Socio-environmental drivers and suicide in Australia: Bayesian spatial analysis

Australian Youth Self-Harm Atlas: spatial modelling and mapping of self-harm prevalence and related risk and protective factors to inform youth suicide prevention strategies

AIMS

Suicide prevention strategies have shifted in many countries, from a national approach to one that is regionally tailored and responsive to local community needs. Previous Australian studies support this approach. However, most studies have focused on suicide deaths which may not fully capture a complete understanding of prevention needs, and few have focused on the priority population of youth. This was the first nationwide study to examine regional variability of self-harm prevalence and related factors in Australian young people.

METHODS

A random sample of Australian adolescents (12-17-year-olds) were recruited as part of the Young Minds Matter (YMM) survey. Participants completed self-report questions on self-harm (i.e., non-suicidal self-harm and suicide attempts) in the previous 12 months. Using mixed effects regressions, an area-level model was built with YMM and Census data to produce out-of-sample small area predictions for self-harm prevalence. Spatial unit of analysis was Statistical Area Level 1 (average population 400 people), and all prevalence estimates were updated to 2019.

RESULTS

Across Australia, there was large variability in youth self-harm prevalence estimates. Northern Territory, Western Australia, and South Australia had the highest estimated state prevalence. Psychological distress and depression were factors which best predicted self-harm at an individual level. At an area-level, the strongest predictor was a high percentage of single unemployed parents, while being in an area where ≥30% of parents were born overseas was associated with reduced odds of self-harm.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified characteristics of regions with lower and higher youth self-harm risk. These findings should assist governments and communities with developing and implementing regionally appropriate youth suicide prevention interventions and initiatives.

Suicide deaths associated with climate change-induced heat anomalies in Australia: a time series regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Although environmental determinants play an important role in suicide mortality, the quantitative influence of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths remains relatively underexamined.

OBJECTIVE

The objective is to quantify the impact of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths in Australia from 2000 to 2019.

METHODS

A time series regression analysis using a generalised additive model was employed to explore the potentially non-linear relationship between temperature anomalies and suicide, incorporating structural variables such as sex, age, season and geographic region. Suicide deaths data were obtained from the Australian National Mortality Database, and gridded climate data of gridded surface temperatures were sourced from the Australian Gridded Climate Dataset.

FINDINGS

Heat anomalies in the study period were between 0.02°C and 2.2°C hotter than the historical period due to climate change. Our analysis revealed that approximately 0.5% (264 suicides, 95% CI 257 to 271) of the total 50 733 suicides within the study period were attributable to climate change-induced heat anomalies. Death counts associated with heat anomalies were statistically significant (p value 0.03) among men aged 55+ years old. Seasonality was a significant factor, with increased deaths during spring and summer. The relationship between high heat anomalies and suicide deaths varied across different demographic segments.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

This study highlights the measurable impact of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths in Australia, emphasising the need for increased climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in public health planning and suicide prevention efforts focusing on older adult men. The findings underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in addition to individual-level factors in understanding and reducing suicide mortality.

From individual resilience to collective response: reframing ecological emotions as catalysts for holistic environmental engagement

The ongoing international study on the mental health implications of climate change has prompted a deeper exploration of ecological emotions such as eco-anxiety, eco-worry and eco-grief, which are associated with environmental degradation and the escalating climate crisis. Although psychological and mental health literature has mainly presented preliminary conceptual analyses, the understanding of ecological emotions remains unclear. This narrative review aims to clarify the definition, highlight precipitating factors, and outline the effects of ecological emotions on mental health, emphasizing the need for thorough research to shift the nonclinical intervention approach from merely promoting individual resilience to encouraging collective engagement. Our analysis of the literature reveals that the existing theoretical framework, which predominantly focuses on bolstering individual resilience, provides only temporary relief for acute symptoms without addressing the foundational social and environmental factors that trigger these ecological emotions. We conclude that it is crucial to overcome the limitations of Western anthropocentrism's human-to-human interaction approach and embrace the unity of humans and nature to effectively manage the increasing ecological emotions. This perspective draws insights from the holistic and collective wisdom of indigenous cultures and traditional Chinese philosophy, offering a potential pathway toward maintaining a sustainable emotional balance amid the worsening global ecological turmoil.

An exploratory study on spatiotemporal clustering of suicide in Korean adolescents

BACKGROUND

Adolescent suicides are more likely to form clusters than those of other age groups. However, the definition of a cluster in the space-time dimension has not been established, neither are the factors contributing to it well known. Therefore, this study aimed to identify space-time clusters in adolescent suicides in Korea and to examine the differences between clustered and non-clustered cases using novel statistical methods.

METHODS

From 2016 to 2020, the dates and locations, including specific addresses from which the latitude and longitude of all student suicides (aged 9-18 years) in Korea were obtained through student suicide reports. Sociodemographic characteristics of the adolescents who died by suicide were collected, and the individual characteristics of each student who died by suicide were reported by teachers using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) analysis was used to assess the clustering of suicides.

RESULTS

We identified 23 clusters through the data analysis of 652 adolescent suicides using DBSCAN. By comparing the size of each cluster, we identified 63 (9.7%) spatiotemporally clustered suicides among adolescents, and the temporal range of these clusters was 7-59 days. The suicide cluster group had a lower economic status than the non-clustered group. There were no significant differences in other characteristics between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

This study has defined the space-time cluster of suicides using a novel statistical method. Our findings suggest that when an adolescent suicide occurs, close monitoring and intervention for approximately 2 months are needed to prevent subsequent suicides. Future research using DBSCAN needs to involve a larger sample of adolescents from various countries to further corroborate these findings.

Psychosis prevalence in London neighbourhoods; A case study in spatial confounding

Analysis of impacts of neighbourhood risk factors on mental health outcomes frequently adopts a disease mapping approach, with unknown neighbourhood influences summarised by random effects. However, such effects may show confounding with observed predictors, especially when such predictors have a clear spatial pattern. Here, the standard disease mapping model is compared to methods which account and adjust for spatial confounding in an analysis of psychosis prevalence in London neighbourhoods. Established area risk factors such as area deprivation, non-white ethnicity, greenspace access and social fragmentation are considered as influences on psychosis. The results show evidence of spatial confounding in the standard disease mapping model. Impacts expected on substantive grounds and available evidence are either nullified or reversed in direction. It is argued that the potential for spatial confounding to affect inferences about geographic disease patterns and risk factors should be routinely considered in ecological studies of health based on disease mapping.

Attributable risk of suicide for populations in Australia

Objective

Each year approximately 3,000 Australians die by suicide. We estimated the population attributable risk for identified target populations to provide evidence on how much of the overall burden of suicide in the Australian population is experienced by each of them.

Methods

We identified 17 demographic and clinical target populations at risk of suicide and calculated the population attributable fraction (PAF) using a single or pooled suicide risk and the proportional representation of each target population within Australia.

Results

Large PAF estimates were found for men (52%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 51%-53%), people bereaved by suicide (35%, 95% CI 14%-64%), people with a mental health or behavioural condition (33%, 95%CI 17%-48%), people with a chronic physical condition (27%, 95%CI 18%-35%), adults aged 25-64 years (13%, 95%CI 12%-14%), LGB populations (9%, 95%CI 6%-13%), offenders (9%, 95%CI 8%-10%), and people employed in blue collar occupations (8%, 95%CI 4%-12%).

Limitations

The PAF is limited by assumptions, namely, that risk factors are independent, and that the relationship between risk factors and outcomes are unidirectional and constant through time.

Conclusions and implications for public health

Considerable reductions in the overall suicide rate in Australia may occur if risk factors are addressed in identified populations with large PAF estimates. These estimates should be considered as an adjunct to other important inputs into suicide prevention policy priorities.

Association between mental health workforce supply and clusters of high and low rates of youth suicide: An Australian study using suicide mortality data from 2016 to 2020

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between mental health workforce supply and spatial clusters of high versus low incidence of youth suicide.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of spatial suicide clusters in young Australians (aged 10-25) from 2016 to 2020 was conducted using the scan statistic and suicide data from the National Coronial Information System. Mental health workforce was extracted from the 2020 National Health Workforce Dataset by local government areas. The Geographic Index of Relative Supply was used to estimate low and moderate-to-high mental health workforce supply for clusters characterised by a high and low incidence of suicide (termed suicide hotspots and coldspots, respectively). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the association between suicide clusters and a range of sociodemographic characteristics including mental health workforce supply.

RESULTS

Eight suicide hotspots and two suicide coldspots were identified. The multivariate analysis showed low mental health workforce supply was associated with increased odds of being involved in a suicide hotspot (adjusted odds ratio = 8.29; 95% confidence interval = 5.20-13.60), followed by residential remoteness (adjusted odds ratio = 2.85; 95% confidence interval = 1.68-4.89), and illicit drug consumption (adjusted odds ratio = 1.97; 1.24-3.11). Both coldspot clusters occurred in areas with moderate-to-high mental health workforce supply.

CONCLUSION

Findings highlight the potential risk and protective roles that mental health workforce supply may play in the spatial distributions of youth suicide clusters. These findings have important implications for the provision of postvention and the prevention of suicide clusters.

A Systematic Review of Areal Units and Adjacency Used in Bayesian Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Conditional Autoregressive Models in Health Research

Advancements in Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal modelling have been observed in recent years. Despite this, there are unresolved issues about the choice of appropriate spatial unit and adjacency matrix in disease mapping. There is limited systematic review evidence on this topic. This review aimed to address these problems. We searched seven databases to find published articles on this topic. A modified quality assessment tool was used to assess the quality of studies. A total of 52 studies were included, of which 26 (50.0%) were on infectious diseases, 10 (19.2%) on chronic diseases, 8 (15.5%) on maternal and child health, and 8 (15.5%) on other health-related outcomes. Only 6 studies reported the reasons for using the specified spatial unit, 8 (15.3%) studies conducted sensitivity analysis for prior selection, and 39 (75%) of the studies used Queen contiguity adjacency. This review highlights existing variation and limitations in the specification of Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models used in health research. We found that majority of the studies failed to report the rationale for the choice of spatial units, perform sensitivity analyses on the priors, or evaluate the choice of neighbourhood adjacency, all of which can potentially affect findings in their studies.

Ambient temperature and mental health: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence indicates that ambient outdoor temperature could affect mental health, which is especially concerning in the context of climate change. We aimed to comprehensively analyse the current evidence regarding the associations between ambient temperature and mental health outcomes.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence regarding associations between ambient outdoor temperature and changes in mental health outcomes. We searched WebOfScience, Embase, PsychINFO, and PubMed for articles published from database origin up to April 7, 2022. Eligible articles were epidemiological, observational studies in humans of all ages, which evaluated real-world responses to ambient outdoor temperature, and had mental health as a documented outcome; studies of manipulated or controlled temperature or those with only physical health outcomes were excluded. All eligible studies were synthesised qualitatively. If three or more studies reported the same or equivalent effect statistics and if they had equivalent exposure, outcome, and metrics, the studies were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. The risk of bias for individual studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The quality of evidence across studies was assessed using the Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) approach.

FINDINGS

114 studies were included in the systematic review, of which 19 were suitable for meta-analysis. Three meta-analyses were conducted for suicide outcomes: a 1°C increase in mean monthly temperature was associated with an increase in incidence of 1·5% (95% CI 0·8-2·2, p<0·001; n=1 563 109, seven effects pooled from three studies); a 1°C increase in mean daily temperature was associated with an increase in incidence of 1·7% (0·3-3·0, p=0·014; n=113 523, five effects pooled from five studies); and a 1°C increase in mean monthly temperature was associated with a risk ratio of 1·01 (95% CI 1·00-1·01, p<0·001; n=111 794, six effects pooled from three studies). Three meta-analyses were conducted for hospital attendance or admission for mental illness: heatwaves versus non-heatwave periods were associated with an increase in incidence of 9·7% (95% CI 7·6-11·9, p<0·001; n=362 086, three studies); the risk ratio at the 99th percentile of daily mean temperature compared with the 50th percentile was 1·02 (95% CI 1·01-1·03, p=0·006; n=532 296, three studies); and no significant association was found between a 10°C increase in daily mean temperature and hospital attendance. In a qualitative narrative synthesis, we found that ambient outdoor temperature (including absolute temperatures, temperature variability, and heatwaves) was positively associated with attempted and completed suicides (86 studies), hospital attendance or admission for mental illness (43 studies), and worse outcomes for community mental health and wellbeing (19 studies), but much of the evidence was of low certainty with high heterogeneity.

INTERPRETATION

Increased temperature and temperature variability could be associated with increased cases of suicide and suicidal behaviour, hospital attendance or admission for mental illness, and poor community health and wellbeing. Climate change is likely to increase temperature anomalies, variability, and heatwaves as well as average temperatures; as such, health system leaders and policy makers must be adequately prepared and should develop adaptation strategies. More high-quality, standardised research is required to improve our understanding of these effects.

FUNDING

None.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high ambient temperature across climate zones: methodological framework with a case study

BACKGROUND

With high temperature becoming an increasing health risk due to a changing climate, it is important to quantify the scale of the problem. However, estimating the burden of disease (BoD) attributable to high temperature can be challenging due to differences in risk patterns across geographical regions and data accessibility issues.

METHODS

We present a methodological framework that uses Köppen-Geiger climate zones to refine exposure levels and quantifies the difference between the burden observed due to high temperatures and what would have been observed if the population had been exposed to the theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution (TMRED). Our proposed method aligned with the Australian Burden of Disease Study and included two parts: (i) estimation of the population attributable fractions (PAF); and then (ii) estimation of the BoD attributable to high temperature. We use suicide and self-inflicted injuries in Australia as an example, with most frequent temperatures (MFTs) as the minimum risk exposure threshold (TMRED).

RESULTS

Our proposed framework to estimate the attributable BoD accounts for the importance of geographical variations of risk estimates between climate zones, and can be modified and adapted to other diseases and contexts that may be affected by high temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

As the heat-related BoD may continue to increase in the future, this method is useful in estimating burdens across climate zones. This work may have important implications for preventive health measures, by enhancing the reproducibility and transparency of BoD research.

Analiza przypadków samobójstw w materiale sekcyjnym Katedry Medycyny Sądowej Collegium Medicum w Bydgoszczy Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika w Toruniu w latach 2011-2020

Cel pracy: Analiza samobójstw na podstawie sądowo-lekarskich sekcji zwłok przeprowadzonych w Katedrze Medycyny Sądowej w Bydgoszczy w porównaniu z danymi z lat wcześniejszych i innych ośrodków. Materiał i metody: Ocenie poddano 6564 opinii sądowo-lekarskich z przeprowadzonych badań pośmiertnych z lat 2011-2020, wśród których wyodrębniono 1073 przypadki samobójstw, uwzględniając płeć i wiek pokrzywdzonych, miejsce w którym dokonano czynu samobójczego, wpływ alkoholu lub innych środków odurzających, sposoby popełniania samobójstw oraz data (miesiąc i rok). Wyniki: Samobójstwa stanowiły 16,34% wszystkich badań pośmiertnych. Najczęstszą metodą samobójstwa było powieszenie – 73%. Drugim co do częstości sposobem odebrania sobie życia był upadek z wysokości –8%. Najliczniejszą grupą wiekową wśród popełniających samobójstwo stanowią osoby pomiędzy 51, a 60 rokiem życia. W większości przypadków samobójcy byli trzeźwi. Widoczna jest istotna różnica pomiędzy stanem trzeźwości, a płcią ofiary. Zdecydowanie częściej pod wpływem alkoholu w trakcie dokonania samobójstwa były ofiary płci męskiej. 14% ogółu samobójstw popełniły kobiety, zaś 86% mężczyźni. Nieco częściej zgon w wyniku samobójstwa miał miejsce w granicach dużych aglomeracji miejskich, niż na terenie miasteczek i wsi. Wnioski: Badania wykazały wzrost odsetka samobójstw w stosunku do lat poprzednich. Powieszenie nadal jest najczęstszym sposobem samobójstwa. Odnotowano wzrost liczby samobójstw osób w wieku podeszłym oraz zwiększenie liczby tzw. samobójstw kombinowanych. Słowa kluczowe: samobójstwa, sekcja zwłok Analysis of suicide cases in the autopsy material of the Department of Forensic Medicine Collegium Medicum in Bydgoszcz, University of Nicolaus Copernicus in Toruń in 2011-2020 Aim of the study: Analysis of suicides on the basis of forensic post mortem examinations conducted at the Department of Forensic Medicine in Bydgoszcz in comparison with data from previous years and other centers. Material and methods: The assessment included 6,564 forensic medical opinions from the post mortem examinations carried out in 2011–2020, including 1,073 cases of suicide, taking into account the sex and age of the victims, the place where the suicide was committed, the influence of alcohol or other intoxicants, methods of committing suicides and date (month and year). Results: Suicides accounted for 16.34% of all post mortem examinations. The most common method of suicide was hanging – 73%. The second most common way to take your own life was fall from height – 8%. The most numerous age group among those committing suicide are people between 51 and 60 years of age. In most cases, the suicide victims were sober. There is a significant difference between the state of sobriety and the gender of the victim. Male victims were much more often under the influence of alcohol during the suicide. 14% of all suicides were committed by women, and 86% by men. Death as a result of suicide took place somewhat more often within the boundaries of large urban agglomerations than in towns and villages. Conclusions: The research showed an increase in the suicide rate compared to the previous years. Hanging is still the most common form of suicide. There has been an increase in the number of suicides in the elderly and an increase in the number of so-called combined suicides.

Saving light, losing lives: How daylight saving time impacts deaths from suicide and substance abuse

This paper estimates the impact of Daylight Saving Time (DST) on deaths from suicide and substance abuse in the United States. Using Multiple Cause-of-Death Mortality Data from the National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics from 1979 to 1988, the effect is identified in two ways: a regression discontinuity design that exploits discrete time changes in the Spring and Fall; and a fixed effects model that uses a policy change and a switching mechanism that introduces random variation to DST's start and end dates. This is one of the first attempts to estimate the impact of DST on deaths due to suicide and substance abuse and the first to use either identification strategy. The results from both methods suggest that the sleep disruptions during the Spring transition cause the suicide rate to rise by 6.25 percent and the death rate from suicide and substance abuse combined to increase by 6.59 percent directly after the time change. There is no evidence for any change in these outcomes during the Fall transition. The contrasting results from Spring to Fall suggest the entire effect can be attributed to disruptions in sleep patterns rather than changes in ambient light exposure.

Climate rather than economic variables might have caused increase in US homicide but not suicide rates during the Great Depression

BACKGROUND

It is widely believed that during the Great Depression (1929-1933) there was a rise in suicidal rates which was causally related to the increase in unemployment. There are no studies on the effect the Great Depression had on homicidal rates METHODS: The data concerning suicide, homicide, economic and climatic variables for the years 1900-1940 for the whole of the US were gathered from the US Center for Disease Control, the Maddison Project, the National Bureau of Economic Research and the National Climatic Data Center. Time Series Analysis was performed.

RESULTS

The results are inconclusive on the role of economic factors but preclude any role of climate on suicidal rates during the years 1900-1940 in the US. Suicidal rates might have a 24-years periodicity, however much longer time series are needed to confirm this. On the contrary they strongly suggest an effect of higher temperatures on homicidal rates after 1922.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the current study suggest a direct and clear effect of climate (higher temperatures) on the increasing homicidal rates in the US after 1922 but failed to establish a causal relationship between suicide rates and economic or climate variables. These should be considered together with increasing concerns on the possible effect of climate change on mental health.

The impact of macroeconomic factors on suicide in 175 countries over 27 years

BACKGROUND

Every year, more than 800,000 people die by suicide, three-quarters of which are males. Economic factors influence suicide rates, but a worldwide perspective of their impact according to age and sex is lacking.

METHOD

We queried publicly available datasets on economic factors and on suicide rates stratified according to sex and age, from 1991 to 2017, for 175 countries. Thus, we analyzed approximately 21 million deaths by suicide using a multivariable regression model approach.

RESULTS

Every 1% increase in global unemployment rates is associated with a 1% upsurge in male deaths by suicide (Relative risk (RR) = 1.01 [CI 95% 1.00-1.01] with respect to females) or 5000 excess male deaths. A 1% higher unemployment rate also exerts age-specific effects on suicide rates, since, among adults aged 30-59, the suicide rate is increased by 2-3%. Lastly, for every 1000 US dollar increase in the GDP per capita, suicide rates are reduced by 2% (RR = 0.98 [0.98-0.98]), corresponding to a reduction of 14,000-15,000 suicide deaths per year globally.

CONCLUSIONS

Males who have lost their jobs in adulthood are those at higher risk of suicide and to whom financial support measures should be delivered in a timely manner.

Suicide disparities across metropolitan areas in the US: A comparative assessment of socio-environmental factors using a data-driven predictive approach

Disparity in suicide rates across various metropolitan areas in the US is growing. Besides personal genomics and pre-existing mental health conditions affecting individual-level suicidal behaviors, contextual factors are also instrumental in determining region-/community-level suicide risk. However, there is a lack of quantitative approach to model the complex associations and interplays of the socio-environmental factors with the regional suicide rates. In this paper, we propose a holistic data-driven framework to model the associations of socio-environmental factors (demographic, socio-economic, and climate) with the suicide rates, and compare the key socio-environmental determinants of suicides across the large and medium/small metros of the vulnerable US states, leveraging a suite of advanced statistical learning algorithms. We found that random forest outperforms all the other models in terms of both in-sample goodness-of-fit and out-of-sample predictive accuracy, which is then used for statistical inferencing. Overall, our findings show that there is a significant difference in the relationships of socio-environmental factors with the suicide rates across the large and medium/small metropolitan areas of the vulnerable US states. Particularly, suicides in medium/small metros are more sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors, while that in large metros are more sensitive to climatic factors. Our results also indicate that non-Hispanics, native Hawaiian or Pacific islanders, and adolescents aged 15-29 years, residing in the large metropolitan areas, are more vulnerable to suicides compared to those living in the medium/small metropolitan areas. We also observe that higher temperatures are positively associated with higher suicide rates, with large metros being more sensitive to such association compared to that of the medium/small metros. Our proposed data-driven framework underscores the future opportunities of using big data analytics in analyzing the complex associations of socio-environmental factors and inform policy actions accordingly.

Genomic Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Pakistan

COVID-19 has swept globally and Pakistan is no exception. To investigate the initial introductions and transmissions of the SARS-CoV-2 in Pakistan, we performed the largest genomic epidemiology study of COVID-19 in Pakistan and generated 150 complete SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from samples collected from March 16 to June 1, 2020. We identified a total of 347 mutated positions, 31 of which were over-represented in Pakistan. Meanwhile, we found over 1000 intra-host single-nucleotide variants (iSNVs). Several of them occurred concurrently, indicating possible interactions among them or coevolution. Some of the high-frequency iSNVs in Pakistan were not observed in the global population, suggesting strong purifying selections. The genomic epidemiology revealed five distinctive spreading clusters. The largest cluster consisted of 74 viruses which were derived from different geographic locations of Pakistan and formed a deep hierarchical structure, indicating an extensive and persistent nation-wide transmission of the virus that was probably attributed to a signature mutation (G8371T in ORF1ab) of this cluster. Furthermore, 28 putative international introductions were identified, several of which are consistent with the epidemiological investigations. In all, this study has inferred the possible pathways of introductions and transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 in Pakistan, which could aid ongoing and future viral surveillance and COVID-19 control.

Is there an association between hot weather and poor mental health outcomes? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Mental health is an important public health issue globally. A potential link between heat exposure and mental health outcomes has been recognised in the scientific literature; however, the associations between heat exposure (both high ambient temperatures and heatwaves) and mental health-related mortality and morbidity vary between studies and locations.

OBJECTIVE

To fill gaps in knowledge, this systematic review aims to summarize the epidemiological evidence and investigate the quantitative effects of high ambient temperatures and heatwaves on mental health-related mortality and morbidity outcomes, while exploring sources of heterogeneity.

METHODS

A systematic search of peer-reviewed epidemiological studies on heat exposure and mental health outcomes published between January 1990 and November 2020 was conducted using five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and PsycINFO). We included studies that examined the association between high ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and mental health-related mortality and morbidity (e.g. hospital admissions and emergency department visits) in the general population. A range of mental health conditions were defined using ICD-10 classifications. We performed random effects meta-analysis to summarize the relative risks (RRs) in mental health outcomes per 1 °C increase in temperature, and under different heatwaves definitions. We further evaluated whether variables such as age, sex, socioeconomic status, and climate zone may explain the observed heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The keyword search yielded 4560 citations from which we identified 53 high temperatures/heatwaves studies that comprised over 1.7 million mental health-related mortality and 1.9 million morbidity cases in total. Our findings suggest associations between heat exposures and a range of mental health-related outcomes. Regarding high temperatures, our meta-analysis of study findings showed that for each 1 °C increase in temperature, the mental health-related mortality and morbidity increased with a RR of 1.022 (95%CI: 1.015-1.029) and 1.009 (95%CI: 1.007-1.015), respectively. The greatest mortality risk was attributed to substance-related mental disorders (RR, 1.046; 95%CI: 0.991-1.101), followed by organic mental disorders (RR, 1.033; 95%CI: 1.020-1.046). A 1 °C temperature rise was also associated with a significant increase in morbidity such as mood disorders, organic mental disorders, schizophrenia, neurotic and anxiety disorders. Findings suggest evidence of vulnerability for populations living in tropical and subtropical climate zones, and for people aged more than 65 years. There were significant moderate and high heterogeneities between effect estimates in overall mortality and morbidity categories, respectively. Lower heterogeneity was noted in some subgroups. The magnitude of the effect estimates for heatwaves varied depending on definitions used. The highest effect estimates for mental health-related morbidity was observed when heatwaves were defined as "mean temperature ≥90th percentile for ≥3 days" (RR, 1.753; 95%CI: 0.567-5.421), and a significant effect was also observed when the definition was "mean temperature ≥95th percentile for ≥3 days", with a RR of 1.064 (95%CI: 1.006-1.123).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the hypothesis of a positive association between elevated ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and adverse mental health outcomes. This problem will likely increase with a warming climate, especially in the context of climate change. Further high-quality studies are needed to identify modifying factors of heat impacts.

Bimodal effects of sunlight on major depressive disorder

BACKGROUND

Seasonal patterns in the effect of sunlight on depression, where depression decreases when sunlight increases, have been observed in previous studies. In this study, we demonstrate a bimodal effect of sunlight on depression - short-term increases in sunlight increase depression and long-term increases in sunlight decrease depression. The analysis showed that the significant effect of sunlight is temporary and appears only when seasonal changes are severe within a given year.

METHODS

We analyzed approximately 530,000 cases where patients visited hospital for depression in Korea from January 1 to December 31, 2016. We measured the daily average amount of sunlight and daily sunlight for the 30 days previous to the day of measurement using data from 96 weather stations. To analyze the effect of sunlight, several climatic variables and local dummies were added to the negative binomial model, and the period in which the effect of sunlight was significant was derived as a term of the interaction between the month variable and sunlight.

RESULTS

When the average effects of climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity were removed, the number of cases of depression increased when the daily average amount of sunlight increased [IRR = 1.024 (95% CI: 1.009 to 1.039)]; this effect was significant only in January and May. The number of cases of depression decreased with higher daily average sunlight for the previous 30 days increasing [IRR = 0.917 (95% CI: 0.892 to 0.944)], and this effect was significant only in January, March, and May.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of sunlight on depression appears in both the short and long terms, but the effect is significant only for limited periods. The data examined in this study supports a pattern where short-term daily sunlight increases depression and daily sunlight for the previous 30 days decreases depression.

Suicide along the Australian coast: Exploring the epidemiology and risk factors

Suicide is an increasing global concern with multiple risk factors, yet location-based understanding is limited. In Australia, surf lifesavers (SLS) and lifeguards patrol the coast, performing rescues and assisting injured people, including people who suicide. This study is a descriptive epidemiological analysis of Australian coastal suicide deaths. The results will be used to inform training and support surf lifesaving personnel and suicide prevention organisations. This is a population-based cross-sectional study of suicide deaths at Australian coastal locations (between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2019). Data were sourced from the National Coronial Information System and SLS Australia's Incident Report Database. Analyses explored decedent, incident, and risk factors by sex and method. Across the study period, there were 666 coastal suicide deaths (71.0% male, 43.4% jumping from high places [X80]). Males were more likely to suicide by other means (hanging, self-poisoning, firearm discharge; n = 145, 83.8%), compared to females who were more likely to suicide by drowning ([X71]; n = 77, 37.7%). In one third (n = 225, 38.3%) toxicology was a contributing factor. The risk of coastal suicides was 10.3 times higher during the seven-days prior to their birthday (p<0.001). Evidence of mental ill health was reported in 61.4% (n = 409) of cases and evidence of suicidal behaviour was reported for 37.4% of decedents (n = 249), more prevalent in females. SLS responded in 10.7% (n = 71) of coastal suicides (most jumps from high places; n = 36, 50.7%). Coastal suicides differ to national trends suggesting that location-based differences should be considered during development of preventative and protective measures, especially at a community level. Accessibility, availability, perceived lethality and symbolic qualities are proposed to influence suicide location decisions. These results will guide support and education strategies for surf lifesaving personnel, contributes to established, ongoing suicide surveillance efforts (including hot-spot identification) and add to the limited literature exploring place-based suicide.

Sunshine, temperature and suicidal behaviour in patients treated with antidepressants: an explorative nested case-control study

Our aim was to explore if different exposure windows for sunshine or temperature are associated with increased suicidal behaviour among people starting antidepressant treatment. 307 completed and 1674 attempted suicides were included as cases in the conditional logistic regression analyses, while controlling for potential confounders, including season, as well as temperature and hours of sunshine when these variables were not the main exposure variable. Ten controls were matched to each case using risk-set sampling. The role of season, age, and sex was examined with likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) with and without the respective interaction terms and with stratified analyses. There was no overall association between temperature or sunshine with suicidal behaviour. Age was a significant effect modifier for suicide and suicide attempt for both sunshine and temperature exposure. In stratified analyses, an increase of one degree Celsius in the average daily temperature during the last 4 weeks was associated, in the unadjusted model, with a 3% increase in the rate of suicide (p = 0.023) amongst older patients (65+). In the same age group, an increase of 1 h in the average daily sunshine during the last 4 weeks was associated with an 8% increase in the rate of suicide attempt (p = 0.002), while the respective increase for the exposure period of 5–8 weeks was 7% (p = 0.007). An increase of one degree Celsius in the average daily temperature during the last 4 weeks was associated with a 3% increase in the rate of suicide attempt (p = 0.007). These associations did not retain statistical significance in the adjusted models. No associations were found in the other age groups. Our results point to a possible effect modification by age, with higher risk of suicidal behavior associated with an increase in sunshine and temperature found in the older age groups.

Climate Change and Mental Health: A Scoping Review

Climate change is negatively impacting the mental health of populations. This scoping review aims to assess the available literature related to climate change and mental health across the World Health Organisation's (WHO) five global research priorities for protecting human health from climate change. We conducted a scoping review to identify original research studies related to mental health and climate change using online academic databases. We assessed the quality of studies where appropriate assessment tools were available. We identified 120 original studies published between 2001 and 2020. Most studies were quantitative (n = 67), cross-sectional (n = 42), conducted in high-income countries (n = 87), and concerned with the first of the WHO global research priorities-assessing the mental health risks associated with climate change (n = 101). Several climate-related exposures, including heat, humidity, rainfall, drought, wildfires, and floods were associated with psychological distress, worsened mental health, and higher mortality among people with pre-existing mental health conditions, increased psychiatric hospitalisations, and heightened suicide rates. Few studies (n = 19) addressed the other four global research priorities of protecting health from climate change (effective interventions (n = 8); mitigation and adaptation (n = 7); improving decision-support (n = 3); and cost estimations (n = 1)). While climate change and mental health represents a rapidly growing area of research, it needs to accelerate and broaden in scope to respond with evidence-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Household income inequality aggravates high-temperature exposure inequality in urban China

The exposure to extremely high temperatures varies across population groups. Those with better adaptation strategies (such as air conditioning) suffer less. This paper combines China's daily mean temperature data with comprehensive national survey data at the household level and estimates the relationship between high-temperature exposure and adaptation behavior of urban dwellers. We find that the usage of air conditioning and electric fans by urban households in China increases with their summer high-temperature exposures. The rise in the number of days with extreme heat (mean temperature exceeding 80 °F) induces the purchase and use of air conditioning. High-temperature adaptability varied across households-the rich are more likely to increase air conditioning usage to cope with the high-temperature discomfort; while the poor are less likely to afford such a market product for adaptation, they suffer more from high-temperature exposure. Such a variation in the affordability and usage of market products to adapt to climate risks will exacerbate the climate-induced inequality.

Geospatial context of social and environmental factors associated with health risk during temperature extremes: Review and discussion

This study reviews forty-six publications between 2008 and 2017 dealing with socio-environmental impacts on adverse health effects of temperature extremes, in a geospatial context. The review showed that most studies focus on extremely hot weather but lack analysis of how spatial heterogeneity across a region can influence cold mortality/morbidity. There are limitations regarding the use of temperature datasets for spatial analyses. Only a few studies have applied air temperature datasets with high spatial resolution to health studies, but none of these studies have used anthropogenic heat as a factor for analysis of health risk. In addition, the elderly is generally recognized as a vulnerable group in most studies, but the interaction between old age and temperature risk varies by location. Other socio-demographic factors such as low income, low education and accessibility to community shelters may also need to be considered in the future. There are only a few studies which investigate the interaction between temperature and air pollution in a geospatial context, despite the fact that this is a known interaction that can influence health risk under extreme weather. In conclusions, although investigation of temperature effects on health risk is already at the "mature stage", studies of socio-environmental influences on human health under extreme weather in a geospatial context is still being investigated. A comprehensive assessment is required to analyse how the spatial aspects of the geophysical and social environments can influence human health under extreme weather, in order to develop a better community plan and health protocols for disaster preparedness.

Suicide mortality among youth in southern Brazil: a spatiotemporal evaluation of socioeconomic vulnerability

Objective:

To conduct a geospatial analysis of suicide deaths among young people in the state of Paraná, southern Brazil, and evaluate their association with socioeconomic and spatial determinants.

Methods:

Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Data on suicide mortality rates (SMR) were extracted for three age groups (15-19, 20-24, and 25-29 years) from two 5-year periods (1998-2002 and 2008-2012). Geospatial data were analyzed through exploratory spatial data analysis. We applied Bayesian networks algorithms to explore the network structure of the socioeconomic predictors of SMR.

Results:

We observed spatial dependency in SMR in both periods, revealing geospatial clusters of high SMR. Our results show that socioeconomic deprivation at the municipality level was an important determinant of suicide in the youth population in Paraná, and significantly influenced the formation of high-risk SMR clusters.

Conclusion:

While youth suicide is multifactorial, there are predictable geospatial and sociodemographic factors associated with high SMR among municipalities in Paraná. Suicide among youth aged 15-29 occurs in geographic clusters which are associated with socioeconomic deprivation. Rural settings with poor infrastructure and development also correlate with increased SMR clusters.

Associations between ambient high temperatures and suicide mortality: a multi-city time-series study in China

Suicide prevention has become a public health issue of great concern. Previous studies proved that ambient temperature had an impact on suicide death, but few studies focus on regional studies in large cities. We aimed to estimate the association between ambient temperature and suicide in 31 capital cities in China during 2008~2013. Distributed lag non-linear model was used to explore the relationship between ambient temperature and suicide, adjusting for long-term trend, seasonality, and humidity confounders. Multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the city-specific estimates to explore the overall relative risk in China. High temperature had a significant impact on suicide death. The country-level relative risk of high temperature on suicide was 1.37 (95% CI, 0.96~2.57), and the RR was higher in male and age < 65-year-old group than that in female and age ≥ 65-year-old group. There has no consistent pattern of associations in city-level with sex and age. The high temperature has a greater impact on suicide in south region compared with north region. We found the positive association between ambient temperature and suicide in China.

The trend in mortality due to suicide in urban and rural areas of Colombia, 1979-2014

Introduction: Suicide is a serious social and public health problem that affects the population in most countries in the world. Differences in suicide rates in rural and urban areas have been previously described. Objective: To study the trend of mortality rates by suicide in Colombia, in rural and urban areas by gender, age group, and suicide method during the years 1979-2014. Materials and methods: We conducted a temporal trend ecologic study using death certificates from the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, DANE. Specific and adjusted by age and gender mortality rates were calculated. We estimated negative binomial and inflection point regression models to study the trends in mortality rates stratified by gender, age group, and suicide method. Results: A total of 56,448 suicides was reported in Colombia between 1979 and 2014. The risk of suicide was higher in urban areas for men, individuals between 25 and 44 years, and 65 and over; and for those who used hanging as the suicide method. Also, the risk of suicide was higher in the rural area for men between 45 and 64 years old, and those who used firearms, sharp weapons, hanging, and others as suicide methods. The trend of suicide rates in urban areas showed its maximum peak in 1999 and in the rural ones in 2000. Then, in the two areas, there was a gradual decrease. Hanging in both areas presented a tendency to rise in men. Conclusions: Suicide has shown a tendency toward reduction after the year 2000, with differences between urban and rural areas.

Geographical Patterns in Drug-Related Mortality and Suicide: Investigating Commonalities in English Small Areas

There are increasing concerns regarding upward trends in drug-related deaths in a number of developed societies. In some countries, these have been paralleled by upward trends in suicide. Of frequent concern to public health policy are local variations in these outcomes, and the factors underlying them. In this paper, we consider the geographic pattern of drug-related deaths and suicide for 2012-2016 across 6791 small areas in England. The aim is to establish the extent of commonalities in area risk factors between the two outcomes, with a particular focus on impacts of deprivation, fragmentation and rurality.

The role of seasonality and photoperiod on the lethality of suicide attempts: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

The risk factors related to suicidal behaviors are complex and not yet fully known. Several studies underline how suicide results from the combination of psycho-social, biological, cultural, and environmental factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential role of seasonality and photoperiod on high-lethality suicide attempts (HLSA) compared with low-lethality suicide attempts (LLSA) in a sample of psychiatric inpatients.

METHODS

After attempting suicide, subjects were admitted in the emergency/psychiatric ward of the IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino from 1st August 2013 to 31st July 2018. Socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were collected.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of four hundred thirty-two individuals admitted for suicide attempt. One hundred thirty-three subjects (30.8%) of the sample committed a HLSA. The HLSA group peaked in the months with a higher sunlight exposure (June and July). Bivariate correlation analyses between seasonality/photoperiod in the whole sample and HLSA were positively associated with summer and highest solar intensity period.

LIMITATIONS

Data were limited to a single hospital, patients' seasonal environment, meteorological variables and psychological factors. In addition, the presence of acute life-events fostering the suicidal crisis has not been investigated.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study provides a novel perspective on the questions surrounding the impact of seasonality and daylight exposure on lethality of suicide attempts. further studies are needed to provide deeper understandings on the delicate molecular network that links suicide behaviors, seasonality and daylight in order to develop more effective prevention and treatment strategies in the future.

Ambient temperature, sunlight duration, and suicide: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between sunlight hours, temperature, and suicide has been investigated in many previous studies, but with inconsistent findings. We conducted this meta-analysis aiming at providing clear evidence about whether sunlight hours and temperature can affect the risk of suicide.

METHODS

Relevant literature published before 7 Jul 2018 was searched in three electronic database of PubMed, Web of science and Cochrane. Between-study heterogeneity in the effect estimates were examined by study design (i.e., exposure time resolution, temperature measure and suicide classification) and population vulnerability (i.e., sex, national income level, climate zone and study location).

RESULTS

Regarding temperature-suicide association, we identified 14 studies that provided 23 effect estimates for meta-analysis. Our random-effects model showed that each 1 °C increase in temperature was significantly associated with a 1% increase in the incidence of suicide (Incidence Rate Radio (IRR) = 1.01; 95%CI = 1.00-1.02; p < 0.05). As for sunlight duration and suicide, 11 effect estimates from 4 studies were pooled using a fixed-effects model. Significant association between sunlight duration (per 1 h increase) and the risk of suicide was not observed, and the pooled IRR was 1.00 (95%CI = 0.99-1.01; p > 0.05). There was significant heterogeneity between previous studies' effect estimates, and significantly lower heterogeneity was noted for the female group, for studies that did analyses at daily scale, and for studies using mean temperature as the exposure indicator.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest a significant and positive association between temperature rises and incidence of suicide, and a non-significant association between sunlight duration and incidence of suicide. Populations living in tropical and temperate zones or at middle-income level may be particularly vulnerable to temperature increase.

The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the health dimensions of the impacts of, and the response to, climate change. The Lancet Countdown tracks 41 indicators across five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; finance and economics; and public and political engagement.

This report is the product of a collaboration of 27 leading academic institutions, the UN, and intergovernmental agencies from every continent. The report draws on world-class expertise from climate scientists, ecologists, mathematicians, geographers, engineers, energy, food, livestock, and transport experts, economists, social and political scientists, public health professionals, and doctors.

The Lancet Countdown’s work builds on decades of research in this field, and was first proposed in the 2015 Lancet Commission on health and climate change,1 which documented the human impacts of climate change and provided ten global recommendations to respond to this public health emergency and secure the public health benefits available (panel 1 ).

Spatial analysis of the relative risk of suicide for Virginia counties incorporating uncertainty of variable estimates

PURPOSE

This research aimed to identify significantly elevated areas of risk for suicide in Virginia adjusting for risk factors and risk factor uncertainty.

METHODS

We fit three Bayesian hierarchical spatial models for relative risk of suicide adjusting for risk factors and considering different random effects. We compared models with and without incorporating parameter estimates' margin of error (MOE) from the American Community Survey and identified counties with significantly elevated risk and highly significantly elevated risk for suicide.

RESULTS

Incorporating MOEs and using a mixing parameter between unstructured and spatially structured random effects achieved the best model fit. Fifty-two counties had significantly elevated risk and 18 had highly significantly elevated risk of suicide. Models without MOEs underestimated relative risk and over-identified counties with elevated risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Accounting for uncertainty in parameter estimates achieved better model fit. Efficient allocation of resources for suicide prevention can be attained by targeting clusters of counties with elevated risk.

What calls for service tell us about suicide: A 7-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood correlates of suicide-related calls

Previous research has shown that neighborhood-level variables such as social deprivation, social fragmentation or rurality are related to suicide risk, but most of these studies have been conducted in the U.S. or northern European countries. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of suicide in a southern European city (Valencia, Spain), and determine whether this distribution was related to a set of neighborhood-level characteristics. We used suicide-related calls for service as an indicator of suicide cases (n = 6,537), and analyzed the relationship of the outcome variable with several neighborhood-level variables: economic status, education level, population density, residential instability, one-person households, immigrant concentration, and population aging. A Bayesian autoregressive model was used to study the spatio-temporal distribution at the census block group level for a 7-year period (2010–2016). Results showed that neighborhoods with lower levels of education and population density, and higher levels of residential instability, one-person households, and an aging population had higher levels of suicide-related calls for service. Immigrant concentration and economic status did not make a relevant contribution to the model. These results could help to develop better-targeted community-level suicide prevention strategies.

How Socio-Environmental Factors Are Associated with Japanese Encephalitis in Shaanxi, China-A Bayesian Spatial Analysis

Evidence indicated that socio-environmental factors were associated with occurrence of Japanese encephalitis (JE). This study explored the association of climate and socioeconomic factors with JE (2006–2014) in Shaanxi, China. JE data at the county level in Shaanxi were supplied by Shaanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Population and socioeconomic data were obtained from the China Population Census in 2010 and statistical yearbooks. Meteorological data were acquired from the China Meteorological Administration. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive model was used to examine the association of meteorological and socioeconomic factors with JE. A total of 1197 JE cases were included in this study. Urbanization rate was inversely associated with JE incidence during the whole study period. Meteorological variables were significantly associated with JE incidence between 2012 and 2014. The excessive precipitation at lag of 1–2 months in the north of Shaanxi in June 2013 had an impact on the increase of local JE incidence. The spatial residual variations indicated that the whole study area had more stable risk (0.80–1.19 across all the counties) between 2012 and 2014 than earlier years. Public health interventions need to be implemented to reduce JE incidence, especially in rural areas and after extreme weather.

Spatial clustering of fatal, and non-fatal, suicide in new South Wales, Australia: implications for evidence-based prevention

BACKGROUND

Rates of suicide appear to be increasing, indicating a critical need for more effective prevention initiatives. To increase the efficacy of future prevention initiatives, we examined the spatial distribution of suicide deaths and suicide attempts in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to identify where high incidence 'suicide clusters' were occurring. Such clusters represent candidate regions where intervention is critically needed, and likely to have the greatest impact, thus providing an evidence-base for the targeted prioritisation of resources.

METHODS

Analysis is based on official suicide mortality statistics for NSW, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and hospital separations for non-fatal intentional self-harm, provided through the NSW Health Admitted Patient Data Collection at a Statistical Area 2 (SA2) geography. Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques were applied to detect suicide clusters occurring between 2005 and 2013 (aggregated), for persons aged over 5 years. The final dataset contained 5466 mortality and 86,017 non-fatal intentional self-harm cases.

RESULTS

In total, 25 Local Government Areas were identified as primary or secondary likely candidate regions for intervention. Together, these regions contained approximately 200 SA2 level suicide clusters, which represented 46% (n = 39,869) of hospital separations and 43% (n = 2330) of suicide deaths between 2005 and 2013. These clusters primarily converged on the Eastern coastal fringe of NSW.

CONCLUSIONS

Crude rates of suicide deaths and intentional self-harm differed at the Local Government Areas (LGA) level in NSW. There was a tendency for primary suicide clusters to occur within metropolitan and coastal regions, rather than rural areas. The findings demonstrate the importance of taking geographical variation of suicidal behaviour into account, prior to development and implementation of prevention initiatives, so that such initiatives can target key problem areas where they are likely to have maximal impact.

Spatiotemporal Suicide Risk in Germany: A Longitudinal Study 2007-11

Despite comprehensive prevention programs in Germany, suicide has been on the rise again since 2007. The underlying reasons and spatiotemporal risk patterns are poorly understood. We assessed the spatiotemporal risk of suicide per district attributable to multiple risk and protective factors longitudinally for the period 2007–11. Bayesian space–time regression models were fitted. The nationwide temporal trend showed an increase in relative risk (RR) of dying from suicide (RR 1.008, 95% credibility intervals (CI) 1.001–1.016), whereas district-specific deviations from the grand trend occurred. Striking patterns of amplified risk emerged in southern Germany. While the number of general practitioners was positively related (RR 1.003, 95% CI 1.000–1.006), income was negatively and non-linearly related with suicide risk, as was population density. Unemployment was associated and showed a marked nonlinearity. Neither depression prevalence nor mental health service supply were related. The findings are vital for the implementation of future suicide prevention programs. Concentrating preventive efforts on vulnerable areas of excess risk is recommended.

Spatial variability of excess mortality during prolonged dust events in a high-density city: a time-stratified spatial regression approach

BACKGROUND

Dust events have long been recognized to be associated with a higher mortality risk. However, no study has investigated how prolonged dust events affect the spatial variability of mortality across districts in a downwind city.

METHODS

In this study, we applied a spatial regression approach to estimate the district-level mortality during two extreme dust events in Hong Kong. We compared spatial and non-spatial models to evaluate the ability of each regression to estimate mortality. We also compared prolonged dust events with non-dust events to determine the influences of community factors on mortality across the city.

RESULTS

The density of a built environment (estimated by the sky view factor) had positive association with excess mortality in each district, while socioeconomic deprivation contributed by lower income and lower education induced higher mortality impact in each territory planning unit during a prolonged dust event. Based on the model comparison, spatial error modelling with the 1st order of queen contiguity consistently outperformed other models. The high-risk areas with higher increase in mortality were located in an urban high-density environment with higher socioeconomic deprivation.

CONCLUSION

Our model design shows the ability to predict spatial variability of mortality risk during an extreme weather event that is not able to be estimated based on traditional time-series analysis or ecological studies. Our spatial protocol can be used for public health surveillance, sustainable planning and disaster preparation when relevant data are available.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Suicide-Related Emergency Calls

Considerable effort has been devoted to incorporate temporal trends in disease mapping. In this line, this work describes the importance of including the effect of the seasonality in a particular setting related with suicides. In particular, the number of suicide-related emergency calls is modeled by means of an autoregressive approach to spatio-temporal disease mapping that allows for incorporating the possible interaction between both temporal and spatial effects. Results show the importance of including seasonality effect, as there are differences between the number of suicide-related emergency calls between the four seasons of each year.

A spatio-temporal analysis of suicide in El Salvador

Background

In 2012, international statistics showed El Salvador’s suicide rate as 40th in the world and the highest in Latin America. Over the last 15 years, national statistics show the suicide death rate declining as opposed to an increasing rate of homicide. Though completed suicide is an important social and health issue, little is known about its prevalence, incidence, etiology and spatio-temporal behavior. The primary objective of this study was to examine completed suicide and homicide using the stream analogy to lethal violence within a spatio-temporal framework.

Methods

A Bayesian model was applied to examine the spatio-temporal evolution of the tendency of completed suicide over homicide in El Salvador. Data on numbers of suicides and homicides at the municipal level were obtained from the Instituto de Medicina Legal (IML) and population counts, from the Dirección General de Estadística y Censos (DIGESTYC), for the period of 2002 to 2012. Data on migration were derived from the 2007 Population Census, and inequality data were obtained from a study by Damianović, Valenzuela and Vera.

Results

The data reveal a stable standardized rate of total lethal violence (completed suicide plus homicide) across municipalities over time; a decline in suicide; and a standardized suicide rate decreasing with income inequality but increasing with social isolation. Municipalities clustered in terms of both total lethal violence and suicide standardized rates.

Conclusions

Spatial effects for suicide were stronger among municipalities located in the north-east and center-south sides of the country. New clusters of municipalities with large suicide standardized rates were detected in the north-west, south-west and center-south regions, all of which are part of time-stable clusters of homicide. Prevention efforts to reduce income inequality and mitigate the negative effects of weak relational systems should focus upon municipalities forming time-persistent clusters with a large rate of death by suicide. In municipalities that are part of newly-formed suicide clusters and also are located in areas with a large rate of homicide, interrupting the expansion of spatial concentrations of suicide over time may require the implementation of both public health and public safety interventions.

Climate change but not unemployment explains the changing suicidality in Thessaloniki Greece (2000-2012)

INTRODUCTION

Recently there was a debate concerning the etiology behind attempts and completed suicides. The aim of the current study was to search for possible correlations between the rates of attempted and completed suicide and climate variables and regional unemployment per year in the county of Thessaloniki, Macedonia, northern Greece, for the years 2000-12.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The regional rates of suicide and attempted suicide as well as regional unemployment were available from previous publications of the authors. The climate variables were calculated from the daily E-OBS gridded dataset which is based on observational data

RESULTS

Only the male suicide rates correlate significantly with high mean annual temperature but not with unemployment. The multiple linear regression analysis results suggest that temperature is the only variable that determines male suicides and explains 51% of their variance. Unemployment fails to contribute significantly to the model. There seems to be a seasonal distribution for attempts with mean rates being higher for the period from May to October and the rates clearly correlate with temperature. The highest mean rates were observed during May and August and the lowest during December and February. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that temperature also determines the female attempts rate although the explained variable is significant but very low (3-5%)

CONCLUSION

Climate variables and specifically high temperature correlate both with suicide and attempted suicide rates but with a different way between males and females. The climate effect was stronger than the effect of unemployment.

Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012

BACKGROUND

It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate.

METHODS

Data from 29 European countries covering the years 2000-2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression.

RESULTS

The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high inflation and low GDP per capita, while female suicides correlated negatively with inflation. Both male and female suicides correlated with low temperature.

DISCUSSION

The current study reports that the climatic effect (cold climate) is stronger than the economic one, but both are present. It seems that in Europe suicidality follows the climate/temperature cline which interestingly is not from south to north but from south to north-east. This raises concerns that climate change could lead to an increase in suicide rates. The current study is essentially the first successful attempt to explain the differences across countries in Europe; however, it is an observational analysis based on aggregate data and thus there is a lack of control for confounders.

Associations between climate variability, unemployment and suicide in Australia: a multicity study

BACKGROUND

A number of studies have examined the associations of suicide with meteorological variables (MVs) and socioeconomic status but the results are inconsistent. This study assessed whether MVs and unemployment were associated with suicide in eight Australian capital cities.

METHODS

Data on suicide, population and unemployment rate (UER) between 1985 and 2005 were from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. MVs was provided by Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A generalized linear regression model with Poisson link was applied to explore the association of suicide with MVs and UER.

RESULTS

Temperature difference (ΔT, the difference in mean temperature between current month and previous one month) was positively associated with suicide in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Hobart. There was also a significant and positive association between UER and suicide in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. MVs had more significant associations with violent suicide than that of non-violent suicide. There were no consistent associations between other MVs and suicide. A significant interaction between ΔT and UER on suicide was found in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, such that increased temperature amplified the magnitude of the association between UER and suicide.

CONCLUSIONS

ΔT and UER appeared to jointly influence the occurrence of suicide in Australian capital cities. This finding may have implications for developing effective suicide prevention strategies.