Meteorological factors and risk of scrub typhus in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2012

A systematic review of environmental covariates and methods for spatial or temporal scrub typhus distribution prediction

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is underdiagnosed and underreported but emerging as a global public health problem. To inform future burden and prediction studies we examined through a systematic review the potential effect of environmental covariates on scrub typhus occurrence and the methods which have been used for its prediction.

METHODS

In this systematic review, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and other databases, with no language and publication time restrictions, for studies that investigated environmental covariates or utilized methods to predict the spatial or temporal human. Data were manually extracted following a set of queries and systematic analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

We included 68 articles published in 1978-2024 with relevant data from 7 countries/regions. Significant environmental risk factors for scrub typhus include temperature (showing positive or inverted-U relationships), precipitation (with positive or inverted-U patterns), humidity (exhibiting complex positive, inverted-U, or W-shaped associations), sunshine duration (with positive, inverted-U associations), elevation, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the proportion of cropland. Socioeconomic and biological factors were rarely explored. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (n = 8) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach (n = 11) were the most popular methods for predicting temporal trends and spatial distribution of scrub typhus, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings summarized the evidence on environmental covariates affecting scrub typhus occurrence and the methodologies used for predictive modelling. We review the existing knowledge gaps and outline recommendations for future studies modelling disease prediction and burden.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022315209.

mNGS helped diagnose scrub typhus-associated HLH in children: a report of two cases

Background

Scrub typhus, caused by the Orientia tsutsugamushi (Ot), is a widespread vector-borne disease transmitted by chigger mites. Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is considered to be one of the potentially severe complications. The diagnosis of scrub typhus-associated HLH may be overlooked due to the non-specific clinical characteristics and the absence of pathognomonic eschar.

Case presentation

We obtained clinical data from two patients in the South of Sichuan, China. The first case involved a 6-year-old girl who exhibited an unexplained fever and was initially diagnosed with sepsis, HLH, and pulmonary infection. The other patient presented a more severe condition characterized by multiple organ dysfunction and was initially diagnosed with septic shock, sepsis, HLH, acute kidney injury (AKI), and pulmonary infection. At first, a specific examination for scrub typhus was not performed due to the absence of a characteristic eschar. Conventional peripheral blood cultures yielded negative results in both patients, and neither of them responded to routine antibiotics. Fortunately, the causative pathogen Orientia tsutsugamushi (Ot) was detected in the plasma samples of both patients using metagenomics next-generation sequencing (mNGS) and further confirmed by polymerase chain reaction. Subsequently, they both were treated with doxycycline and recovered quickly.

Conclusion

The unbiased mNGS provided a clinically actionable diagnosis for an uncommon pathogen-associated infectious disease that had previously evaded conventional diagnostic approaches.

Associations of meteorological factors and dynamics of scrub typhus incidence in South Korea: A nationwide time-series study

Scrub typhus, also known as Tsutsugamushi disease, is a climate-sensitive vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. However, studies on the association between scrub typhus epidemics and meteorological factors in South Korea need to be complemented. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the association among ambient temperature, precipitation, and the incidence of scrub typhus in South Korea. First, we obtained data on the weekly number of scrub typhus cases and concurrent meteorological variables at the city-county level (Si-Gun) in South Korea between 2001 and 2019. Subsequently, a two-stage meta-regression analysis was conducted. In the first stage, we conducted time-series regression analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to investigate the association between temperature, precipitation, and scrub typhus incidence at each location. In the second stage, we employed a multivariate meta-regression model to combine the association estimates from all municipalities, considering regional indicators, such as mite species distribution, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and urban-rural classification. Weekly mean temperature and weekly total precipitation exhibited a reversed U-shaped nonlinear association with the incidence of scrub typhus. The overall cumulative association with scrub typhus incidence peaked at 18.7 C° (with RRs of 9.73, 95% CI: 5.54-17.10) of ambient temperature (reference 9.7 C°) and 162.0 mm (with RRs of 1.87, 95% CI: 1.02-3.83) of precipitation (reference 2.8 mm), respectively. These findings suggest that meteorological factors contribute to scrub typhus epidemics by interacting with vectors, reservoir hosts, and human behaviors. This information serves as a reference for future public health policies and epidemiological research aimed at controlling scrub typhus infections.

Epidemiologic changes of a longitudinal surveillance study spanning 51 years of scrub typhus in mainland China

Scrub typhus may be one of the world's most prevalent, neglected and serious, but easily treatable, febrile diseases. It has become a significant potential threat to public health in China. In this study we used national disease surveillance data to analyze the incidence and spatial-temporal distribution of scrub typhus in mainland China during 1952-1989 and 2006-2018. Descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial-temporal epidemiological methods were used to investigate the epidemiological trends and identify high-risk regions of scrub typhus infection. Over the 51-year period, a total of 182,991 cases and 186 deaths were notified. The average annual incidence was 0.13 cases/100,000 population during 1952-1989. The incidence increased sharply from 0.09/100,000 population in 2006 to 1.93/100,000 population in 2018 and then exponentially increased after 2006. The incidence was significantly higher in females than males (χ2 = 426.32, P < 0.001). Farmers had a higher incidence of scrub typhus than non-farmers (χ2 = 684.58, P < 0.001). The majority of cases each year were reported between July and November with peak incidence occurring during October each year. The trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of scrub typhus increased gradually from north to south, and from east and west to the central area. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that a spatial positive correlation existed in the prevalence of scrub typhus on a national scale, which had the characteristic of aggregated distribution (I = 0.533, P < 0.05). LISA analysis showed hotspots (High-High) were primarily located in the southern and southwestern provinces of China with the geographical area expanding annually. These findings provide scientific evidence for the surveillance and control of scrub typhus which may contribute to targeted strategies and measures for the government.

Climate influences scrub typhus occurrence in Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India: analysis of a 15-year dataset

Climate is one of the major factors determining the prevalence and seasonality of vector borne diseases like scrub typhus (ST). We analyzed, the association of the meteorological factors like temperature, rainfall and humidity with scrub typhus using the 15 years scrub typhus data from a tertiary care hospital in Vellore, South India. Demographic data of permanent residents of Vellore, who had IgM ELISA results for scrub typhus for the time period of May 2005 to April 2020 were included. Meteorological data was correlated with the monthly scrub typhus cases; negative binomial regression model was used to predict the relation between scrub typhus occurrence and climate factors. Maximum number of ST cases were reported between the months August and February with October recording the highest number of cases. Elderly people, farmers, agricultural workers and housewives were at higher risk for scrub typhus. For an increase of 1 °C in mean temperature, the monthly ST cases reduced by 18.8% (95% CI - 24.1, - 13.2%). On the contrary, for 1 percent increase in mean relative humidity (RH), there is an increase of 7.6% (95% CI 5.4, 9.9%) of monthly ST cases. Similarly, an increase of 1 mm of rainfall contributed to 0.5 to 0.7% of monthly ST cases (after 2 months) depending on the variables included in the analysis. This study provides information that meteorological factors influence ST occurrence in Vellore. The rise of scrub typhus cases is maximal 2 months post rainfall. Whereas a rise in relative humidity, causes a rise in scrub typhus cases in same month, while rise in temperature has a negative impact on scrub typhus during the same month. These findings based on a retrospective analysis need validation by prospective studies.

Geographical distribution of scrub typhus and risk of Orientia tsutsugamushi infection in Indonesia: Evidence mapping

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is a potentially fatal acute febrile illness caused by bacteria in the genus Orientia. Though cases have been documented, a comprehensive body of evidence has not previously been compiled to give an overview of scrub typhus in Indonesia. This study aimed to address this key knowledge gap by mapping and ranking geographic areas based on existing data on the presence or absence of the pathogen in humans, vectors, and host animals.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We performed searches on local and international electronic databases, websites, libraries, and collections including Embase, Medline, and Scopus to gather relevant evidence (including grey literature). After extracting data on the presence and absence of the pathogen and its vectors, we ranked the evidence based on the certainty for the presence of human infection risk. The country was divided into subnational units, and each were assigned a score based on the evidence available for that unit. We presented this in an evidence map. Orientia tsutsugamushi presence has been identified on all the main islands (Sumatra, Java, Borneo, Celebes, Papua). About two thirds of the data points were collected before 1946. South Sumatra and Biak had the strongest evidence for sustaining infectious vectors. There was only one laboratory confirmed case in a human identified but 2,780 probable cases were documented. The most common vector was Leptotrombidium deliense.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our review highlights the concerning lack of data on scrub typhus in Indonesia, the fourth most populous country in the world. The presence of seropositive samples, infected vectors and rodents confirm O. tsutsugamushi is widespread in Indonesia and likely to be causing significant morbidity and mortality. There is an urgent need to increase surveillance to better understand the burden of the disease across the archipelago and to inform national empirical fever treatment guidelines.

Prediction of risk factors for scrub typhus from 2006 to 2019 based on random forest model in Guangzhou, China

OBJECTIVES

Scrub typhus is an increasingly serious public health problem, which is becoming the most common vector-borne disease in Guangzhou. This study aimed to analyse the correlation between scrub typhus incidence and potential factors and rank the importance of influential factors.

METHODS

We collected monthly scrub typhus cases, meteorological variables, rodent density (RD), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and land use type in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2019. Correlation analysis and a random forest model were used to identify the risk factors for scrub typhus and predict the importance rank of influencing factors related to scrub typhus incidence.

RESULTS

The epidemiological results of the scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou between 2006 and 2019 showed that the incidence rate was on the rise. The results of correlation analysis revealed that a positive relationship between scrub typhus incidence and meteorological factors of mean temperature (T_mean ), accumulative rainfall (RF), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours (SH), and NDVI, RD, population density, and green land coverage area (all p < 0.001). Additionally, we tested the relationship between the incidence of scrub typhus and the lagging meteorological factors through cross-correlation function, and found that incidence was positively correlated with 1-month lag T_mean , 2-month lag RF, 2-month lag RH, and 6-month lag SH (all p < 0.001). Based on the random forest model, we found that the T_mean was the most important predictor among the influential factors, followed by NDVI.

CONCLUSIONS

Meteorological factors, NDVI, RD, and land use type jointly affect the incidence of scrub typhus in Guangzhou. Our results provide a better understanding of the influential factors correlated with scrub typus, which can improve our capacity for biological monitoring and help public health authorities to formulate disease control strategies.

Trends in the Incidence of Japanese Spotted Fever in Japan: A Nationwide, Two-Decade Observational Study from 2001-2020

The worldwide spread of tick-borne diseases (TBDs) has become a public health concern. Therefore, this study aimed to clarify trends in the incidence of Japanese spotted fever (JSF), one of Japan's most prevalent TBDs. Weekly infectious disease reports were used to calculate the annual incidence rates (AIRs) of JSF. Data were stratified by age and sex, and joinpoint regression analysis was performed to estimate the annual percentage change (APC). AIR and APC were geographically compared among the 47 prefectures. A total of 3,453 JSF cases were observed from 2001 to 2020. The AIR per 100,000 population was 0.03 in 2001, which increased approximately 10-fold to 0.33 in 2020. The average APC (AAPC) during the study period was 12.3% (95% CI: 10.7-13.9). By age group, the incidence of JSF increased more rapidly among the older population: 11.5% (95% CI: 10.1-12.9) in those aged ≥ 65 years and 8.9% (95% CI: 6.4-11.5) in those aged < 50 years. Although the AIR over the past two decades was higher in climatically warm regions located in southwestern Japan and on the Pacific coast, increases in the AAPC were notable in colder regions located in eastern Japan. The incidence of JSF continues to increase in Japan, especially among older populations and in eastern prefectures, where the disease has not been previously diagnosed.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010-2020

This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus, detect the spatio-temporal patterns of scrub typhus at county level, and explore the associations between the environmental variables and scrub typhus cases in Anhui Province. Time-series analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of the scrub typhus in Anhui Province. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to explore the association between scrub typhus and environmental variables. A total of 16,568 clinically diagnosed and laboratory-confirmed cases were reported from 104 counties of 16 prefecture-level cities. The number of female cases was higher than male cases, with a proportion of 1.32:1. And the proportion of cases over 65 years old was the highest, accounting for 33.8% of the total cases. Two primary and five secondary high-risk clusters were detected in the northwestern, northeastern, and central-eastern parts of Anhui Province. The number of cases in primary and secondary high-risk clusters accounted for 60.27% and 3.00%, respectively. Scrub typhus incidence in Anhui Province was positively correlated with the population density, normalized difference vegetation index, and several meteorological variables. The mean monthly sunshine duration with 3 lags (SSD_lag3), mean monthly ground surface temperature with 1 lag (GST_lag1), and mean monthly relative humidity with 3 lags (RHU_lag3) had the most significant association with increased cases of scrub typhus. Our findings indicate that public health interventions need to be focused on the elderly farmers in north of the Huai River in Anhui Province.

Using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of scrub typhus in Fujian Province, China

BACKGROUND

Despite the increasing number of cases of scrub typhus and its expanding geographical distribution in China, its potential distribution in Fujian Province, which is endemic for the disease, has yet to be investigated.

METHODS

A negative binomial regression model for panel data mainly comprising meteorological, socioeconomic and land cover variables was used to determine the risk factors for the occurrence of scrub typhus. Maximum entropy modeling was used to identify the key predictive variables of scrub typhus and their ranges, map the suitability of different environments for the disease, and estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of infection risk.

RESULTS

The final multivariate negative binomial regression model for panel data showed that the annual mean normalized difference vegetation index had the strongest correlation with the number of scrub typhus cases. With each 0.1% rise in shrubland and 1% rise in barren land there was a 75.0% and 37.0% increase in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. In contrast, each unit rise in mean wind speed in the previous 2 months and each 1% increase in water bodies corresponded to a decrease of 40.0% and 4.0% in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. The predictions of the maximum entropy model were robust, and the average area under the curve value was as high as 0.864. The best predictive variables for scrub typhus occurrence were population density, annual mean normalized difference vegetation index, and land cover types. The projected potentially most suitable areas for scrub typhus were widely distributed across the eastern coastal area of Fujian Province, with highly suitable and moderately suitable areas accounting for 16.14% and 9.42%, respectively. Of the total human population of the province, 81.63% reside in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings could help deepen our understanding of the risk factors of scrub typhus, and provide information for public health authorities in Fujian Province to develop more effective surveillance and control strategies in identified high risk areas in Fujian Province.

Orientia tsutsugamushi Infection in Wild Small Mammals in Western Yunnan Province, China

Small mammals can transmit and serve as a reservoir for Orientia tsutsugamushi (Ot) in nature by carrying infected mites. In Yunnan, one of China's main foci of scrub typhus, etiological evidence and genetic diversity for Ot is limited. A total of 2538 small mammals were captured seasonally from 2015 to 2016 in the three counties of Yunnan, and the spleen or liver tissue was examined for Ot based on 56 kDa nPCR. The overall prevalence of Ot was 1.77%, ranging from 0.26 to 9.09% across different species. The Gilliam strain was found in 35.6% (16/45) of the wild small mammals, followed by the Karp 11.1% (5/45) and TA763 (1/45) strains, the last of which was discovered in western Yunnan for the first time. In Lianghe, Ot infection rates in wild small mammals were higher than in the other two counties. The infection rates of Eothenomys miletus with Ot were highest in the three dominant species. Ot infection rates in wild small mammals were higher in Lianghe (1200-1400 m) and Yulong (2800-3000 m). These findings could provide research clues for further confirmation of scrub typhus foci in western Yunnan or other similar natural environments.

Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study

Scrub typhus is emerging as a global public health threat owing to its increased prevalence and remarkable geographic expansion. However, it remains a neglected disease, and possible influences of meteorological factors on its risk are poorly understood. We conducted the largest-scale research to assess the impact of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in China. Weekly data on scrub typhus cases and meteorological factors were collected across 59 prefecture-level administrative regions from 2006 to 2020. First, we divided these regions into 3 regions and analyzed the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus. We then applied the distributed lag nonlinear model, combined with multivariate meta-analysis, to examine the associations between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence at the total and regional levels. Subsequently, we identified the critical meteorological predictors of scrub typhus incidence and extracted climate risk windows. We observed distinct epidemiological characteristics across regions, featuring obvious clustering in the East and Southwest with more even distribution and longer epidemic duration in the South. The mean temperature and relative humidity had profound effects on scrub typhus with initial-elevated-descendent patterns. Weather conditions of weekly mean temperatures of 25-33°C and weekly relative humidity of 60-95% were risk windows for scrub typhus. Additionally, the heavy rainfall was associated with sharp increase in scrub typhus incidence. We identified specific climatic signals to detect the epidemic of scrub typhus, which were easily monitored to generalize. Regional heterogeneity should be considered for targeted monitoring and disease control strategies.

Climate drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in China

Scrub typhus is a climate-sensitive and life-threatening vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. Although the climate-epidemic associations of many vector-borne diseases have been studied for decades, the impacts of climate on scrub typhus remain poorly understood, especially in the context of global warming. Here we incorporate Chinese national surveillance data on scrub typhus from 2010 to 2019 into a climate-driven generalized additive mixed model to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics of this disease and predict how it may be affected by climate change under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future time periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). Our results demonstrate that temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity play key roles in driving the seasonal epidemic of scrub typhus in mainland China with a 2-month lag. Our findings show that the change of projected spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus will be heterogeneous and will depend on specific combinations of regional climate conditions in future climate scenarios. Our results contribute to a better understanding of spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus, which can help public health authorities refine their prevention and control measures to reduce the risks resulting from climate change.

How meteorological factors impacting on scrub typhus incidences in the main epidemic areas of 10 provinces, China, 2006-2018

Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is a serious public health problem in the Asia-Pacific region, threatening the health of more than one billion people. China is one of the countries with the most serious disease burden of scrub typhus. Previous epidemiological evidence indicated that meteorological factors may affect the incidence of scrub typhus, but there was limited evidence for the correlation between local natural environment factors dominated by meteorological factors and scrub typhus. This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between monthly scrub typhus incidence and meteorological factors in areas with high scrub typhus prevalence using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). The monthly data on scrub typhus cases in ten provinces from 2006 to 2018 and meteorological parameters were obtained from the Public Health Science Data Center and the National Meteorological Data Sharing Center. The results of the single-variable and multiple-variable models showed a non-linear relationship between incidence and meteorological factors of mean temperature (Tmean), rainfall (RF), sunshine hours (SH), and relative humidity (RH). Taking the median of meteorological factors as the reference value, the relative risks (RRs) of monthly Tmean at 0°C, RH at 46%, and RF at 800 mm were most significant, with RRs of 2.28 (95% CI: 0.95-5.43), 1.71 (95% CI: 1.39-2.09), and 3.33 (95% CI: 1.89-5.86). In conclusion, relatively high temperature, high humidity, and favorable rainfall were associated with an increased risk of scrub typhus.

Emerging trends of scrub typhus disease in southern Rajasthan, India: A neglected public health problem

Scrub typhus is the oldest known vector-borne zoonotic infectious disease in the world which is life-threatening for all age groups as it presents acute febrile illness along with multi-organ involvements and spread with the biting of infectious 'Trombiculid mite' (chigger mite). The pathogen of this disease is an obligatory coccobacillus gram-negative rickettsial bacteria Orientia tsutsugamushi. Scrub typhus disease was previously confined geographically only to the Asia Pacific region (tsutsugamushi triangle), but in recent years it has crossed its limit and has spread in other countries beyond the tsutsugamushi triangle and has become more hazardous for the community. The objective of this study is to explore the scrub typhus disease outbreak trends with existing information in southern Rajasthan state, India. This study concluded that scrub typhus disease is being re-emerged again and again in various Indian geographical regions with new species of vectors. The disease has been raised in tremendous amounts in Rajasthan within the last five years especially in the hilly zone and has led to major public health problems with other zoonotic diseases.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of scrub typhus in Fujian province during 2012–2020

Background

Scrub typhus has become a serious public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region including China. There were new natural foci continuously recognized and dramatically increased reported cases in mainland China. However, the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of scrub typhus in Fujian province have yet to be investigated.

Objective

This study proposes to explore demographic characteristics and spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus cases in Fujian province, and to detect high-risk regions between January 2012 and December 2020 at county/district scale and thereby help in devising public health strategies to improve scrub typhus prevention and control measures.

Method

Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level in Fujian province during 2012–2020 were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Time-series analyses, spatial autocorrelation analyses and space-time scan statistics were applied to identify and visualize the spatiotemporal patterns of scrub typhus cases in Fujian province. The demographic differences of scrub typhus cases from high-risk and low-risk counties in Fujian province were also compared.

Results

A total of 11,859 scrub typhus cases reported in 87 counties from Fujian province were analyzed and the incidence showed an increasing trend from 2012 (2.31 per 100,000) to 2020 (3.20 per 100,000) with a peak in 2018 (4.59 per 100,000). There existed two seasonal peaks in June-July and September-October every year in Fujian province. A significant positive spatial autocorrelation of scrub typhus incidence in Fujian province was observed with Moran’s I values ranging from 0.258 to 0.471 (P<0.001). Several distinct spatiotemporal clusters mainly concentrated in north and southern parts of Fujian province. Compared to low-risk regions, a greater proportion of cases were female, farmer, and older residents in high-risk counties.

Conclusions

These results demonstrate a clear spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus cases in Fujian province, and provide the evidence in directing future researches on risk factors and effectively assist local health authorities in the refinement of public health interventions against scrub typhus transmission in the high risk regions.

Scrub typhus is a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi and is popular in the Asia-Pacific area. Nowadays scrub typhus has been recognized as a considerable burden on public health in Fujian province. We explored the epidemiological characteristics, spatiotemporal patterns and diffusion characteristics of scrub typhus, and detected high-risk regions at the county level in Fujian province between January 2012 and December 2020. Our results indicated that the majority of cases were reported in June-July and September-October and that that middle aged and elderly people were more prone to infection every year in Fujian province. The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed clustering in geographic distribution of cases and several distinct spatiotemporal clusters were identified in north and southern parts of Fujian province. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were female, farmer, and older residents in high-risk counties.

Prevalence, clinico-laboratory features, and the functional outcome of children with scrub typhus meningoencephalitis-a cohort study

Scrub typhus is being reported as the most common cause of childhood meningoencephalitis (ME) in India. Hence, we planned to estimate the proportion of scrub typhus infection among children aged 1 month to 12 years with the clinical diagnosis of ME and to evaluate their demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics. This cohort study was conducted in the Department of Pediatrics of a tertiary care teaching hospital in south India. One hundred and twenty-seven consecutive children aged 1 month to 12 years with the clinical diagnosis of ME were the participants. Their socio-demographic factors, clinical details, laboratory reports and outcomes were analyzed. The etiological agent was identified in 71 (56%) children. Orientia tsutsugamushi (Scrub typhus) was the most common infection (24.4%), of all children with ME. Children aged ≥5 years were frequently affected by scrub typhus ME. Eschar, capillary leak, hepatomegaly and splenomegaly were the predominant clinical features of scrub typhus ME. Thrombocytopenia and deranged liver function tests were common in scrub typhus ME. To conclude, Orientia tsutsugamushi was the most common organism identified in our study. Prompt recognition of some tell-tale clinical signs of scrub typhus (such as eschar, thrombocytopenia and hepatosplenomegaly), and timely initiation of antibiotics would lead to better outcomes as evident from the study.

The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China

Background:

Meteorological factors can affect the emergence of scrub typhus for a period lasting days to weeks after their occurrence. Furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors and scrub typhus is complicated because of lagged and non-linear patterns. Investigating the lagged correlation patterns between meteorological variables and scrub typhus may promote an understanding of this association and be beneficial for preventing disease outbreaks.

Methods

We extracted data on scrub typhus cases in rural areas of Panzhihua in Southwest China every week from 2008 to 2017 from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to study the temporal lagged correlation between weekly meteorological factors and weekly scrub typhus.

Results

There were obvious lagged associations between some weather factors (rainfall, relative humidity, and air temperature) and scrub typhus with the same overall effect trend, an inverse-U shape; moreover, different meteorological factors had different significant delayed contributions compared with reference values in many cases. In addition, at the same lag time, the relative risk increased with the increase of exposure level for all weather variables when presenting a positive association.

Conclusions

The results found that different meteorological factors have different patterns and magnitudes for the lagged correlation between weather factors and scrub typhus. The lag shape and association for meteorological information is applicable for developing an early warning system for scrub typhus.

Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases in China: A Review of Evidence and Implications for Risk Management

Simple Summary

Vector-borne diseases are among the most rapidly spreading infectious diseases and are widespread all around the world. In China, many types of vector-borne diseases have been prevalent in different regions, which is a serious public health problem with significant association with meteorological factors and weather events. Under the background of current severe climate change, the outbreaks and transmission of vector-borne diseases have been proven to be impacted greatly due to rapidly changing weather conditions. This study summarizes research progress on the association between climate conditions and all types of vector-borne diseases in China. A total of seven insect-borne diseases, two rodent-borne diseases, and a snail-borne disease were included, among which dengue fever is the most concerning mosquito-borne disease. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity have the most significant effect on vector-borne disease transmission, while the association between weather conditions and vector-borne diseases shows vast differences in China. We also make suggestions about future research based on a review of current studies.

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases have posed a heavy threat to public health, especially in the context of climate change. Currently, there is no comprehensive review of the impact of meteorological factors on all types of vector-borne diseases in China. Through a systematic review of literature between 2000 and 2021, this study summarizes the relationship between climate factors and vector-borne diseases and potential mechanisms of climate change affecting vector-borne diseases. It further examines the regional differences of climate impact. A total of 131 studies in both Chinese and English on 10 vector-borne diseases were included. The number of publications on mosquito-borne diseases is the largest and is increasing, while the number of studies on rodent-borne diseases has been decreasing in the past two decades. Temperature, precipitation, and humidity are the main parameters contributing to the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Both the association and mechanism show vast differences between northern and southern China resulting from nature and social factors. We recommend that more future research should focus on the effect of meteorological factors on mosquito-borne diseases in the era of climate change. Such information will be crucial in facilitating a multi-sectorial response to climate-sensitive diseases in China.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of scrub typhus in Yunnan Province from 2006 to 2017

Scrub typhus is an acute infectious disease in humans. A temporal, spatial and epidemiologic study was conducted to understand the characteristics of scrub typhus in Yunnan, to assist public health prevention and control measures. Based on the data on all cases reported in Yunnan during 2006–2017, we characterized the epidemiological features. Spatio-temporal patterns and Q-type cluster method were adopted to analyze the incidence of scrub typhus in Yunnan. In total, 27,838 scrub typhus cases were reported in Yunnan during 2006–2017. Of these, 49.53% (13,787) were male and 50.47% (14,051) were female (P > 0.05). Most patients were farmers (71.70%) (P < 0.05) and children aged 0–5 years (13.16%) (P < 0.01), which accounted for 84.86% of the total cases. An almost 20-fold increase in the number of patients was observed in 2017 (6,337 cases) compared to 2006 (307 cases). Baoshan and Lincang had the most cases accounting for 41.94%, while Diqing had the lowest incidence (only 3 cases). Sixteen municipalities infected were classified into three groups numbered in sequence. The incidence of scrub typhus in Yunnan is high and the annual incidence increased noticeably over time. Our results also indicate that surveillance and public education need to be focused on Baoshan, Lincang and Dehong.

Moonlighting in Rickettsiales: Expanding Virulence Landscape

The order Rickettsiales includes species that cause a range of human diseases such as human granulocytic anaplasmosis (Anaplasma phagocytophilum), human monocytic ehrlichiosis (Ehrlichia chaffeensis), scrub typhus (Orientia tsutsugamushi), epidemic typhus (Rickettsia prowazekii), murine typhus (R. typhi), Mediterranean spotted fever (R. conorii), or Rocky Mountain spotted fever (R. rickettsii). These diseases are gaining a new momentum given their resurgence patterns and geographical expansion due to the overall rise in temperature and other human-induced pressure, thereby remaining a major public health concern. As obligate intracellular bacteria, Rickettsiales are characterized by their small genome sizes due to reductive evolution. Many pathogens employ moonlighting/multitasking proteins as virulence factors to interfere with multiple cellular processes, in different compartments, at different times during infection, augmenting their virulence. The utilization of this multitasking phenomenon by Rickettsiales as a strategy to maximize the use of their reduced protein repertoire is an emerging theme. Here, we provide an overview of the role of various moonlighting proteins in the pathogenicity of these species. Despite the challenges that lie ahead to determine the multiple potential faces of every single protein in Rickettsiales, the available examples anticipate this multifunctionality as an essential and intrinsic feature of these obligates and should be integrated into available moonlighting repositories.

Climate change and zoonoses: A review of the current status, knowledge gaps, and future trends

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), especially those with zoonotic potential, are a growing threat to global health, economy, and safety. The influence of global warming and geoclimatic variations on zoonotic disease epidemiology is evident by alterations in the host, vector, and pathogen dynamics and their interactions. The objective of this article is to review the current literature on the observed impacts of climate change on zoonoses and discuss future trends. We evaluated several climate models to assess the projections of various zoonoses driven by the predicted climate variations. Many climate projections revealed potential geographical expansion and the severity of vector-borne, waterborne, foodborne, rodent-borne, and airborne zoonoses. However, there are still some knowledge gaps, and further research needs to be conducted to fully understand the magnitude and consequences of some of these changes. Certainly, by understanding the impact of climate change on zoonosis emergence and distribution, we could better plan for climate mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.

Impact of Meteorological Factors and Southern Oscillation Index on Scrub Typhus Incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2006-2018

Background: Scrub typhus was epidemic in the western Pacific Ocean area and East Asia, scrub typhus epidemic in densely populated areas in southern China. To better understand the association between meteorological variables, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou was benefit to the control and prevention.

Methodology/Principal Findings: We collected weekly data for scrub typhus cases and meteorological variables in Guangzhou, and Southern Oscillation Index from 2006 to 2018, and used the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the relationships between meteorological variables, SOI and scrub typhus. The median value of each variable was set as the reference. The high-risk occupations were farmer (51.10%), house worker (17.51%), and retiree (6.29%). The non-linear relationships were observed with different lag weeks. For example, when the mean temperature was 27.7°C with1-week lag, the relative risk (RR) was highest as 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17). The risk was the highest when the relative humidity was 92.0% with 9-week lag, with the RR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02–1.19). For aggregate rainfall, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03–1.11), when it was 83.0 mm with 4-week lag. When the SOI was 19 with 11-week lag, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01–1.12). Most of the extreme effects of SOI and meteorological factors on scrub typical cases were statistically significant.

Conclusion/Significance: The high-risk occupations of scrub typhus in Guangzhou were farmer, house worker, and retiree. Meteorological factors and SOI played an important role in scrub typhus occurrence in Guangzhou. Non-linear relationships were observed in almost all the variables in our study. Approximately, mean temperature, and relative humidity positively correlated to the incidence of scrub typhus, on the contrary to atmospheric pressure and weekly temperature range (WTR). Aggregate rainfall and wind velocity showed an inverse-U curve, whereas the SOI appeared the bimodal distribution. These findings can be helpful to facilitate the development of the early warning system to prevent the scrub typhus.

Limited evidence for the role of environmental factors in the unusual peak of influenza in Brisbane during the 2018-2019 Australian summer

OBJECTIVE

To explore the contribution of environmental factors in the unusual pattern of influenza activity observed in Brisbane, Australia during the summer of 2018-2019.

METHODS

Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) were used to estimate the effect of environmental factors on weekly influenza incidence in Brisbane. Next generation sequencing was then employed to analyze minor and majority variants in influenza strains isolated from Brisbane children during this period.

RESULTS

There were limited marked differences in the environmental factors observed in Brisbane between the 2018-2019 summer period and the same period of the proceeding years, with the exception of significant reduction in rainfall. DLNM showed that reduced rainfall in Brisbane (at levels consistent with the 2018-2019 period) correlated with a dramatic increase in the relative risk of influenza. Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) levels were also increased in the 2018-2019 period, although these levels did not correlate with an increased risk of influenza. Sequencing of a limited number of pediatric influenza virus strains isolated during the 2018-2019 showed numerous mutations within the viral HA.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, these data suggest a limited role for key environmental factors in the influenza activity observed in Brisbane, Australia during the summer of 2018-2019. One alternative explanation may that viral factors, in addition to other factors not studied herein, contributed to the unusual influenza season. Our findings provide fundamental information that may be beneficial to a better understanding of the seasonal trends of influenza virus.

Epidemiologic Changes of Scrub Typhus in China, 1952-2016

Scrub typhus, a miteborne rickettsiosis, has emerged in many areas globally. We analyzed the incidence and spatial–temporal distribution of scrub typhus in China during 1952–1989 and 2006–2016 using national disease surveillance data. A total of 133,623 cases and 174 deaths were recorded. The average annual incidence was 0.13 cases/100,000 population during 1952–1989; incidence increased sharply from 0.09/100,000 population in 2006 to 1.60/100,000 population in 2016. The disease, historically endemic to southern China, has expanded to all the provinces across both rural and urban areas. We identified 3 distinct seasonal patterns nationwide; infections peaked in summer in the southwest, summer-autumn in the southeast, and autumn in the middle-east. Persons >40 years of age and in nonfarming occupations had a higher risk for death. The changing epidemiology of scrub typhus in China warrants an enhanced disease control and prevention program.

The epidemiology, diagnosis and management of scrub typhus disease in China

Thirty-nine years ago, scrub typhus (ST), a disease, was not among the China's notifiable diseases. However, ST has reemerged to become a growing public health issue in the southwest part of China. The major factors contributing to an increased incidence and prevalence of this disease include rapid globalization, urbanization, expansion of humans into previously uninhabited areas, and climate change. The clinical manifestation of ST also consists of high fever, headache, weakness, myalgia, rash, and an eschar. In severe cases, complications (e.g. multi-organ failure, jaundice, acute renal failure, pneumonitis, myocarditis, and even death) can occur. The diagnosis of ST is mainly based on serological identification by indirect immunofluorescence assay and other molecular methods. Furthermore, several groups of antibiotics (e.g. tetracycline, chloramphenicol, macrolides, and rifampicin) are currently effective in treating this disease. This fact suggests the need for robust early diagnostic techniques, increased surveillance, and prompt treatment, and develop future vaccine.

Genomic characterization of Wenzhou mammarenavirus detected in wild rodents in Guangzhou City, China

Wenzhou mammarenavirus (WENV) is a zoonotic pathogen newly discovered in east and southeast Asia. WENV has been found in wild rodent animals around the world while its standing is barely understood in Guangzhou city, where is known as a region of outbreak hotspot for zoonotic emerging infectious diseases. To investigate the prevalence and genomic characteristics of mammarenavirus in Guangzhou City, lung tissue samples from wild rodent species were collected from five districts of Guangzhou City in the year 2015 and 2016. The viral RNA was extracted and then subjected to mammarenavirus-specific PCR. The result revealed approximately 1.0% (3/306) nucleic acid positivity for lung tissue samples obtained from three rodent species: Mus musculus, Rattus flavipectus, and Rattus norvegicus. Viral metagenomic sequencing of three samples was then carried out and two full segment L and three full segment S sequences were obtained. Phylogenetics analysis indicated the sequences of the new mammarenavirus strain have 76.2% - 94.4% similarity to known WENV encoded genes, with the highest similarity to the WENV 9-24 strain. Population structure analysis grouped all known WENV into seven lineages, and this WENV Guangzhou strain was grouped with WENV 9-24 as well. Though the seroprevalence result was not available, our data provides the first nucleic acid evidence of circulating WENV in Guangzhou city, and it suggested WENV had a broader host tropism than previously known.

Scrub typhus: a reemerging infection

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is a widely neglected disease which is gaining global momentum because of its resurgence patterns. The disease is now being reported in newer regions as well as areas previously endemic areas. In this review, we aim to comprehensively review the data available to assist physicians in making an accurate diagnosis and appropriate management of the disease.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several diagnostic tests have been developed for confirming scrub typhus. However, there is lack of clarity on which tests are most appropriate in a given clinical scenario. A recent study has demonstrated that in early disease (<7 days) when serological tests remain negative, the quantitative polymerase chain reaction is the most sensitive test. Among the serological tests, both IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay as well as rapid diagnostic tests revealed excellent sensitivities and specificities.

SUMMARY

With the reemergence of scrub typhus, a high degree of clinical suspicion is required to appropriately diagnose this disease which presents as an acute febrile illness. It can progress to develop various complications leading to multi-organ dysfunction syndrome. Mild illness responds well to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline and azithromycin. Further studies are required to determine the most optimal therapy in severe scrub typhus infections and superiority of one drug over the other.

Non-linear effect of different humidity types on scrub typhus occurrence in endemic provinces, Thailand

Background

Reported monthly scrub typhus (ST) cases in Thailand has an increase in the number of cases during 2009–2014. Humidity is a crucial climatic factor for the survival of chiggers, which is the disease vectors. The present study was to determine the role of humidity in ST occurrence in Thailand and its delayed effect.

Methods

We obtained the climate data from the Department of Meteorology, the disease data from Ministry of Public Health. Negative binomial regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (NB-DLNM) was employed to determine the non-linear effects of different types of humidity on the disease. This model controlled overdispersion and confounder, including seasonality, minimum temperature, and cumulative total rainwater.

Results

The occurrence of the disease in the 6-year period showed the number of cases gradually increased summer season (Mid-February – Mid-May) and then reached a plateau during the rainy season (Mid-May – Mid-October) and then steep fall after the cold season (Mid-October – Mid-February). The high level (at 70%) of minimum relative humidity (RHmin) was associated with a 33% (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.13–1.57) significant increase in the number of the disease; a high level (at 14 g/m³) of minimum absolute humidity (AHmin) was associated with a 30% (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.14–1.48); a high level (at 1.4 g/kg) of minimum specific humidity (SHmin) was associated with a 28% (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.04–1.57). The significant effects of these types of humidity occurred within the past month.

Conclusion

Humidity played a significant role in enhancing ST cases in Thailand, particularly at a high level and usually occurred within the past month. NB-DLNM had good controlled for the overdispersion and provided the precise estimated relative risk of non-linear associations. Results from this study contributed the evidence to support the Ministry of Public Health on warning system which might be useful for public health intervention and preparation in Thailand.

Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China

BACKGROUND

The emergence and re-emergence of scrub typhus has been reported in the past decade in many global regions. In this study, we aim to identify potential scrub typhus infection risk zones with high spatial resolution in Qingdao city, in which scrub typhus is endemic, to guide local prevention and control strategies.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Scrub typhus cases in Qingdao city during 2006-2018 were retrieved from the Chinese National Infectious Diseases Reporting System. We divided Qingdao city into 1,101 gridded squares and classified them into two categories: areas with and without recorded scrub typhus cases. A boosted regression tree model was used to explore environmental and socioeconomic covariates associated with scrub typhus occurrence and predict the risk of scrub typhus infection across the whole area of Qingdao city. A total of 989 scrub typhus cases were reported in Qingdao from 2006-2018, with most cases located in rural and suburban areas. The predicted risk map generated by the boosted regression tree models indicated that the highest infection risk areas were mainly concentrated in the mid-east and northeast regions of Qingdao, with gross domestic product (20.9%±1.8% standard error) and annual cumulative precipitation (20.3%±1.1%) contributing the most to the variation in the models. By using a threshold environmental suitability value of 0.26, we identified 757 squares (68.7% of the total) with a favourable environment for scrub typhus infection; 66.2% (501/757) of the squares had not yet recorded cases. It is estimated that 6.32 million people (72.5% of the total population) reside in areas with a high risk of scrub typhus infection.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Many locations in Qingdao city with no recorded scrub typhus cases were identified as being at risk for scrub typhus occurrence. In these at-risk areas, awareness and capacity for case diagnosis and treatment should be enhanced in the local medical service institutes.

Epidemiology of tsutsugamushi disease and its relationship with meteorological factors in Xiamen city, China

Tsutsugamushi disease (TD) is an acute infectious disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. This study aimed to analyze the epidemiological features of TD, investigate chigger mites and their hosts, and investigate the meteorological factors affecting TD incidence and the host of O. tsutsugamushi in Xiamen city, China. Data on reported TD cases were collected from 2006 to 2018. Spearman’s correlation test were used for identifying the relationship between meteorological factors and TD incidence and whether meteorological factors affect the host of O. tsutsugamushi. The incidence of reported TD increased gradually from 2006, reached a peak of 4.59 per 100,000 persons in 2014, and then decreased gradually. The TD incidence was seasonal, with epidemic periods occurred mainly in summer and autumn. Patients aged 40–60 years had the highest proportion of cases, accounting for 44.44% of the total cases. Farmers had the largest number of cases among all occupational groups. Rattus Norvegicus was the most common host, accounting for the largest proportion of rats (73.00%), and the highest rat density was observed in March and October every year. There were significant positive correlations between the number of reported cases and average temperature, sunshine duration, and rainfall as well as between rat density and average temperature. On phylogenetic analysis, 7 sequences of hosts and human TD cases obtained from health records demonstrated the highest similarities to the Kato, Karp, and Gilliam strains. No correlations were observed between rat density, and sunshine duration and rainfall. The transmission of TD in Xiamen city, China, was seasonal, and its incidence was affected by several meteorological factors including average temperature, sunshine duration, and rainfall. However, the host of O. tsutsugamushi was only affected by average temperature.

Tsutsugamushi disease (TD) is a natural focal disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, which is widespread in some areas. The incidence of TD is greatly influenced by meteorological factors. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the epidemiological features of TD, investigate chigger mites and their hosts, and explore the relationship between meteorological factors and TD incidence and whether meteorological factors affect the host of O. tsutsugamushi in Xiamen city, China. The results showed significant positive correlations between the number of reported cases and average temperature, sunshine duration, and rainfall. A positive correlation between rat density and average temperature. No correlations were observed between the rat density and sunshine duration and rainfall. We believe our findings may provide scientific basis for studies or health strategies conducted in areas that are meteorologically similar in characteristics with Xiamen city, China.

Mapping Seriphium plumosum encroachment and interaction with wildfire and environmental factors in a protected mountainous grassland

Accurate information on the distribution of invasive native species could provide important and effective procedures for managing savannah environment, especially in sensitive mountainous grasslands. The study detected and mapped Seriphium plumosum within a mountainous landscape and linked the georeferenced occurrence data with the corresponding site-specific environmental factors to predict the locations of unknown populations using a MaxEnt niche model. We also explored the relative contribution in terms of species interaction with its surrounding biophysical environment. The AUC value of 0.876 estimated for the species distribution is an indication of a good model fit. Our findings indicated that Seriphium plumosum preferred areas with higher temperature associated with recurrence fire events and limited soil moisture. It was concluded that the projected conditions of increasing temperature and fire events could promote widespread gain of niche space for Seriphium plumosum while at the same time altering community structure and composition, hydrological properties, and other vital ecosystem services in the study area.

Disease Ecology of Rickettsial Species: A Data Science Approach

We present an approach to assess the disease ecology of rickettsial species by investigating open databases and by using data science methodologies. First, we explored the epidemiological trend and changes of human rickettsial disease epidemics over the years and compared this trend with knowledge on emerging rickettsial diseases given by published reviews. Second, we investigated the global diversity of rickettsial species recorded in humans, domestic animals and wild mammals, using the Enhanced Infectious Disease Database (EID2) and employing a network analysis approach to represent and quantify transmission ecology of rickettsial species among their carriers, arthropod vectors or mammal reservoirs and humans. Our results confirmed previous studies that emphasized the increasing incidence in rickettsial diseases at the onset of 1970. Using the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Online Network (GIDEON) database, it was even possible to date the start of this increase of global outbreaks in rickettsial diseases in 1971. Network analysis showed the importance of domestic animals and peridomestic mammals in sharing rickettsial diseases with humans and other wild animals, acting as important hubs or connectors for rickettsial transmission.

Seroprevalence & seroincidence of Orientia tsutsugamushi infection in Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, India: A community-based serosurvey during lean (April-May) & epidemic (October-November) periods for acute encephalitis syndrome

Background & objectives

In India, acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) cases are frequently reported from Gorakhpur district in Uttar Pradesh. Scrub typhus is one of the predominant aetiological agents for these cases. In order to delineate the extent of the background of scrub typhus seroprevalence and the associated risk factors at community level, serosurveys during both lean and epidemic periods (phase 1 and phase 2, respectively) of AES outbreaks were conducted in this region.

Methods

Two community-based serosurveys were conducted during lean (April-May 2016) and epidemic AES (October-November 2016) periods. A total of 1085 and 906 individuals were enrolled during lean and epidemic AES periods, respectively, from different villages reporting recent AES cases. Scrub typhus-seronegative individuals (n=254) during the lean period were tested again during the epidemic period to estimate the incidence of scrub typhus.

Results

The seroprevalence of Orientia tsutsugamushi during AES epidemic period [immunoglobulin (Ig) IgG: 70.8%, IgM: 4.4%] was high as compared to that of lean AES period (IgG: 50.6%, P <0.001; IgM: 3.4%). The factors independently associated with O. tsutsugamushi positivity during lean AES period were female gender, illiteracy, not wearing footwear, not taking bath after work whereas increasing age, close contact with animals, source of drinking water and open-air defecation emerged as additional risk factors during the epidemic AES season. IgM positivity was significantly higher among febrile individuals compared to those without fever (7.7 vs. 3.5%, P=0.006). The seroincidence for O. tsutsugamushi was 19.7 per cent, and the subclinical infection rate was 54 per cent.

Interpretation & conclusions

The community-based surveys identified endemicity of O. tsutsugamushi and the associated risk factors in Gorakhpur region. The findings will be helpful for planning appropriate interventional strategies to control scrub typhus.

The estimated burden of scrub typhus in Thailand from national surveillance data (2003-2018)

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is a major cause of acute febrile illness in the tropics and is endemic over large areas of the Asia Pacific region. The national and global burden of scrub typhus remains unclear due to limited data and difficulties surrounding diagnosis.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Scrub typhus reporting data from 2003-2018 were collected from the Thai national disease surveillance system. Additional information including the district, sub-district and village of residence, population, geographical, meteorological and satellite imagery data were also collected for Chiangrai, the province with the highest number of reported cases from 2003-2018. From 2003-2018, 103,345 cases of scrub typhus were reported with the number of reported cases increasing substantially over the observed period. There were more men than women, with agricultural workers the main occupational group affected. The majority of cases occurred in the 15-64 year old age group (72,144/99,543, 72%). Disease burden was greatest in the northern region, accounting for 53% of the total reported cases per year (mean). In the northern region, five provinces-Chiangrai, Chiangmai, Tak, Nan and Mae Hong Son-accounted for 84% (46,927/55,872) of the total cases from the northern region or 45% (46,927/103,345) of cases nationally. The majority of cases occurred from June to November but seasonality was less marked in the southern region. In Chiangrai province, elevation, rainfall, temperature, population size, habitat complexity and diversity of land cover contributed to scrub typhus incidence.

INTERPRETATION

The burden of scrub typhus in Thailand is high with disease incidence rising significantly over the last two decades. However, disease burden is not uniform with northern provinces particularly affected. Agricultural activity along with geographical, meteorological and land cover factors are likely to contribute to disease incidence. Our report, along with existing epidemiological data, suggests that scrub typhus is the most clinically important rickettsial disease globally.

Spatio-temporal patterns of scrub typhus in mainland China, 2006-2017

Background

Scrub typhus, a serious public health problem in the Asia-Pacific area, is endemic in the “tsutsugamushi triangle” area. Scrub typhus has been widespread and has become a significant health concern in China. However, spatiotemporal patterns need to be investigated further.

Objective

This study aims to explore spatiotemporal patterns, diffusion characteristics and regional distribution differences of scrub typhus cases in mainland China from January 2006 to December 2017.

Method

Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level during 2006–2017 were obtained. Time-series analyses, spatial distribution analyses, spatial diffusion analyses, spatial autocorrelation analyses and space-time scan statistic analyses were used to explore spatiotemporal characteristics of scrub typhus.

Results

A total of 121 251 scrub typhus cases were reported in 30 provinces (or municipalities) of mainland China during 2006–2017, which rose exponentially. There were seasonal characteristics from June to November for scrub typhus. Scrub typhus had been diffused from south, southwest, southeast and eastern coasts to center, north, northeast and northwest in mainland China. Scrub typhus occurrences were from point to surrounding regions, and from south to north every year. The peak periods of scrub typhus became longer and longer from north to southwest to south in mainland China. There existed a single peak in Southwest region and North region, respectively, but existed a bimodal peak for South region. Scrub typhus cases were clustered in Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Anhui among June to November. The scrub typhus epidemics in Guangdong and Yunnan were the most serious.

Conclusions

The results in this study can be guide targeted public health interventions against scrub typhus at the county level.

Scrub typhus is a bacterial zoonosis caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi and is popular in the Asia-Pacific area. Nowadays scrub typhus has been widespread and causes a considerable burden on public health and economy in China. We investigated spatiotemporal patterns, diffusion characteristics and regional distribution differences of scrub typhus cases in mainland China from 2006 to 2017. The majority of scrub typhus cases were reported in June to November, and 98.3% of the total scrub typhus cases during 2006–2017 were reported in South region, Southwest region and North region. Scrub typhus had been diffused in mainland China except Qinghai. Scrub typhus occurrences were from point to surrounding regions, and from south to north every year. The peak periods of scrub typhus turn longer, and there existed a single peak to a bimodal peak from north to south. Scrub typhus cases were clustered in Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Anhui during June to November. The scrub typhus epidemics in Guangdong and Yunnan were the most serious.

Scrub typhus ecology: a systematic review of Orientia in vectors and hosts

Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is an important and neglected vector-borne zoonotic disease with an expanding known distribution. The ecology of the disease is complex and poorly understood, impairing discussion of public health interventions. To highlight what we know and the themes of our ignorance, we conducted a systematic review of all studies investigating the pathogen in vectors and non-human hosts. A total of 276 articles in 7 languages were included, with 793 study sites across 30 countries. There was no time restriction for article inclusion, with the oldest published in 1924. Seventy-six potential vector species and 234 vertebrate host species were tested, accounting for over one million trombiculid mites ('chiggers') and 83,000 vertebrates. The proportion of O. tsutsugamushi positivity was recorded for different categories of laboratory test and host species. Vector and host collection sites were geocoded and mapped. Ecological data associated with these sites were summarised. A further 145 articles encompassing general themes of scrub typhus ecology were reviewed. These topics range from the life-cycle to transmission, habitats, seasonality and human risks. Important gaps in our understanding are highlighted together with possible tools to begin to unravel these. Many of the data reported are highly variable and inconsistent and minimum data reporting standards are proposed. With more recent reports of human Orientia sp. infection in the Middle East and South America and enormous advances in research technology over recent decades, this comprehensive review provides a detailed summary of work investigating this pathogen in vectors and non-human hosts and updates current understanding of the complex ecology of scrub typhus. A better understanding of scrub typhus ecology has important relevance to ongoing research into improving diagnostics, developing vaccines and identifying useful public health interventions to reduce the burden of the disease.

Re-emergence of scrub typhus in Zhejiang Province, southern China: A 45-year population-based surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is the leading cause of treatable unidentified febrile illnesses in Southeast Asia. This study was conducted to document the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus and its change in Zhejiang, one of traditional epidemic provinces in China.

METHODS

Scrub typhus surveillance data in Zhejiang province during 1957-1989 and 2006-2012 were obtained. Descriptive analysis was conducted to characterize the epidemiology of scrub typhus. The spatial distributions over the periods were explored using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal cluster analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 4104 cases and 7 deaths were reported from 1957 to 1989 and 2006 to 2017. The incidence declined since 1959, remained low from 1967 to 1989, and then exponentially increased after 2006. The seasonality changed from a summer pattern between 1957 and 1989 to a bimodal peak pattern in July to August and October to November from 2006 to 2017. One primary and three secondary high-risk clusters were affirmed in both periods from 1980 to 1989 and 2006 to 2017. The primary cluster expanded southwestward and the time span of the secondary clusters extended in the later period compared to the clusters in the previous time frame.

CONCLUSION

Zhejiang recently underwent a seasonality change, geographic extension, and incidence increase in scrub typhus. More attention should be paid to controlling scrub typhus.

Analysis of epidemiological characteristics of four natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province, China in 2009-2017: A descriptive analysis

Background

Natural-focal diseases are serious diseases that endanger human health. They threaten about 100 million people in Shandong Province, and cause illness in thousands of people each year. However, information on the epidemiological characteristics of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province has been limited. The purpose of the study was to describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province, 2009–2017.

Methods

We describe the incidence and distribution of four natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province using surveillance data from 2009–2017.

Results

From 2009–2017, 11123 cases of four natural-focal diseases including 257 deaths were reported in Shandong Province, China. The four natural-focal diseases were severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA), typhus, and scrub typhus. The high-risk groups of the four diseases were farmers and the elderly. The incidence rate of scrub typhus was significantly higher in females. However, this difference was not seen in the other three diseases. The four diseases were mainly clustered in the middle-southern part of Shandong Province and the Shandong Peninsula. The annual incidence of SFTS and scrub typhus increased, typhus was relatively stable, and HGA declined. However, the range of SFTS expanded, while HGA shrunk, and typhus and scrub typhus were unchanged. The epidemic period of SFTS and HGA was from May to October, typhus was from October to November, and scrub typhus was from September to November. The fatality rates of SFTS, typhus, scrub typhus, and HGA were 9.19%, 0%, 0.01%, and 2.24%, respectively.

Conclusions

Our study described and analyzed the prevalence of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province, and confirmed that age was closely related to the SFTS fatality rate. This study may help to improve the understanding of the prevalence of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province in recent years and to better develop accurate prevention and control strategies for natural-focal diseases.

Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China

BACKGROUND

This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized.

SOURCES OF DATA

Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found.

GROWING POINTS

Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing.

AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.

Deforestation Increases the Risk of Scrub Typhus in Korea

Background: Scrub typhus is an important public health issue in Korea. Risk factors for scrub typhus include both individual-level factors and environmental drivers, and some are related to the increased density of vector mites and rodents, the natural hosts of the mites. In this regard, deforestation is a potential risk factor, because the deforestation-induced secondary growth of scrub vegetation may increase the densities of mites and rodents. To examine this hypothesis, this study investigated the association between scrub typhus and deforestation. Methods: We acquired district-level data for 2006-2017, including the number of cases of scrub typhus reported annually, deforestation level, and other covariates. Deforestation was assessed using preprocessed remote-sensing satellite data. Bayesian regression models, including Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models, were examined, and spatial autocorrelation was considered in hierarchical models. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using different accumulation periods for the deforestation level to examine the robustness of the association. Results: The final models showed a significant association between deforestation and the incidence of scrub typhus (relative risk = 1.20, 95% credible interval = 1.15-1.24). The sensitivity analysis gave consistent results, and a potential long-term effect of deforestation for up to 5 years was shown. Conclusion: The results support the potential public health benefits of forest conservation by suppressing the risk of scrub typhus, implying the need for strong engagement of public health sectors in conservation issues from a One Health perspective.

Scrub typhus in Jiangsu Province, China: epidemiologic features and spatial risk analysis

Background

With the increasing incidence of scrub typhus in recent years, it is of great value to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of scrub typhus by applying micro-geographical studies at a reasonably fine scale, and to guide the control and management.

Methods

We explored the use of maximum entropy modelling method to confirm the spatial and temporal distribution of scrub typhus according to the occurrence locations of human cases in Jiangsu Province. The risk prediction map under specific environmental factors was therefore drawn by projecting the training model across China. The area under the curve and the omission rate were used to validate the model. Meanwhile, Jackknife tests were applied to enumerate the contribution of different environmental variables, then to predict the final model. The predicted results were validated by using China’s known occurrence locations.

Results

A total of 566 occurrence locations with known 4865 scrub typhus occurrence records were used in our study. The number of female cases was higher than male cases, with a proportion of 1.17:1, and people in any age group could be infected. The number of cases presented an inverted-U relation with age. The percentage of cases aged from 60 to 69 years old was the highest, accounting for 30.50% of all cases. Ecological niche modelling results indicated that the locations of scrub typhus cases, which was of great importance in the disease transmission cycle, had a certain ecological niche with environmental elements in many dimensions. Moreover, the key environmental factors for determining scrub typhus occurrence were temperature (including temperature seasonality, min temperature of coldest month, mean diurnal range, and monthly mean temperature), precipitation of wettest month, and land cover types. The risk prediction maps indicated that mid-eastern China was the potential risk areas for scrub typhus of “autumn type”. Meanwhile, in our results, Guangdong Province was the high-risk region for “autumn type” scrub typhus, where cases were mainly reported as “summer type”.

Conclusion

The combination of climatic and geographic factors with GIS methods is an appropriate option to analyse and estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of scrub typhus.

Clinical characteristics and effective treatments of scrub typhus-associated hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis in children

Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is an uncommon and life-threatening disorder that may rarely complicate the clinical course of Orientia tsutsugamushi disease (scrub typhus). Here, we describe the clinical features, laboratory parameters, management, and outcome of 16 children with scrub typhus-associated HLH. All patients satisfied the HLH-2004 diagnostic criteria. All patients had fever of unknown origin and multisystem damage. Raised hepatic transaminases and abnormalities in routine blood test were observed in all children. Imaging tests showed abnormalities in 10 cases. Six patients were treated with intravenous azithromycin for 5 days, and 10 with intravenous chloramphenicol for 7–10 days because of non-response to 3-day azithromycin treatment. Five patients were treated with intravenous albumin and 3 with intravenous immunoglobulin. Two patients with severe symptoms (shortness of breath, cyanosis) were treated with dexamethasone (0.3 mg/kg/d). Fifteen patients recovered completely after 8–22 days of treatment. One patient died. The occurrence of severe complications draws attention to the need for early diagnosis and effective treatment. Anti-rickettsial antibiotic treatment (azithromycin or chloramphenicol) without the need for chemotherapy may be beneficial in such cases, instead of treatment according to the 2004 HLH protocol.

Awareness and Work-Related Factors Associated with Scrub Typhus: A Case-Control Study from South Korea

This study aimed to examine the awareness and the work-related factors associated with scrub typhus to provide data essential for evidence-based preventive strategies. A community-based case control study was carried out in the rural areas of Gyeongsangbuk-do, South Korea. Confirmed cases of scrub typhus (n = 57) were based on laboratory tests performed by the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), 114 matched neighborhood controls, age (±6 years), gender and area of residence in the Gyeongsangbuk-do of South Korea. These cases were contracted over the 12-month period of January to December 2015. Overall, 61.4% cases and 79.8% of the control group had heard about scrub typhus. Cases were less aware about the fact that mites are mainly found in the bushes and that long sleeves and full-length pants and boots helped prevent scrub typhus. However, more were aware of the eschar lesion as a characteristic sign of scrub typhus. Work related risk factors such as having a wetland or puddles of water surrounding the house, dry field farming and working in the livestock industry were significantly associated with the scrub typhus. Health promotion strategies, such as creating general awareness, personal protection methods and improving personal hygiene and environmental sanitation in collaboration with relevant sectors, are recommended to reduce the burden of scrub typhus. Further intervention studies on awareness and behavioral and environmental modifications are required to investigate the effectiveness of such interventions.

Risk Factors for Acquiring Scrub Typhus among the Adults

Background:

Behavioral and geographical factors may play a role in the acquisition of scrub typhus infection. In this prospective case–control study, we studied the factors associated with infection.

Patients and Methods:

Consecutive adult patients admitted with scrub typhus infection over 10 months were recruited. For every case, a geographical control from the same area and a gender-matched clinical control admitted with acute febrile illness were enrolled. The risk factors, which included sanitation, environment, activity, and protective measures, were compared between cases and controls using univariable and multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis and expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results:

The study cohort (n = 225; 132 female) aged 44 ± 17 years comprised of 75 cases and 150 controls from mid to low socioeconomic background. When compared with clinical controls, on univariable conditional regression analysis, cases were more likely to be involved in farming or gardening and less likely to have a toilet within the house. On multivariate regression analysis, only involvement in farming or gardening was associated with infection (OR: 4.2, 95% CI: 1.5–11.5). When compared with geographical controls, on univariable conditional regression analysis, cases were less likely to change undergarments or clothes before sleeping (OR: 3.5, 95% CI: 1.3–9.5) and more likely to have rodents in their house (OR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1–6.4) and rest on grass/mud without a mat (OR: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.1–5.3). On multivariate regression analysis, not changing undergarments or clothes tended to be associated with infection (OR: 2.7, 95% CI: 0.98–7.3).

Conclusion:

Certain behavioral factors predisposed our cohort to develop scrub typhus infection. Lifestyle changes may reduce the burden of scrub typhus in South India.

Scrub typhus: risks, diagnostic issues, and management challenges

Scrub typhus is an acute febrile illness in the “tsutsugamushi triangle”, transmitted by chiggers that can be treated effectively if detected early. Laboratory testing, including molecular and serological assays, is needed for confirming the diagnosis, especially in the absence of the pathognomonic eschar. In this review, factors that play a role in disease occurrence and clinical clues for diagnosis, in addition to risk factors contributing to disease severity, including mortality, are discussed in detail. Moreover, issues related to diagnostic assays, treatment, and mixed infections are also enumerated and described.

Climate variability, animal reservoir and transmission of scrub typhus in Southern China

Objectives

We aimed to evaluate the relationships between climate variability, animal reservoirs and scrub typhus incidence in Southern China.

Methods

We obtained data on scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou every month from 2006 to 2014 from the Chinese communicable disease network. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus.

Results

Wavelet analysis found the incidence of scrub typhus cycled with a period of approximately 8–12 months and long-term trends with a period of approximately 24–36 months. The DLNM model shows that relative humidity, rainfall, DTR, MEI and rodent density were associated with the incidence of scrub typhus.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the incidence scrub typhus has two main temporal cycles. Determining the reason for this trend and how it can be used for disease control and prevention requires additional research. The transmission of scrub typhus is highly dependent on climate factors and rodent density, both of which should be considered in prevention and control strategies for scrub typhus.

Scrub typhus has been endemic in southern China for several decades. In recent years, it has been increasingly reported and has become a significant health concern in China. The incidence of scrub typhus, a vector-borne disease, is influenced by the density of rats and changes in climate. Several studies have focused on the influence of climate and rat density on scrub typhus independent of one another; however, few studies investigate such factors simultaneously. Furthermore, global climate events such as El Niño have not been considered in any study of scrub typhus risk factors. This study reports novel factor research of scrub typhus in southern China. Data of climate, rat density and cases were collected on a monthly basis. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus. Finally, relative humidity, rainfall, DTR, MEI and rodent density were identified as risk factors of the incidence of scrub typhus.