Modelling climate change impact on the spatial distribution of fresh water snails hosting trematodes in Zimbabwe

Schistosomiasis transmission in Zimbabwe: Modelling based on machine learning

Zimbabwe, located in Southern Africa, faces a significant public health challenge due to schistosomiasis. We investigated this issue with emphasis on risk prediction of schistosomiasis for the entire population. To this end, we reviewed available data on schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe from a literature search covering the 1980-2022 period considering the potential impact of 26 environmental and socioeconomic variables obtained from public sources. We studied the population requiring praziquantel with regard to whether or not mass drug administration (MDA) had been regularly applied. Three machine-learning algorithms were tested for their ability to predict the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The findings revealed different roles of the 26 factors with respect to transmission and there were particular variations between Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni infections. We found that the top-five correlation factors, such as the past (rather than current) time, unsettled MDA implementation, constrained economy, high rainfall during the warmest season, and high annual precipitation were closely associated with higher S. haematobium prevalence, while lower elevation, high rainfall during the warmest season, steeper slope, past (rather than current) time, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month were rather related to higher S. mansoni prevalence. The random forest (RF) algorithm was considered as the formal best model construction method, with MAE = 0.108; RMSE = 0.143; and R2 = 0.517 for S. haematobium, and with the corresponding figures for S. mansoni being 0.053; 0.082; and 0.458. Based on this optimal model, the current total schistosomiasis prevalence in Zimbabwe under MDA implementation was 19.8%, with that of S. haematobium at 13.8% and that of S. mansoni at 7.1%, requiring annual MDA based on a population of 3,003,928. Without MDA, the current total schistosomiasis prevalence would be 23.2%, that of S. haematobium 17.1% and that of S. mansoni prevalence at 7.4%, requiring annual MDA based on a population of 3,521,466. The study reveals that MDA alone is insufficient for schistosomiasis elimination, especially that due to S. mansoni. This study predicts a moderate prevalence of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe, with its elimination requiring comprehensive control measures beyond the currently used strategies, including health education, snail control, population surveillance and environmental management.

Freshwater snail-borne parasitic diseases in Africa

BACKGROUND

Freshwater snails are the first obligatory intermediate hosts in the trematode life cycle. Several parasitic diseases transmitted by these snails are endemic in Africa, and their distribution closely follows that of the intermediate hosts. These diseases represent a major public health problem and cause significant socio-economic losses in Africa, particularly schistosomiasis and fascioliasis. In this review, we will describe the main roles of freshwater snails in the life cycle of trematode parasites, and the geographical distribution of these diseases in Africa. We will also discuss the different techniques for detecting parasitic infections in snails, as well as the various methods of controlling snails and the larval stages of parasites.

METHODS

We carried out a literature search for articles dealing with parasitic diseases transmitted by freshwater snail hosts in Africa. The search was conducted in databases such as PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar using various search terms combined by Boolean operators. Our search was limited to peer-reviewed articles less than 10 years old. Articles published to date in the fields of control of parasitic diseases transmitted by freshwater snails were included. Results were presented in narrative and in table format.

RESULTS

The results of the database search identified 1007 records. We included 84 studies in this review. These studies generally focused on freshwater snails and the diseases they transmit. We described the geographical distribution of 43 freshwater species belonging to nine snail families, as well as the parasites that infect them. Several methods for diagnosing parasites in their snail hosts have been described, including microscopic and molecular methods, as well as antibody and protein barcode-based techniques. Molluscicides have been described as the main strategy for snail control.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights several elements of knowledge about diseases transmitted by freshwater snails and their distribution. A good understanding of snail infection detection techniques and existing control methods is an essential component in adapting control strategies for these diseases.

Abundance, Distribution, and Diversity of Freshwater Snail and Prevalences of Their Infection by Cercaria of Fasciola gigantica and Schistosoma spp at Mayo-Vreck River, Far North Region of Cameroon

Malacological and parasitological studies were conducted from April 2020 to March 2021 to determine the abundance and distribution of molluscs and cercariae of Schistosoma spp and Fasciola gigantica. Collected molluscs are exposed to strong light to induce cercarial release. Mollusc densities were higher at station 1 (Gamak) than in station 8 (Patakai), with Bellamya unicolor and Biomphalaria pfeifferi more abundant and Bulinus truncatus, B. tropicus, and B. globosus less abundant. The overall prevalence of cercariae (19.87%) is higher in station 3 (Yaye orchard), station 9 (Gougni), station 4 (Madiogo), station 5 (Madiogo pasture), and station 6 (Ziam 3). It varies significantly between 15.76% in station 8 and 25.77% in station 3, between 8.48% in B. truncatus and 25.53% in B. globosus, and between 19.27% for cercariae of Schistosoma spp and 21.60% for those of F. gigantica. Cercarial emissions in L. natalensis and B. pfeifferi were higher in hot and cold dry seasons; on the other hand, cercarial emissions in B. globosus were higher in hot dry seasons (31.48%) and rainy seasons (23.38%). Emissions of cercariae from S. haematobium are related to areas of human activity and defecation, while those of F. gigantica in L. natalensis, Schistosoma haematobium in B. tropicus, and S. mansoni in B. pfeifferi are related to grazing areas. Mayo-Vreck is a site that favors the endemicity of fascioliasis and human schistosomiasis.

Impacts of sample ratio and size on the performance of random forest model to predict the potential distribution of snail habitats

Few studies have considered the impacts of sample size and sample ratio of presence and absence points on the results of random forest (RF) testing. We applied this technique for the prediction of the spatial distribution of snail habitats based on a total of 15,000 sample points (5,000 presence samples and 10,000 control points). RF models were built using seven different sample ratios (1:1, 1:2, 1:3, 1:4, 2:1, 3:1, and 4:1) and the optimal ratio was identified via the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic. The impact of sample size was compared by RF models under the optimal ratio and the optimal sample size. When the sample size was small, the sampling ratios of 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3 were significantly better than the sample ratios of 4:1 and 3:1 at all four levels of sample sizes (p<0.01) and there was no significant difference among the ratios of 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3 (p>0.05). The sample ratio of 1:2 appeared to be optimal for a relatively large sample size with the lowest quartile deviation. In addition, increasing the sample size produced a higher AUC and a smaller slope and the most suitable sample size found in this study was 2400 (AUC=0.96). This study provides a feasible idea to select an appropriate sample size and sample ratio for ecological niche modelling (ENM) and also provides a scientific basis for the selection of samples to accurately identify and predict snail habitat distributions.

Discovering new pathways toward integration between health and sustainable development goals with natural language processing and network science

BACKGROUND

Research on health and sustainable development is growing at a pace such that conventional literature review methods appear increasingly unable to synthesize all relevant evidence. This paper employs a novel combination of natural language processing (NLP) and network science techniques to address this problem and to answer two questions: (1) how is health thematically interconnected with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in global science? (2) What specific themes have emerged in research at the intersection between SDG 3 ("Good health and well-being") and other sustainability goals?

METHODS

After a descriptive analysis of the integration between SDGs in twenty years of global science (2001-2020) as indexed by dimensions.ai, we analyze abstracts of articles that are simultaneously relevant to SDG 3 and at least one other SDG (N = 27,928). We use the top2vec algorithm to discover topics in this corpus and measure semantic closeness between these topics. We then use network science methods to describe the network of substantive relationships between the topics and identify 'zipper themes', actionable domains of research and policy to co-advance health and other sustainability goals simultaneously.

RESULTS

We observe a clear increase in scientific research integrating SDG 3 and other SDGs since 2001, both in absolute and relative terms, especially on topics relevant to interconnections between health and SDGs 2 ("Zero hunger"), 4 ("Quality education"), and 11 ("Sustainable cities and communities"). We distill a network of 197 topics from literature on health and sustainable development, with 19 distinct network communities - areas of growing integration with potential to further bridge health and sustainability science and policy. Literature focused explicitly on the SDGs is highly central in this network, while topical overlaps between SDG 3 and the environmental SDGs (12-15) are under-developed.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis demonstrates the feasibility and promise of NLP and network science for synthesizing large amounts of health-related scientific literature and for suggesting novel research and policy domains to co-advance multiple SDGs. Many of the 'zipper themes' identified by our method resonate with the One Health perspective that human, animal, and plant health are closely interdependent. This and similar perspectives will help meet the challenge of 'rewiring' sustainability research to co-advance goals in health and sustainability.

Molecular detection of Fasciola, Schistosoma and Paramphistomum species from freshwater snails occurring in Gauteng and Free State provinces, South Africa

Trematodiases are diseases caused by snail-borne trematode parasites that infect both animals and humans. Fascioliasis, schistosomiasis and paramphistomosis are some of these diseases and they affect millions of livestock, leading to significant economic losses. The aim of the study was to document freshwater snails occurring in selected study sites in the Free State and Gauteng provinces as well as identify and detect larval trematodes that they harbour. Samples were collected from a total of five study sites within two provinces of South Africa. Morphological features were used to identify snail species and were further confirmed genetically by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. The larval trematodes were also detected by PCR, PCR-Restriction Length Fragment Polymorphism (PCR-RLFP), sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. A total of 887 freshwater snails were collected from Free State (n = 343) and Gauteng (n = 544). Five different genera of snails as well as species in the Succineidae family were documented. The snails in descending order of abundance were identified as: Physa (P.) spp. (51%), Succineidae spp. (20%), Galba (G.) truncatula (12%), Pseudosuccinea (Ps.) columella (10%), Planorbella (Pl.) duryi (6%) and Bulinus (B.) truncatus (1%). Approximately 272 DNA pools were created for genetic identification of snails and detection of trematode parasites. Schistosoma species were not detected from any of the snail species. A total prevalence of 46% was obtained for Fasciola hepatica in the identified snail species across all study sites. Overall, the highest prevalence of F. hepatica was obtained in Physa species (24%), whilst the lowest was observed in B. truncatus snails (1%). Forty three percent (43%) of the snail samples were PCR positive for Paramphistomum DNA. This is the first report of P. mexicana in South Africa. Fasciola hepatica was confirmed from all obtained snail species per study site. This is the first reported detection of F. hepatica in Pl. duryi and P. mexicana snails as well as the first confirmation of natural infection from P. acuta in South Africa.

Potential risk of colonization of Bulinus globosus in the mainland of China under climate change

Background

Bulinus globosus, the main intermediate snail host of Schistosoma haematobium. The increased contacts between Africa and China could even lead to large-scale dissemination of B. globosus in China. Temperature is the key factor affecting fresh-water snail transmission. This study predicted potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

Methods

We investigated minimum and maximum temperatures for B. globosus eggs, juveniles and adult snails kept under laboratory conditions to find the most suitable range by pinpointing the median effective temperatures (ET50). We also assessed the influence of temperature on spawning and estimated the accumulated temperature (AT). The average air temperatures between 1955 and 2019 in January and July, the coldest and hottest months in China, respectively, were collected from national meteorological monitoring stations and investigated in a geographic information system (GIS) using empirical Bayesian Kriging to evaluate the theoretical possibility for distribution of B. globosus in southern China based on temperature.

Results

The effective minimum temperature (ET50_min) for eggs, juveniles, adult snails and spawning were 8.5, 7.0, 7.0, 14.9 °C, respectively, with the corresponding maximum values (ET50_max) of 36.6, 40.5, 40.2 and 38.1 °C. The AT was calculated at 712.1 ± 64.9 °C·d. In 1955, the potential B. globosus distribution would have had a northern boundary stretching from the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region to southern Yunnan Province. Since then, this line has gradually moved northward.

Conclusions

Annual regeneration of B. globosus can be supported by the current climate conditions in the mainland of China, and a gradual expansion trend from south to north is shown in the study from 2015 to 2019. Thus, there is a potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

Graphical Abstract

Different Dynamics of Reproductive Cell Development in Oviparous Clausilia bidentata and Ovoviviparous Ruthenica filograna Snails

Most terrestrial snails are oviparous and only some are ovoviviparous. The physiology of the reproductive system and its activity in these two groups have received little attention. We compared the month-to-month dynamics of reproductive cell formation between two species of Clausiliidae snails: Ruthenica filograna (an ovoviviparous species) and Clausilia bidentata (an oviparous species). Our aim was to test the hypothesis that the seasonal activity of gametogenesis is determined by reproductive strategy (oviparity /ovoviviparity). The results showed that the frequency and number of reproductive cells in different stages varied month-to-month, within each species, and between the two species. Ruthenica filograna maintained its reproductive activity throughout the entire observation period, whereas the gonadal activity of C. bidentata changed with the seasons (it was temperature dependent). Our results are in tune with the hypothesis of Baur, that ovovivipary has some advantage over oviparity under harsher environmental conditions.

The Prospective Effects of Climate Change on Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: a Review

An increase in the annual daily temperature is documented and predicted to occur in the coming decades. Climate change has a direct effect and adverse impact on human health, as well as on multiple ecosystems and their species. The purpose of this paper is to review the effect of climate change on neglected tropical diseases including leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, and lymphatic filariasis in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). A list of engine web searches was done; 280 full-text records were assessed for eligibility. Only 48 original records were included within the final selection for the review study. Most research results show an alteration of neglected diseases related to climate change influencing specifically the Eastern Mediterranean Region, in addition to the expectation of more effects at the level of vectors and reservoir whether its vector transmission route or its egg hatching and replication or even the survival of adult worms in the coming years. At the same time, not all articles related to the region interpret the direct or indirect effect of climate variations on these specific diseases. Although few studies were found describing some of climate change effects on neglected tropical diseases in the region, still, the region lacks research funding, technical, and mathematical model expertise regarding the direct effect of climate change on the ecosystems of these neglected tropical diseases.

Drivers of diversification in freshwater gastropods vary over deep time

Unravelling the drivers of species diversification through geological time is of crucial importance for our understanding of long-term evolutionary processes. Numerous studies have proposed different sets of biotic and abiotic controls of speciation and extinction rates, but typically they were inferred for a single, long geological time frame. However, whether the impact of biotic and abiotic controls on diversification changes over time is poorly understood. Here, we use a large fossil dataset, a multivariate birth-death model and a comprehensive set of biotic and abiotic predictors, including a new index to quantify tectonic complexity, to estimate the drivers of diversification for European freshwater gastropods over the past 100 Myr. The effects of these factors on origination and extinction are estimated across the entire time frame as well as within sequential time windows of 20 Myr each. Our results find support for temporal heterogeneity in the factors associated with changes in diversification rates. While the factors impacting speciation and extinction rates vary considerably over time, diversity-dependence and topography are consistently important. Our study highlights that a high level of heterogeneity in diversification rates is best captured by incorporating time-varying effects of biotic and abiotic factors.

Opisthorchis viverrini and Strongyloides stercoralis mono- and co-infections: Bayesian geostatistical analysis in an endemic area, Thailand

Parasitic infections caused by Opisthorchis viverrini and Strongyloides stercoralis remain a major public health threat in the Greater Mekong Sub-region. An understanding of climate and other environmental influences on the geographical distribution and emergence of parasitic diseases is a crucial step to guide targeted control and prevention programs. A parasitological survey was conducted from 2008 to 2013 and included 12,554 individuals (age between 20 and 60 years) from 142 villages in five districts in Khon Kaen Province, Thailand. Geographical information systems, remote sensing technologies and a Bayesian geostatistical framework were used to develop models for O. viverrini and S. stercoralis mono- and co-infections in areas where both parasites are known to co-occur. The results indicate that male sex, increased age, altitude, precipitation, and land surface temperature have influenced the infection rate and geographical distribution of mono- and co-infections of O. viverrini and S. stercoralis in this area. Males were 6.69 times (95% CrI: 5.26-8.58) more likely to have O. viverrini - S. stercoralis co-infection. We observed that O. viverrini and S. stercoralis mono-infections display distinct spatial pattern, while co-infection is predicted in the center and southeast of the study area. The observed spatial clustering of O. viverrini and S. stercoralis provides valuable information for the spatial targeting of prevention interventions in this area.

The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a diverse group of diseases that continue to affect >1 billion people, with these diseases disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations and territories. Climate change is having an increasing impact on public health in tropical and subtropical areas and across the world and can affect disease distribution and transmission in potentially diverse ways. Improving our understanding of how climate change influences NTDs can help identify populations at risk to include in future public health interventions. Articles were identified by searching electronic databases for reports of climate change and NTDs between 1 January 2010 and 1 March 2020. Climate change may influence the emergence and re-emergence of multiple NTDs, particularly those that involve a vector or intermediate host for transmission. Although specific predictions are conflicting depending on the geographic area, the type of NTD and associated vectors and hosts, it is anticipated that multiple NTDs will have changes in their transmission period and geographic range and will likely encroach on regions and populations that have been previously unaffected. There is a need for improved surveillance and monitoring to identify areas of NTD incursion and emergence and include these in future public health interventions.

Climate change/variability and hydrological modelling studies in Zimbabwe: a review of progress and knowledge gaps

This paper reviews developments in climate science and hydrological modelling studies in Zimbabwe over the past 29 years in an effort to expose knowledge gaps within this research domain. We initially give a global and regional overview and then follow a systematic thematic approach in reviewing specifically online published, peer-reviewed journal articles on climate change/variability and hydrological modelling in Zimbabwe. The state and progress towards advanced integrated climate and hydrological modelling research are assessed, tracking benchmarks in the research methodologies (tools and techniques) used therein including geographic information systems and remote sensing. We present descriptive summaries of key findings, highlighting the main study themes (categories) and general conclusions arising from these studies while examining their implications for future climate and hydrological modelling research in Zimbabwe. Challenges associated with climate and hydrological modelling research in Zimbabwe are also briefly discussed and the main knowledge gaps in terms of research scope and methodologies employed in the reviewed studies also exposed. We conclude by presenting plausible potential areas of focus in updating and advancing scientific knowledge to better understand the climate-land use-hydrology nexus in Zimbabwe. While this paper is primarily relevant for researchers, the general findings are also important for policy-makers since it exposes potential areas for policy intervention or agenda setting in as far as climate and hydrology science research is concerned so as to effectively address pertinent questions in this domain in Zimbabwe.

The Effect of Climate Change and the Snail-Schistosome Cycle in Transmission and Bio-Control of Schistosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa

In the next century, global warming, due to changes in climatic factors, is expected to have an enormous influence on the interactions between pathogens and their hosts. Over the years, the rate at which vector-borne diseases and their transmission dynamics modify and develop has been shown to be highly dependent to a certain extent on changes in temperature and geographical distribution. Schistosomiasis has been recognized as a tropical and neglected vector-borne disease whose rate of infection has been predicted to be elevated worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa; the region currently with the highest proportion of people at risk, due to changes in climate. This review not only suggests the need to develop an efficient and effective model that will predict Schistosoma spp. population dynamics but seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of several current control strategies. The design of a framework model to predict and accommodate the future incidence of schistosomiasis in human population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is proposed. The impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission as well as the distribution of several freshwater snails responsible for the transmission of Schistosoma parasites in the region is also reviewed. Lastly, this article advocates for modelling several control mechanisms for schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa so as to tackle the re-infection of the disease, even after treating infected people with praziquantel, the first-line treatment drug for schistosomiasis.

Urogenital schistosomiasis and risk factors of infection in mothers and preschool children in an endemic district in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

To design appropriate schistosomiasis control programmes that include women and preschool-aged children (PSAC) it is essential to assess their disease profile and the risk factors predisposing them to infection. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis and the risk factors of infection among PSAC and their caregivers in an endemic area of Zimbabwe.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study involving screening for urogenital schistosomiasis infections and treatment of 860 participants [535 children aged ≤ 5 years and 325 caregivers (≥ 15 years)] was carried out in five communities, namely Chihuri, Mupfure, Chakondora, Nduna and Kaziro, in February 2016. Haematuria was recorded for each participant and urine filtration was performed to determine the presence and infection intensity of Schistosoma haematobium. A pre-tested questionnaire was administered to the caregivers seeking knowledge, practices and perceptions regarding schistosomiasis. Data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall 132 (15.4%) of the 860 participants had S. haematobium infections. Among these, 61 (18.7%) of the 325 caregivers and 71 (13.3%) of the 535 children were infected. The infection prevalence was significantly different between caregivers and PSAC (χ² = 4.7040, df = 1, P = 0.030). Children whose caregivers used river water for bathing were more likely to be infected compared to children whose caregivers used protected well water (OR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.3-3.7). The risks of being infected with schistosomiasis were higher in children whose caregivers were infected compared to children whose caregivers had no infection (AOR: 3.9, 95% CI: 1.7-8.6). In caregivers, those who bathed in river water were at higher risk of schistosomiasis infection compared to those who used water from a protected well (AOR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.4-6.4).

CONCLUSIONS

According to the World Health Organization guidelines, the observed overall prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis qualifies this area as a moderate risk area requiring mass chemotherapy once every two years. Water contact practices of caregivers, and their perceptions and knowledge regarding schistosomiasis are risk factors for infection in both themselves and PSAC. Thus, disease control efforts targeting caregivers or PSAC should include health education and provision of alternative clean and safe water sources.

Persistent establishment of a tropical disease in Europe: the preadaptation of schistosomes to overwinter

Background

Global changes promote the spread of infectious diseases worldwide. In this context, tropical urogenital schistosomiasis is now permanently established in Corsica since its first emergence in 2013. The local persistence of the tropical pathogens (schistosomes) responsible for urogenital schistosomiasis at such latitudes might be explained by (i) the presence of its intermediate host, the snail Bulinus truncatus, (ii) the recurrent local reseeding of schistosomes by their vertebrate hosts (either human or animal) every summer, and/or (iii) the maintenance and survival of schistosomes within their snail hosts over winter.

Methods

In this study we conducted an ecological experiment to assess the ability of temperate and tropical schistosome strains to survive in classical winter temperatures in Corsican rivers when infecting temperate (local) snail strains. We also quantified the ability of the schistosomes to complete their life-cycle post-overwintering when returned to classical summer water temperatures.

Results

Our results show that Mediterranean molluscs are locally adapted to winter conditions compared to tropical molluscs. Moreover, temperate and tropical schistosome strains equally survived the cold and produced viable offspring when returned to optimal temperatures. These results indicate that schistosomes can overwinter under temperate climates when infecting locally adapted snails and might partly explain the establishment and maintenance of schistosomes in Corsica from year to year.

Conclusions

The observed broader thermal range of schistosomes compared to that of their snail hosts was unexpected and clearly indicates that the spread and establishment of schistosomiasis in temperate countries relies primarily on the presence of the locally adapted snail host lineages, currently known to be present in France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece.

Identifying and Predicting the Geographical Distribution Patterns of Oncomelania hupensis

Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease endemic to the tropics and subtropics, whose distribution depends on snail prevalence as determined by climatic and environmental factors. Here, dynamic spatial and temporal patterns of Oncomelania hupensis distributions were quantified using general statistics, global Moran’s I, and standard deviation ellipses, with Maxent modeling used to predict the distribution of habitat areas suitable for this snail in Gong’an County, a severely affected region of Jianghan Plain, China, based on annual average temperature, humidity of the climate, soil type, normalized difference vegetation index, land use, ditch density, land surface temperature, and digital elevation model variables; each variable’s contribution was tested using the jackknife method. Several key results emerged. First, coverage area of O. hupensis had changed little from 2007 to 2012, with some cities, counties, and districts alternately increasing and decreasing, with ditch and bottomland being the main habitat types. Second, although it showed a weak spatial autocorrelation, changing negligibly, there was a significant east–west gradient in the O. hupensis habitat area. Third, 21.9% of Gong’an County’s area was at high risk of snail presence; and ditch density, temperature, elevation, and wetting index contributed most to their occurrence. Our findings and methods provide valuable and timely insight for the control, monitoring, and management of schistosomiasis in China.

Schistosomes, snails and climate change: Current trends and future expectations

The exact impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, a disease caused by a blood fluke that affects more than 250 million people mainly in tropical and subtropical countries, is currently unknown, but likely to vary with the snail-parasite species' specific ecologies and the spatio-temporal scale of investigation. Here, by means of a systematic review to identify studies reporting on impacts of climate change on the agents of schistosomiasis, we provide an updated synthesis of the current knowledge about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation. We found that, despite a recent increase in scientific studies that discuss the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, only a handful of reports have applied modelling and predictive forecasting that provide a quantitative estimate of potential outcomes. The volume and type of evidence associated with climate change responses were found to be variable across geographical regions and snail-parasite taxonomic groups. Indeed, the strongest evidence stems from the People's Republic of China pertaining to Schistosoma japonicum. Some evidence is also available from eastern Africa, mainly for Schistosoma mansoni. While studies focused on the northern and southern range margins for schistosomiasis indicate an increase in transmission range as the most likely outcome, there was less agreement about the direction of outcomes from the central and eastern parts of Africa. The current lack of consensus suggests that climate change is more likely to shift than to expand the geographic ranges of schistosomiasis. A comparison between the current geographical distributions and the thermo-physiological limitations of the two main African schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni) offered additional insights, and showed that both species already exist near their thermo-physiological niche boundaries. The African species both stand to move considerably out of their "thermal comfort zone" in a future, warmer Africa, but S. haematobium in particular is likely to experience less favourable climatic temperatures. The consequences for schistosomiasis transmission will, to a large extent, depend on the parasites and snails ability to adapt or move. Based on the identified geographical trends and knowledge gaps about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation, we propose to align efforts to close the current knowledge gaps and focus on areas considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change.

Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases

Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases.

The South-American distribution and southernmost record of Biomphalaria peregrina-a potential intermediate host of schistosomiasis

Schistosomiasis remains a major parasitic disease, endemic in large parts of South America. Five neotropical species of Biomphalaria have been found to act as intermediate hosts of Schistosoma mansoni in natural populations, while others have been shown to be susceptible in experimental infections, although not found infected in the field. Among these potential intermediate hosts, Biomphalaria peregrina represents the most widespread species in South America, with confirmed occurrence records from Venezuela to northern Patagonia. In this study, we report the southernmost record for the species at the Pinturas River, in southern Patagonia, which finding implies a southward reassessment of the limit for the known species of this genus. The identities of the individuals from this population were confirmed through morphological examination, and by means of two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and 16S-rRNA. With both markers, phylogenetic analyses were conducted in order to compare the genetic background of individuals from the Pinturas River with previously genetically characterized strains of B. peregrina from various South-American locations. In addition, we produced a potential distribution model of B. peregrina in South America and identified the environmental variables that best predict that distribution. The model was estimated through a maximum entropy algorithm and run with occurrence points obtained from several sources, including the scientific literature and international databases, along with climatic and hydrographic variables. Different phylogenetic analyses with either the COI or 16S-rRNA sequences did not conflict, but rather gave very similar topological organizations. Two major groups were identified, with sequences from the Pinturas River grouping together with haplotypes from subtropical and temperate regions. The model developed had a satisfactory performance for the study area. We observed that the areas with higher habitat suitability were found to be mainly linked to subtropical and temperate regions of South America between 15° and 45° south latitude, with different moderate- and low-suitability areas outside this range. We also identified the coldest temperatures as the main predictors of the potential distribution of this snail. Susceptibility surveys would be required to evaluate if southern populations of B. peregrina still retain their potential as intermediate hosts of S. mansoni.

Effect of temperature on the Bulinus globosus - Schistosoma haematobium system

Background

Given that increase in temperature may alter host-parasite relationships, the anticipated rise in temperature due to global warming might change transmission patterns of certain diseases. However, the extent to which this will happen is not well understood.

Methods

Using a host-parasite system involving Bulinus globosus and Schistosoma haematobium, we assessed the effect of temperature on snail fecundity, growth, survival and parasite development under laboratory conditions.

Results

Our results show that temperature may have a non-linear effect on snail fecundity and snail growth. Snails maintained at 15.5 °C and 36.0 °C did not produce egg masses while those maintained at 25.8 °C laid 344 and 105 more egg masses than snails at 31.0 °C and 21.2 °C, respectively. Attainment of patency led to a reduction in egg mass production among the snails. However, the reduction in fecundity for snails maintained at 21.2 °C occurred before snails started shedding cercariae. Parasite development was accelerated at high temperatures with snails maintained at 31.0 °C reaching patency after three weeks. Furthermore, snail growth rate was highest at 25.8 °C while it was inhibited at 15.5 °C and reduced at 31.0 °C. Increase in temperature increased snail mortality rates. Snails maintained at 36.0 °C had the shortest survival time while those maintained at 15.5 °C had the longest survival time.

Conclusions

We concluded that temperature influences fecunxdity, growth, survival and parasite development in the snail and thus dictates the time it takes the parasite to complete the life cycle. This has implications on transmission of schistosomiasis in the context of global warming.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-017-0260-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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