Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain

Imported Malaria in Children: A Study Over an 11-Year Period in Brussels

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a major global public health concern in endemic countries and imported childhood malaria is increasing in malaria non-endemic countries.

METHODS

This was a retrospective case review of all laboratory-confirmed malaria cases in children 0-16 years admitted between 2009 and 2019 in 2 large university teaching Hospitals in Brussels.

RESULTS

A total of 160 children with a median age of 6.8 years (range 5-191 months) were included. We identified 109 (68%) children living in Belgium who had acquired malaria during their visit to malaria-endemic countries to visiting friends and relatives (VFRs), 49 children (31%) visitors or newly installed migrants, and 2 Belgian tourists. Peak seasonal incidence occurred between August and September. Plasmodium falciparum was responsible for 89% of all malaria cases. Almost 80% of children living in Belgium visited a travel clinic for advice, but only one-third reported having taken the prophylaxis schedule according to the recommendations. Based on WHO criteria, 31 children (19.3%) developed severe malaria; most of the patients with severe malaria were VFR travelers and were significantly younger, had higher leukocytosis, had more thrombocytopenia, higher CRP, and lower natremia compared with patients with an uncomplicated course. All children recovered fully.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria is a significant cause of morbidity among returning travelers and newly arrived immigrants to Belgium. Most of the children had an uncomplicated disease course. Physicians should educate families about traveling to malaria-endemic areas to correct malaria preventive measures and prophylaxis.

Predicting the risk of malaria re-introduction in countries certified malaria-free: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Predicting the risk of malaria in countries certified malaria-free is crucial for the prevention of re-introduction. This review aimed to identify and describe existing prediction models for malaria re-introduction risk in eliminated settings.

METHODS

A systematic literature search following the PRISMA guidelines was carried out. Studies that developed or validated a malaria risk prediction model in eliminated settings were included. At least two authors independently extracted data using a pre-defined checklist developed by experts in the field. The risk of bias was assessed using both the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) and the adapted Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (aNOS).

RESULTS

A total 10,075 references were screened and 10 articles describing 11 malaria re-introduction risk prediction models in 6 countries certified malaria free. Three-fifths of the included prediction models were developed for the European region. Identified parameters predicting malaria re-introduction risk included environmental and meteorological, vectorial, population migration, and surveillance and response related factors. Substantial heterogeneity in predictors was observed among the models. All studies were rated at a high risk of bias by PROBAST, mostly because of a lack of internal and external validation of the models. Some studies were rated at a low risk of bias by the aNOS scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria re-introduction risk remains substantial in many countries that have eliminated malaria. Multiple factors were identified which could predict malaria risk in eliminated settings. Although the population movement is well acknowledged as a risk factor associated with the malaria re-introduction risk in eliminated settings, it is not frequently incorporated in the risk prediction models. This review indicated that the proposed models were generally poorly validated. Therefore, future emphasis should be first placed on the validation of existing models.

Digital health for climate change mitigation and response: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Climate change poses a major threat to the operation of global health systems, triggering large scale health events, and disrupting normal system operation. Digital health may have a role in the management of such challenges and in greenhouse gas emission reduction. This scoping review explores recent work on digital health responses and mitigation approaches to climate change.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched Medline up to February 11, 2022, using terms for digital health and climate change. Included articles were categorized into 3 application domains (mitigation, infectious disease, or environmental health risk management), and 6 technical tasks (data sensing, monitoring, electronic data capture, modeling, decision support, and communication). The review was PRISMA-ScR compliant.

RESULTS

The 142 included publications reported a wide variety of research designs. Publication numbers have grown substantially in recent years, but few come from low- and middle-income countries. Digital health has the potential to reduce health system greenhouse gas emissions, for example by shifting to virtual services. It can assist in managing changing patterns of infectious diseases as well as environmental health events by timely detection, reducing exposure to risk factors, and facilitating the delivery of care to under-resourced areas.

DISCUSSION

While digital health has real potential to help in managing climate change, research remains preliminary with little real-world evaluation.

CONCLUSION

Significant acceleration in the quality and quantity of digital health climate change research is urgently needed, given the enormity of the global challenge.

Spatio-temporal Prediction of the Malaria Transmission Risk in Minab District (Hormozgan Province, Southern Iran)

INTRODUCTION

Malaria is the most important parasitic disease in tropical and subtropical regions, with more than 240 million cases reported annually. In Iran, indigenous cases occur in its south-eastern region. The aim of this study is to assess the environmental risk of malaria transmission in an endemic area of southern Iran.

METHODS

The study was carried out in Minab district (Hormozgan province, southern Iran), with the aim to assess the environmental risk of malaria, based on a spatio-temporal study, using Growing Degree Days (GDD)-based predictions, larval habitat ecology, MaxEnt spatial predictions and malaria transmission data.

RESULTS

The Gradient Model Risk index showed the highest malaria transmission risk period to be during January-April and October-December. The ecological conditions of water bodies of larval habitats of the four vector species (Anopheles culicifacies, A. dthali, A. fluviatilis and A. stephensi) were assessed, with A. stephensi being the most prevalent and the most widely distributed species.

CONCLUSION

These findings, together with the MaxEnt Anopheles predictive distribution models, allowed identifying villages in danger of malaria transmission in Minab district. This spatio-temporal prediction of malaria transmission risk should be incorporated in the design of malaria control initiatives towards a local malaria early warning system. Moreover, the proposed transmission risk model can be extrapolated, at local scale, to other malaria endemic areas of tropical and subtropical regions.

Spatial Analysis of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Europe: A Scoping Review

Mosquito-borne infections are increasing in endemic areas and previously unaffected regions. In 2020, the notification rate for Dengue was 0.5 cases per 100,000 population, and for Chikungunya <0.1/100,000. In 2019, the rate for Malaria was 1.3/100,000, and for West Nile Virus, 0.1/100,000. Spatial analysis is increasingly used in surveillance and epidemiological investigation, but reviews about their use in this research topic are scarce. We identify and describe the methodological approaches used to investigate the distribution and ecological determinants of mosquito-borne infections in Europe. Relevant literature was extracted from PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from inception until October 2021 and analysed according to PRISMA-ScR protocol. We identified 110 studies. Most used geographical correlation analysis (n = 50), mainly applying generalised linear models, and the remaining used spatial cluster detection (n = 30) and disease mapping (n = 30), mainly conducted using frequentist approaches. The most studied infections were Dengue (n = 32), Malaria (n = 26), Chikungunya (n = 26), and West Nile Virus (n = 24), and the most studied ecological determinants were temperature (n = 39), precipitation (n = 24), water bodies (n = 14), and vegetation (n = 11). Results from this review may support public health programs for mosquito-borne disease prevention and may help guide future research, as we recommended various good practices for spatial epidemiological studies.

Updated occurrence and bionomics of potential malaria vectors in Europe: a systematic review (2000-2021)

Despite the eradication of malaria across most European countries in the 1960s and 1970s, the anopheline vectors are still present. Most of the malaria cases that have been reported in Europe up to the present time have been infections acquired in endemic areas by travelers. However, the possibility of acquiring malaria by locally infected mosquitoes has been poorly investigated in Europe, despite autochthonous malaria cases having been occasionally reported in several European countries. Here we present an update on the occurrence of potential malaria vector species in Europe. Adopting a systematic review approach, we selected 288 papers published between 2000 and 2021 for inclusion in the review based on retrieval of accurate information on the following Anopheles species: An. atroparvus, An. hyrcanus sensu lato (s.l.), An. labranchiae, An. maculipennis sensu stricto (s.s.), An. messeae/daciae, An. sacharovi, An. superpictus and An. plumbeus. The distribution of these potential vector species across Europe is critically reviewed in relation to areas of major presence and principal bionomic features, including vector competence to Plasmodium. Additional information, such as geographical details, sampling approaches and species identification methods, are also reported. We compare the information on each species extracted from the most recent studies to comparable information reported from studies published in the early 2000s, with particular reference to the role of each species in malaria transmission before eradication. The picture that emerges from this review is that potential vector species are still widespread in Europe, with the largest diversity in the Mediterranean area, Italy in particular. Despite information on their vectorial capacity being fragmentary, the information retrieved suggests a re-definition of the relative importance of potential vector species, indicating An. hyrcanus s.l., An. labranchiae, An. plumbeus and An. sacharovi as potential vectors of higher importance, while An. messeae/daciae and An. maculipennis s.s. can be considered to be moderately important species. In contrast, An. atroparvus and An. superpictus should be considered as vectors of lower importance, particularly in relation to their low anthropophily. The presence of gaps in current knowledge of vectorial systems in Europe becomes evident in this review, not only in terms of vector competence but also in the definition of sampling approaches, highlighting the need for further research to adopt the appropriate surveillance system for each species.

Imported Malaria in Portugal: Prevalence of Polymorphisms in the Anti-Malarial Drug Resistance Genes pfmdr1 and pfk13

Malaria is one of the ‘big three’ killer infectious diseases, alongside tuberculosis and HIV. In non-endemic areas, malaria may occur in travelers who have recently been to or visited endemic regions. The number of imported malaria cases in Portugal has increased in recent years, mostly due to the close relationship with the community of Portuguese language countries. Samples were collected from malaria-infected patients attending Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Ocidental (CHLO) or the outpatient clinic of Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (IHMT-NOVA) between March 2014 and May 2021. Molecular characterization of Plasmodium falciparum pfk13 and pfmdr1 genes was performed. We analyzed 232 imported malaria cases. The majority (68.53%) of the patients came from Angola and only three patients travelled to a non-African country; one to Brazil and two to Indonesia. P. falciparum was diagnosed in 81.47% of the cases, P. malariae in 7.33%, P. ovale 6.47% and 1.72% carried P. vivax. No mutations were detected in pfk13. Regarding pfmdr1, the wild-type haplotype (N86/Y184/D1246) was also the most prevalent (64.71%) and N86/184F/D1246 was detected in 26.47% of the cases. The typical imported malaria case was middle-aged male, traveling from Angola, infected with P. falciparum carrying wild type pfmdr1 and pfk13. Our study highlights the need for constant surveillance of malaria parasites imported into Portugal as an important pillar of public health.

Environmental drivers, climate change and emergent diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and their vectors in southern Europe: A systematic review

Mosquito borne diseases are a group of infections that affect humans. Emerging or reemerging diseases are those that (re)occur in regions, groups or hosts that were previously free from these diseases: dengue virus; chikungunya virus; Zika virus; West Nile fever and malaria. In Europe, these infections are mostly imported; however, due to the presence of competent mosquitoes and the number of trips both to and from endemic areas, these pathogens are potentially emergent or re-emergent. Present and future climatic conditions, as well as meteorological, environmental and demographic aspects are risk factors for the distribution of different vectors and/or diseases. This review aimed to identify and analyze the existing literature on the transmission of mosquito borne diseases and those factors potentially affecting their transmission risk of them in six southern European countries with similar environmental conditions: Croatia, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. In addition, we would identify those factors potentially affecting the (re)introduction or spread of mosquito vectors. This task has been undertaken with a focus on the environmental and climatic factors, including the effects of climate change. We undertook a systematic review of the vectors, diseases and their associations with climactic and environmental factors in European countries of the Mediterranean region. We followed the PRISMA guidelines and used explicit and systematic methods to identify, select and critically evaluate the studies which were relevant to the topic. We identified 1302 articles in the first search of the databases. Of those, 160 were selected for full-text review. The final data set included 61 articles published between 2000 and 2017.39.3% of the papers were related with dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus or their vectors. Temperature, precipitation and population density were key factors among others. 32.8% studied West Nile virus and its vectors, being temperature, precipitation and NDVI the most frequently used variables. Malaria have been studied in 23% of the articles, with temperature, precipitation and presence of water indexes as the most used variables. The number of publications focused on mosquito borne diseases is increasing in recent years, reflecting the increased interest in that diseases in southern European countries. Climatic and environmental variables are key factors on mosquitoes' distribution and to show the risk of emergence and/or spread of emergent diseases and to study the spatial changes in that distributions.

Laboratory colonization and maintenance of Anopheles atroparvus from the Ebro Delta, Spain

Background

Historically, Anopheles atroparvus has been considered one of the most important malaria vectors in Europe. Since malaria was eradicated from the European continent, the interest in studying its vectors reduced significantly. Currently, to better assess the potential risk of malaria resurgence on the continent, there is a growing need to update the data on susceptibility of indigenous Anopheles populations to imported Plasmodium species. In order to do this, as a first step, an adequate laboratory colony of An. atroparvus is needed.

Methods

Anopheles atroparvus mosquitoes were captured in rice fields from the Ebro Delta (Spain). Field-caught specimens were maintained in the laboratory under simulated field-summer conditions. Adult females were artificially blood-fed on fresh whole rabbit blood for oviposition. First- to fourth-instar larvae were fed on pulverized fish and turtle food. Adults were maintained with a 10% sucrose solution ad libitum.

Results

An An. atroparvus population from the Ebro Delta was successfully established in the laboratory. During the colonization process, feeding and hatching rates increased, while a reduction in larval mortality rate was observed.

Conclusions

The present study provides a detailed rearing and maintenance protocol for An. atroparvus and a publicly available reference mosquito strain within the INFRAVEC2 project for further research studies involving vector-parasite interactions.

Rising temperature and its impact on receptivity to malaria transmission in Europe: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Malaria is one of the most life-threatening vector-borne diseases globally. Recent autochthonous cases registered in several European countries have raised awareness regarding the threat of malaria reintroduction to Europe. An increasing number of imported malaria cases today occur due to international travel and migrant flows from malaria-endemic countries. The cumulative factors of the presence of competent vectors, favourable climatic conditions and evidence of increasing temperatures might lead to the re-emergence of malaria in countries where the infection was previously eliminated.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature review following PRISMA guidelines. We searched for original articles focusing on rising temperature and the receptivity to malaria transmission in Europe. We evaluated the quality of the selected studies using a standardised tool.

RESULTS

The search resulted in 1'999 articles of possible relevance and after screening we included 10 original research papers in the quantitative analysis for the systematic review. With further increasing temperatures studies predicted a northward spread of the occurrence of Anopheles mosquitoes and an extension of seasonality, enabling malaria transmission for annual periods up to 6 months in the years 2051-2080. Highest vector stability and receptivity were predicted in Southern and South-Eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the main potential malaria vector in Europe, might play an important role under changing conditions favouring malaria transmission.

CONCLUSION

The receptivity of Europe for malaria transmission will increase as a result of rising temperature unless socioeconomic factors remain favourable and appropriate public health measures are implemented. Our systematic review serves as an evidence base for future preventive measures.

Climate Change as an Involuntary Exposure: A Comparative Risk Perception Study from Six Countries across the Global Development Gradient

Climate change has been referred to as an involuntary exposure, meaning people do not voluntarily put themselves at risk for climate-related ill health or reduced standard of living. The purpose of this study is to examine people’s risk perceptions and related beliefs regarding (1) the likelihood of different risks occurring at different times and places and (2) collective (government) responsibility and personal efficacy in dealing with climate change, as well as (3) explore the ways in which climate risk may be amplified when posed against individual health and well-being. Previous research on this topic has largely focused on one community or one nation state, and so a unique characteristic of this study is the comparison between six different city (country) sites by their development and national wealth. Here, we collected 401 surveys from Phoenix (USA), Brisbane (Australia), Wellington (New Zealand), Shanghai (China), Viti Levu (Fiji), and Mexico City (Mexico). Results suggest that the hyperopia effect characterized the sample from each study site but was more pronounced in developed sites, suggesting that the more developed sites employ a broader perspective when approaching ways to mitigate their risk against climate-related health and well-being impacts.

Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates оn the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region

The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.

Pharmaceuticals as chemical markers of wastewater contamination in the vulnerable area of the Ebro Delta (Spain)

This study evaluated the occurrence and distribution of 81 pharmaceutically active compounds (PhACs) in the vulnerable area of the Ebro Delta region (Catalonia, Spain), to assess the environmental impact of wastewater treatment plants discharge to coastal environments. The occurrence of PhACs was followed along the wastewater-recipient water-sediment chain until they reach estuaries and the Mediterranean Sea. Water and sediment samples were collected in an integrated way at different sampling points covering three different seasons in reaches of the Ebro River located upstream and downstream from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), surrounding channels, estuaries, and the associated receiving seawater. 28 out of the 57 compounds detected in effluent wastewater were positively identified in estuary and seawaters, revealing that WWTP discharges are an important source of contamination in coastal environments and that PhACs are suitable markers of urban contamination in these areas. The substances with the highest frequency of detection belonged to the groups of analgesics/anti-inflammatories (acetaminophen, salicylic acid), antihypertensives (valsartan), psychiatric drugs (carbamazepine), and antibiotics (clarithromycin, trimethoprim). In general, a decrease in concentration was observed from inland sampling points towards the Mediterranean Sea, resulting from a dilution in the recipient marine water bodies. A reduced number of PhACs, at concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 12.5 ng g^-1 dry weight (d.w.) was detected in sediment samples, indicating that sorption is a minor natural attenuation pathway for these compounds. Finally, a prioritization strategy, based on the compounds concentration and frequency of detection in seawater, removal efficiency in WWTP, bioaccumulation potential, toxicity to marine organisms and persistency, was used to highlight the PhACs of major ecological concern and that could be used as relevant indicators of wastewater contamination in coastal environments.

Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat

BACKGROUND

With climate change, mean annual air temperatures are getting hotter and extreme weather events will become more and more common in most parts of the world.

OBJECTIVES

As part of the EU funded project HEAT-SHIELD we conducted a systematic review to summarize the epidemiological evidence of the effects of global warming-related heat exposure on workers' health and productivity.

METHODS

Three separate searches, focused, respectively, on: i) heat-related illness (HRI), cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases; ii) traumatic injuries; and iii) vector-borne diseases or vectors distribution, were conducted in PubMed. EMBASE was also consulted to retrieve relevant studies focused on the health effects of climate change. A fourth search strategy to assess the effects on work productivity was conducted both in PubMed and in the SCOPUS database.

RESULTS

A significant proportion of studies reported findings regarding the Mesoamerican nephropathy issue. This is a disease occurring especially among young and middle-aged male sugarcane workers, without conventional risk factors for chronic kidney disease. For injuries, there is a reversed U-shaped exposure-response relationship between Tmax and overall daily injury claims. Outdoor workers are at increased risk of vector-borne infectious diseases, as a positive correlation between higher air temperatures and current or future expansion of the habitat of vectors is being observed. As for productivity, agriculture and construction are the most studied sectors; a day with temperatures exceeding 32°C can reduce daily labour supply in exposed sectors by up to 14%.

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings should inform development of further research and related health policies in the EU and beyond with regard to protecting working people from the effects of workplace heat during climate change.

Partial-arm translocations in evolution of malaria mosquitoes revealed by high-coverage physical mapping of the Anopheles atroparvus genome

Background

Malaria mosquitoes have had a remarkable stability in the number of chromosomes in their karyotype (2n = 6) during 100 million years of evolution. Moreover, autosomal arms were assumed to maintain their integrity even if their associations with each other changed via whole-arm translocations. Here we use high-coverage comparative physical genome mapping of three Anopheles species to test the extent of evolutionary conservation of chromosomal arms in malaria mosquitoes.

Results

In this study, we developed a physical genome map for Anopheles atroparvus, one of the dominant malaria vectors in Europe. Using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of DNA probes with the ovarian nurse cell polytene chromosomes and synteny comparison, we anchored 56 genomic scaffolds to the An. atroparvus chromosomes. The obtained physical map represents 89.6% of the An. atroparvus genome. This genome has the second highest mapping coverage among Anophelinae assemblies after An. albimanus, which has 98.2% of the genome assigned to its chromosomes. A comparison of the An. atroparvus, An. albimanus, and An. gambiae genomes identified partial-arm translocations between the autosomal arms that break down the integrity of chromosome elements in evolution affecting the structure of the genetic material in the pericentromeric regions. Unlike An. atroparvus and An. albimanus, all chromosome elements of An. gambiae are fully syntenic with chromosome elements of the putative ancestral Anopheles karyotype. We also detected nonrandom distribution of large conserved synteny blocks and confirmed a higher rate of inversion fixation in the X chromosome compared with autosomes.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrates the power of physical mapping for understanding the genome evolution in malaria mosquitoes. The results indicate that syntenic relationships among chromosome elements of Anopheles species have not been fully preserved because of multiple partial-arm translocations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12864-018-4663-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Global Warming and Its Health Impact

Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up as in the case of mosquitoes. Diseases transmitted by mosquitoes include some of the most widespread worldwide illnesses such as malaria and viral diseases. Tick-borne diseases have increased in the past years in cold regions, because rising temperatures accelerate the cycle of development, the production of eggs, and the density and distribution of the tick population. The areas of presence of ticks and diseases that they can transmit have increased, both in terms of geographical extension than in altitude. In the next years the engagement of the health sector would be working to develop prevention and adaptation programs in order to reduce the costs and burden of climate change.

Targeting of blood safety measures to affected areas with ongoing local transmission of malaria

An outbreak of locally acquired Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece started in 2009 and peaked in 2011. Targeting of blood safety measures to affected areas with ongoing transmission of malaria raised questions of how to define spatial boundaries of such an area and when to trigger any specific blood safety measures, including whether and which blood donation screening strategy to apply. To provide scientific advice the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) organised expert meetings in 2013. The outcomes of these consultations are expert opinions covering spatial targeting of blood safety measures to affected areas with ongoing local transmission of malaria and blood donation screening strategy for evidence of malaria infection in these areas. Opinions could help EU national blood safety authorities in developing a preventive strategy during malaria outbreaks.

Predicting factors for malaria re-introduction: an applied model in an elimination setting to prevent malaria outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Malaria re-introduction is a challenge in elimination settings. To prevent re-introduction, receptivity, vulnerability, and health system capacity of foci should be monitored using appropriate tools. This study aimed to design an applicable model to monitor predicting factors of re-introduction of malaria in highly prone areas.

METHODS

This exploratory, descriptive study was conducted in a pre-elimination setting with a high-risk of malaria transmission re-introduction. By using nominal group technique and literature review, a list of predicting indicators for malaria re-introduction and outbreak was defined. Accordingly, a checklist was developed and completed in the field for foci affected by re-introduction and for cleared-up foci as a control group, for a period of 12 weeks before re-introduction and for the same period in the previous year. Using field data and analytic hierarchical process (AHP), each variable and its sub-categories were weighted, and by calculating geometric means for each sub-category, score of corresponding cells of interaction matrices, lower and upper threshold of different risks strata, including low and mild risk of re-introduction and moderate and high risk of malaria outbreaks, were determined. The developed predictive model was calibrated through resampling with different sets of explanatory variables using R software. Sensitivity and specificity of the model were calculated based on new samples.

RESULTS

Twenty explanatory predictive variables of malaria re-introduction were identified and a predictive model was developed. Unpermitted immigrants from endemic neighbouring countries were determined as a pivotal factor (AHP score: 0.181). Moreover, quality of population movement (0.114), following malaria transmission season (0.088), average daily minimum temperature in the previous 8 weeks (0.062), an outdoor resting shelter for vectors (0.045), and rainfall (0.042) were determined. Positive and negative predictive values of the model were 81.8 and 100 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study introduced a new, simple, yet reliable model to forecast malaria re-introduction and outbreaks eight weeks in advance in pre-elimination and elimination settings. The model incorporates comprehensive deterministic factors that can easily be measured in the field, thereby facilitating preventive measures.

A standard photomap of ovarian nurse cell chromosomes in the European malaria vector Anopheles atroparvus

Anopheles atroparvus (Diptera: Culicidae) is one of the main malaria vectors of the Maculipennis group in Europe. Cytogenetic analysis based on salivary gland chromosomes has been used in taxonomic and population genetic studies of mosquitoes from this group. However, a high-resolution cytogenetic map that could be used in physical genome mapping in An. atroparvus is still lacking. In the present study, a high-quality photomap of the polytene chromosomes from ovarian nurse cells of An. atroparvus was developed. Using fluorescent in situ hybridization, 10 genes from the five largest genomic supercontigs on the polytene chromosome were localized and 28% of the genome was anchored to the cytogenetic map. The study established chromosome arm homology between An. atroparvus and the major African malaria vector Anopheles gambiae, suggesting a whole-arm translocation between autosomes of these two species. The standard photomap constructed for ovarian nurse cell chromosomes of An. atroparvus will be useful for routine physical mapping. This map will assist in the development of a fine-scale chromosome-based genome assembly for this species and will also facilitate comparative and evolutionary genomics studies in the genus Anopheles.

Malaria knowledge, attitudes and practices among migrants from malaria-endemic countries in Evrotas, Laconia, Greece, 2013

Following re-emergence of malaria in Evrotas, Laconia, in 2009–12, a malaria-control programme was implemented in 2011–12 targeting migrants from malaria-endemic countries, including house-to-house active case detection, health education and distribution of mosquito protection items. In June 2013, we surveyed migrants in Evrotas to assess their malaria knowledge, attitudes and practices to guide prevention activities. We selected participants using simple random sampling and interviewed them, using structured questionnaires. We defined mosquito protection practices (MPPs) as the use of full-length clothes/topical repellent, mosquito screens, fans or air-conditioning, and insecticides. We calculated prevalence ratios (PRs) using Poisson regression and we allowed for clustering of participants in a residence. Of 654 migrants, we invited 132 and 130 participated (all men; 120 (92%) from Pakistan). Of the 130, 56 (43%) identified fever as a malaria symptom; those who were aware of this had higher level of education (PR: 3.2; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–9.0). A total of 111 (85%) used insecticide-treated bednets and 95 (73%) used more than two MPPs. Poor housing conditions (warehouses/shacks: PR: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.6–0.9), were associated with use of up to two MPPs. Despite extensive interventions in Evrotas, the level of malaria awareness among migrants remained suboptimal and poor housing conditions hindered effective mosquito protection. We recommend culturally adapted health education and improvement of housing conditions to minimise the risk of new cases and re-establishment of malaria in Greece.

Surveillance and response to drive the national malaria elimination program

The national action plan for malaria elimination in China (2010-2020) was issued by the Chinese Ministry of Health along with other 13 ministries and commissions in 2010. The ultimate goal of the national action plan was to eliminate local transmission of malaria by the end of 2020. Surveillance and response are the most important components driving the whole process of the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP), under the technical guidance used in NMEP. This chapter introduces the evolution of the surveillance from the control to the elimination stages and the current structure of national surveillance system in China. When the NMEP launched, both routine surveillance and sentinel surveillance played critical role in monitoring the process of NMEP. In addition, the current response strategy of NMEP was also reviewed, including the generally developed "1-3-7 Strategy". More effective and sensitive risk assessment tools were introduced, which cannot only predict the trends of malaria, but also are important for the design and adjustment of the surveillance and response systems in the malaria elimination stage. Therefore, this review presents the landscape of malaria surveillance and response in China as well as their contribution to the NMEP, with a focus on activities for early detection of malaria cases, timely control of malaria foci and epidemics, and risk prediction. Furthermore, challenges and recommendations for accelerating NMEP through surveillance are put forward.

The burden of imported malaria in Portugal 2003 to 2012

Increasing international travel and expatriation to sub-Saharan countries where malaria is endemic has raised public health concerns about the burden of imported malaria cases in Portugal. From 2009 to 2012, there was a 60% increase in malaria hospitalizations, contradicting the declining trend observed since 2003. Older age was associated with longer length of stay in hospital and higher lethality.

The historical distribution of main malaria foci in Spain as related to water bodies

The possible connectivity between the spatial distribution of water bodies suitable for vectors of malaria and endemic malaria foci in Southern Europe is still not well known. Spain was one of the last countries in Western Europe to be declared free of malaria by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1964. This study combines, by means of a spatial-temporal analysis, the historical data of patients and deceased with the distribution of water bodies where the disease-transmitting mosquitos proliferate. Therefore, data from historical archives with a Geographic Information System (GIS), using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method, was analyzed with the aim of identifying regional differences in the distribution of malaria in Spain. The reasons, why the risk of transmission is concentrated in specific regions, are related to worse socioeconomic conditions (Extremadura), the presence of another vector (Anopheles labranchiae) besides A. atroparvus (Levante) or large areas of water bodies in conditions to reproduce theses vectors (La Mancha and Western Andalusia). In the particular case of Western Andalusia, in 1913, the relatively high percentage of 4.73% of the surface, equal to 202362 ha, corresponds to wetlands and other unhealthy water bodies. These wetlands have been reduced as a result of desiccation policies and climate change such as the Little Ice Age and Global Climate Change. The comprehension of the main factors of these wetland changes in the past can help us interpret accurately the future risk of malaria re-emergence in temperate latitudes, since it reveals the crucial role of unhealthy water bodies on the distribution, endemicity and eradication of malaria in southern Europe.

Global warming will reshuffle the areas of high prevalence and richness of three genera of avian blood parasites

The importance of parasitism for host populations depends on local parasite richness and prevalence: usually host individuals face higher infection risk in areas where parasites are most diverse, and host dispersal to or from these areas may have fitness consequences. Knowing how parasites are and will be distributed in space and time (in a context of global change) is thus crucial from both an ecological and a biological conservation perspective. Nevertheless, most research articles focus just on elaborating models of parasite distribution instead of parasite diversity. We produced distribution models of the areas where haemosporidian parasites are currently highly diverse (both at community and at within-host levels) and prevalent among Iberian populations of a model passerine host: the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla; and how these areas are expected to vary according to three scenarios of climate change. On the basis of these models, we analysed whether variation among populations in parasite richness or prevalence are expected to remain the same or change in the future, thereby reshuffling the geographic mosaic of host-parasite interactions as we observe it today. Our models predict a rearrangement of areas of high prevalence and richness of parasites in the future, with Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites (today the most diverse genera in blackcaps) losing areas of high diversity and Plasmodium parasites (the most virulent ones) gaining them. Likewise, the prevalence of multiple infections and parasite infracommunity richness would be reduced. Importantly, differences among populations in the prevalence and richness of parasites are expected to decrease in the future, creating a more homogeneous parasitic landscape. This predicts an altered geographic mosaic of host-parasite relationships, which will modify the interaction arena in which parasite virulence evolves.

Using mitochondrial genome sequences to track the origin of imported Plasmodium vivax infections diagnosed in the United States

Although the geographic origin of malaria cases imported into the United States can often be inferred from travel histories, these histories may be lacking or incomplete. We hypothesized that mitochondrial haplotypes could provide region-specific molecular barcodes for tracing the origin of imported Plasmodium vivax infections. An analysis of 348 mitochondrial genomes from worldwide parasites and new sequences from 69 imported malaria cases diagnosed across the United States allowed for a geographic assignment of most infections originating from the Americas, southeast Asia, east Asia, and Melanesia. However, mitochondrial lineages from Africa, south Asia, central Asia, and the Middle East, which altogether contribute the vast majority of imported malaria cases in the United States, were closely related to each other and could not be reliably assigned to their geographic origins. More mitochondrial genomes are required to characterize molecular barcodes of P. vivax from these regions.

Epidemiology of malaria in endemic areas

Malaria infection is still to be considered a major public health problem in those 106 countries where the risk of contracting the infection with one or more of the Plasmodium species exists. According to estimates from the World Health Organization, over 200 million cases and about 655.000 deaths have occurred in 2010. Estimating the real health and social burden of the disease is a difficult task, because many of the malaria endemic countries have limited diagnostic resources, especially in rural settings where conditions with similar clinical picture may coexist in the same geographical areas. Moreover, asymptomatic parasitaemia may occur in high transmission areas after childhood, when anti-malaria semi-immunity occurs. Malaria endemicity and control activities are very complex issues, that are influenced by factors related to the host, to the parasite, to the vector, to the environment and to the health system capacity to fully implement available anti-malaria weapons such as rapid diagnostic tests, artemisinin-based combination treatment, impregnated bed-nets and insecticide residual spraying while waiting for an effective vaccine to be made available.

First evidence and predictions of Plasmodium transmission in Alaskan bird populations

The unprecedented rate of change in the Arctic climate is expected to have major impacts on the emergence of infectious diseases and host susceptibility to these diseases. It is predicted that malaria parasites will spread to both higher altitudes and latitudes with global warming. Here we show for the first time that avian Plasmodium transmission occurs in the North American Arctic. Over a latitudinal gradient in Alaska, from 61°N to 67°N, we collected blood samples of resident and migratory bird species. We found both residents and hatch year birds infected with Plasmodium as far north as 64°N, providing clear evidence that malaria transmission occurs in these climates. Based on our empirical data, we make the first projections of the habitat suitability for Plasmodium under a future-warming scenario in Alaska. These findings raise new concerns about the spread of malaria to naïve host populations.

Impact of environmental changes and human-related factors on the potential malaria vector, Anopheles labranchiae (Diptera: Culicidae), in Maremma, Central Italy

The Maremma Plain (central Italy) was hyper-endemic for malaria until the mid-20th century, when a national campaign for malaria elimination drastically reduced the presence of the main vector Anopheles labranchiae Falleroni. However, the introduction of rice cultivation over 30 yr ago has led to an increase in the An. labranchiae population and concern over possible malaria reemergence. We studied the impact of anthropogenic environmental changes on the abundance and distribution of An. labranchiae in Maremma, focusing on rice fields, the main breeding sites. Adults and larvae were collected in three main areas with diverse ecological characteristics. Data were collected on human activity, land use, and seasonal climatic and demographic variations. We also interviewed residents and tourists regarding their knowledge of malaria. Our findings showed that the most important environmental changes have occurred along the coast; An. labranchiae foci are present throughout the area, with massive reproduction strictly related to rice cultivation in coastal areas. Although the abundance of this species has drastically decreased over the past 30 yr, it remains high and, together with climatic conditions and the potential introduction of gametocyte carriers, it may represent a threat for the occurrence of autochthonous malaria cases. Our findings suggest the need for the continuous monitoring of An. labranchiae in the study area. In addition to entomological surveillance, more detailed knowledge of human-induced environmental changes is needed, so as to have a more complete database that can be used for vector-control plans and for properly managing emergencies related to autochthonous introduced cases.

Epidemiology of imported malaria in the mediterranean region

Malaria is one of the most widespread infectious diseases of our time, causing 655 000 deaths during 2010 (WHO), most of them in sub-Saharan Africa and under the age of 5. During the last few years an increasing number of imported malaria cases is reported in Europe and Mediterranean countries, probably supported by the increasing number of international travel in association with the important influx of immigrants from malaria-endemic countries. Moreover, the presence of Anopheline vectors in Mediterranean countries, the returned infected travellers as a source of parasite and climate changes may result in the reappearance of malaria in countries where it was previously eradicated, such as Greece in recent years. Several cases of autochthonous malaria have recently been reported to support the need of an ongoing surveillance for mosquito control and an increased vigilance by health professionals. The aim of this paper is to critically review all the available literature about imported malaria in Mediterranean areas and the potential consequences of this.

Studying relationships between environment and malaria incidence in Camopi (French Guiana) through the objective selection of buffer-based landscape characterisations

Background

Malaria remains a major health problem in French Guiana, with a mean of 3800 cases each year. A previous study in Camopi, an Amerindian village on the Oyapock River, highlighted the major contribution of environmental features to the incidence of malaria attacks. We propose a method for the objective selection of the best multivariate peridomestic landscape characterisation that maximises the chances of identifying relationships between environmental features and malaria incidence, statistically significant and meaningful from an epidemiological point of view.

Methods

A land-cover map, the hydrological network and the geolocalised inhabited houses were used to characterise the peridomestic landscape in eleven discoid buffers with radii of 50, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 900 and 1000 metres. Buffer-based landscape characterisations were first compared in terms of their capacity to discriminate between sites within the geographic space and of their effective multidimensionality in variable space. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was then used to select the landscape model best explaining the incidences of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria. Finally, we calculated Pearson correlation coefficients for the relationships between environmental variables and malaria incidence, by species, for the more relevant buffers.

Results

The optimal buffers for environmental characterisation had radii of 100 m around houses for P. vivax and 400 m around houses for P. falciparum. The incidence of P. falciparum malaria seemed to be more strongly linked to environmental features than that of P. vivax malaria, within these buffers. The incidence of P. falciparum malaria in children was strongly correlated with proportions of bare soil (r = -0.69), land under high vegetation (r = 0.68) and primary forest (r = 0.54), landscape division (r = 0.48) and the number of inhabited houses (r = -0.60). The incidence of P. vivax malaria was associated only with landscape division (r = 0.49).

Conclusions

The proposed methodology provides a simple and general framework for objective characterisation of the landscape to account for field observations. The use of this method enabled us to identify different optimal observation horizons around houses, depending on the Plasmodium species considered, and to demonstrate significant correlations between environmental features and the incidence of malaria.

Travel-related imported infections in Europe, EuroTravNet 2009

The aim of this study was to investigate travel-associated morbidity in European travellers in 2009 in comparison with 2008, with a particular emphasis on emerging infectious diseases with the potential for introduction into Europe. Diagnoses with demographic, clinical and travel-related predictors of disease from ill returning travelers presenting to 12 core EuroTravNet sites from January to December 2009 were analysed. A total of 6392 patients were seen at EuroTravNet core sites in 2009, as compared with 6957 in 2008. As compared with 2008, there was a marked increase in the number of travellers exposed in North America and western Europe. Respiratory illnesses, in particular pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, influenza-like syndromes, and tuberculosis, were also observed more frequently. A significant increase in reported dengue cases in 2009 as compared with 2008 was observed (n = 172, 2.7% vs. n = 131, 1.90%) (p 0.002). The numbers of malaria and chikungunya cases were also increasing, although not significantly. Two deaths were recorded: visceral leishmaniasis and sepsis in a Sudanese migrant, and Acinetobacter sp. pneumonia in a patient who had visited Spain. This is the most comprehensive study of travel-related illness in Europe in 2009 as compared with 2008. A significant increase in travel-related respiratory and vector-borne infections was observed, highlighting the potential risk for introduction of these diseases into Europe, where competent vectors are present. The number of traveller deaths is probably underestimated. The possible role of the travellers in the emergence of infectious diseases of public health concern is highlighted.

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in Africa, Europe and the Middle East: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

Background

This is the second in a series of three articles documenting the geographical distribution of 41 dominant vector species (DVS) of human malaria. The first paper addressed the DVS of the Americas and the third will consider those of the Asian Pacific Region. Here, the DVS of Africa, Europe and the Middle East are discussed. The continent of Africa experiences the bulk of the global malaria burden due in part to the presence of the An. gambiae complex. Anopheles gambiae is one of four DVS within the An. gambiae complex, the others being An. arabiensis and the coastal An. merus and An. melas. There are a further three, highly anthropophilic DVS in Africa, An. funestus, An. moucheti and An. nili. Conversely, across Europe and the Middle East, malaria transmission is low and frequently absent, despite the presence of six DVS. To help control malaria in Africa and the Middle East, or to identify the risk of its re-emergence in Europe, the contemporary distribution and bionomics of the relevant DVS are needed.

Results

A contemporary database of occurrence data, compiled from the formal literature and other relevant resources, resulted in the collation of information for seven DVS from 44 countries in Africa containing 4234 geo-referenced, independent sites. In Europe and the Middle East, six DVS were identified from 2784 geo-referenced sites across 49 countries. These occurrence data were combined with expert opinion ranges and a suite of environmental and climatic variables of relevance to anopheline ecology to produce predictive distribution maps using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) method.

Conclusions

The predicted geographic extent for the following DVS (or species/suspected species complex*) is provided for Africa: Anopheles (Cellia) arabiensis, An. (Cel.) funestus*, An. (Cel.) gambiae, An. (Cel.) melas, An. (Cel.) merus, An. (Cel.) moucheti and An. (Cel.) nili*, and in the European and Middle Eastern Region: An. (Anopheles) atroparvus, An. (Ano.) labranchiae, An. (Ano.) messeae, An. (Ano.) sacharovi, An. (Cel.) sergentii and An. (Cel.) superpictus*. These maps are presented alongside a bionomics summary for each species relevant to its control.