Seroprevalence for dengue virus in a hyperendemic area and associated socioeconomic and demographic factors using a cross-sectional design and a geostatistical approach, state of São Paulo, Brazil

Automatic mapping of high-risk urban areas for Aedes aegypti infestation based on building facade image analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, whose viruses are transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti, significantly impact human health worldwide. Despite the recent development of promising vaccines against the dengue virus, controlling these arbovirus diseases still depends on mosquito surveillance and control. Nonetheless, several studies have shown that these measures are not sufficiently effective or ineffective. Identifying higher-risk areas in a municipality and directing control efforts towards them could improve it. One tool for this is the premise condition index (PCI); however, its measure requires visiting all buildings. We propose a novel approach capable of predicting the PCI based on facade street-level images, which we call PCINet.

METHODOLOGY

Our study was conducted in Campinas, a one million-inhabitant city in São Paulo, Brazil. We surveyed 200 blocks, visited their buildings, and measured the three traditional PCI components (building and backyard conditions and shading), the facade conditions (taking pictures of them), and other characteristics. We trained a deep neural network with the pictures taken, creating a computational model that can predict buildings' conditions based on the view of their facades. We evaluated PCINet in a scenario emulating a real large-scale situation, where the model could be deployed to automatically monitor four regions of Campinas to identify risk areas.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

PCINet produced reasonable results in differentiating the facade condition into three levels, and it is a scalable strategy to triage large areas. The entire process can be automated through data collection from facade data sources and inferences through PCINet. The facade conditions correlated highly with the building and backyard conditions and reasonably well with shading and backyard conditions. The use of street-level images and PCINet could help to optimize Ae. aegypti surveillance and control, reducing the number of in-person visits necessary to identify buildings, blocks, and neighborhoods at higher risk from mosquito and arbovirus diseases.

A scoping literature review of global dengue age-stratified seroprevalence data: estimating dengue force of infection in endemic countries

BACKGROUND

Dengue poses a significant burden worldwide, and a more comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneity in the intensity of dengue transmission within endemic countries is necessary to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions.

METHODS

This scoping literature review aimed to update a previous study of dengue transmission intensity by collating global age-stratified dengue seroprevalence data published in the Medline, Embase and Web of Science databases from 2014 to 2023. These data were then utilised to calibrate catalytic models and estimate the force of infection (FOI), which is the yearly per-capita risk of infection for a typical susceptible individual.

FINDINGS

We found a total of 66 new publications containing 219 age-stratified seroprevalence datasets across 30 endemic countries. Together with the previously available average FOI estimates, there are now more than 250 dengue average FOI estimates obtained from seroprevalence studies from across the world.

INTERPRETATION

The results show large heterogeneities in average dengue FOI both across and within countries. These new estimates can be used to inform ongoing modelling efforts to improve our understanding of the drivers of the heterogeneity in dengue transmission globally, which in turn can help inform the optimal implementation of public health interventions.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Community Jameel, Drugs for Neglected Disease initiative (DNDi) funded by the French Development Agency, Médecins Sans Frontières International; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and UK aid.

Diabetes as risk factor to severity of dengue in naïve patients

Background

Dengue cases can progress to severe ant life-threating forms particularly in subsequent heterologous infections. However, recent studies had explored additional risk factors, including underlying health conditions, even in individuals without prior exposure to dengue, notably, in patients with endothelial dysfunction and chronic inflammation. This study examines the link between diabetes and the development of severe dengue disease in dengue-naive patients during the 2019 dengue outbreak in São Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil.

Methodology

We enrolled 529 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases, identified through DENV RT-PCR or NS1 antigen assays in a hospital cohort of acute febrile illness. Subsequently, we investigated the presence of anti-dengue and anti-Zika IgG antibodies. Samples testing positive for Zika were excluded from the analyses. Two groups were analyzed: naïve (DV-), and dengue history (DV+).

Results

Initially, presence of diabetes and kidney disease, as well as being dengue-naive, were associated with a higher frequency of severe and potentially severe clinical outcomes. Multivariate analysis identified diabetes as a risk factor, while the presence of anti-dengue antibodies was considered protective. Analysis of dengue naïve samples, highlighted diabetes as an independent risk factor to severe forms of dengue disease. In DV+ patients, no condition was highlighted as a risk factor by univariate analysis or multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

We investigated and confirmed diabetes as a risk factor for severe dengue disease in individuals without prior dengue or Zika exposure. Our conclusions raise significant concerns given diabetes' ever increasing global prevalence and its potential impact on patients with or previous dengue exposure.

Yellow Fever Emergence: Role of Heterologous Flavivirus Immunity in Preventing Urban Transmission

During major, recent yellow fever (YF) epidemics in Brazil, human cases were attributed only to spillover infections from sylvatic transmission with no evidence of human amplification. Furthermore, the historic absence of YF in Asia, despite abundant peridomestic Aedes aegypti and naive human populations, represents a longstanding enigma. We tested the hypothesis that immunity from dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) flaviviruses limits YF virus (YFV) viremia and transmission by Ae. aegypti . Prior DENV and ZIKV immunity consistently suppressed YFV viremia in experimentally infected macaques, leading to reductions in Ae. aegypti infection when mosquitoes were fed on infected animals. These results indicate that, in DENV- and ZIKV-endemic regions such as South America and Asia, flavivirus immunity suppresses YFV human amplification potential, reducing the risk of urban outbreaks.

One-Sentence Summary

Immunity from dengue and Zika viruses suppresses yellow fever viremia, preventing infection of mosquitoes and reducing the risk of epidemics.

Cryptic circulation of chikungunya virus in São Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, 2015-2019

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has spread across Brazil with varying incidence rates depending on the affected areas. Due to cocirculation of arboviruses and overlapping disease symptoms, CHIKV infection may be underdiagnosed. To understand the lack of CHIKV epidemics in São José do Rio Preto (SJdRP), São Paulo (SP), Brazil, we evaluated viral circulation by investigating anti-CHIKV IgG seroconversion in a prospective study of asymptomatic individuals and detecting anti-CHIKV IgM in individuals suspected of dengue infection, as well as CHIKV presence in Aedes mosquitoes. The opportunity to assess two different groups (symptomatic and asymptomatic) exposed at the same geographic region aimed to broaden the possibility of identifying the viral circulation, which had been previously considered absent.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Based on a prospective population study model and demographic characteristics (sex and age), we analyzed the anti-CHIKV IgG seroconversion rate in 341 subjects by ELISA over four years. The seroprevalence increased from 0.35% in the first year to 2.3% after 3 years of follow-up. Additionally, we investigated 497 samples from a blood panel collected from dengue-suspected individuals during the 2019 dengue outbreak in SJdRP. In total, 4.4% were positive for anti-CHIKV IgM, and 8.6% were positive for IgG. To exclude alphavirus cross-reactivity, we evaluated the presence of anti-Mayaro virus (MAYV) IgG by ELISA, and the positivity rate was 0.3% in the population study and 0.8% in the blood panel samples. In CHIKV and MAYV plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNTs), the positivity rate for CHIKV-neutralizing antibodies in these ELISA-positive samples was 46.7%, while no MAYV-neutralizing antibodies were detected. Genomic sequencing and phylogenetic analysis revealed CHIKV genotype ECSA in São José do Rio Preto, SP. Finally, mosquitoes collected to complement human surveillance revealed CHIKV positivity of 2.76% of A. aegypti and 9.09% of A. albopictus (although it was far less abundant than A. aegypti) by RT-qPCR.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our data suggest cryptic CHIKV circulation in SJdRP detected by continual active surveillance. These low levels, but increasing, of viral circulation highlight the possibility of CHIKV outbreaks, as there is a large naïve population. Improved knowledge of the epidemiological situation might aid in outbreaks prevention.

Influence of previous Zika virus infection on acute dengue episode

BACKGROUND

The co-circulation of flaviviruses in tropical regions has led to the hypothesis that immunity generated by a previous dengue infection could promote severe disease outcomes in subsequent infections by heterologous serotypes. This study investigated the influence of antibodies generated by previous Zika infection on the clinical outcomes of dengue infection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We enrolled 1,043 laboratory confirmed dengue patients and investigated their prior infection to Zika or dengue. Severe forms of dengue disease were more frequent in patients with previous Zika infection, but not in those previously exposed to dengue.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our findings suggest that previous Zika infection may represent a risk factor for subsequent severe dengue disease, but we did not find evidence of antibody-dependent enhancement (higher viral titer or pro-inflammatory cytokine overexpression) contributing to exacerbation of the subsequent dengue infection.

Knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) and risk factors on dengue fever among children in Brazil, Fortaleza: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease that is associated with four serotypes of the dengue virus. Children are vulnerable to infection with the dengue virus, particularly those who have been previously infected with a different dengue serotype. Sufficient knowledge, positive attitudes, and proper practices (KAP) are essential for dengue prevention and control. This study aims to estimate the dengue seropositivity for study participants and to examine the association between households' dengue-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP), and children's risk of dengue seropositivity, while accounting for socioeconomic and demographic differences in Brazil.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

This analysis was based on a cross-sectional study from Fortaleza, Brazil between November 2019, and February 2020. There were 392 households and 483 participant children who provided a sample of sufficient quality for serological analysis. The main exposure was a household's dengue-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices, assessed through a questionnaire to construct a composite KAP score categorized into three levels: low, moderate, and high. The main outcome is dengue immunoglobulin G(IgG) antibodies, collected using dried blood spots and assessed with Panbio Dengue IgG indirect ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays) test commercial kits. The estimated crude dengue seroprevalence among participating children (n = 483) was 25%. Five percent of households (n = 20) achieved a score over 75% for KAP, sixty-nine percent of households (n = 271) scored between 50% and 75%, and twenty-six percent of households (n = 101) scored lower than 50%. Each KAP domain was significantly and positively associated with the others. The mean percentage scores for the three domains are 74%, 63%, and 39% respectively. We found high household KAP scores were associated with an increased adjusted relative risk (aRR) of seropositivity (aRR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.11-4.01, p = 0.023). Household adult respondents' education level of elementary school or higher was negatively associated with children's risk of being seropositive (aRR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.48-0.87, p = 0.005). The risk of seropositivity in older children (6-12 years old) was over 6 times that of younger children (2-5 years old) (aRR: 6.08, 95% CI: 3.47-10.64, p<0.001). Children living in households with sealed water tanks or no water storage had a lower risk of being seropositive (aRR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.54-0.98, p = 0.035).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results provide insight into the prevalence of dengue seropositivity in Fortaleza, Brazil in children, and certain demographic and socioeconomic characteristics associated with children's risk of being seropositive. They also suggest that KAP may not identify those more at-risk for dengue, although understanding and enhancing households' KAP is crucial for effective community dengue control and prevention initiatives.

Seroprevalence of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika at the epicenter of the congenital microcephaly epidemic in Northeast Brazil: A population-based survey

BACKGROUND

The four Dengue viruses (DENV) serotypes were re-introduced in Brazil's Northeast region in a couple of decades, between 1980's and 2010's, where the DENV1 was the first detected serotype and DENV4 the latest. Zika (ZIKV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses were introduced in Recife around 2014 and led to large outbreaks in 2015 and 2016, respectively. However, the true extent of the ZIKV and CHIKV outbreaks, as well as the risk factors associated with exposure to these viruses remain vague.

METHODS

We conducted a stratified multistage household serosurvey among residents aged between 5 and 65 years in the city of Recife, Northeast Brazil, from August 2018 to February 2019. The city neighborhoods were stratified and divided into high, intermediate, and low socioeconomic strata (SES). Previous ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV infections were detected by IgG-based enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Recent ZIKV and CHIKV infections were assessed through IgG3 and IgM ELISA, respectively. Design-adjusted seroprevalence were estimated by age group, sex, and SES. The ZIKV seroprevalence was adjusted to account for the cross-reactivity with dengue. Individual and household-related risk factors were analyzed through regression models to calculate the force of infection. Odds Ratio (OR) were estimated as measure of effect.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 2,070 residents' samples were collected and analyzed. The force of viral infection for high SES were lower as compared to low and intermediate SES. DENV seroprevalence was 88.7% (CI95%:87.0-90.4), and ranged from 81.2% (CI95%:76.9-85.6) in the high SES to 90.7% (CI95%:88.3-93.2) in the low SES. The overall adjusted ZIKV seroprevalence was 34.6% (CI95%:20.0-50.9), and ranged from 47.4% (CI95%:31.8-61.5) in the low SES to 23.4% (CI95%:12.2-33.8) in the high SES. The overall CHIKV seroprevalence was 35.7% (CI95%:32.6-38.9), and ranged from 38.6% (CI95%:33.6-43.6) in the low SES to 22.3% (CI95%:15.8-28.8) in the high SES. Surprisingly, ZIKV seroprevalence rapidly increased with age in the low and intermediate SES, while exhibited only a small increase with age in high SES. CHIKV seroprevalence according to age was stable in all SES. The prevalence of serological markers of ZIKV and CHIKV recent infections were 1.5% (CI95%:0.1-3.7) and 3.5% (CI95%:2.7-4.2), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirmed continued DENV transmission and intense ZIKV and CHIKV transmission during the 2015/2016 epidemics followed by ongoing low-level transmission. The study also highlights that a significant proportion of the population is still susceptible to be infected by ZIKV and CHIKV. The reasons underlying a ceasing of the ZIKV epidemic in 2017/18 and the impact of antibody decay in susceptibility to future DENV and ZIKV infections may be related to the interplay between disease transmission mechanism and actual exposure in the different SES.

A Systematic Review on Modeling Methods and Influential Factors for Mapping Dengue-Related Risk in Urban Settings

Dengue fever is an acute mosquito-borne disease that mostly spreads within urban or semi-urban areas in warm climate zones. The dengue-related risk map is one of the most practical tools for executing effective control policies, breaking the transmission chain, and preventing disease outbreaks. Mapping risk at a small scale, such as at an urban level, can demonstrate the spatial heterogeneities in complicated built environments. This review aims to summarize state-of-the-art modeling methods and influential factors in mapping dengue fever risk in urban settings. Data were manually extracted from five major academic search databases following a set of querying and selection criteria, and a total of 28 studies were analyzed. Twenty of the selected papers investigated the spatial pattern of dengue risk by epidemic data, whereas the remaining eight papers developed an entomological risk map as a proxy for potential dengue burden in cities or agglomerated urban regions. The key findings included: (1) Big data sources and emerging data-mining techniques are innovatively employed for detecting hot spots of dengue-related burden in the urban context; (2) Bayesian approaches and machine learning algorithms have become more popular as spatial modeling tools for predicting the distribution of dengue incidence and mosquito presence; (3) Climatic and built environmental variables are the most common factors in making predictions, though the effects of these factors vary with the mosquito species; (4) Socio-economic data may be a better representation of the huge heterogeneity of risk or vulnerability spatial distribution on an urban scale. In conclusion, for spatially assessing dengue-related risk in an urban context, data availability and the purpose for mapping determine the analytical approaches and modeling methods used. To enhance the reliabilities of predictive models, sufficient data about dengue serotyping, socio-economic status, and spatial connectivity may be more important for mapping dengue-related risk in urban settings for future studies.

Dengue Seroprevalence and Factors Associated with Dengue Seropositivity in Petaling District, Malaysia

Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a major public health concern, posing huge economic and disease burdens globally. In Malaysia, the incidence of DENV infections has increased significantly over the years. Nevertheless, the passive surveillance mechanism applied may not capture the actual magnitude of DENV infection. There was also a paucity of community-based studies exploring DENV seroprevalence. This study aimed to determine the DENV seroprevalence and the associated factors among the urban population in Petaling district, Malaysia. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted from 18 August to 26 October 2018 with 533 participants recruited. Blood samples were collected and analysed for DENV seropositivity using a composite reference standard comprised of three dengue serological tests. Associated factors were identified by fitting Generalised Linear Mixed Models with binomial error structure and logit link function. DENV seroprevalence obtained was 79.0% (95% CI: 75.2–82.4%). The age-specific DENV seroprevalence showed an increasing trend with advancing age, from 22.7% (95% CI: 9.6–45.0%) for those aged below five years old to 94.9% (95% CI: 81.3–98.7%) for those aged ≥60 years old. Only age group and house level were found to be significant factors associated with DENV seropositivity. The odds of being DENV seropositive generally increased with age, from 13.43 (95% CI: 2.77–65.22) for the 5–9 years old age group to 384.77 (95% CI: 39.27–3769.97) for the ≥60 years old age group, as compared to those aged below 5 years old. For house level, those who lived on the first and second floor (OR: 8.98, 95% CI: 3.16–25.12) and the third floor and above (OR: 4.82, 95% CI: 1.89–12.32) had greater odds of being DENV seropositive compared to those living on the ground floor. This study demonstrated the persistently high DENV seroprevalence among the urban population in Petaling district, which could be useful to evaluate dengue control measures taken and estimate more accurate disease incidence. The associated factors with DENV seropositivity identified could also contribute to undertaking more targeted preventive and control measures.

Association between densities of adult and immature stages of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in space and time: implications for vector surveillance

BACKGROUND

Mosquito control is currently the main tool available to contain the spread of several arboviruses in Brazil. We have evaluated the association between entomological surveys of female adult Aedes aegypti and the Breteau index (BI) in space and time in a hyperendemic area, and compared the human resources costs required to measure each of these indicators.

METHODS

Entomological surveys were conducted between 2016 and 2019 in Vila Toninho, a neighborhood in the city of São José do Rio Preto, Brazil. Monthly records of collected mosquito specimens were made and then grouped by season.

RESULTS

Our findings showed that adult and immature mosquitoes are more related in time than in space, possibly due to differences in their habitats or in climate variables. Bayesian temporal modeling revealed that an increase in 1 standard deviation in the BI was associated with a 27% increase in the number of adult female mosquitoes when adjusted for climatic conditions. The cost of entomological surveys of adult mosquitoes was found to be 83% lower than the cost of determining the BI when covering the same geographic area.

CONCLUSIONS

For fine-scale assessments, a simple measure of adult Ae. aegypti abundance may be more realistic than aquatic indicators, but the adult indices are not necessarily the only reliable measure. Surveying adult female mosquitoes has significant potential for optimizing vector control strategies because, unlike the BI, this tool provides an effective indicator for micro-areas within an urban region. It should be noted that the results of the present study may be due to specific features of of the study area, and future studies should analyze whether the patterns found in the study neighborhood are also found in other regions.

Socioeconomic risk markers of arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) infections: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are of notable public health importance worldwide, owing to their potential to cause explosive outbreaks and induce debilitating and potentially life-threatening disease manifestations. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to assess the relationship between markers of socioeconomic position (SEP) and infection due to arboviruses with mosquito vectors.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Embase, and LILACS databases to identify studies published between 1980 and 2020 that measured the association of SEP markers with arbovirus infection. We included observational studies without geographic location or age restrictions. We excluded studies from grey literature, reviews and ecological studies. Study findings were extracted and summarised, and pooled estimates were obtained using random-effects meta-analyses.

Results

We identified 36 observational studies using data pertaining to 106 524 study participants in 23 geographic locations that empirically examined the relationship between socioeconomic factors and infections caused by seven arboviruses (dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, Rift Valley fever, Sindbis, West Nile and Zika viruses). While results were varied, descriptive synthesis pointed to a higher risk of arbovirus infection associated with markers of lower SEP, including lower education, income poverty, low healthcare coverage, poor housing materials, interrupted water supply, marital status (married, divorced or widowed), non-white ethnicities and migration status. Pooled crude estimates indicated an increased risk of arboviral infection associated with lower education (risk ratio, RR 1.5 95% CI 1.3 to 1.9); I²=83.1%), interruption of water supply (RR 1.2; 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3; I²=0.0%) and having been married (RR 1.5 95% CI 1.1 to 2.1; I²=85.2%).

Conclusion

Evidence from this systematic review suggests that lower SEP increases the risk of acquiring arboviral infection; however, there was large heterogeneity across studies. Further studies are required to delineate the relationship between specific individual, household and community-level SEP indicators and arbovirus infection risks to help inform targeted public health interventions.

PROSPERO registration number

CRD42019158572.

Epidemiology of Indigenous Dengue Cases in Zhejiang Province, Southeast China

Objective

Autochthonous transmission of the dengue virus (DENV) occurred each year from 2014 to 2018 in Zhejiang province, and became an emerging public health problem. We characterized the autochthonous transmission of the DENV and traced the source of infection for further control and prevention of dengue.

Methods

Descriptive and spatiotemporal cluster analyses were conducted to characterize the epidemiology of autochthonous transmission of the DENV. Molecular epidemiology was used to identify the infection source.

Results

In total, 1,654 indigenous cases and 12 outbreaks, with no deaths, were reported during 2004–2018. Before 2017, all outbreaks occurred in suburban areas. During 2017–2018, five out of eight outbreaks occurred in urban areas. The median duration of outbreaks (28 days) in 2017–2018 was shortened significantly (P = 0.028) in comparison with that in 2004–2016 (71 days). The median onset-visiting time, visiting-confirmation time, and onset-confirmation time was 1, 3, and 4 days, respectively. The DENV serotypes responsible for autochthonous transmission in Zhejiang Province were DENV 1, DENV 2, and DENV 3, with DENV 1 being the most frequently reported. Southeast Asia was the predominant source of indigenous infection.

Conclusions

Zhejiang Province witnessed an increase in the frequency, incidence, and geographic expansion of indigenous Dengue cases in recent years. The more developed coastal and central region of Zhejiang Province was impacted the most.

Neighbourhood-level income and Zika virus infection during pregnancy in Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil: an ecological perspective, 2015-2017

Zika virus (ZIKV) infections during pregnancy can lead to adverse neurodevelopmental and clinical outcomes in congenitally infected offspring. As the city of Recife in Pernambuco State, Brazil—the epicentre of the Brazilian microcephaly epidemic—has considerable disparities in living conditions, this study used an ecological approach to investigate the association between income at the neighbourhood level and the risk of ZIKV infections in pregnant individuals between December 2015 and April 2017. The spatial distribution of pregnant individuals with ZIKV infection was plotted on a map of Recife stratified into four categories based on mean monthly income of household heads. Additionally, a Poisson regression model with robust variance was fitted to compare proportions of ZIKV infections among pregnant individuals in relation to the mean monthly income of household heads, based on the 2010 census data, across 94 neighbourhoods in Recife. The results provide evidence that the risk of ZIKV infection to pregnant individuals was higher among those residing in lower-income neighbourhoods: relative to neighbourhoods that had a mean monthly income of ≥5 times minimum wage, neighbourhoods with <1 and 1 to <2 times minimum wage had more than four times the risk (incidence rate ratio, 95% CI 4.08, 1.88 to 8.85 and 4.30, 2.00 to 9.20, respectively). This study provides evidence of a strong association between neighbourhood-level income and ZIKV infection risks in the pregnant population of Recife. In settings prone to arboviral outbreaks, locally targeted interventions to improve living conditions, sanitation, and mosquito control should be a key focus of governmental interventions to reduce risks associated with ZIKV infections during pregnancy.

Effect of social isolation in dengue cases in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: An analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown that human mobility is an important factor in dengue epidemiology. Changes in mobility resulting from COVID-19 pandemic set up a real-life situation to test this hypothesis. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of reduced mobility due to this pandemic in the occurrence of dengue in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

METHOD

It is an ecological study of time series, developed between January and August 2020. We use the number of confirmed dengue cases and residential mobility, on a daily basis, from secondary information sources. Mobility was represented by the daily percentage variation of residential population isolation, obtained from the Google database. We modeled the relationship between dengue occurrence and social distancing by negative binomial regression, adjusted for seasonality. We represent the social distancing dichotomously (isolation versus no isolation) and consider lag for isolation from the dates of occurrence of dengue.

RESULTS

The risk of dengue decreased around 9.1% (95% CI: 14.2 to 3.7) in the presence of isolation, considering a delay of 20 days between the degree of isolation and the dengue first symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

We have shown that mobility can play an important role in the epidemiology of dengue and should be considered in surveillance and control activities.

A spatio-temporal analysis of dengue spread in a Brazilian dry climate region

We investigated the relation between the spread, time scale, and spatial arrangement of dengue in Bahia, a Brazilian dry climate region, for the period 2000 to 2009. The degree of cross-correlation is calculated for 15 economic regions. We propose a multiscale statistical analysis to datasets of dengue cases in order to verify the effect of infection dispersal on the economic regions from the metropolitan region of Salvador. Our empirical results support a significant and persistent cross-correlation between most regions, reinforcing the idea that economic regions or climatic conditions are non-statistically significant in the spread of dengue in the State of Bahia. Our main contribution lies in the cross-correlation results revealing multiple aspects related to the propagation of dengue in dry climate regions.

Dengue RNA detection and seroprevalence in blood donors during an outbreak in the São Paulo State, Brazil, 2016

Most dengue virus (DENV) infections remain asymptomatic. This increases the risk of DENV transfusion transmission (TT-DENV) during outbreaks. We evaluated DENV viremia in 8475 blood donations assembled in minipools for the presence of DENV RNA. The tested samples were obtained between February and May, 2016, during a large DENV outbreak in Ribeirão Preto city, northeast region of the São Paulo State, Brazil. The DENV RNA + samples were serotyped and screened for DENV NS1. We also tested a significant number of plasma samples (n = 372) to estimate the DENV seroprevalence among blood donors in the region. We detected three DENV RNA + samples in the tested blood donations (n = 3/8475, 0.04%). From these, two samples were further serotyped as DENV-1 and one sample as DENV-2. All DENV RNA positive samples were negative for anti-DENV IgG, indicating the presence of primary acute infection. Moreover, two of the DENV RNA + samples were also NS1 antigen positive (antigenemia). The anti-DENV IgG seroprevalence among blood donor population was 50.8% (n = 189/372). Our results are in accordance with the presence of DENV primary infection in blood donors which can lead to transfusion transmission of the infection to recipients. Measures to exclude such donors should be adopted to prevent TT-DENV.

Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions

Spatial connectivity plays an important role in mosquito-borne disease transmission. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared environments, vector ecology and human movement. This systematic review synthesizes the spatial methods used to model mosquito-borne diseases, their spatial connectivity assumptions and the data used to inform spatial model components. We identified 248 papers eligible for inclusion. Most used statistical models (84.2%), although mechanistic are increasingly used. We identified 17 spatial models which used one of four methods (spatial covariates, local regression, random effects/fields and movement matrices). Over 80% of studies assumed that connectivity was distance-based despite this approach ignoring distant connections and potentially oversimplifying the process of transmission. Studies were more likely to assume connectivity was driven by human movement if the disease was transmitted by an Aedes mosquito. Connectivity arising from human movement was more commonly assumed in studies using a mechanistic model, likely influenced by a lack of statistical models able to account for these connections. Although models have been increasing in complexity, it is important to select the most appropriate, parsimonious model available based on the research question, disease transmission process, the spatial scale and availability of data, and the way spatial connectivity is assumed to occur.

Presentation of fatal stroke due to SARS-CoV-2 and dengue virus coinfection

Herein, we report a case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and dengue coinfection, presented as a fatal stroke in our hospital, in São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo State, a Brazilian city hyperendemic for dengue viruses and other arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) and currently facing a surge of SARS-CoV-2 cases. This case is the first described in the literature and contributes to the better understanding of clinical presentations of two important diseases in a tropical setting.

Zika, dengue and chikungunya population prevalence in Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil, and the importance of seroprevalence studies to estimate the real number of infected individuals

In the last 40 years, Latin America countries, including Brazil, have suffered from the emergence and reemergence of arboviruses, first Dengue (DENV) and recently Zika (ZIKV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV). All three arboviruses are currently endemic in Brazil and have caused major outbreaks in recent years. Rio de Janeiro city, host of the last Summer Olympic Games and the Football World Cup, has been specially affected by them. A surveillance system based on symptomatic reports is in place in Rio, but the true number of affected individuals is unknown due to the great number of Zika, Dengue and Chikungunya asymptomatic cases. Seroprevalence studies are more suitable to evaluate the real number of cases in a given population. We performed a populational seroprevalence survey in Rio, with recruitment of a sample of volunteers of all ages and gender from July to October 2018, within randomly selected census tracts and household. A total of 2,120 volunteers were interviewed and tested with rapid immunochromatographic test for ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV. Individuals with positive results for IgG and/or IgM from only one virus were classified accordingly, while those with test results positive for both ZIKV and DENV were classified as flaviviruses. We corrected for sample design and non-response in data analysis, and calculated point estimate prevalence and 95% confidence intervals for each virus. Arbovirus prevalence in the Rio's population (n = 6,688,927) was estimated at 48.6% [95% CI 44.8–52.4] (n = 3,254,121) for flaviviruses and at 18.0% [95% CI 14.8–21.2] (n = 1,204,765) for CHIKV. Approximately 17.0% [95% CI 14.1–20.1] (n = 1,145,674) of Rio´s population had no contact with any of the three arboviruses. The reported cases of Zika, Dengue and Chikungunya by the current surveillance system in place is insufficient to estimate their real numbers, and our data indicate that Zika seroprevalence could be at least five times and Chikungunya 45 times bigger. The high number of individuals having never been infected by any of the three arboviruses, may indicate a proper scenario for future outbreaks.

Predicting Aedes aegypti infestation using landscape and thermal features

Identifying Aedes aegypti breeding hotspots in urban areas is crucial for the design of effective vector control strategies. Remote sensing techniques offer valuable tools for mapping habitat suitability. In this study, we evaluated the association between urban landscape, thermal features, and mosquito infestations. Entomological surveys were conducted between 2016 and 2019 in Vila Toninho, a neighborhood of São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil, in which the numbers of adult female Ae. aegypti were recorded monthly and grouped by season for three years. We used data from 2016 to 2018 to build the model and data from summer of 2019 to validate it. WorldView-3 satellite images were used to extract land cover classes, and land surface temperature data were obtained using the Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS). A multilevel negative binomial model was fitted to the data, which showed that the winter season has the greatest influence on decreases in mosquito abundance. Green areas and pavements were negatively associated, and a higher cover of asbestos roofs and exposed soil was positively associated with the presence of adult females. These features are related to socio-economic factors but also provide favorable breeding conditions for mosquitos. The application of remote sensing technologies has significant potential for optimizing vector control strategies, future mosquito suppression, and outbreak prediction.

Evaluating the validity of dengue clinical-epidemiological criteria for diagnosis in patients residing in a Brazilian endemic area

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the validity of clinical diagnosis compared with laboratory diagnosis of dengue in a retrospective sample of patients in São José do Rio Preto, Brazil.

METHODS

Our sample included 148 299 clinically (56.3%) or laboratory-diagnosed (43.7%) dengue cases. We compared the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) of dengue patients' demographic and clinical characteristics with laboratory-based diagnosis. We used logistic regressions to estimate the correlation between clinical and laboratory diagnosis of dengue and a full set of dengue signs and symptoms.

RESULTS

We found substantial variability in sensitivity and specificity of signs and symptoms ranging from 0.8-81.1 and 21.5-99.6, respectively. Thrombocytopenia exhibited the highest PPV (92.0) and lowest NPV (42.2) and was the only symptom showing agreement with laboratory-confirmed dengue (φ = 0.38). The presence of exanthema and thrombocytopenia led to a greater likelihood of concordant clinical and laboratory diagnoses (exanthema: OR: 4.23; 95% CI: 2.09 to 8.57; thrombocytopenia: OR: 4.02; 95% CI: 1.32 to 12.27).

CONCLUSIONS

We found substantial variation in sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of dengue signs and symptoms. For accuracy, clinical and laboratory diagnosis of dengue should be performed concurrently. When laboratory tests are not available, we suggest focusing on the clinical manifestations most associated with dengue.

Flavivirus Infection Associated with Cerebrovascular Events

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) of the genus Flavivirus are distributed globally and cause significant human disease and mortality annually. Flavivirus infections present a spectrum of clinical manifestations, ranging from asymptomatic to severe manifestations, including hemorrhage, encephalitis and death. Herein, we describe 3 case reports of cerebrovascular involvement in patients infected by dengue and Zika viruses in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, a hyperendemic area for arbovirus circulation, including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Saint Louis encephalitis viruses. Our findings highlight the potential threat that unusual clinical manifestations may pose to arbovirus disease management and recovery.

Remote sensing for risk mapping of Aedes aegypti infestations: Is this a practical task?

Mosquito-borne diseases affect millions of individuals worldwide; the area of endemic transmission has been increasing due to several factors linked to globalization, urban sprawl, and climate change. The Aedes aegypti mosquito plays a central role in the dissemination of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and urban yellow fever. Current preventive measures include mosquito control programs; however, identifying high-risk areas for mosquito infestation over a large geographic region based only on field surveys is labor-intensive and time-consuming. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess the potential of remote satellite images (WorldView) for determining land features associated with Ae. aegypti adult infestations in São José do Rio Preto/SP, Brazil. We used data from 60 adult mosquito traps distributed along four summers; the remote sensing images were classified by land cover types using a supervised classification method. We modeled the number of Ae. aegypti using a Poisson probability distribution with a geostatistical approach. The models were constructed in a Bayesian context using the Integrated nested Laplace Approximations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equation method. We showed that an infestation of Ae. aegypti adult mosquitoes was positively associated with the presence of asbestos roofing and roof slabs. This may be related to several other factors, such as socioeconomic or environmental factors. The usage of asbestos roofing may be more prevalent in socioeconomically poor areas, while roof slabs may retain rainwater and contribute to the generation of temporary mosquito breeding sites. Although preliminary, our results demonstrate the utility of satellite remote sensing in identifying landscape differences in urban environments using a geostatistical approach, and indicated directions for future research. Further analyses including other variables, such as land surface temperature, may reveal more complex relationships between urban mosquito micro-habitats and land cover features.