Environmental conditions and Puumala virus transmission in Belgium

High-resolution early warning system for human Puumala hantavirus infection risk in Germany

The fluctuation of human infections by the Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in Germany has been linked to weather and phenology parameters that drive the population growth of its host species. We quantified the annual PUUV-outbreaks at the district level by binarizing the reported infections in the period 2006-2021. With these labels we trained a model based on a support vector machine classifier for predicting local outbreaks and incidence well in advance. The feature selection for the optimal model was performed by a heuristic method and identified five monthly weather variables from the previous two years plus the beech flowering intensity of the previous year. The predictive power of the optimal model was assessed by a leave-one-out cross-validation in 16 years that led to an 82.8% accuracy for the outbreak and a 0.457 coefficient of determination for the incidence. Prediction risk maps for the entire endemic area in Germany will be annually available on a freely-accessible permanent online platform of the German Environment Agency. The model correctly identified 2022 as a year with low outbreak risk, whereas its prediction for large-scale high outbreak risk in 2023 was not confirmed.

Puumala orthohantavirus circulation in its wild reservoir, the bank vole, during the 2021 outbreak of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jura, France

OBJECTIVE

A large and unprecedented outbreak of an attenuated form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome called nephropathia epidemica (NE) and caused by Puumala virus (PUUV) occurred in 2021 in the southern Jura Mountains (France) leading to numerous hospitalizations. The aim of this study was to investigate the circulation of PUUV in its animal reservoir at the time of this outbreak.

METHODS

We conjointly surveyed bank vole relative abundance, small mammal community composition, and PUUV circulation in bank voles (seroprevalence and genetic diversity) in the Jura NE epidemic area, between 2020 and 2022.

RESULTS

Trapping results showed a higher relative abundance of bank voles in 2021 compared to 2020 and 2022. Extremely high levels of PUUV seroprevalence in bank voles were found at the time of the human NE epidemic with seropositive animals trapped in almost all trap lines as of spring 2021. Genetic analyses of PUUV (S segment) gathered in 2021 at two sampling sites revealed a strong clustering of these strains within the "Jura" clade. No significant genetic variation was detected compared to what was already known to be circulating in the Jura region.

CONCLUSION

These results underline a need for enhanced monitoring of PUUV circulation in host reservoir populations in NE endemic areas. This would enable the relevant actors to better inform and sensitize the public on this zoonotic risk, and to implement prevention strategies in collaboration with physicians.

The impact of wildlife and environmental factors on hantavirus infection in the host and its translation into human risk

Identifying factors that drive infection dynamics in reservoir host populations is essential in understanding human risk from wildlife-originated zoonoses. We studied zoonotic Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in the host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), populations in relation to the host population, rodent and predator community and environment-related factors and whether these processes are translated into human infection incidence. We used 5-year rodent trapping and bank vole PUUV serology data collected from 30 sites located in 24 municipalities in Finland. We found that PUUV seroprevalence in the host was negatively associated with the abundance of red foxes, but this process did not translate into human disease incidence, which showed no association with PUUV seroprevalence. The abundance of weasels, the proportion of juvenile bank voles in the host populations and rodent species diversity were negatively associated with the abundance index of PUUV positive bank voles, which, in turn, showed a positive association with human disease incidence. Our results suggest certain predators, a high proportion of young bank vole individuals, and a diverse rodent community, may reduce PUUV risk for humans through their negative impacts on the abundance of infected bank voles.

Meteorological change and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in China, 2004-2018

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), caused by hantavirus, is a serious public health problem in China. Despite intensive countermeasures including Patriotic Health Campaign, rodent control and vaccination in affected areas, HFRS is still a potential public health threat in China, with more than 10,000 new cases per year. Previous epidemiological evidence suggested that meteorological factors could influence HFRS incidence, but the studies were mainly limited to a specific city or region in China. This study aims to evaluate the association between monthly HFRS cases and meteorological change at the country level using a multivariate distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) from 2004 to 2018. The results from both univariate and multivariate models showed a non-linear cumulative relative risk relationship between meteorological factors (with a lag of 0-6 months) such as mean temperature (Tmean), precipitation, relative humidity (RH), sunshine hour (SH), wind speed (WS) and HFRS incidence. The risk for HFRS cases increased steeply as the Tmean between - 23 and 14.79 °C, SH between 179.4 and 278.4 h and RH remaining above 69% with 50-95 mm precipitation and 1.70-2.00 m/s WS. In conclusion, meteorological factors such as Tmean and RH showed delayed-effects on the increased risk of HFRS in the study and the lag varies across climate factors. Temperature with a lag of 6 months (RR = 3.05) and precipitation with a lag of 0 months (RR = 2.08) had the greatest impact on the incidence of HFRS.

Impact of Landscape on Host-Parasite Genetic Diversity and Distribution Using the Puumala orthohantavirus-Bank Vole System

In nature, host specificity has a strong impact on the parasite's distribution, prevalence, and genetic diversity. The host's population dynamics is expected to shape the distribution of host-specific parasites. In turn, the parasite's genetic structure is predicted to mirror that of the host. Here, we study the tandem Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV)-bank vole system. The genetic diversity of 310 bank voles and 33 PUUV isolates from 10 characterized localities of Northeast France was assessed. Our findings show that the genetic diversity of both PUUV and voles, was positively correlated with forest coverage and contiguity of habitats. While the genetic diversity of voles was weakly structured in space, that of PUUV was found to be strongly structured, suggesting that the dispersion of voles was not sufficient to ensure a broad PUUV dissemination. Genetic diversity of PUUV was mainly shaped by purifying selection. Genetic drift and extinction events were better reflected than local adaptation of PUUV. These contrasting patterns of microevolution have important consequences for the understanding of PUUV distribution and epidemiology.

Why Hantavirus Prevalence Does Not Always Increase With Host Density: Modeling the Role of Host Spatial Behavior and Maternal Antibodies

For wildlife diseases, one often relies on host density to predict host infection prevalence and the subsequent force of infection to humans in the case of zoonoses. Indeed, if transmission is mainly indirect, i.e., by way of the environment, the force of infection is expected to increase with host density, yet the laborious field data supporting this theoretical claim are often absent. Hantaviruses are among those zoonoses that have been studied extensively over the past decades, as they pose a significant threat to humans. In Europe, the most widespread hantavirus is the Puumala virus (PUUV), which is carried by the bank vole and causes nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans. Extensive field campaigns have been carried out in Central Finland to shed light on this supposed relationship between bank vole density and PUUV prevalence and to identify other drivers for the infection dynamics. This resulted in the surprising observation that the relationship between bank vole density and PUUV prevalence is not purely monotonic on an annual basis, contrary to what previous models predicted: a higher vole density does not necessary result in a higher infection prevalence, nor in an increased number of humans reported having NE. Here, we advance a novel individual-based spatially-explicit model which takes into account the immunity provided by maternal antibodies and which simulates the spatial behavior of the host, both possible causes for this discrepancy that were not accounted for in previous models. We show that the reduced prevalence in peak years can be attributed to transient immunity, and that the density-dependent spatial vole behavior, i.e., the fact that home ranges are smaller in high density years, plays only a minor role. The applicability of the model is not limited to the study and prediction of PUUV (and NE) occurrence in Europe, as it could be easily adapted to model other rodent-borne diseases, either with indirect or direct transmission.

Detection and Genetic Characterization of Puumala Orthohantavirus S-Segment in Areas of France Non-Endemic for Nephropathia Epidemica

Puumala virus (PUUV) in Europe causes nephropathia epidemica (NE), a mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). The incidence of NE is highly heterogeneous spatially, whereas the geographic distribution of the wild reservoir of PUUV, the bank vole, is essentially homogeneous. Our understanding of the processes driving this heterogeneity remains incomplete due to gaps in knowledge. Little is known about the current distribution and genetic variation of PUUV in the areas outside the well-identified zones of NE endemicity. We trapped bank voles in four forests in French regions in which NE is considered non-endemic, but sporadic NE cases have been reported recently. We tested bank voles for anti-PUUV IgG and characterized the S segment sequences of PUUV from seropositive animals. Phylogenetic analyses revealed specific amino-acid signatures and genetic differences between PUUV circulating in non-endemic and nearby NE-endemic areas. We also showed, in temporal surveys, that the amino-acid sequences of PUUV had undergone fewer recent changes in areas non-endemic for NE than in endemic areas. The evolutionary history of the current French PUUV clusters was investigated by phylogeographic approaches, and the results were considered in the context of the history of French forests. Our findings highlight the need to monitor the circulation and genetics of PUUV in a larger array of bank vole populations, to improve our understanding of the risk of NE.

Geographical Distribution of Ljungan Virus in Small Mammals in Europe

Ljungan virus (LV), which belongs to the Parechovirus genus in the Picornaviridae family, was first isolated from bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in Sweden in 1998 and proposed as a zoonotic agent. To improve knowledge of the host association and geographical distribution of LV, tissues from 1685 animals belonging to multiple rodent and insectivore species from 12 European countries were screened for LV-RNA using reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR. In addition, we investigated how the prevalence of LV-RNA in bank voles is associated with various intrinsic and extrinsic factors. We show that LV is widespread geographically, having been detected in at least one host species in nine European countries. Twelve out of 21 species screened were LV-RNA PCR positive, including, for the first time, the red vole (Myodes rutilus) and the root or tundra vole (Alexandromys formerly Microtus oeconomus), as well as in insectivores, including the bicolored white-toothed shrew (Crocidura leucodon) and the Valais shrew (Sorex antinorii). Results indicated that bank voles are the main rodent host for this virus (overall RT-PCR prevalence: 15.2%). Linear modeling of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that could impact LV prevalence showed a concave-down relationship between body mass and LV occurrence, so that subadults had the highest LV positivity, but LV in older animals was less prevalent. Also, LV prevalence was higher in autumn and lower in spring, and the amount of precipitation recorded during the 6 months preceding the trapping date was negatively correlated with the presence of the virus. Phylogenetic analysis on the 185 base pair species-specific sequence of the 5' untranslated region identified high genetic diversity (46.5%) between 80 haplotypes, although no geographical or host-specific patterns of diversity were detected.

Three arenaviruses in three subspecific natal multimammate mouse taxa in Tanzania: same host specificity, but different spatial genetic structure?

Mastomys natalensis is widespread in sub-Saharan Africa and hosts several arenavirus species, including the pathogenic zoonotic Lassa virus in West Africa. Mitochondrial lineages sub-divide the range of M. natalensis and have been associated with cryptic structure within the species. To test specificity of arenaviruses to hosts carrying these lineages, we screened 1772 M. natalensis in a large area of Tanzania where three mitochondrial lineages meet. We detected fifty-two individuals that were positive for one of three arenaviruses: Gairo, Morogoro, and Luna virus. This is the first record of Luna virus in Tanzania. We confirmed the specificity of each arenavirus to a distinct host mitochondrial lineage except for three cases in one locality at the centre of a host hybrid zone. No arenaviruses were detected in a large part of the study area. Morogoro and Gairo virus showed differences in prevalence (Morogoro virus lower than Gairo virus) and in genetic structure (Morogoro virus more structured than Gairo virus). However, both viruses have genetic neighbourhood size estimates of the same order of magnitude as Lassa virus. While differences in arenavirus and/or host evolutionary and ecological dynamics may exist, Tanzanian arenaviruses could be suited to model Lassa virus dynamics in M. natalensis.

A 19 Year Analysis of Small Mammals Associated with Human Hantavirus Cases in Chile

Small mammals present in areas where hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) cases had occurred in central and southern Chile were captured and analyzed to evaluate the abundance of rodents and seroprevalence rates of antibodies to Andes orthohantavirus (ANDV). Sampling areas ranged from the Coquimbo to Aysén regions (30–45° S approx.) regions. Ninety-two sites in peridomestic and countryside areas were evaluated in 19 years of sampling. An antibody against ANDV was detected by strip immunoassay in 58 of 1847 specimens captured using Sherman traps. Of the eleven species of rodents sampled, Abrothrix olivacea, Oligoryzomys longicaudatus and Abrothrix hirta were the most frequently trapped. O. longicaudatus had the highest seropositivity rate, and by logistic regression analysis, O. longicaudatus of at least 60 g had 80% or higher probability to be seropositive. Sex, age and wounds were significantly related to seropositivity only for O. longicaudatus. Across administrative regions, the highest seropositivity was found in the El Maule region (34.8–36.2° S), and the highest number of HCPS cases was registered in the Aysén region. Our results highlight the importance of long term and geographically extended studies, particularly for highly fluctuating pathogens and their reservoirs, to understand the implications of the dynamics and transmission of zoonotic diseases in human populations.

The Needs for Developing Experiments on Reservoirs in Hantavirus Research: Accomplishments, Challenges and Promises for the Future

Due to their large geographic distribution and potential high mortality rates in human infections, hantaviruses constitute a worldwide threat to public health. As such, they have been the subject of a large array of clinical, virological and eco-evolutionary studies. Many experiments have been conducted in vitro or on animal models to identify the mechanisms leading to pathogenesis in humans and to develop treatments of hantavirus diseases. Experimental research has also been dedicated to the understanding of the relationship between hantaviruses and their reservoirs. However, these studies remain too scarce considering the diversity of hantavirus/reservoir pairs identified, and the wide range of issues that need to be addressed. In this review, we present a synthesis of the experimental studies that have been conducted on hantaviruses and their reservoirs. We aim at summarizing the knowledge gathered from this research, and to emphasize the gaps that need to be filled. Despite the many difficulties encountered to carry hantavirus experiments, we advocate for the need of such studies in the future, at the interface of evolutionary ecology and virology. They are critical to address emerging areas of research, including hantavirus evolution and the epidemiological consequences of individual variation in infection outcomes.

Identifying the patterns and drivers of Puumala hantavirus enzootic dynamics using reservoir sampling

Hantaviruses are zoonotic hemorrhagic fever viruses for which prevention of human spillover remains the first priority in disease management. Tailored intervention measures require an understanding of the drivers of enzootic dynamics, commonly inferred from distorted human incidence data. Here, we use longitudinal sampling of approximately three decades of Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) evolution in isolated reservoir populations to estimate PUUV evolutionary rates, and apply these to study the impact of environmental factors on viral spread. We find that PUUV accumulates genetic changes at a rate of ∼10⁻⁴ substitutions per site per year and that land cover type defines the dispersal dynamics of PUUV, with forests facilitating and croplands impeding virus spread. By providing reliable short-term PUUV evolutionary rate estimates, this work facilitates the evaluation of spatial risk heterogeneity starting from timed phylogeographic reconstructions based on virus sampling in its animal reservoir, thereby side-stepping the need for difficult-to-collect human disease incidence data.

The ecological dynamics of hantavirus diseases: From environmental variability to disease prevention largely based on data from China

Hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus disease have led to public concern and have created a global public health burden. Hantavirus spillover from natural hosts into human populations could be considered an ecological process, in which environmental forces, behavioral determinants of exposure, and dynamics at the human–animal interface affect human susceptibility and the epidemiology of the disease. In this review, we summarize the progress made in understanding hantavirus epidemiology and rodent reservoir population biology. We mainly focus on three species of rodent hosts with longitudinal studies of sufficient scale: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius, the main reservoir host for Hantaan virus [HTNV], which causes HFRS) in Asia, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus, the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus [SNV], which causes HPS) in North America, and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, the main reservoir host for Puumala virus [PUUV], which causes HFRS) in Europe. Moreover, we discuss the influence of ecological factors on human hantavirus disease outbreaks and provide an overview of research perspectives.

Spatial dynamics of a zoonotic orthohantavirus disease through heterogenous data on rodents, rodent infections, and human disease

Zoonotic diseases are challenging to study from the ecological point of view as, broadly speaking, datasets tend to be either detailed on a small spatial extent, or coarse on a large spatial extent. Also, there are many ways to assess zoonotic disease transmission systems, from pathogens to hosts to humans. We explore the complementarity of datasets considering the pathogen in its host, the host and human cases in the context of Puumala orthohantavirus infection in Germany. We selected relevant environmental predictors using a conceptual framework based on resource-based habitats. This framework assesses the functions, and associated environmental resources of the pathogen and associated host. A resource-based habitat framework supports variable selection and result interpretation. Multiplying ‘keyholes’ to view a zoonotic disease transmission system is valuable, but requires a strong conceptual framework to select and interpret environmental explanatory variables. This study highlights the usefulness of a structured, ecology-based approach to study drivers of zoonotic diseases at the level of virus, host, and human - not only for PUUV but also for other zoonotic pathogens. Our results show that human disease cases are best explained by a combination of variables related to zoonotic pathogen circulation and human exposure.

Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold

Host density thresholds to pathogen invasion separate regions of parameter space corresponding to endemic and disease-free states. The host density threshold is a central concept in theoretical epidemiology and a common target of human and wildlife disease control programmes, but there is mixed evidence supporting the existence of thresholds, especially in wildlife populations or for pathogens with complex transmission modes (e.g. environmental transmission). Here, we demonstrate the existence of a host density threshold for an environmentally transmitted pathogen by combining an epidemiological model with a microcosm experiment. Experimental epidemics consisted of replicate populations of naive crustacean zooplankton (Daphnia dentifera) hosts across a range of host densities (20-640 hosts l-1) that were exposed to an environmentally transmitted fungal pathogen (Metschnikowia bicuspidata). Epidemiological model simulations, parametrized independently of the experiment, qualitatively predicted experimental pathogen invasion thresholds. Variability in parameter estimates did not strongly influence outcomes, though systematic changes to key parameters have the potential to shift pathogen invasion thresholds. In summary, we provide one of the first clear experimental demonstrations of pathogen invasion thresholds in a replicated experimental system, and provide evidence that such thresholds may be predictable using independently constructed epidemiological models.

How much effort is required to accurately describe the complex ecology of a rodent-borne viral disease?

We use data collected on 18,1-ha live trapping grids monitored from 1994 through 2005 and on five of those grids through 2013 in the mesic northwestern US to illustrate the complexity of the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus)/Sin Nombre virus (SNV) host-pathogen system. Important factors necessary to understand zoonotic disease ecology include those associated with distribution and population dynamics of reservoir species as well as infection dynamics. Results are based on more than 851,000 trap nights, 16,608 individual deer mice and 10,572 collected blood samples. Deer mice were distributed throughout every habitat we sampled and were present during every sampling period in all habitats except high altitude habitats over1900 m. Abundance varied greatly among locations with peak numbers occurring mostly during fall. However, peak rodent abundance occurred during fall, winter and spring during various years on three grids trapped 12 mo/yr. Prevalence of antibodies to SNV averaged 3.9% to 22.1% but no grids had mice with antibodies during every month. The maximum period without antibody-positive mice ranged from one month to 52 months, or even more at high altitude grids where deer mice were not always present. Months without antibody-positive mice were more prevalent during fall than spring. Population fluctuations were not synchronous over broad geographic areas and antibody prevalences were not well spatially consistent, differing greatly over short distances. We observed an apparently negative, but non-statistically significant relationship between average antibody prevalence and average deer mouse population abundance and a statistically significant positive relationship between the average number of antibody positive mice and average population abundance. We present data from which potential researchers can estimate the effort required to adequately describe the ecology of a rodent-borne viral system. We address different factors affecting population dynamics and hantavirus antibody prevalence and discuss the path to understanding a complex rodent-borne disease system as well as the obstacles in that path.

Hantavirus seropositivity in rodents in relation to habitat heterogeneity in human-shaped landscapes of Southeast Asia

To establish how the conversion of natural habitats for agricultural purposes may impact the distribution of hantaviruses in Southeast Asia, we tested how habitat structure affects hantavirus infection prevalence of common murine rodents that inhabit human-dominated landscapes in this region. For this, we used geo-referenced data of rodents analysed for hantavirus infection and land cover maps produced for the seven study sites in Thailand, Cambodia and Lao PDR where they were collected. Rodents were tested by serological methods that detect several hantaviruses, including pathogenic ones. Rodents with a seropositive status were more likely to be found near to agriculture on steep land, and also in environments with a high proportion of agriculture on steep land. These results suggest that in Southeast Asia, hantaviruses, which are often associated with generalist rodent species with a preference for agricultural land, may benefit from land conversion to agriculture.

Spatial and Temporal Epidemiology of Nephropathia Epidemica Incidence and Hantavirus Seroprevalence in Rodent Hosts: Identification of the Main Environmental Factors in Europe

In Europe, the increasing number of nephropathia epidemica (NE) infections in humans, caused by Puumala virus carried by bank voles (Myodes glareolus), has triggered studies of environmental factors driving these infections. NE infections have been shown to occur in specific geographical areas characterized by environmental factors that influence the distribution and dynamics of host populations and virus persistence in the soil. Here, we review the influence of environmental conditions (including climate factors, food availability and habitat conditions) with respect to incidence in humans and seroprevalence in rodents, considering both direct and indirect transmission pathways. For each type of environmental factor, results and discrepancies between studies are presented and examined in the light of biological hypotheses. Overall, food availability and temperature appear to be the main drivers of host seroprevalence and NE incidence, but data quality and statistical approaches varied greatly among studies. We highlight the issues that now need to be addressed and suggest improvements for study design in regard to the current knowledge on hantavirus epidemiology.

Dynamics and drivers of hantavirus prevalence in rodent populations

Human encroachment on wildlife habitats has contributed to the emergence of several zoonoses. Pathogenic hantaviruses are hosted by rodents and cause severe diseases in the Americas and Eurasia. We reviewed several factors that potentially drive prevalence (the proportion of infected rodents) in host populations. These include demography, behavior, host density, small mammal diversity, predation, and habitat and landscape characteristics. This review is the first to include a quantitative summary of the literature investigating hantavirus prevalence in rodents. Demographic structure and density were investigated the most and predation the least. Reported effects of demographic structure and small mammal diversity were consistent, whereby reproductive males were most likely to be infected and prevalence decreased with small mammal diversity. The influences of habitat and landscape properties are often complex and indirect. The relationship between density and prevalence merits more investigation. Most hantavirus hosts are habitat generalists and their control is challenging. Incorporating all potential factors and their interactions is essential to understanding and controlling infection in host populations.

Landscape and regional environmental analysis of the spatial distribution of hantavirus human cases in europe

Background: In Europe, the most prevalent hantavirus, Puumala virus, is transmitted by bank voles and causes nephropathia epidemica in human. The European spatial distribution of nephropathia epidemica is investigated here for the first time with a rich set of environmental variables.

Methods: The influence of variables at the landscape and regional level is studied through multilevel logistic regression, and further information on their effects across the different European ecoregions is obtained by comparing an overall niche model (boosted regression trees) with regressions by ecoregion.

Results: The presence of nephropathia epidemica is likely in populated regions with well-connected forests, more intense vegetation activity, low soil water content, mild summers, and cold winters. In these regions, landscapes with a higher proportion of built-up areas in forest ecotones and lower minimum temperature in winter are expected to be more at risk. Climate and forest connectivity have a stronger effect at the regional level. If variables are staying at their current values, the models predict that nephropathia epidemica may know intensification but should not spread (although southern Sweden, the Norwegian coast, and the Netherlands should be kept under watch).

Conclusion: Models indicate that large-scale modeling can lead to a very high predictive power. At large scale, the effect of one variable on disease may follow three response scenarios: the effect may be the same across the entire study area, the effect can change according to the variable value, and the effect can change depending on local specificities. Each of these scenarios impacts large-scale modeling differently.

Climate Variability and the Occurrence of Human Puumala Hantavirus Infections in Europe: A Systematic Review

Hantaviruses are distributed worldwide and are transmitted by rodents. In Europe, the infection usually manifests as a mild form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) known as nephropathia epidemica (NE), which is triggered by the virus species Puumala. Its host is the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In the context of climate change, interest in the role of climatic factors for the disease has increased. A systematic review was conducted to investigate the association between climate variability and the occurrence of human Puumala hantavirus infections in Europe. We performed a literature search in the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science. Studies that investigated Puumala virus infection and climatic factors in any European country with a minimum collection period of 2 years were included. The selection of abstracts and the evaluation of included studies were performed by two independent reviewers. A total of 434 titles were identified in the databases, of which nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies were conducted in central Europe (Belgium, France and Germany), while only two came from the north (Sweden) and one from the south (Bosnia). Strong evidence was found for a positive association between temperature and NE incidence in central Europe, while the evidence for northern Europe so far appears insufficient. Results regarding precipitation were contradictory. Overall, the complex relationships between climate and hantavirus infections need further exploration to identify specific health risks and initiate appropriate intervention measures in the context of climate change.

The importance of bank vole density and rainy winters in predicting nephropathia epidemica incidence in Northern Sweden

Pathogenic hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae, genus Hantavirus) are rodent-borne viruses causing hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In Europe, there are more than 10,000 yearly cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE), a mild form of HFRS caused by Puumala virus (PUUV). The common and widely distributed bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the host of PUUV. In this study, we aim to explain and predict NE incidence in boreal Sweden using bank vole densities. We tested whether the number of rainy days in winter contributed to variation in NE incidence. We forecast NE incidence in July 2013–June 2014 using projected autumn vole density, and then considering two climatic scenarios: 1) rain-free winter and 2) winter with many rainy days. Autumn vole density was a strong explanatory variable of NE incidence in boreal Sweden in 1990–2012 (R² = 79%, p<0.001). Adding the number of rainy winter days improved the model (R² = 84%, p<0.05). We report for the first time that risk of NE is higher in winters with many rainy days. Rain on snow and ground icing may block vole access to subnivean space. Seeking refuge from adverse conditions and shelter from predators, voles may infest buildings, increasing infection risk. In a rainy winter scenario, we predicted 812 NE cases in boreal Sweden, triple the number of cases predicted in a rain-free winter in 2013/2014. Our model enables identification of high risk years when preparedness in the public health sector is crucial, as a rainy winter would accentuate risk.

Identification of factors influencing the Puumala virus seroprevalence within its reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment

Puumala virus (PUUV) is a major cause of mild to moderate haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and is transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). There has been a high cumulative incidence of recorded human cases in South-eastern Germany since 2004 when the region was first recognized as being endemic for PUUV. As the area is well known for outdoor recreation and the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP) is located in the region, the increasing numbers of recorded cases are of concern. To understand the population and environmental effects on the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles we trapped small mammals at 23 sites along an elevation gradient from 317 to 1420m above sea level. Generalized linear mixed effects models(GLMEM) were used to explore associations between the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles and climate and biotic factors. We found that the seroprevalence of PUUV was low (6%–7%) in 2008 and 2009, and reached 29% in 2010. PUUV seroprevalence was positively associated with the local species diversity and deadwood layer, and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, mean annual solar radiation, and herb layer. Based on these findings, an illustrative risk map for PUUV seroprevalence prediction in bank voles was created for an area of the national park. The map will help when planning infrastructure in the national park (e.g., huts, shelters, and trails).

Phylogeographic diversity of pathogenic and non-pathogenic hantaviruses in slovenia

Slovenia is a very diverse country from a natural geography point of view, with many different habitats within a relatively small area, in addition to major geological and climatic differences. It is therefore not surprising that several small mammal species have been confirmed to harbour hantaviruses: A. flavicollis (Dobrava virus), A. agrarius (Dobrava virus–Kurkino), M. glareolus (Puumala virus), S. areanus (Seewis virus), M. agrestis, M. arvalis and M. subterraneus (Tula virus). Three of the viruses, namely the Dobrava, Dobrava–Kurkino and Puumala viruses, cause disease in humans, with significant differences in the severity of symptoms. Due to changes in haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome cases (HFRS) epidemiology, a detailed study on phylogenetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of pathogenic and non-pathogenic hantaviruses circulating in ecologically diverse endemic regions was performed. The study presents one of the largest collections of hantavirus L, M and S sequences obtained from hosts and patients within a single country. Several genetic lineages were determined for each hantavirus species, with higher diversity among non-pathogenic compared to pathogenic viruses. For pathogenic hantaviruses, a significant geographic clustering of human- and rodent-derived sequences was confirmed. Several geographic and ecological factors were recognized as influencing and limiting the formation of endemic areas.

Landscape structure influences avian malaria ecology in the Western Cape, South Africa

A central theme in landscape ecology is that of understanding the consequences of landscape heterogeneity for ecological processes. The effects of landscape heterogeneity on parasite communities are poorly understood, although it has been shown that anthropogenic impacts may contribute to outbreaks of both parasites and pathogens. We tested for effects of landcover type, composition, configuration, and urbanisation on avian diversity and avian malaria prevalence in 26 communities of wetland-associated passerines in the Western Cape of South Africa. We predicted that avian malaria prevalence would be influenced by the pattern of farmland and urban areas in the surrounding landscapes and the sizes of the wetlands in which birds were sampled. We quantified landscape pattern using a six-class simplification of the National Landcover data set at 35 × 35 m resolution and five extents of between 1 and 20 km from each wetland. The bird community was sampled using point counts and we collected blood samples from birds at each site. We screened these for malaria using PCR and molecular techniques. Passerine species richness and infection prevalence varied significantly between different landcover types. Host richness and parasite prevalence were highest in viticultural and cropping sites respectively and lowest in urban sites. Wetlands located in indigenous vegetation had intermediate numbers of bird species and intermediate parasite prevalence. Landscape composition and habitat type surrounding wetlands emerged as useful correlates of infection prevalence. Anthropogenic landscape modification appears to have both direct and indirect effects on avian communities and their associated parasite assemblages, with attendant consequences for avian health.

Puumala virus outbreak in Western Thuringia, Germany, 2010: epidemiology and strain identification

In 2010, the highest annual number of human Puumala virus (PUUV) infections was reported in Germany since hantavirus surveillance started in 2001. The increase in annual case numbers was especially marked in western Thuringia. We combined results of case-based hantavirus surveillance in humans and serological and molecular investigations in the rodent reservoir to describe the epidemiological situation and to identify the putative outbreak strain. A 5-fold increase in notified hantavirus cases compared to the previous annual maximum was observed in western Thuringia in 2010. Disease incidence varied tremendously within a small geographical area with case patients' places of residence clustering around beech-dominated broad leaf forest patches. Investigations in the rodent reservoir revealed a novel Puumala virus (PUUV) subtype, which is clearly distinct from strains collected in other PUUV endemic regions of Germany. It can be assumed that in regions in western Thuringia where hantavirus cases occurred in 2010 or previous outbreak years, PUUV has been present in the environment for a long time. Further studies are needed to elucidate the population dynamics and hantavirus prevalence of the rodent reservoir and driving ecological factors.

Spatial analysis of dengue fever in Guangdong Province, China, 2001-2006

Guangdong Province is the area most seriously affected by dengue fever in China. In this study, we describe the spatial distribution of dengue fever in Guangdong Province from 2001 to 2006 with the objective of informing priority areas for public health planning and resource allocation. Annualized incidence at a county level was calculated and mapped to show crude incidence, excess hazard, and spatial smoothed incidence. Geographic information system-based spatial scan statistics was conducted to detect the spatial distribution pattern of dengue fever incidence at the county level. Spatial scan cluster analyses suggested that counties around Guangzhou City and Chaoshan Region were at increased risk for dengue fever (P < .01). Some spatial clusters of dengue fever were found in Guangdong Province, which allowed intervention measures to be targeted for maximum effect.

Modelling zoonotic diseases in humans: comparison of methods for hantavirus in Sweden

Because their distribution usually depends on the presence of more than one species, modelling zoonotic diseases in humans differs from modelling individual species distribution even though the data are similar in nature. Three approaches can be used to model spatial distributions recorded by points: based on presence/absence, presence/available or presence data. Here, we compared one or two of several existing methods for each of these approaches. Human cases of hantavirus infection reported by place of infection between 1991 and 1998 in Sweden were used as a case study. Puumala virus (PUUV), the most common hantavirus in Europe, circulates among bank voles (Myodes glareolus). In northern Sweden, it causes nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans, a mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.Logistic binomial regression and boosted regression trees were used to model presence and absence data. Presence and available sites (where the disease may occur) were modelled using cross-validated logistic regression. Finally, the ecological niche model MaxEnt, based on presence-only data, was used.In our study, logistic regression had the best predictive power, followed by boosted regression trees, MaxEnt and cross-validated logistic regression. It is also the most statistically reliable but requires absence data. The cross-validated method partly avoids the issue of absence data but requires fastidious calculations. MaxEnt accounts for non-linear responses but the estimators can be complex. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are reviewed.

Contours of risk: spatializing human behaviors to understand disease dynamics in changing landscapes

We echo viewpoints presented in recent publications from EcoHealth and other journals arguing for the need to understand linkages between human health, disease ecology, and landscape change. We underscore the importance of incorporating spatialities of human behaviors and perceptions in such analyses to further understandings of socio-ecological interactions mediating human health. We use Buruli ulcer, an emerging necrotizing skin infection and serious health concern in central Ghana, to illustrate our argument.

In Search for Factors that Drive Hantavirus Epidemics

In Europe, hantaviruses (Bunyaviridae) are small mammal-associated zoonotic and emerging pathogens that can cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Puumala virus, the main etiological agent carried by the bank vole Myodes glareolus is responsible for a mild form of HFRS while Dobrava virus induces less frequent but more severe cases of HFRS. Since 2000 in Europe, more than 3000 cases of HFRS have been recorded, in average, each year, which is nearly double compared to the previous decade. In addition to this upside long-term trend, significant oscillations occur. Epidemic years appear, usually every 2-4 years, with an increased incidence, generally in localized hot spots. Moreover, the virus has been identified in new areas in the recent years. A great number of surveys have been carried out in order to assess the prevalence of the infection in the reservoir host and to identify links with different biotic and abiotic factors. The factors that drive the infections are related to the density and diversity of bank vole populations, prevalence of infection in the reservoir host, viral excretion in the environment, survival of the virus outside its host, and human behavior, which affect the main transmission virus route through inhalation of infected rodent excreta. At the scale of a rodent population, the prevalence of the infection increases with the age of the individuals but also other parameters, such as sex and genetic variability, interfere. The contamination of the environment may be correlated to the number of newly infected rodents, which heavily excrete the virus. The interactions between these different parameters add to the complexity of the situation and explain the absence of reliable tools to predict epidemics. In this review, the factors that drive the epidemics of hantaviruses in Middle Europe are discussed through a panorama of the epidemiological situation in Belgium, France, and Germany.

Hantavirus infections in Europe and their impact on public health

Hantaviruses (genus Hantavirus, family Bunyaviridae) are enveloped tri-segmented negative-stranded RNA viruses each carried by a specific rodent or insectivore host species. Several different hantaviruses known to infect humans circulate in Europe. The most common is Puumala (PUUV) carried by the bank vole; another two important, genetically closely related ones are Dobrava-Belgrade (DOBV) and Saaremaa viruses (SAAV) carried by Apodemus mice (species names follow the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses nomenclature). Of the two hantaviral diseases, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantaviral cardiopulmonary syndrome, the European viruses cause only HFRS: DOBV with often severe symptoms and a high case fatality rate, and PUUV and SAAV more often mild disease. More than 10,000 HFRS cases are diagnosed annually in Europe and in increasing numbers. Whether this is because of increasing recognition by the medical community or due to environmental factors such as climate change, or both, is not known. Nevertheless, in large areas of Europe, the population has a considerable seroprevalence but only relatively few HFRS cases are reported. Moreover, no epidemiological data are available from many countries. We know now that cardiac, pulmonary, ocular and hormonal disorders are, besides renal changes, common during the acute stage of PUUV and DOBV infection. About 5% of hospitalized PUUV and 16%-48% of DOBV patients require dialysis and some prolonged intensive-care treatment. Although PUUV-HFRS has a low case fatality rate, complications and long-term hormonal, renal, and cardiovascular consequences commonly occur. No vaccine or specific therapy is in general use in Europe. We conclude that hantaviruses have a significant impact on public health in Europe.

Environmental change and disease dynamics: effects of intensive forest management on Puumala hantavirus infection in boreal bank vole populations

Intensive management of Fennoscandian forests has led to a mosaic of woodlands in different stages of maturity. The main rodent host of the zoonotic Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), a species that can be found in all woodlands and especially mature forests. We investigated the influence of forest age structure on PUUV infection dynamics in bank voles. Over four years, we trapped small mammals twice a year in a forest network of different succession stages in Northern Finland. Our study sites represented four forest age classes from young (4 to 30 years) to mature (over 100 years) forests. We show that PUUV-infected bank voles occurred commonly in all forest age classes, but peaked in mature forests. The probability of an individual bank vole to be PUUV infected was positively related to concurrent host population density. However, when population density was controlled for, a relatively higher infection rate was observed in voles trapped in younger forests. Furthermore, we found evidence of a "dilution effect" in that the infection probability was negatively associated with the simultaneous density of other small mammals during the breeding season. Our results suggest that younger forests created by intensive management can reduce hantaviral load in the environment, but PUUV is common in woodlands of all ages. As such, the Fennoscandian forest landscape represents a significant reservoir and source of hantaviral infection in humans.

Rodent-borne hantaviruses in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Thailand

In order to evaluate the circulation of hantaviruses present in southeast Asia, a large scale survey of small mammal species was carried out at seven main sites in the region (Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Thailand). Small scale opportunistic trapping was also performed at an eighth site (Cambodia). Using a standard IFA test, IgG antibodies reacting to Hantaan virus antigens were detected at six sites. Antibody prevalence at each site varied from 0 to 5.6% with antibodies detected in several rodent species (Bandicota indica, B. savilei, Maxomys surifer, Mus caroli, M. cookii, Rattus exulans, R. nitidius, R. norvegicus, and R. tanezumi). When site seroprevalence was compared with site species richness, seropositive animals were found more frequently at sites with lower species richness. In order to confirm which hantavirus species were present, a subset of samples was also subjected to RT-PCR. Hantaviral RNA was detected at a single site from each country. Sequencing confirmed the presence of two hantavirus species, Thailand and Seoul viruses, including one sample (from Lao PDR) representing a highly divergent strain of Seoul virus. This is the first molecular evidence of hantavirus in Lao PDR and the first reported L segment sequence data for Thailand virus.

Landscape genetics highlights the role of bank vole metapopulation dynamics in the epidemiology of Puumala hantavirus

Rodent host dynamics and dispersal are thought to be critical for hantavirus epidemiology as they determine pathogen persistence and transmission within and between host populations. We used landscape genetics to investigate how the population dynamics of the bank vole Myodes glareolus, the host of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV), vary with forest fragmentation and influence PUUV epidemiology. We sampled vole populations within the Ardennes, a French PUUV endemic area. We inferred demographic features such as population size, isolation and migration with regard to landscape configuration. We next analysed the influence of M. glareolus population dynamics on PUUV spatial distribution. Our results revealed that the global metapopulation dynamics of bank voles were strongly shaped by landscape features, including suitable patch size and connectivity. Large effective size in forest might therefore contribute to the higher observed levels of PUUV prevalence. By contrast, populations from hedge networks highly suffered from genetic drift and appeared strongly isolated from all other populations. This might result in high probabilities of local extinction for both M. glareolus and PUUV. Besides, we detected signatures of asymmetric bank vole migration from forests to hedges. These movements were likely to sustain PUUV in fragmented landscapes. In conclusion, our study provided arguments in favour of source-sink dynamics shaping PUUV persistence and spread in heterogeneous, Western European temperate landscapes. It illustrated the potential contribution of landscape genetics to the understanding of the epidemiological processes occurring at this local scale.

Using geographic information system-based ecologic niche models to forecast the risk of hantavirus infection in Shandong Province, China

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important public health problem in Shandong Province, China. In this study, we combined ecologic niche modeling with geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to identify the risk factors and affected areas of hantavirus infections in rodent hosts. Land cover and elevation were found to be closely associated with the presence of hantavirus-infected rodent hosts. The averaged area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864, implying good performance. The predicted risk maps based on the model were validated both by the hantavirus-infected rodents' distribution and HFRS human case localities with a good fit. These findings have the applications for targeting control and prevention efforts.

Concomitant influence of helminth infection and landscape on the distribution of Puumala hantavirus in its reservoir, Myodes glareolus

Background

Puumala virus, the agent of nephropathia epidemica (NE), is the most prevalent hantavirus in Europe. The risk for human infection seems to be strongly correlated with the prevalence of Puumala virus (PUUV) in populations of its reservoir host species, the bank vole Myodes glareolus. In humans, the infection risks of major viral diseases are affected by the presence of helminth infections. We therefore proposed to analyse the influence of both helminth community and landscape on the prevalence of PUUV among bank vole populations in the Ardennes, a PUUV endemic area in France.

Results

Among the 313 voles analysed, 37 had anti-PUUV antibodies. Twelve gastro-intestinal helminth species were recorded among all voles sampled. We showed that PUUV seroprevalence strongly increased with age or sexual maturity, especially in the northern forests (massif des Ardennes). The helminth community structure significantly differed between this part and the woods or hedgerows of the southern cretes pre-ardennaises. Using PUUV RNA quantification, we identified significant coinfections between PUUV and gastro-intestinal helminths in the northern forests only. More specifically, PUUV infection was positively associated with the presence of Heligmosomum mixtum, and in a lesser extent, Aonchotheca muris-sylvatici. The viral load of PUUV infected individuals tended to be higher in voles coinfected with H. mixtum. It was significantly lower in voles coinfected with A. muris-sylvatici, reflecting the influence of age on these latter infections.

Conclusions

This is the first study to emphasize hantavirus - helminth coinfections in natural populations. It also highlights the importance to consider landscape when searching for such associations. We have shown that landscape characteristics strongly influence helminth community structure as well as PUUV distribution. False associations might therefore be evidenced if geographic patterns of helminths or PUUV repartition are not previously identified. Moreover, our work revealed that interactions between helminths and landscape enhance/deplete the occurrence of coinfections between PUUV and H. mixtum or A. muris-sylvatici. Further experimental analyses and long-term individual surveys are now required to confirm these correlative results, and to ascertain the causal links between helminth and PUUV infection risks.

Hantaviruses and their hosts in Europe: reservoirs here and there, but not everywhere?

Five hantaviruses are known to circulate among rodents in Europe, and at least two among insectivores. Four (Dobrava, Saaremaa, Seoul, and Puumala [PUUV] viruses) are clearly associated with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). PUUV, the most common etiological agent of HFRS in Europe, is carried by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), one of the most widespread and abundant mammal species in Europe. This host-virus system is among hantaviruses also the most studied one in Europe. However, HFRS incidence varies throughout the continent. The spatial as well as temporal variation in the occurrence of HFRS is linked to geographic differences in the population dynamics of the reservoir rodents in different biomes of Europe. While rodent abundance may follow mast seeding events in many parts of temperate Europe, in northern (N) Europe multiannual cycles in population density exist as the result of the interaction between rodent populations and specialist predator populations in a delayed density-dependent manner. The spatial distribution of hantaviruses further depends on parameters such as forest patch size and connectivity of the most suitable rodent habitats, and the conditions for the survival of the virus outside the host, as well as historical distribution patterns (phylogeographies) of hosts and viruses. In multiannually fluctuating populations of rodents, with population increases of great amplitude, one should expect a simultaneous build-up of recently hantavirus-infected (shedding) rodents. The increasing number of infectious, virus-shedding rodents leads to a rapid transmission of hantavirus across the rodent population, and to humans. Our review discusses these aspects for PUUV, the only European hantavirus for which there is a reasonable, yet still far from complete, ecological continental-wide understanding. We discuss how this information could translate to other European hantavirus-host systems, and where the most important questions lie for further research.

Pathogenic landscapes: interactions between land, people, disease vectors, and their animal hosts

BACKGROUND

Landscape attributes influence spatial variations in disease risk or incidence. We present a review of the key findings from eight case studies that we conducted in Europe and West Africa on the impact of land changes on emerging or re-emerging vector-borne diseases and/or zoonoses. The case studies concern West Nile virus transmission in Senegal, tick-borne encephalitis incidence in Latvia, sandfly abundance in the French Pyrenees, Rift Valley Fever in the Ferlo (Senegal), West Nile Fever and the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue, and rodent-borne Puumala hantavirus and Lyme borreliosis in Belgium.

RESULTS

We identified general principles governing landscape epidemiology in these diverse disease systems and geographic regions. We formulated ten propositions that are related to landscape attributes, spatial patterns and habitat connectivity, pathways of pathogen transmission between vectors and hosts, scale issues, land use and ownership, and human behaviour associated with transmission cycles.

CONCLUSIONS

A static view of the "pathogenecity" of landscapes overlays maps of the spatial distribution of vectors and their habitats, animal hosts carrying specific pathogens and their habitat, and susceptible human hosts and their land use. A more dynamic view emphasizing the spatial and temporal interactions between these agents at multiple scales is more appropriate. We also highlight the complementarity of the modelling approaches used in our case studies. Integrated analyses at the landscape scale allows a better understanding of interactions between changes in ecosystems and climate, land use and human behaviour, and the ecology of vectors and animal hosts of infectious agents.

Environmental risk factors for haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in a French new epidemic area

In France, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is endemic along the Belgian border. However, this rodent-borne zoonosis caused by the Puumala virus has recently spread south to the Franche-Comté region. We investigated the space-time distribution of HFRS and evaluated the influence of environmental factors that drive the hantavirus reservoir abundance and/or the disease transmission in this area. A scan test clearly indicated space-time clustering, highlighting a single-year (2005) epidemic in the southern part of the region, preceded by a heat-wave 2 years earlier. A Bayesian regression approach showed an association between a variable reflecting biomass (normalized difference vegetation index) and HFRS incidence. The reasons why HFRS cases recently emerged remain largely unknown, and climate parameters alone do not reliably predict outbreaks. Concerted efforts that combine reservoir monitoring, surveillance, and investigation of human cases are warranted to better understand the epidemiological patterns of HFRS in this area.

Andes virus infections in the rodent reservoir and in humans vary across contrasting landscapes in Chile

Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) is an emerging infectious disease first reported in Chile in 1995. Andes hantavirus (ANDV) is responsible for the more than 500 cases of HCPS reported in Chile. Previous work showed that ANDV is genetically differentiated in Chile across contrasting landscapes. To determine whether the reservoir rodent (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus) populations are also geographically segregated, we conducted range-wide spatial genetic analyses of O. longicaudatus in Chile using the mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b gene. Given that landscape structure influences the incidence of hantavirus infections, we also tested 772 O. longicaudatus specimens for antibodies to ANDV captured during the period 2000-2006. Population genetic analyses of O. longicaudatus are largely congruent with those reported for ANDV, with the host primarily differentiated according to three defined ecoregions, Mediterranean, Valdivian rain forest and North Patagonian rain forest. Significant differences in the relative prevalence of anti-ANDV antibodies in rodent samples also were found across the three ecoregions. We relate these results to the number of reported human HCPS cases in Chile, and discuss the importance of landscape differences in light of ANDV transmission to humans and among rodent populations.

Ecology of hantavirus in a changing world

Hantavirus is a genus of virus represented by 45 different species and is hosted by small mammals, predominantly rats and mice. Roughly, half of all hantaviruses cause diseases in humans that vary in morbidity from mild to severe. The natural and anthropogenic changes occurring in the environment appear to be impacting the ecology of hantaviruses and their natural hosts as well as the incidence of hantaviral diseases in humans. Although such studies are limited at this time, there is evidence that natural climate cycles such as El Niño as well as anthropogenic climate change enhance hantavirus prevalence when host population dynamics are driven by food availability. Climate appears to have less of an effect on hantavirus when host populations are controlled by predators. Human alteration to the landscape also appears to enhance hantavirus prevalence when the disturbance regime enriches the environment for the host, for example, agriculture. More long-term studies on multiple species of hantavirus are needed to accurately predict the outcome of changing environmental conditions on prevalence in hosts as well as disease incidence in humans.

Hantavirus infections in fluctuating host populations: the role of maternal antibodies

Infected females may transfer maternal antibodies (MatAbs) to their offspring, which may then be transiently protected against infections the mother has encountered. However, the role of maternal protection in infectious disease dynamics in wildlife has largely been neglected. Here, we investigate the effects of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV)-specific MatAbs on PUUV dynamics, using 7 years' data from a cyclic bank vole population in Finland. For the first time to our knowledge, we partition seropositivity data from a natural population into separate dynamic patterns for MatAbs and infection. The likelihood of young of the year carrying PUUV-specific MatAbs during the breeding season correlated positively with infection prevalence in the overwintered parent population in the preceding spring. The probability of PUUV infection varied between seasons (highest in spring, lowest in late summer) and depended on population structure, but was also, in late autumn, notably, negatively related to summer MatAb prevalence, as well as to infection prevalence earlier in the breeding season. Hence, our results suggest that high infection prevalence in the early breeding season leads to a high proportion of transiently immune young individuals, which causes delays in transmission. This suggests, in turn, that MatAb protection has the potential to affect infection dynamics in natural populations.

Satellite derived forest phenology and its relation with nephropathia epidemica in Belgium

The connection between nephropathia epidemica (NE) and vegetation dynamics has been emphasized in recent studies. Changing climate has been suggested as a triggering factor of recently observed epidemiologic peaks in reported NE cases. We have investigated whether there is a connection between the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium and specific trends in remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests. The analysis of time series of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index revealed that changes in forest phenology, considered in literature as an effect of climate change, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission.

Hantavirus outbreak in Western Europe: reservoir host infection dynamics related to human disease patterns

Within Europe, Puumala virus (PUUV) is the causal agent of nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans, a zoonotic disease with increasing significance in recent years. In a region of Belgium with a historically high incidence of NE, bank voles (the PUUV reservoir hosts), were monitored for PUUV IgG antibody prevalence in nine study sites before, during, and after the highest NE outbreak recorded in Belgium in 2005. We found that the highest numbers of PUUV IgG-positive voles coincided with the peak of NE cases at the regional level, indicating that a PUUV epizootic in bank voles directly led to the NE outbreak in humans. On a local scale, PUUV infection in voles was patchy and not correlated to NE incidence before the epizootic. However, during the epizootic period PUUV infection spread in the vole populations and was significantly correlated to local NE incidence. Initially, local bank-vole numbers were positively associated with local PUUV infection risk in voles, but this was no longer the case after the homogeneous spreading of PUUV during the PUUV outbreak.

Milder winters in northern Scandinavia may contribute to larger outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever virus

The spread of zoonotic infectious diseases may increase due to climate factors such as temperature, humidity and precipitation. This is also true for hantaviruses, which are globally spread haemorrhagic fever viruses carried by rodents. Hantaviruses are frequently transmitted to humans all over the world and regarded as emerging viral diseases. Climate variations affect the rodent reservoir populations and rodent population peaks coincide with increased number of human cases of hantavirus infections. In northern Sweden, a form of haemorrhagic fever called nephropathia epidemica (NE), caused by the Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is endemic and during 2006–2007 an unexpected, sudden and large outbreak of NE occurred in this region. The incidence was 313 cases/100,000 inhabitants in the most endemic areas, and from January through March 2007 the outbreak had a dramatic and sudden start with 474 cases in the endemic region alone. The PUUV rodent reservoir is bank voles and immediately before and during the peak of disease outbreak the affected regions experienced extreme climate conditions with a record-breaking warm winter, registering temperatures 6–9°C above normal. No protective snow cover was present before the outbreak and more bank voles than normal came in contact with humans inside or in close to human dwellings. These extreme climate conditions most probably affected the rodent reservoir and are important factors for the severity of the outbreak.

Investigating the effects of climatic variables and reservoir on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Huludao City, China: a 17-year data analysis based on structure equation model

Background

HFRS is a serious public health problem in China and the study on HFRS is important in China for its large population. The present study aimed to explore the impact of climatic variables and reservoir on the incidence of HFRS in Huludao City, an epidemic focus of the disease in northeastern China.

Methods

Structure Equation Model (SEM), a statistical technique for testing and estimating causal relationships, was conducted based on climatic variables, virus-carrying index among rodents, and incidence of HFRS in the city during the period 1990 to 2006. The linear structural relationships (LISREL) software (Scientific Software International, Lincolnwood, IL) was used to fit SEMs.

Results

Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and virus-carrying index among rodents have shown positive correlations with the monthly incidence of HFRS, while air pressure had a negative correlation with the incidence. The best-fit SEM model fitted well with the data-based correlation matrix, P value was more than 0.56, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) equaled to 0, goodness-of-fit index (GFI) was more than 0.99.

Conclusion

Climate and reservoirs have affected the incidence of HFRS in Huludao City, located in northeastern China. Climate affects HFRS incidence mainly through the effect on reservoir in the study area. HFRS prevention and control should give more consideration to rodent control and climate variations.

Environmental and ecological potential for enzootic cycles of Puumala hantavirus in Great Britain

Puumala virus (PUUV) is a zoonotic rodent-borne hantavirus in continental Europe. Its reservoir host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), is ubiquitous in Great Britain (GB); however, there has been no reported incidence of virus in either animals or humans. In northwest Europe, increases in bank vole numbers, stimulated by increases in production of beech/oak crops (mast), are associated with outbreaks of nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans. These so-called 'mast years' are determined by sequential climatic events. This paper investigates the contribution of a number of ecological and environmental factors driving outbreaks of PUUV in northwest Europe and assesses whether such factors might also permit enzootic PUUV circulation in GB. Analysis of GB climate data, using regression models, confirms that mast years in GB are stimulated, and can be predicted, by the same climatic events as mast years in PUUV-endemic regions of northwest Europe. A number of other possible non-climatic constraints on enzootic cycles are discussed.