Evaluating hybrid controls methodology in early-phase oncology trials: A simulation study based on the MORPHEUS-UC trial

Phase Ib/II oncology trials, despite their small sample sizes, aim to provide information for optimal internal company decision-making concerning novel drug development. Hybrid controls (a combination of the current control arm and controls from one or more sources of historical trial data [HTD]) can be used to increase statistical precision. Here we assess combining two sources of Roche HTD to construct a hybrid control in targeted therapy for decision-making via an extensive simulation study. Our simulations are based on the real data of one of the experimental arms and the control arm of the MORPHEUS-UC Phase Ib/II study and two Roche HTD for atezolizumab monotherapy. We consider potential complications such as model misspecification, unmeasured confounding, different sample sizes of current treatment groups, and heterogeneity among the three trials. We evaluate two frequentist methods (with both Cox and Weibull accelerated failure time [AFT] models) and three different commensurate priors in Bayesian dynamic borrowing (with a Weibull AFT model), and modifications within each of those, when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes and measures of effect such as marginal hazard ratios. We assess the performance of these methods in different settings and the potential of generalizations to supplement decisions in early-phase oncology trials. The results show that the proposed joint frequentist methods and noninformative priors within Bayesian dynamic borrowing with no adjustment on covariates are preferred, especially when treatment effects across the three trials are heterogeneous. For generalization of hybrid control methods in such settings, we recommend more simulation studies.

Maternal immunisation against Group B Streptococcus: A global analysis of health impact and cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Group B Streptococcus (GBS) can cause invasive disease (iGBS) in young infants, typically presenting as sepsis or meningitis, and is also associated with stillbirth and preterm birth. GBS vaccines are under development, but their potential health impact and cost-effectiveness have not been assessed globally.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assessed the health impact and value (using net monetary benefit (NMB), which measures both health and economic effects of vaccination into monetary units) of GBS maternal vaccination in an annual cohort of 140 million pregnant women across 183 countries in 2020. Our analysis uses a decision tree model, incorporating risks of GBS-related health outcomes from an existing Bayesian disease burden model. We extrapolated country-specific GBS-related healthcare costs using data from a previous systematic review and calculated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost due to infant mortality and long-term disability. We assumed 80% vaccine efficacy against iGBS and stillbirth, following the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, and coverage based on the proportion of pregnant women receiving at least 4 antenatal visits. One dose was assumed to cost $50 in high-income countries, $15 in upper-middle income countries, and $3.50 in low-/lower-middle-income countries. We estimated NMB using alternative normative assumptions that may be adopted by policymakers. Vaccinating pregnant women could avert 127,000 (95% uncertainty range 63,300 to 248,000) early-onset and 87,300 (38,100 to 209,000) late-onset infant iGBS cases, 31,100 deaths (14,400 to 66,400), 17,900 (6,380 to 49,900) cases of moderate and severe neurodevelopmental impairment, and 23,000 (10,000 to 56,400) stillbirths. A vaccine effective against GBS-associated prematurity might also avert 185,000 (13,500 to 407,000) preterm births. Globally, a 1-dose vaccine programme could cost $1.7 billion but save $385 million in healthcare costs. Estimated global NMB ranged from $1.1 billion ($-0.2 to 3.8 billion) under the least favourable normative assumptions to $17 billion ($9.1 to 31 billion) under the most favourable normative assumptions. The main limitation of our analysis was the scarcity of data to inform some of the model parameters such as those governing health-related quality of life and long-term costs from disability, and how these parameters may vary across country contexts.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that maternal GBS vaccination could have a large impact on infant morbidity and mortality. Globally, a GBS maternal vaccine at reasonable prices is likely to be a cost-effective intervention.

Group B streptococcus infection during pregnancy and infancy: estimates of regional and global burden

BACKGROUND

Group B streptococcus (GBS) colonisation during pregnancy can lead to invasive GBS disease (iGBS) in infants, including meningitis or sepsis, with a high mortality risk. Other outcomes include stillbirths, maternal infections, and prematurity. There are data gaps, notably regarding neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI), especially after iGBS sepsis, which have limited previous global estimates. In this study, we aimed to address this gap using newly available multicountry datasets.

METHODS

We collated and meta-analysed summary data, primarily identified in a series of systematic reviews published in 2017 but also from recent studies on NDI and stillbirths, using Bayesian hierarchical models, and estimated the burden for 183 countries in 2020 regarding: maternal GBS colonisation, iGBS cases and deaths in infants younger than 3 months, children surviving iGBS affected by NDI, and maternal iGBS cases. We analysed the proportion of stillbirths with GBS and applied this to the UN-estimated stillbirth risk per country. Excess preterm births associated with maternal GBS colonisation were calculated using meta-analysis and national preterm birth rates.

FINDINGS

Data from the seven systematic reviews, published in 2017, that informed the previous burden estimation (a total of 515 data points) were combined with new data (17 data points) from large multicountry studies on neurodevelopmental impairment (two studies) and stillbirths (one study). A posterior median of 19·7 million (95% posterior interval 17·9-21·9) pregnant women were estimated to have rectovaginal colonisation with GBS in 2020. 231 800 (114 100-455 000) early-onset and 162 200 (70 200-394 400) late-onset infant iGBS cases were estimated to have occurred. In an analysis assuming a higher case fatality rate in the absence of a skilled birth attendant, 91 900 (44 800-187 800) iGBS infant deaths were estimated; in an analysis without this assumption, 58 300 (26 500-125 800) infant deaths from iGBS were estimated. 37 100 children who recovered from iGBS (14 600-96 200) were predicted to develop moderate or severe NDI. 40 500 (21 500-66 200) maternal iGBS cases and 46 200 (20 300-111 300) GBS stillbirths were predicted in 2020. GBS colonisation was also estimated to be potentially associated with considerable numbers of preterm births.

INTERPRETATION

Our analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of the pregnancy-related GBS burden. The Bayesian approach enabled coherent propagation of uncertainty, which is considerable, notably regarding GBS-associated preterm births. Our findings on both the acute and long-term consequences of iGBS have public health implications for understanding the value of investment in maternal GBS immunisation and other preventive strategies.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quantifying long-term health and economic outcomes for survivors of group B Streptococcus invasive disease in infancy: protocol of a multi-country study in Argentina, India, Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa

Sepsis and meningitis due to invasive group B Streptococcus (iGBS) disease during early infancy is a leading cause of child mortality. Recent systematic estimates of the worldwide burden of GBS suggested that there are 319,000 cases of infant iGBS disease each year, and an estimated 147,000 stillbirths and young-infant deaths, with the highest burden occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa.  The following priority data gaps were highlighted: (1) long-term outcome data after infant iGBS, including mild disability, to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and (2) economic burden for iGBS survivors and their families. Geographic data gaps were also noted with few studies from low- and middle- income countries (LMIC), where the GBS burden is estimated to be the highest. In this paper we present the protocol for a multi-country matched cohort study designed to estimate the risk of long-term neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI), socioemotional behaviors, and economic outcomes for children who survive invasive GBS disease in Argentina, India, Kenya, Mozambique, and South Africa. Children will be identified from health demographic surveillance systems, hospital records, and among participants of previous epidemiological studies. The children will be aged between 18 months to 17 years. A tablet-based custom-designed application will be used to capture data from direct assessment of the child and interviews with the main caregiver. In addition, a parallel sub-study will prospectively measure the acute costs of hospitalization due to neonatal sepsis or meningitis, irrespective of underlying etiology. In summary, these data are necessary to characterize the consequences of iGBS disease and enable the advancement of effective strategies for survivors to reach their developmental and economic potential. In particular, our study will inform the development of a full public health value proposition on maternal GBS immunization that is being coordinated by the World Health Organization.

Estimation of country-level incidence of early-onset invasive Group B Streptococcus disease in infants using Bayesian methods

Neonatal invasive disease caused by Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is responsible for much acute mortality and long-term morbidity. To guide development of better prevention strategies, including maternal vaccines that protect neonates against GBS, it is necessary to estimate the burden of this condition globally and in different regions. Here, we present a Bayesian model that estimates country-specific invasive GBS (iGBS) disease incidence in children aged 0 to 6 days. The model combines different types of epidemiological data, each of which has its own limitations: GBS colonization prevalence in pregnant women, risk of iGBS disease in children born to GBS-colonized mothers and direct estimates of iGBS disease incidence where available. In our analysis, we present country-specific maternal GBS colonization prevalence after adjustment for GBS detection assay used in epidemiological studies. We then integrate these results with other epidemiological data and estimate country-level incidence of iGBS disease including in countries with no studies that directly estimate incidence. We are able to simultaneously estimate two key epidemiological quantities: the country-specific incidence of early-onset iGBS disease, and the risk of iGBS disease in babies born to GBS-colonized women. Overall, we believe our method will contribute to a more comprehensive quantification of the global burden of this disease, inform cost-effectiveness assessments of potential maternal GBS vaccines and identify key areas where data are necessary.

Invasive disease caused by Group B Streptococcus (GBS) in young infants continues to be a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. However, data on the incidence of this infection during the first week of life are only available for a small number of countries, which has complicated the quantification of the burden of this disease globally. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework to estimate the incidence of invasive GBS infection that combines data from multiple types of epidemiological studies, with adjustment for relevant factors such as diagnostic methods used in the studies. We present estimates from a series of models, and our results highlight the potential weaknesses of different types of studies and the importance to consider the entire evidence when estimating global burden of invasive neonatal infections. We believe this model is a step toward better quantification of the number of cases in different regions.

Latent Class Analysis: Insights about design and analysis of schistosomiasis diagnostic studies

Various global health initiatives are currently advocating the elimination of schistosomiasis within the next decade. Schistosomiasis is a highly debilitating tropical infectious disease with severe burden of morbidity and thus operational research accurately evaluating diagnostics that quantify the epidemic status for guiding effective strategies is essential. Latent class models (LCMs) have been generally considered in epidemiology and in particular in recent schistosomiasis diagnostic studies as a flexible tool for evaluating diagnostics because assessing the true infection status (via a gold standard) is not possible. However, within the biostatistics literature, classical LCM have already been criticised for real-life problems under violation of the conditional independence (CI) assumption and when applied to a small number of diagnostics (i.e. most often 3-5 diagnostic tests). Solutions of relaxing the CI assumption and accounting for zero-inflation, as well as collecting partial gold standard information, have been proposed, offering the potential for more robust model estimates. In the current article, we examined such approaches in the context of schistosomiasis via analysis of two real datasets and extensive simulation studies. Our main conclusions highlighted poor model fit in low prevalence settings and the necessity of collecting partial gold standard information in such settings in order to improve the accuracy and reduce bias of sensitivity and specificity estimates.

Accurate schistosomiasis diagnosis is essential to assess the impact of large scale and repeated mass drug administration to control or even eliminate this disease. However, in schistosomiasis diagnostic studies, several inherent study design issues pose a real challenge for the currently available statistical tools used for diagnostic modelling and associated data analysis and conclusions. More specifically, those study design issues are: 1) the inclusion of small number of diagnostic tests (i.e. most often five), 2) non formal consensus about a schistosomiasis gold standard, 3) the contemporary use of relatively small sample sizes in relevant studies due to lack of research funding, 4) the differing levels of prevalence of the studied disease even within the same area of one endemic country and 5) other real world factors such as: the lack of appropriate equipment, the variability of certain methods due to biological phenomena and training of technicians across the endemic countries because of scarce financial resources contributing to the existing lack of a schistosomiasis gold standard. The current study aims to caution practitioners from blindly applying statistical models with small number of diagnostic tests and sample sizes, proposing design guidelines of future schistosomiasis diagnostic accuracy studies with recommendations for further research. While our study is centred around the diagnosis of schistosomiasis, we feel that the recommendations can be adapted to other major tropical infectious diseases as well.

Stillbirths and neonatal deaths among 18 942 women with postpartum hemorrhage: Analysis of perinatal outcomes in the WOMAN trial

OBJECTIVE

To describe the rates and risk factors for stillbirth and pre-discharge neonatal mortality (PDNM), and impact on quality of life (QoL) among women with postpartum hemorrhage (PPH).

METHODS

A secondary analysis was conducted of the WOMAN trial, which evaluated the use of tranexamic acid for PPH and collected infant outcome data to assess drug safety. The analysis was restricted to singletons (n=18 942). Overall and country-level rates of stillbirth and PDNM were calculated. Multilevel logistic regression models examined the association of stillbirth and PDNM with selected risks, and the association of mother's QoL at discharge after stillbirth or PDNM.

RESULTS

For women with PPH, the rate of stillbirths was 104.42 per 1000 births (n=1978) and the rate of PDNM was 15.56 per 1000 live births (n=264). Cesarean delivery, increasing blood loss, maternal complications, and maternal death were strongly associated with these adverse outcomes. Women with stillbirth and PDNM were significantly more likely to report poorer QoL.

CONCLUSION

Women with PPH experience an extremely high rate of stillbirth and slightly elevated PDNM, which is associated with markers of the severity of their condition and impacts on their QoL.

Quantifying long-term health and economic outcomes for survivors of group B Streptococcus invasive disease in infancy: protocol of a multi-country study in Argentina, India, Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa

Sepsis and meningitis due to invasive group B Streptococcus (iGBS) disease during early infancy is a leading cause of child mortality. Recent systematic estimates of the worldwide burden of GBS suggested that there are 319,000 cases of infant iGBS disease each year, and an estimated 147,000 stillbirths and young-infant deaths, with the highest burden occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa.  The following priority data gaps were highlighted: (1) long-term outcome data after infant iGBS, including mild disability, to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and (2) economic burden for iGBS survivors and their families. Geographic data gaps were also noted with few studies from low- and middle- income countries (LMIC), where the GBS burden is estimated to be the highest. In this paper we present the protocol for a multi-country matched cohort study designed to estimate the risk of long-term neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI), socioemotional behaviors, and economic outcomes for children who survive invasive GBS disease in Argentina, India, Kenya, Mozambique, and South Africa. Children will be identified from health demographic surveillance systems, hospital records, and among participants of previous epidemiological studies. The children will be aged between 18 months to 17 years. A tablet-based custom-designed application will be used to capture data from direct assessment of the child and interviews with the main caregiver. In addition, a parallel sub-study will prospectively measure the acute costs of hospitalization due to neonatal sepsis or meningitis, irrespective of underlying etiology. In summary, these data are necessary to characterize the consequences of iGBS disease and enable the advancement of effective strategies for survivors to reach their developmental and economic potential. In particular, our study will inform the development of a full public health value proposition on maternal GBS immunization that is being coordinated by the World Health Organization.

The impact of physical activity on healthy ageing trajectories: evidence from eight cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Research has suggested the positive impact of physical activity on health and wellbeing in older age, yet few studies have investigated the associations between physical activity and heterogeneous trajectories of healthy ageing. We aimed to identify how physical activity can influence healthy ageing trajectories using a harmonised dataset of eight ageing cohorts across the world.

METHODS

Based on a harmonised dataset of eight ageing cohorts in Australia, USA, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, comprising 130,521 older adults (Mage = 62.81, SDage = 10.06) followed-up up to 10 years (Mfollow-up = 5.47, SDfollow-up = 3.22), we employed growth mixture modelling to identify latent classes of people with different trajectories of healthy ageing scores, which incorporated 41 items of health and functioning. Multinomial logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the associations between physical activity and different types of trajectories adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and other lifestyle behaviours.

RESULTS

Three latent classes of healthy ageing trajectories were identified: two with stable trajectories with high (71.4%) or low (25.2%) starting points and one with a high starting point but a fast decline over time (3.4%). Engagement in any level of physical activity was associated with decreased odds of being in the low stable (OR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.19) and fast decline trajectories groups (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.50) compared to the high stable trajectory group. These results were replicated with alternative physical activity operationalisations, as well as in sensitivity analyses using reduced samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a positive impact of physical activity on healthy ageing, attenuating declines in health and functioning. Physical activity promotion should be a key focus of healthy ageing policies to prevent disability and fast deterioration in health.

Protection against mycobacterial infection: A case-control study of mycobacterial immune responses in pairs of Gambian children with discordant infection status despite matched TB exposure

BACKGROUND

Children are particularly susceptible to tuberculosis. However, most children exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis are able to control the pathogen without evidence of infection. Correlates of human protective immunity against tuberculosis infection are lacking, and their identification would aid vaccine design.

METHODS

We recruited pairs of asymptomatic children with discordant tuberculin skin test status but the same sleeping proximity to the same adult with sputum smear-positive tuberculosis in a matched case-control study in The Gambia. Participants were classified as either Highly TB-Exposed Uninfected or Highly TB-Exposed Infected children. Serial luminescence measurements using an in vitro functional auto-luminescent Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) whole blood assay quantified the dynamics of host control of mycobacterial growth. Assay supernatants were analysed with a multiplex cytokine assay to measure associated inflammatory responses.

FINDINGS

29 pairs of matched Highly TB-Exposed Uninfected and Highly TB-Exposed Infected children aged 5 to 15 years old were enroled. Samples from Highly TB-Exposed Uninfected children had higher levels of mycobacterial luminescence at 96 hours than Highly TB-Exposed Infected children. Highly TB-Exposed Uninfected children also produced less BCG-specific interferon-γ than Highly TB-Exposed Infected children at 24 hours and at 96 hours.

INTERPRETATION

Highly TB-Exposed Uninfected children showed less control of mycobacterial growth compared to Highly TB-Exposed Infected children in a functional assay, whilst cytokine responses mirrored infection status.

FUNDING

Clinical Research Training Fellowship funded under UK Medical Research Council/Department for International Development Concordat agreement and part of EDCTP2 programme supported by European Union (MR/K023446/1). Also MRC Program Grants (MR/K007602/1, MR/K011944/1, MC_UP_A900/1122).

Assessing expanded community wide treatment for schistosomiasis: Baseline infection status and self-reported risk factors in three communities from the Greater Accra region, Ghana

BACKGROUND

This paper reports on the baseline prevalence and associated risk factor findings of a pilot, longitudinal study exploring community-wide treatment of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis, using albendazole plus praziquantel in the Greater Accra region of Ghana.

METHOD

From three communities, at least, 658 individuals were enrolled into the study via random household selection. Prevalence and intensity of schistosomiasis and STH infection were determined from stool and urine samples with a questionnaire being administered in order to explore other morbidities and risk factors. Factor analysis of household demographic variables was undertaken to generate a socioeconomic score; this was then further categorised into tertiles. Proportional-odds cumulative logit generalised estimating equation (GEE) models were used to investigate categorical ordinal intensity of infection associations with morbidity. Separately, logistic GEE models were used to investigate risk factor associations with infection prevalence.

RESULTS

Both Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni were prevalent in the three communities, with the prevalence of S. haematobium ranging from 3.3% (24/679; 95% CI = 1.9-4.7) to 19% (114/632; 95% CI = 15.8-22.2) and S. mansoni ranging from 30% (202/679; 95% CI = 26.5-33.5) to 78.3% (409/536; 95% CI = 74.7-81.9). The total prevalence of STH across all three sites was negligible at 1.3% (24/1847; 95% CI = 0.8-1.9) comprising mainly hookworm (10/1847). Multivariable statistical models indicated males to be 2.3 (95% CI = 1.7-3.3) times more likely to have a high intensity S. mansoni infection and 1.5 (95% CI = 1.1-2) times more likely to have a high intensity of S. haematobium infection compared to females. There was no significant difference in the likelihood of infection with S. mansoni between adults and school age children (SAC), however S. haematobium infections were found to be 2.5 (95% CI = 1.8-3.5) times more likely to occur in school age children than in adults. Multivariable statistical models (adjusted for age and sex) indicated an association between schistosomiasis and a number of self-reported morbidity indicators (notably diarrhoea and blood in stool and urine). Low socio-economic status was also associated with SCH infection (OR: 2; 95% CI = 1.3-3.2).

CONCLUSION

The communities targeted by this study showed a range of Schistosoma prevalence's of infection, from hypo-endemic through to meso-endemic and hyper-endemic. The prevalence of SCH across the different age groups in the study locations highlights the large number of individuals currently being left out of the standard morbidity control method of annual treatment of the SAC.

Healthy ageing and the prediction of mortality and incidence dependence in low- and middle- income countries: a 10/66 population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

In the absence of a consensus on definition and measurement of healthy ageing, we created a healthy ageing index tallying with the functional ability framework provided by the World Health Organization. To create this index, we employed items of functional ability and intrinsic capacity. The current study aims to establish the predictive validity and discrimination properties of this healthy ageing index in settings in Latin American, part of the 10/66 cohort.

METHODS

Population-based cohort studies including 12,865 people ≥65 years old in catchment areas of Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. We employed latent variable modelling to estimate the healthy ageing scores of each participant. We grouped participants according to the quintiles of the healthy ageing score distribution. Cox's proportional hazard models for mortality and sub-hazard (competing risks) models for incident dependence (i.e. needing care) were calculated per area after a median of 3.9 years and 3.7 years, respectively. Results were pooled together via fixed-effects meta-analysis. Our findings were compared with those obtained from self-rated health.

RESULTS

Participants with lowest levels, compared to participants with highest level of healthy ageing, had increased risk of mortality and incident dependence, even after adjusting for sociodemographic and health conditions (HR: 3.25, 95%CI: 2.63-4.02; sub-HR: 5.21, 95%CI: 4.02-6.75). Healthy ageing scores compared to self-rated health had higher population attributable fractions (PAFs) for mortality (43.6% vs 19.3%) and incident dependence (58.6% vs 17.0%), and better discriminative power (Harrell's c-statistic: mortality 0.74 vs 0.72; incident dependence 0.76 vs 0.70).

CONCLUSION

These results provide evidence that our healthy ageing index could be a valuable tool for prevention strategies as it demonstrated predictive and discriminative properties. Further research in other cultural settings will assist moving from a theoretical conceptualisation of healthy ageing to a more practical one.

Development of a healthy ageing index in Latin American countries - a 10/66 dementia research group population-based study

BACKGROUND

Our population is ageing and in 2050 more than one out of five people will be 60 years or older; 80% of whom will be living in a low-and-middle income country. Living longer does not entail living healthier; however, there is not a widely accepted measure of healthy ageing hampering policy and research. The World Health Organization defines healthy ageing as the process of developing and maintaining functional ability that will enable well-being in older age. We aimed to create a healthy ageing index (HAI) in a subset of six low-and-middle income countries, part of the 10/66 study, by using items of functional ability and intrinsic capacity.

METHODS

The study sample included residents 65-years old and over (n = 12,865) from catchment area sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Peru, Venezuela, Mexico and Puerto Rico. Items were collected by interviewing participants or key informants between 2003 and 2010. Two-stage factor analysis was employed and we compared one-factor, second-order and bifactor models. The psychometric properties of the index, including reliability, replicability, unidimensionality and concurrent convergent validity as well as measurement invariance per ethnic group and gender were further examined in the best fit model.

RESULTS

The bifactor model displayed superior model fit statistics supporting that a general factor underlies the various items but other subdomain factors are also needed. The HAI indicated excellent reliability (ω = 0.96, ωΗ = 0.84), replicability (H = 0.96), some support for unidimensionality (Explained Common Variance = 0.65) and some concurrent convergent validity with self-rated health. Scalar measurement invariance per ethnic group and gender was supported.

CONCLUSIONS

A HAI with excellent psychometric properties was created by using items of functional ability and intrinsic capacity in a subset of six low-and-middle income countries. Further research is needed to explore sub-population differences and to validate this index to other cultural settings.

THE IMPACT OF LIFESTYLE BEHAVIORS ON HEALTHY AGING TRAJECTORIES: THE ATHLOS PROJECT

The number of people above 60 years old will double by 2050. There is a considerate variability in the health status of older people. The identification of the different trajectories that people follow as they grow older constitutes one of the aims of the ATHLOS project. In the current study, we created a metric of health in the four available waves (2001, 2003, 2012, 2015) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) by employing Bayesian multilevel Item Response Theory. Growth mixture modelling indicated that older Mexicans (n=14,143) age by following four distinct pathways (i.e. high-stable, moderate-stable, low-stable, decliners). Adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviours (i.e. physical activity, non-smoking, limited alcohol consumption) was associated with better health trajectories. Preliminary analyses in the ATHLOS harmonised dataset also suggest that older people age by following four distinct pathways. The impact of lifestyle behaviours within the harmonised dataset will be investigated and also presented.

Healthy ageing trajectories and lifestyle behaviour: the Mexican Health and Aging Study

Projections show that the number of people above 60 years old will triple by 2050 in Mexico. Nevertheless, ageing is characterised by great variability in the health status. In this study, we aimed to identify trajectories of health and their associations with lifestyle factors in a national representative cohort study of older Mexicans. We used secondary data of 14,143 adults from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS). A metric of health, based on the conceptual framework of functional ability, was mapped onto four waves (2001, 2003, 2012, 2015) and created by applying Bayesian multilevel Item Response Theory (IRT). Conditional Growth Mixture Modelling (GMM) was used to identify latent classes of individuals with similar trajectories and examine the impact of physical activity, smoking and alcohol on those. Conditional on sociodemographic and lifestyle behaviour four latent classes were suggested: high-stable, moderate-stable, low-stable and decliners. Participants who did not engage in physical activity, were current or previous smokers and did not consume alcohol at baseline were more likely to be in the trajectory with the highest deterioration (i.e. decliners). This study confirms ageing heterogeneity and the positive influence of a healthy lifestyle. These results provide the ground for new policies.

Associations of Lifestyle Behaviour and Healthy Ageing in Five Latin American and the Caribbean Countries-A 10/66 Population-Based Cohort Study

Latin American and the Caribbean countries exhibit high life expectancy and projections show that they will experience the fastest growth of older people in the following years. As people live longer, it is important to maximise the opportunity to age healthily. We aimed to examine the associations of lifestyle behaviours with healthy ageing in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Peru, Mexico and Puerto Rico, part of the 10/66 study. Residents 65 years old and over (n = 10,900) were interviewed between 2003 and 2010. In the baseline survey, we measured four healthy behaviours: Physical activity, non-smoking, moderate drinking and fruits or vegetables consumption. Healthy ageing was conceptualised within the functional ability framework over a median of 4 years follow-up. Logistic models were calculated per country and then pooled together with fixed-effects meta-analysis. People engaging in physical activity and consuming fruits or vegetables had increased odds of healthy ageing in the follow-up (OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 2.20–3.03; OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.06–1.44, respectively). Compared with participants engaging in none or one healthy behaviour, the ORs of participants engaging in two, three or four healthy behaviours increased in a linear way (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.40–1.84; OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.94–2.69; OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.54–3.92, respectively). Our findings highlight the importance of awareness of a healthy lifestyle behaviour among older people.

Transrenal DNA-based diagnosis of Strongyloides stercoralis (Grassi, 1879) infection: Bayesian latent class modeling of test accuracy

For epidemiological work with soil transmitted helminths the recommended diagnostic approaches are to examine fecal samples for microscopic evidence of the parasite. In addition to several logistical and processing issues, traditional diagnostic approaches have been shown to lack the sensitivity required to reliably identify patients harboring low-level infections such as those associated with effective mass drug intervention programs. In this context, there is a need to rethink the approaches used for helminth diagnostics. Serological methods are now in use, however these tests are indirect and depend on individual immune responses, exposure patterns and the nature of the antigen. However, it has been demonstrated that cell-free DNA from pathogens and cancers can be readily detected in patient’s urine which can be collected in the field, filtered in situ and processed later for analysis. In the work presented here, we employ three diagnostic procedures—stool examination, serology (NIE-ELISA) and PCR-based amplification of parasite transrenal DNA from urine–to determine their relative utility in the diagnosis of S. stercoralis infections from 359 field samples from an endemic area of Argentina. Bayesian Latent Class analysis was used to assess the relative performance of the three diagnostic procedures. The results underscore the low sensitivity of stool examination and support the idea that the use of serology combined with parasite transrenal DNA detection may be a useful strategy for sensitive and specific detection of low-level strongyloidiasis.

As international bodies focus efforts on control of the world’s neglected tropical diseases, the critical importance of accurate and sensitive diagnosis becomes a key factor. The problem arises when the infection load in a community is reduced to a level where the standard diagnostic methodologies are insufficiently sensitive to detect the residual infection in the community. There is a need to develop improved diagnostic strategies for many parasitic diseases. One of the more difficult to diagnose helminth parasites is the nematode Strongyloides stercoralis. We have introduced a new approach that detects parasite-specific cell free DNA in urine as a sensitive measure of parasite presence. In the work presented here, we compare the performance of parasitological, serological and urine/DNA-based diagnosis of S. stercoralis infection. Using a Bayesian Latent Class Analysis approach, we provide evidence for the enhanced utility of using both urine and blood for the diagnosis of this parasite.

Associations of smoking and alcohol consumption with healthy ageing: a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

OBJECTIVES

The number of older people is growing across the world; however, quantitative synthesis of studies examining the impact of lifestyle factors on the ageing process is rare. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies to synthesise the associations of smoking and alcohol consumption with healthy ageing (HA).

METHODS

Major electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2017 (prospectively registered systematic reviews registration number CRD42016038130). Studies were assessed for methodological quality. Random-effect meta-analysis was performed to calculate pooled ORs and 95% CI.

RESULTS

In total, we identified 28 studies (n=184 543); 27 studies reported results on smoking, 22 on alcohol consumption. 23 studies reported a significant positive association of never or former smoking with HA and 4 non-significant. 12 studies reported a significant positive association of alcohol consumption with HA, 9 no association and 1 negative. Meta-analysis revealed increased pooled OR of HA for never smokers compared with current smokers (2.36, 95% CI 2.03 to 2.75), never smokers compared with former smokers (1.32, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.41), former or never smokers compared with current smokers (1.72, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.47), never smokers compared with past or current smokers (1.29, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.43); drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.28, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.52), light drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.12, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.22), moderate drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.35, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.97) and high drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.44). There was considerable heterogeneity in the definition and measurement of HA and alcohol consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

There is consistent evidence from longitudinal studies that smoking is negatively associated with HA. The associations of alcohol consumption with HA are equivocal. Future research should focus on the implementation of a single metric of HA, on the use of consistent drinking assessment among studies and on a full-range of confounding adjustment. Our research also highlighted the limited research on ageing in low-and-middle-income countries.

Evaluating diagnostic indicators of urogenital Schistosoma haematobium infection in young women: A cross sectional study in rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Urine microscopy is the standard diagnostic method for urogenital S. haematobium infection. However, this may lead to under-diagnosis of urogenital schistosomiasis, as the disease may present itself with genital symptoms in the absence of ova in the urine. Currently there is no single reliable and affordable diagnostic method to diagnose the full spectrum of urogenital S. haematobium infection. In this study we explore the classic indicators in the diagnosis of urogenital S. haematobium infection, with focus on young women.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study of 1237 sexually active young women in rural South Africa, we assessed four diagnostic indicators of urogenital S. haematobium infection: microscopy of urine, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of cervicovaginal lavage (CVL), urogenital symptoms, and sandy patches detected clinically in combination with computerised image analysis of photocolposcopic images. We estimated the accuracy of these diagnostic indicators through the following analyses: 1) cross tabulation (assumed empirical gold standard) of the tests against the combined findings of sandy patches and/or computerized image analysis and 2) a latent class model of the four indicators without assuming any gold standard.

RESULTS

The empirical approach showed that urine microscopy had a sensitivity of 34.7% and specificity of 75.2% while the latent class analysis approach (LCA) suggested a sensitivity of 81.0% and specificity of 85.6%. The empirical approach and LCA showed that Schistosoma PCR in CVL had low sensitivity (14.1% and 52.4%, respectively) and high specificity (93.0% and 98.0, respectively). Using LCA, the presence of sandy patches showed a sensitivity of 81.6 and specificity of 42.4%. The empirical approach and LCA showed that urogenital symptoms had a high sensitivity (89.4% and 100.0%, respectively), whereas specificity was low (10.6% and 12.3%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

All the diagnostic indicators used in the study had limited accuracy. Using urine microscopy or Schistosoma PCR in CVL would only confirm a fraction of the sandy patches found by colposcopic examination.

Physical activity and healthy ageing: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Older people constitute a significant proportion of the total population and their number is projected to increase by more than half by 2030. This increasing probability of late survival comes with considerable individual, economic and social impact. Physical activity (PA) can influence the ageing process but the specific relationship with healthy ageing (HA) is unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies examining the associations of PA with HA. Studies were identified from a systematic search across major electronic databases from inception as January 2017. Random-effect meta-analysis was performed to calculate a pooled effect size (ES) and 95% CIs. Studies were assessed for methodological quality.

RESULTS

Overall, 23 studies were identified including 174,114 participants (30% men) with age ranges from 20 to 87 years old. There was considerable heterogeneity in the definition and measurement of HA and PA. Most of the identified studies reported a significant positive association of PA with HA, six reported a non-significant. Meta-analysis revealed that PA is positively associated with HA (ES: 1.39, 95% CI=1.23-1.57, n=17) even if adjusted for publication bias (ES: 1.27, 95% CI=1.11-1.45, n=20).

CONCLUSIONS

There is consistent evidence from longitudinal observational studies that PA is positively associated with HA, regardless of definition and measurement. Future research should focus on the implementation of a single metric of HA, on the use of objective measures for PA assessment and on a full-range of confounding adjustment. In addition, our research indicated the limited research on ageing in low-and-middle income countries.

Pathways from maternal depression to young adult offspring depression: an exploratory longitudinal mediation analysis

Maternal depression in the peri-natal period is associated with increased risk for young adult depression in offspring. This study explored mediation of these links via trajectories of child conduct and emotional problems (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire) from ages 4-16 years old in data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort (n = 13373). Through gender-specific structural equation models, a composite measure of exposure to early maternal depression (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale), predicted young adult depression at age 18 (Revised Clinical Interview Schedule - distal outcome). Mediational effects were then estimated by testing which parts of joint piecewise latent trajectory models for child/adolescent conduct and emotional problems were associated with both exposure and distal outcome. For girls, only conduct problems in early childhood were consistently indicated to mediate effects of early maternal depression on risk of young adulthood depression. Some evidence for a pathway via changing levels of childhood and adolescent emotional difficulties was also suggested. For boys, by contrast, the differing models gave less consistent findings providing some evidence for a small time-specific indirect effect via early childhood conduct problems. In addition to its practice implications the current methodological application offers considerable potential in exploratory longitudinal developmental mediation studies. © 2016 The Authors International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Psychometric Properties of the Parent-Infant Caregiving Touch Scale

Recent work in animals suggests that the extent of early tactile stimulation by parents of offspring is an important element in early caregiving. We evaluate the psychometric properties of a new parent-report measure designed to assess frequency of tactile stimulation across multiple caregiving domains in infancy. We describe the full item set of the Parent-Infant Caregiving Touch Scale (PICTS) and, using data from a UK longitudinal Child Health and Development Study, the response frequencies and factor structure and whether it was invariant over two time points in early development (5 and 9 weeks). When their infant was 9 weeks old, 838 mothers responded on the PICTS while a stratified subsample of 268 mothers completed PICTS at an earlier 5 week old assessment (229 responded on both occasions). Three PICTS factors were identified reflecting stroking, holding and affective communication. These were moderately to strongly correlated at each of the two time points of interest and were unrelated to, and therefore distinct from, a traditional measure of maternal sensitivity at 7-months. A wholly stable psychometry over 5 and 9-week assessments was not identified which suggests that behavior profiles differ slightly for younger and older infants. Tests of measurement invariance demonstrated that all three factors are characterized by full configural and metric invariance, as well as a moderate degree of evidence of scalar invariance for the stroking factor. We propose the PICTS as a valuable new measure of important aspects of caregiving in infancy.

Familiality and SNP heritability of age at onset and episodicity in major depressive disorder

BACKGROUND

Strategies to dissect phenotypic and genetic heterogeneity of major depressive disorder (MDD) have mainly relied on subphenotypes, such as age at onset (AAO) and recurrence/episodicity. Yet, evidence on whether these subphenotypes are familial or heritable is scarce. The aims of this study are to investigate the familiality of AAO and episode frequency in MDD and to assess the proportion of their variance explained by common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP heritability).

METHOD

For investigating familiality, we used 691 families with 2-5 full siblings with recurrent MDD from the DeNt study. We fitted (square root) AAO and episode count in a linear and a negative binomial mixed model, respectively, with family as random effect and adjusting for sex, age and center. The strength of familiality was assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). For estimating SNP heritabilities, we used 3468 unrelated MDD cases from the RADIANT and GSK Munich studies. After similarly adjusting for covariates, derived residuals were used with the GREML method in GCTA (genome-wide complex trait analysis) software.

RESULTS

Significant familial clustering was found for both AAO (ICC = 0.28) and episodicity (ICC = 0.07). We calculated from respective ICC estimates the maximal additive heritability of AAO (0.56) and episodicity (0.15). SNP heritability of AAO was 0.17 (p = 0.04); analysis was underpowered for calculating SNP heritability of episodicity.

CONCLUSIONS

AAO and episodicity aggregate in families to a moderate and small degree, respectively. AAO is under stronger additive genetic control than episodicity. Larger samples are needed to calculate the SNP heritability of episodicity. The described statistical framework could be useful in future analyses.

A latent Markov modelling approach to the evaluation of circulating cathodic antigen strips for schistosomiasis diagnosis pre- and post-praziquantel treatment in Uganda

Regular treatment with praziquantel (PZQ) is the strategy for human schistosomiasis control aiming to prevent morbidity in later life. With the recent resolution on schistosomiasis elimination by the 65th World Health Assembly, appropriate diagnostic tools to inform interventions are keys to their success. We present a discrete Markov chains modelling framework that deals with the longitudinal study design and the measurement error in the diagnostic methods under study. A longitudinal detailed dataset from Uganda, in which one or two doses of PZQ treatment were provided, was analyzed through Latent Markov Models (LMMs). The aim was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of Circulating Cathodic Antigen (CCA) and of double Kato-Katz (KK) faecal slides over three consecutive days for Schistosoma mansoni infection simultaneously by age group at baseline and at two follow-up times post treatment. Diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities and the true underlying infection prevalence over time as well as the probabilities of transitions between infected and uninfected states are provided. The estimated transition probability matrices provide parsimonious yet important insights into the re-infection and cure rates in the two age groups. We show that the CCA diagnostic performance remained constant after PZQ treatment and that this test was overall more sensitive but less specific than single-day double KK for the diagnosis of S. mansoni infection. The probability of clearing infection from baseline to 9 weeks was higher among those who received two PZQ doses compared to one PZQ dose for both age groups, with much higher re-infection rates among children compared to adolescents and adults. We recommend LMMs as a useful methodology for monitoring and evaluation and treatment decision research as well as CCA for mapping surveys of S. mansoni infection, although additional diagnostic tools should be incorporated in schistosomiasis elimination programs.

Schistosomiasis remains one of the most prevalent parasitic diseases in developing countries, with Schistosoma mansoni being the most widespread of the human-infecting schistosomes. For the routine surveillance of human S. mansoni infection more “field-applicable,” sensitive, and cost-effective diagnostics that replicate faecal samples over several consecutive days [the Kato-Katz (KK) method], are needed. We propose a statistical modelling framework in order to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the urine strip test for Circulating Cathodic Antigen (CCA) and single-day double KK measurements over three consecutive days for the diagnosis of S. mansoni infection in two different age groups from Uganda pre- and post- praziquantel (PZQ) treatment. We demonstrate that CCA is an appropriate tool for mapping surveys of S. mansoni infection. Our findings should allow for evaluation of the risk of potential misinterpretation with regards to diagnosis of S. mansoni infection through CCA or KK in this endemic setting pre- and post- PZQ treatment as the numbers and infection intensities are brought down, bridging existing important gaps in schistosomiasis diagnostics research. More generally, the proposed statistical analysis can reveal important biological insights from other diseases without gold standard diagnostic tools whenever longitudinal data are available.

The impact of single versus mixed Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni infections on morbidity profiles amongst school-children in Taveta, Kenya

Two schistosome species--Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni--with two very different pathological profiles (urogenital versus intestinal), are responsible for the majority of human schistosomiasis infections across sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study was to determine whether coinfections have an impact on species-specific morbidity measures when compared to single species infections. Children from two neighbouring schools in Taveta, Kenya were grouped by infection status, i.e. uninfected, single species infections or coinfected. Clinical examination of the liver and spleen by palpation was performed and urinary albumin levels were recorded at baseline and at 12 months after praziquantel administration. Additional ultrasonographic profiles of the children's liver, spleen and bladder were incorporated at follow-up. It was found that S. haematobium-associated urogenital morbidity was lower in the coinfected group relative to single S. haematobium infections, even when infection intensities were taken into account. We also observed an association between S. haematobium infection and liver (intestinal-associated) morbidity regardless of coinfections. The findings reported here suggest that further research should be performed on the impact of S. haematobium infections on liver morbidity as well as to determine the impact of mixed schistosome species infections on human morbidity outcomes across different endemic settings.

Using a nonparametric multilevel latent Markov model to evaluate diagnostics for trachoma

In disease control or elimination programs, diagnostics are essential for assessing the impact of interventions, refining treatment strategies, and minimizing the waste of scarce resources. Although high-performance tests are desirable, increased accuracy is frequently accompanied by a requirement for more elaborate infrastructure, which is often not feasible in the developing world. These challenges are pertinent to mapping, impact monitoring, and surveillance in trachoma elimination programs. To help inform rational design of diagnostics for trachoma elimination, we outline a nonparametric multilevel latent Markov modeling approach and apply it to 2 longitudinal cohort studies of trachoma-endemic communities in Tanzania (2000–2002) and The Gambia (2001–2002) to provide simultaneous inferences about the true population prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and disease and the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of 3 diagnostic tests for C. trachomatis infection. Estimates were obtained by using data collected before and after mass azithromycin administration. Such estimates are particularly important for trachoma because of the absence of a true “gold standard” diagnostic test for C. trachomatis. Estimated transition probabilities provide useful insights into key epidemiologic questions about the persistence of disease and the clearance of infection as well as the required frequency of surveillance in the postelimination setting.

Estimating age-specific cumulative incidence for the 2009 influenza pandemic: a meta-analysis of A(H1N1)pdm09 serological studies from 19 countries

Background

The global impact of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (H1N1pdm) is not well understood.

Objectives

We estimate overall and age‐specific prevalence of cross‐reactive antibodies to H1N1pdm virus and rates of H1N1pdm infection during the first year of the pandemic using data from published and unpublished H1N1pdm seroepidemiological studies.

Methods

Primary aggregate H1N1pdm serologic data from each study were stratified in standardized age groups and evaluated based on when sera were collected in relation to national or subnational peak H1N1pdm activity. Seropositivity was assessed using well‐described and standardized hemagglutination inhibition (HI titers ≥32 or ≥40) and microneutralization (MN ≥ 40) laboratory assays. The prevalence of cross‐reactive antibodies to the H1N1pdm virus was estimated for studies using sera collected prior to the start of the pandemic (between 2004 and April 2009); H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was estimated for studies in which collected both pre‐ and post‐pandemic sera; and H1N1pdm seropositivity was calculated from studies with post‐pandemic sera only (collected between December 2009–June 2010).

Results

Data from 27 published/unpublished studies from 19 countries/administrative regions – Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Reunion Island, Singapore, United Kingdom, United States, and Vietnam – were eligible for inclusion. The overall age‐standardized pre‐pandemic prevalence of cross‐reactive antibodies was 5% (95%CI 3–7%) and varied significantly by age with the highest rates among persons ≥65 years old (14% 95%CI 8–24%). Overall age‐standardized H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was 24% (95%CI 20–27%) and varied significantly by age with the highest in children 5–19 (47% 95%CI 39–55%) and 0–4 years old (36% 95%CI 30–43%).

Conclusions

Our results offer unique insight into the global impact of the H1N1 pandemic and highlight the need for standardization of seroepidemiological studies and for their inclusion in pre‐pandemic preparedness plans. Our results taken together with recent global pandemic respiratory‐associated mortality estimates suggest that the case fatality ratio of the pandemic virus was approximately 0·02%.

Validation of a new test for Schistosoma haematobium based on detection of Dra1 DNA fragments in urine: evaluation through latent class analysis

Background

Diagnosis of urogenital schistosomiasis in chronically infected adults is challenging but important, especially because long term infection of the bladder and urinary tract can have dire consequences. We evaluated three tests for viable infection: detection of parasite specific DNA Dra1 fragments, haematuria and presence of parasite eggs for sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp).

Methods

Over 400 urine specimens collected from adult volunteers in an endemic area in Western Nigeria were assessed for haematuria then filtered in the field, the filter papers dried and later examined for eggs and DNA. The results were stratified according to sex and age and subjected to Latent Class analysis.

Conclusions

Presence of Dra1 in males (Se = 100%; Sp = 100%) exceeded haematuria (Se = 87.6%: Sp = 34.7%) and detection of eggs (Se = 70.1%; Sp = 100%). In females presence of Dra1 was Se = 100%: Sp = 100%, exceeding haematuria (Se = 86.7%: Sp = 77.0%) and eggs (Se = 70.1%; Sp = 100%). Dra1 became undetectable 2 weeks after praziquantel treatment. We conclude detection of Dra1 fragment is a definitive test for the presence of Schistosoma haematobium infection.

The definitive test for schistosomiasis has been to detect parasite eggs in excreta. This is effective in children but as people age, it is difficult to find the eggs in spite of suspicion of infection. It also implies that adults have thrown off the infection, and therefore the infection is mainly one of children. However this is not the case as adults with chronic infections can develop severe bladder infection that can progress to bladder cancer. In clinical situations a sensitive test for urogenital schistosomiasis is important. We have recently shown that it is possible to detect schistosome species-specific DNA in urine, even in the absence of eggs in excreta. Here we use latent class analysis to compare sensitivity and specificity of three test procedures, haematuria, eggs in urine and specific DNA in urine in the absence of a gold standard. We show that the latter test is extremely promising for the diagnosis of urogenital schistosomiasis and should also be useful in field studies as it will be able to reveal infections in people frequently presumed to be uninfected. This new test indicated the presence of schistosomes in 10.7% of adults who did not pass eggs in urine specimens.

Integrated monitoring and evaluation and environmental risk factors for urogenital schistosomiasis and active trachoma in Burkina Faso before preventative chemotherapy using sentinel sites

Background

Over 1 billion of the world's poorest inhabitants are afflicted by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Integrated control programmes aimed at tackling these debilitating NTDs have been recently initiated, mainly using preventative chemotherapy. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of these integrated programs presents particular challenges over and above those required for single disease vertical programmes. We used baseline data from the National NTD Control Programme in Burkina Faso in order to assess the feasibility of an integrated survey design, as well as to elucidate the contribution of environmental variables to the risk of either Schistosoma haematobium, trachoma, or both among school-aged children.

Methods

S. haematobium infection was diagnosed by detecting eggs in urine. A trachoma case was defined by the presence of Trachomatous inflammation-Follicular (TF) and/or Trachomatous inflammation-Intense (TI) in either eye. Baseline data collected from 3,324 children aged 7-11 years in 21 sentinel sites across 11 regions of Burkina Faso were analyzed using simple and multivariable hierarchical binomial logistic regression models fitted by Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation methods. Probabilities of the risk of belonging to each infection/disease category were estimated as a function of age, gender (individual level), and environmental variables (at sentinel site level, interpolated from national meteorological stations).

Results

Overall prevalence at the sentinel sites was 11.79% (95% CI: 10.70-12.89) for S. haematobium; 13.30% (12.14-14.45) for trachoma and 0.84% (0.53-1.15) for co-infections. The only significant predictor of S. haematobium infection was altitude. There were significant negative associations between the prevalence of active trachoma signs and minimum temperature, and air pressure. Conditional upon these predictors, these data are consistent with the two pathogens being independent.

Conclusions

Urogenital schistosomiasis and trachoma constitute public health problems in Burkina Faso. Sentinel site (at school level) surveys for these two NTDs can be implemented simultaneously. However, to support MDA treatment decisions in Burkina Faso, the protocol used in this study would only be applicable to hypoendemic trachoma areas. More research is needed to confirm if these findings can be generalized to West Africa and beyond.

Risk factors for severe outcomes following 2009 influenza A (H1N1) infection: a global pooled analysis

BACKGROUND

Since the start of the 2009 influenza A pandemic (H1N1pdm), the World Health Organization and its member states have gathered information to characterize the clinical severity of H1N1pdm infection and to assist policy makers to determine risk groups for targeted control measures.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data were collected on approximately 70,000 laboratory-confirmed hospitalized H1N1pdm patients, 9,700 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), and 2,500 deaths reported between 1 April 2009 and 1 January 2010 from 19 countries or administrative regions--Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Madagascar, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, the United States, and the United Kingdom--to characterize and compare the distribution of risk factors among H1N1pdm patients at three levels of severity: hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. The median age of patients increased with severity of disease. The highest per capita risk of hospitalization was among patients <5 y and 5-14 y (relative risk [RR] = 3.3 and 3.2, respectively, compared to the general population), whereas the highest risk of death per capita was in the age groups 50-64 y and ≥65 y (RR = 1.5 and 1.6, respectively, compared to the general population). Similarly, the ratio of H1N1pdm deaths to hospitalizations increased with age and was the highest in the ≥65-y-old age group, indicating that while infection rates have been observed to be very low in the oldest age group, risk of death in those over the age of 64 y who became infected was higher than in younger groups. The proportion of H1N1pdm patients with one or more reported chronic conditions increased with severity (median = 31.1%, 52.3%, and 61.8% of hospitalized, ICU-admitted, and fatal H1N1pdm cases, respectively). With the exception of the risk factors asthma, pregnancy, and obesity, the proportion of patients with each risk factor increased with severity level. For all levels of severity, pregnant women in their third trimester consistently accounted for the majority of the total of pregnant women. Our findings suggest that morbid obesity might be a risk factor for ICU admission and fatal outcome (RR = 36.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that risk factors for severe H1N1pdm infection are similar to those for seasonal influenza, with some notable differences, such as younger age groups and obesity, and reinforce the need to identify and protect groups at highest risk of severe outcomes. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The impact of single versus mixed schistosome species infections on liver, spleen and bladder morbidity within Malian children pre- and post-praziquantel treatment

Background

In the developing world co-infections and polyparasitism within humans appear to be the rule rather than the exception, be it any combination of inter-specific and/or inter- and intra-Genera mixed infections. Mixed infections might generate synergistic or antagonistic interactions and thereby clinically affect individuals and/or impact parasite epidemiology.

Methods

The current study uniquely assesses both Schistosoma mansoni- and Schistosoma haematobium-related morbidity of the liver and the bladder as assessed by ultrasound as well as spleen and liver morbidity through clinical exams. The impact of praziquantel (PZQ) treatment on such potential inter-specific schistosome interactions and resulting morbidity using uniquely detailed longitudinal data (pre- and one year post-PZQ treatment) arising from the National Schistosomiasis Control Program in three areas of Mali: Ségou, Koulikoro and Bamako, is also evaluated. At baseline, data were collected from up to 2196 children (aged 7-14 years), 844 of which were infected with S. haematobium only, 124 with S. mansoni only and 477 with both. Follow-up data were collected from up to 1265 children.

Results

Results suggested lower liver morbidity in mixed compared to single S. mansoni infections and higher bladder morbidity in mixed compared to single S. haematobium infections. Single S. haematobium or S. mansoni infections were also associated with liver and spleen morbidity whilst only single S. haematobium infections were associated with bladder morbidity in these children (light S. haematobium infection OR: 4.3, p < 0.001 and heavy S. haematobium infection OR: 19, p < 0.001). PZQ treatment contributed to the regression of some of the forms of such morbidities.

Conclusions

Whilst the precise biological mechanisms for these observations remain to be ascertained, the results illustrate the importance of considering mixed species infections in any analyses of parasite-induced morbidity, including that for the proposed Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) revised estimates of schistosomiasis morbidity.

Impact of iron supplementation on schistosomiasis control in Zambian school children in a highly endemic area

AIM

To study impact of once weekly iron supplementation on praziquantel cure rate, Schistosoma haematobium reinfection, and haematological parameters in pupils aged between 9 and 15 years of age in Nchelenge district, Zambia.

METHODS

Pupils in the intervention group received once weekly dose of ferrous sulphate at 200 mg while those in the control received once weekly vitamin C at 100 mg for up to 9 months. Both study groups received a single dose of praziquantel at baseline.

RESULTS

S haematobium reinfection intensity was significantly lower in boys in the intervention group than in boys in the control group at 6 months (P < 0.001) and 9 months (P < 0.001) of supplementation. Significantly lower S haematobium reinfection intensity was found in girls in the intervention group than in girls in the control group only at 6 months of supplementation (P = 0.018). Boys in the intervention group were 42% (Adjusted Risk Ratio = 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.39, 0.86) less likely to be reinfected with S haematobium than in the control group at 6 months follow up.

CONCLUSION

Once weekly iron supplementation can decrease S haematobium reinfection after 6 months and should be incorporated into school based schistosomiasis control programs in highly endemic areas.

Polyparasite helminth infections and their association to anaemia and undernutrition in Northern Rwanda

BACKGROUND

Intestinal schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections constitute major public health problems in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. In this study we examined the functional significance of such polyparasite infections in anemia and undernutrition in Rwandan individuals.

METHODS

Three polyparasite infection profiles were defined, in addition to a reference profile that consisted of either no infections or low-intensity infection with only one of the focal parasite species. Logistic regression models were applied to data of 1,605 individuals from 6 schools in 2 districts of the Northern Province before chemotherapeutic treatment in order to correctly identify individuals who were at higher odds of being anaemic and/or undernourished.

FINDINGS

Stunted relative to nonstunted, and males compared to females, were found to be at higher odds of being anaemic independently of polyparasite infection profile. The odds of being wasted were 2-fold greater for children with concurrent infection of at least 2 parasites at M+ intensity compared to those children with the reference profile. Males compared to females and anaemic compared to nonanaemic children were significantly more likely to be stunted. None of the three polyparasite infection profiles were found to have significant effects on stunting.

CONCLUSION

The present data suggest that the levels of polyparasitism, and infection intensities in the Rwandan individuals examined here may be lower as compared to other recent similar epidemiological studies in different regions across sub-Saharan Africa. Neither the odds of anaemia nor the odds of stunting were found to be significantly different in the three-polyparasite infection profiles. However, the odds of wasting were higher in those children with at least two parasites at M+ intensity compared to those children with the reference profile. Nevertheless, despite the low morbidity levels indicated in the population under study here, we recommend sustainable efforts for the deworming of affected populations to be continued in order to support the economic development of the country.

Sensitivities and specificities of diagnostic tests and infection prevalence of Schistosoma haematobium estimated from data on adults in villages northwest of Accra, Ghana

Substantial uncertainties surround the sensitivities and specificities of diagnostic techniques for urinary schistosomiasis. We used latent class (LC) modeling to address this problem. In this study, 220 adults in three villages northwest of Accra, Ghana were examined using five Schistosoma haematobium diagnostic measures: microscopic examination of urine for detection of S. haematobium eggs, dipsticks for detection of hematuria, tests for circulating antigens, antibody tests, and ultrasound scans of the urinary system. Testing of the LC model indicated non-invariance of the performance of the diagnostic tests across different age groups, and measurement invariance held for males and females and for the three villages. We therefore recommend the use of LC models for comparison between and the identification of the most accurate schistosomiasis diagnostic tests. Furthermore, microscopy and hematuria dipsticks were indicated through these models as the most appropriate techniques for detection of S. haematobium infection.

Two-year impact of single praziquantel treatment on infection in the national control programme on schistosomiasis in Burkina Faso

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact on schistosomiasis of biennial treatment with praziquantel (PZQ) among school-age children in Burkina Faso, the first country that achieved full national coverage with treatment of more than 90% of the school-age population.

METHODS

A cohort of 1727 schoolchildren (6-14 years old) was monitored at yearly intervals through a longitudinal survey. Additional groups of schoolchildren were monitored in cross-sectional surveys. Parasitological examinations for Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni were performed, and prevalence and intensity of infection before and after treatment were analysed.

FINDINGS

Data from the longitudinal cohort show that a single round of PZQ treatment significantly reduced prevalence of S. haematobium infection by 87% (from 59.6% to 7.7%) and intensity of infection by 92.8% (from 94.2 to 6.8 eggs/10 ml of urine) 2 years post-treatment. The impact on infection was also confirmed by a cross-sectional survey 2 years post-treatment. Importantly, the proportion of school-age children with heavy S. haematobium infection decreased from around 25% before treatment to around 2-3% 2 years post-treatment. Cross-sectional comparison of S. haematobium infection in 7-year-old children in their first year at school, who received treatment through community-based drug delivery, also showed significant reduction in both prevalence (65.9%) and intensity of S. haematobium infection (78.4%) 2 years after single treatment. A significant reduction in S. mansoni infection was also achieved.

CONCLUSION

Significant and sustained reduction in S. haematobium infection was achieved by biennial treatment in school-age children in Burkina Faso. This may provide a cost-effective treatment strategy for similar national schistosomiasis control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa.

Relationships between anaemia and parasitic infections in Kenyan schoolchildren: a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach

Anaemia is multi-factorial in origin and disentangling its aetiology remains problematic, with surprisingly few studies investigating the relative contribution of different parasitic infections to anaemia amongst schoolchildren. We report cross-sectional data on haemoglobin, malaria parasitaemia, helminth infection and undernutrition among 1523 schoolchildren enrolled in classes 5 and 6 (aged 10–21 years) in 30 primary schools in western Kenya. Bayesian hierarchical modelling was used to investigate putative relationships. Children infected with Plasmodium falciparum or with a heavy Schistosoma mansoni infection, stunted children and girls were found to have lower haemoglobin concentrations. Children heavily infected with S. mansoni were also more likely to be anaemic compared with uninfected children. This study further highlights the importance of malaria and intestinal schistosomiasis as contributors to reduced haemoglobin levels among schoolchildren and helps guide the implementation of integrated school health programmes in areas of differing parasite transmission.

Parasitological impact of 2-year preventive chemotherapy on schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) are among the neglected tropical diseases in Africa. A national control program for these diseases was initiated in Uganda during March 2003. Annual treatment with praziquantel and albendazole was given to schoolchildren in endemic areas and to adults in selected communities where local prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni in schoolchildren was high.

METHODS

The impact of the treatment program was monitored through cohorts of schoolchildren and adults. Their infection status with S. mansoni and STH was determined by parasitological examinations at baseline and at annual follow-ups. The prevalence and intensity of S. mansoni and STH before and after treatment were analyzed.

RESULTS

Two rounds of treatment significantly reduced the prevalence of S. mansoni infection in schoolchildren across three regions in the country from 33.4-49.3% to 9.7-29.6%, and intensity of infection from 105.7-386.8 eggs per gram of faeces (epg) to 11.6-84.1 epg. The prevalence of hookworm infection was reduced from 41.2-57.9% to 5.5-16.1%, and intensity of infection from 186.9-416.8 epg to 3.7-36.9 epg. The proportion of children with heavy S. mansoni infection was significantly reduced from 15% (95% CI 13.4-16.8%) to 2.3% (95% CI 1.6-3.0%). In adults, significant reduction in the prevalence and intensity of S. mansoni and hookworm infections was also observed. More importantly, the prevalence and intensity of both S. mansoni and hookworm infections in the cohorts of newly-recruited 6-year-olds who had never previously received treatment decreased significantly over 2 years: 34.9% (95% CI 31.9-37.8%) to 22.6% (95% CI 19.9-25.2%) and 171.1 epg (95% CI 141.5-200.7) to 72.0 epg (95% CI 50.9-93.1) for S. mansoni; and 48.4% (95% CI 45.4-51.5) to 15.9% (95% CI 13.6-18.2) and 232.7 epg (95% CI 188.4-276.9) to 51.4 epg (95% CI 33.4-69.5) for hookworms, suggesting a general decline in environmental transmission levels.

CONCLUSION

Annual anthelminthic treatment delivered to schoolchildren and to adults at high risk in Uganda can significantly reduce the prevalence and intensity of infection for schistosomiasis and STH, and potentially also significantly reduce levels of environmental transmission of infection.

Schistosoma haematobium infection and morbidity before and after large-scale administration of praziquantel in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, 112 million people are infected with Schistosoma haematobium, with the most intense infections in children 5-15 years old.

METHODS

We describe a longitudinal epidemiological study that evaluates the relationship between S. haematobium infection and associated morbidity in children before and after the large-scale administration of praziquantel for schistosomiasis and albendazole for soil-transmitted helminths.

RESULTS

At baseline, higher intensities of S. haematobium infection were observed in children with anemia and/or severe microhematuria, but there was no apparent association between the risk of undernutrition and intensity of S. haematobium infection. Significant reductions in the prevalence and intensity of S. haematobium infection 1 year after treatment were, however, observed. Children who benefited the most from anthelmintic treatment in terms of increased hemoglobin concentrations were those who had anemia at baseline and those with highly positive microhematuria scores at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that even a single round of mass chemotherapy can have a substantial impact on S. haematobium infection and its associated morbidity in children.

Impact of a national helminth control programme on infection and morbidity in Ugandan schoolchildren

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the health impact of a national control programme targeting schistosomiasis and intestinal nematodes in Uganda, which has provided population-based anthelmintic chemotherapy since 2003.

METHODS

We conducted longitudinal surveys on infection status, haemoglobin concentration and clinical morbidity in 1871 randomly selected schoolchildren from 37 schools in eight districts across Uganda at three time points - before chemotherapy and after one year and two years of annual mass chemotherapy.

FINDINGS

Mass treatment with praziquantel and albendazole led to a significant decrease in the intensity of Schistosoma mansoni - 70% (95% confidence interval (CI): 66-73%) after one year and 82% (95% CI: 80-85%) after two years of treatment. Intensity of hookworm infection also decreased (75% and 93%; unadjusted). There was a significant increase in haemoglobin concentration after one (0.135 g/dL (95% CI: 0.126-0.144)) and two years (0.303 g/dL (95% CI: 0.293-0.312)) of treatment, and a significant decrease in signs of early clinical morbidity. The impact of intervention on S. mansoni prevalence and intensity was similar to that predicted by mathematical models of the impact of chemotherapy on human schistosomiasis. Improvements in haemoglobin concentration were greatest among children who were anaemic or harbouring heavy S. mansoni infection at baseline.

CONCLUSION

Anthelmintic treatment delivered as part of a national helminth control programme can decrease infection and morbidity among schoolchildren and improve haemoglobin concentration.

Assessment of ultrasound morbidity indicators of schistosomiasis in the context of large-scale programs illustrated with experiences from Malian children

We assessed morbidity indicators for both Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni infections and evaluated the appropriateness of the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for ultrasound in schistosomiasis in the context of large-scale control interventions. Abdominal and urinary tract ultrasonography was performed on 2,247 and 2,822 school children, respectively, from 29 randomly selected schools in Mali before the implementation of mass anthelminthic drug administration. Using two-level logistic regression models, we examined associations of potential factors with the risk of having a positive ultrasound global score (morbidity indicative of S. haematobium infection), abnormal image pattern scores, dilatation of the portal vein, and/or enlarged liver (morbidity indicative of S. mansoni infection). The WHO protocol was found useful for detection of S. haematobium pathology but overestimated the risk of portal vein dilatation and left liver lobe enlargement associated with S. mansoni infection. We conclude that ultrasonography should be included in large-scale control interventions, where logistics allow, but cautiously.

Morbidity indicators of Schistosoma mansoni: relationship between infection and anemia in Ugandan schoolchildren before and after praziquantel and albendazole chemotherapy

The potential relationship between Schistosoma mansoni and anemia was examined using data obtained by the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI) before (baseline) and 1 year after (follow-up) a chemotherapeutic treatment program in Uganda. Changes in hemoglobin (Hb) levels in 2,788 children in relation to their schistosomiasis and/or hookworm infection intensity category and baseline anemia status were analyzed. At baseline, significant predictors of childhood anemia were intensities of S. mansoni and hookworm infection. At follow-up, moderate or heavy hookworm as well as heavy S. mansoni infections were important. Children heavily infected with S. mansoni or hookworm had significantly lower Hb counts at baseline compared with those not infected. Among anemic children at the baseline survey, a significant increase in Hb counts of 0.834 g/dL after treatment was found. Our results suggest that anemia is associated with schistosomiasis and hookworm in Ugandan children and that such anemia shows a significant improvement after chemotherapy.