Opioid Overdose Surveillance : Improving Data to Inform Action

Opioid use, prescribing and fatal overdose patterns among racial/ethnic minorities in the United States: A scoping review and conceptual risk environment model

ISSUES

To date, there has been no synthesis of research addressing the scale and nuances of the opioid epidemic in racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States that considers the independent and joint impacts of dynamics such as structural disadvantage, provider bias, health literacy, cultural norms and various other risk factors.

APPROACH

Using the "risk environment" framework, we conducted a scoping review on PubMed, Embase and Google Scholar of peer-reviewed literature and governmental reports published between January 2000 and February 2024 on the nature and scale of opioid use, opioid prescribing patterns, and fatal overdoses among racial/ethnic minorities in the United States, while also examining macro, meso and individual-level risk factors.

KEY FINDINGS

Results from this review illuminate a growing, but fragmented, literature lacking standardisation in racial/ethnic classification and case reporting, specifically in regards to Indigenous and Asian subpopulations. This literature broadly illustrates racial/ethnic minorities' increasing nonmedical use of opioids, heightened burdens of fatal overdoses, specifically in relation to polydrug use and synthetic opioids, with notable elevations among Black/Latino subgroups, in addition uneven opioid prescribing patterns. Moreover, the literature implicates a variety of unique risk environments corresponding to dynamics such as residential segregation, provider bias, overpolicing, acculturative stress, patient distrust, and limited access to mental health care services and drug treatment resources, including medications for opioid use disorder.

IMPLICATIONS

There has been a lack of rigorous, targeted study on racial/ethnic minorities who use opioids, but evidence highlights burgeoning increases in usage, especially polydrug/synthetic opioid use, and disparities in prescriptions and fatal overdose risk-phenomena tied to multi-level forms of entrenched disenfranchisement.

CONCLUSION

There is a need for further research on the complex, overlapping risk environments of racial/ethnic minorities who use opioids, including deeper inclusion of Indigenous and Asian individuals, and efforts to generate greater methodological synergies in population classification and reporting guidelines.

Evaluation of in-house drug evidence testing by King County Medical Examiner's Office in "real-time" fatal overdose surveillance

With the escalating overdose epidemic, many surveillance efforts have appeared. In 2018, King County Medical Examiner's Office (KCMEO) initiated a fatal overdose surveillance project aimed at expediting death certification and disseminating timely information. In this project, KCMEO investigators collected items of evidence of drug use from overdose death scenes, which were tested by five in-house methods, four using handheld devices: TruNarc Raman spectrometer, with and without the manufacture's H-Kit, Rigaku ResQ Raman spectrometer, and MX908 mass spectrometer. The fifth in-house method used fentanyl-specific urine test strips. Results from in-house testing were compared with results from Washington State Patrol (WSP) Materials Analysis Laboratory. From 2019 to 2022, there were 4244 evidence items of drugs and paraphernalia collected from 1777 deaths scenes. A total of 7526 in-house tests were performed on collected specimens, and 2153 tests were performed by the WSP laboratory using standard analytical methods. The WSP results served as reference standards to calculate performance metrics of the in-house methods. Sensitivities, specificities, and predictive values ranged from good to poor depending on the method, drug, and evidence type. Certain drugs were often associated with specific evidence types. Acetaminophen was frequently found in combination with fentanyl. Fentanyl test strips gave good scores for detecting fentanyl; otherwise, in-house methods using handheld devices had poor performance scores with novel drugs and drugs diluted in mixtures. The results showed that in-house testing of drug evidence has value for medical examiner overdose surveillance, but it is resource intensive, and success depends on collaboration with forensic laboratories.

Effect of the Communities that HEAL intervention on receipt of behavioral therapies for opioid use disorder: A cluster randomized wait-list controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The U.S. opioid overdose crisis persists. Outpatient behavioral health services (BHS) are essential components of a comprehensive response to opioid use disorder and overdose fatalities. The Helping to End Addiction Long-Term® (HEALing) Communities Study developed the Communities That HEAL (CTH) intervention to reduce opioid overdose deaths in 67 communities in Kentucky, Ohio, New York, and Massachusetts through the implementation of evidence-based practices (EBPs), including BHS. This paper compares the rate of individuals receiving outpatient BHS in Wave 1 intervention communities (n = 34) to waitlisted Wave 2 communities (n = 33).

METHODS

Medicaid data included individuals ≥18 years of age receiving any of five BHS categories: intensive outpatient, outpatient, case management, peer support, and case management or peer support. Negative binomial regression models estimated the rate of receiving each BHS for Wave 1 and Wave 2. Effect modification analyses evaluated changes in the effect of the CTH intervention between Wave 1 and Wave 2 by research site, rurality, age, sex, and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

No significant differences were detected between intervention and waitlisted communities in the rate of individuals receiving any of the five BHS categories. None of the interaction effects used to test the effect modification were significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Several factors should be considered when interpreting results-no significant intervention effects were observed through Medicaid claims data, the best available data source but limited in terms of capturing individuals reached by the intervention. Also, the 12-month evaluation window may have been too brief to see improved outcomes considering the time required to stand-up BHS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trials.gov http://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov: Identifier: NCT04111939.

Leveraging the Full Continuum of Care to Prevent Opioid Use Disorder

Substance use disorder prevention programs are most effective when matched appropriately to the baseline risk of the population. Individuals who misuse opioids often have unique risk profiles different from those who use other substances such as alcohol or cannabis. However, most substance use prevention programs are geared toward universal audiences, neglecting key inflection points along the continuum of care. The HEAL Prevention Cooperative (HPC) is a unique cohort of research projects that represents a continuum of care, from community-level universal prevention to indicated prevention among older adolescents and young adults who are currently misusing opioids or other substances. This paper describes the theoretical basis for addressing opioid misuse and opioid use disorder across the prevention continuum, using examples from research projects in the HPC.

Combating the Opioid Crisis and Its National Security Threat Through CReDO: A Multidisciplinary Solution With Disaster Medicine Implications

For the first time in history, the United States surpassed 100 000 overdose-related deaths in a 12-month period, driven by synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. Also, for the first time, potential chemical weapons are readily available on the streets and the dark web. Opioids represent a rare trifecta, used for licit pain management, as an illicit drug of abuse, and with potential use as a weapon of terror. Community-based Response to Drug Overdose (CReDO) is an initiative to unite agencies, disciplines, government, and private partners in 1 coordinated opioid emergencies response plan under nationwide standards, and can be integrated into the disaster medicine discipline due to the risk of mass casualty incidents involving fentanyl or its derivatives. Attention to the opioid crisis through CReDO will save lives by promoting information sharing between disciplines, shortened response time to overdose clusters, community collaboration to identify criminal distribution networks, and holistic approaches to addiction.

Medical examiner response to the drug overdose epidemic in King County Washington: "Real-time" surveillance, data science, and applied forensic epidemiology

As the overdose epidemic overwhelmed medicolegal death investigation offices and toxicology laboratories, the King County Medical Examiner's Office responded with "real-time" fatal overdose surveillance to expedite death certification and information dissemination through assembling a team including a dedicated medicolegal death investigator, an information coordinator, and student interns. In-house testing of blood, urine, and drug evidence from scenes was performed using equipment and supplies purchased for surveillance. Collaboration with state laboratories allowed validation. Applied forensic epidemiology accelerated data dissemination. From 2010 to 2022, the epidemic claimed 5815 lives in King County; the last 4 years accounted for 47% of those deaths. After initiating the surveillance project, in-house testing was performed on blood from 2836 decedents, urine from 2807, and 4238 drug evidence items from 1775 death scenes. Time to complete death certificates decreased from weeks to months to hours to days. Overdose-specific information was distributed weekly to a network of law enforcement and public health agencies. As the surveillance project tracked the epidemic, fentanyl and methamphetamine became dominant and were associated with other indicators of social deterioration. In 2022, fentanyl was involved in 68% of 1021 overdose deaths. Homeless deaths increased sixfold; in 2022, 67% of 311 homeless deaths were due to overdose; fentanyl was involved in 49% and methamphetamine in 44%. Homicides increased 250%; in 2021, methamphetamine was positive in 35% of 149 homicides. The results are relevant to the value of rapid surveillance, its impact on standard operations, selection of cases requiring autopsy, and collaboration with other agencies in overdose prevention.

Using Natural Language Processing to Predict Fatal Drug Overdose From Autopsy Narrative Text: Algorithm Development and Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Fatal drug overdose surveillance informs prevention but is often delayed because of autopsy report processing and death certificate coding. Autopsy reports contain narrative text describing scene evidence and medical history (similar to preliminary death scene investigation reports) and may serve as early data sources for identifying fatal drug overdoses. To facilitate timely fatal overdose reporting, natural language processing was applied to narrative texts from autopsies.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a natural language processing-based model that predicts the likelihood that an autopsy report narrative describes an accidental or undetermined fatal drug overdose.

METHODS

Autopsy reports of all manners of death (2019-2021) were obtained from the Tennessee Office of the State Chief Medical Examiner. The text was extracted from autopsy reports (PDFs) using optical character recognition. Three common narrative text sections were identified, concatenated, and preprocessed (bag-of-words) using term frequency-inverse document frequency scoring. Logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, and gradient boosted tree classifiers were developed and validated. Models were trained and calibrated using autopsies from 2019 to 2020 and tested using those from 2021. Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic, precision, recall, F1-score, and F2-score (prioritizes recall over precision). Calibration was performed using logistic regression (Platt scaling) and evaluated using the Spiegelhalter z test. Shapley additive explanations values were generated for models compatible with this method. In a post hoc subgroup analysis of the random forest classifier, model discrimination was evaluated by forensic center, race, age, sex, and education level.

RESULTS

A total of 17,342 autopsies (n=5934, 34.22% cases) were used for model development and validation. The training set included 10,215 autopsies (n=3342, 32.72% cases), the calibration set included 538 autopsies (n=183, 34.01% cases), and the test set included 6589 autopsies (n=2409, 36.56% cases). The vocabulary set contained 4002 terms. All models showed excellent performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic ≥0.95, precision ≥0.94, recall ≥0.92, F1-score ≥0.94, and F2-score ≥0.92). The SVM and random forest classifiers achieved the highest F2-scores (0.948 and 0.947, respectively). The logistic regression and random forest were calibrated (P=.95 and P=.85, respectively), whereas the SVM and gradient boosted tree classifiers were miscalibrated (P=.03 and P<.001, respectively). "Fentanyl" and "accident" had the highest Shapley additive explanations values. Post hoc subgroup analyses revealed lower F2-scores for autopsies from forensic centers D and E. Lower F2-score were observed for the American Indian, Asian, ≤14 years, and ≥65 years subgroups, but larger sample sizes are needed to validate these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The random forest classifier may be suitable for identifying potential accidental and undetermined fatal overdose autopsies. Further validation studies should be conducted to ensure early detection of accidental and undetermined fatal drug overdoses across all subgroups.

Evaluation of "Real-Time" Fatal Drug Overdose Surveillance by King County Medical Examiner's Office, Seattle, Washington

ABSTRACT

To address the challenges in monitoring the continuously accelerating drug overdose epidemic, the King County Medical Examiner's Office in Seattle, Washington, instituted a "real-time" fatal drug overdose surveillance project, depending on scene investigations, autopsy findings, and in-house testing of blood, urine, and drug evidence collected from death scenes. Validation of the project's rapid death certification methodology from 2019 through 2021 was performed at the following 3 levels: blood testing, urine testing, and death certification, and for the following 4 drugs: fentanyl, opiate, methamphetamine, and cocaine. For blood testing, sensitivity ranged from 90% to 99%, and specificity ranged from 86% to 97%. For urine testing, sensitivity ranged from 91% to 92%, and specificity ranged from 87% to 97%. The positive predictive value for cocaine was poor for both blood testing (57%) and urine testing (72%). Of 1034 deaths, 807 were certified as overdose by rapid methodology, and 803 (99.5%) were confirmed by formal toxicology results. Manners of death were changed from accident to natural in 3 of 1034 cases (0.29%). Results of this study indicate that the rapid overdose surveillance methodology described in this study offers benefits to families and provides useful, timely information for responding law enforcement and public health agencies.