Development and validation of a risk score to assist screening for acute HIV-1 infection among men who have sex with men

Do men who have sex with men recognise syphilis symptoms? A syphilis awareness campaign in Amsterdam, the Netherlands

INTRODUCTION

Syphilis incidence is rising among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). To improve early health-seeking behaviour, we developed an online syphilis symptom score tool for GBMSM to self-identify a higher likelihood of infectious syphilis and promoted its use via an online and offline awareness campaign.

METHODS

From October 2018 through September 2019, a dedicated website on syphilis including the online symptom score tool was promoted. The reach of the campaign was measured by website metrics and the completion of the self-assessment tool. The impact of the campaign was assessed by comparing the monthly number of syphilis serology tests and the percentages of infectious syphilis diagnoses at the Centre for Sexual Health (CSH) in Amsterdam between three periods: 12 months preceding, 12 months during and 6 months after the campaign.

RESULTS

During the campaign, 20 341 visitors viewed the website. A total of 13 499 (66.4%) visitors started the self-assessment algorithm, and 11 626 (86.1%) completed it. Prior to the campaign, the mean number of syphilis tests per month was 1650 compared with 1806 per month during the campaign (p=0.02). In the 6 months after the campaign, the mean number of tests per month was 1798 (compared with the period of the campaign, p=0.94). Prior to the campaign, the percentage of infectious syphilis diagnoses was 2.5% compared with 3.0% during the campaign (p=0.009). The percentage of infectious syphilis diagnoses in the 6 months after the campaign was 2.2% (p<0.0001 compared with the period of the campaign, and p=0.045, compared with the period prior to the campaign).

CONCLUSIONS

Although we did not find definite proof of a (sustained) effect, syphilis symptoms awareness campaigns deserve further evaluation and improvements to help those suspected of syphilis to get tested.

Data mining and machine learning in HIV infection risk research: An overview and recommendations

In the contemporary era, the applications of data mining and machine learning have permeated extensively into medical research, significantly contributing to areas such as HIV studies. By reviewing 38 articles published in the past 15 years, the study presents a roadmap based on seven different aspects, utilizing various machine learning techniques for both novice researchers and experienced researchers seeking to comprehend the current state of the art in this area. While traditional regression modeling techniques have been commonly used, researchers are increasingly adopting more advanced fully supervised machine learning and deep learning techniques, which often outperform the traditional methods in predictive performance. Additionally, the study identifies nine new open research issues and outlines possible future research plans to enhance the outcomes of HIV infection risk research. This review is expected to be an insightful guide for researchers, illuminating current practices and suggesting advancements in the field.

A 95% decline in estimated newly acquired HIV infections, Amsterdam, 2010 to 2022

The infrastructure in cities provides unique opportunities to eliminate HIV. Since 2014, the HIV Transmission Elimination AMsterdam Initiative, a consortium involved in HIV prevention and care, has employed an integrated approach to curb HIV incidence in Amsterdam. This effort contributed to the 95% decline in estimated newly acquired infections and the 79% decline in observed new HIV diagnoses in Amsterdam from 2010 to 2022. In 2022, Amsterdam reached and exceeded the 95-95-95 UNAIDS treatment cascade goals (98-95%-96%).

Performance of HIV Infection Prediction Models in Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Effective ways to identify and predict men who have sex with men (MSM) at substantial risk for HIV is a global priority. HIV risk assessment tools can improve individual risk awareness and subsequent health-seeking actions. We sought to identify and characterize the performance of HIV infection risk prediction models in MSM through systematic review and meta-analysis. PubMed, Embase, and The Cochrane Library were searched. Eighteen HIV infection risk assessment models with a total of 151,422 participants and 3643 HIV cases were identified, eight of which have been externally validated by at least one study (HIRI-MSM, Menza Score, SDET Score, Li Model, DHRS, Amsterdam Score, SexPro model, and UMRSS). The number of predictor variables in each model ranged from three to 12, age, the number of male sexual partners, unprotected receptive anal intercourse, recreational drug usage (amphetamines, poppers), and sexually transmitted infections were critical scoring variables. All eight externally validated models performed well in terms of discrimination, with the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranging from 0.62 (95%CI: 0.51 to 0.73, SDET Score) to 0.83 (95%CI: 0.48 to 0.99, Amsterdam Score). Calibration performance was only reported in 10 studies (35.7%, 10/28). The HIV infection risk prediction models showed moderate-to-good discrimination performance. Validation of prediction models across different geographic and ethnic environments is needed to ensure their real-world application.

Developing a symptoms-based risk score for infectious syphilis among men who have sex with men

Background

Syphilis incidence is rising among men who have sex with men (MSM). An online tool based on a risk score identifying men with higher risk of infectious syphilis could motivate MSM to seek care. We aimed therefore to develop a symptoms-based risk score for infectious syphilis.

Methods

We included data from all consultations by MSM attending the Amsterdam Centre for Sexual Health in 2018–2019. Infectious syphilis (ie, primary, secondary or early latent syphilis) was diagnosed according to the centre’s routine protocol. Associations between symptoms and infectious syphilis were expressed as odds ratios (OR), with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Based on multivariable logistic regression models, we created risk scores, combining various symptoms. We assessed the area under the curve (AUC) and cut-off based on the Youden Index. We estimated which percentage of MSM should be tested based on a positive risk score and which percentage of infectious syphilis cases would then be missed.

Results

We included 21,646 consultations with 11,594 unique persons. The median age was 34 years (IQR 27–45), and 14% were HIV positive (93% on antiretroviral treatment). We diagnosed 538 cases of infectious syphilis. Associations with syphilis symptoms/signs were strong and highly significant, for example, OR for a painless penile ulcer was 35.0 (CI 24.9 to 49.2) and OR for non-itching rash 57.8 (CI 36.8 to 90.9). Yet, none of the individual symptoms or signs had an AUC >0.55. The AUC of risk scores combining various symptoms varied from 0.68 to 0.69. For all risk scores using cut-offs based on Youden Index, syphilis screening would be recommended in 6% of MSM, and 59% of infectious syphilis cases would be missed.

Conclusion

Symptoms-based risk scores for infectious syphilis perform poorly and cannot be recommended to select MSM for syphilis screening. All MSM with relevant sexual exposure should be regularly tested for syphilis.

Sexual Behavior Transition and Acute and Early HIV Infection Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: Evidence from an Open Cohort in China, 2011-2019

The present study examined how sexual behaviors transit over time among men who have sex with men (MSM) and whether these transitions were associated with acute and early HIV (AEH) infection. An open cohort study was conducted using snowball sampling to recruit MSM via physical venues and Internet venues from 2011 to 2019, in China. Cox models were used to estimate the correlates of risk factors and AEH infection. We used Latent Transition Analysis (LTA) to describe behavioral profile and explore latent behavioral "trans-phenotypes," then examined the effect between different "trans-phenotypes" and AEH infection risk and explored the effect of characteristics as possible predictors of sexual behavior transition. Of 6502 MSM, a total of 1974 individuals with negative human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) tests at baseline and at least 2 visit records were included in the final analysis from 2011 to 2019. During an average 1.84 years of follow-up, 64 AEH infections were documented. In the multivariable Cox model, the association between condom use in last anal sex (HR: 0.095, 0.038-0.205), fewer sexual partners (HR: 0.375, 0.205-0.712), low frequency of condom use (HR: 3.592, 1.186-11.272), and AEH acquisition were found. The percentage of MSM with "maintain/develop safety-profile," "consistent risky-profile," and "safety-profile to risky-profile" were 52.48, 40.17, and 7.35%, respectively. Compared with "maintain\develop safety-profile," "consistent or develop risky-profile" had an increasing likelihood of AEH infection. Meanwhile, male sex workers (MSWs) or older MSM were more likely to consist or transit in "risky-profile." Having middle education is a risk factor to transit in "risky-profile" for MSM with "safety-profile" at baseline. In addition, MSM who accept health services in the past year engaged in higher proportion of developing safety-profile. Approximately half of MSM maintain or develop risky behavior with the increasing likelihood of AEH acquisition in China, which suggested that targeted and intensive interventions should be prioritized to maintain safety-profile. Clinical Trial Number: ChiCTR2000039500.

Estimating the potential to prevent locally acquired HIV infections in a UNAIDS Fast-Track City, Amsterdam

Background

More than 300 cities including the city of Amsterdam in the Netherlands have joined the UNAIDS Fast-Track Cities initiative, committing to accelerate their HIV response and end the AIDS epidemic in cities by 2030. To support this commitment, we aimed to estimate the number and proportion of Amsterdam HIV infections that originated within the city, from Amsterdam residents. We also aimed to estimate the proportion of recent HIV infections during the 5-year period 2014-2018 in Amsterdam that remained undiagnosed.

Methods

We located diagnosed HIV infections in Amsterdam using postcode data (PC4) at time of registration in the ATHENA observational HIV cohort, and used HIV sequence data to reconstruct phylogeographically distinct, partially observed Amsterdam transmission chains. Individual-level infection times were estimated from biomarker data, and used to date the phylogenetically observed transmission chains as well as to estimate undiagnosed proportions among recent infections. A Bayesian Negative Binomial branching process model was used to estimate the number, size, and growth of the unobserved Amsterdam transmission chains from the partially observed phylogenetic data.

Results

Between 1 January 2014 and 1 May 2019, there were 846 HIV diagnoses in Amsterdam residents, of whom 516 (61%) were estimated to have been infected in 2014-2018. The rate of new Amsterdam diagnoses since 2014 (104 per 100,000) remained higher than the national rates excluding Amsterdam (24 per 100,000), and in this sense Amsterdam remained a HIV hotspot in the Netherlands. An estimated 14% [12-16%] of infections in Amsterdan MSM in 2014-2018 remained undiagnosed by 1 May 2019, and 41% [35-48%] in Amsterdam heterosexuals, with variation by region of birth. An estimated 67% [60-74%] of Amsterdam MSM infections in 2014-2018 had an Amsterdam resident as source, and 56% [41-70%] in Amsterdam heterosexuals, with heterogeneity by region of birth. Of the locally acquired infections, an estimated 43% [37-49%] were in foreign-born MSM, 41% [35-47%] in Dutch-born MSM, 10% [6-18%] in foreign-born heterosexuals, and 5% [2-9%] in Dutch-born heterosexuals. We estimate the majority of Amsterdam MSM infections in 2014-2018 originated in transmission chains that pre-existed by 2014.

Conclusions

This combined phylogenetic, epidemiologic, and modelling analysis in the UNAIDS Fast-Track City Amsterdam indicates that there remains considerable potential to prevent HIV infections among Amsterdam residents through city-level interventions. The burden of locally acquired infection remains concentrated in MSM, and both Dutch-born and foreign-born MSM would likely benefit most from intensified city-level interventions.

Funding

This study received funding as part of the H-TEAM initiative from Aidsfonds (project number P29701). The H-TEAM initiative is being supported by Aidsfonds (grant number: 2013169, P29701, P60803), Stichting Amsterdam Dinner Foundation, Bristol-Myers Squibb International Corp. (study number: AI424-541), Gilead Sciences Europe Ltd (grant number: PA-HIV-PREP-16-0024), Gilead Sciences (protocol numbers: CO-NL-276-4222, CO-US-276-1712, CO-NL-985-6195), and M.A.C AIDS Fund.

Risk-Based Screening Tools to Optimise HIV Testing Services: a Systematic Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Effective ways to diagnose the remaining people living with HIV who do not know their status are a global priority. We reviewed the use of risk-based tools, a set of criteria to identify individuals who would not otherwise be tested (screen in) or excluded people from testing (screen out).

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies suggest that there may be value in risk-based tools to improve testing efficiency (i.e. identifying those who need to be tested). However, there has not been any systematic reviews to synthesize these studies. We identified 18,238 citations, and 71 were included. The risk-based tools identified were most commonly from high-income (51%) and low HIV (<5%) prevalence countries (73%). The majority were for "screening in" (70%), with the highest performance tools related to identifying MSM with acute HIV. Screening in tools may be helpful in settings where it is not feasible or recommended to offer testing routinely. Caution is needed for screening out tools, where there is a trade-off between reducing costs of testing with missing cases of people living with HIV.

Ethical considerations for HIV remission clinical research involving participants diagnosed during acute HIV infection

HIV remission clinical researchers are increasingly seeking study participants who are diagnosed and treated during acute HIV infection—the brief period between infection and the point when the body creates detectable HIV antibodies. This earliest stage of infection is often marked by flu-like illness and may be an especially tumultuous period of confusion, guilt, anger, and uncertainty. Such experiences may present added ethical challenges for HIV research recruitment, participation, and retention. The purpose of this paper is to identify potential ethical challenges associated with involving acutely diagnosed people living with HIV in remission research and considerations for how to mitigate them. We identify three domains of potential ethical concern for clinicians, researchers, and ethics committee members to consider: 1) Recruitment and informed consent; (2) Transmission risks and partner protection; and (3) Ancillary and continuing care. We discuss each of these domains with the aim of inspiring further work to advance the ethical conduct of HIV remission research. For example, experiences of confusion and uncertainty regarding illness and diagnosis during acute HIV infection may complicate informed consent procedures in studies that seek to recruit directly after diagnosis. To address this, it may be appropriate to use staged re-consent procedures or comprehension assessment. Responsible conduct of research requires a broad understanding of acute HIV infection that encompasses its biomedical, psychological, social, and behavioral dimensions. We argue that the lived experience of acute HIV infection may introduce ethical concerns that researchers and reviewers should address during study design and ethical approval.

Cohort profile: the Netherlands Cohort Study on Acute HIV infection (NOVA), a prospective cohort study of people with acute or early HIV infection who immediately initiate HIV treatment

PURPOSE

Initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) during acute or early HIV-infection (AEHI) limits the size of the viral reservoir and preserves immune function. This renders individuals who started cART during AEHI promising participants in HIV-cure trials. Therefore, we established a multicentre prospective cohort study in the Netherlands that enrols people with AEHI. In anticipation of future cure trials, we will longitudinally investigate the properties of the viral reservoir size and HIV-specific immune responses among cohort participants.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants immediately initiate intensified cART: dolutegravir, emtricitabine/tenofovir and darunavir/ritonavir (DRV/r). After 4 weeks, once baseline resistance data are available, DRV/r is discontinued. Three study groups are assembled based on the preparedness of individuals to participate in the extensiveness of sampling. Participants accepting immediate treatment and follow-up but declining additional sampling are included in study group 1 ('standard') and routine diagnostic procedures are performed. Participants willing to undergo blood, leukapheresis and semen sampling are included in study group 2 ('less invasive'). In study group 3 ('extended'), additional tissue (gut-associated lymphoid tissue, peripheral lymph node) and cerebrospinal fluid sampling are performed.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Between 2015 and 2020, 140 individuals with AEHI have been enrolled at nine study sites. At enrolment, median age was 36 (IQR 28-47) years, and 134 (95.7%) participants were men. Distribution of Fiebig stages was as follows: Fiebig I, 3 (2.1%); II, 20 (14.3%); III, 7 (5.0%); IV, 49 (35.0%); V, 39 (27.9%); VI, 22 (15.7%). Median plasma HIV RNA was 5.9 (IQR 4.7-6.7) log10 copies/mL and CD4 count 510 (IQR 370-700) cells/mm3. Median time from cART initiation to viral suppression was 8.0 (IQR 4.0-16.0) weeks.

FUTURE PLANS

The Netherlands Cohort Study on Acute HIV infection remains open for participant enrolment and for additional sites to join the network. This cohort provides a unique nationwide platform for conducting future in-depth virological, immunological, host genetic and interventional studies investigating HIV-cure strategies.

Novel Criteria for Diagnosing Acute and Early Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in a Multinational Study of Early Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation during acute and early human immunodeficiency virus infection (AEHI) limits HIV reservoir formation and may facilitate post-ART control but is logistically challenging. We evaluated the performance of AEHI diagnostic criteria from a prospective study of early ART initiation.

METHODS

AIDS Clinical Trials Group A 5354 enrolled adults at 30 sites in the Americas, Africa, and Asia who met any 1 of 6 criteria based on combinations of results of HIV RNA, HIV antibody, Western blot or Geenius assay, and/or the signal-to-cutoff (S/CO) ratio of the ARCHITECT HIV Ag/Ab Combo or GS HIV Combo Ag/Ab EIA. HIV status and Fiebig stage were confirmed by centralized testing.

RESULTS

From 2017 through 2019, 195 participants were enrolled with median age of 27 years (interquartile range, 23-39). Thirty (15.4%) were female. ART was started by 171 (87.7%) on the day of enrollment and 24 (12.3%) the next day. AEHI was confirmed in 188 (96.4%) participants after centralized testing, 4 (2.0%) participants were found to have chronic infection, and 3 (1.5%) found not to have HIV discontinued ART and were withdrawn. Retrospectively, a nonreactive or indeterminate HIV antibody on the Geenius assay combined with ARCHITECT S/CO ≥10 correctly identified 99 of 122 (81.2%) Fiebig II-IV AEHI cases with no false-positive results.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel AEHI criteria that incorporate ARCHITECT S/CO facilitated rapid and efficient ART initiation without waiting for an HIV RNA result. These criteria may facilitate AEHI diagnosis, staging, and immediate ART initiation in future research studies and clinical practice.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02859558.

Decreased Time to Viral Suppression After Implementation of Targeted Testing and Immediate Initiation of Treatment of Acute Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Amsterdam

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) with acute human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (AHI) are a key source of new infections. To curb transmission, we implemented a strategy for rapid AHI diagnosis and immediate initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in Amsterdam MSM. We assessed its effectiveness in diagnosing AHI and decreasing the time to viral suppression.

METHODS

We included 63 278 HIV testing visits in 2008-2017, during which 1013 MSM were diagnosed. Standard of care (SOC) included HIV diagnosis confirmation in < 1 week and cART initiation in < 1 month. The AHI strategy comprised same-visit diagnosis confirmation and immediate cART. Time from diagnosis to viral suppression was assessed for 3 cART initiation periods: (1) 2008-2011: cART initiation if CD4 < 500 cells/μL (SOC); (2) January 2012-July 2015: cART initiation if CD4 < 500 cells/μL, or if AHI or early HIV infection (SOC); and (3a) August 2015-June 2017: universal cART initiation (SOC) or (3b) August 2015-June 2017 (the AHI strategy).

RESULTS

Before implementation of the AHI strategy, the proportion of AHI among HIV diagnoses was 0.6% (5/876); after implementation this was 11.0% (15/137). Median time (in days) to viral suppression during periods 1, 2, 3a, and 3b was 584 (interquartile range [IQR], 267-1065), 230 (IQR, 132-480), 95 (IQR, 63-136), and 55 (IQR, 31-72), respectively (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing the AHI strategy was successful in diagnosing AHI and significantly decreasing the time between HIV diagnosis and viral suppression.

Derivation and Validation of an HIV Risk Prediction Score Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men to Inform PrEP Initiation in an STD Clinic Setting

BACKGROUND

Clinicians and health departments would ideally undertake targeted efforts to promote HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and frequent HIV testing using data-based criteria to identify populations at elevated risk for HIV. We developed an HIV risk prediction score for men who have sex with men (MSM) to identify individuals at substantial risk for HIV acquisition.

METHODS

We created a retrospective cohort of MSM who tested HIV-negative at the sexually transmitted disease clinic in Seattle, WA, from 2001 to 2015, and identified seroconversions using HIV surveillance data. We split the cohort randomly 2:1 into derivation and validation data sets, and used Cox proportional hazards to estimate the hazard of acquiring HIV associated with behavioral and clinical predictors, and the Akaike information criterion to determine which variables to retain in our model.

RESULTS

Among 16,448 MSM, 640 seroconverted over a 14.3-year follow-up period. The best prediction model included 13 variables and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% confidence interval: 0.71 to 0.76), 76% sensitivity, and 63% specificity at a score cutoff ≥11. A simplified model restricted to 2011-2015 included 4 predictors [methamphetamine use, condomless receptive anal intercourse (CRAI), ≥10 partners, and current diagnosis or self-reported gonorrhea/syphilis in the past year]. This model, the Seattle PrEP Score, had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.69 (95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 0.73), 62% sensitivity, and 70% specificity. One-year incidence was 0.5% for a score of 0, 0.7% for a score of 1, and 2.1% for scores ≥2.

CONCLUSIONS

The Seattle PrEP Score was predictive of HIV acquisition and could help clinicians and public health agencies identify MSM who could benefit from PrEP and frequent HIV testing.

Go Where the Virus Is: An HIV Micro-epidemic Control Approach to Stop HIV Transmission

Essentially all HIV transmission is from people living with HIV who are not virally suppressed. An HIV micro-epidemic control approach that differentiates treatment support and prevention services for people living with HIV and their network members according to viral burden could optimize the impact of epidemic control efforts.

Risk assessment and identification of HIV infection among men who have sex with men: a cross-sectional study in Southwest China

OBJECTIVES

The HIV epidemic is around 7%-20% among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Southwest China. The low HIV-testing rate highlights the need for tools to identify high-risk MSM in resource-limited regions. Our aim was, therefore, to evaluate the HIV RISK Assessment Tool for HIV prediction and to characterise the primary infection among MSM in Southwest China.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Guizhou province between January and December 2018. Participants were recruited from gay communities, among whom the HIV RISK Assessment Tool was evaluated. Logistic regression was used to analyse items associated with HIV and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve was calculated to quantify discrimination performance.

PARTICIPANTS

1330 MSM participants, of which 83 (6.2%) tested as HIV positive.

RESULTS

A higher composite score of the tool (adjusted OR (aOR) 9.33, 95% CI 4.57 to 19.05) was independently associated with HIV infection. Items positively associated with HIV infection included having 2-5 same sex partners (aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.28 to 4.64), always (aOR 5.93, 95% CI 1.59 to 22.13) or sometimes (aOR 4.25, 95% CI 2.09 to 8.64) having unprotected anal intercourse, taking both insertive and receptive sex roles (aOR 4.95, 95% CI 2.57 to 9.53) or only the receptive sex role (aOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.21 to 4.24). The tool showed an optimal discrimination ability (AUC=0.827), with a specificity of 0.747 and sensitivity of 0.785. Five MSM were identified with primary infection and had similar sexual risk behaviors as HIV-positive participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The HIV RISK Assessment Tool showed an overall good performance in predicting HIV risk among MSM in Guizhou province where the prevalence is still severe. This tool also demonstrated a potential to identify primary infection and is worth being promoted in resource-limited regions.

Acute and early HIV infection screening among men who have sex with men, a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Screening for acute and early HIV infections (AEHI) among men who have sex with men (MSM) remains uncommon in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, undiagnosed AEHI among MSM and subsequent failure to link to care are important drivers of the HIV epidemic. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of AEHI yield among MSM mobilized for AEHI testing; and assessed which risk factors and/or symptoms could increase AEHI yield in MSM.

METHODS

We systematically searched four databases from their inception through May 2020 for studies reporting strategies of mobilizing MSM for testing and their AEHI yield, or risk and/or symptom scores targeting AEHI screening. AEHI yield was defined as the proportion of AEHI cases among the total number of visits. Study estimates for AEHI yield were pooled using random effects models. Predictive ability of risk and/or symptom scores was expressed as the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Twenty-two studies were identified and included a variety of mobilization strategies (eight studies) and risk and/or symptom scores (fourteen studies). The overall pooled AEHI yield was 6.3% (95% CI, 2.1 to 12.4; I2  = 94.9%; five studies); yield varied between studies using targeted strategies (11.1%; 95% CI, 5.9 to 17.6; I2  = 83.8%; three studies) versus universal testing (1.6%; 95% CI, 0.8 to 2.4; two studies). The AUC of risk and/or symptom scores ranged from 0.69 to 0.89 in development study samples, and from 0.51 to 0.88 in validation study samples. AUC was the highest for scores including symptoms, such as diarrhoea, fever and fatigue. Key risk score variables were age, number of sexual partners, condomless receptive anal intercourse, sexual intercourse with a person living with HIV, a sexually transmitted infection, and illicit drug use. No studies were identified that assessed AEHI yield among MSM in SSA and risk and/or symptom scores developed among MSM in SSA lacked validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Strategies mobilizing MSM for targeted AEHI testing resulted in substantially higher AEHI yields than universal AEHI testing. Targeted AEHI testing may be optimized using risk and/or symptom scores, especially if scores include symptoms. Studies assessing AEHI yield and validation of risk and/or symptom scores among MSM in SSA are urgently needed.

Is reaching 90-90-90 enough to end AIDS? Lessons from Amsterdam

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Although cities present opportunities for infectious pathogens such as HIV to spread, public health infrastructure within these cities also provides opportunities to design effective approaches to eliminate transmission of these pathogens. The HIV Transmission Elimination AMsterdam (H-TEAM) Initiative, a consortium of relevant stakeholders involved in HIV prevention and care, designed an integrated approach to curb the HIV epidemic in Amsterdam, including providing preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), increasing awareness of acute HIV infection, offering same-day test and treat, and improving indicator disease-driven HIV testing.

RECENT FINDINGS

In 2013, approximately 230 people in Amsterdam were newly diagnosed with HIV, largely belonging to one of two key affected populations, namely MSM and people with a migration background. Since the start of H-TEAM in 2014, a decrease in new diagnoses was observed (130 in 2017), with an increasing proportion of MSM who had been diagnosed with a recent infection.

SUMMARY

The H-TEAM shows that a city-based concerted effort is feasible. However, major challenges remain, such as reducing the number of late HIV diagnoses, and identifying and providing appropriate services to a diminishing group of individuals who are likely the source of transmission.

Validation of the San Diego Early Test Score for Early Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Among Amsterdam Men Who Have Sex With Men

The San Diego Early Test score is a simple risk-assessment tool for acute, and early human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Validation in a prospective cohort of Amsterdam men who have sex with men showed fair prediction of HIV seroconversion (AUC, 0.701). This score can help prioritize and target HIV-prevention strategies.

A Simple Symptom Score for Acute Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in a San Diego Community-Based Screening Program

Background

Treatment of acute human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (AHI) decreases transmission and preserves immune function, but AHI diagnosis remains resource intensive. Risk-based scores predictive for AHI have been described for high-risk groups; however, symptom-based scores could be more generalizable across populations.

Methods

Adults who tested either positive for AHI (antibody-negative, HIV nucleic acid test [NAT] positive) or HIV NAT negative with the community-based San Diego Early Test HIV screening program were retrospectively randomized 2:1 into a derivation and validation set. In the former, symptoms significant for AHI in a multivariate logistic regression model were assigned a score value (the odds ratio [OR] rounded to the nearest integer). The score was assessed in the validation set using receiver operating characteristics and areas under the curve (AUC). An optimal cutoff score was found using the Youden index.

Results

Of 998 participants (including 261 non-men who have sex with men [MSM]), 113 had AHI (including 4 non-MSM). Compared to HIV-negative cases, AHI cases reported more symptoms (median, 4 vs 0; P < .01). Fever, myalgia, and weight loss were significantly associated with AHI in the multivariate model and corresponded to 11, 8, and 4 score points, respectively. The summed score yielded an AUC of 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], .77-.93). A score of ≥11 was 72% sensitive and 96% specific (diagnostic OR, 70.27).

Conclusions

A 3-symptom score accurately predicted AHI in a community-based screening program and may inform allocation of resources in settings that do not routinely screen for AHI.

Brief Report: The Amsterdam Symptom and Risk-Based Score Predicts for Acute HIV Infection in Men Who Have Sex With Men in San Diego

OBJECTIVE

Dijkstra et al recently described a risk- and symptom-based score moderately predictive for HIV seroconversion in the preceding 6-12 months in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Amsterdam. Our objective was to determine whether this "Amsterdam Score" could also predict for acute HIV infection (AHI) in MSM.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This study is a case-control analysis of a prospectively enrolled cohort of MSM who voluntarily presented for HIV testing in San Diego. The study sample was composed of MSM who screened HIV antibody-negative and then either tested positive with AHI [HIV nucleic acid test (NAT)-positive] or tested HIV NAT-negative.

METHODS

The Amsterdam Score was calculated for each participant in the study sample. Score performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and their area under the curve (AUC). An optimal cutoff was determined using the Youden index.

RESULTS

Seven hundred fifty-seven MSM (110 AHI and 647 HIV NAT-negative) were included in the analysis. AHI and HIV-negative cases were similar in age [median 32 years (interquartile range 26-42) vs 33 (27-45), respectively, P = 0.082]. The Amsterdam Score yielded a receiver operating characteristic curve with an AUC of 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.84 to 0.91). An optimal cutoff of ≥1.6 was 78.2% sensitive and 81.0% specific.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk- and symptom-based Amsterdam Score was highly predictive (AUC of 0.88) of AHI in MSM in San Diego. The Amsterdam Score could be used to target NAT utilization in resource-poor settings among MSM who test HIV antibody-negative, although the potential cost-savings must be balanced with the risk of missing AHI diagnoses.

Behavioural and demographic correlates of undiagnosed HIV infection in a MSM sample recruited in 13 European cities

Background

Reducing the number of people with undiagnosed HIV infection is a major goal of HIV control and prevention efforts in Europe and elsewhere. We analysed data from a large multi-city European bio-behavioural survey conducted among Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) for previously undiagnosed HIV infections, and aimed to characterise undiagnosed MSM who test less frequently than recommended.

Methods

Data on sexual behaviours and social characteristics of MSM with undiagnosed HIV infection from Sialon II, a bio-behavioural cross-sectional survey conducted in 13 European cities in 2013/2014, were compared with HIV-negative MSM. Based on reported HIV-testing patterns, we distinguished two subgroups: MSM with a negative HIV test result within 12 months prior to the study, i.e. undiagnosed incident infection, and HIV positive MSM with unknown onset of infection. Bivariate and multivariate associations of explanatory variables were analysed. Distinct multivariate multi-level random-intercept models were estimated for the entire group and both subgroups.

Results

Among 497 participants with HIV-reactive specimens, 234 (47.1%) were classified as previously diagnosed, 106 (21.3%) as incident, and 58 (11.7%) as unknown onset based on self-reported status and testing history. MSM with incident HIV infection were twice as likely (odds ratio (OR) = 2.22, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.17–4.21) to have used recreational substances during their last anal sex encounter and four times more likely (OR = 3.94, 95%CI: 2.14–7.27) not to discuss their HIV status with the last anal sex partner(s). MSM with unknown onset of HIV infection were 3.6 times more likely (OR = 3.61, 95%CI: 1.74–7.50) to report testing for a sexually transmitted infection (STI) during the last 12 months.

Conclusions

Approximately one third of the study participants who are living with HIV were unaware of their infection. Almost two-third (65%) of those with undiagnosed HIV appeared to have acquired the infection recently, emphasizing a need for more frequent testing. Men with the identified behavioural characteristics could be considered as primary target group for HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) to avoid HIV infection. The increased odds of those with unknown onset of HIV infection to have had an STI test in the past year strongly suggests a lost opportunity to offer HIV testing.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3249-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.