Presentation and outcome of Middle East respiratory syndrome in Saudi intensive care unit patients

Developments in treatment for middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

INTRODUCTION

An important respiratory pathogen that has led to multiple hospital outbreaks both inside and outside of the Arabian Peninsula is the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Given the elevated case fatality rate, there exists a pressing requirement for efficacious therapeutic agents.

AREAS COVERED

This is an updated review of the developments in MERS treatment approaches. Using databases like PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, Scopus, and Google Scholar, a thorough search was carried out utilizing keywords like 'MERS,' 'MERS-CoV,' and 'Middle East respiratory syndrome' in conjunction with 'treatment' or 'therapy' from Jan 2012 to Feb 2024.

EXPERT OPINION

MERS-CoV is a highly pathogenic respiratory infection that emerged in 2012 and continues to pose a significant public health threat. Despite ongoing efforts to control the spread of MERS-CoV, there is currently no specific antiviral treatment available. While many agents have been tested both in vivo and in vitro, none of them have been thoroughly examined in extensive clinical trials. Only case reports, case series, or cohort studies have been made available as clinical studies. However, there is a limited number of randomized-controlled trials. Because cases are irregular and sporadic, conducting a large prospective randomized trials for establishing an efficacious treatment might be difficult.

Prognostic value of oxygen saturation index trajectory phenotypes on ICU mortality in mechanically ventilated patients: a multi-database retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Heterogeneity among critically ill patients undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) treatment could result in high mortality rates. Currently, there are no well-established indicators to help identify patients with a poor prognosis in advance, which limits physicians' ability to provide personalized treatment. This study aimed to investigate the association of oxygen saturation index (OSI) trajectory phenotypes with intensive care unit (ICU) mortality and ventilation-free days (VFDs) from a dynamic and longitudinal perspective.

METHODS

A group-based trajectory model was used to identify the OSI-trajectory phenotypes. Associations between the OSI-trajectory phenotypes and ICU mortality were analyzed using doubly robust analyses. Then, a predictive model was constructed to distinguish patients with poor prognosis phenotypes.

RESULTS

Four OSI-trajectory phenotypes were identified in 3378 patients: low-level stable, ascending, descending, and high-level stable. Patients with the high-level stable phenotype had the highest mortality and fewest VFDs. The doubly robust estimation, after adjusting for unbalanced covariates in a model using the XGBoost method for generating propensity scores, revealed that both high-level stable and ascending phenotypes were associated with higher mortality rates (odds ratio [OR]: 1.422, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.246-1.623; OR: 1.097, 95% CI 1.027-1.172, respectively), while the descending phenotype showed similar ICU mortality rates to the low-level stable phenotype (odds ratio [OR] 0.986, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.940-1.035). The predictive model could help identify patients with ascending or high-level stable phenotypes at an early stage (area under the curve [AUC] in the training dataset: 0.851 [0.827-0.875]; AUC in the validation dataset: 0.743 [0.709-0.777]).

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic OSI-trajectory phenotypes were closely related to the mortality of ICU patients requiring IMV treatment and might be a useful prognostic indicator in critically ill patients.

Reconsideration of interferon treatment for viral diseases: Lessons from SARS, MERS, and COVID-19

Periodic pandemics of coronavirus (CoV)-related pneumonia have been a major challenging issue since the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002 and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012. The ongoing pandemic of CoV disease (COVID-19) poses a substantial threat to public health. As for the treatment options, only limited antiviral agents have been approved hitherto, and clinicians mainly focus on currently available drugs including the conventional antiviral interferons (IFNs). In clinical practice, IFNs, when used either alone or in combination with ribavirin and/or lopinavir/ritonavir, have shown promising outcomes, to some extent, in SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV treatment. Although the efficacy and safety of IFNs in COVID-19 treatment remain unclear, their possible use merits further evaluation. We present a review that summarizes current evidence of IFN treatment for COVID-19 and elaborates on other challenges in terms of the timing of IFN treatment initiation, treatment duration, and IFN type to be used. The review findings suggested that IFN acts by directly inhibiting viral replication and activating immune cell subsets. However, there is a lack of well-designed and controlled clinical trials providing firm evidence for the efficacy or safety of IFN therapy for CoVs. Additionally, critically ill patients with multiple immunosuppression-associated comorbidities may not benefit from IFN therapy, necessitating screening of those patients who would most benefit from IFN treatment.

COVID-19 pandemic-related depression and anxiety under lockdown: The chain mediating effect of self-efficacy and perceived stress

Objective

In early March 2022, the highly contagious Omicron variant rapidly emerged in Shanghai. This study aimed to explore the prevalence and associated factors of depression and anxiety in isolated or quarantined populations under lockdown.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted between May 12 and 25, 2022. The depressive and anxiety symptoms, perceived stress, self-efficacy and perceived social support in the 167 participants under isolated or quarantined were examined using the Patient Health Questionnaires-9 (PHQ-9), the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), the Perceived Stress Scale-10 (PSS-10), the General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSES) and the Perceived Social Support Scale (PSSS). Data on demographic information were also collected.

Findings

The prevalence of depression and anxiety in isolated or quarantined populations was estimated to be 12 and 10.8%, respectively. Higher education level, being healthcare workers, being infected, longer duration of segregation and higher perceived stress level were identified as risk factors for depression and anxiety. Furthermore, the relationship between perceived social support and depression (anxiety) was mediated not only by perceived stress but also the chain of self-efficacy and perceived stress.

Conclusion

Being infected, higher education level, longer duration of segregation and higher perceived stress were associated with higher levels of depression and anxiety among isolated or quarantined populations under lockdown. The formulation of psychological strategies that promote one's perceived social support and self-efficacy as well as reduce perceived stress is supposed to be drawn.

The Effectiveness of a Four-Week Digital Physiotherapy Intervention to Improve Functional Capacity and Adherence to Intervention in Patients with Long COVID-19

Long COVID-19 has been defined as the condition occurring in individuals with a history of probable or confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, with related symptoms lasting at least 2 months and not explainable by an alternative diagnosis. The practice of digital physiotherapy presents itself as a promising complementary treatment method to standard physiotherapy, playing a key role in the recovery of function in subjects who have passed the disease and who maintain some symptomatology over time. The aims of this research are to explore the effect of a digital physiotherapy intervention on functional recovery in patients diagnosed with Long COVID-19 and to identify the level of adherence to the treatment carried out. A quasi-experimental pre-post study assessed initially and at the end of the 4-week intervention the functional capacity (1-min STS and SPPB) and the adherence (software) of a total of 32 participants. After the 4-week digital physiotherapy practice intervention with an individualised and customise exercise programme, a statistically significant improvement was observed (p < 0.05) with a small to medium effect size, high adherence rates and values above the minimal clinically important difference (MCID). We consider our intervention feasible, safe and consistent with our objectives. However, further randomised clinical trials and studies with larger samples are needed to draw extrapolable conclusions. Trial registration NCT04742946.

Increased complications of COVID-19 in people with cardiovascular disease: Role of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) dysregulation

The rapid spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has had a dramatic negative impact on public health and economies worldwide. Recent studies on COVID-19 complications and mortality rates suggest that there is a higher prevalence in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) patients. Past investigations on the associations between pre-existing CVDs and susceptibility to coronavirus infections including SARS-CoV and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), have demonstrated similar results. However, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This has impeded adequate risk stratification and treatment strategies for CVD patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections. Generally, dysregulation of the expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) and the counter regulator, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is a hallmark of cardiovascular risk and CVD. ACE2 is the main host receptor for SARS-CoV-2. Although further studies are required, dysfunction of ACE2 after virus binding and dysregulation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) signaling may worsen the outcomes of people affected by COVID-19 and with preexisting CVD. Here, we review the current knowledge and outline the gaps related to the relationship between CVD and COVID-19 with a focus on the RAAS. Improved understanding of the mechanisms regulating viral entry and the role of RAAS may direct future research with the potential to improve the prevention and management of COVID-19.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

The past two decades have witnessed the emergence of three zoonotic coronaviruses which have jumped species to cause lethal disease in humans: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 1 (SARS-CoV-1), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and SARS-CoV-2. MERS-CoV emerged in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and the origins of MERS-CoV are not fully understood. Genomic analysis indicates it originated in bats and transmitted to camels. Human-to-human transmission occurs in varying frequency, being highest in healthcare environment and to a lesser degree in the community and among family members. Several nosocomial outbreaks of human-to-human transmission have occurred, the largest in Riyadh and Jeddah in 2014 and South Korea in 2015. MERS-CoV remains a high-threat pathogen identified by World Health Organization as a priority pathogen because it causes severe disease that has a high mortality rate, epidemic potential, and no medical countermeasures. MERS-CoV has been identified in dromedaries in several countries in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. MERS-CoV-2 causes a wide range of clinical presentations, although the respiratory system is predominantly affected. There are no specific antiviral treatments, although recent trials indicate that combination antivirals may be useful in severely ill patients. Diagnosing MERS-CoV early and implementation infection control measures are critical to preventing hospital-associated outbreaks. Preventing MERS relies on avoiding unpasteurized or uncooked animal products, practicing safe hygiene habits in health care settings and around dromedaries, community education and awareness training for health workers, as well as implementing effective control measures. Effective vaccines for MERS-COV are urgently needed but still under development.

Controversies’ clarification regarding ribavirin efficacy in measles and coronaviruses: Comprehensive therapeutic approach strictly tailored to COVID-19 disease stages

BACKGROUND

Ribavirin is a broad-spectrum nucleoside antiviral drug with multimodal mechanisms of action, which supports its longevity and quality as a clinical resource. It has been widely administered for measles and coronavirus infections. Despite the large amount of data concerning the use of ribavirin alone or in combination for measles, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks, the conclusions of these studies have been contradictory. Underlying reasons for these discrepancies include possible study design inaccuracies and failures and misinterpretations of data, and these potential confounds should be addressed.

AIM

To determine the confounding factors of ribavirin treatment studies and propose a therapeutic scheme for COVID-19.

METHODS

PubMed database was searched over a period of five decades utilizing the terms “ribavirin” alone or combined with other compounds in measles, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and COVID-19 infections. The literature search was performed and described according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Articles were considered eligible when they reported on ribavirin dose regimens and/or specified outcomes concerning its efficacy and/or possible adverse-effects. In vitro and animal studies were also retrieved. A chapter on ribavirin’s pharmacology was included as well.

RESULTS

In addition to the difficulties and pressures of an emerging pandemic, there is the burden of designing and conducting well-organized, double-blind, randomized controlled trials. Many studies have succumbed to specific pitfalls, one of which was identified in naturally ribavirin-resistant Vero cell lines in in vitro studies. Other pitfalls include study design inconsistent with the well-established clinical course of disease; inappropriate pharmacology of applied treatments; and the misinterpretation of study results with misconceived generalizations. A comprehensive treatment for COVID-19 is proposed, documented by thorough, long-term investigation of ribavirin regimens in coronavirus infections.

CONCLUSION

A comprehensive treatment strictly tailored to distinct disease stages was proposed based upon studies on ribavirin and coronavirus infections.

Nursing Care for People with Chronic Diseases and Pulmonary Infection by Coronavirus: An Integrative Review

Objective: To identify the implications, for Nursing, of pulmonary infections by coronavirus in people with chronic non-communicable diseases and to propose actions for care. Materials and method: A literature review, with a search for primary studies in the Biblioteca Regional Virtual de Saúde, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, National Library of Medicine and Scopus databases, from March 15th to March 30th, 2020, in Portuguese, English, and Spanish, with a quantitative and qualitative approach, in adults with chronic non-communicable diseases with respiratory infection by viruses of the coronavirus family, from 2010 to 2020. Results: A total of 11 articles were analyzed, which made it possible to identify guidelines for Nursing actions at the community and hospital levels and in critical care; among the care actions proposed for people with chronic diseases are education in health, encouragement to control the disease, immunization and lifestyle change, monitoring of suspected and confirmed cases, and use of masks in public environments. Conclusions: The study highlights the role of Nursing at all health care levels and the possibilities for learning and improving care actions through the use of evidence obtained from previous experiences.

Global prevalence and determinants of mortality among patients with COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The challenge of COVID-19 is very high globally due to a lack of proven treatment and the complexity of its transmission. The prevalence of in-hospital mortality among patients with COVID-19 was very high which ranged from 1 to 52% of hospital admission. The prevalence of mortality among intensive care patients with COVID-19 was very high which ranged from 6% to 86% of admitted patients.

METHODS

A three-stage search strategy was conducted on PubMed/Medline; Science direct Cochrane Library. The Heterogeneity among the included studies was checked with forest plot, χ2 test, I2 test, and the p-values. Publication bias was checked with a funnel plot and the objective diagnostic test was conducted with Egger's correlation, Begg's regression tests.

RESULT

The Meta-Analysis revealed that the pooled prevalence of in-hospital mortality in patients with coronavirus disease was 15% (95% CI: 13 to 17). Prevalence of in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 was strongly related to different factors. Patients with Acute respiratory distress syndrome were eight times more likely to die as compared to those who didn't have, RR = 7.99(95% CI: 4.9 to 13).

CONCLUSION

The review revealed that more than fifteen percent of patients admitted to the hospital with coronavirus died. This presages the health care stakeholders to manage morbidity and mortality among patients with coronavirus through the mobilization of adequate resources and skilled health care providers.

REGISTRATION

This systematic review and meta-analysis was registered in research registry with UIN of reviewregistry1093.

Telerehabilitation Intervention in Patients with COVID-19 after Hospital Discharge to Improve Functional Capacity and Quality of Life. Study Protocol for a Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial

COVID-19 can cause important sequels in the respiratory system and frequently presents loss of strength, dyspnea, polyneuropathies and multi-organic affectation. Physiotherapy interventions acquire a fundamental role in the recovery of the functions and the quality of life. Regarding the recovery phases after hospital discharge, the current evidence available is very preliminary. Telerehabilitation is presented as a promising complementary treatment method to standard physiotherapy. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of a personalized telerehabilitation intervention after discharge from hospital for the improvement of functional capacity and quality of life compared to a program of health education and/or care in a rehabilitation center. As secondary objectives, to identify the satisfaction and perception of patients with the telerehabilitation intervention and the presence of barriers to its implementation, as well as to evaluate the cost-effectiveness from the perspective of the health system. This study protocol will be carried out through a single blind multicenter randomized clinical trial in the south of Spain. We hypothesize that the implementation of a telerehabilitation program presents results not inferior to those obtained with the current standard intervention. If the hypothesis is confirmed, it would be an opportunity to define new policies and interventions to address this disease and its consequences. Trial registration NCT04742946.

Outcome of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in hematology and oncology patients: A case series in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is associated with a high fatality rate (34%), which is higher in the presence of co-morbidities. The aim of the current study was to assess the clinical course and the outcome in hematological or oncological malignancy cases, diagnosed with MERS-CoV.

METHODS

This is a case series of hematological /oncological cases, diagnosed with MERS-CoV, in a tertiary care setting in 2015. The cases were identified based on the World Health Organization (WHO) MERS-CoV case definition. The demographic, clinical, and outcome data were retrieved from the patients' medical charts and electronic health records.

RESULTS

In total, nine hematological or oncological cases were identified, diagnosed with MERS-CoV. The baseline malignant condition was hematological malignancy in seven patients, as well as colon cancer and osteosarcoma in one patient each. Six (67%) patients were male. The median age was 65 years (range 16-80 years). Co-morbidities included chronic kidney disease (n = 3.33%), diabetes mellitus (n = 3.33%), and hypertension (n = 2.22%). The presenting symptoms were shortness of breath (n = 6.66%), fever (n = 5.55%), cough (n = 2.22%), and diarrhea (n = 2.22%). Chest x-rays indicated bilateral infiltrates in 6 patients (66%). The PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test was repeated in six patients to confirm the diagnosis. The mortality rate was 100%, and the median time to death was 26 days (range 15-77 days).

CONCLUSION

MERS-CoV infection in this small cohort of hematology or oncology patients has a 100% mortality rate, regardless of the status of the underlying disease. The confirmation of the diagnosis may require repeated testing. Additional studies are required to verify the findings and to elucidate the disease pathogenesis in cancer patients.

Clinical features and prognostic factors of critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Daegu, South Korea: A multi-center retrospective study

To describe the clinical and demographic characteristics of critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Daegu, South Korea, and to explore the risk factors for in-hospital mortality in these patients.Retrospective cohort study of 110 critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU in Daegu, South Korea, between February 18 and April 5, 2020. The final date of follow-up was April 20, 2020.A total of 110 patient medical records were reviewed. The median age was 71 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 63-78 years). During the study period, 47 patients (42.7%) died in the hospital. The most common SARS-CoV-2 infection related complication was acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in 95 patients (86.4%). Of the 79 patients (71.8%) who received invasive mechanical ventilation, 46 (58.2%) received neuromuscular blockade injection, and 19 (24.1%) received ECMO treatment. All patients received antibiotic injection, 99 patients (90%) received hydroxychloroquine, 96 patients (87.3%) received lopinavir-ritonavir antiviral medication, and 14 patients (12.7%) received other antiviral agents, including darunavir-cobicistat and emtricitabine-tenofovir. In the multivariable logistic regression model, the odds ratio of in-hospital death was higher with APACHE II score (OR = 1.126; 95% CI = 1.014-1.252; P  = .027).The in-hospital mortality rate of critically ill patients with COVID-19 was approximately 40%. Higher APACHE II score at admission was an independent risk factor for death in these patients.

Convalescent plasma therapy for coronavirus infection: experience from MERS and application in COVID-19

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a very large number of infections and high number of mortality. There is no specific therapeutic options that are approved for clinical use. Administration of convalescent plasma as a possible therapy was used in the case of viral pneumonia including SARS and influenza. There have been multiple studies of COVID-19 patients utilizing convalescent plasma. These studies employed different dosage levels and different regiments, were observational and lacked control arms, and had variable outcomes. Two of these studies used plasma with anti-SARS-CoV-2 titers of >1:640 to >1:1000. A recent randomized controlled clinical trial showed no benefit of convalescent plasma in patients with severe diseases. However, the study was terminated early and thus further clinical trials are needed to show efficacy in patients with COVID-19 infection.

Prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus and Its Associated Unfavorable Outcomes in Patients With Acute Respiratory Syndromes Due to Coronaviruses Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Only 3 types of coronavirus cause aggressive respiratory disease in humans (MERS-Cov, SARS-Cov-1, and SARS-Cov-2). It has been reported higher infection rates and severe manifestations (ICU admission, need for mechanical ventilation, and death) in patients with comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus (DM). For this reason, this study aimed to determine the prevalence of diabetes comorbidity and its associated unfavorable health outcomes in patients with acute respiratory syndromes for coronavirus disease according to virus types.

METHODS

Systematic review of literature in Pubmed/Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane, and Scielo until April of 2020. We included cohort and cross-sectional studies with no restriction by language or geographical zone. The selection and extraction were undertaken by 2 reviewers, independently. The study quality was evaluated with Loney's instrument and data were synthesized by random effects model meta-analysis. The heterogeneity was quantified using an I 2 statistic. Funnel plot, Egger, and Begg tests were used to evaluate publication biases, and subgroups and sensitivity analyses were performed. Finally, we used the GRADE approach to assess the evidence certainty (PROSPERO: CRD42020178049).

RESULTS

We conducted the pooled analysis of 28 studies (n = 5960). The prevalence analysis according to virus type were 451.9 diabetes cases per 1000 infected patients (95% CI: 356.74-548.78; I 2 = 89.71%) in MERS-Cov; 90.38 per 1000 (95% CI: 67.17-118.38) in SARS-Cov-1; and 100.42 per 1000 (95% CI: 77.85, 125.26 I 2 = 67.94%) in SARS-Cov-2. The mortality rate were 36%, 6%, 10% and for MERS-Cov, SARS-Cov-1, and SARS-Cov-2, respectively. Due to the high risk of bias (75% of studies had very low quality), high heterogeneity (I 2 higher than 60%), and publication bias (for MERS-Cov studies), we down rate the certainty to very low.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of DM in patients with acute respiratory syndrome due to coronaviruses is high, predominantly with MERS-Cov infection. The unfavorable health outcomes are frequent in this subset of patients. Well-powered and population-based studies are needed, including detailed DM clinical profile (such as glycemic control, DM complications, and treatment regimens), comorbidities, and SARS-Cov-2 evolution to reevaluate the worldwide prevalence of this comorbidity and to typify clinical phenotypes with differential risk within the subpopulation of DM patients.

Epidemic and pandemic viral infections: impact on tuberculosis and the lung: A consensus by the World Association for Infectious Diseases and Immunological Disorders (WAidid), Global Tuberculosis Network (GTN), and members of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Study Group for Mycobacterial Infections (ESGMYC)

Major epidemics, including some that qualify as pandemics, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), HIV, influenza A (H1N1)pdm/09 and most recently COVID-19, affect the lung. Tuberculosis (TB) remains the top infectious disease killer, but apart from syndemic TB/HIV little is known regarding the interaction of viral epidemics and pandemics with TB. The aim of this consensus-based document is to describe the effects of viral infections resulting in epidemics and pandemics that affect the lung (MERS, SARS, HIV, influenza A (H1N1)pdm/09 and COVID-19) and their interactions with TB. A search of the scientific literature was performed. A writing committee of international experts including the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control Public Health Emergency (ECDC PHE) team, the World Association for Infectious Diseases and Immunological Disorders (WAidid), the Global Tuberculosis Network (GTN), and members of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Study Group for Mycobacterial Infections (ESGMYC) was established. Consensus was achieved after multiple rounds of revisions between the writing committee and a larger expert group. A Delphi process involving the core group of authors (excluding the ECDC PHE team) identified the areas requiring review/consensus, followed by a second round to refine the definitive consensus elements. The epidemiology and immunology of these viral infections and their interactions with TB are discussed with implications for diagnosis, treatment and prevention of airborne infections (infection control, viral containment and workplace safety). This consensus document represents a rapid and comprehensive summary on what is known on the topic.

Early Stage Machine Learning-Based Prediction of US County Vulnerability to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 means that government and health services providers have little time to plan and design effective response policies. It is therefore important to quickly provide accurate predictions of how vulnerable geographic regions such as counties are to the spread of this virus.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to develop county-level prediction around near future disease movement for COVID-19 occurrences using publicly available data.

METHODS

We estimated county-level COVID-19 occurrences for the period March 14 to 31, 2020, based on data fused from multiple publicly available sources inclusive of health statistics, demographics, and geographical features. We developed a three-stage model using XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to quantify the probability of COVID-19 occurrence and estimate the number of potential occurrences for unaffected counties. Finally, these results were combined to predict the county-level risk. This risk was then used as an estimated after-five-day-vulnerability of the county.

RESULTS

The model predictions showed a sensitivity over 71% and specificity over 94% for models built using data from March 14 to 31, 2020. We found that population, population density, percentage of people aged >70 years, and prevalence of comorbidities play an important role in predicting COVID-19 occurrences. We observed a positive association at the county level between urbanicity and vulnerability to COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed model can be used for identification of vulnerable counties and potential data discrepancies. Limited testing facilities and delayed results introduce significant variation in reported cases, which produces a bias in the model.

Obese communities among the best predictors of COVID-19-related deaths

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the largest outbreak to strike the world since the Spanish flu in 1918. Visual examination of the world map shows a wide variation of death tolls between countries. The main goal of our series is to determine the best predictors of such discrepancy.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study in which the rate of COVID-19 deaths was correlated with each of the following independent variables: total tests per 1 million population, gross domestic product (GDP), average temperatures per country, ultraviolet index, median age, average BMI per country, food supply, Bacille Calmette-Guerin compulsory status, and passenger traffic.

RESULTS

BMI per country proved to be the second best predictor of death rate with an R value of 0.43, and GDP being the best predictor with R = 0.65.

CONCLUSION

This article shows a tight correlation between average BMI, food supply per country, and COVID-19-related deaths. Such predisposing factors might operate by upregulating the inflammation pathway in heavily struck countries, leading to easier triggering of the infamous cytokine storm syndrome. Obesity also increases cardiovascular and respiratory morbidities, which are coupled to increased ICU demand and deaths among infected cases.Video abstract: http://links.lww.com/CAEN/A25.

Spatial variability of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus survival rates and mortality hazard in Saudi Arabia, 2012–2019

About 83% of laboratory-confirmed Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) cases have emerged from Saudi Arabia, which has the highest overall mortality rate worldwide. This retrospective study assesses the impact of spatial/patient characteristics for 14-and 45-day MERS-CoV mortality using 2012–2019 data reported across Saudi regions and provinces. The Kaplan–Meier estimator was employed to estimate MERS-CoV survival rates, Cox proportional-hazards (CPH) models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for 14-and 45-day mortality predictors, and univariate local spatial autocorrelation and multivariate spatial clustering analyses were used to assess the spatial correlation. The 14-day, 45-day and overall mortality rates (with estimated survival rates) were 25.52% (70.20%), 32.35% (57.70%) and 37.30% (56.50%), respectively, with no significant rate variations between Saudi regions and provinces. Nationally, the CPH multivariate model identified that being elderly (age ≥ 61), being a non-healthcare worker (non-HCW), and having an underlying comorbidity were significantly related to 14-day mortality (HR = 2.10, 10.12 and 4.11, respectively; p < 0.0001). The 45-day mortality model identified similar risk factors but with an additional factor: patients aged 41–60 (HR = 1.44; p < 0.0001). Risk factors similar to those in the national model were observed in the Central, East and West regions and Riyadh, Makkah, Eastern, Madinah and Qassim provinces but with varying HRs. Spatial clusters of MERS-CoV mortality in the provinces were identified based on the risk factors (r2 = 0.85–0.97): Riyadh (Cluster 1), Eastern, Makkah and Qassim (Cluster 2), and other provinces in the north and south of the country (Cluster 3). The estimated HRs for the 14-and 45-day mortality varied spatially by province. For 45-day mortality, the highest HRs were found in Makkah (age ≥ 61 and non-HCWs), Riyadh (comorbidity) and Madinah (age 41–60). Coming from Makkah (HR = 1.30 and 1.27) or Qassim province (HR = 1.77 and 1.70) was independently related to higher 14-and 45-day mortality, respectively. MERS-CoV patient survival could be improved by implementing appropriate interventions for the elderly, those with comorbidities and non-HCW patients.

A comparative overview of COVID-19, MERS and SARS: Review article

Following the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), a third, highly pathogenic coronavirus, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) appearing at end of 2019 led to a pandemic, increased panic and attracted global attention. This review analyzes the epidemiology, etiology, clinical characteristics, treatment and sequelae of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to help provide direction for further studies that can help understand COVID-19.

Multi-organ Dysfunction in Patients with COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

This study aimed to provide systematic evidence for the association between multiorgan dysfunction and COVID-19 development. Several online databases were searched for articles published until May 13, 2020. Two investigators independently selected trials, extracted data, and evaluated the quality of individual trials. Single-arm meta-analysis was performed to summarize the clinical features of confirmed COVID-19 patients. Fixed effects meta-analysis was performed for clinically relevant parameters that were closely related to the patients' various organ functions. A total of 73 studies, including 171,108 patients, were included in this analysis. The overall incidence of severe COVID-19 and mortality were 24% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20%-28%) and 2% (95% CI, 1%-3%), respectively. Patients with hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 2.40; 95% CI, 2.08-2.78), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (OR = 3.54; 95% CI, 2.68-4.68), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR=3.70; 95% CI, 2.93-4.68), chronic liver disease (CLD) (OR=1.48; 95% CI, 1.09-2.01), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 1.84; 95% CI, 1.47-2.30), chronic cerebrovascular diseases (OR = 2.53; 95% CI, 1.84-3.49) and chronic gastrointestinal (GI) disease (OR = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.12-4.05) were more likely to develop severe COVID-19. Increased levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), creatine kinase (CK), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI), myoglobin, creatinine, urea, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and total bilirubin were highly associated with severe COVID-19. The incidence of acute organ injuries, including acute cardiac injury (ACI); (OR = 11.87; 95% CI, 7.64-18.46), acute kidney injury (AKI); (OR=10.25; 95% CI, 7.60-13.84), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); (OR=27.66; 95% CI, 18.58-41.18), and acute cerebrovascular diseases (OR=9.22; 95% CI, 1.61-52.72) was more common in patients with severe COVID-19 than in patients with non-severe COVID-19. Patients with a history of organ dysfunction are more susceptible to severe conditions. COVID-19 can aggravate an acute multiorgan injury.

A Comprehensive Review of Manifestations of Novel Coronaviruses in the Context of Deadly COVID-19 Global Pandemic

Since December 2019, the global pandemic caused by the highly infectious novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) has been rapidly spreading. As of April 2020, the outbreak has spread to over 210 countries, with over 2,400,000 confirmed cases and over 170,000 deaths.1 COVID-19 causes a severe pneumonia characterized by fever, cough and shortness of breath. Similar coronavirus outbreaks have occurred in the past causing severe pneumonia like COVID-19, most recently, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). However, over time, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were shown to cause extrapulmonary signs and symptoms including hepatitis, acute renal failure, encephalitis, myositis and gastroenteritis. Similarly, sporadic reports of COVID-19 related extrapulmonary manifestations emerge. Unfortunately, there is no comprehensive summary of the multiorgan manifestations of COVID-19, making it difficult for clinicians to quickly educate themselves about this highly contagious and deadly pathogen. What is more, is that SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are the closest humanity has come to combating something similar to COVID-19, however, there exists no comparison between the manifestations of any of these novel coronaviruses. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge of the manifestations of the novel coronaviruses SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and COVID-19, with a particular focus on the latter, and highlight their differences and similarities.

Effect of coronavirus infection on the human heart: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

The global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has highlighted the importance of understanding the cardiovascular implications of coronavirus infections, with more severe disease in those with cardiovascular co-morbidities, and resulting cardiac manifestations such as myocardial injury, arrhythmias, and heart failure.

DESIGN

A systematic review of the current knowledge on the effects of coronavirus infection on the cardiovascular system in humans was performed and results were summarized.

METHODS

Databases such as MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, Scopus, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, Chinese Knowledge Resource Integrated Database and Chinese Clinical Trial Registry were searched on 20 March 2020.

RESULTS

In total, 135 studies were included, involving severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome, coronavirus disease 2019 and other coronaviruses. Most were case reports, case series and cohort studies of poor to fair quality. In post-mortem examinations of subjects who died from infection, around half had virus identified in heart tissues in severe acute respiratory syndrome, but none in Middle East respiratory syndrome and coronavirus disease 2019. Cardiac manifestations reported include tachycardia, bradycardia, arrhythmias, and myocardial injury, secondary to both systemic infection and treatment. Cardiac injury and arrhythmias are more prevalent in coronavirus disease 2019, and elevated cardiac markers are associated with intensive care unit admission and death. In severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and coronavirus disease 2019, comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and heart disease are associated with intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and mortality. There were cases of misdiagnosis due to overlapping presentations of cardiovascular diseases and coronavirus infections, leading to hospital spread and delayed management of life-threatening conditions.

CONCLUSION

This review highlighted the ways in which coronaviruses affect cardiovascular function and interacts with pre-existing cardiovascular diseases.

Pharmacologic Treatments and Supportive Care for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome

Available animal and cell line models have suggested that specific therapeutics might be effective in treating Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). We conducted a systematic review of evidence for treatment with pharmacologic and supportive therapies. We developed a protocol and searched 5 databases for studies describing treatment of MERS and deaths in MERS patients. Risk of bias (RoB) was assessed by using ROBINS-I tool. We retrieved 3,660 unique citations; 20 observational studies met eligibility, and we studied 13 therapies. Most studies were at serious or critical RoB; no studies were at low RoB. One study, at moderate RoB, showed reduced mortality rates in severe MERS patients with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; no other studies showed a significant lifesaving benefit to any treatment. The existing literature on treatments for MERS is observational and at moderate to critical RoB. Clinical trials are needed to guide treatment decisions.

Comparison of confirmed COVID-19 with SARS and MERS cases - Clinical characteristics, laboratory findings, radiographic signs and outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Within this large‐scale study, we compared clinical symptoms, laboratory findings, radiographic signs, and outcomes of COVID‐19, SARS, and MERS to find unique features.

Method

We searched all relevant literature published up to February 28, 2020. Depending on the heterogeneity test, we used either random or fixed‐effect models to analyze the appropriateness of the pooled results. Study has been registered in the PROSPERO database (ID 176106).

Result

Overall 114 articles included in this study; 52 251 COVID‐19 confirmed patients (20 studies), 10 037 SARS (51 studies), and 8139 MERS patients (43 studies) were included. The most common symptom was fever; COVID‐19 (85.6%, P < .001), SARS (96%, P < .001), and MERS (74%, P < .001), respectively. Analysis showed that 84% of Covid‐19 patients, 86% of SARS patients, and 74.7% of MERS patients had an abnormal chest X‐ray. The mortality rate in COVID‐19 (5.6%, P < .001) was lower than SARS (13%, P < .001) and MERS (35%, P < .001) between all confirmed patients.

Conclusions

At the time of submission, the mortality rate in COVID‐19 confirmed cases is lower than in SARS‐ and MERS‐infected patients. Clinical outcomes and findings would be biased by reporting only confirmed cases, and this should be considered when interpreting the data.

Covid-19 and the digestive system

The novel coronavirus disease is currently causing a major pandemic. It is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a member of the Betacoronavirus genus that also includes the SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. While patients typically present with fever and a respiratory illness, some patients also report gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea, vomiting, and abdominal pain. Studies have identified the SARS-CoV-2 RNA in stool specimens of infected patients, and its viral receptor angiotensin converting enzyme 2 was found to be highly expressed in gastrointestinal epithelial cells. These suggest that SARS-CoV-2 can actively infect and replicate in the gastrointestinal tract. This has important implications to the disease management, transmission, and infection control. In this article, we review the important gastrointestinal aspects of the disease.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

Emerging infectious diseases continue to be of a significant importance worldwide with the potential to cause major outbreaks and global pandemics. In 2002, the world had witnessed the appearance of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus in China which disappeared abruptly within 6 months. About a decade later, a new and emerging novel coronavirus named the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was described in a patient from Saudi Arabia. These two coronaviruses shared multiple similarities in the epidemiology, clinical presentations, and posed challenges in its prevention and management. Seven years since its discovery, MERS-CoV continues to be a lethal zoonotic pathogen capable of causing severe pneumonia with high case fatality rates and the ability to cause large health care-associated outbreaks.

Critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Hong Kong: a multicentre retrospective observational cohort study

Objective

To report the first eight cases of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong, describing the treatments and supportive care they received and their 28-day outcomes.

Design

Multicentre retrospective observational cohort study.

Setting

Three multidisciplinary intensive care units (ICUs) in Hong Kong.

Participants

All adult critically ill patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs in Hong Kong between 22 January and 11 February 2020.

Main outcome measure

28-day mortality.

Results

Eight out of 49 patients with COVID-19 (16%) were admitted to Hong Kong ICUs during the study period. The median age was 64.5 years (range, 42–70) with a median admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score of 6 (IQR, 4–7). Six patients (75%) required mechanical ventilation, six patients (75%) required vasopressors and two (25%) required renal replacement therapy. None of the patients required prone ventilation, nitric oxide or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The median times to shock reversal and extubation were 9 and 11 days respectively. At 28 days, one patient (12%) had died and the remaining seven (88%) all survived to ICU discharge. Only one of the survivors (14%) still required oxygen at 28 days.

Conclusion

Critically ill patients with COVID-19 often require a moderate duration of mechanical ventilation and vasopressor support. Most of these patients recover and survive to ICU discharge with supportive care using lung protective ventilation strategies, avoiding excess fluids, screening and treating bacterial co-infection, and timely intubation. Lower rather than upper respiratory tract viral burden correlates with clinical severity of illness.

Coronaviruses and gastrointestinal symptoms: an old liaison for the new SARS-CoV-2

The coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has caused a pandemic with more than 600,000 deaths to date. It is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a member of the beta-coronavirus genus that also includes SARS and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS). While the typical presentation is given by respiratory symptoms and fever, some patients also report gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain. Several studies have identified the SARS-CoV-2 RNA in stool specimens of infected patients, and its viral receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is highly expressed in enterocytes. In this short review, we report the frequency of gastrointestinal symptoms in infected patients and suggest possible implications for disease management, transmission, and infection control.

Rate of Intensive Care Unit admission and outcomes among patients with coronavirus: A systematic review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The rate of ICU admission among patients with coronavirus varied from 3% to 100% and the mortality was as high as 86% of admitted patients. The objective of the systematic review was to investigate the rate of ICU admission, mortality, morbidity, and complications among patients with coronavirus.

METHODS

A comprehensive strategy was conducted in PubMed/Medline; Science direct and LILACS from December 2002 to May 2020 without language restriction. The Heterogeneity among the included studies was checked with forest plot, χ2 test, I2 test, and the p-values. All observational studies reporting rate of ICU admission, the prevalence of mortality and its determinants among ICU admitted patients with coronavirus were included and the rest were excluded.

RESULT

A total of 646 articles were identified from different databases and 50 articles were selected for evaluation. Thirty-seven Articles with 24983 participants were included. The rate of ICU admission was 32% (95% CI: 26 to 38, 37 studies and 32, 741 participants). The Meta-Analysis revealed that the pooled prevalence of mortality in patients with coronavirus disease in ICU was 39% (95% CI: 34 to 43, 37 studies and 24, 983 participants).

CONCLUSION

The Meta-Analysis revealed that approximately one-third of patients admitted to ICU with severe Coronavirus disease and more than thirty percent of patients admitted to ICU with a severe form of COVID-19 for better care died which warns the health care stakeholders to give attention to intensive care patients.

REGISTRATION

This Systematic review and Meta-Analysis was registered in Prospero international prospective register of systemic reviews (CRD42020177095) on April 9/2020.

A database of geopositioned Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus occurrences

As a World Health Organization Research and Development Blueprint priority pathogen, there is a need to better understand the geographic distribution of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and its potential to infect mammals and humans. This database documents cases of MERS-CoV globally, with specific attention paid to zoonotic transmission. An initial literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus; after screening articles according to the inclusion/exclusion criteria, a total of 208 sources were selected for extraction and geo-positioning. Each MERS-CoV occurrence was assigned one of the following classifications based upon published contextual information: index, unspecified, secondary, mammal, environmental, or imported. In total, this database is comprised of 861 unique geo-positioned MERS-CoV occurrences. The purpose of this article is to share a collated MERS-CoV database and extraction protocol that can be utilized in future mapping efforts for both MERS-CoV and other infectious diseases. More broadly, it may also provide useful data for the development of targeted MERS-CoV surveillance, which would prove invaluable in preventing future zoonotic spillover.

Measurement(s)	Middle East Respiratory Syndrome • geographic location
Technology Type(s)	digital curation
Factor Type(s)	geographic distribution of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) • year
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus
Sample Characteristic - Location	Earth (planet)

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11108801

Amotosalen and ultraviolet A light efficiently inactivate MERS-coronavirus in human platelet concentrates

Objective

This study aimed to assess the efficacy of the INTERCEPT™ Blood System [amotosalen/ultraviolet A (UVA) light] to reduce the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome‐Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) transmission by human platelet concentrates.

Background

Since 2012, more than 2425 MERS‐CoV human cases have been reported in 27 countries. The infection causes acute respiratory disease, which was responsible for 838 deaths in these countries, mainly in Saudi Arabia. Viral genomic RNA was detected in whole blood, serum and plasma of infected patients, raising concerns of the safety of blood supplies, especially in endemic areas.

Methods

Four apheresis platelet units in 100% plasma were inoculated with a clinical MERS‐CoV isolate. Spiked units were then treated with amotosalen/UVA to inactivate MERS‐CoV. Infectious and genomic viral titres were quantified by plaque assay and quantitative real‐time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT‐qPCR). Inactivated samples were successively passaged thrice on Vero E6 cells to exclude the presence of residual replication‐competent viral particles in inactivated platelets.

Results

Complete inactivation of MERS‐CoV in spiked platelet units was achieved by treatment with Amotosalen/UVA light with a mean log reduction of 4·48 ± 0·3. Passaging of the inactivated samples in Vero E6 showed no viral replication even after nine days of incubation and three passages. Viral genomic RNA titration in inactivated samples showed titres comparable to those in pre‐treatment samples.

Conclusion

Amotosalen and UVA light treatment of MERS‐CoV‐spiked platelet concentrates efficiently and completely inactivated MERS‐CoV infectivity (>4 logs), suggesting that such treatment could minimise the risk of transfusion‐related MERS‐CoV transmission.

Clinical outcomes among hospital patients with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection

Background

Mortality is high among patients with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection. We aimed to determine hospital mortality and the factors associated with it in a cohort of MERS-CoV patients.

Methods

We reviewed hospital records of confirmed cases (detection of virus by polymerase chain reaction from respiratory tract samples) of MERS-CoV patients (n = 63) admitted to Buraidah Central Hospital in Al-Qassim, Saudi Arabia between 2014 and 2017. We abstracted data on demography, vital signs, associated conditions presented on admission, pre-existing chronic diseases, treatment, and vital status. Bi-variate comparisons and multiple logistic regressions were the choice of data analyses.

Results

The mean age was 60 years (SD = 18.2); most patients were male (74.6%) and Saudi citizens (81%). All but two patients were treated with Ribavirin plus Interferon. Hospital mortality was 25.4%. Patients who were admitted with septic shock and/or organ failure were significantly more likely to die than patients who were admitted with pneumonia and/or acute respiratory distress syndrome (OR = 47.9, 95% CI = 3.9, 585.5, p-value 0.002). Age, sex, and presence of chronic conditions were not significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusion

Hospital mortality was 25%; septic shock/organ failure at admittance was a significant predictor of mortality.

A Systematic Review of therapeutic agents for the treatment of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

BACKGROUND

The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was first described in 2012 and attracted a great international attention due to multiple healthcare associated outbreaks. The disease carries a high case fatality rate of 34.5%, and there is no internationally or nationally recommended therapy.

METHOD

We searched MEDLINE, Science Direct, Embase and Scopus databases for relevant papers published till March 2019 describing in vitro, in vivo or human therapy of MERS.

RESULTS

Initial search identified 62 articles: 52 articles were from Medline, 6 from Embase, and 4 from Science Direct. Based on the inclusions and exclusions criteria, 30 articles were included in the final review and comprised: 22 in vitro studies, 8 studies utilizing animal models, 13 studies in humans, and one study included both in vitro and animal model. There are a few promising therapeutic agents on the horizon. The combination of lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon-beta- 1b showed excellent results in common marmosets and currently is in a randomized control trial. Ribavirin and interferon were the most widely used combination and experience comes from a number of observational studies. Although, the data are heterogenous, this combination might be of potential benefit and deserve further investigation. There were no randomized clinical trials to recommend specific therapy for the treatment of MERS-CoV infection. Only one such study is planned for randomization and is pending completion. The study is based on a combination of lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon-beta- 1b. A fully human polyclonal IgG antibody (SAB-301) was safe and well tolerated in healthy individuals and this agent may deserve further testing for efficacy.

CONCLUSION

Despite multiple studies in humans there is no consensus on the optimal therapy for MERS-CoV. Randomized clinical trials are needed and potential therapies should be evaluated only in such clinical trials. In order to further enhance the therapeutic aroma for MERS-CoV infection, repurposing old drugs against MERS-CoV is an interesting strategy and deserves further consideration and use in clinical settings.

Asymptomatic Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection: Extent and implications for infection control: A systematic review

Background

The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) emerged in 2012 and attracted an international attention as the virus caused multiple healthcare associated outbreaks. There are reports of the role of asymptomatic individuals in the transmission of MERS-CoV, however, the exact role is not known.

Method

The MEDLINE/PubMed and Scopus databases were searched for relevant papers published till August 2018 describing asymptomatic MERS-CoV infection.

Results

A total of 10 papers were retrieved and included in the final analysis and review. The extent of asymptomatic MERS infection had increased with change in the policy of testing asymptomatic contacts. In early cases in April 2012–October 2013, 12.5% were asymptomatic among 144 PCR laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV cases while in 2014 the proportion rose to 25.1% among 255 confirmed cases. The proportion of asymptomatic cases reported among pediatric confirmed MERS-CoV cases were higher (41.9%–81.8%). Overall, the detection rate of MERS infection among asymptomatic contacts was 1-3.9% in studies included in this review. Asymptomatic individuals were less likely to have underlying condition compared to fatal cases. Of particular interest is that most of the identified pediatric cases were asymptomatic with no clear explanation.

Conclusions

The proportion of asymptomatic MERS cases were detected with increasing frequency as the disease progressed overtime. Those patients were less likely to have comorbid disease and may contribute to the transmission of the virus.

MERS coronavirus outbreak: Implications for emerging viral infections

In September 2012, a novel coronavirus was isolated from a patient who died in Saudi Arabia after presenting with acute respiratory distress and acute kidney injury. Analysis revealed the disease to be due to a novel virus which was named Middle East Respiratory Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). There have been several MERS-CoV hospital outbreaks in KSA, continuing to the present day, and the disease has a mortality rate in excess of 35%. Since 2012, the World Health Organization has been informed of 2220 laboratory-confirmed cases resulting in at least 790 deaths. Cases have since arisen in 27 countries, including an outbreak in the Republic of Korea in 2015 in which 36 people died, but more than 80% of cases have occurred in Saudi Arabia.. Human-to-human transmission of MERS-CoV, particularly in healthcare settings, initially caused a ‘media panic’, however human-to-human transmission appears to require close contact and thus far the virus has not achieved epidemic potential. Zoonotic transmission is of significant importance and evidence is growing implicating the dromedary camel as the major animal host in spread of disease to humans. MERS-CoV is now included on the WHO list of priority blueprint diseases for which there which is an urgent need for accelerated research and development as they have the potential to cause a public health emergency while there is an absence of efficacious drugs and/or vaccines. In this review we highlight epidemiological, clinical, and infection control aspects of MERS-CoV as informed by the Saudi experience. Attention is given to recommended treatments and progress towards vaccine development.

•

2220 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV resulting in at least 790 deaths since 2012

•

MERS-CoV is on the WHO list of priority blueprint diseases

•

Zoonotic and human-to-human transmission modes need further clarification.

•

No specific therapy has yet been approved.

•

There is a need for well-controlled clinical trials on potential direct therapies.

Healthcare-associated infections: the hallmark of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus with review of the literature

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is capable of causing acute respiratory illness. Laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV cases may be asymptomatic, have mild disease, or have a life-threatening infection with a high case fatality rate. There are three patterns of transmission: sporadic community cases from presumed non-human exposure, family clusters arising from contact with an infected family index case, and healthcare-acquired infections among patients and from patients to healthcare workers. Healthcare-acquired MERS infection has become a well-known characteristic of the disease and a leading means of spread. The main factors contributing to healthcare-associated outbreaks include delayed recognition, inadequate infection control measures, inadequate triaging and isolation of suspected MERS or other respiratory illness patients, crowding, and patients remaining in the emergency department for many days. A review of the literature suggests that effective control of hospital outbreaks was accomplished in most instances by the application of proper infection control procedures. Prompt recognition, isolation and management of suspected cases are key factors for prevention of the spread of MERS. Repeated assessments of infection control and monitoring of corrective measures contribute to changing the course of an outbreak. Limiting the number of contacts and hospital visits are also important factors to decrease the spread of infection.

MERS transmission and risk factors: a systematic review

Background

Since Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) infection was first reported in 2012, many studies have analysed its transmissibility and severity. However, the methodology and results of these studies have varied, and there has been no systematic review of MERS. This study reviews the characteristics and associated risk factors of MERS.

Method

We searched international (PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane) and Korean databases (DBpia, KISS) for English- or Korean-language articles using the terms “MERS” and “Middle East respiratory syndrome”. Only human studies with > 20 participants were analysed to exclude studies with low representation. Epidemiologic studies with information on transmissibility and severity of MERS as well as studies containing MERS risk factors were included.

Result

A total of 59 studies were included. Most studies from Saudi Arabia reported higher mortality (22–69.2%) than those from South Korea (20.4%). While the R₀ value in Saudi Arabia was < 1 in all but one study, in South Korea, the R₀ value was 2.5–8.09 in the early stage and decreased to < 1 in the later stage. The incubation period was 4.5–5.2 days in Saudi Arabia and 6–7.8 days in South Korea. Duration from onset was 4–10 days to confirmation, 2.9–5.3 days to hospitalization, 11–17 days to death, and 14–20 days to discharge. Older age and concomitant disease were the most common factors related to MERS infection, severity, and mortality.

Conclusion

The transmissibility and severity of MERS differed by outbreak region and patient characteristics. Further studies assessing the risk of MERS should consider these factors.

MERS transmission and risk factors: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Since Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) infection was first reported in 2012, many studies have analysed its transmissibility and severity. However, the methodology and results of these studies have varied, and there has been no systematic review of MERS. This study reviews the characteristics and associated risk factors of MERS.

METHOD

We searched international (PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane) and Korean databases (DBpia, KISS) for English- or Korean-language articles using the terms "MERS" and "Middle East respiratory syndrome". Only human studies with > 20 participants were analysed to exclude studies with low representation. Epidemiologic studies with information on transmissibility and severity of MERS as well as studies containing MERS risk factors were included.

RESULT

A total of 59 studies were included. Most studies from Saudi Arabia reported higher mortality (22-69.2%) than those from South Korea (20.4%). While the R₀ value in Saudi Arabia was < 1 in all but one study, in South Korea, the R₀ value was 2.5-8.09 in the early stage and decreased to < 1 in the later stage. The incubation period was 4.5-5.2 days in Saudi Arabia and 6-7.8 days in South Korea. Duration from onset was 4-10 days to confirmation, 2.9-5.3 days to hospitalization, 11-17 days to death, and 14-20 days to discharge. Older age and concomitant disease were the most common factors related to MERS infection, severity, and mortality.

CONCLUSION

The transmissibility and severity of MERS differed by outbreak region and patient characteristics. Further studies assessing the risk of MERS should consider these factors.

Treatment of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome with a combination of lopinavir-ritonavir and interferon-β1b (MIRACLE trial): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background

It had been more than 5 years since the first case of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus infection (MERS-CoV) was recorded, but no specific treatment has been investigated in randomized clinical trials. Results from in vitro and animal studies suggest that a combination of lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon-β1b (IFN-β1b) may be effective against MERS-CoV. The aim of this study is to investigate the efficacy of treatment with a combination of lopinavir/ritonavir and recombinant IFN-β1b provided with standard supportive care, compared to treatment with placebo provided with standard supportive care in patients with laboratory-confirmed MERS requiring hospital admission.

Methods

The protocol is prepared in accordance with the SPIRIT (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) guidelines. Hospitalized adult patients with laboratory-confirmed MERS will be enrolled in this recursive, two-stage, group sequential, multicenter, placebo-controlled, double-blind randomized controlled trial. The trial is initially designed to include 2 two-stage components. The first two-stage component is designed to adjust sample size and determine futility stopping, but not efficacy stopping. The second two-stage component is designed to determine efficacy stopping and possibly readjustment of sample size. The primary outcome is 90-day mortality.

Discussion

This will be the first randomized controlled trial of a potential treatment for MERS. The study is sponsored by King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Enrollment for this study began in November 2016, and has enrolled thirteen patients as of Jan 24-2018.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT02845843. Registered on 27 July 2016.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-017-2427-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estimating survival rates in MERS-CoV patients 14 and 45 days after experiencing symptoms and determining the differences in survival rates by demographic data, disease characteristics and regions: a worldwide study

Although Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has a recorded 5 years of circulation in 27 countries worldwide, there is no international study to assess whether there is variation in mortality by region. Neither has there been a comprehensive study detailing how the disease characteristics of MERS-CoV influence mortality in patients presenting symptoms. This study aimed to assess how region, patient and disease characteristics influence 14- and 45-day mortality in MERS patients. The author utilised publically available data on MERS-CoV. The study included 883 MERS patients reported between 5 January 2015 and 10 March 2017. Data on patient and disease characteristics were collected. The mean age at MERS-CoV diagnosis was 54.3 years: 69.1% were male, and 86.7% of the cases were reported from Saudi Arabia. About 40% of MERS patients studied were over the age of 60. The study estimated 14- and 45-day survival rates after initial onset of symptoms: 83.67% and 65.9%, respectively. Saudi Arabian MERS patients exhibited 4.1 and 5.0 times higher 14-day (adjusted hazard risk (aHR) = 4.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.012-16.921) and 45-day (aHR = 5.0; 95% CI 1.856-13.581) mortality risk compared with MERS patients in the Republic of Korea or other countries. Similarly, Middle Eastern MERS patients showed 5.3 and 4.1 times higher 14-day (aHR = 5.3; 95% CI 1.070-25.902) and 45-day (aHR = 4.1; 95% CI 1.288-113.076) mortality risk compared with MERS patients in the Republic of Korea or other countries. The results demonstrated a link between mortality and geography, disease and patient factors such as regions, symptoms, source of infections, underlying medical conditions, modes of transmission, non-healthcare workers and those of older age. Educational programmes, access to healthcare and early diagnosis could be implemented as modifiable factors to reduce the higher mortality rates in MERS patients.

Inactivation of Middle East respiratory syndrome-coronavirus in human plasma using amotosalen and ultraviolet A light

BACKGROUND

Middle East respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) is a novel zoonotic pathogen. Although the potential for MERS‐CoV transmission through blood transfusion is not clear, MERS‐CoV was recognized as a pathogen of concern for the safety of the blood supply especially after its detection in whole blood, serum, and plasma of infected individuals. Here we investigated the efficacy of amotosalen and ultraviolet A light (UVA) to inactivate MERS‐CoV in fresh‐frozen plasma (FFP).

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Pooled FFP units were spiked with a recent clinical MERS‐CoV isolate. Infectious and genomic viral titers were determined in plasma before and after inactivation with amotosalen/UVA treatment by plaque assay and reverse transcription–quantitative polymerase chain reaction, respectively. In addition, residual replicating or live virus after inactivation was examined by passaging in the permissive Vero E6 cells.

RESULTS

The mean MERS‐CoV infectious titer in pretreatment samples was 4.67 ± 0.25 log plaque‐forming units (pfu)/mL, which was reduced to undetectable levels after inactivation with amotosalen/UVA demonstrating a mean log reduction of more than 4.67 ± 0.25 pfu/mL. Furthermore, inoculation of inactivated plasma on Vero E6 cells did not result in any cytopathic effect (CPE) even after 7 days of incubation and three consecutive passages, nor the detection of MERS RNA compared to pretreatment samples which showed complete CPE within 2 to 3 days postinoculation and log viral RNA titer ranging from 9.48 to 10.22 copies/mL in all three passages.

CONCLUSION

Our data show that amotosalen/UVA treatment is a potent and effective way to inactivate MERS‐CoV infectious particles in FFP to undetectable levels and to minimize the risk of any possible transfusion‐related MERS‐CoV transmission.

MERS, SARS and other coronaviruses as causes of pneumonia

Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) have been considered to be relatively harmless respiratory pathogens in the past. However, after the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and emergence of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), HCoVs have received worldwide attention as important pathogens in respiratory tract infection. This review focuses on the epidemiology, pathogenesis and clinical characteristics among SARS-coronaviruses (CoV), MERS-CoV and other HCoV infections.

Influenza is more common than Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) among hospitalized adult Saudi patients

BACKGROUND

Since the initial description of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), we adopted a systematic process of screening patients admitted with community acquired pneumonia. Here, we report the result of the surveillance activity in a general hospital in Saudi Arabia over a four year period.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All admitted patients with community acquired pneumonia from 2012 to 2016 were tested for MERS-CoV. In addition, testing for influenza viruses was carried out starting April 2015.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 2657 patients were screened for MERS-CoV and only 20 (0.74%) tested positive. From January 2015 to December 2016, a total of 1644 patients were tested for both MERS-CoV and influenza. None of the patients tested positive for MERS-CoV and 271 (16.4%) were positive for influenza. The detected influenza viruses were Influenza A (107, 6.5%), pandemic 2009 H1N1 (n = 120, 7.3%), and Influenza B (n = 44, 2.7%). Pandemic H1N1 was the most common influenza in 2015 with a peak in peaked October to December and influenza A other than H1N1 was more common in 2016 with a peak in August and then October to December.

CONCLUSIONS

MERS-CoV was a rare cause of community acquired pneumonia and other viral causes including influenza were much more common. Thus, admitted patients are potentially manageable with Oseltamivir or Zanamivir therapy.

The predictors of 3- and 30-day mortality in 660 MERS-CoV patients

Background

The mortality rate of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) patients is a major challenge in all healthcare systems worldwide. Because the MERS-CoV risk-standardized mortality rates are currently unavailable in the literature, the author concentrated on developing a method to estimate the risk-standardized mortality rates using MERS-CoV 3- and 30-day mortality measures.

Methods

MERS-CoV data in Saudi Arabia is publicly reported and made available through the Saudi Ministry of Health (SMOH) website. The author studied 660 MERS-CoV patients who were reported by the SMOH between December 2, 2014 and November 12, 2016. The data gathered contained basic demographic information (age, gender, and nationality), healthcare worker, source of infection, pre-existing illness, symptomatic, severity of illness, and regions in Saudi Arabia. The status and date of mortality were also reported. Cox-proportional hazard (CPH) models were applied to estimate the hazard ratios for the predictors of 3- and 30-day mortality.

Results

3-day, 30-day, and overall mortality were found to be 13.8%, 28.3%, and 29.8%, respectively. According to CPH, multivariate predictors of 3-day mortality were elderly, non-healthcare workers, illness severity, and hospital-acquired infections (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) =1.7; 8.8; 6.5; and 2.8, respectively). Multivariate predictors of 30-day mortality were elderly, non-healthcare workers, pre-existing illness, severity of illness, and hospital-acquired infections (aHR =1.7; 19.2; 2.1; 3.7; and 2.9, respectively).

Conclusions

Several factors were identified that could influence mortality outcomes at 3 days and 30 days, including age (elderly), non-healthcare workers, severity of illness, and hospital-acquired infections. The findings can serve as a guide for healthcare practitioners by appropriately identifying and managing potential patients at high risk of death.

A review of candidate therapies for Middle East respiratory syndrome from a molecular perspective

There have been 2040 laboratory-confirmed cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 27 countries, with a mortality rate of 34.9 %. There is no specific therapy. The current therapies have mainly been adapted from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV) treatments, including broad-spectrum antibiotics, corticosteroids, interferons, ribavirin, lopinavir–ritonavir or mycophenolate mofetil, and have not been subject to well-organized clinical trials. The development of specific therapies and vaccines is therefore urgently required. We examine existing and potential therapies and vaccines from a molecular perspective. These include viral S protein targeting; inhibitors of host proteases, including TMPRSS2, cathepsin L and furin protease, and of viral M(pro) and the PL(pro) proteases; convalescent plasma; and vaccine candidates. The Medline database was searched using combinations and variations of terms, including ‘Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus’, ‘MERS-CoV’, ‘SARS’, ‘therapy’, ‘molecular’, ‘vaccine’, ‘prophylactic’, ‘S protein’, ‘DPP4’, ‘heptad repeat’, ‘protease’, ‘inhibitor’, ‘anti-viral’, ‘broad-spectrum’, ‘interferon’, ‘convalescent plasma’, ‘lopinavir ritonavir’, ‘antibodies’, ‘antiviral peptides’ and ‘live attenuated viruses’. There are many options for the development of MERS-CoV-specific therapies. Currently, MERS-CoV is not considered to have pandemic potential. However, the high mortality rate and potential for mutations that could increase transmissibility give urgency to the search for direct, effective therapies. Well-designed and controlled clinical trials are needed, both for existing therapies and for prospective direct therapies.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: five years later

INTRODUCTION

In the past five years, there have been 1,936 laboratory-confirmed cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 27 countries, with a mortality rate of 35.6%. Most cases have arisen in the Middle East, particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however there was a large hospital-associated outbreak in the Republic of Korea in 2015. Exposure to dromedary camels has been recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a risk factor in primary cases, but the exact mechanisms of transmission are not clear. Rigorous application of nationally defined infection prevention and control measures has reduced the levels of healthcare facility-associated outbreaks. There is currently no approved specific therapy or vaccine available. Areas covered: This review presents an overview of MERS-CoV within the last five years, with a particular emphasis on the key areas of transmission, infection control and prevention, and therapies and vaccines. Expert commentary: MERS-CoV remains a significant threat to public health as transmission mechanisms are still not completely understood. There is the potential for mutations that could increase viral transmission and/or virulence, and zoonotic host range. The high mortality rate highlights the need to expedite well-designed randomized clinical trials for direct, effective therapies and vaccines.

Dynamics of scientific publications on the MERS-CoV outbreaks in Saudi Arabia

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging disease with a relatively high case fatality rate. Most cases have been reported from Saudi Arabia, and the disease epidemic potential is considered to be limited. However, human-human transmission has occurred, usually in the context of healthcare facility-associated outbreaks. The scientific and medical community depends on timely publication of epidemiological information on emerging diseases during outbreaks to appropriately target public health responses. In this review, we considered the academic response to four MERS CoV outbreaks that occurred in Al-Hasa in 2013, Jeddah in 2014 and Riyadh in 2014 and 2015. We analysed 68 relevant epidemiology articles. For articles for which submission dates were available, six articles were submitted during the course of an outbreak. One article was published within a month of the Al-Hasa outbreak, and one each was accepted during the Jeddah and Riyadh outbreaks. MERS-CoV epidemiology articles were cited more frequently than articles on other subjects in the same journal issues. Thus, most epidemiology articles on MERS-CoV were published with no preferential advantage over other articles. Collaboration of the research community and the scientific publishing industry is needed to facilitate timely publication of emerging infectious diseases.