Estimating the nationwide transmission risk of measles in US schools and impacts of vaccination and supplemental infection control strategies

Measles outbreak investigation in Tocha district, southwestern Ethiopia: an unmatched case-control study

Background

Measles continues to be a public health challenge in Ethiopia. Rumors of suspected measles were notified on April 8, 2023 from Tocha district. We conducted an assessment to describe measles outbreak and determine risk factors for measles infection in the Tocha district of the Dawuro zone, Southwest Ethiopia.

Methods

We conducted a 1:2 unmatched case-control studies from April to May 2023. We took all 147 cases registered on line list for descriptive analyses. We used a total of 74 randomly selected cases and 147 controls for case-control part. Any person in Tocha district with laboratory-confirmed measles IgM antibody; or any suspected person epidemiologically linked to confirmed measles cases from March 23 to April 26 2023, were included in the case. Neighborhood who did not fulfill this standard case definition were included in controls. Data were collected using standardized questionnaires deployed on Kobo Collect. Descriptive analyses were conducted using Epi info version 7.2.5.0. The analyses were performed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 26. Binary logistic regression analyses were utilized to select candidate variables. We conducted multiple logistic regression analysis to identify determinants of measles infection at a p value ≤0.05 with 95% confidence interval.

Results

The overall attack rate of 22.64/10,000 for general population and 104.59/10,000 among under-five children were attributed to the outbreak with a case fatality rate of 2.72%. Vaccine coverage in the last year and this year were 73.52 and 53.88%, respectively, while vaccine effectiveness in the district was 79%. Poor house ventilation (AOR = 3.540, 95% CI: 1.663-7.535) and having contact history with the case (AOR = 2.528, 95% CI: 1.180-4.557) were positively related to measles infection while being previously vaccinated for measles (AOR = 0.209, 95% CI: 0.180-4.577) reduce risk of measles infections.

Conclusion

The highest attack rate was observed among children under 5 years of age, with a case fatality rate of 2.72%. Vaccination coverage was less than what expected to develop herd immunity. Strategies to increase vaccination coverage and strengthening surveillance systems for rumor identification and early responses to prevent person to person transmission are recommended.

Chickenpox Outbreaks in Three Refugee Camps on Mainland Greece, 2016-2017: A Retrospective Study

INTRODUCTION

Displaced populations face disproportionately high risk of communicable disease outbreaks given the strains of travel, health care circumstances in their country of origin, and limited access to health care in receiving countries.

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Understanding the role of demographic characteristics in outbreaks is important for timely and efficient control measures. Accordingly, this study assesses chickenpox outbreaks in three large refugee camps on mainland Greece from 2016 - 2017, using clinical line-list data from Médecins du Monde (MdM) clinics.

METHODS

Clinical line-list data from MdM clinics operating in Elliniko, Malakasa, and Raidestos camps in mainland Greece were used to characterize chickenpox outbreaks in these camps. Logistic regression was used to compare the odds of chickenpox by sex, camp, and yearly increase in age. Incidences were calculated for age categories and for sex for each camp outbreak.

RESULTS

Across camps, the median age was 19 years (IQR: 7.00 - 30.00 years) for all individuals and five years (IQR: 2.00 - 8.00 years) for cases. Males were 55.94% of the total population and 51.32% of all cases. There were four outbreaks of chickenpox across Elliniko (n = 1), Malakasa (n = 2), and Raidestos (n = 1) camps. The odds of chickenpox when controlling for age and sex was lower for Malakasa (OR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.38 - 0.78) and Raidestos (OR = 0.36; 95% CI, 0.24 - 0.56) when compared Elliniko. Odds of chickenpox were comparable between Malakasa and Raidestos (OR = 1.49; 95% CI, 0.92 - 2.42). Across all camps, the highest incidence was among children zero-to-five years of age. The sex-specific incidence chickenpox was higher for males than females in Elliniko and Malakasa, while the incidence was higher among females in Raidestos.

CONCLUSION

As expected, individuals five years of age and under made up the majority of chickenpox cases. However, 12% of cases were teenagers or older, highlighting the need to consider atypical age groups in vaccination strategies and control measures. To support both host and displaced populations, it is important to consider risk-reduction needs for both groups. Including host communities in vaccination campaigns and activities can help reduce the population burden of disease for both communities.

Respiratory particle emission rates from children during speaking

The number of respiratory particles emitted during different respiratory activities is one of the main parameters affecting the airborne transmission of respiratory pathogens. Information on respiratory particle emission rates is mostly available for adults (few studies have investigated adolescents and children) and generally involves a limited number of subjects. In the present paper we attempted to reduce this knowledge gap by conducting an extensive experimental campaign to measure the emission of respiratory particles of more than 400 children aged 6 to 12 years while they pronounced a phonetically balanced word list at two different voice intensity levels ("speaking" and "loudly speaking"). Respiratory particle concentrations, particle distributions, and exhaled air flow rates were measured to estimate the respiratory particle emission rate. Sound pressure levels were also simultaneously measured. We found out that median respiratory particle emission rates for speaking and loudly speaking were 26 particles s-1 (range 7.1-93 particles s-1) and 41 particles s-1 (range 10-146 particles s-1), respectively. Children sex was significant for emission rates, with higher emission rates for males during both speaking and loudly speaking. No effect of age on the emission rates was identified. Concerning particle size distributions, for both respiratory activities, a main mode at approximately 0.6 µm and a second minor mode at < 2 µm were observed, and no differences were found between males and females. This information provides important input parameters in predictive models adopted to estimate the transmission risk of airborne pathogens in indoor spaces.

The Influence of Ventilation Measures on the Airborne Risk of Infection in Schools: A Scoping Review

OBJECTIVES

To review the risk of airborne infections in schools and evaluate the effect of intervention measures reported in field studies.

BACKGROUND

Schools are part of a country's critical infrastructure. Good infection prevention measures are essential for reducing the risk of infection in schools as much as possible, since these are places where many individuals spend a great deal of time together every weekday in a small area where airborne pathogens can spread quickly. Appropriate ventilation can reduce the indoor concentration of airborne pathogens and reduce the risk of infection.

METHODS

A systematic search of the literature was conducted in the databases Embase, MEDLINE, and ScienceDirect using keywords such as school, classroom, ventilation, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, SARS-CoV-2, and airborne transmission. The primary endpoint of the studies selected was the risk of airborne infection or CO2 concentration as a surrogate parameter. Studies were grouped according to the study type.

RESULTS

We identified 30 studies that met the inclusion criteria, six of them intervention studies. When specific ventilation strategies were lacking in schools being investigated, CO2 concentrations were often above the recommended maximum values. Improving ventilation lowered the CO2 concentration, resulting in a lower risk of airborne infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The ventilation in many schools is not adequate to guarantee good indoor air quality. Ventilation is an important measure for reducing the risk of airborne infections in schools. The most important effect is to reduce the time of residence of pathogens in the classrooms.

Zonal modeling of air distribution impact on the long-range airborne transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2

A widely used analytical model to quantitatively assess airborne infection risk is the Wells-Riley model which is limited to complete air mixing in a single zone. However, this assumption tends not to be feasible (or reality) for many situations. This study aimed to extend the Wells-Riley model so that the infection risk can be calculated in spaces where complete mixing is not present. Some more advanced ventilation concepts create either two horizontally divided air zones in spaces as displacement ventilation or the space may be divided into two vertical zones by downward plane jet as in protective-zone ventilation systems. This is done by evaluating the time-dependent distribution of infectious quanta in each zone and by solving the coupled system of differential equations based on the zonal quanta concentrations. This model introduces a novel approach by estimating the interzonal mixing factor based on previous experimental data for three types of ventilation systems: incomplete mixing ventilation, displacement ventilation, and protective zone ventilation. The modeling approach is applied to a room with one infected and one susceptible person present. The results show that using the Wells-Riley model based on the assumption of completely air mixing may considerably overestimate or underestimate the long-range airborne infection risk in rooms where air distribution is different than complete mixing, such as displacement ventilation, protected zone ventilation, warm air supplied from the ceiling, etc. Therefore, in spaces with non-uniform air distribution, a zonal modeling approach should be preferred in analytical models compared to the conventional single-zone Wells-Riley models when assessing long-range airborne transmission risk of infectious respiratory diseases.

The airborne contagiousness of respiratory viruses: A comparative analysis and implications for mitigation

The infectious emission rate is a fundamental input parameter for airborne transmission risk assessment, but data are limited due to reliance on estimates from chance superspreading events. This study assesses the strength of a predictive estimation approach developed by the authors for SARS-CoV-2 and uses novel estimates to compare the contagiousness of respiratory pathogens. We applied the approach to SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, MERS, measles virus, adenovirus, rhinovirus, coxsackievirus, seasonal influenza virus and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) and compared quanta emission rate (ERq) estimates to literature values. We calculated infection risk in a prototypical classroom and barracks to assess the relative ability of ventilation to mitigate airborne transmission. Our median standing and speaking ERq estimate for SARS-CoV-2 (2.7 quanta h-1) is similar to active, untreated TB (3.1 quanta h-1), higher than seasonal influenza (0.17 quanta h-1), and lower than measles virus (15 quanta h-1). We calculated event reproduction numbers above 1 for SARS-CoV-2, measles virus, and untreated TB in both the classroom and barracks for an activity level of standing and speaking at low, medium and high ventilation rates of 2.3, 6.6 and 14 L per second per person (L s-1 p-1), respectively. Our predictive ERq estimates are consistent with the range of values reported over decades of research. In congregate settings, current ventilation standards are unlikely to control the spread of viruses with upper quartile ERq values above 10 quanta h-1, such as SARS-CoV-2, indicating the need for additional control measures.

Study on the interaction between different pathogens of Hand, foot and mouth disease in five regions of China

Objectives

This study aims to explore the interaction of different pathogens in Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) by using a mathematical epidemiological model and the reported data in five regions of China.

Methods

A cross-regional dataset of reported HFMD cases was built from four provinces (Fujian Province, Jiangsu province, Hunan Province, and Jilin Province) and one municipality (Chongqing Municipality) in China. The subtypes of the pathogens of HFMD, including Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), enteroviruses A71 (EV-A71), and other enteroviruses (Others), were included in the data. A mathematical model was developed to fit the data. The effective reproduction number (R _eff ) was calculated to quantify the transmissibility of the pathogens.

Results

In total, 3,336,482 HFMD cases were collected in the five regions. In Fujian Province, the R _eff between CV-A16 and EV-A71&CV-A16, and between CV-A16 and CV-A16&Others showed statistically significant differences (P < 0.05). In Jiangsu Province, there was a significant difference in R _eff (P < 0.05) between the CV-A16 and Total. In Hunan Province, the R _eff between CV-A16 and EV-A71&CV-A16, between CV-A16 and Total were significant (P < 0.05). In Chongqing Municipality, we found significant differences of the R _eff (P < 0.05) between CV-A16 and CV-A16&Others, and between Others and CV-A16&Others. In Jilin Province, significant differences of the R _eff (P < 0.05) were found between EV-A71 and Total, and between Others and Total.

Conclusion

The major pathogens of HFMD have changed annually, and the incidence of HFMD caused by others and CV-A16 has surpassed that of EV-A71 in recent years. Cross-regional differences were observed in the interactions between the pathogens.

A population study of the NYS measles epidemic: Lessons learned

OBJECTIVES

In 2019 the United States experienced the largest outbreak of measles in 27 years, 19 years after the United States declared measles eliminated. The purpose of this paper was to present a population study of a measles outbreak within Orthodox Jewish communities in New York that led to the elimination of religious exemption for school mandated vaccines.

METHODS

Peer reviewed articles, news media, health department, and government resources were used to investigate environmental factors that led to this outbreak. State, county, and city immunization records were accessed to explore measles compliance rates before and after policy change.

RESULTS

Rockland County had low compliance rates compared to the rest of the state, and the elimination of religious exemptions raised compliance rate almost to state level. In all but one affected New York City zip codes, compliance following policy change rose to 97.95%-99.15%.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, changes in measles compliance rates reflect policy goals, but localized differences imply a need for more customized interventions for each unique community. Public health planning to promote vaccination should be sensitive to the concerns and perceptions of each community in order for health interventions to have a positive effect.

Modeling the impact of indoor relative humidity on the infection risk of five respiratory airborne viruses

With a modified version of the Wells-Riley model, we simulated the size distribution and dynamics of five airborne viruses (measles, influenza, SARS-CoV-2, human rhinovirus, and adenovirus) emitted from a speaking person in a typical residential setting over a relative humidity (RH) range of 20-80% and air temperature of 20-25 °C. Besides the size transformation of virus-containing droplets due to evaporation, respiratory absorption, and then removal by gravitational settling, the modified model also considered the removal mechanism by ventilation. The trend and magnitude of RH impact depended on the respiratory virus. For rhinovirus and adenovirus humidifying the indoor air from 20/30 to 50% will be increasing the relative infection risk, however, this relative infection risk increase will be negligible for rhinovirus and weak for adenovirus. Humidification will have a potential benefit in decreasing the infection risk only for influenza when there is a large infection risk decrease for humidifying from 20 to 50%. Regardless of the dry solution composition, humidification will overall increase the infection risk via long-range airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Compared to humidification at a constant ventilation rate, increasing the ventilation rate to moderate levels 0.5 → 2.0 h^-1 will have a more beneficial infection risk decrease for all viruses except for influenza. Increasing the ventilation rate from low values of 0.5 h^-1 to higher levels of 6 h^-1 will have a dominating effect on reducing the infection risk regardless of virus type.

A coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Wells-Riley model to predict COVID-19 infection probability for passengers on long-distance trains

Coupled Wells-Riley (WR) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling (WR-CFD) facilitates a detailed analysis of COVID-19 infection probability (IP). This approach overcomes issues associated with the WR 'well-mixed' assumption. The WR-CFD model, which makes uses of a scalar approach to simulate quanta dispersal, is applied to Chinese long-distance trains (G-train). Predicted IPs, at multiple locations, are validated using statistically derived (SD) IPs from reported infections on G-trains. This is the first known attempt to validate a coupled WR-CFD approach using reported COVID-19 infections derived from the rail environment. There is reasonable agreement between trends in predicted and SD IPs, with the maximum SD IP being 10.3% while maximum predicted IP was 14.8%. Additionally, predicted locations of highest and lowest IP, agree with those identified in the statistical analysis. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that the distribution of infectious aerosols is non-uniform and dependent on the nature of the ventilation. This suggests that modelling techniques neglecting these differences are inappropriate for assessing mitigation measures such as physical distancing. A range of mitigation strategies were analysed; the most effective being the majority (90%) of passengers correctly wearing high efficiency masks (e.g. N95). Compared to the base case (40% of passengers wearing low efficiency masks) there was a 95% reduction in average IP. Surprisingly, HEPA filtration was only effective for passengers distant from an index patient, having almost no effect for those in close proximity. Finally, as the approach is based on CFD it can be applied to a range of other indoor environments.

Asymptomatic and Symptomatic COVID-19 Infections Among Health Care Personnel Before and After Vaccination

This cohort study investigates asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 case rates before and after the initial vaccine rollout among health care personnel in Orange County, California.

Vaccination coverage estimates and utilization patterns of inactivated enterovirus 71 vaccine post vaccine introduction in Ningbo, China

Background

In China, enterovirus 71 (EV71) is the major etiological agents of hand foot mouth disease that poses severe risks to children’s health. Since 2015, three inactivated EV71 vaccines have been approved for use. Previous studies indicated the high willingness of EV71 vaccination in eastern China. However, few studies have assessed coverage and utilization patterns of EV71 vaccine in China.

Methods

Children born during 2012–2018 were sampled and their records were abstracted from Ningbo childhood immunization information management system. Descriptive statistics characterized the study population and assessed coverage and timeliness for EV71 vaccination. Simultaneous administration patterns as well as type of EV71 vaccine used were also evaluated. Bivariate and multivariable analysis was used to examine the relationship of socio-demographic characteristics with vaccination coverage and timeliness.

Results

Of 716,178 children living in Ningbo. One hundred seventy-two thousand two hundred thirty-six received EV71 vaccine with a coverage rate of 24.05% and only 8.61% received vaccination timely. 21.97% of children received the complete two dose EV71 series but only 6.49% completed timely. Vaccination coverage and timeliness increased significantly from 2012 birth cohort to 2018 birth cohort. Relatively higher coverage and timeliness were observed in resident children, Inner districts, high socioeconomic areas and large-scaled immunization clinics. Of 329,569 doses of EV71 vaccine, only 5853(1.78%) doses were administered at the same day as other vaccines.

Conclusions

There is a need for increasing EV71 vaccination coverage and timeliness as well as eliminating disparities among different populations. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneous administration to increasing coverage and timeliness of EV71 vaccination.

Correction to: Estimating the nationwide transmission risk of measles in US schools and impacts of vaccination and supplemental infection control strategies

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.