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Dandona R, Khan M. Engagement With Death Registration and Cause-of-Death Reporting to Strengthen Suicide Statistics. CRISIS 2024; 45:249-253. [PMID: 39138983 DOI: 10.1027/0227-5910/a000962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/15/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Rakhi Dandona
- Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Centre for Mental Health and Community Wellbeing, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Murad Khan
- Department of Psychiatry and Brain and Mind Institute, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
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Birhanu MM, Zengin A, Joshi R, Evans RG, Kalyanram K, Kartik K, Riddell MA, Suresh O, Srikanth VK, Arabshahi S, Thomas N, Thrift AG. Risk factors for incident cardiovascular events and their population attributable fractions in rural India: The Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study. Trop Med Int Health 2024; 29:377-389. [PMID: 38403844 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/27/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We prospectively determined incident cardiovascular events and their association with risk factors in rural India. METHODS We followed up with 7935 adults from the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study to identify incident cardiovascular events. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations between potential risk factors and cardiovascular events. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for risk factors were estimated using R ('averisk' package). RESULTS Of the 4809 participants without prior cardiovascular disease, 57.7% were women and baseline mean age was 45.3 years. At follow-up (median of 4.9 years, 23,180 person-years [PYs]), 202 participants developed cardiovascular events, equating to an incidence of 8.7 cardiovascular events/1000 PYs. Incidence was greater in those with hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] 1.73 [1.21-2.49], adjusted PAF 18%), diabetes (1.96 [1.15-3.36], 4%) or central obesity (1.77 [1.23, 2.54], 9%) which together accounted for 31% of the PAF. Non-traditional risk factors such as night sleeping hours and number of children accounted for 16% of the PAF. CONCLUSIONS Both traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors are important contributors to incident cardiovascular events in rural India. Interventions targeted to these factors could assist in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mulugeta Molla Birhanu
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ayse Zengin
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rohina Joshi
- School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
| | - Roger G Evans
- Cardiovascular Disease Program, Biomedicine Discovery Institute and Department of Physiology, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Pre-clinical Critical Care Unit, Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Kartik Kalyanram
- Rishi Valley Rural Health Centre, Chittoor, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - Kamakshi Kartik
- Rishi Valley Rural Health Centre, Chittoor, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - Michaela A Riddell
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Oduru Suresh
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Rishi Valley Rural Health Centre, Chittoor, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - Velandai K Srikanth
- Department of Medicine, Peninsula Clinical School, Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- National Centre for Healthy Ageing, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Simin Arabshahi
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Nihal Thomas
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Christian Medical College, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Amanda G Thrift
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Birhanu MM, Zengin A, Evans RG, Joshi R, Kalyanram K, Kartik K, Danaei G, Barr E, Riddell MA, Suresh O, Srikanth VK, Arabshahi S, Thomas N, Thrift AG. Comparison of the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India: the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2024; 31:723-731. [PMID: 38149975 DOI: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwad404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Revised: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 12/20/2023] [Indexed: 12/28/2023]
Abstract
AIMS We compared the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India. METHODS AND RESULTS We applied the World Health Organization Risk Score (WHO-RS) tools, Australian Risk Score (ARS), and Global risk (Globorisk) prediction tools to participants aged 40-74 years, without prior cardiovascular disease, in the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study, Andhra Pradesh, India. Cardiovascular events during the 5-year follow-up period were identified by verbal autopsy (fatal events) or self-report (non-fatal events). The predictive performance of each tool was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Sensitivity and specificity of each tool for identifying high-risk individuals were assessed using a risk score cut-off of 10% alone or this 10% cut-off plus clinical risk criteria of diabetes in those aged >60 years, high blood pressure, or high cholesterol. Among 2333 participants (10 731 person-years of follow-up), 102 participants developed a cardiovascular event. The 5-year observed risk was 4.4% (95% confidence interval: 3.6-5.3). The WHO-RS tools underestimated cardiovascular risk but the ARS overestimated risk, particularly in men. Both the laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.68 and χ2: 26.5, P = 0.003) and non-laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.69 and χ2: 20.29, P = 0.003) Globorisk tools showed relatively good discrimination and agreement. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off improved the diagnostic accuracy of all tools. CONCLUSION Cardiovascular risk prediction tools performed disparately in a setting of disadvantage in rural India, with the Globorisk performing best. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off aids assessment of risk of a cardiovascular event in rural India. LAY SUMMARY In a cohort of people without prior cardiovascular disease, tools used to predict the risk of cardiovascular events varied widely in their ability to accurately predict who would develop a cardiovascular event.The Globorisk, and to a lesser extent the ARS, tools could be appropriate for this setting in rural India.Adding clinical criteria, such as sustained high blood pressure, to a cut-off of 10% risk of a cardiovascular event within 5 years could improve identification of individuals who should be monitored closely and provided with appropriate preventive medications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mulugeta Molla Birhanu
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Level 5, Block E, Monash Medical Centre, 246 Clayton Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3168, Australia
| | - Ayse Zengin
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Level 5, Block E, Monash Medical Centre, 246 Clayton Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3168, Australia
| | - Roger G Evans
- Cardiovascular Disease Program, Biomedicine Discovery Institute and Department of Physiology, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Pre-clinical Critical Care Unit, Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rohina Joshi
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
| | - Kartik Kalyanram
- Rishi Valley Rural Health Centre, Madanapalle, Chittoor District, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - Kamakshi Kartik
- Rishi Valley Rural Health Centre, Madanapalle, Chittoor District, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - Goodarz Danaei
- Department of Global Health and Population and Epidemiology, Harvard University T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Elizabeth Barr
- Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
- Clinical Diabetes and Epidemiology, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michaela A Riddell
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Level 5, Block E, Monash Medical Centre, 246 Clayton Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3168, Australia
| | - Oduru Suresh
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Level 5, Block E, Monash Medical Centre, 246 Clayton Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3168, Australia
- Rishi Valley Rural Health Centre, Madanapalle, Chittoor District, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - Velandai K Srikanth
- Peninsula Clinical School, Central Clinical School, Monash University, Frankston, Victoria, Australia
- National Centre for Healthy Ageing, Monash University and Peninsual Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Simin Arabshahi
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Level 5, Block E, Monash Medical Centre, 246 Clayton Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3168, Australia
| | - Nihal Thomas
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Christian Medical College, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Amanda G Thrift
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Level 5, Block E, Monash Medical Centre, 246 Clayton Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3168, Australia
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Tunga M, Lungo JH, Chambua J, Kateule R, Lyatuu I. Exploring challenges and recommendations for verbal autopsy implementation in low-/middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of Iringa Region-Tanzania. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e075399. [PMID: 38086579 PMCID: PMC10729186 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-075399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/20/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Verbal autopsy (VA) plays a vital role in providing cause-of-death information in places where such information is not available. Many low-/middle-income countries (LMICs) including Tanzania are still struggling to yield quality and adequate cause-of-death data for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS). OBJECTIVE To highlight challenges and recommendations for VA implementation to support LMICs yield quality and adequate mortality statistics for informed decisions on healthcare interventions. DESIGN Cross-sectional study. STUDY SETTING Iringa region in Tanzania. PARTICIPANTS 41 people including 33 community health workers, 1 VA national coordinator, 5 national task force members, 1 VA regional coordinator and 1 member of the VA data management team. RESULTS The perceived challenges of key informants include a weak death notification system, lengthy VA questionnaire, poor data quality and inconsistent responses, lack of clarity in the inclusion criteria, poor commitment to roles and responsibilities, poor coordination, poor financial mechanism and no or delayed feedback to VA implementers. Based on these findings, we recommend the following strategies for effective adaptation and use of VAs: (1) reinforce or implement legislative procedures towards the legal requirement for death notification. (2) Engage key stakeholders in the overall implementation of VAs. (3) Build capacity for data collection, monitoring, processing and use of VA data. (4) Improve the VA questionnaire and quality control mechanism for optimal use in data collection. (5) Create sustainable financing mechanisms and institutionalisation of VA implementation. (6) Integrating VA Implementation in CRVS. CONCLUSION Effective VA implementation demands through planning, stakeholder engagement, upskilling of local experts and fair compensation for interviewers. Such coordinated endeavours will overcome systemic, technical and behavioural challenges hindering VA's successful implementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahadia Tunga
- Computer Science and Engineering, University of Dar es Salaam College of Engineering and Technology, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Juma Hemed Lungo
- Computer Science and Engineering, University of Dar es Salaam College of Engineering and Technology, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - James Chambua
- Computer Science and Engineering, University of Dar es Salaam College of Engineering and Technology, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Ruthbetha Kateule
- Computer Science and Engineering, University of Dar es Salaam College of Engineering and Technology, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
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Bo KS, Firth SM, Phyo TPP, Mar NN, Zaw KK, Kapaw NH, Adair T, Lopez AD. Estimating causes of community death of adults in Myanmar from a nationwide population sample: Application of verbal autopsy. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 3:e0002426. [PMID: 37910476 PMCID: PMC10619871 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/03/2023] [Indexed: 11/03/2023]
Abstract
In Myanmar 84% of deaths occur in the community, of which half are unregistered and none have a reliable cause of death (COD) recorded. Since 2018, Myanmar has introduced improved registration practices and verbal autopsy (VA) to assess whether such methods can produce policy relevant information on community COD. Community health midwives and public health supervisors grade II collected VAs on over 80,000 deaths which occurred between January 2018 and December 2019 in a nationwide sample of 42 townships in Myanmar. Electronic methods were used to collect and consolidate data. The most probable COD was assigned using the SmartVA Analyze 2.0 computer algorithm. Completeness of VA death reporting increased to 71% in 2019. Most adult (12+ years) deaths (82%) were due to non-communicable diseases, primarily stroke, ischemic heart disease and chronic respiratory disease, for both men and women. VA results were consistent with Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study estimates, except for cirrhosis in men, which was more common, and had a younger age distribution of death than the GBD. Large scale implementation of improved death registration practices and COD diagnosis using VA is feasible and provides plausible, timely, disaggregated and policy relevant information on the leading causes of community death. Addressing the burden of non-communicable diseases, particularly cirrhosis in young men, is an important public health priority in Myanmar. Improving completeness of VA death reporting in poorly performing townships and in neonates, children and women will further improve the policy utility of the VA data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khin Sandar Bo
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sonja M. Firth
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Nyo Nyo Mar
- Central Statistical Organization, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar
| | - Ko Ko Zaw
- University of Community Health, Magway, Myanmar
| | | | - Tim Adair
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Alan D. Lopez
- Independent Consultant, Tamborine Mountain, QLD, Australia
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Jelle M, Seal AJ, Mohamed H, Mohamed H, Omar MS, Mohamed S, Mohamed A, Morrison J. Understanding multilevel barriers to childhood vaccination uptake among Internally Displaced Populations (IDPs) in Mogadishu, Somalia: a qualitative study. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:2018. [PMID: 37848917 PMCID: PMC10580585 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16153-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 06/19/2023] [Indexed: 10/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Disparities in vaccination coverage exist in Somalia with Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) being among the groups with the lowest coverage. We implemented an adapted Participatory Learning and Action (PLA) intervention, which focused on routine vaccinations among displaced populations living in Mogadishu IDP camps. The intervention was successful in improving maternal knowledge and vaccination coverage but unsuccessful in improving timely vaccination. We conducted a qualitative study to understand this result and analyze the multi-level barriers to routine childhood immunization uptake. METHOD In this qualitative study we used observation data from 40 PLA group discussions with female caregivers and purposively sampled nine vaccination service providers and six policy makers for interview. We also reviewed national-level vaccine policy documents and assessed the quality of health facilities in the study area. We used the socioecological framework to structure our analysis and analyzed the data in NVivo. RESULTS The barriers to childhood vaccination among IDPs at the individual level were fear due to lack of knowledge, mistrust of vaccines, concerns about side effects and misinformation; opportunity costs; and costs of transportation. At the interpersonal level, family members played an important role as did the extent of decision-making autonomy. Community factors such as cultural practices, gender roles, and household evictions influenced vaccination. Organizational issues at health facilities such as waiting times, vaccine stock-outs, distance to the facility, language differences, and hesitancy of health workers to open multi-dose vials affected vaccination. At the policy level, confusion about the eligible age for routine vaccination and age restrictions for catch-up vaccination and certain antigens such as BCG were important barriers. CONCLUSION Complex and interrelated factors affect childhood vaccination uptake among IDPs in Somalia. Interventions that address multiple barriers simultaneously will have the greatest impact given the complex nature of vulnerabilities in this population. There is a need to strengthen the health system and connect it with existing community structures to increase demand for services. Our research highlights the importance of formative research before implementing interventions. Further research on the integration of health service strengthening with PLA to improve childhood vaccination among IDPs is recommended. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER ISRCTN-83,172,390. Date of registration: 03/08/2021.
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Thanavanh B, Hamajima N, Sida K, Duangdy K, Latsamy L, Senaphane K, Louangpradith V, Sadettan S, Inthaphatha S, Nishino K, Yamamoto E. Assessment of the underlying causes of adult deaths using a short version of verbal autopsy in Xaiyabouli Province, Lao People's Democratic Republic. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:560. [PMID: 36964532 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15469-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2022] [Accepted: 03/18/2023] [Indexed: 03/26/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In developing countries, it is difficult to collect the data of the underlying cause of death (UCOD), especially when a death does not occur in a health facility. This study aimed to develop a short version of verbal autopsy (VA) and identify the UCOD of adults in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). METHODS A short version of VA for deaths outside health facilities was developed. This study included all deaths of people aged 15 years old or older in Xaiyabouli Province in 2020. Socio-demographic factors, place of death, and UCOD of the deceased were collected from health facilities or from family members using a questionnaire including the short VA form. UCOD was compared between home deaths and hospital deaths, between the age group of 15-59 years old and the age group ≥ 60 years old, and between males and females. RESULTS Of all the 1,235 deaths included in this study, 1,012 deaths (81.9%) occured at home and 223 deaths (18.1%) at hospitals. The most common UCOD was senility (13.3%), followed by heart/renal failure (10.5%), pneumonia (9.6%) and traffic accident (7.1%). Compared to hospital deaths, home deaths had more people who were females, 75 years old or older, and Lao-Tai. Home deaths had more deaths than hospital deaths due to accident/injury (16.0% vs. 8.1%), tumor (4.7% vs. 1.8%), and senility (16.2% vs. 0%); fewer deaths due to heart/renal disease (15.1% vs. 32.3%), respiratory disease (12.2% vs. 18.8%), liver/gastro-intestine disease (5.3% vs. 9.0%), and infection (3.1% vs. 14.3%). The age group of 15-59 years had more deaths in the categories of accident/injury (28.1% vs. 4.4%), liver/gastro-intestine disease (8.1% vs. 4.4%), infection (7.2% vs. 3.5%), and tumor (6.0% vs. 2.8%). Males had more deaths due to tumor (5.2% vs. 3.0%) and fewer natural deaths (11.2% vs. 15.9%) than females. CONCLUSIONS The major UCOD category was heart/renal disease in the adult generation in Xaiyabouli Province. Cost-effective interventions based on the multisectoral noncommunicable disease prevention plan should be appropriately implemented. Mortality surveillance using the short VA tool should be conducted for all home deaths in Lao PDR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bounbouly Thanavanh
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
- Xaiyabouli Provincial Health Office, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Xaiyabouli, Laos
| | - Nobuyuki Hamajima
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Kaiyason Sida
- Xaiyabouli Provincial Health Office, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Xaiyabouli, Laos
| | - Kene Duangdy
- Xaiyabouli Provincial Health Office, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Xaiyabouli, Laos
| | - Lasavong Latsamy
- Xaiyabouli Provincial Health Office, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Xaiyabouli, Laos
| | | | - Viengsakhone Louangpradith
- Department of Healthcare and Rehabilitation, Ministry of Health, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Vientiane, Laos
| | - Souphaphone Sadettan
- Cabinet of Ministry of Health, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Vientiane, Laos
| | - Souphalak Inthaphatha
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Kimihiro Nishino
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Eiko Yamamoto
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan.
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Osei-Poku GK, Mwananyanda L, Elliott PA, MacLeod WB, Somwe SW, Pieciak RC, Gill CJ. The apparent burden of unexplained sudden infant deaths in Lusaka, Zambia: Findings from analysis of verbal autopsies. Gates Open Res 2023. [DOI: 10.12688/gatesopenres.14303.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: The contribution of sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) has received little attention in global health. The objective of this study was to estimate the burden of SUID in Lusaka, Zambia. Methods: Verbal autopsies were conducted on infants who died in Lusaka, between 2017 and 2020. From these, we performed a qualitative analysis of the free text narratives of the final series of events leading to each infant’s death and classified these as symptomatic deaths or SUID. Any narrative that described an infant who was otherwise healthy with no antecedent illness prior to death and found dead in bed after a sleep episode was classified as SUID. We used logistic regression to test for statistical differences between asymptomatic deaths and SUIDs on key infant, maternal and other risk factors of SUIDs. Results: Eight hundred and nine verbal autopsies were conducted with families of decedent infants younger than six months of age. A total of 92.6% (749/809) had presented with symptoms prior to death, whereas 7.4% (60/809) died without preceding symptoms or obvious cause of death. Of these, 16/60 were compatible with accidental suffocation deaths, and 54/60 appeared to be sudden infant death syndrome. SUID deaths were concentrated in infants younger than two months of age with peak age of one to two months. Age at death was the only significant factor in multivariate analysis. Infants aged between one and two months had 2.84 increased odds of suspected SUIDs compared to infants in the first month of life (aOR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.31, 6.16). Conclusions: Our findings suggest SUID could be accounting for a significant proportion of infant deaths in Zambia, but this cause of infant mortality is going unrecognized. Public health interventions in Zambia, and Africa more broadly, are likely overlooking SUIDs as an important cause of infant mortality.
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Agyemang C, van der Linden EL, Antwi-Berko D, Nkansah Darko S, Twumasi-Ankrah S, Meeks K, van den Born BJH, Henneman P, Owusu-Dabo E, Beune E. Cohort profile: Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants in Europe and Africa Prospective (RODAM-Pros) cohort study. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e067906. [PMID: 36521887 PMCID: PMC9756160 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-067906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE The Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM) prospective (RODAM-Pros) cohort study was established to identify key changes in environmental exposures and epigenetic modifications driving the high burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among sub-Saharan African migrants. PARTICIPANTS All the participants in the RODAM cross-sectional study that completed the baseline assessment (n=5114) were eligible for the follow-up of which 2165 participants (n=638 from rural-Ghana, n=608 from urban-Ghana, and n=919 Ghanaian migrants in Amsterdam, the Netherlands) were included in the RODAM-Pros cohort study. Additionally, we included a subsample of European-Dutch (n=2098) to enable a comparison to be made between Ghanaian migrants living in the Netherlands and the European-Dutch host population. FINDINGS TO DATE Follow-up data have been collected on demographics, socioeconomic status, medical history, psychosocial environment, lifestyle factors, nutrition, anthropometrics, blood pressure, fasting blood, urine and stool samples. Biochemical analyses included glucose metabolism, lipid profile, electrolytes and renal function, liver metabolism and inflammation. In a subsample, we assessed DNA methylation patterns using Infinium 850K DNA Methylation BeadChip. Baseline results indicated that migrants have higher prevalence of CVD risk factors than non-migrants. Epigenome-wide association studies suggest important differences in DNA methylation between migrants and non-migrants. The follow-up study will shed further light on key-specific environmental exposures and epigenetic modifications contributing to the high burden of CVD risk among sub-Saharan African migrants. FUTURE PLANS Follow-up is planned at 5-year intervals, baseline completed in 2015 and first follow-up completed in 2021.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles Agyemang
- Department of Public and Occupational Health, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Eva L van der Linden
- Department of Public and Occupational Health, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Vascular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Daniel Antwi-Berko
- Department of Public and Occupational Health, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Samuel Nkansah Darko
- School of Public Health, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
- Department of Molecular Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Sampson Twumasi-Ankrah
- School of Public Health, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
- Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Karlijn Meeks
- Department of Public and Occupational Health, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Center for Research on Genomics and Global Health, National Human Genome Research Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Bert-Jan H van den Born
- Department of Public and Occupational Health, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Vascular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Peter Henneman
- Department of Human Genetics, Genome Diagnostics laboratory Amsterdam, Reproduction & Development, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ellis Owusu-Dabo
- School of Public Health, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Erik Beune
- Department of Public and Occupational Health, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Gill CJ, Mwananyanda L, MacLeod WB, Kwenda G, Pieciak RC, Etter L, Bridges D, Chikoti C, Chirwa S, Chimoga C, Forman L, Katowa B, Lapidot R, Lungu J, Matoba J, Mwinga G, Mubemba B, Mupila Z, Muleya W, Mwenda M, Ngoma B, Nakazwe R, Nzara D, Pawlak N, Pemba L, Saasa N, Simulundu E, Yankonde B, Thea DM. What is the prevalence of COVID-19 detection by PCR among deceased individuals in Lusaka, Zambia? A postmortem surveillance study. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e066763. [PMID: 36600354 PMCID: PMC9729848 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-066763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine the prevalence of COVID-19 postmortem setting in Lusaka, Zambia. DESIGN A systematic, postmortem prevalence study. SETTING A busy, inner-city morgue in Lusaka. PARTICIPANTS We sampled a random subset of all decedents who transited the University Teaching Hospital morgue. We sampled the posterior nasopharynx of decedents using quantitative PCR. Prevalence was weighted to account for age-specific enrolment strategies. INTERVENTIONS Not applicable-this was an observational study. PRIMARY OUTCOMES Prevalence of COVID-19 detections by PCR. Results were stratified by setting (facility vs community deaths), age, demographics and geography and time. SECONDARY OUTCOMES Shifts in viral variants; causal inferences based on cycle threshold values and other features; antemortem testing rates. RESULTS From 1118 decedents enrolled between January and June 2021, COVID-19 was detected among 32.0% (358/1116). Roughly four COVID-19+ community deaths occurred for every facility death. Antemortem testing occurred for 52.6% (302/574) of facility deaths but only 1.8% (10/544) of community deaths and overall, only ~10% of COVID-19+ deaths were identified in life. During peak transmission periods, COVID-19 was detected in ~90% of all deaths. We observed three waves of transmission that peaked in July 2020, January 2021 and ~June 2021: the AE.1 lineage and the Beta and Delta variants, respectively. PCR signals were strongest among those whose deaths were deemed 'probably due to COVID-19', and weakest among children, with an age-dependent increase in PCR signal intensity. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 was common among deceased individuals in Lusaka. Antemortem testing was rarely done, and almost never for community deaths. Suspicion that COVID-19 was the cause of deaths was highest for those with a respiratory syndrome and lowest for individuals <19 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher J Gill
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Lawrence Mwananyanda
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - William B MacLeod
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Geoffrey Kwenda
- Biomedical Sciences, University of Zambia, Ridgeway Campus, Lusaka, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Rachel C Pieciak
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Lauren Etter
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Daniel Bridges
- Program for Applied Technology in Health (PATH), Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | | | | | - Leah Forman
- Biostatistics and Epidemiology Data Analytics Center, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Ben Katowa
- Macha Research Trust, Choma, Southern Province, Zambia
| | - Rotem Lapidot
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Boston Medical Center, Brookline, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Japhet Matoba
- Macha Research Trust, Choma, Southern Province, Zambia
| | | | - Benjamin Mubemba
- Wildlife Sciences, The Copperbelt University, Kitwe, Copperbelt, Zambia
| | | | - Walter Muleya
- Biomedical Sciences, University of Zambia School of Veterinary Medicine, Lusaka, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Mulenga Mwenda
- Program for Applied Technology in Health, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Ruth Nakazwe
- Biomedical Sciences, University of Zambia University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Natalie Pawlak
- Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Ngonda Saasa
- University of Zambia School of Veterinary Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | | | - Donald M Thea
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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11
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Mahesh BPK, Hart JD, Acharya A, Chowdhury HR, Joshi R, Adair T, Hazard RH. Validation studies of verbal autopsy methods: a systematic review. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:2215. [PMID: 36447199 PMCID: PMC9706899 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-14628-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2021] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Verbal autopsy (VA) has emerged as an increasingly popular technique to assign cause of death in parts of the world where the majority of deaths occur without proper medical certification. The purpose of this study was to examine the key characteristics of studies that have attempted to validate VA cause of death against an established cause of death. METHODS A systematic review was conducted by searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane-library, and Scopus electronic databases. Included studies contained 1) a VA component, 2) a validation component, and 3) original analysis or re-analysis. Characteristics of VA studies were extracted. A total of 527 studies were assessed, and 481 studies screened to give 66 studies selected for data extraction. RESULTS Sixty-six studies were included from multiple countries. Ten studies used an existing database. Sixteen studies used the World Health Organization VA questionnaire and 5 studies used the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium VA questionnaire. Physician certification was used in 36 studies and computer coded methods were used in 14 studies. Thirty-seven studies used high level comparator data with detailed laboratory investigations. CONCLUSION Most studies found VA to be an effective cause of death assignment method and compared VA cause of death to a high-quality established cause of death. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies in the methodologies of the validation studies, and many used poor quality comparison cause of death data. Future VA validation studies should adhere to consistent methodological criteria so that policymakers can easily interpret the findings to select the most appropriate VA method. PROSPERO REGISTRATION CRD42020186886.
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Affiliation(s)
- Buddhika P. K. Mahesh
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - John D. Hart
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ajay Acharya
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Hafizur Rahman Chowdhury
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rohina Joshi
- grid.464831.c0000 0004 8496 8261The George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India ,grid.1005.40000 0004 4902 0432School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Tim Adair
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Riley H. Hazard
- grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
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12
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Pavlinac PB, Singa B, Huang ML, Shrestha L, Li V, Atlas HE, Diakhate MM, Brander R, Meshak L, Bogonko G, Tickell KD, McGrath CJ, Machuara IM, Ounga DO, Berkley JA, Richardson BA, John-Stewart G, Walson JL, Slyker J. Cytomegalovirus Viremia Predicts Postdischarge Mortality in Kenyan HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children. J Infect Dis 2022; 226:1519-1527. [PMID: 35152295 PMCID: PMC9624454 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiac047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia is associated with mortality in severely ill immunocompetent adults and hospitalized children with HIV (CWH). We measured CMV viremia in HIV-exposed and -unexposed Kenyan children aged 1-59 months discharged from hospital and determined its relationship with postdischarge mortality. METHODS CMV DNA levels were measured in plasma from 1024 children (97 of which were HIV exposed uninfected [HEU], and 15 CWH). Poisson and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify correlates of CMV viremia ≥ 1000 IU/mL
and estimate associations with 6-month mortality, respectively. RESULTS CMV viremia was detected in 31% of children, with levels ≥ 1000 IU/mL in 5.8%. HIV infection, age < 2 years, breastfeeding, and midupper arm circumference < 12.5 cm were associated with CMV viremia ≥ 1000 IU/mL. Among HEU children, CMV ≥ 1000 IU/mL (hazard ratio [HR] = 32.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.9-354.0; P = .005) and each 1-log increase in CMV viral load (HR = 5.04; 95% CI, 1.7-14.6; P = .003) were associated with increased risk of mortality. CMV viremia was not significantly associated with mortality in HIV-unexposed children. CONCLUSIONS CMV levels at hospital postdischarge predict increased risk of 6-month mortality in Kenyan HEU children. CMV suppression may be a novel target to reduce mortality in HEU children. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT02414399.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia B Pavlinac
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Benson Singa
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition Network, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Meei-Li Huang
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Lasata Shrestha
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Vanessa Li
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Hannah E Atlas
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | - Rebecca Brander
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Liru Meshak
- Homa Bay Teaching and Referral Hospital, Homa Bay, Kenya
| | | | - Kirkby D Tickell
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition Network, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Christine J McGrath
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition Network, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | | | - James A Berkley
- Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition Network, Nairobi, Kenya
- Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
- Center for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Barbra A Richardson
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Grace John-Stewart
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Medicine, Allergy, and Infectious Disease, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Judd L Walson
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition Network, Nairobi, Kenya
- Department of Medicine, Allergy, and Infectious Disease, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Jennifer Slyker
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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13
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Chen L, Xia T, Rampatige R, Li H, Adair T, Joshi R, Gu Z, Yu H, Fang B, McLaughlin D, Lopez AD, Wang C, Yuan Z. Assessing the Diagnostic Accuracy of Physicians for Home Death Certification in Shanghai: Application of SmartVA. Front Public Health 2022; 10:842880. [PMID: 35784257 PMCID: PMC9247331 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.842880] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2021] [Accepted: 05/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Approximately 30% of deaths in Shanghai either occur at home or are not medically attended. The recorded cause of death (COD) in these cases may not be reliable. We applied the Smart Verbal Autopsy (VA) tool to assign the COD for a representative sample of home deaths certified by 16 community health centers (CHCs) from three districts in Shanghai, from December 2017 to June 2018. The results were compared with diagnoses from routine practice to ascertain the added value of using SmartVA. Overall, cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy improved from 0.93 (93%) to 0.96 after the application of SmartVA. A comparison with a “gold standard (GS)” diagnoses obtained from a parallel medical record review investigation found that 86.3% of the initial diagnoses made by the CHCs were assigned the correct COD, increasing to 90.5% after the application of SmartVA. We conclude that routine application of SmartVA is not indicated for general use in CHCs, although the tool did improve diagnostic accuracy for residual causes, such as other or ill-defined cancers and non-communicable diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lei Chen
- Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China
| | - Tian Xia
- Shanghai Institutes of Preventive Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Rasika Rampatige
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Hang Li
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Tim Adair
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Rohina Joshi
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine, The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- The George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
| | - Zhen Gu
- Vital Strategies, New York, NY, United States
| | - Huiting Yu
- Shanghai Institutes of Preventive Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Bo Fang
- Shanghai Institutes of Preventive Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Deirdre McLaughlin
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Alan D. Lopez
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, IHME, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Chunfang Wang
- Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China
| | - Zheng'an Yuan
- Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China
- *Correspondence: Zheng'an Yuan
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14
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Yokobori Y, Matsuura J, Sugiura Y, Mutemba C, Julius P, Himwaze C, Nyahoda M, Mwango C, Kazhumbula L, Yuasa M, Munkombwe B, Mucheleng'anga L. Comparison of the Causes of Death Identified Using Automated Verbal Autopsy and Complete Autopsy among Brought-in-Dead Cases at a Tertiary Hospital in Sub-Sahara Africa. Appl Clin Inform 2022; 13:583-591. [PMID: 35705183 PMCID: PMC9200488 DOI: 10.1055/s-0042-1749118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Over one-third of deaths recorded at health facilities in Zambia are brought in dead (BID) and the causes of death (CODs) are not fully analyzed. The use of automated verbal autopsy (VA) has reportedly determined the CODs of more BID cases than the death notification form issued by the hospital. However, the validity of automated VA is yet to be fully investigated. OBJECTIVES To compare the CODs identified by automated VA with those by complete autopsy to examine the validity of a VA tool. METHODS The study site was the tertiary hospital in the capital city of Zambia. From September 2019 to January 2020, all BID cases aged 13 years and older brought to the hospital during the daytime on weekdays were enrolled in this study. External COD cases were excluded. The deceased's relatives were interviewed using the 2016 World Health Organization VA questionnaire. The data were analyzed using InterVA, an automated VA tool, to determine the CODs, which were compared with the results of complete autopsies. RESULTS A total of 63 cases were included. The CODs of 50 BID cases were determined by both InterVA and complete autopsies. The positive predictive value of InterVA was 22%. InterVA determined the CODs correctly in 100% cases of maternal CODs, 27.5% cases of noncommunicable disease CODs, and 5.3% cases of communicable disease CODs. Using the three broader disease groups, 56.0% cases were classified in the same groups by both methods. CONCLUSION While the positive predictive value was low, more than half of the cases were categorized into the same broader categories. However, there are several limitations in this study, including small sample size. More research is required to investigate the factors leading to discrepancies between the CODs determined by both methods to optimize the use of automated VA in Zambia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuta Yokobori
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Japan,Department of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Juntendo University, Tokyo, Japan,Address for correspondence Yuta Yokobori, MD, MPH, MSc 1-21-1, Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, TokyoJapan
| | - Jun Matsuura
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Japan
| | - Yasuo Sugiura
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Japan
| | - Charles Mutemba
- Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia,Adult Hospital, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Peter Julius
- Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia,Department of Pathology and Microbiology, School of Medicine, The University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Cordelia Himwaze
- Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia,Department of Pathology and Microbiology, School of Medicine, The University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Martin Nyahoda
- Department of National Registration of Home Passport & Citizenship, Ministry Affairs, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Chomba Mwango
- Bloomberg Data for Health Initiative, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Motoyuki Yuasa
- Department of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Juntendo University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Brian Munkombwe
- National Center for Health Statistics, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States
| | - Luchenga Mucheleng'anga
- Office of the State Forensic Pathologist, Ministry of Home Affairs and Internal Security, Lusaka, Zambia
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15
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de André CDS, Bierrenbach AL, Barroso LP, de André PA, Justo LT, Pereira LAA, Taniguchi MT, Minto CM, Takecian PL, Kamaura LT, Ferreira JE, Hazard RH, Mclaughlin D, Riley I, Lopez AD, Ramos AMDO, de Souza MDFM, França EB, Saldiva PHN, da Silva LFF. Validation of physician certified verbal autopsy using conventional autopsy: a large study of adult non-external causes of death in a metropolitan area in Brazil. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:748. [PMID: 35421964 PMCID: PMC9008898 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13081-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2021] [Accepted: 03/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Reliable mortality data are essential for the development of public health policies. In Brazil, although there is a well-consolidated universal system for mortality data, the quality of information on causes of death (CoD) is not even among Brazilian regions, with a high proportion of ill-defined CoD. Verbal autopsy (VA) is an alternative to improve mortality data. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of an adapted and reduced version of VA in identifying the underlying causes of non-forensic deaths, in São Paulo, Brazil. This is the first time that a version of the questionnaire has been validated considering the autopsy as the gold standard.
Methods
The performance of a physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) was evaluated considering conventional autopsy (macroscopy plus microscopy) as gold standard, based on a sample of 2060 decedents that were sent to the Post-Mortem Verification Service (SVOC-USP). All CoD, from the underlying to the immediate, were listed by both parties, and ICD-10 attributed by a senior coder. For each cause, sensitivity and chance corrected concordance (CCC) were computed considering first the underlying causes attributed by the pathologist and PCVA, and then any CoD listed in the death certificate given by PCVA. Cause specific mortality fraction accuracy (CSMF-accuracy) and chance corrected CSMF-accuracy were computed to evaluate the PCVA performance at the populational level.
Results
There was substantial variability of the sensitivities and CCC across the causes. Well-known chronic diseases with accurate diagnoses that had been informed by physicians to family members, such as various cancers, had sensitivities above 40% or 50%. However, PCVA was not effective in attributing Pneumonia, Cardiomyopathy and Leukemia/Lymphoma as underlying CoD. At populational level, the PCVA estimated cause specific mortality fractions (CSMF) may be considered close to the fractions pointed by the gold standard. The CSMF-accuracy was 0.81 and the chance corrected CSMF-accuracy was 0.49.
Conclusions
The PCVA was efficient in attributing some causes individually and proved effective in estimating the CSMF, which indicates that the method is useful to establish public health priorities.
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16
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Gill CJ, Mwananyanda L, MacLeod WB, Kwenda G, Pieciak R, Mupila Z, Murphy C, Chikoti C, Forman L, Berklein F, Lapidot R, Chimoga C, Ngoma B, Larson A, Lungu J, Nakazwe R, Nzara D, Pemba L, Yankonde B, Chirwa A, Mwale M, Thea DM. Infant deaths from respiratory syncytial virus in Lusaka, Zambia from the ZPRIME study: a 3-year, systematic, post-mortem surveillance project. Lancet Glob Health 2022; 10:e269-e277. [PMID: 35063114 PMCID: PMC8789563 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00518-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Revised: 10/22/2021] [Accepted: 10/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections and a key driver of childhood mortality. Previous RSV burden of disease estimates used hospital-based surveillance data and modelled, rather than directly measured, community deaths. Given this uncertainty, we conducted a 3-year post-mortem prevalence study among young infants at a busy morgue in Lusaka, Zambia—the Zambia Pertussis RSV Infant Mortality Estimation (ZPRIME) study. Methods Infants were eligible for inclusion if they were aged between 4 days and less than 6 months and were enrolled within 48 h of death. Enrolment occurred mainly at the University Teaching Hospital of the University of Zambia Medical School (Lusaka, Zambia), the largest teaching hospital in Zambia. We extracted demographic and clinical data from medical charts and official death certificates, and we conducted verbal autopsies with the guardian or next of kin. RSV was identified using reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR and stratified by age, time of year, and setting (community vs facility deaths). By combining the PCR prevalence data with syndromic presentation, we estimated the proportion of all infant deaths that were due to RSV. Findings The ZPRIME study ran from Aug 31, 2017, to Aug 31, 2020, except for from April 1 to May 6, 2020, during which data were not collected due to restrictions on human research at this time (linked to COVID-19). We enrolled 2286 deceased infants, representing 79% of total infant deaths in Lusaka. RSV was detected in 162 (7%) of 2286 deceased infants. RSV was detected in 102 (9%) of 1176 community deaths, compared with 10 (4%) of 236 early facility deaths (<48 h from admission) and 36 (5%) of 737 late facility deaths (≥48 h from admission). RSV deaths were concentrated in infants younger than 3 months (116 [72%] of 162 infants), and were clustered in the first half of each year and in the poorest and most densely populated Lusaka townships. RSV caused at least 2·8% (95% CI 1·0–4·6) of all infant deaths and 4·7% (1·3–8·1) of community deaths. Interpretation RSV was a major seasonal cause of overall infant mortality, particularly among infants younger than 3 months of age. Because most RSV deaths occurred in the community and would have been missed through hospital-based surveillance, the global burden of fatal RSV has probably been underestimated. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher J Gill
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
| | - Lawrence Mwananyanda
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Right to Care Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - William B MacLeod
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Geoffrey Kwenda
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, School of Health Sciences, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Rachel Pieciak
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | | | | | - Leah Forman
- Biostatistics and Epidemiology Data Analytics Center, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Flora Berklein
- Biostatistics and Epidemiology Data Analytics Center, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Rotem Lapidot
- Department of Pediatrics, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | | | - Anna Larson
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Angel Chirwa
- Department of Psychiatry, University Teaching Hospital, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Donald M Thea
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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17
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Hart JD, Kwa V, Dakulala P, Ripa P, Frank D, Golpak V, Adair T, Mclaughlin D, Riley ID, Lopez AD. How advanced is the epidemiological transition in Papua New Guinea? New evidence from verbal autopsy. Int J Epidemiol 2022; 50:2058-2069. [PMID: 34999867 PMCID: PMC8743130 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/13/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Reliable cause of death (COD) data are not available for the majority of deaths in Papua New Guinea (PNG), despite their critical policy value. Automated verbal autopsy (VA) methods, involving an interview and automated analysis to diagnose causes of community deaths, have recently been trialled in PNG. Here, we report VA results from three sites and highlight the utility of these methods to generate information about the leading CODs in the country. METHODS VA methods were introduced in one district in each of three provinces: Alotau in Milne Bay; Tambul-Nebilyer in Western Highlands; and Talasea in West New Britain. VA interviews were conducted using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) shortened questionnaire and analysed using the SmartVA automated diagnostic algorithm. RESULTS A total of 1655 VAs were collected between June 2018 and November 2019, 87.0% of which related to deaths at age 12 years and over. Our findings suggest a continuing high proportion of deaths due to infectious diseases (27.0%) and a lower proportion of deaths due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (50.8%) than estimated by the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017: 16.5% infectious diseases and 70.5% NCDs. The proportion of injury deaths was also high compared with GBD: 22.5% versus 13.0%. CONCLUSIONS Health policy in PNG needs to address a 'triple burden' of high infectious mortality, rising NCDs and a high fraction of deaths due to injuries. This study demonstrates the potential of automated VA methods to generate timely, reliable and policy-relevant data on COD patterns in hard-to-reach populations in PNG.
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Affiliation(s)
- John D Hart
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, Australia
| | - Viola Kwa
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, Australia
| | - Paison Dakulala
- National Department of Health, Islander Drive, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea
| | - Paulus Ripa
- Western Highlands Provincial Health Authority, Mt Hagen, Papua New Guinea
| | - Dale Frank
- Milne Bay Provincial Health Authority, Alotau, Papua New Guinea
| | - Victor Golpak
- West New Britain Provincial Health Authority, Kimbe, Papua New Guinea
| | - Timothy Adair
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, Australia
| | - Deirdre Mclaughlin
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, Australia
| | - Ian D Riley
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, Australia
| | - Alan D Lopez
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, Australia
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18
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Hart JD, de André PA, de André CDS, Adair T, Barroso LP, Valongueiro S, Bierrenbach AL, de Carvalho PI, Antunes MBDC, de Oliveira CM, Pereira LAA, Minto CM, Bezerra TMDS, Costa SP, de Azevedo BA, de Lima JRA, Mota DSDM, Ramos AMDO, de Souza MDFM, da Silva LFF, França EB, McLaughlin D, Riley ID, Saldiva PHN. Validation of SmartVA using conventional autopsy: A study of adult deaths in Brazil. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. AMERICAS 2022; 5:100081. [PMID: 36776454 PMCID: PMC9904092 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2021.100081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2021] [Revised: 08/21/2021] [Accepted: 09/06/2021] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate cause of death data are essential to guide health policy. However, mortality surveillance is limited in many low-income countries. In such settings, verbal autopsy (VA) is increasingly used to provide population-level cause of death data. VAs are now widely interpreted using the automated algorithms SmartVA and InterVA. Here we use conventional autopsy as the gold standard to validate SmartVA methodology. METHODS This study included adult deaths from natural causes in São Paulo and Recife for which conventional autopsy was indicated. VA was conducted with a relative of the deceased using an amended version of the SmartVA instrument to suit the local context. Causes of death from VA were produced using the SmartVA-Analyze program. Physician coded verbal autopsy (PCVA), conducted on the same questionnaires, and Global Burden of Disease Study data were used as additional comparators. Cause of death data were grouped into 10 broad causes for the validation due to the real-world utility of VA lying in identifying broad population cause of death patterns. FINDINGS The study included 2,060 deaths in São Paulo and 1,079 in Recife. The cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) estimated using SmartVA were broadly similar to conventional autopsy for: cardiovascular diseases (46.8% vs 54.0%, respectively), cancers (10.6% vs 11.4%), infections (7.0% vs 10.4%) and chronic respiratory disease (4.1% vs 3.7%), causes accounting for 76.1% of the autopsy dataset. The SmartVA CSMF estimates were lower than autopsy for "Other NCDs" (7.8% vs 14.6%) and higher for diabetes (13.0% vs 6.6%). CSMF accuracy of SmartVA compared to autopsy was 84.5%. CSMF accuracy for PCVA was 93.0%. INTERPRETATION The results suggest that SmartVA can, with reasonable accuracy, predict the broad cause of death groups important to assess a population's epidemiological transition. VA remains a useful tool for understanding causes of death where medical certification is not possible.
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Affiliation(s)
- John D. Hart
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | | | | | - Tim Adair
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Lucia Pereira Barroso
- University of São Paulo, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Ana Luiza Bierrenbach
- Sírio-Libanês Hospital, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Vital Strategies, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ana Maria de Oliveira Ramos
- Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Health Sciences Center, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
- Natal Autopsy Service, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
| | | | - Luiz Fernando Ferraz da Silva
- University of São Paulo, School of Medicine, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- São Paulo Autopsy Service, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Deirdre McLaughlin
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ian D. Riley
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
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19
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França EB, Ishitani LH, de Abreu DMX, Teixeira RA, Corrêa PRL, de Jesus EDS, Marinho MAD, Bahia TV, Bierrenbach AL, Setel P, Marinho F. Measuring misclassification of Covid-19 as garbage codes: Results of investigating 1,365 deaths and implications for vital statistics in Brazil. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 2:e0000199. [PMID: 36962159 PMCID: PMC10021639 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to quantify the amount of misclassification of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) mortality occurring in hospitals and other health facilities in selected cities in Brazil, discuss potential factors contributing to this misclassification, and consider the implications for vital statistics. Hospital deaths assigned to causes classified as garbage code (GC) COVID-related cases (severe acute respiratory syndrome, pneumonia unspecified, sepsis, respiratory failure and ill-defined causes) were selected in three Brazilian state capitals. Data from medical charts and forensic reports were extracted from standard forms and analyzed by study physicians who re-assigned the underlying cause based on standardized criteria. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed and the potential impact in vital statistics in the country was also evaluated. Among 1,365 investigated deaths due to GC-COVID-related causes, COVID-19 was detected in 17.3% in the age group 0-59 years and 25.5% deaths in 60 years and over. These GCs rose substantially in 2020 in the country and were responsible for 211,611 registered deaths. Applying observed proportions by age, location and specific GC-COVID-related cause to national data, there would be an increase of 37,163 cases in the total of COVID-19 deaths, higher in the elderly. In conclusion, important undercount of deaths from COVID-19 among GC-COVID-related causes was detected in three selected capitals of Brazil. After extrapolating the study results for national GC-COVID-related deaths we infer that the burden of COVID-19 disease in Brazil in official vital statistics was probably under estimated by at least 18% in the country in 2020.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisabeth B França
- Graduate Program in Public Health, School of Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
- Research Group on Epidemiology and Health Evaluation, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Lenice H Ishitani
- Research Group on Epidemiology and Health Evaluation, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Daisy Maria Xavier de Abreu
- Research Group on Epidemiology and Health Evaluation, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Renato Azeredo Teixeira
- Research Group on Epidemiology and Health Evaluation, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Philip Setel
- Vital Strategies, New York, New York, United States of America
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20
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Generating cause of death information to inform health policy: implementation of an automated verbal autopsy system in the Solomon Islands. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:2080. [PMID: 34774055 PMCID: PMC8590305 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-12180-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Good quality cause of death (COD) information is fundamental for formulating and evaluating public health policy; yet most deaths in developing countries, including the Solomon Islands, occur at home without medical certification of cause of death (MCCOD). As a result, COD data in such contexts are often of limited use for policy and planning. Verbal autopsies (VAs) are a cost-effective way of generating reliable COD information in populations lacking comprehensive MCCOD coverage, but this method has not previously been applied in the Solomon Islands. This study describes the establishment of a VA system to estimate the cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for community deaths that are not medically certified in the Solomon Islands. Methods Automated VA methods (SmartVA) were introduced into the Solomon Islands in 2016. Trained data collectors (nurses) conducted VAs on eligible deaths to December 2020 using electronic tablet devices and VA responses were analysed using the Tariff 2.0 automated diagnostic algorithm. CSMFs were generated for both non-inpatient deaths in hospitals (i.e. ‘dead on/by arrival’) and community deaths. Results VA was applied to 914 adolescent-and-adult deaths with a median (IQR) age of 62 (45–75) years, 61% of whom were males. A specific COD could be diagnosed for more than 85% of deaths. The leading causes of death for both sexes combined were: ischemic heart disease (16.3%), stroke (13.5%), diabetes (8.1%), pneumonia (5.7%) and chronic-respiratory disease (4.8%). Stroke was the top-ranked cause for females, and ischaemic heart disease the leading cause for males. The CSMFs from the VAs were similar to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates. Overall, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) accounted for 73% of adult deaths; communicable, maternal and nutritional conditions 15%, and injuries 12%. Six of the ten leading causes reported for facility deaths in the Solomon Islands were also identified as leading causes of community deaths based on the VA diagnoses. Conclusions NCDs are the leading cause of adult deaths in the Solomon Islands. Automated VA methods are an effective means of generating reliable COD information for community deaths in the Solomon Islands and should be routinely incorporated into the national mortality surveillance system. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12180-y.
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Saxena A, Paul BS, Singh G, Ahluwalia A, Paul G. Predicting Outcome in Skull Base Osteomyelitis: An Assessment of Demographic, Clinical, and Pathological Attributes. J Neurosci Rural Pract 2021; 12:751-757. [PMID: 34737511 PMCID: PMC8559086 DOI: 10.1055/s-0041-1735324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective
Skull base osteomyelitis (SBO) is an enigmatic clinical diagnosis which is difficult to decipher and is associated with poor outcomes. The study aims to examine the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with SBO and its outcomes.
Materials and Methods
Medical records of 30 patients with diagnosis of SBO over past 5 years were assessed for demographic and clinical characteristics, type of SBO, radiological parameters, treatment received, procedure performed, microbiological profile, comorbidities, and complications including cranial nerve (CN) palsies. These factors were analyzed for prediction of outcome (death or survival).
Statistical Analysis
Microsoft Office Excel 2010 SAS 10.0 for Windows was used. Student's
t
-test for continuous variables (age, duration of symptoms, number of days of hospitalization, and treatment duration) and chi-square test for categorical variables (imaging findings, symptomatology, presence of comorbidities, surgical procedure, complications, and type of antibiotics) were utilized.
Results
We found SBO was the disease of elderly population (64.07 ± 6.13 years) with male predominance (83.3%) highly associated with uncontrolled diabetes status (93.3%). Headache (100%) and CN palsy (80%) were the most common neurological presenting complaints followed by stroke (17%) and encephalopathy (10%). Pathological and radiological correlation showed that fungal infection (
Aspergillus
) was associated with anterior SBO (10%), while bacteria (
Pseudomonas
) was cultured from posterior SBO (30%). Fifty per cent of patients were alive after 1 year out of which 33% had good functional outcome. The mortality rate was 33.3% in our cohort and multiple lower CN palsies (
p
= 0.04), suboptimal duration of medical treatment (
p
= 0.03), surgical intervention during clinical course (
p
= 0.02), and development of intracranial or extracranial complications (
p
= 0.03) were the predictors of mortality.
Conclusion
Early diagnosis including identification of pathogenic organisms and optimal duration of treatment are crucial factors for improved outcomes in SBO.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alisha Saxena
- Department of Neurology, Dayanand Medical College & Hospital, Ludhiana, Punjab, India
| | - Birinder Singh Paul
- Department of Neurology, Dayanand Medical College & Hospital, Ludhiana, Punjab, India
| | - Gagandeep Singh
- Department of Neurology, Dayanand Medical College & Hospital, Ludhiana, Punjab, India
| | - Archana Ahluwalia
- Department of Radiodiagnosis, Dayanand Medical College & Hospital, Ludhiana, Punjab, India
| | - Gunchan Paul
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Dayanand Medical College & Hospital, Ludhiana, Punjab, India
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22
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Gona PN, Kimokoti RW, Gona CM, Ballout S, Rao SR, Mapoma CC, Lo J, Mokdad AH. Changes in body mass index, obesity, and overweight in Southern Africa development countries, 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. Obes Sci Pract 2021; 7:509-524. [PMID: 34631130 PMCID: PMC8488455 DOI: 10.1002/osp4.519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2020] [Revised: 03/06/2021] [Accepted: 04/25/2021] [Indexed: 01/30/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND High body mass index (BMI) is associated with stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). An epidemiological analysis of the prevalence of high BMI, stroke, IHD, and T2DM was conducted for 16 Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study data. METHODS GBD obtained data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and ICD codes. Prevalence of high BMI (≥25 kg/m2), stroke, IHD, and T2DM attributed to high BMI were calculated. Cause of Death Ensemble Model and Spatiotemporal Gaussian regression was used to estimate mortality due to stroke, IHD, and T2DM attributable to high BMI. RESULTS Obesity in adult females increased 1.54-fold from 12.0% (uncertainty interval [UI]: 11.5-12.4) to 18.5% (17.9-19.0), whereas in adult males, obesity nearly doubled from 4.5 (4.3-4.8) to 8.8 (8.5-9.2). In children, obesity more than doubled in both sexes, and overweight increased by 27.4% in girls and by 37.4% in boys. Mean BMI increased by 0.7 from 22.4 (21.6-23.1) to 23.1 (22.3-24.0) in adult males, and by 1.0 from 23.8 (22.9-24.7) to 24.8 (23.8-25.8) in adult females. South Africa 44.7 (42.5-46.8), Swaziland 33.9 (31.7-36.0) and Lesotho 31.6 (29.8-33.5) had the highest prevalence of obesity in 2019. The corresponding prevalence in males for the three countries were 19.1 (17.5-20.7), 19.3 (17.7-20.8), and 9.2 (8.4-10.1), respectively. The DRC and Madagascar had the least prevalence of adult obesity, from 5.6 (4.8-6.4) and 7.0 (6.1-7.9), respectively in females in 2019, and in males from 4.9 (4.3-5.4) in the DRC to 3.9 (3.4-4.4) in Madagascar. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of high BMI is high in SADC. Obesity more than doubled in adults and nearly doubled in children. The 2019 mean BMI for adult females in seven countries exceeded 25 kg/m2. SADC countries are unlikely to meet UN2030 SDG targets. Prevalence of high BMI should be studied locally to help reduce morbidity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philimon N. Gona
- College of Nursing & Health SciencesUniversity of Massachusetts BostonBostonMAUSA
| | | | - Clara M. Gona
- Department of NursingMGH Institute for Health ProfessionsBostonMAUSA
| | - Suha Ballout
- College of Nursing & Health SciencesUniversity of Massachusetts BostonBostonMAUSA
| | - Sowmya R. Rao
- Department of Global HealthBoston University School of Public HealthBostonMAUSA
| | | | - Justin Lo
- Institute for Health Metrics and EvaluationUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
| | - Ali H. Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and EvaluationUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWAUSA
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23
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Pavlinac PB, Singa BO, Tickell KD, Brander RL, McGrath CJ, Amondi M, Otieno J, Akinyi E, Rwigi D, Carreon JD, Tornberg-Belanger SN, Nduati R, Babigumira JB, Meshak L, Bogonko G, Kariuki S, Richardson BA, John-Stewart GC, Walson JL. Azithromycin for the prevention of rehospitalisation and death among Kenyan children being discharged from hospital: a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised controlled trial. LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2021; 9:e1569-e1578. [PMID: 34559992 PMCID: PMC8638697 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00347-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2021] [Revised: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mass drug administration of azithromycin to children in sub-Saharan Africa has been shown to improve survival in high-mortality settings. The period after hospital discharge is a time of elevated risk unaddressed by current interventions and might provide an opportunity for targeting empirical azithromycin administration. We aimed to assess the efficacy of azithromycin administered at hospital discharge on risk of death and rehospitalisation in Kenyan children younger than 5 years. METHODS In this double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial, children were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive a 5-day course of azithromycin (oral suspension 10 mg/kg on day 1, followed by 5mg/kg per day on days 2-5) or identically appearing and tasting placebo at discharge from four hospitals in western Kenya. Children were eligible if they were aged 1-59 months at hospital discharge, weighed at least 2 kg, and had been admitted to hospital for any medical reason other than trauma, poisoning, or congenital anomaly. The primary outcome was death or rehospitalisation in the subsequent 6-month period in a modified intention-to-treat population, compared by randomisation group with Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier. Azithromycin resistance in Escherichia coli isolates from a random subset of children was compared by randomisation group with generalised estimating equations. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02414399. FINDINGS Between June 28, 2016, and Nov 4, 2019, 1400 children were enrolled in the trial at discharge from hospital, with 703 (50·2%) randomly assigned to azithromycin and 697 (49·8%) to placebo. Among the 1398 children included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis (702 in the azithromycin group and 696 in the placebo group), the incidence of death or rehospitalisation was 20·4 per 100 child-years in the azithromycin group and 22·5 per 100 child-years in the placebo group (adjusted hazard ratio 0·91, 95·5% CI 0·64-1·29, p=0·58). Azithromycin resistance was common in commensal E coli isolates from enrolled children before randomisation (37·7% of 406 isolates) despite only 3·7% of children having received a macrolide antibiotic during the hospitalisation. Azithromycin resistance was slightly higher at 3 months after randomisation in the azithromycin group (26·9%) than in the placebo group (19·1%; adjusted prevalence ratio 1·41, 95% CI 0·95-2·09, p=0·088), with no difference observed at 6 months (1·17, 0·78-1·76, p=0·44). INTERPRETATION We did not observe a significant benefit of a 5-day course of azithromycin delivered to children younger than 5 years at hospital discharge despite the overall high risk of mortality and rehospitalisation. These findings highlight the need for more research into mechanisms and interventions for prevention of morbidity and mortality in the post-discharge period. FUNDING Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Benson O Singa
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Centre for Clinical Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya; Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition Network, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Kirkby D Tickell
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition Network, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Christine J McGrath
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition Network, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Mary Amondi
- International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Joyce Otieno
- Centre for Clinical Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Elizabeth Akinyi
- Centre for Clinical Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Doreen Rwigi
- Centre for Clinical Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | | | - Ruth Nduati
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, University of Nairobi, Kenyatta National Hospital, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Liru Meshak
- Homa Bay Teaching and Referral Hospital, Homa Bay, Kenya
| | | | - Samuel Kariuki
- Centre for Microbiology Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Barbra A Richardson
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Grace C John-Stewart
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Departments of Pediatrics and Medicine-Allergy and Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Judd L Walson
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Departments of Pediatrics and Medicine-Allergy and Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition Network, Nairobi, Kenya
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24
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Seal AJ, Jelle M, Grijalva-Eternod CS, Mohamed H, Ali R, Fottrell E. Use of verbal autopsy for establishing causes of child mortality in camps for internally displaced people in Mogadishu, Somalia: a population-based, prospective, cohort study. LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2021; 9:e1286-e1295. [PMID: 34416214 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00254-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2019] [Revised: 05/12/2021] [Accepted: 05/18/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND People in humanitarian emergencies are likely to experience excess mortality but information on the causes of death is often unreliable or non-existent. This study aimed to provide evidence on the causes of death among children younger than 5 years in camps for internally displaced people in southern Somalia, during periods of protracted displacement and emergency influx amid the 2017 drought and health emergency. METHODS We did a prospective, cohort study in 25 camps in the Afgooye corridor, on the outskirts of Mogadishu, Somalia. All internally displaced children aged 6-59 months were included and followed up with monthly household visits by community health workers. Nutrition, health, and vaccination status were ascertained and verbal autopsy interviews were done with the caregivers of deceased children. We calculated death rates in these children and used verbal autopsy to establish the cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF). Bayesian InterVA software was used to assign likely causes to each death. FINDINGS Between March, 2016, and March, 2018, 3898 children were followed up. 153 deaths were recorded during 34 746 person-months of observation. The death rate among children younger than 5 years exceeded emergency thresholds (>2 deaths per 10 000 children per day), reaching a peak of seven deaths per 10 000 children per day during the emergency influx. Verbal autopsy data were gathered for 80% of deaths, and the CSMF for the three leading causes of death were diarrhoeal diseases (25·9%), measles (17·8%), and severe malnutrition (8·8%). Coverage of measles vaccination during the first 3 months of the emergency was 42% and the CSMF for measles doubled during the influx. During protracted displacement, symptoms that could be attributable to HIV/AIDS related deaths accounted for 1·6% of the CSMF. INTERPRETATION It is feasible to establish a health and nutrition surveillance system that ascertains causes of death, using verbal autopsy, in this humanitarian context. These data can inform policy, response planning, and priority setting. The high mortality rate from infectious diseases and malnutrition among children younger than 5 years suggests the need for strengthening a range of public health interventions, including vaccination and provision of water, sanitation, and hygiene. FUNDING UK Department of International Development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew J Seal
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Mohamed Jelle
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | | | | | - Raha Ali
- Concern Worldwide Somalia, Mogadishu, Somalia
| | - Edward Fottrell
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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25
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Adair T, Firth S, Phyo TPP, Bo KS, Lopez AD. Monitoring progress with national and subnational health goals by integrating verbal autopsy and medically certified cause of death data. BMJ Glob Health 2021; 6:bmjgh-2021-005387. [PMID: 34059494 PMCID: PMC8169488 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005387] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2021] [Revised: 04/12/2021] [Accepted: 04/19/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction The measurement of progress towards many Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and other health goals requires accurate and timely all-cause and cause of death (COD) data. However, existing guidance to countries to calculate these indicators is inadequate for populations with incomplete death registration and poor-quality COD data. We introduce a replicable method to estimate national and subnational cause-specific mortality rates (and hence many such indicators) where death registration is incomplete by integrating data from Medical Certificates of Cause of Death (MCCOD) for hospital deaths with routine verbal autopsy (VA) for community deaths. Methods The integration method calculates population-level cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) from the CSMFs of MCCODs and VAs weighted by estimated deaths in hospitals and the community. Estimated deaths are calculated by applying the empirical completeness method to incomplete death registration/reporting. The resultant cause-specific mortality rates are used to estimate SDG Indicator 23: mortality between ages 30 and 70 years from cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes. We demonstrate the method using nationally representative data in Myanmar, comprising over 42 000 VAs and 7600 MCCODs. Results In Myanmar in 2019, 89% of deaths were estimated to occur in the community. VAs comprised an estimated 70% of community deaths. Both the proportion of deaths in the community and CSMFs for the four causes increased with older age. We estimated that the probability of dying from any of the four causes between 30 and 70 years was 0.265 for men and 0.216 for women. This indicator is 50% higher if based on CSMFs from the integration of data sources than on MCCOD data from hospitals. Conclusion This integration method facilitates country authorities to use their data to monitor progress with national and subnational health goals, rather than rely on estimates made by external organisations. The method is particularly relevant given the increasing application of routine VA in country Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim Adair
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sonja Firth
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Khin Sandar Bo
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Alan D Lopez
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Hernández-Prado B, Rodríguez-Angulo EM, Palmisano EB, Ojeda-Rodríguez R, Ojeda-Baranda RJ, Andueza-Pecha MG, Johnson LM, Chen A, Johanns C, Marquez N, Kamath AM, Camarda JN, Flaxman AD. Factors associated with delays in the search for care in under-5 deaths in Yucatán, Mexico. SALUD PUBLICA DE MEXICO 2021; 63:498-508. [PMID: 34098595 PMCID: PMC9201850 DOI: 10.21149/12216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2020] [Accepted: 02/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We examined delays during the search for care and associations with mother, child, or health services characteristics, and with symptoms reported prior to death. MATERIALS AND METHODS Cross-sectional study compris-ing household interviews with 252 caregivers of children under-5 who died in the state of Yucatán, Mexico, during 2015-2016. We evaluated the three main delays: 1) time to identify symptoms and start search for care, 2) transport time to health facility, and 3) wait time at health facility. RESULTS Children faced important delays including a mean time to start the search for care of 4.1 days. The mean transport time to the first facility was longer for children enrolled in Seguro Popular and there were longer wait times at public facilities, especially among children who also experienced longer travel time. CONCLUSIONS Providing resources to enable caregiv-ers to access health services in a timely manner may reduce delays in seeking care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo Hernández-Prado
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Seattle, United States..
| | | | - Erin B Palmisano
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Seattle, United States..
| | - Ricardo Ojeda-Rodríguez
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán. Mérida, Mexico..
| | | | | | - Louisa M Johnson
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Seattle, United States..
| | - Alan Chen
- NYU Grossman School of Medicine, Department of Population Health. New York, United States..
| | - Casey Johanns
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Seattle, United States..
| | - Neal Marquez
- Department of Sociology, University of Washington. Seattle, United States..
| | - Aruna M Kamath
- Department of Anesthesiology, University of Washington. Seattle, United States..
| | - Joseph N Camarda
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Seattle, United States..
| | - Abraham D Flaxman
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Seattle, United States..
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Hart JD, Mahesh P, Kwa V, Reeve M, Chowdhury HR, Jilini G, Jagilly R, Kamoriki B, Ruskin R, Dakulala P, Ripa P, Frank D, Lei T, Adair T, McLaughlin D, Riley ID, Lopez AD. Diversity of epidemiological transition in the Pacific: Findings from the application of verbal autopsy in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2021; 11:100150. [PMID: 34327359 PMCID: PMC8315473 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2020] [Revised: 02/17/2021] [Accepted: 03/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cause of death data are essential for rational health planning yet are not routinely available in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Solomon Islands. Indirect estimation of cause of death patterns suggests these populations are epidemiologically similar, but such assessments are not based on direct evidence. METHODS Verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were conducted at three sites in PNG and nationwide in Solomon Islands. Training courses were also facilitated to improve data from medical certificates of cause of death (MCCODs) in both countries. Data were categorised into broad groups of endemic and emerging conditions to aid assessment of the epidemiological transition. FINDINGS Between 2017 and 2020, VAs were collected for 1,814 adult deaths in PNG and 819 adult deaths in Solomon Islands. MCCODs were analysed for 662 deaths in PNG and 1,408 deaths in Solomon Islands. The VA data suggest lower NCD mortality (48.8% versus 70.3%); higher infectious mortality (27.0% versus 18.3%) and higher injury mortality (24.5% versus 11.4%) in PNG compared to Solomon Islands. Higher infectious mortality in PNG was evident for both endemic and emerging infections. Higher NCD mortality in Solomon Islands reflected much higher emerging NCDs (43.6% vs 21.4% in PNG). A similar pattern was evident from the MCCOD data. INTERPRETATION The cause of death patterns suggested by VA and MCCOD indicate that PNG is earlier in its epidemiological transition than Solomon Islands, with relatively higher infectious mortality and lower NCD mortality. Injury mortality was also particularly high in PNG.This study was funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies.
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Affiliation(s)
- John D Hart
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia
| | - Pkb Mahesh
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia
| | - Viola Kwa
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia
| | - Matthew Reeve
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia
| | | | | | | | | | - Rodley Ruskin
- CRVS country coordinator, D4H Initiative, Solomon Islands
| | | | - Paulus Ripa
- Western Highlands Provincial Health Authority, Papua New Guinea
| | - Dale Frank
- Milne Bay Provincial Health Authority, Papua New Guinea
| | - Theresa Lei
- West New Britain Provincial Health Authority, Papua New Guinea
| | - Tim Adair
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia
| | - Deirdre McLaughlin
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia
| | - Ian D Riley
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia
| | - Alan D Lopez
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia
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Mikkelsen L, de Alwis S, Sathasivam S, Kumarapeli V, Tennakoon A, Karunapema P, Jayaratne K, Jayasuriya R, Gamage S, Hewapathirana R, Wadugedara R, Dissanayake M, Senanayake CH, Mahesh PKB, McLaughlin D, Lopez AD. Improving the Policy Utility of Cause of Death Statistics in Sri Lanka: An Empirical Investigation of Causes of Out-of-Hospital Deaths Using Automated Verbal Autopsy Methods. Front Public Health 2021; 9:591237. [PMID: 34123981 PMCID: PMC8187752 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.591237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2020] [Accepted: 04/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Setting public health policies and effectively monitoring the impact of health interventions requires accurate, timely and complete cause of death (CoD) data for populations. In Sri Lanka, almost half of all deaths occur outside hospitals, with questionable diagnostic accuracy, thus limiting their information content for policy. Objectives: To ascertain whether SmartVA is applicable in improving the specificity of cause of death data for out-of-hospital deaths in Sri Lanka, and hence enhance the value of these routinely collected data for informing public policy debates. Methods: SmartVA was applied to 2610 VAs collected between January 2017 and March 2019 in 22 health-unit-areas clustered in six districts. Around 350 community-health-workers and 50 supervisory-staffs were trained. The resulting distribution of Cause-Specific-Mortality-Fractions (CSMFs) was compared to data from the Registrar-General's-Department (RGD) for out-of-hospital deaths for the same areas, and to the Global-Burden-of-Disease (GBD) estimates for Sri Lanka. Results: Using SmartVA, for only 15% of deaths could a specific-cause not be assigned, compared with around 40% of out-of-hospital deaths currently assigned garbage codes with "very high" or "high" severity. Stroke (M: 31.6%, F: 35.4%), Ischaemic Heart Disease (M: 13.5%, F: 13.0%) and Chronic Respiratory Diseases (M: 15.4%, F: 10.8%) were identified as the three leading causes of home deaths, consistent with the ranking of GBD-Study for Sri Lanka for all deaths, but with a notably higher CSMF for stroke. Conclusions: SmartVA showed greater diagnostic specificity, applicability, acceptability in the Sri Lankan context. Policy formulation in Sri Lanka would benefit substantially with national-wide implementation of VAs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lene Mikkelsen
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Sunil de Alwis
- Ministry of Health, Nutrition and Indigenous Medicine, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | | | - Vindya Kumarapeli
- Ministry of Health, Nutrition and Indigenous Medicine, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Ajith Tennakoon
- Ministry of Health, Nutrition and Indigenous Medicine, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Palitha Karunapema
- Ministry of Health, Nutrition and Indigenous Medicine, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Kapila Jayaratne
- Ministry of Health, Nutrition and Indigenous Medicine, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Rajitha Jayasuriya
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, Australia
| | - Saman Gamage
- Ministry of Health, Nutrition and Indigenous Medicine, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | | | - Rangana Wadugedara
- Ministry of Health, Nutrition and Indigenous Medicine, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Manoj Dissanayake
- Ministry of Health, Nutrition and Indigenous Medicine, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | | | | | - Deirdre McLaughlin
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, Australia
| | - Alan D Lopez
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
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Mapoma CC, Munkombwe B, Mwango C, Bwalya BB, Kalindi A, Gona NP. Application of verbal autopsy in routine civil registration in Lusaka District of Zambia. BMC Health Serv Res 2021; 21:408. [PMID: 33933096 PMCID: PMC8088624 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-021-06427-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2021] [Accepted: 04/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Ascertaining the causes for deaths occurring outside health facilities is a significant problem in many developing countries where civil registration systems are not well developed or non-functional. Standardized and rigorous verbal autopsy methods is a potential solution to determine the cause of death. We conducted a demonstration project in Lusaka District of Zambia where verbal autopsy (VA) method was implemented in routine civil registration system. Methods About 3400 VA interviews were conducted for bodies “brought-in-dead” at Lusaka’s two major teaching hospital mortuaries using a SmartVA questionnaire between October 2017 and September 2018. Probable underlying causes of deaths using VA and cause-specific mortality fractions were determined.. Demographic characteristics were analyzed for each VA-ascertained cause of death. Results Opportunistic infections (OIs) associated with HIV/AIDS such as pneumonia and tuberculosis, and malaria were among leading causes of deaths among bodies “brought-in-dead”. Over 21.6 and 26.9% of deaths were attributable to external causes and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), respectively. The VA-ascertained causes of death varied by age-group and sex. External causes were more prevalent among males in middle ages (put an age range like 30–54 years old) and NCDs highly prevalent among those aged 55 years and older. Conclusions VA application in civil registration system can provide the much-needed cause of death information for non-facility deaths in countries with under-developed or non-functional civil registration systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- C Chabila Mapoma
- Department of Population Studies, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Brian Munkombwe
- International Statistics Program, Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Chomba Mwango
- Bloomberg Data for Health Initiative, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Bupe Bwalya Bwalya
- Department of Economics, Directorate of Research and Postgraduate Studies and School of Social Sciences, Mulungushi University, Main Campus, P.O. Box 80415, Kabwe, Zambia.
| | - Audrey Kalindi
- Department of Population Studies, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - N Philimon Gona
- College of Nursing and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts Boston, 100 Morrissey Boulevard, Boston, MA, 02125, USA
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Blanco A, Perez A, Casillas A, Cobos D. Extracting Cause of Death From Verbal Autopsy With Deep Learning Interpretable Methods. IEEE J Biomed Health Inform 2021; 25:1315-1325. [PMID: 32749982 DOI: 10.1109/jbhi.2020.3005769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
The international standard to ascertain the cause of death is medical certification. However, in many low and middle-income countries, the majority of deaths occur outside of health facilities. In these cases, Verbal Autopsy (VA), the narrative provided by a family member or friend together with a questionnaire is designed by the World Health Organization as the main information source. Until now technology allowed us to automatically analyze the responses of the VA questionnaire with the narrative captured by the interviewer excluded. Our work addresses this gap by developing a set of models for automatic Cause of Death (CoD) ascertainment in VAs with a focus on the textual information. Empirical results show that the open response conveys valuable information towards the ascertainment of the Cause of Death, and the combination of the closed-ended questions and the open response lead to the best results. Model interpretation capabilities position the Deep Learning models as the most encouraging choice.
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Joshi R, Hazard RH, Mahesh PKB, Mikkelsen L, Avelino F, Sarmiento C, Segarra A, Timbang T, Sinson F, Diango P, Riley I, Chowdhury H, Asuncion IL, Khanom G, Lopez AD. Improving cause of death certification in the Philippines: implementation of an electronic verbal autopsy decision support tool (SmartVA auto-analyse) to aid physician diagnoses of out-of-facility deaths. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:563. [PMID: 33752622 PMCID: PMC7986549 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-10542-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2020] [Accepted: 03/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The majority of deaths in the Philippines occur out-of-facility and require a medical certificate of cause of death by Municipal Health Officers (MHOs) for burial. MHOs lack a standardised certification process for out-of-facility deaths and when no medical records are available, certify a high proportion of ill-defined causes of death. We aimed to develop and introduce SmartVA Auto-Analyse, a verbal autopsy (VA) based electronic decision support tool in order to assist the MHOs in certifying out-of-facility deaths. Method We conducted a stakeholder consultation, process mapping and a pre-test to assess feasibility and acceptability of SmartVA Auto-Analyse. MHOs were first asked to conduct an open-ended interview from the family members of the deceased, and if they were not able to arrive at a diagnosis, continue the interview using the standardised SmartVA questionnaire. Auto-Analyse then presented the MHO with the three most likely causes of death. For the pilot, the intervention was scaled-up to 91 municipalities. We performed a mixed-methods evaluation using the cause of death data and group discussions with the MHOs. Results Of the 5649 deaths registered, Auto-Analyse was used to certify 4586 (81%). For the remaining 19%, doctors believed they could assign a cause of death based on the availability of medical records and the VA open narrative. When used, physicians used the Auto-Analyse diagnosis in 85% of cases to certify the cause of death. Only 13% of the deaths under the intervention had an undetermined cause of death. Group discussions identified two themes: Auto-Analyse standardized the certification of home deaths and assisted the MHOs to improve the quality of death certification. Conclusion Standardized VA combined with physician diagnosis using the SmartVA Auto-Analyse support tool was readily used by MHOs in the Philippines and can improve the quality of death certification of home deaths. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10542-0.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rohina Joshi
- The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. .,The George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India. .,School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
| | - R H Hazard
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | | | - L Mikkelsen
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - F Avelino
- Epidemiology Bureau, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Carmina Sarmiento
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - A Segarra
- Epidemiology Bureau, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - T Timbang
- Epidemiology Bureau, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - F Sinson
- Epidemiology Bureau, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Patrick Diango
- Epidemiology Bureau, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - I Riley
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - H Chowdhury
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Irma L Asuncion
- Epidemiology Bureau, Department of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - G Khanom
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Alan D Lopez
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
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Shawon MTH, Ashrafi SAA, Azad AK, Firth SM, Chowdhury H, Mswia RG, Adair T, Riley I, Abouzahr C, Lopez AD. Routine mortality surveillance to identify the cause of death pattern for out-of-hospital adult (aged 12+ years) deaths in Bangladesh: introduction of automated verbal autopsy. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:491. [PMID: 33706739 PMCID: PMC7952220 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-10468-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2020] [Accepted: 02/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In Bangladesh, a poorly functioning national system of registering deaths and determining their causes leaves the country without important information on which to inform health programming, particularly for the 85% of deaths that occur in the community. In 2017, an improved death registration system and automated verbal autopsy (VA) were introduced to 13 upazilas to assess the utility of VA as a routine source of policy-relevant information and to identify leading causes of deaths (COD) in rural Bangladesh. METHODS Data from 22,535 VAs, collected in 12 upazilas between October 2017 and August 2019, were assigned a COD using the SmartVA Analyze 2.0 computer algorithm. The plausibility of the VA results was assessed using a series of demographic and epidemiological checks in the Verbal Autopsy Interpretation, Performance and Evaluation Resource (VIPER) software tool. RESULTS Completeness of community death reporting was 65%. The vast majority (85%) of adult deaths were due to non-communicable diseases, with ischemic heart disease, stroke and chronic respiratory disease comprising about 60% alone. Leading COD were broadly consistent with Global Burden of Disease study estimates. CONCLUSIONS Routine VA collection using automated methods is feasible, can produce plausible results and provides critical information on community COD in Bangladesh. Routine VA and VIPER have potential application to countries with weak death registration systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Toufiq Hassan Shawon
- Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Abul Kalam Azad
- Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Sonja M Firth
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
| | - Hafizur Chowdhury
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | | | - Tim Adair
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Ian Riley
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Carla Abouzahr
- Data for Health Initiative, Vital Strategies, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Alan D Lopez
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
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Mwananyanda L, Gill CJ, MacLeod W, Kwenda G, Pieciak R, Mupila Z, Lapidot R, Mupeta F, Forman L, Ziko L, Etter L, Thea D. Covid-19 deaths in Africa: prospective systematic postmortem surveillance study. BMJ 2021; 372:n334. [PMID: 33597166 PMCID: PMC7887952 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.n334] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To directly measure the fatal impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in an urban African population. DESIGN Prospective systematic postmortem surveillance study. SETTING Zambia's largest tertiary care referral hospital. PARTICIPANTS Deceased people of all ages at the University Teaching Hospital morgue in Lusaka, Zambia, enrolled within 48 hours of death. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Postmortem nasopharyngeal swabs were tested via reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Deaths were stratified by covis-19 status, location, age, sex, and underlying risk factors. RESULTS 372 participants were enrolled between June and September 2020; PCR results were available for 364 (97.8%). SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 58/364 (15.9%) according to the recommended cycle threshold value of <40 and in 70/364 (19.2%) when expanded to any level of PCR detection. The median age at death among people with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 was 48 (interquartile range 36-72) years, and 69% (n=48) were male. Most deaths in people with covid-19 (51/70; 73%) occurred in the community; none had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 before death. Among the 19/70 people who died in hospital, six were tested before death. Among the 52/70 people with data on symptoms, 44/52 had typical symptoms of covid-19 (cough, fever, shortness of breath), of whom only five were tested before death. Covid-19 was identified in seven children, only one of whom had been tested before death. The proportion of deaths with covid-19 increased with age, but 76% (n=53) of people who died were aged under 60 years. The five most common comorbidities among people who died with covid-19 were tuberculosis (22; 31%), hypertension (19; 27%), HIV/AIDS (16; 23%), alcohol misuse (12; 17%), and diabetes (9; 13%). CONCLUSIONS Contrary to expectations, deaths with covid-19 were common in Lusaka. Most occurred in the community, where testing capacity is lacking. However, few people who died at facilities were tested, despite presenting with typical symptoms of covid-19. Therefore, cases of covid-19 were under-reported because testing was rarely done not because covid-19 was rare. If these data are generalizable, the impact of covid-19 in Africa has been vastly underestimated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lawrence Mwananyanda
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
- Right To Care – Zambia
- Contributed equally
| | - Christopher J Gill
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
- Contributed equally
| | - William MacLeod
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Geoffrey Kwenda
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Rachel Pieciak
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Zachariah Mupila
- ZPRIME Molecular Laboratory, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Rotem Lapidot
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Francis Mupeta
- Division of Internal Medicine, Infectious Diseases Section, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Leah Forman
- Biostatistics and Epidemiology Data Analytics Center, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Luunga Ziko
- Division of Internal Medicine, Infectious Diseases Section, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Lauren Etter
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Donald Thea
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
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Huang L, Yu J, Neal B, Liu Y, Yin X, Hao Z, Wu Y, Yan LL, Wu JH, Joshi R, Shi J, Feng X, Zhang J, Zhang Y, Zhang R, Zhou B, Li Z, Sun J, Zhao Y, Yu Y, Pearson SA, Chen Z, Tian M. Feasibility and validity of using death surveillance data and SmartVA for fact and cause of death in clinical trials in rural China: a substudy of the China salt substitute and stroke study (SSaSS). J Epidemiol Community Health 2020; 75:jech-2020-214063. [PMID: 33288656 DOI: 10.1136/jech-2020-214063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2020] [Revised: 10/08/2020] [Accepted: 11/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In rural China, mortality surveillance data may be an alternative to primary data collection in clinical trials; SmartVA (verbal autopsy) is also a potential alternative for endpoint adjudication. The feasibility and validity of both need to be assessed. METHODS We used mortality data from the first 24 months of the China Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS) trial and assessed the agreement between (1) mortality surveillance data and face-to-face visits for fact of death; (2) mortality surveillance data and SSaSS adjudication for causes of death; (3) SmartVA and SSaSS adjudication for causes of death; (4) cause-specific mortality fraction of different methods. Face-to-face visits and SSaSS adjudication were taken as reference methods. The agreement was measured by sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) across different 10th Revision of International Statistical Classification of Diseases chapters. RESULTS One thousand three hundred and sixty-five deaths were included. Mortality surveillance data had 82% sensitivity for fact of death and 81% sensitivity for causes of death, with substantial variances across different disease types and reasonable quality for circulatory death (91% sensitivity and 94% PPV). The sensitivity of SmartVA for causes of death was 61%, with reasonable quality for deaths of external causes of morbidity (90% sensitivity). The leading causes of death from different sources were the same with some variances in the fractions. CONCLUSION Using mortality surveillance data for fact of death in clinical trials need to account for under-reporting. A face-to-face visit to all participants at the completion of trials may be warranted. Neither mortality surveillance data nor SmartVA provided valid data source for endpoint events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liping Huang
- The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Jie Yu
- The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Department of Cardiology, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Bruce Neal
- The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Yishu Liu
- The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Xuejun Yin
- The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Zhixin Hao
- The George Institute for Global Health at Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China
| | - Yangfeng Wu
- The George Institute for Global Health at Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China
- Peking University Clinical Research Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Lijing L Yan
- The George Institute for Global Health at Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China
- Global Health Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, China
| | - Jason Hy Wu
- The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Rohina Joshi
- The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- The George Institute for Global Health, India, Hyderabad, India
| | - Jingpu Shi
- Department of Evidence-based Medicine, First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Xiangxian Feng
- School of Preventive Medicine, Changzhi Medical College, Changzhi, China
| | - Jianxin Zhang
- Department of Non-communicable Diseases, Center for Disease Control of Heibei, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Yuhong Zhang
- School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China
| | - Ruijuan Zhang
- School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China
| | - Bo Zhou
- Department of Evidence-based Medicine, First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Zhifang Li
- School of Preventive Medicine, Changzhi Medical College, Changzhi, China
| | - Jixin Sun
- Department of Non-communicable Diseases, Center for Disease Control of Heibei, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Yi Zhao
- School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China
| | - Yan Yu
- School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China
| | - Sallie-Anne Pearson
- Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Medicines Policy Research Unit, Centre for Big Data Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Randwick, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Zhengming Chen
- Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Maoyi Tian
- The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- The George Institute for Global Health at Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China
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Keenan JD, Arzika AM, Maliki R, Elh Adamou S, Ibrahim F, Kiemago M, Galo NF, Lebas E, Cook C, Vanderschelden B, Bailey RL, West SK, Porco TC, Lietman TM. Cause-specific mortality of children younger than 5 years in communities receiving biannual mass azithromycin treatment in Niger: verbal autopsy results from a cluster-randomised controlled trial. LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2020; 8:e288-e295. [PMID: 31981558 PMCID: PMC7025321 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(19)30540-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2019] [Revised: 10/31/2019] [Accepted: 12/03/2019] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Background The Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial found that biannual mass distribution of azithromycin to children younger than 5 years in Niger reduced the primary outcome of all-cause mortality by 18%. We aimed to determine the causes of mortality among deceased children using verbal autopsy. Methods In this 2-year cluster-randomised controlled trial, 594 community clusters in Niger were randomly allocated (1:1 ratio) to receive biannual mass distributions of either oral azithromycin (approximately 20 mg per kg of bodyweight) or placebo targeted to children aged 1–59 months. Participants, study investigators, and field workers were masked to treatment allocation. Between Nov 23, 2014, and July 31, 2017, 3615 child deaths were recorded by use of biannual house-to-house censuses, and verbal autopsies were done between May 26, 2015, and May 17, 2018, to identify cause of death. Cause-specific mortality, as assessed by verbal autopsy, was a prespecified secondary outcome. This trial is completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02047981. Findings Between Nov 23, 2014, and July 31, 2017, 303 communities (n=40 375 children at baseline) in Niger received mass azithromycin and 291 communities (n=35 747 children at baseline) received placebo. Treatment coverage was 90·3% (SD 10·6) in the azithromycin group and 90·4% (10·1) in the placebo group. No communities were lost to follow-up. In total, 1727 child deaths in the azithromycin group and 1888 child deaths in the placebo group were reported from the population censuses. Of these, the cause of death for 1566 (90·7%) children in the azithromycin group and 1735 (91·9%) children in the placebo group were ascertained by verbal autopsy interviews. In the azithromycin group, 437 (27·9%) deaths were due to malaria, 252 (16·1%) deaths were due to pneumonia, and 234 (14·9%) deaths were due to diarrhoea. In the placebo group, 493 (28·4%) deaths were due to malaria, 275 (15·9%) deaths were due to pneumonia, and 251 (14·5%) deaths were due to diarrhoea. Relative to communities that received placebo, child mortality in communities that received azithromycin was lower for malaria (incidence rate ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·66–0·92; p=0·0029), dysentery (0·65, 0·44–0·94; p=0·025), meningitis (0·67, 0·46–0·97; p=0·036), and pneumonia (0·83, 0·68–1·00; p=0·051). The distribution of causes of death did not differ significantly between the two study groups (p=0·98). Interpretation Mass azithromycin distribution resulted in approximately a third fewer deaths in children aged 1–59 months due to meningitis and dysentery, and a fifth fewer deaths due to malaria and pneumonia. The lack of difference in the distribution of causes of death between the azithromycin and placebo groups could be attributable to the broad spectrum of azithromycin activity and the study setting, in which most childhood deaths were due to infections. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy D Keenan
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Elodie Lebas
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Catherine Cook
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | - Robin L Bailey
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sheila K West
- Dana Center for Preventive Ophthalmology, Wilmer Eye Institute, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
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Kananura RM, Leone T, Nareeba T, Kajungu D, Waiswa P, Gjonca A. Under 10 mortality patterns, risk factors, and mechanisms in low resource settings of Eastern Uganda: An analysis of event history demographic and verbal social autopsy data. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0234573. [PMID: 32525931 PMCID: PMC7289412 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0234573] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2020] [Accepted: 05/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Globally, the under-10 years of age mortality has not been comprehensively studied. We applied the life-course perspective in the analysis and interpretation of the event history demographic and verbal autopsy data to examine when and why children die before their 10th birthday. Methods We analysed a decade (2005–2015) of event histories data on 22385 and 1815 verbal autopsies data collected by Iganga-Mayuge HDSS in eastern Uganda. We used the lifetable for mortality estimates and patterns, and Royston-Parmar survival analysis approach for mortality risk factors’ assessment. Results The under-10 and 5–9 years of age mortality probabilities were 129 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 123–370) per 1000 live births and 11 (95% CI = 7–26) per 1000 children aged 5–9 years, respectively. The top four causes of new-born mortality and stillbirth were antepartum maternal complications (31%), intrapartum-related causes including birth injury, asphyxia and obstructed labour (25%), Low Birth Weight (LBW) and prematurity (20%), and other unidentified perinatal mortality causes (18%). Malaria, protein deficiency including anaemia, diarrhoea or gastrointestinal, and acute respiratory infections were the major causes of mortality among those aged 0–9 years–contributing 88%, 88% and 46% of all causes of mortality for the post-neonatal, child and 5–9 years of age respectively. 33% of all causes of mortality among those aged 5–9 years was a share of Injuries (22%) and gastrointestinal (11%). Regarding the deterministic pattern, nearly 30% of the new-borns and sick children died without access to formal care. Access to the treatment for the top five morbidities was after 4 days of symptoms’ recognition. The childhood mortality risk factors were LBW, multiple births, having no partner, adolescence age, rural residence, low education level and belonging to a poor household, but their association was stronger among infants. Conclusions We have identified the vulnerable groups at risk of mortality as LBW children, multiple births, rural dwellers, those whose mother are of low socio-economic position, adolescents and unmarried. The differences in causes of mortalities between children aged 0–5 and 5–9 years were noted. These findings suggest for a strong life-course approach in the design and implementation of child health interventions that target pregnant women and children of all ages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rornald Muhumuza Kananura
- Department of International Development, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Health Policy Planning and Management, Makerere University School of Public Health, New Mulago Complex, Kampala, Uganda
- * E-mail: ,
| | - Tiziana Leone
- Department of International Development, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom
| | - Tryphena Nareeba
- Makerere University Centre for Health and Population Research (MUCHAP) and Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Iganga, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Dan Kajungu
- Makerere University Centre for Health and Population Research (MUCHAP) and Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Iganga, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Peter Waiswa
- Department of Health Policy Planning and Management, Makerere University School of Public Health, New Mulago Complex, Kampala, Uganda
- Global Health Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Arjan Gjonca
- Department of International Development, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom
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Yokobori Y, Matsuura J, Sugiura Y, Mutemba C, Nyahoda M, Mwango C, Kazhumbula L, Yuasa M, Chiluba C. Analysis of causes of death among brought-in-dead cases in a third-level Hospital in Lusaka, Republic of Zambia, using the tariff method 2.0 for verbal autopsy: a cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health 2020; 20:473. [PMID: 32272924 PMCID: PMC7147005 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-08575-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2019] [Accepted: 03/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Over one third of deaths in Zambian health facilities involve someone who has already died before arrival (i.e., Brough in Dead), and in most BiD cases, the CoD have not been fully analyzed. Therefore, this study was designed to evaluate the function of automated VA based on the Tariff Method 2.0 to identify the CoD among the BiD cases and the usefulness by comparing the data on the death notification form. METHODS The target site was one third-level hospital in the Republic of Zambia's capital city. All BiD cases who reached the target health facility from January to August 2017 were included. The deceased's closest relatives were interviewed using a structured VA questionnaire and the data were analyzed using the SmartVA to determine the CoD at the individual and population level. The CoD were compared with description on the death notification forms by using t-test and Cohen's kappa coefficient. RESULTS One thousand three hundred seventy-eight and 209 cases were included for persons aged 13 years and older (Adult) and those aged 1 month to 13 years old (Child), respectively. The top CoD for Adults were infectious diseases followed by non-communicable diseases and that for Child were infectious diseases, followed by accidents. The proportion of cases with a determined CoD was significantly higher when using the SmartVA (75% for Adult and 67% for Child) than the death notification form (61%). A proportion (42.7% for Adult and 46% for Child) of the CoD-determined cases matched in both sources, with a low concordance rate for Adult (kappa coefficient = 0.1385) and a good for Child(kappa coefficient = 0.635). CONCLUSIONS The CoD of the BiD cases were successfully analyzed using the SmartVA for the first time in Zambia. While there many erroneous descriptions on the death notification form, the SmartVA could determine the CoD among more BiD cases. Since the information on the death notification form is reflected in the national vital statistics, more accurate and complete CoD data are required. In order to strengthen the death registration system with accurate CoD, it will be useful to embed the SmartVA in Zambia's health information system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuta Yokobori
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM), 1-21-1, Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
- Ministry of Health (MoH), Zambia, Ndeke house, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Jun Matsuura
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM), 1-21-1, Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasuo Sugiura
- National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM), 1-21-1, Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Charles Mutemba
- Adult Hospital, University Teaching Hospital, Ridgeway Nationalist Road, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Martin Nyahoda
- Department of National Registration, Passport & Citizenship, Ministry of Home Affairs, Cnr Dedani Kimathi & Independence roads, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Chomba Mwango
- Department of National Registration, Passport & Citizenship, Ministry of Home Affairs, Cnr Dedani Kimathi & Independence roads, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Lloyd Kazhumbula
- Department of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Juntendo University, Hongo 2-1-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Motoyuki Yuasa
- Ministry of Health (MoH), Zambia, Ndeke house, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Clarence Chiluba
- Department of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Juntendo University, Hongo 2-1-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
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Mikkelsen L, Moesgaard K, Hegnauer M, Lopez AD. ANACONDA: a new tool to improve mortality and cause of death data. BMC Med 2020; 18:61. [PMID: 32146907 PMCID: PMC7061487 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01521-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2019] [Accepted: 02/11/2020] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The need to monitor the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and to have access to reliable and timely mortality data has created a strong demand in countries for tools that can assist them in this. ANACONDA (Analysis of National Causes of Death for Action) is a new tool developed for this purpose which allows countries to assess how accurate their mortality and cause of death are. Applying ANACONDA will increase confidence and capacity among data custodians in countries about their mortality data and will give them insight into quality problems that will assist the improvement process. METHODS ANACONDA builds on established epidemiological and demographic concepts to operationalise a series of 10 steps and numerous sub-steps to perform data checks. Extensive use is made of comparators to assess the plausibility of national mortality and cause of death statistics. The tool calculates a composite Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)) to measure how fit for purpose the data are. Extracts from analyses of country data are presented to show the types of outputs. RESULTS Each of the 10 steps provides insight into how well the current data is describing different aspects of the mortality situation in the country, e.g. who dies of what, the completeness of the reporting, and the amount and types of unusable cause of death codes. It further identifies the exact codes that should not be used by the certifying physicians and their frequency, which makes it possible to institute a focused correction procedure. Finally, the VSPI(Q) allows periodic monitoring of data quality improvements and identifies priorities for action to strengthen the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) system. CONCLUSIONS ANACONDA has demonstrated the potential to dramatically improve knowledge about disease patterns as well as the functioning of CRVS systems and has served as a platform for galvanising wider CRVS reforms in countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lene Mikkelsen
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria 3053 Australia
| | - Kim Moesgaard
- Institute of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Michael Hegnauer
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Alan D. Lopez
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria 3053 Australia
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Hazard RH, Buddhika MPK, Hart JD, Chowdhury HR, Firth S, Joshi R, Avelino F, Segarra A, Sarmiento DC, Azad AK, Ashrafi SAA, Bo KS, Kwa V, Lopez AD. Automated verbal autopsy: from research to routine use in civil registration and vital statistics systems. BMC Med 2020; 18:60. [PMID: 32146903 PMCID: PMC7061477 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01520-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2019] [Accepted: 02/11/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The majority of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) do not have adequate civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems to properly support health policy formulation. Verbal autopsy (VA), long used in research, can provide useful information on the cause of death (COD) in populations where physicians are not available to complete medical certificates of COD. Here, we report on the application of the SmartVA tool for the collection and analysis of data in several countries as part of routine CRVS activities. METHODS Data from VA interviews conducted in 4 of 12 countries supported by the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative, and at different stages of health statistical development, were analysed and assessed for plausibility: Myanmar, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Bangladesh and the Philippines. Analyses by age- and cause-specific mortality fractions were compared to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data by country. VA interviews were analysed using SmartVA-Analyze-automated software that was designed for use in CRVS systems. The method in the Philippines differed from the other sites in that the VA output was used as a decision support tool for health officers. RESULTS Country strategies for VA implementation are described in detail. Comparisons between VA data and country GBD estimates by age and cause revealed generally similar patterns and distributions. The main discrepancy was higher infectious disease mortality and lower non-communicable disease mortality at the PNG VA sites, compared to the GBD country models, which critical appraisal suggests may highlight real differences rather than implausible VA results. CONCLUSION Automated VA is the only feasible method for generating COD data for many populations. The results of implementation in four countries, reported here under the D4H Initiative, confirm that these methods are acceptable for wide-scale implementation and can produce reliable COD information on community deaths for which little was previously known.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riley H Hazard
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Mahesh P K Buddhika
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - John D Hart
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Hafizur R Chowdhury
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sonja Firth
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rohina Joshi
- The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW Sydney, Newtown, New South Wales, 2042, Australia
| | | | | | - Deborah Carmina Sarmiento
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | | | | | - Khin Sandar Bo
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Violoa Kwa
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Alan D Lopez
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
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Mamed SN, Ramos AMDO, Araújo VEMD, Jesus WSD, Ishitani LH, França EB. Profile of deaths from unspecified stroke after investigation of garbage codes in 60 cities in Brazil, 2017. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE EPIDEMIOLOGIA 2019; 22Suppl 3:e190013.supl.3. [PMID: 31800852 DOI: 10.1590/1980-549720190013.supl.3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2019] [Accepted: 08/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Unspecified stroke (UnST) is of great importance in mortality statistics, as it is the fourth leading cause of death in Brazil. The objective of this study was to identify the profile of reclassified causes of death after investigation of deaths caused by UnST in Brazil. METHODS All deaths registered as UnST in 2017 in the Mortality Information System (SIM) were considered as garbage codes. The specific causes, detected after investigation in 60 selected cities, were analyzed by age and sex. RESULTS Of the total deaths due to UnST identified in these 60 cities (n = 11,289), 25.8% were investigated. Of these, 56.3% were reclassified to ischemic stroke, 12.7% to hemorrhagic stroke, and 23.3% to other specific causes, such as diabetes and chronic kidney disease, in both sexes. DISCUSSION The higher proportion of deaths due to ischemic stroke in comparison to hemorrhagic stroke was expected. However, the detection of other specific causes outside the stroke group indicates possible quality problems in the filling of death certificate (DC). CONCLUSION The investigations allowed the identification of subgroups of deaths due to stroke. In addition to the research, however, it is important to conduct physician training in the adequate filling in of the DC, in order to improve estimates of specific stroke mortality, and to enable appropriate targeting of health actions and services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samira Nascimento Mamed
- Diretoria de Vigilância Epidemiológica, Secretaria Municipal de Saúde - Goiânia (GO), Brasil
| | - Ana Maria de Oliveira Ramos
- Serviço de Verificação de Óbito, Secretaria de Estado da Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Norte - Natal (RN), Brasil
| | | | - Wagner Santos de Jesus
- Superintendência de Vigilância em Saúde, Secretaria de Estado da Saúde do Tocantins - Palmas (TO), Brasil
| | - Lenice Harumi Ishitani
- Grupo de Pesquisas em Epidemiologia e Avaliação em Saúde, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil
| | - Elisabeth Barboza França
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Pública, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil
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Santos MRD, Cunha CCD, Ishitani LH, França EB. Deaths from sepsis: underlying causes of death after investigation in 60 Brazilian municipalities in 2017. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE EPIDEMIOLOGIA 2019; 22Suppl 3:e190012.supl.3. [PMID: 31800851 DOI: 10.1590/1980-549720190012.supl.3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2019] [Accepted: 08/27/2019] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Sepsis represents the occurrence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome triggered by the initial infection of an organ or system. When sepsis is certified as the cause of death, the first diagnosis is lost, leading to inaccurate information as to its origin. OBJECTIVE To analyze the underlying causes of death from sepsis after investigation in 60 Brazilian municipalities in 2017. METHODOLOGY All deaths recorded in the Mortality Information System (SIM) as sepsis in 2017 were selected, and the proportions of reclassified deaths were calculated based on the results of research conducted in hospitals and other health services. RESULTS Of the 6,486 deaths from sepsis that occurred in the 60 municipalities, 1,584 (24.4%) were investigated, and of these, 1,308 (82.6%) were reclassified with other underlying causes. Individuals aged from 70 to 89 years old showed the highest concentration in the records, with 49.3% of cases. More than 60% of the deaths from sepsis reclassified after the investigation had chronic non-communicable diseases as underlying causes (65.6%), with diabetes being the most common specific cause in this group. Communicable diseases (9.6%) and external causes (5.6%) such as falls were also detected as underlying causes. CONCLUSION The investigation of deaths from sepsis made it possible to identify the true causes of death and the proportions of reclassification. This information will improve the quality of mortality data and support the planning of public health actions in Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mayara Rocha Dos Santos
- Grupo de Pesquisas em Epidemiologia e Avaliação em Saúde, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil
| | - Carolina Cândida da Cunha
- Grupo de Pesquisas em Epidemiologia e Avaliação em Saúde, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil
| | - Lenice Harumi Ishitani
- Grupo de Pesquisas em Epidemiologia e Avaliação em Saúde, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil
| | - Elisabeth Barboza França
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Pública, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil
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Dandona R, Kumar GA, Bhattacharya D, Akbar M, Atmavilas Y, Nanda P, Dandona L. Distinct mortality patterns at 0-2 days versus the remaining neonatal period: results from population-based assessment in the Indian state of Bihar. BMC Med 2019; 17:140. [PMID: 31319860 PMCID: PMC6639919 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-019-1372-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2019] [Accepted: 06/18/2019] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The objectives of this study were to understand the differences in mortality rate, risk factors for mortality, and cause of death distribution in three neonatal age sub-groups (0-2, 3-7, and 8-27 days) and assess the change in mortality rate with previous assessments to inform programmatic decision-making in the Indian state of Bihar, a large state with a high burden of newborn deaths. METHODS Detailed interviews were conducted in a representative sample of 23,602 live births between January and December 2016 (96.2% participation) in Bihar state. We estimated the neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for the three age sub-groups and explored the association of these deaths with a variety of risk factors using a hierarchical logistic regression model approach. Verbal autopsies were conducted using the PHMRC questionnaire and the cause of death assigned using the SmartVA automated algorithm. Change in NMR from 2011 to 2016 was estimated by comparing it with a previous assessment. RESULTS The NMR 0-2-day, 3-7-day, and 8-27-day mortality estimates in 2016 were 24.7 (95% CI 21.8-28.0), 13.2 (11.1 to 15.7), 5.8 (4.4 to 7.5), and 5.8 (4.5 to 7.5) per 1000 live births, respectively. A statistically significant reduction of 23.3% (95% CI 9.2% to 37.3) was seen in NMR from 2011 to 2016, driven by a reduction of 35.3% (95% CI 18.4% to 52.2) in 0-2-day mortality. In the final regression model, the highest odds for mortality in 0-2 days were related to the gestation period of ≤ 8 months (OR 16.5, 95% CI 11.9-22.9) followed by obstetric complications, no antiseptic cord care, and delivery at a private health facility or home. The 3-7- and 8-27-day mortality was driven by illness in the neonatal period (OR 10.33, 95% CI 6.31-16.90, and OR 4.88, 95% CI 3.13-7.61, respectively) and pregnancy with multiple foetuses (OR 5.15, 95% CI 2.39-11.10, and OR 11.77, 95% CI 6.43-21.53, respectively). Birth asphyxia (61.1%) and preterm delivery (22.1%) accounted for most of 0-2-day deaths; pneumonia (34.5%), preterm delivery (33.7%), and meningitis/sepsis (20.1%) accounted for the majority of 3-7-day deaths; meningitis/sepsis (30.6%), pneumonia (29.1%), and preterm delivery (26.2%) were the leading causes of death at 8-27 days. CONCLUSIONS To our knowledge, this is the first study to report a detailed neonatal epidemiology by age sub-groups for a major Indian state, which has highlighted the distinctly different mortality rate, risk factors, and causes of death at 0-2 days versus the rest of the neonatal period. Monitoring mortality at 0-2 and 3-7 days separately in the traditional early neonatal period of 0-7 days would enable more effective programming to reduce neonatal mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rakhi Dandona
- Public Health Foundation of India, Sector 44, Institutional Area, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India. .,Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Sector 44, Institutional Area, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | | | - Md Akbar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Sector 44, Institutional Area, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - Yamini Atmavilas
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, India Country Office, New Delhi, India
| | - Priya Nanda
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, India Country Office, New Delhi, India
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Public Health Foundation of India, Sector 44, Institutional Area, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India.,Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
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Li ZR, McCormick TH. An Expectation Conditional Maximization approach for Gaussian graphical models. J Comput Graph Stat 2019; 28:767-777. [PMID: 33033426 PMCID: PMC7540244 DOI: 10.1080/10618600.2019.1609976] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2017] [Revised: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 04/09/2019] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
Bayesian graphical models are a useful tool for understanding dependence relationships among many variables, particularly in situations with external prior information. In high-dimensional settings, the space of possible graphs becomes enormous, rendering even state-of-the-art Bayesian stochastic search computationally infeasible. We propose a deterministic alternative to estimate Gaussian and Gaussian copula graphical models using an Expectation Conditional Maximization (ECM) algorithm, extending the EM approach from Bayesian variable selection to graphical model estimation. We show that the ECM approach enables fast posterior exploration under a sequence of mixture priors, and can incorporate multiple sources of information.
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Richard Li Z, McCormick TH, Clark SJ. Bayesian Joint Spike-and-Slab Graphical Lasso. PROCEEDINGS OF MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH 2019; 97:3877-3885. [PMID: 33521648 PMCID: PMC7845917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
In this article, we propose a new class of priors for Bayesian inference with multiple Gaussian graphical models. We introduce Bayesian treatments of two popular procedures, the group graphical lasso and the fused graphical lasso, and extend them to a continuous spike-and-slab framework to allow self-adaptive shrinkage and model selection simultaneously. We develop an EM algorithm that performs fast and dynamic explorations of posterior modes. Our approach selects sparse models efficiently and automatically with substantially smaller bias than would be induced by alternative regularization procedures. The performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through simulation and two real data examples.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zehang Richard Li
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Tyler H. McCormick
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Samuel J. Clark
- Department of Sociology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA
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Cunha CCD, Vasconcelos AMN, Souza MDFMD, França E. Avaliação da investigação de óbitos por causas mal definidas no estado da Bahia, Brasil, em 2010. CIENCIA & SAUDE COLETIVA 2019; 24:1831-1844. [DOI: 10.1590/1413-81232018245.14852017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2017] [Accepted: 08/03/2017] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Resumo A investigação de óbitos por causas mal definidas (CMD) tem sido uma estratégia utilizada pelos serviços de saúde para redução do percentual destes óbitos. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a adesão dos municípios na utilização de formulários preconizados na investigação de óbitos por CMD e o impacto destas investigações na redução percentual desses óbitos no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade. Analisou-se a utilização dos formulários Investigação do Óbito com Causa Mal Definida (IOCMD) e autópsia verbal (AV), e o percentual de reclassificação da causa básica (CB) de morte após as investigações, em uma amostra probabilística de 27 municípios no Estado da Bahia e a capital Salvador, no ano de 2010. Dos 27 municípios da amostra, aproximadamente 50% investigaram os óbitos por CMD utilizando-se os formulários preconizados. Foram identificados 1092 óbitos por CMD, dos quais 53,1% foram investigados: em 40,5% dos casos utilizou-se apenas o formulário IOCMD, apenas o formulário AV em 15,3%, e ambos os formulários em 14,3% dos casos. A investigação dos óbitos por CMD possibilitou a redução do percentual desses óbitos de 16,5% para 9,9%, e mostrou-se mais efetiva quando realizada utilizando-se os formulários preconizados.
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de Savigny D, Riley I, Chandramohan D, Odhiambo F, Nichols E, Notzon S, AbouZahr C, Mitra R, Cobos Muñoz D, Firth S, Maire N, Sankoh O, Bronson G, Setel P, Byass P, Jakob R, Boerma T, Lopez AD. Integrating community-based verbal autopsy into civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS): system-level considerations. Glob Health Action 2018; 10:1272882. [PMID: 28137194 PMCID: PMC5328373 DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2017.1272882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Reliable and representative cause of death (COD) statistics are essential to inform public health policy, respond to emerging health needs, and document progress towards Sustainable Development Goals. However, less than one-third of deaths worldwide are assigned a cause. Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems in low- and lower-middle-income countries are failing to provide timely, complete and accurate vital statistics, and it will still be some time before they can provide physician-certified COD for every death. Proposals: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a method to ascertain the probable COD and, although imperfect, it is the best alternative in the absence of medical certification. There is extensive experience with VA in research settings but only a few examples of its use on a large scale. Data collection using electronic questionnaires on mobile devices and computer algorithms to analyse responses and estimate probable COD have increased the potential for VA to be routinely applied in CRVS systems. However, a number of CRVS and health system integration issues should be considered in planning, piloting and implementing a system-wide intervention such as VA. These include addressing the multiplicity of stakeholders and sub-systems involved, integration with existing CRVS work processes and information flows, linking VA results to civil registration records, information technology requirements and data quality assurance. Conclusions: Integrating VA within CRVS systems is not simply a technical undertaking. It will have profound system-wide effects that should be carefully considered when planning for an effective implementation. This paper identifies and discusses the major system-level issues and emerging practices, provides a planning checklist of system-level considerations and proposes an overview for how VA can be integrated into routine CRVS systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Don de Savigny
- a Department of Epidemiology and Public Health , Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute , Basel , Switzerland.,b University of Basel , Basel , Switzerland.,c Melbourne School of Population and Global Health , University of Melbourne , Carlton , Australia
| | - Ian Riley
- c Melbourne School of Population and Global Health , University of Melbourne , Carlton , Australia
| | - Daniel Chandramohan
- d Department of Disease Control , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK
| | - Frank Odhiambo
- e African Field Epidemiology Network (AFENET) , Kisumu , Kenya
| | - Erin Nichols
- f National Centre for Health Statistics , Centres for Disease Control and Prevention , Hyattsville , MD , USA
| | - Sam Notzon
- f National Centre for Health Statistics , Centres for Disease Control and Prevention , Hyattsville , MD , USA
| | | | - Raj Mitra
- h Africa Centre for Statistics , United Nations Economic Commission for Africa , Addis Ababa , Ethiopia
| | - Daniel Cobos Muñoz
- a Department of Epidemiology and Public Health , Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute , Basel , Switzerland.,b University of Basel , Basel , Switzerland
| | - Sonja Firth
- c Melbourne School of Population and Global Health , University of Melbourne , Carlton , Australia
| | - Nicolas Maire
- a Department of Epidemiology and Public Health , Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute , Basel , Switzerland.,b University of Basel , Basel , Switzerland
| | - Osman Sankoh
- i INDEPTH Network , Accra , Ghana.,j School of Public Health , University of Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa
| | | | | | - Peter Byass
- l WHO Collaborating Centre for Verbal Autopsy, Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine , Umeå University , Umeå , Sweden.,m MRC-Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health , University of Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa
| | - Robert Jakob
- n Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems , World Health Organization , Geneva , Switzerland
| | - Ties Boerma
- n Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems , World Health Organization , Geneva , Switzerland
| | - Alan D Lopez
- c Melbourne School of Population and Global Health , University of Melbourne , Carlton , Australia
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Hazard RH, Alam N, Chowdhury HR, Adair T, Alam S, Streatfield PK, Riley ID, Lopez AD. Comparing tariff and medical assistant assigned causes of death from verbal autopsy interviews in Matlab, Bangladesh: implications for a health and demographic surveillance system. Popul Health Metr 2018; 16:10. [PMID: 29945624 PMCID: PMC6020332 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-018-0169-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2017] [Accepted: 06/20/2018] [Indexed: 10/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Deaths in developing countries often occur outside health facilities, making it extremely difficult to gather reliable cause of death (COD) information. Automated COD assignment using a verbal autopsy instrument (VAI) has been proposed as a reliable and cost-effective alternative to traditional physician-certified verbal autopsy, but its performance is still being evaluated. The purpose of this study was to compare the similarity of diagnosis by Medical Assistants (MA) in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) with the SmartVA Analyze 1.2 (Tariff 2.0) diagnosis. METHODS This study took place between January 2011 and April 2014 in Matlab, Bangladesh. MA with 3 years of medical training assigned COD to Matlab residents by reviewing the information collected using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) long-form VAI. Smart VA Analyze 1.2 automatically assigned COD using the same questionnaire. COD agreement and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were compared for MA and Tariff. RESULTS Of the 4969 verbal autopsy cases reviewed, 4328 were adults, 296 were children, and 345 were neonates. Cohen's kappa was 0.38 (0.36, 0.40) for adults, 0.43 (0.38, 0.49) for children, and 0.27 (0.22, 0.33) for neonates. For adults, the top two COD for MA were stroke (29.6%) and ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (14.2%) and for Tariff these were stroke (32.0%) and IHD (14.0%). For children, the top two COD for MA were drowning (33.5%) and pneumonia (13.2%) and for Tariff these were also drowning (36.8%) and pneumonia (12.4%). For neonates, the top two COD for MA were birth asphyxia (41.2%) and meningitis/sepsis (22.3%) and for Tariff these were birth asphyxia (37.0%) and preterm delivery (30.9%). CONCLUSION The CSMFs for Tariff and MA showed very close agreement across all age categories but some differences were observed for neonate preterm delivery and meningitis/sepsis. Given the known advantages of automated methods over physician certified verbal autopsy, the SmartVA software, incorporating the shortened VAI questionnaire and Tariff 2.0, could serve as a cost-effective alternative to Matlab MA to routinely collect and analyze verbal autopsy data in a HDSS to generate essential population level COD data for planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riley H Hazard
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
| | - Nurul Alam
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Tim Adair
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Saidul Alam
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Ian Douglas Riley
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Alan D Lopez
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
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Stalled decline in infant mortality among Palestine refugees in the Gaza Strip since 2006. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0197314. [PMID: 29897912 PMCID: PMC5999100 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0197314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2017] [Accepted: 04/29/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has periodically estimated infant mortality rates (IMR) among Palestine refugees in the Gaza Strip (Gaza). These surveys have recorded a decline from 127 per 1000 live births in 1960 to 20.2 in 2006. Thereafter, a survey revealed an IMR of 22.4 in 2011. Alerted by these findings, a follow up survey was conducted in 2015 to further assess the trend of IMR. METHODS We used the same preceding-birth technique as in previous surveys to estimate IMR and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) per 1000 live births. All multiparous mothers who came to the 22 UNRWA health centers to register their last-born child for immunization were asked if their preceding child was alive or dead. We based our target sample size on the previous IMR of 22.4 and we interviewed 3126 mothers from September to November 2015. FINDINGS The third survey estimated mortality rates in 2013. The IMR was 22.7 (95% CI 17.2-28.1) per 1000 live births. IMR did not decline since the estimated IMR of 20.2 (15.3-25.1) per 1000 live births in 2006 and 22.4 (16.4-28.3) per 1000 live births in 2011. NMR was 16.1 (11.6-20.7) per 1000 live births, which was not statistically significantly different from 2006 (12.1 (8.7-16.4)), and was lower than in 2011 (20.3 (15.3-26.2)). CONCLUSION The estimated mortality rate in infants of Palestine refugees in Gaza has not declined since 2006. The stagnation of infant mortality rates indicates that further efforts are needed to investigate causes for this stagnation and ways of addressing the potentially preventable causes among Palestine refugee children in Gaza.
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Dandona R, Kumar GA, Kharyal A, George S, Akbar M, Dandona L. Mortality due to snakebite and other venomous animals in the Indian state of Bihar: Findings from a representative mortality study. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0198900. [PMID: 29879197 PMCID: PMC5991745 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0198900] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2018] [Accepted: 05/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Animal bites and stings contribute significantly to mortality in certain parts of the world. India accounts for the highest number of snakebites and related mortality globally. We report on mortality due to bite or sting of a venomous animal from a population-based study in the Indian state of Bihar which estimated the causes of death using verbal autopsy. Methodology/principal findings Interviews were conducted for all deaths that occurred from January 2012 to March 2014 in 109,689 households (87.1% participation) covering 627,658 population in 1,017 clusters representative of the state using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium shortened verbal autopsy questionnaire. Cause of death was assigned using the SmartVA automated algorithm. The annualized mortality rate per 100,000 population due to snakebite, scorpion sting and other animals adjusted for age, sex and urban-rural population distribution of the state; and detailed contextual information on snakebites are reported. Deaths due to bite/sting of a venomous animal accounted for 10.7% of all deaths due to unintentional injuries, with an adjusted mortality rate of 6.2 (95% CI 6.0–6.3) per 100,000 population. The adjusted snakebite mortality rate was 4.4 (95% CI 4.3–4.6) which was significantly higher in the rural areas (4.8, 95% CI 4.7–5.0) and in females (5.5, 95% CI 5.3–5.7). Snakebites accounted for 7.6% of all unintentional injury deaths across all ages but for 33.3% of the deaths in 10–14 years age group. A similar proportion of snakebite deaths occurred while sleeping (30.2%), playing (30.2%) and during field/outdoor activities (27.9%). In these cases, 8.2% people were already dead when found, 34.7% had died before treatment could be provided, and 28 (57.1%) had died post treatment among whom 46.4% had sought treatment at a health facility, 25% with a traditional healer, and the rest from both. Death before reaching a health provider, non-availability of medicines or doctor, referral patterns, and sex-differentials in the context of snakebite deaths are reported. None of the verbatim specifically mentioned anti-venom being used for treatment. The adjusted mortality rate for scorpion sting was 0.9 (95% CI 0.8–0.9). Conclusions The findings from this large representative sample documents the magnitude of snakebite mortality in Bihar and highlight the circumstances surrounding the snakebite events that could facilitate prevention and intervention opportunities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rakhi Dandona
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - G. Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - Archana Kharyal
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - Sibin George
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - Md Akbar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
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Dandona R, Kumar GA, George S, Kumar A, Dandona L. Risk profile for drowning deaths in children in the Indian state of Bihar: results from a population-based study. Inj Prev 2018; 25:364-371. [PMID: 29778993 PMCID: PMC6839727 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2018-042743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2018] [Revised: 04/23/2018] [Accepted: 04/24/2018] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We report on incidence of drowning deaths and related contextual factors in children from a population-based study in the Indian state of Bihar which estimated the causes of death using verbal autopsy (VA). METHODS Interviews were conducted for deaths in 1-14 years population that occurred from January 2012 to March 2014 in 109 689 households (87.1% participation) in 1017 clusters representative of the state. The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium shortened VA questionnaire was used for interview and cause of death was assigned using the SmartVA automated algorithm. The annualised unintentional drowning death incidence, activity prior to drowning, the body of water where drowning death had occurred and contextual information are reported. FINDINGS The survey covered 224 077 children aged 1-14 years. Drowning deaths accounted for 7.2%, 12.5% and 5.8% of all deaths in 1-4, 5-9 and 10-14 years age groups, respectively. The adjusted incidence of drowning deaths was 14.3 (95% CI 14.0 to 14.7) per 100 000 children, with it being higher in urban (16.1, 95% CI 14.8 to 17.3) areas. Nearly half of the children drowned in a river (5.9, 95% CI 5.6 to 6.1) followed by in a pond (2.8, 95% CI 2.6 to 2.9). Drowning death incidence was the highest while playing (5.1, 95% CI 4.9 to 5.4) and bathing (4.0, 95% CI 3.8 to 4.2) with the former accounting for more deaths in 1-4 years age group. Sixty per cent of children were already dead when found. None of these deaths were reported to the civil registration system to obtain death certificate. INTERPRETATION The findings from this large representative sample of children document the magnitude of and variations in unintentional drowning deaths in Bihar. Urgent targeted drowning interventions are needed to address the risk in children. Gross under-reporting of drowning deaths in children in India needs attention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rakhi Dandona
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India.,Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Sibin George
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Amit Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India.,Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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