Exploring a Hidden Epidemic: Drowning Among Adults Aged 65 Years and Older

Burden of unintentional drowning in Indonesia: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

INTRODUCTION

A high burden of unintentional fatal drowning has been reported in low- and middle-income countries. However, little is known about unintentional drowning in Indonesia.

METHODS

This population-based retrospective cohort study analysed unintentional drowning data for Indonesia sourced from The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Estimates of trends, mortality rates, incidence rates, years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability adjusted life years were generated.

RESULTS

A decline in unintentional drowning mortality rates was observed, with an average annual mortality rate of 2.58/100 000. Males were 1.81 (95% CI 1.79 to 1.84) times more likely than females to unintentionally drown. Average annual mortality rates were highest among the under-5 age group (9.67/100 000) and 70 and over (5.71/100 000 for males; 5.14/100 000 for females). Distributions of drowning deaths vary depending on region, with mortality rates higher in Papua, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, Sumatra and Nusa Tenggara regions.

DISCUSSION

While a decline in drowning mortality rates in Indonesia was identified between 2005 and 2019, mortality rates for unintentional drowning remained high among children under 5 years, the elderly population and those residing in Papua, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, Sumatra and Nusa Tenggara, warranting further focused attention.

CONCLUSION

A downward trend in the rate of unintentional drowning deaths in Indonesia is observed from 2005 onwards, with risk variation based on age, gender and region. The findings highlight the importance of addressing drowning as a cause of premature mortality and health system burden in Indonesia, including through enhancing drowning data collection systems and identifying drowning risk factors.

Trends in injury-related mortality among residents of Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021: an age-period-cohort analysis

Objective

We investigated the temporal trends and examined age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects of injury-related deaths among residents in Jiangsu to provide evidence for future injury prevention.

Methods

This study included 406,936 injury deaths from the Jiangsu provincial population death registration system. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) was analyzed using joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models were generated to explore the effects of age, period, and birth cohort effects on mortality risk.

Results

ASMRs for all injuries (AAPC = -2.3%), road traffic accidents (AAPC = -5.3%), suicide (AAPC = -3.8%), and drowning (AAPC = -3.9%) showed a downward trend during 2012-2021(all p < 0.05), while unintentional falls showed an upward trend (AAPC = 5.1%, p < 0.05). From 2012 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for four primary types of injuries consistently exhibited higher among males compared to females, with rural regions displaying higher ASMRs than urban areas. Trends in ASMRs for road traffic accidents, drowning, and unintentional falls by sex and urban/rural areas were consistent with overall trends. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were identified in the trends of injury-related deaths for both sexes in Jiangsu. The age effect showed that the highest age effect for injury-related deaths was for the ages of 85 years and above, except for suicide, which was for the ages 80-84 years. Between 2012 and 2021, the period effect on road traffic accidents declined, while that on accidental falls increased. Initially, the period effect on suicide decreased but then rose, peaking in 2012 with a Relative Risk (RR) of 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04-1.19). Similarly, the period effect on drowning initially declined before rising, with the highest effect observed in 2013, at an RR of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.07-1.19). The highest cohort effects for road traffic accidents were observed in the 1957-1961 group, for accidental falls in the 1952-1956 group, and for both drowning and suicide in the 1927-1931 group.

Conclusion

The mortality rate of unintentional falls has been increasing. Older adults are at high risk for the four leading injuries. The improvements in mortality rates can be attributed to advancements in education, urbanization, and the promulgation and implementation of laws and policies.

The effect of the 'Swim Reaper' program on water safety awareness, drowning mortality and morbidity among males aged 15-34 years in Aotearoa, New Zealand

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

To increase water safety awareness among young males New Zealand introduced the Swim Reaper program in 2016. The program ran annually over summer and in 2018/19 an evaluation was conducted. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of the 2018/19 Swim Reaper social media-based campaign on self-reported water safety awareness and identify changes in fatal and nonfatal drowning rates for New Zealand resident males aged 15-34 years before and after the 2016 Swim Reaper program.

METHODS

Online surveys pre (December-2018) and post (February-March-2019) Swim Reaper campaign were used to estimate water safety awareness post-campaign relative to pre-campaign using negative binomial regression adjusted for potential confounders. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, adjusted for seasonality, explored changes in drowning mortality, hospital admissions and Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) claims pre and post program introduction (2016).

RESULTS

A total of 518 males responded (50.6% post-campaign). There were significant improvements (post vs. pre-campaign) in self-reported water safety awareness. ITS analysis showed a reduction in drowning related hospital admissions post relative to pre-program (RR = 0.47; [95%CI: 0.24-0.90]; p = 0.02).

DISCUSSION

Young males are an at-risk cohort for drowning and creating behavior change among this group can be challenging. Using a unique, humor-based approach the Swim Reaper program appears to be having some impact on self-reported water safety behaviors, as well as unintentional drowning-related hospitalization rates. Further evaluation, more clearly linked to campaign themes, is required to ascertain direct impact of the program.

CONCLUSION

The novelty and reach of the campaign within the context of a prevailing downward trend in drownings may provide support for social media-based programs targeting this hard-to-reach demographic.

Examining the relationship between heatwaves and fatal drowning: a case study from Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND

Globally, drowning is a leading cause of injury-related harm, which is heavily impacted by environmental conditions. In Australia, fatal unintentional drowning peaks in summer, yet the impact of prolonged periods of hot weather (heatwave) on fatal drowning has not previously been explored.

METHODS

Using a case-crossover approach, we examined the difference in drowning risk between heatwave and non-heatwave days for the Australian state of Queensland from 2010 to 2019. Heatwave data, measured by the excess heat factor, were acquired from the Bureau of Meteorology. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated by sex, age of drowning decedent, category of drowning incident (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes) and heatwave severity. Excess drowning mortality during heatwaves was also calculated.

RESULTS

Analyses reveal increased fatal drowning risk during heatwave for males (IRR 1.22, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.61), people aged 65+ years (IRR 1.36, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.24), unintentional drowning (IRR 1.28, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.69) and during severe heatwaves (IRR 1.26, 95% CI0.88 to 1.82). There were 13 excess drowning deaths due to heatwave over the study period.

DISCUSSION

The findings confirm an increased risk of fatal drowning during heatwaves. With increased likelihood and severity of heatwaves, this information should be used to inform drowning prevention, in particular the timing of public awareness campaigns and patrolling of supervised aquatic locations.

CONCLUSIONS

Water safety and patrolling organisations, as well as first responders, need to prepare for more drowning deaths during heatwave conditions. In addition, drowning prevention education ahead of heatwaves is needed for recreational swimmers, and older people, particularly those with comorbidities which may be further exacerbated by a heatwave.

Burden of fatal drowning in California, 2005-2019

OBJECTIVE

To characterise risk factors for fatal drowning in California, USA to inform priorities for prevention, policy and research.

METHODS

This retrospective population-based epidemiological review of death certificate data evaluated fatal drowning events in California from 2005 to 2019. Unintentional, intentional, and undetermined drowning deaths and rates were described by person (age, sex, race) and context-based variables (region and body of water).

RESULTS

California's fatal drowning rate was 1.48 per 100 000 population (n=9237). Highest total fatal drowning rates occurred in the lower population density northern regions, among older adults (75-84 years: 2.54 per 100 000 population; 85+: 3.47 per 100 000 population) and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons (2.84 per 100 000 population). Male drowning deaths occurred at 2.7 times the rate of females; drowning deaths occurred mainly in swimming pools (27%), rivers/canals (22.4%) and coastal waters (20.2%). The intentional fatal drowning rate increased 89% during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

California's overall fatal drowning rate was similar to the rest of the USA but differed among subpopulations. These divergences from national data, along with regional differences in drowning population and context-related characteristics, underscore the need for state and regional level analyses to inform drowning prevention policy, programmes and research.

Fatal drowning in Indonesia: understanding knowledge gaps through a scoping review

Little is known about unintentional drowning deaths in Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous and largest archipelagic country. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology and risk factors of unintentional drowning in Indonesia and explore existing health promotion and drowning prevention approaches in Indonesia within a socio-ecological health promotion framework. A scoping review, guided by PRISMA-ScR, was conducted to locate peer-reviewed studies and government reports/policy documents published until May 2023, in English or Indonesian language, using MEDLINE (Ovid), CINAHL, Informit, PsycINFO (ProQuest), Scopus, SafetyLit, BioMed Central and Google Scholar, Indonesian journal databases (Sinta, Garuda) and government agencies websites around the terms: drown, swim, flood, hurricane, cyclone, disaster, water rescue and maritime/boat safety. This review identified 32 papers. However, a paucity of information on unintentional drowning rates, risk factors and prevention in Indonesia was noted. The unavailability of a coordinated national drowning data collection system in Indonesia, from which national and subnational subcategory data can be collected, underlines the possibility of under-representation of drowning mortality. The association between various exposures and drowning incidents has not been fully investigated. An over-reliance on individual-focused, behaviour-based, preventive measures was observed. These findings highlight the need for improving drowning surveillance to ensure the availability and reliability of drowning data; and strengthening research to understand the risk factors for drowning and delivery of drowning prevention programs. Further policy development and research focusing on health promotion approaches that reflect a socio-ecological approach to drowning prevention in Indonesia is imperative.

Lessons learned through the 20-year development of a national fatal drowning database in Australia

BACKGROUND

Co-ordinated, evidence-based policy and programmatic efforts are needed to respond to complex drowning prevention problems. Comprehensive, current, and robust data are vital for agenda setting, burden and risk factor identification, intervention design and evaluation, as well as setting policy. We aim to record methods used in, and identify impacts of, the development of a national fatal drowning database (NFDD) in Australia, including lessons learned across research, policy, and practice.

METHODS

We employ a case study method using process mapping and document review to explore the evolution, drivers and impacts of the NFDD. We analyse methodological approaches including those relating to data definitions, drowning case collection, and management, as well as tracking the various outputs of the NFDD. We describe a development timeline that presents impact of drowning prevention policy, and research agendas on database development, and research investments more specifically.

RESULTS

Our study identified that the collected variables grew 20-fold from 2002 to 2022, reaching 259 variables, and 5,692 unique cases of fatal drowning. The NFDD employs data triangulation methodology, combining keyword and targeted searches of coronial files, media report monitoring, and organisational data provision. Database development is influenced by the Australia Water Safety Strategy, policymaker and practitioner-initiated research agendas, and identification of knowledge gaps. We identified numerous outputs spanning publications, media, intervention development, and legislative submissions.

CONCLUSION

A comprehensive and robust NFDD informed by policymaker and practitioner input can enhance surveillance, policy, and intervention development for drowning prevention. Employing mixed data collection and validation methods can supplement weaknesses in official data sources. There is a need for the NFDD to continue to evolve in its application while maintaining rigorous case identification and data quality assurance processes. Despite significant investment, the outputs and influence on drowning prevention practice in Australia has been extremely valuable and contributed to sizeable reductions in Australia's fatal drowning rate.

A Review of Interventions for Drowning Prevention Among Adults

Adult drowning is a complex and multifactorial public health challenge requiring community, national and global efforts to mitigate impacts. This study updates the evidence base for public health interventions that address adult fatal and non-fatal drowning. A systematic review was undertaken of the peer-reviewed literature for English-language primary studies published between 2011 and 2021describing a drowning intervention with adults. Twenty-two studies were included. Most studies (n = 16) were conducted in high-income countries. Yearly trends in drowning prevention intervention publications were analysed with 2015 (n = 6) the peak publishing year. Over half of the study designs were pre-post (n = 15). Intervention duration ranged from 4 hours to 11 years. Ten studies described either behaviour change theory or formative evaluation to inform design. Thirteen studies targeted interventions at a population level, seven at a group level and two at individual level. Studies identified a range of prevention strategies, categorised as behavioural (n = 9) (e.g., swimming lessons), socio-ecological (n = 8) (e.g., mandatory personal flotation devices) and mixed (n = 5) (e.g., awareness campaign and barriers to prevent access to water). A range of outcomes were described including changes in awareness, water safety knowledge, attitudes, water safety behaviours and skills, environmental, policy and regulation changes and drowning rates. Findings indicate a small but important increase in the evaluation and publication of effective interventions to prevent adult drowning. The complexity of the issues surrounding drowning requires multi-strategy and context -specific adult focused prevention interventions. Contemporary evidence that identifies effective interventions that contribute to prevention efforts is an essential first step in addressing the challenge.

Assessing variations in estimates of drowning mortality in Turkey from 2013 to 2019

Introduction

Drowning is an under-recognised public health threat and a leading cause of injury-related mortality and morbidity. However, in many countries, including Turkey, limited data impair understanding of drowning burden and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study drowning estimates (defined using International Classification of Diseases [ICD] codes W65–74) do not include flood-related deaths (X38) and water transportation related drownings (V90, V92). A lack of accessible and reliable country-level data impacts a country’s ability to develop appropriate drowning prevention interventions and measure efficacy. This retrospective population-based study aimed to explore differences between two datasets in fatal drowning in Turkey between 2013 and 2019.

Methods

National, all-age data on fatal drownings (restrictive definition: ICD-10 codes W65–74) were sourced from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In addition, a broader definition of drowning including water transport, flood-related deaths and drowning due to undetermined intent (ICD-10 codes W65–74, V90, V92, X38, Y21, T751) were sourced from TurkStat. Numeric and percentage differences in number of drowning deaths were calculated overall and by sex, age group and death year. Chi square (p < 0.05) and relative risk (95% confidence intervals) using crude drowning rates per 100,000 population were also calculated for TurkStat data.

Results

From 2013 to 2019, TurkStat reported a total of 5004 drowning deaths (coded W65–74) were reported, compared to 5252 (5% difference; n = 248) using the broader definition. A restrictive definition underreported drowning most significantly in females (9.5%; n = 97), 5–9 year-olds (8.9%; n = 31) and in the 2015 calendar year (30.2%; n = 226). Males accounted for 78.8% of drowning in Turkey, with females significantly (p < 0.001) more at risk under 10 years of age (0–4 years X² = 67.9; 5–9 years X² = 23.9) and aged 65+ years (X² = 29.7). GBD data overestimated a restrictive definition of drowning by 3.2% overall (7.6% for females, 52.5% for 0–4 year-olds) and underreported drowning for 65+ year-olds by 17% when compared to TurkStat restrictive definition of drowning.

Conclusions

Although a restrictive definition of drowning doesn’t greatly impact estimates at a population level in Turkey, there are variations. This highlights the importance of accurate country-level drowning data to guide decision making for prevention.

Nonfatal drowning-related hospitalizations and associated healthcare expenditure in India: An analysis of nationally representative survey data

BACKGROUND

Drowning is a global public health challenge, with significant burden in low- and middle-income countries. There are few studies exploring nonfatal drowning, including the economic and social impacts. This study aimed to quantify unintentional drowning-related hospitalization in India and associated healthcare expenditure.

METHOD

Unit level data on unintentional drowning-related hospitalization were obtained from the 75th rounds of the National Sample Survey of Indian households conducted in 2018. The outcome variables were indices of health care cost such as out of pocket expenditure (OOPE), health care burden (HCB), catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), impoverishment, and hardship financing. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis were conducted after adjusting for inflation using the pharmaceutical price index for December 2020. The association of socio-demographic characteristics with the outcome variable was reported as relative risk with 95% CI and expenditure reported in Indian Rupees (INR) and United States dollars (USD).

RESULTS

174 respondents reported drowning-related hospitalization (a crude rate of 15.91-31.34 hospitalizations per 100,000 population). Proportionately, more males (63.4%), persons aged 21-50 years (44.9%) and rural dwelling respondents (69.9%) were hospitalized. Drowning-related hospitalization costs on average INR25,421 ($345.11USD) per person per drowning incident. Costs were higher among older respondents, females, urban respondents, and longer lengths of hospital stays. About 14.4% of respondents reported hardship financing as a result of treatment costs and 9.0% of households reported pushed below the poverty line when reporting drowning-related hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Drowning can be an economically catastrophic injury, especially for those already impacted by poverty. Drowning is a significant public health problem in India. Investment in drowning prevention program will reduce hospitalization and economic burden.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

This study provides support for investment in drowning prevention in India, including a need to ensure drowning prevention interventions address the determinants of health across the lifespan.

Drowning in the Eastern Mediterranean region: a systematic literature review of the epidemiology, risk factors and strategies for prevention

INTRODUCTION

Globally, drowning is a significant cause of preventable mortality and morbidity. The Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) comprises 22 countries of extreme disparity in income and is a region impacted by conflict and migration. We systematically review literature published on drowning in the EMR.

METHODS

Peer-reviewed literature (limited to original research) was identified using Embase, PubMed, Scopus, SportsDiscus, and Web of Science databases. Literature was independently dual screened at title/abstract and full text stages with dual data extraction (20% of included studies). Studies were included if they reported epidemiology, risk/protective factors and/or prevention strategies for drowning (unintentional and intentional; fatal and non-fatal) of residents, tourists or migrants in the EMR. Literature was assessed against the [Australian] National Health and Medical Research Council's Levels of Evidence.

RESULTS

Seventy-two studies were included in this review (epidemiology 68 studies; risk/protective factor 13 studies; prevention strategies 19 studies). Iran (n = 27), Saudia Arabia (n = 11) and Pakistan (n = 10) recorded the largest number of dedicated studies. Studies predominately focused on unintentional drowning. Ninety-two percent of included studies (n = 66) were ranked as being low evidence (level IV). The majority of studies explored drowning among children and adolescents (0-19 years). All-age fatal drowning rates varied from a low of 0.48 per 100,000 (United Arab Emirates; 2002; Ministry of Health death registry data) to a high of 18.5 per 100,000 (Egypt; 2014-15; WHO mortality database). Commonly identified risk factors included being male, young age, submersion time and resident status. Common prevention strategies public education, lifeguard supervision, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

DISCUSSION

Gaps in understanding of drowning burden in some countries within the region, as well as region-wide risk factor identification for adult drowning, intentional and migration-related drowning, impair the ability of nations to advance drowning prevention. There is a need for investment in implementation and evaluation of drowning prevention interventions in the EMR.

CONCLUSION

Drowning is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity in the EMR. The recent UN declaration on global drowning prevention may provide the impetus to invest in drowning prevention research, policy, and advocacy with the aim of reducing drowning-related harms in the EMR.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registration number: # CRD42021271215 .

Pre-Existing Medical Conditions: A Systematic Literature Review of a Silent Contributor to Adult Drowning

Medical conditions can increase drowning risk. No prior study has systematically reviewed the published evidence globally regarding medical conditions and drowning risk for adults. MEDLINE (Ovid), PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, PsycINFO (ProQuest) and SPORTDiscus databases were searched for original research published between 1 January 2005 and 31 October 2021 that reported adult (≥15 years) fatal or non-fatal drowning of all intents and pre-existing medical conditions. Conditions were grouped into the relevant International Classifications of Diseases (ICD) codes. Eighty-three studies were included (85.5% high-income countries; 38.6% East Asia and Pacific region; 75.9% evidence level III-3). Diseases of the nervous system (n = 32 studies; 38.6%), mental and behavioural conditions (n = 31; 37.3%) and diseases of the circulatory system (n = 25; 30.1%) were the most common categories of conditions. Epilepsy was found to increase the relative risk of drowning by 3.8 to 82 times, with suggested preventive approaches regarding supervised bathing or showering. Drowning is a common suicide method for those with schizophrenia, psychotic disorders and dementia. Review findings indicate people with pre-existing medical conditions drown, yet relatively few studies have documented the risk. There is a need for further population-level research to more accurately quantify drowning risk for pre-existing medical conditions in adults, as well as implementing and evaluating population-level attributable risk and prevention strategies.

Trends in drowning mortality in Portugal from 1992 to 2019: comparing Global Burden of Disease and national data

INTRODUCTION

Imprecise data systems hinder understanding of drowning burden, even in high-income countries like Portugal, that have a well-implemented death certificate system. Consequently, national studies on drowning mortality are scarce. We aimed to explore drowning mortality in Portugal using national data and to compare these to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) for 1992-2019, using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 and ICD-10 codes, by sex, age group and cause (unintentional; water transport and intentional). GBD unintentional drowning data were obtained online. Age-standardised drowning rates were calculated and compared.

RESULTS

INE data showed 6057 drowning deaths, 4327 classified as unintentional (75.2% male; 36.7% 35-64 years; 31.5% 65+years; 15.2% 0-19 years). Following 2001, an increase in accidental drowning mortality and corresponding decrease in undetermined intent was observed, coincident with Portugal's ICD-10 implementation. GBD modelled estimates followed a downward trend at an overall rate of decrease of -0.41/decade (95% CI (-0.45 to -0.37); R² _adj=0.94; p<0.05). Conversely, INE data showed an increase in the rate of drowning deaths over the last decade (0.35/decade; 95% CI (-0.18 to 0.89)). GBD estimates were significantly different from the INE dataset (alpha=0.05), either underestimating as much as 0.567*INE in 1996 or overestimating as much as 1.473*INE in 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

While GBD mortality data estimates are valuable in the absence of routinely collected data, they smooth variations, concealing key advocacy opportunities. Investment in country-level drowning registries enables in-depth analysis of incident circumstances. Such data are essential to informing National Water Safety Plans.

"I never had a thought about drowning". Exploring water safety attitudes and practices among older adults in Western Australia

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to explore factors associated with drowning among older adults aged 65 years and over in Western Australia.

METHODS

This paper was concerned with illuminating older adults experience and perspectives of water safety and drowning prevention. The study used in-depth, semi-structured interviews (n = 15) to examine knowledge, attitudes, beliefs and behaviours. The interviews were analysed using a phenomenological hermeneutical interpretation whereby three steps were taken to identify common patterns of meaning from individual's lifeworld.

DISCUSSION

Interviews captured the voices of those who identified as swimmers and those who identified as nonswimmers and revealed nine constitutive patterns which support a central theme of life around water. This study provides insights into perceptions and experiences of water safety as individuals' age. The findings suggest individuals who perceived themselves as strong swimmers had a decreased perception of risk, while participants who self-identified as weak swimmers were more likely to avoid risks and modified their behaviour accordingly. Findings highlighted low water safety literacy and suggest that older people not only underestimate their drowning risk, but also lack an understanding of the risk factors for drowning. SO WHAT?: The findings from this study will have a direct impact on the development of a WA health promotion program to prevent drowning among older adults.