The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) as a model for diarrhea mortality reduction

Effects of different combinations of antibacterial compound supplements in calf pellets on growth performance, health, blood parameters, and rumen microbiome of dairy calves

This study investigated the effects of different combinations of antibacterial compounds (attapulgite, plant essential oils, and chitosan oligosaccharides) on growth performance, blood biochemical parameters, and rumen microbiome of calves. A total of 48 preweaning calves were randomly divided into four groups (n = 12 per group), and fed the following full mixed-ration granule diets for the 67-d-feeding trial: (1) basal diet (control group); (2) basal diet +1,000 g/t attapulgite, plant essential oils, and chitosan oligosaccharide (AEOCO group); (3) basal diet +1,000 g/t attapulgite and chitosan oligosaccharide (ACO group); and (4) basal diet +1,000 g/t attapulgite and plant essential oil (AEO group). The results showed that the daily weight gain of the AEOCO and AEO groups significantly increased (p < 0.05), whereas the feed conversion ratio decreased compared with that of the control group. Among the three treatment groups, AEO group showed the most positive effect, with the diarrhea rate reduced by 68.2% compared with that of the control group. Total protein and globulin levels were lower in the AEO group than in the control group. Albumin levels were higher in the AEOCO and AEO groups than in the control group. Immunoglobulin A, immunoglobulin G, and immunoglobulin M concentrations were higher in the AEOCO group (p < 0.05) than in the control group. The interleukin-6 concentration was lower in the AEOCO and AEO groups than in the control group (p < 0.05). The Chao 1 richness and ACE indices were higher in the AEOCO group than in the control group (p < 0.05). The ACO group had a significantly lower (p < 0.05) relative abundance of Firmicutes than the control group. The relative abundance of Bacteroidetes was the lowest in the control group, whereas that of Spirochaetota and Fibrobacteriota was the highest (p < 0.05). The relative abundance of Succiniclasticum was higher in the ACO and AEO groups (p < 0.05). These findings indicate that the combination of attapulgite, plant essential oils, and chitosan oligosaccharides has ameliorative effects on the growth performance, blood parameters, and rumen microbiome of calves.

Changing Patterns in Digestive Diseases Mortality in Urban and Rural Areas - China, 1987-2021

What is already known about this topic?

Digestive diseases (DDs) are a global health concern with a substantial epidemiological and economic impact, given their high prevalence.

What is added by this report?

This study investigated the trends in mortality related to DDs in China from 1987 to 2021, focusing on the urban-rural divide. Additionally, it aimed to determine the specific impacts of age, period, and cohort on DDs mortality.

What are the implications for public health practice?

There is a need to prioritize and allocate more resources toward the future management of DDs in order to effectively address the challenges posed by urbanization and aging populations.

Modelling the potential cost-effectiveness of food-based programs to reduce malnutrition

Poor quality diets contribute to malnutrition globally, but evidence is weak on the cost-effectiveness of food-based interventions that shift diets. This study assessed 11 candidate interventions developed through Delphi techniques to improve diets in India, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. A Markov simulation model incorporated time, individual-level, nutrition, and policy parameters to estimate health impacts and cost-effectiveness for reducing stunting, anaemia, diarrhea, and mortality in preschool children. At an assumed 80% coverage, interventions considered would potentially save between 0·16 and 3·20 years of life per child. The average cost-effectiveness ratio ranged from US$9 to US$2000 per life year saved. This approach, linking expert knowledge, known costs, and modelling, offers potential for estimating cost-effective investments for better informed policy choice where empirical evidence is limited.

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Few studies estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of programs for improving health through diets.

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Expert knowledge linked to modelling offers a basis for assessing potential alternatives where data are lacking.

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Our analysis assessed 11 candidate interventions for Ethiopia, India, and Nigeria derived from local expert opinion.

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Modelling demonstrates these programs' potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness.

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The modelling of estimated benefits can support best-buy policy and program choices.

Factors associated with the decline in under five diarrhea mortality in Tanzania from 1980-2015

Background

Tanzania has made great progress in reducing diarrhea mortality in under- five children. We examined factors associated with the decline and projected the impact of scaling up interventions or reducing risk factors on diarrhea deaths.

Methods

We reviewed economic, health, and diarrhea-related policies, reports and programs implemented during 1980 to 2015. We used the Lives Saved Tool to determine the percentage reduction in diarrhea-specific mortality attributable to changes in coverage of the interventions and risk factors, including direct diarrhea-related interventions, nutrition, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). We projected the number of diarrhea deaths that could be prevented in 2030, assuming near universal coverage of different intervention packages.

Results

Diarrhea-specific mortality among under-five children in Tanzania declined by 89% from 35.3 deaths per 1000 live births in 1980 to 3.9 deaths per 1000 live births in 2015. Factors associated with diarrhea-specific under-five mortality reduction included oral rehydration solution (ORS) use, changes in stunting prevalence, vitamin A supplementation, rotavirus vaccine, change in wasting prevalence and change in age-appropriate breastfeeding practices. Universal coverage of direct diarrhea, nutrition and WASH interventions has the potential reduce the diarrhea-specific mortality rate by 90%.

Conclusions

Scaling up of a few key childhood interventions such as ORS and nutrition, and reducing the prevalence of stunting would address the remaining diarrhea-specific under-five mortality by 2030.

Drivers of the reduction in childhood diarrhea mortality 1980-2015 and interventions to eliminate preventable diarrhea deaths by 2030

BACKGROUND

Childhood diarrhea deaths have declined more than 80% from 1980 to 2015, in spite of an increase in the number of children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Possible drivers of this remarkable accomplishment can guide the further reduction of the half million annual child deaths from diarrhea that still occur.

METHODS

We used the Lives Saved Tool, which models effects on mortality due to changes in coverage of preventive or therapeutic interventions or risk factors, for 50 LMIC to determine the proximal drivers of the diarrhea mortality reduction.

RESULTS

Diarrhea treatment (oral rehydration solution [ORS], zinc, antibiotics for dysentery and management of persistent diarrhea) and use of rotavirus vaccine accounted for 49.7% of the diarrhea mortality reduction from 1980 to 2015. Improvements in nutrition (stunting, wasting, breastfeeding practices, vitamin A) accounted for 38.8% and improvements in water, sanitation and handwashing for 11.5%. The contribution of ORS was greater from 1980 to 2000 (58.0% of the reduction) than from 2000 to 2015 (30.7%); coverage of ORS increased from zero in 1980 to 29.5% in 2000 and more slowly to 44.1% by 2015. To eliminate the remaining childhood diarrhea deaths globally, all these interventions will be needed. Scaling up diarrhea treatment and rotavirus vaccine, to 90% coverage could reduce global child diarrhea mortality by 74.1% from 2015 levels by 2030. Adding improved nutrition could increase that to 89.1%. Finally, adding increased use of improved water sources, sanitation and handwashing could result in a 92.8% reduction from the 2015 level.

CONCLUSIONS

Employing the interventions that have resulted in such a large reduction in diarrhea mortality in the last 35 years can virtually eliminate remaining childhood diarrhea deaths by 2030.

Drivers of the progress achieved by Peru in reducing childhood diarrhoea mortality: a country case study

BACKGROUND

Childhood diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially in Peru in recent decades. We documented trends in childhood diarrhoea mortality from 1980 to 2015, along with trends in coverage of diarrhoea-related interventions and risk factors, to identify the main drivers of mortality reduction.

METHODS

We conducted desk reviews on social determinants, policies and programmes, and diarrhoea-related interventions implemented during the study period. We reviewed different datasets on child mortality, and on coverage of diarrhoea-related interventions. We received input from individuals familiar with implementation of diarrhoea-related policies and programmes. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to help explain the reasons for the decline in diarrhoea mortality from 1980 to 2015 and to predict additional reduction with further scale up of diarrhoea-related interventions by 2030.

RESULTS

In Peru under-five diarrhoea mortality declined from 23.3 in 1980 to 0.8 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. The percentage of under-five diarrhoea deaths as related to total under-five deaths was reduced from 17.8% in 1980 to 4.9% in 2015. Gross domestic product increased and poverty declined from 1990 to 2015. Access to improved water increased from 56% in 1986 to 79.3% in 2015. Oral rehydrating salts (ORS) use during an episode of diarrhoea increased from 3.6% in 1986 to 32% in 2015. Vertical programmes focused on diarrhoea management with ORS were implemented successfully in the 1980s and 1990s, and were replaced by integrated crosscutting interventions since the early 2000s. LiST analyses showed that about half (53.9%) of the reduction in diarrhoea mortality could be attributed to improved water, sanitation and hygiene, 25.0% to direct diarrhoea interventions and 21.1% to nutrition. The remaining mortality could be reduced by three-quarters by 2030 with improved diarrhoea treatment and further with enhanced breastfeeding practices and reduction in stunting. LiST does not take into account the role of social determinants.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction of diarrhoeal under-five mortality in Peru can be explained by a combination of factors, including improvement of social determinants, child nutrition, diarrhoea treatment with ORS and prevention with rotavirus vaccine and increased access to water and sanitation. The already low rate of diarrhoea mortality could be further reduced by a number of interventions, especially additional use of ORS and zinc for diarrhoea treatment. Peru is a remarkable example of a country that was able to reduce childhood diarrhoea mortality by implementing interventions through vertical programmes initially, and afterwards through implementation of integrated multisectoral packages targeting prevalent illnesses and multi-causal problems like stunting.

Factors associated with the decline in under-five diarrhea mortality in India: a LiST analysis

BACKGROUND

India has achieved 86% reduction in the number of under-five diarrheal deaths from 1980 to 2015. Nonetheless diarrhea is still among the leading causes of under-five deaths. The aim of this analysis was to study the contribution of factors that led to decline in diarrheal deaths in the country and the effect of scaling up of intervention packages to address the remaining diarrheal deaths.

METHODS

We assessed the attribution of different factors and intervention packages such as direct diarrhea case management interventions, nutritional factors and WASH interventions which contributed to diarrhea specific under-five mortality reduction (DSMR) during 1980 to 2015 using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). The potential impact of scaling up different packages of interventions to achieve universal coverage levels by year 2030 on reducing the number of remaining diarrheal deaths were estimated.

RESULTS

The major factors associated with DSMR reduction in under-fives during 1980 to 2015, were increase in ORS use, reduction in stunting prevalence, improved sanitation, changes in age appropriate breastfeeding practices, increase in the vitamin-A supplementation and persistent diarrhea treatment. ORS use and reduction in stunting were the two key interventions, each accounting for around 32% of the lives saved during this period. Scaling up the direct diarrhea case management interventions from the current coverage levels in 2015 to achieve universal coverage levels by 2030 can save around 82 000 additional lives. If the universal targets for nutritional factors and WASH interventions can be achieved, an additional 23 675 lives can potentially be saved.

CONCLUSIONS

While it is crucial to improve the coverage and equity in ORS use, an integrated approach to promote nutrition, WASH and direct diarrhea interventions is likely to yield the highest impact on reducing the remaining diarrheal deaths in under-five children.

Bangladesh: a success case in combating childhood diarrhoea

BACKGROUND

Bangladesh had a large reduction in childhood deaths due to diarrhoeal disease in recent decades. This paper explores the preventive, promotive, curative and contextual drivers that helped Bangladesh achieve this exemplary success.

METHODS

Primary and secondary data collection approaches were used to document trends in reduction of Diarrhoea Specific Mortality Rate (DSMR) between 1980 and 2015, understand what policies and programmes played key roles, and estimate the contribution of specific interventions that were implemented during the period. Data acquisition involved relevant document reviews and in-depth interviews with key stake-holders. A systematic search of literature was undertaken to explore socio-economic, aetiological, behavioural, and nutritional drivers of diarrhoeal disease reduction in Bangladesh. Finally, we used LiST (Lives Saved Tool) to model the contributions of the relevant interventions during three time periods (1980-2015, 1980-2000 and 2000-2015), and to project the number of lives saved in 2030 (compared to 2015) if these interventions were implemented at near universal coverage (90%).

RESULTS

The factors which likely had the most impact on DSMR were the coordinated efforts of the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) with non-government organizations (NGOs) and the private sector that enabled swift implementation, at scale, of interventions like oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc, promotion of breastfeeding, handwashing and sanitary latrines (WASH), as well as improvements in female education and nutrition. Compared to 1980, we found ORS and reduction in stunting prevalence had the greatest impact on DSMR, saving roughly 70 000 lives combined in 2015. Until 2000, ORS had a higher contribution to DSMR reduction than reduction in stunting prevalence. This proportionate contribution was reversed during 2000-2015. At near universal coverage (90%) of combined direct diarrhoeal disease, nutrition and WASH interventions, we project that an additional 5356 deaths due to diarrhoea could be averted in 2030.

CONCLUSION

Bangladesh's achievement in reduction of DSMR highlights the important role of an enabling policy environment that fostered coordinated efforts of the public and private sectors and NGOs for maximal impact. To maintain this momentum, evidence-based interventions should be scaled up at universal coverage.

Effects of scaling up various community-level interventions on child mortality in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

Improving child health remains one of the most significant health challenges in sub-Saharan Africa, a region that accounts for half of the global burden of under-five mortality despite having approximately 13% of the world population and 25% of births globally. Improving access to evidence-based community-level interventions has increasingly been advocated to contribute to reducing child mortality and, thus, help low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) achieve the child health related Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target. Nevertheless, the coverage of community-level interventions remains suboptimal. In this study, we estimated the potential impact of scaling up various community-level interventions on child mortality in five East African Community (EAC) countries (i.e., Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania).

METHODS

We identified ten preventive and curative community-level interventions that have been reported to reduce child mortality: Breastfeeding promotion, complementary feeding, vitamin A supplementation, Zinc for treatment of diarrhea, hand washing with soap, hygienic disposal of children's stools, oral rehydration solution (ORS), oral antibiotics for treatment of pneumonia, treatment for moderate acute malnutrition (MAM), and prevention of malaria using insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying (ITN/IRS). Using the Lives Saved Tool, we modeled the impact on child mortality of scaling up these 10 interventions from baseline coverage (2016) to ideal coverage (99%) by 2030 (ideal scale-up scenario) relative to business as usual (BAU) scenario (forecasted coverage based on prior coverage trends). Our outcome measures include number of child deaths prevented.

RESULTS

Compared to BAU scenario, ideal scale-up of the 10 interventions could prevent approximately 74,200 (sensitivity bounds 59,068-88,611) child deaths by 2030 including 10,100 (8210-11,870) deaths in Burundi, 10,300 (7831-12,619) deaths in Kenya, 4350 (3678-4958) deaths in Rwanda, 20,600 (16049-25,162) deaths in Uganda, and 28,900 (23300-34,002) deaths in the United Republic of Tanzania. The top four interventions (oral antibiotics for pneumonia, ORS, hand washing with soap, and treatment for MAM) account for over 75.0% of all deaths prevented in each EAC country: 78.4% in Burundi, 76.0% in Kenya, 81.8% in Rwanda, 91.0% in Uganda and 88.5% in the United Republic of Tanzania.

CONCLUSIONS

Scaling up interventions that can be delivered at community level by community health workers could contribute to substantial reduction of child mortality in EAC and could help the EAC region achieve child health-related SDG target. Our findings suggest that the top four community-level interventions could account for more than three-quarters of all deaths prevented across EAC countries. Going forward, costs of scaling up each intervention will be estimated to guide policy decisions including health resource allocations in EAC countries.

Projecting stunting and wasting under alternative scenarios in Odisha, India, 2015-2030: a Lives Saved Tool (LiST)-based approach

OBJECTIVE

Although nutrition-specific interventions are designed based on maternal, household and community-level correlates, no attempt has been made to project stunting and wasting and identify intervention priorities in India. The objective of this paper is to model the stunting and wasting in the state of Odisha, India by scaling up maternal and child health interventions under alternative scenarios.

DESIGN

This study primarily used data from National Family Health Survey 4, 2015-2016.

MEASURES

The LiST (Lives Saved Tool) software is used to model the nutritional outcomes and prioritise interventions. The projections were carried out under four alternative scenarios: scenario 1-if the coverage indicators continued based on past trends; scenario 2-scaled up to the level of the richest quintile; scenario 3-scaled up to that of Tamil Nadu; and scenario 4-scaled up to an aspirational coverage level.

RESULTS

In 2015, out of 3.52 million under-5 children in Odisha, around 1.20 million were stunted. By 2030, the numbers of stunted children will be 1.11 million under scenario 1, 1.07 million under scenario 2, 1.09 million under scenario 3 and 0.89 million under scenario 4. The projected stunting level will be 25% under scenario 4 and around 31% under all other scenarios. By 2030, the level of wasting will remain unchanged at 20% under the first three scenarios and 4.3% under scenario 4. Appropriate complementary feeding would avert about half of the total stunting cases under all four scenarios, followed by zinc supplementation. Water connection at home, washing hands with soap and improved sanitation are other effective interventions.

CONCLUSION

Sustaining the maternal and child health interventions, promoting evidence-based stunting and wasting reduction interventions, and a multisectoral approach can achieve the World Health Assembly targets and Sustainable Development Goals of undernutrition in Odisha.

LiST modelling with monitoring data to estimate impact on child mortality of an ORS and zinc programme with public sector providers in Bihar, India

Background

Many interventions have attempted to increase vulnerable and remote populations’ access to ORS and zinc to reduce child mortality from diarrhoea. However, the impact of these interventions is difficult to measure. From 2010 to 15, Micronutrient Initiative (MI), worked with the public sector in Bihar, India to enable community health workers to treat and report uncomplicated child diarrhoea with ORS and zinc. We describe how we estimated programme’s impact on child mortality with Lives Saved Tool (LiST) modelling and data from MI’s management information system (MIS). This study demonstrates that using LiST modelling and MIS data are viable options for evaluating programmes to reduce child mortality.

Methods

We used MI’s programme monitoring data to estimate coverage rates and LiST modelling software to estimate programme impact on child mortality. Four scenarios estimated the effects of different rates of programme scale-up and programme coverage on estimated child mortality by measuring children’s lives saved.

Results

The programme saved an estimated 806–975 children under-5 who had diarrhoea during five-year project phase. Increasing ORS and zinc coverage rates to 19.8% & 18.3% respectively under public sector coverage with effective treatment would have increased the programme’s impact on child mortality and could have achieved the project goal of saving 4200 children’s lives during the five-year programme.

Conclusions

Programme monitoring data can be used with LiST modelling software to estimate coverage rates and programme impact on child mortality. This modelling approach may cost less and yield estimates sooner than directly measuring programme impact with population-based surveys. However, users must be cautious about relying on modelled estimates of impact and ensure that the programme monitoring data used is complete and precise about the programme aspects that are modelled. Otherwise, LiST may mis-estimate impact on child mortality. Further, LiST software may require modifications to its built-in assumptions to capture programmatic inputs. LiST assumes that mortality rates and cause of death structure change only in response to changes in programme coverage. In Bihar, overall child mortality has decreased and diarrhoea seems to be less lethal than previously, but at present LiST does not adjust its estimates for these sorts of changes.

Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool

BACKGROUND

The worldwide burden of stillbirths is large, with an estimated 2.6 million babies stillborn in 2015 including 1.3 million dying during labour. The Every Newborn Action Plan set a stillbirth target of ≤12 per 1000 in all countries by 2030. Planning tools will be essential as countries set policy and plan investment to scale up interventions to meet this target. This paper summarises the approach taken for modelling the impact of scaling-up health interventions on stillbirths in the Lives Saved tool (LiST), and potential future refinements.

METHODS

The specific application to stillbirths of the general method for modelling the impact of interventions in LiST is described. The evidence for the effectiveness of potential interventions to reduce stillbirths are reviewed and the assumptions of the affected fraction of stillbirths who could potentially benefit from these interventions are presented. The current assumptions and their effects on stillbirth reduction are described and potential future improvements discussed.

RESULTS

High quality evidence are not available for all parameters in the LiST stillbirth model. Cause-specific mortality data is not available for stillbirths, therefore stillbirths are modelled in LiST using an attributable fraction approach by timing of stillbirths (antepartum/ intrapartum). Of 35 potential interventions to reduce stillbirths identified, eight interventions are currently modelled in LiST. These include childbirth care, induction for prolonged pregnancy, multiple micronutrient and balanced energy supplementation, malaria prevention and detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, diabetes and syphilis. For three of the interventions, childbirth care, detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and diabetes the estimate of effectiveness is based on expert opinion through a Delphi process. Only for malaria is coverage information available, with coverage estimated using expert opinion for all other interventions. Going forward, potential improvements identified include improving of effectiveness and coverage estimates for included interventions and addition of further interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Known effective interventions have the potential to reduce stillbirths and can be modelled using the LiST tool. Data for stillbirths are improving. Going forward the LiST tool should seek, where possible, to incorporate these improving data, and to continually be refined to provide an increasingly reliable tool for policy and programming purposes.

A Literature Review of the Effect of Malaria on Stunting

Background: The current version of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) maternal and child health impact modeling software does not include an effect of malaria on stunting.Objective: This literature review was undertaken to determine whether such a causal link should be included in the LiST model.Methods: The PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases were searched by using broad search terms. The searches returned a total of 4281 documents. Twelve studies from among the retrieved documents were included in the review according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria.Results: There was mixed evidence for an effect of malaria on stunting among longitudinal observational studies, and none of the randomized controlled trials of malaria interventions found an effect of the interventions on stunting.Conclusions: There is insufficient evidence to include malaria as a determinant of stunting or an effect of malaria interventions on stunting in the LiST model. The paucity and heterogeneity of the available literature were a major limitation. In addition, the studies included in the review consistently fulfilled their ethical responsibility to treat children under observation for malaria, which may have interfered with the natural history of the disease and prevented any observable effect on stunting or linear growth.

"It is good to take her early to the doctor" - mothers' understanding of childhood pneumonia symptoms and health care seeking in Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania

Background

Pneumonia is among the leading causes of avoidable deaths for young children globally. The main burden of mortality falls on children from poor and rural families who are less likely to obtain the treatment they need, highlighting inequities in access to effective care and treatment. Caretakers’ illness perceptions and care-seeking practices are of major importance for children with pneumonia to receive adequate care. This study qualitatively explores the caretaker concepts of childhood pneumonia in relation to treatment seeking behaviour and health worker management in Moshi urban district, Tanzania.

Methods

In May - July 2013 data was gathered through different qualitative data collection techniques including five focus group discussions (FGDs) with mothers of children under-five years of age. The FGDs involved free listing of pneumonia symptoms and video presentations of children with respiratory symptoms done, these were triangulated with ten case narratives with mothers of children admitted with pneumonia and eleven in-depth interviews with hospital health workers. Transcripts were coded and analysed using qualitative content analysis.

Results

Mothers demonstrated good awareness of common childhood illnesses including pneumonia, which was often associated with symptoms such as cough, flu, chest tightness, fever, and difficulty in breathing. Mothers had mixed views on causative factors and treatments options but generally preferred modern medicine for persisting and severe symptoms. However, all respondent reported access to health facilities as a barrier to care, associated with transport, personal safety and economic constraints.

Conclusion

Local illness concepts and traditional treatment options did not constitute barriers to care for pneumonia symptoms. Poor access to health facilities was the main barrier. Decentralisation of care through community health workers may improve access to care but needs to be combined with strengthened referral systems and accessible hospital care for those in need.

Modelling the cost of community interventions to reduce child mortality in South Africa using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the costs and impact on reducing child mortality of scaling up interventions that can be delivered by community health workers at community level from a provider's perspective.

SETTING

In this study, we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a module in the spectrum software. Within the spectrum software, LiST interacts with other modules, the AIDS Impact Module, Family Planning Module and Demography Projections Module (Dem Proj), to model the impact of more than 60 interventions that affect cause-specific mortality.

PARTICIPANTS

DemProj Based on National South African Data.

INTERVENTIONS

A total of nine interventions namely, breastfeeding promotion, complementary feeding, vitamin supplementation, hand washing with soap, hygienic disposal of children's stools, oral rehydration solution, oral antibiotics for the treatment of pneumonia, therapeutic feeding for wasting and treatment for moderate malnutrition.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Reducing child mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 9 interventions can prevent 8891 deaths by 2030. Hand washing with soap (21%) accounts for the highest number of deaths prevented, followed by therapeutic feeding (19%) and oral rehydration therapy (16%). The top 5 interventions account for 77% of all deaths prevented. At scale, an estimated cost of US$169.5 million (US$3 per capita) per year will be required in community health worker costs.

CONCLUSION

The use of community health workers offers enormous opportunities for saving lives. These programmes require appropriate financial investments. Findings from this study show what can be achieved if concerted effort is channelled towards the identified set of life-saving interventions.

A long way to go - Estimates of combined water, sanitation and hygiene coverage for 25 sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) are essential for a healthy and dignified life. International targets to reduce inadequate WASH coverage were set under the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, 1990-2015) and now the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs, 2016-2030). The MDGs called for halving the proportion of the population without access to adequate water and sanitation, whereas the SDGs call for universal access, require the progressive reduction of inequalities, and include hygiene in addition to water and sanitation. Estimating access to complete WASH coverage provides a baseline for monitoring during the SDG period. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has among the lowest rates of WASH coverage globally.

METHODS

The most recent available Demographic Household Survey (DHS) or Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) data for 25 countries in SSA were analysed to estimate national and regional coverage for combined water and sanitation (a combined MDG indicator for 'improved' access) and combined water with collection time within 30 minutes plus sanitation and hygiene (a combined SDG indicator for 'basic' access). Coverage rates were estimated separately for urban and rural populations and for wealth quintiles. Frequency ratios and percentage point differences for urban and rural coverage were calculated to give both relative and absolute measures of urban-rural inequality. Wealth inequalities were assessed by visual examination of coverage across wealth quintiles in urban and rural populations and by calculating concentration indices as standard measures of relative wealth related inequality that give an indication of how unevenly a health indicator is distributed across the wealth distribution.

RESULTS

Combined MDG coverage in SSA was 20%, and combined basic SDG coverage was 4%; an estimated 921 million people lacked basic SDG coverage. Relative measures of inequality were higher for combined basic SDG coverage than combined MDG coverage, but absolute inequality was lower. Rural combined basic SDG coverage was close to zero in many countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates help to quantify the scale of progress required to achieve universal WASH access in low-income countries, as envisaged under the water and sanitation SDG. Monitoring and reporting changes in the proportion of the national population with access to water, sanitation and hygiene may be useful in focusing WASH policy and investments towards the areas of greatest need.

Findings from a comprehensive diarrhoea prevention and treatment programme in Lusaka, Zambia

BACKGROUND

The Programme for the Awareness and Elimination of Diarrhoea (PAED) was a pilot comprehensive diarrhoea prevention and control programme aimed to reduce post-neonatal, all-cause under-five mortality by 15 % in Lusaka Province. Interventions included introduction of the rotavirus vaccine, improved clinical case management of diarrhoea, and a comprehensive community prevention and advocacy campaign on hand washing with soap, exclusive breastfeeding up to 6 months of age, and the use of ORS and Zinc. This study aimed to assess the impact of PAED on under-5 mortality.

METHODS

The study was a pre-post evaluation design. The Demographic and Health Survey style population-based two-stage approach was used to collect data at the beginning of the intervention and 3 years following the start of intervention implementation in Lusaka province. The primary outcome of interest was an all-cause, post-neonatal under-five mortality rate defined as the probability of dying after the 28th day and before the fifth birthday among children aged 1-59 months. The Kaplan-Meier time to event analysis was used to estimate the probability of death; multiplying this probability by 1000 to yield the post-neonatal mortality rate. Survival-time inverse probability weighting model was used to estimate Average Treatment Effect (ATE).

RESULTS

The percentage of children under age 5 who had diarrhoea in the last 2 weeks preceding the survey declined from 15.8 % (95 % CI: 15.2 %, 16.4 %) in 2012 to 12.7 % (95 % CI: 12.3 %, 13.2 %) in 2015. Over the same period, mortality in post-neonatal children under 5 years of age declined by 34 %, from an estimated rate of 29 deaths per 1000 live births (95 % CI: (26, 32) death per 1000 live births) to 19 deaths per 1000 live births (95 % CI: (16, 21) death per 1000 live births). When every child in the population of children aged 1-59 months is exposed to the intervention, the average time-to-death was estimated to be about 8 months more than when no child is exposed (ATE = 7.9; 95 % CI: 4.4,11.5; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Well-packaged diarrhoea preventive and treatment interventions delivered at the clinic and community-level could potentially reduce probability of death among children aged 1-59 months.

Status of vaccine research and development for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is one of the most common bacterial causes of diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality, particularly among infants and young children in developing countries. Still, the true impact on child and traveler health is likely underestimated. There are currently no licensed vaccines for ETEC, but studies indicate high public health impact, cost-effectiveness, and feasibility of immune protection through vaccination. ETEC vaccine development remains a World Health Organization priority. Traditionally, ETEC vaccine development efforts have focused on inducing antitoxin and anticolonization antigen immunity, as studies indicate that antibodies against both antigen types can contribute to protection and thus have potential for vaccines. Leading cellular vaccine candidates are ETVAX (a mixture of four inactivated strains) and ACE527 (a mixture of three live attenuated strains), both of which have been found to be safe and immunogenic in Phase 1/2 trials. ETVAX is the furthest along in development with descending-age studies already underway in Bangladesh. Other ETEC vaccine candidates based on protein subunits, toxoids (both LT and ST), or novel, more broadly conserved ETEC antigens are also under development. Of these, a protein adhesin-based subunit approach is the most advanced. Impact and economic models suggest favorable vaccine cost-effectiveness, which may help expand market interest in ETEC vaccines. Combination vaccine formulations may help improve the economic case for development and use, and better point-of-care diagnostics will help to raise awareness of the true health burden of ETEC and highlight the potential public health benefit of ETEC vaccine introduction. Better diagnostics and vaccine demand forecasting will also improve vaccine development financing and support accelerated uptake once a licensed vaccine becomes available.

Strategic planning for saving the lives of mothers, newborns and children and preventing stillbirths in KwaZulu-Natal province South Africa: modelling using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)

Background

KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa has the largest population of children under the age of five and experiences the highest number of child births per annum in the country. Its population has also been ravaged by the dual epidemics of HIV and TB and it has struggled to meet targets for maternal and child mortality. In South Africa’s federal system, provinces have decision-making power on the prioritization and allocation of resources within their jurisdiction. As part of strategic planning for 2015–2019, KwaZulu-Natal provincial authorities requested an assessment of current mortality levels in the province and identification and costing of priority interventions for saving additional maternal, newborn and child lives, as well as preventing stillbirths in the province.

Methods

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to determine the set of interventions, which could save the most additional maternal and child lives and prevent stillbirths from 2015–2019, and the costs of these. The impact of family planning was assessed using two scenarios by increasing baseline coverage of modern contraception by 0.5 percentage points or 1 percentage point per annum.

Results

A total of 7,043 additional child and 297 additional maternal lives could be saved, and 2,000 stillbirths could be prevented over five years. Seventeen interventions account for 75 % of additional lives saved. Increasing family planning contributes to a further reduction of up to 137 maternal and 3,168 child deaths. The set of priority interventions scaled up to achievable levels, with no increase in contraception would require an additional US$91 million over five years or US$1.72 per capita population per year. By increasing contraceptive prevalence by one percentage point per year, overall costs to scale up to achievable coverage package, decrease by US$24 million over five years.

Conclusion

Focused attention on a set of key interventions could have a significant impact on averting stillbirths and maternal and neonatal mortality in KwaZulu-Natal. Concerted effort to prioritize family planning will save more lives overall and has the potential to decrease costs in other areas of maternal and child care.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2661-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Acute diarrhea: evidence-based management

OBJECTIVES

To describe the current recommendations on the best management of pediatric patients with acute diarrheal disease.

DATA SOURCE

PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar.

DATA SUMMARY

There has been little progress in the use of oral rehydration salts (ORS) in recent decades, despite being widely reported by international guidelines. Several studies have been performed to improve the effectiveness of ORS. Intravenous hydration with isotonic saline solution, quickly infused, should be given in cases of severe dehydration. Nutrition should be ensured after the dehydration resolution, and is essential for intestinal and immune health. Dietary restrictions are usually not beneficial and may be harmful. Symptomatic medications have limited indication and antibiotics are indicated in specific cases, such as cholera and moderate to severe shigellosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Hydration and nutrition are the interventions with the greatest impact on the course of acute diarrhea.

Harmful practices in the management of childhood diarrhea in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Harmful practices in the management of childhood diarrhea are associated with negative health outcomes, and conflict with WHO treatment guidelines. These practices include restriction of fluids, breast milk and/or food intake during diarrhea episodes, and incorrect use of modern medicines. We conducted a systematic review of English-language literature published since 1990 to assess the documented prevalence of these four harmful practices, and beliefs, motivations, and contextual factors associated with harmful practices in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We electronically searched PubMed, Embase, Ovid Global Health, and the WHO Global Health Library. Publications reporting the prevalence or substantive findings on beliefs, motivations, or context related to at least one of the four harmful practices were included, regardless of study design or representativeness of the sample population.

RESULTS

Of the 114 articles included in the review, 79 reported the prevalence of at least one harmful practice and 35 studies reported on beliefs, motivations, or context for harmful practices. Most studies relied on sub-national population samples and many were limited to small sample sizes. Study design, study population, and definition of harmful practices varied across studies. Reported prevalence of harmful practices varied greatly across study populations, and we were unable to identify clearly defined patterns across regions, countries, or time periods. Caregivers reported that diarrhea management practices were based on the advice of others (health workers, relatives, community members), as well as their own observations or understanding of the efficacy of certain treatments for diarrhea. Others reported following traditionally held beliefs on the causes and cures for specific diarrheal diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Available evidence suggests that harmful practices in diarrhea treatment are common in some countries with a high burden of diarrhea-related mortality. These practices can reduce correct management of diarrheal disease in children and result in treatment failure, sustained nutritional deficits, and increased diarrhea mortality. The lack of consistency in sampling, measurement, and reporting identified in this literature review highlights the need to document harmful practices using standard methods of measurement and reporting for the continued reduction of diarrhea mortality.

Reducing diarrhoea deaths in South Africa: costs and effects of scaling up essential interventions to prevent and treat diarrhoea in under-five children

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoea is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in South African children, accounting for approximately 20% of under-five deaths. Though progress has been made in scaling up multiple interventions to reduce diarrhoea in the last decade, challenges still remain. In this paper, we model the cost and impact of scaling up 13 interventions to prevent and treat childhood diarrhoea in South Africa.

METHODS

Modelling was done using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Using 2014 as the baseline, intervention coverage was increased from 2015 until 2030. Three scale up scenarios were compared: by 2030, 1) coverage of all interventions increased by ten percentage points; 2) intervention coverage increased by 20 percentage points; 3) and intervention coverage increased to 99%.

RESULTS

The model estimates 13 million diarrhoea cases at baseline. Scaling up intervention coverage averted between 3 million and 5.3 million diarrhoea cases. In 2030, diarrhoeal deaths are expected to reduce from an estimated 5,500 in 2014 to 2,800 in scenario one, 1,400 in scenario two and 100 in scenario three. The additional cost of implementing all 13 interventions will range from US$510 million (US$9 per capita) to US$960 million (US$18 per capita), of which the health system costs range between US$40 million (less than US$1 per capita) and US$170 million (US$3 per capita).

CONCLUSION

Scaling up 13 essential interventions could have a substantial impact on reducing diarrhoeal deaths in South African children, which would contribute toward reducing child mortality in the post-MDG era. Preventive measures are key and the government should focus on improving water, sanitation and hygiene. The investments required to achieve these results seem feasible considering current health expenditure.