An expert assessment on climate change and health - with a European focus on lungs and allergies

Where to Go or Where Not to Go—A Method for Advising Communities during Extreme Temperatures

Climate change is producing more extremes and increasing the number and magnitude of risks that impact people’s lives, so identifying and understanding local climate risks is a long but essential process for defining adaptation strategies. The availability of technologies to sensitize and educate people about risks, and to assist people with becoming active observers and monitors of climatic elements has helped to promote permanent surveillance and proactive attitudes towards climatic phenomena that lead to undesirable risks. This paper proposes a methodological approach to guide citizens moving around the city when extreme temperatures occur, minimizing climatic risks and negative health comes, using a very simple method based on Landsat 8 temperature data images at a subsection spatial scale level. The results obtained indicate the places of higher extreme temperatures risks, as well as some of the potential places that people can use to protect themselves. This work demonstrates the value of mapping climatic factors at a local scale and deliver tailored and accurate maps with the places suitable for alleviating bioclimatic stresses and the places that should be avoided.

Different sensitivities to ambient temperature between first- and re-admission childhood asthma cases in Hong Kong - A time series study

OBJECTIVES

Asthma can be triggered by various factors due to different etiologies. Environmental factors remain a common trigger of asthma, especially amongst children, and such ambient exposures can be harder to avoid compared to behavioral triggers. As such, the contribution of environmental factors may be enhanced when considering repeat asthma cases compared to initial presentations. To test this hypothesis, we assessed associations between ambient temperature and hospital admissions for asthma in Hong Kong and stratified admission records into first and repeat asthma hospitalizations.

METHODS

The daily number of asthma hospitalizations among children aged 0-5 years in Hong Kong during 2007-2011 was regressed on daily mean temperature using distributed lagged nonlinear models, with adjustment for seasonal patterns, day-of-week effects, and other meteorological factors and air-pollutants. Analyses were stratified by summer/winter and by type of admission (first admission and repeated admission).

RESULTS

About 33% of the 12284 asthma hospitalizations were repeat admissions. Repeat admissions demonstrated higher sensitivity to high temperature in the summer. During this period, high temperatures were associated with increased risk of repeat admission but not with first admissions: RR (95% CI) comparing 31 °C vs. 29 °C across lags 0-15 days was 3.40 (1.26, 9.18) and 0.74 (0.31, 1.77) for repeat and first admissions respectively. In the cold season, all admissions increased with falls in temperature, with slightly stronger associations apparent for repeat admissions compared to first admission: 1.20 (1.00, 1.44) vs. 1.10 (0.96, 1.26) respectively comparing risk at 15 °C vs. 12 °C across lags 0-5 days.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study to show stronger associations between ambient temperature and repeat asthma admissions compared to first admissions. The higher sensitivity among those experiencing repeat admissions may allow for more personalized disease management. Given the substantial differences in associations by admission type, future studies of ambient exposures on asthma should consider analyzing the two groups separately.

Synergistic Environmental Exposures and the Airways Capturing Complexity in Humans: An Underappreciated World of Complex Exposures

Paradoxically, the vast majority of research models intended to understand the relationship between exogenous exposures and lung disease are reduced to a single inhalant. This approach is understandable given the practical challenges of investigation, but it is problematic in terms of translation to the real-world human condition. Furthermore, use of data from such models can lead to underestimation of effect, which may adversely influence regulatory imperatives to protect public health based on the most robust information. Efforts to incrementally introduce layers of complexity to observational and experimental systems have revealed pathophysiology previously "hidden" within simplified models. Capturing the effects of co-exposure to traffic-related air pollution and allergens is a paradigmatic example and illustrates the influence of co-exposures across a plethora of clinical and subclinical end points within the respiratory tract. From DNA methylation in the epithelium, to inflammatory mediators and allergen-specific antibodies in the airway, to airflow limitation and symptoms, the addition of a common second exposure induces profound changes. In addition, genetic variation significantly alters the product of these relationships, and capturing multidimensional interactions may reveal susceptible populations who are particularly affected by these exposures and may merit focused measures for protection. Collectively, better modeling, and ultimately deeper knowledge, of these complex relationships has important implications for personalized health and prevention, development and refinement of pharmacologic agents, and public health responses to climate change and the staggering burden of pollution-driven disease worldwide.

Respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis, weather conditions and air pollution in an Italian urban area: An observational study

BACKGROUND

In this study we sought to evaluate the association between viral bronchiolitis, weather conditions, and air pollution in an urban area in Italy.

METHODS

We included infants hospitalized for acute bronchiolitis from 2004 to 2014. All infants underwent a nasal washing for virus detection. A regional agency network collected meteorological data (mean temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity) and the following air pollutants: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, ozone, benzene and suspended particulate matter measuring less than 10µm (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5µm (PM_2.5) in aerodynamic diameter. We obtained mean weekly concentration data for the day of admission, from the urban background monitoring sites nearest to each child's home address. Overdispersed Poisson regression model was fitted and adjusted for seasonality of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, to evaluate the impact of individual characteristics and environmental factors on the probability of a being positive RSV.

RESULTS

Of the 723 nasal washings from the infants enrolled, 266 (68%) contained RSV, 63 (16.1%) rhinovirus, 26 (6.6%) human bocavirus, 20 (5.1%) human metapneumovirus, and 16 (2.2%) other viruses. The number of RSV-positive infants correlated negatively with temperature (p < 0.001), and positively with relative humidity (p < 0.001). Air pollutant concentrations differed significantly during the peak RSV months and the other months. Benzene concentration was independently associated with RSV incidence (p = 0.0124).

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonal weather conditions and concentration of air pollutants seem to influence RSV-related bronchiolitis epidemics in an Italian urban area.

Expert assessment of the resilience of drinking water and sanitation systems to climate-related hazards

We conducted an expert assessment to obtain expert opinions on the relative global resilience of ten drinking water and five sanitation technologies to the following six climate-related hazards: drought, decreased inter-annual precipitation, flood, superstorm flood, wind damage, and saline intrusion. Resilience scores ranged from 1.7 to 9.9 out of a maximum resilience of 10, with high scores corresponding to high resilience. We find that for some climate-related hazards, such as drought, technologies demonstrated a large range in resilience, indicating that the choice of water and sanitation technologies is important for areas prone to drought. On the other hand, the range of resilience scores for superstorm flooding was much smaller, particularly for sanitation technologies, suggesting that the choice of technology is less of a determinant of functionality for superstorm flooding as compared to other climate-related hazards. For drinking water technologies, only treated piped utility-managed systems that use surface water had resilience scores >6.0 for all hazards, while protected dug wells were found to be one of the least resilient technologies, consistently scoring <5.0 for all hazards except wind damage. In general, sanitation technologies were found to have low to medium resilience, suggesting that sanitation systems need to be adapted to ensure functionality during and after climate-related hazards. The results of the study can be used to help communities decide which technologies are best suited for the climate-related challenges they face and help in future adaptation planning.

The short-term association between asthma hospitalisations, ambient temperature, other meteorological factors and air pollutants in Hong Kong: a time-series study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have found associations between meteorological variables and asthma hospitalisations but the nature of these associations has varied and few studies have been done in subtropical areas or evaluated effect modification by age.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate associations between asthma hospitalisations and meteorological factors and to assess effect modification of these associations by age and season in Hong Kong.

METHODS

Poisson generalised additive models combined with distributed lag nonlinear models and piecewise linear models were used to model associations between daily asthma hospitalisations from 2004 to 2011 and meteorological factors and air pollutants, adjusting for day of week, seasonality and trend. Subgroup analyses by age and season were performed.

RESULTS

In the hot season, hospitalisations were lowest at 27°C, rose to a peak at 30°C, then plateaued between 30°C and 32°C. The cumulative relative risk for lags 0-3 days (RRlag0-3) for 30°C vs 27°C was 1.19 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.34). In the cold season, temperature was negatively associated with asthma hospitalisations. The cumulative RRlag0-3 for 12°C vs 25°C was 1.33 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.58). Adult admissions were most sensitive to temperatures in both seasons while admissions among children under 5 were least associated. Higher humidity and ozone levels in the hot season, and low humidity in the cold season were also associated with more asthma admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

People with asthma should avoid exposure to adverse conditions by limiting outdoor activities during periods of extreme temperatures, combinations of high humidity and high temperature, and low humidity and low temperature, and high ozone levels.

Ambient air pollution, weather changes, and outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis: A retrospective registry study

Allergic conjunctivitis is a common problem that significantly impairs patients’ quality of life. Whether air pollution serves as a risk factor for the development of allergic conjunctivitis remains elusive. In this paper, we assess the relationship between air pollutants and weather conditions with outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis. By using a time-series analysis based on the largest dataset ever assembled to date, we found that the number of outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis was significantly correlated with the levels of NO₂, O₃, and temperature, while its association with humidity was statistically marginal. No associations between PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂, or wind velocity and outpatient visits were seen. Subgroup analyses showed that sex seemed to modify the effects of humidity on outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis, but not for NO₂, O₃, or temperature. People younger than 40 were found to be susceptible to changes of all four parameters, while those older than 40 were only consistently affected by NO₂ levels. Our findings revealed that higher levels of ambient NO₂, O₃, and temperature increase the chances of outpatient visits for allergic conjunctivitis. Ambient air pollution and weather changes may contribute to the worsening of allergic conjunctivitis.

The Effects of Climate Change on Patients With Chronic Lung Disease. A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Ever since higher overall mortality rates due to heat stress were reported during the European heat waves of 2003 and 2006, the relation between heat waves and disease-specific events has been an object of scientific study. The effects of heat waves on the morbidity and mortality of persons with chronic lung disease remain unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search using PubMed, the Cochrane Library, and Google Advanced Search to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2015. The reference lists of the primarily included articles were searched for further pertinent articles. All articles were selected according to the PRISMA guidelines. The heat-wave-related relative excess mortality was descriptively expressed as a mean daily rate ratio ([incidence 1]/[incidence 2]), and the cumulative excess risk (CER) was expressed in percent.

RESULTS

33 studies with evaluable raw data concerning the effect of heat waves on patients with chronic lung disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, bronchial asthma, pulmonary arterial hypertension, and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis) were analyzed in this review. By deriving statistics from the overall data set, we arrived at the conclusion that future heat waves will-with at least 90% probability-result in a mean daily excess mortality (expressed as a rate ratio) of at least 1.018, and-with 50% probability-in a mean daily excess mortality of at least 1.028. These figures correspond, respectively, to 1.8% and 2.8% rises in the daily risk of death.

CONCLUSION

Heat waves significantly increase morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic lung disease. The argument that the excess mortality during heat waves is compensated for by a decrease in mortality in the subsequent weeks/months (mortality displacement) should not be used as an excuse for delay in implementing adaptive strategies to protect lung patients from this risk to their health.

Systematic review of expert elicitation methods as a tool for source attribution of enteric illness

Expert elicitation is a useful tool to explore sources of uncertainty and to answer questions where data are expensive or difficult to collect. It has been used across a variety of disciplines and represents an important method for estimating source attribution for enteric illness. A systematic review was undertaken to explore published expert elicitation studies, identify key considerations, and to make recommendations for designing an expert elicitation in the context of enteric illness source attribution. Fifty-nine studies were reviewed. Five key themes were identified: the expert panel including composition and recruitment; the pre-elicitation material, which clarifies the research question and provides training in uncertainty and probability; the choice of elicitation tool and method (e.g., questionnaires, surveys, and interviews); research design; and analysis of elicited data. Careful consideration of these themes is critical in designing and implementing an expert elicitation in order to reduce bias and produce the best possible results. While there are various epidemiological and microbiological methods available to explore source attribution of enteric illness, expert elicitation provides an opportunity to identify gaps in our understanding and where such studies are not feasible or available, represents the only possible method for synthesizing knowledge about transmission.

Climate change primer for respirologists

Climate change is already affecting the cardiorespiratory health of populations around the world, and these impacts are expected to increase. The present overview serves as a primer for respirologists who are concerned about how these profound environmental changes may affect their patients. The authors consider recent peer-reviewed literature with a focus on climate interactions with air pollution. They do not discuss in detail cardiorespiratory health effects for which the potential link to climate change is poorly understood. For example, pneumonia and influenza, which affect >500 million people per year, are not addressed, although clear seasonal variation suggests climate-related effects. Additionally, large global health impacts in low-resource countries, including migration precipitated by environmental change, are omitted. The major cardiorespiratory health impacts addressed are due to heat, air pollution and wildfires, shifts in allergens and infectious diseases along with respiratory impacts from flooding. Personal and societal choices about carbon use and fossil energy infrastructure should be informed by their impacts on health, and respirologists can play an important role in this discussion.

The impact of climate change on infectious disease transmission: perceptions of CDC health professionals in Shanxi Province, China

There have been increasing concerns about the challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change, especially in developing countries including China. Health professionals play a significant role in the battle to control and prevent infectious diseases. This study therefore aims to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of health professionals at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in different levels in China, and to consider adaptation measures to deal with the challenge of climate change. In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 staff in CDCs in Shanxi Province, China, whose routine work involves disease control and prevention. Data were analyzed using descriptive methods and logistic regression. A majority of the CDC staff were aware of the health risks from climate change, especially its impacts on infectious disease transmission in their jurisdictions, and believed climate change might bring about both temporal and spatial change in transmission patterns. It was thought that adaptation measures should be established including: strengthening/improving currently existing disease surveillance systems and vector monitoring; building CDC capacity in terms of infrastructure and in-house health professional training; development and refinement of relevant legislation, policies and guidelines; better coordination among various government departments; the involvement of the community in infectious disease interventions; and collaborative research with other institutions. This study provides a snapshot of the understanding of CDC staff regarding climate change risks relevant to infectious diseases and adaptation in China. Results may help inform future efforts to develop adaptation measures to minimize infectious disease risks due to climate change.

Climate change and respiratory health: current evidence and knowledge gaps

Climate change is a key driver of the accelerating environmental change affecting populations around the world. Many of these changes and our response to them can affect respiratory health. This is an expert opinion review of recent peer-reviewed literature, focused on more recent medical journals and climate-health relevant modeling results from non-biomedical journals pertaining to climate interactions with air pollution. Global health impacts in low resource countries and migration precipitated by environmental change are addressed. The major findings are of respiratory health effects related to heat, air pollution, shifts in infectious diseases and allergens, flooding, water, food security and migration. The review concludes with knowledge gaps and research need that will support the evidence-base required to address the challenges ahead.

Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada.

METHODS

A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was developed. Total scores for each indicator were calculated based on the rating scale.

RESULTS

A total of 77 health indicators were identified from the literature. After evaluation using the chosen criteria, 8 indicators were identified as the best for use. They include excess daily all-cause mortality due to heat, premature deaths due to air pollution (ozone and particulate matter 2.5), preventable deaths from climate change, disability-adjusted life years lost from climate change, daily all-cause mortality, daily non-accidental mortality, West Nile Disease incidence, and Lyme borreliosis incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

There is need for further data and research related to health effect quantification in the area of climate change.

Heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in Europe in a changing climate: a health impact assessment

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory diseases are ranked second in Europe in terms of mortality, prevalence and costs. Studies have shown that extreme heat has a large impact on mortality and morbidity, with a large relative increase for respiratory diseases. Expected increases in mean temperature and the number of extreme heat events over the coming decades due to climate change raise questions about the possible health impacts. We assess the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in a future with a different climate.

DESIGN

A Europe-wide health impact assessment.

SETTING

An assessment for each of the EU27 countries.

METHODS

Heat-related hospital admissions under a changing climate are projected using multicity epidemiological exposure-response relationships applied to gridded population data and country-specific baseline respiratory hospital admission rates. Times-series of temperatures are simulated with a regional climate model based on four global climate models, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

RESULTS

Between a reference period (1981-2010) and a future period (2021-2050), the total number of respiratory hospital admissions attributed to heat is projected to be larger in southern Europe, with three times more heat attributed respiratory hospital admissions in the future period. The smallest change was estimated in Eastern Europe with about a twofold increase. For all of Europe, the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions is projected to be 26 000 annually in the future period compared with 11 000 in the reference period.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that the projected effects of climate change on temperature and the number of extreme heat events could substantially influence respiratory morbidity across Europe.

Health risks of climate change: an assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

BACKGROUND

Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies.

METHODS

We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies.

RESULTS

The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation.

CONCLUSIONS

For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health effects for which rough risk estimates are available, 'robust decision-making' is recommended. For health effects with limited societal and policy relevance, we recommend focusing on no-regret measures. For highly relevant health effects, precautionary measures can be considered. This study indicated that analysing and characterising uncertainty by means of a typology can be a very useful approach for selection and prioritization of preferred adaptation policies to reduce future climate related health risks.

Application of social media in the environment and health professional community

The purpose of the EU FP6 funded coordination action HENVINET was to create a permanent network of environment and health professionals. The main outcome is a networking portal (http://www.henvinet.eu), based on the concepts of social media to support communication between professional stakeholders in the environment and health fields. Its aim is to enable sharing of relevant information in an innovative and interactive manner to eventually support policy making. A social networking tool is not necessarily a typical platform for communication in the professional context, or between scientists and decision-makers. The aim of this paper is to look upon the use of social media in relevant professional communities in the light of the HENVINET experience, and to reflect on the acceptance and usefulness of such a new approach. The portal was designed over the course of HENVINET through intensive interactions by a multi-disciplinary group, involving environmental as well as health scientists, but with only limited access to decision-makers' opinions. After the social networking portal was launched, a recruitment campaign was run during the last six months of the project, taking every opportunity to present the portal and to get feedback from users. This feedback was used to improve the functionalities of the tool. Additionally, a feedback session was organized at the final event of the project, attended by over 50 professionals, about half of whom participated from the beginning in the entire HENVINET project. We have also compared the HENVINET portal with similar tools employed by other related communities, and made a literature-based survey on the use of social media for scientific communication. At the end of the project, the portal had more than 300 members with registered professional profile, over 10 topics and 15 discussion groups. The HENVINET consortium members were the most active group of users. The quality of the portal content was considered more important than having a large amount of information. To maintain the content, the majority of the participants declared their willingness to use their time, stating however that dedicated content providers would be also necessary. In theory, professionals see the value of such a tool, and are willing to contribute. Only time will tell if the tool is viable in the long run.

How can scientists bring research to use: the HENVINET experience

BACKGROUND

Health concerns have driven the European environmental policies of the last 25 years, with issues becoming more complex. Addressing these concerns requires an approach that is both interdisciplinary and engages scientists with society. In response to this requirement, the FP6 coordination action "Health and Environment Network" HENVINET was set up to create a permanent inter-disciplinary network of professionals in the field of health and environment tasked to bridge the communication gap between science and society. In this paper we describe how HENVINET delivered on this task.

METHODS

The HENVINET project approached the issue of inter-disciplinary collaboration in four ways. (1) The Drivers-Pressures-State-Exposure-Effect-Action framework was used to structure information gathering, collaboration and communication between scientists in the field of health and the environment. (2) Interactive web-based tools were developed to enhance methods for knowledge evaluation, and use these methods to formulate policy advice. (3) Quantification methods were adapted to measure scientific agreement. And (4) Open architecture web technology was used to develop an information repository and a web portal to facilitate collaboration and communication among scientists.

RESULTS

Twenty-five organizations from Europe and five from outside Europe participated in the Health and Environment Network HENVINET, which lasted for 3.5 years. The consortium included partners in environmental research, public health and veterinary medicine; included medical practitioners and representatives of local administrations; and had access to national policy making and EEA and WHO expertise. Dedicated web-based tools for visualisation of environmental health issues and knowledge evaluation allowed remote expert elicitation, and were used as a basis for developing policy advice in five health areas (asthma and allergies; cancer; neurodevelopmental disorders; endocrine disruption; and engineered nanoparticles in the environment). An open searchable database of decision support tools was established and populated. A web based social networking tool was developed to enhance collaboration and communication between scientists and society.

CONCLUSIONS

HENVINET addressed key issues that arise in inter-disciplinary research on health and environment and in communicating research results to policy makers and society. HENVINET went beyond traditional scientific tools and methods to bridge the communication gap between science and policy makers. The project identified the need for a common framework and delivered it. It developed and implemented a variety of novel methods and tools and, using several representative examples, demonstrated the process of producing politically relevant scientific advice based on an open participation of experts. It highlighted the need for, and benefits of, a liaison between health and environment professionals and professionals in the social sciences and liberal arts. By adopting critical complexity thinking, HENVINET extended the traditional approach to environment and health research, and set the standard for current approaches to bridge the gap between science and society.