Planning long lasting insecticide treated net campaigns: should households' existing nets be taken into account?

Annual distributions of insecticide-treated nets to schoolchildren and other key populations to maintain higher ITN access than with mass campaigns: a modelling study for mainland Tanzania

Background

Since 2013, the National Malaria Control Programme in mainland Tanzania has deployed annual distributions of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) through primary schools to maintain ITN access and use. This School Net Programme (SNP) is slated to be used throughout mainland Tanzania by 2023. This modelling study projects ITN access under different ITN distribution strategies and quantification approaches.

Methods

A stock and flow model with a Tanzania-specific ITN decay rate was used to calculate annual net crops for four different ITN distribution strategies, varying quantification approaches within each strategy. Annual nets-per-capita (NPC) was derived from net crop and a standardized population projection. Nonparametric conditional quartile functions for the proportion of the population with access to an ITN (ITN access) as a function of NPC were used to predict ITN access and its variability. The number of ITNs required under the varying quantification approaches for the period 2022–2030 was calculated.

Results

Annual SNP quantified using a “population times 15%” approach maintained ITN access between 80 and 90%, when combined with reproductive and child health (RCH) ITN distribution, requiring 133.2 million ITNs. The same strategy quantified with “population times 22%” maintained ITN access at or above 90%, requiring 175.5 million ITNs. Under 5-year mass campaigns with RCH distribution for pregnant women and infants, ITN access reached 90% post-campaign and fell to 27–35% in the 4th year post-campaign, requiring 120.5 million ITNs over 8 years. 3-yearly mass campaigns with RCH reached 100% ITN access post-campaign and fell to 70% in the 3rd year post-campaign, requiring 154.4 million ITNs.

Conclusion

Given an ITN retention time in Tanzania of 2.15 years, the model predicts that mass campaigns conducted every 3 years in mainland Tanzania will not maintain ITN access at target levels of 80%, even with strong RCH channels. Mainland Tanzania can however expect to maintain ITN access at 80% or above by quantifying SNP using “population × 15%”, in addition to RCH ITN delivery. This strategy requires 14% fewer ITNs than a 3-year campaign strategy while providing more consistent ITN coverage. Meeting the targets of 80% ITN use would require maintaining 90% ITN access, achievable using a “population times 22%” quantification approach for SNP.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04272-w.

Factors associated with ownership and utilization of insecticide treated nets among children under five years in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Insecticide-treated net (ITN) is a cost-effective means to control malaria and morbidity in under-five children. This study synthesizes the factors associated with using the ITN as a malaria prevention tool in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

There was an advanced search of four electronic databases, including PubMed Central, CINAHL, EMBASE, and Google Scholar, and identified articles between 2016 to April 2021. Following the title, abstract and full-text reading, 13 articles were deemed appropriate for this review. All the researchers developed, discussed, and accepted a matrix to extract relevant information from the studies. A convergent synthesis was adopted and allowed for integrating qualitative, quantitative, and mixed-method studies and transforming them into qualitative findings.

Results

Household and caregiver related factors that influenced utilization of the ITN were, Household heads having two or more sleeping places, a knowledge that ITN prevents malaria, the presence of hanging ITNs, high literacy, living female-headed households, birth spacing, unmarried mothers, and antenatal clinic attendance promoted utilization. Perceived malaria risk was a critical determinant of ITN ownership and utilization. Some factors that hindered the use of the ITN included hotness of the weather, absence of visible mosquitoes, cost, inadequate number, rooms designs, unaffordability, insufficient knowledge on causes of malaria, and poor attitude to use. Specific ITN factors that hindered use were color, chemicals use, odor, and shape.

Conclusion

It is important to use integrated multi-sectoral and culturally appropriate interventions to encourage households to prioritize and utilize the ITN in under-5 children.

Incidence and consequences of damage to insecticide-treated mosquito nets in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Efforts to improve the impact of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) should be informed by understanding of the causes of decay in effect. Holes in LLINs have been estimated to account for 7-11% of loss in effect on vectorial capacity for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in an analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys of LLINs in Kenya. This does not account for the effect of holes as a cause of net attrition or non-use, which cannot be measured using only cross-sectional data. There is a need for estimates of how much these indirect effects of physical damage on use and attrition contribute to decay in effectiveness of LLINs.

METHODS

Use, physical integrity, and survival were assessed in a cohort of 4514 LLINs followed for up to 4 years in Kenya. Flow diagrams were used to illustrate how the status of nets, in terms of categories of use, physical integrity, and attrition, changed between surveys carried out at 6-month intervals. A compartment model defined in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) was used to estimate the transition rates between the categories. Effects of physical damage to LLINs on use and attrition were quantified by simulating counterfactuals in which there was no damage.

RESULTS

Allowing for the direct effect of holes, the effect on use, and the effect on attrition, 18% of the impact on vectorial capacity was estimated to be lost because of damage. The estimated median lifetime of the LLINs was 2.9 years, but this was extended to 5.7 years in the counterfactual without physical damage. Nets that were in use were more likely to be in a damaged state than unused nets but use made little direct difference to LLIN lifetimes. Damage was reported as the reason for attrition for almost half of attrited nets, but the model estimated that almost all attrited nets had suffered some damage before attrition.

CONCLUSIONS

Full quantification of the effects of damage will require measurement of the supply of new nets and of household stocks of unused nets, and also of their impacts on both net use and retention. The timing of mass distribution campaigns is less important than ensuring sufficient supply. In the Kenyan setting, nets acquired damage rapidly once use began and the damage led to rapid attrition. Increasing the robustness of nets could substantially increase their lifetime and impact but the impact of LLIN programmes on malaria transmission is ultimately limited by levels of use. Longitudinal analyses of net integrity data from different settings are needed to determine the importance of physical damage to nets as a driver of attrition and non-use, and the importance of frequent use as a cause of physical damage in different contexts.

Evaluation of bio-efficacy and durability of long-lasting insecticidal nets distributed by malaria elimination programme in Eastern India

BACKGROUND

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the most favoured vector control tools worldwide. Timely monitoring and evaluation of LLINs is important to sustain the impact of this promising vector control method and for replacement of worn-out and those rendered ineffective. During the mid-2017, LLINs were distributed by the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP) in high malaria endemic districts of the eastern coastal state of Odisha. The study was carried out to assess the field performance of the LLINs post 30 months of distribution in Koraput district of Odisha state.

METHODS

A total of 130 households were randomly selected from three villages of Laxmipur CHC in Koraput district, Odisha, India; one each from hilltop, foothill and plain terrain. The net users were interviewed to elicit information on usage, washing practices, physical integrity, bio-efficacy and survivorship of LLINs to confirm the claimed three-year life of the LLINs.

RESULTS

74.8% of the LLINs were physically present after 30 months of distribution. The numbers (%) of LLINs used previous night varied from 30 to 61% between study villages. 74% respondents were using the LLINs throughout the year and 26% only seasonally. Of the total, 85% of the nets were reported to be washed and 95% nets were dried under shade as recommended. Altogether, 58% of the surveyed nets were found torn with holes. Of these, 74 (57%) nets were in good condition, 10 (8%) nets were in serviceable and 45 (35%) nets were badly torn and needed replacement. A total of 45 (93.75%), 68 (80%) and 71 (63.8%) LLINs were physically present in hilltop, foothill and plain villages, respectively. The LLINs did meet the efficacy criteria, given the 100% mortality to the exposed Anopheles jeyporiensis mosquitoes post 30 months distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study were communicated to the programme officials of the state and LLINs were replenished soon after 31st month post-distribution of LLINs.

Sustaining LLIN coverage with continuous distribution: the school net programme in Tanzania

Most malaria-endemic countries have struggled in the past decade to establish effective national-scale continuous distribution mechanisms for long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). Since the implementation of the Tanzania National Voucher Scheme in 2004 and mass-distribution campaigns in 2009–2011 and 2015–2016, Tanzania has been committed to finding new and innovative ways of achieving and maintaining universal bed net coverage. Planning for the School Net Programme (SNP) began in 2011 and in 2013, the country piloted a SNP in three regions. Nets were distributed annually to children attending schools in selected primary and secondary grades. Intra-family re-distribution was assumed, and hence the family as a whole, rather than just the children themselves, were the targeted beneficiaries. The programme has since expanded to 14 regions and has seen six rounds of annual distribution. In its fifth year, 3 million nets were distributed at a cost of USD 3.64 per net and USD 0.60 per person-year of protection (including the net). ITN access and use were maintained at a high level (~ 50–75%) over the first 4 years of distribution within selected evaluation areas, even in the absence of a mass distribution event. Net distribution through primary schools has proven to be a feasible and effective strategy for maintaining consistently high coverage in Tanzania.

Tick burden in Bos taurus cattle and its relationship with heat stress in three agroecological zones in the tropics of Colombia

BACKGROUND

Ticks have a negative effect on dairy and beef cattle production systems around the world, with the concomitant risk they represent for the transmission of some important infectious diseases. Colombian cattle breeds are distributed across different agroecological regions and are exposed to different environmental challenges. In humid and warmer climates such as those from the tropics, tick burden and heat stress are important factors that can compromise livestock performance. The aim of this study was to characterize tick burden in four Colombian cattle breeds and evaluate the relationship between heat stress and tick burden in Bos taurus cattle under tropical conditions. Tick counting was conducted in 1332 cattle from Romosinuano (ROMO), Costeño con Cuernos (CCC), San Martinero (SM) and Blanco Orejinegro (BON) breeds, located in the Caribbean, Orinoquia and Andean regions. Vital signs and environmental variables were taken to calculate an adaptability index (AI) and a temperature humidity index (THI). An AI < 2 indicates maximum adaptability while an AI ≥ 2 indicates a state of lower adaptability. In beef cattle, productivity starts to be affected by heat stress when environmental conditions allow an estimation of a THI > 75.

RESULTS

Results showed a differing distribution of ticks on the body of individuals that varied according to the agroecological region. There was a significant effect of breed, sex, family, age and live weight on cattle tick burden. The lowest tick burden was observed in the ROMO breed (12.8 ± 2.6), while the highest tick burden was observed in CCC (31.8 ± 2.3), which were located in the same agroecological region. SM and ROMO animals with an AI > 2 had a higher tick burden than their counterparts that had an AI < 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Cattle breed, sex, age and live weight affect the tick burden in Bos taurus Colombian cattle breeds. The tick burden is higher in cattle with lower adaptability to heat stress. Moreover, it decreases as heat stress levels increase in a tropical environment. The interaction between tick burden and environmental heat stress can be affected by characteristics of the agroecological region itself, the breed and the genetic resistance of the individual tick, as well as the thermal adaptability of cattle.

Assessing whether universal coverage with insecticide-treated nets has been achieved: is the right indicator being used?

Background/methods

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are the primary tool for malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa, and have been responsible for an estimated two-thirds of the reduction in the global burden of malaria in recent years. While the ultimate goal is high levels of ITN use to confer protection against infected mosquitoes, it is widely accepted that ITN use must be understood in the context of ITN availability. However, despite nearly a decade of universal coverage campaigns, no country has achieved a measured level of 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people in a national survey. Eighty-six public datasets from 33 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (2005–2017) were used to explore the causes of failure to achieve universal coverage at the household level, understand the relationships between the various ITN indicators, and further define their respective programmatic utility.

Results

The proportion of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people did not exceed 60% at the national level in any survey, except in Uganda’s 2014 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). At 80% population ITN access, the expected proportion of households with 1 ITN for 2 people is only 60% (p = 0.003 R² = 0.92), because individuals in households with some but not enough ITNs are captured as having access, but the household does not qualify as having 1 ITN for 2 people. Among households with 7–9 people, mean population ITN access was 41.0% (95% CI 36.5–45.6), whereas only 6.2% (95% CI 4.0–8.3) of these same households owned at least 1 ITN for 2 people. On average, 60% of the individual protection measured by the population access indicator is obscured when focus is put on the household “universal coverage” indicator. The practice of limiting households to a maximum number of ITNs in mass campaigns severely restricts the ability of large households to obtain enough ITNs for their entire family.

Conclusions

The two household-level indicators—one representing minimal coverage, the other only ‘universal’ coverage—provide an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of personal protection and the success of an ITN distribution programme. Under current ITN distribution strategies, the global malaria community cannot expect countries to reach 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people at a national level. When programmes assess the success of ITN distribution activities, population access to ITNs should be considered as the better indicator of “universal coverage,” because it is based on people as the unit of analysis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2505-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Design, Implementation, and Evaluation of a School Insecticide-Treated Net Distribution Program in Cross River State, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

In 2013, the World Health Organization recommended distribution through schools, health facilities, community health workers, and mass campaigns to maintain coverage with insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). We piloted school distribution in 3 local government areas (LGAs) of Cross River State, Nigeria.

METHODS

From January to March 2011, all 3 study sites participated in a mass ITN campaign. Baseline data were collected in June 2012 (N=753 households) and school distribution began afterward. One ITN per student was distributed to 4 grades once a year in public schools. Obubra LGA distributed ITNs in 2012, 2013, and 2014 and Ogoja LGA in 2013 and 2014 while Ikom LGA served as a comparison site. Pregnant women in all sites were eligible to receive ITNs through standard antenatal care (ANC). Endline survey data (N=1,450 households) were collected in March 2014. Data on ITN ownership, population access to an ITN, and ITN use were gathered and analyzed. Statistical analysis used contingency tables and chi-squared tests for univariate analysis, and a concentration index was calculated to assess equity in ITN ownership.

RESULTS

Between baseline and endline, household ownership of at least 1 ITN increased in the intervention sites, from 50% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 44.7, 54.3) to 76% (95% CI: 71.2, 81.0) in Ogoja and from 51% (95% CI: 35.3, 66.7) to 78% (95% CI: 71.5, 83.1) in Obubra, as did population access to ITN, from 36% (95% CI: 32.0, 39.5) to 53% (95% CI: 48.0, 58.0) in Ogoja and from 34% (95% CI: 23.2, 45.6) to 55% in Obubra (95% CI: 48.4, 60.9). In contrast, ITN ownership declined in the comparison site, from 64% (95% CI: 56.4, 70.8) to 43% (95% CI: 37.4, 49.4), as did population ITN access, from 47% (95% CI: 40.0, 53.7) to 26% (95% CI: 21.9, 29.9). Ownership of school ITNs was nearly as equitable (concentration index 0.06 [95% CI: 0.02, 0.11]) as for campaign ITNs (-0.03 [95% CI: -0.08, 0.02]), and there was no significant oversupply or undersupply among households with ITNs. Schools were the most common source of ITNs at endline and very few households (<2%) had nets from both school and ANC.

CONCLUSION

ITN distribution through schools and ANC provide complementary reach and can play an effective role in achieving and maintaining universal coverage. More research is needed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such continuous distribution channels in combination with, or as a potential replacement for, subsequent mass campaigns.

Evaluation of a continuous community-based ITN distribution pilot in Lainya County, South Sudan 2012-2013

Background

Continuous distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) has now been accepted as one way of sustaining ITN universal coverage. Community-based channels offer an interesting means of delivering ITNs to households to sustain universal ITN coverage. The objective of this study was to provide proof of concept for this channel.

Methods

A 9-month, community-based, distribution pilot was implemented beginning 1 year after a mass campaign in Lainya County, South Sudan from 2012 to 2013. Following social mobilization, community members could request an ITN from a net coupon holder. Eligibility criteria included having lost an ITN, giving birth outside of the health facility, or not having enough ITNs for all household members. After verification, households could exchange the coupon for an ITN at a distribution point. The evaluation was a pre/post design using representative household surveys with two-stage cluster sampling and a sample size of 600 households per survey.

Results

At endline, 78% of respondents were aware of the scheme and 89% of those also received an ITN through community-based distribution. Population access to ITNs nearly doubled, from 38% at baseline to 66% after the pilot. Household ownership of any ITN and enough ITNs (1 for 2 people) also increased significantly, from 66 to 82% and 19 to 46%, respectively. Community-based distribution was the only source of ITNs for 53.4% of households. The proportion of the population using an ITN last night increased from 22.7% at baseline to 53.9% at endline. A logistic regression model indicates that although behaviour change communication was positively associated with an increase in ITN use, access to enough nets was the greatest determinant of use.

Conclusions

ITN access and use improved significantly in the study area during the pilot, coming close to universal coverage targets. This pilot serves as proof of concept for the community-based distribution methodology implemented as a mechanism to sustain ITN universal coverage. Longer periods of implementation should be evaluated to determine whether community-based distribution can successfully maintain ITN coverage beyond the short term, and reach all wealth quintiles equitably.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-2020-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evaluation of community-based continuous distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets in Toamasina II District, Madagascar

Background

Continuous distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) is thought to be an effective mechanism to maintain ITN ownership and access between or in the absence of mass campaigns, but evidence is limited. A community-based ITN distribution pilot was implemented and evaluated in Toamasina II District, Madagascar, to assess this new channel for continuous ITN distribution.

Methods

Beginning 9 months after the December 2012 mass campaign, a community-based distribution pilot ran for an additional 9 months, from September 2013 to June 2014. Households requested ITN coupons from community agents in their village. After verification by the agents, households exchanged the coupon for an ITN at a distribution point. The evaluation was a two-stage cluster survey with a sample size of 1125 households. Counterfactual ITN ownership and access were calculated by excluding ITNs received through the community pilot.

Results

At the end of the pilot, household ownership of any ITN was 96.5%, population access to ITN was 81.5 and 61.5% of households owned at least 1 ITN for every 2 people. Without the ITNs provided through the community channel, household ownership of any ITN was estimated at 74.6%, population access to an ITN at 55.5%, and households that owned at least 1 ITN for 2 people at only 34.7%, 18 months after the 2012 campaign. Ownership of community-distributed ITNs was higher among the poorest wealth quintiles. Over 80% of respondents felt the community scheme was fair and simple to use.

Conclusions

Household ITN ownership and population ITN access exceeded RBM targets after the 9-month community distribution pilot. The pilot successfully provided coupons and ITNs to households requesting them, particularly for the least poor wealth quintiles, and the scheme was well-perceived by communities. Further research is needed to determine whether community-based distribution can sustain ITN ownership and access over the long term, how continuous availability of ITNs affects household net replacement behaviour, and whether community-based distribution is cost-effective when combined with mass campaigns, or if used with other continuous channels instead of mass campaigns.

Coverage and system efficiencies of insecticide-treated nets in Africa from 2000 to 2017

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria control are widespread but coverage remains inadequate. We developed a Bayesian model using data from 102 national surveys, triangulated against delivery data and distribution reports, to generate year-by-year estimates of four ITN coverage indicators. We explored the impact of two potential 'inefficiencies': uneven net distribution among households and rapid rates of net loss from households. We estimated that, in 2013, 21% (17%-26%) of ITNs were over-allocated and this has worsened over time as overall net provision has increased. We estimated that rates of ITN loss from households are more rapid than previously thought, with 50% lost after 23 (20-28) months. We predict that the current estimate of 920 million additional ITNs required to achieve universal coverage would in reality yield a lower level of coverage (77% population access). By improving efficiency, however, the 920 million ITNs could yield population access as high as 95%.

Progress in mosquito net coverage in Papua New Guinea

Background

Since 2004, the Global Fund-supported National Malaria Control Programme of Papua New Guinea (PNG) has been implementing country-wide free long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) distribution campaigns. In 2009, after the first distribution, only 32.5% of the population used a LLIN, mainly due to an insufficient number of nets available. This study investigated changes in mosquito net ownership and use following the continued free distribution of LLINs across PNG.

Methods

Five villages from each province and 30 households from each village were randomly sampled in a country-wide household survey in 2010/11. A structured questionnaire administered to household heads recorded information on mosquito net ownership and use alongside household characteristics. Revised ownership and access indicators were applied in the analysis to reveal coverage gaps.

Results

The survey covered 1,996 households in 77 villages. Ownership of at least one LLIN was reported by 81.8% of households, compared to 64.6% in 2009 (P = 0.002). Sufficient LLINs to cover all household members (one net per two people) were found in 41.3% of the households (21.4% in 2009, P < 0.001). Of all household members, 61.4% had access to a LLIN within their household (44.3% in 2009 P = 0.002), and 48.3% slept under a LLIN (32.5% in 2009, P = 0.001). LLIN use in children under five years amounted to 58.2%, compared to 39.5% in 2009 (P < 0.001). Significant regional differences in coverage and changes over time were observed. A recent LLIN distribution was a key determinant of LLIN ownership (adj. OR = 3.46) while families in high quality houses would frequently not own a LLIN (adj. OR = 0.09). Residents were more likely to use LLINs than household guests (OR = 2.04).

Conclusions

Repeated LLIN distribution has led to significant increases in mosquito net ownership and use with few regional exceptions. Additional nets are required in areas where access is low, while major efforts are required to encourage the use of existing nets in region where access is high but use remains low. Complementary vector control approaches should also be considered in such settings.

A tracking tool for long-lasting insecticidal (mosquito) net intervention following a 2011 national distribution in Benin

Background

Following a mass distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in Benin, we used WHO guidelines to develop an assessment tool which is described in this report. It involved assessment of the three WHO indicators: survivorship, integrity and bio-efficacy.

Methods

To evaluate the assessment tool, we selected four communities, two in the Southern part of the country, and two in the North. One of the two assessment communities in each geographic setting had ready access to water and a higher reported frequency of washing LLINs. It was assumed that nets in communities with greater washing frequencies would show greater loss of durability. If the tool was sensitive enough to detect such differences, the field testing would confirm its suitability for general use in different settings in Benin. While durability indicators of survival and fabric integrity were quantified using standard WHO methodology, bio-efficacy was assessed using a ‘new’ alternative (to the WHO bioassay test), involving gas chromatography. Additionally, data management used current internet technology for ‘real time’ analysis at a central monitoring location.

Results

While no difference in survivorship was observed between sites with ready access to water for washing, both in the North and the South, there was a significant difference in integrity. In the South and in the North, nets from sites near water (Kessounou and Malanville) showed greater damage to integrity than did the nets from Allada and Kandi (sites far from water). As expected, LLIN integrity was significantly lower when a community was near water (p < 0.01). Bio-efficacy measurements, based on GC, were found to be so variable.

Conclusion

A rapid decrease of the LLINs fabric integrity was observed in areas near water for washing following the first 6 months post-distribution. Due to the way that the insecticide is incorporated into the LLIN fiber and its migration to the surface, confounding results were observed with the GC analysis suggesting that the WHO bio-efficacy method may also be similarly affected. The report of other assessments could help to better understand the durability of the LLINs.

Sustaining fragile gains: the need to maintain coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets for malaria control and likely implications of not doing so

Global commitment to malaria control has greatly increased over the last decade. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have become a core intervention of national malaria control strategies and over 450 million nets were distributed in sub-Saharan Africa between 2008 and 2012. Despite the impressive gains made as a result of increased investment in to malaria control, such gains remain fragile. Existing funding commitments for LLINs in the pipeline to 2016 were collated for 40 sub-Saharan African countries. The population-based model NetCALC was used to estimate the potential LLIN coverage achievable with these commitments and identify remaining gaps, and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate likely consequences for mortality impact if these gaps remain unfilled. Overall, countries calculated a total need of 806 million LLINs for 2013-16. Current funding commitments meet just over half of this need, leaving approximately 374 million LLINs unfunded, most of which are needed to maintain coverage in 2015 and 2016. An estimated additional 938,500 child lives (uncertainty range: 559,400–1,364,200) could be saved from 2013 through 2016 with existing funding (relative to 2009 LLIN coverage taken as the ‘baseline’ for this analysis); if the funding gap were closed this would increase to 1,180,500 lives saved (uncertainty range: 707,000–1,718,900). Overall, the funding gap equates to approximately 242,000 avoidable malaria-attributable deaths amongst under-fives. Substantial additional resources will need to be mobilized to meet the full LLIN need of sub-Saharan countries to maintain universal coverage. Unless these resources are mobilized, the impressive gains made to date will not be sustained and tens of thousands of avoidable child deaths will occur.