Cut stroke in half: Polypill for primary prevention in stroke

Twenty years on from the introduction of the high risk strategy for stroke and cardiovascular disease prevention: a systematic scoping review

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Early this century, the high risk strategy of primary stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention for individuals shifted away from identifying (and treating, as appropriate) all at-risk individuals towards identifying and treating individuals who exceed arbitrary thresholds of absolute CVD risk. The public health impact of this strategy is uncertain.

METHODS

In our systematic scoping review, the electronic databases (Scopus, MEDLINE, Embase, Google Scholar, Cochrane Library) were searched to identify and appraise publications related to primary CVD/stroke prevention strategies and their effectiveness published in any language from January 1990 to August 2023.

RESULTS

No published randomized controlled trial was found on the effectiveness of the high CVD risk strategy for primary stroke/CVD prevention. Targeting high CVD risk individuals excludes a large proportion of the population from effective blood-pressure-lowering and lipid-lowering treatment and effective CVD prevention. There is also evidence that blood pressure lowering and lipid lowering are beneficial irrespective of blood pressure and cholesterol levels and irrespective of absolute CVD risk and that risk-stratified pharmacological management of blood pressure and lipids to only high CVD risk individuals leads to significant underuse of blood-pressure-lowering and lipid-lowering medications in individuals otherwise eligible for such treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary stroke and CVD prevention needs to be done in all individuals with increased risk of CVD/stroke. Pharmacological management of blood pressure and blood cholesterol should not be solely based on the high CVD risk treatment thresholds. International guidelines and global strategies for primary CVD/stroke prevention need to be revised.

WITHDRAWN: Advances in Neurovascular Research: Scientific Highlights from the 15th World Stroke Congress

The Publisher regrets that this article is an accidental duplication of an article that has already been published, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2024.107614. The duplicate article has therefore been withdrawn. The full Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal can be found at https://www.elsevier.com/about/policies/article-withdrawal.

Usability and feasibility of PreventS-MD web app for stroke prevention

BACKGROUND

Most strokes and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are potentially preventable if their risk factors are identified and well controlled. Digital platforms, such as the PreventS-MD web app (PreventS-MD) may aid health care professionals (HCPs) in assessing and managing risk factors and promoting lifestyle changes for their patients.

METHODS

This is a mixed-methods cross-sectional two-phase survey using a largely positivist (quantitative and qualitative) framework. During Phase 1, a prototype of PreventS-MD was tested internationally by 59 of 69 consenting HCPs of different backgrounds, age, sex, working experience, and specialties using hypothetical data. Collected comments/suggestions from the study HCPs in Phase 1 were reviewed and implemented. In Phase 2, a near-final version of PreventS-MD was developed and tested by 58 of 72 consenting HCPs using both hypothetical and real patient (n = 10) data. Qualitative semi-structured interviews with real patients (n = 10) were conducted, and 1 month adherence to the preventive recommendations was assessed by self-reporting. The four System Usability Scale (SUS) groups of scores (0-50 unacceptable; 51-68 poor; 68-80.3 good; >80.3 excellent) were used to determine usability of PreventS-MD.

FINDINGS

Ninety-nine HCPs from 27 countries (45% from low- to middle-income countries) participated in the study, and out of them, 10 HCPs were involved in the development of PreventS before the study, and therefore were not involved in the survey. Of the remaining 89 HCPs, 69 consented to the first phase of the survey, and 59 of them completed the first phase of the survey (response rate 86%), and 58 completed the second phase of the survey (response rate 84%). The SUS scores supported good usability of the prototype (mean score = 80.2; 95% CI [77.0-84.0]) and excellent usability of the final version of PreventS-MD (mean score = 81.7; 95% CI [79.1-84.3]) in the field. Scores were not affected by the age, sex, working experience, or specialty of the HCPs. One-month follow-up of the patients confirmed the high level of satisfaction/acceptability of PreventS-MD and (100%) adherence to the recommendations.

INTERPRETATION

The PreventS-MD web app has a high level of usability, feasibility, and satisfaction by HCPs and individuals at risk of stroke/CVD. Individuals at risk of stroke/CVD demonstrated a high level of confidence and motivation in following and adhering to preventive recommendations generated by PreventS-MD.

Pragmatic solutions to reduce the global burden of stroke: a World Stroke Organization-Lancet Neurology Commission

Stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide. The burden of disability after a stroke is also large, and is increasing at a faster pace in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Alarmingly, the incidence of stroke is increasing in young and middle-aged people (ie, age <55 years) globally. Should these trends continue, Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 (reducing the burden of stroke as part of the general target to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases by a third by 2030) will not be met.

In this Commission, we forecast the burden of stroke from 2020 to 2050. We project that stroke mortality will increase by 50%—from 6·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 6·0 million–7·1 million) in 2020, to 9·7 million (8·0 million–11·6 million) in 2050—with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) growing over the same period from 144·8 million (133·9 million–156·9 million) in 2020, to 189·3 million (161·8 million–224·9 million) in 2050. These projections prompted us to do a situational analysis across the four pillars of the stroke quadrangle: surveillance, prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation. We have also identified the barriers to, and facilitators for, the achievement of these four pillars. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) The sum of the years of life lost as a result of premature mortality from a disease and the years lived with a disability associated with prevalent cases of the disease in a population. One DALY represents the loss of the equivalent of one year of full health

On the basis of our assessment, we have identified and prioritised several recommendations. For each of the four pillars (surveillance, prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation), we propose pragmatic solutions for the implementation of evidence-based interventions to reduce the global burden of stroke. The estimated direct (ie, treatment and rehabilitation) and indirect (considering productivity loss) costs of stroke globally are in excess of US$891 billion annually. The pragmatic solutions we put forwards for urgent implementation should help to mitigate these losses, reduce the global burden of stroke, and contribute to achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, the WHO Intersectoral Global Action Plan on epilepsy and other neurological disorders (2022–2031), and the WHO Global Action Plan for prevention and control of non-communicable diseases.

Reduction of the global burden of stroke, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, by implementing primary and secondary stroke prevention strategies and evidence-based acute care and rehabilitation services is urgently required. Measures to facilitate this goal include: the establishment of a framework to monitor and assess the burden of stroke (and its risk factors) and stroke services at a national level; the implementation of integrated population-level and individual-level prevention strategies for people at any increased risk of cerebrovascular disease, with emphasis on early detection and control of hypertension; planning and delivery of acute stroke care services, including the establishment of stroke units with access to reperfusion therapies for ischaemic stroke and workforce training and capacity building (and monitoring of quality indicators for these services nationally, regionally, and globally); the promotion of interdisciplinary stroke care services, training for caregivers, and capacity building for community health workers and other health-care providers working in stroke rehabilitation; and the creation of a stroke advocacy and implementation ecosystem that includes all relevant communities, organisations, and stakeholders.

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Machine Learning and the Conundrum of Stroke Risk Prediction

Stroke is a leading cause of death worldwide. With escalating healthcare costs, early non-invasive stroke risk stratification is vital. The current paradigm of stroke risk assessment and mitigation is focused on clinical risk factors and comorbidities. Standard algorithms predict risk using regression-based statistical associations, which, while useful and easy to use, have moderate predictive accuracy. This review summarises recent efforts to deploy machine learning (ML) to predict stroke risk and enrich the understanding of the mechanisms underlying stroke. The surveyed body of literature includes studies comparing ML algorithms with conventional statistical models for predicting cardiovascular disease and, in particular, different stroke subtypes. Another avenue of research explored is ML as a means of enriching multiscale computational modelling, which holds great promise for revealing thrombogenesis mechanisms. Overall, ML offers a new approach to stroke risk stratification that accounts for subtle physiologic variants between patients, potentially leading to more reliable and personalised predictions than standard regression-based statistical associations.

Primary Prevention of Ischemic Stroke

Ischemic stroke is by far the most common type of cerebrovascular event and remains a major cause of death and disability globally. Despite advancements in acute stroke care, primary prevention is still the most cost-effective approach in reducing the burden of ischemic stroke. The two main strategies for primary stroke prevention include population-wide versus high-risk group interventions. Interventions such as increasing access to primary care, regulation of salt and sugar contents in processed foods, public education, and campaigns to control cerebrovascular risk factors are examples of population-wide interventions. High-risk group interventions, on the other hand, focus on recognition of individuals at risk and aim to modify risk factors in a timely and multifaceted manner. This article provides an overview on conventional modifiable risk factors for ischemic stroke and highlights the emerging risk factors and approaches for high-risk group identification and treatment.

Polypill: Benefits Seen for Stroke and Other Outcomes

A polypill-type strategy for primary prevention was first published at the turn of the century and advised that a multi-ingredient pill applied to an adult population would prevent up to 80% of cardiovascular and stroke events. Such a pill should contain small doses of antihypertensives, lipid-lowering drugs, and some nutrients. The startling increase of the global stroke burden has led to a revival of this concept and the propagation of a population-based prevention strategy. Recent cardiovascular fixed-dose combination trials have shown a significant effect in reducing not only blood pressure and cholesterol levels but also in reducing cardiovascular and stroke events. In most of the studies, the study population was for secondary prevention and the total number of strokes was small. Nevertheless, it is now clear that a large proportion of primary prevention must take this path. It is especially promising when combined with community health workers interventions for modifying risk behavior. While a polypill-type approach seems most efficacious in underserved regions of high-income countries as well as in low- and middle-income countries, it seems to have a large overall effect in spite of some problems with nonadherence or potential side effects. It should be available and affordable for large target populations. Larger phase 4 studies are under way.

Guhong injection promotes post-stroke functional recovery via attenuating cortical inflammation and apoptosis in subacute stage of ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

As a leading cause of death and disability, alternative therapies for stroke are still limited by its complicated pathophysiological manifestations. Guhong injection (GHI), consisting of safflower aqueous extract and aceglutamide, has been widely applied for the clinical treatment of cerebrovascular diseases, especially ischemic stroke and post-stroke recovery, in China. Recently, a series of studies have reported the positive effect of GHI against cerebral ischemia/reperfusion injury via targeting various molecular mechanisms. However, questions remain on whether treatment with GHI contributes to better functional recovery after stroke and if so, the potential mechanisms and active substances.

PURPOSE

The aim of this work was to explore the potential therapeutic possibilities of GHI for the neurological and behavioral recovery after stroke and to investigate the underlying molecular mechanisms as well as active substances.

METHODS

The neural and motor deficits as well as cortical lesions after GHI treatment were investigated in a mouse model of transient ischemic stroke. Based on the substance identification of GHI, network pharmacology combined with an experimental verification method was used to systematically decipher the biological processes and signaling pathways closely related to GHI intervention in response to post-stroke functional outcomes. Subsequently, ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA) analysis was performed to determine the anti-stroke active substances targeting to the hub targets involved in the significant molecular pathways regulated by GHI treatment.

RESULTS

Therapeutically, administration of GHI observably ameliorated the post-stroke recovery of neural and locomotor function as well as reduced infarct volume and histopathological damage to the cerebral cortex in subacute stroke mice. According to 26 identified or tentatively characterized substances in GHI, the compound-target-pathway network was built. Bioinformatics analysis suggested that inflammatory and apoptotic pathways were tightly associated with the anti-stroke effect of GHI. Based on protein-protein interaction network analysis, the hub targets (such as NF-κB p65, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-1β, Bax, Bcl-2, and Caspase-3) involved in inflammation and apoptosis were selected. On the one hand, immunofluorescence and ELISA results showed that GHI (10 ml/kg) treatment obviously reduced NF-κB p65 nuclear translocation as well as decreased the abnormally elevated concentrations of proinflammatory cytokines (TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-1β) in damaged cortex tissues. On the other hand, GHI (10 ml/kg) treatment significantly downregulated the number of TUNEL-positive apoptotic cells in ischemic cortex and effectively restored the abnormal expression of Bax, Bcl-2, and Caspase-3. Based on the results of IPA, hydroxysafflor yellow A, baicalin, scutellarin, gallic acid, syringin, chlorogenic acid, kaempferol, kaempferol-3-O-β-rutinoside, and rutin acted synergistically on core targets, which could be considered as the active substances of GHI.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the current findings showed that the beneficial action of GHI on improving post-stroke functional recovery of subacute stroke mice partly via the modulation of cortical inflammation and apoptosis. These findings not only provide a reliable reference for the clinical application of GHI, but also shed light on a promising alternative therapeutic strategy for ischemic stroke patients.

Influence of age on links between major modifiable risk factors and stroke occurrence in West Africa

Background The burden of stroke in Africa is high. Understanding how age associates with major modifiable stroke risk factors could inform tailored demographic stroke prevention strategies. Purpose To quantify the magnitude and direction of the effect sizes of key modifiable stroke risk factors according to three age groups: <50 years (young), 50-65 years (middle age) and > 65 years (elderly) in West Africa. Methods This was a case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases included adults aged ≥18 years with CT/MRI scan-typed stroke. Controls were age-and gender-matched stroke-free adults. Detailed evaluations for vascular, lifestyle and psychosocial factors were performed. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) using conditional logistic regression and population attributable risk (PAR) with 95% Confidence Interval of vascular risk factors by age groups. Results Among 3553 stroke cases, 813 (22.9%) were young, 1441 (40.6%) were middle-aged and 1299 (36.6%) were elderly. Among the 5 co-shared risk factors, dyslipidemia with PAR and aOR (95%CI) of 62.20% (52.82-71.58) and 4.13 (2.64-6.46) was highest among the young age group; hypertension with PAR of 94.31% (91.82-96.80) and aOR of 28.93 (15.10-55.44) was highest among the middle-age group. Diabetes with PAR of 32.29%(27.52-37.05) and aOR of 3.49 (2.56-4.75); meat consumption with PAR of 42.34%(32.33-52.35) and aOR of 2.40 (1.76, 3.26); and non-consumption of green vegetables, PAR of 16.81%(12.02-21.60) and aOR of 2.23 (1.60-3.12) were highest among the elderly age group. However confidence intervals of risk estimates overlapped across age groups. Additionally, among the young age group cigarette smoking, psychosocial stress and cardiac disease were independently associated with stroke. Furthermore, education, stress, physical inactivity and salt intake were associated with stroke in the middle-age group while cardiac disease was associated with stroke in the elderly age group. Conclusion There is a differential influence of age on the associations of major risk factors with stroke in this West African cohort. Targeting modifiable factors predominant within an age group may be more effective as a stroke prevention strategy.

The Attitude towards Polypills Questionnaire (APPQ): a phase I-III development and validation study in patients with cerebrovascular disease

Background and purpose

The polypill approach has been proposed to reduce patients’ pill burden, increase medication adherence and lower stroke incidence. However, little is known about patients’ attitudes towards polypills for cerebrovascular medication.

Methods

Based on the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Group questionnaire development guidelines, a questionnaire to measure patients’ attitudes towards polypills for the secondary prevention of stroke (phase I–III) was developed. In phase I, issues were generated via literature review and interviews with patients and healthcare professionals. The issues were operationalized into items in phase II. In phase III the questionnaire was validated in a large single‐centre sample, and test–retest and internal validity were evaluated.

Results

In phase I, 34 relevant issues were identified through literature search and interviews. Pre‐testing the questionnaire indicated high applicability and comprehensibility. The final Attitudes towards Polypills Questionnaire was tested in N = 260 patients and showed a two‐factor structure. The factors were labelled ‘concerns’ and ‘benefits’. The scales showed acceptable and good internal validity (concerns, Cronbach's α = 0.85; benefits, α = 0.93), but the scales’ test–retest validity was ambiguous. On a 0 to 3 rating scale, concerns were rated lower than benefits (mean 1.07, SD 0.69 vs. mean 1.87, SD 0.89).

Conclusions

The Attitudes towards Polypills Questionnaire showed high comprehensibility and content validity to assess German language patients’ attitudes towards a polypill medication. Our data and questionnaire may aid the implementation of polypill treatments in clinical practice and can be used in the design of future clinical trials on polypill therapy. Further validation of the questionnaire is advised.

Stroke risk prediction using machine learning: a prospective cohort study of 0.5 million Chinese adults

OBJECTIVE

To compare Cox models, machine learning (ML), and ensemble models combining both approaches, for prediction of stroke risk in a prospective study of Chinese adults.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We evaluated models for stroke risk at varying intervals of follow-up (<9 years, 0-3 years, 3-6 years, 6-9 years) in 503 842 adults without prior history of stroke recruited from 10 areas in China in 2004-2008. Inputs included sociodemographic factors, diet, medical history, physical activity, and physical measurements. We compared discrimination and calibration of Cox regression, logistic regression, support vector machines, random survival forests, gradient boosted trees (GBT), and multilayer perceptrons, benchmarking performance against the 2017 Framingham Stroke Risk Profile. We then developed an ensemble approach to identify individuals at high risk of stroke (>10% predicted 9-yr stroke risk) by selectively applying either a GBT or Cox model based on individual-level characteristics.

RESULTS

For 9-yr stroke risk prediction, GBT provided the best discrimination (AUROC: 0.833 in men, 0.836 in women) and calibration, with consistent results in each interval of follow-up. The ensemble approach yielded incrementally higher accuracy (men: 76%, women: 80%), specificity (men: 76%, women: 81%), and positive predictive value (men: 26%, women: 24%) compared to any of the single-model approaches.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Among several approaches, an ensemble model combining both GBT and Cox models achieved the best performance for identifying individuals at high risk of stroke in a contemporary study of Chinese adults. The results highlight the potential value of expanding the use of ML in clinical practice.

Polypill Trials for Stroke Prevention-Main Results, Critical Appraisal, and Implications for US Population

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The polypill, referring to a variety of combinations of low-cost cardiovascular and stroke preventive medications combined in a single tablet, has been evaluated as a population-based approach for cardiovascular disease prevention in several trials. This review summarizes the scope of the problem, main trial results, and their potential applicability to the US population.

RECENT FINDINGS

Initial trials demonstrated the efficacy of the polypill approach. The most recent, the PolyIran study, showed the effectiveness of one form of a polypill for cardiovascular disease prevention, high medication adherence, and low adverse event rates. None of published polypill trials focused on stroke as the primary outcome and most were conducted in developing countries, limiting generalization to the US population. A US-based randomized trial with stroke as the primary outcome is needed to assess the usefulness of this approach for stroke prevention in the USA.

The global burden of neurological disorders: translating evidence into policy

Neurological disorders are the leading cause of disability and the second leading cause of death worldwide. In the past 30 years, the absolute numbers of deaths and people with disabilities owing to neurological diseases have risen substantially, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, and further increases are expected globally as a result of population growth and ageing. This rise in absolute numbers of people affected suggests that advances in prevention and management of major neurological disorders are not sufficiently effective to counter global demographic changes. Urgent measures to reduce this burden are therefore needed. Because resources for health care and research are already overstretched, priorities need to be set to guide policy makers, governments, and funding organisations to develop and implement action plans for prevention, health care, and research to tackle the growing challenge of neurological disorders.

Simultaneous estimation of amlodipine and atorvastatin by micelle-augmented first derivative synchronous spectrofluorimetry and multivariate analysis

Five Selective, rapid and sensitive spectrofluorimetric methods were performed in this study for the simultaneous estimation of amlodipine besylate (AML) and atorvastatin (ATR) in their binary mixtures and combination polypills that are used for management of cardiovascular conditions. The first method depends on micelle-enhanced first derivative synchronous fluorimetric analysis (method I) and the other four methods are multivariate analysis techniques based on the use of factor-based calibration prediction methods comprising partial least squares (PLS), Principal Component Regression (PCR), genetic algorithm PLS (GA-PLS) and genetic algorithm PCR (GA-PCR). The synchronous fluorescence spectra of the solutions were measured at a constant wavelength difference; Δλ = 100 nm. The magnitudes of the peaks of the first derivative spectra (1D) were measured at 292 nm and 387 nm for ATR, and AML correspondingly. The multivariate models were constructed utilizing fifteen mixtures as a calibration set and ten mixtures as a validation set. The linearity of all the methods was in the concentration ranges of (0.1-4.0 μg mL^-1, 0.4-10.0 μg mL^-1) for AML and ATR, correspondingly. Statistical analysis revealed no significant difference between the proposed methods and the reference method. The validity of the proposed methods allows their suitability for quality control work. All the analysis settings were optimized and all the suggested procedures were applied productively for the determination of both drugs in synthetic mixtures, validation set, and combination polypills.

Disease or not, aging is easily treatable

Is aging a disease? It does not matter because aging is already treated using a combination of several clinically-available drugs, including rapamycin. Whether aging is a disease depends on arbitrary definitions of both disease and aging. For treatment purposes, aging is a deadly disease (or more generally, pre-disease), despite being a normal continuation of normal organismal growth. It must and, importantly, can be successfully treated, thereby delaying classic age-related diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, and neurodegeneration.

Multi-level community interventions for primary stroke prevention: A conceptual approach by the World Stroke Organization

The increasing burden of stroke and dementia emphasizes the need for new, well-tolerated and cost-effective primary prevention strategies that can reduce the risks of stroke and dementia worldwide, and specifically in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

 This paper outlines conceptual frameworks of three primary stroke prevention strategies: (a) the “polypill” strategy; (b) a “population-wide” strategy; and (c) a “motivational population-wide” strategy.

 (a) A polypill containing generic low-dose ingredients of blood pressure and lipid-lowering medications (e.g. candesartan 16 mg, amlodipine 2.5 mg, and rosuvastatin 10 mg) seems a safe and cost-effective approach for primary prevention of stroke and dementia.

 (b) A population-wide strategy reducing cardiovascular risk factors in the whole population, regardless of the level of risk is the most effective primary prevention strategy. A motivational population-wide strategy for the modification of health behaviors (e.g. smoking, diet, physical activity) should be based on the principles of cognitive behavioral therapy. Mobile technologies, such as smartphones, offer an ideal interface for behavioral interventions (e.g. Stroke Riskometer app) even in LMICs.

 (c) Community health workers can improve the maintenance of lifestyle changes as well as the adherence to medication, especially in resource poor areas. An adequate training of community health workers is a key point.

Conclusion

An effective primary stroke prevention strategy on a global scale should integrate pharmacological (polypill) and lifestyle modifications (motivational population-wide strategy) interventions. Side effects of such an integrative approach are expected to be minimal and the benefits among individuals at low-to-moderate risk of stroke could be significant. In the future, pragmatic field trials will provide more evidence.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016.

METHODS

We report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles.

FINDINGS

In 2016, there were 5·5 million (95% UI 5·3 to 5·7) deaths and 116·4 million (111·4 to 121·4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36·2% (-39·3 to -33·6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34·2% (-37·2 to -31·5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13·7 million (12·7 to 14·7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8·1% (-10·7 to -5·5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80·1 million (74·1 to 86·3) prevalent cases of stroke globally in 2016; 41·1 million (38·0 to 44·3) in women and 39·0 million (36·1 to 42·1) in men.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised mortality rates have decreased sharply from 1990 to 2016, the decrease in age-standardised incidence has been less steep, indicating that the burden of stroke is likely to remain high. Planned updates to future GBD iterations include generating separate estimates for subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracerebral haemorrhage, generating estimates of transient ischaemic attack, and including atrial fibrillation as a risk factor.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Priorities to reduce the burden of stroke in Latin American countries

The large and increasing burden of stroke in Latin American countries, and the need to meet the UN and WHO requirements for reducing the burden from non-communicable disorders (including stroke), brought together stroke experts and representatives of the Ministries of Health of 13 Latin American countries for the 1st Latin American Stroke Ministerial meeting in Gramado, Brazil, to discuss the problem and identify ways of cooperating to reduce the burden of stroke in the region. Discussions were focused on the regional and country-specific activities associated with stroke prevention and treatment, including public stroke awareness, prevention strategies, delivery and organisation of care, clinical practice gaps, and unmet needs. The meeting culminated with the adoption of the special Gramado Declaration, signed by all Ministerial officials who attended the meeting. With agreed priorities for stroke prevention, treatment, and research, an opportunity now exists to translate this Declaration into an action plan to reduce the burden of stroke.

Anthology of stroke epidemiology in the 20th and 21st centuries: Assessing the past, the present, and envisioning the future

This narrative overview of stroke epidemiology shows dramatic changes in stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, and the understanding of risk factors and primary stroke prevention strategies over the last few decades. Likely future directions of stroke epidemiology and prevention are outlined.

Lifetime risk of common neurological diseases in the elderly population

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the burden of common neurological disease in older adults in terms of lifetime risks, including their co-occurrence and preventive potential, within a competing risk framework.

METHODS

Within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, we studied lifetime risk of dementia, stroke and parkinsonism between 1990 and 2016. Among 12 102 individuals (57.7% women) aged ≥45 years free from these diseases at baseline, we studied co-occurrence, and quantified the combined, and disease-specific remaining lifetime risk of these diseases at various ages for men and women separately. We also projected effects on lifetime risk of hypothetical preventive strategies that delay disease onset by 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively.

RESULTS

During follow-up of up to 26 years (156 088 person-years of follow-up), 1489 individuals were diagnosed with dementia, 1285 with stroke and 263 with parkinsonism. Of these individuals, 438 (14.6%) were diagnosed with multiple diseases. Women were almost twice as likely as men to be diagnosed with both stroke and dementia during their lifetime. The lifetime risk for any of these diseases at age 45 was 48.2% (95% CI 47.1% to 51.5%) in women and 36.2% (35.1% to 39.3%) in men. This difference was driven by a higher risk of dementia as the first manifesting disease in women than in men (25.9% vs 13.7%; p<0.001), while this was similar for stroke (19.0%vs18.9% in men) and parkinsonism (3.3% vs 3.6% in men). Preventive strategies that delay disease onset with 1 to 3 years could theoretically reduce lifetime risk for developing any of these diseases by 20%-50%.

CONCLUSION

One in two women and one in three men will develop dementia, stroke or parkinsonism during their life. These findings strengthen the call for prioritising the focus on preventive interventions at population level which could substantially reduce the burden of common neurological diseases in the ageing population.