Serum D-dimer levels at admission for prediction of outcomes in acute pancreatitis

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival in elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study from a tertiary center

PURPOSE

There is a lack of adequate models specifically designed for elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) to predict the risk of death. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of SAP in elderly patients.

METHODS

Elderly patients diagnosed with SAP between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2022 were included in the study. Risk factors were identified through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. Subsequently, a novel nomogram model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using metrics such as the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 326 patients were included in the analysis, with 260 in the survival group and 66 in the deceased group. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that age, respiratory rate, arterial pH, total bilirubin, and calcium were independent prognostic factors for the survival of SAP patients. The nomogram demonstrated a performance comparable to sequential organ failure assessment (P = 0.065). Additionally, the calibration curve showed satisfactory predictive accuracy, and the DCA highlighted the clinical application value of the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

We have identified key demographic and laboratory parameters that are associated with the survival of elderly patients with SAP. These parameters have been utilized to create a precise and user-friendly nomogram, which could be an effective and valuable clinical tool for clinicians.

D-dimer - a multifaceted molecule

D-dimer, a universally unique marker for fibrin degradation, is generated through the enzymatic interplay of thrombin, factor XIIIa, and plasmin. The emergence of D-dimer-containing fibrin molecules occurs in both intravascular and extravascular spaces during pivotal physiological processes like haemostasis, thrombosis, and tissue repair. Given the inherently physiological nature of fibrin formation and fibrinolysis, basal levels of D-dimer fragments are present in plasma. Beyond its role as a marker of routine physiological processes, aberrations in D-dimer levels are indicative of a spectrum of conditions, both non-pathological and pathological. The clinical utility of D-dimer has been firmly established, particularly in scenarios like venous thromboembolism (VTE), pulmonary embolism (PE), deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). Additionally, recent applications have extended to assess the prognosis of COVID-19. While D-dimer is commonly associated with thrombotic conditions, its elevation is not confined to these conditions alone. Elevated D-dimer levels are observed across various diseases, where its significance extends beyond diagnostic indicators to prognostic implications.

Construction and alidation of a severity prediction model for acute pancreatitis based on CT severity index: A retrospective case-control study

To construct and internally and externally validate a nomogram model for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on the CT severity index (CTSI).A retrospective analysis of clinical data from 200 AP patients diagnosed at the Hefei Third Clinical College of Anhui Medical University from June 2019 to June 2022 was conducted. Patients were classified into non-severe acute pancreatitis (NSAP, n = 135) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP, n = 65) based on final clinical diagnosis. Differences in CTSI, general clinical features, and laboratory indicators between the two groups were compared. The LASSO regression model was used to select variables that might affect the severity of AP, and these variables were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram model was constructed using R software, and its AUC value was calculated. The accuracy and practicality of the model were evaluated using calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA), with internal validation performed using the bootstrap method. Finally, 60 AP patients treated in the same hospital from July 2022 to December 2023 were selected for external validation.LASSO regression identified CTSI, BUN, D-D, NLR, and Ascites as five predictive factors. Unconditional binary logistic regression analysis showed that CTSI (OR = 2.141, 95%CI:1.369-3.504), BUN (OR = 1.378, 95%CI:1.026-1.959), NLR (OR = 1.370, 95%CI:1.016-1.906), D-D (OR = 1.500, 95%CI:1.112-2.110), and Ascites (OR = 5.517, 95%CI:1.217-2.993) were independent factors influencing SAP. The established prediction model had a C-index of 0.962, indicating high accuracy. Calibration curves demonstrated good consistency between predicted survival rates and actual survival rates. The C-indexes for internal and external validation were 0.935 and 0.901, respectively, with calibration curves close to the ideal line.The model based on CTSI and clinical indicators can effectively predict the severity of AP, providing a scientific basis for clinical decision-making by physicians.

D-dimer as a Marker of Severity and Prognosis in Acute Pancreatitis

Background and Objectives

Acute pancreatitis (AP) scores need a battery of tests that are not helpful at an early stage. Can a single test predict Complicated Acute Pancreatitis (CAP) which includes moderate and severe AP, local complications, and need for intensive care unit (ICU).

Methodology

30 patients of AP. D-dimer, C-reactive protein levels done within 3 days of AP onset. APACHE II, Ranson's score, CT severity index were done. Inhospital disease course for development of organ failure and need for ICU care was followed daily.

Results

D-dimer in CAP was 2732 ng/L (MAP 567 ng/L), in abnormal computed tomography (CT) was 1916 ng/L (normal CT 363 ng/L), and in organ failure was 4776 ng/L (776.5 ng/L absent organ failure). D-dimer increases as the severity of organ failure increases (P = 0.04). D-dimer in ICU patients was significantly elevated (P = 0.021). D-dimer correlates with APACHE II score well, with an increase in predictive mortality rate (P = 0.01). On receiver operator characteristics, D-dimer >933.5 ng/L predicts CAP, >827.5 ng/L predicts positive CT findings (local complications), and >1060.5 ng/L predicts the development of organ failure.

Conclusion

Coagulopathy and microthrombi play a significant role in early pathogenesis. D-dimer test acts at the level of this core pathogenesis, even before the complications set in. D-dimer within 72 h of AP correlates well with the CT findings after 72 h. This is the first study that correlates D-dimer levels with CT scores, ICU requirement. D-dimer can guide primary care physicians in selecting AP patients for referral to a higher center in a resource-limited setting.

Predictive role of lactate in dogs with acute pancreatitis advanced to systemic inflammatory response syndrome

Acute pancreatitis (AP) can develop into life-threatening conditions such as systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Thirty-nine of 54 client-owned dogs admitted to the Referral Animal Medical Center and diagnosed with AP within 24 hr of onset were retrospectively reviewed to assess early predictors of progression from AP to SIRS. The patients were divided into SIRS (SIRS occurring after AP) and non-SIRS (AP occurring but no SIRS) groups. The population and mean values of laboratory variables within 24 hr of admission were assessed and compared between both groups. There were significantly more dogs with abnormal lactate levels in the SIRS group (80.00%) than non-SIRS group (11.10%). Other parameters did not differ significantly. Mean lactate level values were significantly higher at 3.64 ± 1.75 mmol in the SIRS group compared to 1.68 ± 0.52 mmol in the non-SIRS group. The increased energy required by activated immune cells may lead to metabolic changes characterized by anaerobic glycolysis and increased lactate production. This study's results suggest blood lactate monitoring in the early stages of progression from AP to SIRS in small animal clinical practice. Measuring lactate levels at the early stages of pancreatitis could lead to rapid therapeutic intervention for SIRS and ultimately reduce mortality.

Diagnostic performances of D-dimer, prothrombin time, and red blood cell distribution width for coronary artery lesion in children with acute stage Kawasaki disease

Aim

To evaluate the performances of D-dimer, prothrombin time (PT), and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) for the diagnosis of coronary artery lesion (CAL) in acute stage Kawasaki disease (KD).

Methods

Between January 2018 and January 2021, a total of 102 children with acute stage KD were included in this retrospective study. Among them, 36 KD children with CAL were divided into the CAL group, and 66 KD children without CAL were divided into the NCAL group. Independent predictors of CAL in acute stage KD were identified by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Spearman correlations were used to evaluate the association between CAL in acute stage KD and different indicators. The diagnostic performance of different indicators for CAL in acute stage KD was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

Compared with the NCAL group, children in the CAL group had significantly higher white blood cell count, lymphocyte count, platelet count, D-dimer, and RDW levels, but lower PT levels (all p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed that D-dimer (OR = 1.0, 95% CI: 1.004-1.012, p < 0.001), PT (OR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.8, p = 0.01), and RDW (OR = 7.0, 95% CI: 2.6-19.2, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of CAL in children with acute stage KD. CAL showed a positive correlation with D-dimer (r = 0.4, p < 0.001) and RDW (r = 0.5, p < 0.001), and had a negative association with PT (r = -0.2, p < 0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the combination of the three indicators had the highest diagnostic performance for CAL in acute stage KD with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.922 (sensitivity, 86.1%; specificity, 89.4%), compared with D-dimer (AUC = 0.736), PT (AUC = 0.640), and RDW (AUC = 0.819) alone.

Conclusion

A combination of D-dimer, PT, and RDW may help predict CAL in children with acute stage KD.

Prediction of acute lung injury in severe acute pancreatitis by routine clinical data

AIM

Acute lung injury (ALI) is a common complication of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) with a high mortality. Early prediction of patients at risk in initial stage can improve the long-term survival.

METHODS

A total of 91 patients with SAP out of 1647 acute pancreatitis patients from January 2015 to December 2020 were considered. A predictive model for SAP-associated ALI was constructed based on the valuable risk factors identified from routine clinical characteristics and plasma biomarkers. The value of the model was evaluated and compared with Lung Injury Prediction Score (LIPS). A nomogram was built to visualize the model.

RESULTS

Diabetes, oxygen supplementation, neutrophil count and D-dimer were found to be associated with ALI in SAP. The predictive model based on these factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC: 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-0.95], which was superior to LIPS (AUC: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.60-0.83), also with the higher sensitivity (65%) and specificity (96%) than LIPS (62%, 74%, respectively). Decision curve analysis of the model showed a higher net benefit than LIPS. Visualization by a nomogram facilitated the application of the model.

CONCLUSION

Diabetes, oxygen supplementation, neutrophil count and D-dimer were risk factors for SAP-associated ALI. The combination of these routine clinical data and the model visualization by a nomogram provided a simple and effective way in predicting ALI in the early phase of SAP.

Preexisting diabetes, serum calcium and D-dimer levels as predictable risk factors for pancreatic necrosis of patients with acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Some individuals with acute pancreatitis (AP) suffer from pancreatic necrosis. Diabetes affects the severity of AP, but whether diabetes influences pancreatic necrosis is unclear. This study aims to investigate the clinical characteristics of AP patients with and without diabetes as well as analyze the risk factors of pancreatic necrosis.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 625 AP patients participated in the study. Clinical and laboratory data were retrieved. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for pancreatic necrosis. ROC curves assess the accuracy of indicators for predicting pancreatic necrosis in AP.

RESULTS

AP patients with diabetes had high BMI, CTSI scores, pancreatitis severity, WBC, neutrophil, CRP, triacylglycerols and glucose levels. Diabetes, serum calcium and D-dimer were independent risk factors for pancreatic necrosis. Pancreatic necrosis in diabetes patients is also associated with sex and age. D-dimer is a better predictor of pancreatic necrosis in AP patients than serum calcium.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetic patients are more likely to suffer severe AP. Serum calcium and D-dimer are independent predictors for pancreatic necrosis. Furthermore, low serum calcium, high D-dimer levels, younger age and female sex are independent risk factors for pancreatic necrosis in AP patients with diabetes.

Triglyceride to HDL-C ratio is associated with plasma D-dimer levels in different types of pancreatitis

This study aims to evaluate levels of D-dimer and serum lipid in different types of pancreatitis, and the relationship between D-dimer and dyslipidemia, especially triglyceride to HDL-C ratio (TG/HDL-C) in different types of pancreatitis. We analyzed the D-dimer and dyslipidemia levels in acute pancreatitis (AP), recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP). A single-centered retrospective study was conducted on 1013 patients diagnosed with AP, RAP or CP. Only patients hospitalized within 24 h of onset were included, and 204 patients were enrolled in pancreatitis groups. 68 normal persons without pancreatitis, malignant diseases, pregnancy, or organ failure, who had health check-ups, were enrolled in the control group. Blood samples were taken within 24 h of admission. The relevant information on epidemiology and etiology was collected. D-dimer and serum lipid levels in different types of pancreatitis were analyzed. Furthermore, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to estimate the validity of the predictor and to define optimal cut-off points for prediction. We found that D-dimer and TG/HDL-C ratio could distinguish mild AP (MAP) and non-MAP in AP and RAP patients. The D-dimer level was related to TG/HDL-C ratio and severity of pancreatitis, with the coefficient correlation of 0.379 and 0.427(p < 0.05), respectively. TG/HDL-C was related to D-dimer in different types of pancreatitis. Logistic regression analysis was conducted in the parameters at admission like alcohol abuse, dyslipidemia and coagulation disturbance in distinguishing AP and RAP groups from the control group, and the parameter like diabetes in RAP and CP groups significantly increased compared with that of the control group. The value of D-dimer level and TG/HDL-C ratio in predicting the severity of AP and RAP was confirmed but there was no significant difference between CP group and the control group. The D-dimer level was related to dyslipidemia and TG/HDL-C ratio.

[Association between coagulation function and prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis]

OBJECTIVE

To explore the correlation of coagulation function with the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) and identify the laboratory markers for early prediction and dynamic monitoring of the prognosis of AP.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with AP admitted less than 72 h after onset to our hospital from December 1, 2017 to November 30, 2018. The correlation of coagulation function-related markers at admission and their changes during hospitalization with the prognosis of the patients was analyzed.

RESULTS

We screened the data of a total of 1260 patients with AP against the inclusion and exclusion criteria, and eventually 175 patients were enrolled in this analysis, among whom 52 patients had severe AP (SAP) and 12 patients died. Logistic regression analysis identified vWF: Ag, PT, PC, AT Ⅲ and D-dimer markers at admission as independent risk factors for predicting SAP and death. Dynamic monitoring of the changes in coagulation function-related markers in the disease course had greater predictive value of the patients' prognosis, and the indicators including vWF: Ag_max, PT_max, APTT_max, TT_max, FIB_min, D-dimer_max, PLT_min, PC_min, PLG_min, AT Ⅲ_min, and their variations were all independent risk factors for predicting SAP and death. ROC analysis suggested that dynamic monitoring of the changes in the indicators, especially those of △vWF: Ag, △PT, △APTT, △FIB, △TT, △D-dimer, △PLT, △PC, △AT Ⅲ, △PLG, could effectively predict SAP and death in these patients (with AUC range of 0.63-0.84).

CONCLUSION

Patients with AP have vascular endothelial injuries and coagulation disorders. The markers including vWF: Ag, PT, PC, AT Ⅲ and D-dimer at admission are independent risk factors for predicting SAP and death, and dynamic monitoring of the changes in vWF: Ag、PT、APTT、TT、FIB、D-dimer、PLT、PC、AT Ⅲ and PLG can further increase the predictive value.

The predictive value of procalcitonin combined with C-reactive protein and D dimer in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to investigate the predictive value of a parametric model constructed by using procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP) and D dimer within 48 h after admission in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A total of 238 patients were enrolled, of which 170 patients were moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP+SAP). The concentrations of procalcitonin, CRP and D dimer within 48 h after admission were obtained. The predictive value of the parametric model, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI), bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, modified Marshall score and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score of all patients was calculated and compared.

RESULTS

The area under receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, Youden index and critical value of the parametric model for predicting MSAP+SAP were 0.853 (95% CI, 0.804-0.903), 84.71%, 70.59%, 55.30% and 0.2833, respectively. The sensitivity of the parametric model was higher than that of MCTSI (84.00%), Ranson score (73.53%), BISAP (56.47%), APACHE II score (27.65%), modified Marshall score (17.06%) and SIRS score (78.24%); the specificity of it were higher than that of MCTSI (52.94%) and Ranson score (67.65%), but lower than BISAP (73.53%), APACHE II score (76.47%), modified Marshall score (100%)and SIRS score (100.00%).

CONCLUSION

The parametric model constructed by using procalcitonin 48 h, CRP 48 h and D dimer 48 h can be regarded as an evaluation model for predicting moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

Development and Evaluation of a Nomogram to Predict the Eventual Severity of the First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this research was to establish a nomogram for early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

A total of 1860 AP patients from 2013 to 2020 were included in this study. According to the 2012 revised Atlanta classification, patients were divided into nonsevere AP group and severe AP (SAP) group. The baseline characteristics and first laboratory indicators after admission between the 2 groups were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in training set. R language was used for establishing a predictive nomogram and further verified in validation set.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training set showed red blood cell distribution width, d -dimer, apolipoprotein A1, and albumin were independent factors for SAP. A predictive nomogram was accordingly established based on the 4 indicators. Validation on this predictive nomogram showed high internal validation concordance index of 0.940 (95% confidence interval, 0.922-0.958) and high external validation concordance index of 0.943 (95% confidence interval, 0.920-0.966). The calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis all showed that the nomogram had good predictive ability.

CONCLUSIONS

This nomogram may be an effective clinical tool for predicting the first episode of SAP.

A Novel Risk-Prediction Scoring System for Sepsis among Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Analysis of a Large Clinical Database

BACKGROUND

The prognosis is poor when acute pancreatitis (AP) progresses to sepsis; therefore, it is necessary to accurately predict the probability of sepsis and develop a personalized treatment plan to reduce the disease burden of AP patients.

METHODS

A total of 1295 patients with AP and 43 variables were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) IV database. The included patients were randomly assigned to the training set and to the validation set at a ratio of 7 : 3. The chi-square test or Fisher's exact test was used to test the distribution of categorical variables, and Student's t-test was used for continuous variables. Multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a prognostic model for predicting the occurrence of sepsis in AP patients. The indicators to verify the overall performance of the model included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and a decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The multifactor analysis results showed that temperature, phosphate, calcium, lactate, the mean blood pressure (MBP), urinary output, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), sodium, platelet count, and albumin were independent risk factors. All of the indicators proved that the prediction performance and clinical profitability of the newly established nomogram were better than those of other common indicators (including SIRS, BISAP, SOFA, and qSOFA).

CONCLUSIONS

The new risk-prediction system that was established in this research can accurately predict the probability of sepsis in patients with acute pancreatitis, and this helps clinicians formulate personalized treatment plans for patients. The new model can reduce the disease burden of patients and can contribute to the reasonable allocation of medical resources, which is significant for tertiary prevention.

Clinical analysis of the therapeutic effect of plasma exchange on hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The therapeutic effect of plasma exchange (PE) on hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTGAP) is unclear. Therefore, we aimed to explore this therapeutic effect.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This study included 204 patients with HTGAP who underwent treatment at two provincial tertiary grade A hospitals in Fujian Province from October 2012 to May 2021. Patients were divided into a conventional group and a PE group. The Student's t-test and chi-square test were used for data analysis.

RESULTS

Among 204 patients, 56 and 148 were included in the PE and conventional groups, respectively. After propensity score matching (PSM), the PE and conventional groups each had 42 patients. There was no significant difference in age; sex; pregnancy; comorbidities; laboratory findings; incidences of complications, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS); organ support treatment; surgical rate; mortality; and hospital stay between the groups (p > 0.05). The total expenses were significantly higher in the PE group than in the conventional group (p < 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in the times of PE; total volume of PE; incidences of complications, and MODS; organ support treatment; surgical rate; mortality; and hospital stay between the early PE and delayed PE groups (p > 0.05). All patients in the PE group and conventional group with acute renal failure had significantly higher D-dimer levels than those without acute renal failure (p < 0.05).

DISCUSSION

Compared with conventional treatment, PE does not have a better therapeutic effect on HTGAP. The D-dimer level can predict whether patients with HTGAP will have acute renal failure.

Clinical Characteristics and Early Prognostic Factors of Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Objectives: To analyze the clinical characteristics of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) patients retrospectively and explore the effective factors in death from severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods: The required data were collected from 234 SAP patients admitted to our department from January 2013 to December 2020 and then analyzed retrospectively. According to the prognosis, all patients were admitted within 72 hours of onset and were assigned to the death and survival groups. The participants’ clinical and demographic information, laboratory indices when patients were brought to the intensive care unit (ICU), and organ failure were analyzed using univariate and logistic multivariate regression. The logistic regression (LR) model was developed and evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: In this study, the total mortality rate was 11.96% (95% CI, 8.1 - 16.8%). The univariate analysis revealed a significant relationship between SAP-related death with age, ICU admission within 24 hours of onset, APACHE II score, serum amylase, serum albumin, PaO2, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), renal insufficiency, and other diseases (P < 0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis further demonstrated that ICU admission within 24 hours of onset, serum albumin, ARDS, and renal insufficiency were independent early prognostic factors of SAP (P < 0.05). LR model: Y = -0.108 - 1.852 × ICU admission within 24 hours of onset -0.102 × serum albumin + 1.790 × ARDS + 1.150 × renal insufficiency. The area under the curve (AUC) and 95% CI of the LR model were 0.864 (0.811 - 0.917) with the optimal threshold of 2.246. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.709 and 0.929, respectively. Conclusions: The SAP patients or acute pancreatitis (AP) patients at risk of developing SAP should be transferred to ICU at the earliest convenience. Moreover, hypoalbuminemia, ARDS, and renal insufficiency indicate poor prognosis.

Can we use endocan level to determine severity of pancreatitis?

Background and study aims

Endothelial cell specific molecule-1 (ESM-1), also known as endocan, is a soluble proteoglycan secreted by human vascular endothelial cells. In some studies, it has been found that endocan have important effects on cell adhesion, inflammation and angiogenesis. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the endocan level in patients with pancreatitis and the availability of endocan level in determining the severity of the disease.

Patients and methods

A total of 42 patients with pancreatitis and 33 healthy individuals were included in the study. The serum endocan levels in patients were evaluated 1st and 3 th days after the symptom's onset. Current scoring systems and the relationship between the severity of the disease and endocan levels were evaluated.

Results

The endocan levels of the patients on day 1 are significantly correlated only with the APACHE II score (p=0.039 r=0.319), while the endocan values on day 3 are significantly correlated with the BISAP (bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis) (p=0.013 r=0.380), APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation)(p<0.001; r=0.53) and Ranson (p=0.037 r=0.32) scores. The cutoff level of endocan (day 3) was calculated 92.2 pg/ml (83% sensitivity and 50% specificity; p=0.039 area under the curve 0.706) for severe pancreatitis when considering the patients with a score of 8 or higher in the APACHE II scoring system.

Conclusion

Serum endocan level can be used as a marker of prognosis in patients with pancreatitis. However, studies involving large populations are needed on this matter.

Angiotensin-II and acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is one of the most common acute abdominal diseases in the digestive system. The total mortality of AP is about 5%-10%; however, the mortality of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is about 30%-40%. In recent years, the overall mortality rate of AP has not changed much, but the incidence rate of AP is increasing year by year. AP has become the second major cause of hospitalization in department of gastroenterology, and also is one of the most expensive diseases. According to the revised Atlanta classification criteria in 2012, AP can be divided into mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), moderate severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP), and SAP. About 60% of AP cases are MAP, which is often self-limited, has no complications, and is associated with a low mortality rate; however, about 30% of AP patients had MSAP, about 10% of which could get worse to turn to SAP. Persistent organ failure (POF) is the main cause of the progression of SAP, and also is the main cause of death in the early stage of AP. Pancreatic necrosis with secondary infection is the main cause of death in the late stage of AP. The progression and prognosis of AP are closely related to the early treatment and intervention, but the complicated pathogenesis of AP affects the efficacy of early treatment. Since the pathogenesis of AP has not been fully elucidated, there is a lack of specific treatment. At present, the pathogenesis of AP is generally recognized as "cascade waterfall of leukocyte over-activation-inflammatory factors", "intestinal bacterial translocation and secondary attack", "apoptosis", "pancreatic microcirculation disorder", etc. These theories indicate that the pathogenesis of AP is a complex and multifactorial pathophysiological process. In recent years, the role of angiotensin-Ⅱ (Ang-Ⅱ), an active substance in the renin-angiotensin system, in the occurrence and development of AP has gradually attracted the attention of scholars. Therefore, an in-depth study of the relationship between Ang-Ⅱ and AP may contribute to the clinical understanding and treatment of AP. In this paper, we review the relationship between Ang-Ⅱ and AP.

Assessment of the course of acute pancreatitis in the light of aetiology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The main causes of acute pancreatitis (AP) are biliary disease, alcohol consumption, hypertriglyceridaemia (HTG) and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of these aetiological factors on the severity and outcome of AP. Pubmed and Embase were searched between 01/01/2012 and 31/05/2020. Included articles involved adult alcoholic, biliary, HTG- or post-ERCP AP (PAP) patients. Primary outcome was severity, secondary outcomes were organ failures, intensive care unit admission, recurrence rate, pancreatic necrosis, mortality, length of hospital stay, pseudocyst, fluid collection and systematic inflammatory response syndrome. Data were analysed from 127 eligible studies. The risk for non-mild (moderately severe and severe) condition was the highest in HTG-induced AP (HTG-AP) followed by alcoholic AP (AAP), biliary AP (BAP) and PAP. Recurrence rate was significantly lower among BAP vs. HTG-AP or AAP patients (OR = 2.69 and 2.98, 95% CI 1.55–4.65 and 2.22–4.01, respectively). Mortality rate was significantly greater in HTG-AP vs. AAP or BAP (OR = 1.72 and 1.50, 95% CI 1.04–2.84 and 0.96–2.35, respectively), pancreatic necrosis occurred more frequently in AAP than BAP patients (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.08–2.30). Overall, there is a potential association between aetiology and the development and course of AP. HTG-AP is associated with the highest number of complications. Furthermore, AAP is likely to be more severe than BAP or PAP. Greater emphasis should be placed on determining aetiology on admission.

A 5-Year Retrospective Cohort Study: Epidemiology, Etiology, Severity, and Outcomes of Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology, etiology, severity, and outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP) in the southern Sichuan region of China.

METHODS

All patients with first-attack AP between 2013 and 2018 in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University were retrospectively identified. The etiology tendency was analyzed, and the relationship was defined with sex, aging, severity, length of stay, and mortality.

RESULTS

Three thousand twenty-eight patients were enrolled for analysis. Acute biliary pancreatitis had the highest incidence rate; the second and third most common causes were hypertriglyceridemic (14.4%) and alcoholic (14.2%), followed by idiopathic (13.6%), mixed etiology (12.9%), and miscellaneous (2.31%). Patients with alcoholic AP were more likely to be middle-aged males, whereas patients with acute biliary pancreatitis were more likely to be elderly females (P < 0.05). The overall mortality in the hospital was 1%, and there was no difference in each etiological groups (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Biliary disease was the predominant etiology of AP in southern Sichuan of China, and hypertriglyceridemia ranked second. The proportion of hypertriglyceridemic AP and mixed etiology AP gradually increased, whereas idiopathic AP decreased. There were different etiology proportion of AP according age, sex, and severity.

COVID-19-associated coagulopathy: An exploration of mechanisms

An ongoing global pandemic of viral pneumonia (coronavirus disease [COVID-19]), due to the virus SARS-CoV-2, has infected millions of people and remains a threat to many more. Most critically ill patients have respiratory failure and there is an international effort to understand mechanisms and predictors of disease severity. Coagulopathy, characterized by elevations in D-dimer and fibrin(ogen) degradation products (FDPs), is associated with critical illness and mortality in patients with COVID-19. Furthermore, increasing reports of microvascular and macrovascular thrombi suggest that hemostatic imbalances may contribute to the pathophysiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We review the laboratory and clinical findings of patients with COVID-19-associated coagulopathy, and prior studies of hemostasis in other viral infections and acute respiratory distress syndrome. We hypothesize that an imbalance between coagulation and inflammation may result in a hypercoagulable state. Although thrombosis initiated by the innate immune system is hypothesized to limit SARS-CoV-2 dissemination, aberrant activation of this system can cause endothelial injury resulting in loss of thromboprotective mechanisms, excess thrombin generation, and dysregulation of fibrinolysis and thrombosis. The role various components including neutrophils, neutrophil extracellular traps, activated platelets, microparticles, clotting factors, inflammatory cytokines, and complement play in this process remains an area of active investigation and ongoing clinical trials target these different pathways in COVID-19.

Deceased serum bilirubin and albumin levels in the assessment of severity and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis

Background: Our study investigated the diagnostic and prognostic role of serum antioxidant indexes in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods: This study included 708 AP patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) database and 477 patients from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). X-tile software was applied to determine the best cutoff values for serum antioxidant indexes. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were employed to select variables associated with severe AP (SAP) and in-hospital mortality. Finally, the nomograms were also externally validated in the eICU-CRD. Results: The best cutoff values for serum total bilirubin (TBIL) and albumin were 1.1 mg/dL and 2.1 g/dL in the training set, respectively. Multivariate logistical regression indicated that both TBIL (odds ratio [OR]=0.740, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.616-0.889, P=0.001) and albumin (OR=0.890, 95%CI: 0.819-0.967, P=0.006) were independent risk factors for SAP. Similarly, multivariate Cox analysis revealed that serum TBIL (hazard ratio [HR]=0.768, 95%CI:0.635-0.928, P=0.006) and albumin (HR=0.962, 95%CI:0.927-0.998, P=0.037) were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in AP patients. The diagnostic nomogram containing TBIL, albumin, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and urea nitrogen and prognostic nomogram combining TBIL, albumin, white blood count, SOFA score, and age obtained good discrimination, calibration and clinical utility in both the MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD. Conclusion: Serum TBIL and albumin were independent predictors for SAP and in-hospital mortality in AP patients. The nomograms combining serum TBIL and albumin with other significant features exerted favorable predictive performance for SAP and in-hospital mortality.

Multifactorial Scores and Biomarkers of Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: Applications to Research and Practice

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammation of the pancreas presented with sudden onset and severe abdominal pain with a high morbidity and mortality rate, if accompanied by severe local and systemic complications. Numerous studies have been published about the pathogenesis of AP; however, the precise mechanism behind this pathology remains unclear. Extensive research conducted over the last decades has demonstrated that the first 24 h after symptom onset are critical for the identification of patients who are at risk of developing complications or death. The identification of these subgroups of patients is crucial in order to start an aggressive approach to prevent mortality. In this sense and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment, thereby reducing the financial implications, the proper identification of mild disease is also important and necessary. A large number of multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers are described to predict the severity. Despite recent progress in understanding the pathophysiology of AP, more research is needed to enable a faster and more accurate prediction of severe AP. This review provides an overview of the available multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe AP with a special focus on their advantages and limitations.

Specific Biomarkers of Prostate Cancer-Associated Ischemic Stroke: A Case-Control Study

Background

Ischemic stroke in cancer patients is associated with poor prognosis. However, the specific biomarkers of cancer-associated ischemic stroke (CaIS) have not been well defined.

Material/Methods

A retrospective study was conducted on PCaIS patients. Clinical data and laboratory and imaging findings were collected. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the independent risk factors for PCaIS. A multiple model combining the independent risk factors of PCaIS was developed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under the ROC curve (AUC).

Results

A total of 83 PCaIS patients and 83 prostate cancer (PCa) patients were included. PCaIS patients had higher levels of D-dimer, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and total prostate-specific antigen (T-PSA). In the multivariate analysis, D-dimer [OR=1.001, 95% CI: 1.00,1.00, P=0.002], NLR [OR=1.12, 95% CI: 1.04,1.22, P=0.005], and T-PSA [OR=6.275, 95% CI: 2.57,15.31, P<0.001] were independent risk factors of PCaIS. Additionally, the AUC of the multiple model of PCaIS was 0.815 (95% CI, 0.750–0.869), with sensitivity of 81.71% and specificity of 70.21%.

Conclusions

Elevated levels of D-dimer and T-PSA and increased NLR are independent risk factors of PCaIS. The multiple model of PCaIS can be a specific biomarker and is a reliable predictor of development of PCaIS.