and 5 years after (N = 646) MDA. Rates of TF decreased from 17.6% in ≤ 9-year-olds before MDA (N = 52) to 0% in ≤ 9-year-olds (N = 73) after MDA. Positive antibody responses to Ct in the entire population decreased from 82.1% pre-MDA to 35.8% post-MDA, whereas those among ≤ 9-year-olds decreased from 59.6% to 4.1%. These data show that the postintervention decrease in TF was reflected in a drop in anti-Ct antibody responses, suggesting that antibody responses could be useful indicators for post-validation surveillance.

Elimination of trachoma as a public health problem in Ghana: Providing evidence through a pre-validation survey

Background

In order to achieve elimination of trachoma, a country needs to demonstrate that the elimination prevalence thresholds have been achieved and then sustained for at least a two-year period. Ghana achieved the thresholds in 2008, and since 2011 has been implementing its trachoma surveillance strategy, which includes community and school screening for signs of follicular trachoma and trichiasis, in trachoma-endemic districts. In 2015–2016, the country conducted a district level population-based survey to validate elimination of trachoma as a public health problem.

Methods

As per WHO recommendations, a cross-sectional survey, employing a two-stage cluster random sampling methodology, was used across 18 previously trachoma endemic districts (evaluation units (EUs) in the Upper West and Northern Regions of Ghana. In each EU 24 villages were selected based on probability proportional to estimated size. A minimum of 40 households were targeted per village and all eligible residents were examined for clinical signs of trachoma, using the WHO simplified grading system. The number of trichiasis cases unknown to the health system was determined. Household environmental risk factors for trachoma were also assessed.

Results

Data from 45,660 individuals were examined from 11,099 households across 18 EUs, with 27,398 (60.0%) children aged 1–9 years and 16,610 (36.4%) individuals 15 years and above All EUs had shown to have maintained the WHO elimination threshold for Trachomatous inflammation-Follicular (TF) (<5.0% prevalence) in children aged 1–9 years old. The EU TF prevalence in children aged 1–9 years old ranged from between 0.09% to 1.20%. Only one EU (Yendi 0.36%; 95% CI: 0.0–1.01) failed to meet the WHO TT elimination threshold (< 0.2% prevalence in adults aged 15 and above). The EU prevalence of trichiasis (TT) unknown to the health system in adults aged ≥15 years, ranged from 0.00% to 0.36%. In this EU, the estimated TT backlog is 417 All TT patients identified in the study, as well as through on-going surveillance efforts will require further management. A total of 75.9% (95% CI 72.1–79.3, EU range 29.1–92.6) of households defecated in the open but many households had access to an improved water source 75.9% (95%CI: 71.5–79.8, EU range 47.4–90.1%), with 45.5% (95% CI 41.5–49.7%, EU range 28.4–61.8%) making a round trip of water collection < 30 minutes.

Conclusion

The findings from this survey indicate elimination thresholds have been maintained in Ghana in 17 of the 18 surveyed EUs. Only one EU, Yendi, did not achieve the TT elimination threshold. A scheduled house-by-house TT case search in this EU coupled with surgery to clear the backlog of cases is necessary in order for Ghana to request validation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem.

Trachoma is an eye disease caused by an infection with Chlamydia trachomatis. It is the leading cause of blindness due to infection globally. However, trachoma is both treatable and preventable through antibiotics and surgery, and may be preventable with basic hygiene improvements. Thus, the Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial cleanliness and Environmental modification (SAFE) strategy is endorsed by the World Health Organization for the implementation of interventions. Trachoma is a progressive disease. Clinically active trachoma, the follicular (trachomatous-inflammation follicular (TF)) and intense (trachomatous- inflammation intense (TI)) phases are most common in children aged 1–9 years old while complications such as in turned lashes and loss of vision are found mainly in adults. Globally, the disease is earmarked for elimination as a public health problem by the year 2020. In Ghana, studies conducted in 2000–2003 identified trachoma as endemic in the Upper West and Northern regions and by 2004 the elimination strategy based on Surgery, Antibiotics treatment, Face washing and Environmental improvement, was being implemented in all 18 districts in the two regions. Surveys conducted in 2008 indicated that the strategy had been successful with reduction of clinically active trachoma to elimination levels in all 18 districts. Ghana implemented a post-elimination surveillance phase from 2011–2014 and conducted a formal prevalence survey in 2015–2016 using WHO standard grading methodologies, the results of which are presented here. The results showed that TF prevalence was below the 5% elimination target in children aged 1–9 years old in all 18 districts, while TT was below 2 cases in every 1000 persons aged 15 and above in all 18 endemic districts except one (Yendi district). Ghana has put in place a TT case search of all persons 15 years and above in the Yendi district to identify persons with the complications and offer surgery to them. The outcomes of these investigations will enable Ghana to provide evidence for WHO dossier submission, to acknowledge validation of elimination of trachoma as public health problem.

The Relationship between Active Trachoma and Ocular Chlamydia trachomatis Infection before and after Mass Antibiotic Treatment

Background

Trachoma is a blinding disease, initiated in early childhood by repeated conjunctival infection with the obligate intracellular bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis. The population prevalence of the clinical signs of active trachoma; ‘‘follicular conjunctivitis” (TF) and/or ‘‘intense papillary inflammation” (TI), guide programmatic decisions regarding the initiation and cessation of mass drug administration (MDA). However, the persistence of TF following resolution of infection at both the individual and population level raises concerns over the suitability of this clinical sign as a marker for C. trachomatis infection.

Methodology/Principle Findings

We systematically reviewed the literature for population-based studies and those including randomly selected individuals, which reported the prevalence of the clinical signs of active trachoma and ocular C. trachomatis infection by nucleic acid amplification test. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between active trachoma and C. trachomatis infection before and after MDA. TF and C. trachomatis infection were strongly correlated prior to MDA (r = 0.92, 95%CI 0.83 to 0.96, p<0.0001); the relationship was similar when the analysis was limited to children. A moderate correlation was found between TI and prevalence of infection. Following MDA, the relationship between TF and infection prevalence was weaker (r = 0.60, 95%CI 0.25 to 0.81, p = 0.003) and there was no correlation between TI and C. trachomatis infection.

Conclusions/Significance

Prior to MDA, TF is a good indicator of the community prevalence of C. trachomatis infection. Following MDA, the prevalence of TF tends to overestimate the underlying infection prevalence. In order to prevent unnecessary additional rounds of MDA and to accurately ascertain when elimination goals have been reached, a cost-effective test for C. trachomatis that can be administered in low-resource settings remains desirable.

Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide, caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis. Repeated infection of the conjunctiva during childhood can initiate chronic conjunctival inflammation. This can lead to conjunctival scarring, in turning of the eyelashes, abrasion of the eyelashes on the cornea and eventually blindness later in adulthood. The World Health Organization recommends mass drug administration (MDA) for infection control when the prevalence of the clinical sign of Active Trachoma (TF) is ≥10% in 1–9 year olds. This systematic review of the literature examined the relationship between TF and C. trachomatis infection before and after MDA in order to evaluate the usefulness of TF for guiding trachoma control programmes. The population prevalence of TF and C. trachomatis infection were strongly correlated prior to MDA, however the relationship was weaker after MDA with a greater tendency for TF to overestimate the underlying infection prevalence. A cost effective test for C. trachomatis suitable for use in low resource settings could prevent unnecessary additional rounds of MDA in the population and could identify when trachoma elimination goals have been reached at an earlier time point.

Low Prevalence of Conjunctival Infection with Chlamydia trachomatis in a Treatment-Naïve Trachoma-Endemic Region of the Solomon Islands

BACKGROUND

Trachoma is endemic in several Pacific Island states. Recent surveys across the Solomon Islands indicated that whilst trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) was present at levels warranting intervention, the prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) was low. We set out to determine the relationship between chlamydial infection and trachoma in this population.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based trachoma prevalence survey of 3674 individuals from two Solomon Islands provinces. Participants were examined for clinical signs of trachoma. Conjunctival swabs were collected from all children aged 1-9 years. We tested swabs for Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) DNA using droplet digital PCR. Chlamydial DNA from positive swabs was enriched and sequenced for use in phylogenetic analysis.

RESULTS

We observed a moderate prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years (n = 296/1135, 26.1%) but low prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI) (n = 2/1135, 0.2%) and current Ct infection (n = 13/1002, 1.3%) in children aged 1-9 years, and TT in those aged 15+ years (n = 2/2061, 0.1%). Ten of 13 (76.9%) cases of infection were in persons with TF or TI (p = 0.0005). Sequence analysis of the Ct-positive samples yielded 5/13 (38%) complete (>95% coverage of reference) genome sequences, and 8/13 complete plasmid sequences. Complete sequences all aligned most closely to ocular serovar reference strains.

DISCUSSION

The low prevalence of TT, TI and Ct infection that we observed are incongruent with the high proportion of children exhibiting signs of TF. TF is present at levels that apparently warrant intervention, but the scarcity of other signs of trachoma indicates the phenotype is mild and may not pose a significant public health threat. Our data suggest that, whilst conjunctival Ct infection appears to be present in the region, it is present at levels that are unlikely to be the dominant driving force for TF in the population. This could be one reason for the low prevalence of TT observed during the study.

Short-term forecasting of the prevalence of clinical trachoma: utility of including delayed recovery and tests for infection

Background

The World Health Organization aims to control blinding trachoma by 2020. Decisions on whether to start and stop mass treatments and when to declare that control has been achieved are currently based on clinical examination data generated in population-based surveys. Thresholds are based on the district-level prevalence of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) in children aged 1–9 years. Forecasts of which districts may and may not meet TF control goals by the 2020 target date could affect resource allocation in the next few years.

Methods

We constructed a hidden Markov model fit to the prevalence of two clinical signs of trachoma and PCR data in 24 communities from the recent PRET-Niger trial. The prevalence of TF in children in each community at 36 months was forecast given data from earlier time points. Forecasts were scored by the likelihood of the observed results. We assessed whether use of TF with additional TI and PCR data rather than just the use of TF alone improves forecasts, and separately whether incorporating a delay in TF recovery is beneficial.

Results

Including TI and PCR data did not significantly improve forecasts of TF. Forecasts of TF prevalence at 36 months by the model with the delay in TF recovery were significantly better than forecasts by the model without the delay in TF recovery (p = 0.003). A zero-inflated truncated normal observation model was better than a truncated normal observation model, and better than a sensitivity-specificity observation model.

Conclusion

The results in this study suggest that future studies could consider using just TF data for forecasting, and should include a delay in TF recovery.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1115-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Agreement between novice and experienced trachoma graders improves after a single day of didactic training

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Prevalence estimates and treatment decisions for trachoma are based entirely on ocular clinical examination. The aim of the current study is to demonstrate that ophthalmic assistants can be trained and certified to provide trachoma grading within a single day.

METHODS

Conjunctival photographs from an area with endemic trachoma were randomised into two sets of 60 cases. Photographs were graded for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI) by three experienced graders. Inter-rater reliability of eight ophthalmic assistants and three experienced graders were compared before and after training.

RESULTS

The mean κ agreement between the ophthalmic assistants and the consensus grades of the experienced graders for TF was 0.38 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.58) before training, and increased to 0.60 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.78) after training (p=0.07). The mean κ agreement for TI was 0.16 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.30) before training, and increased to 0.39 (95% CI 0.20 to 0.58) after training (p=0.02).

CONCLUSION

A single day of training improves agreement between prospective and experienced trachoma graders, and provides the basis for certification of workers who are able to accurately grade trachoma and generate reliable prevalence estimates.

Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

Background

Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion.

Methods

The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic.

Findings

Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts.

Interpretation

Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models.

Forecasts of infectious diseases are rarely made in a falsifiable manner. Trachoma trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. The World Health Organization recommends at least three annual antibiotic mass drug administrations where the prevalence of trachoma is greater than 10% in children aged 1–9 years, with coverage at least at 80%. The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Here, we compared forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months (given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, and masked to the 36-month assessments) made by experts, statistical regression, and a transmission model. The transmission model was better than regression, with both far better than experts’ opinion. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models.

Serology for trachoma surveillance after cessation of mass drug administration

Background

Trachoma, caused by Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct), is the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. Yearly azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) plays a central role in efforts to eliminate blinding trachoma as a public health problem. Programmatic decision-making is currently based on the prevalence of the clinical sign “trachomatous inflammation-follicular” (TF) in children. We sought to test alternative tools for trachoma surveillance based on serology in the 12-year cohort of Kahe Mpya, Rombo District, Tanzania, where ocular chlamydial infection was eliminated with azithromycin MDA by 2005.

Methodology and Principal Findings

The present study was a community-based cross-sectional survey in Kahe Mpya. Of 989 residents, 571 people aged 6 months to 87 years were enrolled: 58% of the total population and 73% of 1–9 year olds, the key WHO indicator age group. Participants were examined for TF, had conjunctival swabs collected for nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT)-based detection of Ct, and blood collected for analysis of antibodies to the Ct antigens pgp3 and CT694 by multiplex bead-based immunoassay. Seroconversion rate was used to estimate changes in the force of infection in a reversible catalytic model. No conjunctival swabs tested positive for Ct infection by NAAT. Among 1–9 year olds, TF prevalence was 6.5%, whereas only 3.5% were seropositive. Force of infection modelling indicated a 10-fold decrease in seroconversion rate at a time corresponding to MDA commencement. Without baseline serological data, the inferences we can make about antibody status before MDA and the longevity of the antibody response are limited, though our use of catalytic modelling overcomes some of these limitations.

Conclusions/Significance

Serologic tests support NAAT findings of very low to zero prevalence of ocular Ct in this community and have potential to provide objective measures of transmission and useful surveillance tools for trachoma elimination programs.

Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness. The infectious agent, Chlamydia trachomatis, can be treated with a single oral dose of azithromycin. Donated drug is a cornerstone of programs dedicated to the elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. Azithromycin is given to the entire district for 3–5 years when 10% or more of 1–9 year-olds in the district have signs of a defined follicular conjunctivitis in one or both eyes. However, follicles can be difficult to reliably diagnose and can be caused by other pathogens, especially in settings with low trachoma prevalence. More sensitive and specific ways to assess communities for trachoma transmission at program endpoints are needed. Herein we examined antibody responses in children living in a community in Tanzania born after stopping drug treatment 10 years previously. Low antibody levels (3.5% in 1–9 year-olds) reflected the lack of ocular chlamydial infection in these children. We also modelled the data to show that changes in age-specific antibody prevalence occurred when the mass drug treatment stopped. These data suggest that the age-specific prevalence of antibody responses may be of use to programs seeking to demonstrate the impact of interventions against trachoma.

Trachoma

Trachoma is the most common infectious cause of blindness. Repeated episodes of infection with Chlamydia trachomatis in childhood lead to severe conjunctival inflammation, scarring, and potentially blinding inturned eyelashes (trichiasis or entropion) in later life. Trachoma occurs in resource-poor areas with inadequate hygiene, where children with unclean faces share infected ocular secretions. Much has been learnt about the epidemiology and pathophysiology of trachoma. Integrated control programmes are implementing the SAFE Strategy: surgery for trichiasis, mass distribution of antibiotics, promotion of facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement. This strategy has successfully eliminated trachoma in several countries and global efforts are underway to eliminate blinding trachoma worldwide by 2020.

Evaluation of pooled ocular and vaginal swabs by the Cepheid GeneXpert CT/NG assay for the detection of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae compared to the GenProbe Aptima Combo 2 Assay

Ocular swabs from Tanzania were tested for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), and self-collected vaginal swabs collected through a home collection program, iwantthekit.org, were tested for Neisseria gonorrhoeae and CT to evaluate Cepheid GeneXpert for the use of pooling multiple specimens before testing. GeneXpert shows to be a promising test for pooling.

Importance of including borderline cases in trachoma grader certification

We assessed trachoma grading agreement among field graders using photographs that included the complete spectrum of disease and compared it with cases where there was consensus among experienced graders. Trained photographers took photographs of children's conjunctiva during a clinical trial in Ethiopia. We calculated κ-agreement statistics using a complete set of 60 cases and then recalculated the κ using a consensus set where cases were limited to those cases with agreement among experienced graders. When the complete set of 60 cases was used, agreement was moderate (κ = 0.61, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.56-0.67). When the consensus set was used, agreement improved significantly (κ = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.68-0.80). The κ of the consensus set was higher than the complete set by 0.14 (95% CI = 0.12-0.16) (P < 0.001). If testing sets remove difficult-to-grade cases, agreement in trachoma grading may be higher than actually seen in population-based trachoma surveys.

Reliability of trachoma clinical grading--assessing grading of marginal cases

BACKGROUND

Clinical examination of trachoma is used to justify intervention in trachoma-endemic regions. Currently, field graders are certified by determining their concordance with experienced graders using the kappa statistic. Unfortunately, trachoma grading can be highly variable and there are cases where even expert graders disagree (borderline/marginal cases). Prior work has shown that inclusion of borderline cases tends to reduce apparent agreement, as measured by kappa. Here, we confirm those results and assess performance of trainees on these borderline cases by calculating their reliability error, a measure derived from the decomposition of the Brier score.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We trained 18 field graders using 200 conjunctival photographs from a community-randomized trial in Niger and assessed inter-grader agreement using kappa as well as reliability error. Three experienced graders scored each case for the presence or absence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI). A consensus grade for each case was defined as the one given by a majority of experienced graders. We classified cases into a unanimous subset if all 3 experienced graders gave the same grade. For both TF and TI grades, the mean kappa for trainees was higher on the unanimous subset; inclusion of borderline cases reduced apparent agreement by 15.7% for TF and 12.4% for TI. When we assessed the breakdown of the reliability error, we found that our trainees tended to over-call TF grades and under-call TI grades, especially in borderline cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The kappa statistic is widely used for certifying trachoma field graders. Exclusion of borderline cases, which even experienced graders disagree on, increases apparent agreement with the kappa statistic. Graders may agree less when exposed to the full spectrum of disease. Reliability error allows for the assessment of these borderline cases and can be used to refine an individual trainee's grading.

Pooling ocular swab specimens from Tanzania for testing by Roche Amplicor and Aptima Combo 2 assays for the detection of Chlamydia trachomatis: accuracy and cost-savings

Ocular swabs collected in Tanzania were evaluated by Amplicor CT PCR and Aptima Combo2 assays for the detection of Chlamydia trachomatis to determine if pooling could be used to reduce the cost of detection. Pooling would be an accurate method and has thus far resulted in a cost-savings of 62.2%.

Comparison of two methods for composite score generation in dry eye syndrome

PURPOSE

To compare two methods of composite score generation in dry eye syndrome (DES).

METHODS

Male patients seen in the Miami Veterans Affairs eye clinic with normal eyelid, corneal, and conjunctival anatomy were recruited to participate in the study. Patients filled out the Dry Eye Questionnaire 5 (DEQ5) and underwent measurement of tear film parameters. DES severity scores were generated by independent component analysis (ICA) and latent class analysis (LCA).

RESULTS

A total of 247 men were included in the study. Mean age was 69 years (SD 9). Using ICA analysis, osmolarity was found to carry the largest weight, followed by eyelid vascularity and meibomian orifice plugging. Conjunctival injection and tear breakup time (TBUT) carried the lowest weights. Using LCA analysis, TBUT was found to be best at discriminating healthy from diseased eyes, followed closely by Schirmer's test. DEQ5, eyelid vascularity, and conjunctival injection were the poorest at discrimination. The adjusted correlation coefficient between the two generated composite scores was 0.63, indicating that the shared variance was less than 40%.

CONCLUSIONS

Both ICA and LCA produced composite scores for dry eye severity, with weak to moderate agreement; however, agreement for the relative importance of single diagnostic tests was poor between the two methods.

Comparing the performance of cluster random sampling and integrated threshold mapping for targeting trachoma control, using computer simulation

BACKGROUND

Implementation of trachoma control strategies requires reliable district-level estimates of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), generally collected using the recommended gold-standard cluster randomized surveys (CRS). Integrated Threshold Mapping (ITM) has been proposed as an integrated and cost-effective means of rapidly surveying trachoma in order to classify districts according to treatment thresholds. ITM differs from CRS in a number of important ways, including the use of a school-based sampling platform for children aged 1-9 and a different age distribution of participants. This study uses computerised sampling simulations to compare the performance of these survey designs and evaluate the impact of varying key parameters.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Realistic pseudo gold standard data for 100 districts were generated that maintained the relative risk of disease between important sub-groups and incorporated empirical estimates of disease clustering at the household, village and district level. To simulate the different sampling approaches, 20 clusters were selected from each district, with individuals sampled according to the protocol for ITM and CRS. Results showed that ITM generally under-estimated the true prevalence of TF over a range of epidemiological settings and introduced more district misclassification according to treatment thresholds than did CRS. However, the extent of underestimation and resulting misclassification was found to be dependent on three main factors: (i) the district prevalence of TF; (ii) the relative risk of TF between enrolled and non-enrolled children within clusters; and (iii) the enrollment rate in schools.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Although in some contexts the two methodologies may be equivalent, ITM can introduce a bias-dependent shift as prevalence of TF increases, resulting in a greater risk of misclassification around treatment thresholds. In addition to strengthening the evidence base around choice of trachoma survey methodologies, this study illustrates the use of a simulated approach in addressing operational research questions for trachoma but also other NTDs.

The geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa

Background

There remains a lack of epidemiological data on the geographical distribution of trachoma to support global mapping and scale up of interventions for the elimination of trachoma. The Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT) was launched in 2011 to address these needs and provide standardised, updated and accessible maps. This paper uses data included in the GAT to describe the geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa.

Methods

Data assembly used structured searches of published and unpublished literature to identify cross-sectional epidemiological data on the burden of trachoma since 1980. Survey data were abstracted into a standardised database and mapped using geographical information systems (GIS) software. The characteristics of all surveys were summarized by country according to data source, time period, and survey methodology. Estimates of the current population at risk were calculated for each country and stratified by endemicity class.

Results

At the time of writing, 1342 records are included in the database representing surveys conducted between 1985 and 2012. These data were provided by direct contact with national control programmes and academic researchers (67%), peer-reviewed publications (17%) and unpublished reports or theses (16%). Prevalence data on active trachoma are available in 29 of the 33 countries in Africa classified as endemic for trachoma, and 1095 (20.6%) districts have representative data collected through population-based prevalence surveys. The highest prevalence of active trachoma and trichiasis remains in the Sahel area of West Africa and Savannah areas of East and Central Africa and an estimated 129.4 million people live in areas of Africa confirmed to be trachoma endemic.

Conclusion

The Global Atlas of Trachoma provides the most contemporary and comprehensive summary of the burden of trachoma within Africa. The GAT highlights where future mapping is required and provides an important planning tool for scale-up and surveillance of trachoma control.

In order to target resources and drugs to reach trachoma elimination targets by the year 2020, data on the burden of disease are required. Using prevalence data in African countries derived from the Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT), the distribution of trachoma continues to be focused in East and West Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and a few endemic countries in Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, 129.4 million people are estimated to live in areas that are confirmed to be trachoma endemic and 98 million are known to require access to the SAFE strategy. The maps and information presented in this work highlight the GAT as important open-access planning and advocacy tool for efforts to finalize trachoma mapping and assist national programmes in planning interventions.

Will the SAFE strategy be sufficient to eliminate trachoma by 2020? Puzzlements and possible solutions

Since the inception of (the Global Elimination of Blinding Trachoma) GET 2020 in 1997 and the implementation of the SAFE strategy a year later, much progress has been made toward lowering the prevalence of trachoma worldwide with elimination of the disease in some countries. However, high recurrence of trichiasis after surgery, difficulty in controlling the reemergence of infection after mass distribution of azithromycin in some communities, the incomplete understanding of environment in relation to the disease, and the difficulty in establishing the prevalence of the disease in low endemic areas are some of the issues still facing completion of the GET 2020 goals. In this narrative review, literature was searched from 1998 to January 2013 in PubMed for original studies and reviews. Reasons for these ongoing problems are discussed, and several suggestions are made as avenues for exploration in relation to improving the SAFE strategy with emphasis on improving surgical quality and management of the mass treatment with antibiotics. In addition, more research needs to be done to better understand the approach to improve sanitation, hygiene, and environment. The main conclusion of this review is that scale-up is needed for all SAFE components, and more research should be generated from communities outside of Africa and Asia.

Using a nonparametric multilevel latent Markov model to evaluate diagnostics for trachoma

In disease control or elimination programs, diagnostics are essential for assessing the impact of interventions, refining treatment strategies, and minimizing the waste of scarce resources. Although high-performance tests are desirable, increased accuracy is frequently accompanied by a requirement for more elaborate infrastructure, which is often not feasible in the developing world. These challenges are pertinent to mapping, impact monitoring, and surveillance in trachoma elimination programs. To help inform rational design of diagnostics for trachoma elimination, we outline a nonparametric multilevel latent Markov modeling approach and apply it to 2 longitudinal cohort studies of trachoma-endemic communities in Tanzania (2000–2002) and The Gambia (2001–2002) to provide simultaneous inferences about the true population prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and disease and the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of 3 diagnostic tests for C. trachomatis infection. Estimates were obtained by using data collected before and after mass azithromycin administration. Such estimates are particularly important for trachoma because of the absence of a true “gold standard” diagnostic test for C. trachomatis. Estimated transition probabilities provide useful insights into key epidemiologic questions about the persistence of disease and the clearance of infection as well as the required frequency of surveillance in the postelimination setting.

Trachoma: an update on prevention, diagnosis, and treatment

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To review recent clinical and epidemiological studies regarding the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of trachoma.

RECENT FINDINGS

Newer studies propose novel diagnostic tests that appear sensitive for the detection of ocular chlamydial infection. For example, recent studies with ribosomal RNA-based nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) have demonstrated improved sensitivities compared to DNA-based NAATs; and the progression of scarring has now been characterized with confocal microscopy. Immunologic studies have further explored the etiology of clinical sequelae, suggesting that chronic inflammation can lead to progressive scarring even in the absence of Chlamydia. Mass oral azithromycin distributions remain a mainstay of treatment; studies have assessed the appropriate frequency and duration of treatment programs. Current studies have also explored ancillary effects of azithromycin distribution on mortality and bacterial infections.

SUMMARY

Trachoma programs have had remarkable success at reducing chlamydial infection and clinical signs of trachoma. Recent work suggests improved methods to monitor infection and scarring, and better ways to distribute treatment. Whereas studies continue to demonstrate reduction in infection in hyperendemic areas, more work is necessary to achieve elimination of this blinding disease.

Comparison of the Abbott m2000 RealTime CT assay and the Cepheid GeneXpert CT/NG assay to the Roche Amplicor CT assay for detection of Chlamydia trachomatis in ocular samples from Tanzania

The GeneXpert CT/NG assay (GeneXpert) and the Abbott m2000 RealTime CT (m2000) assay were compared to Amplicor for detecting ocular Chlamydia trachomatis. Discordant specimens were tested by the Aptima CT assay. The m2000 assay sensitivity was 100% (95% confidence interval [CI], 90% to 100%), and specificity was 98.46% (95% CI, 95.2% to 99.2%); GeneXpert sensitivity was 100% (95% CI, 90% to 100%), and specificity was 100% (95% CI, 98.1% to 100%). The m2000 and GeneXpert assays appear to perform as well as the Amplicor assay.

CT694 and pgp3 as serological tools for monitoring trachoma programs

Background

Defining endpoints for trachoma programs can be a challenge as clinical signs of infection may persist in the absence of detectable bacteria. Antibody-based tests may provide an alternative testing strategy for surveillance during terminal phases of the program. Antibody-based assays, in particular ELISAs, have been shown to be useful to document C. trachomatis genital infections, but have not been explored extensively for ocular C. trachomatis infections.

Methodology/Principal Findings

An antibody-based multiplex assay was used to test two C. trachomatis antigens, pgp3 and CT694, for detection of trachoma antibodies in bloodspots from Tanzanian children (n = 160) collected after multiple rounds of mass azithromycin treatment. Using samples from C. trachomatis-positive (by PCR) children from Tanzania (n = 11) and control sera from a non-endemic group of U.S. children (n = 122), IgG responses to both pgp3 and CT694 were determined to be 91% sensitive and 98% specific. Antibody responses of Tanzanian children were analyzed with regard to clinical trachoma, PCR positivity, and age. In general, children with more intense ocular pathology (TF/TI = 2 or most severe) had a higher median antibody response to pgp3 (p = 0.0041) and CT694 (p = 0.0282) than those with normal exams (TF/TI = 0). However, 44% of children with no ocular pathology tested positive for antibody, suggesting prior infection. The median titer of antibody responses for children less than three years of age was significantly lower than those of older children. (p<0.0001 for both antigens).

Conclusions/Significance

The antibody-based multiplex assay is a sensitive and specific additional tool for evaluating trachoma transmission. The assay can also be expanded to include antigens representing different diseases, allowing for a robust assay for monitoring across NTD programs.

Trachoma is an ocular disease caused by repeated infections with the bacteria Chlamydia trachomatis that is observed mostly in children and women. Scarring after repeated infections causes eyelashes to turn under the lid, possibly leading to corneal opacity and blindness. Efforts have increased by multiple organizations to meet the World Health Organization's goal of eliminating trachoma by 2020. As mass drug administration is carried out, it can be difficult to assess whether transmission has lessened enough to stop treatment without resurgence of disease. In this low prevalence setting, sensitive and specific surveillance tools are important. Currently, clinical diagnosis is carried out by examination of the inside of the eyelid for follicles and inflammation, and infection is best assessed using PCR analysis with commercial kits. These test results do not always align, indicating a need for additional tools for surveillance. Using the multiplex assay platform, we compared antibody responses to two chlamydial antigens with eye exams and PCR results of 160 Tanzanian children participating in a mass treatment program. Antibody responses were shown to be a good indicator of infection and disease status and antibody tests may be useful as surveillance tools.

Community risk factors for ocular Chlamydia infection in Niger: pre-treatment results from a cluster-randomized trachoma trial

BACKGROUND

Trachoma control programs utilize mass azithromycin distributions to treat ocular Chlamydia trachomatis as part of an effort to eliminate this disease world-wide. But it remains unclear what the community-level risk factors are for infection.

METHODS

This cluster-randomized, controlled trial entered 48 randomly selected communities in a 2×2 factorial design evaluating the effect of different treatment frequencies and treatment coverage levels. A pretreatment census and examination established the prevalence of risk factors for clinical trachoma and ocular chlamydia infection including years of education of household head, distance to primary water source, presence of household latrine, and facial cleanliness (ocular discharge, nasal discharge, and presence of facial flies). Univariate and multivariate associations were tested using linear regression and Bayes model averaging.

FINDINGS

There were a total of 24,536 participants (4,484 children aged 0-5 years) in 6,235 households in the study. Before treatment in May to July 2010, the community-level prevalence of active trachoma (TF or TI utilizing the World Health Organization [WHO] grading system) was 26.0% (95% CI: 21.9% to 30.0%) and the mean community-level prevalence of chlamydia infection by Amplicor PCR was 20.7% (95% CI: 16.5% to 24.9%) in children aged 0-5 years. Univariate analysis showed that nasal discharge (0.29, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.54; P = 0.03), presence of flies on the face (0.40, 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.64; P = 0.001), and years of formal education completed by the head of household (0.07, 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.13; P = 0.03) were independent risk factors for chlamydia infection. In multivariate analysis, facial flies (0.26, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.49; P = 0.03) and years of formal education completed by the head of household (0.06, 95% CI: 0.008 to 0.11; P = 0.02) were associated risk factors for ocular chlamydial infection.

INTERPRETATION

We have found that the presence of facial flies and years of education of the head of the household are risk factors for chlamydia infection when the analysis is done at the community level.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00792922.

Diagnostic characteristics of tests for ocular Chlamydia after mass azithromycin distributions

PURPOSE

Although trachoma control programs frequently use the World Health Organization (WHO) simplified grading system for trachoma to monitor the clinical response after repeated mass azithromycin treatments, the programmatic relevance of this evaluation after multiple rounds of antibiotic treatments is unclear.

METHODS

Three rounds of annual mass azithromycin were distributed to 12 villages in Ethiopia. Twelve months after the third treatment, children were assessed for follicular trachomatous inflammation (TF) and intense trachomatous inflammation (TI) using the WHO simplified grading system and for ocular chlamydial infection using DNA-based and RNA-based tests. Test characteristics for predicting chlamydial infection were computed assuming a chlamydial RNA-based gold standard. As a secondary analysis, test characteristics were also assessed using a latent class analysis.

RESULTS

The prevalence of RNA evidence of ocular chlamydia was 7.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7-17.4). A DNA-based test and TF had sensitivities of 61.0% (95% CI, 47.1-73.3) and 65.9% (95% CI, 41.6-83.9), specificities of 100% (95% CI, 99.3-100) and 67.5% (95% CI, 61.0-73.5), and positive predictive values of 100% (95% CI, 86.3-100) and 13.4% (95% CI, 5.5-29.3) compared with an RNA-based gold standard. The latent class analysis confirmed that the RNA-based test was a reasonable choice for a gold standard, with a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI, 67.1-100) and specificity of 99.6% (95% CI, 98.1-100).

CONCLUSIONS

Basing treatment decisions after mass azithromycin distributions on the WHO simplified grading system will maximize the treatment of infected persons compared with a DNA-based test but will also result in more uninfected persons being treated. The RNA-based test was considerably more sensitive, and almost equivalently specific, compared with a DNA-based test. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00322972.).