The utility of artificial intelligence in suicide risk prediction and the management of suicidal behaviors

Dynamic prediction of lung cancer suicide risk based on meteorological factors and clinical characteristics：A landmarking analysis approach

Suicide is a severe public health issue globally. Accurately identifying high-risk lung cancer patients for suicidal behavior and taking timely intervention measures has become a focus of current research. This study intended to construct dynamic prediction models for identifying suicide risk among lung cancer patients. Patients were sourced from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, while meteorological data was acquired from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This cohort comprised 455, 708 eligible lung cancer patients from January 1979 to December 2011. A Cox proportional hazard regression model based on landmarking approach was employed to explore the impact of meteorological factors and clinical characteristics on suicide among lung cancer patients, and to build dynamic prediction models for the suicide risk of these patients. Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted by age and sex. The model's performance was evaluated using the C-index, Brier score, area under curve (AUC) and calibration plot. During the study period, there were 666 deaths by suicide among lung cancer patients. Multivariable Cox results from the dynamic prediction model indicated that age, marital status, race, sex, primary site, stage, monthly average daily sunlight, and monthly average temperature were significant predictors of suicide. The dynamic prediction model demonstrated well consistency and discrimination capabilities. Subgroup analyses revealed that the association of monthly average daily sunlight and monthly average temperature with suicide remained significant among female and younger lung cancer patients. The dynamic prediction model can effectively incorporate covariates with time-varying to predict lung cancer patients' suicide death. The results of this study have significant implications for assessing lung cancer individuals' suicide risk.

Predicting inmate suicidal behavior with an interpretable ensemble machine learning approach in smart prisons

The convergence of smart technologies and predictive modelling in prisons presents an exciting opportunity to revolutionize the monitoring of inmate behaviour, allowing for the early detection of signs of distress and the effective mitigation of suicide risks. While machine learning algorithms have been extensively employed in predicting suicidal behaviour, a critical aspect that has often been overlooked is the interoperability of these models. Most of the work done on model interpretations for suicide predictions often limits itself to feature reduction and highlighting important contributing features only. To address this research gap, we used Anchor explanations for creating human-readable statements based on simple rules, which, to our knowledge, have never been used before for suicide prediction models. We also overcome the limitation of anchor explanations, which create weak rules on high-dimensionality datasets, by first reducing data features with the help of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). We further reduce data features through anchor interpretations for the final ensemble model of XGBoost and random forest. Our results indicate significant improvement when compared with state-of-the-art models, having an accuracy and precision of 98.6% and 98.9%, respectively. The F1-score for the best suicide ideation model appeared to be 96.7%.

Role of machine learning algorithms in suicide risk prediction: a systematic review-meta analysis of clinical studies

OBJECTIVE

Suicide is a complex and multifactorial public health problem. Understanding and addressing the various factors associated with suicide is crucial for prevention and intervention efforts. Machine learning (ML) could enhance the prediction of suicide attempts.

METHOD

A systematic review was performed using PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and SID databases. We aim to evaluate the performance of ML algorithms and summarize their effects, gather relevant and reliable information to synthesize existing evidence, identify knowledge gaps, and provide a comprehensive list of the suicide risk factors using mixed method approach.

RESULTS

Forty-one studies published between 2011 and 2022, which matched inclusion criteria, were chosen as suitable. We included studies aimed at predicting the suicide risk by machine learning algorithms except natural language processing (NLP) and image processing. The neural network (NN) algorithm exhibited the lowest accuracy at 0.70, whereas the random forest demonstrated the highest accuracy, reaching 0.94. The study assessed the COX and random forest models and observed a minimum area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.54. In contrast, the XGBoost classifier yielded the highest AUC value, reaching 0.97. These specific AUC values emphasize the algorithm-specific performance in capturing the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity for suicide risk prediction. Furthermore, our investigation identified several common suicide risk factors, including age, gender, substance abuse, depression, anxiety, alcohol consumption, marital status, income, education, and occupation. This comprehensive analysis contributes valuable insights into the multifaceted nature of suicide risk, providing a foundation for targeted preventive strategies and intervention efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

The effectiveness of ML algorithms and their application in predicting suicide risk has been controversial. There is a need for more studies on these algorithms in clinical settings, and the related ethical concerns require further clarification.

Examining the role of AI technology in online mental healthcare: opportunities, challenges, and implications, a mixed-methods review

Introduction

Online mental healthcare has gained significant attention due to its effectiveness, accessibility, and scalability in the management of mental health symptoms. Despite these advantages over traditional in-person formats, including higher availability and accessibility, issues with low treatment adherence and high dropout rates persist. Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies could help address these issues, through powerful predictive models, language analysis, and intelligent dialogue with users, however the study of these applications remains underexplored. The following mixed methods review aimed to supplement this gap by synthesizing the available evidence on the applications of AI in online mental healthcare.

Method

We searched the following databases: MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EMBASE, and Cochrane. This review included peer-reviewed randomized controlled trials, observational studies, non-randomized experimental studies, and case studies that were selected using the PRISMA guidelines. Data regarding pre and post-intervention outcomes and AI applications were extracted and analyzed. A mixed-methods approach encompassing meta-analysis and network meta-analysis was used to analyze pre and post-intervention outcomes, including main effects, depression, anxiety, and study dropouts. We applied the Cochrane risk of bias tool and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) to assess the quality of the evidence.

Results

Twenty-nine studies were included revealing a variety of AI applications including triage, psychotherapy delivery, treatment monitoring, therapy engagement support, identification of effective therapy features, and prediction of treatment response, dropout, and adherence. AI-delivered self-guided interventions demonstrated medium to large effects on managing mental health symptoms, with dropout rates comparable to non-AI interventions. The quality of the data was low to very low.

Discussion

The review supported the use of AI in enhancing treatment response, adherence, and improvements in online mental healthcare. Nevertheless, given the low quality of the available evidence, this study highlighted the need for additional robust and high-powered studies in this emerging field.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=443575, identifier CRD42023443575.

A Randomized Control Trial of a Digital Health Tool for Safer Firearm and Medication Storage for Patients with Suicide Risk

Most patients with suicide risk do not receive recommendations to reduce access to lethal means due to a variety of barriers (e.g., lack of provider time, training). Determine if highly efficient population-based EHR messaging to visit the Lock to Live (L2L) decision aid impacts patient-reported storage behaviors. Randomized trial. Integrated health care system serving Denver, CO. Served by primary care or mental health specialty clinic in the 75-99.5th risk percentile on a suicide attempt or death prediction model. Lock to Live (L2L) is a web-based decision aid that incorporates patients' values into recommendations for safe storage of lethal means, including firearms and medications. Anonymous survey that determined readiness to change: pre-contemplative (do not believe in safe storage), contemplative (believe in safe storage but not doing it), preparation (planning storage changes) or action (safely storing). There were 21,131 patients randomized over a 6-month period with a 27% survey response rate. Many (44%) had access to a firearm, but most of these (81%) did not use any safe firearm storage behaviors. Intervention patients were more likely to be categorized as preparation or action compared to controls for firearm storage (OR = 1.30 (1.07-1.58)). When examining action alone, there were no group differences. There were no statistically significant differences for any medication storage behaviors. Selection bias in those who responded to survey. Efficiently sending an EHR invitation message to visit L2L encouraged patients with suicide risk to consider safer firearm storage practices, but a stronger intervention is needed to change storage behaviors. Future studies should evaluate whether combining EHR messaging with provider nudges (e.g., brief clinician counseling) changes storage behavior.ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05288517.

Beyond human expertise: the promise and limitations of ChatGPT in suicide risk assessment

ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence language model developed by OpenAI, holds the potential for contributing to the field of mental health. Nevertheless, although ChatGPT theoretically shows promise, its clinical abilities in suicide prevention, a significant mental health concern, have yet to be demonstrated. To address this knowledge gap, this study aims to compare ChatGPT's assessments of mental health indicators to those of mental health professionals in a hypothetical case study that focuses on suicide risk assessment. Specifically, ChatGPT was asked to evaluate a text vignette describing a hypothetical patient with varying levels of perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness. The ChatGPT assessments were compared to the norms of mental health professionals. The results indicated that ChatGPT rated the risk of suicide attempts lower than did the mental health professionals in all conditions. Furthermore, ChatGPT rated mental resilience lower than the norms in most conditions. These results imply that gatekeepers, patients or even mental health professionals who rely on ChatGPT for evaluating suicidal risk or as a complementary tool to improve decision-making may receive an inaccurate assessment that underestimates the actual suicide risk.

Predictive value of suicidal risk assessment using data from China's largest suicide prevention hotline

BACKGROUND

Suicide hotlines are widely used, with potential for identification of callers at especially high risk.

METHODS

This prospective study was conducted at the largest psychological support hotline in China. From 2015 to 2017, all distressed callers were consecutively included and assessed, using a standardized scale consisting of 12 elements, yielding scores of high risk (8-16), moderate risk (4-7), and low risk (0-3) for suicidal act. All high-risk and half of moderate- and low-risk callers were scheduled for a 12-month follow-up. Main outcomes were suicidal acts (nonlethal attempt, death) over follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 21,346 fully assessed callers, 5822, 11,791, and 3733 were classified as high-, moderate-, or low-risk for suicidal acts, with 8869 callers (4076 high-, 3258 moderate-, and 1535 low-risk) followed up over 12 months. Over follow-up, 802 (9.0 %) callers attempted suicide or died by suicide. The high-risk callers (15.1 %) had 3-fold higher risk for subsequent suicidal acts than moderate- (5.1 %) and 12-fold higher risk than low-risk callers (1.3 %). The weighted sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of high risk scores were 56.4 %, 74.9 %, and 14.4 %.

LIMITATIONS

Assessed callers with different risk levels were followed disproportionally.

CONCLUSIONS

Suicidal risk assessment during a hotline call is both feasible and predictive of risk, guiding resource allocation to higher risk callers.

A Stakeholder-Informed Ethical Framework to Guide Implementation of Suicide Risk Prediction Models Derived from Electronic Health Records

OBJECTIVE

Develop a stakeholder-informed ethical framework to provide practical guidance to health systems considering implementation of suicide risk prediction models.

METHODS

In this multi-method study, patients and family members participating in formative focus groups (n = 4 focus groups, 23 participants), patient advisors, and a bioethics consultant collectively informed the development of a web-based survey; survey results (n = 1,357 respondents) and themes from interviews with stakeholders (patients, health system administrators, clinicians, suicide risk model developers, and a bioethicist) were used to draft the ethical framework.

RESULTS

Clinical, ethical, operational, and technical issues reiterated by multiple stakeholder groups and corresponding questions for risk prediction model adopters to consider prior to and during suicide risk model implementation are organized within six ethical principles in the resulting stakeholder-informed framework. Key themes include: patients' rights to informed consent and choice to conceal or reveal risk (autonomy); appropriate application of risk models, data and model limitations and consequences including ambiguous risk predictors in opaque models (explainability); selecting actionable risk thresholds (beneficence, distributive justice); access to risk information and stigma (privacy); unanticipated harms (non-maleficence); and planning for expertise and resources to continuously audit models, monitor harms, and redress grievances (stewardship).

CONCLUSIONS

Enthusiasm for risk prediction in the context of suicide is understandable given the escalating suicide rate in the U.S. Attention to ethical and practical concerns in advance of automated suicide risk prediction model implementation may help avoid unnecessary harms that could thwart the promise of this innovation in suicide prevention. HIGHLIGHTSPatients' desire to consent/opt out of suicide risk prediction models.Recursive ethical questioning should occur throughout risk model implementation.Risk modeling resources are needed to continuously audit models and monitor harms.

Diagnostic quality model (DQM): an integrated framework for the assessment of diagnostic quality when using AI/ML

BACKGROUND

Laboratory medicine has reached the era where promises of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) seem palpable. Currently, the primary responsibility for risk-benefit assessment in clinical practice resides with the medical director. Unfortunately, there is no tool or concept that enables diagnostic quality assessment for the various potential AI/ML applications. Specifically, we noted that an operational definition of laboratory diagnostic quality - for the specific purpose of assessing AI/ML improvements - is currently missing.

METHODS

A session at the 3rd Strategic Conference of the European Federation of Laboratory Medicine in 2022 on "AI in the Laboratory of the Future" prompted an expert roundtable discussion. Here we present a conceptual diagnostic quality framework for the specific purpose of assessing AI/ML implementations.

RESULTS

The presented framework is termed diagnostic quality model (DQM) and distinguishes AI/ML improvements at the test, procedure, laboratory, or healthcare ecosystem level. The operational definition illustrates the nested relationship among these levels. The model can help to define relevant objectives for implementation and how levels come together to form coherent diagnostics. The affected levels are referred to as scope and we provide a rubric to quantify AI/ML improvements while complying with existing, mandated regulatory standards. We present 4 relevant clinical scenarios including multi-modal diagnostics and compare the model to existing quality management systems.

CONCLUSIONS

A diagnostic quality model is essential to navigate the complexities of clinical AI/ML implementations. The presented diagnostic quality framework can help to specify and communicate the key implications of AI/ML solutions in laboratory diagnostics.

A machine learning approach to identifying suicide risk among text-based crisis counseling encounters

Introduction

With the increasing utilization of text-based suicide crisis counseling, new means of identifying at risk clients must be explored. Natural language processing (NLP) holds promise for evaluating the content of crisis counseling; here we use a data-driven approach to evaluate NLP methods in identifying client suicide risk.

Methods

De-identified crisis counseling data from a regional text-based crisis encounter and mobile tipline application were used to evaluate two modeling approaches in classifying client suicide risk levels. A manual evaluation of model errors and system behavior was conducted.

Results

The neural model outperformed a term frequency-inverse document frequency (tf-idf) model in the false-negative rate. While 75% of the neural model's false negative encounters had some discussion of suicidality, 62.5% saw a resolution of the client's initial concerns. Similarly, the neural model detected signals of suicidality in 60.6% of false-positive encounters.

Discussion

The neural model demonstrated greater sensitivity in the detection of client suicide risk. A manual assessment of errors and model performance reflected these same findings, detecting higher levels of risk in many of the false-positive encounters and lower levels of risk in many of the false negatives. NLP-based models can detect the suicide risk of text-based crisis encounters from the encounter's content.

An explainable predictive model for suicide attempt risk using an ensemble learning and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) approach

Machine learning approaches have been used to develop suicide attempt predictive models recently and have been shown to have a good performance. However, those proposed models have difficulty interpreting and understanding why an individual has suicidal attempts. To overcome this issue, the identification of features such as risk factors in predicting suicide attempts is important for clinicians to make decisions. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose an explainable predictive model to predict and analyse the importance of features for suicide attempts. This model can also provide explanations to improve the clinical understanding of suicide attempts. Two complex ensemble learning models, namely Random Forest and Gradient Boosting with an explanatory model (SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)) have been constructed. The models are used for predictive interpretation and understanding of the importance of the features. The experiment shows that both models with SHAP are able to interpret and understand the nature of an individual's predictions with suicide attempts. However, compared with Random Forest, the results show that Gradient Boosting with SHAP achieves higher accuracy and the analyses found that history of suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and ethnicity as the main predictors for suicide attempts.

Development of Internet suicide message identification and the Monitoring-Tracking-Rescuing model in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Suicide messages can be transmitted infinitely online; the Internet is influential in suicide prevention. Identifying suicide risks online via artificial technological advances may help predict suicide.

METHODS

We built a classifier that detects open messages containing suicidal ideation or behavior-related words in social media via text mining methods and developed the Monitoring-Tracking-Rescuing model, which links data monitoring and tracking to high-risk suicide rescues. Natural language processing (NLP) techniques such as Long Short-Term Memory and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers were applied to online posts of common social media sites in Taiwan. This model uses a two-step high-risk identification procedure: an automatic prediction process using NLP to classify suicide-risk levels, followed by professional validation by a senior psychiatrist and a nursing faculty specialized in suicidology.

RESULTS

From a dataset containing 404 high-risk and 2226 no- or low-risk articles, the sensitivity and specificity of our model reached 80 %.

LIMITATIONS

The model is limited to data platforms that can be "crawled" and excludes suicide-risk content from graphics, video and audio files. Additionally, machine learning does not provide the best recognition rate from complex online messages. Keywords for high-risk suicide in long articles are difficult to interpret using this model. Finally, the model lacks keywords for suicide-protective factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Artificial intelligence techniques may help detect and monitor high-risk suicide posts and inform mental health professionals of these posts. Periodic tracking plus manual validation to determine risk levels are recommended to enhance the reliability and effectiveness of Internet suicide-prevention tasks.

Understanding Alcohol Use Discourse and Stigma Patterns in Perinatal Care on Twitter

(1) Background: perinatal alcohol use generates a variety of health risks. Social media platforms discuss fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) and other widespread outcomes, providing personalized user-generated content about the perceptions and behaviors related to alcohol use during pregnancy. Data collected from Twitter underscores various narrative structures and sentiments in tweets that reflect large-scale discourses and foster societal stigmas; (2) Methods: We extracted alcohol-related tweets from May 2019 to October 2021 using an official Twitter search API based on a set of keywords provided by our clinical team. Our exploratory study utilized thematic content analysis and inductive qualitative coding methods to analyze user content. Iterative line-by-line coding categorized dynamic descriptive themes from a random sample of 500 tweets; (3) Results: qualitative methods from content analysis revealed underlying patterns among inter-user engagements, outlining individual, interpersonal and population-level stigmas about perinatal alcohol use and negative sentiment towards drinking mothers. As a result, the overall silence surrounding personal experiences with alcohol use during pregnancy suggests an unwillingness and sense of reluctancy from pregnant adults to leverage the platform for support and assistance due to societal stigmas; (4) Conclusions: identifying these discursive factors will facilitate more effective public health programs that take into account specific challenges related to social media networks and develop prevention strategies to help Twitter users struggling with perinatal alcohol use.

Correlation Between Sleep Electroencephalogram, Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor, AVPR1B Gene Polymorphism, and Suicidal Behavior in Patients with Depression

The purpose of this article was to investigate the level of serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor and its relationship with suicidal symptoms and severity in mentally ill suicide attempt patients, and to explore the possible role of serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in the occurrence of psychotic suicidal behavior. A retrospective analysis was performed on patients with depression in the neurology department of a hospital. General physical examination, neurological specialist examination, and cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examination were performed on any selected group. We applied the 24-item Hamilton Depression Scale, Hamilton Anxiety Scale, and Mini-Intelligence Mental State Scale, and performed polysomnography and electroencephalography (EEG) monitoring to conduct statistical analysis on sleep indicators. The amplitude of low-frequency fluctuation (ALFF) values of the right frontal gyrus, left posterior cerebellar lobe, right anterior cerebellar lobe, and right occipital lingual gyrus of the patient group were significantly lower than those of the control group. The ReHo values of the right superior parietal lobule, the left precuneus, and the right occipital lingual gyrus were significantly higher than those of the control group. The genotype and allele frequency distribution of FKBP5, AVPR1B, and CRHR2 gene SNPs had no significant difference between the case group and the control group (P > 0.05). The ReHo value of the precuneus is significantly correlated with the proportion of N3 sleep, and the dysfunction of the precuneus or default network may be related to the altered sleep structure in patients with depression. The GT and TT genotypes at rs9324924 of the NR3C1 gene are associated with suicide attempts.

The performance of machine learning models in predicting suicidal ideation, attempts, and deaths: A meta-analysis and systematic review

Research has posited that machine learning could improve suicide risk prediction models, which have traditionally performed poorly. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the performance of machine learning models in predicting longitudinal outcomes of suicide-related outcomes of ideation, attempt, and death and examines outcome, data, and model types as potential covariates of model performance. Studies were extracted from PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and PsycINFO. A bivariate mixed effects meta-analysis and meta-regression analyses were performed for studies using machine learning to predict future events of suicidal ideation, attempts, and/or deaths. Risk of bias was assessed for each study using an adaptation of the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Narrative review included 56 studies, and analyses examined 54 models from 35 studies. The models achieved a very good pooled AUC of 0.86, sensitivity of 0.66 (95% CI [0.60, 0.72)], and specificity of 0.87 (95% CI [0.84, 0.90]). Pooled AUCs for ideation, attempt, and death were similar at 0.88, 0.87, and 0.84 respectively. Model performance was highly varied; however, meta-regressions did not provide evidence that performance varied by outcome, data, or model types. Findings suggest that machine learning has the potential to improve suicide risk detection, with pooled estimates of machine learning performance comparing favourably to performance of traditional suicide prediction models. However, more studies with lower risk of bias are necessary to improve the application of machine learning in suicidology.

Structured data vs. unstructured data in machine learning prediction models for suicidal behaviors: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Suicide remains a leading cause of preventable death worldwide, despite advances in research and decreases in mental health stigma through government health campaigns. Machine learning (ML), a type of artificial intelligence (AI), is the use of algorithms to simulate and imitate human cognition. Given the lack of improvement in clinician-based suicide prediction over time, advancements in technology have allowed for novel approaches to predicting suicide risk. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to synthesize current research regarding data sources in ML prediction of suicide risk, incorporating and comparing outcomes between structured data (human interpretable such as psychometric instruments) and unstructured data (only machine interpretable such as electronic health records). Online databases and gray literature were searched for studies relating to ML and suicide risk prediction. There were 31 eligible studies. The outcome for all studies combined was AUC = 0.860, structured data showed AUC = 0.873, and unstructured data was calculated at AUC = 0.866. There was substantial heterogeneity between the studies, the sources of which were unable to be defined. The studies showed good accuracy levels in the prediction of suicide risk behavior overall. Structured data and unstructured data also showed similar outcome accuracy according to meta-analysis, despite different volumes and types of input data.

A Southeast Asian expert consensus on the management of major depressive disorder with suicidal behavior in adults under 65 years of age

BACKGROUND

The high prevalence of suicidal behavior among individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) in Southeast Asia (SEA) underscores the need for optimized management to address depressive symptoms, reduce suicide risk and prevent suicide in these individuals. Given the lack of clear guideline recommendations for assessing and managing these patients, regional consensus-based recommendations which take into account diverse local contexts across SEA may provide useful guidance for clinical practice.

METHODS

A narrative literature review and pre-meeting survey were conducted prior to the consensus meeting of an SEA expert panel comprising 13 psychiatrists with clinical experience in managing patients with MDD with suicidal behavior. Utilizing the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method, the expert panel developed consensus-based recommendations on the assessment and treatment of adult patients with MDD with suicidal behavior under 65 years.

RESULTS

Screening of adult patients under 65 years with MDD for suicide risk using both a validated assessment tool and clinical interview is recommended. An improved suicide risk stratification - incorporating both severity and temporality, or using a prevention-focused risk formulation - should be considered. For a patient with an MDD episode with low risk of suicide, use of antidepressant monotherapy, and psychotherapy in combination with pharmacological treatment are both recommended approaches. For a patient with an MDD episode with high risk of suicide, or imminent risk of suicide requiring rapid clinical response, or for a patient who had received adequate AD but still reported suicidal behavior, recommended treatment strategies include antidepressant augmentation, combination use of psychotherapy or electroconvulsive therapy with pharmacological treatment, and inpatient care. Suicide-specific psychosocial interventions are important for suicide prevention and should also be part of the management of patients with MDD with suicidal behavior.

CONCLUSIONS

There are still unmet needs in the assessment of suicide risk and availability of treatment options that can deliver rapid response in patients with MDD with suicidal behavior. These consensus recommendations on the management of adult patients with MDD with suicidal behavior under 65 years may serve as a useful guidance in diverse clinical practices across the SEA region. Clinical judgment based on careful consideration of individual circumstances of each patient remains key to determining the most appropriate treatment option.

Prediction of Online Psychological Help-Seeking Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Interpretable Machine Learning Method

Online mental health service (OMHS) has been named as the best psychological assistance measure during the COVID-19 pandemic. An interpretable, accurate, and early prediction for the demand of OMHS is crucial to local governments and organizations which need to allocate and make the decision in mental health resources. The present study aimed to investigate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the online psychological help-seeking (OPHS) behavior in the OMHS, then propose a machine learning model to predict and interpret the OPHS number in advance. The data was crawled from two Chinese OMHS platforms. Linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC), neural embedding-based topic modeling, and time series analysis were utilized to build time series feature sets with lagging one, three, seven, and 14 days. Correlation analysis was used to examine the impact of COVID-19 on OPHS behaviors across different OMHS platforms. Machine learning algorithms and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) were used to build the prediction. The result showed that the massive growth of OPHS behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic was a common phenomenon. The predictive model based on random forest (RF) and feature sets containing temporal features of the OPHS number, mental health topics, LIWC, and COVID-19 cases achieved the best performance. Temporal features of the OPHS number showed the biggest positive and negative predictive power. The topic features had incremental effects on performance of the prediction across different lag days and were more suitable for OPHS prediction compared to the LIWC features. The interpretable model showed that the increase in the OPHS behaviors was impacted by the cumulative confirmed cases and cumulative deaths, while it was not sensitive in the new confirmed cases or new deaths. The present study was the first to predict the demand for OMHS using machine learning during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study suggests an interpretable machine learning method that can facilitate quick, early, and interpretable prediction of the OPHS behavior and to support the operational decision-making; it also demonstrated the power of utilizing the OMHS platforms as an always-on data source to obtain a high-resolution timeline and real-time prediction of the psychological response of the online public.

Translating promise into practice: a review of machine learning in suicide research and prevention

In ever more pressured health-care systems, technological solutions offering scalability of care and better resource targeting are appealing. Research on machine learning as a technique for identifying individuals at risk of suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and death has grown rapidly. This research often places great emphasis on the promise of machine learning for preventing suicide, but overlooks the practical, clinical implementation issues that might preclude delivering on such a promise. In this Review, we synthesise the broad empirical and review literature on electronic health record-based machine learning in suicide research, and focus on matters of crucial importance for implementation of machine learning in clinical practice. The challenge of preventing statistically rare outcomes is well known; progress requires tackling data quality, transparency, and ethical issues. In the future, machine learning models might be explored as methods to enable targeting of interventions to specific individuals depending upon their level of need-ie, for precision medicine. Primarily, however, the promise of machine learning for suicide prevention is limited by the scarcity of high-quality scalable interventions available to individuals identified by machine learning as being at risk of suicide.

Artificial intelligence and suicide prevention: a systematic review

Background

Suicide is one of the main preventable causes of death. Artificial intelligence (AI) could improve methods for assessing suicide risk. The objective of this review is to assess the potential of AI in identifying patients who are at risk of attempting suicide.

Methods

A systematic review of the literature was conducted on PubMed, EMBASE, and SCOPUS databases, using relevant keywords.

Results

Thanks to this research, 296 studies were identified. Seventeen studies, published between 2014 and 2020 and matching inclusion criteria, were selected as relevant. Included studies aimed at predicting individual suicide risk or identifying at-risk individuals in a specific population. The AI performance was overall good, although variable across different algorithms and application settings.

Conclusions

AI appears to have a high potential for identifying patients at risk of suicide. The precise use of these algorithms in clinical situations, as well as the ethical issues it raises, remain to be clarified.

Cannabis use and suicidal ideation among youth: Can we democratize school policies using digital citizen science?

BACKGROUND

School policies and programs are important in preventing Cannabis use among youth. This study uses an innovative digital citizen science approach to determine the association between Cannabis use and suicidal ideation among youth while investigating how school health policies mediate this association.

METHODS

The study engaged 818 youth (aged 13-18 years) and 27 educators as citizen scientists via their own smartphones. Youths responded to time-triggered validated surveys and ecological momentary assessments to report on a complex set of health behaviours and outcomes. Similarly, educators' reported on substance misuse and mental health school policies and programs. Multivariable logistic regression modeling and mediation analyses were employed.

RESULTS

412 youth provided data on substance misuse and suicidal ideation. Cannabis use and other factors such as bullying, other illicit drug use, and youth who identified as females or other gender were associated with increased suicidal ideation. However, school policies and programs for substance misuse prevention did not mediate the association between Cannabis use and suicidal ideation.

CONCLUSIONS

In the digital age, it is critical to reimagine the role of schools in health policy interventions. Digital citizen science not only provides an opportunity to democratize school policymaking and implementation processes, but also provides a voice to vulnerable youth.

Artificial Intelligence: Review of Current and Future Applications in Medicine

Background

The role of artificial intelligence (AI) in health care is expanding rapidly. Currently, there are at least 29 US Food and Drug Administration-approved AI health care devices that apply to numerous medical specialties and many more are in development.

Observations

With increasing expectations for all health care sectors to deliver timely, fiscally-responsible, high-quality health care, AI has potential utility in numerous areas, such as image analysis, improved workflow and efficiency, public health, and epidemiology, to aid in processing large volumes of patient and medical data. In this review, we describe basic terminology, principles, and general AI applications relating to health care. We then discuss current and future applications for a variety of medical specialties. Finally, we discuss the future potential of AI along with the potential risks and limitations of current AI technology.

Conclusions

AI can improve diagnostic accuracy, increase patient safety, assist with patient triage, monitor disease progression, and assist with treatment decisions.

Workplace health surveillance and COVID-19: algorithmic health discrimination and cancer survivors

PURPOSE

This article examines ways COVID-19 health surveillance and algorithmic decision-making ("ADM") are creating and exacerbating workplace inequalities that impact post-treatment cancer survivors. Cancer survivors' ability to exercise their right to work often is limited by prejudice and health concerns. While cancer survivors can ostensibly elect not to disclose to their employers when they are receiving treatments or if they have a history of treatment, the use of ADM increases the chances that employers will learn of their situation regardless of their preferences. Moreover, absent significant change, inequalities may persist or even expand.

METHODS

We analyze how COVID-19 health surveillance is creating an unprecedented amount of health data on all people. These data are increasingly collected and used by employers as part of COVID-19 regulatory interventions.

RESULTS

The increase in data, combined with the health and economic crisis, means algorithm-driven health inequalities will be experienced by a larger percentage of the population. Post-treatment cancer survivors, as for people with disabilities generally, are at greater risk of experiencing negative outcomes from algorithmic health discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated and revised workplace policy and practice requirements, as well as collaboration across impacted groups, are critical in helping to control the inequalities that flow from the interaction between COVID-19, ADM, and the experience of cancer survivorship in the workplace.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS

The interaction among COVID-19, health surveillance, and ADM increases exposure to algorithmic health discrimination in the workplace.

The Potential Impact of Adjunct Digital Tools and Technology to Help Distressed and Suicidal Men: An Integrative Review

Suicidal men feel the need to be self-reliant and that they cannot find another way out of relationship or socioeconomic issues. Suicide prevention is of crucial importance worldwide. The much higher rate of suicide in men engenders action. The prelude is a subjective experience that can be very isolating and severely distressing. Men may not realize a change in their thinking and behaviors, which makes it more difficult to seek and get help, thereby interrupting a "downward spiral". Stoicism often prevents men from admitting to their personal struggle. The lack of "quality" connections and "non-tailored" therapies has led to a high number of men "walking out" on traditional clinical approaches. But there are complicated relationships in motivations and formative behaviors of suicide with regards to emotional state, psychiatric disorders, interpersonal life events and suicidal behavior method selection. Middle-aged and older men have alternated as the most at-risk of suicide. There is no one solution that applies to all men, but digital tools may be of assistance (e.g., video conferences, social networks, telephone calls, and emails). Digital interventions require higher levels of effectiveness for distress and suicidality but self-guided approaches may be the most suitable for men especially where linked with an integrated online suicide prevention platform (e.g., quick response with online chats, phone calls, and emails). Furthermore, technology-enabled models of care offer promise to advance appropriate linking to mental health services through better and faster understanding of the specific needs of individuals (e.g., socio-cultural) and the type and level of suicidality experienced. Long-term evidence for suicidality and its evaluation may benefit from progressing human computer-interaction and providing impetus for an eminent integrated digital platform.

Application of Artificial Intelligence on Psychological Interventions and Diagnosis: An Overview

BACKGROUND

Innovative technologies, such as machine learning, big data, and artificial intelligence (AI) are approaches adopted for personalized medicine, and psychological interventions and diagnosis are facing huge paradigm shifts. In this literature review, we aim to highlight potential applications of AI on psychological interventions and diagnosis.

METHODS

This literature review manifest studies that discuss how innovative technology as deep learning (DL) and AI is affecting psychological assessment and psychotherapy, we performed a search on PUBMED, and Web of Science using the terms "psychological interventions," "diagnosis on mental health disorders," "artificial intelligence," and "deep learning." Only studies considering patients' datasets are considered.

RESULTS

Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Beneficial effects on clinical symptoms or prediction were shown in these studies, but future study is needed to determine the long-term effects.

LIMITATIONS

The major limitation for the current study is the small sample size, and lies in the lack of long-term follow-up-controlled studies for a certain symptom.

CONCLUSIONS

AI such as DL applications showed promising results on clinical practice, which could lead to profound impact on personalized medicine for mental health conditions. Future studies can improve furthermore by increasing sample sizes and focusing on ethical approvals and adherence for online-therapy.

Challenges in the development of digital public health interventions and mapped solutions: Findings from a scoping review

Background

“Digital public health” has emerged from an interest in integrating digital technologies into public health. However, significant challenges which limit the scale and extent of this digital integration in various public health domains have been described. We summarized the literature about these challenges and identified strategies to overcome them.

Methods

We adopted Arksey and O’Malley's framework (2005) integrating adaptations by Levac et al. (2010). OVID Medline, Embase, Google Scholar, and 14 government and intergovernmental agency websites were searched using terms related to “digital” and “public health.” We included conceptual and explicit descriptions of digital technologies in public health published in English between 2000 and June 2020. We excluded primary research articles about digital health interventions. Data were extracted using a codebook created using the European Public Health Association's conceptual framework for digital public health.

Results and analysis

Overall, 163 publications were included from 6953 retrieved articles with the majority (64%, n = 105) published between 2015 and June 2020. Nontechnical challenges to digital integration in public health concerned ethics, policy and governance, health equity, resource gaps, and quality of evidence. Technical challenges included fragmented and unsustainable systems, lack of clear standards, unreliability of available data, infrastructure gaps, and workforce capacity gaps. Identified strategies included securing political commitment, intersectoral collaboration, economic investments, standardized ethical, legal, and regulatory frameworks, adaptive research and evaluation, health workforce capacity building, and transparent communication and public engagement.

Conclusion

Developing and implementing digital public health interventions requires efforts that leverage identified strategies to overcome diverse challenges encountered in integrating digital technologies in public health.

A Suicide Monitoring and Crisis Intervention Strategy Based on Knowledge Graph Technology for "Tree Hole" Microblog Users in China

“Zou Fan” is currently the largest “tree hole” on Weibo, where people having suicidal ideation often express their thoughts and use this channel to seek support. Therefore, early suicide monitoring and timely crisis intervention based on artificial intelligence technology are needed for this social media user group. This research was based on the knowledge graph technology, whereby “Tree Hole Intelligent Agent” (i.e., Artificial Intelligence Program) was used to identify “Zou Fan Tree Hole” users at high risk for suicide, and then, the “Tree Hole Action” carried out proactive suicide crisis intervention with them. The “Tree Hole Action” has temporarily prevented 3,629 potential suicides. The “Tree Hole Action” plays a significant role in suicide risk monitoring and crisis intervention for social media users and has been seen to have an important social impact.

Social Support and Help-Seeking Among Suicide Bereaved: A Study With Italian Survivors

BACKGROUND

Research over how suicide survivors approach services is limited. Aims: This cross-sectional study explores the psychological state and perceived social support of Italian survivors, including those who have not sought for help, and investigates differences for gender or kinship with the departed. Methods: Rule-based system (RBS) analyses identified relationships between social support and reported formal/informal help-seeking behavior. One-hundred thirty-two (103F; 27M) suicide survivors (53 having never sought for support) answered an anonymous online survey. Life satisfaction, wellbeing, perceived social support, suicidal ideation and formal/informal help-seeking were investigated. Results: RBS analysis identified different help-seeking behaviors: survivors lacking social support may avoid reaching a psychologist and prefer GPs, look for advice in online forums and rely on people out of their narrower network such as co-workers. Conclusion: These unique study's results offer insight to identify which specific areas would be fruitful to investigate while assessing social support in bereaved individuals.

Ethical Applications of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence From Health Research on Veterans

Background

Despite widespread agreement that artificial intelligence (AI) offers significant benefits for individuals and society at large, there are also serious challenges to overcome with respect to its governance. Recent policymaking has focused on establishing principles for the trustworthy use of AI. Adhering to these principles is especially important for ensuring that the development and application of AI raises economic and social welfare, including among vulnerable groups and veterans.

Objective

We explore the newly developed principles around trustworthy AI and how they can be readily applied at scale to vulnerable groups that are potentially less likely to benefit from technological advances.

Methods

Using the US Department of Veterans Affairs as a case study, we explore the principles of trustworthy AI that are of particular interest for vulnerable groups and veterans.

Results

We focus on three principles: (1) designing, developing, acquiring, and using AI so that the benefits of its use significantly outweigh the risks and the risks are assessed and managed; (2) ensuring that the application of AI occurs in well-defined domains and is accurate, effective, and fit for the intended purposes; and (3) ensuring that the operations and outcomes of AI applications are sufficiently interpretable and understandable by all subject matter experts, users, and others.

Conclusions

These principles and applications apply more generally to vulnerable groups, and adherence to them can allow the VA and other organizations to continue modernizing their technology governance, leveraging the gains of AI while simultaneously managing its risks.

Characterization of time-variant and time-invariant assessment of suicidality on Reddit using C-SSRS

Suicide is the 10th leading cause of death in the U.S (1999-2019). However, predicting when someone will attempt suicide has been nearly impossible. In the modern world, many individuals suffering from mental illness seek emotional support and advice on well-known and easily-accessible social media platforms such as Reddit. While prior artificial intelligence research has demonstrated the ability to extract valuable information from social media on suicidal thoughts and behaviors, these efforts have not considered both severity and temporality of risk. The insights made possible by access to such data have enormous clinical potential-most dramatically envisioned as a trigger to employ timely and targeted interventions (i.e., voluntary and involuntary psychiatric hospitalization) to save lives. In this work, we address this knowledge gap by developing deep learning algorithms to assess suicide risk in terms of severity and temporality from Reddit data based on the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS). In particular, we employ two deep learning approaches: time-variant and time-invariant modeling, for user-level suicide risk assessment, and evaluate their performance against a clinician-adjudicated gold standard Reddit corpus annotated based on the C-SSRS. Our results suggest that the time-variant approach outperforms the time-invariant method in the assessment of suicide-related ideations and supportive behaviors (AUC:0.78), while the time-invariant model performed better in predicting suicide-related behaviors and suicide attempt (AUC:0.64). The proposed approach can be integrated with clinical diagnostic interviews for improving suicide risk assessments.

Digital Mental Health Challenges and the Horizon Ahead for Solutions

The demand outstripping supply of mental health resources during the COVID-19 pandemic presents opportunities for digital technology tools to fill this new gap and, in the process, demonstrate capabilities to increase their effectiveness and efficiency. However, technology-enabled services have faced challenges in being sustainably implemented despite showing promising outcomes in efficacy trials since the early 2000s. The ongoing failure of these implementations has been addressed in reconceptualized models and frameworks, along with various efforts to branch out among disparate developers and clinical researchers to provide them with a key for furthering evaluative research. However, the limitations of traditional research methods in dealing with the complexities of mental health care warrant a diversified approach. The crux of the challenges of digital mental health implementation is the efficacy and evaluation of existing studies. Web-based interventions are increasingly used during the pandemic, allowing for affordable access to psychological therapies. However, a lagging infrastructure and skill base has limited the application of digital solutions in mental health care. Methodologies need to be converged owing to the rapid development of digital technologies that have outpaced the evaluation of rigorous digital mental health interventions and strategies to prevent mental illness. The functions and implications of human-computer interaction require a better understanding to overcome engagement barriers, especially with predictive technologies. Explainable artificial intelligence is being incorporated into digital mental health implementation to obtain positive and responsible outcomes. Investment in digital platforms and associated apps for real-time screening, tracking, and treatment offer the promise of cost-effectiveness in vulnerable populations. Although machine learning has been limited by study conduct and reporting methods, the increasing use of unstructured data has strengthened its potential. Early evidence suggests that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages of incrementing such technology. The limitations of an evidence-based approach require better integration of decision support tools to guide policymakers with digital mental health implementation. There is a complex range of issues with effectiveness, equity, access, and ethics (eg, privacy, confidentiality, fairness, transparency, reproducibility, and accountability), which warrant resolution. Evidence-informed policies, development of eminent digital products and services, and skills to use and maintain these solutions are required. Studies need to focus on developing digital platforms with explainable artificial intelligence-based apps to enhance resilience and guide the treatment decisions of mental health practitioners. Investments in digital mental health should ensure their safety and workability. End users should encourage the use of innovative methods to encourage developers to effectively evaluate their products and services and to render them a worthwhile investment. Technology-enabled services in a hybrid model of care are most likely to be effective (eg, specialists using these services among vulnerable, at-risk populations but not severe cases of mental ill health).

Teasing out Artificial Intelligence in Medicine: An Ethical Critique of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Medicine

The rapid adoption and implementation of artificial intelligence in medicine creates an ontologically distinct situation from prior care models. There are both potential advantages and disadvantages with such technology in advancing the interests of patients, with resultant ontological and epistemic concerns for physicians and patients relating to the instatiation of AI as a dependent, semi- or fully-autonomous agent in the encounter. The concept of libertarian paternalism potentially exercised by AI (and those who control it) has created challenges to conventional assessments of patient and physician autonomy. The unclear legal relationship between AI and its users cannot be settled presently, an progress in AI and its implementation in patient care will necessitate an iterative discourse to preserve humanitarian concerns in future models of care. This paper proposes that physicians should neither uncritically accept nor unreasonably resist developments in AI but must actively engage and contribute to the discourse, since AI will affect their roles and the nature of their work. One's moral imaginative capacity must be engaged in the questions of beneficence, autonomy, and justice of AI and whether its integration in healthcare has the potential to augment or interfere with the ends of medical practice.

Prediction of suicide among 372,813 individuals under medical check-up

BACKGROUND

Suicide is a serious social and public health problem. Social stigma and prejudice reduce the accessibility of mental health care services for high-risk groups, resulting in them not receiving interventions and committing suicide. A suicide prediction model is necessary to identify high-risk groups in the general population.

METHODS

We used national medical check-up data from 2009 to 2015 in Korea. The latest medical check-up data for each subject was set as an index point. Analysis was undertaken for an overall follow-up period (index point to the final tracking period) as well as for a one-year follow-up period. The training set was cross-validated fivefold. The predictive model was trained using a random forest algorithm, and its performance was measured using a separate test set not included in the training.

RESULTS

The analysis covered 372,813 individuals, with an average (SD) overall follow-up duration of 1.52 (1.52) years. When we predicted suicide during the overall follow-up period, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.849, sensitivity was 0.817, and specificity was 0.754. The performance of the predicted suicide risk model for one year from the index point was AUC 0.818, sensitivity 0.788, and specificity 0.657.

CONCLUSIONS

This is probably the first suicide predictive model using machine learning based on medical check-up data from the general population. It could be used to screen high-risk suicidal groups from the population through routine medical check-ups. Future studies may test preventive interventions such as exercise and alcohol in these high-risk groups.

Can machine-learning methods really help predict suicide?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In recent years there has been interest in the use of machine learning in suicide research in reaction to the failure of traditional statistical methods to produce clinically useful models of future suicide. The current review summarizes recent prediction studies in the suicide literature including those using machine learning approaches to understand what value these novel approaches add.

RECENT FINDINGS

Studies using machine learning to predict suicide deaths report area under the curve that are only modestly greater than, and sensitivities that are equal to, those reported in studies using more conventional predictive methods. Positive predictive value remains around 1% among the cohort studies with a base rate that was not inflated by case-control methodology.

SUMMARY

Machine learning or artificial intelligence may afford opportunities in mental health research and in the clinical care of suicidal patients. However, application of such techniques should be carefully considered to avoid repeating the mistakes of existing methodologies. Prediction studies using machine-learning methods have yet to make a major contribution to our understanding of the field and are unproven as clinically useful tools.

An Autoencoder and Machine Learning Model to Predict Suicidal Ideation with Brain Structural Imaging

It is estimated that at least one million people die by suicide every year, showing the importance of suicide prevention and detection. In this study, an autoencoder and machine learning model was employed to predict people with suicidal ideation based on their structural brain imaging. The subjects in our generalized q-sampling imaging (GQI) dataset consisted of three groups: 41 depressive patients with suicidal ideation (SI), 54 depressive patients without suicidal thoughts (NS), and 58 healthy controls (HC). In the GQI dataset, indices of generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA), isotropic values of the orientation distribution function (ISO), and normalized quantitative anisotropy (NQA) were separately trained in different machine learning models. A convolutional neural network (CNN)-based autoencoder model, the supervised machine learning algorithm extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and logistic regression (LR) were used to discriminate SI subjects from NS and HC subjects. After five-fold cross validation, separate data were tested to obtain the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve of each result. Our results showed that the best pattern of structure across multiple brain locations can classify suicidal ideates from NS and HC with a prediction accuracy of 85%, a specificity of 100% and a sensitivity of 75%. The algorithms developed here might provide an objective tool to help identify suicidal ideation risk among depressed patients alongside clinical assessment.

Suicide on Facebook-the tales of unnoticed departure in Bangladesh

Facebook has transformed social communication and offers the opportunity to share personal thoughts to people including suicide ideas, plans and attempts. Suicide after Facebook posts has been reported in different parts of the world and it has become a potential area of research for suicide prevention. The analysis of Facebook posts prior to suicide or Facebook live streaming may help in understanding the etiological factors, patterns of communication and possible prevention approaches for a particular community. However, there is a dearth of evidence about suicide incidents after Facebook posts and Facebook live streaming in low and middle-income countries. This study aims to explore the trends and phenomena of suicide after Facebook posts and live streaming in Bangladesh. We conducted an online search using the Google, Facebook and five daily online newspaper archives from 15th August to 15th September 2019. Two research assistants independently conducted the initial searching to find out people who committed suicide after Facebook posts or live streamed suicide in Bangladesh and documented 21 cases. After further evaluation of each of the 21 cases we confirmed 19 cases that met the selection criteria. All of them were under 35-years of age. We observed sucide after Facebook posts were more common in male(78%) e and students. Hanging was the most frequently used method of suicide followed by poisoning. Their Facebook posts and livestream videos indicated relationship problems, academic stress and mental disorders were the common stressors for their suicide. This study lays the foundation for the future researchers to work on suicidal posts on Facebook in Bangladesh and develop culture-specific, real-time suicide preventive systems using a social media platform.