Predicting risk of undiagnosed COPD: development and validation of the TargetCOPD score

The Accuracy of PUMA Questionnaire in Combination With Peak Expiratory Flow Rate to Identify At-risk, Undiagnosed COPD Patients

INTRODUCTION

The English PUMA questionnaire emerges as an effective COPD case-finding tool. We aimed to use the PUMA questionnaire in combination with peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) to improve case-finding efficacy in Chinese population.

METHODS

This cross-sectional, observational study included two stages: translating English to Chinese PUMA (C-PUMA) questionnaire with linguistic validation and psychometric evaluation, followed by clinical validation. Eligible participants (with age ≥40 years, respiratory symptoms, smoking history ≥10 pack-years) were enrolled and subjected to three questionnaires (C-PUMA, COPD assessment test [CAT], and generic health survey [SF-12V2]), PEFR measurement, and confirmatory spirometry. The C-PUMA score and PEFR were incorporated into a PUMA-PEFR prediction model applying binary logistic regression coefficients to estimate the probability of COPD (PCOPD).

RESULTS

C-PUMA was finalized through standard forward-backward translation processes and confirmation of good readability, comprehensibility, and reliability. In clinical validation, 240 participants completed the study. 78/240 (32.5%) were diagnosed with COPD. C-PUMA exhibited significant validity (correlated with CAT or physical component scores of SF-12V2, both P<0.05, respectively). PUMA-PEFR model had higher diagnostic accuracy than C-PUMA alone (area under ROC curve, 0.893 vs. 0.749, P<0.05). The best cutoff values of C-PUMA and PUMA-PEFR model (PCOPD) were ≥6 and ≥0.39, accounting for a sensitivity/specificity/numbers needed to screen of 77%/64%/3 and 79%/88%/2, respectively. C-PUMA ≥5 detected more underdiagnosed patients, up to 11.5% (vs. C-PUMA ≥6).

CONCLUSION

C-PUMA is well-validated. The PUMA-PEFR model provides more accurate and cost-effective case-finding efficacy than C-PUMA alone in at-risk, undiagnosed COPD patients. These tools can be useful to detect COPD early.

Current Progress of COPD Early Detection: Key Points and Novel Strategies

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, with approximately 70% to 80% of adults with COPD being undiagnosed. Patients with undiagnosed COPD are at increased risk of poor outcomes and a worsened quality of life, making early detection a crucial strategy to mitigate the impact of COPD and reduce the burden on healthcare systems. In the past decade, increased interest has been focused on the development of effective strategies and instrument for COPD early detection. However, identifying undiagnosed cases of COPD is still challenging. Both screening and case-finding approaches have been adopted to identify undiagnosed COPD, with case-finding being recommended by the 2023 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guideline and the updated United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPTF) recommendation. Nonetheless, the approaches, criteria, and instruments used for early detection of COPD are varied. However, advances in the taxonomy and risk factors of COPD are continuously being investigated. It is important to continuously assess the current state of knowledge on COPD early detection, given the challenges associated with identifying undiagnosed COPD. This review aims to highlight recent advances in early detection of COPD. To discuss the current challenge and opportunity in COPD early detection, providing an overview of existing literature on COPD case-finding strategies, including the approaches, criteria for subjects, and instruments. The review also summarizes the current progress in COPD case-findings and proposes a COPD case-finding flowchart as an efficient method for identifying at risk COPD patients.

Proactive Electronic Visits for Smoking Cessation and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Screening in Primary Care: Randomized Controlled Trial of Feasibility, Acceptability, and Efficacy

BACKGROUND

Most smokers with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have not yet been diagnosed, a statistic that has remained unchanged for over two decades. A dual-focused telehealth intervention that promotes smoking cessation, while also facilitating COPD screening, could help address national priorities to improve the diagnosis, prevention, treatment, and management of COPD. The purpose of this study was to preliminarily evaluate an integrated asynchronous smoking cessation and COPD screening e-visit (electronic visit) that could be delivered proactively to adult smokers at risk for COPD, who are treated within primary care.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of this study were (1) to examine e-visit feasibility and acceptability, particularly as compared to in-lab diagnostic pulmonary function testing (PFT), and (2) to examine the efficacy of smoking cessation e-visits relative to treatment as usual (TAU), all within primary care.

METHODS

In a randomized clinical trial, 125 primary care patients who smoke were randomized 2:1 to receive either proactive e-visits or TAU. Participants randomized to the e-visit condition were screened for COPD symptoms via the COPD Assessment in Primary Care to Identify Undiagnosed Respiratory Disease and Exacerbation Risk (CAPTURE). Those with scores ≥2 were invited to complete both home spirometry and in-lab PFTs, in addition to two smoking cessation e-visits. Smoking cessation e-visits assessed smoking history and motivation to quit and included completion of an algorithm to determine the best Food and Drug Administration-approved cessation medication to prescribe. Primary outcomes included measures related to (1) e-visit acceptability, feasibility, and treatment metrics; (2) smoking cessation outcomes (cessation medication use, 24-hour quit attempts, smoking reduction ≥50%, self-reported abstinence, and biochemically confirmed abstinence); and (3) COPD screening outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 85 participants assigned to the e-visits, 64 (75.3%) were invited to complete home spirometry and in-lab PFTs based on CAPTURE. Among those eligible for spirometry, 76.6% (49/64) completed home spirometry, and 35.9% (23/64) completed in-lab PFTs. At 1 month, all cessation outcomes favored the e-visit, with a significant effect for cessation medication use (odds ratio [OR]=3.22). At 3 months, all cessation outcomes except for 24-hour quit attempts favored the e-visit, with significant effects for cessation medication use (OR=3.96) and smoking reduction (OR=3.09).

CONCLUSIONS

A proactive, asynchronous e-visit for smoking cessation and COPD screening may offer a feasible, efficacious approach for broad interventions within primary care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04155073; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04155073.

Pooled Cohort Probability Score for Subclinical Airflow Obstruction

Rationale: Early detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a public health priority. Airflow obstruction is the single most important risk factor for adverse COPD outcomes, but spirometry is not routinely recommended for screening. Objectives: To describe the burden of subclinical airflow obstruction (SAO) and to develop a probability score for SAO to inform potential detection and prevention programs. Methods: Lung function and clinical data were harmonized and pooled across nine U.S. general population cohorts. Adults with respiratory symptoms, inhaler use, or prior diagnosis of COPD or asthma were excluded. A probability score for prevalent SAO (forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity < 0.70) was developed via hierarchical group-lasso regularization from clinical variables in strata of sex and smoking status, and its discriminative accuracy for SAO was assessed in the pooled cohort as well as in an external validation cohort (NHANES [National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey] 2011-2012). Incident hospitalizations and deaths due to COPD (respiratory events) were defined by adjudication or administrative criteria in four of nine cohorts. Results: Of 33,546 participants (mean age 52 yr, 54% female, 44% non-Hispanic White), 4,424 (13.2%) had prevalent SAO. The incidence of respiratory events (Nat-risk = 14,024) was threefold higher in participants with SAO versus those without (152 vs. 39 events/10,000 person-years). The probability score, which was based on six commonly available variables (age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, and smoking pack-years) was well calibrated and showed excellent discrimination in both the testing sample (C-statistic, 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.82) and in NHANES (C-statistic, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.86). Among participants with predicted probabilities ⩾ 15%, 3.2 would need to undergo spirometry to detect one case of SAO. Conclusions: Adults with SAO demonstrate excess respiratory hospitalization and mortality. A probability score for SAO using commonly available clinical risk factors may be suitable for targeting screening and primary prevention strategies.

A nationwide analysis on the effects of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease following primary total shoulder arthroplasty for glenohumeral osteoarthritis

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients have been shown in orthopedic literature to have poorer outcomes and higher rates of complications from surgery. In this retrospective review, medical complications, length of stay, and costs were obtained to explore the effects of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on patients undergoing primary total shoulder arthroplasty.

METHODS

Total shoulder arthroplasty cases from January 2005 to March 2014 were queried and analyzed from a nationwide database. Study patients were matched 1:5 to controls by age, sex, and medical comorbidities associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In-hospital length of stay, 90-day medical complications, day of surgery, and total global 90-day episode of care costs were obtained for comparison.

RESULTS

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients were found to have higher incidence and odds (53.91 vs. 11.95%; OR: 3.58, 95%CI: 3.18-3.92, p < 0.0001) of 90-day medical complications, longer in-hospital length of stay (3 vs. 2 days, p < 0.0001), and significantly higher 90-day costs ($14,768.37 vs. $13,379.20, p < 0.0001) following primary total shoulder arthroplasty compared to matched controls.

DISCUSSION

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients undergoing primary total shoulder arthroplasty have higher rates of medical complications, in-hospital length of stay, and costs of care. This represents an important factor that will allow orthopedic surgeons to adequately manage expectations and educate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients of the potential complications which may occur following total shoulder arthroplasty.

Relationship between risk, cumulative burden of exacerbations and mortality in patients with COPD: modelling analysis using data from the ETHOS study

BACKGROUND

The major drivers of cost-effectiveness for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) therapies are the occurrence of exacerbations and deaths. Exacerbations, including acute and long-term events, can cause worsening of COPD and lead to an increased risk of further exacerbations, and ultimately may elevate the risk of death. In contrast to this, health economic models are based on COPD severity progression. In this post hoc analysis of the ETHOS study, we focus on the progression of COPD due to exacerbations and deaths.

METHODS

We fitted semi-parametric and fully parametric multi-state Markov models with the following five progressive states: State 1, no exacerbation; State 2, 1 moderate exacerbation; State 3, ≥ 2 moderate exacerbations; State 4, ≥ 1 severe exacerbations; State 5, death. The models only allowed a patient to transition to a worsened health state, and transitions did not necessarily have to be to the next adjacent state. We used the multi-state models to analyse data from ETHOS, a phase III, 52-week study assessing the efficacy and safety of triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate in moderate-to-very severe COPD.

RESULTS

The Weibull multi-state Markov model showed good fit of the data. In line with clinical evidence, we found a higher mortality risk after a severe exacerbation (11.4-fold relative ratio increase [95% CI, 7.7-17.0], 6.4-fold increase [95% CI, 3.8-10.8] and 5.4-fold increase [95% CI, 2.9-10.3] relative to no exacerbations, 1 moderate exacerbation or ≥ 2 moderate exacerbations, respectively). One moderate exacerbation increased mortality risk 1.8-fold (95% CI, 1.1-2.9) vs no exacerbations. We also found a higher risk of severe exacerbation and mortality following ≥ 2 moderate exacerbations.

CONCLUSION

Multi-state modelling of patients with COPD in ETHOS found an acute and chronic effect of severe exacerbations on mortality risk. Risk was also increased after a moderate exacerbation. Clinical management with effective pharmacotherapies should be optimised to avoid even moderate exacerbations. Modelling with exacerbations could be an alternative to current COPD models focused on disease progression.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02465567.

A Web-Based, Population-Based Cirrhosis Identification and Management System for Improving Cirrhosis Care: Qualitative Formative Evaluation

Background

Cirrhosis, or scarring of the liver, is a debilitating condition that affects millions of US adults. Early identification, linkage to care, and retention of care are critical for preventing severe complications and death from cirrhosis.

Objective

The purpose of this study is to conduct a preimplementation formative evaluation to identify factors that could impact implementation of the Population-Based Cirrhosis Identification and Management System (P-CIMS) in clinics serving patients with cirrhosis. P-CIMS is a web-based informatics tool designed to facilitate patient outreach and cirrhosis care management.

Methods

Semistructured interviews were conducted between January and May 2016 with frontline providers in liver disease and primary care clinics at 3 Veterans Health Administration medical centers. A total of 10 providers were interviewed, including 8 physicians and midlevel providers from liver-related specialty clinics and 2 primary care providers who managed patients with cirrhosis. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research guided the development of the interview guides. Inductive consensus coding and content analysis were used to analyze transcribed interviews and abstracted coded passages, elucidated themes, and insights.

Results

The following themes and subthemes emerged from the analyses: outer setting: needs and resources for patients with cirrhosis; inner setting: readiness for implementation (subthemes: lack of resources, lack of leadership support), and implementation climate (subtheme: competing priorities); characteristics of individuals: role within clinic; knowledge and beliefs about P-CIMS (subtheme: perceived and realized benefits; useful features; suggestions for improvement); and perceptions of current practices in managing cirrhosis cases (subthemes: preimplementation process for identifying and linking patients to cirrhosis care; structural and social barriers to follow-up). Overall, P-CIMS was viewed as a powerful tool for improving linkage and retention, but its integration in the clinical workflow required leadership support, time, and staffing. Providers also cited the need for more intuitive interface elements to enhance usability.

Conclusions

P-CIMS shows promise as a powerful tool for identifying, linking, and retaining care in patients living with cirrhosis. The current evaluation identified several improvements and advantages of P-CIMS over current care processes and provides lessons for others implementing similar population-based identification and management tools in populations with chronic disease.

Case-finding and improving patient outcomes for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care: the BLISS research programme including cluster RCT

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a major contributor to morbidity, mortality and health service costs but is vastly underdiagnosed. Evidence on screening and how best to approach this is not clear. There are also uncertainties around the natural history (prognosis) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and how it impacts on work performance.

Objectives

Work package 1: to evaluate alternative methods of screening for undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care, with clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analyses and an economic model of a routine screening programme. Work package 2: to recruit a primary care chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohort, develop a prognostic model [Birmingham Lung Improvement StudieS (BLISS)] to predict risk of respiratory hospital admissions, validate an existing model to predict mortality risk, address some uncertainties about natural history and explore the potential for a home exercise intervention. Work package 3: to identify which factors are associated with employment, absenteeism, presenteeism (working while unwell) and evaluate the feasibility of offering formal occupational health assessment to improve work performance.

Design

Work package 1: a cluster randomised controlled trial with household-level randomised comparison of two alternative case-finding approaches in the intervention arm. Work package 2: cohort study – focus groups. Work package 3: subcohort – feasibility study.

Setting

Primary care settings in West Midlands, UK.

Participants

Work package 1: 74,818 people who have smoked aged 40–79 years without a previous chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis from 54 general practices. Work package 2: 741 patients with previously diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from 71 practices and participants from the work package 1 randomised controlled trial. Twenty-six patients took part in focus groups. Work package 3: occupational subcohort with 248 patients in paid employment at baseline. Thirty-five patients took part in an occupational health intervention feasibility study.

Interventions

Work package 1: targeted case-finding – symptom screening questionnaire, administered opportunistically or additionally by post, followed by diagnostic post-bronchodilator spirometry. The comparator was routine care. Work package 2: twenty-three candidate variables selected from literature and expert reviews. Work package 3: sociodemographic, clinical and occupational characteristics; occupational health assessment and recommendations.

Main outcome measures

Work package 1: yield (screen-detected chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and cost-effectiveness of case-finding; effectiveness of screening on respiratory hospitalisation and mortality after approximately 4 years. Work package 2: respiratory hospitalisation within 2 years, and barriers to and facilitators of physical activity. Work package 3: work performance – feasibility and acceptability of the occupational health intervention and study processes.

Results

Work package 1: targeted case-finding resulted in greater yield of previously undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease than routine care at 1 year [n = 1278 (4%) vs. n = 337 (1%), respectively; adjusted odds ratio 7.45, 95% confidence interval 4.80 to 11.55], and a model-based estimate of a regular screening programme suggested an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £16,596 per additional quality-adjusted life-year gained. However, long-term follow-up of the trial showed that at ≈4 years there was no clear evidence that case-finding, compared with routine practice, was effective in reducing respiratory admissions (adjusted hazard ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.73 to1.47) or mortality (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.61). Work package 2: 2305 patients, comprising 1564 with previously diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 741 work package 1 participants (330 with and 411 without obstruction), were recruited. The BLISS prognostic model among cohort participants with confirmed airflow obstruction (n = 1894) included 6 of 23 candidate variables (i.e. age, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Assessment Test score, 12-month respiratory admissions, body mass index, diabetes and forced expiratory volume in 1 second percentage predicted). After internal validation and adjustment (uniform shrinkage factor 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 1.02), the model discriminated well in predicting 2-year respiratory hospital admissions (c-statistic 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 0.79). In focus groups, physical activity engagement was related to self-efficacy and symptom severity. Work package 3: in the occupational subcohort, increasing dyspnoea and exposure to inhaled irritants were associated with lower work productivity at baseline. Longitudinally, increasing exacerbations and worsening symptoms, but not a decline in airflow obstruction, were associated with absenteeism and presenteeism. The acceptability of the occupational health intervention was low, leading to low uptake and low implementation of recommendations and making a full trial unfeasible.

Limitations

Work package 1: even with the most intensive approach, only 38% of patients responded to the case-finding invitation. Management of case-found patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care was generally poor, limiting interpretation of the long-term effectiveness of case-finding on clinical outcomes. Work package 2: the components of the BLISS model may not always be routinely available and calculation of the score requires a computerised system. Work package 3: relatively few cohort participants were in paid employment at baseline, limiting the interpretation of predictors of lower work productivity.

Conclusions

This programme has addressed some of the major uncertainties around screening for undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and has resulted in the development of a novel, accurate model for predicting respiratory hospitalisation in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the inception of a primary care chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohort for longer-term follow-up. We have also identified factors that may affect work productivity in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as potential targets for future intervention.

Future work

We plan to obtain data for longer-term follow-up of trial participants at 10 years. The BLISS model needs to be externally validated. Our primary care chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohort is a unique resource for addressing further questions to better understand the prognosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14930255.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 9, No. 13. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Prevalence of COPD among population above 30 years in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

By 2030, Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 aims to reduce the premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is the second leading cause of mortality and disability-adjusted life years in India. This review was conducted to estimate the prevalence of COPD using systematic review and meta-analysis technique.

Method

Search was conducted using six databases for studies on COPD among population above 30 years in India between years 2000 to 2020. Cross-sectional and cohort studies reporting prevalence of COPD and associated risk factors were included in the present review. Screening and data extraction was done by two authors independently. Studies were appraised for quality using the modified New Castle Ottawa scale and reporting quality was assessed using STROBE guidelines.

Result

Our search returned 8973 records, from which 23 records fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Overall, the prevalence of COPD among population aged 30 years and above in India was 7%. Risk factors like active and passive smoking, biomass fuel exposure, environmental tobacco smoke, occupational exposure to dust, indoor and outdoor pollution, and increasing age were reported to have a significant association with COPD among Indian population.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest the need for a multicentric national-level research study to understand COPD burden and its contributing risk factors. The findings also suggest the need for COPD sensitive health literacy program focused on early screening and primary prevention of risk factors for COPD, which may help early initiation of self-management practices, that are crucial for better quality of life.

Understanding Practice Patterns of COPD: A Survey of Physicians in Nepal, Sri Lanka and Malaysia

INTRODUCTION

There is much recent data from Nepal, Sri Lanka and Malaysia that can help us understand the practice patterns of physicians regarding the diagnosis and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in these countries. We conducted this survey to understand the practice patterns of physicians related to the diagnosis and management of COPD in these three countries.

METHODS

This questionnaire-based, observational, multicentre, cross-sectional survey was carried out with 438 randomly selected physicians consulting COPD patients.

RESULTS

In the survey, 73.29% of the physicians consulted at least five COPD patients daily (all patients > 40 years of age). 31.14% of the COPD patients visiting their doctors were women. Among physicians, 95.12% reported that at least 70% of their patients were smokers. 34.18% of the physicians did not routinely use spirometry to diagnose COPD. Most physicians preferred a short-acting β₂-agonist (SABA) (28.19%) in the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) Group-A and long-acting muscarinic receptor antagonist plus long-acting β₂-agonist/inhaled corticosteroids (LAMA + LABA/ICS) in both the GOLD Group-C (39.86%) and Group-D (72.89%) patients. A significant number (40.67%) of physicians preferred LABA/LAMA for their GOLD Group-B patients. A pressurised metered dose inhaler (pMDI) with or without spacer was the most preferred device. Only 23.67% of the physicians believed that at least 70% of their patients had good adherence (> 80%) to therapy. Up to 54.42% of the physicians prescribed inhalation therapy to every COPD patient. Also, 39.95% of the physicians evaluated their patients' inhalation technique on every visit. Up to 52.67% of the physicians advised home nebulisation to > 10% of patients, with nebulised SABA/short-acting muscarinic receptor antagonist (SAMA) being the most preferred management choice. Most physicians offered smoking cessation advice (94.16%) and/or vaccinations (74.30%) as non-pharmacological management, whereas pulmonary rehabilitation was offered by a smaller number of physicians. Cost of therapy and poor technique were the most common reasons for non-adherence to COPD management therapy.

CONCLUSION

Awareness of spirometry can be increased to improve the diagnosis of COPD. Though physicians are following the GOLD strategy recommendations for the pharmacological and non-pharmacological management of COPD, awareness of spirometry could be increased to improve proper diagnosis. Regular device demonstration during each visit can improve the inhalation technique and can possibly increase adherence to treatment.

Dual versus monotherapy with bronchodilators in GOLD group B COPD patients according to baseline FEV1 level: a patient-level pooled analysis of phase-3 randomized clinical trials

Background

Which patients should receive dual therapy as initial treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is only loosely defined. We evaluated if a lower forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) identifies a population more likely to benefit from dual therapy than monotherapy among group B COPD patients in whom Global initiative for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (GOLD) recommends monotherapy as initial treatment.

Methods

This was a patient-level pooled analysis of phase-3 randomized controlled trials involving dual bronchodilators. Study patients were classified into two groups based on the FEV₁ of 50% of the predicted value (GOLD I/II versus GOLD III/IV). We evaluated the efficacy of dual versus monotherapy (long-acting beta-2 agonist [LABA] or long-acting muscarinic antagonist [LAMA]) between these two groups in the following outcomes: changes in trough FEV₁, the St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score, the proportion of SGRQ responders, time to first exacerbation, and risk of adverse events.

Results

A total of 14,449 group B patients from 12 studies were divided into GOLD III/IV (n = 8043) or GOLD I/II group (n = 6406). In the GOLD III/IV group, dual therapy was significantly more effective in improving FEV₁, reducing SGRQ scores, and achieving a higher proportion of SGRQ responders compared with either LABA or LAMA. Dual therapy also showed a significantly longer time to first exacerbation compared with LABA in the GOLD III/IV group. In contrast, in the GOLD I/II group, the benefits of dual therapy over monotherapy were less consistent. Although dual therapy resulted in significantly higher FEV₁ than either LABA or LAMA, it did not show significant differences in the SGRQ score and proportion of SGRQ responders as compared with LABA. The time to first exacerbation was also not significantly different between dual therapy and either LABA or LAMA in the GOLD I/II group.

Conclusions

Dual therapy demonstrated benefits over monotherapy more consistently in patients with lower FEV₁ than those with higher FEV₁.

Specialist respiratory outreach: a case-finding initiative for identifying undiagnosed COPD in primary care

COPD remains largely undiagnosed or is diagnosed late in the course of disease. We report findings of a specialist outreach programme to identify undiagnosed COPD in primary care. An electronic case-finding algorithm identified 1602 at-risk patients from 12 practices who were invited to attend the clinic. Three hundred and eighty-three (23.9%) responded and 288 were enrolled into the study. Forty-eight (16.6%) had undiagnosed mild and 28 (9.7%) had moderate airway obstruction, meeting spirometric diagnostic criteria for COPD. However, at 12 months only 8 suspected COPD patients (10.6%) had received a diagnostic label in their primary care record. This constituted 0.38% of the total patient population, as compared with 0.31% of control practices, p = 0.306. However, if all patients with airway obstruction received a coding of COPD, then the diagnosis rate in the intervention group would have risen by 0.84%. Despite the low take-up and diagnostic yield, this programme suggests that integrated case-finding strategies could improve COPD recognition.

Case-finding for COPD clinic acceptability to patients in GPs across Hampshire: a qualitative study

Despite high mortality and morbidity, COPD remains under-diagnosed. Case-finding strategies are possible, but patients' perspectives are unexplored. Using qualitative methods, we explored the patient perspective of a case-finding intervention among at-risk patients in primary care. Semi-structured telephone interviews were transcribed and thematic analysis utilised. Seven patients without (mean age 64.5 years (58-74), n = 4) and 8 with obstructed spirometry (mean age 63.5 (53-75), n = 4) were interviewed. Themes identified were motives, challenges and concerns regarding attending the clinic. These included wanting to be well; to help with research; concern over negative impact to life from COPD diagnosis; perceived utility of the clinic; quality of information given; staff manner, approachability and knowledge; and perceived effects of the clinic on lifestyle, self-management and symptoms. The intervention was generally deemed useful and reassuring, although shared information was too detailed or irrelevant for some. Several reported positive lifestyle changes, improved symptoms and improved self-management.

Time-ordered comorbidity correlations identify patients at risk of mis- and overdiagnosis

Diagnostic errors are common and can lead to harmful treatments. We present a data-driven, generic approach for identifying patients at risk of being mis- or overdiagnosed, here exemplified by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It has been estimated that 5-60% of all COPD cases are misdiagnosed. High-throughput methods are therefore needed in this domain. We have used a national patient registry, which contains hospital diagnoses for 6.9 million patients across the entire Danish population for 21 years and identified statistically significant disease trajectories for COPD patients. Using 284,154 patients diagnosed with COPD, we identified frequent disease trajectories comprising time-ordered comorbidities. Interestingly, as many as 42,459 patients did not present with these time-ordered, common comorbidities. Comparison of the individual disease history for each non-follower to the COPD trajectories, demonstrated that 9597 patients were unusual. Survival analysis showed that this group died significantly earlier than COPD patients following a trajectory. Out of the 9597 patients, we identified one subgroup comprising 2185 patients at risk of misdiagnosed COPD without the typical events of COPD patients. In all, 10% of these patients were diagnosed with lung cancer, and it seems likely that they are underdiagnosed for lung cancer as their laboratory test values and survival pattern are similar to such patients. Furthermore, only 4% had a lung function test to confirm the COPD diagnosis. Another subgroup with 2368 patients were found to be at risk of "classically" overdiagnosed COPD that survive >5.5 years after the COPD diagnosis, but without the typical complications of COPD.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict pulmonary function and the presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a Korean population

BACKGROUND

Early suspicion followed by assessing lung function with spirometry could decrease the underdiagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in primary care. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the FEV₁/FVC ratio and the presence of COPD.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the data of 4241 adult patients who underwent spirometry between 2013 and 2019. By linear regression analysis, variables associated with FEV₁/FVC were identified in the training cohort (n = 2969). Using the variables as predictors, a nomogram was created to predict the FEV₁/FVC ratio and validated in the test cohort (n = 1272).

RESULTS

Older age (β coefficient [95% CI], - 0.153 [- 0.183, - 0.122]), male sex (- 1.904 [- 2.749, - 1.056]), current or past smoking history (- 3.324 [- 4.200, - 2.453]), and the presence of dyspnea (- 2.453 [- 3.612, - 1.291]) or overweight (0.894 [0.191, 1.598]) were significantly associated with the FEV₁/FVC ratio. In the final testing, the developed nomogram showed a mean absolute error of 8.2% between the predicted and actual FEV₁/FVC ratios. The overall performance was best when FEV₁/FVC < 70% was used as a diagnostic criterion for COPD; the sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy were 82.3%, 68.6%, and 75.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The developed nomogram could be used to identify potential patients at risk of COPD who may need further evaluation, especially in the primary care setting where spirometry is not available.

Active screening for COPD among hospitalized smokers - a feasibility study

BACKGROUND

Spirometry is a primary tool for early chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) detection in patients with risk factors, for example, cigarette smoking. The aim of this study was to evaluate the strategy of an active screening for COPD among smokers admitted to the pulmonary and cardiology department.

METHODS

This prospective study was conducted between February and March 2019. All hospitalized smokers aged 40 years and older completed an original questionnaire and had spirometry measurement with a bronchial reversibility test (if applicable) performed by medical students using a portable spirometer.

RESULTS

One hundred and eighty-eight patients were eligible to participate in the study. Seventy (37%) subjects refused to participate. Eventually, 116 (62%) patients were included in the final analysis and 94 (81%) performed spirometry correctly. In total, 32 (34 %) patients were found to have COPD. Nine (28%) of these patients were newly diagnosed, 89% of them had mild-to-moderate airway obstruction. Patients with newly diagnosed COPD were significantly younger [age 63 (56-64) versus 69 (64-78) years], had a longer smoking-free period [17 (13-20) versus 9 (2-12) years], had fewer symptoms and had a better lung function compared with patients with a previous diagnosis of COPD (p < 0.05 for all comparisons).

CONCLUSION

The proposed diagnostic strategy can be successfully used to improve COPD detection in the inpatient setting. The majority of the newly diagnosed COPD patients had mild-to-moderate airway obstruction. Patients who should be particularly screened for COPD include ex-smokers with less pronounced respiratory symptoms.

Qualitative emphysema and risk of COPD hospitalization in a multicenter CT lung cancer screening cohort study

BACKGROUND

In the United States, 9 to 10 million Americans are estimated to be eligible for computed tomographic lung cancer screening (CTLS). Those meeting criteria for CTLS are at high-risk for numerous cardio-pulmonary co-morbidities. The objective of this study was to determine the association between qualitative emphysema identified on screening CTs and risk for hospital admission.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective multicenter study from two CTLS cohorts: Lahey Hospital and Medical Center (LHMC) CTLS program, Burlington, MA and Mount Auburn Hospital (MAH) CTLS program, Cambridge, MA. CTLS exams were qualitatively scored by radiologists at time of screening for presence of emphysema. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to evaluate the association between CT qualitative emphysema and all-cause, COPD-related, and pneumonia-related hospital admission.

RESULTS

We included 4673 participants from the LHMC cohort and 915 from the MAH cohort. 57% and 51.9% of the LHMC and MAH cohorts had presence of CT emphysema, respectively. In the LHMC cohort, the presence of emphysema was associated with all-cause hospital admission (HR 1.15, CI 1.07-1.23; p < 0.001) and COPD-related admission (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.14-2.36; p = 0.007), but not with pneumonia-related admission (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.27-1.83; p < 0.001). In the MAH cohort, the presence of emphysema was only associated with COPD-related admission (HR 2.05; 95% CI 1.07-3.95; p = 0.031).

CONCLUSION

Qualitative CT assessment of emphysema is associated with COPD-related hospital admission in a CTLS population. Identification of emphysema on CLTS exams may provide an opportunity for prevention and early intervention to reduce admission risk.

Development and validation of a prediction model for airflow obstruction in older Chinese: Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a prediction model for airflow obstruction (AO) in older Chinese.

METHODS

DESIGN

Multivariable logistic regression analysis in large population cohort of Chinese aged ≥50 years.

PARTICIPANTS

Model development: 8762 Chinese aged ≥50 years were selected from the early phase recruits to the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (GBCS) (recruited from September 2003 to May 2006). Internal validation: 100 bootstrap samples drawn with replacement from the development sample. External validation: 8395 Chinese aged ≥50 years from later phase GBCS (recruited from September 2006 to January 2008).

OUTCOMES

AO was defined by a forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity ratio < lower limits of normal.

RESULTS

839 (9.6%) and 764 (9.1%) individuals had AO in the development and temporal validation samples respectively. The predictors in the prediction model included sex, age, body mass index groups, smoking status, presence of respiratory symptoms, and history of asthma. Model development and validation was stratified by sex. Model performance including calibration (calibration-in-the-large -0.017 vs. -0.157; and calibration slope 0.88 vs. 1.02), discrimination (C-statistic 0.72 vs. 0.63 with 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.75 vs. 0.62-0.73) and clinical usefulness (decision curve analysis) in the external temporal validation sample were more satisfactory in men than that in women. Prediction models with risk thresholds (13% in men and 7% in women) and easy-to-use nomograms were developed to assess the probability of AO.

CONCLUSION

The diagnostic models based on readily available epidemiologic and clinical information with satisfactory performance can assist physicians to identify older individuals at high risk of AO and may improve the efficiency of spirometry for active case finding. Further validation beyond the Chinese population is warranted.

"Severe-controlled" asthma 4 years later: is it still controlled?

BACKGROUND

Controlled severe asthma is based on needing regular medication and 4 markers of good asthma control. This study reevaluated a community sample defined 4 years earlier as "severe-controlled" based on electronic medical records of medications dispensed over 12 months.

OBJECTIVES

Determine the current extent of clinically-controlled asthma and asthma-related quality-of-life among patients previously considered "severe-controlled".

METHODS

69 patients considered "severe-controlled" 4 years earlier answered a questionnaire that included the asthma control test (ACT), demographics, education, comorbidities, medications, asthma-related healthcare utilization, atopy history, environmental exposures, and follow-up. Patients underwent spirometry, eosinophil count, total IgE, and skin-prick testing for airborne allergens.

RESULTS

Ninety-seven percent reported using combined inhalers (ICS + LABA) regularly. Only 4% visited the ER and none was hospitalized in the last year. Average predicted FEV₁ was 80%. Average ACT score was 19; 51% reported recurrent heartburn, 46% night awakenings and 70% recurrent rhinitis. Skin-prick testing was positive in 72%, average IgE was 376 IU/ml. Eosinophil counts were ≥300/ml in 42% and ≥400/ml in 25%. ACT < 20 was strongly related to recurrent heartburn. Formal education was related to ACT ≥ 20 (p = 0.045) and perception of good asthma control the previous month (p < 0.001). Eosinophil count, recurrent heartburn, total IgE, and recurrent rhinitis were interrelated.

CONCLUSIONS

Among severe asthmatics, good drug compliance, low use of relievers and low rates of exacerbations do not necessarily reflect asthma-related quality-of-life and optimal control. We urge physicians and HMOs to address asthma control in terms of quality-of-life based on validated questionnaires, and offer all patients asthma education; perhaps more to those with low formal education.

The stability of the ADO score among UK COPD patients from The Health Improvement Network

The ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) score predicts 3-year overall mortality among chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Information on the changes in COPD prognostic scores is sparse and it is unclear if the ADO score should be measured serially.

We followed 4804 UK COPD patients with three or more ADO measurements from The Health Improvement Network (2005–2014) in a retrospective open cohort design. Patient's ADO scores were calculated once per year unless an obstruction or dyspnoea measurement was missing. Cox regression models assessed the independent role of serial ADO scores on mortality. The associations between baseline patient characteristics and long-term change in ADO scores were assessed using linear mixed effect models.

Fewer than 7% of patients had worsened (i.e. increased) by ≥1 point per year after a median follow-up of 4.4 years. There was strong evidence that patients with more rapid worsening in ADO scores had increased mortality (hazard ratio 2.00 (95% CI 1.59–2.52) per 1 point increase in ADO per year). More rapid ADO score worsening was seen among current smokers (rate difference 0.059 (95% CI 0.031–0.087); p=0.001) and ex-smokers (0.028 (95% CI 0.003–0.054); p=0.032) and patients with depression (0.038 (95% CI 0.005–0.071); p=0.022), while overweight (−0.0347 (95% CI −0.0544– −0.0150); p=0.001) and obese (−0.0412 (95% CI −0.0625– −0.0198); p<0.001) patients had a less rapid ADO score worsening.

Serial assessment of the ADO score can identify patients with worsening disease and update their prognosis, especially for patients who smoke, are depressed or have lower body mass index.

It is unclear if the ADO score should be measured serially in COPD patients. Serial measurement of the ADO score provides additional information about prognosis in COPD, especially for patients who are smokers, depressed or have lower BMI.http://bit.ly/37A4GUX

Preoperative intervention with long-acting bronchodilators for the reduction of postoperative pulmonary complications in untreated patients with obstructive lung disease

BACKGROUND

Obstructive lung disease (OLD) is a risk factor for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) and is incidentally discovered during preoperative evaluation. The key treatments for OLD are inhaled long-acting bronchodilators (LAB). However, the advantage of preoperative bronchodilator treatment for patients with OLD remains unclear. The aim of this study is to elucidate the effect of preoperative LAB treatment in patients with untreated OLD on postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

In this propensity-matched cohort study, we included patients who were referred to the pulmonologists for untreated OLD. The patients were either treated with LAB or left untreated. The primary outcome was the incidence of prolonged oxygen therapy (>3 days) in the postoperative period. We evaluated patients' characteristics with and without the use of LAB using propensity score (PS) matching weight. Subsequently, the outcomes in the two groups were compared.

RESULTS

We analysed 614 patients; 132 patients were part of the LAB group and 482 were included in the control group. In the crude analysis, the incidence of prolonged oxygen therapy was higher in the LAB group than in the control group (odds ratio [OR] = 1.35; P = 0.04). However, after PS matching weight, no statistically significant differences in prolonged oxygen therapy (OR = 1.15), incidence of prolonged intensive care unit stay, endotracheal re-intubation postoperatively and in-hospital death between the groups were identified.

CONCLUSION

There is a limited benefit of preoperative treatment with inhaled LAB for the reduction of PPC in patients with untreated OLD.

External Validation Of The Updated ADO Score In COPD Patients From The Birmingham COPD Cohort

Background

Reviews suggest that the ADO score is the most discriminatory prognostic score for predicting mortality among chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, but a full evaluation and external validation within primary care settings is critical before implementation.

Objectives

To validate the ADO score in prevalent and screen-detected primary care COPD cases at 3 years and at shorter time periods.

Patients and methods

One thousand eight hundred and ninety-two COPD cases were recruited between 2012 and 2014 from 71 United Kingdom general practices as part of the Birmingham COPD Cohort study. Cases were either on the practice COPD register or screen-detected. We validated the ADO score for predicting 3-year mortality with 1-year and 2-year mortality as secondary endpoints using discrimination (area-under-the-curve (AUC)) and calibration plots.

Results

One hundred and fifty-four deaths occurred within 3 years. The ADO score was discriminatory for predicting 3-year mortality (AUC= 0.74; 95% CI: 0.69–0.79). Similar performance was found for 1- (AUC= 0.73; 0.66–0.80) and 2-year mortality (0.72; 0.67–0.76). The ADO score showed reasonable calibration for predicting 3-year mortality (calibration slope 0.95; 0.70–1.19) but over-predicted in cases with higher predicted risks of mortality at 1 (0.79; 0.45–1.13) and 2-year (0.79; 0.57–1.01) mortality.

Discussion

The ADO score showed promising discrimination in predicting 3-year mortality in a primary care population including screen-detected cases. It may need to be recalibrated if it is used to provide risk predictions for 1- or 2-year mortality since, in these time-periods, over-prediction was evident, especially in cases with higher predicted mortality risks.

[The GLORI-COPD score: detection of COPD patients at risk of complications]

DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLORI-COPD SCORE

GLObal RIsk of severe outcomes in COPD patients.

INTRODUCTION

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a commonly under-diagnosed disease. This study aimed to develop a screening tool for COPD patients with a high risk of complications, taking into account COPD severity and associated co-morbidity.

METHODS

Two Delphi rounds were conducted to select the items for a preliminary score. Subsequently, this score was submitted to patients with a possible diagnosis of COPD attending for pulmonary function tests in hospital and primary care. Items associated with a diagnosis of COPD and its severity were examined with multivariate logistic regressions. Associated items in our analyses and in the literature were integrated into the score. The score was developed with a factorial analysis and optimized according to ROC curves.

RESULTS

Fifteen items were selected with the Delphi method, of which six were retained after logistic regression. They were submitted to 64 patients (mean age: 59+/-13.6 years). Factors associated with COPD were smoking ≥10 pack-years and a history of acute exacerbations. Low levels of activity and coughing up sputum were associated with COPD severity. Age ≥40 years and co-morbidities were added to the score. According to the factorial analysis, a two-stage score was developed assessing first the diagnosis of COPD and then the risk of severe outcomes. It showed a sensitivity of 71 %, a specificity of 77 %. The positive and negative predictive value were respectively 28 % and 96 %.

CONCLUSION

The score was an acceptable screening tool to identify COPD patients with high risk of complications. Nevertheless, validation needs be performed in a larger population to allow its use in primary care.