Twenty years on from the introduction of the high risk strategy for stroke and cardiovascular disease prevention: a systematic scoping review

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Early this century, the high risk strategy of primary stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention for individuals shifted away from identifying (and treating, as appropriate) all at-risk individuals towards identifying and treating individuals who exceed arbitrary thresholds of absolute CVD risk. The public health impact of this strategy is uncertain.

METHODS

In our systematic scoping review, the electronic databases (Scopus, MEDLINE, Embase, Google Scholar, Cochrane Library) were searched to identify and appraise publications related to primary CVD/stroke prevention strategies and their effectiveness published in any language from January 1990 to August 2023.

RESULTS

No published randomized controlled trial was found on the effectiveness of the high CVD risk strategy for primary stroke/CVD prevention. Targeting high CVD risk individuals excludes a large proportion of the population from effective blood-pressure-lowering and lipid-lowering treatment and effective CVD prevention. There is also evidence that blood pressure lowering and lipid lowering are beneficial irrespective of blood pressure and cholesterol levels and irrespective of absolute CVD risk and that risk-stratified pharmacological management of blood pressure and lipids to only high CVD risk individuals leads to significant underuse of blood-pressure-lowering and lipid-lowering medications in individuals otherwise eligible for such treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary stroke and CVD prevention needs to be done in all individuals with increased risk of CVD/stroke. Pharmacological management of blood pressure and blood cholesterol should not be solely based on the high CVD risk treatment thresholds. International guidelines and global strategies for primary CVD/stroke prevention need to be revised.

Usability and feasibility of PreventS-MD web app for stroke prevention

BACKGROUND

Most strokes and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are potentially preventable if their risk factors are identified and well controlled. Digital platforms, such as the PreventS-MD web app (PreventS-MD) may aid health care professionals (HCPs) in assessing and managing risk factors and promoting lifestyle changes for their patients.

METHODS

This is a mixed-methods cross-sectional two-phase survey using a largely positivist (quantitative and qualitative) framework. During Phase 1, a prototype of PreventS-MD was tested internationally by 59 of 69 consenting HCPs of different backgrounds, age, sex, working experience, and specialties using hypothetical data. Collected comments/suggestions from the study HCPs in Phase 1 were reviewed and implemented. In Phase 2, a near-final version of PreventS-MD was developed and tested by 58 of 72 consenting HCPs using both hypothetical and real patient (n = 10) data. Qualitative semi-structured interviews with real patients (n = 10) were conducted, and 1 month adherence to the preventive recommendations was assessed by self-reporting. The four System Usability Scale (SUS) groups of scores (0-50 unacceptable; 51-68 poor; 68-80.3 good; >80.3 excellent) were used to determine usability of PreventS-MD.

FINDINGS

Ninety-nine HCPs from 27 countries (45% from low- to middle-income countries) participated in the study, and out of them, 10 HCPs were involved in the development of PreventS before the study, and therefore were not involved in the survey. Of the remaining 89 HCPs, 69 consented to the first phase of the survey, and 59 of them completed the first phase of the survey (response rate 86%), and 58 completed the second phase of the survey (response rate 84%). The SUS scores supported good usability of the prototype (mean score = 80.2; 95% CI [77.0-84.0]) and excellent usability of the final version of PreventS-MD (mean score = 81.7; 95% CI [79.1-84.3]) in the field. Scores were not affected by the age, sex, working experience, or specialty of the HCPs. One-month follow-up of the patients confirmed the high level of satisfaction/acceptability of PreventS-MD and (100%) adherence to the recommendations.

INTERPRETATION

The PreventS-MD web app has a high level of usability, feasibility, and satisfaction by HCPs and individuals at risk of stroke/CVD. Individuals at risk of stroke/CVD demonstrated a high level of confidence and motivation in following and adhering to preventive recommendations generated by PreventS-MD.

Proposed solutions to anthropogenic climate change: A systematic literature review and a new way forward

Humanity is now facing what may be the biggest challenge to its existence: irreversible climate change brought about by human activity. Our planet is in a state of emergency, and we only have a short window of time (7-8 years) to enact meaningful change. The goal of this systematic literature review is to summarize the peer-reviewed literature on proposed solutions to climate change in the last 20 years (2002-2022), and to propose a framework for a unified approach to solving this climate change crisis. Solutions reviewed include a transition toward use of renewable energy resources, reduced energy consumption, rethinking the global transport sector, and nature-based solutions. This review highlights one of the most important but overlooked pieces in the puzzle of solving the climate change problem - the gradual shift to a plant-based diet and global phaseout of factory (industrialized animal) farming, the most damaging and prolific form of animal agriculture. The gradual global phaseout of industrialized animal farming can be achieved by increasingly replacing animal meat and other animal products with plant-based products, ending government subsidies for animal-based meat, dairy, and eggs, and initiating taxes on such products. Failure to act will ultimately result in a scenario of irreversible climate change with widespread famine and disease, global devastation, climate refugees, and warfare. We therefore suggest an "All Life" approach, invoking the interconnectedness of all life forms on our planet. The logistics for achieving this include a global standardization of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) or similar measures and the introduction of a regulatory body for verification of such measures. These approaches will help deliver environmental and sustainability benefits for our planet far beyond an immediate reduction in global warming.

The HEARTS partner forum-supporting implementation of HEARTS to treat and control hypertension

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading causes of death (18. 6 million deaths annually) and disability (393 million disability-adjusted life-years lost annually), worldwide. High blood pressure is the most important preventable risk factor for CVD and deaths, worldwide (10.8 million deaths annually). In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) launched the Global Hearts initiative to support governments in their quest to prevent and control CVD. HEARTS is the core technical package of the initiative and takes a public health approach to treating hypertension and other CVD risk factors at the primary health care level. The HEARTS Partner Forum, led by WHO, brings together the following 11 partner organizations: American Heart Association (AHA), Center for Chronic Disease Control (CCDC), International Society of Hypertension (ISH), International Society of Nephrology (ISN), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Resolve to Save Lives (RTSL), US CDC, World Hypertension League (WHL), World Heart Federation (WHF) and World Stroke Organization (WSO). The partners support countries in their implementation of the HEARTS technical package in various ways, including providing technical expertise, catalytic funding, capacity building and evidence generation and dissemination. HEARTS has demonstrated the feasibility and acceptability of a public health approach, with more than seven million people already on treatment for hypertension using a simple, algorithmic HEARTS approach. Additionally, HEARTS has demonstrated the feasibility of using hypertension as a pathfinder to universal health coverage and should be a key intervention of all basic benefit packages. The partner forum continues to find ways to expand support and reinvigorate enthusiasm and attention on preventing CVD. Proposed future HEARTS Partner Forum activities are related to more concrete information sharing between partners and among countries, expanded areas of partner synergy, support for implementation, capacity building, and advocacy with country ministries of health, professional societies, academy and civil societies organizations. Advancing toward the shared goals of the HEARTS partners will require a more formal, structured approach to the forum and include goals, targets and published reports. In this way, the HEARTS Partner Forum will mirror successful global partnerships on communicable diseases and assist countries in reducing CVD mortality and achieving global sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Polypill: Benefits Seen for Stroke and Other Outcomes

A polypill-type strategy for primary prevention was first published at the turn of the century and advised that a multi-ingredient pill applied to an adult population would prevent up to 80% of cardiovascular and stroke events. Such a pill should contain small doses of antihypertensives, lipid-lowering drugs, and some nutrients. The startling increase of the global stroke burden has led to a revival of this concept and the propagation of a population-based prevention strategy. Recent cardiovascular fixed-dose combination trials have shown a significant effect in reducing not only blood pressure and cholesterol levels but also in reducing cardiovascular and stroke events. In most of the studies, the study population was for secondary prevention and the total number of strokes was small. Nevertheless, it is now clear that a large proportion of primary prevention must take this path. It is especially promising when combined with community health workers interventions for modifying risk behavior. While a polypill-type approach seems most efficacious in underserved regions of high-income countries as well as in low- and middle-income countries, it seems to have a large overall effect in spite of some problems with nonadherence or potential side effects. It should be available and affordable for large target populations. Larger phase 4 studies are under way.

C-REGS 2 - Design and methodology of a high-quality comparative effectiveness observational trial

The main aim of this study is to systematically record Cerebrolysin treatment modalities and concomitant medication, according to local standards, in patients with moderate to severe neurological deficits after acute ischemic stroke and to assess the impact of these parameters on therapy outcome during early rehabilitation (day 21) and on day 90. An open observational treatment design based on the principles of high-quality comparative effectiveness research (HQCER) has been chosen to capture the therapies as applied in real-world clinical practice. HQCER opens a new horizon for strengthening the validity of the results from observational trials, thereby enhancing the associated level of evidence. Rigorous pre-specification of analytical procedures and tight risk-based centralized monitoring were additional measures to improve the impact of the observational approach. The value for real-world studies has become obvious, and such studies based on comparative effectiveness designs supplement the classical study designs by enabling the inclusion of larger proband numbers and more statistical reliability for practical use.

World Stroke Organization (WSO): Global Stroke Fact Sheet 2022

Stroke remains the second-leading cause of death and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (as expressed by disability-adjusted life-years lost - DALYs) in the world. The estimated global cost of stroke is over US$721 billion (0.66% of the global GDP). From 1990 to 2019, the burden (in terms of the absolute number of cases) increased substantially (70.0% increase in incident strokes, 43.0% deaths from stroke, 102.0% prevalent strokes, and 143.0% DALYs), with the bulk of the global stroke burden (86.0% of deaths and 89.0% of DALYs) residing in lower-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMIC). This World Stroke Organisation (WSO) Global Stroke Fact Sheet 2022 provides the most updated information that can be used to inform communication with all internal and external stakeholders; all statistics have been reviewed and approved for use by the WSO Executive Committee as well as leaders from the Global Burden of Disease research group.

Primary stroke prevention worldwide: translating evidence into action

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and the third leading cause of disability worldwide and its burden is increasing rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries, many of which are unable to face the challenges it imposes. In this Health Policy paper on primary stroke prevention, we provide an overview of the current situation regarding primary prevention services, estimate the cost of stroke and stroke prevention, and identify deficiencies in existing guidelines and gaps in primary prevention. We also offer a set of pragmatic solutions for implementation of primary stroke prevention, with an emphasis on the role of governments and population-wide strategies, including task-shifting and sharing and health system re-engineering. Implementation of primary stroke prevention involves patients, health professionals, funders, policy makers, implementation partners, and the entire population along the life course.

Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation Development in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: An Analysis of the RE-SPECT ESUS Trial

BACKGROUND

A proportion of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source have silent atrial fibrillation (AF) or develop AF after the initial evaluation. Better understanding of the risk for development of AF is critical to implement optimal monitoring strategies with the goal of preventing recurrent stroke attributable to underlying AF. The RE-SPECT ESUS trial (Randomized, Double-Blind Evaluation in Secondary Stroke Prevention Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of the Oral Thrombin Inhibitor Dabigatran Etexilate Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) provides an opportunity to assess predictors for developing AF and associated recurrent stroke.

METHODS

RE-SPECT ESUS was a randomized, controlled trial (564 sites, 42 countries) assessing dabigatran versus aspirin for the prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. Of 5390 patients enrolled and followed for a median of 19 months, 403 (7.5%) were found to develop AF reported as an adverse event or using cardiac monitoring per standard clinical care. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were performed to define predictors of AF.

RESULTS

In the multivariable model, older age (odds ratio for 10-year increase, 1.99 [95% CI, 1.78-2.23]; P<0.001), hypertension (odds ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.03-1.79]; P=0.0304), diabetes (odds ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.56-0.96]; P=0.022), and body mass index (odds ratio for 5-U increase, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.16-1.43]; P<0.001) were independent predictors of AF during the study. In a sensitivity analysis restricted to 1117 patients with baseline NT-proBNP (N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide) measurements, only older age and higher NT-proBNP were significant independent predictors of AF. Performance of several published predictive models was assessed, including HAVOC (AF risk score based on hypertension, age ≥75 years, valvular heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, congestive heart failure, and coronary artery disease) and CHA₂DS₂-VASc (stroke risk score based on congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years [doubled], diabetes, previous stroke, transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism [doubled], vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years, and sex category [female]) scores, and higher scores were associated with higher rates of developing AF.

CONCLUSIONS

Besides age, the most important variable, several other factors, including hypertension, higher body mass index, and lack of diabetes, are independent predictors of AF after embolic stroke of undetermined source. When baseline NT-proBNP was available, only older age and elevation of this biomarker were predictive of subsequent AF. Understanding who is at higher risk of developing AF will assist in identifying patients who may benefit from more intense, long-term cardiac monitoring. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02239120.

COVID-19-related delays of botulinum toxin injections have a negative impact on the quality of life of patients with dystonia and spasticity: a single-center ambulatory care study

BACKGROUND

Botulinum toxin A (BoNT-A) is considered a safe and effective treatment for spasticity and dystonia. Individual interinjection intervals are critical for the maintenance of the effect. In Austria, BoNT outpatient clinics were shutdown from November to December 2020 during COVID-19 control measures, leading to rescheduling of BoNT-A injections. This survey aimed at investigating the influence of injection delays on symptoms, physical functioning, and quality of life (QoL) of the affected patients.

METHODS

Between April and July 2021, 32 outpatients (21 females, mean age: 63.4 ± 12.1 years) treated ≥ 12 months at the BoNT outpatient clinic Horn-Allentsteig (Austria) and experienced ≥ 2 week injection delays, completed a structured face-to-face questionnaire.

RESULTS

Indications were dystonia (34%), spasticity (63%), and hyperhidrosis (3%). Injections were delayed by 10 weeks (median, range: 2-15). Muscle cramps increased in 95% of patients with spasticity, muscle twitches in 91% of those with dystonia, and pain in 9% and 60% for dystonia and spasticity, respectively. Overall, 75% reported functional worsening, and deterioration in QoL by 62.6% ± 16.8 (mean ± SD). The impact on QoL correlated with the subjective global improvement induced by BoNT-A (Rs: 0.625; p < 0.001). For 75%, long-term assurance of BoNT-A therapy was very important, and 81% felt their patient rights not respected.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19-related delays in BoNT-A injections illustrate the importance of this therapy for symptom relief, functional outcome, and QoL in patients suffering from involuntary muscle hyperactivity. BoNT-A therapy is essential and has to be guaranteed even in circumstances such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fighting Against Stroke in Latin America: A Joint Effort of Medical Professional Societies and Governments

Introduction: Stroke is one of the leading causes of death in Latin America, a region with countless gaps to be addressed to decrease its burden. In 2018, at the first Latin American Stroke Ministerial Meeting, stroke physician and healthcare manager representatives from 13 countries signed the Declaration of Gramado with the priorities to improve the region, with the commitment to implement all evidence-based strategies for stroke care. The second meeting in March 2020 reviewed the achievements in 2 years and discussed new objectives. This paper will review the 2-year advances and future plans of the Latin American alliance for stroke. Method: In March 2020, a survey based on the Declaration of Gramado items was sent to the neurologists participants of the Stroke Ministerial Meetings. The results were confirmed with representatives of the Ministries of Health and leaders from the countries at the second Latin American Stroke Ministerial Meeting. Results: In 2 years, public stroke awareness initiatives increased from 25 to 75% of countries. All countries have started programs to encourage physical activity, and there has been an increase in the number of countries that implement, at least partially, strategies to identify and treat hypertension, diabetes, and lifestyle risk factors. Programs to identify and treat dyslipidemia and atrial fibrillation still remained poor. The number of stroke centers increased from 322 to 448, all of them providing intravenous thrombolysis, with an increase in countries with stroke units. All countries have mechanical thrombectomy, but mostly restricted to a few private hospitals. Pre-hospital organization remains limited. The utilization of telemedicine has increased but is restricted to a few hospitals and is not widely available throughout the country. Patients have late, if any, access to rehabilitation after hospital discharge. Conclusion: The initiative to collaborate, exchange experiences, and unite societies and governments to improve stroke care in Latin America has yielded good results. Important advances have been made in the region in terms of increasing the number of acute stroke care services, implementing reperfusion treatments and creating programs for the detection and treatment of risk factors. We hope that this approach can reduce inequalities in stroke care in Latin America and serves as a model for other under-resourced environments.

Quality of stroke guidelines in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To identify gaps in national stroke guidelines that could be bridged to enhance the quality of stroke care services in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We systematically searched medical databases and websites of medical societies and contacted international organizations. Country-specific guidelines on care and control of stroke in any language published from 2010 to 2020 were eligible for inclusion. We reviewed each included guideline for coverage of four key components of stroke services (surveillance, prevention, acute care and rehabilitation). We also assessed compliance with the eight Institute of Medicine standards for clinical practice guidelines, the ease of implementation of guidelines and plans for dissemination to target audiences.

FINDINGS

We reviewed 108 eligible guidelines from 47 countries, including four low-income, 24 middle-income and 19 high-income countries. Globally, fewer of the guidelines covered primary stroke prevention compared with other components of care, with none recommending surveillance. Guidelines on stroke in low- and middle-income countries fell short of the required standards for guideline development; breadth of target audience; coverage of the four components of stroke services; and adaptation to socioeconomic context. Fewer low- and middle-income country guidelines demonstrated transparency than those from high-income countries. Less than a quarter of guidelines encompassed detailed implementation plans and socioeconomic considerations.

CONCLUSION

Guidelines on stroke in low- and middle-income countries need to be developed in conjunction with a wider category of health-care providers and stakeholders, with a full spectrum of translatable, context-appropriate interventions.

[São Paulo call to action for the prevention and control of high blood pressure: 2020Llamado a la acción de San Pablo para la prevención y el control de la hipertensión arterial, 2020]

About 1/4th of adults have high blood pressure which is the single most important risk for death (including heart disease and stroke).There are effective policies that could facilitate people making healthy choices to prevent raised blood pressure, and if fully implemented, could largely prevent hypertension from occurring.Hypertension is easy to screen and treat for BUT only about 50% of adults with hypertension are aware of their condition and only about 1 in 7 is adequately treated.Preventing and controlling high blood pressure is the major mechanism for NCD prevention and control and a model for other NCD risks.Effective lifestyle and drug treatments could prevent and control hypertension in most individuals if systematically applied to the population, simple interventions are feasible in all settings, and can be used to enhance primary care.Urgent sustained action is needed is needed for effective public policies and health system changes to prevent and control hypertension.

[São Paulo call to action for the prevention and control of high blood pressure: 2020Chamado à ação de São Paulo para prevenção e controle da hipertensão arterial: 2020]

About 1/4th of adults have high blood pressure which is the single most important risk for death (including heart disease and stroke).There are effective policies that could facilitate people making healthy choices to prevent raised blood pressure, and if fully implemented, could largely prevent hypertension from occurring.Hypertension is easy to screen and treat for BUT only about 50% of adults with hypertension are aware of their condition and only about 1 in 7 is adequately treated.Preventing and controlling high blood pressure is the major mechanism for NCD prevention and control and a model for other NCD risks.Effective lifestyle and drug treatments could prevent and control hypertension in most individuals if systematically applied to the population, simple interventions are feasible in all settings, and can be used to enhance primary care.Urgent sustained action is needed is needed for effective public policies and health system changes to prevent and control hypertension.

Comparison of oral glucose tolerance test and HbA1c in detection of disorders of glucose metabolism in patients with acute stroke

Background

Diabetes is an increasingly important risk factor for ischemic stroke and worsens stroke prognosis. Yet a large proportion of stroke patients who are eventually diabetic are undiagnosed. Therefore, it is important to have sensitive assessment of unrecognized hyperglycaemia in stroke patients.

Design

Secondary outcome analysis of a randomized controlled trial focussing on parameters of glucose metabolism and detection of diabetes and prediabetes in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

Methods

A total of 130 consecutively admitted patients with AIS without previously known type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were screened for diabetes or prediabetes as part of secondary outcome analysis of a randomized controlled trial that tested lifestyle intervention to prevent post-stroke cognitive decline. Patients had the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) measurements in the second week after stroke onset and after 1 year. The detection rates of diabetes and prediabetes based on the OGTT or HbA1c values were compared.

Results

By any of the applied tests at the second week after stroke onset 62 of 130 patients (48%) had prediabetes or T2DM. Seventy-five patients had results from both tests available, the OGTT and HbA1c; according to the OGTT 40 (53.3%) patients had normal glucose metabolism, 33 (44%) had prediabetes, two (2.7%) T2DM. In 50 (66.7%) patients the HbA1c results were normal, 24 (32%) in the prediabetic and one (1.3%) in the diabetic range. The detection rate for disorders of glucose metabolism was 10% higher (absolute difference; relative difference 29%) with the OGTT compared with HbA1c. After 1 year the detection rate for prediabetes or T2DM was 7% higher with the OGTT (26% relative difference).

The study intervention led to a more favourable evolution of glycemic status after 1 year.

Conclusion

The OGTT is a more sensitive screening tool than HbA1c for the detection of previously unrecognized glycemic disorders in patients with acute stroke with an at least a 25% relative difference in detection rate. Therefore, an OGTT should be performed in all patients with stroke with no history of diabetes.

Trial registrationhttp://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01109836.

Antithrombotic Treatment of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: RE-SPECT ESUS Elderly and Renally Impaired Subgroups

Background and Purpose- The RE-SPECT ESUS trial (Randomized, Double-Blind, Evaluation in Secondary Stroke Prevention Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of the Oral Thrombin Inhibitor Dabigatran Etexilate Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) tested the hypothesis that dabigatran would be superior to aspirin for the prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. This exploratory subgroup analysis investigates the impact of age, renal function (both predefined), and dabigatran dose (post hoc) on the rates of recurrent stroke and major bleeding. Methods- RE-SPECT ESUS was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial of dabigatran 150 or 110 mg (for patients aged ≥75 years and/or with creatinine clearance 30 to <50 mL/minute) twice daily compared with aspirin 100 mg once daily. The primary outcome was recurrent stroke. Results- The trial, which enrolled 5390 patients from December 2014 to January 2018, did not demonstrate superiority of dabigatran versus aspirin for prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. However, among the population qualifying for the lower dabigatran dose, the rate of recurrent stroke was reduced with dabigatran versus aspirin (7.4% versus 13.0%; hazard ratio, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39-0.82]; interaction P=0.01). This was driven mainly by the subgroup aged ≥75 years (7.8% versus 12.4%; hazard ratio, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.43-0.94]; interaction P=0.10). Stroke rates tended to be lower with dabigatran versus aspirin with declining renal function. Risks for major bleeding were similar between treatments, irrespective of renal function, but with a trend for lower bleeding rates with dabigatran versus aspirin in older patients. Conclusions- In subgroup analyses of RE-SPECT ESUS, dabigatran reduced the rate of recurrent stroke compared with aspirin in patients qualifying for the lower dose of dabigatran. These results are hypothesis-generating. Aspirin remains the standard antithrombotic treatment for patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02239120.

COVID-19 and stroke-A global World Stroke Organization perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic affecting all parts of the world is having huge implications for stroke care. Not only do stroke patients appear to be more susceptible to severe infection, but the pandemic is having major implications on how we deliver stroke care, while ensuing safety of both our patients and health care professionals. COVID-19 infection itself has also been described as a risk factor for stroke. The World Stroke Organization has been monitoring the impact of the pandemic globally, and has identified an initial marked fall in stroke presentations as well as a widespread impact on stroke services. The pandemic is changing the way we deliver care, and has highlighted the enormous potential of telemedicine in stroke care.

Conceptual framework for establishing the African Stroke Organization

Africa is the world's most genetically diverse, second largest, and second most populous continent, with over one billion people distributed across 54 countries. With a 23% lifetime risk of stroke, Africa has some of the highest rates of stroke worldwide and many occur in the prime of life with huge economic losses and grave implications for the individual, family, and the society in terms of mental capital, productivity, and socioeconomic progress. Tackling the escalating burden of stroke in Africa requires prioritized, multipronged, and inter-sectoral strategies tailored to the unique African epidemiological, cultural, socioeconomic, and lifestyle landscape. The African Stroke Organization (ASO) is a new pan-African coalition that brings together stroke researchers, clinicians, and other health-care professionals with participation of national and regional stroke societies and stroke support organizations. With a vision to reduce the rapidly increasing burden of stroke in Africa, the ASO has a four-pronged focus on (1) research, (2) capacity building, (3) development of stroke services, and (4) collaboration with all stakeholders. This will be delivered through advocacy, awareness, and empowerment initiatives to bring about people-focused changes in policy, clinical practice, and public education. In the spirit of the African philosophy of Ubuntu "I am because we are," the ASO will harness the power of diversity, inclusiveness, togetherness, and team work to build a strong, enduring, and impactful platform for tackling stroke in Africa.

Temporal trends in intracerebral hemorrhage: Evidence from the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry

Background

To assess changes in frequency, severity, complications, therapy and outcome of intracerebral hemorrhage in patients treated in stroke units in Austria, we evaluated data from the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry between 2008 and 2016.

Methods and findings

Data of 6707 cases of ICH covering a time span of 9 years and including information on age, risk factors, pre-stroke modified Rankin Score (mRS), baseline stroke severity (NIHSS), complications, therapy, functional outcome, and mortality were extracted from the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry. A multivariate regularized logistic regression model and linear models for temporal dependence were computed for analyzing statistical inference and time trends. Bonferroni correction was applied to correct for multiple testing.

Between 2008 and 2016, the proportion of ICH admissions to stroke units in Austria declined, with a shift among patients towards older age (>70 years, p = 0.04) and lower admission NIHSS scores. While no significant time trends in risk factors, pre-stroke mRS and medical complications were observed, therapeutic interventions declined significantly (p<0.001). Three-month mortality increased over the years independently (p = 0.003).

Conclusions

Despite declining incidence and clinical severity of ICH we observed a clear increase in three-month mortality. This effect seems to be independent of predictors including age, admission NIHSS, pre-morbid MRS, or medical complications. The observations from this large retrospective database cohort study underline an urgent call for action in the therapy of ICH.

Multi-level community interventions for primary stroke prevention: A conceptual approach by the World Stroke Organization

The increasing burden of stroke and dementia emphasizes the need for new, well-tolerated and cost-effective primary prevention strategies that can reduce the risks of stroke and dementia worldwide, and specifically in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

 This paper outlines conceptual frameworks of three primary stroke prevention strategies: (a) the “polypill” strategy; (b) a “population-wide” strategy; and (c) a “motivational population-wide” strategy.

 (a) A polypill containing generic low-dose ingredients of blood pressure and lipid-lowering medications (e.g. candesartan 16 mg, amlodipine 2.5 mg, and rosuvastatin 10 mg) seems a safe and cost-effective approach for primary prevention of stroke and dementia.

 (b) A population-wide strategy reducing cardiovascular risk factors in the whole population, regardless of the level of risk is the most effective primary prevention strategy. A motivational population-wide strategy for the modification of health behaviors (e.g. smoking, diet, physical activity) should be based on the principles of cognitive behavioral therapy. Mobile technologies, such as smartphones, offer an ideal interface for behavioral interventions (e.g. Stroke Riskometer app) even in LMICs.

 (c) Community health workers can improve the maintenance of lifestyle changes as well as the adherence to medication, especially in resource poor areas. An adequate training of community health workers is a key point.

Conclusion

An effective primary stroke prevention strategy on a global scale should integrate pharmacological (polypill) and lifestyle modifications (motivational population-wide strategy) interventions. Side effects of such an integrative approach are expected to be minimal and the benefits among individuals at low-to-moderate risk of stroke could be significant. In the future, pragmatic field trials will provide more evidence.

Priorities to reduce the burden of stroke in Latin American countries

The large and increasing burden of stroke in Latin American countries, and the need to meet the UN and WHO requirements for reducing the burden from non-communicable disorders (including stroke), brought together stroke experts and representatives of the Ministries of Health of 13 Latin American countries for the 1st Latin American Stroke Ministerial meeting in Gramado, Brazil, to discuss the problem and identify ways of cooperating to reduce the burden of stroke in the region. Discussions were focused on the regional and country-specific activities associated with stroke prevention and treatment, including public stroke awareness, prevention strategies, delivery and organisation of care, clinical practice gaps, and unmet needs. The meeting culminated with the adoption of the special Gramado Declaration, signed by all Ministerial officials who attended the meeting. With agreed priorities for stroke prevention, treatment, and research, an opportunity now exists to translate this Declaration into an action plan to reduce the burden of stroke.

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016

BACKGROUND

The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.

RESULTS

The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Standards of practice in acute ischemic stroke intervention: International recommendations

This article was first published in JNIS. Cite this article as: Pierot L, Jayaraman MV, Szikora I, et al. Standards of practice in acute ischemic stroke intervention: international recommendations. Journal of NeuroInterventional Surgery. Published Online First: 28 August 2018. doi: 10.1136/neurintsurg-2018-014287.

Cerebrolysin: a multi-target drug for recovery after stroke

INTRODUCTION

Cerebrolysin is a neuropeptide preparation with neurotrophic effects and promotes recovery after brain injury. Its preclinical profile promises wide applications due to its multi-target effects. Currently, Cerebrolysin is used for treatment of cerebral ischemia and neurodegeneration. Areas covered: In stroke, earlier clinical trials with Cerebrolysin were performed mostly in mildly affected stroke populations, which usually have a favorable prognosis. Due to this selection, a floor or ceiling effect of recovery measures in the mild cases may have prevented to show a clear benefit between treatment groups. In contrast, subgroup analyses of more severely affected patients reveal a strikingly positive effect for enhanced recovery. Based on the findings from several studies, it became evident that the effect size of Cerebrolysin was increasing with stroke severity. Other controlled studies showed that Cerebrolysin can be safely used in combination with thrombolysis. More recently, Cerebrolysin has been tested not only for neuroprotection but also for its neurorecovery potential and also showed efficacy in patients with moderate to severe strokes. Expert commentary: Cerebrolysin shows a benefit mostly in moderate to severe ischemic stroke patients and an overall significant effect for functional recovery when combined with neurorehabilitation versus neurorehabilitation alone. This gives lead to the planning of a more rigorous study design in the future.

Multidomain intervention for the prevention of cognitive decline after stroke - a pooled patient-level data analysis

Background and purpose

The aim of this pooled patient‐level data analysis was to test if multidomain interventions, addressing several modifiable vascular risk factors simultaneously, are more effective than usual post‐stroke care for the prevention of cognitive decline after stroke.

Methods

This pooled patient‐level data analysis included two randomized controlled trials using a multidomain approach to target vascular risk factors in stroke patients and cognition as primary outcome. Changes from baseline to 12 months in the trail making test (TMT)‐A, TMT‐B and 10‐words test were analysed using stepwise backward linear mixed models with study as random factor. Two analyses were based on the intention‐to‐treat (ITT) principle using different imputation approaches and one was based on complete cases.

Results

Data from 322 patients (157 assigned to multidomain intervention and 165 to standard care) were analysed. Differences between randomization groups for TMT‐A scores were found in one ITT model (P = 0.014) and approached significance in the second ITT model (P = 0.087) and for complete cases (P = 0.091). No significant intervention effects were found for any of the other cognitive variables.

Conclusion

We found indications that multidomain interventions compared with standard care can improve the scores in TMT‐A at 1 year after stroke but not those for TMT‐B or the 10‐words test. These results have to be interpreted with caution due to the small number of patients.