Identifying potential causal effects of age at menarche: a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study

Socioeconomic traits and the risk of Barrett’s esophagus and gastroesophageal reflux disease: A Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Previous observational studies have shown that the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is associated with socioeconomic status. However, due to the methodological limitations of traditional observational studies, it is challenging to definitively establish causality.

AIM

To explore the causal relationship between the prevalence of these conditions and socioeconomic status using Mendelian randomization (MR).

METHODS

We initially screened single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to serve as proxies for eight socioeconomic status phenotypes for univariate MR analysis. The inverse variance weighted (IVW) method was used as the primary analytical method to estimate the causal relationship between the eight socioeconomic status phenotypes and the risk of GERD and BE. We then collected combinations of SNPs as composite proxies for the eight socioeconomic phenotypes to perform multivariate MR (MVMR) analyses based on the IVW MVMR model. Furthermore, a two-step MR mediation analysis was used to examine the potential mediation of the associations by body mass index, major depressive disorder (MDD), smoking, alcohol consumption, and sleep duration.

RESULTS

The study identified three socioeconomic statuses that had a significant impact on GERD. These included household income [odds ratio (OR): 0.46; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.31-0.70], education attainment (OR: 0.23; 95%CI: 0.18-0.29), and the Townsend Deprivation Index at recruitment (OR: 1.57; 95%CI: 1.04-2.37). These factors were found to independently and predominantly influence the genetic causal effect of GERD. Furthermore, the mediating effect of educational attainment on GERD was found to be mediated by MDD (proportion mediated: 10.83%). Similarly, the effect of educational attainment on BE was mediated by MDD (proportion mediated: 10.58%) and the number of cigarettes smoked per day (proportion mediated: 3.50%). Additionally, the mediating effect of household income on GERD was observed to be mediated by sleep duration (proportion mediated: 9.75%)

CONCLUSION

This MR study shed light on the link between socioeconomic status and GERD or BE, providing insights for the prevention of esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions.

Socioeconomic traits and the risk of Barrett’s esophagus and gastroesophageal reflux disease: A Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Previous observational studies have shown that the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is associated with socioeconomic status. However, due to the methodological limitations of traditional observational studies, it is challenging to definitively establish causality.

AIM

To explore the causal relationship between the prevalence of these conditions and socioeconomic status using Mendelian randomization (MR).

METHODS

We initially screened single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to serve as proxies for eight socioeconomic status phenotypes for univariate MR analysis. The inverse variance weighted (IVW) method was used as the primary analytical method to estimate the causal relationship between the eight socioeconomic status phenotypes and the risk of GERD and BE. We then collected combinations of SNPs as composite proxies for the eight socioeconomic phenotypes to perform multivariate MR (MVMR) analyses based on the IVW MVMR model. Furthermore, a two-step MR mediation analysis was used to examine the potential mediation of the associations by body mass index, major depressive disorder (MDD), smoking, alcohol consumption, and sleep duration.

RESULTS

The study identified three socioeconomic statuses that had a significant impact on GERD. These included household income [odds ratio (OR): 0.46; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.31-0.70], education attainment (OR: 0.23; 95%CI: 0.18-0.29), and the Townsend Deprivation Index at recruitment (OR: 1.57; 95%CI: 1.04-2.37). These factors were found to independently and predominantly influence the genetic causal effect of GERD. Furthermore, the mediating effect of educational attainment on GERD was found to be mediated by MDD (proportion mediated: 10.83%). Similarly, the effect of educational attainment on BE was mediated by MDD (proportion mediated: 10.58%) and the number of cigarettes smoked per day (proportion mediated: 3.50%). Additionally, the mediating effect of household income on GERD was observed to be mediated by sleep duration (proportion mediated: 9.75%)

CONCLUSION

This MR study shed light on the link between socioeconomic status and GERD or BE, providing insights for the prevention of esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions.

Different effects of 24 dietary intakes on gastroesophageal reflux disease: A mendelian randomization

BACKGROUND

In observational studies, dietary intakes are associated with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD).

AIM

To conduct a two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to determine whether those associations are causal.

METHODS

To explore the relationship between dietary intake and the risk of GERD, we extracted appropriate single nucleotide polymorphisms from genome-wide association study data on 24 dietary intakes. Three methods were adopted for data analysis: Inverse variance weighting, weighted median methods, and MR-Egger's method. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate the causal association between dietary intake and GERD.

RESULTS

Our univariate Mendelian randomization (UVMR) results showed significant evidence that pork intake (OR, 2.83; 95%CI: 1.76-4.55; P = 1.84 × 10-5), beer intake (OR, 2.70, 95%CI: 2.00-3.64; P = 6.54 × 10-11), non-oily fish intake (OR, 2.41; 95%CI: 1.49-3.91; P = 3.59 × 10-4) have a protective effect on GERD. In addition, dried fruit intake (OR, 0.37; 95%CI: 0.27-0.50; 6.27 × 10-11), red wine intake (OR, 0.34; 95%CI: 0.25-0.47; P = 1.90 × 10-11), cheese intake (OR, 0.46; 95%CI: 0.39-0.55; P =3.73 × 10-19), bread intake (OR, 0.72; 95%CI: 0.56-0.92; P = 0.0009) and cereal intake (OR, 0.45; 95%CI: 0.36-0.57; P = 2.07 × 10-11) were negatively associated with the risk of GERD. There was a suggestive association for genetically predicted coffee intake (OR per one SD increase, 1.22, 95%CI: 1.03-1.44; P = 0.019). Multivariate Mendelian randomization further confirmed that dried fruit intake, red wine intake, cheese intake, and cereal intake directly affected GERD. In contrast, the impact of pork intake, beer intake, non-oily fish intake, and bread intake on GERD was partly driven by the common risk factors for GERD. However, after adjusting for all four elements, there was no longer a suggestive association between coffee intake and GERD.

CONCLUSION

This study provides MR evidence to support the causal relationship between a broad range of dietary intake and GERD, providing new insights for the treatment and prevention of GERD.

Iron status and sarcopenia-related traits: a bi-directional Mendelian randomization study

Although serum iron status and sarcopenia are closely linked, the presence of comprehensive evidence to establish a causal relationship between them remains insufficient. The objective of this study is to employ Mendelian randomization techniques to clarify the association between serum iron status and sarcopenia. We conducted a bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to investigate the potential causal relationship between iron status and sarcopenia. MR analyses were performed using inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR-Egger, and weighted median methods. Additionally, sensitivity analyses were conducted to verify the reliability of the causal association results. Then, we harvested a combination of SNPs as an integrated proxy for iron status to perform a MVMR analysis based on IVW MVMR model. UVMR analyses based on IVW method identified causal effect of ferritin on appendicular lean mass (ALM, β = - 0.051, 95% CI - 0.072, - 0.031, p = 7.325 × 10-07). Sensitivity analyses did not detect pleiotropic effects or result fluctuation by outlying SNPs in the effect estimates of four iron status on sarcopenia-related traits. After adjusting for PA, the analysis still revealed that each standard deviation higher genetically predicted ferritin was associated with lower ALM (β = - 0.054, 95% CI - 0.092, - 0.015, p = 0.006). Further, MVMR analyses determined a predominant role of ferritin (β = - 0.068, 95% CI - 0.12, - 0.017, p = 9.658 × 10-03) in the associations of iron status with ALM. Our study revealed a causal association between serum iron status and sarcopenia, with ferritin playing a key role in this relationship. These findings contribute to our understanding of the complex interplay between iron metabolism and muscle health.

Assessing causal links between age at menarche and adolescent mental health: a Mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND

The timing of puberty may have an important impact on adolescent mental health. In particular, earlier age at menarche has been associated with elevated rates of depression in adolescents. Previous research suggests that this relationship may be causal, but replication and an investigation of whether this effect extends to other mental health domains is warranted.

METHODS

In this Registered Report, we triangulated evidence from different causal inference methods using a new wave of data (N = 13,398) from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study. We combined multiple regression, one- and two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), and negative control analyses (using pre-pubertal symptoms as outcomes) to assess the causal links between age at menarche and different domains of adolescent mental health.

RESULTS

Our results supported the hypothesis that earlier age at menarche is associated with elevated depressive symptoms in early adolescence based on multiple regression (β =  - 0.11, 95% CI [- 0.12, - 0.09], pone-tailed < 0.01). One-sample MR analyses suggested that this relationship may be causal (β =  - 0.07, 95% CI [- 0.13, 0.00], pone-tailed = 0.03), but the effect was small, corresponding to just a 0.06 standard deviation increase in depressive symptoms with each earlier year of menarche. There was also some evidence of a causal relationship with depression diagnoses during adolescence based on one-sample MR (OR = 0.74, 95% CI [0.54, 1.01], pone-tailed = 0.03), corresponding to a 29% increase in the odds of receiving a depression diagnosis with each earlier year of menarche. Negative control and two-sample MR sensitivity analyses were broadly consistent with this pattern of results. Multivariable MR analyses accounting for the genetic overlap between age at menarche and childhood body size provided some evidence of confounding. Meanwhile, we found little consistent evidence of effects on other domains of mental health after accounting for co-occurring depression and other confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence that age at menarche affected diagnoses of adolescent depression, but not other domains of mental health. Our findings suggest that earlier age at menarche is linked to problems in specific domains rather than adolescent mental health in general.

No relationship between male pubertal timing and depression - new insights from epidemiology and Mendelian randomization

BACKGROUND

In males, the relationship between pubertal timing and depression is understudied and less consistent than in females, likely for reasons of unmeasured confounding. To clarify this relationship, a combined epidemiological and genetic approach was chosen to exploit the methodological advantages of both approaches.

METHODS

Data from 2026 males from a nationwide, representative study were used to investigate the non-/linear relationship between pubertal timing defined by the age at voice break and depression, considering a multitude of potential confounders and their interactions with pubertal timing. This analysis was complemented by Mendelian randomization (MR), which is robust to inferential problems inherent to epidemiological studies. We used 71 single nucleotide polymorphisms related to pubertal timing in males as instrumental variable to clarify its causal relationship with depression based on data from 807 553 individuals (246 363 cases and 561 190 controls) by univariable and multivariable MR, including BMI as pleiotropic phenotype.

RESULTS

Univariable MR indicated a causal effect of pubertal timing on depression risk (inverse-variance weighted: OR 0.93, 95%-CI [0.87-0.99)], p = 0.03). However, this was not confirmed by multivariable MR (inverse-variance weighted: OR 0.95, 95%-CI [0.88-1.02)], p = 0.13), consistent with the epidemiological approach (OR 1.01, 95%-CI [0.81-1.26], p = 0.93). Instead, the multivariable MR study indicated a causal relationship of BMI with depression by two of three methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Pubertal timing is not related to MDD risk in males.

Impact of pubertal timing and socioeconomic status on adult height and body proportions in Igbo ethnicity

OBJECTIVES

Age at menarche is a marker of pubertal timing that may influence adult height and body proportions. Previous studies have shown that socioeconomic status can affect age at menarche and growth patterns in different populations. This study aims to examine the associations between age at menarche, socioeconomic status, height, and leg length in a sample of Igbo ethnicity.

METHODS

The study used data from questionnaires and anthropometric measurements of 300 female students aged 18-25 years. Study tested the hypotheses that earlier menarche is associated with shorter stature and shorter leg length, and that these associations are modified by socioeconomic status using nonparametric analysis.

RESULTS

Mean age at menarche was fluctuating around 12.84 ± 1.40 and 13.59 ± 1.41 years with school girls and grew 3.0 cm taller per year birth cohort. The study also found that girls with earlier menarche were shorter adult height (162.51 ± 6.00) compared with girls who have menarche at a later age. The linear regression coefficients (bs) ranged from 0.37-0.49 in later year birth cohort and 0.37-0.44 in early year birth cohort for height. The effect of age at menarche on leg length was similar to the relation between age at menarche and birth cohort height.

CONCLUSION

The study will contribute to the understanding of how pubertal timing and socioeconomic status interact to shape adult health outcomes in a transitioning population.

Evaluation for causal effects of socioeconomic traits on risk of female genital prolapse (FGP): a multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Although observational studies have established some socioeconomic traits to be independent risk factors for pelvic organ prolapse (POP), they can not infer causality since they are easily biased by confounding factors and reverse causality. Moreover, it remains ambiguous which one or several of socioeconomic traits play predominant roles in the associations with POP risk. Mendelian randomization (MR) overcomes these biases and can even determine one or several socioeconomic traits predominantly accounting for the associations.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) analysis to disentangle whether one or more of five categories of socioeconomic traits, "age at which full-time education completed (abbreviated as "EA")", "job involving heavy manual or physical work ("heavy work")", "average total household income before tax (income)", "Townsend deprivation index at recruitment (TDI)", and "leisure/social activities" exerted independent and predominant effects on POP risk.

METHODS

We first screened single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as proxies for five individual socioeconomic traits and female genital prolapse (FGP, approximate surrogate for POP due to no GWASs for POP) to conduct Univariable Mendelian randomization (UVMR) analyses to estimate causal associations of five socioeconomic traits with FGP risk using IVW method as major analysis. Additionally, we conducted heterogeneity, pleiotropy, and sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of our results. Then, we harvested a combination of SNPs as an integrated proxy for the five socioeconomic traits to perform a MVMR analysis based on IVW MVMR model.

RESULTS

UVMR analyses based on IVW method identified causal effect of EA (OR 0.759, 95%CI 0.629-0.916, p = 0.004), but denied that of the other five traits on FGP risk (all p > 0.05). Heterogeneity analyses, pleiotropy analyses, "leave-one-out" sensitivity analyses and MR-PRESSO adjustments did not detect heterogeneity, pleiotropic effects, or result fluctuation by outlying SNPs in the effect estimates of six socioeconomic traits on FGP risk (all p > 0.05). Further, MVMR analyses determined a predominant role of EA playing in the associations of socioeconomic traits with FGP risk based on both MVMR Model 1 (OR 0.842, 95%CI 0.744-0.953, p = 0.006) and Model 2 (OR 0.857, 95%CI 0.759-0.967, p = 0.012).

CONCLUSION

Our UVMR and MVMR analyses provided genetic evidence that one socioeconomic trait, lower educational attainment, is associated with risk of female genital prolapse, and even independently and predominantly accounts for the associations of socioeconomic traits with risk of female genital prolapse.

Genetic liability to age at first sex and birth in relation to cardiovascular diseases: a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Growing evidence suggests that various reproductive factors, including early menarche, early menopause, and age at first birth, may increase the risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) later in life. However, the associations between reproductive factors and CVDs are inconsistent and controversial. Therefore, we conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to explore the potential links between age at first sex (AFS) and age at first birth (AFB) and several CVDs.

METHODS

We obtained summary statistics for exposure from the largest genome-wide association studies of AFS and AFB. To serve as instrumental variables, we selected 259 SNPs associated with AFS and 81 SNPs associated with AFB at the genome-wide significance level. We employed a random-effects inverse-variance weighted method to pool estimates, and conducted multivariable MR analysis to determine the direct association between AFS and AFB with CVDs, while accounting for the effects of confounders.

RESULTS

The genetic liability to later AFS was associated with decreased risks of heart failure (odd ratio [OR] 0.700; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.639-0.767; p = 2.23 × 10^-14), coronary artery disease (OR 0.728; 95% CI 0.657-0.808; p = 1.82 × 10^-9), myocardial infarction (OR 0.731; 95% CI 0.657-0.813; p = 8.33 × 10^-9), stroke (OR 0.747; 95% CI 0.684-0.816; p = 6.89 × 10^-11), and atrial fibrillation (OR 0.871; 95% CI 0.806-0.941; p = 4.48 × 10^-4). The genetic liability to later AFB was also associated with decreased risks of CVDs, including myocardial infarction (OR 0.895; 95% CI 0.852-0.940; p = 8.66 × 10^-6), coronary heart disease (OR 0.901; 95% CI 0.860-0.943; p = 9.02 × 10^-6), heart failure (OR 0.925; 95% CI 0.891-0.961; p = 5.32 × 10^-5), and atrial fibrillation (OR 0.944; 95% CI 0.911-0.978; p = 0.001). However, no association was found between AFB and stroke. The associations remained independent from the effects of AFS and AFB on potential confounders, including smoking, alcohol intake, body mass index, and depression. Mediation analysis suggested that education attainment partly mediates the link from AFS and AFB to CVD outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Our results observed a causal relationship between later AFS, AFB and lower CVDs risk; it emphasizes the importance of providing sex education since early sex and birth may have undesirable effects. Cardiovascular risk stratification that considers reproductive factors may help address CVD risk.

Mendelian randomization identifies age at menarche as an independent causal effect factor for gestational diabetes mellitus

AIMS

The relationship between age at menarche (AAM) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) risk is still inconclusive. This Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was used to assess systematically the causal relationship between AAM and GDM risk in human beings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with AAM, oestradiol levels, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) levels and bioavailable testosterone (BioT) levels were screened via the genome-wide association study enrolling individuals of European descent. Summary-level data for GDM (123 579 individuals) were extracted from the UK Biobank. An inverse-variance-weighted method was used for the primary MR analysis. Sensitivity analyses were examined via MR-Egger regression, heterogeneity tests, pleiotropy tests and leave-one-out tests. The directionality that exposure causes the outcome was verified using the MR-Steiger test.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted early AAM was found to have a causal positive association with a higher risk of GDM (odds ratio = 0.798, 95% confidence interval = 0.649-0.980, p = .031). In the multivariable MR analysis adjusted for oestradiol, SHBG and BioT levels, the causal association between AAM and GDM risk remained (odds ratio = 0.651, 95% confidence interval = 0.481-0.881, p = .006). A 1-SD increase in SHBG or BioT levels was significantly associated with a 41.4% decrease or 20.8% increase in the overall GDM risk (p = 3.71E-05 and .040), respectively. However, after controlling for AAM, oestradiol levels and BioT levels by multivariable MR analysis, there was no direct causal effect of SHBG levels on GDM risk (p = .084). Similarly, after adjusting for AAM, oestradiol levels and SHBG levels by multivariable MR analysis, there was no direct causal effect of BioT levels on the risk of GDM (p = .533). In addition, no direct causal association was identified between oestradiol levels and GDM risk in univariable MR analysis or multivariable MR analysis.

CONCLUSION

Genetic variants predisposing individuals to early AAM were independently associated with higher GDM risk. Further research is required to understand the mechanisms underlying this putative causative association. In addition, AAM may be helpful in clinical practice to identify women at risk for GDM; pregnant women who are young for menarche may need to take precautions before GDM develops.

The risk of endometriosis by early menarche is recently increased: a meta-analysis of literature published from 2000 to 2020

PURPOSE

The relationship between menarche age and endometriosis has been studied extensively; however, the results were inconsistent due to differences in study dates, populations, and methodology. The goal of this meta-analysis was to see how different research populations, dates, and types affected the estimated risk of endometriosis in early menarche.

METHODS

The terms "endometriosis", "early menarche", and other pertinent terms were searched in PubMed, Medline, and Embase. This meta-analysis comprised 16 papers published between 2000 and 2020, with a start year ranging from 1989 to 2017. Random effects were used to examine endometriosis risks in these articles. Study start years, countries, types (case-control and cohort studies), and quality (Newcastle-Ottawa scale, NOS) were all taken into account in further stratified analysis and meta-regression analyses.

RESULTS

Early menarche (< 12 years) was associated with a significant pooled risk of endometriosis with high heterogeneity (OR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.16-1.54, I² = 72.0%). Stratified analysis showed that this risk was increased in studies started after 2000 (OR = 1.62, 95% CI 0.96-1.35, I² = 74.4%), compared to those before 2000 (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.16-1.54, I² = 40.7%); additionally, this risk was higher in low-income countries (OR = 2.11, 95% CI 1.55-2.87, I² = 0%) than in other countries (OR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.09-1.43, I² = 70.6%). These results were further confirmed by meta-regression analysis (both P values < 0.1). No significant differences were found between different study types and NOS scores.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggested an increasing risk of endometriosis with early menarche, which was more noticeable in low-income countries. Large-scale studies are warranted.

Age at menarche relates to depression in adolescent girls: Comparing a clinical sample to the general pediatric population

CONTEXT

The timing of puberty, physical features of pubertal development, and hormones are closely intertwined but may also individually contribute to the risk for depression and depression severity. Additionally, their effects on mood may depend on depression severity, but previously this has only been studied in mostly subclinical depression.

METHODS

In 184 girls from a single psychiatric hospital with significant depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory-II score > 13), the relationship between depression severity and age at menarche (AAM), pubertal status, and gonadal/adrenal hormones (estradiol, progesterone, DHEA-S, androstenedione, testosterone, dihydrotestosterone) was investigated. Moreover, AAM in depressed girls was compared to that from a representative sample of German adolescents without a psychiatric disorder (N = 1674). Androgen levels were compared to those of age- and sex-matched controls (N = 59).

RESULTS

AAM but not pubertal stage or biochemical parameters related to depression. Girls with AAM at the lower normative range of pubertal development were 61 % more likely to develop depression and scored 4.9 points higher on the depression scale than girls experiencing menarche at the population average. Androstenedione levels were increased in the psychiatric sample, but neither androgen nor gonadal hormone levels were associated with depression severity.

LIMITATIONS

The study is cross-sectional.

CONCLUSIONS

These observations confirm previous studies in mostly subclinical depression and highlight the importance of AAM for adolescent depression. Thus, AAM could be considered a prognostic factor for a clinical risk score assessing the probability of adolescent depression. Moreover, these findings suggest fostering efforts that address risk factors that contribute to an earlier AAM.

Adverse Effects of Early Puberty Timing in Girls and Potential Solutions

Given the global secular declining trends of the age at puberty and its relevant mechanisms, as illustrated in the first part of this series, the present part will discuss the public health implications of early puberty and potential clinical and public health measures. Although the major effect of earlier maturation impacts adolescents' mental health and likelihood of engaging in risky behaviors, there are also effects in adulthood on cardiometabolic health, especially type 2 diabetes, and an increased risk of certain cancers, especially hormone-related cancers such as breast cancer. The paper ends with recommendations for clinical management, especially for girls who should receive further evaluation, as well as recommendations for the patient and her family and public health considerations.

Mendelian randomization analysis of the causal association of bone mineral density and fracture with multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurodegenerative disorder and an autoimmune disease. Until now, observational studies have indicated the association of bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture with the risk of MS. However, these studies indicated inconsistent findings. Until now, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been conducted in BMD, fracture, and MS, which provide large-scale datasets to investigate the causal association of BMD and fracture with the risk of MS using the Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Here, we performed an MR study to clarify the causal association between BMD/fracture and the risk of MS using large-scale publicly available GWAS datasets from BMD, fracture, and MS. We first evaluated the bidirectional causal effects of BMD and MS. The main analysis method inverse-variance weighted (IVW) showed no significant causal effect of BMD on the risk of MS (β = 0.058, and p = 1.98E-01), and MS on the risk of BMD (β = −0.001, and p = 7.83E-01). We then evaluated the bidirectional causal effects of fracture and MS. However, we only identified a significant causal effect of fracture on the risk of MS using IVW (β = −0.375, p = 0.002), but no significant causal effect of MS on the risk of the fracture using IVW (β = 0.011, p = 2.39E-01). Therefore, our main analysis method IVW only found a significant causal effect of fracture on MS using the threshold for the statistically significant association p < 0.05/4 = 0.0125. Meanwhile, multivariable MR analyses showed that the causal effect of fracture on MS was independent of smoking, drinking, and obesity, but dependent on BMD. In summary, our MR analysis demonstrates that genetically increased fracture may reduce the risk of MS. Our findings should be further verified and the underlying mechanisms should be further evaluated by future studies.

Identifying potential causal effects of age at menopause: a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study

Age at natural menopause (ANM) is associated with a range of health-related traits, including bone health, female reproductive cancers, and cardiometabolic health. Our objective was to conduct a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study (MR-pheWAS) of ANM. We conducted a hypothesis-free analysis of the genetic risk score (GRS) for ANM with 18,961 health-related traits among 181,279 women in UK Biobank. We also stratified the GRS according to the involvement of SNPs in DNA damage response. We sought to replicate our findings in independent cohorts. We conducted a negative control MR-pheWAS among men. Among women, we identified potential effects of ANM on 221 traits (1.17% of all traits) at a false discovery rate (P value ≤ 5.83 × 10^-4), and 91 (0.48%) potential effects when using Bonferroni threshold (P value ≤ 2.64 × 10^-6). Our findings included 55 traits directly related to ANM (e.g. hormone replacement therapy, gynaecological conditions and menstrual conditions), and liver function, kidney function, lung function, blood-cell composition, breast cancer and bone and cardiometabolic health. Replication analyses confirmed that younger ANM was associated with HbA1c (adjusted mean difference 0.003 mmol/mol; 95% CI 0.001, 0.006 per year decrease in ANM), breast cancer (adjusted OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.95, 0.98), and bone-mineral density (adjusted mean difference - 0.05; 95% CI - 0.07, - 0.03 for lumbar spine). In men, 30 traits were associated with the GRS at a false discovery rate (P value ≤ 5.49 × 10^-6), and 11 potential effects when using Bonferroni threshold (P value ≤ 2.75 × 10^-6). In conclusion, our results suggest that younger ANM has potential causal effects on a range of health-related traits.

Early menarche and adult major depressive disorder among Japanese women: The role of childhood traumatic experience and socioeconomic conditions in young adulthood

Aim

The aim of this study is to examine the long-term impact of early menarche with adult depression, and to assess whether this association was explained by childhood traumatic experience and socioeconomic condition in early adulthood.

Methods

The data were derived from World Mental Health Survey Japan Second, a cross-sectional survey conducted among Japanese community residents between 2013 and 2015. We used the data of female respondents aged 20-75 years (N = 1171). Hazard ratio (HR) of the onset of major depression up to 40 years was calculated for an early-menarche group and a non-early-menarche group, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank statistics were used to examine the difference in failure. Cox proportional hazard models were administered for the association of major depression with early-menarche and early-life psychosocial factors.

Results

Risk for major depressive disorders were three to four times higher in an early-menarche group, and the differences in survival functions were significant (p < 0.001). HR of early menarche was 2.79 (95% CI = 1.29-6.02), and was slightly changed when childhood traumatic experience and socioeconomic conditions in young adulthood were added in the model (HR = 2.88, 95% CI = 1.30-6.38; HR = 3.19, 95% CI = 1.41-7.21).

Conclusion

Early menarche was significantly associated with increased risk for depression by the age of 40 years. Childhood trauma and socioeconomic hardship in early adulthood did not account for the association. Both physical and psychosocial risk factors in early life need to be addressed for preventing women's depression.

Genome-wide interaction analysis identified low-frequency variants with sex disparity in lung cancer risk

Differences by sex in lung cancer incidence and mortality have been reported which cannot be fully explained by sex differences in smoking behavior, implying existence of genetic and molecular basis for sex disparity in lung cancer development. However, the information about sex dimorphism in lung cancer risk is quite limited despite the great success in lung cancer association studies. By adopting a stringent two-stage analysis strategy, we performed a genome-wide gene-sex interaction analysis using genotypes from a lung cancer cohort including ~ 47 000 individuals with European ancestry. Three low-frequency variants (minor allele frequency < 0.05), rs17662871 [odds ratio (OR) = 0.71, P = 4.29×10-8); rs79942605 (OR = 2.17, P = 2.81×10-8) and rs208908 (OR = 0.70, P = 4.54×10-8) were identified with different risk effect of lung cancer between men and women. Further expression quantitative trait loci and functional annotation analysis suggested rs208908 affects lung cancer risk through differential regulation of Coxsackie virus and adenovirus receptor gene expression in lung tissues between men and women. Our study is one of the first studies to provide novel insights about the genetic and molecular basis for sex disparity in lung cancer development.

Causal Effect of Age at Menarche on the Risk for Depression: Results From a Two-Sample Multivariable Mendelian Randomization Study

A fair number of epidemiological studies suggest that age at menarche (AAM) is associated with depression, but the reported effect sizes are small, and there is evidence of residual confounding. Moreover, previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies to avoid inferential problems inherent to epidemiological studies have provided mixed findings. To clarify the causal relationship between age at menarche and broadly defined depression risk, we used 360 genome-wide significantly AAM-related single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as instrumental variable and data from the latest GWAS for the broadly defined depression risk on 807,553 individuals (246,363 cases and 561,190 controls). Multiple methods to account for heterogeneity of the instrumental variable (penalized weighted median, MR Lasso, and contamination mixture method), systematic and idiosyncratic pleiotropy (MR RAPS), and horizontal pleiotropy (MR PRESSO and multivariable MR using three methods) were used. Body mass index, education attainment, and total white blood count were considered pleiotropic phenotypes in the multivariable MR analysis. In the univariable [inverse-variance weighted (IVW): OR = 0.96, 95% confidence interval = 0.94–0.98, p = 0.0003] and multivariable MR analysis (IVW: OR = 0.96, 95% confidence interval = 0.94–0.99, p = 0.007), there was a significant causal effect of AAM on depression risk. Thus, the present study supports conclusions from previous epidemiological studies implicating AAM in depression without the pitfalls of residual confounding and reverse causation. Considering the adverse consequences of an earlier AAM on mental health, this finding should foster efforts to address risk factors that promote an earlier AAM.

Exploring and mitigating potential bias when genetic instrumental variables are associated with multiple non-exposure traits in Mendelian randomization

With the increasing size and number of genome-wide association studies, individual single nucleotide polymorphisms are increasingly found to associate with multiple traits. Many different mechanisms could result in proposed genetic IVs for an exposure of interest being associated with multiple non-exposure traits, some of which could bias MR results. We describe and illustrate, through causal diagrams, a range of scenarios that could result in proposed IVs being related to non-exposure traits in MR studies. These associations could occur due to five scenarios: (i) confounding, (ii) vertical pleiotropy, (iii) horizontal pleiotropy, (iv) reverse causation and (v) selection bias. For each of these scenarios we outline steps that could be taken to explore the underlying mechanism and mitigate any resulting bias in the MR estimation. We recommend MR studies explore possible IV-non-exposure associations across a wider range of traits than is usually the case. We highlight the pros and cons of relying on sensitivity analyses without considering particular pleiotropic paths versus systematically exploring and controlling for potential pleiotropic or other biasing paths via known traits. We apply our recommendations to an illustrative example of the effect of maternal insomnia on offspring birthweight in UK Biobank.

Estimation of Causal Effect of Age at Menarche on Pubertal Height Growth Using Mendelian Randomization

We use Mendelian randomization to estimate the causal effect of age at menarche on late pubertal height growth and total pubertal height growth. The instrument SNPs selected from the exposure genome-wide association study (GWAS) are validated in additional population-matched exposure GWASs. Based on the inverse variance weighting method, there is a positive causal relationship of age at menarche on late pubertal growth (β^=0.56, 95% CI: (0.34, 0.78), p=3.16×10−7) and on total pubertal growth (β^=0.36, 95% CI: (0.14, 0.58), p=1.30×10−3). If the instrument SNPs are not validated in additional exposure GWASs, the estimated effect on late pubertal height growth increases by 3.6% to β^=0.58 (95% CI: (0.42, 0.73), p=4.38×10−13) while the estimates on total pubertal height growth increases by 41.7% to β^=0.51 (95% CI: (0.35, 0.67), p=2.96×10−11).

The relationships between women's reproductive factors: a Mendelian randomisation analysis

BACKGROUND

Women's reproductive factors include their age at menarche and menopause, the age at which they start and stop having children and the number of children they have. Studies that have linked these factors with disease risk have largely investigated individual reproductive factors and have not considered the genetic correlation and total interplay that may occur between them. This study aimed to investigate the nature of the relationships between eight female reproductive factors.

METHODS

We used data from the UK Biobank and genetic consortia with data available for the following reproductive factors: age at menarche, age at menopause, age at first birth, age at last birth, number of births, being parous, age first had sexual intercourse and lifetime number of sexual partners. Linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) was performed to investigate the genetic correlation between reproductive factors. We then applied Mendelian randomisation (MR) methods to estimate the causal relationships between these factors. Sensitivity analyses were used to investigate directionality of the effects, test for evidence of pleiotropy and account for sample overlap.

RESULTS

LDSC indicated that most reproductive factors are genetically correlated (rg range: |0.06-0.94|), though there was little evidence for genetic correlations between lifetime number of sexual partners and age at last birth, number of births and ever being parous (rg < 0.01). MR revealed potential causal relationships between many reproductive factors, including later age at menarche (1 SD increase) leading to a later age at first sexual intercourse (beta (B) = 0.09 SD, 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 0.06,0.11), age at first birth (B = 0.07 SD, CI = 0.04,0.10), age at last birth (B = 0.06 SD, CI = 0.04,0.09) and age at menopause (B = 0.06 SD, CI = 0.03,0.10). Later age at first birth was found to lead to a later age at menopause (B = 0.21 SD, CI = 0.13,0.29), age at last birth (B = 0.72 SD, CI = 0.67, 0.77) and a lower number of births (B = -0.38 SD, CI = -0.44, -0.32).

CONCLUSION

This study presents evidence that women's reproductive factors are genetically correlated and causally related. Future studies examining the health sequelae of reproductive factors should consider a woman's entire reproductive history, including the causal interplay between reproductive factors.

Matrix Metalloproteinases in Relation to Bone Mineral Density: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study

Background: We aimed at investigating causal associations between matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and bone mineral density (BMD) by the Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. Methods: From genome-wide association studies of European ancestry, we selected instrumental variables for MMP-1, MMP-3, MMP-7, MMP-8, MMP-10, and MMP-12. Accordingly, we retrieved summary statistics of three site-specific BMD, namely, forearm, femoral neck, and lumbar spine. We conducted an inverse variance weighted MR as the primary method to compute overall effects from multiple instruments, while additional MR approaches and sensitivity analyses were implemented. Bonferroni-adjusted significance threshold was set at p < 0.05/18 = 0.003. Results: Totally, there was no evidence for causal effects of genetically-predicted levels of MMPs on BMD measurement at three common sites. MR results indicated that there were no causal associations of circulating MMPs with forearm BMD (all p ≥ 0.023) by the inverse variance weighted method. Similarly, there were no causal effects of MMPs on femoral neck BMD (all p ≥ 0.120) and MR results did not support causal relationships between MMPs and lumbar spine BMD (all p ≥ 0.017). Multiple sensitivity analyses suggested the robustness of MR results, which were less likely to be biased by unbalanced pleiotropy or evident heterogeneity. Conclusion: We found no evidence for the causal relationship between MMPs and BMD in the European population.

A secular trend in age at menarche in Yunnan Province, China: a multiethnic population study of 1,275,000 women

Background

Age at menarche (AAM) has shown different trends in women from different ethnic and economic regions in recent decades. Data on AAM among multiethnic women living in developing areas are scarce.

Methods

Data on AAM from 1,275,000 women among 26 ethnicities in Yunnan Province, China, who were born from 1965 to 2001 were obtained from the National Free Preconception Health Examination Project from 2010 to 2018. The patterns of AAM trends were analysed according to ethnic group, area of residence, and socioeconomic status.

Results

The mean AAM was 13.7 ± 1.21 years (95% CI 13.697–13.701), with a decrease from 14.12 (±1.41) among women born before 1970 to 13.3 (±1.04) among those born after 2000. The decline was 0.36 years per 10-year birth cohort, and the plateau has not yet been reached in Yunnan. A secular trend of earlier AAM was observed in all 26 ethnic groups. The fastest rate of decline was observed for the Bai ethnicity (0.36 years per decade). Consistent declining trends in AAM appeared among extreme-, middling-, and nonpoverty economic patterns from 1965 to 2001, with reductions of 1.19, 1.44, and 1.5 years, respectively (P < 0.001). The peak reduction among middling poverty and extreme poverty occurred in the early 2000s (0.4 and 0.32 years). Multivariate analysis showed a significant difference in the declining trends in AAM along rural/urban lines (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

There was a secular trend towards a younger AAM during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century birth cohorts in the Yunnan population. Considering the difference in AAM trends due to ethnic and socioeconomic status in Yunnan, the health authority should utilize flexible adjusted health care strategies in different regions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11951-x.

Puberty timing and markers of cardiovascular structure and function at 25 years: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Whether earlier onset of puberty is associated with higher cardiovascular risk in early adulthood is not well understood. Our objective was to examine the association between puberty timing and markers of cardiovascular structure and function at age 25 years.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective birth cohort study using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Participants were born between April 1, 1991, and December 31, 1992. Exposure of interest was age at peak height velocity (aPHV), an objective and validated growth-based measure of puberty onset. Outcome measures included cardiovascular structure and function at age 25 years: carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and relative wall thickness (RWT), pulse wave velocity (PWV) and systolic blood pressure (SBP). Multiple imputation was used to impute missing data on covariates and outcomes. Linear regression was used to examine the association between aPHV and each measure of cardiac structure and function, adjusting for maternal age, gestational age, household social class, maternal education, mother's partner's education, breastfeeding, parity, birthweight, maternal body mass index, maternal marital status, maternal prenatal smoking status and height and fat mass at age 9. All analyses were stratified by sex.

RESULTS

A total of 2752-4571 participants were included in the imputed analyses. A 1-year older aPHV was not strongly associated with markers of cardiac structure and function in males and females at 25 years and most results spanned the null value. In adjusted analyses, a 1-year older aPHV was associated with 0.003 mm (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.00001, 0.006) and 0.0008 mm (95% CI - 0.002, 0.003) higher CIMT; 0.02 m/s (95% CI - 0.05, 0.09) and 0.02 m/s (95% CI - 0.04, 0.09) higher PWV; and 0.003 mmHg (95% CI - 0.60, 0.60) and 0.13 mmHg (95% CI - 0.44, 0.70) higher SBP, among males and females, respectively. A 1-year older aPHV was associated with - 0.55 g/m2.7 (95% CI - 0.03, - 1.08) and - 0.89 g/m2.7 (95% CI - 0.45, - 1.34) lower LVMI and - 0.001 (95% CI - 0.006, 0.002) and - 0.002 (95% CI - 0.006, 0.002) lower RWT among males and females.

CONCLUSIONS

Earlier puberty is unlikely to have a major impact on pre-clinical cardiovascular risk in early adulthood.

How can two biological variables have opposing secular trends, yet be positively related? A demonstration using timing of puberty and adult height

Timing of puberty and adult height have opposing secular trends yet are positively associated in individuals. We demonstrate this using data from a single sample and discuss possible statistical and epidemiological reasons behind it. The sample comprised 365 females from Fels Longitudinal Study born 1929-1992. We used Super-Imposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) to estimate individual age at peak height velocity (PHV) and PHV from serial height data (8149 observations between 5 and 24 years). General linear regression was used to investigate the association between height and age at PHV, and secular trends in height, age at PHV and PHV. Although adult height increased 0.42 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.77) cm per decade, and age at PHV decreased 1.14 (-3.74, 1.45) weeks per decade, adult height increased by 2.44 (1.78, 3.10) cm per year higher age at PHV. We found tentative evidence of the positive association between age at PHV and adult height strengthened 0.25 (-0.09, 0.59) cm each decade. Secular trends in related variables may differ if the between-individual and between-cohort associations are different. To understand if a secular trend in one variable has contributed to a trend in another, each needs to be modelled over time, together with the changing association between them.