Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reported risk factor histories: implications for imputing age of infection and modeling fibrosis progression

Reproductive Aging and Hepatic Fibrosis Progression in Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Hepatitis C Virus-Coinfected Women

BACKGROUND

Severity of hepatic fibrosis is greater in postmenopausal than in premenopausal women, perhaps owing to protective effects of estrogens. However, prior studies of estrogen and liver fibrosis lack serial fibrosis measures, adjustment for age, or longitudinal observations in coinfected populations.

METHODS

In a longitudinal cohort of women coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV), we assessed fibrosis progression across reproductive age, using validated serum fibrosis markers, aminotransferase platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis 4 (FIB-4). Fibrosis rate was evaluated within each woman as she transitioned from pre- to postmenopause, defined by a biomarker of ovarian function.

RESULTS

The median follow-up (n = 405) was 9.1 years (interquartile range, 5.0-15.2 years), with a median menopausal age of 49 years (47-52 years). When fully controlled for chronologic aging, the fibrosis progression rate was accelerated during perimenopause, as shown using FIB-4 (0.12 units per year faster than during premenopause; 95% confidence interval [CI], .02-.21; P = .01) and APRI (0.05 units per year faster; -.002 to .09; P = .06). Accelerated fibrosis was also observed during postmenopause compared with premenopause, for FIB-4 (0.14 units per year faster; 95% CI, -.01 to .29; P = .07) and APRI (0.07 units per year faster; -.003 to .15; P = .06). Accelerated fibrosis in perimenopause persisted after adjustment for Hispanic ethnicity, antiretroviral use, and alcohol (0.10 FIB-4 units per year faster than during premenopause; 95% CI, .008-.20; P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

In HIV/HCV-coinfected women, hepatic fibrosis accelerates with reproductive aging. Accelerated fibrosis begins in perimenopause, highlighting a previously unrecognized group of women at increased risk for advanced fibrosis and associated complications. Longitudinal analyses of fibrosis rates across reproductive age should be conducted in non-HCV-related liver diseases, given potential implications in a broader spectrum of women.

Neutralizing antibodies in patients with chronic hepatitis C and correlation to liver cirrhosis and estimated duration of infection

Although chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection accounts for 30% of individuals with cirrhotic livers worldwide, factors influencing disease progression are far from elucidated. The aim of this study was to determine whether the level of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) correlated with the development of cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection, genotype 1, when adjusting for estimated duration of infection. Thirty-nine patients with chronic hepatitis C, with either no/mild fibrosis (n = 23) or cirrhosis (n = 16), were enrolled from two university hospitals in Denmark. Duration of HCV infection was estimated based on patient information and/or anti-HCV seroconversion. Serial dilutions of purified serum/plasma derived IgGs were tested for their ability to neutralize six HCV-genotype 1 cell-culture strains. The results were expressed as the lowest IgG concentration yielding ≥50% neutralization (NAb50 -titer). A significant difference in HCV NAb50 -titers among the six genotype 1a/1b recombinants was found. In patients with cirrhosis, a tendency for higher level of NAbs was observed compared to patients with no/mild fibrosis, although not statistical significant. Stratifying the two groups revealed that being infected >25 years resulted in higher levels of NAbs in both. Furthermore, by correlating estimated duration of HCV infection to NAb50 -titers a significant result was found against two recombinants. The NAb titer does not differ significantly between HCV patients with either no/mild fibrosis or cirrhosis but show a tendency for increasing level with increased duration of infection. NAbs might contribute as a biological marker to increase the accuracy of patient based information on duration of HCV infection. J. Med. Virol. 88:1791-1803, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Responder Interferon λ Genotypes Are Associated With Higher Risk of Liver Fibrosis in HIV-Hepatitis C Virus Coinfection

Background. Liver fibrosis progresses faster in individuals coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Interferon λ3 (IFN-λ3) has both antiviral and proinflammatory properties. Genotypes at IFNL single-nucleotide proteins (SNPs; rs12979860CC and rs8099917TT) are linked to higher HCV clearance, potentially via rs8103142. We examined the relationship between IFN-λ genotypes and significant liver fibrosis in HIV-HCV coinfection.

Methods. From the prospective Canadian Co-infection Cohort (n = 1423), HCV RNA–positive participants in whom IFN-λ genotypes were detected and who were free of fibrosis, end-stage liver disease, and chronic hepatitis B at baseline (n = 485) were included. Time to significant fibrosis (defined as an aspartate transaminase level to platelet count ratio index [APRI] of ≥1.5) by IFN-λ genotypes was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards, with adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, alcohol use, CD4⁺ T-cell count, HCV genotype, γ-glutamyl transferase level, and baseline APRI. Haplotype analysis was performed, with adjustment for ethnicity.

Results. A total of 125 participants developed fibrosis over 1595 person-years (7.84 cases/100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.58–9.34 cases/100 person-years). Each genotype was associated with an increased fibrosis risk, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.37 (95% CI, .94–2.02) for rs12979860CC, 1.34 (95% CI, .91–1.97) for rs8103142TT, and 1.79 (95% CI, 1.24–2.57) for rs8099917TT. Haplotype TCT was also linked with a higher risk (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, .73–1.77]).

Conclusions. IFN-λ SNPs rs12979860, rs8099917, and rs81013142 were individually linked to higher rates of fibrosis in individuals with HIV-HCV coinfection. IFN-λ genotypes may be useful to target HCV treatments to people who are at higher risk of liver disease.

Tobacco Smoking Is Not Associated With Accelerated Liver Disease in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Hepatitis C Coinfection: A Longitudinal Cohort Analysis

Background. Tobacco smoking has been shown to be an independent risk factor for liver fibrosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in some cross-sectional studies. No longitudinal study has confirmed this relationship, and the effect of tobacco exposure on liver fibrosis in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-HCV coinfected individuals is unknown.

Methods. The study population consisted of participants from the Canadian Co-infection Cohort study (CTN 222), a multicenter longitudinal study of HIV-HCV coinfected individuals from 2003 to 2014. Data were analyzed for all participants who did not have significant fibrosis or end-stage liver disease (ESLD) at baseline. The association between time-updated tobacco exposure (ever vs nonsmokers and pack-years) and progression to significant liver fibrosis (defined as an aspartate-to-platelet ratio index [APRI] ≥1.5) or ESLD was assessed by pooled logistic regression.

Results. Of 1072 participants included in the study, 978 (91%) had ever smoked, 817 (76%) were current smokers, and 161 (15%) were previous smokers. Tobacco exposure was not associated with accelerated progression to significant liver fibrosis nor with ESLD when comparing ever vs never smokers (odds ratio [OR] = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43–1.69 and OR = 1.20, 95% CI, 0.21–2.18, respectively) or increases in pack-years smoked (OR = 1.05, 95% CI, 0.97–1.14 and OR = 0.94, 95% CI, 0.83–1.05, respectively). Both time-updated alcohol use in the previous 6 months and presence of detectable HCV ribonucleic acid were associated with APRI score ≥1.5.

Conclusions. Tobacco exposure does not appear to be associated with accelerated progression of liver disease in this prospective study of HIV-HCV coinfected individuals.

Hepatitis C virus and HIV seroprevalences, sociodemographic characteristics, behaviors and access to syringes among drug users, a comparison of geographical areas in France, ANRS-Coquelicot 2011 survey

BACKGROUND

People who use drugs (PWUDs) are at a high risk for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but they have different characteristics depending on the local context. In France, seroprevalence, sociodemographic, and behavior information have only been studied at a national level rather than at a local level. The aim of this study was to describe and examine profile and drug use practice differences in seven French cities and departments and to assess whether these differences can explain HCV and HIV seroprevalence variations between French geographical areas.

METHODS

Data were collected from the cross-sectional ANRS-Coquelicot survey conducted for the second time in 2011 among drug users having injected or snorted drugs at least once in their life. Professional interviewers administrated a face-to-face questionnaire in six different areas in France: Paris, Marseille, Bordeaux, Lille, Strasbourg and the Seine-Saint-Denis department (Paris suburbs). Participants were asked to self-collect a fingerpick blood sample in order to search for the presence of anti-HIV and anti-HCV antibodies and to estimate seroprevalence in PWUDs.

RESULTS

Overall, HCV and HIV seroprevalence was 44% [95% CI: 39.6-47.9] and 10% [95% CI: 7.5-12.6] respectively. The highest HCV seroprevalence was 56% in Marseille and the lowest was 24% in Bordeaux and for HIV the highest was 18% in Seine-Saint-Denis and the lowest was 0% in Lille. The population's age differed between areas and could mostly explain HCV seroprevalence variation but not exclusively. Profiles and practices, different in each area, can also explain this variation. In multivariate analysis, HCV seroprevalence was lower in Bordeaux (prevalence ratio [PR]=0.64), Strasbourg (PR=0.76), and Seine-Saint-Denis (PR=0.8) than in Paris. Nearly one-third of injectors declared having had difficulties to obtain syringes in the 6 previous months, but disparities existed between areas.

CONCLUSION

HCV risk exposure in PWUDs remains high in France and varies between different areas. Innovative harm reduction strategies including educative programs about safe injecting and supervised consumption rooms need to be developed.

Hepatic Fibrosis Progression in HIV-Hepatitis C Virus Co-Infection--The Effect of Sex on Risk of Significant Fibrosis Measured by Aspartate-to-Platelet Ratio Index

BACKGROUND

In Hepatitis C virus (HCV) mono-infection, male sex is associated with faster liver fibrosis progression but the effects of sex have not been well studied in HIV-HCV co-infected patients. We examined the influence of sex on progression to significant liver fibrosis in HIV-HCV co-infected adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) using the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a surrogate biomarker of liver fibrosis.

METHODS

We evaluated 308 HIV infected, HCV RNA positive participants of a Canadian multicentre prospective cohort receiving antiretrovirals and without significant liver fibrosis or end-stage liver disease at baseline. We used multivariate discrete-time proportional hazards models to assess the effect of sex on time to significant fibrosis (APRI≥1.5) adjusting for baseline age, alcohol use, cigarette smoking, HCV duration, and APRI and time-updated CD4 count and HIV RNA.

RESULTS

Overall, 55 (18%) participants developed an APRI ≥ 1.5 over 544 person-years of at-risk follow-up time; 18 (21%) women (incidence rate (IR)=14.0/100 PY; 7.5-20.4) and 37 (17%) men (IR=8.9/100 PY; 6.0-11.8). Women had more favourable profiles with respect to traditional risk factors for liver disease progression (younger, shorter duration of HCV infection and less alcohol use). Despite this, female sex was associated with a greater than two-fold increased risk of fibrosis progression (adjusted hazard rate (HR) =2.23; 1.22-4.08).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-HCV co-infected women receiving antiretroviral therapy were at significantly greater risk of progressing to liver fibrosis as measured by APRI compared with men. Enhanced efforts to engage and treat co-infected women for HCV are needed.

Marijuana smoking does not accelerate progression of liver disease in HIV-hepatitis C coinfection: a longitudinal cohort analysis

Background. Marijuana smoking is common and believed to relieve many symptoms, but daily use has been associated with liver fibrosis in cross-sectional studies. We aimed to estimate the effect of marijuana smoking on liver disease progression in a Canadian prospective multicenter cohort of human immunodeficiency virus/hepatitis C virus (HIV/HCV) coinfected persons.

Methods. Data were analyzed for 690 HCV polymerase chain reaction positive (PCR-positive) individuals without significant fibrosis or end-stage liver disease (ESLD) at baseline. Time-updated Cox Proportional Hazards models were used to assess the association between the average number of joints smoked/week and progression to significant liver fibrosis (APRI ≥ 1.5), cirrhosis (APRI ≥ 2) or ESLD.

Results At baseline, 53% had smoked marijuana in the past 6 months, consuming a median of 7 joints/week (IQR, 1–21); 40% smoked daily. There was no evidence that marijuana smoking accelerates progression to significant liver fibrosis (APRI ≥ 1.5) or cirrhosis (APRI ≥ 2; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.02 [0.93–1.12] and 0.99 [0.88–1.12], respectively). Each 10 additional joints/week smoked slightly increased the risk of progression to a clinical diagnosis of cirrhosis and ESLD combined (HR, 1.13 [1.01–1.28]). However, when exposure was lagged to 6–12 months before the diagnosis, marijuana was no longer associated with clinical disease progression (HR, 1.10 [0.95–1.26]).

Conclusions In this prospective analysis we found no evidence for an association between marijuana smoking and significant liver fibrosis progression in HIV/HCV coinfection. A slight increase in the hazard of cirrhosis and ESLD with higher intensity of marijuana smoking was attenuated after lagging marijuana exposure, suggesting that reverse causation due to self-medication could explain previous results.

Estimating complex multi-state misclassification rates for biopsy-measured liver fibrosis in patients with hepatitis C

For both clinical and research purposes, biopsies are used to classify liver damage known as fibrosis on an ordinal multi-state scale ranging from no damage to cirrhosis. Misclassification can arise from reading error (misreading of a specimen) or sampling error (the specimen does not accurately represent the liver). Studies of biopsy accuracy have not attempted to synthesize these two sources of error or to estimate actual misclassification rates from either source. Using data from two studies of reading error and two of sampling error, we find surprisingly large possible misclassification rates, including a greater than 50% chance of misclassification for one intermediate stage of fibrosis. We find that some readers tend to misclassify consistently low or consistently high, and some specimens tend to be misclassified low while others tend to be misclassified high. Non-invasive measures of liver fibrosis have generally been evaluated by comparison to simultaneous biopsy results, but biopsy appears to be too unreliable to be considered a gold standard. Non-invasive measures may therefore be more useful than such comparisons suggest. Both stochastic uncertainty and uncertainty about our model assumptions appear to be substantial. Improved studies of biopsy accuracy would include large numbers of both readers and specimens, greater effort to reduce or eliminate reading error in studies of sampling error, and careful estimation of misclassification rates rather than less useful quantities such as kappa statistics.

HIV and hepatitis C virus coinfection in Canada: challenges and opportunities for reducing preventable morbidity and mortality

OBJECTIVES

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has emerged as an important health problem in the era of effective HIV treatment. However, very few data exist on the health status and disease burden of HIV/HCV-coinfected Canadians.

METHODS

HIV/HCV-coinfected patients were enrolled prospectively in a multicentre cohort from 16 centres across Canada between 2003 and 2010 and followed every 6 months. We determined rates of a first liver fibrosis or endstage liver disease (ESLD) event and all-cause mortality since cohort enrolment and calculated standardized mortality ratios compared with the general Canadian population.

RESULTS

A total of 955 participants were enrolled in the study and followed for a median of 1.4 (interquartile range 0.5-2.3) years. Most were male (73%) with a median age of 44.5 years; 13% self-identified as aboriginal. There were high levels of current injecting drug and alcohol use and poverty. Observed event rates [per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval (CI)] were: significant fibrosis (10.21; 8.49, 12.19), ESLD (3.16; 2.32, 4.20) and death (3.72; 2.86, 4.77). The overall standardized mortality ratio was 17.08 (95% CI 12.83, 21.34); 12.80 (95% CI 9.10, 16.50) for male patients and 28.74 (95% CI 14.66, 42.83) for female patients. The primary causes of death were ESLD (29%) and overdose (24%).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed excessive morbidity and mortality in this HIV/HCV-coinfected population in care. Over 50% of observed deaths may have been preventable. Interventions aimed at improving social circumstances, reducing harm from drug and alcohol use and increasing the delivery of HCV treatment in particular will be necessary to reduce adverse health outcomes among HIV/HCV-coinfected persons.

Factors associated with discordance between absolute CD4 cell count and CD4 cell percentage in patients coinfected with HIV and hepatitis C virus

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis has been associated with decreased absolute CD4 cell counts but preserved CD4 cell percentage in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative persons. We evaluated factors associated with discordance between the absolute CD4 cell count and the CD4 cell percentage in a cohort of patients coinfected with HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV).

METHODS

Baseline data from 908 participants in a prospective, Canadian, multisite cohort of individuals with HIV-HCV coinfection were analyzed. Absolute CD4 cell count and CD4 cell percentage relationships were evaluated. We defined low and high discordance between absolute CD4 cell count/CD4 cell percentage relationships as CD4 cell percentages that differed from the expected CD4 cell percentage, given the observed absolute CD4 cell count, by ±7 percentage points; we defined very low and very high discordance as differences of ±14 percentage points. Factors associated with high or very high discordance, including either end-stage liver disease or aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index (APRI) of >1.5, were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression models and compared to groups with concordant and low discordant results.

RESULTS

High/very high discordance was seen in 31% (n = 286), while 35% (n = 321) had concordant values. Factors associated with very high discordance at baseline included history of end-stage liver disease (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 6.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.27-18.67) and APRI of >1.5 (aOR 4.69; 95% CI, 1.64-13.35). Compared with those with detectable HCV RNA, those who cleared HCV spontaneously were less likely to have very high discordance.

CONCLUSIONS

Discordance between absolute CD4 cell count and CD4 cell percentage is common in an HIV/HCV-coinfected population and is associated with advanced liver disease and ongoing HCV replication.

Progression of biopsy-measured liver fibrosis in untreated patients with hepatitis C infection: non-Markov multistate model analysis

Background

Fibrosis stages from liver biopsies reflect liver damage from hepatitis C infection, but analysis is challenging due to their ordered but non-numeric nature, infrequent measurement, misclassification, and unknown infection times.

Methods

We used a non-Markov multistate model, accounting for misclassification, with multiple imputation of unknown infection times, applied to 1062 participants of whom 159 had multiple biopsies. Odds ratios (OR) quantified the estimated effects of covariates on progression risk at any given time.

Results

Models estimated that progression risk decreased the more time participants had already spent in the current stage, African American race was protective (OR 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.95, p = 0.018), and older current age increased risk (OR 1.33 per decade, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.54, p = 0.0002). When controlled for current age, older age at infection did not appear to increase risk (OR 0.92 per decade, 95% confidence interval 0.47 to 1.79, p = 0.80). There was a suggestion that co-infection with human immunodeficiency virus increased risk of progression in the era of highly active antiretroviral treatment beginning in 1996 (OR 2.1, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 4.4, p = 0.059). Other examined risk factors may influence progression risk, but evidence for or against this was weak due to wide confidence intervals. The main results were essentially unchanged using different assumed misclassification rates or imputation of age of infection.

Discussion

The analysis avoided problems inherent in simpler methods, supported the previously suspected protective effect of African American race, and suggested that current age rather than age of infection increases risk. Decreasing risk of progression with longer time already spent in a stage was also previously found for post-transplant progression. This could reflect varying disease activity, with recent progression indicating active disease and high risk, while longer time already spent in a stage indicates quiescent disease and low risk.

Antiretroviral treatment interruption leads to progression of liver fibrosis in HIV-hepatitis C virus co-infection

OBJECTIVE

Despite potential negative consequences, HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infected patients may discontinue antiretroviral treatment (ART) for several reasons. We examined the impact of ART interruption on liver fibrosis progression in co-infected adults, using the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a surrogate marker of liver fibrosis.

METHOD

Data were analyzed from a multisite prospective cohort of 541 HIV-HCV co-infected adults. ART interruption was included as a time-updated variable and defined as the cessation of all antiretrovirals for at least 14 days. The primary endpoint was the development of an APRI score at least 1.5. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression and inverse probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) in a marginal structural model were used to evaluate the association of baseline and time-varying covariates with developing significant fibrosis.

RESULTS

Patients were followed for a median of 1.02 years; 10% (n = 53) interrupted ART and 10% (n = 53) developed significant fibrosis. After accounting for potential confounders, including CD4 T-cell count, HIV viral load, baseline APRI score, age and gender, the hazard ratio for ART interruption was 2.52 (95% confidence interval 1.20-5.28). Use of IPTW resulted in a similar effect estimate, suggesting that mediation by time-varying confounders was negligible.

CONCLUSION

ART interruption was associated with an increased risk of fibrosis progression in HIV-HCV co-infection that was only partially accounted for by HIV viral load and CD4 T-cell counts. Our findings suggest that liver disease progression observed in ART-treated co-infected patients is partly due to the consequences of treatment interruptions.

The natural history of hepatitis C infection acquired through injection drug use: meta-analysis and meta-regression

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Our aim was to estimate the rate of progression to cirrhosis for those infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) through injection drug use.

METHODS

We searched the published literature for articles assessing cirrhosis in this population and abstracted data on cirrhosis prevalence, mean duration of infection, mean age, mean alanine aminotransferase (ALT) enzyme levels, proportion of males, proportion HIV co-infected, proportion consuming excessive alcohol, and study setting. Summary progression rates were estimated using weighted averages and random effects Poisson meta-regression. The impact of co-variates was assessed by estimating the posterior probability that the relative risk (RR) of progression exceeded 1.0.

RESULTS

A total of 47 published articles were identified. After adjusting for covariates in 44 studies representing 6457 patients, the estimated rate of progression to cirrhosis, was 8.1 per 1000 person-years (95% credible region (CR), 3.9-14.7). This corresponds to a 20-year cirrhosis prevalence of 14.8% (95% CR, 7.5-25.5). A 5% increase in the proportion of male participants and a 5% increase in the proportion consuming excessive alcohol were associated with faster progression (probability RR>1=0.97 and 0.92, respectively). A 5% increase in the proportion of HIV co-infected, an increase in ALT of 5 IU/L and studies in settings with a high risk of referral bias were not associated with faster progression (probability RR>1=0.42, 0.65, and 0.43, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of aggregate level data suggests that for patients who contracted HCV through injection drug use prognosis is poor in populations with many male patients and high levels of alcohol consumption.

Impact of hepatitis C viral replication on CD4+ T-lymphocyte progression in HIV-HCV coinfection before and after antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

HIV is known to have a negative impact on the progression of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, whereas the reverse remains unclear. We examined the impact of spontaneous clearance of HCV on CD4(+) T-lymphocyte count progression before and after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-HCV coinfected adults.

METHODS

Data were analysed from participants in a Canadian, multisite prospective cohort of HIV-infected adults with serologic evidence of HCV infection. The rate of CD4(+) T-lymphocyte change was determined using multivariate mixed linear regression comparing chronically HCV RNA+ with spontaneous clearers (persistently HCV RNA- without HCV therapy).

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics of the 271 participants analysed did not differ between individuals whose HCV RNA cleared (n = 35) and those whose HCV RNA persisted (n = 236) except with respect to markers of liver disease. HCV RNA+ individuals had on average seven-times slower recovery of CD4(+) T-cells on chronic ART compared with HCV RNA-: (adjusted change in absolute CD4 cell T-lymphocyte count per year: 4 (95% confidence interval, -0.6 to 8) cells/microl vs. 26 (95% confidence interval, 12 to 41) cells/microl; P < 0.001. Analyses restricted to individuals initiating ART showed similar results. There was also a trend to greater CD4 decline prior to ART initiation among those HCV RNA+, although this did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSION

We found that CD4 cell progression is negatively affected by the presence of ongoing HCV replication in coinfected individuals initiating ART which persisted throughout stable ART suggesting active HCV infection affects immune restoration even after years of ART exposure.

Non-Markov multistate modeling using time-varying covariates, with application to progression of liver fibrosis due to hepatitis C following liver transplant

Multistate modeling methods are well-suited for analysis of some chronic diseases that move through distinct stages. The memoryless or Markov assumptions typically made, however, may be suspect for some diseases, such as hepatitis C, where there is interest in whether prognosis depends on history. This paper describes methods for multistate modeling where transition risk can depend on any property of past progression history, including time spent in the current stage and the time taken to reach the current stage. Analysis of 901 measurements of fibrosis in 401 patients following liver transplantation found decreasing risk of progression as time in the current stage increased, even when controlled for several fixed covariates. Longer time to reach the current stage did not appear associated with lower progression risk. Analysis of simulation scenarios based on the transplant study showed that greater misclassification of fibrosis produced more technical difficulties in fitting the models and poorer estimation of covariate effects than did less misclassification or error-free fibrosis measurement. The higher risk of progression when less time has been spent in the current stage could be due to varying disease activity over time, with recent progression indicating an "active" period and consequent higher risk of further progression.

Evaluation of morphological changes of the liver caused by heroin abuse in forensic practice

Background/Aim. A study of morphological lesions in the liver of heroin addicts enables a precise overview of the type and degree of the liver damages caused by intravenous (iv) heroin abuse, additive effects of viral infections and alcohol consumption, as well as whether the expressiveness of these lesions depends on the duration of the time period of heroin application. The aim of the study was to investigate histopathological, ultrastructural and morphometric features of the liver of heroin addicts in forensic samples of the liver. Methods. The study involved the autopsy conducted on 40 bodies of iv heroin addicts and 10 control autopsies. The investigated group consisted of liver samples of 36 male subjects and 4 female subjects aged 35-40 years and the control group of 8 male and 2 female cadaveric bodies aged 15-35 years. The liver tissue samples were prepared for light microscopy. Sections of the tissue paraffin blocks 5 ? thick were stained using classical Hematoxylin and Eosin method (H&E), as well as PAS Van Gieson, Gomori, and Congo Red techniques. For investigation purposes of ultrastructural changes, liver tissue was fixed in glutaraldehyde and molded with epon. The analysis was performed using the method of transmission electron microscopy. Morphometric investigation of the liver sinusoidal macrophages was performed by using the M42 test system. Results. In the investigated group of iv heroin addicts, the liver autopsy samples showed degenerative vesicular and fat changes, chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis, sedimentation of pathologic protein amyloidosis, dysplastic changes, reduction in the amount of glycogen in hepatocytes, as well as the change in the number of Kupfer and endothelial cells. The established changes correlated with the duration of iv heroin abuse, whereas sinusoidal macrophages were activated in cases with active hepatitis, and no significant change in their number was found in hepatocytes with alcohol-related fatty changes. Conclusion. The study showed that the most present change in the hepatocytes of drug addicts was vesicular degeneration, and it is the only direct consequence of the effect of heroin. Other morphological changes were present due to viral infections and they correlated with the duration of narcotic abuse. The finding of dysplastic changes in this susceptible population of young people is particularly significant. The forensic significance of the established changes in the liver tissue is in the possibility of their practical application for determination of the immediate cause of death of iv heroin addicts, as well as the differential diagnosis of not only heroin, but also alcohol, sedative and other substances abuse, and all that on the basis of morphological damages of the liver.

Hepatitis C infection among injecting drug users in England and Wales (1992-2006): there and back again?

Changes in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from 1992 to 2006 were examined by using 24,311 records from unlinked anonymous surveillance of injecting drug users in England and Wales. Bayesian logistic regression was used to estimate annual prevalence, accounting for changing recruitment patterns (age, gender, injecting duration, geographic region, interactions) and the sensitivity and specificity of different oral fluid testing devices. After controlling for these differences, the authors found that the adjusted HCV prevalence decreased from 70% (95% credible interval: 62, 78) in 1992 to 47% (95% credible interval: 43, 51) in 1998 before rising again to 53% (95% credible interval: 48, 58) in 2006. Women injecting drug users had a higher HCV risk than did men (odds ratio = 1.50, 95% credible interval: 1.31, 1.73). Two regions (London and North West) had a markedly higher HCV prevalence than did the rest of England and Wales. Among individuals who had injected for less than 1 year, the adjusted HCV prevalence in 2006 was higher than that in 1992 (28% vs. 19%, respectively). HCV infection can be prevented. The public health challenge in England and Wales is to increase action in order to regain a downward trend in HCV risk and the benefit that has been lost since 1998.

A national cross-sectional study among drug-users in France: epidemiology of HCV and highlight on practical and statistical aspects of the design

Background

Epidemiology of HCV infection among drug users (DUs) has been widely studied. Prevalence and sociobehavioural data among DUs are therefore available in most countries but no study has taken into account in the sampling weights one important aspect of the way of life of DUs, namely that they can use one or more specialized services during the study period. In 2004–2005, we conducted a national seroepidemiologic survey of DUs, based on a random sampling design using the Generalised Weight Share Method (GWSM) and on blood testing.

Methods

A cross-sectional multicenter survey was done among DUs having injected or snorted drugs at least once in their life. We conducted a two stage random survey of DUs selected to represent the diversity of drug use. The fact that DUs can use more than one structure during the study period has an impact on their inclusion probabilities. To calculate a correct sampling weight, we used the GWSM. A sociobehavioral questionnaire was administered by interviewers. Selected DUs were asked to self-collect a fingerprick blood sample on blotting paper.

Results

Of all DUs selected, 1462 (75%) accepted to participate. HCV seroprevalence was 59.8% [95% CI: 50.7–68.3]. Of DUs under 30 years, 28% were HCV seropositive. Of HCV-infected DUs, 27% were unaware of their status. In the month prior to interview, 13% of DUs shared a syringe, 38% other injection parapharnelia and 81% shared a crack pipe. In multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with HCV seropositivity were age over 30, HIV seropositivity, having ever injected drugs, opiate substitution treatment (OST), crack use, and precarious housing.

Conclusion

This is the first time that blood testing combined to GWSM is applied to a DUs population, which improve the estimate of HCV prevalence. HCV seroprevalence is high, indeed by the youngest DUs. And a large proportion of DUs are not aware of their status. Our multivariate analysis identifies risk factors such as crack consumption and unstable housing.

Meta-regression of hepatitis C virus infection in relation to time since onset of illicit drug injection: the influence of time and place

The authors examined the relation between time since onset of illicit drug injection (time at risk) and rates of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by using meta-regression. In 72 prevalence studies, median time since onset of injection was 7.24 years and median prevalence was 66.02%. The model showed statistically significant linear and quadratic effects of time at risk on HCV prevalence and significantly higher prevalence in developing and transitional countries and in earlier samples (1985-1995). In developed countries post-1995, mean fitted prevalence was 32.02% (95% confidence interval: 25.31, 39.58) at 1 year of injection and 53.01% (95% confidence interval: 40.69, 65.09) at 5 years. In developing/transitional countries post-1995, mean fitted HCV prevalence was 59.13% (95% confidence interval: 30.39, 82.74) at 1 year of injection. In 10 incidence studies, median time at risk was 5.29 years and median cumulative HCV incidence was 20.69%. Mean fitted cumulative incidence was 27.63% (95% confidence interval: 16.92, 41.70) at 1 year of drug injection. The authors concluded that time to HCV infection in developed countries has lengthened. More rapid onset of HCV infection in drug injectors in developing/transitional countries resembles an earlier era of the HCV epidemic in other regions.