Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure in a metropolitan health region

Predicting environmental risks of pharmaceutical residues by wastewater surveillance: An analysis based on pharmaceutical sales and their excretion data

Pharmaceutical residues are increasingly becoming a significant source of environmental water pollution and ecological risk. This study, leveraging official national pharmaceutical sales statistics, predicts the environmental concentrations of 33 typical pharmaceuticals in the Tianjin area. The results show that 52 % of the drugs have a PEC/MEC (Predicted Environmental Concentration/Measured Environmental Concentration) ratio within the acceptable range of 0.5-2, including atenolol (1.21), carbamazepine (1.22), and sulfamethoxazole (0.91). Among the selected drugs, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, and acetaminophen had the highest predicted concentrations. The EPI (Estimation Programs Interface) biodegradation model, a tool from the US Environmental Protection Agency, is used to predict the removal efficiency of compounds in wastewater treatment plants. The results indicate that the EPI predictions are acceptable for macrolide antibiotics and β-blockers, with removal rates of roxithromycin, spiramycin, acetaminophen, and carbamazepine being 14.1 %, 61.2 %, 75.1 %, and 44.5 %, respectively. However, the model proved to be less effective for fluoroquinolone antibiotics. The ECOSAR (Ecological Structure-Activity Relationships) model was used to supplement the assessment of the potential impacts of drugs on aquatic ecosystems, further refining the analysis of pharmaceutical environmental risks. By combining the concentration and detection frequency of pharmaceutical wastewater, this study identified 9 drugs with significant toxicological risks and marked another 24 drugs as substances of potential concern. Additionally, this study provides data support for addressing pharmaceutical residues of priority concern in subsequent research.

Adoption of new therapies in the treatment of Hepatitis: a verification of the accuracy of budget impact analysis to guide investment decisions

OBJECTIVES

While there are good Budget Impact Analysis (BIA) guidelines, studies still register potential bias. To do this, we compared the results between theoretical and real-world evidence (RWE) expenditures for medicines for Hepatitis C: boceprevir (BOC) and telaprevir (TVR). While both are not currently recommended in treatment guidelines following recent developments, this is an emblematic case because for 4 years these medicines consumed considerable resources.

METHODS

Theoretical results and RWE expenditures were compared regarding the incorporation of BOC and TVR in 2013-2014 into the Brazilian Public Health System. Theoretical values were extracted from Commission for Technology Incorporation Report and RWE expenditures were extracted from the administrative data records using deterministic-probabilistic linkage.

RESULTS

The estimated number of patients treated (BOC+TVR) was 13,012 versus 7,641 (real). The estimated purchase price for BOC was US$6.20 versus US$11.07 (real) and for TVR was US$42.21 versus US$84.09 (average/real). The estimated budget impact was US$285.16 million versus US$128.58 million (real).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates appreciable divergence (US$156.58 million) between the theoretical budget impact and RWE expenditures due to underestimated purchase prices and overestimated populations. The greater the degree of accuracy the more reliable and usable BIAs become for decision-making.

The Impact of a National Stewardship Policy on the Usage Patterns of Key Monitoring Drugs in a Tertiary Teaching Hospital: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background: The management of Key Monitoring Drugs has become one of important aspects to control the growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in China. The first batch of the China National Key Monitoring Drugs (NKMDs) policy was released in July 2019. However, little is known about the impact of the national stewardship on the trends of NKMDs prescribing practice in hospitals, especially in the Northwestern China.

Methods: We collected 8-years of monthly NKMDs usage data from a tertiary hospital between 2014 and 2021. A segmented regression model of interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was used to evaluate the Defined Daily Doses (DDDs) and spending trends of ten NMKDs in the hospital throughout the study period. The pre-implementation period was from January 2014 to November 2019 and the post-implementation period was from December 2019 to June 2021.

Results: Prior to the implementation of the NKMDs policy, there was an increasing trend both in DDDs and spending for 8 of 10 NKMDs. The interventions managed by clinical pharmacists after the implementation of the national stewardship policy led to a significant decreasing trend of DDDs in the 19 months following implementation, of 430 fewer DDDs per month in total, compared to the pre-implementation period (p < 0.001). A similar decrease in spending was seen in the post-implementation period, with a trend of $4,682 less total spending on medications in those months compared to the pre-implementation trend (p = 0.003). There was a significant decrease in both monthly DDDs and spending for 6 of the 10 medications in the post-implementation period, while there was a significant increased trend both in monthly DDDs and spending on 1 medication in that period.

Conclusion: Using ITS analysis, the total DDDs and spending on 10 NKMDs in this hospital indicated sustained reductions over 19 months after multidimensional interventions under the implementation of the national policy guidance. The national stewardship policy could therefore be considered an effective strategy. Additional comprehensive policies should be introduced to further improve the rational use of NKMDs.

Perceptions from pharmaceutical stakeholders on how the pharmaceutical budget is allocated in South Africa

Background

South Africa faces a heavy burden of disease, which impacts resource allocation. The needs of South Africa require efficient translation into pharmaceutical expenditure for medicine provision, to ensure availability of medicines. Given that South Africa faces various challenges with medicine provision accompanied by rising pharmaceutical expenditure, this study aimed to report on the considerations and methods used to determine the healthcare budget for South Africa, and how it is translated into pharmaceutical expenditure for medicines provision on the Standard Treatment Guidelines and Essential Medicines List and non-essential medicines in the public sector.

Method

Qualitative, semi-structured interviews guided by a discussion guide were conducted with seven pharmaceutical officials involved in the budget and resource allocation process, between October 2019 and March 2020. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Once the interviews were coded by the first author they were verified by the other authors. Data were thematically analysed.

Results

This study depicted the knowledge and participation of pharmaceutical services in the budget process. The National and Provincial Department of Health have improved pharmaceutical budgeting by making strides towards a collaborative, informed, and more evidence-based approach. Pharmaceutical services have roles in advising on requirements; commenting where necessary, constantly monitor and taking accountability for their budget. The main considerations that determined the budget included population size and growth, historical expenditure, the extra heavy burden of disease and incidence rate, demand data and forecasting. The local and provincial pharmacy and therapeutics committee play a vital role in monitoring the budget and expenditure; ensuring adherence to guidelines; controlling the extent to which non-Essential Medicine List items are used and advising accordingly.

Conclusion

This was the first study to report on the decision and thought processes of the healthcare budget and its translation into pharmaceutical expenditure for medicine provision in South Africa. Many factors were considered to inform the budget, with the Standard Treatment Guideline and Essential Medicines List being the principal guide for medicine provision. This process was well-controlled and monitored by the pharmaceutical therapeutics committee. Documenting the South African experience can assist other countries in their budget decisions for medicines.

Implementing a material planning and control method for special nutrition in a Brazilian public hospital

This study aims to (i) propose a demand forecast model for special nutrition materials in the context of health services, and (ii) comparatively evaluate three inventory management and control systems (periodic review, continuous review and mixed) for special nutrition materials. For that, we carried out a case study in a Brazilian public teaching hospital where data and information collection were conducted over a span of 22 months (from January 2018 and were consolidated until October 2019). A six-step approach was followed to propose the demand forecasting models and, later, evaluate the inventory control systems for special nutrition materials. Results indicate that if the organization implements the proposed inventory management method, there could be savings of up to 33% in the stock values managed by the healthcare organization. This research shows the planning and control of special nutrition materials in an integrated manner. Demand forecasting methods have been combined with inventory management to promote systemic improvements to healthcare organization.

Evidence-based public policy making for medicines across countries: findings and implications for the future

Aim: Global expenditure on medicines is rising up to 6% per year driven by increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and new premium priced medicines for cancer, orphan diseases and other complex areas. This is difficult to sustain without reforms. Methods: Extensive narrative review of published papers and contextualizing the findings to provide future guidance. Results: New models are being introduced to improve the managed entry of new medicines including managed entry agreements, fair pricing approaches and monitoring prescribing against agreed guidance. Multiple measures have also successfully been introduced to improve the prescribing of established medicines. This includes encouraging greater prescribing of generics and biosimilars versus originators and patented medicines in a class to conserve resources without compromising care. In addition, reducing inappropriate antibiotic utilization. Typically, multiple measures are the most effective. Conclusion: Multiple measures will be needed to attain and retain universal healthcare.

Budget impact analysis of medicines: estimated values versus real-world evidence and the implications

Objectives: Budget Impact Analyses (BIA) of medicines helps managers in promoting health systems' sustainability when assessing the role and value of new medicines. However, it is not clear whether BIAs typically underestimate or overestimate the impact on real-world budgets. This retroactive analysis seeks to compare estimated values obtained by a BIA and Real-World Evidence (RWE) to guide discussions.Methods: The estimated values were obtained through a BIA concerning the incorporation of adalimumab for the treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis into the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) carried out retroactively and per international guidelines. RWE data was extracted from SUS computerized systems. We subsequently compared the number of treatments, costs, and Incremental Budget Impact (IBI).Results - The total number of treatments was underestimated by 10% (6,243) and the total expenditure was overestimated by 463% (US$ 4.7 billion). In five years, the total difference between the estimated values and real IBI reached US$ 1.1 billion. A current expenditure of US$ 1.0 was observed for every US$ 5.60 of estimated expenditure.Conclusion - The higher estimates from the BIA might cause decision makers to be more cautious with the introduction of a new medicine to reduce the opportunity costs for other interventions.

A Nationwide Study of Prevalence Rates and Characteristics of 199 Chronic Conditions in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Real-world data of disease prevalence represents an important but underutilised source of evidence for health economic modelling.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to estimate nationwide prevalence rates and summarise the characteristics of 199 chronic conditions using Danish population-based health registers, to provide an off-the-shelf tool for decision makers and researchers.

METHODS

The study population comprised all Danish residents aged 16 years or above on 1 January 2013 (n = 4,555,439). The study was based on the linkage of national registers covering hospital contacts, contacts with primary care (including general practitioners) and filled-in out-of-hospital prescriptions.

RESULTS

A total of 65.6% had one or more chronic condition. The ten conditions with the highest degree of prevalence were hypertension (23.3%), respiratory allergy (18.5%), disorders of lipoprotein metabolism (14.3%), depression (10.0%), bronchitis (9.2%), asthma (7.9%), type 2 diabetes (5.3%), chronic obstructive lung disease (4.7%), osteoarthritis of the knee (3.9%) and finally osteoporosis (3.5%) and ulcers (3.5%) in joint tenth place. Characteristics by gender, age and national geographical differences were also presented.

CONCLUSIONS

A nationwide catalogue of the prevalence rates and characteristics of patients with chronic conditions based on a nationwide population is provided. The prevalence rates of the 199 conditions provide important information on the burden of disease for use in healthcare planning, as well as for economic, aetiological and other research.

Challenges facing drug utilization research in the Latin American region

PURPOSE

The International Society of Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) in collaboration with the Latin America Drug Utilization Research Group (LatAm DURG), the Medicines Utilization Research in Africa (MURIA) group, and the Uppsala Monitoring Center, is leading an initiative to understand challenges to drug utilization research (DUR) in the Latin American (LatAm) and African regions with the goal of communicating results and proposing solutions to these challenges in four scientific publications. The purpose of this first manuscript is to identify the main challenges associated with DUR in the LatAm region.

METHODS

Drug utilization (DU) researchers in the LatAm region voluntarily participated in multiple discussions, contributed with local data and reviewed successive drafts and the final manuscript. Additionally, we carried out a literature review to identify the most relevant publications related to DU studies from the LatAm region.

RESULTS

Multiple challenges were identified in the LatAm region for DUR including socioeconomic inequality, access to medical care, complexity of the healthcare system, limited investment in research and development, limited institutional and organization resources, language barriers, limited health education and literacy. Further, there is limited use of local DUR data by decision makers particularly in the identification of emerging health needs coming from social and demographic transitions.

CONCLUSIONS

The LatAm region faces challenges to DUR which are inherent in the healthcare and political systems, and potential solutions should target changes to the system.

Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure: ten years of experience in Stockholm

Background

Operating under constrained budgets, payers and providers globally face challenges in enabling appropriate and sustainable access to new medicines. Among payer initiatives aiming to improve preparedness of healthcare systems for the introduction of new medicines, drug utilization and expenditure forecasting has played an increasingly important role. This study aims to describe the forecasting model used in Region Stockholm and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts produced over the past decade.

Methods

In this repeated cross-sectional study, we compared the predicted pharmaceutical expenditure with actual expenditure during the entire available follow-up period (2007–2018) both for overall drug utilization and for individual therapeutic groups. All analyses were based on pharmaceutical expenditure data that include medicines used in hospitals and dispensed prescription medicines for all residents of the region.

Results

According to the forecasts, the total pharmaceutical expenditure was estimated to increase between 2 and 8% annually. Our analyses showed that the accuracy of these forecasts varied over the years with a mean absolute error of 1.9 percentage points. Forecasts for the same year were more accurate than forecasts for the next year. The accuracy of forecasts also differed across the therapeutic areas. Factors influencing the accuracy of forecasting included the timing of the introduction of both new medicines and generics, the rate of uptake of new medicines, and sudden changes in reimbursement policies.

Conclusions

Based on the analyses of all forecasting reports produced since the model was established in Stockholm in the late 2000s, we demonstrated that it is feasible to forecast pharmaceutical expenditure with a reasonable accuracy. A number of factors influencing the accuracy of forecasting were also identified. If forecasting is used to provide data for decisions on budget allocation and agreements between payers and providers, we advise to update the forecast as close as possible prior to the decision date.

Forecasting Ontario Oncology Drug Expenditures: A Hybrid Approach to Improving Accuracy

BACKGROUND

The Provincial Drug Reimbursement Program (PDRP) at Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) is responsible for monitoring actual and projected outpatient intravenous cancer drug spending in the province. We developed a hybrid forecasting approach combining automated time-series forecasting with expert-customizable input.

OBJECTIVE

Our objectives were to provide a flexible tool in which to incorporate multiple forecasts and to improve the accuracy of the resulting forecast.

METHODS

The approach employed linear and non-linear time-series techniques and a combined hybrid model incorporating both approaches. We developed an interactive tool that incorporated the statistical models and identified the best performing forecast according to standard goodness-of-fit measures. Model selection procedures considered both the amount of historical expenditure data available per drug policy and the individual policy contributions to the overall budget. The user was allowed to customize forecasts based on knowledge of external factors related to policy or price changes and new drugs that come to market RESULTS: A comparison of 2016/17 fiscal year expenditures showed that all policies with a significant contribution to the overall budget were forecast with < 4% error. Forecasting error was reduced by at least $Can5 million for the nine most expensive policies compared with expert opinion. This approach to drug budget forecasting was implemented in Ontario for the first time in the 2017/18 fiscal year, where 1% error was observed for the overall budget, corresponding to an overestimate of expenditures by $Can3.0 million.

CONCLUSION

We introduced a pragmatic approach for regular forecasting by budget holders in Ontario. Our approach to isolating 'big budget' from 'small budget' drugs using an 80-20 rule and providing multiple forecasts depending on the length of the drug expenditure histories is transferable to other jurisdictions.

Budget Impact of Switching to Biosimilar Trastuzumab (CT-P6) for the Treatment of Breast Cancer and Gastric Cancer in 28 European Countries

BACKGROUND

As the economic burden of treating cancer patients has been soaring in European countries, performing a budget impact analysis is becoming one of the requirements for payers' application dossiers.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to estimate the budgetary impact of introducing the biosimilar trastuzumab (CT-P6) from the payer's perspective and to determine the number of additional patients who could be treated with resulting savings in 28 European countries.

METHODS

A budget impact model was developed to analyze the financial impact of switching from originator trastuzumab to biosimilar CT-P6 in the treatment of early and metastatic breast cancer and metastatic gastric cancer with a time horizon of 1-5 years. Budgetary savings and the number of patients potentially affected were measured based on epidemiological and sales volume data. The base-case analysis assumed that the price of CT-P6 is 70% of the originator price, the switching rate of originator to CT-P6 in the first year is 20%, and the annual growth in the switching rate for each subsequent year is 5%.

RESULTS

For analyses using the base-case scenario following CT-P6 introduction, the total estimated budgetary savings over a 5-year period (depending on the scenario) ranged from €1.13 billion to €2.27 billion based on epidemiological data, or from €0.91 billion to €1.82 billion based on sales volume data. In the first year only, the projected budgetary savings ranged from €58 million to €136 million, and the number of additional patients who could be treated using the savings ranged from 3503 to 7078 by sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The conducted budget impact analysis assessing a switch from originator trastuzumab to biosimilar CT-P6 in 28 European countries indicates that budget savings could be between €0.91 billion and €2.27 billion over the next 5 years. These savings could be used to help improve patient access to local biologics in their respective countries while simultaneously strengthening the overall public health landscape across the European Union.

Medicine Shortages: Gaps Between Countries and Global Perspectives

Introduction: Over the last decade, global health policies and different research areas have focused on the relevance and impact of medicine shortages. Published studies suggest there have been difficulties with access to medicines since the beginning of the 20th century, and there have been advances in our understanding and management of the problem since then. However, in view of global and regional health care concerns with shortages, we believe this phenomenon needs to be characterized and described more fully regarding the types of medicines affected, possible causes, and potential strategies to address these. The aim of this scoping review was to identify, compare if possible, and characterize the recent literature regarding the situation of medicines shortages between countries, and provide different perspectives, including a global context and national approaches.

Methodology: A scoping study presented as a narrative review of the situation and findings principally based on published articles.

Results: Based on the reported cases in the literature, a typology of medicines shortage and supply interruption episodes and their causes were proposed; national approaches to notify and manage the medicines shortages cases were described and classified by update frequency; principal differences between market and supply chain management perspectives of the situation were identified and global and countries’ perspectives were described.

Conclusion: Policy makers require solutions that prevent those cases in which the population’s health is affected by episodes of medicine shortages and/or interruption in the supply chain. There is also a need to generate a glossary related to logistics management and the availability of medicines which will be useful to understand and overcome shortages. In addition, recognize that potential solutions are not only related with actions linked to research, development and innovation, but much wider. Overall, we believe this article can act as a basis for future discussions in this important area.

Scanning the horizon: a systematic literature review of methodologies

OBJECTIVES

Society is confronted with the rapid emergence of innovation in science and technology. To manage this, horizon scanning is being adopted globally to identify, assess and prioritise innovations and trends at an early stage of their development. This enables decision-makers to be better informed and to prepare for change. The aim of this paper is to systematically identify and evaluate horizon scanning methodologies employed in the healthcare and biomedical fields.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed using PubMed and Embase and was supplemented with grey literature searches (2008-2018). The principal methodologies used in horizon scanning were extracted.

RESULTS

Approximately 100 articles were summarised in a literature map. The search revealed many examples of horizon scanning across disciplines. Challenges, such as the need to refine prioritisation criteria, manage uncertainty inherent in the findings and improve the dissemination of identified issues, have been highlighted.

CONCLUSION

Horizon scanning, when performed appropriately, is a flexible and potentially reliable tool, with a wide variety of methods. Horizon scanning can inform and influence decision-making, through identifying opportunities and challenges, from an organisational to an international level. Further research to identify the most effective methodologies available would add depth to this landscape and enable the evolution of best practice to most efficiently anticipate novel developments and innovations.

Clinical and Financial Implications of Medicine Consumption Patterns at a Leading Referral Hospital in Kenya to Guide Future Planning of Care

Background: Medicines can constitute up to 70% of total health care budgets in developing countries as well as considerable expenditure in hospitals. Inventory management techniques can assist with managing resources efficiently. In Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH), a leading hospital in Kenya, over 30% of expenditure is currently allocated to medicines, and this needs to be optimally managed.

Objective: To investigate drug consumption patterns, their costs and morbidity patterns at KNH in recent years.

Methodology: Cross-sectional retrospective record review. Inventory control techniques, ABC (Always, Better, and Control), VEN (Vital, Essential, and Non-essential) and ABC-VEN matrix analyses were used to study drug expenditure patterns. Morbidity data was extracted from the Medical Records.

Results: Out of an average of 811 medicine types procured annually (ATC 5), 80% were formulary drugs and 20% were non-formulary. Class A medicines constituted 13.2–14.2% of different medicines procured each year but accounted for an average of 80% of total annual drug expenditure. Class B medicines constituted 15.9–17% of all the drugs procured yearly but accounted for 15% of the annual expenditure, whilst Class C medicines constituted 70% of total medicines procured but only 5% of the total expenditure. Vital and Essential medicines consumed the highest percentage of drug expenditure. ABC-VEN categorization showed that an average of 31% of medicine types consumed an average of 85% of total drug expenditure. Therapeutic category and Morbidity patterns analysis showed a mismatch between drug expenditure and morbidity patterns in over 85% of the categories.

Conclusion: Class A medicines are few but consume the largest proportion of hospital drug expenditure. Vital and essential items account for the highest drug expenditure, and need to be carefully managed. ABC-VEN categorization identified medicines where major savings could potentially be made helped by Therapeutic category and Morbidity pattern analysis. There was a high percentage of non-formulary items, which needs to be addressed. Inventory control techniques should be applied routinely to optimize medicine use within available budgets especially in low and middle income countries.

Barriers for Access to New Medicines: Searching for the Balance Between Rising Costs and Limited Budgets

Introduction: There is continued unmet medical need for new medicines across countries especially for cancer, immunological diseases, and orphan diseases. However, there are growing challenges with funding new medicines at ever increasing prices along with funding increased medicine volumes with the growth in both infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases across countries. This has resulted in the development of new models to better manage the entry of new medicines, new financial models being postulated to finance new medicines as well as strategies to improve prescribing efficiency. However, more needs to be done. Consequently, the primary aim of this paper is to consider potential ways to optimize the use of new medicines balancing rising costs with increasing budgetary pressures to stimulate debate especially from a payer perspective.

Methods: A narrative review of pharmaceutical policies and implications, as well as possible developments, based on key publications and initiatives known to the co-authors principally from a health authority perspective.

Results: A number of initiatives and approaches have been identified including new models to better manage the entry of new medicines based on three pillars (pre-, peri-, and post-launch activities). Within this, we see the growing role of horizon scanning activities starting up to 36 months before launch, managed entry agreements and post launch follow-up. It is also likely there will be greater scrutiny over the effectiveness and value of new cancer medicines given ever increasing prices. This could include establishing minimum effectiveness targets for premium pricing along with re-evaluating prices as more medicines for cancer lose their patent. There will also be a greater involvement of patients especially with orphan diseases. New initiatives could include a greater role of multicriteria decision analysis, as well as looking at the potential for de-linking research and development from commercial activities to enhance affordability.

Conclusion: There are a number of ongoing activities across countries to try and fund new valued medicines whilst attaining or maintaining universal healthcare. Such activities will grow with increasing resource pressures and continued unmet need.

Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates

BACKGROUND

Within (European) healthcare systems, the predominant goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure-driven by high prices-will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper is to provide more realistic expectations of pharmaceutical expenditure for all key stakeholder groups by estimating pharmaceutical expenditure at 'net' prices. We also aim to estimate any gaps developing between list and net pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK).

METHODS

We adjusted an established forecast of pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries, from 2017 to 2021, by reflecting discounts and rebates not previously considered, i.e. we moved from 'list' to 'net' prices, as far as data were available.

RESULTS

We found an increasing divergence between expenditure measured at list and net prices. When the forecasts for the five countries were aggregated, the EU5 (unweighted) average historical growth (2010-2016) rate fell from 3.4% compound annual growth rate at list to 2.5% at net. For the forecast, the net growth rate was estimated at 1.5 versus 2.9% at list.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that future growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe is likely to be (1) lower than previously understood from forecasts based on list prices and (2) below predicted healthcare expenditure growth in Europe and in line with long-term economic growth rates. For policy makers concerned about the sustainability of pharmaceutical expenditure, this study may provide some comfort, in that the perceived problem is not as large as expected.

Forecasting Participants in the All Women Count! Mammography Program

INTRODUCTION

The All Women Count! (AWC!) program is a no-cost breast and cervical cancer screening program for qualifying women in South Dakota. Our study aimed to identify counties with similar socioeconomic characteristics and to estimate the number of women who will use the program for the next 5 years.

METHODS

We used AWC! data and sociodemographic predictor variables (eg, poverty level [percentage of the population with an annual income at or below 200% of the Federal Poverty Level], median income) and a mixture of Gaussian regression time series models to perform clustering and forecasting simultaneously. Model selection was performed by using Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Forecasting of the predictor variables was done by using an autoregressive integrated moving average model.

RESULTS

By using BIC, we identified 5 clusters showing the groups of South Dakota counties with similar characteristics in terms of predictor variables and the number of participants. The mixture model identified groups of counties with increasing or decreasing trends in participation and forecast averages per cluster.

CONCLUSION

The mixture of regression time series model used in this study allowed for the identification of similar counties and provided a forecasting model for future years. Although several predictors contributed to program participation, we believe our forecasting analysis by county may provide useful information to improve the implementation of the AWC! program by informing program managers on the expected number of participants in the next 5 years. This, in turn, will help in data-driven resource allocation.

Variability in market uptake of psychotropic medications in Europe reflects cultural diversity

BACKGROUND

In the last 20-30 years, many international studies have found substantial differences in the use of (older) psychotropic medication between European countries. The majority mentioned an important role for attitudes and beliefs towards psychotropic medication. So far, no studies have looked into the effects of cultural diversity on the use of new medications entering the market. As national cultures relate deeply to held values regarding, for example, what is seen as effective versus ineffective or safe versus dangerous, (cultural) diversity in decision making around the role of new medications in clinical practice may already be expected from the first day after market authorization.

METHODS

This study examined the relation between cultural diversity, described in Hofstede's model of cultural dimensions (Power Distance, Individualism, Masculinity, Uncertainty Avoidance, Indulgence and Long-Term Orientation) and utilization of three new psychotropic medications, namely aripiprazole, duloxetine and pregabalin in Europe. Country level sales data of the case study medications were correlated to country-specific scores of Hofstede's cultural dimensions. IMS Health's MIDAS database has been used for sales data (converted to Defined Daily Doses/1000 inhabitants/day) for the case study medications from the market authorization date in 2004 until December 2009 for 23 EU member states.

RESULTS

Consumption of the case study medications was seen in all countries. In general, pregabalin was used more often than aripiprazole and duloxetine. In 2 years after market authorization, approximately 80% of all countries have reported use of all three molecules. Correlations between Hofstede dimensions individualism, long-term orientation and indulgence and total use of the case study medications tended to become stronger over time, but they were only statistically significant for indulgence at two years after market authorization (rho = 0.51, p = 0.014) and three years after market authorization (rho = 0.54, p = 0.008). A more detailed analysis showed (slight) variation by molecule.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is a first step in including cultural dimensions when explaining cross-national variation in the use of new medications. The results indicate that indulgence, however marginally, is a cultural aspect that relates to the utilization of new psychotropic medications, suggesting that within the cultural context, less regulation of social norms is a main factor in explaining cross-national variation in uptake of these medications.

The Early Awareness and Alert System in Sweden: History and Current Status

Introduction: Over the past decades, early awareness and alert (EAA) activities and systems have gained importance and become a key early health technology assessment (HTA) tool. While a pioneer in HTA, Sweden had no national level EAA activities until 2010. We describe the evolution and current status of the Swedish EAA System. Methods: This was a historical analysis based on the knowledge and experience of the authors supplemented by a targeted review of published and gray literature as well as documents relating to EAA activities in Sweden. Key milestones and a description of the current state of the Swedish EAA System is presented. Results: Initiatives to establish a system for the identification and assessment of emerging health technologies in Sweden date back to the 1980s. In the 1990s, the Swedish Agency for HTA and Assessment of Social Services (SBU) supported the development of EuroScan as one of its founder members. In the mid-2000s, an independent regional initiative, driven by the Stockholm County Drug and Therapeutics Committee, resulted in the establishment of a regional horizon scanning function. By 2009, this work had expanded to a collaboration between the four biggest counties in Sweden. The following year it was further expanded to the national level and since then the Swedish EAA System has been carrying out identification, filtration and prioritization of new medicines, early assessment of the prioritized medicines, and dissemination of information. In 2015, the EAA System was incorporated into the Swedish national process for managed introduction and follow-up of new medicines. Outputs from the EAA System are now used to select new medicines for inclusion in this process. Conclusions: The Swedish EAA System started as a regional initiative and rapidly grew to become a national level activity. An important feature of the system today is its complete integration into the national process for managed introduction and follow-up of new medicines. The system will continue to evolve as a response both to the changing landscape of health innovations and to new policy initiatives at the regional, national and international level.

High adherence to the 'Wise List' treatment recommendations in Stockholm: a 15-year retrospective review of a multifaceted approach promoting rational use of medicines

OBJECTIVES

To present the 'Wise List' (a formulary of essential medicines for primary and specialised care in Stockholm Healthcare Region) and assess adherence to the recommendations over a 15-year period.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of all prescription data in the Stockholm Healthcare Region between 2000 and 2015 in relation to the Wise List recommendations during the same time period.

SETTING

All outpatient care in the Stockholm Healthcare Region.

PARTICIPANTS

All prescribers in the Stockholm Healthcare Region.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The number of core and complementary substances included in the Wise List, the adherence to recommendations by Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) 1st level using defined daily doses (DDDs) adjusted to the DDD for 2015, adherence to recommendations over time measured by dispensed prescriptions yearly between 2002 and 2015.

RESULTS

The number of recommended core substances was stable (175-212). Overall adherence to the recommendations for core medicines for all prescribers increased from 75% to 84% (2000 to 2015). The adherence to recommendations in primary care for core medicines increased from 80% to 90% (2005 to 2015) with decreasing range in practice variation (32% to 13%). Hospital prescriber adherence to core medicine recommendations was stable but increased for the combination core and complementary medicines from 77% to 88% (2007 to 2015). Adherence varied between the 4 therapeutic areas studied.

CONCLUSIONS

High and increasing adherence to the Wise List recommendations was seen for all prescriber categories. The transparent process for developing recommendations involving respected experts and clinicians using strict criteria for handling potential conflicts of interests, feedback to prescribers, continuous medical education and financial incentives are possible contributing factors. High-quality evidence-based recommendations to prescribers, such as the Wise List, disseminated through a multifaceted approach, will become increasingly important and should be developed further to include recommendations and introduction protocols for new expensive medicines.

Trends in medicines procurement by the Brazilian federal government from 2006 to 2013

The costs of medicines pose a growing burden on healthcare systems worldwide. A comprehensive understanding of current procurement processes provides strong support for the development of effective policies. This study examined Brazilian Federal Government pharmaceutical procurement data provided by the Integrated System for the Administration of General Services (SIASG) database, from 2006 to 2013. Medicine purchases were aggregated by volume and expenditure for each year. Data on expenditure were adjusted for inflation using the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for December 31, 2013. Lorenz distribution curves were used to study the cumulative proportion of purchased therapeutic classes. Expenditure variance analysis was performed to determine the impact of each factor, price and/or volume, on total expenditure variation. Annual expenditure on medicines increased 2.72 times, while the purchased volume of drugs increased 1.99 times. A limited number of therapeutic classes dominated expenditure each year. Drugs for infectious diseases drove the increase in expenditures from 2006 to 2009 but were replaced by antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents beginning in 2010. Immunosuppressants (L04), accounted for one third of purchases since 2010, showing the most substantial growth in expenditures during the period (250-fold increase). The overwhelming price-related increase in expenditures caused by these medicines is bound to have a relevant impact on the sustainability of the pharmaceutical supply system. We observed increasing trends in expenditures, especially in specific therapeutic classes. We propose the development and implementation of better medicine procurement systems, and strategies to allow for monitoring of product price, effectiveness, and safety. This must be done with ongoing assessment of pharmaceutical innovations, therapeutic value and budget impact.

Payers' Views of the Changes Arising through the Possible Adoption of Adaptive Pathways

Payers are a major stakeholder in any considerations and initiatives concerning adaptive licensing of new medicinal products, also referred to as Medicines Adaptive Pathways to patients (MAPPs). Firstly, the scope and necessity of MAPPs need further scrutiny, especially with regard to the definition of unmet need. Conditional approval pathways already exist for new medicines for seriously debilitating or life-threatening diseases and only a limited number of new medicines are innovative. Secondly, MAPPs will result in new medicines on the market with limited evidence about their effectiveness and safety. Additional data are to be collected after approval. Consequently, adaptive pathways may increase the risk of exposing patients to ineffective or unsafe medicines. We have already seen medicines approved conventionally that subsequently proved ineffective or unsafe amongst a wider, more co-morbid population as well as medicines that could have been considered for approval under MAPPs but subsequently proved ineffective or unsafe in Phase III trials and were never licensed. Thirdly, MAPPs also put high demands on payers. Routine collection of patient level data is difficult with high transaction costs. It is not clear who will fund these. Other challenges for payers include shifts in the risk governance framework, implications for evaluation and HTA, increased complexity of setting prices, difficulty with ensuring equity in the allocation of resources, definition of responsibility and liability and implementation of stratified use. Exit strategies also need to be agreed in advance, including price reductions, rebates, or reimbursement withdrawals when price premiums are not justified. These issues and concerns will be discussed in detail including potential ways forward.

Budget impact analysis of medicines: updated systematic review and implications

This evaluation determines whether published studies to date meet the key characteristics identified for budget impact analyses (BIA) for medicines, accomplished through a systematic review and assessment against identified key characteristics. Studies from 2001-2015 on 'budget impact analysis' with 'drug' interventions were assessed, selected based on their titles/abstracts and full texts, and their characteristics checked according to key criteria. Out of 1,984 studies, 92 were subsequently identified for review. Of these, 95% were published in Europe and the USA. 2012 saw the largest number of publications (16%) with a decline thereafter. 48% met up to 7 out of the 9 key characteristics. Only 22% stated no conflict of interest. The results indicate low adherence to the key characteristics that should be considered for BIAs and strong conflict of interest. This is an issue since BIAs can be of fundamental importance in managing the entry of new medicines including reimbursement decisions.

Predictors of primary health care pharmaceutical expenditure by districts in Uganda and implications for budget setting and allocation

Background

There is need for the Uganda Ministry of Health to understand predictors of primary health care pharmaceutical expenditure among districts in order to guide budget setting and to improve efficiency in allocation of the set budget among districts.

Methods

Cross sectional, retrospective observational study using secondary data. The value of pharmaceuticals procured by primary health care facilities in 87 randomly selected districts for the Financial Year 2011/2012 was collected. Various specifications of the dependent variable (pharmaceutical expenditure) were used: total pharmaceutical expenditure, Per capita district pharmaceutical expenditure, pharmaceutical expenditure per district health facility and pharmaceutical expenditure per outpatient department visit. Andersen’s behaviour model of health services utilisation was used as conceptual framework to identify independent variables likely to influence health care utilisation and hence pharmaceutical expenditure. Econometric analysis was conducted to estimate parameters of various regression models.

Results

All models were significant overall (P < 0.01), with explanatory power ranging from 51 to 82 %. The log linear model for total pharmaceutical expenditure explained about 80 % of the observed variation in total pharmaceutical expenditure (Adjusted R² = 0.797) and contained the following variables: Immunisation coverage, Total outpatient department attendance, Urbanisation, Total number of government health facilities and total number of Health Centre IIs. The model based on Per capita Pharmaceutical expenditure explained about 50 % of the observed variation in per capita pharmaceutical expenditure (Adjusted R² = 0.513) and was more balanced with the following variables: Outpatient per capita attendance, percentage of rural population below poverty line 2005, Male Literacy rate, Whether a district is characterised by MOH as difficult to reach or not and the Human poverty index.

Conclusions

The log-linear model based on total pharmaceutical expenditure works acceptably well and can be considered useful for predicting future total pharmaceutical expenditure following observed trends. It can be used as a simple tool for rough estimation of the potential overall national primary health pharmaceutical expenditure to guide budget setting. The model based on pharmaceutical expenditure per capita is a more balanced model containing both need and enabling factor variables. These variables would be useful in allocating any set budget to districts.

Are new models needed to optimize the utilization of new medicines to sustain healthcare systems?

Medicines have made an appreciable contribution to improving health. However, even high-income countries are struggling to fund new premium-priced medicines. This will grow necessitating the development of new models to optimize their use. The objective is to review case histories among health authorities to improve the utilization and expenditure on new medicines. Subsequently, use these to develop exemplar models and outline their implications. A number of issues and challenges were identified from the case histories. These included the low number of new medicines seen as innovative alongside increasing requested prices for their reimbursement, especially for oncology, orphan diseases, diabetes and HCV. Proposed models center on the three pillars of pre-, peri- and post-launch including critical drug evaluation, as well as multi-criteria models for valuing medicines for orphan diseases alongside potentially capping pharmaceutical expenditure. In conclusion, the proposed models involving all key stakeholder groups are critical for the sustainability of healthcare systems or enhancing universal access. The models should help stimulate debate as well as restore trust between key stakeholder groups.

Novel methodology for pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The value appreciation of new drugs across countries today features a disruption that is making the historical data that are used for forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure poorly reliable. Forecasting methods rarely addressed uncertainty. The objective of this project was to propose a methodology to perform pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting that integrates expected policy changes and uncertainty (developed for the European Commission as the 'EU Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast'; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm).

METHODS

1) Identification of all pharmaceuticals going off-patent and new branded medicinal products over a 5-year forecasting period in seven European Union (EU) Member States. 2) Development of a model to estimate direct and indirect impacts (based on health policies and clinical experts) on savings of generics and biosimilars. Inputs were originator sales value, patent expiry date, time to launch after marketing authorization, price discount, penetration rate, time to peak sales, and impact on brand price. 3) Development of a model for new drugs, which estimated sales progression in a competitive environment. Clinical expected benefits as well as commercial potential were assessed for each product by clinical experts. Inputs were development phase, marketing authorization dates, orphan condition, market size, and competitors. 4) Separate analysis of the budget impact of products going off-patent and new drugs according to several perspectives, distribution chains, and outcomes. 5) Addressing uncertainty surrounding estimations via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

This methodology has proven to be effective by 1) identifying the main parameters impacting the variations in pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting across countries: generics discounts and penetration, brand price after patent loss, reimbursement rate, the penetration of biosimilars and discount price, distribution chains, and the time to reach peak sales for new drugs; 2) estimating the statistical distribution of the budget impact; and 3) testing different pricing and reimbursement policy decisions on health expenditures.

CONCLUSIONS

This methodology was independent of historical data and appeared to be highly flexible and adapted to test robustness and provide probabilistic analysis to support policy decision making.

Quality indicators as a tool in improving the introduction of new medicines

Quality indicators are increasingly used as a tool to achieve safe and quality clinical care, cost-effective therapy, for professional learning, remuneration, accreditation and financial incentives. A substantial number focus on drug therapy but few address the introduction of new medicines even though this is a burning issue. The objective was to describe the issues and challenges in designing and implementing a transparent indicator framework and evaluation protocol for the introduction of new medicines and to provide guidance on how to apply quality indicators in the managed entry of new medicines. Quality indicators need to be developed early to assess whether new medicines are introduced appropriately. A number of key factors need to be addressed when developing, applying and evaluating indicators including dimensions of quality, suggested testing protocols, potential data sources, key implementation factors such as intended and unintended consequences, budget impact and cost-effectiveness, assuring the involvement of the medical professions, patients and the public, and reliable and easy-to-use computerized tools for data collection and management. Transparent approaches include the need for any quality indicators developed to handle conflict of interests to enhance their validity and acceptance. The suggested framework and indicator testing protocol may be useful in assessing the applicability of indicators for new medicines and may be adapted to healthcare settings worldwide. The suggestions build on existing literature to create a field testing methodology that can be used to produce country-specific quality indicators for new medicines as well as a cross international approach to facilitate access to new medicines.

Is the prescribing behavior of Chinese physicians driven by financial incentives?

The prescribing behavior to prescribe high-priced drugs has been hypothesized to be related to the increasing drug expenditures in China, but little empirical evidence exists. The purpose of this study was to examine whether Chinese physicians, driven by financial incentives, tend to prescribe high-priced drugs. The 2000-2008 drug data in the Yangtze River Basin Hospitals' Drug Use Analysis System were analyzed to examine the prescription patterns of penicillins and cephalosporins in Shanghai. Among the top-100 drugs (by volume), cephalosporins cost as 1.1- 2.3 times as penicillins and their volume was 1.7-18.2 times. Revenues generated from prescribing cephalosporins were 3.4-24.2 times as those from prescribing penicillins. The tendency of prescribing relatively high-priced drugs was observed given the same chemical name, dosage, and specification but different trade names. Furthermore, high-priced drugs remained on the top-100 list with increasing volumes, while some lower-priced drugs exited from the list due to decreases in volumes. Facing the policy dilemmas, the Chinese government needs to implement a new financially rewarding system in which hospitals and physicians are able to achieve financial gains in a cost-effective way including prescribing similar drugs with lower prices. Reforming hospitals' payment methods is necessary and feasible to reshape financial incentives of healthcare providers. The combination of the global budget policy and financial incentive measures would be likely to change providers' prescribing behaviors towards a cost-effective direction.

Pregabalin is increasingly prescribed for neuropathic pain, generalised anxiety disorder and epilepsy but many patients discontinue treatment

AIM

To assess prescribing patterns, sociodemographic characteristics and previous disease history in patients receiving pregabalin.

METHODS

An observational study using register data on dispensed drugs and recorded diagnoses for all patients in Stockholm, Sweden, who filled at least one prescription of pregabalin between July 2005 and December 2009. Analyses focused on prevalence, incidence, diagnosis patterns, prior dispensing of other analgesics/psychotropics and persistence to treatment over time.

RESULT

A total of 18,626 patients (mean age 55 years, 63% women) were initiated on treatment between July 2006 and December 2009. Approved indications were recorded in hospital and/or primary care within 1 year prior to the first dispensing for 40% of the patients (epilepsy 1.3%, neuropathic pain 35.5% and generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) 3.6%). Antidepressants were used by 55%, opioids by 49% and sedatives by 48% prior to initiation of pregabalin. One-third (34%) only purchased one prescription and the proportion purchasing pregabalin 1 year after initiation was 42.1% for epilepsy, 36.3% for GAD, 21.5% for neuropathic pain and 25.6% for those without any of the included diagnoses.

CONCLUSION

Pregabalin was mainly used as a second-line drug for the treatment of GAD or neuropathic pain and to a lesser extent as add-on therapy in epilepsy. However, a large proportion of all patients only purchased one prescription and the persistence declined rapidly over time. The issue of potential off-label prescribing or poor registration of diagnoses should also be noted as a high proportion had been prescribed the drug without a record of any of the approved indications.

Projecting expenditure on medicines in the UK NHS

BACKGROUND

Expenditure on medicines is a readily identifiable element of health service costs. It is the focus of much attention by payers, not least in the UK even though the cost of medicines represents less than 10 % of total UK National Health Service (NHS) expenditure. Projecting future medicines spending enables the likely cost pressure to be allowed for in planning the scale and allocation of NHS resources. Simple extrapolations of past trends in expenditure fail to account for changes in the rate and mix of new medicines becoming available and in the scope for windfall savings when some medicines lose their patent protection. The objective of this study is to develop and test an improved method to project NHS pharmaceutical expenditure in the UK for the period 2012-2015.

METHODS

We have adopted a product-by-product, bottom-up approach, which means that our projections are built up from individual products to the total market. Our projections of the impact of generic and biosimilars entry on prices and quantities of medicines sold, and of the rate of uptake of newly launched medicines, have been obtained from regression analysis of UK data. To address uncertainty, we have created a baseline and two other illustrative scenarios. We have compared our projections with actual expenditure for 2012.

RESULTS

Our projections estimate that, between 2011 and 2015, with no change in policy or price regulation, the UK total medicines bill would increase at an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of between 3.1 and 4.1 %. Total NHS spending on branded medicines and total NHS spending on generics are projected to increase at average CAGRs of 0.5-1.8 and 10.0-11.0 %, respectively, over the same time period. For the total market, the actual growth rate for 2012 lay within our projected range.

CONCLUSIONS

Our methodology provides a useful framework for projecting UK NHS medicines expenditure over the medium term and captures the impacts of existing medicines losing exclusivity and of new medicines being launched onto the market.

Personalizing health care: feasibility and future implications

Considerable variety in how patients respond to treatments, driven by differences in their geno- and/ or phenotypes, calls for a more tailored approach. This is already happening, and will accelerate with developments in personalized medicine. However, its promise has not always translated into improvements in patient care due to the complexities involved. There are also concerns that advice for tests has been reversed, current tests can be costly, there is fragmentation of funding of care, and companies may seek high prices for new targeted drugs. There is a need to integrate current knowledge from a payer's perspective to provide future guidance. Multiple findings including general considerations; influence of pharmacogenomics on response and toxicity of drug therapies; value of biomarker tests; limitations and costs of tests; and potentially high acquisition costs of new targeted therapies help to give guidance on potential ways forward for all stakeholder groups. Overall, personalized medicine has the potential to revolutionize care. However, current challenges and concerns need to be addressed to enhance its uptake and funding to benefit patients.

The establishment and expansion of an innovative centre for rational pharmacotherapy--determinants and challenges

INTRODUCTION

The regional Board of Health in Stockholm, Sweden, established the Pharmacotherapy Centre (PTC) to enhance the rational use of medicines. The PTC initiated computerised decision support systems and developed a range of electronic service products to sustain rational prescribing. However, knowledge about which determinants have supported or hindered the sustainability of this type of healthcare organisation is limited.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to identify and explore determinants that support or challenge the development and sustainability of the PTC organisation, as well as investigate the key elements of their implementation efforts.

METHODS

An in-depth interview study among key informants involved in the establishment of the PTC organisation was conducted. Data were analysed using qualitative content analysis.

RESULTS

Findings suggest that determinants enabling the development and expansion of this organisation include the presence of innovative characteristics among the PTC leadership and the ability of leaders to nurture visionary innovation in others, as well as the instigation of informal social networks and to identify end-user needs. Challenges included an ambiguous relationship to the pharmaceutical industry, an underestimation of the innovation-system fit and to undertake systematic evaluation of created impact by the organisation. Although prescriber use of electronic service products and adherence to an essential drug list increased over time, it remains difficult to identify methods required for demonstrating patient effects.

CONCLUSION

Whereas some determinants enabled the successful expansion of the PTC organisation, others served to substantially hinder it. The determinants identified can pave the way for systematic investigations into organisational change and development research in the pharmaceutical field.

The Nordic prescription databases as a resource for pharmacoepidemiological research--a literature review

PURPOSE

All five Nordic countries have nationwide prescription databases covering all dispensed drugs, with potential for linkage to outcomes. The aim of this review is to present an overview of therapeutic areas studied and methods applied in pharmacoepidemiologic studies using data from these databases.

METHODS

The study consists of a Medline-based structured literature review of scientific papers published during 2005-2010 using data from the prescription databases in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, covering 25 million inhabitants. Relevant studies were analyzed in terms of pharmacological group, study population, outcomes examined, type of study (drug utilization vs. effect of drug therapy), country of origin, and extent of cross-national collaboration.

RESULTS

A total of 515 studies were identified. Of these, 262 were conducted in Denmark, 97 in Finland, 4 in Iceland, 87 in Norway, and 61 in Sweden. Four studies used data from more than one Nordic country. The most commonly studied drugs were those acting on the nervous system, followed by cardiovascular drugs and gastrointestinal/endocrine drugs. A total of 228 studies examined drug utilization and 263 focused on the effects and safety of drug therapy. Pregnant women were the most commonly studied population in safety studies, whereas prescribers' adherence to guidelines was the most frequent topic of drug utilization studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The Nordic prescription databases, with their possibility of record-linkage, represent an outstanding resource for assessing the beneficial and adverse effects of drug use in large populations, under routine care conditions, and with the potential for long-term follow-up.

Dabigatran - a case history demonstrating the need for comprehensive approaches to optimize the use of new drugs

BACKGROUND

There are potential conflicts between authorities and companies to fund new premium priced drugs especially where there are safety and/or budget concerns. Dabigatran, a new oral anticoagulant for the prevention of stroke in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF), exemplifies this issue. Whilst new effective treatments are needed, there are issues in the elderly with dabigatran due to variable drug concentrations, no known antidote and dependence on renal elimination. Published studies have shown dabigatran to be cost-effective but there are budget concerns given the prevalence of AF. There are also issues with potentially re-designing anticoagulant services. This has resulted in activities across countries to better manage its use.

OBJECTIVE

To (i) review authority activities in over 30 countries and regions, (ii) use the findings to develop new models to better manage the entry of new drugs, and (iii) review the implications for all major stakeholder groups.

METHODOLOGY

Descriptive review and appraisal of activities regarding dabigatran and the development of guidance for groups through an iterative process.

RESULTS

There has been a plethora of activities among authorities to manage the prescribing of dabigatran including extensive pre-launch activities, risk sharing arrangements, prescribing restrictions, and monitoring of prescribing post-launch. Reimbursement has been denied in some countries due to concerns with its budget impact and/or excessive bleeding. Development of a new model and future guidance is proposed to better manage the entry of new drugs, centering on three pillars of pre-, peri-, and post-launch activities.

CONCLUSION

Models for introducing new drugs are essential to optimize their prescribing especially where there are concerns. Without such models, new drugs may be withdrawn prematurely and/or struggle for funding.

Improving the managed entry of new medicines: sharing experiences across Europe

The 3-day course on the managed entry of new medicines was run by the Piperska group, which is a pan-European group striving to enhance the health of the public as a whole and the individual patient through exchanging ideas and research around the rational use of drugs. Participants included health authority and health insurance personnel, academics and those from commercial organizations. The principal aim of the conference was to bring together people to discuss ways to improve the managed entry of new drugs.

International variability in the reimbursement of cancer drugs by publically funded drug programs

PURPOSE

Evaluate inter-country variability in the reimbursement of publically funded cancer drugs, and identify factors such as cost containment measures that may contribute to variability.

METHODS

As of February 28, 2010, licensed indications for 10 cancer drugs (bevacizumab, bortezomib, cetuximab, erlotinib, imatinib, pemetrexed, rituximab, sorafenib, sunitinib, and trastuzumab) were obtained from the drug registries of 6 licensing authorities corresponding to 13 countries or regions: Australia, Canada (Ontario), England, Finland, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Scotland, Sweden, and the United States (Medicare Parts B and D). Number of licensed indications reimbursed by public payers and the use of cost containment measures were obtained by survey of health authorities involved in reimbursement and through public documents.

RESULTS

The 48 identified licensed indications varied between agencies (range: 36-44 indications). Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, and the United States reimbursed the highest percentage of indications (range: 90%-100%). Canada (54%), Australia (46%), Scotland (40%), England (38%), and New Zealand (25%) reimbursed the least. All 5 countries with the lowest rate of reimbursement incorporated a cost-effectiveness analysis into reimbursement decisions and rejected submissions for reimbursement mainly because of lack of cost effectiveness; in New Zealand, lack of cost effectiveness was the second leading cause of rejection after excessive cost. In 9 countries, risk-sharing agreements were used to contain costs. Indications initially not recommended for reimbursement (9 in Australia, 5 in Canada, and 3 in England, New Zealand, and Scotland) were subsequently approved with risk-sharing agreements or special pricing arrangements.

CONCLUSIONS

Reimbursement of publically funded cancer drugs varies globally. The cause is multifactorial.

Sustained virological response to treatment of chronic hepatitis C with peginterferon alfa and ribavirin

This study aimed to evaluate the rate of sustained virological response (SVR) and the clinical and treatment characteristics of patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). A retrospective uncontrolled cohort study was conducted among patients who received treatment for CHC between 2005 and 2008 attended at the Center for the Application and Monitoring of Injectable Medications, in Florianopolis, SC, Brazil. The inclusion criteria were: patients over 18 years of age, with a confirmed diagnosis of chronic hepatitis C according to Brazilian guidelines, treated with PEG-IFN alfa-2a or 2b associated with RBV. A total of 188 patients were included in the study: 70% men, 59% genotype 1, 27% coinfected with HIV, 31% with cirrhosis. The SVR rate, calculated by probability theory, was determined as 26% (max=57.4% and min=12.8%) and the intention to treat was 12.8%. Associations between Sustained Virological Response (SVR) and the variables sex (p=0.017), age (p=0.003), genotype (p=0.648) and cirrhosis (p=0.275), were determined in the bivariate analysis and only sex and age were significantly associated with SVR. The SVR rate was considered low, which can be partially explained by patients' unfavorable pretreatment characteristics.

Policies to enhance prescribing efficiency in europe: findings and future implications

Introduction: European countries need to learn from each other to address unsustainable increases in pharmaceutical expenditures. Objective: To assess the influence of the many supply and demand-side initiatives introduced across Europe to enhance prescribing efficiency in ambulatory care. As a result provide future guidance to countries. Methods: Cross national retrospective observational study of utilization (DDDs – defined daily doses) and expenditure (Euros and local currency) of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and statins among 19 European countries and regions principally from 2001 to 2007. Demand-side measures categorized under the “4Es” – education engineering, economics, and enforcement. Results: Instigating supply side initiatives to lower the price of generics combined with demand-side measures to enhance their prescribing is important to maximize prescribing efficiency. Just addressing one component will limit potential efficiency gains. The influence of demand-side reforms appears additive, with multiple initiatives typically having a greater influence on increasing prescribing efficiency than single measures apart from potentially “enforcement.” There are also appreciable differences in expenditure (€/1000 inhabitants/year) between countries. Countries that have not introduced multiple demand side measures to counteract commercial pressures to enhance the prescribing of generics have seen considerably higher expenditures than those that have instigated a range of measures. Conclusions: There are considerable opportunities for European countries to enhance their prescribing efficiency, with countries already learning from each other. The 4E methodology allows European countries to concisely capture the range of current demand-side measures and plan for the future knowing that initiatives can be additive to further enhance their prescribing efficiency.

Usage, risk, and benefit of weight-loss drugs in primary care

Purpose. To investigate the use of the weight-loss drugs rimonabant, sibutramine, and orlistat in primary care and to characterize the patients receiving the drugs. Methods. In this retrospective, descriptive study, 300 randomly selected patients having started weight-loss drug treatment at 15 primary care centres were investigated using the patient's medical records and their complete drug purchase data. Results. Even though 48% of the patients specifically demanded drug treatment, 77% continued treatment less than one year. 28% of rimonabant patients and 32% of sibutramine patients had a history of depression or antidepressant treatment. 41% of sibutramine patients had a history of hypertension and/or cardiovascular disease. 36% had no documented weight after treatment initiation. Conclusions. These results suggest that weight-loss drug treatment was often initiated upon patient request but was of limited clinical benefit as it was managed in a large portion of Swedish primary carecenters.

Use of Generics-A Critical Cost Containment Measure for All Healthcare Professionals in Europe?

Pharmaceutical expenditures in ambulatory care rose rapidly in Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s. This was typically faster than other components of healthcare spending, leading to reforms to moderate future growth. A number of these centered on generic medicines with measures to lower reimbursed prices as well as enhance their prescribing and dispensing. The principal objective of this paper is to review additional measures that some European countries can adopt to further reduce reimbursed prices for generics. Secondly, potential approaches to address concerns with generics when they arise to maximize savings. Measures to enhance the prescribing of generics will also briefly be discussed. A narrative review of the extensive number of publications and associated references from the co-authors was conducted supplemented with known internal or web-based articles. In addition, health authority and health insurance databases, principally from 2001 to 2007, were analyzed to assess the impact of the various measures on price reductions for generic omeprazole and generic simvastatin vs. pre-patent loss prices, as well as overall efficiency in Proton Pump Inhibitor (PPI) and statin prescribing. The various initiatives generally resulted in considerable lowering of the prices of generics as well as specifically for generic omeprazole and generic simvastatin vs. pre-patent loss prices. At one stage in the UK, generic simvastatin was just 2% of the originator price. These measures also led to increased efficiency for PPI and statin prescribing with reimbursed expenditure for the PPIs and statins either falling or increasing at appreciably lower rates than increases in utilization. A number of strategies have also been introduced to address patient and physician concerns with generics to maximize savings. In conclusion, whilst recent reforms have been successful, European countries must continue learning from each other to fund increased volumes and new innovative drugs as resource pressures grow. Policies regarding generics and their subsequent impact on reimbursement and utilization of single sourced products will continue to play a key role to release valuable resources. However, there must continue to be strategies to address concerns with generics when they exist.