Ten-year fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction incidence in elderly populations in Spain: the EPICARDIAN cohort study

Prognostic value of cardiac magnetic resonance early after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in older patients

BACKGROUND

older patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) represent a very high-risk population. Data on the prognostic value of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in this scenario are scarce.

METHODS

the registry comprised 247 STEMI patients over 70 years of age treated with percutaneous intervention and included in a multicenter registry. Baseline characteristics, echocardiographic parameters and CMR-derived left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, %), infarct size (% of left ventricular mass) and microvascular obstruction (MVO, number of segments) were prospectively collected. The additional prognostic power of CMR was assessed using adjusted C-statistic, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI).

RESULTS

during a 4.8-year mean follow-up, the number of first major adverse cardiac events (MACE) was 66 (26.7%): 27 all-cause deaths and 39 re-admissions for acute heart failure. Predictors of MACE were GRACE score (HR 1.03 [1.02-1.04], P < 0.001), CMR-LVEF (HR 0.97 [0.95-0.99] per percent increase, P = 0.006) and MVO (HR 1.24 [1.09-1.4] per segment, P = 0.001). Adding CMR data significantly improved MACE prediction compared to the model with baseline and echocardiographic characteristics (C-statistic 0.759 [0.694-0.824] vs. 0.685 [0.613-0.756], NRI = 0.6, IDI = 0.08, P < 0.001). The best cut-offs for independent variables were GRACE score > 155, LVEF < 40% and MVO ≥ 2 segments. A simple score (0, 1, 2, 3) based on the number of altered factors accurately predicted the MACE per 100 person-years: 0.78, 5.53, 11.51 and 78.79, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

CMR data contribute valuable prognostic information in older patients submitted to undergo CMR soon after STEMI. The Older-STEMI-CMR score should be externally validated.

Cardiovascular risk in the elderly population of Spain. The EPICARDIAN risk score

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular risk estimation in people over 70 years of age is problematic. Most scores have been created based on cohorts of middle-aged people, with an underrepresentation of older adults. The predictive power of classical cardiovascular risk factors declines with age. The aim of this work is to develop a specific score for estimating cardiovascular risk among the elderly population in Spain.

METHODS

This work is a population-based cohort established in 1995.

SETTING

Three geographical areas of Spain (Madrid, Ávila, and Lugo).

PARTICIPANTS

3,729 people older than 64 years with no cardiovascular diseases (CVD) at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

Suspected fatal and nonfatal CVD (both coronary heart disease and stroke) were investigated annually and confirmed using the WHO-MONICA criteria. All participants were followed-up on until occurrence of a first CVD event, until death, or until December 31, 2015.

RESULTS

Age was the strongest predictor of CVD at 10 years in both men and women. In men, variables associated with CVD were high blood pressure treatment (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.067-1.710), diabetes (HR: 1.359; 95% CI: 0.997-1.852), and smoking (HR: 1.207; 95% CI: 0.945-1.541) and in women, the variables were smoking (HR: 1.881; 95% CI: 1.356-2.609) and diabetes (HR: 1.285; 95% CI: 0.967-1.707). Total cholesterol did not increase the risk of CVD in men or women. However, total cholesterol levels >200 mg/dL were inversely associated with 10-year risk of CVD in men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly Spanish men, total CVD at 10 years is significantly increased by age, diabetes, and antihypertensive treatment and in elderly Spanish women by diabetes and smoking. Total cholesterol levels did not increase the risk of CVD, particularly in males.

Baseline CHA2 DS2 -VASc score and prognosis in octogenarians with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND

CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc Score is widely used to predict thromboembolic risk in patients with Atrial Fibrillation (AF). We sought to study if this score predicts outcomes in elderly patients with Non-ST segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndromes (NSTEACS).

METHODS

The multicenter LONGEVO-SCA prospective registry included 532 unselected patients with NSTEACS aged ≥80 years. Data to calculate CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc Score were available in 523 patients (98.3%). They were classified according to CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc Score: group 1 (score ≤ 4), and 2 (5-9). We studied outcomes in terms of mortality or readmission at 6 months follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 266 patients (51%) had a high CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc Score (group 2). They were more often women, with more cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension or diabetes mellitus, and history of previous stroke and cardiovascular disease and heart failure (all, P = .001). Geriatric syndromes (Barthel Index, Lawton Brody, cognitive impairment, and frailty) and Charlson Index were worse in this group (all, P = .001). They had poorer clinical status on admission, with worse Killip class and lower left ventricle ejection fraction (all, P = .001), and developed new-onset AF more often during admission (12.4% vs. 6.6%, P = .024). At six months follow-up, patients in group 2 had higher reinfarction, all-cause mortality, and mortality or readmission rates. A CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc Score > 4 was associated with mortality or readmission at 6 months (HR 2.07, P < .001). However, after adjusting for potential confounders, this last association was not significant (P = .175).

CONCLUSIONS

A CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc Score > 4 is present in half of octogenarians with NSTEACS and is associated with poorer outcomes. However, it is not an independent predictor of events and should not replace recommended tools for risk prediction in this setting.

Incidence and mortality of myocardial infarction among Catalonian older adults with and without underlying risk conditions: The CAPAMIS study

BACKGROUND

Population-based data about the epidemiology of acute myocardial infarction is limited. This study investigated incidence and mortality of acute myocardial infarction in older adults with specific underlying chronic conditions and evaluated the influence of these conditions in developing acute myocardial infarction.

DESIGN AND METHODS

This was a population-based cohort study involving 27,204 individuals ≥ 60 years of age in Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain). Data on all cases of hospitalised acute myocardial infarction were collected from 1 December 2008-30 November 2011. Incidence rates and 30-day mortality were estimated according to age, sex, chronic illnesses and underlying conditions. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios and to estimate the association between baseline conditions and risk of developing acute myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

The incidence of acute myocardial infarction was 475 per 100,000 person-years. Maximum rates appeared among individuals with history of coronary artery disease (2839 per 100,000), chronic severe nephropathy (1407 per 100,000), atrial fibrillation (1226 per 100,000), chronic heart disease (1149 per 100,000), history of stroke (1147 per 100,000) and diabetes mellitus (914 per 100,000). Thirty-day mortality was 15.3% overall, reaching 31.6% among patients over 80 years. In the multivariable analysis, history of coronary artery disease, age > 70 years, sex male, chronic heart disease, history of stroke, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus and hypertension emerged as significantly associated with an increased risk of acute myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and mortality of acute myocardial infarction remain considerable in our setting. Considering classical major risk factors, diabetes mellitus and hypertension were the underlying conditions most strongly associated with an increased risk in our study population.

Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk - Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

AIMS

Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93-1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89-1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07-1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05-1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05-1.20) in group C.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

An Easy Assessment of Frailty at Baseline Independently Predicts Prognosis in Very Elderly Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes

BACKGROUND

Information about the impact of frailty in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) is scarce. No study has assessed the prognostic impact of frailty as measured by the FRAIL scale in very elderly patients with ACS.

METHODS

The prospective multicenter LONGEVO-SCA registry included unselected patients with ACS aged 80 years or older. A comprehensive geriatric assessment was performed during hospitalization, including frailty assessment by the FRAIL scale. The primary endpoint was mortality at 6 months.

RESULTS

A total of 532 patients were included. Mean age was 84.3 years, 61.7% male. Most patients had positive troponin levels (84%) and high GRACE risk score values (mean 165). A total of 205 patients were classified as prefrail (38.5%) and 145 as frail (27.3%). Frail and prefrail patients had a higher prevalence of comorbidities, lower left ventricle ejection fraction, and higher mean GRACE score value. A total of 63 patients (11.8%) were dead at 6 months. Both prefrailty and frailty were associated with higher 6-month mortality rates (P < .001). After adjusting for potential confounders, this association remained significant (hazard ratio [HR] 2.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-6.73 for prefrailty and HR 2.99; 95% CI 1.20-7.44 for frailty, P = .024). The other independent predictors of mortality were age, Charlson Index, and GRACE risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

The FRAIL scale is a simple tool that independently predicts mortality in unselected very elderly patients with ACS. The presence of prefrailty criteria also should be taken into account when performing risk stratification of these patients.

Management of myocardial infarction in the elderly. Insights from Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set

Background:

We aimed to assess the impact of implementation of reperfusion networks, the type of hospital and specialty of the treating physician on the management and outcomes of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction in patients aged ⩾75 years.

Methods:

We analysed data from the Minimum Basic Data Set of the Spanish public health system, assessing hospital discharges between 2004 and 2013. Discharges were distributed in three groups depending on the clinical management: percutaneous coronary intervention, thrombolysis or no reperfusion. Primary outcome measure was all cause in-hospital mortality. For risk adjustment, patient comorbidities were identified for each index hospitalization.

Results:

We identified 299,929 discharges, of whom 107,890 (36%) were in-patients aged ⩾75 years. Older patients had higher prevalence of comorbidities, were less often treated in high complexity hospitals and were less frequently managed by cardiologists ( p<0.001). Both percutaneous coronary intervention and fibrinolysis were less often performed in elderly patients ( p<0.001). A progressive increase in the rate of percutaneous coronary intervention was observed in the elderly across the study period (from 17% in 2004 to 45% in 2013, p<0.001), with a progressive reduction of crude mortality (from 23% in 2004 to 19% in 2013, p<0.001). Adjusted analysis showed an association between being treated in high complexity hospitals, being treated by cardiologists and lower in-hospital mortality ( p <0.001).

Conclusions:

Elderly patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction are less often managed in high complexity hospitals and less often treated by cardiologists. Both factors are associated with higher in-hospital mortality.

Impact of Frailty and Other Geriatric Syndromes on Clinical Management and Outcomes in Elderly Patients With Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndromes: Rationale and Design of the LONGEVO-SCA Registry

The incidence of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) is high in the elderly. Despite a high prevalence of frailty and other aging-related variables, little information exists about the optimal clinical management in patients with coexisting geriatric syndromes. The aim of the LONGEVO-SCA registry (Impacto de la Fragilidad y Otros Síndromes Geriátricos en el Manejo y Pronóstico Vital del Anciano con Síndrome Coronario Agudo sin Elevación de Segmento ST) is to assess the impact of aging-related variables on clinical management, prognosis, and functional status in elderly patients with ACS. A series of 500 consecutive octogenarian patients with non-ST-segment elevation ACS from 57 centers in Spain will be included. A comprehensive geriatric assessment will be performed during the admission, assessing functional status (Barthel Index, Lawton-Brody Index), frailty (FRAIL scale, Short Physical Performance Battery), comorbidity (Charlson Index), nutritional status (Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form), and quality of life (Seattle Angina Questionnaire). Patients will be managed according to current recommendations. The primary outcome will be the description of mortality and its causes at 6 months. Secondary outcomes will be changes in functional status and quality of life. Results from this study might significantly improve the knowledge about the impact of aging-related variables on management and outcomes of elderly patients with ACS. Clinical management of these patients has become a major health care problem due to the growing incidence of ACS in the elderly and its particularities.

Carotid intima-media thickness progression and risk of vascular events in people with diabetes: results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

OBJECTIVE

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of subclinical organ damage and predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in the general population. It has also been associated with vascular risk in people with diabetes. However, the association of CIMT change in repeated examinations with subsequent CVD events is uncertain, and its use as a surrogate end point in clinical trials is controversial. We aimed at determining the relation of CIMT change to CVD events in people with diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In a comprehensive meta-analysis of individual participant data, we collated data from 3,902 adults (age 33-92 years) with type 2 diabetes from 21 population-based cohorts. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) difference in mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) or in CCA-IMT progression, both calculated from two examinations on average 3.6 years apart, for each cohort, and combined the estimates with random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Average mean CCA-IMT ranged from 0.72 to 0.97 mm across cohorts in people with diabetes. The HR of CVD events was 1.22 (95% CI 1.12-1.33) per SD difference in mean CCA-IMT, after adjustment for age, sex, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Average mean CCA-IMT progression in people with diabetes ranged between -0.09 and 0.04 mm/year. The HR per SD difference in mean CCA-IMT progression was 0.99 (0.91-1.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite reproducing the association between CIMT level and vascular risk in subjects with diabetes, we did not find an association between CIMT change and vascular risk. These results do not support the use of CIMT progression as a surrogate end point in clinical trials in people with diabetes.

Symptomatic Atherosclerotic Disease and Decreased Risk of Cancer-Specific Mortality: A Prospective, Population-Based Study (NEDICES)

The few studies that have assessed the association between symptomatic atherosclerotic disease and risk of cancer have had conflicting results. In addition, these studies ascertained participants either from treatment settings (ie, service-based studies) or by using a records linkage system (ie, medical records of patients evaluated at clinics or hospitals) and, therefore, were prone to selection bias. Our purpose was to estimate the risk of cancer mortality in a large population-based sample of elderly people, comparing participants with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (atherosclerotic stroke and coronary disease) to their counterparts without symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (ie, controls) in the same population.In this population-based, prospective study (Neurological Disorders of Central Spain, NEDICES), 5262 elderly community-dwelling participants with and without symptomatic atherosclerotic disease were identified and followed for a median of 12.1 years, after which the death certificates of those who died were reviewed.A total of 2701 (53.3%) of 5262 participants died, including 314 (68.6%) of 458 participants with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease and 2387 (49.7%) of 4804 controls. Cancer mortality was reported significantly less often in those with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (15.6%) than in controls (25.6%) (P < 0.001). In an unadjusted Cox model, risk of cancer-specific mortality was decreased in participants with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (HR = 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.98, P = 0.04) vs. those without symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (reference group). In an adjusted Cox model, HR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.38-0.89; P = 0.01.This population-based, prospective study suggests that there is an inverse association between symptomatic atherosclerotic disease and risk of cancer mortality.

Disability-adjusted Life Years Lost to Ischemic Heart Disease in Spain

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The health indicator disability-adjusted life years combines the fatal and nonfatal consequences of a disease in a single measure. The aim of this study was to evaluate the burden of ischemic heart disease in 2008 in Spain by calculating disability-adjusted life years.

METHODS

The years of life lost due to premature death were calculated using the ischemic heart disease deaths by age and sex recorded in the Spanish National Institute of Statistics and the life-table in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study. The years lived with disability, calculated for acute coronary syndrome, stable angina, and ischemic heart failure, used hospital discharge data and information from population studies. Disability weights were taken from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study. We calculated crude and age standardized rates (European Standard Population). Univariate sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

In 2008, 539 570 disability-adjusted life years were lost due to ischemic heart disease in Spain (crude rate, 11.8/1000 population; standardized, 8.6/1000). Of the total years lost, 96% were due to premature death and 4% due to disability. Among the years lost due to disability, heart failure accounted for 83%, stable angina 15%, and acute coronary syndrome 2%. In the sensitivity analysis, weighting by age was the factor that changed the results to the greatest degree.

CONCLUSIONS

Ischemic heart disease continues to have a huge impact on the health of our population, mainly because of premature death. The results of this study provide an overall vision of the epidemiologic situation in Spain and could serve as the basis for evaluating interventions targeting the acute and chronic manifestations of cardiac ischemia.

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population.

METHODS

Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk.

RESULTS

Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain.

Impact of frailty and functional status on outcomes in elderly patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary angioplasty: rationale and design of the IFFANIAM study

The IFFANIAM study (Impact of frailty and functional status in elderly patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary angioplasty) is an observational multicenter registry to assess the impact of frailty and functional status on outcomes of elderly patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary angioplasty. STEMI patients age 75 years or older undergoing primary angioplasty will be extensively studied during admission in 4 tertiary care Hospitals in Spain, assessing their baseline functional status (Barthel index, Lawton-Brody index), frailty (Fried criteria, FRAIL scale [fatigue, resistance, ambulation, illnesses, and loss of weight]), comorbidities (Charlson index), nutritional status (Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form), and quality of life (Seattle Angina Questionnaire). Participants will be managed according current recommendations. The primary outcome will be the description of 1-year mortality, its causes, and associated factors. Secondary outcomes will be functional capacity and quality of life. Results will help to better understand the impact of frailty and functional ability on outcomes in elderly STEMI patients undergoing primary angioplasty, thus potentially contributing to improving their clinical management. Higher life expectancy has resulted in a large segment of elderly population and an increase in myocardial infarction in these patients. This calls attention to healthcare systems to focus on promoting methods to improve the clinical management of this population.

Arterial thromboembolic events in patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration treated with intravitreal bevacizumab or ranibizumab

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To compare retrospectively the incidence of arterial thromboembolic events (ATEs) in patients treated with bevacizumab or ranibizumab for exudative age-related macular degeneration.

METHODS

Charts of 378 patients treated with at least 1 intravitreal injection of ranibizumab or bevacizumab were reviewed to calculate the incidence of ATEs. Only patients under monotherapy were analyzed.

RESULTS

ATEs occurred in 15 patients: 12 (12/97) with bevacizumab (12.4%) and 3 (3/219) with ranibizumab (1.4%) - odds ratio 10.16; 95% confidence interval 2.80-36.93; p < 0.0001. ATEs in the bevacizumab and ranibizumab cohorts included stroke, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, peripheral thromboembolic disease, transient ischemic attack, sudden death and lethal stroke.

CONCLUSION

In this series, bevacizumab raised the risk of ATEs when compared to ranibizumab. In an elderly population with multiple cardiovascular risk factors, the new ATEs may not be attributed exclusively to the intravitreal bevacizumab administration. These findings raise an issue that must be confirmed in randomized clinical trials.

The effect of survival bias on case-control genetic association studies of highly lethal diseases

BACKGROUND

Survival bias is the phenomenon by which individuals are excluded from analysis of a trait because of mortality related to the expression of that trait. In genetic association studies, variants increasing risk for disease onset as well as risk of disease-related mortality (lethality) could be difficult to detect in genetic association case-control designs, possibly leading to underestimation of a variant's effect on disease risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We modeled cohorts for 3 diseases of high lethality (intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction) using existing longitudinal data. Based on these models, we simulated case-control genetic association studies for genetic risk factors of varying effect sizes, lethality, and minor allele frequencies. For each disease, erosion of detected effect size was larger for case-control studies of individuals of advanced age (age >75 years) and/or variants with very high event-associated lethality (genotype relative risk for event-related death >2.0). We found that survival bias results in no more than 20% effect size erosion for cohorts with mean age <75 years, even for variants that double lethality risk. Furthermore, we found that increasing effect size erosion was accompanied by depletion of minor allele frequencies in the case population, yielding a "signature" of the presence of survival bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Our simulation provides formulas to allow estimation of effect size erosion given a variant's odds ratio of disease, odds ratio of lethality, and minor allele frequencies. These formulas will add precision to power calculation and replication efforts for case-control genetic studies. Our approach requires validation using prospective data.