The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty

Minds and markets as complex systems: an emerging approach to cognitive economics

Cognitive economics is an emerging interdisciplinary field that uses the tools of cognitive science to study economic and social decision-making. Although most strains of cognitive economics share commitments to bridging levels of analysis (cognitive, behavioral, and systems) and embracing interdisciplinary approaches, we review a newer strand of cognitive economic thinking with a further commitment: conceptualizing minds and markets each as complex adaptive systems. We describe three ongoing research programs that strive toward these goals: (i) studying narratives as a cognitive and social representation used to guide decision-making; (ii) building cognitively informed agent-based models; and (iii) understanding markets as an extended mind - the Market Mind Hypothesis - analyzed using the concepts, methods, and tools of Coordination Dynamics.

Attributes That Influence Human Decision-Making in Complex Health Services: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Humans currently dominate decision-making in both clinical health services and complex health services such as health policy and health regulation. Many assumptions inherent in health service models today are underpinned by Ramsey's Expected Utility Theory, a prominent theory in the field of economics that is rooted in rationality. Rational, evidence-based metrics currently dominate the culture of decision-making in health policy and regulation. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, rational metrics alone may not suffice in making better policy and regulatory decisions. There are ethical and moral considerations and other complex factors that cannot be reduced to evidence-based rationality alone. Therefore, this scoping review was undertaken to identify and map the attributes that influence human decision-making in complex health services.

OBJECTIVE

The objective is to identify and map the attributes that influence human decision-making in complex health services that have been reported in the peer-reviewed literature.

METHODS

This scoping review was designed to answer the following research question: what attributes have been reported in the literature that influence human decision-making in complex health services? A clear, reproducible methodology is provided. It is reported in accordance with the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews) standards and a recognized framework. As the topic of interest merited broad review to scope and understand literature from a holistic viewpoint, a scoping review of literature was appropriate here. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were developed, and a database search undertaken within 4 search systems-ProQuest, Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science.

RESULTS

The results span 46 years, from 1976 to 2022. A total of 167 papers were identified. After removing duplicates, 81 papers remained. Of these, 77 papers were excluded based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The remaining 4 papers were found to be relevant. Citation tracking was undertaken, identifying 4 more relevant papers. Thus, a total of 8 papers were included. These papers were reviewed in detail to identify the human attributes mentioned and count the frequency of mentions. A thematic analysis was conducted to identify the themes.

CONCLUSIONS

The results highlight key themes that underline the complex and nuanced nature of human decision-making. The results suggest that rationality is entrenched and may influence the lexicon of our thinking about decision-making. The results also highlight the counter narrative of decision-making underpinned by uniquely human attributes. This may have ramifications for decision-making in complex health services today. The review itself takes a rational approach, and the methods used were suited to this.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/42353.

Enhancing public sector enterprise risk management through interactive information processing

Introduction

Federal agencies are increasingly expected to adopt enterprise risk management (ERM). However, public sector adoption of ERM has typically focused on the economic efficiency of tax-financed activities based on control-based practices. This reflects an emphasis on quantifiable concerns that invariably directs attention to risk, that (by definition) relates to identifiable and measurable events, thereby downplaying uncertain and unknown aspects of public exposures. This is a potentially serious shortcoming as government entities often act as society's risk managers of last resort. When extreme events happen what were previously considered private matters can quickly turn into public obligations. Hence, there is a need for proactive assessments of the evolving public risk landscape to discern unpredictable-even unknowable-developments.

Methods

The article reviews recent empirical studies on public risk management practices, effects of digitalization in public sector institutions, current strategic management research, and insights uncovered from a recent study of risk management practices in federal agencies. On this basis, the article explains how the ability to generate value from ERM can be enhanced when it intertwines with local responsive initiatives and central strategic risk analyses. It can form a dynamic adaptive risk management process where insights from dispersed actors inform updated risk analyses based on local autonomy and open exchange of information. This approach builds on specific structural features embedded in culture-driven aspirations to generate collaborative solutions. Its functional mode is an interactive control system with open discussions across levels and functions in contrast to conventional diagnostic controls that monitor predetermined key performance indicators (KPIs) and key risk indicators (KRIs).

Findings

Backed by theoretical rationales and empirical research evidence, it is found that applications of ERM frameworks can produce positive results but is unable to deal with a public risk landscape characterized by uncertain unpredictable conditions with potentially extreme outcome effects. It is shown how interactive exchange of fast local insights and slow integrated strategic risk analyses supported by digitized data processing can form a dynamic adaptive system that enable public sector institutions to deal with emergent high-scale exposures. It is explained how the requirement for conducive organizational structures and supportive values require a new strategic risk leadership approach, which is contrasted to observed practices in federal agencies that are constrained by prevailing public governance requirements.

Discussion

The need to deal with uncertainty and unknown conditions demands a cognitive shift in current thinking from a primary focus on risk to also appraise complexity and prepare for the unexpected where data-driven methods can uncover emergent exposures through dynamic information processing. This requires strategic risk leaders that recognize the significance of complex public exposures with many unknowns and a willingness to facilitate digitalized information processing rooted in a collaborative organizational climate. If handled properly, adoption of ERM in public risk management can consider emergent dimensions in complex public exposures applying interactive information processing as a dynamic adaptive risk management approach incorporating digitized methods to solicit collective intelligence for strategic risk updating.

Conviction Narrative Theory gains from a richer formal model

Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) is a convincing descriptive theory, and Johnson et al.'s formal model is a welcome contribution to building more precise, testable hypotheses. However, some extensions to the proposed model would make it better defined and more powerful. The suggested extensions enable the model to go beyond CNT, predicting choice outcomes and explaining affective phenomena.

Understanding performance measurement and management as a social system: towards a theoretical framework

Purpose

The conceptual foundations of performance measurement and management (PMM) are predominantly rooted in control systems research. However, the appropriateness of this paradigm for volatile and uncertain environments has been questioned. This paper explores whether grounding PMM in social systems theory and viewing uncertainty from an organisational behaviour perspective provides new insights into the PMM theory–practice gap.

Design/methodology/approach

A framework, rooted in social systems theory and practice theory, is created that describes how organisational behaviour shapes the social processes associated with organisational change. Semi-structured interviews of 35 people from 16 organisations coupled with thematic analysis are employed to identify the organisational behavioural characteristics that influence how PMM is executed in practice. PMM is then reconceptualised from the perspective of this social systems-based framework.

Findings

This investigation proposes (1) performance management is concerned with elements of PMM-related practices open to flexible interpretation by human agents that change the effectiveness of organisational practices, whereas performance measurement is concerned with elements of PMM-related practices not open to interpretation but deliberately reproduced to provide a consistent comparison with the past; (2) the purpose of PMM should be to achieve organisational effectiveness (OE) and (3) the mechanisms underlying performance management and performance measurement are social intervention and embeddedness, respectively.

Originality/value

This first social systems perspective of PMM advances the development of PMM's theoretical foundations by providing a behaviour-based interpretation of, and framework for, PMM-mediated organisational change. This competing approach has strong links to practice.

The agency of fertility plans

Fertility plans are a prominent area for agency research, and are a clear example of a misalignment between resources and agency capacity. We relied both on the idea of conversion factors of the Capability Approach and the pragmatist tradition of temporal-oriented agency to propose a framework for the study of fertility agency as the conversion process of resources into plans and behavior. We outlined said framework by using a unique dataset on fertility plans composed of open and closed questions from an Italian sample. Economic factors and imaginaries related to children and family represented the vast majority of (hindering and enabling) conversion factors. The notion of conversion factors is crucial for disentangling the network of heterogeneous elements involved in fertility agency: it allows focus to be shifted from structural factors related to social position and psychological characteristics to more situated elements that enable agency capacity.

Neural Support for Contributions of Utility and Narrative Processing of Evidence in Juror Decision Making

Efforts to explain complex human decisions have focused on competing theories emphasizing utility and narrative mechanisms. These are difficult to distinguish using behavior alone. Both narrative and utility theories have been proposed to explain juror decisions, which are among the most consequential complex decisions made in a modern society. Here, we asked jury-eligible male and female subjects to rate the strength of a series of criminal cases while recording the resulting patterns of brain activation. We compared patterns of brain activation associated with evidence accumulation to patterns of brain activation derived from a large neuroimaging database to look for signatures of the cognitive processes associated with different models of juror decision-making. Evidence accumulation correlated with multiple narrative processes, including reading and recall. Of the cognitive processes traditionally viewed as components of utility, activation patterns associated with uncertainty, but not value, were more active with stronger evidence. Independent of utility and narrative, activations linked to reasoning and relational logic also correlated with increasing evidence. Hierarchical modeling of cognitive processes associated with evidence accumulation supported a more prominent role for narrative in weighing evidence in complex decisions. However, utility processes were also associated with evidence accumulation. These complementary findings support an emerging view that integrates utility and narrative processes in complex decisions.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The last decade has seen a sharply increased interest in narrative as a central cognitive process in human decision-making and as an important factor in the evolution of human societies. However, the roles of narrative versus utility models of decision-making remain hotly debated. While available models frequently produce similar behavioral predictions, they rely on different cognitive processes and so their roles can be separated using the right neural tests. Here, we use brain imaging during mock juror decisions to show that cognitive processes associated with narrative, and to a lesser extent utility, were engaged while subjects evaluated evidence. These results are consistent with interactions between narrative and utility processes during complex decision-making.

Negative consequences of failing to communicate uncertainties during a pandemic: an online randomised controlled trial on COVID-19 vaccines

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact of the government communicating uncertainties relating to COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness on vaccination intention and trust after people are exposed to conflicting information.

DESIGN

Experimental design where participants were randomly allocated to one of two groups.

SETTING

Online.

PARTICIPANTS

328 adults from a UK research panel.

INTERVENTION

Participants received either certain or uncertain communications from a government representative about COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, before receiving conflicting information about effectiveness.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Vaccination intention and trust in government.

RESULTS

Compared with those who received the uncertain announcement from the government, participants who received the certain announcement reported a greater loss of vaccination intention (d=0.34, 95% CI (0.12 to 0.56), p=0.002) and trust (d=0.34, 95% CI (0.12 to 0.56), p=0.002) after receiving conflicting information.

CONCLUSIONS

Communicating with certainty about COVID-19 vaccines reduces vaccination intention and trust if conflicting information arises, whereas communicating uncertainties can protect people from the negative impact of exposure to conflicting information. There are likely to be other factors affecting vaccine intentions, which we do not account for in this study.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Open Science Framework: https://osf.io/c73px/.

Agency as conversion process

Its importance for understanding social dynamics notwithstanding, the concept of agency is one of sociology's more controversial ideas. The debate around this concept has mostly been developed at a theoretical level and the empirical studies tend to rely on socio-psychological interpretations of agency as a stable, inner force capable of influencing prospects, decisions, and behavior with little room for change in agency capacity. Social sciences, though, should take a more dynamic stance on agency and highlight the role of the different elements of the social context that can enable or hinder individual agency capacity. Prompted by recent developments of the Capability Approach, this article proposes a framework for the study of agency that defines individual agency as the result of a conversion process of personal resources shaped by conversion factors. Conversion factors operate at micro, meso, and macro levels of analysis, each of which can be oriented toward past experiences, present conditions, and future prospects. This article also seeks to analytically distinguish three types of agency outcome: adaptation, autonomy, and influence. Such a framework will facilitate the transformation of the slippery notion of agency into more tractable empirical phenomena which increase its analytical and critical capacity.

Episodic future thinking and anticipatory emotions: Effects on delay discounting and preventive behaviors during COVID-19

We examined the effects of anticipatory emotions induced by episodic future thinking on the basic decision‐process of delay discounting and preventive behaviors during the most stringent COVID‐19 “lockdown” period in China. We define anticipatory emotions as any discrete emotions induced from anticipating decision outcomes and felt during decision‐making. In an online study conducted with healthy volunteers, anticipatory emotions were induced and appraised by asking participants to rate various emotions they feel when thinking they may be infected by COVID‐19 (N = 246). The participants in the control group reported their present emotions during the COVID‐19 pandemic (N = 245). Compared with the control group, the participants in the anticipatory emotion group had a higher future‐oriented preference for monetary rewards, with a significantly lower delay discounting rate. These participants also had a higher intention to engage in proactive, preventive behaviors. The likelihood estimate of being infected by COVID‐19 mediated these effects. Moreover, anticipatory disgust increased the preference for larger‐and‐later rewards. Anticipatory emotions induced by future thinking guide fast and rational decision‐making in a health crisis.

The challenges of providing certainty in the face of wicked problems: Analysing the UK government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic

Positioning Covid-19 as a wicked problem we analyse the extent that the UK government adhered to the guidelines for dealing with such problems and the extent to which the management of the pandemic exacerbated the crisis. We argue the management of the pandemic saw a continuance of political communication as usual, focusing on emphasising the optimistic rhetoric which underpinned the Brexit narrative and 2019 election campaign which delivered Boris Johnson a majority. The failure to break out of a narrow permanent campaigning mindset which saw the pandemic as a brief interlude during a period when the focus was on delivering Brexit led to public confusion as optimistic claims were proven to be inaccurate and promises unreachable. Johnson's government's attempts to offer certainty despite a situation characterised by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity led to numerous U-turns that seriously damaged their credibility while the politicisation of the response led to poor decision making at key points. We therefore highlight the deficiencies of Johnson's strategy and highlight key lessons for communications professionals who navigate an increasingly volatile and uncertain world beset by wicked problems. In particularly we highlight the importance of depoliticising crises, seeking a diverse range of ideas and expertise, developing an empathic leadership style, starting a public conversation that recognises uncertainty and so develop a framework where wicked problems are a feature of public debate. We argue that failure in all of these areas contributed to the UK's poor comparative performance during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Perceived self-efficacy of students in a business simulation game

Self-efficacy is an individual's confidence in the personal ability to complete a task under specified conditions. Game self-efficacy is the belief of game players that they would win in a business simulation game competition. To understand the composites of such belief, an instrument of 30 statements was developed and statistically tested on 227 undergraduate students at the end of a business simulation game competition. The factor analysis produced eight factors of perceived game self-efficacy, namely, innovation, experimentation, conviction, openness, focus, proactivity, conceptualisation and determination. These factors have significant research implications for goal-oriented behaviour, goal setting and performance enhancement at work and in games and competitions, and in developing simulation games.

Dynamics of wilful blindness: An introduction

What are the politics of ignorance in an age of misinformation? How can the concept of ‘wilful blindness’ help us to understand the logics involved? We start the introduction to this special issue by arguing that the intrinsic instability of wilful blindness draws valuable attention to the graded nature of intentionality and perception, and the tensions between them. These features are an essential part of the workings of ignorance, as we illustrate with reference to the shifting intentions of drug couriers, the fleeting moments in which the humanity of victims is recognised in the midst of violent acts, and the affects that channel economic behaviour, such as in the subprime mortgage crisis. When approaching perception and intentionality as complexly entangled in institutionalised fields of power, ‘wilful blindness’ emerges as a powerful and critical diagnostic of the epistemic instabilities of our time.

A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere "statistical shadow of the past", and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their "narrative of the future" - imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the "shared narratives" produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.

Reforming the UK financial system to promote regional development in post-COVID Britain

The UK government faces a massive post-COVID problem in restructuring failing companies and rebuilding its already depressed regions. A missing part of the solution is to link government as well as private-sector funding to the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the regions. The institutional structure that is required has precedents in the UK, which can be used as the basis for reforming the funding of its SMEs.

Neural Processing of Narratives: From Individual Processing to Viral Propagation

Narratives, in the form of, e.g., written stories, mouth-to-mouth accounts, audiobooks, fiction movies, and media-feeds, powerfully shape the perception of reality and widely influence human decision-making. In this review, we describe findings from recent neuroimaging studies unraveling how narratives influence the human brain, thus shaping perception, cognition, emotions, and decision-making. It appears that narrative sense-making relies on default-mode network (DMN) structures of the brain, especially precuneus. Activity in precuneus further seems to differ for fictitious vs. real narratives. Notably, high inter-subject correlation (ISC) of brain activity during narrative processing seems to predict the efficacy of a narrative. Factors that enhance the ISC of brain activity during narratives include higher levels of attention, emotional arousal, and negative emotional valence. Higher levels of attentional suspense seem to co-vary with activity in the temporoparietal junction, emotional arousal with activity in dorsal attention network, and negative emotional valence with activity in DMN. Lingering after-effects of emotional narratives have been further described in DMN, amygdala, and sensory cortical areas. Finally, inter-individual differences in personality, and cultural-background related analytical and holistic thinking styles, shape ISC of brain activity during narrative perception. Together, these findings offer promising leads for future studies elucidating the effects of narratives on the human brain, and how such effects might predict the efficacy of narratives in modulating decision-making.

Financial alchemists and financial shamans

Professional money management appears to require little skill, yet its practitioners command astronomical salaries. Singh's theory of shamanism provides one possible explanation: Financial professionals are the shamans of the global economy. They cultivate the perception of superhuman traits, maintain grueling initiation rituals, and rely on esoteric divination rituals. An anthropological view of markets can usefully supplement economic and psychological approaches.