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Feigin VL, Owolabi MO. Pragmatic solutions to reduce the global burden of stroke: a World Stroke Organization-Lancet Neurology Commission. Lancet Neurol 2023; 22:1160-1206. [PMID: 37827183 PMCID: PMC10715732 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(23)00277-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/14/2023]
Abstract
Stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide. The burden of disability after a stroke is also large, and is increasing at a faster pace in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Alarmingly, the incidence of stroke is increasing in young and middle-aged people (ie, age <55 years) globally. Should these trends continue, Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 (reducing the burden of stroke as part of the general target to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases by a third by 2030) will not be met. In this Commission, we forecast the burden of stroke from 2020 to 2050. We project that stroke mortality will increase by 50%—from 6·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 6·0 million–7·1 million) in 2020, to 9·7 million (8·0 million–11·6 million) in 2050—with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) growing over the same period from 144·8 million (133·9 million–156·9 million) in 2020, to 189·3 million (161·8 million–224·9 million) in 2050. These projections prompted us to do a situational analysis across the four pillars of the stroke quadrangle: surveillance, prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation. We have also identified the barriers to, and facilitators for, the achievement of these four pillars. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) The sum of the years of life lost as a result of premature mortality from a disease and the years lived with a disability associated with prevalent cases of the disease in a population. One DALY represents the loss of the equivalent of one year of full health On the basis of our assessment, we have identified and prioritised several recommendations. For each of the four pillars (surveillance, prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation), we propose pragmatic solutions for the implementation of evidence-based interventions to reduce the global burden of stroke. The estimated direct (ie, treatment and rehabilitation) and indirect (considering productivity loss) costs of stroke globally are in excess of US$891 billion annually. The pragmatic solutions we put forwards for urgent implementation should help to mitigate these losses, reduce the global burden of stroke, and contribute to achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, the WHO Intersectoral Global Action Plan on epilepsy and other neurological disorders (2022–2031), and the WHO Global Action Plan for prevention and control of non-communicable diseases. Reduction of the global burden of stroke, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, by implementing primary and secondary stroke prevention strategies and evidence-based acute care and rehabilitation services is urgently required. Measures to facilitate this goal include: the establishment of a framework to monitor and assess the burden of stroke (and its risk factors) and stroke services at a national level; the implementation of integrated population-level and individual-level prevention strategies for people at any increased risk of cerebrovascular disease, with emphasis on early detection and control of hypertension; planning and delivery of acute stroke care services, including the establishment of stroke units with access to reperfusion therapies for ischaemic stroke and workforce training and capacity building (and monitoring of quality indicators for these services nationally, regionally, and globally); the promotion of interdisciplinary stroke care services, training for caregivers, and capacity building for community health workers and other health-care providers working in stroke rehabilitation; and the creation of a stroke advocacy and implementation ecosystem that includes all relevant communities, organisations, and stakeholders. The Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valery L Feigin
- National Institute for Stroke and Applied Neurosciences, Faculty of Health and Environmental Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand.
| | - Mayowa O Owolabi
- Centre for Genomics and Precision Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria; Blossom Specialist Medical Centre, Ibadan, Nigeria.
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Knappett M, Hooft A, Maqsood MB, Lavoie PM, Kortz T, Mehta S, Duby J, Akech S, Maina M, Carter R, Popescu CR, Daftary R, Mugisha NK, Mwesigwa D, Kabakyenga J, Kumbakumba E, Ansermino JM, Kissoon N, Mutekanga A, Hau D, Moschovis P, Kangwa M, Chen C, Firnberg M, Glomb N, Argent A, Reid SJ, Bhutta A, Wiens MO. Verbal Autopsy to Assess Postdischarge Mortality in Children With Suspected Sepsis in Uganda. Pediatrics 2023; 152:e2023062011. [PMID: 37800272 PMCID: PMC11006254 DOI: 10.1542/peds.2023-062011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/28/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Reducing child mortality in low-income countries is constrained by a lack of vital statistics. In the absence of such data, verbal autopsies provide an acceptable method to determining attributable causes of death. The objective was to assess potential causes of pediatric postdischarge mortality in children younger than age 5 years (under-5) originally admitted for suspected sepsis using verbal autopsies. METHODS Secondary analysis of verbal autopsy data from children admitted to 6 hospitals across Uganda from July 2017 to March 2020. Structured verbal autopsy interviews were conducted for all deaths within 6 months after discharge. Two physicians independently classified a primary cause of death, up to 4 alternative causes, and up to 5 contributing conditions using the Start-Up Mortality List, with discordance resolved by consensus. RESULTS Verbal autopsies were completed for 361 (98.6%) of the 366 (5.9%) children who died among 6191 discharges (median admission age: 5.4 months [interquartile range, 1.8-16.7]; median time to mortality: 28 days [interquartile range, 9-74]). Most deaths (62.3%) occurred in the community. Leading primary causes of death, assigned in 356 (98.6%) of cases, were pneumonia (26.2%), sepsis (22.1%), malaria (8.5%), and diarrhea (7.9%). Common contributors to death were malnutrition (50.5%) and anemia (25.7%). Reviewers were less confident in their causes of death for neonates than older children (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS Postdischarge mortality frequently occurred in the community in children admitted for suspected sepsis in Uganda. Analyses of the probable causes for these deaths using verbal autopsies suggest potential areas for interventions, focused on early detection of infections, as well as prevention and treatment of underlying contributors such as malnutrition and anemia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martina Knappett
- Institute for Global Health, British Columbia Children’s & Women’s Hospital, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Anneka Hooft
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Muhammad Bilal Maqsood
- Division of Neonatology, Department of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Pascal M. Lavoie
- Division of Neonatology, Department of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
- British Columbia Children’s Hospital Research Institute, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Teresa Kortz
- Division of Critical Care, Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Sonia Mehta
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Jessica Duby
- Department of Pediatrics, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
| | - Samuel Akech
- Kenya Medical Research Institute/Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research–Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Michuki Maina
- Health Services Research Group, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Rebecca Carter
- Division of Neonatology, Department of Pediatrics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California
| | - Constantin R. Popescu
- British Columbia Children’s Hospital Research Institute, Vancouver, Canada
- Division of Neonatology, Department of Pediatrics, Université Laval, Québec, Canada
| | - Rajesh Daftary
- Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | | | | | - Jerome Kabakyenga
- Department of Community Health, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda
| | - Elias Kumbakumba
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda
| | - J. Mark Ansermino
- Institute for Global Health, British Columbia Children’s & Women’s Hospital, Vancouver, Canada
- Department of Anesthesiology, Pharmacology & Therapeutics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Niranjan Kissoon
- Institute for Global Health, British Columbia Children’s & Women’s Hospital, Vancouver, Canada
- Department of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | | | - Duncan Hau
- Department of Pediatrics, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York
| | - Peter Moschovis
- Division of Global Health, Department of Pediatrics, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Mukuka Kangwa
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Carol Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Maytal Firnberg
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Nicolaus Glomb
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Andrew Argent
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Stephen J. Reid
- Department of Family, Community and Emergency Care, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Adnan Bhutta
- Division of Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana
| | - Matthew O. Wiens
- Institute for Global Health, British Columbia Children’s & Women’s Hospital, Vancouver, Canada
- Walimu, Kampala, Uganda
- Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda
- Department of Anesthesiology, Pharmacology & Therapeutics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
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Nguyen TG, Kieu HD, Truong DTT, Ngo KX, Ikeda S, Le NT. Exclusive waterpipe smoking and the risk of nasopharynx cancer in Vietnamese men, a prospective cohort study. Sci Rep 2023; 13:13237. [PMID: 37580413 PMCID: PMC10425396 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-40253-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/07/2023] [Indexed: 08/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Tobacco smoking is carcinogenic to humans. Besides cigarettes, the most common form of tobacco smoking, there was sparse evidence of waterpipe's carcinogenicity-induced nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC). This study investigated the association between waterpipe smoking and NPC mortality. Our study followed up with 20,144 eligible man participants from nine northern Vietnam communes between 2007 and 2019. Face-to-face interviews were conducted to gather data on exclusive waterpipe and cigarette smoking and dietary intake using structured semi-quantitative food frequency and lifestyle questionnaires. Nasopharyngeal cancer was determined by accessing the medical records at the state health facilities. We estimated the Cox proportional hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals, HR (95% CI). The proportion of never smokers, exclusive waterpipe, exclusive cigarette, and dual waterpipe and cigarette smokers was 55.8%, 14.5%, 16.6%, and 13.1%, respectively. Exclusively waterpipe smokers increased the risk of NPC death compared to exclusively cigarette smokers, HR (95% CI): 4.51 (1.25, 16.31), p = 0.022. A dose-dependent positive relationship between NPC and exclusive waterpipe smoking was significantly seen for higher intensity HR (95% CI): 1.35 (1.07, 1.71), earlier age of smoking initiation HR (95% CI): 1.26 (1.06, 1.50), longer duration HR (95% CI): 1.31 (1.04, 1.66), and the cumulative number of a smoke lifetime HR (95% CI): 1.37 (1.08, 1.74). We observed a significant positive association between exclusive waterpipe smoking and NPC in men. The findings suggested that waterpipe smoking is likely more harmful than cigarettes in developing this cancer. A firm tobacco control against waterpipe smoking is highly recommended.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thinh Gia Nguyen
- School of Medicine, International University of Health and Welfare, Narita, Japan
| | - Hung Dinh Kieu
- Department of Surgery, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Dung Thuy Thi Truong
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Graduate School of Public Health, International University of Health and Welfare, Narita, Japan
| | - Khoa Xuan Ngo
- Department of Anatomy, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Shunya Ikeda
- Graduate School of Public Health, International University of Health and Welfare, Narita, Japan
| | - Ngoan Tran Le
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam.
- Department of Occupational Health, Institute for Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam.
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van Doorn HR, Miliya T, Douangnouvong A, Ta Thi Dieu N, Soputhy C, Lem M, Chommanam D, Keoluangkhot V, Soumphonphakdy B, Rassavong K, Thanadabouth K, Sayarath M, Chansamouth V, Vu MD, Dong PK, Dang VD, Tran VB, Do TKY, Ninh TN, Nguyen HL, Kim NH, Prak S, Vongsouvath M, Van DT, Nguyen TKT, Nguyen HK, Hamers RL, Ling C, Roberts T, Waithira N, Wannapinij P, Vu TVD, Celhay O, Ngoun C, Vongphachanh S, Pham NT, Ashley EA, Turner P. A Clinically Oriented antimicrobial Resistance surveillance Network (ACORN): pilot implementation in three countries in Southeast Asia, 2019-2020. Wellcome Open Res 2022; 7:309. [PMID: 37854668 PMCID: PMC10579863 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.18317.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 10/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Case-based surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) provides more actionable data than isolate- or sample-based surveillance. We developed A Clinically Oriented antimicrobial Resistance surveillance Network (ACORN) as a lightweight but comprehensive platform, in which we combine clinical data collection with diagnostic stewardship, microbiological data collection and visualisation of the linked clinical-microbiology dataset. Data are compatible with WHO GLASS surveillance and can be stratified by syndrome and other metadata. Summary metrics can be visualised and fed back directly for clinical decision-making and to inform local treatment guidelines and national policy. Methods: An ACORN pilot was implemented in three hospitals in Southeast Asia (1 paediatric, 2 general) to collect clinical and microbiological data from patients with community- or hospital-acquired pneumonia, sepsis, or meningitis. The implementation package included tools to capture site and laboratory capacity information, guidelines on diagnostic stewardship, and a web-based data visualisation and analysis platform. Results: Between December 2019 and October 2020, 2294 patients were enrolled with 2464 discrete infection episodes (1786 community-acquired, 518 healthcare-associated and 160 hospital-acquired). Overall, 28-day mortality was 8.7%. Third generation cephalosporin resistance was identified in 54.2% (39/72) of E. coli and 38.7% (12/31) of K. pneumoniae isolates . Almost a quarter of S. aureus isolates were methicillin resistant (23.0%, 14/61). 290/2464 episodes could be linked to a pathogen, highlighting the level of enrolment required to achieve an acceptable volume of isolate data. However, the combination with clinical metadata allowed for more nuanced interpretation and immediate feedback of results. Conclusions: ACORN was technically feasible to implement and acceptable at site level. With minor changes from lessons learned during the pilot ACORN is now being scaled up and implemented in 15 hospitals in 9 low- and middle-income countries to generate sufficient case-based data to determine incidence, outcomes, and susceptibility of target pathogens among patients with infectious syndromes.
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Affiliation(s)
- H. Rogier van Doorn
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Univeristy of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LG, UK
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Thyl Miliya
- University of Oxford, Siem Reap, 171202, Cambodia
| | | | | | | | - Meymey Lem
- University of Oxford, Siem Reap, 171202, Cambodia
| | - Danoy Chommanam
- Laos Oxford Mahosot Wellcome Research Unit, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Vilada Chansamouth
- Laos Oxford Mahosot Wellcome Research Unit, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
- Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
| | - Minh Dien Vu
- National Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | | | - Van Bac Tran
- National Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Thi Ngoc Ninh
- National Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Ngoc Hao Kim
- National Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Sothea Prak
- University of Oxford, Siem Reap, 171202, Cambodia
| | - Manivanh Vongsouvath
- Laos Oxford Mahosot Wellcome Research Unit, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
- Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
| | | | | | | | - Raph L. Hamers
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Univeristy of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LG, UK
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Clare Ling
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Univeristy of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LG, UK
- Shoklo Malaria Research Unit, Mae Sot, 63110, Thailand
| | - Tamalee Roberts
- Laos Oxford Mahosot Wellcome Research Unit, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
| | - Naomi Waithira
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Univeristy of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LG, UK
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand
| | - Prapass Wannapinij
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand
| | | | - Olivier Celhay
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand
| | | | | | | | - Elizabeth A. Ashley
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Univeristy of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LG, UK
- Laos Oxford Mahosot Wellcome Research Unit, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
| | - Paul Turner
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Univeristy of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LG, UK
- University of Oxford, Siem Reap, 171202, Cambodia
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5
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Mahesh BPK, Hart JD, Acharya A, Chowdhury HR, Joshi R, Adair T, Hazard RH. Validation studies of verbal autopsy methods: a systematic review. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:2215. [PMID: 36447199 PMCID: PMC9706899 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-14628-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2021] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Verbal autopsy (VA) has emerged as an increasingly popular technique to assign cause of death in parts of the world where the majority of deaths occur without proper medical certification. The purpose of this study was to examine the key characteristics of studies that have attempted to validate VA cause of death against an established cause of death. METHODS A systematic review was conducted by searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane-library, and Scopus electronic databases. Included studies contained 1) a VA component, 2) a validation component, and 3) original analysis or re-analysis. Characteristics of VA studies were extracted. A total of 527 studies were assessed, and 481 studies screened to give 66 studies selected for data extraction. RESULTS Sixty-six studies were included from multiple countries. Ten studies used an existing database. Sixteen studies used the World Health Organization VA questionnaire and 5 studies used the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium VA questionnaire. Physician certification was used in 36 studies and computer coded methods were used in 14 studies. Thirty-seven studies used high level comparator data with detailed laboratory investigations. CONCLUSION Most studies found VA to be an effective cause of death assignment method and compared VA cause of death to a high-quality established cause of death. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies in the methodologies of the validation studies, and many used poor quality comparison cause of death data. Future VA validation studies should adhere to consistent methodological criteria so that policymakers can easily interpret the findings to select the most appropriate VA method. PROSPERO REGISTRATION CRD42020186886.
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Affiliation(s)
- Buddhika P. K. Mahesh
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - John D. Hart
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ajay Acharya
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Hafizur Rahman Chowdhury
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rohina Joshi
- grid.464831.c0000 0004 8496 8261The George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India ,grid.1005.40000 0004 4902 0432School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Tim Adair
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Riley H. Hazard
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
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A prospective cohort study on the association between waterpipe tobacco smoking and gastric cancer mortality in Northern Vietnam. BMC Cancer 2022; 22:803. [PMID: 35864477 PMCID: PMC9306202 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-022-09894-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2022] [Accepted: 07/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Tobacco consumption, as a worldwide problem, is a risk factor for several types of cancer. In Vietnam, tobacco consumption in the form of waterpipe tobacco smoking is common. This prospective cohort study aimed to study the association between waterpipe tobacco smoking and gastric cancer mortality in Northern Vietnam. A total of 25,619 eligible participants were followed up between 2008 and 2019. Waterpipe tobacco and cigarette smoking data were collected; semi-quantitative food frequency and lifestyle questionnaires were also utilized. Gastric cancer mortality was determined via medical records available at the state health facilities. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). During 314,992.8 person-years of follow-up, 55 men and 25 women deaths due to gastric cancer were identified. With never-smokers as the reference, the risk of gastric cancer mortality was significantly increased in participants who were ever-smoking (HR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.35–4.36). The positive risk was also observed in men but was not significantly increased in women. By types of tobacco use, exclusive waterpipe smokers showed a significantly increased risk of gastric cancer mortality (HR = 3.22, 95% CI = 1.67–6.21) but that was not significantly increased in exclusive cigarette smokers (HR = 1.90, 95% CI = 0.88–4.07). There was a significant positive association between tobacco smoking and gastric cancer death for indicators of longer smoking duration, higher frequency per day, and cumulative frequency of both waterpipe and cigarette smoking. Waterpipe tobacco smoking would significantly increase the risk of gastric cancer mortality in the Vietnamese population. Further studies are required to understand the waterpipe tobacco smoking-driven gastric cancer burden and promote necessary interventions.
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Qi J, Adair T, Chowdhury HR, Li H, McLaughlin D, Liu Y, Liu J, Zeng X, You J, Firth S, Sorchik R, Yin P, Wang L, Zhou M, Lopez AD. Estimating causes of out-of-hospital deaths in China: application of SmartVA methods. Popul Health Metr 2021; 19:25. [PMID: 33947434 PMCID: PMC8097770 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-021-00256-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 04/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Most deaths in China occur at home, making it difficult to collect reliable cause of death (CoD) information. Verbal autopsy (VA) was applied using the SmartVA tool to a sample of home deaths in China to explore its feasibility as a means of improving the quality of CoD data. Methods The study was carried out in 22 districts in 9 provinces, located in north-east, central, and western areas of China during 2017 and 2018. Trained interviewers selected suitable respondents in each household to collect information using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) shortened and validated electronic VA questionnaire on tablets. The CoD was diagnosed from the interview data using the SmartVA-Analyze 2.0 software (Tariff 2.0). Results Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) dominated the leading causes of death in all age groups and for both sexes. After redistribution of undetermined causes, stroke (24%), ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (21%), chronic respiratory diseases (11%), and lung cancer (6%) were the leading causes of death. The cause fractions for level-one cause categories and ranking of specific causes were similar between SmartVA and results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Conclusion Evidence from this large pilot study suggests that SmartVA is a feasible and plausible tool and could be a valuable tool to improve the quality and standardization of CoD information across China. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00256-1.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinlei Qi
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Tim Adair
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, 207 Bouverie Street, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Hafizur R Chowdhury
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, 207 Bouverie Street, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Hang Li
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, 207 Bouverie Street, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Deirdre McLaughlin
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, 207 Bouverie Street, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Yunning Liu
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Jiangmei Liu
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Xinying Zeng
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Jinling You
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Sonja Firth
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, 207 Bouverie Street, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Renee Sorchik
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, 207 Bouverie Street, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, China.
| | - Lijun Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Alan D Lopez
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
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Blanco A, Perez A, Casillas A, Cobos D. Extracting Cause of Death From Verbal Autopsy With Deep Learning Interpretable Methods. IEEE J Biomed Health Inform 2021; 25:1315-1325. [PMID: 32749982 DOI: 10.1109/jbhi.2020.3005769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
The international standard to ascertain the cause of death is medical certification. However, in many low and middle-income countries, the majority of deaths occur outside of health facilities. In these cases, Verbal Autopsy (VA), the narrative provided by a family member or friend together with a questionnaire is designed by the World Health Organization as the main information source. Until now technology allowed us to automatically analyze the responses of the VA questionnaire with the narrative captured by the interviewer excluded. Our work addresses this gap by developing a set of models for automatic Cause of Death (CoD) ascertainment in VAs with a focus on the textual information. Empirical results show that the open response conveys valuable information towards the ascertainment of the Cause of Death, and the combination of the closed-ended questions and the open response lead to the best results. Model interpretation capabilities position the Deep Learning models as the most encouraging choice.
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Zhang W, Usman Y, Iriawan RW, Lusiana M, Sha S, Kelly M, Rao C. Evaluating the quality of evidence for diagnosing ischemic heart disease from verbal autopsy in Indonesia. World J Cardiol 2019; 11:244-255. [PMID: 31754412 PMCID: PMC6859301 DOI: 10.4330/wjc.v11.i10.244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2019] [Revised: 05/03/2019] [Accepted: 09/16/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mortality and cause of death data are fundamental to health policy development. Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems are the ideal data source, but the system is still under development in Indonesia. A national Sample Registration System (SRS) has provided nationally representative mortality data from 128 sub-districts since 2014. Verbal autopsy (VA) is used in the SRS to obtain causes of death. The quality of VA data must be evaluated as part of the SRS data quality assessment.
AIM To assess the strength of evidence used in the assignment of Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD) as causes of death from VA.
METHODS The sample frame for this study is the 4,070 deaths that had IHD assigned as the underlying cause in the SRS 2016 database. From these, 400 cases were randomly selected. A data extraction form and data entry template were designed to collect relevant data about IHD from VA questionnaires. A standardised categorisation was designed to assess the strength of evidence used to infer IHD as a cause of death. A pilot test of 50 cases was carried out. IBM SPSS software was used in this study.
RESULTS Strong evidence of IHD as a cause of death was assigned based on surgery for coronary heart disease, chest pain and two out of: sudden death, history of heart disease, medical diagnosis of heart disease, or terminal shortness of breath. More than half (53%) of the questionnaires contained strong evidence. For deaths outside health facilities, VA questionnaires for male deaths contained acceptable evidence in significantly higher proportions as compared to those for female deaths. (P < 0.001). Nearly half of all IHD deaths were concentrated in the 50-69 year age group (48.40%), and a further 36.10% were aged 70 years or more. Nearly two-thirds of the deceased were male (58.40%). Smoking behaviour was found in 44.11% of IHD deaths, but this figure was 73.82% among males.
CONCLUSION More than half of the VA questionnaires from the study sample were found to contain strong evidence to infer IHD as the cause of death. Results from medical records such as electrocardiograms, coronary angiographies, and load tests could have improved the strength of evidence and contributed to IHD cause of death diagnosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenrong Zhang
- Department of Global Heath, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2602, Australia
| | - Yuslely Usman
- National Agency for Health Research and Development, Ministry of Health, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia
| | - Retno Widyastuti Iriawan
- National Agency for Health Research and Development, Ministry of Health, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia
| | - Merry Lusiana
- National Agency for Health Research and Development, Ministry of Health, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia
| | - Sha Sha
- Department of Global Heath, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2602, Australia
| | - Matthew Kelly
- Department of Global Heath, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2602, Australia
| | - Chalapati Rao
- Department of Global Heath, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2602, Australia
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Uneke CJ, Uro-Chukwu HC, Chukwu OE. Validation of verbal autopsy methods for assessment of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and the policy implication: a rapid review. Pan Afr Med J 2019; 33:318. [PMID: 31692720 PMCID: PMC6815483 DOI: 10.11604/pamj.2019.33.318.16405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2018] [Accepted: 08/12/2019] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Reliable data on the cause of child death is the cornerstone for evidence-informed health policy making towards improving child health outcomes. Unfortunately, accurate data on cause of death is essentially lacking in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa due to the widespread absence of functional Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems. To address this problem, verbal autopsy (VA) has gained prominence as a strategy for obtaining Cause of Death (COD) information in populations where CRVS are absent. This study reviewed publications that investigated the validation of VA methods for assessment of COD. A MEDLINE PubMed search was undertaken in June 2018 for studies published in English that investigated the validation of VA methods in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990-2018. Of the 17 studies identified, 9 fulfilled the study inclusion criteria from which additional five relevant studies were found by reviewing their references. The result showed that Physician-Certified Verbal Autopsy (PCVA) was the most widely used VA method. Validation studies comparing PCVA to hospital records, expert algorithm and InterVA demonstrated mixed and highly varied outcomes. The accuracy and reliability of the VA methods depended on level of healthcare the respondents have access to and the knowledge of the physicians on the local disease aetiology and epidemiology. As the countries in sub-Saharan Africa continue to battle with dysfunctional CRVS system, VA will remain the only viable option for the supply of child mortality data necessary for policy making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chigozie Jesse Uneke
- African Institute for Health Policy and Health Systems, Ebonyi State University, PMB 053 Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | | | - Onyedikachi Echefu Chukwu
- African Institute for Health Policy and Health Systems, Ebonyi State University, PMB 053 Abakaliki, Nigeria
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