4
|
Barker AR, Joynt Maddox KE, Peters E, Huang K, Politi MC. Predicting Future Utilization Using Self-Reported Health and Health Conditions in a Longitudinal Cohort Study: Implications for Health Insurance Decision Support. INQUIRY: THE JOURNAL OF HEALTH CARE ORGANIZATION, PROVISION, AND FINANCING 2021; 58:469580211064118. [PMID: 34919462 PMCID: PMC8695746 DOI: 10.1177/00469580211064118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Decision support techniques and online algorithms aim to help individuals predict costs
and facilitate their choice of health insurance coverage. Self-reported health status
(SHS), whereby patients rate their own health, could improve cost-prediction estimates
without requiring individuals to share personal health information or know about
undiagnosed conditions. We compared the predictive accuracy of several models: (1) SHS
only, (2) a “basic” model adding health-related variables, and (3) a “full” model adding
measures of healthcare access. The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was used to predict
2015 health expenditures from 2014 data. Relative performance was assessed by comparing
adjusted-R2 values and by reporting the predictive accuracy of the models for
a new cohort (2015–2016 data). In the SHS-only model, those with better SHS were less
likely to incur expenditures. However, after accounting for health variables, those with
better SHS were more likely to incur expenses. In the full model, SHS was no longer
predictive of incurring expenses. Variables indicating better access to care were
associated with higher likelihood of spending and higher spending. The full model
(R2 = 0.290) performed slightly better than the basic model
(R2 = 0.240), but neither performed well at the upper tail
of the cost distribution. While our SHS-based models perform well in the aggregate,
predicting population-level risk well, they are not sufficiently accurate to guide
individuals’ insurance shopping decisions in all cases. Policies that rely heavily on
health insurance consumers making individually optimal choices cannot assume that decision
tools can accurately anticipate high costs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Abigail R. Barker
- Brown School, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
- Center for Health Economics and Policy, Institute for Public Health, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Karen E. Joynt Maddox
- Center for Health Economics and Policy, Institute for Public Health, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
- Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Ellen Peters
- Center for Science Communication Research, School of Journalism and Communication, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA
| | - Kristine Huang
- Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Mary C. Politi
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Tipirneni R, Politi MC, Kullgren JT, Kieffer EC, Goold SD, Scherer AM. Association Between Health Insurance Literacy and Avoidance of Health Care Services Owing to Cost. JAMA Netw Open 2018; 1:e184796. [PMID: 30646372 PMCID: PMC6324372 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.4796] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Navigating health insurance and health care choices requires considerable health insurance literacy. Although recommended preventive services are exempt from out-of-pocket costs under the Affordable Care Act, many people may remain unaware of this provision and its effect on their required payment. Little is known about the association between individuals' health insurance literacy and their use of preventive or nonpreventive health care services. OBJECTIVE To assess the association between health insurance literacy and self-reported avoidance of health care services owing to cost. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In this survey study, a US national, geographically diverse, nonprobability sample of 506 US residents aged 18 years or older with current health insurance coverage was recruited to participate in an online survey between February 22 and 23, 2016. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The validated 21-item Health Insurance Literacy Measure (HILM) assessed individuals' self-rated confidence in selecting and using health insurance (score range, 0-84, with higher scores indicating greater levels of health insurance literacy). Dependent variables included delayed or foregone preventive and nonpreventive services in the past 12 months owing to perceived costs, and preventive and nonpreventive use of services. Covariates included age, sex, race/ethnicity, income, educational level, high-deductible health insurance plan, health literacy, numeracy, and chronic health conditions. Analyses included descriptive statistics and bivariate and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS A total of 506 of 511 participants who began the survey completed it (participation rate, 99.0%). Of the 506 participants, 339 (67.0%) were younger than 35 years (mean [SD] age, 34 [10.4] years), 228 (45.1%) were women, 406 of 504 who reported race (80.6%) were white, and 245 (48.4%) attended college for 4 or more years. A total of 228 participants (45.1%) had 1 or more chronic health condition, 361 of 500 (72.2%) who responded to the survey item had seen a physician in the outpatient setting in the past 12 months, and 446 of the 501 (89.0%) who responded to the survey item had their health insurance plan for 12 or more months. One hundred fifty respondents (29.6%) reported having delayed or foregone care because of cost. The mean (SD) HILM score was 63.5 (12.3). In multivariable logistic regression, each 12-point increase in HILM score was associated with a lower likelihood of both delayed or foregone preventive care (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.61; 95% CI, 0.48-0.78) and delayed or foregone nonpreventive care (aOR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55-0.91). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study's findings suggest that lower health insurance literacy may be associated with greater avoidance of both preventive and nonpreventive services. It appears that to improve appropriate use of recommended health care services, including preventive health services, clinicians, health plans, and policymakers may need to communicate health insurance concepts in accessible ways regardless of individuals' health insurance literacy. Plain language communication may be able to improve patients' understanding of services exempt from out-of-pocket costs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Renuka Tipirneni
- Institute for Healthcare Policy & Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
- Division of General Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
| | - Mary C. Politi
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine in St Louis, St Louis, Missouri
| | - Jeffrey T. Kullgren
- Institute for Healthcare Policy & Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
- Division of General Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
- Veterans Affairs Center for Clinical Management Research, Veterans Affairs Ann Arbor Healthcare System, Ann Arbor, Michigan
- Center for Bioethics and Social Sciences in Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
| | - Edith C. Kieffer
- Institute for Healthcare Policy & Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
- School of Social Work, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
| | - Susan D. Goold
- Institute for Healthcare Policy & Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
- Division of General Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
- Center for Bioethics and Social Sciences in Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
- Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
| | - Aaron M. Scherer
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Politi MC, Shacham E, Barker AR, George N, Mir N, Philpott S, Liu JE, Peters E. A Comparison Between Subjective and Objective Methods of Predicting Health Care Expenses to Support Consumers' Health Insurance Plan Choice. MDM Policy Pract 2018; 3:2381468318781093. [PMID: 30288450 PMCID: PMC6124924 DOI: 10.1177/2381468318781093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2017] [Accepted: 05/14/2018] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective. Numerous electronic tools help consumers select health insurance plans based on their estimated health care utilization. However, the best way to personalize these tools is unknown. The purpose of this study was to compare two common methods of personalizing health insurance plan displays: 1) quantitative healthcare utilization predictions using nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data and 2) subjective-health status predictions. We also explored their relations to self-reported health care utilization. Methods. Secondary data analysis was conducted with responses from 327 adults under age 65 considering health insurance enrollment in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Participants were asked to report their subjective health, health conditions, and demographic information. MEPS data were used to estimate predicted annual expenditures based on age, gender, and reported health conditions. Self-reported health care utilization was obtained for 120 participants at a 1-year follow-up. Results. MEPS-based predictions and subjective-health status were related (P < 0.0001). However, MEPS-predicted ranges within subjective-health categories were large. Subjective health was a less reliable predictor of expenses among older adults (age × subjective health, P = 0.04). Neither significantly related to subsequent self-reported health care utilization (P = 0.18, P = 0.92, respectively). Conclusions. Because MEPS data are nationally representative, they may approximate utilization better than subjective health, particularly among older adults. However, approximating health care utilization is difficult, especially among newly insured. Findings have implications for health insurance decision support tools that personalize plan displays based on cost estimates.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mary C Politi
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Enbal Shacham
- College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Abigail R Barker
- Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Nerissa George
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Nageen Mir
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Sydney Philpott
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Jingxia Esther Liu
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Ellen Peters
- Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Politi MC, Kuzemchak MD, Liu J, Barker AR, Peters E, Ubel PA, Kaphingst KA, McBride T, Kreuter MW, Shacham E, Philpott SE. Show Me My Health Plans: Using a Decision Aid to Improve Decisions in the Federal Health Insurance Marketplace. MDM Policy Pract 2016; 1. [PMID: 28804780 PMCID: PMC5550739 DOI: 10.1177/2381468316679998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction: Since the Affordable Care Act was passed, more than 12
million individuals have enrolled in the health insurance marketplace. Without
support, many struggle to make an informed plan choice that meets their health
and financial needs. Methods: We designed and evaluated a decision
aid, Show Me My Health Plans (SMHP), that provides education, preference
assessment, and an annual out-of-pocket cost calculator with plan
recommendations produced by a tailored, risk-adjusted algorithm incorporating
age, gender, and health status. We evaluated whether SMHP compared to HealthCare.gov improved health insurance decision quality and
the match between plan choice, needs, and preferences among 328 Missourians
enrolling in the marketplace. Results: Participants who used SMHP
had higher health insurance knowledge (LS-Mean = 78 vs. 62; P < 0.001),
decision self-efficacy (LS-Mean = 83 vs. 75; P < 0.002), confidence in their
choice (LS-Mean = 3.5 vs. 2.9; P < 0.001), and improved health insurance
literacy (odds ratio = 2.52, P < 0.001) compared to participants using
HealthCare.gov. Those using SMHP were 10.3 times more likely to
select a silver- or gold-tier plan (P < 0.0001). Discussion:
SMHP can improve health insurance decision quality and the odds that consumers
select an insurance plan with coverage likely needed to meet their health needs.
This study represents a unique context through which to apply principles of
decision support to improve health insurance choices.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mary C Politi
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Marie D Kuzemchak
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Jingxia Liu
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Abigail R Barker
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Ellen Peters
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Peter A Ubel
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Kimberly A Kaphingst
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Timothy McBride
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Matthew W Kreuter
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Enbal Shacham
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| | - Sydney E Philpott
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri (MCP, MDK, JL, SEP); Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri (ARB, TM, MWK); Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (EP); Fuqua School of Business, Sanford School of Public Policy, and School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (PAU); Department of Communication, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (KAK); and College for Public Health and Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri (ES)
| |
Collapse
|