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Anteneh LM, Lokonon BE, Kakaï RG. Modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology: A systematic and critical review. Math Biosci 2024; 373:109210. [PMID: 38777029 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109210] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2023] [Revised: 05/09/2024] [Accepted: 05/13/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
Diverse modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology have been developed and used to (1) study its transmission dynamics, (2) predict and manage cholera outbreaks, and (3) assess the impact of various control and mitigation measures. In this study, we carry out a critical and systematic review of various approaches used for modelling the dynamics of cholera. Also, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each modelling approach. A systematic search of articles was conducted in Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Taylor & Francis. Eligible studies were those concerned with the dynamics of cholera excluding studies focused on models for cholera transmission in animals, socio-economic factors, and genetic & molecular related studies. A total of 476 peer-reviewed articles met the inclusion criteria, with about 40% (32%) of the studies carried out in Asia (Africa). About 52%, 21%, and 9%, of the studies, were based on compartmental (e.g., SIRB), statistical (time series and regression), and spatial (spatiotemporal clustering) models, respectively, while the rest of the analysed studies used other modelling approaches such as network, machine learning and artificial intelligence, Bayesian, and agent-based approaches. Cholera modelling studies that incorporate vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen are scarce and a small portion of researchers (3.99%) considers the estimation of key epidemiological parameters. Vaccination only platform was utilized as a control measure in more than half (58%) of the studies. Research productivity in cholera epidemiological modelling studies have increased in recent years, but authors used diverse range of models. Future models should consider incorporating vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen and on the estimation of key epidemiological parameters for the transmission of cholera dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leul Mekonnen Anteneh
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin.
| | - Bruno Enagnon Lokonon
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin
| | - Romain Glèlè Kakaï
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin
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Ahmed AK, Sijercic VC, Akhtar MS, Elbayomy A, Marouf MA, Zeleke MS, Sayad R, Abdelshafi A, Laird NJ, El‐Mokhtar MA, Ruthig GR, Hetta HF. Cholera rages in Africa and the Middle East: A narrative review on challenges and solutions. Health Sci Rep 2024; 7:e2013. [PMID: 38742091 PMCID: PMC11089255 DOI: 10.1002/hsr2.2013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2023] [Revised: 02/27/2024] [Accepted: 03/12/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Background and Aim Cholera is a life-threatening infectious disease that is still one of the most common acute watery diarrheal diseases in the world today. Acute diarrhea and severe dehydration brought on by cholera can cause hypovolemic shock, which can be fatal in minutes. Without competent clinical therapy, the rate of case fatality surpasses 50%. The purpose of this review was to highlight cholera challenges in Africa and the Middle East and explain the reasons for why this region is currently a fertile environment for cholera. We investigated cholera serology, epidemiology, and the geographical distribution of cholera in Africa and the Middle East in 2022 and 2023. We reviewed detection methods, such as rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and treatments, such as antibiotics and phage therapy. Finally, this review explored oral cholera vaccines (OCVs), and the vaccine shortage crisis. Methods We carried out a systematic search in multiple databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus, MEDLINE, and Embase, for studies on cholera using the following keywords: ((Cholera) OR (Vibrio cholera) and (Coronavirus) OR (COVID-19) OR (SARS-CoV2) OR (The Middle East) OR (Africa)). Results and Conclusions Cholera outbreaks have increased dramatically, mainly in Africa and many Middle Eastern countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the attention devoted to cholera and disrupted diagnosis and treatment services, as well as vaccination initiatives. Most of the cholera cases in Africa and the Middle East were reported in Malawi and Syria, respectively, in 2022. RDTs are effective in the early detection of cholera epidemics, especially with limited advanced resources, which is the case in much of Africa. By offering both direct and indirect protection, expanding the use of OCV will significantly reduce the burden of current cholera outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Ahmed Elbayomy
- Faculty of MedicineMansoura UniversityMansouraEgypt
- School of Medicine and Public HealthUniversity of Wisconsin−MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Mohamed A. Marouf
- Faculty of MedicineMansoura UniversityMansouraEgypt
- Department of Internal Medicine, Morsani College of MedicineUniversity of South FloridaTampaFloridaUSA
| | - Mahlet S. Zeleke
- Menelik II Medical and Health Science CollegeKotebe Metropolitan UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
| | - Reem Sayad
- Faculty of MedicineAssiut UniversityAssiutEgypt
| | | | | | - Mohamed A. El‐Mokhtar
- Gilbert & Rose‐Marie Chagoury School of MedicineLebanese American UniversityByblosLebanon
| | | | - Helal F. Hetta
- Division of Microbiology and Immunology, Department of Natural Products and Alternative Medicine, Faculty of PharmacyUniversity of TabukTabukSaudi Arabia
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Baba IA, Humphries UW, Rihan FA. A Well-Posed Fractional Order Cholera Model with Saturated Incidence Rate. ENTROPY (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 25:360. [PMID: 36832726 PMCID: PMC9955935 DOI: 10.3390/e25020360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Revised: 01/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
A fractional-order cholera model in the Caputo sense is constructed. The model is an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The transmission dynamics of the disease are studied by incorporating the saturated incidence rate into the model. This is particularly important since assuming that the increase in incidence for a large number of infected individualsis equivalent to a small number of infected individualsdoes not make much sense. The positivity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness of the solution of the model are also studied. Equilibrium solutions are computed, and their stability analyses are shown to depend on a threshold quantity, the basic reproduction ratio (R0). It is clearly shown that if R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, whereas if R0>1, the endemic equilibrium exists and is locally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations are carried out to support the analytic results and to show the significance of the fractional order from the biological point of view. Furthermore, the significance of awareness is studied in the numerical section.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isa Abdullahi Baba
- Department of Mathematics, Bayero University, Kano 700241, Nigeria
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkuts University of Science and Technology Thonburi (KMUTT), Bangkok 10140, Thailand
| | - Usa Wannasingha Humphries
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkuts University of Science and Technology Thonburi (KMUTT), Bangkok 10140, Thailand
| | - Fathalla A. Rihan
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, United Arab Emirates
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Helwan University, Cairo 11795, Egypt
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Simpson RB, Babool S, Tarnas MC, Kaminski PM, Hartwick MA, Naumova EN. Signatures of Cholera Outbreak during the Yemeni Civil War, 2016-2019. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 19:ijerph19010378. [PMID: 35010649 PMCID: PMC8744546 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19010378] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2021] [Revised: 12/26/2021] [Accepted: 12/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) created a strategy for early outbreak detection, hotspot identification, and resource mobilization coordination in response to the Yemeni cholera epidemic. This strategy requires a systematic approach for defining and classifying outbreak signatures, or the profile of an epidemic curve and its features. We used publicly available data to quantify outbreak features of the ongoing cholera epidemic in Yemen and clustered governorates using an adaptive time series methodology. We characterized outbreak signatures and identified clusters using a weekly time series of cholera rates in 20 Yemeni governorates and nationally from 4 September 2016 through 29 December 2019 as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We quantified critical points and periods using Kolmogorov–Zurbenko adaptive filter methodology. We assigned governorates into six clusters sharing similar outbreak signatures, according to similarities in critical points, critical periods, and the magnitude of peak rates. We identified four national outbreak waves beginning on 12 September 2016, 6 March 2017, 28 May 2018, and 28 January 2019. Among six identified clusters, we classified a core regional hotspot in Sana’a, Sana’a City, and Al-Hudaydah—the expected origin of the national outbreak. The five additional clusters differed in Wave 2 and Wave 3 peak frequency, timing, magnitude, and geographic location. As of 29 December 2019, no governorates had returned to pre-Wave 1 levels. The detected similarity in outbreak signatures suggests potentially shared environmental and human-made drivers of infection; the heterogeneity in outbreak signatures implies the potential traveling waves outwards from the core regional hotspot that could be governed by factors that deserve further investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan B. Simpson
- Division of Nutrition Epidemiology and Data Science, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, 150 Harrison Avenue, Boston, MA 02111, USA; (P.M.K.); (M.A.H.)
- Correspondence: (R.B.S.); (E.N.N.); Tel.: +1-978-697-1037 (R.B.S.); +1-617-636-2927 (E.N.N.)
| | - Sofia Babool
- Department of Neuroscience, The University of Texas at Dallas, 800 W Campbell Road, Richardson, TX 75080, USA;
| | - Maia C. Tarnas
- Department of Community Health, School of Arts and Sciences, Tufts University, 574 Boston Avenue, Medford, MA 02155, USA;
| | - Paulina M. Kaminski
- Division of Nutrition Epidemiology and Data Science, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, 150 Harrison Avenue, Boston, MA 02111, USA; (P.M.K.); (M.A.H.)
| | - Meghan A. Hartwick
- Division of Nutrition Epidemiology and Data Science, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, 150 Harrison Avenue, Boston, MA 02111, USA; (P.M.K.); (M.A.H.)
| | - Elena N. Naumova
- Division of Nutrition Epidemiology and Data Science, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, 150 Harrison Avenue, Boston, MA 02111, USA; (P.M.K.); (M.A.H.)
- Correspondence: (R.B.S.); (E.N.N.); Tel.: +1-978-697-1037 (R.B.S.); +1-617-636-2927 (E.N.N.)
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Abstract
During infection, the rates of pathogen replication, death, and migration affect disease progression, dissemination, transmission, and resistance evolution. Here, we follow the population dynamics of Vibrio cholerae in a mouse model by labeling individual bacteria with one of >500 unique, fitness-neutral genomic tags. Using the changes in tag frequencies and CFU numbers, we inform a mathematical model that describes the within-host spatiotemporal bacterial dynamics. This allows us to disentangle growth, death, forward, and retrograde migration rates continuously during infection. Our model has robust predictive power across various experimental setups. The population dynamics of V. cholerae shows substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in replication, death, and migration. Importantly, we find that the niche available to V. cholerae in the host increases with inoculum size, suggesting cooperative effects during infection. Therefore, it is not enough to consider just the likelihood of exposure (50% infectious dose) but rather the magnitude of exposure to predict outbreaks. IMPORTANCE Determining the rates of bacterial migration, replication, and death during infection is important for understanding how infections progress. Separately measuring these rates is often difficult in systems where multiple processes happen simultaneously. Here, we use next-generation sequencing to measure V. cholerae migration, replication, death, and niche size along the mouse gastrointestinal tract. We show that the small intestine of the mouse is a heterogeneous environment, and the population dynamic characteristics change substantially between adjacent gut sections. Our approach also allows us to characterize the effect of inoculum size on these processes. We find that the niche size in mice increases with the infectious dose, hinting at cooperative effects in larger inocula. The dose-response relationship between inoculum size and final pathogen burden is important for the infected individual and is thought to influence the progression of V. cholerae epidemics.
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Usmani M, Brumfield KD, Jamal Y, Huq A, Colwell RR, Jutla A. A Review of the Environmental Trigger and Transmission Components for Prediction of Cholera. Trop Med Infect Dis 2021; 6:tropicalmed6030147. [PMID: 34449728 PMCID: PMC8396309 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed6030147] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2021] [Revised: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 07/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate variables influence the occurrence, growth, and distribution of Vibrio cholerae in the aquatic environment. Together with socio-economic factors, these variables affect the incidence and intensity of cholera outbreaks. The current pandemic of cholera began in the 1960s, and millions of cholera cases are reported each year globally. Hence, cholera remains a significant health challenge, notably where human vulnerability intersects with changes in hydrological and environmental processes. Cholera outbreaks may be epidemic or endemic, the mode of which is governed by trigger and transmission components that control the outbreak and spread of the disease, respectively. Traditional cholera risk assessment models, namely compartmental susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) type models, have been used to determine the predictive spread of cholera through the fecal–oral route in human populations. However, these models often fail to capture modes of infection via indirect routes, such as pathogen movement in the environment and heterogeneities relevant to disease transmission. Conversely, other models that rely solely on variability of selected environmental factors (i.e., examine only triggers) have accomplished real-time outbreak prediction but fail to capture the transmission of cholera within impacted populations. Since the mode of cholera outbreaks can transition from epidemic to endemic, a comprehensive transmission model is needed to achieve timely and reliable prediction with respect to quantitative environmental risk. Here, we discuss progression of the trigger module associated with both epidemic and endemic cholera, in the context of the autochthonous aquatic nature of the causative agent of cholera, V. cholerae, as well as disease prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moiz Usmani
- Geohealth and Hydrology Laboratory, Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32603, USA; (M.U.); (Y.J.); (A.J.)
| | - Kyle D. Brumfield
- Maryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA; (K.D.B.); (A.H.)
- University of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer Studies, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Yusuf Jamal
- Geohealth and Hydrology Laboratory, Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32603, USA; (M.U.); (Y.J.); (A.J.)
| | - Anwar Huq
- Maryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA; (K.D.B.); (A.H.)
| | - Rita R. Colwell
- Maryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA; (K.D.B.); (A.H.)
- University of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer Studies, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
- Correspondence:
| | - Antarpreet Jutla
- Geohealth and Hydrology Laboratory, Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32603, USA; (M.U.); (Y.J.); (A.J.)
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Abstract
Based on our deterministic models for cholera epidemics, we propose a stochastic model for cholera epidemics to incorporate environmental fluctuations which is a nonlinear system of Itô stochastic differential equations. We conduct an asymptotical analysis of dynamical behaviors for the model. The basic stochastic reproduction valueR s is defined in terms of the basic reproduction number R 0 for the corresponding deterministic model and noise intensities. The basic stochastic reproduction value determines the dynamical patterns of the stochastic model. WhenR s < 1 , the cholera infection will extinct within finite periods of time almost surely. WhenR s > 1 , the cholera infection will persist most of time, and there exists a unique stationary ergodic distribution to which all solutions of the stochastic model will approach almost surely as noise intensities are bounded. When the basic reproduction number R 0 for the corresponding deterministic model is greater than 1, and the noise intensities are large enough such thatR s < 1 , the cholera infection is suppressed by environmental noises. We carry out numerical simulations to illustrate our analysis, and to compare with the corresponding deterministic model. Biological implications are pointed out.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tuan Anh Phan
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, New Mexico State University, 1290 Frenger Mall, MSC 3MB / Science Hall 236, Las Cruces, New Mexico 88003-8001, United State of America
| | - Jianjun Paul Tian
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, New Mexico State University, 1290 Frenger Mall, MSC 3MB / Science Hall 236, Las Cruces, New Mexico 88003-8001, United State of America
| | - Bixiang Wang
- Department of Mathematics, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, 801 Leroy Pl, Socorro, NM 87801, United State of America
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Hezam IM, Foul A, Alrasheedi A. A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen. ADVANCES IN DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS 2021; 2021:108. [PMID: 33613669 PMCID: PMC7883970 DOI: 10.1186/s13662-021-03271-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2020] [Accepted: 02/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
In this work, we propose a new dynamic mathematical model framework governed by a system of differential equations that integrates both COVID-19 and cholera outbreaks. The estimations of the model parameters are based on the outbreaks of COVID-19 and cholera in Yemen from January 1, 2020 to May 30, 2020. Moreover, we present an optimal control model for minimizing both the number of infected people and the cost associated with each control. Four preventive measures are to be taken to control the outbreaks: social distancing, lockdown, the number of tests, and the number of chlorine water tablets (CWTs). Under the current conditions and resources available in Yemen, various policies are simulated to evaluate the optimal policy. The results obtained confirm that the policy of providing resources for the distribution of CWTs, providing sufficient resources for testing with an average social distancing, and quarantining of infected individuals has significant effects on flattening the epidemic curves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibrahim M Hezam
- Statistics and Operations Research Department, College of Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Mathematics, Ibb University, Ibb, Yemen
| | - Abdelaziz Foul
- Statistics and Operations Research Department, College of Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Adel Alrasheedi
- Statistics and Operations Research Department, College of Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
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Asadgol Z, Badirzadeh A, Niazi S, Mokhayeri Y, Kermani M, Mohammadi H, Gholami M. How climate change can affect cholera incidence and prevalence? A systematic review. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:34906-34926. [PMID: 32661979 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-09992-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/29/2020] [Accepted: 07/01/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Although the number of cholera infection decreased universally, climate change can potentially affect both incidence and prevalence rates of disease in endemic regions. There is considerable consistent evidence, explaining the associations between cholera and climatic variables. However, it is essentially required to compare and interpret these relationships globally. The aim of the present study was to carry out a systematic review in order to identify and appraise the literature concerning the relationship between nonanthropogenic climatic variabilities such as extreme weather- and ocean-related variables and cholera infection rates. The systematic literature review of studies was conducted by using determined search terms via four major electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus) according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach. This search focused on published articles in English-language up to December 31, 2018. A total of 43 full-text studies that met our criteria have been identified and included in our analysis. The reviewed studies demonstrated that cholera incidence is highly attributed to climatic variables, especially rainfall, temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The association between cholera incidence and climatic variables has been investigated by a variety of data analysis methodologies, most commonly time series analysis, generalized linear model (GLM), regression analysis, and spatial/GIS. The results of this study assist the policy-makers who provide the efforts for planning and prevention actions in the face of changing global climatic variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zahra Asadgol
- Research Center for Environmental Health Technology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Alireza Badirzadeh
- Department of Parasitology and Mycology, School of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sadegh Niazi
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Science and Engineering Faculty, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Yaser Mokhayeri
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Shahid Rahimi Hospital, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | - Majid Kermani
- Research Center for Environmental Health Technology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hamed Mohammadi
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran.
| | - Mitra Gholami
- Research Center for Environmental Health Technology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
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Lemos-Paião AP, Silva CJ, Torres DFM, Venturino E. Optimal Control of Aquatic Diseases: A Case Study of Yemen’s Cholera Outbreak. JOURNAL OF OPTIMIZATION THEORY AND APPLICATIONS 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s10957-020-01668-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
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Non-vaccine strategies for cholera prevention and control: India's preparedness for the global roadmap. Vaccine 2020; 38 Suppl 1:A167-A174. [PMID: 31443992 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.08.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2019] [Revised: 07/26/2019] [Accepted: 08/07/2019] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Recently World Health Organization's Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) has published a global roadmap for prevention and control of cholera. We review preparedness of existing governmental non-vaccine programs and strategies for cholera prevention and control in India. We also describe strengths and gaps in the context of implementation of the global roadmap. METHODS We reviewed published literature on non-vaccine based strategies for prevention and control of cholera in India and analyzed strengths and weaknesses of Government of India's major anti-cholera and ante-diarrhea initiatives under Integrated Disease Surveillance Program (IDSP), National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), and other disease surveillance platforms. RESULTS The first strategy of the WHO global roadmap, namely, preparedness for early detection and outbreak containment, has been addressed by the IDSP. NRHM complements IDSP activities by focusing on sanitation, hygiene, nutrition, and safe drinking water. We identified the need to adopt stricter case definitions and data validation protocols. Multi-sectoral approach to prevent cholera occurrences and re-occurrences [the second suggested strategy in the global roadmap], highlights identification of hotspots and implementing strategies based on transmission dynamics. We recommend development of comprehensive models by integrating data sources beyond the national programs to eliminate cholera hotspots in India. Implementing the third proposed strategy in the global roadmap, coordinated technical support, resource mobilization, and partnerships at local and global levels, has major challenges in India due to structural issues related to health systems and health programs. CONCLUSION Even with a robust public health infrastructure, absence of a national cholera program might have resulted in lack of specific focus and concerted efforts for cholera prevention and control in India. A National Taskforce for Cholera Control must develop India-specific 'National Cholera Prevention and Response Road Map' with an appropriate administrative and financially viable framework for its implementation.
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Backcalculating the Incidence of Infection with COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess. J Clin Med 2020; 9:jcm9030657. [PMID: 32121356 PMCID: PMC7141332 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030657] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2020] [Accepted: 02/25/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
To understand the time-dependent risk of infection on a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, I estimated the incidence of infection with novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The epidemic curve of a total of 199 confirmed cases was drawn, classifying individuals into passengers with and without close contact and crew members. A backcalculation method was employed to estimate the incidence of infection. The peak time of infection was seen for the time period from 2 to 4 February 2020, and the incidence has abruptly declined afterwards. The estimated number of new infections among passengers without close contact was very small from 5 February on which a movement restriction policy was imposed. Without the intervention from 5 February, it was predicted that the cumulative incidence with and without close contact would have been as large as 1373 (95% CI: 570, 2176) and 766 (95% CI: 587, 946) cases, respectively, while these were kept to be 102 and 47 cases, respectively. Based on an analysis of illness onset data on board, the risk of infection among passengers without close contact was considered to be very limited. Movement restriction greatly reduced the number of infections from 5 February onwards.
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Munasinghe L, Asai Y, Nishiura H. Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey. Theor Biol Med Model 2019; 16:6. [PMID: 30890153 PMCID: PMC6425701 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2018] [Accepted: 03/05/2019] [Indexed: 01/30/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Social contact surveys can greatly help in quantifying the heterogeneous patterns of infectious disease transmission. The present study aimed to conduct a contact survey in Japan, offering estimates of contact by age and location and validating a social contact matrix using a seroepidemiological dataset of influenza. METHODS An internet-based questionnaire survey was conducted, covering all 47 prefectures in Japan and including a total of 1476 households. The social contact matrix was quantified assuming reciprocity and using the maximum likelihood method. By imposing several parametric assumptions for the next-generation matrix, the empirical seroepidemiological data of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was analysed and we estimated the basic reproduction number, R0. RESULTS In total, the reported number of contacts on weekdays was 10,682 whereas that on weekend days was 8867. Strong age-dependent assortativity was identified. Forty percent of weekday contacts took place at schools or workplaces, but that declined to 14% on weekends. Accounting for the age-dependent heterogeneity with the known social contact matrix, the minimum value of the Akaike information criterion was obtained and R0 was estimated at 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.49). CONCLUSIONS Survey datasets will be useful for parameterizing the heterogeneous transmission model of various directly transmitted infectious diseases in Japan. Age-dependent assortativity, especially among children, along with numerous contacts in school settings on weekdays implies the potential effectiveness of school closure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lankeshwara Munasinghe
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Yusuke Asai
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Nishiura
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Sapporo, Japan
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Sai A, Kong N. Characterising model dynamics using sparse grid interpolation: Parameter estimation of cholera. JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS 2018; 12:731-745. [PMID: 30112974 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2018.1508761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2017] [Accepted: 07/29/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Sparse grid interpolation is a popular numerical discretization technique for the treatment of high dimensional, multivariate problems. We consider the case of using time-series data to calibrate epidemiological models from both phenomenological and mechanistic perspectives using this computational tool. By capturing the dynamics underlying both global and local spaces, our algorithm identifies potentially optimal regions of the parameter space and directs computational effort towards resolving the dynamics and resulting fits of these regions. We demonstrate how sparse grid interpolants can be effectively deployed to fit available data and discriminate between competing hypotheses to explain the current cholera epidemic in Yemen.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aditya Sai
- a Weldon School of Biomedical Engineering , Purdue University , West Lafayette , IN , USA
| | - Nan Kong
- a Weldon School of Biomedical Engineering , Purdue University , West Lafayette , IN , USA
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15
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Sakamoto Y, Yamaguchi T, Yamamoto N, Nishiura H. Modeling the elevated risk of yellow fever among travelers visiting Brazil, 2018. Theor Biol Med Model 2018; 15:9. [PMID: 29961429 PMCID: PMC6027565 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-018-0081-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2018] [Accepted: 06/11/2018] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Unlike the epidemic of yellow fever from 2016 to 17 in Brazil mostly restricted to the States of Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo, the epidemic from 2017 to 18 mainly involved São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro and resulted in multiple international disseminations. To understand mechanisms behind this observation, the present study analyzed the distribution of imported cases from Brazil, 2018. METHODS A statistical model was employed to capture the risk of importing yellow fever by returning international travelers from Brazil. We estimated the relative risk of importation among travelers by the extent of wealth measured by GDP per capita and the relative risk obtained by random assignment of travelers' destination within Brazil by the relative population size. RESULTS Upper-half wealthier countries had 2.1 to 3.4 times greater risk of importation than remainders. Even among countries with lower half of GDP per capita, the risk of importation was 2.5 to 2.8 times greater than assuming that the risk of travelers' infection within Brazil is determined by the regional population size. CONCLUSIONS Travelers from wealthier countries were at elevated risk of yellow fever, allowing us to speculate that travelers' local destination and behavior at high risk of infection are likely to act as a key determinant of the heterogeneous risk of importation. It is advised to inform travelers over the ongoing geographic foci of transmission, and if it appears unavoidable to visit tourist destination that has the history of producing imported cases, travelers must be strongly advised to receive vaccination in advance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yohei Sakamoto
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638 Japan
- CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan
| | - Takayuki Yamaguchi
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638 Japan
- CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan
| | - Nao Yamamoto
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638 Japan
- CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan
| | - Hiroshi Nishiura
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638 Japan
- CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan
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16
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Cholera: an overview with reference to the Yemen epidemic. Front Med 2018; 13:213-228. [DOI: 10.1007/s11684-018-0631-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2017] [Accepted: 12/18/2017] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
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17
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Matsuyama R, Akhmetzhanov AR, Endo A, Lee H, Yamaguchi T, Tsuzuki S, Nishiura H. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017. PeerJ 2018; 6:e4583. [PMID: 29629244 PMCID: PMC5885970 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2018] [Accepted: 03/14/2018] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background A Rohingya refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number, R0. Methods A renewal process model was devised to estimate the R0 and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method. Results R0 ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median estimate at 7.2. R0 was positively correlated with ascertainment rates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that R0 would become smaller with greater variance of the generation time. Discussion Estimated R0 was broadly consistent with published estimate from endemic data, indicating that the vaccination coverage of 86% has to be satisfied to prevent the epidemic by means of mass vaccination. LHS was particularly useful in the setting of a refugee camp in which the background health status is poorly quantified.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryota Matsuyama
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.,Japan Science and Technology Agency, Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology, Saitama, Japan
| | - Andrei R Akhmetzhanov
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.,Japan Science and Technology Agency, Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology, Saitama, Japan
| | - Akira Endo
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.,London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, University of London, London, UK
| | - Hyojung Lee
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.,Japan Science and Technology Agency, Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology, Saitama, Japan
| | - Takayuki Yamaguchi
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.,Japan Science and Technology Agency, Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology, Saitama, Japan
| | - Shinya Tsuzuki
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.,Japan Science and Technology Agency, Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology, Saitama, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Nishiura
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.,Japan Science and Technology Agency, Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology, Saitama, Japan
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18
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Petersen E, Petrosillo N, Koopmans M. Emerging infections-an increasingly important topic: review by the Emerging Infections Task Force. Clin Microbiol Infect 2018; 24:369-375. [PMID: 29155018 PMCID: PMC7129920 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmi.2017.10.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2017] [Revised: 10/20/2017] [Accepted: 10/30/2017] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This paper review trends in emerging infections and the need for increased clinical and laboratory surveillance. METHODS Factors that contributed to the emergence of recent outbreaks have been reviewed. Known, major outbreaks over the past two decades were reviewed. RESULTS We identified at least four major drivers of emergent infections: (i) increasing density of the human population; (ii) stress from farmland expansion on the environment; (iii) globalization of the food market and manufacturing; (iv) environmental contamination. The factors creating new opportunities for emerging infections include: (i) population growth; (ii) spread in health care facilities; (iii) an ageing population; (iv) international travel; (v) changing and expanding vector habitats. CONCLUSIONS Emerging infections are unpredictable. In this review we argue that to discover new trends in infectious diseases, the clinicians have to look for the unusual and unexpected and ensure proper diagnostics and that syndromic surveillance must be supported by highly specialized laboratory services. Mathematical modeling has not been able to predict outbreaks More emphasis on the biology of evolution is needed. EID rarely stands out as unusual, and the continuous pressure on health care budgets forces clinicians and laboratories to prioritize their diagnostic work-up to common and treatable conditions. The European Society for Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, ESCMID, has established an Emerging Infections Task Force, EITaF, to strengthen the activities of the society on emerging infections and ensure that emerging infections is included in differential diagnostic considerations in everyday clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Petersen
- Institute for Clinical Medicine, University of Aarhus, Denmark and Department of Infectious Diseases, The Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman.
| | - N Petrosillo
- Clinical and Research Department, National Institute for Infectious Diseases 'Lazzaro Spallanzani', IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - M Koopmans
- Viroscience Department, Erasmus University of Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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19
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Nishiura H, Tsuzuki S, Asai Y. Forecasting the size and peak of cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2017. Future Microbiol 2018; 13:399-402. [PMID: 29464968 DOI: 10.2217/fmb-2017-0244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Hiroshi Nishiura
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan
| | - Shinya Tsuzuki
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan
| | - Yusuke Asai
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kitaku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan
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