Comparison and development of machine learning tools in the prediction of chronic kidney disease progression

Applying stacking ensemble method to predict chronic kidney disease progression in Chinese population based on laboratory information system: a retrospective study

Background and Objective

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health issue, and accurate prediction of the progression of kidney failure is critical for clinical decision-making and helps improve patient outcomes. As such, we aimed to develop and externally validate a machine-learned model to predict the progression of CKD using common laboratory variables, demographic characteristics, and an electronic health records database.

Methods

We developed a predictive model using longitudinal clinical data from a single center for Chinese CKD patients. The cohort included 987 patients who were followed up for more than 24 months. Fifty-three laboratory features were considered for inclusion in the model. The primary outcome in our study was an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or kidney failure. Machine learning algorithms were applied to the modeling dataset (n = 296), and an external dataset (n = 71) was used for model validation. We assessed model discrimination via area under the curve (AUC) values, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score.

Results

Over a median follow-up period of 3.75 years, 148 patients experienced kidney failure. The optimal model was based on stacking different classifier algorithms with six laboratory features, including 24-h urine protein, potassium, glucose, urea, prealbumin and total protein. The model had considerable predictive power, with AUC values of 0.896 and 0.771 in the validation and external datasets, respectively. This model also accurately predicted the progression of renal function in patients over different follow-up periods after their initial assessment.

Conclusions

A prediction model that leverages routinely collected laboratory features in the Chinese population can accurately identify patients with CKD at high risk of progressing to kidney failure. An online version of the model can be easily and quickly applied in clinical management and treatment.

Artificial intelligence and predictive models for early detection of acute kidney injury: transforming clinical practice

Acute kidney injury (AKI) presents a significant clinical challenge due to its rapid progression to kidney failure, resulting in serious complications such as electrolyte imbalances, fluid overload, and the potential need for renal replacement therapy. Early detection and prediction of AKI can improve patient outcomes through timely interventions. This review was conducted as a narrative literature review, aiming to explore state-of-the-art models for early detection and prediction of AKI. We conducted a comprehensive review of findings from various studies, highlighting their strengths, limitations, and practical considerations for implementation in healthcare settings. We highlight the potential benefits and challenges of their integration into routine clinical care and emphasize the importance of establishing robust early-detection systems before the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted prediction models. Advances in AI for AKI detection and prediction are examined, addressing their clinical applicability, challenges, and opportunities for routine implementation.

Plasma Metabolomics Identifies Key Metabolites and Improves Prediction of Diabetic Retinopathy: Development and Validation across Multinational Cohorts

PURPOSE

To identify longitudinal metabolomic fingerprints of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and to evaluate their usefulness in predicting DR development and progression.

DESIGN

Multicenter, multiethnic cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

This study included 17 675 participants from the UK Biobank (UKB) who had baseline prediabetes or diabetes, identified in accordance with the 2021 American Diabetes Association guidelines, and were free of baseline DR and an additional 638 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the Guangzhou Diabetic Eye Study (GDES) for external validation. Diabetic retinopathy was determined by ICD-10 codes in the UKB cohort and revised ETDRS grading criteria in the GDES cohort.

METHODS

Longitudinal DR metabolomic fingerprints were identified through nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) assay in UKB participants. The predictive value of these fingerprints for predicting DR development were assessed in a fully withheld test set. External validation and extrapolation analyses of DR progression and microvascular damage were conducted in the GDES cohort using NMR technology. Model assessments included the concordance (C) statistic, net classification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration, and clinical usefulness in both cohorts.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

DR development and progression and retinal microvascular damage.

RESULTS

Of 168 metabolites, 118 were identified as candidate metabolomic fingerprints for future DR development. These fingerprints significantly improved the predictability for DR development beyond traditional indicators (C statistic, 0.802 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.760-0.843] vs. 0.751 [95% CI, 0.706-0.796]; P = 5.56 × 10-4). Glucose, lactate, and citrate were among the fingerprints validated in the GDES cohort. Using these parsimonious and replicable fingerprints yielded similar improvements for predicting DR development (C statistic, 0.807 [95% CI, 0.711-0.903] vs. 0.617 [95% CI, 0.494-0.740]; P = 1.68 × 10-4) and progression (C statistic, 0.797 [95% CI, 0.712-0.882] vs. 0.665 [95% CI, 0.545-0.784]; P = 0.003) in the external GDES cohort. Improvements in NRIs, IDIs, and clinical usefulness also were evident in both cohorts (all P < 0.05). In addition, lactate and citrate were associated with microvascular damage across macular and optic nerve head regions among Chinese GDES (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Metabolomic profiling may be effective in identifying robust fingerprints for predicting future DR development and progression, providing novel insights into the early and advanced stages of DR pathophysiology.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

A Klotho-Based Machine Learning Model for Prediction of both Kidney and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease

Introduction

This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models based on serum Klotho for predicting end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Methods

Five different ML models were trained to predict the risk of ESKD and CVD at three different time points (3, 5, and 8 years) using a cohort of 400 non-dialysis CKD patients. The dataset was divided into a training set (70%) and an internal validation set (30%). These models were informed by data comprising 47 clinical features, including serum Klotho. The best-performing model was selected and used to identify risk factors for each outcome. Model performance was assessed using various metrics.

Results

The findings showed that the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model had the highest accuracy (C-index = 0.71) in predicting ESKD. The features mainly included in this model were estimated glomerular filtration rate, 24-h urinary microalbumin, serum albumin, phosphate, parathyroid hormone, and serum Klotho, which achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) of 0.930 (95% CI: 0.897-0.962). In addition, for the CVD risk prediction, the random survival forest model with the highest accuracy (C-index = 0.66) was selected and achieved the highest AUC of 0.782 (95% CI: 0.633-0.930). The features mainly included in this model were age, history of primary hypertension, calcium, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and serum Klotho.

Conclusion

We successfully developed and validated Klotho-based ML risk prediction models for CVD and ESKD in CKD patients with good performance, indicating their high clinical utility.

Predicting the Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Review of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Approaches

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive condition characterized by gradual loss of kidney function, necessitating timely monitoring and interventions. This systematic review comprehensively evaluates the application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques for predicting CKD progression. A rigorous literature search identified 13 relevant studies employing diverse AI/ML algorithms, including logistic regression, support vector machines, random forests, neural networks, and deep learning approaches. These studies primarily aimed to predict CKD progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or the need for renal replacement therapy, with some focusing on diabetic kidney disease progression, proteinuria, or estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline. The findings highlight the promising predictive performance of AI/ML models, with several achieving high accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve scores. Key factors contributing to enhanced prediction included incorporating longitudinal data, baseline characteristics, and specific biomarkers such as estimated GFR, proteinuria, serum albumin, and hemoglobin levels. Integration of these predictive models with electronic health records and clinical decision support systems offers opportunities for timely risk identification, early interventions, and personalized management strategies. While challenges related to data quality, bias, and ethical considerations exist, the reviewed studies underscore the potential of AI/ML techniques to facilitate early detection, risk stratification, and targeted interventions for CKD patients. Ongoing research, external validation, and careful implementation are crucial to leveraging these advanced analytical approaches in clinical practice, ultimately improving outcomes and reducing the burden of CKD.

Personalised prediction of maintenance dialysis initiation in patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3-5: a multicentre study using the machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

Optimal timing for initiating maintenance dialysis in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-5 is challenging. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model for early personalised prediction of maintenance dialysis initiation within 1-year and 3-year timeframes among patients with CKD stages 3-5.

METHODS

Retrospective electronic health record data from the Taipei Medical University clinical research database were used. Newly diagnosed patients with CKD stages 3-5 between 2008 and 2017 were identified. The observation period spanned from the diagnosis of CKD stages 3-5 until the maintenance dialysis initiation or a maximum follow-up of 3 years. Predictive models were developed using patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory data and medications. The dataset was divided into training and testing sets to ensure robust model performance. Model evaluation metrics, including area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and F1 score, were employed.

RESULTS

A total of 6123 and 5279 patients were included for 1 year and 3 years of the model development. The artificial neural network demonstrated better performance in predicting maintenance dialysis initiation within 1 year and 3 years, with AUC values of 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. Important features such as baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria significantly contributed to the predictive model.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the efficacy of an ML approach in developing a highly predictive model for estimating the timing of maintenance dialysis initiation in patients with CKD stages 3-5. These findings have important implications for personalised treatment strategies, enabling improved clinical decision-making and potentially enhancing patient outcomes.

Predicting chronic kidney disease progression with artificial intelligence

BACKGROUND

The use of tools that allow estimation of the probability of progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) to advanced stages has not yet achieved significant practical importance in clinical setting. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning-based model for predicting the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) and disease progression for patients with stage 3-5 CKD.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, closed cohort, observational study. Patients with CKD affiliated with a private insurer with five-year follow-up data were selected. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were included, and the models were developed based on machine learning methods. The outcomes were CKD progression, a significant decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and the need for RRT.

RESULTS

Three prediction models were developed-Model 1 (risk at 4.5 years, n = 1446) with a F1 of 0.82, 0.53, and 0.55 for RRT, stage progression, and reduction in the eGFR, respectively,- Model 2 (time- to-event, n = 2143) with a C-index of 0.89, 0.67, and 0.67 for RRT, stage progression, reduction in the eGFR, respectively, and Model 3 (reduced Model 2) with C-index = 0.68, 0.68 and 0.88, for RRT, stage progression, reduction in the eGFR, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The time-to-event model performed well in predicting the three outcomes of CKD progression at five years. This model can be useful for predicting the onset and time of occurrence of the outcomes of interest in the population with established CKD.

A machine learning radiomics model based on bpMRI to predict bone metastasis in newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients

OBJECTIVES

To develop and evaluate a machine learning radiomics model based on biparametric magnetic resonance imaging MRI (bpMRI) to predict bone metastasis (BM) status in newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed bpMRI scans of PCa patients from multiple centers between January 2016 and October 2021. 348 PCa patients were recruited from two institutions for this study. The first institution contributed 284 patients, stratified and randomly divided into training and internal validation cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. The remaining 64 patients were sourced from the second institution and comprised the external validation cohort. Radiomics features were extracted from axial T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) tumor regions. We developed the radiomics prediction model for BM in the training cohort and validated it in the internal and external validation cohorts. As a benchmark, we trained the logistic regression model with lasso feature reduction (LFR-LRM) in the training cohort and further compared it with Naive Bayes, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGboost), Random Forest (RF), GBDT, SVM, Adaboost, and KNN algorithms and validated in both the internal and external cohorts. The performance of several predictive models was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC).

RESULTS

The LFR-LRM model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.822-0.974) and an accuracy of 0.828 (95% CI: 0.713-0.911). The AUC and accuracy in external validation were 0.866 (95% CI: 0.784-0.948) and 0.769 (95% CI: 0.648-0.864), respectively. The RF and XGBoost models outperformed the LFR-LRM, with AUCs of 0.907 (95% CI: 0.863-0.949) and 0.928 (95% CI: 0.882-0.974) and accuracies of 0.831 (95% CI: 0.727-0.907) and 0.884 (95% CI: 0.792-0.946). External validation for these models yielded AUCs and accuracies of 0.911 (95% CI: 0.861-0.966), 0.921 (95% CI: 0.889-0.953), and 0.846 (95% CI: 0.735-0.923) and 0.876 (95% CI: 0.771-0.945), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The XGboost machine learning model is more accurate than LFR-LRM for predicting BM in patients with newly confirmed PCa.

Integrative analysis of bioinformatics and machine learning to identify cuprotosis-related biomarkers and immunological characteristics in heart failure

Backgrounds

Cuprotosis is a newly discovered programmed cell death by modulating tricarboxylic acid cycle. Emerging evidence showed that cuprotosis-related genes (CRGs) are implicated in the occurrence and progression of multiple diseases. However, the mechanism of cuprotosis in heart failure (HF) has not been investigated yet.

Methods

The HF microarray datasets GSE16499, GSE26887, GSE42955, GSE57338, GSE76701, and GSE79962 were downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database to identify differentially expressed CRGs between HF patients and nonfailing donors (NFDs). Four machine learning models were used to identify key CRGs features for HF diagnosis. The expression profiles of key CRGs were further validated in a merged GEO external validation dataset and human samples through quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). In addition, Gene Ontology (GO) function enrichment, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment, and immune infiltration analysis were used to investigate potential biological functions of key CRGs.

Results

We discovered nine differentially expressed CRGs in heart tissues from HF patients and NFDs. With the aid of four machine learning algorithms, we identified three indicators of cuprotosis (DLAT, SLC31A1, and DLST) in HF, which showed good diagnostic properties. In addition, their differential expression between HF patients and NFDs was confirmed through qRT-PCR. Moreover, the results of enrichment analyses and immune infiltration exhibited that these diagnostic markers of CRGs were strongly correlated to energy metabolism and immune activity.

Conclusions

Our study discovered that cuprotosis was strongly related to the pathogenesis of HF, probably by regulating energy metabolism-associated and immune-associated signaling pathways.

Machine learning to optimize cerebrospinal fluid dilution for analysis of MRZH reaction

OBJECTIVES

To create a supervised machine learning algorithm aimed at predicting an optimal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) dilution when determining virus specific antibody indices to reduce the need for repeated tests.

METHODS

The CatBoost model was trained, optimized, and tested on a dataset with five input variables: albumin quotient, immunoglobulin G (IgG) in CSF, IgG quotient (QIgG), intrathecal synthesis (ITS) and limes quotient (LIM IgG). Albumin and IgG concentrations in CSF and serum were performed by immunonephelometry on Atellica NEPH 630 (Siemens Healthineers, Erlangen, Germany) and ITS and LIM IgG were calculated according to Reiber. Concentrations of IgG antibodies to measles, rubella, varicella zoster and herpes simplex 1/2 viruses were analysed in CSF and serum by ELISA (Euroimmun, Lübeck, Germany). Optimal CSF dilution was defined for each virus and used as a classification variable while the standard operating procedure was set to start at 2×-dilution of CSF.

RESULTS

The dataset included 571 samples with the imbalanced distribution of the optimal CSF dilutions: 2× dilution n=440, 3× dilution n=109, 4× dilution n=22. The optimized CatBoost model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.971, and a test accuracy of 0.900. The model falsely classified 14 (9.9 %) samples of the testing set but reduced the need for repeated testing compared to the standard protocol by 42 %. The output of the CatBoost model is mostly dependant on the QIgG, ITS and CSF IgG variables.

CONCLUSIONS

An accurate algorithm was achieved for predicting the optimal CSF dilution, which reduces the number of test repeats.

Imaging-based deep learning in kidney diseases: recent progress and future prospects

Kidney diseases result from various causes, which can generally be divided into neoplastic and non-neoplastic diseases. Deep learning based on medical imaging is an established methodology for further data mining and an evolving field of expertise, which provides the possibility for precise management of kidney diseases. Recently, imaging-based deep learning has been widely applied to many clinical scenarios of kidney diseases including organ segmentation, lesion detection, differential diagnosis, surgical planning, and prognosis prediction, which can provide support for disease diagnosis and management. In this review, we will introduce the basic methodology of imaging-based deep learning and its recent clinical applications in neoplastic and non-neoplastic kidney diseases. Additionally, we further discuss its current challenges and future prospects and conclude that achieving data balance, addressing heterogeneity, and managing data size remain challenges for imaging-based deep learning. Meanwhile, the interpretability of algorithms, ethical risks, and barriers of bias assessment are also issues that require consideration in future development. We hope to provide urologists, nephrologists, and radiologists with clear ideas about imaging-based deep learning and reveal its great potential in clinical practice.Critical relevance statement The wide clinical applications of imaging-based deep learning in kidney diseases can help doctors to diagnose, treat, and manage patients with neoplastic or non-neoplastic renal diseases.Key points• Imaging-based deep learning is widely applied to neoplastic and non-neoplastic renal diseases.• Imaging-based deep learning improves the accuracy of the delineation, diagnosis, and evaluation of kidney diseases.• The small dataset, various lesion sizes, and so on are still challenges for deep learning.

Investigation on explainable machine learning models to predict chronic kidney diseases

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major worldwide health problem, affecting a large proportion of the world's population and leading to higher morbidity and death rates. The early stages of CKD sometimes present without visible symptoms, causing patients to be unaware. Early detection and treatments are critical in reducing complications and improving the overall quality of life for people afflicted. In this work, we investigate the use of an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI)-based strategy, leveraging clinical characteristics, to predict CKD. This study collected clinical data from 491 patients, comprising 56 with CKD and 435 without CKD, encompassing clinical, laboratory, and demographic variables. To develop the predictive model, five machine learning (ML) methods, namely logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), were employed. The optimal model was selected based on accuracy and area under the curve (AUC). Additionally, the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) algorithms were utilized to demonstrate the influence of the features on the optimal model. Among the five models developed, the XGBoost model achieved the best performance with an AUC of 0.9689 and an accuracy of 93.29%. The analysis of feature importance revealed that creatinine, glycosylated hemoglobin type A1C (HgbA1C), and age were the three most influential features in the XGBoost model. The SHAP force analysis further illustrated the model's visualization of individualized CKD predictions. For further insights into individual predictions, we also utilized the LIME algorithm. This study presents an interpretable ML-based approach for the early prediction of CKD. The SHAP and LIME methods enhance the interpretability of ML models and help clinicians better understand the rationale behind the predicted outcomes more effectively.

Artificial Intelligence in Kidney Disease: A Comprehensive Study and Directions for Future Research

Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a promising tool in the field of healthcare, with an increasing number of research articles evaluating its applications in the domain of kidney disease. To comprehend the evolving landscape of AI research in kidney disease, a bibliometric analysis is essential. The purposes of this study are to systematically analyze and quantify the scientific output, research trends, and collaborative networks in the application of AI to kidney disease. This study collected AI-related articles published between 2012 and 20 November 2023 from the Web of Science. Descriptive analyses of research trends in the application of AI in kidney disease were used to determine the growth rate of publications by authors, journals, institutions, and countries. Visualization network maps of country collaborations and author-provided keyword co-occurrences were generated to show the hotspots and research trends in AI research on kidney disease. The initial search yielded 673 articles, of which 631 were included in the analyses. Our findings reveal a noteworthy exponential growth trend in the annual publications of AI applications in kidney disease. Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation emerged as the leading publisher, accounting for 4.12% (26 out of 631 papers), followed by the American Journal of Transplantation at 3.01% (19/631) and Scientific Reports at 2.69% (17/631). The primary contributors were predominantly from the United States (n = 164, 25.99%), followed by China (n = 156, 24.72%) and India (n = 62, 9.83%). In terms of institutions, Mayo Clinic led with 27 contributions (4.27%), while Harvard University (n = 19, 3.01%) and Sun Yat-Sen University (n = 16, 2.53%) secured the second and third positions, respectively. This study summarized AI research trends in the field of kidney disease through statistical analysis and network visualization. The findings show that the field of AI in kidney disease is dynamic and rapidly progressing and provides valuable information for recognizing emerging patterns, technological shifts, and interdisciplinary collaborations that contribute to the advancement of knowledge in this critical domain.

Optimizing Levothyroxine Replacement: A Precision Dosage Model for Post-Thyroidectomy Patients

Background

Thyroidectomy is commonly performed for benign or malignant thyroid tumors, often resulting in hypothyroidism. Levothyroxine (LT4) supplementation is crucial to maintain hormone levels within the normal range and suppress TSH for cancer control. However, determining the optimal dosage remains challenging, leading to uncertain outcomes and potential side effects.

Methods

We analyzed clinical examination data from 510 total thyroidectomy patients, including demographic information, blood tests, and thyroid function. Using R, we applied data preprocessing techniques and identified 274 samples with 98 variables. Principal Component Analysis, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were conducted to identify factors associated with optimal LT4 dosage.

Results

The analysis revealed that only eight variables significantly influenced the final satisfactory dosage of LT4 in tablets: Benign0/Malignant1 (benign or malignant), BQB (electrophoretic albumin ratio), TP (total protein), FDP (fibrin degradation products), TRAB_1 (thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor antibody), PT (prothrombin time), MONO# (monocyte count), and HCV0C (hepatitis C antibody). The resulting predictive model was: .

Conclusion

Parameters such as benign/malignant status, TRAB_1, and BQB ratio during medication can serve as observational indicators for postoperative LT4 dosage. The calculated linear model can predict the LT4 dosage for patients after thyroidectomy, leading to improved treatment effectiveness and conserving medical resources.

Establishment and validation of a heart failure risk prediction model for elderly patients after coronary rotational atherectomy based on machine learning

Objective

To develop and validate a heart failure risk prediction model for elderly patients after coronary rotational atherectomy based on machine learning methods.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to select 303 elderly patients with severe coronary calcification as the study subjects. According to the occurrence of postoperative heart failure, the study subjects were divided into the heart failure group (n = 53) and the non-heart failure group (n = 250). Retrospective collection of clinical data from the study subjects during hospitalization. After processing the missing values in the original data and addressing sample imbalance using Adaptive Synthetic Sampling (ADASYN) method, the final dataset consists of 502 samples: 250 negative samples (i.e., patients not suffering from heart failure) and 252 positive samples (i.e., patients with heart failure). According to a 7:3 ratio, the datasets of 502 patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 351) and a validation set (n = 151). On the training set, logistic regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and lightweight gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithms were used to construct heart failure risk prediction models; Evaluate model performance on the validation set by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, F1-score, and prediction accuracy.

Result

A total of 17.49% of 303 patients occured postoperative heart failure. The AUC of LR, XGBoost, SVM, and LightGBM models in the training set were 0.872, 1.000, 0.699, and 1.000, respectively. After 10 fold cross validation, the AUC was 0.863, 0.972, 0.696, and 0.963 in the training set, respectively. Among them, XGBoost had the highest AUC and better predictive performance, while SVM models had the worst performance. The XGBoost model also showed good predictive performance in the validation set (AUC = 0.972, 95% CI [0.951-0.994]). The Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method suggested that the six characteristic variables of blood cholesterol, serum creatinine, fasting blood glucose, age, triglyceride and NT-proBNP were important positive factors for the occurrence of heart failure, and LVEF was important negative factors for the occurrence of heart failure.

Conclusion

The seven characteristic variables of blood cholesterol, blood creatinine, fasting blood glucose, NT-proBNP, age, triglyceride and LVEF are all important factors affecting the occurrence of heart failure. The prediction model of heart failure risk for elderly patients after CRA based on the XGBoost algorithm is superior to SVM, LightGBM and the traditional LR model. This model could be used to assist clinical decision-making and improve the adverse outcomes of patients after CRA.

Machine learning models to predict end-stage kidney disease in chronic kidney disease stage 4

INTRODUCTION

End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Identifying patients with stage 4 CKD (CKD4) at risk of rapid progression to ESKD remains challenging. Accurate prediction of CKD4 progression can improve patient outcomes by improving advanced care planning and optimizing healthcare resource allocation.

METHODS

We obtained electronic health record data from patients with CKD4 in a large health system between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2016. We developed and validated four models, including Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN), to predict ESKD at 3 years. We utilized area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to evaluate model performances and utilized Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values and plots to define feature dependence of the best performance model.

RESULTS

We included 3,160 patients with CKD4. ESKD was observed in 538 patients (21%). All approaches had similar AUROCs; ANN yielded the highest AUROC (0.77; 95%CI 0.75 to 0.79) and LASSO regression (0.77; 95%CI 0.75 to 0.79), followed by random forest (0.76; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.79), and XGBoost (0.76; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated several models for near-term prediction of kidney failure in CKD4. ANN, random forest, and XGBoost demonstrated similar predictive performances. Using this suite of models, interventions can be customized based on risk, and population health and resources appropriately allocated.

GRU-D-Weibull: A novel real-time individualized endpoint prediction

BACKGROUND

In the era of healthcare digital transformation, using electronic health record (EHR) data to generate various endpoint estimates for active monitoring is highly desirable in chronic disease management. However, traditional predictive modeling strategies leveraging well-curated data sets can have limited real-world implementation potential due to various data quality issues in EHR data.

METHODS

We propose a novel predictive modeling approach, GRU-D-Weibull, which models Weibull distribution leveraging gated recurrent units with decay (GRU-D), for real-time individualized endpoint prediction and population level risk management using EHR data.

EXPERIMENTS

We systematically evaluated the performance and showcased the real-world implementability of the proposed approach through individual level endpoint prediction using a cohort of patients with chronic kidney disease stage 4 (CKD4). A total of 536 features including ICD/CPT codes, medications, lab tests, vital measurements, and demographics were retrieved for 6879 CKD4 patients. The performance metrics including C-index, L1-loss, Parkes' error, and predicted survival probability at time of event were compared between GRU-D-Weibull and other alternative approaches including accelerated failure time model (AFT), XGBoost based AFT (XGB(AFT)), random survival forest (RSF), and Nnet-survival. Both in-process and post-process calibrations were experimented on GRU-D-Weibull generated survival probabilities.

RESULTS

GRU-D-Weibull demonstrated C-index of ~0.7 at index date, which increased to ~0.77 at 4.3 years of follow-up, comparable to that of RSF. GRU-D-Weibull achieved absolute L1-loss of ~1.1 years (sd≈0.95) at CKD4 index date, and a minimum of ~0.45 year (sd≈0.3) at 4 years of follow-up, comparing to second-ranked RSF of ~1.4 years (sd≈1.1) at index date and ~0.64 years (sd≈0.26) at 4 years. Both significantly outperform competing approaches. GRU-D-Weibull constrained predicted survival probability at time of event to smaller and more fixed range than competing models throughout follow-up. Significant correlations were observed between prediction error and missing proportions of all major categories of input features at index date (Corr ~0.1 to ~0.3), which faded away within 1 year after index date as more data became available. Through post training recalibration, we achieved a close alignment between the predicted and observed survival probabilities across multiple prediction horizons at different time points during follow-up.

CONCLUSION

GRU-D-Weibull shows advantages over competing methods in handling missingness commonly encountered in EHR data and providing both probability and point estimates for diverse prediction horizons during follow-up. The experiment highlights the potential of GRU-D-Weibull as a suitable candidate for individualized endpoint risk management, utilizing real-time clinical data to generate various endpoint estimates for monitoring. Additional research is warranted to evaluate the influence of different data quality aspects on prediction performance. Furthermore, collaboration with clinicians is essential to explore the integration of this approach into clinical workflows and evaluate its effects on decision-making processes and patient outcomes.

Machine-learning predictions for acute kidney injuries after coronary artery bypass grafting: a real-life muticenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery is associated with poor outcomes. The objective of this study was to apply a new machine learning (ML) method to establish prediction models of AKI after CABG.

METHODS

A total of 2,780 patients from two medical centers in East China who underwent primary isolated CABG were enrolled. The dataset was randomly divided for model training (80%) and model testing (20%). Four ML models based on LightGBM, Support vector machine (SVM), Softmax and random forest (RF) algorithms respectively were established in Python. A total of 2,051 patients from two other medical centers were assigned to an external validation group to verify the performances of the ML prediction models. The models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic, Bland-Altman plots, and decision curve analysis. The outcome of the LightGBM model was interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

RESULTS

The incidence of postoperative AKI in the modeling group was 13.4%. Similarly, the incidence of postoperative AKI of the two medical centers in the external validation group was 8.2% and 13.6% respectively. LightGBM performed the best in predicting, with an AUC of 0.8027 in internal validation group and 0.8798 and 0.7801 in the external validation group. The SHAP revealed the top 20 predictors of postoperative AKI ranked according to the importance, and the top three features on prediction were the serum creatinine in the first 24 h after operation, the last preoperative Scr level, and body surface area.

CONCLUSION

This study provides a LightGBM predictive model that can make accurate predictions for AKI after CABG surgery. The LightGBM model shows good predictive ability in both internal and external validation. It can help cardiac surgeons identify high-risk patients who may experience AKI after CABG surgery.

Risk factor mining and prediction of urine protein progression in chronic kidney disease: a machine learning- based study

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global public health concern. Therefore, to provide timely intervention for non-hospitalized high-risk patients and rationally allocate limited clinical resources is important to mine the key factors when designing a CKD prediction model.

METHODS

This study included data from 1,358 patients with CKD pathologically confirmed during the period from December 2017 to September 2020 at Zhongshan Hospital. A CKD prediction interpretation framework based on machine learning was proposed. From among 100 variables, 17 were selected for the model construction through a recursive feature elimination with logistic regression feature screening. Several machine learning classifiers, including extreme gradient boosting, gaussian-based naive bayes, a neural network, ridge regression, and linear model logistic regression (LR), were trained, and an ensemble model was developed to predict 24-hour urine protein. The detailed relationship between the risk of CKD progression and these predictors was determined using a global interpretation. A patient-specific analysis was conducted using a local interpretation.

RESULTS

The results showed that LR achieved the best performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850 in a single machine learning model. The ensemble model constructed using the voting integration method further improved the AUC to 0.856. The major predictors of moderate-to-severe severity included lower levels of 25-OH-vitamin, albumin, transferrin in males, and higher levels of cystatin C.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the clinical single kidney function evaluation indicators (eGFR, Scr), the machine learning model proposed in this study improved the prediction accuracy of CKD progression by 17.6% and 24.6%, respectively, and the AUC was improved by 0.250 and 0.236, respectively. Our framework can achieve a good predictive interpretation and provide effective clinical decision support.

Predicting HIV infection in the decade (2005-2015) pre-COVID-19 in Zimbabwe: A supervised classification-based machine learning approach

The burden of HIV and related diseases have been areas of great concern pre and post the emergence of COVID-19 in Zimbabwe. Machine learning models have been used to predict the risk of diseases, including HIV accurately. Therefore, this paper aimed to determine common risk factors of HIV positivity in Zimbabwe between the decade 2005 to 2015. The data were from three two staged population five-yearly surveys conducted between 2005 and 2015. The outcome variable was HIV status. The prediction model was fit by adopting 80% of the data for learning/training and 20% for testing/prediction. Resampling was done using the stratified 5-fold cross-validation procedure repeatedly. Feature selection was done using Lasso regression, and the best combination of selected features was determined using Sequential Forward Floating Selection. We compared six algorithms in both sexes based on the F1 score, which is the harmonic mean of precision and recall. The overall HIV prevalence for the combined dataset was 22.5% and 15.3% for females and males, respectively. The best-performing algorithm to identify individuals with a higher likelihood of HIV infection was XGBoost, with a high F1 score of 91.4% for males and 90.1% for females based on the combined surveys. The results from the prediction model identified six common features associated with HIV, with total number of lifetime sexual partners and cohabitation duration being the most influential variables for females and males, respectively. In addition to other risk reduction techniques, machine learning may aid in identifying those who might require Pre-exposure prophylaxis, particularly women who experience intimate partner violence. Furthermore, compared to traditional statistical approaches, machine learning uncovered patterns in predicting HIV infection with comparatively reduced uncertainty and, therefore, crucial for effective decision-making.

Prediction for chronic kidney disease by categorical and non_categorical attributes using different machine learning algorithms

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common disease as it is difficult to diagnose early due to its lack of symptoms. The main goal is to first diagnose kidney failure, which is a requirement for dialysis or a kidney transplant. This model teaches patients how to live a healthy life, helps doctors identify the risk and severity of disease, and how plan future treatments. Machine learning algorithms are often used in health care to predict and manage the disease. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for the early detection of CKD, which has three parts: (a) applying baseline classifiers on categorical attributes, (b) applying baseline classifiers on non_categorical attributes, (c) applying baseline classifiers on both categorical and non_categorical attributes, and (d) improving the results of the proposed model by combing the results of above three classifiers based on a majority vote. The proposed model based on baseline classifiers and the majority voting method shows a 3% increase in accuracy over the other existing models. The results provide support for increased accuracy in the current classification of chronic kidney disease.

Assessment and quantification of ovarian reserve on the basis of machine learning models

Background

Early detection of ovarian aging is of huge importance, although no ideal marker or acknowledged evaluation system exists. The purpose of this study was to develop a better prediction model to assess and quantify ovarian reserve using machine learning methods.

Methods

This is a multicenter, nationwide population-based study including a total of 1,020 healthy women. For these healthy women, their ovarian reserve was quantified in the form of ovarian age, which was assumed equal to their chronological age, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select features to construct models. Seven machine learning methods, namely artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), generalized linear model (GLM), K-nearest neighbors regression (KNN), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) were applied to construct prediction models separately. Pearson's correlation coefficient (PCC), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean squared error (MSE) were used to compare the efficiency and stability of these models.

Results

Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and antral follicle count (AFC) were detected to have the highest absolute PCC values of 0.45 and 0.43 with age and held similar age distribution curves. The LightGBM model was thought to be the most suitable model for ovarian age after ranking analysis, combining PCC, MAE, and MSE values. The LightGBM model obtained PCC values of 0.82, 0.56, and 0.70 for the training set, the test set, and the entire dataset, respectively. The LightGBM method still held the lowest MAE and cross-validated MSE values. Further, in two different age groups (20-35 and >35 years), the LightGBM model also obtained the lowest MAE value of 2.88 for women between the ages of 20 and 35 years and the second lowest MAE value of 5.12 for women over the age of 35 years.

Conclusion

Machine learning methods combining multi-features were reliable in assessing and quantifying ovarian reserve, and the LightGBM method turned out to be the approach with the best result, especially in the child-bearing age group of 20 to 35 years.

ESKD Risk Prediction Model in a Multicenter Chronic Kidney Disease Cohort in China: A Derivation, Validation, and Comparison Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

In light of the growing burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD), it is of particular importance to create disease prediction models that can assist healthcare providers in identifying cases of CKD individual risk and integrate risk-based care for disease progress management. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a new pragmatic end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) risk prediction utilizing the Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) and machine learning (ML).

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND MEASUREMENTS

The Chinese Cohort Study of Chronic Kidney Disease (C-STRIDE), a multicenter CKD cohort in China, was employed as the model's training and testing datasets, with a split ratio of 7:3. A cohort from Peking University First Hospital (PKUFH cohort) served as the external validation dataset. The participants' laboratory tests in those cohorts were conducted at PKUFH. We included individuals with CKD stages 1~4 at baseline. The incidence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) was defined as the outcome. We constructed the Peking University-CKD (PKU-CKD) risk prediction model employing the Cox and ML methods, which include extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and survival support vector machine (SSVM). These models discriminate metrics by applying Harrell's concordance index (Harrell's C-index) and Uno's concordance (Uno's C). The calibration performance was measured by the Brier score and plots.

RESULTS

Of the 3216 C-STRIDE and 342 PKUFH participants, 411 (12.8%) and 25 (7.3%) experienced KRT with mean follow-up periods of 4.45 and 3.37 years, respectively. The features included in the PKU-CKD model were age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR), albumin, hemoglobin, medical history of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and hypertension. In the test dataset, the values of the Cox model for Harrell's C-index, Uno's C-index, and Brier score were 0.834, 0.833, and 0.065, respectively. The XGBoost algorithm values for these metrics were 0.826, 0.825, and 0.066, respectively. The SSVM model yielded values of 0.748, 0.747, and 0.070, respectively, for the above parameters. The comparative analysis revealed no significant difference between XGBoost and Cox, in terms of Harrell's C, Uno's C, and the Brier score (p = 0.186, 0.213, and 0.41, respectively) in the test dataset. The SSVM model was significantly inferior to the previous two models (p < 0.001), in terms of discrimination and calibration. The validation dataset showed that XGBoost was superior to Cox, regarding Harrell's C, Uno's C, and the Brier score (p = 0.003, 0.027, and 0.032, respectively), while Cox and SSVM were almost identical concerning these three parameters (p = 0.102, 0.092, and 0.048, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a new ESKD risk prediction model for patients with CKD, employing commonly measured indicators in clinical practice, and its overall performance was satisfactory. The conventional Cox regression and certain ML models exhibited equal accuracy in predicting the course of CKD.

A nomogram for predicting the 4-year risk of chronic kidney disease among Chinese elderly adults

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become a major public health problem across the globe, leading to various complications. This study aimed to construct a nomogram to predict the 4-year risk of CKD among Chinese adults.

METHODS

The study was based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). A total of 3562 participants with complete information in CHARLS2011 and CHARLS2015 were included, and further divided into the training cohort and the validation cohort by a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to select variables of the nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated by receiver-operating characteristic curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In all, 2494 and 1068 participants were included in the training cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. A total of 413 participants developed CKD in the following 4 years. Five variables selected by multivariate logistic regression were incorporated in the nomogram, consisting of gender, hypertension, the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), hemoglobin, and Cystatin C. The area under curve was 0.809 and 0.837 in the training cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration plots showed agreement between the nomogram-predicted probability and the observed probability. DCA indicated that the nomogram had potential clinical use.

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive nomogram was established and internally validated in aid of identifying individuals at increased risk of CKD.

Machine learning-based multimodal MRI texture analysis for assessing renal function and fibrosis in diabetic nephropathy: a retrospective study

Introduction

Diabetic nephropathy (DN) has become a major public health burden in China. A more stable method is needed to reflect the different stages of renal function impairment. We aimed to determine the possible practicability of machine learning (ML)-based multimodal MRI texture analysis (mMRI-TA) for assessing renal function in DN.

Methods

For this retrospective study, 70 patients (between 1 January 2013 and 1 January 2020) were included and randomly assigned to the training cohort (n1 = 49) and the testing cohort (n2 = 21). According to the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), patients were assigned into the normal renal function (normal-RF) group, the non-severe renal function impairment (non-sRI) group, and the severe renal function impairment (sRI) group. Based on the largest coronal image of T2WI, the speeded up robust features (SURF) algorithm was used for texture feature extraction. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and relief and recursive feature elimination (RFE) were applied to select the important features and then support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), and random forest (RF) algorithms were used for the model construction. The values of area under the curve (AUC) on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used to assess their performance. The robust T2WI model was selected to construct a multimodal MRI model by combining the measured BOLD (blood oxygenation level-dependent) and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) values.

Results

The mMRI-TA model achieved robust and excellent performance in classifying the sRI group, non-sRI group, and normal-RF group, with an AUC of 0.978 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.963, 0.993), 0.852 (95% CI: 0.798, 0.902), and 0.972 (95% CI: 0.995, 1.000), respectively, in the training cohort and 0.961 (95% CI: 0.853, 1.000), 0.809 (95% CI: 0.600, 0.980), and 0.850 (95% CI: 0.638, 0.988), respectively, in the testing cohort.

Discussion

The model built from multimodal MRI on DN outperformed other models in assessing renal function and fibrosis. Compared to the single T2WI sequence, mMRI-TA can improve the performance in assessing renal function.

Machine-learning-based Web system for the prediction of chronic kidney disease progression and mortality

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients have high risks of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and pre-ESKD death. Therefore, accurately predicting these outcomes is useful among CKD patients, especially in those who are at high risk. Thus, we evaluated whether a machine-learning system can predict accurately these risks in CKD patients and attempted its application by developing a Web-based risk-prediction system. We developed 16 risk-prediction machine-learning models using Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting with 22 variables or selected variables for the prediction of the primary outcome (ESKD or death) on the basis of repeatedly measured data of CKD patients (n = 3,714; repeatedly measured data, n = 66,981) in their electronic-medical records. The performances of the models were evaluated using data from a cohort study of CKD patients carried out over 3 years (n = 26,906). One RF model with 22 variables and another RF model with 8 variables of time-series data showed high accuracies of the prediction of the outcomes and were selected for use in a risk-prediction system. In the validation, the 22- and 8-variable RF models showed high C-statistics for the prediction of the outcomes: 0.932 (95% CI 0.916, 0.948) and 0.93 (0.915, 0.945), respectively. Cox proportional hazards models using splines showed a highly significant relationship between the high probability and high risk of an outcome (p<0.0001). Moreover, the risks of patients with high probabilities were higher than those with low probabilities: 22-variable model, hazard ratio of 104.9 (95% CI 70.81, 155.3); 8-variable model, 90.9 (95% CI 62.29, 132.7). Then, a Web-based risk-prediction system was actually developed for the implementation of the models in clinical practice. This study showed that a machine-learning-based Web system is a useful tool for the risk prediction and treatment of CKD patients.

Comparative Study of Chronic Kidney Disease Predictor Performance Given Insufficient Training Dataset

This study compares the performance of Logistic Regression and Classification and Regression Tree model implementations in predicting chronic kidney disease outcomes from predictor variables, given insufficient training data. Imputation of missing data was performed using a technique based on k-nearest neighbours. The dataset was arbitrarily split into 10 % training set and 90 % test set to simulate a dearth of training data. Accuracy was mainly considered for the quantitative performance assessment together with ROC curves, area under the ROC curve values and confusion matrix pairs. Validation of the results was done using a shuffled 5-fold cross-validation procedure. Logistic regression produced an average accuracy of about 99 % compared to about 97 % the decision tree produced.

Development of Machine Learning Tools for Predicting Coronary Artery Disease in the Chinese Population

Purpose. Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the major cardiovascular diseases and the leading cause of death globally. Blood lipid profile is associated with CAD early risk. Therefore, we aim to establish machine learning models utilizing blood lipid profile to predict CAD risk. Methods. In this study, 193 non-CAD controls and 2001 newly-diagnosed CAD patients (1647 CAD patients who received lipid-lowering therapy and 354 who did not) were recruited. Clinical data and the result of routine blood lipids tests were collected. Moreover, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) subfractions (LDLC-1 to LDLC-7) were classified and quantified using the Lipoprint system. Six predictive models (k-nearest neighbor classifier (KNN), logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)) were established and evaluated by the confusion matrix, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), recall (sensitivity), accuracy, precision, and F1 score. The selected features were analyzed and ranked. Results. While predicting the CAD development risk of the CAD patients without lipid-lowering therapy in the test set, all models obtained AUC values above 0.94, and the accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score were above 0.84, 0.85, 0.92, and 0.88, respectively. While predicting the CAD development risk of all CAD patients in the test set, all models obtained AUC values above 0.91, and the accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score were above 0.87, 0.94, 0.87, and 0.92, respectively. Importantly, small dense LDL-C (sdLDL-C) and LDLC-4 play pivotal roles in predicting CAD risk. Conclusions. In the present study, machine learning tools combining both clinical data and blood lipid profile showed excellent overall predictive power. It suggests that machine learning tools are suitable for predicting the risk of CAD development in the near future.

Prediction of chronic kidney disease and its progression by artificial intelligence algorithms

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Aim of nephrologists is to delay the outcome and reduce the number of patients undergoing renal failure (RF) by applying prevention protocols and accurately monitoring chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. General practitioners and nephrologists are involved in the first and in the late stages of the disease, respectively. Early diagnosis of CKD is an important step in preventing the progression of kidney damage. Our aim was to review publications on machine learning algorithms (MLAs) that can predict early CKD and its progression.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and selected 55 articles on the application of MLAs in CKD. PubMed, Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and IEEE Xplore Digital Library of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers were searched. The search terms were chronic kidney disease, artificial intelligence, data mining and machine learning algorithms.

RESULTS

MLAs use enormous numbers of predictors combining them in non-linear and highly interactive ways. This ability increases when new data is added. We observed some limitations in the publications: (i) databases were not accurately reviewed by physicians; (ii) databases did not report the ethnicity of the patients; (iii) some databases collected variables that were not important for the diagnosis and progression of CKD; (iv) no information was presented on the native kidney disease causing CKD; (v) no validation of the results in external independent cohorts was provided; and (vi) no insights were given on the MLAs that were used. Overall, there was limited collaboration among experts in electronics, computer science and physicians.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of MLAs in kidney diseases may enhance the ability of clinicians to predict CKD and RF, thus improving diagnostic assistance and providing suitable therapeutic decisions. However, it is necessary to improve the development process of MLA tools.

Individualized prediction of chronic kidney disease for the elderly in longevity areas in China: Machine learning approaches

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become a major public health problem worldwide and has caused a huge social and economic burden, especially in developing countries. No previous study has used machine learning (ML) methods combined with longitudinal data to predict the risk of CKD development in 2 years amongst the elderly in China.

Methods

This study was based on the panel data of 925 elderly individuals in the 2012 baseline survey and 2014 follow-up survey of the Healthy Aging and Biomarkers Cohort Study (HABCS) database. Six ML models, logistic regression (LR), lasso regression, random forests (RF), gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT), support vector machine (SVM), and deep neural network (DNN), were developed to predict the probability of CKD amongst the elderly in 2 years (the year of 2014). The decision curve analysis (DCA) provided a range of threshold probability of the outcome and the net benefit of each ML model.

Results

Amongst the 925 elderly in the HABCS 2014 survey, 289 (18.8%) had CKD. Compared with the other models, LR, lasso regression, RF, GBDT, and DNN had no statistical significance of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) value (>0.7), and SVM exhibited the lowest predictive performance (AUC = 0.633, p-value = 0.057). DNN had the highest positive predictive value (PPV) (0.328), whereas LR had the lowest (0.287). DCA results indicated that within the threshold ranges of ~0-0.03 and 0.37-0.40, the net benefit of GBDT was the largest. Within the threshold ranges of ~0.03-0.10 and 0.26-0.30, the net benefit of RF was the largest. Age was the most important predictor variable in the RF and GBDT models. Blood urea nitrogen, serum albumin, uric acid, body mass index (BMI), marital status, activities of daily living (ADL)/instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and gender were crucial in predicting CKD in the elderly.

Conclusion

The ML model could successfully capture the linear and nonlinear relationships of risk factors for CKD in the elderly. The decision support system based on the predictive model in this research can help medical staff detect and intervene in the health of the elderly early.

A Machine Learning Model to Predict Cardiovascular Events during Exercise Evaluation in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease

OBJECTIVE

To develop and optimize a machine learning prediction model for cardiovascular events during exercise evaluation in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD).

METHODS

16,645 cases of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) conducted in patients with CHD from January 2016 to September 2019 were retrospectively included. Clinical data before testing and data during exercise were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

Cardiovascular events occurred during 505 CPETs (3.0%). No death was reported. Predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). AUCs for the SVM, logistic regression, GBDT and XGBoost were 0.686, 0.778, 0.784, and 0.794 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning methods (especially XGBoost) can effectively predict cardiovascular events during exercise evaluation in CHD patients. Cardiovascular events were associated with age, male, diabetes and duration of diabetes, myocardial infarction history, smoking history, hyperlipidemia history, hypertension history, oxygen uptake, and ventilation efficiency indicators.

Clinlabomics: leveraging clinical laboratory data by data mining strategies

The recent global focus on big data in medicine has been associated with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in diagnosis and decision-making following recent advances in computer technology. Up to now, AI has been applied to various aspects of medicine, including disease diagnosis, surveillance, treatment, predicting future risk, targeted interventions and understanding of the disease. There have been plenty of successful examples in medicine of using big data, such as radiology and pathology, ophthalmology cardiology and surgery. Combining medicine and AI has become a powerful tool to change health care, and even to change the nature of disease screening in clinical diagnosis. As all we know, clinical laboratories produce large amounts of testing data every day and the clinical laboratory data combined with AI may establish a new diagnosis and treatment has attracted wide attention. At present, a new concept of radiomics has been created for imaging data combined with AI, but a new definition of clinical laboratory data combined with AI has lacked so that many studies in this field cannot be accurately classified. Therefore, we propose a new concept of clinical laboratory omics (Clinlabomics) by combining clinical laboratory medicine and AI. Clinlabomics can use high-throughput methods to extract large amounts of feature data from blood, body fluids, secretions, excreta, and cast clinical laboratory test data. Then using the data statistics, machine learning, and other methods to read more undiscovered information. In this review, we have summarized the application of clinical laboratory data combined with AI in medical fields. Undeniable, the application of Clinlabomics is a method that can assist many fields of medicine but still requires further validation in a multi-center environment and laboratory.

Nomogram-Based Chronic Kidney Disease Prediction Model for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Patients Using Routine Pathological Data

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients are a significant threat to chronic kidney disease (CKD) development during their life. However, there is always a high chance of delay in CKD detection because CKD can be asymptomatic, and T1DM patients bypass traditional CKD tests during their routine checkups. This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model and nomogram of CKD in T1DM patients using readily available routine checkup data for early CKD detection. This research utilized 1375 T1DM patients’ sixteen years of longitudinal data from multi-center Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) clinical trials conducted at 28 sites in the USA and Canada and considered 17 routinely available features. Three feature ranking algorithms, extreme gradient boosting (XGB), random forest (RF), and extremely randomized trees classifier (ERT), were applied to create three feature ranking lists, and logistic regression analyses were performed to develop CKD prediction models using these ranked feature lists to identify the best performing top-ranked features combination. Finally, the most significant features were selected to develop a multivariate logistic regression-based CKD prediction model for T1DM patients. This model was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1 score on train and test data. A nomogram of the final model was further generated for easy application in clinical practices. Hypertension, duration of diabetes, drinking habit, triglycerides, ACE inhibitors, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, age, and smoking habit were the top-8 features ranked by the XGB model and identified as the most important features for predicting CKD in T1DM patients. These eight features were selected to develop the final prediction model using multivariate logistic regression, which showed 90.04% and 88.59% accuracy in internal and test data validation. The proposed model showed excellent performance and can be used for CKD identification in T1DM patients during routine checkups.

Construction of machine learning tools to predict threatened miscarriage in the first trimester based on AEA, progesterone and β-hCG in China: a multicentre, observational, case-control study

Background

Endocannabinoid anandamide (AEA), progesterone (P4) and β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-hCG) are associated with the threatened miscarriage in the early stage. However, no study has investigated whether combing these three hormones could predict threatened miscarriage. Thus, we aim to establish machine learning models utilizing these three hormones to predict threatened miscarriage risk.

Methods

This is a multicentre, observational, case-control study involving 215 pregnant women. We recruited 119 normal pregnant women and 96 threatened miscarriage pregnant women including 58 women with ongoing pregnancy and 38 women with inevitable miscarriage. P4 and β-hCG levels were detected by chemiluminescence immunoassay assay. The level of AEA was tested by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Six predictive machine learning models were established and evaluated by the confusion matrix, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), accuracy and precision.

Results

The median concentration of AEA was significantly lower in the healthy pregnant women group than that in the threatened miscarriage group, while the median concentration of P4 was significantly higher in the normal pregnancy group than that in the threatened miscarriage group. Only the median level of P4 was significantly lower in the inevitable miscarriage group than that in the ongoing pregnancy group. Moreover, AEA is strongly positively correlated with threatened miscarriage, while P4 is negatively correlated with both threatened miscarriage and inevitable miscarriage. Interestingly, AEA and P4 are negatively correlated with each other. Among six models, logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models obtained the AUC values of 0.75, 0.70 and 0.70, respectively; and their accuracy and precision were all above 0.60. Among these three models, the LR model showed the highest accuracy (0.65) and precision (0.70) to predict threatened miscarriage.

Conclusions

The LR model showed the highest overall predictive power, thus machine learning combined with the level of AEA, P4 and β-hCG might be a new approach to predict the threatened miscarriage risk in the near feature.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-022-05025-y.

Artificial Intelligence in Acute Kidney Injury Prediction

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in nephrology and its associated clinical research is growing. Recent years have seen increased interest in utilizing AI to predict the development of hospital-based acute kidney injury (AKI). Several AI techniques have been employed to improve the ability to detect AKI across a variety of hospitalized settings. This review discusses the evolutions of AKI risk prediction discussing the static risk assessment models of yesteryear as well as the more recent trend toward AI and advanced learning techniques. We discuss the relative improvement in AKI detection as well as the relative dearth of data around the clinical implementation and patient outcomes using these models. The use of AI for AKI detection and clinical care is in its infancy, and this review describes how we arrived at our current position and hints at the promise of the future.

Recent Advances and Future Perspectives in the Use of Machine Learning and Mathematical Models in Nephrology

We reviewed some of the latest advancements in the use of mathematical models in nephrology. We looked over 2 distinct categories of mathematical models that are widely used in biological research and pointed out some of their strengths and weaknesses when applied to health care, especially in the context of nephrology. A mechanistic dynamical system allows the representation of causal relations among the system variables but with a more complex and longer development/implementation phase. Artificial intelligence/machine learning provides predictive tools that allow identifying correlative patterns in large data sets, but they are usually harder-to-interpret black boxes. Chronic kidney disease (CKD), a major worldwide health problem, generates copious quantities of data that can be leveraged by choice of the appropriate model; also, there is a large number of dialysis parameters that need to be determined at every treatment session that can benefit from predictive mechanistic models. Following important steps in the use of mathematical methods in medical science might be in the intersection of seemingly antagonistic frameworks, by leveraging the strength of each to provide better care.

Machine learning algorithms' accuracy in predicting kidney disease progression: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Kidney disease progression rates vary among patients. Rapid and accurate prediction of kidney disease outcomes is crucial for disease management. In recent years, various prediction models using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been established in nephrology. However, their accuracy have been inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of ML algorithms for kidney disease progression.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, the Chinese Biomedicine Literature Database, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Database, and the VIP Database for diagnostic studies on ML algorithms' accuracy in predicting kidney disease prognosis, from the establishment of these databases until October 2020. Two investigators independently evaluate study quality by QUADAS-2 tool and extracted data from single ML algorithm for data synthesis using the bivariate model and the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) model.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies were left after screening, only 6 studies were eligible for data synthesis. The sample size of these 6 studies was 12,534, and the kidney disease types could be divided into chronic kidney disease (CKD) and Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy, with 5 articles using end-stage renal diseases occurrence as the primary outcome. The main results indicated that the area under curve (AUC) of the HSROC was 0.87 (0.84-0.90) and ML algorithm exhibited a strong specificity, 95% confidence interval and heterogeneity (I2) of (0.87, 0.84-0.90, [I2 99.0%]) and a weak sensitivity of (0.68, 0.58-0.77, [I2 99.7%]) in predicting kidney disease deterioration. And the the results of subgroup analysis indicated that ML algorithm's AUC for predicting CKD prognosis was 0.82 (0.79-0.85), with the pool sensitivity of (0.64, 0.49-0.77, [I2 99.20%]) and pool specificity of (0.84, 0.74-0.91, [I2 99.84%]). The ML algorithm's AUC for predicting IgA nephropathy prognosis was 0.78 (0.74-0.81), with the pool sensitivity of (0.74, 0.71-0.77, [I2 7.10%]) and pool specificity of (0.93, 0.91-0.95, [I2 83.92%]).

CONCLUSION

Taking advantage of big data, ML algorithm-based prediction models have high accuracy in predicting kidney disease progression, we recommend ML algorithms as an auxiliary tool for clinicians to determine proper treatment and disease management strategies.

Scoring model to predict risk of chronic kidney disease in Chinese health screening examinees with type 2 diabetes

PURPOSE

As health screening continues to increase in China, there is an opportunity to integrate a large number of demographic as well as subjective and objective clinical data into risk prediction modeling. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Chinese health screening examinees with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study consisting of 2051 Chinese T2DM patients between 35 and 78 years old who were enrolled in the XY3CKD Follow-up Program between 2009 and 2010. All participants were randomly assigned into a derivation set or a validation set at a 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression model was selected for the analysis of risk factors for the development of the proposed risk model of CKD. We established a prediction model with a scoring system following the steps proposed by the Framingham Heart Study.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up was 8.52 years, with a total of 315 (23.20%) and 189 (27.27%) incident CKD cases in the derivation set and validation set, respectively. We identified the following risk factors: age, gender, body mass index, duration of type 2 diabetes, variation of fasting blood glucose, stroke, and hypertension. The points were summed to obtain individual scores (from 0 to 15). The areas under the curve of 3-, 5- and 10-year CKD risks were 0.843, 0.799 and 0.780 in the derivation set and 0.871, 0.803 and 0.785 in the validation set, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed scoring system is a promising tool for further application of assisting Chinese medical staff for early prevention of T2DM complications among health screening examinees.

Rapid triage for ischemic stroke: a machine learning-driven approach in the context of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine

BACKGROUND

Recognising the early signs of ischemic stroke (IS) in emergency settings has been challenging. Machine learning (ML), a robust tool for predictive, preventive and personalised medicine (PPPM/3PM), presents a possible solution for this issue and produces accurate predictions for real-time data processing.

METHODS

This investigation evaluated 4999 IS patients among a total of 10,476 adults included in the initial dataset, and 1076 IS subjects among 3935 participants in the external validation dataset. Six ML-based models for the prediction of IS were trained on the initial dataset of 10,476 participants (split participants into a training set [80%] and an internal validation set [20%]). Selected clinical laboratory features routinely assessed at admission were used to inform the models. Model performance was mainly evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve. Additional techniques-permutation feature importance (PFI), local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME), and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)-were applied for explaining the black-box ML models.

RESULTS

Fifteen routine haematological and biochemical features were selected to establish ML-based models for the prediction of IS. The XGBoost-based model achieved the highest predictive performance, reaching AUCs of 0.91 (0.90-0.92) and 0.92 (0.91-0.93) in the internal and external datasets respectively. PFI globally revealed that demographic feature age, routine haematological parameters, haemoglobin and neutrophil count, and biochemical analytes total protein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were more influential on the model's prediction. LIME and SHAP showed similar local feature attribution explanations.

CONCLUSION

In the context of PPPM/3PM, we used the selected predictors obtained from the results of common blood tests to develop and validate ML-based models for the diagnosis of IS. The XGBoost-based model offers the most accurate prediction. By incorporating the individualised patient profile, this prediction tool is simple and quick to administer. This is promising to support subjective decision making in resource-limited settings or primary care, thereby shortening the time window for the treatment, and improving outcomes after IS.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-022-00283-4.

Machine learning to predict end stage kidney disease in chronic kidney disease

The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of machine learning (ML) in predicting the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) from patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Data were obtained from a longitudinal CKD cohort. Predictor variables included patients' baseline characteristics and routine blood test results. The outcome of interest was the presence or absence of ESKD by the end of 5 years. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Five ML algorithms, including logistic regression, naïve Bayes, random forest, decision tree, and K-nearest neighbors were trained and tested using fivefold cross-validation. The performance of each model was compared to that of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). The dataset contained 748 CKD patients recruited between April 2006 and March 2008, with the follow-up time of 6.3 ± 2.3 years. ESKD was observed in 70 patients (9.4%). Three ML models, including the logistic regression, naïve Bayes and random forest, showed equivalent predictability and greater sensitivity compared to the KFRE. The KFRE had the highest accuracy, specificity, and precision. This study showed the feasibility of ML in evaluating the prognosis of CKD based on easily accessible features. Three ML models with adequate performance and sensitivity scores suggest a potential use for patient screenings. Future studies include external validation and improving the models with additional predictor variables.

Obesity-Associated Differentially Methylated Regions in Colon Cancer

Obesity with adiposity is a common disorder in modern days, influenced by environmental factors such as eating and lifestyle habits and affecting the epigenetics of adipose-based gene regulations and metabolic pathways in colorectal cancer (CRC). We compared epigenetic changes of differentially methylated regions (DMR) of genes in colon tissues of 225 colon cancer cases (154 non-obese and 71 obese) and 15 healthy non-obese controls by accessing The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data. We applied machine-learning-based analytics including generalized regression (GR) as a confirmatory validation model to identify the factors that could contribute to DMRs impacting colon cancer to enhance prediction accuracy. We found that age was a significant predictor in obese cancer patients, both alone (p = 0.003) and interacting with hypomethylated DMRs of ZBTB46, a tumor suppressor gene (p = 0.008). DMRs of three additional genes: HIST1H3I (p = 0.001), an oncogene with a hypomethylated DMR in the promoter region; SRGAP2C (p = 0.006), a tumor suppressor gene with a hypermethylated DMR in the promoter region; and NFATC4 (p = 0.006), an adipocyte differentiating oncogene with a hypermethylated DMR in an intron region, are also significant predictors of cancer in obese patients, independent of age. The genes affected by these DMR could be potential novel biomarkers of colon cancer in obese patients for cancer prevention and progression.

Comparison Between Statistical Model and Machine Learning Methods for Predicting the Risk of Renal Function Decline Using Routine Clinical Data in Health Screening

Purpose

Using machine learning method to predict and judge unknown data offers opportunity to improve accuracy by exploring complex interactions between risk factors. Therefore, we evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) algorithms and to compare them with logistic regression for predicting the risk of renal function decline (RFD) using routine clinical data.

Patients and Methods

This retrospective cohort study includes datasets from 2166 subjects, aged 35–74 years old, provided by an adult health screening follow-up program between 2010 and 2020. Seven different ML models were considered – random forest, gradient boosting, multilayer perceptron, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors, adaptive boosting, and decision tree - and were compared with standard logistic regression. There were 24 independent variables, and the baseline estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was used as the predictive variable.

Results

A total of 2166 participants (mean age 49.2±11.2 years old, 63.3% males) were enrolled and randomly divided into a training set (n=1732) and a test set (n=434). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for detecting RFD corresponding to the different models were above 0.85 during the training phase. The gradient boosting algorithms exhibited the best average prediction accuracy (AUROC: 0.914) among all algorithms validated in this study. Based on AUROC, the ML algorithms improved the RFD prediction performance, compared to logistic regression model (AUROC:0.882), except the K-nearest neighbors and decision tree algorithms (AUROC:0.854 and 0.824, respectively). However, the improvement differences with logistic regression were small (less than 4%) and nonsignificant.

Conclusion

Our results indicate that the proposed health screening dataset-based RFD prediction model using ML algorithms is readily applicable, produces validated results. But logistic regression yields as good performance as ML models to predict the risk of RFD with simple clinical predictors.

VEGF-A-related genetic variants protect against Alzheimer's disease

The Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype has been shown to be the strongest genetic risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Moreover, both the lipolysis-stimulated lipoprotein receptor (LSR) and the vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A) are involved in the development of AD. The aim of the study was to develop a prediction model for AD including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) of APOE, LSR and VEGF-A-related variants.

The population consisted of 323 individuals (143 AD cases and 180 controls). Genotyping was performed for: the APOE common polymorphism (rs429358 and rs7412), two LSR variants (rs34259399 and rs916147) and 10 VEGF-A-related SNPs (rs6921438, rs7043199, rs6993770, rs2375981, rs34528081, rs4782371, rs2639990, rs10761741, rs114694170, rs1740073), previously identified as genetic determinants of VEGF-A levels in GWAS studies. The prediction model included direct and epistatic interaction effects, age and sex and was developed using the elastic net machine learning methodology.

An optimal model including the direct effect of the APOE e4 allele, age and eight epistatic interactions between APOE and LSR, APOE and VEGF-A-related variants was developed with an accuracy of 72%. Two epistatic interactions (rs7043199*rs6993770 and rs2375981*rs34528081) were the strongest protective factors against AD together with the absence of ε4 APOE allele. Based on pathway analysis, the involved variants and related genes are implicated in neurological diseases.

In conclusion, this study demonstrated links between APOE, LSR and VEGF-A-related variants and the development of AD and proposed a model of nine genetic variants which appears to strongly influence the risk for AD.

Unsupervised machine learning for identifying important visual features through bag-of-words using histopathology data from chronic kidney disease

Pathologists use visual classification to assess patient kidney biopsy samples when diagnosing the underlying cause of kidney disease. However, the assessment is qualitative, or semi-quantitative at best, and reproducibility is challenging. To discover previously unknown features which predict patient outcomes and overcome substantial interobserver variability, we developed an unsupervised bag-of-words model. Our study applied to the C-PROBE cohort of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). 107,471 histopathology images were obtained from 161 biopsy cores and identified important morphological features in biopsy tissue that are highly predictive of the presence of CKD both at the time of biopsy and in one year. To evaluate the performance of our model, we estimated the AUC and its 95% confidence interval. We show that this method is reliable and reproducible and can achieve 0.93 AUC at predicting glomerular filtration rate at the time of biopsy as well as predicting a loss of function at one year. Additionally, with this method, we ranked the identified morphological features according to their importance as diagnostic markers for chronic kidney disease. In this study, we have demonstrated the feasibility of using an unsupervised machine learning method without human input in order to predict the level of kidney function in CKD. The results from our study indicate that the visual dictionary, or visual image pattern, obtained from unsupervised machine learning can predict outcomes using machine-derived values that correspond to both known and unknown clinically relevant features.

Identification and Classification of Parkinsonian and Essential Tremors for Diagnosis Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Due to overlapping tremor features, the medical diagnosis of Parkinson’s disease (PD) and essential tremor (ET) mainly relies on the clinical experience of doctors, which often leads to misdiagnosis. Seven predictive models using machine learning algorithms including random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), ridge classification (Ridge), backpropagation neural network (BP), and convolutional neural network (CNN) were evaluated and compared aiming to better differentiate between PD and ET by using accessible demographics and tremor information of the upper limbs. The tremor information including tremor acceleration and surface electromyogram (sEMG) signals were collected from 398 patients (PD = 257, ET = 141) and then were used to train the established models to separate PD and ET. The performance of the models was evaluated by indices of accuracy and area under the curve (AUC), which indicated the ensemble learning models including RF and XGBoost showed the best overall predictive ability with accuracy above 0.84 and AUC above 0.90. Furthermore, the relative importance of sex, age, four postures, and five tremor features was analyzed and ranked showing that the dominant frequency of sEMG of flexors, the average amplitude of sEMG of flexors, resting posture, and winging posture had a greater impact on the diagnosis of PD, whereas sex and age were less important. These results provide a reference for the intelligent diagnosis of PD and show promise for use in wearable tremor suppression devices.

Nomogram based on clinical and laboratory characteristics of euploid embryos using the data in PGT-A: a euploid-prediction model

BACKGROUND

The evaluation of embryo morphology may be inaccurate. A euploid prediction model is needed to provide the best and individualized counseling about embryo selection based on patients and embryo characteristics.

METHODS

Our objective was to develop a euploid-prediction model for evaluating blastocyst embryos, based on data from a large cohort of patients undergoing pre-implantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A). This retrospective, single-center cohort study included data from 1610 blastocysts which were performed PGT-A with known genetic outcomes. The study population was divided into the training and validation cohorts in a 3:1 ratio. The performance of the euploid-prediction model was quantified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). In addition, a nomogram was drawn to provide quantitative and convenient tools in predicting euploid.

RESULTS

We developed a reliable euploid-prediction model and can directly assess the probability of euploid with the AUC (95%CI) of 0.859 (0.834,0.872) in the training cohort, and 0.852 (0.831,0.879) in the validation cohort, respectively. The euploid-prediction model showed sensitivities of 0.903 and specificities of 0.578.

CONCLUSIONS

The euploid-prediction model is a reliable prediction model and can directly assess the probability of euploid.