Improving random forest predictions in small datasets from two-phase sampling designs

Machine-learning-based cost prediction models for inpatients with mental disorders in China

BACKGROUND

Mental disorders are increasingly prevalent, leading to increased medical expenditures. To refine the reimbursement of medical costs for inpatients with mental disorders by health insurance, an accurate prediction model is essential. Per-diem payment is a common internationally implemented payment method for medical insurance of inpatients with mental disorders, necessitating the exploration of advanced machine learning methods for predicting the average daily hospitalization costs (ADHC) based on the characteristics of inpatients with mental disorders.

METHODS

We used data including demographic information, clinical/functional characteristics, institutional features, and cost information of 5070 hospitalized patients with mental disorders in Jinhua, China, and employed six algorithms to predict ADHC. Performance of these six algorithms was evaluated through 5- old cross-validation combined with bootstrap method to select the most suitable algorithm and identify key factors influencing ADHC.

RESULTS

The random forest (RF) model demonstrated better performance (R-squared (R2) = 0.6417 (95% CI, 0.6236-0.6611), root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 0.2398 (95% CI, 0.2252-0.2553), mean-absolute error (MAE) = 0.1677 (95% CI, 0.1626-0.1735), mean-absolute-percentage error (MAPE) = 0.0295 (95% CI, 0.0287-0.0304)). According to feature importance ranking, models incorporating top 11 factors (> 0.01) demonstrated comparable performance to those encompassing all variables. Top four factors (> 0.05) were level of medical institution, age, functional classification, and cognitive classification. Notably, level of medical institutions was the most significant factor across all primary models. Higher medical institutions level, patients below 20 and above 75 years old, lower functional classification, and lower cognitive classification are associated with increased ADHC.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning algorithms, particularly RF algorithm, enhance accuracy of predicting ADHC for mental health patients. The findings of this study provide evidence for setting up more reasonable insurance payment standards for inpatients with mental disorders and support resource allocation in clinical practice.

The biomedical applications of artificial intelligence: an overview of decades of research

A significant area of computer science called artificial intelligence (AI) is successfully applied to the analysis of intricate biological data and the extraction of substantial associations from datasets for a variety of biomedical uses. AI has attracted significant interest in biomedical research due to its features: (i) better patient care through early diagnosis and detection; (ii) enhanced workflow; (iii) lowering medical errors; (v) lowering medical costs; (vi) reducing morbidity and mortality; (vii) enhancing performance; (viii) enhancing precision; and (ix) time efficiency. Quantitative metrics are crucial for evaluating AI implementations, providing insights, enabling informed decisions, and measuring the impact of AI-driven initiatives, thereby enhancing transparency, accountability, and overall impact. The implementation of AI in biomedical fields faces challenges such as ethical and privacy concerns, lack of awareness, technology unreliability, and professional liability. A brief discussion is given of the AI techniques, which include Virtual screening (VS), DL, ML, Hidden Markov models (HMMs), Neural networks (NNs), Generative models (GMs), Molecular dynamics (MD), and Structure-activity relationship (SAR) models. The study explores the application of AI in biomedical fields, highlighting its enhanced predictive accuracy, treatment efficacy, diagnostic efficiency, faster decision-making, personalised treatment strategies, and precise medical interventions.

Navigating predictions at nanoscale: a comprehensive study of regression models in magnetic nanoparticle synthesis

The applicability of magnetic nanoparticles (MNP) highly depends on their physical properties, especially their size. Synthesizing MNP with a specific size is challenging due to the large number of interdepend parameters during the synthesis that control their properties. In general, synthesis control cannot be described by white box approaches (empirical, simulation or physics based). To handle synthesis control, this study presents machine learning based approaches for predicting the size of MNP during their synthesis. A dataset comprising 17 synthesis parameters and the corresponding MNP sizes were analyzed. Eight regression algorithms (ridge, lasso, elastic net, decision trees, random forest, gradient boosting, support vectors and multilayer perceptron) were evaluated. The model performance was assessed via root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and standard deviation of residuals. Support vector regression (SVR) exhibited the lowest RMSE values of 3.44 and a standard deviation for the residuals of 5.13. SVR demonstrated a favorable balance between accuracy and consistency among these methods. Qualitative factors like adaptability to online learning and robustness against outliers were additionally considered. Altogether, SVR emerged as the most suitable approach to predict MNP sizes due to its ability to continuously learn from new data and resilience to noise, making it well-suited for real-time applications with varying data quality. In this way, a feasible optimization framework for automated and self-regulated MNP synthesis was implemented. Key challenges included the limited dataset size, potential violations of modeling assumptions, and sensitivity to hyperparameters. Strategies like data regularization, correlation analysis, and grid search for model hyperparameters were employed to mitigate these issues.

Vaccine Strategies Against RNA Viruses: Current Advances and Future Directions

The development of vaccines against RNA viruses has undergone a rapid evolution in recent years, particularly driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. This review examines the key roles that RNA viruses, with their high mutation rates and zoonotic potential, play in fostering vaccine innovation. We also discuss both traditional and modern vaccine platforms and the impact of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, on optimizing immunization strategies. This review evaluates various vaccine platforms, ranging from traditional approaches (inactivated and live-attenuated vaccines) to modern technologies (subunit vaccines, viral and bacterial vectors, nucleic acid vaccines such as mRNA and DNA, and phage-like particle vaccines). To illustrate these platforms' practical applications, we present case studies of vaccines developed for RNA viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, influenza, Zika, and dengue. Additionally, we assess the role of artificial intelligence in predicting viral mutations and enhancing vaccine design. The case studies underscore the successful application of RNA-based vaccines, particularly in the fight against COVID-19, which has saved millions of lives. Current clinical trials for influenza, Zika, and dengue vaccines continue to show promise, highlighting the growing efficacy and adaptability of these platforms. Furthermore, artificial intelligence is driving improvements in vaccine candidate optimization and providing predictive models for viral evolution, enhancing our ability to respond to future outbreaks. Advances in vaccine technology, such as the success of mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, highlight the potential of nucleic acid platforms in combating RNA viruses. Ongoing trials for influenza, Zika, and dengue demonstrate platform adaptability, while artificial intelligence enhances vaccine design by predicting viral mutations. Integrating these innovations with the One Health approach, which unites human, animal, and environmental health, is essential for strengthening global preparedness against future RNA virus threats.

Gut metatranscriptomics based de novo assembly reveals microbial signatures predicting immunotherapy outcomes in non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Advanced-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) poses treatment challenges, with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) as the main therapy. Emerging evidence suggests the gut microbiome significantly influences ICI efficacy. This study explores the link between the gut microbiome and ICI outcomes in NSCLC patients, using metatranscriptomic (MTR) signatures.

METHODS

We utilized a de novo assembly-based MTR analysis on fecal samples from 29 NSCLC patients undergoing ICI therapy, segmented according to progression-free survival (PFS) into long (> 6 months) and short (≤ 6 months) PFS groups. Through RNA sequencing, we employed the Trinity pipeline for assembly, MMSeqs2 for taxonomic classification, DESeq2 for differential expression (DE) analysis. We constructed Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning (ML) algorithms and comprehensive microbial profiles.

RESULTS

We detected no significant differences concerning alpha-diversity, but we revealed a biologically relevant separation between the two patient groups in beta-diversity. Actinomycetota was significantly overrepresented in patients with short PFS (vs long PFS, 36.7% vs. 5.4%, p < 0.001), as was Euryarchaeota (1.3% vs. 0.002%, p = 0.009), while Bacillota showed higher prevalence in the long PFS group (66.2% vs. 42.3%, p = 0.007), when comparing the abundance of corresponding RNA reads. Among the 120 significant DEGs identified, cluster analysis clearly separated a large set of genes more active in patients with short PFS and a smaller set of genes more active in long PFS patients. Protein Domain Families (PFAMs) were analyzed to identify pathways enriched in patient groups. Pathways related to DNA synthesis and Translesion were more enriched in short PFS patients, while metabolism-related pathways were more enriched in long PFS patients. E. coli-derived PFAMs dominated in patients with long PFS. RF, SVM and XGBoost ML models all confirmed the predictive power of our selected RNA-based microbial signature, with ROC AUCs all greater than 0.84. Multivariate Cox regression tested with clinical confounders PD-L1 expression and chemotherapy history underscored the influence of n = 6 key RNA biomarkers on PFS.

CONCLUSION

According to ML models specific gut microbiome MTR signatures' associate with ICI treated NSCLC outcomes. Specific gene clusters and taxa MTR gene expression might differentiate long vs short PFS.

Multi-output neural network model for predicting biochar yield and composition

In biomass pyrolysis for biochar production, existing prediction models face computational challenges and limited accuracy. This study curated a comprehensive dataset, revealing pyrolysis parameters' dominance in biochar yield (54.8 % importance). Pyrolysis temperature emerged as pivotal (PCC = -0.75), influencing yield significantly. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) outperformed Random Forest (RF) in testing set predictions (R2 = 0.95, RMSE = 3.6), making it apt for complex multi-output predictions and software development. The trained ANN model, employed in Partial Dependence Analysis, uncovered nonlinear relationships between biomass characteristics and biochar yield. Findings indicated optimization opportunities, correlating low pyrolysis temperatures, elevated nitrogen content, high fixed carbon, and brief residence times with increased biochar yields. A multi-output ANN model demonstrated optimal fit for biochar yield. A user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI) for biochar synthesis prediction was developed, exhibiting robust performance with a mere 0.52 % prediction error for biochar yield. This study showcases practical machine learning application in biochar synthesis, offering valuable insights and predictive tools for optimizing biochar production processes.

Role of Inflammatory Markers and Doppler Parameters in Late-Onset Fetal Growth Restriction: A Machine-Learning Approach

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluates the association of novel inflammatory markers and Doppler parameters in late-onset FGR (fetal growth restriction), utilizing a machine-learning approach to enhance predictive accuracy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective case-control study was conducted at the Department of Perinatology, Ministry of Health Etlik City Hospital, Ankara, from 2023 to 2024. The study included 240 patients between 32 and 37 weeks of gestation, divided equally between patients diagnosed with late-onset FGR and a control group. We focused on novel inflammatory markers-systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), and neutrophil-percentage-to-albumin ratio (NPAR)-and their correlation with Doppler parameters of umbilical and uterine arteries. Machine-learning algorithms were employed to analyze the data collected, including demographic, neonatal, and clinical parameters, to develop a predictive model for FGR.

RESULTS

The machine-learning model, specifically the Random Forest algorithm, effectively integrated the inflammatory markers with Doppler parameters to predict FGR. NPAR showed a significant correlation with FGR presence, providing a robust tool in the predictive model (Accuracy 77%, area under the curve [AUC] 0.851). In contrast, SII and SIRI, while useful, did not achieve the same level of predictive accuracy (Accuracy 75% AUC 0.818 and Accuracy 73% AUC 0.793, respectively). The model highlighted the potential of combining ultrasound measurements with inflammatory markers to improve diagnostic accuracy for late-onset FGR.

CONCLUSIONS

This study illustrates the efficacy of integrating machines with traditional diagnostic methods to enhance the prediction of late-onset FGR. Further research with a larger cohort is recommended to validate these findings and refine the predictive model, which could lead to improved clinical outcomes for affected pregnancies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT06372938.

Leveraging artificial intelligence in vaccine development: A narrative review

Vaccine development stands as a cornerstone of public health efforts, pivotal in curbing infectious diseases and reducing global morbidity and mortality. However, traditional vaccine development methods are often time-consuming, costly, and inefficient. The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) has ushered in a new era in vaccine design, offering unprecedented opportunities to expedite the process. This narrative review explores the role of AI in vaccine development, focusing on antigen selection, epitope prediction, adjuvant identification, and optimization strategies. AI algorithms, including machine learning and deep learning, leverage genomic data, protein structures, and immune system interactions to predict antigenic epitopes, assess immunogenicity, and prioritize antigens for experimentation. Furthermore, AI-driven approaches facilitate the rational design of immunogens and the identification of novel adjuvant candidates with optimal safety and efficacy profiles. Challenges such as data heterogeneity, model interpretability, and regulatory considerations must be addressed to realize the full potential of AI in vaccine development. Integrating emerging technologies, such as single-cell omics and synthetic biology, promises to enhance vaccine design precision and scalability. This review underscores the transformative impact of AI on vaccine development and highlights the need for interdisciplinary collaborations and regulatory harmonization to accelerate the delivery of safe and effective vaccines against infectious diseases.

AI algorithm combined with RNA editing-based blood biomarkers to discriminate bipolar from major depressive disorders in an external validation multicentric cohort

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a leading cause of disability worldwide, as it can lead to cognitive and functional impairment and premature mortality. The first episode of BD is usually a depressive episode and is often misdiagnosed as major depressive disorder (MDD). Growing evidence indicates that peripheral immune activation and inflammation are involved in the pathophysiology of BD and MDD. Recently, by developing a panel of RNA editing-based blood biomarkers able to discriminate MDD from depressive BD, we have provided clinicians a new tool to reduce the misdiagnosis delay observed in patients suffering from BD. The present study aimed at validating the diagnostic value of this panel in an external independent multicentric Switzerland-based cohort of 143 patients suffering from moderate to major depression. The RNA-editing based blood biomarker (BMK) algorithm developped allowed to accurately discriminate MDD from depressive BD in an external cohort, with high accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values (82.5 %, 86.4 % and 80.8 %, respectively). These findings further confirm the important role of RNA editing in the physiopathology of mental disorders and emphasize the possible clinical usefulness of the biomarker panel for optimization treatment delay in patients suffering from BD.

Tackling the small data problem in medical image classification with artificial intelligence: a systematic review

Though medical imaging has seen a growing interest in AI research, training models require a large amount of data. In this domain, there are limited sets of data available as collecting new data is either not feasible or requires burdensome resources. Researchers are facing with the problem of small datasets and have to apply tricks to fight overfitting. 147 peer-reviewed articles were retrieved from PubMed, published in English, up until 31 July 2022 and articles were assessed by two independent reviewers. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyse (PRISMA) guidelines for the paper selection and 77 studies were regarded as eligible for the scope of this review. Adherence to reporting standards was assessed by using TRIPOD statement (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis). To solve the small data issue transfer learning technique, basic data augmentation and generative adversarial network were applied in 75%, 69% and 14% of cases, respectively. More than 60% of the authors performed a binary classification given the data scarcity and the difficulty of the tasks. Concerning generalizability, only four studies explicitly stated an external validation of the developed model was carried out. Full access to all datasets and code was severely limited (unavailable in more than 80% of studies). Adherence to reporting standards was suboptimal (<50% adherence for 13 of 37 TRIPOD items). The goal of this review is to provide a comprehensive survey of recent advancements in dealing with small medical images samples size. Transparency and improve quality in publications as well as follow existing reporting standards are also supported.

Which client with generalized anxiety disorder benefits from a mindfulness ecological momentary intervention versus a self-monitoring app? Developing a multivariable machine learning predictive model

Precision medicine methods (machine learning; ML) can identify which clients with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) benefit from mindfulness ecological momentary intervention (MEMI) vs. self-monitoring app (SM). We used randomized controlled trial data of MEMI vs. SM for GAD (N = 110) and tested three ML models to predict one-month follow-up reliable improvement in GAD severity, perseverative cognitions (PC), trait mindfulness (TM), and executive function (EF). Eleven baseline predictors were tested regarding differential reliable change from MEMI vs. SM (age, sex, race, EF errors, inhibitory dyscontrol, set-shifting deficits, verbal fluency, working memory, GAD severity, TM, PC). The final top five prescriptive predictor models of all outcomes performed well (AUC = .752 .886). The following variables predicted better outcome from MEMI vs. SM: Higher GAD severity predicted more GAD improvement but less EF improvement. Elevated PC, inhibitory dyscontrol, and verbal dysfluency predicted better improvement in most outcomes. Greater set-shifting and TM predicted stronger improvements in GAD symptoms and TM. Older age predicted more alleviation of GAD and PC symptoms. Women exhibited more enhancements in trait mindfulness and EF than men. White individuals benefitted more than non-White. PC, TM, EF, and sociodemographic data might help predictive models optimize intervention selection for GAD.

Prognostic Factors for Mortality in Hepatocellular Carcinoma at Diagnosis: Development of a Predictive Model Using Artificial Intelligence

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for 75% of primary liver tumors. Controlling risk factors associated with its development and implementing screenings in risk populations does not seem sufficient to improve the prognosis of these patients at diagnosis. The development of a predictive prognostic model for mortality at the diagnosis of HCC is proposed.

METHODS

In this retrospective multicenter study, the analysis of data from 191 HCC patients was conducted using machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze the prognostic factors of mortality that are significant at the time of diagnosis. Clinical and analytical data of interest in patients with HCC were gathered.

RESULTS

Meeting Milan criteria, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification and albumin levels were the variables with the greatest impact on the prognosis of HCC patients. The ML algorithm that achieved the best results was random forest (RF).

CONCLUSIONS

The development of a predictive prognostic model at the diagnosis is a valuable tool for patients with HCC and for application in clinical practice. RF is useful and reliable in the analysis of prognostic factors in the diagnosis of HCC. The search for new prognostic factors is still necessary in patients with HCC.

Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: How Machine Learning Can Help Distinguish between Infections and Flares

Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is a multifaceted autoimmune ailment that impacts multiple bodily systems and manifests with varied clinical manifestations. Early detection is considered the most effective way to save patients' lives, but detecting severe SLE activity in its early stages is proving to be a formidable challenge. Consequently, this work advocates the use of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for the diagnosis of SLE flares in the context of infections. In the pursuit of this research, the Random Forest (RF) method has been employed due to its performance attributes. With RF, our objective is to uncover patterns within the patient data. Multiple ML techniques have been scrutinized within this investigation. The proposed system exhibited around a 7.49% enhancement in accuracy when compared to k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm. In contrast, the Support Vector Machine (SVM), Binary Linear Discriminant Analysis (BLDA), Decision Trees (DT) and Linear Regression (LR) methods demonstrated inferior performance, with respective values around 81%, 78%, 84% and 69%. It is noteworthy that the proposed method displayed a superior area under the curve (AUC) and balanced accuracy (both around 94%) in comparison to other ML approaches. These outcomes underscore the feasibility of crafting an automated diagnostic support method for SLE patients grounded in ML systems.

Machine Learning Based Linking of Patient Reported Outcome Measures to WHO International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health Activity/Participation Categories

BACKGROUND

In the primary and secondary medical health sector, patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are widely used to assess a patient's disease-related functional health state. However, the World Health Organization (WHO), in its recently adopted resolution on "strengthening rehabilitation in all health systems", encourages that all health sectors, not only the rehabilitation sector, classify a patient's functioning and health state according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF).

AIM

This research sought to optimize machine learning (ML) methods that fully and automatically link information collected from PROMs in persons with unspecific chronic low back pain (cLBP) to limitations in activities and restrictions in participation that are listed in the WHO core set categories for LBP. The study also aimed to identify the minimal set of PROMs necessary for linking without compromising performance.

METHODS

A total of 806 patients with cLBP completed a comprehensive set of validated PROMs and were interviewed by clinical psychologists who assessed patients' performance in activity limitations and restrictions in participation according to the ICF brief core set for low back pain (LBP). The information collected was then utilized to further develop random forest (RF) methods that classified the presence or absence of a problem within each of the activity participation ICF categories of the ICF core set for LBP. Further analyses identified those PROM items relevant to the linking process and validated the respective linking performance that utilized a minimal subset of items.

RESULTS

Compared to a recently developed ML linking method, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) values for the novel RF methods showed overall improved performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.73 for the ICF category d850 to 0.81 for the ICF category d540. Variable importance measurements revealed that minimal subsets of either 24 or 15 important PROM variables (out of 80 items included in full set of PROMs) would show similar linking performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that our optimized ML based methods more accurately predict the presence or absence of limitations and restrictions listed in ICF core categories for cLBP. In addition, this accurate performance would not suffer if the list of PROM items was reduced to a minimum of 15 out of 80 items assessed.

Machine learning in rare disease

High-throughput profiling methods (such as genomics or imaging) have accelerated basic research and made deep molecular characterization of patient samples routine. These approaches provide a rich portrait of genes, molecular pathways and cell types involved in disease phenotypes. Machine learning (ML) can be a useful tool for extracting disease-relevant patterns from high-dimensional datasets. However, depending upon the complexity of the biological question, machine learning often requires many samples to identify recurrent and biologically meaningful patterns. Rare diseases are inherently limited in clinical cases, leading to few samples to study. In this Perspective, we outline the challenges and emerging solutions for using ML for small sample sets, specifically in rare diseases. Advances in ML methods for rare diseases are likely to be informative for applications beyond rare diseases for which few samples exist with high-dimensional data. We propose that the method community prioritize the development of ML techniques for rare disease research.

Validation of a targeted metabolomics panel for improved second-tier newborn screening

Improved second-tier assays are needed to reduce the number of false positives in newborn screening (NBS) for inherited metabolic disorders including those on the Recommended Uniform Screening Panel (RUSP). We developed an expanded metabolite panel for second-tier testing of dried blood spot (DBS) samples from screen-positive cases reported by the California NBS program, consisting of true- and false-positives from four disorders: glutaric acidemia type I (GA1), methylmalonic acidemia (MMA), ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency (OTCD), and very long-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency (VLCADD). This panel was assembled from known disease markers and new features discovered by untargeted metabolomics and applied to second-tier analysis of single DBS punches using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in a 3-min run. Additionally, we trained a Random Forest (RF) machine learning classifier to improve separation of true- and false positive cases. Targeted metabolomic analysis of 121 analytes from DBS extracts in combination with RF classification at a sensitivity of 100% reduced false positives for GA1 by 83%, MMA by 84%, OTCD by 100%, and VLCADD by 51%. This performance was driven by a combination of known disease markers (3-hydroxyglutaric acid, methylmalonic acid, citrulline, and C14:1), other amino acids and acylcarnitines, and novel metabolites identified to be isobaric to several long-chain acylcarnitine and hydroxy-acylcarnitine species. These findings establish the effectiveness of this second-tier test to improve screening for these four conditions and demonstrate the utility of supervised machine learning in reducing false-positives for conditions lacking clearly discriminating markers, with future studies aimed at optimizing and expanding the panel to additional disease targets.

Ethnicity influences phenotype and clinical outcomes: Comparing a South American with a North American inflammatory bowel disease cohort

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), including ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn disease (CD), has emerged as a global disease with an increasing incidence in developing and newly industrialized regions such as South America. This global rise offers the opportunity to explore the differences and similarities in disease presentation and outcomes across different genetic backgrounds and geographic locations. Our study includes 265 IBD patients. We performed an exploratory analysis of the databases of Chilean and North American IBD patients to compare the clinical phenotypes between the cohorts. We employed an unsupervised machine-learning approach using principal component analysis, uniform manifold approximation, and projection, among others, for each disease. Finally, we predicted the cohort (North American vs Chilean) using a random forest. Several unsupervised machine learning methods have separated the 2 main groups, supporting the differences between North American and Chilean patients with each disease. The variables that explained the loadings of the clinical metadata on the principal components were related to the therapies and disease extension/location at diagnosis. Our random forest models were trained for cohort classification based on clinical characteristics, obtaining high accuracy (0.86 = UC; 0.79 = CD). Similarly, variables related to therapy and disease extension/location had a high Gini index. Similarly, univariate analysis showed a later CD age at diagnosis in Chilean IBD patients (37 vs 24; P = .005). Our study suggests a clinical difference between North American and Chilean IBD patients: later CD age at diagnosis with a predominantly less aggressive phenotype (39% vs 54% B1) and more limited disease, despite fewer biological therapies being used in Chile for both diseases.

Immuno-genomic profiling of biopsy specimens predicts neoadjuvant chemotherapy response in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is one of the most aggressive cancers and is primarily treated with platinum-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). Some ESCCs respond well to NAC. However, biomarkers to predict NAC sensitivity and their response mechanism in ESCC remain unclear. We perform whole-genome sequencing and RNA sequencing analysis of 141 ESCC biopsy specimens before NAC treatment to generate a machine-learning-based diagnostic model to predict NAC reactivity in ESCC and analyzed the association between immunogenomic features and NAC response. Neutrophil infiltration may play an important role in ESCC response to NAC. We also demonstrate that specific copy-number alterations and copy-number signatures in the ESCC genome are significantly associated with NAC response. The interactions between the tumor genome and immune features of ESCC are likely to be a good indicator of therapeutic capability and a therapeutic target for ESCC, and machine learning prediction for NAC response is useful.

Risk Factors and Prediction Models for Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Based on Random Forest

Objective

To establish a risk prediction model of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and provide management strategies for preventing this disease.

Methods

A total of 200 inpatients and physical examinees were collected from the Department of Gastroenterology and Endocrinology and Physical Examination Center. The data of physical examination, laboratory examination, and abdominal ultrasound examination were collected. All subjects were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a verification set (30%). A random forest (RF) prediction model is constructed to predict the occurrence risk of NAFLD. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is used to verify the prediction effect of the prediction models.

Results

The number of NAFLD patients was 44 out of 200 enrolled patients, and the cumulative incidence rate was 22%. The prediction models showed that BMI, TG, HDL-C, LDL-C, ALT, SUA, and MTTP mutations were independent influencing factors of NAFLD, all of which has statistical significance (P < 0.05). The area under curve (AUC) of logistic regression and the RF model was 0.940 (95% CI: 0.870~0.987) and 0.945 (95% CI: 0.899~0.994), respectively.

Conclusion

This study established a prediction model of NAFLD occurrence risk based on the RF, which has a good prediction value.